diff --git a/src/utils.py b/src/utils.py index c81f8901162f1c8b80a4d9e4fd1b6e23621a0c85..53ce8543a31a1d60be784a7f7852642689bfea51 100644 --- a/src/utils.py +++ b/src/utils.py @@ -59,6 +59,7 @@ MODEL_CONFIG = { "ttm-r2": ("ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2", "IBM", True, "pretrained"), "flowstate": ("ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-flowstate-r1", "IBM", True, "pretrained"), "citras-fm": ("hitachi-nlp/citras-fm", "Hitachi", True, "pretrained", "CITRAS-FM"), + "ts-icl": ("taharnbl/TS-ICL", "EDF-Lab", True, "pretrained", "TS-ICL"), # GluonTS Models "deepar": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"), "tft": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"), diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 32ec3c5f3a6e14211af100b838dc4f1281e7075f..ed417d8d8ff30798523991f6360ba05c26c4ae33 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,96.25000000000001,47.105140103596796,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,95.53571428571429,47.049179559947774,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,92.67857142857142,46.485472580621256,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,84.82142857142857,43.92623198246986,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,79.10714285714285,41.88927928450025,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,76.25,42.51579967639686,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,74.46428571428572,40.931171483779714,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.46428571428571,40.26605676264323,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.10714285714286,39.65417127595432,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,65.17857142857143,38.09940061802194,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,51.964285714285715,34.357611241199095,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.78571428571429,35.5798994200739,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 -FlowState,51.07142857142857,30.68598311802213,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,50.535714285714285,34.02528132692776,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,48.035714285714285,34.304846616783294,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 -TFT,47.94642857142857,34.39379489295074,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.85714285714286,34.444932595485724,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,45.535714285714285,30.890375949929528,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,44.46428571428571,31.182648441489537,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,40.17857142857143,28.99041616417205,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,35.89285714285714,25.641579380120593,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,29.64285714285714,21.217567102831968,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,23.303571428571427,12.457381191619765,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,20.80357142857143,13.156560456056853,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,15.446428571428573,9.008132945543156,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,15.178571428571427,6.832233363582574,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.5,-25.50199781747715,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.357142857142856,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.642857142857143,-32.85429098273796,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,96.20689655172414,47.105140103596796,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,95.6896551724138,47.049179559947774,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,92.75862068965517,46.485472580621256,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,85.0,43.92623198246986,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,79.13793103448276,41.88927928450025,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,76.03448275862068,42.51579967639686,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,74.48275862068967,40.931171483779714,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,68.96551724137933,39.65417127595432,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,68.62068965517241,40.26605676264323,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,66.55172413793105,40.023445008897305,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.65517241379311,38.09940061802194,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,50.689655172413794,34.357611241199095,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.689655172413794,35.5798994200739,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +FlowState,50.172413793103445,30.68598311802213,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,49.6551724137931,34.02528132692776,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,47.24137931034483,34.304846616783294,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +TFT,46.98275862068966,34.39379489295074,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,46.89655172413794,34.444932595485724,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,44.48275862068966,30.890375949929528,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,43.79310344827586,31.182648441489537,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,38.79310344827586,28.99041616417205,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,35.172413793103445,25.641579380120593,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,28.62068965517241,21.217567102831968,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,22.499999999999996,12.457381191619765,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,20.086206896551726,13.156560456056853,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,14.913793103448276,9.008132945543156,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,14.655172413793101,6.832233363582574,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.068965517241379,-25.50199781747715,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.482758620689655,-32.85429098273796,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 43c64fafb85a8b3d211453c0b06b2b176f65ff1d..55ab8f07a2646c9ae35de5e0bd3b49ad5236070d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,97.14285714285715,66.67609437659667,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,95.71428571428572,66.67229326421315,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,93.03571428571429,66.42835118245338,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,86.25,64.64905946685398,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,79.10714285714285,63.05875031595707,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,77.32142857142857,63.92789670076326,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,75.89285714285714,62.51740509789393,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,71.78571428571429,61.657338261486025,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,70.17857142857143,61.98663035039822,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.32142857142857,60.871565834690514,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,57.50000000000001,59.42246884042356,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.46428571428572,58.416109773202194,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 -FlowState,53.035714285714285,55.917373913965896,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,51.78571428571429,57.40397994436643,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,48.839285714285715,56.65838528437654,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 -TFT,48.57142857142857,56.101100728840805,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.46428571428572,56.64773521043558,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,44.28571428571429,54.85929046462743,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,43.57142857142858,54.882167458139385,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,38.48214285714286,50.20430422932948,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,30.89285714285715,46.25315473529981,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,24.999999999999996,40.369919076130486,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,24.375,34.1099179045811,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 -Stat. Ensemble,22.053571428571423,21.741616773476768,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,15.803571428571427,-26.853793282334813,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,11.607142857142858,-2.114517117703918,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.517857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 -Naive,7.8571428571428585,-102.14853947002402,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.1428571428571432,-110.24318719846286,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,97.24137931034484,66.67609437659667,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,95.86206896551725,66.67229326421315,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,93.27586206896551,66.42835118245338,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,86.37931034482759,64.64905946685398,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,79.13793103448276,63.05875031595707,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,77.24137931034484,63.92789670076326,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,76.03448275862068,62.51740509789393,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,71.3793103448276,61.657338261486025,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,69.13793103448278,61.98663035039822,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,67.41379310344826,61.929921677293606,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,66.72413793103448,60.871565834690514,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,56.20689655172415,59.42246884042356,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,53.44827586206896,58.416109773202194,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +FlowState,51.89655172413793,55.917373913965896,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,50.17241379310345,57.40397994436643,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,48.1896551724138,56.65838528437654,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +TFT,47.58620689655172,56.101100728840805,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.103448275862085,56.64773521043558,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,42.931034482758626,54.882167458139385,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,42.931034482758626,54.85929046462743,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,37.67241379310345,50.20430422932948,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,29.827586206896562,46.25315473529981,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,24.137931034482758,40.369919076130486,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,23.53448275862069,34.1099179045811,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +Stat. Ensemble,21.293103448275858,21.741616773476768,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,15.258620689655169,-26.853793282334813,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,11.206896551724139,-2.114517117703918,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.120689655172413,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.586206896551722,-102.14853947002402,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.0689655172413794,-110.24318719846286,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 2dbc7136abf5b085ee387ca5a2b09aa5ea35e9ff..1767bcac9ed4f152bde8379f5120fb88d2f670b6 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,97.14285714285715,53.71035361627254,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,95.5357142857143,53.096830919470946,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,93.39285714285714,52.69411150627982,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,86.42857142857142,50.191472774349634,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,78.92857142857144,50.57276323971893,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,78.03571428571429,47.09252281338565,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,73.57142857142858,47.10219495180865,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.28571428571428,46.55373683052376,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,68.21428571428572,46.24771958720855,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,64.64285714285715,44.520635260445665,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,56.96428571428572,46.210313482546184,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,55.5357142857143,44.39308253523333,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.214285714285715,42.79254856807111,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 -citras-fm,53.214285714285715,43.462794590251164,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,50.17857142857143,42.304181829008726,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,48.92857142857143,42.75818805959519,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.14285714285715,41.966358434053696,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,46.42857142857143,39.89366883509092,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 -TFT,45.089285714285715,37.9920627846737,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,36.07142857142857,34.58752644878078,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,35.535714285714285,31.125782577257844,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,28.214285714285715,27.03716130150796,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,20.80357142857143,17.59542897915567,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,17.767857142857142,16.5309827995087,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,14.017857142857142,5.6618608202705705,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,12.321428571428573,12.660865320459136,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.964285714285714,4.49837321934039,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.2857142857142865,-1.7537853153904326,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,97.24137931034484,53.71035361627254,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,95.68965517241381,53.096830919470946,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,93.62068965517241,52.69411150627982,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,86.72413793103448,50.191472774349634,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.31034482758622,50.57276323971893,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,78.10344827586206,47.09252281338565,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,73.62068965517241,47.10219495180865,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,69.3103448275862,46.55373683052376,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,67.93103448275863,46.24771958720855,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,64.48275862068965,45.92336879321229,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.31034482758622,44.520635260445665,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,55.86206896551725,46.210313482546184,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,55.00000000000001,44.39308253523333,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.241379310344826,42.79254856807111,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +citras-fm,51.72413793103448,43.462794590251164,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,49.310344827586206,42.304181829008726,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,48.10344827586207,42.75818805959519,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,46.0344827586207,41.966358434053696,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,45.17241379310345,39.89366883509092,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +TFT,44.22413793103448,37.9920627846737,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,34.82758620689655,34.58752644878078,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,34.6551724137931,31.125782577257844,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,27.241379310344826,27.03716130150796,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,20.086206896551726,17.59542897915567,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,17.155172413793103,16.5309827995087,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,13.534482758620689,5.6618608202705705,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,11.89655172413793,12.660865320459136,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.551724137931036,4.49837321934039,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,6.896551724137931,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.137931034482759,-1.7537853153904326,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv index f8f4cfc51686862f038f3f2500045efb506f000e..278690e81d5c91c37823d7a1d021e304f9f530d2 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,98.03571428571428,69.03469555605878,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,95.89285714285715,68.75529346896873,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,92.85714285714286,68.41066967488192,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,86.60714285714286,66.78327813931047,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.46428571428574,66.94397676250325,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,76.60714285714286,64.46135334372015,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,74.4642857142857,64.42603072886158,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,71.42857142857143,63.99709672683953,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,68.03571428571429,63.7537487246866,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.14285714285714,62.74382048246822,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,61.96428571428573,64.3601359782909,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,58.03571428571429,62.649468493586056,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.714285714285715,61.08750954950368,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 -citras-fm,52.5,60.978054225927835,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,50.803571428571445,59.71037333425973,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 -TFT,47.67857142857142,55.556509382143545,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,46.07142857142858,58.432181218600874,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,43.92857142857142,58.15816295699815,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,43.21428571428572,59.21372871831863,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,37.94642857142857,50.79429174981283,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,30.53571428571429,46.843426009989976,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,25.71428571428572,40.70772252024998,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,22.41071428571429,34.821696297938075,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 -Stat. Ensemble,19.375,22.34504540092107,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,12.946428571428573,-39.995047645386684,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,11.07142857142857,7.361982676335321,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.267857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 -Naive,6.964285714285714,-64.9788901369484,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.321428571428571,-71.7471743825873,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,98.10344827586206,69.03469555605878,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,96.0344827586207,68.75529346896873,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,93.10344827586208,68.41066967488192,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,86.72413793103448,66.78327813931047,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.00000000000003,66.94397676250325,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,76.72413793103449,64.46135334372015,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,74.6551724137931,64.42603072886158,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,71.0344827586207,63.99709672683953,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,67.58620689655173,63.7537487246866,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,66.72413793103449,63.67831559208952,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,66.37931034482759,62.74382048246822,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,60.689655172413815,64.3601359782909,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,57.24137931034482,62.649468493586056,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.310344827586206,61.08750954950368,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +citras-fm,50.86206896551724,60.978054225927835,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,49.91379310344829,59.71037333425973,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +TFT,46.724137931034484,55.556509382143545,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,45.17241379310345,58.432181218600874,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,42.41379310344827,58.15816295699815,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,41.896551724137936,59.21372871831863,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,36.98275862068966,50.79429174981283,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,29.48275862068966,46.843426009989976,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,24.82758620689655,40.70772252024998,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,21.63793103448276,34.821696297938075,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +Stat. Ensemble,18.70689655172414,22.34504540092107,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,12.5,-39.995047645386684,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,10.689655172413792,7.361982676335321,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.913793103448276,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.724137931034484,-64.9788901369484,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.2413793103448274,-71.7471743825873,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv index b32d86562ee4063454b699adce00d0908c75e0a4..c97ff7fcd88b7b25b2684a3ba289e619c13c6f46 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -8,12 +8,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.08,0.048,0.124 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.105,0.061,0.155 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.077,0.173 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.114,0.07,0.181 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.073,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.082,0.223 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.237,0.125,0.356 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.118,0.279 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.114,0.268 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.198,0.107,0.308 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.195,0.12,0.276 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.114,0.268 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.235,0.163,0.308 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.587 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.001,-0.012,0.011 @@ -25,12 +25,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.079,0.042,0.127 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.104,0.06,0.157 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.077,0.175 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.068,0.183 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.076,0.167 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.084,0.223 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.236,0.115,0.36 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.116,0.285 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.112,0.271 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.101,0.318 -Toto-2.0-1B,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.194,0.117,0.277 +Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.112,0.271 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.16,0.311 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.372,0.586 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.012,-0.024,-0.002 @@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.069,0.033,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.056,0.144 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.113,0.073,0.158 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.104,0.058,0.173 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.108,0.067,0.158 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.135,0.076,0.212 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.228,0.113,0.349 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.112,0.273 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.26 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.189,0.093,0.302 -Toto-2.0-313m,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.185,0.105,0.268 +Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.26 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.157,0.3 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.364,0.583 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.06,-0.096,-0.032 @@ -59,12 +59,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.025,-0.013,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.051,0.03,0.076 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.071,0.046,0.096 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.061,0.016,0.111 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.065,0.032,0.102 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.094,0.047,0.149 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.191,0.077,0.306 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.085,0.218 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.081,0.2 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.15,0.058,0.249 -Toto-2.0-22m,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.146,0.069,0.221 +Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.081,0.2 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.128,0.252 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.34,0.551 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.099,-0.157,-0.052 @@ -76,12 +76,12 @@ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.063,0.027 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.016,-0.007,0.04 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.037,0.014,0.059 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.02,0.072 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.031,0.005,0.057 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.061,0.027,0.114 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.162,0.041,0.286 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.057,0.196 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.052,0.164 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.119,0.024,0.226 -Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.034,0.185 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.052,0.164 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.094,0.224 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.528 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.087,-0.141,-0.05 @@ -93,12 +93,12 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.027,-0.006,0.067 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.047,0.011,0.093 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,0.009,0.071 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.042,0.003,0.089 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.022,0.128 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.171,0.067,0.29 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.124,0.056,0.204 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.168 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.052,0.222 -Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.065,0.189 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.168 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.101,0.231 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.331,0.534 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.117,-0.184,-0.065 @@ -110,12 +110,12 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.028,-0.072,0.006 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.021,0.008,0.034 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.011,-0.032,0.048 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.015,-0.017,0.042 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.017,0.083 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.148,0.032,0.269 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.1,0.053,0.168 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.05,0.134 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.014,0.197 -Toto-2.0-4m,PatchTST,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.101,0.019,0.165 +Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.05,0.134 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.092,0.201 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.409,0.315,0.516 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.141,-0.209,-0.084 @@ -127,12 +127,12 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.05,-0.103,-0.011 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.022,-0.035,-0.008 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.01,-0.061,0.036 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.006,-0.045,0.025 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.025,-0.006,0.072 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.009,0.25 TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.035,0.148 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.063,0.027,0.121 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.085,-0.01,0.184 -TiRex-2,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.081,-0.011,0.149 +TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.063,0.027,0.121 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.127,0.072,0.184 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.397,0.293,0.51 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.129,-0.22,-0.075 @@ -144,14 +144,31 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.077,-0.009 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.011,-0.05,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.01,-0.037,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.004,-0.033,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.0,0.077 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.138,0.03,0.267 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.7,0.499,0.9,0.09,0.019,0.183 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.115 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.095,0.024,0.186 -TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.091,0.037,0.142 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.115 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.136,0.068,0.199 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.318,0.501 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.207,-0.079 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.133,-0.2,-0.082 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.121,-0.188,-0.072 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.07,-0.114,-0.033 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.032,-0.061,-0.005 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.043,-0.098,-0.003 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.015,-0.044,0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.006,-0.025,0.043 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.004,-0.049,0.032 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.031,-0.001,0.077 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.135,0.008,0.274 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.086,0.02,0.183 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.091,-0.008,0.204 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,0.023,0.128 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.132,0.065,0.202 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.315,0.503 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.17,-0.287,-0.09 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.169,-0.287,-0.092 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.27,-0.083 @@ -161,12 +178,12 @@ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.146,-0.022 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.091,-0.017 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.026,-0.077,0.006 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.083,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.032,-0.084,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.107,-0.02,0.236 TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,-0.003,0.138 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.039,0.014,0.065 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.062,-0.03,0.149 -TiRex,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.058,-0.029,0.118 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.039,0.014,0.065 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.038,0.166 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.295,0.476 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.31,-0.554,-0.142 @@ -178,12 +195,12 @@ FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.206,-0.408,-0.072 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.173,-0.368,-0.033 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.149,-0.333,-0.009 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.16,-0.363,-0.031 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.156,-0.378,-0.008 FlowState,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.12,-0.308,0.02 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.056,-0.154,0.037 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.251,0.058 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.051,-0.155,0.045 -FlowState,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.055,-0.227,0.056 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.251,0.058 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.003,-0.136,0.112 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.307,0.147,0.442 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.241,-0.386,-0.134 @@ -195,31 +212,14 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.142,-0.256,-0.059 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.111,-0.202,-0.056 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.174,-0.036 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.501,-0.099,-0.223,-0.019 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.094,-0.223,-0.021 citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.159,0.003 citras-fm,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.053,-0.038,0.134 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.019,-0.102,0.052 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.005,-0.077,0.077 -citras-fm,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.001,-0.12,0.089 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.019,-0.102,0.052 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.05,-0.018,0.112 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.344,0.211,0.473 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.218,-0.367,-0.129 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.371,-0.126 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.352,-0.12 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.25,-0.088 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.202,-0.056 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.052 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.068,-0.137,-0.027 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.13,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.041,-0.07,-0.015 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.062,0.201 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.019,-0.054,0.093 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.024,-0.061,0.104 -Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.019,-0.064,0.081 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.425,0.825,0.068,-0.002,0.135 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.356,0.268,0.451 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.247,-0.446,-0.12 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.246,-0.466,-0.113 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.233,-0.432,-0.103 @@ -229,31 +229,31 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.286,-0.055 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.245,-0.014 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.093,-0.225,0.01 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.104,-0.229,-0.025 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.1,-0.256,0.008 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.066,-0.176,0.03 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.048,-0.047,0.134 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.005,-0.084,0.072 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.024,-0.116,0.057 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,PatchTST,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.004,-0.118,0.077 +TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.024,-0.116,0.057 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.045,-0.057,0.144 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.34,0.224,0.444 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.242,-0.381,-0.137 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.241,-0.383,-0.132 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.228,-0.366,-0.118 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.283,-0.074 -PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.131,-0.227,-0.035 -PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.234,-0.07 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-4m,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.112,-0.197,-0.02 -PatchTST,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.089,-0.174,0.01 -PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.1,-0.166,-0.038 -PatchTST,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.061,-0.134,0.028 -PatchTST,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.052,-0.059,0.185 -PatchTST,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.001,-0.098,0.107 -PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.02,-0.089,0.06 -PatchTST,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.004,-0.084,0.105 -PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.2,0.65,0.049,-0.039,0.137 -PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.343,0.237,0.456 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.218,-0.367,-0.129 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.371,-0.126 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.352,-0.12 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.25,-0.088 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.055 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.202,-0.056 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.052 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.068,-0.137,-0.027 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.13,-0.036 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.147,-0.023 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.041,-0.07,-0.015 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.062,0.201 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.019,-0.054,0.093 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.024,-0.061,0.104 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.425,0.825,0.068,-0.002,0.135 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.356,0.268,0.451 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.307,-0.445,-0.194 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.452,-0.191 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.429,-0.186 @@ -263,12 +263,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.3,-0.112 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.17,-0.252,-0.101 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.145,-0.225,-0.077 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.157,-0.248,-0.073 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.152,-0.253,-0.069 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.198,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.003,-0.127,0.12 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.053,-0.126,0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.575,-0.073,-0.156,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.048,-0.169,0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.052,-0.159,0.037 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.575,-0.073,-0.156,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.185,0.434 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.891,-1.422,-0.588 @@ -280,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.148,-0.496 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.693,-1.065,-0.459 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.657,-1.043,-0.414 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-1.003,-0.466 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.667,-1.014,-0.459 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.909,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.443,-0.793,-0.172 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.523,-0.897,-0.267 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.552,-0.822,-0.365 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.516,-0.797,-0.289 -Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.522,-0.838,-0.31 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.552,-0.822,-0.365 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.447,-0.766,-0.228 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv index 7fbe6c72c52511a2787f2529ba3d2dd2c55af779..ed20d6cc4cde474bff7a953f580893c5f9e107bd 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -8,12 +8,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.076,0.052,0.104 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.069,0.154 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.131,0.084,0.178 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.123,0.081,0.177 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.081,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.088,0.214 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.107,0.265 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.244,0.135,0.358 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.13,0.271 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.147,0.292 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.231,0.156,0.306 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.194,0.323 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.667,0.566,0.758 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.0,-0.012,0.014 @@ -25,12 +25,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.076,0.045,0.113 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.067,0.159 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.131,0.083,0.181 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.184 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.082,0.17 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.088,0.217 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.102,0.272 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.244,0.129,0.364 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.129,0.277 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.145,0.297 -Toto-2.0-1B,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.231,0.149,0.311 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.192,0.328 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.667,0.566,0.759 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.007,-0.021,0.005 @@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.069,0.038,0.106 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.104,0.064,0.149 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.124,0.08,0.171 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.117,0.072,0.179 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.165 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.084,0.212 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.173,0.093,0.266 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.238,0.125,0.356 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.124,0.271 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.144,0.287 -Toto-2.0-313m,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.225,0.146,0.305 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.19,0.318 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.664,0.561,0.758 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.061,-0.091,-0.036 @@ -59,12 +59,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.02,-0.019,0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.034,0.082 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.078,0.049,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.07,0.023,0.119 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.071,0.04,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.053,0.149 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.129,0.048,0.211 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.198,0.085,0.312 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.15,0.094,0.211 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.113,0.235 -Toto-2.0-22m,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.184,0.101,0.256 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.158,0.27 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.646,0.539,0.743 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.109,-0.162,-0.064 @@ -76,12 +76,12 @@ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.08,0.018 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.014,-0.008,0.036 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.037,0.012,0.06 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.025,0.076 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.03,0.004,0.056 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,0.022,0.104 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.09,0.005,0.175 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.162,0.04,0.284 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.064,0.169 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.079,0.202 -Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.055,0.221 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.182,0.124,0.236 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.52,0.73 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.082,-0.116,-0.055 @@ -93,12 +93,12 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.038,0.001,0.085 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.059,0.017,0.111 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.017,0.09 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.052,0.01,0.104 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.078,0.024,0.139 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.111,0.053,0.183 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.182,0.078,0.296 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.069,0.2 Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.085,0.229 -Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.168,0.103,0.231 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.134,0.261 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.533,0.735 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.125,-0.182,-0.074 @@ -110,12 +110,12 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.039,-0.093,-0.001 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.022,0.009,0.035 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.014,-0.039,0.056 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.015,-0.014,0.039 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.042,0.015,0.077 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.076,-0.009,0.147 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.15,0.028,0.27 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.099,0.061,0.145 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.12,0.076,0.181 -Toto-2.0-4m,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.135,0.047,0.204 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.12,0.218 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.625,0.515,0.726 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.151,-0.216,-0.092 @@ -127,12 +127,12 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.063,-0.125,-0.017 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.023,-0.037,-0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.349,0.75,-0.009,-0.07,0.04 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.007,-0.046,0.022 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.02,-0.01,0.064 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.055,-0.036,0.135 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.13,0.007,0.247 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.078,0.043,0.128 TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.1,0.06,0.155 -TiRex-2,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.115,0.021,0.184 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.106,0.197 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.505,0.72 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.216,-0.088 @@ -144,14 +144,31 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.099,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.014,-0.059,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.651,0.009,-0.041,0.065 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.038,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.014,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.063,0.005,0.129 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.138,0.034,0.263 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.143 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.108,0.037,0.192 -TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.123,0.058,0.187 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.158,0.095,0.217 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.519,0.713 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.142,-0.208,-0.088 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.142,-0.205,-0.09 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.197,-0.083 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.118,-0.041 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.055,-0.116,-0.01 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.016,-0.041,0.014 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.007,-0.023,0.044 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.055,0.037 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.027,-0.001,0.067 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.062,-0.031,0.15 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.136,0.003,0.274 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.084,0.038,0.139 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.106,0.045,0.192 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.095,0.219 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.619,0.512,0.717 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.273,-0.097 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.277,-0.096 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.166,-0.27,-0.091 @@ -161,12 +178,12 @@ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.162,-0.025 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.044,-0.083,-0.015 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.02,-0.068,0.01 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.086,0.013 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.028,-0.072,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.036,-0.056,0.102 TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,-0.021,0.241 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.09 TiRex,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.081,0.025,0.153 -TiRex,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,-0.003,0.171 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.073,0.186 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.499,0.709 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.218,-0.361,-0.12 @@ -178,12 +195,12 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.125,-0.223,-0.057 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.083,-0.172,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.058,-0.156,0.035 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.067,-0.148,-0.006 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.066,-0.176,0.03 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.037,-0.113,0.053 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.08,-0.032,0.187 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.024,-0.037,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.047,-0.044,0.134 -TabPFN-TS-3,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.064,-0.012,0.126 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.101,0.008,0.193 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.594,0.486,0.694 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.323,-0.558,-0.156 @@ -195,12 +212,12 @@ FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.222,-0.421,-0.084 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.37,-0.029 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.15,-0.328,-0.007 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.16,-0.356,-0.035 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.158,-0.378,-0.003 FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.127,-0.318,0.02 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.086,-0.23,0.031 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.06,-0.225,0.076 FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.035,-0.146,0.074 -FlowState,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.017,-0.152,0.083 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.023,-0.108,0.139 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.559,0.424,0.672 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.371,-0.15 @@ -212,12 +229,12 @@ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.249,-0.074 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.109,-0.169,-0.065 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.085,-0.146,-0.045 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.167,-0.039 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.092,-0.161,-0.04 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.063,-0.099,-0.03 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.025,-0.116,0.035 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.057,-0.083,0.184 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.024,-0.038,0.084 -Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.041,-0.065,0.115 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.017,0.14 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.469,0.689 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.278,-0.413,-0.173 @@ -229,31 +246,14 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.181,-0.297,-0.092 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.136,-0.221,-0.082 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.111,-0.184,-0.064 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.121,-0.237,-0.038 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.119,-0.238,-0.047 citras-fm,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.089,-0.181,-0.026 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.05,-0.155,0.042 citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.034,-0.08,0.127 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.091,0.037 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.017,-0.092,0.094 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,-0.001,0.111 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.574,0.432,0.693 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.442,-0.186 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.3,-0.452,-0.175 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.291,-0.438,-0.17 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.226,-0.344,-0.113 -PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.173,-0.284,-0.058 -PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.202,-0.3,-0.115 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.156,-0.256,-0.049 -PatchTST,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.13,-0.226,-0.022 -PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.14,-0.23,-0.061 -PatchTST,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.108,-0.207,0.003 -PatchTST,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.068,-0.144,0.012 -PatchTST,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.017,-0.09,0.132 -PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.042,-0.129,0.061 -PatchTST,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.018,-0.103,0.084 -PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.034,0.126 -PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.567,0.435,0.68 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.477,-0.24 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.487,-0.237 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.466,-0.235 @@ -263,12 +263,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.352,-0.155 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.279,-0.137 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.246,-0.119 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.187,-0.277,-0.105 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.186,-0.28,-0.105 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.229,-0.079 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.112,-0.239,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.161,0.097 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.162,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.06,-0.125,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.042,-0.144,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.67 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.001,-3.137,-1.304 @@ -280,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.77,-1.139 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.668,-2.646,-1.063 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.608,-2.568,-1.019 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.631,-2.486,-1.077 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.627,-2.533,-1.049 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.437,-0.997 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.464,-2.271,-0.947 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.268,-2.052,-0.736 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-2.214,-0.883 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.348,-2.261,-0.762 -Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.307,-2.121,-0.769 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.215,-2.027,-0.704 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 6049ca19327d439beb42b77e820b6688ed620546..98022b4813d4436bd0d8fe256dc7267431124374 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -9,11 +9,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.066,0.193 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.073,0.209 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.139,0.086,0.203 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.166,0.087,0.257 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.144,0.086,0.219 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.079,0.256 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.139,0.049,0.245 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.141,0.267 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.181,0.116,0.253 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.114,0.276 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.181,0.116,0.253 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.156,0.302 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.421,0.654 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.013,-0.034,0.0 @@ -26,11 +26,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.062,0.171 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.069,0.184 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.127,0.081,0.191 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.082,0.239 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.082,0.193 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.056,0.251 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.128,0.019,0.239 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.136,0.254 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.112,0.232 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.109,0.265 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.112,0.232 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.22,0.152,0.285 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.419,0.647 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.022,-0.054,-0.003 @@ -43,11 +43,11 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.06,0.159 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.115,0.068,0.169 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.12,0.076,0.18 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.08,0.229 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.079,0.176 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.038,0.248 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.121,-0.004,0.231 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.131,0.245 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.112,0.218 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.108,0.251 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.112,0.218 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.151,0.275 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.414,0.642 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.076,-0.142,-0.03 @@ -60,11 +60,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.058,0.034,0.085 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.068,0.042,0.099 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.036,0.118 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.102,0.053,0.16 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.079,0.05,0.11 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.104,-0.035,0.209 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.074,-0.075,0.178 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.137,0.098,0.186 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.119,0.087,0.154 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.129,0.081,0.192 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.119,0.087,0.154 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.122,0.223 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.392,0.613 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.068,-0.124,-0.023 @@ -77,11 +77,11 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.066,0.005,0.155 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.075,0.013,0.169 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.03,0.14 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.109,0.032,0.209 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.029,0.175 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.111,0.049,0.183 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.081,0.019,0.155 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.143,0.087,0.216 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.126,0.064,0.212 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.059,0.226 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.126,0.064,0.212 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.259 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.388,0.617 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.27,-0.056 @@ -94,11 +94,11 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.0,-0.046,0.03 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.01,-0.05,0.046 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.049,0.069 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,-0.002,0.1 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.022,-0.02,0.054 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.12,0.172 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.016,-0.189,0.136 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.083,0.012,0.143 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.064,0.008,0.105 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.014,0.139 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.064,0.008,0.105 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.051,0.182 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.58 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.239,-0.07 @@ -111,11 +111,11 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.01,-0.012,0.033 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.016,-0.025,0.049 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,0.016,0.086 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.022,0.0,0.042 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.109,0.156 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,-0.155,0.119 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.083,0.042,0.126 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.064,0.043,0.086 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.041,0.122 +Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.064,0.043,0.086 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.12,0.077,0.168 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.364,0.579 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.155,-0.264,-0.079 @@ -128,11 +128,11 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.01,-0.034,0.012 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.006,-0.055,0.053 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.037,0.003,0.082 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.013,0.038 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.039,-0.135,0.155 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.006,-0.176,0.12 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.074,0.027,0.122 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.074 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.066,0.026,0.12 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.074 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.111,0.066,0.165 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.355,0.579 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.161,-0.255,-0.094 @@ -145,11 +145,11 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.016,-0.052,0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.006,-0.056,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.009,0.083 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.006,-0.033,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,-0.09,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.001,-0.121,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.068,0.034,0.105 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.011,0.098 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.101 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.011,0.098 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.065,0.148 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.364,0.568 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.199,-0.346,-0.095 @@ -162,13 +162,30 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.094,-0.016 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.038,-0.09,-0.003 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.091,0.009 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.026,-0.071,0.004 TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.002,-0.176,0.116 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.901,-0.031,-0.219,0.065 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,-0.012,0.083 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.019,-0.018,0.044 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,0.004,0.056 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.019,-0.018,0.044 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.124 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.35,0.545 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.168,-0.28,-0.094 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.239,-0.09 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.213,-0.086 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.086,-0.124,-0.053 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.212,-0.03 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.022,-0.057,0.02 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.022,-0.044,-0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.012,-0.04,0.013 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.006,-0.054,0.032 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.004,0.066 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.133,0.132 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.005,-0.182,0.104 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.055,0.019,0.107 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.044,0.021,0.068 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.1,0.058,0.146 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.355,0.568 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.201,-0.344,-0.085 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.186,-0.335,-0.059 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.33,-0.04 @@ -179,11 +196,11 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.051,-0.185,0.099 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.04,-0.183,0.119 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.035,-0.141,0.083 FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.131,0.149 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.152,0.117 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.034,-0.124,0.05 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.036,-0.086,0.162 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.016,-0.107,0.162 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.093,0.164 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.016,-0.107,0.162 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.075,-0.004,0.187 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.326,0.558 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.162,-0.325,-0.051 @@ -196,47 +213,13 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.017,-0.135,0.134 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.006,-0.137,0.15 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.001,-0.088,0.108 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.25,0.099,0.45,0.03,-0.07,0.179 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.005,-0.116,0.154 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.033,-0.052,0.11 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.068,-0.013,0.181 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.049,-0.067,0.19 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.06,-0.026,0.187 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.049,-0.067,0.19 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.105,-0.001,0.226 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.342,0.578 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.246,-0.363,-0.164 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.341,-0.157 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.324,-0.151 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.228,-0.109 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.167,-0.275,-0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.091,-0.166,-0.012 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.091,-0.145,-0.043 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.08,-0.139,-0.028 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.073,-0.118,-0.035 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.04,-0.091,0.012 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.038,-0.193,0.079 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.073,-0.221,0.013 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.45,0.249,0.65,-0.02,-0.075,0.029 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.009,-0.056,0.034 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.04,-0.028,0.105 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.304,0.541 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.221,-0.338,-0.132 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.303,-0.127 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.278,-0.126 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.135,-0.182,-0.095 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.144,-0.27,-0.068 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.118,-0.008 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.095,-0.045 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.058,-0.08,-0.039 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.052,-0.109,-0.011 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.019,-0.046,0.018 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.017,-0.193,0.097 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.051,-0.235,0.063 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.751,0.02,-0.03,0.07 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.012,-0.026,0.059 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.059,0.024,0.105 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.322,0.551 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.382,-0.129 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.36,-0.122 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.335,-0.121 @@ -247,13 +230,30 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.081,-0.139,-0.043 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.07,-0.136,-0.027 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.064,-0.112,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.058,-0.12,-0.02 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.029,-0.197,0.085 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.064,-0.23,0.026 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.008,-0.035,0.053 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.012,-0.063,0.025 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.012,-0.063,0.025 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.003,0.096 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.333,0.532 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.221,-0.338,-0.132 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.303,-0.127 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.278,-0.126 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.135,-0.182,-0.095 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.144,-0.27,-0.068 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.118,-0.008 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.095,-0.045 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.058,-0.08,-0.039 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.052,-0.109,-0.011 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.019,-0.046,0.018 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.046,-0.074,-0.021 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.017,-0.193,0.097 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.051,-0.235,0.063 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.012,-0.026,0.059 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.059,0.024,0.105 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.322,0.551 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.433,-0.184 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.399,-0.179 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.271,-0.38,-0.178 @@ -264,11 +264,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.136,-0.201,-0.083 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.125,-0.197,-0.071 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.174,-0.069 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.083,-0.141,-0.031 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.112,-0.171,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.081,-0.231,0.004 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.117,-0.293,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.042,-0.117,0.028 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.063,-0.117,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.106,-0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.063,-0.117,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.512 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.16,-1.888,-0.726 @@ -281,10 +281,10 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.375,-0.572 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.871,-1.377,-0.55 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.313,-0.572 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.802,-1.198,-0.539 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.313,-0.551 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.798,-1.26,-0.483 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.859,-1.369,-0.521 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.733,-1.18,-0.436 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.227,-0.475 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.748,-1.138,-0.499 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.227,-0.475 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-1.049,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv index faad764361a79a41a32595168da84a45c4c9d12d..8d0461fb5d58a1d350f8a4c5323b36332219084a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -8,12 +8,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.129,0.058,0.225 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.069,0.205 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.222 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.095,0.204 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.088,0.228 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.091,0.263 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.131,0.047,0.222 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.171,0.084,0.255 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.204,0.129,0.288 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.206,0.141,0.289 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.231,0.124,0.326 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.26,0.189,0.332 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.69,0.609,0.766 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.009,-0.027,0.004 @@ -25,12 +25,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.121,0.056,0.205 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.068,0.187 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.076,0.205 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.091,0.191 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.086,0.209 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.161,0.088,0.248 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.025,0.223 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.163,0.068,0.254 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.197,0.125,0.279 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.138,0.27 -Toto-2.0-1B,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.224,0.107,0.322 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.186,0.32 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.688,0.607,0.763 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.02,-0.056,0.002 @@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.054,0.181 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.065,0.165 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.123,0.074,0.182 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.087,0.182 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.083,0.188 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.152,0.086,0.227 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.114,-0.005,0.22 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.154,0.045,0.251 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.124,0.259 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.137,0.25 -Toto-2.0-313m,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.216,0.083,0.318 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.185,0.304 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.684,0.602,0.763 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.133,-0.034 @@ -59,12 +59,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.065,0.023,0.123 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.036,0.1 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.044,0.12 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.084,0.052,0.121 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.052,0.126 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.108,0.057,0.168 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.068,-0.074,0.168 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.111,-0.022,0.213 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.095,0.205 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.106,0.195 -Toto-2.0-22m,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.176,0.029,0.281 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.206,0.157,0.257 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.668,0.584,0.745 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.068,-0.107,-0.03 @@ -76,12 +76,12 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.07,-0.014,0.185 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.071,0.004,0.171 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.082,0.016,0.185 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.088,0.033,0.155 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.09,0.026,0.189 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.113,0.032,0.222 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,0.011,0.147 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.115,0.05,0.188 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.066,0.248 Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.085,0.251 -Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.18,0.08,0.27 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.134,0.3 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.669,0.582,0.746 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.148,-0.291,-0.061 @@ -93,12 +93,12 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.001,-0.04,0.028 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.013,-0.041,0.047 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.02,-0.047,0.073 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.022,-0.018,0.052 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.0,0.095 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.003,-0.211,0.127 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.049,-0.131,0.178 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.029,0.145 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.033,0.131 -Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.118,-0.078,0.246 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.21 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.563,0.725 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.258,-0.075 @@ -110,12 +110,12 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.001,-0.029,0.038 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.012,-0.009,0.034 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.019,-0.028,0.056 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.021,0.0,0.04 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.045,0.016,0.082 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.002,-0.182,0.109 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.048,-0.128,0.162 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.049,0.128 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.061,0.117 -Toto-2.0-4m,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.117,-0.066,0.232 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.15,0.107,0.197 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.644,0.559,0.727 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.163,-0.286,-0.084 @@ -127,12 +127,12 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.013,-0.049,0.039 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.012,-0.035,0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.007,-0.056,0.053 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.009,-0.011,0.03 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.034,0.004,0.075 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.6,0.9,-0.01,-0.207,0.11 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.036,-0.151,0.155 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.075,0.041,0.122 TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.06,0.098 -TiRex-2,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,-0.096,0.232 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.099,0.185 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.64,0.55,0.728 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.171,-0.256,-0.105 @@ -144,14 +144,31 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.02,-0.079,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.019,-0.059,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.007,-0.056,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.002,-0.039,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.018,0.086 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.017,-0.149,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.104,0.121 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.116 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.023,0.131 -TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.1,-0.044,0.208 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.092,0.179 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.557,0.714 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.173,-0.296,-0.096 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.264,-0.095 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.15,-0.232,-0.091 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.144,-0.055 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.099,-0.234,-0.027 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.022,-0.055,0.018 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.021,-0.041,-0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.009,-0.031,0.011 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.002,-0.055,0.037 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.025,-0.001,0.061 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.019,-0.211,0.095 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,-0.153,0.141 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.067,0.032,0.109 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.069,0.044,0.098 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.093,0.176 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.637,0.552,0.72 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.203,-0.356,-0.1 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.192,-0.33,-0.096 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.179,-0.294,-0.094 @@ -161,12 +178,12 @@ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.105,-0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.047,-0.089,-0.016 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.035,-0.081,-0.004 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.095,0.018 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.026,-0.065,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.045,-0.247,0.06 TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.003,-0.19,0.122 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.043,0.019,0.07 TiRex,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.045,0.007,0.072 -TiRex,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.075,-0.133,0.211 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.11,0.064,0.155 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.627,0.54,0.71 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.151,-0.285,-0.049 @@ -178,12 +195,12 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.003,-0.146,0.175 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.002,-0.123,0.154 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.4,0.01,-0.124,0.172 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.017,-0.077,0.13 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.019,-0.105,0.174 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.043,-0.064,0.198 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.046,-0.042,0.123 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.084,-0.013,0.224 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.087,-0.036,0.236 -TabPFN-TS-3,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.115,0.011,0.208 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.148,0.036,0.276 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.644,0.549,0.724 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.206,-0.343,-0.092 @@ -195,12 +212,12 @@ FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.217,0.116 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.05,-0.194,0.113 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.037,-0.184,0.131 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.03,-0.137,0.094 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.028,-0.164,0.132 FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.003,-0.139,0.159 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.048,-0.141,0.04 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.04,-0.089,0.189 FlowState,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.043,-0.092,0.201 -FlowState,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.056,0.185 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.107,0.023,0.228 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.538,0.704 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.404,-0.148 @@ -212,12 +229,12 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.17,-0.03 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.147,-0.052 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.081,-0.139,-0.043 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.074,-0.131,-0.029 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.071,-0.122,-0.033 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.044,-0.075,-0.02 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.092,-0.288,0.013 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.042,-0.233,0.082 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.003,-0.048,0.042 -Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.034,-0.175,0.172 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,0.975,0.07,0.023,0.118 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.523,0.693 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.26,-0.406,-0.164 @@ -229,31 +246,14 @@ citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.098,-0.151,-0.034 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.133,-0.065 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.109,-0.064 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.15,-0.024 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.074,-0.109,-0.046 citras-fm,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.047,-0.078,-0.007 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.095,-0.309,0.035 citras-fm,FlowState,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.045,-0.252,0.084 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.003,-0.044,0.046 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,PatchTST,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.031,-0.192,0.171 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.067,0.03,0.115 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.61,0.511,0.705 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.483,-0.142 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.289,-0.474,-0.119 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.275,-0.467,-0.091 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.213,-0.392,-0.029 -PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.219,-0.369,-0.087 -PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.327,0.072 -PatchTST,Toto-2.0-4m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.133,-0.303,0.062 -PatchTST,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.119,-0.302,0.088 -PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.112,-0.262,0.042 -PatchTST,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.081,-0.267,0.118 -PatchTST,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.13,-0.262,-0.011 -PatchTST,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.227,0.053 -PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.035,-0.208,0.149 -PatchTST,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.032,-0.207,0.161 -PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.037,-0.124,0.209 -PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.597,0.477,0.698 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.351,-0.498,-0.233 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.471,-0.228 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.437,-0.227 @@ -263,12 +263,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.267,-0.098 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.176,-0.246,-0.12 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.227,-0.11 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.218,-0.101 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.152,-0.214,-0.102 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.123,-0.183,-0.069 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.174,-0.382,-0.037 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.12,-0.295,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.025,0.301,-0.075,-0.134,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.072,-0.13,-0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.264,0.11 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.486,0.675 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.229,-3.277,-1.556 @@ -280,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-2.639,-1.287 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.811,-2.664,-1.269 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.778,-2.67,-1.221 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.759,-2.495,-1.259 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.753,-2.574,-1.232 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.684,-2.448,-1.175 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.806,-2.622,-1.215 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.677,-2.381,-1.163 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-2.259,-1.095 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.563,-2.394,-1.044 -Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.482,-2.307,-0.914 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.073,-0.945 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 1e32e5f91ee2f06036c69ccc814ae6002aa996fb..2057fcdfa9d910b583e2e435a2a4714073e99a8c 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,89.58333333333333,40.553930524399625,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,78.86904761904762,38.47702197421158,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,74.99999999999999,37.883510512986405,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,73.2142857142857,37.647796213911036,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,70.83333333333334,37.637104246897856,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.5357142857143,37.649421436010044,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.85714285714288,36.87592044073875,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,67.85714285714286,36.307128273958256,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,66.07142857142854,36.739370201928836,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,63.39285714285713,35.908870624227376,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,62.20238095238094,35.21482359572895,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -CatBoost,61.011904761904766,35.982559330359685,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,56.250000000000014,35.180832137280916,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.952380952380956,32.41516602344565,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -citras-fm,52.976190476190474,34.02322385198361,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,51.78571428571429,33.893658085803416,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,48.51190476190476,34.19057001716027,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,47.916666666666664,32.52926186802178,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,45.833333333333336,32.83344751489832,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Drift,45.83333333333333,29.639454067966152,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,36.01190476190476,28.575629786307356,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,35.41666666666667,30.133730029400986,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,35.41666666666667,28.236498726126015,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -DeepAR,27.38095238095238,24.302560020818376,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,19.047619047619044,19.70951503418047,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,14.285714285714285,15.279108700450617,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.095238095238098,15.593612422240255,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 -TFT,10.714285714285717,9.838087249658834,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,89.36781609195403,40.553930524399625,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,78.73563218390805,38.47702197421158,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,75.28735632183907,37.883510512986405,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,73.5632183908046,37.647796213911036,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,71.26436781609196,37.637104246897856,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.97701149425289,37.649421436010044,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.816091954023,36.87592044073875,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,67.81609195402298,36.307128273958256,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,66.09195402298849,36.739370201928836,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,63.50574712643677,35.908870624227376,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,62.06896551724137,35.21482359572895,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +CatBoost,60.91954022988505,35.982559330359685,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,56.32183908045978,35.180832137280916,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,56.03448275862068,32.41516602344565,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +citras-fm,53.44827586206896,34.02322385198361,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,51.72413793103448,33.893658085803416,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,48.85057471264368,34.19057001716027,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,48.275862068965516,32.52926186802178,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,46.264367816091955,32.83344751489832,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Drift,45.97701149425287,29.639454067966152,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,45.11494252873563,29.501972032987776,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,36.49425287356321,28.575629786307356,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,35.63218390804598,30.133730029400986,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,35.632183908045974,28.236498726126015,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +DeepAR,27.298850574712645,24.302560020818376,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,19.252873563218387,19.70951503418047,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,14.367816091954023,15.279108700450617,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.505747126436784,15.593612422240255,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +TFT,10.919540229885058,9.838087249658834,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,7.471264367816091,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 7c83965f3eb5ba0f87b28c109ba50729df4c13c2..c9b087aaaaff1bc6af5f5cb28cc1d96496de58dd 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,92.85714285714286,41.37587435805797,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.27380952380952,38.54527045088485,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,77.97619047619048,37.73601252203713,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.97619047619048,38.30540837943911,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,77.67857142857143,38.27714813601945,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,77.67857142857143,38.28322277552283,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.38095238095238,38.16787226217255,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,69.9404761904762,37.119576639717835,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,65.77380952380952,35.273957411546085,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,62.5,35.90432755342822,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,61.30952380952381,35.245938628620046,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.523809523809526,33.496371356107844,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.92857142857143,35.173459448094114,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,55.952380952380956,29.18586393990128,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,50.000000000000014,32.772070331944484,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoARIMA,48.214285714285715,31.72145242450589,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,46.42857142857144,31.81815534740079,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,39.88095238095238,29.079628766325204,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoTheta,39.285714285714285,29.61896808086114,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,38.98809523809524,29.19971717461506,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 -Drift,38.69047619047619,25.58270375016218,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,36.60714285714285,25.12762288287479,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,27.083333333333332,24.325044506495818,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,22.321428571428566,23.419716355230047,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,19.345238095238095,16.930294384775955,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,15.178571428571427,14.510260955147846,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.690476190476192,11.510640002523509,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 -TFT,13.095238095238097,9.329379481293765,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,7.440476190476189,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,92.81609195402298,41.37587435805797,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.44827586206895,38.54527045088485,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,78.16091954022988,38.30540837943911,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,77.8735632183908,38.27714813601945,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,77.8735632183908,38.28322277552283,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.58620689655173,38.16787226217255,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,77.58620689655172,37.73601252203713,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,69.82758620689656,37.119576639717835,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,65.80459770114942,35.273957411546085,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,62.93103448275862,35.90432755342822,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,62.068965517241395,35.245938628620046,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,59.482758620689644,33.496371356107844,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.19540229885059,35.173459448094114,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,55.7471264367816,29.18586393990128,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,50.28735632183909,32.772070331944484,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoARIMA,48.275862068965516,31.72145242450589,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,46.264367816091955,31.81815534740079,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,45.68965517241379,29.358753198562194,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,40.22988505747126,29.079628766325204,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,39.36781609195403,29.19971717461506,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,39.367816091954026,29.61896808086114,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +Drift,38.793103448275865,25.58270375016218,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,37.068965517241374,25.12762288287479,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,27.29885057471264,24.325044506495818,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,22.413793103448274,23.419716355230047,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,19.54022988505747,16.930294384775955,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,14.942528735632182,14.510260955147846,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.793103448275861,11.510640002523509,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +TFT,13.218390804597702,9.329379481293765,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,8.045977011494253,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 189efd99a37d9aad4320167aa7166425afe56b81..fe84be14072094daee76ff85af313b71054846f6 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,88.0952380952381,42.13247790984753,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.76190476190477,38.80502192761649,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.57142857142857,39.10703314170318,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,74.70238095238095,38.257695402459,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,71.13095238095238,37.906655236674865,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.45238095238095,37.758720587285445,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,63.6904761904762,38.177219528557146,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,63.09523809523808,36.558735189016225,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,58.92857142857143,35.89256072267927,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-1.0,58.63095238095239,33.97875884401389,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.73809523809524,36.531743334435674,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,56.547619047619044,37.645403955852096,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -citras-fm,55.654761904761905,34.4896707490341,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,55.0595238095238,35.20082715344605,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.273809523809526,33.31225235226658,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,53.27380952380951,34.84116662551825,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,51.488095238095234,35.02206834104291,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,48.51190476190476,35.732170334358024,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,44.94047619047619,30.478143266802604,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,44.345238095238095,29.457560079978773,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,43.154761904761905,28.277512977220987,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoTheta,41.66666666666666,31.812923074763923,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 -Drift,41.36904761904761,28.435824921980835,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.345238095238095,15.872310498117715,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,18.45238095238095,17.737235971841127,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,17.261904761904763,15.619782622761335,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,17.26190476190476,19.60425306556468,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 -TFT,14.880952380952378,6.946074243338563,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.714285714285717,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,88.50574712643679,42.13247790984753,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,80.45977011494254,38.80502192761649,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.02298850574712,39.10703314170318,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,75.57471264367815,38.257695402459,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,71.55172413793103,37.906655236674865,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,69.25287356321839,37.758720587285445,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,63.50574712643679,38.177219528557146,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,63.50574712643677,36.558735189016225,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,59.48275862068966,35.89256072267927,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-1.0,59.195402298850574,33.97875884401389,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.04597701149425,36.531743334435674,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,56.60919540229885,37.645403955852096,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +citras-fm,56.03448275862068,34.4896707490341,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,55.172413793103445,35.20082715344605,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,53.44827586206896,34.84116662551825,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,53.44827586206896,33.31225235226658,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,51.43678160919539,35.02206834104291,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,48.275862068965516,35.732170334358024,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,45.40229885057471,30.478143266802604,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,44.827586206896555,29.457560079978773,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,43.67816091954023,28.277512977220987,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoTheta,41.95402298850575,31.812923074763923,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +Drift,41.37931034482758,28.435824921980835,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,39.94252873563219,25.73612363732908,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 +Naive,19.827586206896548,15.872310498117715,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,18.678160919540225,17.737235971841127,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,17.816091954022987,19.60425306556468,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,17.816091954022983,15.619782622761335,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +TFT,14.94252873563218,6.946074243338563,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.20689655172414,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 9d72bd4c594158446a84017191ddc2eac01d1389..8cb2b7ade2cc9dd2cbfb13ef5db9e5a8f310ac7c 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,89.58333333333333,45.53906787899109,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,81.54761904761905,42.35200647023204,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.76190476190476,42.8032329067254,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.59523809523809,42.088190864136244,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,75.0,42.320942130283335,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,74.70238095238095,42.09146596586096,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,69.3452380952381,40.960757337476025,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,64.58333333333333,39.04918118052987,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.6904761904762,40.9054936267241,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.20238095238094,40.20371520247606,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,61.60714285714286,38.100769058535434,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,61.01190476190476,39.266493040907115,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,59.523809523809526,38.36462827294697,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,57.14285714285714,37.992090519620156,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.08333333333333,35.534952430792764,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,50.89285714285714,36.76571988294681,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,48.80952380952381,34.00880337940215,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,47.023809523809526,32.793225265991246,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoARIMA,45.833333333333336,34.44615311952015,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,36.607142857142854,29.146207850323268,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 -Drift,30.952380952380942,23.828649343246187,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,26.19047619047618,26.0945614678313,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,26.19047619047618,25.89068156049532,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,25.595238095238095,21.869167576579297,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,22.321428571428566,19.911167839333967,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,18.45238095238095,17.532849869365606,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -TFT,16.36904761904762,9.939963215759995,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 -Naive,16.071428571428566,11.371958531244664,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.309523809523812,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,89.94252873563218,45.53906787899109,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,82.18390804597699,42.35200647023204,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.17241379310344,42.8032329067254,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.4367816091954,42.088190864136244,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,75.86206896551724,42.320942130283335,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.2873563218391,42.09146596586096,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,69.82758620689656,40.960757337476025,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,65.22988505747126,39.04918118052987,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,63.50574712643679,40.9054936267241,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.35632183908045,40.20371520247606,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,62.35632183908045,38.100769058535434,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,61.49425287356321,39.266493040907115,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,59.77011494252874,38.36462827294697,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,56.60919540229884,37.992090519620156,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,52.01149425287357,35.534952430792764,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,51.14942528735632,36.76571988294681,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,49.137931034482754,34.00880337940215,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,47.70114942528736,32.793225265991246,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoARIMA,45.689655172413794,34.44615311952015,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,43.39080459770115,29.757321220508814,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,36.49425287356322,29.146207850323268,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +Drift,30.747126436781603,23.828649343246187,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,26.149425287356316,25.89068156049532,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,26.149425287356316,26.0945614678313,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,25.287356321839077,21.869167576579297,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,22.701149425287348,19.911167839333967,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,18.103448275862068,17.532849869365606,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +TFT,16.379310344827587,9.939963215759995,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.091954022988503,11.371958531244664,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.781609195402302,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 78c816e23b14265c54cfaf98e8ba14747cb9e0c8..edc2ec675e58e46ea5e26c0ff7e8d4e13c572cd9 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -10,10 +10,10 @@ TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.064,-0.008,0.14 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.124,0.043,0.2 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.043,0.154 TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.107,-0.003,0.217 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.088,0.001,0.173 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.072,-0.004,0.126 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.088,0.001,0.173 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.117,0.053,0.186 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.132,0.068,0.203 +TiRex-2,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.112,0.051,0.185 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.089,0.254 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.305,0.538 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.058,-0.156,0.019 @@ -27,10 +27,10 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.01,-0.138,0.106 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.073,-0.013,0.157 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.045,-0.002,0.093 Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.056,-0.124,0.175 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.036,-0.112,0.136 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.019,-0.152,0.114 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.036,-0.112,0.136 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.032,0.103 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.082,-0.005,0.154 +Toto-2.0-1B,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.061,-0.038,0.14 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.12,0.045,0.197 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.388,0.248,0.515 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.052,-0.132,0.021 @@ -44,10 +44,10 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.015,-0.114,0.104 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.078,-0.001,0.164 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.05,0.012,0.094 Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.104,0.172 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.041,-0.09,0.131 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.023,-0.13,0.115 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.041,-0.09,0.131 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.07,0.035,0.107 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.087,0.01,0.16 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.065,-0.017,0.138 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.124,0.054,0.199 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.391,0.26,0.511 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.067,-0.156,0.007 @@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.001,-0.131,0.091 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.065,-0.011,0.147 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.037,-0.004,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.047,-0.108,0.154 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.027,-0.108,0.124 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.01,-0.142,0.106 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.027,-0.108,0.124 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.058,0.014,0.098 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.074,0.005,0.14 +Toto-2.0-313m,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.052,-0.025,0.119 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.112,0.053,0.179 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.383,0.252,0.506 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.073,-0.145,-0.018 @@ -78,10 +78,10 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.004,-0.084,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.059,-0.005,0.12 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.031,-0.046,0.105 Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.042,-0.064,0.136 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.022,-0.074,0.112 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.004,-0.084,0.08 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.022,-0.074,0.112 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,-0.018,0.13 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.048,0.092 +Toto-2.0-22m,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.047,-0.016,0.095 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.107,0.057,0.155 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.379,0.262,0.497 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.076,-0.135,-0.023 @@ -95,10 +95,10 @@ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.118,0.073 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.011,0.131 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.066 TiRex,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.039,-0.111,0.151 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.019,-0.098,0.11 TiRex,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.002,-0.132,0.081 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.019,-0.098,0.11 TiRex,citras-fm,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.05,0.012,0.089 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.067,0.006,0.127 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.022,0.113 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.043,0.176 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.378,0.252,0.503 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.096,-0.178,-0.018 @@ -112,10 +112,10 @@ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.142,0.05 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.047,0.129 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.01,-0.025,0.05 Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.021,-0.142,0.136 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.0,-0.134,0.102 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.017,-0.169,0.081 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.0,-0.134,0.102 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.032,-0.004,0.065 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.049,-0.031,0.135 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.04,0.085 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.087,0.014,0.175 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.366,0.237,0.489 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.068,-0.163,0.008 @@ -129,10 +129,10 @@ Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.025,0.153 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.036,-0.044,0.138 Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.046,-0.019,0.117 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.026,-0.033,0.082 Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.009,-0.049,0.064 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.026,-0.033,0.082 Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.056,-0.041,0.172 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.073,-0.009,0.154 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.051,0.006,0.104 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.111,0.016,0.202 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.284,0.478 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.141,-0.249,-0.045 @@ -146,10 +146,10 @@ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.024 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.139,0.05 Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.019,-0.168,0.102 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.192,0.084 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.059,-0.205,0.059 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.192,0.084 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.008,-0.106,0.078 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.248,0.75,0.01,-0.051,0.066 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.013,-0.1,0.062 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.093 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.463 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.108,-0.182,-0.045 @@ -163,10 +163,10 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.037,-0.161,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.053,0.122 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.011,-0.151,0.126 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.01,-0.144,0.086 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.028,-0.174,0.06 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.01,-0.144,0.086 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.032,0.058 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.039,-0.044,0.124 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.016,-0.058,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.078,0.002,0.167 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.235,0.479 CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.278,0.003 @@ -180,29 +180,12 @@ CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.048,-0.133,0.018 CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.019,-0.114,0.144 CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.011,-0.145,0.131 CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.113,0.061 CatBoost,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.039,-0.146,0.029 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.113,0.061 CatBoost,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.011,-0.143,0.169 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.028,-0.083,0.129 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.006,-0.085,0.101 CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.068,-0.042,0.181 CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.249,0.443 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.209,-0.001 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.158,0.101 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.042,-0.151,0.082 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.028,-0.142,0.097 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.022,-0.126,0.069 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.124,0.089 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.0,-0.113,0.119 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.027,-0.089,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.039,-0.092,0.161 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.01,-0.095,0.126 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.021,-0.065,0.101 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.018,-0.086,0.053 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.031,-0.101,0.16 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.048,-0.067,0.151 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.087,-0.047,0.2 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.273,0.457 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.144,0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.019,-0.129,0.132 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.024,-0.13,0.115 @@ -214,12 +197,29 @@ FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.009,-0.068,0.047 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.056,-0.062,0.17 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.064,0.149 FlowState,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.038,-0.03,0.127 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.018,-0.056,0.079 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.018,-0.056,0.079 FlowState,citras-fm,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.048,-0.056,0.183 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.065,-0.028,0.157 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.043,-0.045,0.131 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.103,-0.011,0.214 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.376,0.258,0.488 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.209,-0.001 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.158,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.042,-0.151,0.082 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.028,-0.142,0.097 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.022,-0.126,0.069 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.124,0.089 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.0,-0.113,0.119 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.027,-0.089,0.032 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.039,-0.092,0.161 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.01,-0.095,0.126 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.021,-0.065,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.018,-0.086,0.053 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.031,-0.101,0.16 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.063,0.099 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.087,-0.047,0.2 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.273,0.457 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.132,-0.229,-0.056 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.115,-0.033 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.076,-0.119,-0.036 @@ -231,29 +231,29 @@ citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.06,-0.208,0.04 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.008,-0.085,0.096 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.022,-0.062,0.031 citras-fm,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.011,-0.203,0.125 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.032,-0.191,0.092 citras-fm,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.051,-0.224,0.053 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.032,-0.191,0.092 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.018,-0.074,0.1 +citras-fm,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.096,0.076 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.058,-0.021,0.147 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.345,0.198,0.487 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.152,-0.255,-0.073 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.09,-0.182,0.005 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.095,-0.19,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.08,-0.163,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.074,-0.101,-0.051 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.145,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.051,-0.155,0.03 -Toto-2.0-4m,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.079,-0.182,0.009 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.752,-0.01,-0.071,0.048 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.04,-0.142,0.043 -Toto-2.0-4m,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.029,-0.148,0.077 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.051,-0.178,0.063 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.069,-0.186,0.027 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.018,-0.111,0.069 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.041,0.002,0.082 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.333,0.197,0.46 +AutoETS,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.126,-0.227,-0.054 +AutoETS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.065,-0.163,0.036 +AutoETS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.16,0.017 +AutoETS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.055,-0.135,0.025 +AutoETS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.049,-0.105,0.016 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.127,0.022 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.093,0.039 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.115,-0.006 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.013,-0.066,0.091 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.016,-0.095,0.055 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.006,-0.113,0.079 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.045,-0.151,0.043 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.11,0.059 +AutoETS,citras-fm,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.082,0.088 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.063,-0.003,0.135 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.248,0.455 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.34,-0.098 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.136,-0.246,-0.047 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.142,-0.249,-0.058 @@ -265,10 +265,10 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.125,-0.253,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.102,-0.006 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.084,-0.2,-0.002 Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.073,-0.221,0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.095,-0.249,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.115,-0.272,0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.095,-0.249,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.061,-0.173,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.042,-0.089,-0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.067,-0.156,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.305,0.17,0.432 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.728,-1.165,-0.439 @@ -282,9 +282,9 @@ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.915,-0.396 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.515,-0.863,-0.255 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.92,-0.308 Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.796,-0.331 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.576,-0.842,-0.375 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.604,-0.954,-0.348 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.576,-0.842,-0.375 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.526,-0.95,-0.247 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.5,-0.851,-0.245 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.834,-0.33 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.438,-0.76,-0.205 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 472da2ced7256270bfbefade4cc6ad4468518029..ce1dbd605c1816c1fcfaf457167c93eff0ec8920 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.34065934065931,35.398351985937104,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.64835164835165,27.64063711794009,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.37362637362638,27.403361161284135,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.41208791208793,32.34547171146631,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,75.13736263736266,34.00489490838103,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,74.17582417582416,27.247610226794162,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,70.74175824175822,29.70839682432842,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,65.79670329670327,25.111125954829205,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,64.01098901098902,29.948417313219487,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,62.63736263736263,24.470577229456005,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,62.22527472527473,25.222517255488896,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.2032967032967,24.79493112223894,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,58.1043956043956,24.74097538777954,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.730769230769226,23.276855703905884,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.84615384615385,21.834602126597346,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,53.84615384615385,25.973733886600225,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.708791208791204,22.17352687153604,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TFT,47.11538461538463,24.332626654075018,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,41.964285714285715,20.515410969632153,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 -PatchTST,39.14835164835164,18.853426287300014,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,38.73626373626372,17.15191259995018,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,35.989010989010985,14.854815383201469,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,26.717032967032967,4.447406228151163,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -AutoARIMA,25.20604395604395,2.212327431466543,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -Seasonal Naive,21.01648351648351,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,19.36813186813187,1.1815956958414753,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,14.835164835164832,-34.97549884253801,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.156593406593405,-44.773921203129,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.807692307692308,-52.29912347479908,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,84.35013262599469,35.398351985937104,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,75.86206896551724,27.64063711794009,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.72944297082229,27.403361161284135,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,74.9336870026525,32.34547171146631,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,74.80106100795759,34.00489490838103,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.60742705570293,27.247610226794162,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,70.026525198939,29.70839682432842,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,67.6392572944297,29.724948642495818,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,65.11936339522545,25.111125954829205,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,63.12997347480107,29.948417313219487,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.67108753315651,25.222517255488896,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,61.53846153846153,24.470577229456005,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,58.48806366047745,24.79493112223894,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,57.29442970822281,24.74097538777954,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.83554376657824,23.276855703905884,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,53.18302387267904,21.834602126597346,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,53.05039787798408,25.973733886600225,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +Toto-1.0,52.785145888594165,22.17352687153604,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,46.551724137931046,24.332626654075018,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,41.44562334217506,20.515410969632153,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +PatchTST,38.594164456233415,18.853426287300014,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,37.931034482758605,17.15191259995018,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,35.14588859416445,14.854815383201469,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,26.061007957559678,4.447406228151163,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoARIMA,24.46949602122016,2.212327431466543,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +Seasonal Naive,20.689655172413786,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,18.83289124668435,1.1815956958414753,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,14.72148541114058,-34.97549884253801,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.870026525198938,-44.773921203129,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.641909814323608,-52.29912347479908,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 40f5c7d264de0198fffd0e7245f3380ae756cb22..be5b57753881efe49f7172eab6a0ef0b3e8dbeea 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.43956043956042,43.696037899366445,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,80.35714285714286,37.19233498724061,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,79.94505494505495,40.955040522328076,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.53296703296704,36.942973998246586,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,77.60989010989012,42.12648526492014,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.92307692307693,36.69282240000613,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.46703296703299,34.44791484004565,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -citras-fm,69.36813186813185,37.06311174153901,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.71978021978022,38.63838178079146,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.3076923076923,34.72199927167168,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.28571428571429,33.040194549839576,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -FlowState,59.203296703296694,32.4100685185642,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.829670329670336,32.881689430291104,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.730769230769226,31.52282472603488,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,56.31868131868132,31.473352334477845,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.21978021978021,31.112045696230428,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TFT,52.06043956043956,32.085719324643314,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,43.95604395604395,28.52842311909273,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -DeepAR,43.0631868131868,26.66949092254881,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 -PatchTST,42.3076923076923,25.60679591439182,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.640109890109887,9.139931178596383,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -Stat. Ensemble,26.304945054945055,6.196332966589502,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -CatBoost,25.13736263736263,8.874064288365757,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,21.84065934065934,6.34745033907752,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.40659340659341,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,17.170329670329668,-30.210229740669558,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,15.247252747252743,-10.643501874241924,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.585164835164836,-60.57154490567112,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.021978021978022,-67.3016518958006,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.41114058355438,43.696037899366445,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,79.70822281167108,40.955040522328076,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,79.57559681697613,37.19233498724061,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.77984084880636,36.942973998246586,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,77.18832891246686,42.12648526492014,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.25994694960212,36.69282240000613,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,69.76127320954907,38.54265308034851,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,69.76127320954907,34.44791484004565,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +citras-fm,68.56763925729442,37.06311174153901,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.71087533156499,34.72199927167168,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,66.57824933687003,38.63838178079146,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.395225464190986,33.040194549839576,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +FlowState,58.48806366047745,32.4100685185642,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,57.02917771883288,32.881689430291104,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.57029177718832,31.52282472603488,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,55.57029177718832,31.473352334477845,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.111405835543756,31.112045696230428,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,51.32625994694961,32.085719324643314,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.10344827586206,28.52842311909273,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +DeepAR,42.24137931034482,26.66949092254881,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +PatchTST,41.511936339522535,25.60679591439182,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,27.78514588859416,9.139931178596383,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +Stat. Ensemble,25.53050397877984,6.196332966589502,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +CatBoost,24.40318302387267,8.874064288365757,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,21.22015915119363,6.34745033907752,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.77188328912467,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,16.710875331564985,-30.210229740669558,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,14.72148541114058,-10.643501874241924,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.289124668435013,-60.57154490567112,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.9177718832891246,-67.3016518958006,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index a591777da74388991cc3a63d4f070040be9b1073..595d2191c6873775febd836a5f7e4614c8b541cf 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,82.28021978021978,37.557901536977845,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,75.54945054945054,31.032868019309202,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.13736263736264,30.705322754813878,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.93956043956042,30.308651726585033,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,70.87912087912088,34.43124058342566,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.1923076923077,34.61666637481101,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,68.26923076923076,31.682561212984318,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,64.83516483516483,28.863859566477203,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,61.263736263736256,27.322662354204475,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,60.027472527472526,26.65794953458317,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.75274725274725,30.36322876478197,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,56.31868131868132,26.606852502371968,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.90659340659341,25.99988075597758,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -FlowState,52.88461538461539,26.89142712985859,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Sundial-Base,52.33516483516484,28.265544600882,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.96153846153847,24.207524581618266,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TFT,49.587912087912095,26.59412613673687,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,48.489010989010985,23.82250300845572,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,43.26923076923078,20.65325504182872,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,41.1401098901099,21.82047445619971,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 -LightGBM,40.79670329670329,20.63835609604817,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,39.28571428571428,20.174610152005823,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,33.44780219780219,8.430993583997726,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -AutoARIMA,24.381868131868128,3.8316800542679386,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -AutoETS,22.52747252747253,-24.06197476117884,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Naive,22.18406593406593,-29.595393529303713,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,21.428571428571423,4.200265666572001,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.642857142857135,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 -Drift,14.285714285714288,-36.91555319026642,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.09549071618036,37.557901536977845,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,74.53580901856766,30.705322754813878,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,74.53580901856765,31.032868019309202,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.01591511936338,30.308651726585033,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,71.0875331564987,34.05152672280454,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,70.15915119363395,34.43124058342566,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,69.62864721485411,34.61666637481101,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,67.24137931034481,31.682561212984318,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.05835543766578,28.863859566477203,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,60.742705570291776,27.322662354204475,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,59.0185676392573,26.65794953458317,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.88594164456234,30.36322876478197,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,55.83554376657824,26.606852502371968,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.03978779840848,25.99988075597758,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +FlowState,52.122015915119356,26.89142712985859,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Sundial-Base,51.45888594164456,28.265544600882,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +Toto-1.0,49.86737400530503,24.207524581618266,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,49.07161803713529,26.59412613673687,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,47.74535809018566,23.82250300845572,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,42.57294429708224,20.65325504182872,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,40.384615384615394,21.82047445619971,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +LightGBM,39.78779840848806,20.63835609604817,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,38.3289124668435,20.174610152005823,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,32.559681697612724,8.430993583997726,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoARIMA,23.541114058355433,3.8316800542679386,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoETS,22.148541114058354,-24.06197476117884,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,21.68435013262599,-29.595393529303713,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,20.822281167108752,4.200265666572001,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.098143236074264,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +Drift,13.925729442970825,-36.91555319026642,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 6ff72f510c3ac8e8415b49ccb1b812954aec8928..fef531522ebfde3099501825bd25a9e405fe86fb 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.30219780219781,45.99295404026385,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,82.28021978021977,40.95974538328001,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,79.8076923076923,40.431908864449696,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.53296703296705,40.25120913531922,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.60989010989012,43.430525812131435,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,74.5879120879121,43.103980194426214,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,69.5054945054945,38.501099243397576,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,68.95604395604396,39.746283079915145,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.99450549450549,37.015923795326046,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.07142857142858,39.634990899313024,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,62.36263736263735,35.74711028493935,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.692307692307686,35.346534587472554,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,57.55494505494505,35.238708603025636,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.59340659340659,34.54029716114274,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,54.53296703296703,33.916952411684484,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.84615384615385,33.68160197994784,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TFT,52.609890109890124,34.858358688960024,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.368131868131854,31.420585268607393,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -PatchTST,43.818681318681314,28.17762114987711,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,41.9642857142857,28.82551876839535,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 -LightGBM,29.39560439560439,13.804281918946282,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,28.640109890109887,11.001763956139254,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -AutoARIMA,27.129120879120876,10.956865003323434,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -CatBoost,26.098901098901095,13.30060154143199,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,16.208791208791208,-24.269495322854407,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.208791208791208,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,15.659340659340657,-4.896832310667398,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.271978021978022,-50.976730476610335,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.395604395604396,-57.44553171159505,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.14588859416446,45.99295404026385,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,81.16710875331563,40.95974538328001,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,79.0450928381963,40.431908864449696,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.51458885941646,40.25120913531922,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,76.79045092838194,43.430525812131435,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,73.87267904509284,43.103980194426214,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,73.342175066313,43.02532257188423,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,68.83289124668434,38.501099243397576,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,68.03713527851458,39.746283079915145,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.3740053050398,37.015923795326046,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,64.9867374005305,39.634990899313024,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,61.40583554376657,35.74711028493935,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +FlowState,56.63129973474801,35.238708603025636,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,56.631299734748,35.346534587472554,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.57029177718832,34.54029716114274,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,53.44827586206896,33.916952411684484,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,52.785145888594165,33.68160197994784,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,51.59151193633954,34.858358688960024,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.368700265251974,31.420585268607393,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +PatchTST,42.9708222811671,28.17762114987711,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,40.91511936339521,28.82551876839535,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +LightGBM,28.381962864721483,13.804281918946282,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,27.78514588859416,11.001763956139254,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoARIMA,26.326259946949605,10.956865003323434,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +CatBoost,25.331564986737398,13.30060154143199,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,15.782493368700266,-24.269495322854407,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.649867374005305,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,15.119363395225463,-4.896832310667398,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.952254641909816,-50.976730476610335,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.244031830238727,-57.44553171159505,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv index 1e758197768dc197a57c010a40e5be9462bb2df9..9a972c913f4eebb5dbc980fbd28575364329f5d0 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -3,9 +3,10 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.107,0.04,0.174 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.11,0.043,0.177 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.045,0.001,0.092 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.112,0.04,0.182 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.021,-0.014,0.058 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.112,0.04,0.182 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.081,0.038,0.119 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.081,0.04,0.122 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.137,0.066,0.203 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.078,0.038,0.118 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.145,0.072,0.212 @@ -13,15 +14,15 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.136,0.072,0.201 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.142,0.073,0.202 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.141,0.078,0.202 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.158,0.092,0.222 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.174,0.1,0.245 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.354,0.278,0.422 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.12,-0.211,-0.042 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.654,0.003,-0.004,0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.07,-0.162,0.004 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.005,-0.008,0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.096,-0.205,0.001 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.005,-0.008,0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.029,-0.097,0.024 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.03,-0.103,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.034,0.011,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.033,-0.13,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.042,0.012,0.074 @@ -29,15 +30,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.032,0.02,0.046 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.039,0.004,0.069 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.038,0.007,0.066 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.057,0.034,0.083 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.074,0.043,0.107 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.276,0.21,0.34 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.124,-0.214,-0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.346,0.692,-0.003,-0.011,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.073,-0.162,-0.001 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.002,-0.013,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.1,-0.208,-0.003 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.002,-0.013,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.033,-0.098,0.02 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.033,-0.106,0.033 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.031,0.007,0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.036,-0.133,0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.039,0.01,0.071 @@ -45,15 +46,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.029,0.016,0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.035,-0.0,0.067 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.035,0.005,0.062 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.054,0.028,0.083 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.071,0.04,0.102 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.274,0.211,0.335 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.047,-0.101,-0.001 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.065,-0.004,0.139 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.068,0.001,0.14 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.07,-0.001,0.147 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.025,-0.087,0.028 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.07,-0.001,0.147 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.038,-0.02,0.091 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.037,-0.012,0.084 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.097,0.031,0.165 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.034,-0.02,0.085 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.104,0.032,0.177 @@ -61,31 +62,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.095,0.029,0.163 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.101,0.03,0.169 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.1,0.031,0.175 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.118,0.055,0.181 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.134,0.063,0.205 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.323,0.243,0.395 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.126,-0.222,-0.042 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.005,-0.019,0.008 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.002,-0.016,0.013 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.075,-0.172,0.001 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.102,-0.213,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.035,-0.101,0.016 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.029,0.011,0.048 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.039,-0.142,0.043 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.847,0.037,0.012,0.062 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.027,0.014,0.041 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.033,0.002,0.062 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.576,0.885,0.033,0.004,0.06 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.052,0.025,0.08 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.069,0.039,0.098 -Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.272,0.206,0.336 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.022,-0.062,0.013 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.088,-0.001,0.17 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.091,0.003,0.172 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.025,-0.029,0.08 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.093,0.002,0.175 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.093,0.002,0.175 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.061,0.003,0.113 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.061,0.009,0.116 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.119,0.032,0.197 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.058,0.011,0.101 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.126,0.038,0.206 @@ -93,15 +78,31 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.615,0.423,0.77,0.117,0.034,0.194 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.123,0.036,0.198 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.122,0.043,0.198 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.14,0.054,0.22 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.156,0.071,0.231 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.34,0.265,0.41 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.126,-0.222,-0.042 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.005,-0.019,0.008 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.002,-0.016,0.013 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.075,-0.172,0.001 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.102,-0.213,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.035,-0.101,0.016 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.035,-0.11,0.029 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.029,0.011,0.048 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.039,-0.142,0.043 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.847,0.037,0.012,0.062 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.027,0.014,0.041 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.033,0.002,0.062 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.576,0.885,0.033,0.004,0.06 +Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.052,0.025,0.08 +Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.272,0.206,0.336 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.088,-0.135,-0.039 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.029,-0.025,0.088 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.032,-0.021,0.089 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.039,-0.1,0.019 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.034,-0.016,0.091 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.065,-0.127,-0.003 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.034,-0.016,0.091 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.0,-0.048,0.048 citras-fm,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.061,0.015,0.112 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.003,-0.052,0.044 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.069,0.02,0.123 @@ -109,15 +110,31 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.06,0.015,0.113 citras-fm,FlowState,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.066,0.023,0.111 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.065,0.024,0.112 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.084,0.033,0.141 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.101,0.045,0.161 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.297,0.224,0.36 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.088,-0.14,-0.041 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.029,-0.039,0.094 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.032,-0.034,0.096 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.039,-0.091,0.012 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.065,-0.131,-0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.034,-0.029,0.099 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.0,-0.051,0.046 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.062,-0.002,0.125 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.003,-0.066,0.055 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.538,0.885,0.07,0.006,0.132 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.06,0.002,0.121 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.654,0.5,0.808,0.066,0.0,0.129 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.066,-0.001,0.132 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.084,0.022,0.143 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.297,0.215,0.37 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.159,-0.255,-0.07 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.035,-0.063,-0.011 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.032,-0.059,-0.007 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.107,-0.198,-0.032 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.029,-0.051,-0.011 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.135,-0.246,-0.034 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.029,-0.051,-0.011 TiRex,citras-fm,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.065,-0.126,-0.015 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.066,-0.143,0.002 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.069,-0.171,0.013 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.519,0.327,0.731,0.008,-0.015,0.033 @@ -125,15 +142,15 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.001,-0.024,0.017 TiRex,FlowState,0.481,0.308,0.654,0.005,-0.022,0.033 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.558,0.385,0.731,0.004,-0.021,0.032 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.558,0.365,0.731,0.024,-0.003,0.056 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.042,0.014,0.069 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.251,0.191,0.308 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.084,-0.133,-0.039 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.032,-0.05,0.115 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.035,-0.043,0.117 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.035,-0.093,0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.037,-0.045,0.124 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.061,-0.112,-0.012 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.037,-0.045,0.124 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.003,-0.046,0.049 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.003,-0.059,0.062 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.065,-0.014,0.146 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.073,-0.003,0.152 @@ -141,15 +158,15 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.063,-0.016,0.142 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.069,-0.011,0.143 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.069,0.002,0.143 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.087,0.008,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.104,0.018,0.188 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.299,0.216,0.373 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.169,-0.269,-0.077 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.044,-0.08,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.04,-0.076,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.116,-0.214,-0.033 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.308,0.153,0.5,-0.038,-0.066,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.144,-0.259,-0.04 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.308,0.153,0.5,-0.038,-0.066,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.075,-0.14,-0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.308,0.115,0.462,-0.075,-0.152,-0.006 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.481,0.269,0.673,-0.009,-0.034,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.078,-0.179,0.003 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -157,15 +174,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.01,-0.044,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.004,-0.035,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.769,-0.004,-0.033,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.808,0.016,-0.028,0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.034,-0.002,0.068 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.245,0.182,0.306 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.158,-0.252,-0.077 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.033,-0.048,-0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.03,-0.044,-0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.105,-0.195,-0.029 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.028,-0.043,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.385,0.23,0.577,-0.133,-0.241,-0.035 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.028,-0.043,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.064,-0.128,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.064,-0.138,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.001,-0.018,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.067,-0.166,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.01,-0.02,0.042 @@ -173,15 +190,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.423,0.268,0.615,0.006,-0.028,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.006,-0.025,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.025,0.002,0.052 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.043,0.016,0.073 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.252,0.188,0.315 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.165,-0.253,-0.079 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.04,-0.074,-0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.037,-0.071,0.0 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.112,-0.204,-0.031 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.034,-0.066,-0.002 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.14,-0.246,-0.037 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.034,-0.066,-0.002 FlowState,citras-fm,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.071,-0.125,-0.024 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.346,0.192,0.5,-0.071,-0.149,-0.0 FlowState,TiRex,0.519,0.346,0.692,-0.005,-0.034,0.022 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.074,-0.167,0.011 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.004,-0.027,0.034 @@ -189,15 +206,15 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.732,-0.006,-0.039,0.027 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.001,-0.029,0.034 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.307,0.635,0.019,-0.019,0.062 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.037,-0.003,0.077 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.247,0.177,0.309 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.164,-0.254,-0.085 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.039,-0.071,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.036,-0.066,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.112,-0.213,-0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.424,-0.034,-0.064,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.14,-0.248,-0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.424,-0.034,-0.064,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.07,-0.126,-0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.07,-0.153,0.001 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.442,0.269,0.615,-0.004,-0.034,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.074,-0.167,-0.002 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.231,0.596,0.004,-0.025,0.032 @@ -205,15 +222,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.006,-0.037,0.025 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.001,-0.035,0.028 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.423,0.731,0.02,-0.022,0.064 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.038,-0.001,0.077 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.248,0.188,0.306 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.188,-0.285,-0.101 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.06,-0.091,-0.035 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.057,-0.091,-0.029 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.134,-0.221,-0.058 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.055,-0.087,-0.026 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.163,-0.282,-0.057 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.055,-0.087,-0.026 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.091,-0.164,-0.034 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.092,-0.167,-0.023 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.442,0.269,0.635,-0.024,-0.059,0.003 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.095,-0.203,-0.008 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.558,-0.016,-0.061,0.027 @@ -221,31 +238,15 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.026,-0.055,-0.002 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.693,-0.019,-0.066,0.018 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.577,-0.02,-0.068,0.021 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.018,-0.018,0.053 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.233,0.167,0.293 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.21,-0.324,-0.111 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.08,-0.12,-0.045 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.077,-0.114,-0.042 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.155,-0.257,-0.068 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.074,-0.109,-0.04 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.184,-0.3,-0.076 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.112,-0.192,-0.047 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.044,-0.074,-0.014 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.116,-0.231,-0.018 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.035,-0.073,0.002 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.045,-0.079,-0.016 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.039,-0.083,0.003 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.039,-0.083,0.001 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.019,-0.056,0.018 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.167,0.276 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.548,-0.729,-0.384 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.382,-0.514,-0.266 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.377,-0.504,-0.267 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.478,-0.652,-0.321 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.375,-0.505,-0.259 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.515,-0.695,-0.36 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.375,-0.505,-0.259 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.423,-0.563,-0.289 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.423,-0.586,-0.273 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.335,-0.445,-0.237 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.428,-0.596,-0.276 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.324,-0.441,-0.223 @@ -253,5 +254,4 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.337,-0.46,-0.231 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.329,-0.447,-0.215 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.33,-0.44,-0.232 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.303,-0.415,-0.201 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.381,-0.201 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv index 4cbda69c27e9202a8d0ae99b3a828bc886aa4493..e7993b39fe219288b6e4221b0530983f1fc5436d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.104,0.037,0.17 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.107,0.041,0.173 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.046,0.003,0.094 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.111,0.041,0.178 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.107,0.041,0.173 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.027,-0.009,0.067 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.111,0.041,0.178 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.084,0.048,0.12 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.141,0.072,0.204 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.105,0.06,0.145 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.082,0.044,0.12 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.137,0.072,0.202 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.159,0.083,0.225 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.167,0.099,0.227 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.178,0.111,0.242 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.161,0.096,0.219 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.178,0.104,0.248 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.178,0.111,0.242 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.368,0.497 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.116,-0.204,-0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.538,0.346,0.692,0.004,-0.003,0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.064,-0.157,0.009 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.008,-0.003,0.02 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.538,0.346,0.692,0.004,-0.003,0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.085,-0.194,0.015 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.008,-0.003,0.02 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.022,-0.093,0.043 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.042,0.016,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.002,-0.064,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.024,-0.12,0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.038,0.025,0.054 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.062,0.029,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.071,0.039,0.104 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.083,0.055,0.111 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.064,0.029,0.097 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.083,0.051,0.117 +Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.083,0.055,0.111 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.312,0.433 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.12,-0.209,-0.043 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.462,0.308,0.654,-0.004,-0.012,0.003 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.068,-0.162,0.007 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.004,-0.008,0.015 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.09,-0.198,0.008 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.038,0.013,0.065 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.002,-0.07,0.051 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.028,-0.125,0.049 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.034,0.021,0.048 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.058,0.025,0.092 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.067,0.035,0.101 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.079,0.051,0.108 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.061,0.028,0.091 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.08,0.048,0.112 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.312,0.43 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.049,-0.104,-0.003 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.06,-0.009,0.136 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.064,-0.007,0.139 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.067,-0.004,0.147 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.064,-0.007,0.139 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.02,-0.087,0.038 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.067,-0.004,0.147 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.731,0.538,0.923,0.039,-0.009,0.084 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.099,0.033,0.169 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.062,0.004,0.116 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.038,-0.015,0.087 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.095,0.027,0.165 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.118,0.044,0.193 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.126,0.058,0.197 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.138,0.076,0.204 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.12,0.05,0.194 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.138,0.066,0.209 +TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.138,0.076,0.204 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.334,0.479 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.124,-0.216,-0.043 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.008,-0.02,0.003 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.004,-0.015,0.008 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.072,-0.172,0.004 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.094,-0.204,0.006 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.034,0.013,0.057 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.006,-0.069,0.044 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.032,-0.133,0.048 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.03,0.017,0.045 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.055,0.025,0.084 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.063,0.034,0.094 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.075,0.046,0.105 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.057,0.023,0.089 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.076,0.046,0.105 -Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.309,0.428 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.12,-0.209,-0.043 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.462,0.308,0.654,-0.004,-0.012,0.003 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.068,-0.162,0.007 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.09,-0.198,0.008 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.004,-0.008,0.015 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.026,-0.095,0.036 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.038,0.013,0.065 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.002,-0.07,0.051 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.028,-0.125,0.049 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.034,0.021,0.048 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.058,0.025,0.092 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.067,0.035,0.101 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.061,0.028,0.091 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.079,0.051,0.108 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.312,0.43 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.028,-0.072,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.079,-0.015,0.163 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.082,-0.008,0.165 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.02,-0.04,0.08 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.086,-0.006,0.169 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.082,-0.008,0.165 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.086,-0.006,0.169 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.058,0.005,0.113 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.117,0.03,0.195 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.692,0.538,0.885,0.08,0.022,0.134 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.057,0.008,0.098 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.113,0.029,0.192 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.136,0.046,0.217 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.144,0.053,0.217 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.155,0.07,0.235 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.138,0.059,0.21 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.155,0.067,0.235 +TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.155,0.07,0.235 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.35,0.49 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.124,-0.216,-0.043 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.008,-0.02,0.003 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.072,-0.172,0.004 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.004,-0.015,0.008 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.094,-0.204,0.006 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.03,-0.101,0.034 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.034,0.013,0.057 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.006,-0.069,0.044 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.032,-0.133,0.048 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.03,0.017,0.045 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.055,0.025,0.084 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.063,0.034,0.094 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.057,0.023,0.089 +Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.075,0.046,0.105 +Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.309,0.428 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.092,-0.136,-0.051 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.021,-0.045,0.085 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.269,0.077,0.462,-0.041,-0.092,0.008 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.025,-0.038,0.087 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.062,-0.127,-0.005 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.029,-0.035,0.092 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.062,0.0,0.123 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.024,-0.026,0.069 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.002,-0.063,0.053 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.345,0.692,0.059,-0.003,0.119 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.082,0.014,0.146 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.091,0.024,0.151 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.084,0.02,0.148 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.103,0.043,0.161 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.316,0.455 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.164,-0.257,-0.078 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.044,-0.075,-0.016 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.04,-0.069,-0.013 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.11,-0.204,-0.034 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.035,-0.061,-0.013 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.04,-0.069,-0.013 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.133,-0.242,-0.031 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.035,-0.061,-0.013 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.067,-0.14,-0.0 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,citras-fm,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.042,-0.101,0.005 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.068,-0.171,0.014 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.004,-0.029,0.02 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.673,0.481,0.846,0.021,-0.002,0.045 TiRex,FlowState,0.635,0.461,0.808,0.03,0.003,0.06 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.043,0.014,0.075 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.577,0.885,0.023,-0.005,0.052 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.043,0.012,0.072 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.043,0.014,0.075 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.286,0.404 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.118,-0.17,-0.063 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.002,-0.058,0.06 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.002,-0.053,0.065 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.066,-0.131,-0.004 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.006,-0.046,0.065 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.002,-0.053,0.065 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.115,0.462,-0.087,-0.155,-0.022 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.006,-0.046,0.065 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.024,-0.074,0.025 citras-fm,TiRex,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.04,-0.005,0.091 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.026,-0.077,0.023 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.036,-0.015,0.094 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.654,0.06,0.012,0.114 citras-fm,FlowState,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.069,0.021,0.117 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.081,0.027,0.144 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.062,0.024,0.108 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.082,0.024,0.142 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.081,0.027,0.144 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.307,0.432 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.09,-0.136,-0.046 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.023,-0.059,0.107 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.027,-0.051,0.111 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.039,-0.095,0.015 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.031,-0.05,0.117 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.027,-0.051,0.111 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.06,-0.109,-0.008 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.031,-0.05,0.117 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.002,-0.056,0.059 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.064,-0.014,0.146 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.025,-0.023,0.071 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.06,-0.022,0.145 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.084,0.006,0.167 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.092,0.015,0.166 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.104,0.024,0.189 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.086,0.022,0.16 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.105,0.018,0.189 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.104,0.024,0.189 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.308,0.462 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.159,-0.254,-0.077 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.039,-0.057,-0.025 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.035,-0.05,-0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.106,-0.198,-0.028 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.031,-0.047,-0.018 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.035,-0.05,-0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.128,-0.238,-0.029 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.031,-0.047,-0.018 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.655,-0.062,-0.135,0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.004,-0.02,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.037,-0.104,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.064,-0.17,0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.025,-0.009,0.059 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.034,-0.001,0.07 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.047,0.018,0.075 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.027,-0.009,0.062 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.047,0.022,0.073 +Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.047,0.018,0.075 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.288,0.407 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.189,-0.291,-0.09 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.066,-0.106,-0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.062,-0.102,-0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.134,-0.24,-0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.058,-0.092,-0.026 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.062,-0.102,-0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.157,-0.277,-0.048 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.058,-0.092,-0.026 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.09,-0.17,-0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.519,-0.021,-0.047,0.002 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.5,0.346,0.692,-0.064,-0.128,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.091,-0.2,-0.006 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.026,-0.062,0.009 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.04 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.808,0.022,-0.023,0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.002,-0.028,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.023,-0.015,0.057 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.808,0.022,-0.023,0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.269,0.394 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.2,-0.294,-0.11 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.076,-0.116,-0.04 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.072,-0.113,-0.036 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.145,-0.245,-0.061 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.068,-0.104,-0.035 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.072,-0.113,-0.036 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.168,-0.277,-0.057 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.068,-0.104,-0.035 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.1,-0.178,-0.025 FlowState,TiRex,0.365,0.192,0.539,-0.031,-0.064,-0.003 FlowState,citras-fm,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.074,-0.133,-0.021 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.102,-0.199,-0.015 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.035,-0.075,0.001 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.042,0.022 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.384,0.712,0.013,-0.029,0.059 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.007,-0.041,0.029 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.014,-0.03,0.052 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.384,0.712,0.013,-0.029,0.059 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.324,0.259,0.389 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.216,-0.319,-0.125 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.09,-0.125,-0.058 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.086,-0.122,-0.054 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.16,-0.257,-0.082 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.082,-0.117,-0.048 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.183,-0.308,-0.075 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.045,-0.081,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.088,-0.168,-0.028 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.116,-0.233,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.049,-0.081,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.558,-0.023,-0.071,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.616,-0.013,-0.062,0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.346,0.673,-0.02,-0.075,0.025 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.001,-0.036,0.039 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.315,0.249,0.385 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.192,-0.28,-0.106 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.069,-0.108,-0.029 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.064,-0.101,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.137,-0.24,-0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.06,-0.097,-0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.064,-0.101,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.16,-0.266,-0.063 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.06,-0.097,-0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.092,-0.174,-0.02 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.115,0.423,-0.024,-0.055,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.066,-0.121,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.094,-0.19,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.028,-0.066,0.009 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.002,-0.03,0.027 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.007,-0.03,0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.327,0.654,0.02,-0.025,0.07 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.021,-0.023,0.063 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.327,0.654,0.02,-0.025,0.07 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.273,0.388 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.217,-0.33,-0.116 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.091,-0.132,-0.054 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.087,-0.126,-0.05 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.161,-0.264,-0.071 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.082,-0.117,-0.049 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.184,-0.307,-0.072 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.045,-0.078,-0.012 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.089,-0.166,-0.025 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.117,-0.234,-0.018 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.05,-0.079,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.023,-0.061,0.015 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.014,-0.054,0.029 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.001,-0.041,0.035 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.021,-0.067,0.023 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.256,0.378 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.216,-0.319,-0.125 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.09,-0.125,-0.058 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.16,-0.257,-0.082 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.086,-0.122,-0.054 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.183,-0.308,-0.075 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.082,-0.117,-0.048 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.114,-0.192,-0.045 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.045,-0.081,-0.014 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.088,-0.168,-0.028 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.116,-0.233,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.049,-0.081,-0.018 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.558,-0.023,-0.071,0.023 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.616,-0.013,-0.062,0.029 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.346,0.673,-0.02,-0.075,0.025 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.315,0.249,0.385 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-0.987,-0.581 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.765,-0.454 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.586,-0.754,-0.453 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.694,-0.92,-0.5 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.58,-0.749,-0.446 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.586,-0.754,-0.453 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.728,-0.962,-0.539 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.58,-0.749,-0.446 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-0.834,-0.462 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.526,-0.679,-0.401 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.589,-0.761,-0.444 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.858,-0.445 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.686,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.493,-0.65,-0.368 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.48,-0.638,-0.35 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.46,-0.627,-0.331 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.633,-0.376 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.459,-0.608,-0.344 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.46,-0.627,-0.331 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv index ba0cb0082aaeb2c32cb70865a0a3a5bd7b8d4c62..d23594b4694348007eb2241c1ecb1c7f9364df7d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.095,0.019,0.17 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.099,0.028,0.168 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.095,0.019,0.17 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.104,0.03,0.173 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.048,0.002,0.096 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.053,-0.002,0.103 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.045,-0.012,0.099 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.086,0.041,0.13 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.122,0.054,0.188 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.103,0.035,0.178 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.141,0.074,0.204 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.149,0.075,0.214 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.156,0.089,0.221 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.149,0.081,0.219 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.156,0.089,0.221 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.146,0.079,0.202 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.13,0.071,0.194 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.376,0.282,0.449 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.104,-0.204,-0.02 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.005,-0.012,0.025 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.01,-0.003,0.026 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.052,-0.153,0.034 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.055,-0.17,0.057 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.01,-0.081,0.053 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.03,0.006,0.053 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.01,-0.1,0.109 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.051,0.016,0.094 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.06,0.02,0.109 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.068,0.029,0.113 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.06,0.011,0.118 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.057,0.015,0.097 -Toto-2.0-1B,Sundial-Base,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.039,-0.069,0.14 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.31,0.223,0.392 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.11,-0.202,-0.029 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.005,-0.026,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.005,-0.026,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.006,-0.007,0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.057,-0.158,0.028 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.051,-0.139,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.06,-0.174,0.05 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.014,-0.084,0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.026,0.005,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.005,-0.109,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.047,0.019,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.055,0.019,0.099 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.064,0.026,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.056,0.014,0.105 +Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.064,0.026,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.052,0.012,0.09 -Toto-2.0-313m,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.034,-0.073,0.132 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.307,0.221,0.386 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.104,-0.204,-0.02 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.005,-0.012,0.025 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.01,-0.003,0.026 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.052,-0.153,0.034 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.046,-0.136,0.034 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.055,-0.17,0.057 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.01,-0.081,0.053 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.03,0.006,0.053 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.01,-0.1,0.109 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.051,0.016,0.094 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.06,0.02,0.109 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.06,0.011,0.118 +Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.068,0.029,0.113 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.057,0.015,0.097 +Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.31,0.223,0.392 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.116,-0.209,-0.031 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.011,-0.027,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.006,-0.018,0.007 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.011,-0.027,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.063,-0.16,0.02 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.057,-0.143,0.019 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.346,0.692,-0.066,-0.174,0.041 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.02,-0.088,0.038 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.02,0.002,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.001,-0.108,0.094 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.041,0.011,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.05,0.012,0.097 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.058,0.019,0.099 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.05,0.005,0.099 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.058,0.019,0.099 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.047,0.006,0.086 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Sundial-Base,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.028,-0.075,0.128 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.303,0.219,0.384 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.05,-0.106,-0.002 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.049,-0.035,0.133 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.054,-0.029,0.137 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.049,-0.035,0.133 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.059,-0.02,0.138 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.006,-0.049,0.06 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.003,-0.078,0.069 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.04,-0.024,0.102 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.078,0.004,0.154 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.058,-0.019,0.139 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.098,0.027,0.167 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.106,0.033,0.182 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.114,0.041,0.183 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.107,0.025,0.193 +TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.114,0.041,0.183 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.103,0.027,0.175 -TiRex-2,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.086,0.001,0.169 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.344,0.247,0.425 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.056,-0.114,0.002 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.048,-0.027,0.122 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.044,-0.035,0.12 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.054,-0.02,0.125 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.006,-0.064,0.047 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.009,-0.061,0.04 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.035,-0.019,0.084 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.073,0.01,0.137 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.053,-0.008,0.111 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.093,0.018,0.163 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.101,0.029,0.168 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.101,0.027,0.173 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.109,0.035,0.176 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.098,0.021,0.166 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.341,0.266,0.408 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.047,-0.11,0.012 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.052,-0.061,0.145 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.056,-0.053,0.148 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.052,-0.061,0.145 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.654,0.062,-0.043,0.148 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.003,-0.074,0.072 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.009,-0.042,0.058 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.043,-0.024,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.081,-0.016,0.164 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.061,-0.003,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.1,0.002,0.189 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.109,0.018,0.192 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.116,0.015,0.206 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.109,0.021,0.191 +TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.116,0.015,0.206 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.106,0.011,0.188 -TabPFN-TS-3,Sundial-Base,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.089,0.008,0.164 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.346,0.261,0.422 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.094,-0.149,-0.042 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.009,-0.056,0.075 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.014,-0.044,0.078 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.009,-0.056,0.075 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.02,-0.039,0.081 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.042,-0.114,0.024 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.036,-0.091,0.019 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.045,-0.117,0.023 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.04,-0.013,0.095 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.019,-0.043,0.08 citras-fm,TiRex,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.06,0.009,0.11 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.069,0.014,0.126 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.077,0.019,0.137 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.069,0.02,0.123 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.077,0.019,0.137 citras-fm,FlowState,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.066,0.014,0.112 -citras-fm,Sundial-Base,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.048,-0.04,0.125 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.317,0.235,0.384 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.139,-0.232,-0.057 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.031,-0.055,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.027,-0.046,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.031,-0.055,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.021,-0.039,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.085,-0.181,-0.004 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.079,-0.158,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.088,-0.197,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.041,-0.105,0.013 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.022,-0.126,0.071 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.021,-0.012,0.058 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.03,-0.011,0.078 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.039,-0.002,0.079 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.031,-0.011,0.077 +Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.039,-0.002,0.079 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.654,0.5,0.808,0.027,-0.018,0.066 -Toto-2.0-22m,Sundial-Base,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.008,-0.099,0.104 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.289,0.209,0.365 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.115,-0.216,-0.036 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.01,-0.123,0.091 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.005,-0.112,0.098 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.01,-0.123,0.091 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.001,-0.103,0.098 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.062,-0.161,0.018 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.056,-0.125,0.008 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.065,-0.135,0.003 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.019,-0.086,0.041 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.021,-0.076,0.112 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.042,-0.07,0.138 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.047,0.137 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.059,-0.056,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.035,0.132 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.059,-0.056,0.163 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.047,-0.06,0.132 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.029,-0.086,0.132 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.304,0.213,0.381 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.164,-0.256,-0.08 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.054,-0.104,-0.017 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.049,-0.085,-0.019 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.054,-0.104,-0.017 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.043,-0.084,-0.011 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.108,-0.201,-0.027 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.102,-0.195,-0.018 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.112,-0.233,-0.002 TiRex,citras-fm,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.064,-0.124,-0.009 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.022,-0.061,0.012 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.044,-0.161,0.065 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.558,0.365,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.041 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.442,0.269,0.615,0.018,-0.013,0.051 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.481,0.308,0.673,0.01,-0.028,0.06 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.442,0.269,0.615,0.018,-0.013,0.051 TiRex,FlowState,0.519,0.346,0.692,0.006,-0.029,0.041 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.462,0.808,-0.013,-0.12,0.076 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.273,0.184,0.352 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.175,-0.273,-0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.063,-0.122,-0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.058,-0.11,-0.019 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.063,-0.122,-0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.052,-0.107,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.119,-0.222,-0.034 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.112,-0.202,-0.03 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.122,-0.238,-0.019 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.074,-0.144,-0.014 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.031,-0.085,0.011 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.053,-0.159,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.442,0.25,0.635,-0.009,-0.043,0.023 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.046,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.674,0.001,-0.039,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.046,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.003,-0.048,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.022,-0.12,0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.267,0.184,0.338 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.185,-0.284,-0.098 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.073,-0.128,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.068,-0.114,-0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.062,-0.11,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.129,-0.223,-0.043 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.132,-0.26,-0.016 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.083,-0.159,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.04,-0.086,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.063,-0.195,0.053 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.558,0.385,0.731,-0.018,-0.054,0.013 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.067,0.044 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.596,-0.008,-0.073,0.062 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.012,-0.065,0.03 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.769,-0.032,-0.143,0.065 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.26,0.164,0.341 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.175,-0.28,-0.089 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.064,-0.133,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.059,-0.118,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.064,-0.133,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.053,-0.109,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.119,-0.24,-0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.113,-0.21,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.123,-0.236,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.074,-0.14,-0.02 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.032,-0.083,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.054,-0.152,0.034 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.519,0.327,0.692,-0.01,-0.064,0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.326,0.673,-0.001,-0.044,0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.731,0.008,-0.066,0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.731,0.008,-0.066,0.068 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.327,0.673,-0.004,-0.072,0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.519,0.327,0.692,-0.023,-0.128,0.067 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.266,0.183,0.339 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.185,-0.284,-0.098 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.068,-0.114,-0.027 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.073,-0.128,-0.029 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.062,-0.11,-0.02 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.129,-0.223,-0.043 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.122,-0.214,-0.036 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.132,-0.26,-0.016 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.083,-0.159,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.04,-0.086,0.002 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.063,-0.195,0.053 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.558,0.385,0.731,-0.018,-0.054,0.013 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.067,0.044 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.596,-0.008,-0.073,0.062 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.012,-0.065,0.03 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.26,0.164,0.341 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.171,-0.253,-0.086 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.06,-0.108,-0.016 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.055,-0.098,-0.012 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.06,-0.108,-0.016 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.049,-0.094,-0.006 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.115,-0.212,-0.027 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.109,-0.199,-0.021 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.118,-0.231,-0.011 FlowState,citras-fm,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.07,-0.126,-0.014 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.346,0.192,0.5,-0.028,-0.07,0.018 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.05,-0.152,0.056 FlowState,TiRex,0.481,0.308,0.654,-0.006,-0.043,0.028 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.003,-0.04,0.046 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.012,-0.031,0.061 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.673,0.004,-0.043,0.067 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.012,-0.031,0.061 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.558,0.385,0.75,-0.019,-0.118,0.069 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.269,0.178,0.347 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.149,-0.241,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.04,-0.162,0.064 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.035,-0.153,0.068 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.029,-0.146,0.07 -Sundial-Base,TiRex-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.094,-0.203,-0.001 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.097,-0.196,-0.008 -Sundial-Base,citras-fm,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.05,-0.143,0.038 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-22m,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.008,-0.116,0.09 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.03,-0.153,0.08 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.365,0.192,0.538,0.013,-0.083,0.107 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.022,-0.072,0.107 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.404,0.231,0.577,0.031,-0.069,0.125 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.481,0.308,0.673,0.023,-0.072,0.113 -Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.442,0.25,0.615,0.019,-0.074,0.106 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.283,0.183,0.364 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.601,-0.814,-0.393 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.45,-0.645,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.443,-0.63,-0.284 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.45,-0.645,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.435,-0.623,-0.28 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.525,-0.739,-0.328 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.516,-0.69,-0.363 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.529,-0.73,-0.353 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.464,-0.622,-0.308 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.406,-0.574,-0.264 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.436,-0.616,-0.27 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.376,-0.544,-0.225 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.511,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.351,-0.517,-0.196 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.513,-0.225 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.351,-0.517,-0.196 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.368,-0.532,-0.217 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.394,-0.572,-0.225 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv index a87949ff5ace99d312b4919c38e154be743d097b..153bf2c942f3419b52a7b2377a17894ec7da9955 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.093,0.022,0.164 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.096,0.024,0.164 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.045,-0.001,0.094 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.051,-0.003,0.106 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.052,-0.0,0.095 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.122,0.052,0.188 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.143,0.076,0.204 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.846,0.731,0.962,0.104,0.057,0.146 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.105,0.046,0.172 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.159,0.086,0.224 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.166,0.098,0.224 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.165,0.099,0.23 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.175,0.108,0.243 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.183,0.114,0.247 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.165,0.099,0.23 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.384,0.522 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.093,-0.19,-0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -21,15 +21,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.009,-0.011,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.012,-0.002,0.029 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.044,-0.148,0.041 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.038,-0.155,0.074 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.036,-0.116,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.04,0.019,0.065 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.063,0.022,0.115 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.02,-0.053,0.085 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.022,-0.085,0.112 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.081,0.037,0.131 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.088,0.047,0.131 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.087,0.036,0.138 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.098,0.054,0.147 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.107,0.065,0.155 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.087,0.036,0.138 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.333,0.481 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.103,-0.196,-0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.009,-0.037,0.011 @@ -37,15 +37,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.385,0.231,0.577,0.003,-0.012,0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.053,-0.156,0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.047,-0.16,0.066 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.046,-0.128,0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.031,0.014,0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.054,0.021,0.09 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.011,-0.056,0.066 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.013,-0.097,0.104 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.073,0.032,0.121 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.08,0.042,0.122 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.079,0.033,0.131 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.09,0.047,0.134 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.099,0.061,0.139 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.079,0.033,0.131 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.333,0.471 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.106,-0.196,-0.025 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.012,-0.03,0.002 @@ -53,15 +53,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.769,-0.003,-0.018,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.056,-0.158,0.027 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.05,-0.161,0.059 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.049,-0.127,0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.028,0.011,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.051,0.016,0.092 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.008,-0.058,0.068 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.01,-0.093,0.098 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.07,0.031,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.077,0.036,0.12 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.076,0.031,0.122 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.087,0.046,0.133 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.096,0.057,0.137 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.076,0.031,0.122 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.329,0.473 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.047,-0.104,0.001 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.042,-0.043,0.129 @@ -69,15 +69,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.05,-0.031,0.135 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.053,-0.028,0.137 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.006,-0.078,0.082 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.007,-0.052,0.061 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.08,0.002,0.161 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.102,0.031,0.173 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.061,-0.001,0.121 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.063,-0.006,0.135 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.12,0.044,0.196 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.126,0.052,0.194 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.125,0.045,0.209 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.136,0.067,0.203 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.144,0.068,0.221 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.125,0.045,0.209 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.355,0.506 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.053,-0.119,0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.036,-0.08,0.134 @@ -85,31 +85,47 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.045,-0.071,0.138 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.048,-0.063,0.139 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.006,-0.089,0.073 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.001,-0.057,0.052 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.075,-0.031,0.163 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.097,-0.002,0.184 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.654,0.499,0.808,0.056,-0.016,0.118 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.057,-0.009,0.113 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.114,0.023,0.198 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.121,0.019,0.206 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.12,0.034,0.196 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.131,0.027,0.222 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.139,0.049,0.221 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.12,0.034,0.196 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.357,0.498 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.055,-0.105,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.035,-0.04,0.104 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.044,-0.028,0.113 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.046,-0.024,0.113 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.007,-0.064,0.05 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.001,-0.055,0.054 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.074,0.006,0.139 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.095,0.022,0.169 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.054,0.003,0.105 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.056,-0.002,0.109 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.113,0.043,0.179 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.12,0.047,0.185 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.13,0.059,0.198 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.119,0.048,0.187 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.361,0.492 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.139,-0.231,-0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.042,-0.07,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.032,-0.052,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.029,-0.047,-0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.087,-0.192,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.081,-0.195,0.03 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.079,-0.161,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.024,-0.012,0.064 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.021,-0.091,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.019,-0.126,0.073 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.043,0.0,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.05,0.007,0.089 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.049,0.002,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.061,0.018,0.104 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.069,0.038,0.103 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.049,0.002,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.315,0.453 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.166,-0.256,-0.083 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.067,-0.129,-0.023 @@ -117,15 +133,15 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.057,-0.099,-0.021 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.054,-0.102,-0.016 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.113,-0.209,-0.032 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.107,-0.225,0.002 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.105,-0.203,-0.023 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.024,-0.068,0.012 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,citras-fm,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.045,-0.103,0.007 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.043,-0.153,0.057 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.02,-0.015,0.053 TiRex,FlowState,0.596,0.404,0.769,0.027,-0.013,0.066 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.712,0.538,0.865,0.026,-0.018,0.077 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.577,0.904,0.038,0.007,0.071 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.047,0.012,0.079 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.712,0.538,0.865,0.026,-0.018,0.077 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.299,0.439 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.269,-0.116,-0.171,-0.061 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.021,-0.093,0.051 @@ -133,15 +149,15 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.012,-0.071,0.053 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.008,-0.073,0.055 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.065,-0.138,0.001 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.192,0.501,-0.059,-0.134,0.015 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.058,-0.118,-0.003 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.02,-0.04,0.083 citras-fm,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.043,-0.007,0.094 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.002,-0.057,0.06 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.062,0.007,0.12 citras-fm,FlowState,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.07,0.017,0.118 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.068,0.019,0.125 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.08,0.021,0.143 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.088,0.026,0.151 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.068,0.019,0.125 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.328,0.457 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.118,-0.207,-0.048 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.022,-0.126,0.078 @@ -149,15 +165,15 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.013,-0.116,0.088 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.01,-0.109,0.085 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.067,-0.156,0.006 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.061,-0.128,0.009 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.06,-0.122,0.002 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.018,-0.078,0.112 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.042,-0.06,0.132 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.002,-0.064,0.054 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.061,-0.032,0.147 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.068,-0.037,0.15 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.066,-0.013,0.144 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.078,-0.027,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.087,-0.017,0.179 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.066,-0.013,0.144 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.322,0.469 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.19,-0.289,-0.094 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.088,-0.15,-0.039 @@ -165,15 +181,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.079,-0.137,-0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.075,-0.134,-0.032 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.136,-0.244,-0.046 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.129,-0.247,-0.023 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.128,-0.218,-0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.045,-0.098,-0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.02,-0.056,0.015 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.066,-0.136,-0.007 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.064,-0.172,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.008,-0.042,0.052 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.006,-0.031,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.018,-0.038,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.028,-0.014,0.068 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.006,-0.031,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.288,0.423 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.199,-0.288,-0.109 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.097,-0.151,-0.049 @@ -181,77 +197,61 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.087,-0.139,-0.043 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.084,-0.136,-0.038 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.145,-0.241,-0.055 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.138,-0.259,-0.02 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.137,-0.226,-0.05 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.053,-0.098,-0.007 FlowState,TiRex,0.404,0.231,0.596,-0.028,-0.071,0.013 FlowState,citras-fm,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.075,-0.134,-0.018 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.073,-0.177,0.036 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.008,-0.055,0.04 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.326,0.674,-0.002,-0.052,0.067 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.011,-0.039,0.061 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.02,-0.033,0.065 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.326,0.674,-0.002,-0.052,0.067 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.352,0.275,0.427 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.197,-0.299,-0.11 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.095,-0.16,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.085,-0.15,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.082,-0.139,-0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.143,-0.264,-0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.136,-0.244,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.051,-0.108,-0.002 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.288,0.135,0.462,-0.027,-0.084,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.073,-0.142,-0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.071,-0.168,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.006,-0.048,0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.326,0.674,0.002,-0.072,0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.308,0.635,0.012,-0.062,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.615,0.423,0.77,0.022,-0.038,0.07 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.287,0.417 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.212,-0.32,-0.122 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.109,-0.173,-0.057 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.099,-0.154,-0.05 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.096,-0.154,-0.048 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.157,-0.255,-0.072 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.151,-0.285,-0.028 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.149,-0.247,-0.062 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.064,-0.116,-0.018 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.096,0.423,-0.039,-0.077,-0.007 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.086,-0.167,-0.022 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.084,-0.216,0.026 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.019,-0.077,0.037 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.011,-0.066,0.037 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.692,-0.012,-0.082,0.058 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.009,-0.03,0.051 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.692,-0.012,-0.082,0.058 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.345,0.266,0.421 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.224,-0.327,-0.128 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.119,-0.184,-0.069 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.109,-0.161,-0.065 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.106,-0.159,-0.06 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.168,-0.283,-0.072 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.161,-0.283,-0.052 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.075,-0.115,-0.039 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.049,-0.086,-0.012 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.097,-0.177,-0.027 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.095,-0.218,0.017 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.028,-0.073,0.014 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.02,-0.07,0.032 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.23,0.577,-0.022,-0.075,0.036 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.01,-0.053,0.029 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.27,0.408 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.197,-0.299,-0.11 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.095,-0.16,-0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.085,-0.15,-0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.082,-0.139,-0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.143,-0.264,-0.047 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.136,-0.244,-0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.135,-0.23,-0.05 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.051,-0.108,-0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.288,0.135,0.462,-0.027,-0.084,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.073,-0.142,-0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.071,-0.168,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.006,-0.048,0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.326,0.674,0.002,-0.072,0.05 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.308,0.635,0.012,-0.062,0.076 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.287,0.417 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.852,-1.093,-0.622 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.694,-0.927,-0.5 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.679,-0.891,-0.5 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-0.899,-0.491 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.768,-1.023,-0.55 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.758,-0.992,-0.556 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.755,-0.969,-0.565 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-0.83,-0.46 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.782,-0.427 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.66,-0.841,-0.488 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.882,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.734,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.544,-0.745,-0.38 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.547,-0.716,-0.403 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.528,-0.727,-0.362 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.688,-0.369 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.547,-0.716,-0.403 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 4183bfa27d9b8f159479ecae0e07c31084b11be2..e66e3c2d6e139d161a9a958eaa4912b7f61f1ff3 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures TiRex-2,80.0,34.9166343514373,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,70.00000000000001,32.87474894024488,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,68.5714285714286,31.78597649489514,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.5,28.963255047296542,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.07142857142857,34.55373879766452,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,63.92857142857144,32.47588770643868,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.21428571428572,27.93729353213241,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,62.85714285714287,32.759601774152436,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,62.5,33.38915880315173,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,61.78571428571429,33.16623383500657,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,61.24999999999999,33.79488506711863,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,60.71428571428573,27.130941962281884,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,60.0,27.02155839964281,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,56.42857142857143,26.055688762834595,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,56.07142857142857,27.354995059689568,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,54.28571428571429,31.700573837170467,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.107142857142854,30.041136052707273,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.571428571428584,28.997499277709025,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,48.21428571428572,28.071655328734924,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,48.214285714285715,29.22979017092695,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,43.92857142857143,22.70787609837541,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,32.14285714285713,5.881738752268506,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 -TFT,28.57142857142857,8.056299346355855,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.071428571428573,15.20916710141943,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,22.857142857142858,8.848833829469338,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,22.142857142857135,12.927869318522445,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.82142857142857,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.678571428571427,0.30982947391161586,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 -Drift,17.5,7.491051482058886,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,69.65517241379312,32.87474894024488,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,68.62068965517246,31.78597649489514,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.24137931034483,28.963255047296542,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.86206896551725,34.55373879766452,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,63.44827586206897,32.47588770643868,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,62.41379310344828,27.93729353213241,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,62.41379310344827,33.38915880315173,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,62.06896551724138,32.759601774152436,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,61.37931034482757,33.16623383500657,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,61.0344827586207,31.90295044124469,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,61.03448275862069,27.130941962281884,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,60.86206896551724,33.79488506711863,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,59.31034482758621,27.02155839964281,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,55.86206896551725,27.354995059689568,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,55.86206896551724,26.055688762834595,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.13793103448277,31.700573837170467,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,53.27586206896553,30.041136052707273,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.758620689655174,28.997499277709025,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,47.931034482758626,28.071655328734924,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,47.93103448275862,29.22979017092695,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.44827586206897,22.70787609837541,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,31.379310344827577,5.881738752268506,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +TFT,27.93103448275862,8.056299346355855,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.51724137931034,15.20916710141943,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,22.758620689655174,8.848833829469338,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,21.724137931034473,12.927869318522445,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.482758620689662,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Naive,17.41379310344827,0.30982947391161586,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +Drift,17.241379310344822,7.491051482058886,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv index f734dfb56ce547f11d89aa090372d6801b2176b6..2e8644bc50f812bdcab1b8891dbc1d1a6753f622 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,83.57142857142857,39.425727939082535,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,77.85714285714286,38.08875531260849,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,72.85714285714288,38.03594071146331,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,68.57142857142857,33.76977925435224,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.96428571428571,38.69101646514035,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.07142857142857,37.79500412291329,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,65.35714285714288,37.8794168351068,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,65.35714285714286,33.54660585794915,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,64.64285714285714,36.908809542631595,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,63.92857142857144,33.86938070997042,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,62.500000000000014,32.77732666419397,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,62.5,37.78506660666954,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,61.78571428571429,33.710262442699914,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.24999999999999,36.49963478571547,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,56.07142857142857,32.77403706037661,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.92857142857142,34.41096517434523,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,52.142857142857146,31.12404358258436,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,46.42857142857143,31.666899122864876,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,41.07142857142857,24.996902028028057,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,36.785714285714285,24.745890887412404,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,35.7142857142857,23.555776042271713,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,33.214285714285715,8.15543220497067,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 -TFT,32.14285714285713,13.487049535026774,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,25.35714285714285,17.70708962424181,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,24.64285714285714,17.733419411019135,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,22.5,13.730380882991922,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.107142857142854,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.464285714285714,-7.297793646802875,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 -Drift,13.214285714285715,0.404190086867684,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,83.44827586206898,39.425727939082535,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,77.93103448275865,38.08875531260849,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,72.41379310344828,38.03594071146331,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,68.27586206896552,33.76977925435224,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.37931034482757,38.69101646514035,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,65.86206896551725,36.735170870136194,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.51724137931035,37.79500412291329,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,64.82758620689656,33.54660585794915,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,64.48275862068965,37.8794168351068,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.13793103448276,36.908809542631595,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,63.79310344827588,33.86938070997042,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,62.068965517241395,32.77732666419397,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,61.7241379310345,37.78506660666954,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.37931034482759,33.710262442699914,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.517241379310335,36.49963478571547,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,55.51724137931034,32.77403706037661,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,53.44827586206896,34.41096517434523,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,51.724137931034484,31.12404358258436,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,45.51724137931034,31.666899122864876,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,40.3448275862069,24.996902028028057,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,36.206896551724135,24.745890887412404,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,35.17241379310344,23.555776042271713,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,32.41379310344827,8.15543220497067,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +TFT,31.379310344827577,13.487049535026774,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,24.482758620689648,17.70708962424181,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.793103448275854,17.733419411019135,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,22.068965517241377,13.730380882991922,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.448275862068964,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.96551724137931,-7.297793646802875,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.758620689655176,0.404190086867684,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 7afb42d412f8d14944d184c432a23dbb1b297ab9..6d5dc8d90cbf61fc9b23054398561e6a9b17416b 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-2.5,69.2857142857143,30.236433011588616,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,67.85714285714289,26.601930748682324,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.14285714285715,27.06736057976333,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,65.71428571428572,29.12048347898083,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,64.2857142857143,29.549083444333757,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,63.21428571428572,29.759653720585042,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,63.21428571428571,23.803402469752132,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,62.14285714285715,25.714346434991153,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,60.17857142857142,31.595921669939887,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.64285714285714,28.753205083598854,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,58.57142857142858,23.159110215973843,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,57.85714285714286,22.479955103457115,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,57.857142857142854,23.737937635347716,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,56.785714285714285,29.1761523445201,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,56.785714285714285,29.45241897965094,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,55.714285714285715,29.6956210738891,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,55.00000000000001,24.961571876693643,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,54.285714285714285,28.23998648969035,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.964285714285715,25.883263022341175,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,47.857142857142854,24.80079887494443,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,41.071428571428555,16.462366143379946,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.07142857142857,15.90999185953288,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.999999999999993,14.265515876146328,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,27.500000000000004,4.835755105983619,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 -Drift,25.71428571428571,6.995102476216641,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 -TFT,24.642857142857142,-0.6246028567987283,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,24.107142857142858,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 -Naive,24.107142857142854,0.09410405602899852,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,21.428571428571423,2.754946880183251,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,68.96551724137933,30.236433011588616,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,67.93103448275865,26.601930748682324,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,66.89655172413794,27.06736057976333,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,65.51724137931035,29.12048347898083,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,63.44827586206897,29.549083444333757,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.44827586206896,28.45442598437944,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,63.10344827586207,23.803402469752132,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,63.10344827586207,29.759653720585042,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,61.3793103448276,25.714346434991153,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,59.482758620689644,31.595921669939887,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +Toto-1.0,58.620689655172406,28.753205083598854,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,58.27586206896551,23.159110215973843,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,57.93103448275861,23.737937635347716,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,57.586206896551715,22.479955103457115,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,56.20689655172414,29.45241897965094,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,56.20689655172414,29.1761523445201,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,55.172413793103445,29.6956210738891,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,54.13793103448277,24.961571876693643,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,54.137931034482754,28.23998648969035,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.20689655172414,25.883263022341175,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,47.58620689655172,24.80079887494443,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,40.34482758620688,16.462366143379946,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,35.51724137931034,15.90999185953288,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,29.310344827586203,14.265515876146328,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,26.896551724137936,4.835755105983619,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +Drift,25.17241379310345,6.995102476216641,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +TFT,24.137931034482758,-0.6246028567987283,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,23.620689655172416,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Naive,23.620689655172413,0.09410405602899852,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,21.034482758620683,2.754946880183251,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv index ed84c415ae84f1dd3939172d20293ce1410b277d..23c937528da36690d429ba80d02063755b79feb4 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,72.85714285714285,40.421377709866235,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.07142857142857,40.552489916172874,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,70.35714285714289,40.356679864874486,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,70.35714285714285,37.313049400685664,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.39285714285712,41.64215770095807,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.85714285714286,37.518925534209544,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,64.28571428571429,34.86494484839163,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,63.92857142857141,34.84636139478182,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,63.21428571428571,38.88592212674449,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,62.85714285714287,40.320844847410996,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,62.14285714285713,35.47613872211428,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,61.428571428571445,34.52744790415115,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.10714285714286,38.083893021927985,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.92857142857143,38.14282869293443,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,58.214285714285715,36.31335951896396,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,55.00000000000001,35.62915272518256,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,54.28571428571429,33.50707751988894,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,53.92857142857144,32.19312847125849,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,36.78571428571429,25.255259089696292,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.42857142857142,19.925031039747566,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,35.7142857142857,24.248203702135108,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,31.428571428571434,21.67302472205549,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,30.714285714285705,15.68929320376099,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.28571428571428,18.143895495008643,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 -TFT,26.42857142857143,6.246826522995086,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,26.071428571428562,15.548311275264371,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,21.964285714285715,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 -Drift,19.285714285714285,0.8421348846480603,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.678571428571423,-6.552998310854519,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,72.75862068965516,40.421377709866235,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.68965517241381,40.552489916172874,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,70.00000000000003,40.356679864874486,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,70.0,37.313049400685664,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.75862068965517,41.64215770095807,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.58620689655173,37.518925534209544,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,64.13793103448276,34.86494484839163,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,64.13793103448275,38.86640859412728,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,63.79310344827584,34.84636139478182,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,63.103448275862064,38.88592212674449,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,62.06896551724138,40.320844847410996,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,62.06896551724137,35.47613872211428,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,61.37931034482759,34.52744790415115,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.27586206896552,38.14282869293443,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,58.10344827586206,38.083893021927985,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,57.58620689655174,36.31335951896396,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,54.48275862068965,35.62915272518256,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,53.79310344827587,32.19312847125849,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,53.448275862068975,33.50707751988894,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,36.20689655172414,25.255259089696292,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,35.517241379310335,19.925031039747566,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,35.17241379310344,24.248203702135108,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,30.3448275862069,21.67302472205549,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,29.999999999999993,15.68929320376099,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,28.62068965517241,18.143895495008643,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +TFT,25.517241379310345,6.246826522995086,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.517241379310335,15.548311275264371,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,21.55172413793104,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Drift,18.965517241379306,0.8421348846480603,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +Naive,17.41379310344827,-6.552998310854519,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv index c2d3d07db26484f3d76dd0c305082c840a07c148..76e7f8b31984d8b5ef791ebadf31d704dba82d8d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -3,288 +3,288 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.03,-0.041,0.111 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.046,0.007,0.092 TiRex-2,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.023,-0.068,0.13 -TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.061,0.126 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.084,0.014,0.165 +TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.061,0.126 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.006,-0.051,0.055 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.097,-0.012,0.196 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.021,0.091 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.036,0.002,0.069 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.044,-0.014,0.093 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.107,0.031,0.187 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.017,-0.034,0.061 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.108,0.039,0.166 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.107,0.031,0.187 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.104,0.042,0.158 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.12,0.044,0.19 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.07,0.005,0.131 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.2,0.495 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.031,-0.125,0.04 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.093,0.11 TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.151,0.132 -TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.004,-0.149,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.055,-0.033,0.157 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.004,-0.149,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.026,-0.178,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.069,-0.018,0.168 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.132,0.117 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.088,0.075 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.132,0.123 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.006,0.154 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.014,-0.094,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.08,-0.008,0.176 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.006,0.154 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.076,-0.002,0.159 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.092,0.014,0.176 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.041,-0.026,0.112 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.204,0.472 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.048,-0.102,-0.007 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.124,0.085 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.024,-0.166,0.118 -Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.154,0.112 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.04,-0.012,0.095 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.154,0.112 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.042,-0.101,0.001 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.053,-0.056,0.143 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.014,-0.054,0.022 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.01,-0.052,0.023 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.002,-0.049,0.04 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.064,-0.022,0.16 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.03,-0.114,0.028 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,0.003,0.126 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.064,-0.022,0.16 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.061,-0.014,0.133 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.077,0.004,0.159 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.04,0.08 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.318,0.17,0.455 LightGBM,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.023,-0.149,0.064 LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.152,0.131 LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.024,-0.134,0.142 LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.02,0.028 LightGBM,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.062,-0.124,0.203 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.02,0.028 LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.018,-0.155,0.089 LightGBM,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.076,-0.119,0.233 LightGBM,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.136,0.138 LightGBM,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.136,0.114 +LightGBM,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.022,-0.128,0.138 +LightGBM,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.086,-0.093,0.211 LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.006,-0.147,0.089 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.087,-0.086,0.211 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.086,-0.093,0.211 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.083,-0.079,0.19 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.099,-0.085,0.221 LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.118,0.168 LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.334,0.122,0.504 -CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.144,0.058 -CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.004,-0.14,0.129 -CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.127,0.134 -CatBoost,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.029,0.019 -CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.114,0.189 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.14,0.076 -CatBoost,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.073,-0.112,0.218 -CatBoost,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.006,-0.137,0.13 -CatBoost,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.01,-0.126,0.107 -CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.137,0.079 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.084,-0.076,0.205 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.083,-0.083,0.213 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.08,-0.071,0.185 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.096,-0.073,0.217 -CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.045,-0.115,0.157 -CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.332,0.125,0.498 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.091,-0.198,-0.014 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.058,-0.186,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.041,-0.105,0.012 TabPFN-TS-3,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.066,-0.255,0.11 -TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.234,0.102 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.234,0.102 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.189,-0.005 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.051,0.075 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.056,-0.156,0.029 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.052,-0.134,0.003 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.148,0.045 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.09,0.121 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.073,-0.185,0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.07,0.11 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.09,0.121 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.093,0.114 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.039,-0.058,0.122 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.015,-0.067,0.028 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.176,0.398 +CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.144,0.058 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.004,-0.14,0.129 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.127,0.134 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.029,0.019 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.114,0.189 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.14,0.076 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.073,-0.112,0.218 +CatBoost,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.006,-0.137,0.13 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.01,-0.126,0.107 +CatBoost,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.118,0.129 +CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.083,-0.083,0.213 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.137,0.079 +CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.084,-0.076,0.205 +CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.08,-0.071,0.185 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.045,-0.115,0.157 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.332,0.125,0.498 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.006,-0.059,0.049 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.025,-0.074,0.151 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.041,-0.001,0.091 TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.017,-0.098,0.134 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.021,-0.082,0.123 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.005,0.159 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.021,-0.082,0.123 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.014,0.193 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.027,-0.025,0.087 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.031,-0.006,0.079 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.039,-0.001,0.082 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.102,-0.005,0.22 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.055,0.076 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.103,0.01,0.195 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.102,-0.005,0.22 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.099,0.001,0.188 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.115,0.015,0.226 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.002,0.145 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.194,0.48 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.107,-0.244,0.012 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.074,-0.201,0.018 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.056,-0.167,0.053 FlowState,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.082,-0.303,0.107 -FlowState,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.078,-0.28,0.101 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.014,-0.081,0.048 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.078,-0.28,0.101 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.239,0.014 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.072,-0.213,0.064 FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.171,0.025 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.058,-0.213,0.078 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.011,-0.144,0.134 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.088,-0.212,0.013 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.135,0.139 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.011,-0.144,0.134 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.146,0.136 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.025,-0.115,0.145 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.03,-0.119,0.052 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.279,0.18,0.379 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.1,0.021 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.132,0.116 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.023,0.051 citras-fm,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.16,0.12 -citras-fm,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.006,-0.15,0.12 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.053,-0.03,0.135 +citras-fm,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.006,-0.15,0.12 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.095,0.024 citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.067,-0.069,0.176 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.004,-0.06,0.048 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.013,-0.029,0.06 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.077,-0.026,0.187 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.119,0.055 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.003,0.156 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.077,-0.026,0.187 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.074,-0.012,0.16 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.091,-0.001,0.189 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.039,-0.054,0.115 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.328,0.157,0.481 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.038,-0.075,-0.002 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.081,0.081 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.01,-0.024,0.049 TiRex,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.129,0.119 -TiRex,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.12,0.112 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.049,-0.003,0.118 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.12,0.112 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.032,-0.085,0.006 TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.026,0.146 TiRex,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.004,-0.05,0.057 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.052,0.066 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.073,-0.012,0.166 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.02,-0.063,0.015 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,-0.003,0.149 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.073,-0.012,0.166 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.07,-0.006,0.145 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.087,0.004,0.168 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.013,0.085 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.184,0.464 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.046,-0.103,0.014 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.014,-0.14,0.117 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.002,-0.042,0.047 +TS-ICL,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.16,0.113 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.047,0.129 +TS-ICL,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.019,-0.148,0.105 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.041,-0.089,0.001 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.055,-0.084,0.176 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.013,-0.064,0.028 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.07,0.049 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.065,-0.02,0.185 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.125,0.049 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.067,-0.001,0.151 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.014,0.148 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.027,-0.061,0.114 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.319,0.142,0.473 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.12,-0.231,-0.032 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.182,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.068,-0.19,0.022 +Toto-2.0-313m,LightGBM,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.094,-0.268,0.085 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.138,0.082 +Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.09,-0.27,0.077 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.113,-0.282,0.005 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.011,-0.155,0.126 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.084,-0.23,0.025 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.079,-0.199,0.012 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.07,-0.227,0.019 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.101,-0.229,0.01 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.052,0.053 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.003,-0.054,0.033 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.042,-0.144,0.049 +Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.271,0.114,0.434 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.017,-0.065,0.033 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.037,0.086 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.029,-0.029,0.102 Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.006,-0.097,0.128 -Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.086,0.121 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.068,-0.003,0.156 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.086,0.121 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.082,0.052 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.081,-0.013,0.175 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.015,-0.058,0.106 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.02,-0.015,0.059 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.052,0.111 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.091,-0.01,0.186 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.093,-0.001,0.183 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.091,-0.01,0.186 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.089,-0.002,0.173 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.105,0.003,0.197 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.054,0.003,0.111 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.203,0.482 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.121,-0.2,-0.041 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.087,-0.213,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.07,-0.144,-0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,LightGBM,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.096,-0.268,0.079 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.092,-0.257,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.027,-0.123,0.066 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.092,-0.257,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.115,-0.242,-0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.162,0.119 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.185,-0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.081,-0.175,0.003 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.072,-0.178,0.001 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.056,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.102,-0.223,0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.056,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.005,-0.046,0.029 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.013,-0.014,0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.145,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.27,0.097,0.424 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.12,-0.231,-0.032 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.182,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.068,-0.19,0.022 -Toto-2.0-313m,LightGBM,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.094,-0.268,0.085 -Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.09,-0.27,0.077 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.138,0.082 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.113,-0.282,0.005 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.011,-0.155,0.126 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.084,-0.23,0.025 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.079,-0.199,0.012 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.101,-0.229,0.01 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.052,0.053 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.003,-0.054,0.033 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.015,-0.01,0.046 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.042,-0.144,0.049 -Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.271,0.114,0.434 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.116,-0.187,-0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.189,0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.065,-0.153,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,LightGBM,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.091,-0.235,0.073 -Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.087,-0.228,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.129,0.085 +Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.087,-0.228,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.11,-0.231,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.157,0.127 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.08,-0.191,0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.076,-0.169,0.006 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.174,0.013 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.003,-0.034,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.097,-0.209,0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.005,-0.03,0.044 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.003,-0.034,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.018,-0.019,0.059 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.038,-0.146,0.054 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.274,0.095,0.44 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.136,-0.234,-0.047 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.102,-0.213,-0.014 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.084,-0.188,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-1B,LightGBM,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.11,-0.283,0.078 -Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.106,-0.277,0.068 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.041,-0.139,0.055 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.13,-0.292,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.026,-0.169,0.103 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.1,-0.233,0.001 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.095,-0.202,-0.004 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.117,-0.246,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.013,-0.048,0.014 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.015,-0.048,0.01 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.018,-0.063,0.019 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.057,-0.153,0.026 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.261,0.1,0.412 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.075,-0.151,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.127,0.025 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.087,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.05,-0.201,0.106 -Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.047,-0.186,0.103 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.015,-0.029,0.063 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.047,-0.186,0.103 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.169,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.029,-0.055,0.107 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.04,-0.129,0.051 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.092,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.027,-0.129,0.058 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.04,-0.052,0.126 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.057,-0.125,-0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.04,0.127 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.04,-0.052,0.126 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.037,-0.057,0.127 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.054,-0.027,0.133 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.183,0.423 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.536,-0.978,-0.25 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.893,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.466,-0.835,-0.204 Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.501,-1.017,-0.14 -Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.496,-0.991,-0.143 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.408,-0.661,-0.214 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.496,-0.991,-0.143 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.922,-0.241 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.388,-0.61,-0.22 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.487,-0.927,-0.187 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.865,-0.226 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.468,-0.898,-0.165 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.372,-0.767,-0.129 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.93,-0.255 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.37,-0.735,-0.107 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.372,-0.767,-0.129 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.377,-0.787,-0.105 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.352,-0.7,-0.111 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.732,-0.224 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv index 3e7027a8aaff802c1fcda7e46658c6a7de21b21d..91afb854ba7fe4c5155031e1578f9196b1e5307c 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -4,254 +4,254 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.01,0.059 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.022,-0.04,0.096 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.085,0.014,0.154 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.088,0.023,0.15 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.025,-0.026,0.083 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.026,-0.001,0.06 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.012,-0.031,0.053 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.084,0.022,0.151 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.025,-0.026,0.083 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.04,0.008,0.069 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.099,0.03,0.163 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.043,-0.005,0.087 +TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.012,-0.031,0.053 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.026,-0.023,0.077 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.099,0.03,0.163 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.086,0.02,0.144 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.046,-0.007,0.098 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.099,0.005,0.182 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.256,0.521 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.062,0.01 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.091,0.094 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.065,-0.023,0.154 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.068,-0.001,0.133 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.037,0.043 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.005,-0.032,0.03 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.01,-0.086,0.045 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.064,0.009,0.119 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.037,0.043 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.019,-0.022,0.054 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.002,0.157 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.021,-0.013,0.058 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.01,-0.086,0.045 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.005,-0.053,0.052 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.002,0.157 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.066,-0.016,0.142 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.035,0.08 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,-0.021,0.16 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.504 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.023,-0.106,0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.104,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.064,-0.006,0.141 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.068,-0.024,0.165 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.116,0.114 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.096,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.011,-0.085,0.035 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.063,-0.014,0.15 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.116,0.114 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.018,-0.05,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.078,0.004,0.156 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.102,0.114 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.011,-0.085,0.035 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.105,0.104 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.078,0.004,0.156 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.065,-0.012,0.149 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.032,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.078,0.001,0.158 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.264,0.511 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.093,-0.182,-0.014 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.07,-0.182,0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.164,0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.049,0.056 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.066,-0.195,0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.065,-0.175,0.032 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.08,-0.195,0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.106,0.105 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.066,-0.195,0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.05,-0.144,0.033 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.015,-0.006,0.041 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.047,-0.171,0.034 +Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.08,-0.195,0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.178,0.016 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.015,-0.006,0.041 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.037,0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.147,0.047 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.015,-0.121,0.142 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.338,0.182,0.488 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.177,-0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.073,-0.154,0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.072,-0.198,0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.059,0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.07,-0.157,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.068,-0.169,0.018 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.084,-0.205,0.013 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.107,0.091 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.07,-0.157,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.053,-0.145,0.024 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.011,-0.022,0.045 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.05,-0.14,0.019 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.084,-0.205,0.013 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.068,-0.141,0.001 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.011,-0.022,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.002,-0.046,0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.047,-0.159,0.041 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.142,0.135 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.335,0.163,0.479 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.026,-0.091,0.026 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.045,0.036 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.128,0.104 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.062,-0.03,0.163 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.065,-0.004,0.136 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.074,0.06 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.112,0.054 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.026,0.146 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.051,0.069 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.076,-0.007,0.165 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.002,-0.044,0.043 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.016,0.142 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.022,-0.07,0.093 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.076,-0.058,0.182 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.379,0.212,0.52 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.027,-0.064,0.001 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.005,-0.031,0.031 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.081,0.087 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.033,0.149 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.064,-0.018,0.144 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.064,0.069 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.015,-0.077,0.034 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,0.004,0.112 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.064,0.069 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.023,0.052 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.075,-0.01,0.157 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.017,-0.023,0.059 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.015,-0.077,0.034 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.0,-0.071,0.059 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.075,-0.01,0.157 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.062,-0.032,0.135 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.02,-0.025,0.07 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,-0.015,0.159 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.247,0.498 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.012,-0.056,0.03 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.01,-0.047,0.079 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.011,-0.036,0.078 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.074,-0.018,0.163 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.077,-0.013,0.17 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.057,0.101 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.035,0.072 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.073,0.004,0.162 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.068 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.088,-0.004,0.174 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.052,0.084 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.01,0.156 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.35,0.9,0.035,-0.011,0.083 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.088,-0.002,0.175 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.253,0.522 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.092,-0.178,-0.023 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.068,-0.135,-0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.067,-0.177,0.013 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.117,0.096 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.1,0.097 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.171,0.025 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.126,-0.004 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.079,-0.194,-0.004 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.171,0.025 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.121,-0.001 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.087,0.104 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.045,-0.134,0.031 +TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.079,-0.194,-0.004 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.063,-0.191,0.029 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.087,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.12,0.097 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.041,-0.106,0.011 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.016,-0.048,0.076 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.227,0.44 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.026,-0.091,0.026 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.045,0.036 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.128,0.104 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.062,-0.03,0.163 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.065,-0.004,0.136 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.074,0.06 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.026,0.146 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.051,0.069 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.025,0.061 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.112,0.054 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.002,-0.044,0.043 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.076,-0.007,0.165 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.016,0.142 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.022,-0.07,0.093 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.379,0.212,0.52 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.042,-0.074,-0.008 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.019,-0.057,0.021 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.018,-0.077,0.048 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.047,-0.034,0.126 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.051,-0.025,0.126 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.016,-0.074,0.049 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.055,0.023 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.073,0.009 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,0.001,0.108 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.016,-0.074,0.049 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.016,0.136 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.056,0.055 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.073,0.009 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.014,-0.082,0.044 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.016,0.136 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.048,-0.028,0.12 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.035,0.045 -TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.062,-0.016,0.132 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.24,0.497 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.195,-0.031 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.186,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.085,-0.185,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.015,-0.043,0.005 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.012,-0.047,0.021 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.082,-0.198,0.007 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.081,-0.186,0.01 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.096,-0.211,0.004 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.017,-0.116,0.08 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.065,-0.157,0.015 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.08,-0.177,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.051,0.017 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.059,-0.158,0.025 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.0,-0.137,0.124 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.328,0.168,0.472 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.044,-0.096,0.005 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.022,-0.061,0.013 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.021,-0.129,0.093 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.045,-0.035,0.146 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.048,-0.019,0.123 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.017,-0.063,0.023 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.043,-0.032,0.118 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.018,-0.065,0.024 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.058,0.053 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.032,-0.107,0.033 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.017,-0.064,0.023 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.013,0.152 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.046,-0.031,0.121 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.07,0.075 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.205,0.506 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.012,-0.056,0.03 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.01,-0.047,0.079 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.011,-0.036,0.078 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.074,-0.018,0.163 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.077,-0.013,0.17 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.035,0.072 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.073,0.004,0.162 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.057,0.101 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.068 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.031,-0.035,0.097 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.052,0.084 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.088,-0.004,0.174 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.01,0.156 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.35,0.9,0.035,-0.011,0.083 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.253,0.522 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.027,-0.084,0.022 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.005,-0.054,0.05 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.116,0.095 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.016,0.151 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.064,-0.001,0.124 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.002,-0.045,0.042 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.0,-0.063,0.066 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.092,0.049 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.059,-0.03,0.161 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.002,-0.045,0.042 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.014,-0.046,0.076 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.074,-0.0,0.151 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.017,-0.023,0.061 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.092,0.049 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.074,-0.0,0.151 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.006,0.123 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.06,0.091 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.06,0.197 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.214,0.526 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.195,-0.031 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.186,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.085,-0.185,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.015,-0.043,0.005 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.012,-0.047,0.021 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.081,-0.186,0.01 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.017,-0.116,0.08 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.082,-0.198,0.007 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.065,-0.157,0.015 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.179,0.013 +Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.096,-0.211,0.004 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.08,-0.177,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.051,0.017 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.059,-0.158,0.025 +Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.328,0.168,0.472 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.094,-0.168,-0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.071,-0.166,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.07,-0.175,0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.028,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.002,-0.033,0.044 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.165,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.066,-0.156,0.031 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.185,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.107,0.107 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.165,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.051,-0.137,0.027 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.017,0.048 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.048,-0.138,0.03 +Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.185,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.14,0.006 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.017,0.048 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.044,-0.148,0.046 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.129,0.14 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.337,0.162,0.491 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.048,-0.108,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.086,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.087,0.031 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.05,0.128 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.044,-0.043,0.137 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.103,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.021,-0.075,0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.1,0.65,-0.036,-0.091,0.01 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.04,-0.011,0.095 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.103,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.048,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.055,-0.026,0.136 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.081,0.065 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.1,0.65,-0.036,-0.091,0.01 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.1,0.057 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.055,-0.026,0.136 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.042,-0.048,0.129 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.055,-0.03,0.134 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.247,0.481 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.11,-0.222,-0.005 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.191,0.02 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.085,-0.187,-0.001 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.015,-0.165,0.108 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.156,0.124 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.082,-0.222,0.055 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.081,-0.189,0.015 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.213,0.002 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.017,-0.083,0.046 -FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.066,-0.152,0.016 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.0,-0.142,0.121 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.245,0.057 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.014,-0.163,0.114 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.059,-0.154,0.03 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.22,0.435 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.651,-1.086,-0.344 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-1.015,-0.319 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-1.045,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.51,-0.953,-0.223 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.505,-0.918,-0.195 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.61,-1.083,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.992,-0.328 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-1.091,-0.338 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.787,-0.293 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.61,-1.083,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.99,-0.316 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.488,-0.893,-0.202 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.581,-1.022,-0.258 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-1.091,-0.338 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.607,-1.108,-0.272 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.488,-0.893,-0.202 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.509,-0.966,-0.194 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.575,-0.927,-0.328 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.488,-0.769,-0.282 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 312a6843b4a252482c68971eff138dc8bca3f8a3..d0aebe1f1c2fcdc6c47e235a1fb45af2cfaa16d4 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -4,16 +4,16 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.05,-0.037,0.153 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.043,-0.042,0.157 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.108,0.137 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.022,0.202 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.01,-0.109,0.129 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.063,0.073 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.01,-0.109,0.129 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.025,-0.128,0.159 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.02,-0.124,0.049 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.057,0.195 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.021,0.205 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.085,-0.01,0.182 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.095,0.138 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.1,-0.007,0.209 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.085,-0.01,0.182 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.166,0.152 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.089,0.113 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.059,-0.012,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.302,0.151,0.466 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.052,-0.18,0.036 @@ -21,16 +21,16 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.006,-0.116,0.104 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.156,0.044 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.037,0.003,0.073 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.042,-0.137,0.019 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.045,-0.141,0.028 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.042,-0.137,0.019 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.026,-0.175,0.068 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.073,-0.232,0.042 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.012,-0.194,0.191 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.045,-0.002,0.099 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.038,-0.02,0.091 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.03,-0.111,0.031 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.053,0.016,0.093 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.038,-0.02,0.091 TiRex-2,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.04,-0.265,0.136 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.036,-0.145,0.04 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.01,-0.111,0.117 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.266,0.03,0.446 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.045,-0.186,0.041 @@ -38,16 +38,16 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.006,-0.116,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.128,0.059 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.043,-0.069,0.141 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.035,-0.131,0.053 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.038,-0.168,0.031 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.035,-0.131,0.053 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.135,0.079 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.066,-0.193,0.03 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.084,0.109 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.051,-0.101,0.171 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.044,-0.115,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.024,-0.153,0.076 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.072,0.167 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.044,-0.115,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.034,-0.196,0.113 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.03,-0.11,0.034 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.016,-0.04,0.071 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.271,0.109,0.406 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.159,0.097 @@ -55,16 +55,16 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.047,0.135 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.062,0.114 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.07,-0.016,0.158 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.006,-0.054,0.035 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.092,0.059 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.006,-0.054,0.035 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.009,-0.034,0.061 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.144,0.052 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,-0.141,0.185 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.078,-0.034,0.196 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.071,-0.036,0.181 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.065,0.075 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.086,-0.012,0.196 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.071,-0.036,0.181 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.165,0.134 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.001,-0.035,0.025 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.071,0.143 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.291,0.052,0.471 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.253,0.021 @@ -72,67 +72,84 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.038,-0.079,-0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.045,-0.164,0.065 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.075,-0.188,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.173,-0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.085,-0.194,0.009 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.173,-0.001 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.065,-0.214,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.114,-0.286,0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.026,-0.249,0.151 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.043,0.054 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.076,0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.145,-0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.012,0.05 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.076,0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.08,-0.321,0.104 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.076,-0.183,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.028,-0.167,0.084 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.238,-0.014,0.419 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.01,-0.148,0.099 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.04,-0.019,0.12 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.056,0.116 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.006,-0.037,0.051 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,0.001,0.148 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.083,0.057 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.03,-0.127,0.037 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.052,-0.137,0.196 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.083,-0.021,0.19 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.039,0.059 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.091,0.002,0.189 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.076,-0.024,0.175 -citras-fm,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.001,-0.163,0.144 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.005,-0.037,0.045 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.049,-0.06,0.134 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.295,0.073,0.472 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.078,0.059 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.043,-0.029,0.123 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.037,-0.032,0.144 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.062,0.084 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.078,-0.009,0.162 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.06,0.077 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.06,0.077 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.018,-0.073,0.098 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.087,0.031 TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.054,-0.089,0.201 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.086,-0.013,0.18 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.079,-0.005,0.156 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.053,0.073 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.094,0.0,0.183 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.079,-0.005,0.156 TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.139,0.133 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.044,0.069 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.052,-0.028,0.146 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.298,0.098,0.478 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.01,-0.148,0.099 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.04,-0.019,0.12 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.056,0.116 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.006,-0.037,0.051 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,0.001,0.148 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.083,0.057 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.015,-0.041,0.07 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.03,-0.127,0.037 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.052,-0.137,0.196 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.083,-0.021,0.19 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.076,-0.024,0.175 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.039,0.059 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.091,0.002,0.189 +citras-fm,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.001,-0.163,0.144 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.049,-0.06,0.134 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.295,0.073,0.472 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.026,-0.188,0.114 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.025,-0.073,0.149 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.086,0.119 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.009,-0.065,0.033 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.061,-0.038,0.177 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.019,-0.109,0.068 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.075,0.039 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.046,-0.15,0.031 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.037,-0.165,0.189 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.056,0.21 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.062,-0.061,0.196 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.004,-0.084,0.071 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.077,-0.031,0.209 +TS-ICL,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.014,-0.144,0.088 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.085,0.14 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.285,0.037,0.472 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.052,0.11 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.068,-0.044,0.188 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.062,-0.031,0.162 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.055,0.126 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.102,-0.023,0.223 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.029,-0.039,0.113 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.032,0.08 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.029,-0.039,0.113 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.044,-0.032,0.131 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.079,-0.061,0.204 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.11,-0.037,0.242 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.103,-0.025,0.22 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.045,0.126 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.118,-0.024,0.242 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.103,-0.025,0.22 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.03,-0.08,0.138 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.034,-0.041,0.101 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.077,-0.001,0.158 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.124,0.487 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.242,0.054 @@ -140,16 +157,16 @@ FlowState,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.236,0.162 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.122,0.078 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.227,0.124 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.025,-0.178,0.199 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.054,-0.245,0.12 FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.058,-0.251,0.082 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.054,-0.245,0.12 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.038,-0.232,0.142 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.086,-0.257,0.058 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.033,-0.204,0.217 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.204,0.195 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.273,0.14 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.042,-0.177,0.214 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.204,0.195 FlowState,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.053,-0.274,0.151 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.049,-0.208,0.096 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.133,0.112 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.257,0.128,0.376 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.258,0.021 @@ -157,33 +174,50 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.047,-0.109,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.207,0.092 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.084,-0.243,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.057,0.041 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.091,-0.234,0.02 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.094,-0.22,0.013 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.091,-0.234,0.02 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.074,-0.266,0.053 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.123,-0.32,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.034,-0.278,0.17 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.04,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.079,-0.187,0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.009,-0.011,0.033 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.04,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.089,-0.353,0.109 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.085,-0.231,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.037,-0.193,0.102 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.232,-0.027,0.431 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.093,-0.222,0.01 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.039,-0.1,0.019 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.046,-0.175,0.103 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.076,-0.22,0.035 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.058,0.071 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.086,-0.185,0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.213,0.024 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.066,-0.244,0.057 +Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.115,-0.282,0.025 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.243,0.169 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.027,0.038 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.07,-0.166,0.013 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.027,0.064 +Toto-2.0-22m,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.33,0.102 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.029,-0.176,0.113 +Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.237,-0.01,0.447 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.021,-0.161,0.087 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.029,-0.032,0.1 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.023,-0.082,0.133 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.081,0.061 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,0.0,0.126 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.011,-0.063,0.038 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.014,-0.079,0.051 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.011,-0.063,0.038 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.004,-0.076,0.077 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.144,0.043 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.163,0.214 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.073,-0.009,0.157 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.066,-0.014,0.143 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.081,0.004,0.159 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.066,-0.014,0.143 Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.17,0.12 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.006,-0.073,0.057 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.039,-0.077,0.133 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.288,0.053,0.476 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.111,-0.265,0.007 @@ -191,84 +225,50 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.056,-0.102,-0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.2,0.067 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.094,-0.243,0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.053,0.012 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.1,-0.232,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.104,-0.223,-0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.1,-0.232,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.084,-0.263,0.03 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.133,-0.319,0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.044,-0.272,0.151 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.009,-0.035,0.011 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.069,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.088,-0.189,-0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.069,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.099,-0.356,0.093 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.095,-0.226,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.046,-0.196,0.08 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.225,-0.025,0.414 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.093,-0.222,0.01 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.039,-0.1,0.019 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.046,-0.175,0.103 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.076,-0.22,0.035 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.058,0.071 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.213,0.024 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.086,-0.185,0.005 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.115,-0.282,0.025 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.243,0.169 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.027,0.038 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.07,-0.166,0.013 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.027,0.064 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.33,0.102 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.077,-0.203,0.031 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.029,-0.176,0.113 -Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.237,-0.01,0.447 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.011,-0.179,0.143 AutoETS,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.039,-0.158,0.21 AutoETS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.033,-0.128,0.164 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.154,0.142 AutoETS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.074,-0.116,0.243 -AutoETS,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.001,-0.168,0.14 AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.153,0.122 +AutoETS,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.001,-0.168,0.14 +AutoETS,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.096,0.126 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.031,-0.16,0.074 AutoETS,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.05,-0.178,0.215 AutoETS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.082,-0.122,0.261 +AutoETS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.114,0.248 AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.01,-0.136,0.145 AutoETS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.09,-0.102,0.262 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.114,0.248 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.146,0.122 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.082,0.166 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.295,0.066,0.481 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.128,0.082 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.035,-0.042,0.127 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.029,-0.035,0.099 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.001,-0.026,0.034 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.071,-0.012,0.155 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.005,-0.048,0.036 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.074,0.042 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.035,-0.112,0.039 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.047,-0.106,0.172 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.078,-0.03,0.188 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.006,-0.061,0.068 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.086,-0.007,0.184 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.071,-0.032,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.139,0.128 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.043,0.124 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.292,0.081,0.459 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.062,-0.161,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.01,-0.133,0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.016,-0.076,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.167,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.027,-0.091,0.143 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.052,-0.155,0.057 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.055,-0.171,0.027 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.052,-0.155,0.057 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.163,0.078 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.084,-0.188,0.001 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.126,0.117 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.035,-0.114,0.162 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.028,-0.127,0.149 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.04,-0.154,0.072 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.044,-0.087,0.164 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.028,-0.127,0.149 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.051,-0.199,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.142,0.041 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.259,0.102,0.399 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.433,-0.874,-0.179 @@ -276,15 +276,15 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.362,-0.804,-0.031 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.371,-0.684,-0.122 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.411,-0.889,-0.054 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.312,-0.721,0.014 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.419,-0.895,-0.078 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.424,-0.915,-0.109 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.419,-0.895,-0.078 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.398,-0.893,-0.038 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.462,-0.951,-0.141 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.346,-0.602,-0.147 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.301,-0.758,0.027 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.311,-0.809,0.009 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.404,-0.91,-0.055 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.29,-0.707,0.024 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.311,-0.809,0.009 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.417,-0.928,-0.07 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.412,-0.85,-0.089 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.349,-0.664,-0.113 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv index 07dbc476de534ca1ff776924761226120642e753..85a3ebcc7b041a478043e44ff428067749fd05d5 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.119,0.095 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.05,-0.019,0.145 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.045,0.049 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.119,0.095 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.046,-0.035,0.122 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.045,0.049 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.021,-0.11,0.055 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.085,0.001,0.166 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.025,-0.055,0.099 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.086,-0.028,0.197 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.077,0.077 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.077,-0.036,0.182 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.025,-0.019,0.081 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.002,0.181 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.097,0.191 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.037,-0.004,0.081 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.038,-0.07,0.13 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.404,0.211,0.549 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.002,-0.105,0.106 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.052,-0.018,0.138 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.088,0.1 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.049,-0.018,0.139 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.109,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.087,-0.017,0.208 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.023,0.085 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.088,-0.024,0.197 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.109,0.114 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,-0.017,0.17 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.007,0.198 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.067,-0.041,0.182 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.039,-0.028,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.04,-0.018,0.102 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.261,0.536 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.052,-0.169,0.019 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.054,-0.16,0.018 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.051,-0.138,0.004 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.054,-0.16,0.018 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.003,-0.092,0.089 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.051,-0.138,0.004 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.074,-0.213,0.029 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.038,-0.014,0.093 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.026,-0.096,0.031 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.038,-0.022,0.097 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.05,-0.15,0.034 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.028,-0.034,0.082 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.025,-0.174,0.066 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.043,0.002,0.089 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.016,-0.164,0.17 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.013,-0.092,0.052 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.012,-0.128,0.083 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.373,0.19,0.521 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.051,0.043 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.111,0.081 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.049,-0.004,0.121 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.045,-0.036,0.125 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.097,0.032 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,0.014,0.152 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.024,-0.034,0.075 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.085,-0.012,0.174 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.05,0.048 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.076,-0.014,0.158 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.089,0.014,0.16 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.063,-0.1,0.198 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.036,-0.014,0.091 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.037,-0.056,0.112 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.404,0.218,0.551 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.002,-0.105,0.106 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.052,-0.018,0.138 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.049,-0.018,0.139 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.088,0.1 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.109,0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.087,-0.017,0.208 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.023,0.085 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.088,-0.024,0.197 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.109,0.114 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,-0.017,0.17 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.028,-0.104,0.136 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.007,0.198 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.039,-0.028,0.11 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.04,-0.018,0.102 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.261,0.536 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.049,-0.139,0.034 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.051,-0.162,0.018 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.003,-0.097,0.084 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.048,-0.143,0.035 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.051,-0.162,0.018 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.048,-0.143,0.035 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.071,-0.195,0.021 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.041,-0.071,0.15 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.022,-0.141,0.042 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.041,-0.111,0.159 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.047,-0.192,0.064 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.032,-0.123,0.132 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.022,-0.135,0.072 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,-0.084,0.147 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.019,-0.074,0.107 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.01,-0.076,0.047 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.078,0.056 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.375,0.232,0.495 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.051,0.043 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.049,-0.004,0.121 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.111,0.081 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.045,-0.036,0.125 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.097,0.032 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,0.014,0.152 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.024,-0.034,0.075 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.085,-0.012,0.174 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.05,0.048 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.076,-0.014,0.158 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.024,-0.037,0.077 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.089,0.014,0.16 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.036,-0.014,0.091 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.037,-0.056,0.112 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.404,0.218,0.551 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.02,-0.058,0.099 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.045,0.098 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.03,0.176 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.022,-0.033,0.089 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.045,0.098 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.066,-0.021,0.163 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.022,-0.033,0.089 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.104,-0.014,0.215 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.045,-0.008,0.103 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.104,-0.032,0.225 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.059,0.098 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.096,-0.019,0.201 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.045,-0.021,0.117 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.109,-0.011,0.22 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.084,-0.05,0.203 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.057,-0.016,0.126 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.951,0.057,-0.013,0.128 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.242,0.564 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.093,-0.199,-0.001 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.096,-0.262,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.102,0.014 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.179,-0.014 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.096,-0.262,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.042,-0.176,0.067 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TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.022,-0.044,0.123 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.025,-0.081,0.033 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.047,-0.114,0.007 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.062,-0.022,0.151 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.062,-0.026,0.149 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.024,-0.099,0.043 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.053,-0.016,0.118 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.0,-0.099,0.079 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.067,-0.01,0.141 -TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.104,0.184 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.012,-0.046,0.072 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.067,0.096 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.389,0.216,0.543 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.094,-0.246,0.028 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.096,-0.245,0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.039,-0.107,0.021 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.211,0.012 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.096,-0.245,0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.043,-0.188,0.1 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.211,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.116,-0.291,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.0,-0.06,0.065 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.066,-0.175,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.205,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.01,-0.041,0.022 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.066,-0.24,0.061 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.005,-0.023,0.037 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.023,-0.259,0.177 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.053,-0.178,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.052,-0.209,0.086 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.348,0.132,0.525 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.084,0.072 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.128,0.098 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.048,-0.035,0.131 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.05,0.048 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.128,0.098 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.045,-0.068,0.161 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.05,0.048 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.109,0.056 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,0.009,0.152 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.023,-0.045,0.09 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.003,0.17 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,-0.005,0.157 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.024,-0.052,0.095 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.088,0.013,0.159 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.138,0.234 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.035,-0.044,0.112 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.036,-0.076,0.13 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.403,0.197,0.565 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.083,-0.222,0.035 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.205,0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.089,0.033 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.188,0.014 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.205,0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.033,-0.152,0.11 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.188,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.106,-0.251,0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.056,0.088 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.056,-0.134,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.01,-0.023,0.039 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.081,-0.186,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.055,-0.218,0.068 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.014,-0.027,0.061 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.013,-0.226,0.175 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.043,-0.15,0.064 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.042,-0.184,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.355,0.161,0.532 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.026,-0.088,0.019 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.025,-0.071,0.148 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.158,0.095 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.022,-0.078,0.119 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.025,-0.084,0.036 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.048,-0.132,0.02 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.061,-0.038,0.165 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.0,-0.086,0.09 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.062,-0.064,0.194 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.024,-0.105,0.05 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.053,-0.073,0.179 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.066,-0.037,0.185 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.012,-0.06,0.085 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.093,0.11 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.389,0.192,0.54 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.099,-0.221,0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.247,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.044,-0.097,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.098,-0.191,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.247,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.173,0.078 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.098,-0.191,-0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.122,-0.282,0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.005,-0.04,0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.071,-0.164,0.009 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.005,-0.039,0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.097,-0.189,-0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.015,-0.065,0.026 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.071,-0.228,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.028,-0.249,0.159 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.058,-0.16,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.057,-0.209,0.061 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.345,0.128,0.509 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.237,0.088 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.222,0.039 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.016,-0.205,0.141 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.068,-0.247,0.091 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.019,-0.12,0.069 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.091,-0.255,0.048 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.022,-0.186,0.209 -FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.225,0.094 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.023,-0.215,0.206 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.305,0.121 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.013,-0.212,0.184 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.027,-0.189,0.2 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.03,-0.177,0.097 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.029,-0.166,0.091 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.363,0.225,0.479 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.038,-0.088,0.004 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.123,0.027 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.013,-0.055,0.084 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.1,0.014 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.123,0.027 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.01,-0.049,0.07 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.1,0.014 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.06,-0.144,0.016 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.05,-0.037,0.136 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.077,0.044 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.051,-0.061,0.151 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.126,0.043 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.041,-0.069,0.13 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.092,0.057 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.055,-0.034,0.138 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.029,-0.108,0.151 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.077,0.073 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.381,0.215,0.518 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.039,-0.149,0.066 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.113,0.018 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.012,-0.091,0.113 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.038,-0.126,0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.113,0.018 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.059,0.073 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.038,-0.126,0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.049,0.5,-0.061,-0.147,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.049,-0.067,0.18 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.013,-0.106,0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.05,-0.094,0.173 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.037,-0.15,0.071 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.04,-0.099,0.156 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.013,-0.123,0.085 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.054,-0.065,0.173 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.028,-0.1,0.142 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.078,0.072 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.501 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.678,-1.217,-0.268 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.155,-0.354 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.595,-1.088,-0.234 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.677,-1.229,-0.279 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.155,-0.354 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.6,-0.979,-0.302 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.677,-1.229,-0.279 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-1.293,-0.32 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.535,-1.053,-0.133 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.636,-1.186,-0.275 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.535,-1.104,-0.153 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.676,-1.297,-0.246 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.55,-1.137,-0.191 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.636,-1.172,-0.237 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.527,-1.038,-0.147 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.57,-0.92,-0.291 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.617,-1.074,-0.273 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-1.006,-0.319 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 390ba3479f46bc33726ccd47d2e65d5d01290334..0a990cfc7e476392e03351071805714089fef3cc 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.79591836734696,31.297845826674763,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,86.73469387755102,29.93744282184213,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.16326530612247,30.08997810079499,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,82.14285714285715,29.655413564276433,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.61224489795919,29.34036054759431,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,77.55102040816327,28.358976057331542,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,76.53061224489797,28.869849458291053,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,89.16256157635469,31.297845826674763,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,86.69950738916256,29.93744282184213,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,83.25123152709362,30.08997810079499,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,82.26600985221675,29.655413564276433,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.29556650246306,29.34036054759431,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,76.35467980295566,28.358976057331542,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.86206896551722,28.869849458291053,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,71.42857142857143,28.6618144795166,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.3469387755102,27.624459375998768,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,66.83673469387755,26.238904121348316,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 -TFT,54.59183673469388,21.59101828180743,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.806122448979586,25.335908970299936,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.806122448979586,25.335908970299936,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.02040816326531,25.573203950705693,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,50.51020408163265,24.96481070359039,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,48.46938775510204,24.532719864713304,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,47.95918367346939,23.095596464945533,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.95918367346938,23.393412693458927,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,40.3061224489796,18.807513597537383,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,40.306122448979586,19.233879992772206,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,39.795918367346935,20.158757124750093,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,35.714285714285715,16.989509965321957,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,26.02040816326531,7.694422260326506,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoARIMA,20.918367346938773,3.300627782307375,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoTheta,18.877551020408163,2.2840445944943277,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.367346938775512,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,14.795918367346935,-16.79021320144407,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.612244897959184,-40.74006367145597,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.0204081632653061,-55.85219582340872,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,68.96551724137929,27.616306234152965,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.99507389162561,27.624459375998768,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,65.51724137931033,26.238904121348316,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 +TFT,53.69458128078818,21.59101828180743,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.47783251231527,25.335908970299936,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.47783251231527,25.335908970299936,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,50.2463054187192,25.573203950705693,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,49.26108374384236,24.96481070359039,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,48.275862068965516,24.532719864713304,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,47.29064039408866,23.393412693458927,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,46.79802955665024,23.095596464945533,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,39.4088669950739,18.807513597537383,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,39.40886699507389,19.233879992772206,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,38.916256157635466,20.158757124750093,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,34.97536945812808,16.989509965321957,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,25.1231527093596,7.694422260326506,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +AutoARIMA,20.197044334975367,3.300627782307375,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +AutoTheta,18.226600985221676,2.2840445944943277,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.733990147783253,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,14.285714285714288,-16.79021320144407,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,5.41871921182266,-40.74006367145597,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,0.9852216748768473,-55.85219582340872,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv index f10c5a90a56268c9e637df58a27871381f2b65d7..35978d37c3cc3a3d137f9aa77d8495ff4eb5f6d2 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.83673469387756,44.0257301550027,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.13300492610838,44.0257301550027,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,85.71428571428574,42.67646308976785,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,85.20408163265306,42.89784402878507,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,81.12244897959184,42.58037472652917,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,79.59183673469387,42.05186473784456,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.59183673469387,42.389618394267615,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.51020408163265,41.88624154012951,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,75.0,41.10947919178341,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,72.95918367346938,39.7795308730858,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,69.89795918367346,41.25081408595533,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 -TFT,59.18367346938776,35.28274979848835,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,54.591836734693864,37.27325369456074,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.57142857142857,39.04058286932375,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.57142857142857,37.62294495333535,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,51.53061224489795,36.53371858952617,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.275510204081634,37.28267455060899,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.275510204081634,37.28267455060899,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 -DeepAR,48.97959183673469,34.81362887689631,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,43.367346938775505,28.352379402273474,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.265306122448976,33.55369921291073,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,26.53061224489796,12.567557563101495,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 -CatBoost,24.48979591836735,18.14162293295429,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,23.46938775510204,5.668302598674924,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 -LightGBM,23.46938775510204,18.571486122225835,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.346938775510203,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,15.306122448979592,-26.740946175062753,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,10.714285714285712,-344.79628797747506,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.1020408163265305,-146.7179766143382,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.530612244897959,-161.010293113985,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,85.2216748768473,42.89784402878507,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,80.78817733990147,42.58037472652917,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.3103448275862,42.389618394267615,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,79.31034482758619,42.05186473784456,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.36945812807882,41.88624154012951,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,73.89162561576356,41.10947919178341,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,71.92118226600984,39.7795308730858,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,70.44334975369456,41.129041277782655,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,69.45812807881772,41.25081408595533,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 +TFT,58.12807881773401,35.28274979848835,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,53.201970443349744,37.27325369456074,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.709359605911324,37.62294495333535,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,52.21674876847291,39.04058286932375,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,50.73891625615763,36.53371858952617,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.0,37.28267455060899,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.0,37.28267455060899,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +DeepAR,47.78325123152709,34.81362887689631,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,42.364532019704434,28.352379402273474,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.43842364532019,33.55369921291073,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,25.615763546798032,12.567557563101495,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +CatBoost,23.645320197044338,18.14162293295429,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,22.66009852216749,5.668302598674924,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +LightGBM,22.660098522167488,18.571486122225835,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.748768472906402,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,14.778325123152708,-26.740946175062753,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,10.344827586206895,-344.79628797747506,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,4.926108374384237,-146.7179766143382,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.477832512315271,-161.010293113985,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index d512444f47eb38f526569b8bc98fee083e626a50..931834a6bd7a2def24568424324b51724b6af2c3 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.24489795918366,31.4266145251638,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,84.6938775510204,30.040761293064854,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,83.16326530612245,29.64325026676846,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,82.14285714285714,29.487453453885294,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285714,30.138028587482914,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,76.53061224489797,28.54102491089481,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.91836734693878,27.003058480070795,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,69.89795918367348,28.6697990451958,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.89795918367348,28.23741951420192,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.3469387755102,27.95924087455105,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 -TFT,57.14285714285714,22.688998509483994,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,52.04081632653062,25.32355760868511,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.78571428571428,25.18849985695557,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.78571428571428,25.18849985695557,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 -citras-fm,51.53061224489795,25.104163556462588,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.02040816326531,25.92723519256259,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,48.97959183673469,22.970522942844074,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,46.42857142857143,23.330206407241285,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,44.38775510204081,21.081187839834037,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,41.32653061224491,19.108828334469262,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,38.265306122448976,19.415152538379978,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,36.73469387755102,16.97148442691696,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,26.530612244897956,6.5098083173125705,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoARIMA,22.959183673469386,2.9139047191151235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Seasonal Naive,18.367346938775512,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,16.3265306122449,0.04374386375031181,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,13.775510204081634,-23.08073712658869,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.612244897959184,-43.56382539762269,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.0204081632653061,-58.78908533558298,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,86.69950738916255,31.4266145251638,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,84.72906403940887,30.040761293064854,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,83.25123152709361,29.64325026676846,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.26600985221675,30.138028587482914,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,81.77339901477832,29.487453453885294,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,75.3694581280788,28.54102491089481,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,69.45812807881772,28.23741951420192,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,69.45812807881772,28.6697990451958,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,69.45812807881772,27.870758295207644,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,69.45812807881772,27.003058480070795,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.50246305418719,27.95924087455105,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 +TFT,56.157635467980306,22.688998509483994,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,51.72413793103448,25.32355760868511,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.49261083743842,25.18849985695557,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.49261083743842,25.18849985695557,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,50.2463054187192,25.92723519256259,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,50.2463054187192,25.104163556462588,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.275862068965516,22.970522942844074,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,45.812807881773395,23.330206407241285,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,43.34975369458128,21.081187839834037,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,40.39408866995075,19.108828334469262,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,37.4384236453202,19.415152538379978,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,35.960591133004925,16.97148442691696,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,25.615763546798025,6.5098083173125705,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +AutoARIMA,22.16748768472906,2.9139047191151235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +Seasonal Naive,17.733990147783253,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,15.763546798029559,0.04374386375031181,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,13.30049261083744,-23.08073712658869,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,5.41871921182266,-43.56382539762269,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,0.9852216748768473,-58.78908533558298,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 71abd6ae4106c4b143e8cb092b8f7530bd3a119f..0d9826b50db47621ea37adbaf1d1ef79d211aeaf 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.28571428571429,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,85.71428571428571,43.57639471435733,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,85.20408163265307,43.23343389055629,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,83.16326530612244,43.15731600629924,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,82.14285714285715,43.095077993747296,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,76.02040816326529,40.91138061014927,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.46938775510205,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,72.95918367346938,41.75327825678771,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,72.44897959183673,41.95261502258993,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,69.89795918367346,41.89301824181608,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 -TFT,62.24489795918367,36.840744132528904,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,55.102040816326515,37.89846253371203,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,54.08163265306122,37.74075942414697,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.57142857142857,39.810526410008265,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.55102040816326,38.05335876302368,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,52.55102040816326,36.14199113093005,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.275510204081634,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.275510204081634,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,39.795918367346935,28.980793211199895,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.28571428571428,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,27.040816326530614,12.839232215840235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 -CatBoost,25.000000000000007,19.204492596603718,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,23.979591836734695,19.51045461394707,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,21.938775510204085,3.9294085240204057,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Seasonal Naive,17.857142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,14.795918367346935,-35.07795159983096,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,10.714285714285712,-351.4556695151647,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.1020408163265305,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.530612244897959,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.66995073891626,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,85.7142857142857,43.57639471435733,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,84.72906403940888,43.23343389055629,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,82.26600985221675,43.15731600629924,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,81.2807881773399,43.095077993747296,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,74.87684729064037,40.91138061014927,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,73.39901477832512,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,72.90640394088668,41.94648840704044,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,71.92118226600985,41.95261502258993,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,71.92118226600984,41.75327825678771,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,69.45812807881772,41.89301824181608,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 +TFT,61.08374384236453,36.840744132528904,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,53.69458128078817,37.89846253371203,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,53.201970443349744,37.74075942414697,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,52.21674876847291,39.810526410008265,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.72413793103448,38.05335876302368,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,51.231527093596064,36.14199113093005,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.000000000000014,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.000000000000014,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,38.916256157635466,28.980793211199895,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.93103448275861,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,26.108374384236456,12.839232215840235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +CatBoost,24.13793103448276,19.204492596603718,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,23.15270935960591,19.51045461394707,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,21.182266009852217,3.9294085240204057,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +Seasonal Naive,17.24137931034483,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,14.285714285714285,-35.07795159983096,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,10.344827586206895,-351.4556695151647,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,4.926108374384237,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.477832512315271,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv index 618f675a0e0ee7760ef303eddf66d93022aa7472..a1968ac0c53e37bc9b865b1fcebb18cc042195a1 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.019,-0.004,0.059 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.024,0.061 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.023,-0.005,0.069 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.024,0.061 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.028,-0.004,0.074 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.041,0.003,0.083 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.034,0.009,0.076 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,0.005,0.089 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.069,0.01,0.138 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.051,-0.001,0.11 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.051,0.009,0.117 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.069,0.01,0.138 Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.027,0.265 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.14 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.084,0.035,0.145 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.233,0.391 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.02,-0.063,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.038,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.004,-0.002,0.01 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.038,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.002,0.02 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.022,-0.007,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.015,0.005,0.027 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.018,0.006,0.034 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.05,0.004,0.118 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.032,-0.003,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.032,0.008,0.063 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.05,0.004,0.118 Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.106,0.001,0.254 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.062,0.022,0.111 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.062,0.022,0.111 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.093 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.026,0.128 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.225,0.368 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.065,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.038,0.037 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.035,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.025,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,0.01,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.021,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.024,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.052,0.008,0.103 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.024,0.09 -TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.108,0.007,0.239 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,-0.003,0.117 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.029,0.115 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.39 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.024,-0.074,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.004,-0.011,0.002 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.006,-0.044,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.006,-0.044,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.004,-0.004,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.018,-0.014,0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.011,-0.002,0.025 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.014,0.003,0.027 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.046,0.0,0.113 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,-0.003,0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,0.006,0.055 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.046,0.0,0.113 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.103,-0.008,0.254 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.019,0.105 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.019,0.105 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.028,0.086 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.063,0.02,0.124 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.224,0.365 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.065,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.038,0.037 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.035,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.025,0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,0.01,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.021,0.051 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.024,0.062 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.034,0.005,0.066 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.024,0.09 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.052,0.008,0.103 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.108,0.007,0.239 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,-0.003,0.117 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.39 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.028,-0.079,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.009,-0.021,0.002 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.045,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.004,-0.014,0.004 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.045,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.014,-0.014,0.047 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.007,-0.009,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.01,-0.004,0.022 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.042,0.004,0.101 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.002,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,-0.007,0.052 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.042,0.004,0.101 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.099,-0.014,0.25 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.054,0.022,0.092 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.054,0.022,0.092 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.051,0.019,0.083 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.021,0.114 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.215,0.364 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.043,-0.09,-0.003 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.023,-0.062,0.007 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.039,-0.01 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.018,-0.06,0.014 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.039,-0.01 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.014,-0.049,0.014 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.046,0.022 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.049,0.032 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.081 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.02,0.042 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.052,0.063 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.081 FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.086,-0.018,0.218 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.002,0.079 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.002,0.079 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.037,-0.027,0.09 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.009,0.088 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.193,0.366 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.082,-0.009 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.015,-0.028,-0.005 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.054,0.02 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.011,-0.026,0.002 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.054,0.02 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.007,-0.02,0.009 TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.022,0.044 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.003,-0.01,0.018 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.036,-0.006,0.104 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.018,0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.017,-0.007,0.048 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.036,-0.006,0.104 TiRex,TFT,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.093,-0.014,0.239 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.044,0.016,0.075 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.052,0.013,0.116 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.214,0.356 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.098,-0.005 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.018,-0.035,-0.006 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.066,0.024 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.014,-0.027,-0.003 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.066,0.024 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.01,-0.022,0.004 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.033,0.047 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.003,-0.018,0.01 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.011,0.103 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.014,-0.019,0.058 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.014,-0.004,0.032 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.011,0.103 TiRex-2,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.031,0.244 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.005,0.092 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.005,0.092 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.041,0.019,0.065 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.049,0.001,0.118 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.218,0.352 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.074,-0.16,-0.01 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.053,-0.134,-0.004 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.055,-0.115,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.128,-0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.044,-0.112,-0.004 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.03,-0.088,0.01 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.037,-0.116,0.006 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.114,0.011 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.019,-0.118,0.04 -TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.059,-0.093,0.223 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.03,0.051 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.03,0.051 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.009,-0.092,0.07 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.017,0.0,0.031 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.262,0.138,0.349 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.054,-0.124,0.001 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.033,-0.079,0.003 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.072,0.003 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.07,-0.005 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.024,-0.057,0.002 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.044,0.019 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.064,0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.015,-0.061,0.019 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.0,-0.061,0.042 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.019,-0.016,0.06 +TS-ICL,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.077,-0.055,0.224 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.031,-0.003,0.072 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.031,-0.003,0.072 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.027,-0.03,0.072 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.175,0.361 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.053,-0.133,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.033,-0.067,-0.008 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.099,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.058,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.099,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.024,-0.055,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.067,0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.018,-0.05,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.015,-0.033,0.004 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.019,-0.042,0.106 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.0,-0.043,0.057 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.019,-0.042,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.077,-0.063,0.239 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.031,-0.021,0.093 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.031,-0.021,0.093 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.028,0.015,0.041 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.035,-0.032,0.122 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.213,0.338 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.074,-0.16,-0.01 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.053,-0.134,-0.004 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.128,-0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.055,-0.115,-0.009 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.044,-0.112,-0.004 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.03,-0.088,0.01 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.037,-0.116,0.006 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.114,0.011 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.019,-0.064,0.016 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.019,-0.118,0.04 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.059,-0.093,0.223 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.03,0.051 +TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.03,0.051 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.009,-0.092,0.07 +TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.262,0.138,0.349 TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.36,-0.027 TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.119,-0.341,-0.001 -TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.122,-0.315,-0.008 TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.115,-0.341,0.008 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.122,-0.315,-0.008 TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.11,-0.334,0.014 TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.094,-0.279,0.017 TFT,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.102,-0.314,0.014 TFT,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.323,0.03 -TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.063,-0.288,0.085 +TFT,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.083,-0.289,0.052 TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.083,-0.314,0.06 +TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.063,-0.288,0.085 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.05,-0.267,0.086 TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.05,-0.267,0.086 TFT,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.054,-0.283,0.085 -TFT,citras-fm,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.045,-0.252,0.095 TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.216,0.01,0.356 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.066,-0.125,-0.023 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.117,-0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.057,-0.102,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.086,-0.002 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.101,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.032,-0.078,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.032,-0.103,0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.048,-0.094,0.21 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.07,0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.005,-0.032,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.066,-0.125,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.117,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.057,-0.102,-0.022 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.086,-0.002 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.101,-0.005 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.032,-0.078,0.003 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.032,-0.103,0.021 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.048,-0.094,0.21 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.07,0.045 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.005,-0.032,0.04 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.083,-0.163,-0.031 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.062,-0.103,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.133,0.003 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.094,-0.029 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.133,0.003 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.053,-0.09,-0.019 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.039,-0.099,0.026 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.046,-0.081,-0.016 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.043,-0.069,-0.019 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.009,-0.076,0.084 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.028,-0.078,0.029 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.028,-0.043,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.009,-0.076,0.084 Toto-1.0,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.051,-0.093,0.221 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.008,-0.062,0.095 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.189,0.319 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.092,-0.169,-0.037 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.147,-0.026 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.13,-0.03 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.067,-0.142,-0.02 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.062,-0.128,-0.021 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.009 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.055,-0.131,-0.013 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.052,-0.133,-0.001 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.017,-0.032,-0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.037,-0.139,0.031 -citras-fm,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.043,-0.104,0.201 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.005,-0.042,0.031 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.005,-0.042,0.031 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.008,-0.106,0.058 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.25,0.129,0.34 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.456,-0.641,-0.304 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.582,-0.291 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.639,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.575,-0.289 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.639,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.415,-0.573,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.396,-0.577,-0.238 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.554,-0.272 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.542,-0.279 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.356,-0.536,-0.16 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.564,-0.212 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.512,-0.27 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.356,-0.536,-0.16 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.275,-0.552,-0.01 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.468,-0.232 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.333,-0.514,-0.148 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv index 693670312247a62abe27c52217d87ff837426448..093afc843f0b574230a84d819dceeb1a5ef36d12 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -8,12 +8,12 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.034,0.012,0.07 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,0.006,0.085 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.05,0.013,0.09 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.071,0.011,0.146 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.049,-0.001,0.106 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.111 Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.135,0.036,0.278 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.044,0.169 Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.047,0.195 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.044,0.137 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.065,0.171 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.347,0.521 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.02,-0.06,0.007 @@ -25,12 +25,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.015,-0.002,0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.017,0.002,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.03,-0.001,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.052,-0.001,0.124 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.03,-0.01,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,0.005,0.058 Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.118,0.011,0.273 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.085,0.042,0.131 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.09,0.027,0.184 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.063,0.038,0.093 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.1,0.047,0.164 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.09,0.028,0.164 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.332,0.513 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.069,0.013 @@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.028,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.031,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.016,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,0.009,0.096 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.026,0.007,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.024,-0.038,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.114,0.011,0.253 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.081,0.002,0.157 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.034,0.158 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.005,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.142 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.314,0.522 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.026,-0.075,0.008 @@ -59,12 +59,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.009,-0.01,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.012,-0.002,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.025,-0.008,0.065 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,-0.005,0.12 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.025,-0.015,0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.023,0.002,0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.113,-0.0,0.271 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.079,0.038,0.121 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.085,0.02,0.178 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.058,0.034,0.085 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.095,0.038,0.16 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.084,0.023,0.155 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.327,0.51 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.029,-0.08,0.004 @@ -76,12 +76,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.006,-0.011,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.009,-0.004,0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.022,-0.008,0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.043,-0.002,0.11 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.021,-0.011,0.056 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.019,-0.005,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.11,-0.003,0.266 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.076,0.031,0.122 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.082,0.02,0.171 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.055,0.03,0.081 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.092,0.036,0.156 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.081,0.027,0.148 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.323,0.51 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.035,-0.076,-0.012 @@ -93,12 +93,12 @@ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.003,-0.01,0.017 TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.016,-0.011,0.051 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.038,-0.007,0.11 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.016,-0.018,0.055 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.014,-0.013,0.045 TiRex,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.105,0.005,0.253 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.071,0.022,0.119 TiRex,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.076,0.016,0.17 TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.049,0.029,0.073 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.087,0.029,0.145 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.325,0.506 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.093,-0.006 @@ -110,12 +110,12 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.003,-0.017,0.01 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.013,-0.021,0.052 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.035,-0.01,0.108 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.013,-0.023,0.054 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.011,-0.008,0.031 TiRex-2,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.102,-0.012,0.258 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.068,0.027,0.109 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.074,0.007,0.168 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.029,0.063 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.084,0.022,0.146 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.073,0.019,0.145 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.322,0.502 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.099,-0.013 @@ -127,12 +127,12 @@ FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.016,-0.053,0.01 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.013,-0.054,0.021 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.022,-0.011,0.071 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.0,-0.022,0.025 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.062,0.048 FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.02,0.235 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.056,-0.021,0.125 FlowState,citras-fm,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,0.01,0.133 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.034,-0.017,0.078 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.072,0.027,0.116 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.021,0.114 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.301,0.504 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.076,-0.171,-0.011 @@ -144,14 +144,31 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.039,-0.123,0.007 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.036,-0.121,0.01 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.023,-0.077,0.01 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.023,-0.079,0.017 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.025,-0.127,0.037 TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.069,-0.088,0.235 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.035,-0.085,0.113 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.07 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.083,0.069 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.051,-0.028,0.118 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.014,0.074 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.268,0.502 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.119,0.001 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.031,-0.079,0.01 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.027,-0.056,-0.007 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.025,-0.071,0.015 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.022,-0.06,0.011 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.016,-0.058,0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.013,-0.057,0.023 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.0,-0.025,0.022 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.022,-0.017,0.073 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.059,0.042 +TS-ICL,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.031,0.236 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.056,-0.024,0.126 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.061,-0.005,0.136 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.034,-0.016,0.074 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.061,0.013,0.118 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.291,0.511 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.05,-0.125,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.062,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.025,-0.087,0.037 @@ -161,12 +178,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.047,0.013 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.011,-0.032,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.05,0.058 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.024,-0.039,0.113 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.044,0.056 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.092,-0.042,0.259 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.058,0.027,0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.063,-0.021,0.175 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.023,0.051 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.074,-0.003,0.15 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.063,-0.005,0.147 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.315,0.494 TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.156,-0.385,-0.038 @@ -178,12 +195,12 @@ TFT,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.117,-0.339,-0.005 TFT,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.114,-0.347,0.012 TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.307,0.019 TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.075,-0.306,0.081 +TFT,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.309,0.03 TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.102,-0.35,0.04 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TFT,Toto-2.0-4m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.038,-0.282,0.112 TFT,citras-fm,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.032,-0.252,0.134 TFT,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.062,-0.283,0.066 -TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.02,-0.156,0.074 TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.032,-0.249,0.122 TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.219,0.471 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.114,-0.204,-0.046 @@ -195,12 +212,12 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.076,-0.135,-0.022 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.073,-0.122,-0.028 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.059,-0.143,0.021 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.036,-0.128,0.078 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.06,-0.144,0.024 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.062,-0.101,-0.028 Toto-2.0-4m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.036,-0.126,0.22 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.099,0.142 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.065,0.013 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.076,0.116 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.005,-0.083,0.107 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.285,0.456 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.243,-0.049 @@ -212,12 +229,12 @@ citras-fm,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.082,-0.205,-0.016 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.079,-0.202,-0.007 citras-fm,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.153,-0.01 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.076,-0.011 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.065,-0.157,0.005 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.212,0.021 citras-fm,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.031,-0.155,0.201 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.006,-0.165,0.09 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.029,-0.165,0.053 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.012,-0.098,0.093 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.0,-0.043,0.04 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.373,0.222,0.484 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.159,-0.046 @@ -229,31 +246,14 @@ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.079,-0.03 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.049,-0.068,-0.03 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.035,-0.085,0.017 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.074,0.076 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.08,0.016 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.054,-0.023 Toto-1.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.058,-0.071,0.221 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.023,-0.013,0.061 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.056,0.141 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.039,-0.039,0.113 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.294,0.473 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.206,-0.07 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.111,-0.196,-0.049 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.165,-0.052 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.105,-0.19,-0.04 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.102,-0.184,-0.038 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.095,-0.17,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.092,-0.171,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.078,-0.131,-0.028 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.054,-0.134,0.027 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.08,-0.176,0.003 -TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.019,-0.08,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.131,0.071 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.102,0.089 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.041,-0.127,0.037 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.096,0.072 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.268,0.459 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.098,-0.195,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046 @@ -263,12 +263,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.079,-0.17,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.129,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.08,-0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.065,-0.133,-0.013 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.068,-0.173,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.031,-0.138,0.199 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.005,-0.12,0.077 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.0,-0.042,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.029,-0.124,0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.012,-0.077,0.088 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.087,-0.531 @@ -280,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.023,-0.482 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.008,-0.475 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.698,-1.017,-0.431 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-1.007,-0.366 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.699,-1.044,-0.411 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.702,-0.977,-0.46 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.545,-0.89,-0.28 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.603,-0.837,-0.4 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.594,-0.938,-0.285 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.64,-0.897,-0.416 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.576,-0.849,-0.366 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 230b2cdc552516a2e8581cc8b4775a627a631b1b..8391c82707372603c32bb32317305ae56ba2486f 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.02,-0.008,0.067 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.028,-0.01,0.083 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.025,-0.01,0.082 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.028,-0.01,0.083 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.018,-0.024,0.065 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.04,0.004,0.081 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.061,0.008,0.13 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.049,-0.002,0.109 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.044,0.007,0.106 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.061,0.008,0.13 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.011,0.084 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.048,0.009,0.112 Chronos-2,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,0.018,0.255 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.049,0.113 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.084,0.036,0.149 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.232,0.391 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.02,-0.072,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.008,-0.003,0.02 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.002,0.016 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.008,-0.003,0.02 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.001,-0.035,0.035 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.021,-0.013,0.061 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.042,-0.012,0.12 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.03,0.001,0.071 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.025,0.011,0.044 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.042,-0.012,0.12 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.019,0.01,0.03 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.029,0.01,0.051 Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.095,-0.026,0.244 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.022,0.12 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.022,0.12 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.063,0.025,0.097 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.014,0.137 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.022,0.12 +Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.022,0.12 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.224,0.371 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.028,-0.09,0.01 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.008,-0.02,0.003 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.002,-0.013,0.006 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.009,-0.047,0.026 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.022,0.05 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.02,0.104 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.017,0.0,0.034 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.011,-0.008,0.027 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.021,-0.005,0.042 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.043,0.24 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.017,0.104 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.017,0.104 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,0.013,0.093 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.059,0.005,0.125 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.215,0.366 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.026,-0.09,0.01 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.006,-0.017,0.002 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.002,-0.006,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.002,-0.006,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.047,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.015,-0.025,0.057 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.116 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.025,-0.002,0.062 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.02,0.007,0.033 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.116 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.014,-0.005,0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.023,0.005,0.039 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.041,0.244 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.012,0.116 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.012,0.116 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.011,0.098 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.061,0.002,0.134 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.012,0.116 +Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.012,0.116 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.218,0.369 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.028,-0.09,0.01 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.008,-0.02,0.003 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.002,-0.013,0.006 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.009,-0.047,0.026 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.022,0.05 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.022,0.0,0.053 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.017,0.0,0.034 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.02,0.104 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.011,-0.008,0.027 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.021,-0.005,0.042 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.043,0.24 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,0.013,0.093 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.017,0.104 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.017,0.104 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.215,0.366 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.019,-0.069,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.001,-0.036,0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.009,-0.027,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.035,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.009,-0.027,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,0.007,0.037 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.043,-0.004,0.104 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.031,0.005,0.06 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.026,-0.023,0.074 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.043,-0.004,0.104 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.017,0.056 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.03,-0.023,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.096,-0.01,0.224 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.035,0.097 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.023,0.122 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.392 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.042,-0.088,-0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.021,-0.065,0.012 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.013,-0.052,0.021 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.016,-0.06,0.024 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.013,-0.052,0.021 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.023,-0.039,-0.007 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.021,-0.021,0.077 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.009,-0.022,0.043 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.048,0.051 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.021,-0.021,0.077 FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.043,0.031 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.008,-0.054,0.06 FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.076,-0.033,0.205 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.007,0.088 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.007,0.088 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.023,0.067 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.046,0.01,0.096 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.007,0.088 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.007,0.088 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.189,0.371 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.065,-0.149,-0.008 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.043,-0.136,0.012 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.116,0.02 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.038,-0.131,0.023 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.045,-0.116,0.004 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.022,-0.084,0.02 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.017,-0.114,0.048 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.113,0.029 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.013,-0.121,0.057 -TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.056,-0.099,0.215 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,-0.016,0.062 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,-0.016,0.062 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,-0.05,0.073 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.025,0.015,0.036 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.27,0.138,0.362 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.122,0.002 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.031,-0.076,-0.001 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.067,0.002 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.023,-0.056,-0.0 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.032,-0.064,-0.005 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.009,-0.045,0.022 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.005,-0.056,0.031 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.012,-0.036,0.063 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.011,-0.056,0.023 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.001,-0.06,0.039 +TS-ICL,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.067,-0.071,0.214 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.034,-0.019,0.08 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.036,-0.002,0.081 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.036,-0.002,0.081 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.173,0.365 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.119,-0.007 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.046,-0.011 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.018,-0.035,-0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.02,-0.034,-0.007 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.018,-0.035,-0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.027,-0.08,0.022 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.054,0.045 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.017,-0.051,0.103 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.005,-0.032,0.053 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.017,-0.051,0.103 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.006,-0.029,0.012 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.004,-0.006,0.011 TiRex-2,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.072,-0.075,0.231 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.041,-0.011,0.099 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.041,-0.011,0.099 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.039,-0.009,0.081 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.042,-0.024,0.125 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.041,-0.011,0.099 +TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.041,-0.011,0.099 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.282,0.211,0.351 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.065,-0.149,-0.008 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.043,-0.136,0.012 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.038,-0.131,0.023 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.116,0.02 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.045,-0.116,0.004 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.022,-0.084,0.02 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.012,-0.067,0.035 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.017,-0.114,0.048 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.113,0.029 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.013,-0.121,0.057 +TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.056,-0.099,0.215 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,-0.05,0.073 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,-0.016,0.062 +TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,-0.016,0.062 +TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.27,0.138,0.362 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.091,-0.011 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.02,-0.031,-0.01 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.012,-0.028,0.008 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.014,-0.031,0.005 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.012,-0.028,0.008 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.059,0.016 TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.031,0.041 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.023,-0.03,0.101 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.011,-0.023,0.053 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.006,-0.012,0.028 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.023,-0.03,0.101 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.01,-0.011,0.034 TiRex,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.077,-0.044,0.226 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.045,0.01,0.078 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.048,-0.003,0.122 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.21,0.357 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.051,-0.127,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.03,-0.054,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.022,-0.044,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.024,-0.041,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.022,-0.044,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.031,-0.088,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.008,-0.064,0.051 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.013,-0.061,0.108 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.001,-0.041,0.057 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.004,-0.011,0.006 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.013,-0.061,0.108 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.01,-0.036,0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.068,-0.079,0.229 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.018,0.103 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.018,0.103 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.035,-0.018,0.083 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.038,-0.034,0.13 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.018,0.103 +Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.018,0.103 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.212,0.347 TFT,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.127,-0.342,-0.018 TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.105,-0.322,0.025 -TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.096,-0.317,0.041 TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.323,0.04 +TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.096,-0.317,0.041 TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.107,-0.289,0.01 TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.082,-0.258,0.032 -TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.059,-0.273,0.09 +TFT,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.072,-0.272,0.066 TFT,TiRex-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.077,-0.3,0.069 +TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.059,-0.273,0.09 TFT,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.084,-0.292,0.042 TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.073,-0.296,0.073 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.033,-0.24,0.101 -TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.033,-0.24,0.101 TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.035,-0.202,0.071 -TFT,citras-fm,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.032,-0.23,0.108 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.033,-0.24,0.101 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.033,-0.24,0.101 TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.227,0.023,0.368 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.136,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.116,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.063,-0.131,-0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.042,-0.109,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.115,0.018 -Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.032,-0.112,0.193 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.002,-0.057,0.047 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.001,-0.04,0.039 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.136,-0.023 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.116,-0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.063,-0.131,-0.012 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.042,-0.109,0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.115,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.032,-0.112,0.193 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.002,-0.057,0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.001,-0.04,0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.128,-0.052 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.067,-0.108,-0.026 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.102,-0.013 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.108,-0.011 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.102,-0.013 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.108,-0.036 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.072,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.023,-0.079,0.047 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.035,-0.086,0.019 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.041,-0.088,0.009 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.023,-0.079,0.047 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.047,-0.085,-0.01 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.037,-0.091,0.017 TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.034,-0.077,0.168 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.002,-0.05,0.054 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.002,-0.05,0.054 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.045,0.066 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.002,-0.05,0.054 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.002,-0.05,0.054 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.163,0.331 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.092,-0.174,-0.037 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.159,-0.015 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.062,-0.143,-0.005 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.065,-0.155,-0.002 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.072,-0.139,-0.024 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.048,-0.106,-0.01 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.037,-0.015 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.044,-0.143,0.024 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.05,-0.139,0.003 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.04,-0.149,0.033 -citras-fm,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.031,-0.121,0.187 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.001,-0.04,0.038 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.001,-0.04,0.038 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.071,0.043 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.251,0.118,0.347 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.136,-0.023 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.063,-0.131,-0.012 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.116,-0.017 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.037,-0.088,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.042,-0.109,0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.115,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.032,-0.112,0.193 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.002,-0.057,0.047 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.136,-0.023 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.063,-0.131,-0.012 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.116,-0.017 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.007 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.037,-0.088,0.002 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.042,-0.109,0.011 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.115,0.018 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.032,-0.112,0.193 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.002,-0.057,0.047 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.643,-0.303 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.591,-0.289 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.577,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.584,-0.279 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.577,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.644,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.59,-0.233 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.37,-0.567,-0.16 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.386,-0.576,-0.209 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.393,-0.54,-0.267 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.37,-0.567,-0.16 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.555,-0.267 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.388,-0.53,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.293,-0.583,-0.023 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.495,-0.195 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.335,-0.53,-0.134 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv index d862db5d8ba1f109f232f0dc9ef5ff6b3e74a6e2..3737ff53f0f43ebf14d88f79c62c7bdc7e7e5db3 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -5,12 +5,12 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.013,0.065 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.024,-0.011,0.075 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.026,-0.011,0.079 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.062,0.008,0.137 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.008,0.102 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,-0.003,0.099 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.014,0.072 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.008,0.102 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,0.014,0.086 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.046,0.006,0.107 Chronos-2,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.122,0.025,0.267 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.105,0.046,0.169 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.058,0.168 Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.047,0.2 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.044,0.129 @@ -22,12 +22,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.032,0.05 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.004,0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.001,0.022 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.045,-0.012,0.127 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,0.012,0.048 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,-0.006,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.02,0.006,0.035 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,0.012,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.031,-0.002,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.029,0.01,0.052 Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.107,-0.013,0.261 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.043,0.135 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.094,0.031,0.161 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.091,0.019,0.194 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.063,0.042,0.084 @@ -39,12 +39,12 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.001,-0.04,0.04 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.049,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.039,-0.001,0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.022,-0.03,0.071 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.022,0.005,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.025,0.047 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.022,-0.03,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.025,0.015,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.023,-0.039,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.101,-0.006,0.24 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.084,0.001,0.163 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.042,0.134 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.03,0.162 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.004,0.105 @@ -56,12 +56,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.001,-0.042,0.038 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,0.001,-0.009,0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.038,-0.019,0.114 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.021,0.004,0.037 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.008,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.013,-0.008,0.031 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.021,0.004,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.024,-0.01,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,-0.0,0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.1,-0.028,0.257 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.082,0.034,0.131 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.087,0.019,0.157 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.085,0.01,0.182 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.056,0.033,0.077 @@ -73,12 +73,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.051,0.046 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.861,-0.001,-0.009,0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.037,-0.03,0.122 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.02,0.008,0.032 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.015,0.061 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.012,0.032 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.02,0.008,0.032 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.023,-0.019,0.068 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.021,0.007,0.035 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.099,-0.032,0.257 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.038,0.127 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.086,0.015,0.158 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.084,0.002,0.189 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.036,0.075 @@ -90,63 +90,80 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.041,-0.104,0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.04,-0.129,0.019 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.038,-0.139,0.029 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.018,-0.123,0.051 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.018,-0.08,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.026,-0.119,0.026 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.018,-0.123,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.014,-0.075,0.022 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.017,-0.132,0.058 TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.064,-0.093,0.23 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.046,-0.078,0.134 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.051,-0.033,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.049,0.027,0.077 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.018,-0.086,0.083 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.051,0.029,0.085 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.27,0.515 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.114,-0.008 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.051,-0.012 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.076,0.029 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.021,-0.038,-0.004 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.02,-0.034,-0.008 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.018,-0.053,0.11 -TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.008,-0.034,0.012 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.043,0.051 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.001,-0.01,0.011 -TiRex-2,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.081,-0.058,0.241 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.063,0.023,0.105 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.068,-0.009,0.143 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.065,-0.023,0.177 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.022,0.05 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.068,0.001,0.151 -TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.321,0.501 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.11,0.003 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.075,0.006 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.023,-0.047,-0.005 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.058,0.008 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.065,0.014 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.018,-0.033,0.074 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.008,-0.051,0.024 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.0,-0.049,0.041 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.023,0.026 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.001,-0.056,0.049 +TS-ICL,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.081,-0.041,0.223 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.068,0.0,0.127 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.065,-0.005,0.146 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.035,-0.015,0.076 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.068,0.014,0.128 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.296,0.522 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.078,-0.015 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.02,-0.037,-0.006 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.049,0.024 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.013,-0.032,0.007 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.034,0.012 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.026,-0.027,0.107 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.012,0.033 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.025,0.048 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.012,0.033 TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.016,0.046 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.009,-0.017,0.041 TiRex,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.023,0.237 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.07,0.018,0.12 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.075,0.013,0.139 TiRex,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.073,0.002,0.175 TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.026,0.064 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.325,0.511 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.114,-0.008 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.051,-0.012 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.076,0.029 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.021,-0.038,-0.004 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.02,-0.034,-0.008 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.018,-0.053,0.11 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.0,-0.043,0.047 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.008,-0.034,0.012 +TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.043,0.051 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.001,-0.01,0.011 +TiRex-2,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.081,-0.058,0.241 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.068,-0.009,0.143 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.065,-0.023,0.177 +TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.022,0.05 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.068,0.001,0.151 +TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.321,0.501 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.05,-0.094,-0.014 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.032,-0.079,0.002 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.037,-0.015 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.025,-0.063,0.01 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.024,-0.073,0.019 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.014,-0.022,0.069 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.054,0.042 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.027,0.023 FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.049,0.016 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.054,0.042 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.065,0.051 FlowState,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.078,-0.035,0.221 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.06,-0.019,0.133 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.021,0.112 FlowState,citras-fm,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.062,0.009,0.139 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.032,-0.019,0.076 @@ -158,12 +175,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.024,-0.086,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.022,-0.044,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.021,-0.037,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.017,-0.062,0.117 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.001,-0.011,0.01 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.001,-0.051,0.053 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.009,-0.042,0.017 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.001,-0.011,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.054,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.08,-0.064,0.248 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.062,0.026,0.101 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.067,-0.017,0.149 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,-0.029,0.184 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.035,0.019,0.05 @@ -175,46 +192,29 @@ TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.113,-0.315,0.006 TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.111,-0.346,0.027 TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.11,-0.346,0.031 TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.069,-0.298,0.085 -TFT,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.088,-0.317,0.055 +TFT,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.088,-0.287,0.04 TFT,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.097,-0.311,0.022 +TFT,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.088,-0.317,0.055 TFT,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.084,-0.283,0.034 TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.087,-0.329,0.06 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TFT,Toto-2.0-4m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.262,0.136 TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.142,0.075 TFT,citras-fm,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.017,-0.229,0.146 TFT,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.049,-0.268,0.085 TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.221,0.136 TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.241,0.486 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.117,-0.203,-0.048 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.157,-0.045 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.091,-0.195,-0.001 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.09,-0.151,-0.035 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.145,-0.039 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.048,-0.155,0.073 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.067,-0.117,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.076,-0.136,-0.018 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.064,-0.154,0.019 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.066,-0.113,-0.026 -Toto-2.0-4m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.019,-0.157,0.208 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.005,-0.099,0.113 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.113,0.148 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.029,-0.079,0.011 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.005,-0.092,0.117 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.287,0.465 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.202,-0.061 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.103,-0.191,-0.032 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.154,-0.044 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.095,-0.186,-0.02 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.094,-0.187,-0.015 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.054,-0.135,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.073,-0.166,0.009 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.072,-0.146,-0.0 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.081,-0.161,-0.013 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.073,-0.166,0.009 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.126,-0.022 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.071,-0.175,0.017 TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.081,0.124 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.005,-0.127,0.09 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.096,0.104 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.034,-0.124,0.047 @@ -226,12 +226,12 @@ citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.194,-0.031 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.093,-0.222,-0.01 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.091,-0.232,-0.002 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.051,-0.084,-0.028 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.07,-0.215,0.022 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.07,-0.17,0.005 citras-fm,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.079,-0.213,-0.002 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.07,-0.215,0.022 citras-fm,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.066,-0.162,-0.009 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.069,-0.226,0.028 citras-fm,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.017,-0.171,0.186 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.174,0.101 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.116,0.088 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.032,-0.176,0.057 @@ -243,12 +243,12 @@ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.118,-0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.083,-0.034 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.081,-0.037 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.019,-0.091,0.079 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.037,-0.053,-0.023 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.037,-0.082,0.015 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.068,-0.027 +Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.037,-0.053,-0.023 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.033,-0.083,0.019 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.036,-0.053,-0.019 Toto-1.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.047,-0.093,0.211 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.028,-0.012,0.073 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.033,-0.05,0.11 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.031,-0.06,0.149 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -260,12 +260,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.095,-0.19,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.094,-0.201,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.054,-0.093,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.073,-0.178,-0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.073,-0.147,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.073,-0.178,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.14,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.072,-0.185,0.009 Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.158,0.181 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.005,-0.132,0.084 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.0,-0.094,0.08 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.003,-0.05,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.035,-0.136,0.036 @@ -277,12 +277,12 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.122,-0.461 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.759,-1.087,-0.477 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.076,-0.483 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.692,-1.063,-0.37 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.006,-0.472 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.093,-0.42 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.737,-1.043,-0.481 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.006,-0.472 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.717,-1.057,-0.436 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.008,-0.47 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.946,-0.318 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.868,-0.403 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.908,-0.381 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.61,-0.975,-0.284 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.934,-0.421 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv index aab6d8f800544b4a0bbbccb8ea571e0bbdf57432..1004dd07890015765785b046455e0eb447afd813 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.2857142857143,32.66797317900995,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,82.14285714285715,30.201739251352212,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,79.28571428571429,29.260350065108376,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,79.28571428571429,29.209520364239804,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.14285714285715,29.93563029482772,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.42857142857142,29.99164696817904,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,73.57142857142858,29.357226912555344,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,73.57142857142857,29.754752173256584,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,71.78571428571428,28.93605738519158,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,70.0,29.394157929053712,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.0,28.76118230177598,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,63.2142857142857,27.399232776718353,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 -Sundial-Base,62.142857142857125,27.294413166287423,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.7142857142857,27.802663844137786,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,59.28571428571428,27.78289022024678,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,49.999999999999986,23.420687735560985,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,49.285714285714285,24.109596179935487,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,45.7142857142857,23.98149756470208,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,43.571428571428555,21.542038924284434,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,30.714285714285722,17.97726241921238,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,29.28571428571428,-29.622695283539358,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 -TFT,18.571428571428577,11.739357763049185,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 -Naive,18.571428571428573,7.795601696116828,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,17.142857142857142,9.449688890714715,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,14.285714285714285,4.1721599099919455,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 -Drift,14.285714285714285,4.078700196776586,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,13.571428571428571,4.184526702220593,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,12.142857142857142,3.384538751976529,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.96551724137932,32.66797317900995,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,81.3793103448276,30.201739251352212,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,79.3103448275862,29.260350065108376,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,78.62068965517243,29.209520364239804,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.55172413793105,29.93563029482772,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,75.86206896551724,29.99164696817904,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,73.79310344827587,29.357226912555344,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.10344827586206,29.754752173256584,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,71.37931034482756,28.93605738519158,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.34482758620689,29.394157929053712,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.82758620689656,28.76118230177598,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,63.10344827586204,27.399232776718353,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.06896551724136,27.337264578289744,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,61.379310344827566,27.294413166287423,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,60.68965517241377,27.802663844137786,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,59.31034482758619,27.78289022024678,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,48.96551724137931,24.109596179935487,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,48.965517241379295,23.420687735560985,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,44.82758620689654,23.98149756470208,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,42.75862068965516,21.542038924284434,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,30.3448275862069,17.97726241921238,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,28.965517241379306,-29.622695283539358,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +TFT,17.931034482758623,11.739357763049185,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +Naive,17.93103448275862,7.795601696116828,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,16.551724137931036,9.449688890714715,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +Drift,13.793103448275861,4.078700196776586,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,13.793103448275861,4.1721599099919455,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,13.103448275862068,4.184526702220593,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,11.724137931034482,3.384538751976529,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.655172413793105,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 7fe1c01fd8d8f8419fe3a80bea1cf82c4b7e5a17..793c595121a549532fd0f38fda2b06c404f81337 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,90.00000000000001,40.14261361598851,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,85.71428571428574,38.09386445171089,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.14285714285714,37.43876342889425,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.28571428571428,37.83157222733069,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.14285714285715,37.66612649055474,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.42857142857143,37.58550747009978,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571429,37.188322050437485,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,72.85714285714288,36.04259739782568,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,70.71428571428571,36.31166826953211,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.35714285714285,36.03582808206656,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.71428571428571,36.293037504059534,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.64285714285712,34.85309081790271,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,35.99499337037837,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,61.42857142857142,35.936651145406394,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,57.857142857142854,32.679408744349004,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,55.71428571428571,32.757599647708304,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.14285714285714,30.90991527640704,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,39.999999999999986,17.231323121576647,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.0,22.423106139028192,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 -TFT,30.714285714285722,18.511138237688506,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,27.857142857142858,17.09711611460085,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.28571428571429,-136.42889638840893,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,24.285714285714285,9.609592105853038,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,17.85714285714286,-2.841792105310592,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.142857142857146,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,13.571428571428573,-6.491295800307162,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,13.571428571428571,-6.505040508588555,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 -Naive,7.142857142857142,-23.56398425913284,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.857142857142857,-28.21332719128542,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,89.65517241379311,40.14261361598851,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,85.51724137931036,38.09386445171089,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,82.06896551724138,37.43876342889425,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.3103448275862,37.83157222733069,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.55172413793103,37.66612649055474,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,75.86206896551722,37.58550747009978,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,74.48275862068965,37.188322050437485,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,71.72413793103449,36.04259739782568,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.34482758620688,36.31166826953211,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,69.31034482758618,36.03582808206656,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,66.89655172413794,35.85151872644183,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.82758620689654,36.293037504059534,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,63.793103448275836,34.85309081790271,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +Toto-1.0,63.44827586206896,35.99499337037837,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,61.37931034482757,35.936651145406394,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,56.551724137931025,32.679408744349004,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,54.48275862068963,32.757599647708304,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,46.20689655172413,30.90991527640704,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,39.31034482758619,17.231323121576647,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,33.79310344827586,22.423106139028192,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +TFT,29.655172413793107,18.511138237688506,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,26.896551724137936,17.09711611460085,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,24.13793103448276,-136.42889638840893,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,23.448275862068964,9.609592105853038,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,17.93103448275862,-2.841792105310592,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.551724137931036,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,13.10344827586207,-6.491295800307162,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,13.103448275862068,-6.505040508588555,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.896551724137931,-23.56398425913284,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.7586206896551726,-28.21332719128542,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 6dbf5f9d3eac1ea0a4c42a30a0ba1f02617f4316..9a20ac8be7450df5c0cf74be672b346c96fad719 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,82.85714285714286,46.261525282913595,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.42857142857146,47.03832863128653,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.85714285714288,47.015579237547286,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,77.85714285714286,46.63720411823188,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.42857142857144,46.712323883118025,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,76.42857142857142,45.94421147950074,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.0,45.26550169523424,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,72.85714285714286,45.658876884431066,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,69.64285714285714,44.270996715968245,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.28571428571428,45.234350223405905,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,67.85714285714286,44.24561217925266,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.14285714285714,45.58255213545739,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.35714285714286,43.560110317907345,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,63.571428571428555,44.832337002858004,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,57.857142857142854,43.22149190972845,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,53.57142857142857,42.24241790735197,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.999999999999986,36.39656206472499,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,42.85714285714285,37.25191993036196,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.28571428571427,32.15916008390624,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,30.714285714285705,-7.089563361203255,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 -TFT,27.857142857142858,31.89215730204118,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,27.142857142857146,32.26789204762996,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,25.0,30.485156307041137,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,19.285714285714285,-5.351235687949107,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.142857142857142,25.364806013828144,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.428571428571429,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.714285714285714,15.777737575686047,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,10.0,9.204507505376158,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,8.571428571428573,-21.610796222594896,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,82.0689655172414,46.261525282913595,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.68965517241381,47.03832863128653,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,77.24137931034484,47.015579237547286,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,77.24137931034483,46.63720411823188,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,76.55172413793105,45.94421147950074,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.86206896551725,46.712323883118025,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,74.48275862068965,45.26550169523424,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,71.72413793103449,45.658876884431066,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,69.6551724137931,45.234350223405905,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.62068965517241,44.270996715968245,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,68.2758620689655,44.57858046889211,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,66.89655172413794,44.24561217925266,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.89655172413791,45.58255213545739,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,64.48275862068965,43.560110317907345,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,63.44827586206895,44.832337002858004,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,56.551724137931025,43.22149190972845,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,52.41379310344827,42.24241790735197,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,44.13793103448274,36.39656206472499,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,42.06896551724137,37.25191993036196,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.6206896551724,32.15916008390624,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,30.344827586206886,-7.089563361203255,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +TFT,26.896551724137936,31.89215730204118,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,26.20689655172414,32.26789204762996,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,24.137931034482758,30.485156307041137,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,18.620689655172416,-5.351235687949107,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.551724137931036,25.364806013828144,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.03448275862069,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.344827586206897,15.777737575686047,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,9.655172413793103,9.204507505376158,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,8.275862068965518,-21.610796222594896,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv index f8b31d47a66cf0c058f0586774c02dc1e225439a..9c1dfcf20f857c6b42563d54605b1852adbefec5 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,83.5714285714286,65.24685534837047,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,81.42857142857146,65.46785431424527,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,80.00000000000001,65.47877258222164,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.2857142857143,65.09181820451573,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.7142857142857,65.02250890932473,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,75.00000000000003,65.08289133257598,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,74.28571428571429,63.901555686088926,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.57142857142858,64.93808949583952,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,72.14285714285715,64.33412565306647,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,71.42857142857143,64.78913859128755,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,69.28571428571428,63.60825806205861,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,68.57142857142857,64.30734538835908,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,67.49999999999997,63.27794107878868,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.64285714285712,62.94483721709532,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,60.7142857142857,63.91544587103641,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,52.85714285714285,62.22591860898127,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.57142857142856,52.74866339515212,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,37.14285714285714,56.14683480931129,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.28571428571428,10.0322967065957,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 -TFT,32.857142857142854,54.31239646459889,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,30.71428571428571,26.636130811588664,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,30.0,53.40506481164482,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,21.428571428571434,-162.5181303956725,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,20.0,28.559039675458386,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,14.285714285714285,4.312518151888689,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,14.285714285714285,-21.431026745629268,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.714285714285714,-59.16477242026188,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.1428571428571432,-65.48141502161853,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,83.44827586206898,65.24685534837047,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,81.3793103448276,65.46785431424527,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,78.62068965517244,65.09181820451573,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,78.62068965517243,65.47877258222164,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.86206896551722,65.02250890932473,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,74.48275862068967,65.08289133257598,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,73.79310344827584,63.901555686088926,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.10344827586208,64.93808949583952,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,71.0344827586207,64.33412565306647,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,70.34482758620689,64.78913859128755,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,68.27586206896551,64.30734538835908,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,68.27586206896551,63.60825806205861,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,67.58620689655173,63.75038371377927,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,67.24137931034481,63.27794107878868,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,64.48275862068962,62.94483721709532,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,60.0,63.91544587103641,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,52.413793103448256,62.22591860898127,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.24137931034482,52.74866339515212,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,35.86206896551724,56.14683480931129,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,33.79310344827585,10.0322967065957,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +TFT,31.72413793103448,54.31239646459889,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,29.655172413793103,26.636130811588664,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,28.965517241379313,53.40506481164482,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,21.37931034482759,-162.5181303956725,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,19.310344827586206,28.559039675458386,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.93103448275862,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,13.793103448275861,4.312518151888689,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,13.793103448275861,-21.431026745629268,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +Naive,5.517241379310345,-59.16477242026188,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.0689655172413794,-65.48141502161853,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv index 97ca0c2b596cfc6b2fc273fd0bd568effa302996..2e073978faeb2c0578ffbdb84cef8ffc9715fd7e 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -7,13 +7,13 @@ Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.007,0.087 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.038,-0.003,0.078 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.047,-0.008,0.1 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.041,-0.004,0.092 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.096 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.053,0.015,0.087 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.096 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.055,0.006,0.112 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.018,0.129 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.024,0.118 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.023,0.124 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.027,0.116 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.023,0.117 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.263,0.388 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.065,-0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -23,13 +23,13 @@ TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.014,-0.004,0.029 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.003,-0.047,0.038 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.012,-0.043,0.062 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.006,-0.047,0.048 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.03,0.051 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.009,0.042 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.03,0.051 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.036,0.063 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.039,0.002,0.08 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.039,0.001,0.069 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.005,0.077 TiRex-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.04,0.009,0.071 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.013,0.073 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.302,0.232,0.375 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.041,-0.09,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.046,0.046 @@ -39,13 +39,13 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.01,-0.034,0.065 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.013,0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.035,0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.003,-0.014,0.013 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.028,0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.051,0.078 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.028,0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.016,-0.004,0.03 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.016,0.09 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.035,-0.033,0.098 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,-0.005,0.057 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.033,0.101 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,0.007,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.202,0.389 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.005 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.013,-0.033,0.01 @@ -55,13 +55,13 @@ TiRex,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.015,0.016 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.01,-0.076,0.039 TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.061,0.046 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.07,0.039 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.053,0.035 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.016,0.023 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.053,0.035 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.007,-0.056,0.052 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.011,0.068 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.026,0.004,0.054 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.028,0.065 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,-0.0,0.055 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.033,0.058 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.222,0.364 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.095,-0.007 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.014,-0.029,0.004 @@ -71,13 +71,13 @@ citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.011,-0.07,0.025 citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.061,0.045 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.008,-0.066,0.031 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.003,-0.049,0.033 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.024,0.033 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.003,-0.049,0.033 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.006,-0.055,0.047 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.012,0.066 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.008,0.057 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,-0.02,0.058 citras-fm,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.003,0.054 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.028,0.053 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.292,0.218,0.374 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.04,-0.084,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.003,-0.039,0.045 @@ -87,13 +87,13 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.011,-0.026,0.065 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.033,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.003,-0.018,0.022 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.03,0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.043,0.078 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.03,0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.017,-0.008,0.04 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.024,0.093 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.027,0.092 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,-0.009,0.064 Toto-2.0-1B,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.024,0.096 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.031,0.006,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.204,0.387 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.049,-0.111,0.008 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.012,-0.066,0.041 @@ -103,13 +103,13 @@ FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.047,0.057 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.047,0.032 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.049,0.029 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.036,0.025 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.045,0.063 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.036,0.025 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.032,0.041 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.05,0.087 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.007,0.071 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.031,0.061 FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.028,-0.018,0.084 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.012,0.046 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.19,0.386 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.043,-0.102,0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.006,-0.05,0.045 @@ -119,30 +119,14 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.008,-0.032,0.062 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.003,-0.022,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.029,0.046 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.014,0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.047,0.071 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.014,0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.014,0.008,0.02 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.012,0.083 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.028,0.089 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,0.007,0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.034,-0.03,0.099 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.015,0.039 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.2,0.385 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.106,0.001 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.008,-0.033,0.027 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.037,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.003,-0.034,0.047 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.009,-0.033,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.025,0.035 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.024,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.008,0.026 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.068 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,0.003,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.029,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.022,0.013,0.035 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.196,0.38 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.095,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.044,0.009 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.085,0.048 @@ -151,14 +135,30 @@ Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.034,0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.015,-0.085,0.041 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.067,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.077,0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.064,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.064,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.066,0.059 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.022,0.08 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.021,0.0,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.035,0.074 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.002,0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.016,-0.043,0.067 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.231,0.351 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.106,0.001 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.008,-0.033,0.027 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.037,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.003,-0.034,0.047 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.009,-0.033,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.025,0.035 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.024,0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.06 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.008,0.026 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.018,0.071 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.068 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,0.003,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.029,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.196,0.38 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.058,-0.126,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.068,0.035 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.017,-0.031,0.004 @@ -167,14 +167,30 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.006,-0.049,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.041,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.043,0.031 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.014,-0.02,-0.009 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.027,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.062,0.062 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.027,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.026,0.07 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.041,0.075 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.005,0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.047,0.088 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.014,0.003,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.185,0.377 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.148,-0.019 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.041,-0.087,-0.002 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.099,0.016 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.073,0.011 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.071,0.012 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.103,0.023 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.096,0.048 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.09,0.012 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.022,-0.087,0.022 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.077,0.018 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.075,0.025 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.063,0.062 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.043,0.024 +TS-ICL,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.074,0.066 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.177,0.354 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.04,-0.074,-0.001 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.036,-0.109,0.032 @@ -183,13 +199,13 @@ Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.06,0.008 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.102,0.026 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.076,0.007 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.098,0.027 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.072,0.016 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.022,-0.044,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.072,0.016 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.081,0.04 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.066,0.059 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.057,0.048 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.02,0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.056,0.043 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.192,0.348 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.072,-0.141,-0.024 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.083,0.005 @@ -199,13 +215,13 @@ Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.062,0.02 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.068,0.009 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.065,0.03 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.028,-0.052,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.039,-0.004 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.016,-0.08,0.034 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.039,-0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.035,0.005 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.024,0.041 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.05,0.054 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.062,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.0,-0.02,0.02 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.18,0.366 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.131,-0.028 Sundial-Base,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.042,-0.076,-0.009 @@ -215,30 +231,14 @@ Sundial-Base,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.057,0.003 Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.106,0.024 Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.029,-0.092,0.018 Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.035,-0.11,0.029 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.028 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.047,0.002 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.028 Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.021,-0.096,0.045 +Sundial-Base,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.071,0.069 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.027,0.02 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.065,0.059 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.068,0.05 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.344 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.132,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.035,-0.079,0.012 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.051,-0.008 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.062,0.032 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.056,0.028 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.032,-0.05,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.049,0.012 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.028,-0.041,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.023,-0.036,-0.013 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.016,-0.071,0.042 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.014,-0.025,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.045,0.053 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.0,-0.02,0.019 -Toto-2.0-4m,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.053,0.064 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.175,0.368 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.633,-0.357 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.433,-0.6,-0.302 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.636,-0.254 @@ -247,11 +247,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.413,-0.597,-0.278 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.428,-0.63,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.628,-0.234 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.625,-0.25 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.612,-0.244 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.541,-0.3 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.612,-0.244 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.606,-0.227 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.549,-0.214 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.534,-0.238 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.577,-0.22 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.525,-0.251 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.581,-0.213 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv index b04d6ef646dbf5ff7edb2917d7cb4f08b19aa52f..38523e934205ec4afabb7345fcfbc8c23bbe79a8 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -6,14 +6,14 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.009,0.087 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.04,-0.005,0.086 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.041,-0.004,0.098 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.001,0.095 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.114 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.007,0.111 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.114 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.122 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.067,0.022,0.113 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.007,0.128 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.122 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.081,0.019,0.139 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.022,0.117 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.065,0.152 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.327,0.459 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.061,-0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -22,14 +22,14 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.049,0.047 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.048,0.047 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.045,0.057 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.029,0.053 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.001,0.063 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.027,0.075 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.001,0.063 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.013,0.076 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.035,0.007,0.069 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.031,0.086 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.007,0.077 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.003,0.091 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.034,-0.014,0.075 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.034,0.134 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.298,0.44 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.089,0.001 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.011,-0.03,0.011 @@ -38,14 +38,14 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.072,0.052 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.067,0.05 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.002,-0.064,0.049 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.048,0.043 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.005,0.044 TiRex,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.036,0.059 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.005,0.044 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.007,0.049 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.006,0.061 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.077 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.026,0.07 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.066 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.029,0.062 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.071,0.028,0.123 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.434 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.096,0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.05,0.047 @@ -54,14 +54,14 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.003,-0.005,0.011 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.014,0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.01,-0.025,0.036 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.038,0.105 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.021,0.069 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.038,0.105 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.028,-0.061,0.114 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.031,-0.014,0.08 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.002,0.044 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.006,0.053 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.046,-0.043,0.127 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,0.007,0.048 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.077,-0.001,0.148 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.265,0.462 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.041,-0.094,0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.049,0.046 @@ -70,14 +70,14 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.003,-0.011,0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.018,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.028,0.031 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.025,-0.036,0.101 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.021,-0.019,0.06 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.025,-0.036,0.101 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.059,0.106 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.028,-0.016,0.076 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.006,0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.008,0.053 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.041,0.124 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,0.004,0.043 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.074,0.002,0.145 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.269,0.459 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.043,-0.109,0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.008,-0.06,0.043 @@ -86,14 +86,14 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.014,0.014 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.017,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.014,0.024 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.039,0.097 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.017,0.065 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.039,0.097 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.056,0.106 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.005,0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.02,0.01,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,0.008,0.041 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.042,-0.039,0.116 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.026,0.013,0.038 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.003,0.138 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.261,0.456 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.105,0.001 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.015,-0.056,0.029 @@ -102,31 +102,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.01,-0.038,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.008,-0.032,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.034,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.01,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.034,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.092 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.018,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.01,0.04 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,0.002,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.101 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.02,0.012,0.03 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.067,0.005,0.127 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.265,0.447 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.068,-0.129,-0.011 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.068,0.001 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.046,0.005 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.029,-0.117,0.037 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.026,-0.112,0.035 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.108,0.038 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.095,0.033 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.077,0.04 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.033,0.032 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.094,0.063 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.066,0.057 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.048 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.002,-0.071,0.051 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,-0.008,0.126 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.27,0.432 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.007 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.081,0.026 FlowState,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.062,0.035 @@ -134,15 +118,31 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.024,-0.074,0.021 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.022,-0.064,0.019 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.069,0.016 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.048,0.01 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.042,0.072 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.042,0.072 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.057,0.083 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.062,0.057 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.049,0.047 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.045,0.044 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.025,0.086 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.006,-0.029,0.031 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.054,-0.005,0.119 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.261,0.444 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.068,-0.129,-0.011 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.068,0.001 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.046,0.005 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.029,-0.117,0.037 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.026,-0.112,0.035 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.108,0.038 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.095,0.033 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.077,0.04 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.033,0.032 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.003,-0.045,0.053 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.094,0.063 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.066,0.057 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.048 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.002,-0.071,0.051 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.27,0.432 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.082,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.052,0.007 @@ -150,15 +150,31 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.029,-0.129,0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.118,0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.119,0.053 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.101,0.049 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.033,0.032 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.091,0.054 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.033,0.032 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.003,-0.057,0.065 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.105,0.084 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.079,0.075 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,0.0,0.036 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.081,0.066 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,-0.008,0.107 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.291,0.411 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.072,-0.127,-0.023 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.074,-0.007 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.065,0.006 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.032,-0.087,0.014 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.029,-0.082,0.016 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.074,0.005 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.062,0.018 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.06,0.059 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.003,-0.056,0.043 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.003,-0.07,0.054 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.06,0.029 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.033,0.022 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.046,0.073 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.042,0.037 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.246,0.424 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.146,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.094,0.03 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.084,0.048 @@ -166,14 +182,14 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.046,0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.051,0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.021,-0.034,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.042,0.01 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.068,0.086 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.049,0.046 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.068,0.086 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.092,0.095 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.03,0.057 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.012,0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.065,0.105 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.006,-0.017,0.023 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.054,-0.029,0.126 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.235,0.45 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.02 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.083,0.007 @@ -182,14 +198,14 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.056,0.006 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.056,0.008 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.043,-0.008 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.037,-0.002 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.061,0.062 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.046,0.043 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.061,0.062 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.081,0.073 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.023,0.032 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.026,0.011 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.054,0.084 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.017,0.019 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,-0.029,0.116 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.24,0.437 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.088,-0.161,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.1,-0.003 @@ -198,14 +214,14 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.048,-0.145,0.041 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.142,0.039 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.044,-0.132,0.037 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.112,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.051,0.014 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.023,-0.095,0.025 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.051,0.014 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.037,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.016,-0.079,0.044 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.023,-0.117,0.061 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.091,0.051 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.096,0.05 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.023,0.092 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.271,0.409 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.132,-0.023 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.035,-0.081,0.014 @@ -214,31 +230,15 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.05,-0.007 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.028,-0.045,-0.004 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.04,-0.013 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.02,-0.031,-0.012 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.002,-0.054,0.066 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.006,-0.031,0.028 +Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.002,-0.054,0.066 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.07,0.075 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.038,0.04 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.006,-0.023,0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.019,0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.052,0.087 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.016,0.114 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.248,0.44 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.125,-0.179,-0.069 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.155,-0.036 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.076,-0.141,-0.029 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.083,-0.174,0.001 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.08,-0.169,-0.002 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.16,-0.003 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.072,-0.145,-0.005 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.145,0.008 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.057,-0.135,0.005 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.12,0.008 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.057,-0.144,0.028 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.131,0.028 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.101,0.023 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.129,0.016 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.253,0.382 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.848,-0.486 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.785,-0.424 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.768,-0.404 @@ -246,12 +246,12 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-0.858,-0.361 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.604,-0.85,-0.369 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-0.837,-0.353 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.807,-0.36 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-0.762,-0.37 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.797,-0.352 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-0.762,-0.37 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.563,-0.699,-0.411 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.737,-0.327 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.819,-0.307 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.775,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.692,-0.371 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.784,-0.329 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.618,-0.339 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 1789926fc976e208b9b7e814d86cfc52635a3cbd..26dc47c6eaaafe61579e8b730ffde7dab0768088 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.088,0.051 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.014,-0.095,0.045 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.008,-0.091,0.055 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.063,0.064 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.058,0.079 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.004,0.04 +TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.058,0.079 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.033,0.061 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.013,0.075 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,0.0,0.072 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.027,0.051 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.07,0.073 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.027,0.051 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.007,0.087 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.045,0.083 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.054,0.025,0.08 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.463,0.255,0.614 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.014,-0.004,0.035 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -21,15 +21,15 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.085,0.082 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.093,0.07 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.093,0.086 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.02,-0.057,0.091 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.025,-0.062,0.112 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.008,0.069 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.025,-0.062,0.112 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.03,0.091 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.011,0.102 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.01,0.084 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.031,0.069 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.075,0.106 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.031,0.069 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.062,0.015,0.106 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.04,-0.046,0.113 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.067,0.024,0.103 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.277,0.613 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.054,0.081 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.089,0.079 @@ -37,15 +37,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.023,0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.016,0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.036,0.056 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.005,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.032,0.086 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.005,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.015,0.065 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.017,0.088 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.042,-0.036,0.137 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.022,0.126 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.019,0.005,0.033 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.022,0.126 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.055,-0.024,0.143 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.033,0.023,0.042 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.004,0.112 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.224,0.639 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.014,-0.047,0.086 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.075,0.085 @@ -53,15 +53,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.009,0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.007,0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.026,0.058 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.014,0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.024,0.098 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.014,0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.015,0.073 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.02,0.104 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.049,-0.027,0.14 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.05,-0.017,0.132 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,0.001,0.049 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.05,-0.017,0.132 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.061,-0.014,0.146 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.04,0.018,0.054 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.067,0.012,0.119 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.223,0.641 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.008,-0.058,0.083 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.094,0.085 @@ -69,15 +69,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.015,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.019,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.039,0.064 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,-0.019,0.044 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.036,0.094 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,-0.019,0.044 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.024,0.076 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.039,-0.027,0.1 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.045,0.137 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.029,0.128 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.007,0.049 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.029,0.128 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.056,-0.027,0.14 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.034,0.012,0.051 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.061,0.0,0.122 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.22,0.642 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.069,0.059 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.021,-0.1,0.054 @@ -85,127 +85,143 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.059,0.035 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.062,0.025 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.068,0.038 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.042,0.05 FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.033,0.064 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.042,0.05 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.013,-0.024,0.042 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.051,0.076 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.032,0.114 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.036,0.104 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.039,0.051 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.036,0.104 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.042,-0.006,0.114 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.016,0.058 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.008,0.086 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.212,0.633 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.011,-0.086,0.055 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.026,-0.126,0.058 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.037,0.005 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.059,0.014 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.046,0.018 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.053,0.04 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.053,0.068 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.026,0.04 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.071,0.118 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.051,0.102 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.022,0.024 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.037,-0.046,0.125 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.015,-0.004,0.032 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.022,0.089 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.212,0.633 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.042,0.004 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.074,0.008 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.095,0.031 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.109,0.024 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.104,0.035 TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.069,0.032 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.073,0.05 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.073,0.05 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.044,0.032 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.031,0.063 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.055 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.006,0.043 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.085,0.045 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.006,0.043 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,0.002,0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.058,0.056 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,0.007,0.062 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.224,0.614 +Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.011,-0.086,0.055 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.026,-0.126,0.058 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.037,0.005 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.059,0.014 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.046,0.018 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.053,0.04 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.053,0.068 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.026,0.04 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.019,-0.023,0.065 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.071,0.118 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.022,0.024 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.051,0.102 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.037,-0.046,0.125 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.015,-0.004,0.032 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.212,0.633 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.065,0.032 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.1,0.029 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.069,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.079,0.015 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.083,0.023 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.013,-0.043,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.042,0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.034,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.042,0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.012,-0.027,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.042,0.095 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.031,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.047,0.027 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.031,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.029,0.101 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.027,0.04 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.035,0.002,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.216,0.62 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.081,0.013 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.113,0.011 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.097,0.016 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.116,0.019 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.04,-0.111,0.026 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.083,0.049 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.067,0.03 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.02,-0.069,0.022 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.012,-0.038,0.026 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.075,0.08 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.072,0.032 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.047,0.06 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.065,0.087 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.059,0.047 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.235,0.609 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.078,-0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.092,-0.01 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.044,-0.158,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.052,-0.163,0.026 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.159,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.129,0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.134,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.059,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.134,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.105,0.041 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.087,0.07 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.027,0.029 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.024,-0.149,0.059 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.027,0.029 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,0.0,0.025 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.01,-0.118,0.065 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.044,0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.234,0.607 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.054,-0.027 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.074,-0.032 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.145,0.022 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.052,-0.152,0.017 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.147,0.028 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.117,0.035 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.114,0.049 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.045,0.006 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.08,0.03 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.029,0.026 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.025,-0.128,0.043 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.012,-0.02,0.046 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.011,-0.101,0.054 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.027,0.052 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.232,0.6 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.078,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.118,0.07 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.02,-0.035,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.052,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.051,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.054,0.037 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.024,0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.078 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.024,0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.028,0.045 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.033,0.067 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.024,-0.063,0.13 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.024,-0.045,0.113 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.024,-0.045,0.113 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.036,-0.042,0.136 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.014,0.0,0.027 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.042,-0.012,0.095 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.207,0.632 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.054,-0.027 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.074,-0.032 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.145,0.022 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.052,-0.152,0.017 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.147,0.028 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.117,0.035 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.045,0.006 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.114,0.049 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.08,0.03 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.063,0.045 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.029,0.026 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.025,-0.128,0.043 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.012,-0.02,0.046 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.011,-0.101,0.054 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.232,0.6 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.095,-0.007 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.066,-0.119,-0.015 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.058,-0.167,0.024 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.065,-0.171,0.013 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.059,-0.163,0.027 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.044,-0.129,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.143,0.044 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.064,-0.002 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.143,0.044 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.112,0.028 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.095,0.061 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.026,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.012,-0.048,0.02 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.037,-0.158,0.04 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.012,-0.048,0.02 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.023,-0.125,0.049 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.053,0.048 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.216,0.604 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.09,0.043 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.127,0.044 @@ -213,45 +229,29 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.034,-0.044,-0.024 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.057,-0.019 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.035,-0.054,-0.012 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.021,-0.061,0.016 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.015,-0.034,0.004 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.059,0.055 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.015,-0.034,0.004 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.042,0.027 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.049,0.056 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.01,-0.069,0.106 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.011,-0.057,0.092 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.014,-0.028,-0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.011,-0.057,0.092 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.023,-0.051,0.111 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.021,0.076 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.193,0.627 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.057,-0.087,-0.026 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.072,-0.115,-0.025 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.126,-0.004 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.072,-0.135,-0.012 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.066,-0.139,-0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.094,-0.008 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.097,0.021 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.066,-0.007 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.061,-0.002 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.061,0.042 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.055,0.026 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.043,-0.105,0.012 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.05,0.05 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.082,0.021 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.202,0.599 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.861,-1.593,-0.343 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.888,-1.587,-0.384 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.874,-1.771,-0.289 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.887,-1.789,-0.287 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.877,-1.79,-0.282 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.727,-0.27 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.84,-1.726,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.827,-1.591,-0.288 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.84,-1.726,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.634,-0.276 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.804,-1.559,-0.308 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.545,-0.305 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.499,-0.302 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.838,-1.718,-0.26 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.499,-0.302 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.772,-1.526,-0.276 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.682,-0.24 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.761,-1.492,-0.253 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv index 331c280ddf43ea9b4867223cfb6e1a861063f205..7b1404cea4c690e9e74444d789a254f3f7bcb986 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.075,0.051 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.033,0.049 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.058,0.055 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.048,0.052 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.031,0.078 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.006,0.084 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.05,0.055 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.006,0.084 +TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.031,0.078 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.076,0.083 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.045,0.016,0.077 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.041,0.002,0.079 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.018,0.069 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.054,0.012,0.093 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.045,0.016,0.077 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.062,0.024,0.097 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.037,-0.023,0.083 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.4,0.807 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.076,0.083 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -21,15 +21,15 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.0,-0.063,0.038 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.108,0.124 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.034,0.055 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.011,-0.05,0.054 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.033,0.088 -FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.038,0.144 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.055,0.068 +FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.038,0.144 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.033,0.088 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.031,0.062 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.051,-0.029,0.147 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.046,0.122 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.007,0.072 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.06,-0.027,0.151 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.051,-0.029,0.147 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.068,-0.012,0.154 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.009,0.079 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.655,0.349,0.823 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.053,0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.0,-0.04,0.059 @@ -37,15 +37,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.011,-0.085,0.109 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.025,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.011,-0.007,0.026 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.001,0.074 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.036,0.133 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.006,0.043 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.036,0.133 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.001,0.074 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.007,0.04 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.051,-0.018,0.131 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.048,-0.009,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.017,0.072 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.06,-0.035,0.144 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.051,-0.018,0.131 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.068,-0.023,0.148 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.023,0.066 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.655,0.367,0.821 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.051,0.032 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.011,-0.142,0.098 @@ -53,15 +53,15 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.011,-0.122,0.078 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.112,0.084 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.095,0.077 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.021,-0.063,0.101 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.011,0.074 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.08,0.082 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.011,0.074 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.021,-0.063,0.101 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.124,0.114 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.041,0.008,0.072 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.039,0.099 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.063,0.09 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.015,0.087 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.041,0.008,0.072 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.058,0.021,0.1 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.075,0.111 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.412,0.8 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.059,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.058,0.032 @@ -69,15 +69,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.054,0.025 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.091,0.101 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.002,-0.042,0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.032,0.07 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.031,-0.031,0.124 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.002,-0.052,0.054 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.031,-0.031,0.124 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.032,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.031,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.039,-0.023,0.121 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.035,-0.01,0.078 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.015,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.034,0.132 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.039,-0.023,0.121 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.056,-0.012,0.133 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.031,0.015,0.05 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.65,0.373,0.816 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.055,0.046 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.011,-0.057,0.048 @@ -85,111 +85,111 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.011,-0.027,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.083,0.087 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.002,-0.041,0.04 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.021,-0.019,0.06 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.034,0.112 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.013,0.022 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.034,0.112 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.021,-0.019,0.06 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.034,0.043 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.019,0.107 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.018,0.097 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.015,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.049,-0.035,0.125 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.019,0.107 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.058,-0.016,0.13 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,0.008,0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.366,0.817 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.085,0.03 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.096,0.032 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.08,0.001 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.022,-0.112,0.059 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.075,0.031 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.021,-0.063,0.019 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.049,0.073 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.017,-0.043,0.016 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.013,-0.082,0.026 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.044,0.069 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.056,0.052 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.06,0.097 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.037,-0.04,0.099 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.045,0.056 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.359,0.812 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.092,0.006 -TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.168,0.037 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.153,0.035 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.08,0.011 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.032,-0.142,0.03 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.126,0.033 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.079,0.046 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.03,-0.108,0.038 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.16,0.06 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.013,0.027 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.011,-0.096,0.039 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.018,0.051 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.005,0.056 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.0,-0.108,0.061 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.379,0.8 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.059,0.047 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.015,-0.073,0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.016,-0.045,0.006 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.089,0.074 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.002,-0.057,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.022,0.013 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.017,-0.016,0.041 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.029,-0.04,0.097 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.029,-0.04,0.097 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.017,-0.016,0.041 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.052,0.046 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.025,0.096 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.023,0.108 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.018,-0.028,0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.045,-0.041,0.124 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.025,0.096 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.054,-0.024,0.126 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.028,-0.01,0.065 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.362,0.815 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.092,0.006 +TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.168,0.037 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.153,0.035 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.08,0.011 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.032,-0.142,0.03 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.126,0.033 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.03,-0.108,0.038 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.079,0.046 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.16,0.06 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.088,0.078 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.011,-0.096,0.039 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.018,0.051 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.013,0.027 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.005,0.056 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.379,0.8 +Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.085,0.03 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.096,0.032 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.08,0.001 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.022,-0.112,0.059 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.075,0.031 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.021,-0.063,0.019 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.017,-0.043,0.016 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.049,0.073 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.013,-0.082,0.026 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.035,0.096 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.056,0.052 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.06,0.097 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.044,0.069 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.037,-0.04,0.099 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.359,0.812 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.091,0.071 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.066,0.03 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.042,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.128,0.11 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.044,0.03 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.044,0.033 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.013,-0.027,0.076 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.064,0.138 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.049,0.049 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.064,0.138 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.013,-0.027,0.076 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.061,0.137 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.029,-0.039,0.097 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.013,-0.048,0.063 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.064,0.147 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.061,0.137 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.05,-0.043,0.148 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.003,0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.648,0.35,0.821 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.047,-0.083,-0.016 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.054,-0.172,0.028 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.054,-0.151,0.018 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.042,-0.078,-0.008 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.04,-0.138,0.023 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.12,0.019 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.075,0.042 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.027,0.012 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.106,0.025 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.158,0.058 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.02,-0.09,0.024 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.02,0.039 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.01,0.045 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.009,-0.103,0.054 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.373,0.798 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.043,-0.086,-0.002 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.139,0.044 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.05,-0.13,0.009 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.109,0.037 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.084,0.01 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.107,0.017 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.121,0.023 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.085,0.081 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.016,-0.106,0.034 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.03,-0.108,0.038 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.016,-0.077,0.042 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.013,-0.066,0.083 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.069,0.072 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.022,-0.052,0.087 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.371,0.805 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.075,0.018 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.078,0.007 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.077,0.017 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.022,-0.099,0.059 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.054,0.015 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.022,-0.058,0.014 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.054,0.053 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.011,-0.041,0.087 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.018,-0.066,0.027 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.011,-0.041,0.087 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.054,0.053 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.014,-0.067,0.046 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.019,-0.025,0.083 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.044,0.071 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.024,0.095 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.019,-0.025,0.083 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.01,0.097 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.019,0.043 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.356,0.81 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.057,-0.103,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.063,-0.178,0.026 @@ -197,61 +197,61 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.064,-0.168,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.096,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.152,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.052,-0.143,0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.107,0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.054,0.018 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.047,-0.141,0.039 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.054,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.107,0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.043,-0.173,0.06 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.041,0.02 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.013,-0.09,0.062 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.029,-0.105,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.041,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.009,0.0,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.116,0.057 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.633,0.366,0.794 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.047,-0.083,-0.016 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.054,-0.172,0.028 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.054,-0.151,0.018 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.042,-0.078,-0.008 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.04,-0.138,0.023 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.12,0.019 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.106,0.025 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.027,0.012 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.075,0.042 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.158,0.058 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.078,0.064 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.02,-0.09,0.024 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.02,0.039 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.01,0.045 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.373,0.798 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.066,-0.108,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.073,-0.182,0.012 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.073,-0.174,0.022 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.062,-0.111,-0.021 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.059,-0.154,0.012 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.061,-0.149,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.11,0.039 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.059,0.005 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.057,-0.145,0.023 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.059,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.11,0.039 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.052,-0.173,0.041 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.047,0.01 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.022,-0.095,0.05 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.107,0.01 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.009,-0.022,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.047,0.01 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.117,0.047 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.629,0.357,0.794 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.038,-0.09,0.023 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.086,0.009 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.071,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.125,0.07 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.032,-0.052,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.059,-0.008 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.06,0.043 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.0,-0.065,0.098 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.029,-0.069,0.009 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.051,0.003 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.008,-0.057,0.093 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.011,-0.045,0.018 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.061,0.104 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.05,0.105 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.349,0.812 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.877,-4.195,-0.667 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.896,-4.661,-0.536 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.897,-4.595,-0.579 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.865,-3.998,-0.7 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.859,-4.429,-0.596 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.864,-4.459,-0.576 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.804,-4.31,-0.56 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.77,-3.99,-0.611 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.852,-4.394,-0.566 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.77,-3.99,-0.611 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.804,-4.31,-0.56 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.84,-4.591,-0.538 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.748,-3.952,-0.594 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.759,-4.128,-0.589 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.802,-4.252,-0.553 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.723,-3.847,-0.577 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.748,-3.952,-0.594 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.699,-3.847,-0.554 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.771,-4.315,-0.537 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 7ab99d376e000b98555f62b38e941262b8fced37..594b9c754766af07f08de6368af20ae8da51ddc4 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,90.35714285714283,31.501656661779908,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,78.9285714285714,26.670825436519785,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.96428571428572,23.432210875851045,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,73.92857142857142,27.322868191033013,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,71.42857142857144,22.162040270601192,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,71.07142857142857,23.41682939670412,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.89285714285714,23.164381828232894,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,69.28571428571429,22.314968062878627,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,66.07142857142857,21.665602207453883,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.87499999999998,26.291414549069813,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,60.71428571428571,20.329247975232857,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,59.285714285714285,19.878967411486848,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.660714285714285,19.520837065786147,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.33928571428572,19.67587758208953,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,49.46428571428571,19.1295976521051,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,47.142857142857146,19.084439307791044,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,45.714285714285715,13.665854293094004,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,44.107142857142854,16.430178452927592,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,42.142857142857146,17.60920708012651,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.392857142857146,16.038005227805108,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -TFT,34.46428571428571,13.175210398386616,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,32.32142857142857,10.280766783137185,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,31.607142857142854,6.213953011349793,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,31.607142857142854,9.268311929671036,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,25.89285714285714,10.226042550887172,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,21.07142857142857,6.532646730847547,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.0,-6.914332491950659,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.482142857142854,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 -Drift,11.785714285714285,-11.344894425429741,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,90.17241379310343,31.501656661779908,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,78.9655172413793,26.670825436519785,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.89655172413794,23.432210875851045,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,73.9655172413793,27.322868191033013,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,71.3793103448276,22.162040270601192,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.86206896551724,23.164381828232894,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.68965517241381,23.41682939670412,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,68.96551724137932,22.314968062878627,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,66.0344827586207,21.665602207453883,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.10344827586207,25.835353399807527,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.81034482758619,26.291414549069813,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,60.51724137931035,20.329247975232857,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,58.9655172413793,19.878967411486848,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,53.18965517241379,19.520837065786147,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.12068965517241,19.67587758208953,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,48.62068965517241,19.1295976521051,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,46.379310344827594,19.084439307791044,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,44.82758620689655,13.665854293094004,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,42.93103448275862,16.430178452927592,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,41.55172413793103,17.60920708012651,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.758620689655174,16.038005227805108,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +TFT,33.79310344827586,13.175210398386616,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,31.551724137931032,10.280766783137185,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,30.862068965517235,9.268311929671036,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,30.689655172413786,6.213953011349793,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,25.172413793103445,10.226042550887172,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,20.344827586206897,6.532646730847547,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +Naive,19.48275862068965,-6.914332491950659,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.844827586206893,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Drift,11.551724137931032,-11.344894425429741,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 7539ceabb672866bf87906757cfe96ec628d40e2..5d2cc10f38d3209a342463e072baf518d436ba1a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.9642857142857,43.96240636415071,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,83.74999999999999,39.968306218668594,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,81.78571428571428,36.82355570111464,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,80.71428571428572,37.10811207552987,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 -FlowState,74.82142857142857,36.91651544152842,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,73.57142857142856,40.57408550474503,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.67857142857143,34.958147253380446,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,69.82142857142856,35.075657832582216,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,68.92857142857143,34.56498518351769,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.69642857142856,38.92001120631144,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,66.42857142857143,34.68497929932541,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,63.39285714285714,33.9070736885615,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.69642857142856,34.1076058240865,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.55357142857143,33.39092759318447,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 -Toto-1.0,52.5,30.948733152914755,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.142857142857146,32.08087705910183,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,41.785714285714285,25.327733981726908,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 -TFT,40.0,24.46284341523206,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,33.214285714285715,23.978096920266523,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,33.035714285714285,25.749307386319252,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,30.625000000000004,17.866358236369507,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.999999999999993,19.31393349762639,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,25.71428571428571,-30.072080438930016,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,24.821428571428566,18.810374229704784,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,24.374999999999996,17.74409557595822,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,20.89285714285714,18.765037629801505,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.214285714285715,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.017857142857142,-24.7653188720226,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.857142857142857,-28.889461387600647,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.37931034482757,43.96240636415071,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,83.44827586206897,39.968306218668594,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,81.37931034482759,36.82355570111464,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,80.17241379310344,37.10811207552987,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +FlowState,74.13793103448275,36.91651544152842,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,73.44827586206897,40.57408550474503,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.24137931034484,34.958147253380446,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,69.48275862068965,35.075657832582216,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,68.96551724137929,38.625202944942984,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,68.62068965517241,34.56498518351769,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,66.29310344827586,38.92001120631144,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,65.86206896551722,34.68497929932541,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,62.58620689655173,33.9070736885615,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.77586206896552,34.1076058240865,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,58.87931034482759,33.39092759318447,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.03448275862069,30.948733152914755,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.03448275862068,32.08087705910183,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,40.689655172413794,25.327733981726908,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +TFT,38.9655172413793,24.46284341523206,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,32.241379310344826,23.978096920266523,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,32.06896551724138,25.749307386319252,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,29.741379310344833,17.866358236369507,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,29.3103448275862,19.31393349762639,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,25.17241379310345,-30.072080438930016,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,23.965517241379306,18.810374229704784,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,23.534482758620687,17.74409557595822,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,20.344827586206893,18.765037629801505,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,12.758620689655173,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.706896551724135,-24.7653188720226,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.7586206896551726,-28.889461387600647,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 8c041b9f326a1d8f53aecf8b8237d50b1667a5e7..9672a01d16f7f66ca4e5e3f53c897a1c9028372a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,86.42857142857142,36.37961364988923,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,80.0,35.03350454694202,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,78.57142857142858,31.740748400621065,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.50000000000001,28.10958849169818,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,76.51785714285715,35.43689733973191,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.42857142857143,27.941312204131997,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,74.46428571428571,26.676882475661646,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571429,26.631433929913772,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,71.60714285714286,27.31582024068637,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,67.32142857142858,26.949602028666487,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,60.535714285714285,25.293100446884985,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,58.214285714285715,24.252442323864077,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.51785714285714,21.679296308228114,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 -CatBoost,51.07142857142858,22.444864726974835,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,51.07142857142857,22.449939976619714,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.19642857142858,21.34999505620995,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,44.82142857142857,19.76025668063852,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,41.60714285714286,21.20431215616717,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,41.42857142857143,19.631922812750414,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,39.642857142857146,15.823911544994452,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 -TFT,34.28571428571429,16.59662312309126,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.57142857142857,13.942686864644848,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,26.607142857142858,9.663627642868011,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.25,11.985677005338214,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,25.71428571428571,6.800703153372501,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,18.57142857142857,8.923499543559977,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 -Naive,16.42857142857143,-5.797212837788179,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.839285714285712,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.5,-11.068953116330738,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,86.20689655172413,36.37961364988923,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,80.17241379310346,35.03350454694202,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,78.79310344827587,31.740748400621065,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.58620689655173,28.10958849169818,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,76.4655172413793,35.43689733973191,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.37931034482759,27.941312204131997,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,74.48275862068967,26.676882475661646,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.96551724137932,26.631433929913772,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,71.72413793103448,27.31582024068637,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,67.24137931034484,26.949602028666487,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,60.68965517241377,25.293100446884985,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,59.31034482758619,28.641838115165918,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,57.931034482758626,24.252442323864077,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.94827586206896,21.679296308228114,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +LightGBM,50.51724137931035,22.449939976619714,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,50.3448275862069,22.444864726974835,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,49.22413793103448,21.34999505620995,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,43.96551724137931,19.76025668063852,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,41.03448275862069,21.20431215616717,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,40.862068965517246,19.631922812750414,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,38.9655172413793,15.823911544994452,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +TFT,33.62068965517242,16.59662312309126,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,27.758620689655167,13.942686864644848,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,26.034482758620687,9.663627642868011,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.51724137931034,11.985677005338214,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.344827586206897,6.800703153372501,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,18.103448275862068,8.923499543559977,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.034482758620687,-5.797212837788179,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.36206896551724,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.413793103448276,-11.068953116330738,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 028564a9adc11617bd264430f5ed96f8e70af556..0567e21a48935e2e89e3a8a99e3682bb899450c5 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.64285714285714,48.70640034385884,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,83.21428571428572,48.23296275172553,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,81.25000000000001,45.40544912522533,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,78.39285714285714,41.29715565976512,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.5,41.64654327392226,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,76.87499999999999,47.751193623423625,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.71428571428572,41.54428741602817,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,74.46428571428571,41.56173820974464,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,72.14285714285714,41.259624645979585,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,71.60714285714286,41.470209968122006,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 -citras-fm,66.25000000000001,39.71569372223447,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,64.64285714285714,39.557111139066,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.55357142857143,37.46657312331687,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.94642857142856,37.464866729843635,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,52.85714285714286,35.67867635279438,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,49.46428571428571,36.736141457888785,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.21428571428571,28.152681721748152,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,36.78571428571429,30.89417851183718,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -TFT,36.785714285714285,28.227242900863803,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,32.14285714285715,28.454473066200702,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,28.392857142857135,23.488538196591747,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.96428571428571,21.431184822537432,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,26.428571428571423,23.49354513163928,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,25.982142857142854,19.745157899183717,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,23.21428571428572,-32.00072845680435,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,21.517857142857146,21.22969362810797,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.785714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 -Naive,7.767857142857144,-25.33036065111638,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.5,-29.953276450679468,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,89.31034482758619,48.70640034385884,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,83.62068965517243,48.23296275172553,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,81.20689655172416,45.40544912522533,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,78.44827586206897,41.29715565976512,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,77.06896551724138,41.64654327392226,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,76.98275862068964,47.751193623423625,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.51724137931035,41.54428741602817,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,74.48275862068965,41.56173820974464,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,72.0689655172414,41.259624645979585,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,71.20689655172414,41.470209968122006,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +citras-fm,66.03448275862071,39.71569372223447,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.6551724137931,39.557111139066,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.41379310344828,42.32667988131473,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,58.879310344827594,37.46657312331687,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,57.49999999999999,37.464866729843635,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.724137931034484,35.67867635279438,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.62068965517242,36.736141457888785,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,37.41379310344827,28.152681721748152,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,35.86206896551724,30.89417851183718,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +TFT,35.86206896551724,28.227242900863803,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,31.379310344827584,28.454473066200702,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,27.413793103448274,23.488538196591747,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,26.379310344827584,21.431184822537432,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,25.68965517241379,23.49354513163928,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.258620689655164,19.745157899183717,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,22.931034482758623,-32.00072845680435,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,20.775862068965516,21.22969362810797,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.379310344827585,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.500000000000001,-25.33036065111638,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.4137931034482762,-29.953276450679468,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv index c4e05ce816c524e861ffe2ee7e0ecdbb4e944b71..2054305172e6403db784a5a1c49a6273d49b53ef 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -7,11 +7,11 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.12,0.057,0.189 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.046,0.172 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.109,0.054,0.169 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.118,0.06,0.179 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.071,-0.002,0.153 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.07,0.185 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.071,-0.002,0.153 Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.08,0.216 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.076,0.03,0.12 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.14,0.078,0.201 -Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.153,0.084,0.215 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.087,0.212 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.091,0.208 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.234,0.388 @@ -23,11 +23,11 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.016,-0.005,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.0,-0.018,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.003,-0.022,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.014,-0.011,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.039,-0.169,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,0.001,0.041 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.039,-0.169,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.044,0.017,0.077 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.032,-0.144,0.05 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.039,0.009,0.065 -TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.053,-0.043,0.133 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.049,0.019,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.047,0.027,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.306 @@ -39,11 +39,11 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,0.001,0.117 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.042,-0.018,0.109 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.046,-0.009,0.111 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.056,0.004,0.118 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.005,-0.075,0.08 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.064,0.012,0.127 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.005,-0.075,0.08 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.085,0.032,0.145 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.011,-0.049,0.054 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.027,0.139 -TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,0.008,0.165 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.089,0.036,0.146 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.087,0.035,0.145 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.267,0.193,0.335 @@ -55,11 +55,11 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.066,-0.033,0.163 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.051,-0.058,0.155 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.06,0.155 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.064,-0.042,0.161 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.014,-0.014,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.072,-0.03,0.168 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.014,-0.014,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.093,0.013,0.18 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.02,-0.05,0.072 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.088,-0.017,0.18 -TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.101,0.003,0.187 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,-0.005,0.189 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.095,-0.004,0.184 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.273,0.168,0.364 @@ -71,11 +71,11 @@ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.016,-0.042,0.004 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.013,-0.054,0.019 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.002,-0.036,0.029 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.056,-0.189,0.046 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.006,-0.029,0.034 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.056,-0.189,0.046 TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.028,0.007,0.053 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.851,-0.05,-0.163,0.037 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.023,-0.014,0.055 -TiRex,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.037,-0.066,0.119 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,0.001,0.066 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.031,0.001,0.057 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.222,0.146,0.292 @@ -87,11 +87,11 @@ FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.016,-0.004,0.04 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.003,-0.021,0.027 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.014,-0.008,0.037 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.039,-0.175,0.074 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.022,-0.001,0.045 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.039,-0.175,0.074 FlowState,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.044,0.012,0.083 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.033,-0.148,0.052 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.012,0.065 -FlowState,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.053,-0.046,0.133 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.048,0.014,0.088 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.047,0.023,0.074 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.234,0.159,0.303 @@ -103,11 +103,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.013,-0.019,0.051 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.003,-0.028,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.2,0.65,0.011,-0.002,0.026 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.042,-0.176,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.499,0.9,0.019,0.004,0.034 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.042,-0.176,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,0.004,0.09 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.851,-0.036,-0.147,0.044 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.036,0.011,0.057 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.05,-0.042,0.122 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.045,0.016,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.043,0.017,0.074 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.232,0.156,0.302 @@ -119,30 +119,14 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.002,-0.03,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.014,-0.038,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.011,-0.027,0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.054,-0.185,0.058 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.008,-0.004,0.024 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.054,-0.185,0.058 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.03,-0.003,0.073 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.047,-0.153,0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.025,0.01,0.039 -Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.039,-0.049,0.112 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,0.004,0.066 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.033,0.006,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.223,0.152,0.29 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.076,-0.181,0.002 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.037,-0.076,0.145 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.005,-0.087,0.07 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.014,-0.054,0.014 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.053,-0.048,0.159 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.038,-0.08,0.149 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.041,-0.083,0.15 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.051,-0.061,0.156 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.059,-0.054,0.165 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.08,-0.01,0.176 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.075,-0.037,0.176 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.089,-0.021,0.184 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.084,-0.03,0.188 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.082,-0.028,0.185 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.263,0.147,0.361 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.227,-0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.023,-0.043,-0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.068,-0.145,-0.012 @@ -151,14 +135,30 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.006,-0.035,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.023,-0.047,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.501,-0.02,-0.036,-0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.008,-0.024,0.004 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.063,-0.198,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.063,-0.198,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.35,0.85,0.022,-0.009,0.064 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.056,-0.163,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.017,-0.001,0.032 -Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.031,-0.065,0.11 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.005,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.025,-0.002,0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.217,0.138,0.288 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.076,-0.181,0.002 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.037,-0.076,0.145 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.005,-0.087,0.07 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.014,-0.054,0.014 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.053,-0.048,0.159 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.038,-0.08,0.149 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.041,-0.083,0.15 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.051,-0.061,0.156 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.059,-0.054,0.165 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.08,-0.01,0.176 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.006,-0.075,0.07 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.075,-0.037,0.176 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.084,-0.03,0.188 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.082,-0.028,0.185 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.263,0.147,0.361 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.17,-0.275,-0.087 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.046,-0.083,-0.018 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.093,-0.169,-0.033 @@ -167,14 +167,30 @@ citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.029,-0.056,-0.008 citras-fm,FlowState,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.046,-0.091,-0.012 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.099,-0.004 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.031,-0.078,0.003 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.087,-0.213,0.01 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.15,0.65,-0.023,-0.068,0.009 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.087,-0.213,0.01 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.08,-0.189,0.007 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.006,-0.051,0.029 -citras-fm,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.009,-0.099,0.094 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.004,-0.043,0.039 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.003,-0.044,0.034 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.199,0.113,0.274 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.083,-0.137,-0.031 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.031,-0.053,0.126 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.011,-0.058,0.047 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.02,-0.077,0.048 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.3,0.149,0.5,0.047,-0.038,0.14 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.032,-0.054,0.129 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.149,0.5,0.035,-0.046,0.128 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.045,-0.033,0.133 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.053,-0.029,0.14 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.006,-0.075,0.07 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.074,-0.007,0.159 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.069,-0.008,0.151 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,0.004,0.166 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.077,0.001,0.162 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.339 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.163,-0.251,-0.085 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.041,-0.07,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.086,-0.162,-0.027 @@ -183,30 +199,14 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.024,-0.058,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.04,-0.069,-0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.037,-0.061,-0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.026,-0.041,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.081,-0.213,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.017,-0.034,0.001 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.081,-0.213,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.006,-0.029,0.049 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.074,-0.178,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.015,-0.087,0.095 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.01,-0.027,0.045 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.008,-0.021,0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.203,0.13,0.27 -CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.181,-0.273,-0.092 -CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.056,-0.154,0.041 -CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.103,-0.198,-0.008 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.113,-0.231,-0.003 -CatBoost,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.039,-0.136,0.062 -CatBoost,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.056,-0.154,0.044 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.053,-0.138,0.04 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.041,-0.126,0.047 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.097,-0.225,0.021 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.032,-0.123,0.061 -CatBoost,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.009,-0.103,0.09 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.015,-0.105,0.08 -CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.005,-0.082,0.082 -CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.007,-0.097,0.084 -CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.191,0.111,0.268 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.175,-0.269,-0.095 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.051,-0.089,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.098,-0.171,-0.037 @@ -215,11 +215,11 @@ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.034,-0.071,-0.001 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.051,-0.096,-0.015 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.047,-0.082,-0.017 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.07,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.092,-0.232,0.029 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.027,-0.061,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.092,-0.232,0.029 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.004,-0.04,0.042 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.085,-0.199,-0.004 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.01,-0.047,0.026 -Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.005,-0.089,0.076 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.375,0.775,-0.002,-0.025,0.018 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.195,0.11,0.267 @@ -231,11 +231,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.032,-0.061,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.049,-0.08,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.045,-0.08,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.034,-0.068,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.09,-0.226,0.027 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.025,-0.057,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.09,-0.226,0.027 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.003,-0.035,0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.083,-0.193,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.008,-0.045,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.007,-0.091,0.089 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.425,0.225,0.625,0.002,-0.018,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.197,0.112,0.272 @@ -247,11 +247,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.285,-0.413,-0.17 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.306,-0.434,-0.189 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.432,-0.184 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.287,-0.409,-0.179 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.357,-0.566,-0.173 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.277,-0.405,-0.161 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.357,-0.566,-0.173 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.248,-0.378,-0.127 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.513,-0.207 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.255,-0.37,-0.149 -Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.237,-0.367,-0.125 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.243,-0.365,-0.123 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.245,-0.374,-0.126 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv index 1d35de500056df66cacd5e66aafb1314bb5a75e4..0ea0c80577c2802c502f8260309eca2a74758dfd 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -4,254 +4,254 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.067,0.02,0.117 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.174 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.113,0.05,0.183 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.138,0.081,0.198 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.112,0.049,0.179 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.057,-0.006,0.13 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.112,0.049,0.179 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.137,0.081,0.196 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.144,0.074,0.217 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.083,0.003,0.165 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.087,0.039,0.134 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.083,0.204 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.152,0.084,0.216 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.15,0.091,0.211 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.159,0.096,0.22 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.12,0.253 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.349,0.516 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.071,-0.133,-0.02 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.045,-0.011,0.105 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.05,-0.003,0.108 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.249,0.65,0.077,0.015,0.142 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.048,-0.009,0.11 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.01,-0.081,0.048 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.048,-0.009,0.11 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,0.024,0.134 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.083,0.031,0.138 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.017,-0.066,0.1 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.022,-0.039,0.064 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.081,0.028,0.138 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.041,0.147 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.089,0.042,0.141 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.099,0.05,0.152 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.131,0.079,0.181 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.317,0.474 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.122,-0.211,-0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.048,-0.118,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.012,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.033,-0.003,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.018,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.058,-0.175,0.037 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.018,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.031,0.005,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.039,0.01,0.073 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.03,-0.163,0.077 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.025,-0.132,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.037,0.012,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.048,0.021,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.046,0.027,0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.056,0.028,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.089,0.048,0.136 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.452 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.127,-0.224,-0.052 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.121,0.003 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.02,0.012 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.008,0.069 -TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.019,0.016 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.063,-0.181,0.035 +TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.019,0.016 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.002,0.057 TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.035,0.011,0.064 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.034,-0.17,0.078 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.851,-0.029,-0.148,0.052 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.033,0.009,0.056 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.044,0.024,0.064 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.019,0.066 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.052,0.023,0.083 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.046,0.129 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.285,0.444 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.161,-0.246,-0.089 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.751,-0.083,-0.166,-0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.034,-0.077,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.074,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.031,-0.074,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.095,-0.221,0.018 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.031,-0.074,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.002,-0.025,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.006,-0.049,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.065,-0.209,0.061 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.06,-0.167,0.025 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.004,-0.029,0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.016,-0.032,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,-0.034,0.053 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.029,0.069 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.058,-0.003,0.114 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.254,0.429 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.126,-0.218,-0.052 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.051,-0.123,0.009 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.025,0.017 -FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.016,0.019 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.03,-0.004,0.069 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.062,-0.184,0.043 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,0.002,0.056 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.036,0.003,0.075 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.033,-0.168,0.078 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.034,0.01,0.058 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.046,0.019,0.072 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.043,0.013,0.076 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.053,0.015,0.096 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.086,0.037,0.136 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.285,0.445 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.06,-0.149,0.006 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.01,-0.051,0.075 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.055,-0.038,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.059,-0.036,0.153 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.086,-0.018,0.181 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.045,0.155 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.045,0.155 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.085,-0.01,0.173 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.092,0.015,0.176 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.027,-0.015,0.086 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.027,0.079 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.09,0.0,0.178 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.101,0.01,0.185 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.098,0.009,0.183 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.108,0.015,0.195 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.139,0.046,0.228 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.293,0.499 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.126,-0.218,-0.052 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.051,-0.123,0.009 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.025,0.017 +FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.016,0.019 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.03,-0.004,0.069 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.062,-0.184,0.043 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,0.002,0.056 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.036,0.003,0.075 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.033,-0.168,0.078 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.028,-0.137,0.055 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.034,0.01,0.058 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.046,0.019,0.072 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.043,0.013,0.076 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.053,0.015,0.096 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.285,0.445 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.159,-0.243,-0.089 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.082,-0.155,-0.025 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.032,-0.062,-0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.061,0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.002,-0.016,0.025 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.029,-0.059,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.093,-0.209,0.01 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.029,-0.059,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.008,-0.034,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.063,-0.198,0.053 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.058,-0.161,0.022 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.006,-0.012,0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.018,-0.016,0.042 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.015,-0.019,0.046 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.025,-0.017,0.061 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.06,0.01,0.109 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.261,0.426 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.168,-0.278,-0.08 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.09,-0.16,-0.032 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.04,-0.078,-0.01 citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.036,-0.068,-0.011 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.006,-0.064,0.047 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.037,-0.081,-0.003 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.101,-0.214,-0.015 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.037,-0.081,-0.003 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.008,-0.058,0.033 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.071,-0.198,0.039 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.066,-0.176,0.019 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.002,-0.042,0.033 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.01,-0.025,0.037 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.007,-0.042,0.04 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,-0.029,0.054 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.052,-0.002,0.103 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.253,0.427 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.09,-0.198,-0.003 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.017,-0.112,0.061 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.029,-0.083,0.14 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.033,-0.085,0.145 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.061,-0.065,0.173 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.032,-0.084,0.143 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.028,-0.094,0.015 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.032,-0.084,0.143 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.059,-0.056,0.166 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.067,-0.041,0.166 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.005,-0.081,0.079 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.065,-0.049,0.172 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.076,-0.04,0.18 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.041,0.178 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.083,-0.035,0.189 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.115,0.001,0.216 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.389,0.273,0.49 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.095,-0.154,-0.04 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.022,-0.069,0.037 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.024,-0.061,0.116 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.3,0.149,0.5,0.029,-0.055,0.129 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.056,-0.026,0.143 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.086,0.026 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.027,-0.058,0.121 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.055,-0.022,0.139 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.062,-0.019,0.15 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.005,-0.086,0.075 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.06,-0.018,0.143 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.071,-0.005,0.151 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.069,-0.006,0.156 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.079,0.006,0.165 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.286,0.472 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.257,-0.091 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.088,-0.16,-0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.039,-0.065,-0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.034,-0.059,-0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.004,-0.033,0.028 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.035,-0.061,-0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.099,-0.216,-0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.035,-0.061,-0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.006,-0.023,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.002,-0.034,0.04 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.069,-0.208,0.047 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.064,-0.167,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.012,-0.011,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.009,-0.025,0.04 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.019,-0.02,0.058 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.054,0.007,0.104 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.258,0.424 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.179,-0.276,-0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.173,-0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.051,-0.08,-0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.046,-0.068,-0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.016,-0.052,0.031 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.048,-0.078,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.112,-0.226,-0.011 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.048,-0.078,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.018,-0.044,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.01,-0.039,0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.082,-0.22,0.038 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.077,-0.178,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.012,-0.03,0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.003,-0.031,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.008,-0.028,0.043 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.043,0.004,0.088 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.253,0.415 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.176,-0.268,-0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.098,-0.164,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.048,-0.072,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.071,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.056,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.045,-0.082,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.109,-0.224,-0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.045,-0.082,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.015,-0.048,0.019 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.007,-0.042,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.216,0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.074,-0.185,0.006 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.009,-0.042,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.003,-0.028,0.03 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.8,0.011,-0.005,0.028 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.046,0.016,0.087 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.341,0.248,0.419 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.189,-0.282,-0.106 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.11,-0.179,-0.052 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.059,-0.096,-0.029 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.054,-0.091,-0.024 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.024,-0.074,0.029 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.056,-0.106,-0.015 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.121,-0.242,-0.015 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.056,-0.106,-0.015 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.026,-0.065,0.017 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.057,0.029 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.091,-0.233,0.033 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.085,-0.197,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.02,-0.062,0.02 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.008,-0.045,0.027 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.2,0.575,-0.011,-0.029,0.005 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.035,0.006,0.074 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.334,0.239,0.414 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.339,-0.136 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.15,-0.221,-0.086 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.098,-0.158,-0.05 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.148,-0.048 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.062,-0.129,0.003 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.095,-0.158,-0.039 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.162,-0.295,-0.048 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.064,-0.122,-0.011 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.055,-0.115,0.002 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.131,-0.276,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.057,-0.116,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.045,-0.096,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.048,-0.095,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.037,-0.08,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.223,0.379 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.067,-0.536 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-0.899,-0.465 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.825,-0.393 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.797,-0.399 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.537,-0.752,-0.34 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.803,-0.398 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.683,-0.994,-0.414 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.803,-0.398 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.54,-0.743,-0.353 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.744,-0.338 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.637,-0.962,-0.375 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.629,-0.895,-0.4 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.531,-0.736,-0.349 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.711,-0.339 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.518,-0.722,-0.33 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.501,-0.706,-0.313 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.448,-0.612,-0.287 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 72e507d3c14e861bc16cb19cf635edd44355da74..1e4681c0cff1206347024f4a10c67d8fe540485d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -2,8 +2,8 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.249,0.65,0.021,-0.031,0.075 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.115,0.051,0.18 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.038,0.07 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.068,0.019,0.117 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.038,0.07 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.117,0.054,0.183 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.133,0.063,0.207 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.067,0.202 @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.125,0.061,0.193 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.061,0.201 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.083,0.212 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.16,0.095,0.227 -Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.18,0.111,0.244 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.108,0.053,0.165 Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.18,0.095,0.254 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.188,0.116,0.258 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.191,0.119,0.266 @@ -19,8 +19,8 @@ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.288,0.436 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.751,-0.021,-0.081,0.03 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.096,-0.008,0.194 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.038,0.03 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.048,0.005,0.097 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.038,0.03 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.098,-0.004,0.193 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.115,0.016,0.214 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.114,0.015,0.214 @@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.106,0.006,0.202 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.111,0.009,0.207 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.13,0.04,0.219 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.062,0.226 -TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.162,0.079,0.241 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.09,0.039,0.138 TabPFN-TS-3,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.162,0.059,0.253 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.171,0.074,0.259 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.174,0.079,0.263 @@ -36,8 +36,8 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.268,0.428 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.13,-0.22,-0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.107,-0.24,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.113,-0.247,0.005 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.053,-0.15,0.02 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.113,-0.247,0.005 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.002,-0.006,0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.02,-0.018,0.068 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.02,-0.012,0.056 @@ -45,33 +45,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.011,0.001,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.016,-0.021,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.038,0.015,0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.051,0.017,0.091 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.073,-0.019,0.147 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.007,-0.128,0.082 Toto-2.0-2.5B,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.073,-0.02,0.16 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.082,0.039,0.135 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.145 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.206,0.358 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.075,0.037 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.031,0.036 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.102,-0.005,0.198 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.054,-0.004,0.117 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.104,0.001,0.197 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.12,0.01,0.221 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.119,0.014,0.216 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.112,0.009,0.206 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.116,0.007,0.216 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.136,0.038,0.226 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.148,0.054,0.236 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.168,0.08,0.25 -TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.167,0.064,0.266 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.176,0.074,0.27 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.179,0.074,0.275 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.354,0.262,0.436 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.073,-0.132,-0.019 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.051,-0.108,-0.005 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.051,-0.021,0.13 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.057,-0.132,0.004 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.057,-0.132,0.004 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.053,-0.015,0.127 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,-0.01,0.15 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.069,-0.005,0.142 @@ -79,16 +62,33 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.061,-0.006,0.136 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.066,-0.013,0.147 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.086,0.028,0.15 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.099,0.039,0.165 -TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.12,0.029,0.205 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.043,-0.023,0.103 TiRex-2,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.12,0.013,0.217 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.059,0.199 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.132,0.055,0.211 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.254,0.382 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.075,0.037 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.031,0.036 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.102,-0.005,0.198 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.054,-0.004,0.117 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.104,0.001,0.197 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.12,0.01,0.221 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.119,0.014,0.216 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.112,0.009,0.206 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.116,0.007,0.216 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.136,0.038,0.226 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.148,0.054,0.236 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.095,0.03,0.162 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.167,0.064,0.266 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.176,0.074,0.27 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.179,0.074,0.275 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.354,0.262,0.436 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.133,-0.224,-0.057 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.109,-0.239,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.002,-0.01,0.006 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.116,-0.246,-0.001 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.056,-0.145,0.015 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.116,-0.246,-0.001 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.018,-0.023,0.068 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.017,-0.017,0.058 @@ -96,7 +96,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.009,0.002,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.014,-0.025,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.035,0.017,0.054 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.016,0.089 -Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.071,-0.025,0.149 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.01,-0.128,0.082 Toto-2.0-1B,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.071,-0.022,0.159 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.08,0.034,0.136 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.084,0.035,0.148 @@ -104,8 +104,8 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.206,0.352 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.261,-0.068 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.129,-0.272,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.021,-0.073,0.018 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.136,-0.284,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.075,-0.177,0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.136,-0.284,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.018,-0.074,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 @@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.009,-0.064,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.004,-0.034,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,-0.039,0.057 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.031,0.0,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.054,-0.047,0.139 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.028,-0.149,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.054,-0.045,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.063,0.033,0.097 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.037,0.101 @@ -121,8 +121,8 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.266,0.186,0.344 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.253,-0.072 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.129,-0.272,-0.015 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.02,-0.06,0.012 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.136,-0.275,-0.015 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.074,-0.165,0.005 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.136,-0.275,-0.015 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.018,-0.061,0.017 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.05,0.022 TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.026,0.018 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.019,-0.025,0.05 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,0.005,0.058 -TiRex,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.055,-0.053,0.136 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.028,-0.156,0.06 TiRex,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.055,-0.048,0.136 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.064,0.035,0.098 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.068,0.037,0.103 @@ -138,8 +138,8 @@ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.19,0.34 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.142,-0.239,-0.065 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.119,-0.252,-0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.011,-0.02,-0.001 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.126,-0.26,-0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.065,-0.157,0.006 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.126,-0.26,-0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.009,-0.016,-0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.009,-0.029,0.061 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.023,0.047 @@ -147,7 +147,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.033,0.046 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.027,0.01,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.04,0.011,0.079 -Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.063,-0.033,0.142 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.019,-0.139,0.071 Toto-2.0-313m,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.063,-0.035,0.153 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.072,0.027,0.126 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.076,0.029,0.14 @@ -155,8 +155,8 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.348 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.251,-0.065 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.124,-0.261,-0.009 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.016,-0.058,0.021 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.131,-0.276,-0.007 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.07,-0.172,0.013 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.131,-0.276,-0.007 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.014,-0.059,0.024 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.004,-0.022,0.033 FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.018,0.025 @@ -164,7 +164,7 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.048,0.032 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.022,-0.022,0.06 FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.036,0.005,0.069 -FlowState,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.058,-0.047,0.146 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.024,-0.147,0.067 FlowState,LightGBM,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.058,-0.045,0.148 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.751,0.067,0.025,0.116 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.071,0.033,0.114 @@ -172,8 +172,8 @@ FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.196,0.347 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.174,-0.27,-0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.15,-0.28,-0.041 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.039,-0.065,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.157,-0.292,-0.04 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.094,-0.177,-0.029 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.157,-0.292,-0.04 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.037,-0.058,-0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.061,0.037 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.019,-0.053,0.024 @@ -181,7 +181,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.028,-0.047,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.023,-0.064,0.022 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.014,-0.017,0.051 -Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.037,-0.069,0.123 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.047,-0.161,0.042 Toto-2.0-22m,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.037,-0.07,0.134 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.046,0.0,0.107 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.05,0.003,0.12 @@ -189,8 +189,8 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.184,0.323 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.191,-0.294,-0.106 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.292,-0.066 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.054,-0.1,-0.017 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.173,-0.308,-0.058 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.11,-0.198,-0.04 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.173,-0.308,-0.058 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.051,-0.098,-0.016 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.032,-0.064,-0.0 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.061,-0.005 @@ -198,33 +198,33 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.042,-0.085,-0.011 citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.037,-0.074,-0.005 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.014,-0.054,0.017 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,CatBoost,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.023,-0.075,0.105 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.062,-0.178,0.023 citras-fm,LightGBM,0.55,0.3,0.8,0.023,-0.085,0.113 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.033,-0.001,0.072 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.037,-0.0,0.085 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.243,0.168,0.318 -CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.219,-0.323,-0.125 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.194,-0.318,-0.086 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.079,-0.172,0.019 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.201,-0.333,-0.087 -CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.136,-0.257,-0.03 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.076,-0.175,0.024 -CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.057,-0.161,0.045 -CatBoost,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.058,-0.157,0.051 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.067,-0.165,0.032 -CatBoost,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.062,-0.171,0.045 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.038,-0.141,0.064 -CatBoost,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.024,-0.117,0.07 -CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.0,-0.057,0.042 -CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.01,-0.071,0.1 -CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.014,-0.076,0.109 -CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.224,0.138,0.309 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.198,-0.056 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.098,-0.161,-0.041 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.007,-0.09,0.114 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.045,-0.115,0.023 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.105,-0.194,-0.031 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.01,-0.09,0.113 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.027,-0.07,0.13 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.027,-0.064,0.135 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.018,-0.076,0.122 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.023,-0.072,0.128 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.045,-0.044,0.139 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.058,-0.023,0.151 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,0.0,0.159 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.089,0.006,0.176 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.093,0.006,0.184 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.199,0.37 LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.219,-0.341,-0.105 LightGBM,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.194,-0.339,-0.063 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.079,-0.19,0.019 -LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.201,-0.363,-0.069 LightGBM,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.136,-0.278,-0.013 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.201,-0.363,-0.069 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.076,-0.189,0.021 LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.057,-0.161,0.043 LightGBM,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.058,-0.158,0.046 @@ -232,7 +232,7 @@ LightGBM,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.067,-0.181,0.033 LightGBM,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.062,-0.173,0.043 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.038,-0.155,0.065 LightGBM,citras-fm,0.45,0.2,0.7,-0.024,-0.127,0.078 -LightGBM,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.0,-0.044,0.054 +LightGBM,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.19,-0.0 LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.01,-0.07,0.098 LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.014,-0.065,0.099 @@ -240,8 +240,8 @@ LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.224,0.132,0.306 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.231,-0.348,-0.131 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.206,-0.35,-0.08 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.089,-0.156,-0.041 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.213,-0.37,-0.08 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.249,-0.063 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.213,-0.37,-0.08 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.087,-0.157,-0.036 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.067,-0.107,-0.034 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.068,-0.109,-0.036 @@ -249,7 +249,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.078,-0.145,-0.028 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.45,0.249,0.65,-0.072,-0.131,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.048,-0.12,-0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.034,-0.077,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.01,-0.111,0.066 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.098,-0.214,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.01,-0.108,0.065 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.35,0.7,0.004,-0.023,0.031 @@ -257,8 +257,8 @@ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.217,0.127,0.299 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.236,-0.362,-0.135 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.211,-0.356,-0.086 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.094,-0.169,-0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.218,-0.379,-0.08 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.152,-0.267,-0.058 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.218,-0.379,-0.08 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.091,-0.174,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.112,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.073,-0.115,-0.038 @@ -266,7 +266,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.082,-0.163,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.077,-0.129,-0.034 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.053,-0.136,-0.003 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.038,-0.093,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.014,-0.122,0.071 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.102,-0.226,-0.006 Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.014,-0.11,0.061 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.475,0.3,0.65,-0.004,-0.032,0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -274,8 +274,8 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.119,0.299 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.772,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.748,-0.365 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.557,-0.259 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.549,-0.772,-0.355 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.465,-0.617,-0.341 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.549,-0.772,-0.355 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.388,-0.544,-0.259 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.363,-0.524,-0.228 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.514,-0.235 @@ -283,7 +283,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.534,-0.25 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.532,-0.243 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.477,-0.226 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.32,-0.466,-0.202 -Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.289,-0.447,-0.16 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.586,-0.248 Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.289,-0.44,-0.152 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.277,-0.426,-0.145 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.271,-0.426,-0.135 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv index 8dd3d52f0b006c2dbc36ec3da0692a4c7b9b2813..877ab6989e078c11e5de196ebfcef00c4c408313 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -2,8 +2,8 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.049,0.07 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.06,0.001,0.119 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.06,0.196 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.018,-0.048,0.087 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.06,0.196 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.121,0.056,0.189 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.123,0.059,0.186 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.122,0.06,0.185 @@ -11,15 +11,15 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.063,0.193 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.124,0.055,0.196 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.082,0.218 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.151,0.084,0.217 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.111,0.055,0.166 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.18,0.114,0.245 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.114,0.243 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.203,0.132,0.268 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.404,0.561 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.075,0.047 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.052,0.009,0.104 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.118,0.025,0.212 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.009,-0.034,0.059 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.118,0.025,0.212 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.113,0.019,0.203 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.114,0.017,0.206 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.114,0.022,0.202 @@ -27,15 +27,15 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.119,0.025,0.208 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.116,0.019,0.209 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.141,0.064,0.223 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.144,0.057,0.229 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.102,0.056,0.152 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.172,0.084,0.253 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.172,0.086,0.254 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.195,0.113,0.271 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.393,0.561 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.064,-0.135,-0.001 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.055,-0.116,-0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.07,-0.002,0.138 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.045,-0.132,0.027 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.07,-0.002,0.138 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.064,-0.008,0.135 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.066,-0.007,0.143 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.066,-0.002,0.138 @@ -43,31 +43,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.071,0.003,0.143 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.067,-0.007,0.143 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.094,0.038,0.154 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,0.037,0.158 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.053,-0.016,0.11 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.064,0.191 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.06,0.196 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.098,0.202 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.454,0.376,0.521 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.244,-0.064 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.134,-0.269,-0.025 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.075,-0.16,0.002 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.124,-0.271,0.002 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.004,-0.038,0.026 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.005,-0.034,0.024 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.001,-0.025,0.023 -TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.026,0.02 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.026,0.002,0.051 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.029,0.006,0.05 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.094 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.091 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,0.05,0.13 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.332,0.489 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.095,0.046 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.009,-0.063,0.033 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.043,-0.028,0.116 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.11,-0.002,0.213 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.11,-0.002,0.213 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.105,-0.006,0.205 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.106,-0.01,0.21 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.106,-0.007,0.204 @@ -75,15 +59,31 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.111,-0.0,0.209 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.107,-0.003,0.207 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.133,0.038,0.227 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.136,0.031,0.228 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.094,0.017,0.167 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.164,0.061,0.258 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.164,0.056,0.261 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.188,0.087,0.276 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.478,0.38,0.561 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.244,-0.064 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.134,-0.269,-0.025 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.075,-0.16,0.002 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.124,-0.271,0.002 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.004,-0.038,0.026 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.005,-0.034,0.024 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.001,-0.025,0.023 +TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.026,0.02 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.026,0.002,0.051 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.029,0.006,0.05 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.018,-0.141,0.066 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.094 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.091 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.332,0.489 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.138,-0.233,-0.059 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.127,-0.254,-0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.069,-0.156,0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.014,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.117,-0.259,0.006 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.014,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.002,-0.042,0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.001,-0.041,0.036 @@ -91,15 +91,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.007,-0.032,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.003,-0.025,0.029 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.7,0.499,0.9,0.032,0.006,0.057 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.035,-0.002,0.066 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.012,-0.126,0.075 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.067,0.037,0.1 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.038,0.097 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.093,0.047,0.143 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.331,0.495 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.14,-0.229,-0.063 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.129,-0.26,-0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.071,-0.166,0.007 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.004,-0.026,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.119,-0.265,0.01 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.004,-0.026,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.002,-0.04,0.04 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.0,-0.017,0.012 @@ -107,15 +107,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.005,-0.013,0.019 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.001,-0.039,0.044 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.012,0.074 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,0.005,0.061 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.014,-0.13,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.023,0.112 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.065,0.023,0.113 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.091,0.041,0.139 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.329,0.494 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.139,-0.227,-0.064 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.129,-0.254,-0.022 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.07,-0.161,0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.005,-0.024,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.118,-0.257,0.007 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.005,-0.024,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.001,-0.037,0.039 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.0,-0.012,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -123,15 +123,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.005,-0.005,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.035,0.04 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,-0.003,0.071 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,0.011,0.056 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.013,-0.127,0.074 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.024,0.11 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.066,0.025,0.112 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.091,0.049,0.136 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.328,0.492 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.24,-0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.135,-0.263,-0.025 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.076,-0.167,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.001,-0.023,0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.124,-0.264,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.001,-0.023,0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.007,-0.039,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.005,-0.02,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.005,-0.013,0.005 @@ -139,15 +139,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.004,-0.035,0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.026,-0.004,0.06 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.028,0.011,0.045 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.019,-0.136,0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.061,0.025,0.102 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.061,0.024,0.104 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.046,0.13 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.328,0.489 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.141,-0.243,-0.058 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.131,-0.264,-0.02 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.072,-0.166,0.007 -FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.02,0.026 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.12,-0.261,0.003 +FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.02,0.026 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.003,-0.03,0.024 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.001,-0.046,0.037 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.042,0.034 @@ -155,15 +155,15 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.004,-0.031,0.034 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.751,0.029,-0.001,0.062 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.032,0.001,0.064 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.015,-0.132,0.073 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.064,0.02,0.112 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.064,0.026,0.107 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.09,0.039,0.143 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.33,0.495 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.175,-0.279,-0.089 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.165,-0.286,-0.068 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.104,-0.182,-0.039 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.027,-0.053,-0.003 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.154,-0.293,-0.039 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.027,-0.053,-0.003 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.501,-0.033,-0.06,-0.006 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.031,-0.079,0.012 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.032,-0.077,0.003 @@ -171,15 +171,15 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.026,-0.064,0.004 citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.249,0.7,-0.03,-0.066,0.001 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.003,-0.025,0.025 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.045,-0.165,0.037 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.036,0.005,0.07 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.036,0.004,0.075 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.063,0.028,0.106 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.314,0.476 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.178,-0.277,-0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.168,-0.297,-0.06 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.107,-0.188,-0.039 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.03,-0.053,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.157,-0.296,-0.032 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.03,-0.053,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.036,-0.07,0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.034,-0.065,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.034,-0.059,-0.011 @@ -187,15 +187,31 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.029,-0.048,-0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.033,-0.068,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.003,-0.026,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.048,-0.165,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.033,-0.001,0.073 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.033,-0.0,0.079 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.06,0.029,0.1 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.314,0.468 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.124,-0.199,-0.058 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.114,-0.179,-0.059 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.056,-0.123,0.015 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.104,-0.201,-0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.018,-0.071,0.124 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.012,-0.082,0.112 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.013,-0.084,0.115 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.013,-0.08,0.113 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.018,-0.074,0.12 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.015,-0.079,0.116 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.043,-0.039,0.142 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.046,-0.037,0.142 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,-0.001,0.163 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.078,-0.003,0.167 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.323,0.507 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.219,-0.325,-0.128 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.208,-0.338,-0.092 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.236,-0.069 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.104,-0.036 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.197,-0.347,-0.064 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.104,-0.036 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.072,-0.112,-0.038 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.126,-0.023 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.124,-0.025 @@ -203,15 +219,15 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.065,-0.114,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.068,-0.127,-0.02 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.037,-0.076,-0.005 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.035,-0.079,0.001 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.084,-0.195,0.001 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.475,0.3,0.65,0.0,-0.024,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,-0.014,0.069 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.375,0.286,0.451 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.322,-0.129 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.208,-0.34,-0.095 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.243,-0.064 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.1,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.197,-0.353,-0.059 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.1,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.107,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.07,-0.128,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.126,-0.025 @@ -219,31 +235,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.065,-0.116,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.068,-0.12,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.037,-0.081,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.035,-0.086,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.084,-0.201,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.525,0.35,0.7,-0.0,-0.022,0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.028,-0.02,0.076 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.375,0.282,0.455 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.366,-0.152 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.243,-0.371,-0.128 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.178,-0.253,-0.108 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.096,-0.149,-0.053 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.231,-0.382,-0.095 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.102,-0.167,-0.049 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.1,-0.162,-0.043 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.101,-0.158,-0.051 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.149,-0.048 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.099,-0.166,-0.041 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.067,-0.119,-0.029 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.064,-0.111,-0.03 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.029,-0.074,0.013 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.029,-0.082,0.019 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.279,0.424 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.95,-1.275,-0.677 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.278,-0.648 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.832,-1.088,-0.601 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.703,-0.957,-0.497 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.914,-1.278,-0.612 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.703,-0.957,-0.497 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-0.982,-0.495 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-0.975,-0.489 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-0.969,-0.489 @@ -251,7 +251,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.702,-0.958,-0.488 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.709,-0.982,-0.493 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.659,-0.907,-0.457 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.654,-0.879,-0.459 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.734,-1.028,-0.477 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.599,-0.822,-0.4 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.599,-0.835,-0.393 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.388 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv index de35485b10f50486c4cf4f45b8bf26d7a64b3ce5..7e3d074f89866dfb9b55bfad47ba7f4adcc43369 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,82.67857142857143,32.33462591493779,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,79.82142857142858,29.484621746234474,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.21428571428572,28.589935763752727,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,77.14285714285715,27.39375784946123,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,73.21428571428571,28.250201935398746,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.17857142857142,26.456553037061724,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,68.75000000000001,25.812997332141517,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,67.85714285714286,26.310922480013378,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.14285714285715,27.32711942416035,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 -citras-fm,66.24999999999999,26.604845375718078,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.28571428571426,26.219011288531625,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.92857142857141,25.612362207783157,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,57.857142857142854,23.206408545048664,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,55.803571428571445,27.071675026391638,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 -Toto-1.0,55.53571428571428,25.150075353237867,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,54.64285714285714,24.019807404184125,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,48.92857142857143,22.564631891671016,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,46.42857142857143,20.962768609596882,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,43.75000000000001,21.104084940286395,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.57142857142857,19.610053947514793,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 -TFT,33.39285714285714,16.24394791361502,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,31.78571428571429,17.60348552820039,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,27.857142857142854,14.046475775318722,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,27.142857142857146,14.206772560096903,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,22.14285714285714,8.426290992667196,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,18.749999999999996,8.013909721452405,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.69642857142857,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.0,-12.058300085396546,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.250000000000002,-13.725349207058368,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.75862068965517,32.33462591493779,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.0,29.484621746234474,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.10344827586208,28.589935763752727,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +TiRex,77.24137931034484,27.39375784946123,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,73.27586206896552,28.250201935398746,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.17241379310344,26.456553037061724,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,68.44827586206897,25.812997332141517,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,67.93103448275862,26.310922480013378,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.06896551724138,27.32711942416035,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +citras-fm,66.03448275862067,26.604845375718078,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,64.13793103448273,26.219011288531625,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,63.79310344827584,25.612362207783157,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,58.44827586206897,27.78216800245813,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,57.24137931034482,23.206408545048664,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,55.77586206896553,27.071675026391638,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +Toto-1.0,55.00000000000001,25.150075353237867,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,54.48275862068965,24.019807404184125,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.275862068965516,22.564631891671016,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,46.37931034482759,20.962768609596882,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,43.44827586206897,21.104084940286395,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,37.58620689655173,19.610053947514793,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +TFT,32.931034482758626,16.24394791361502,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,31.034482758620683,17.60348552820039,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,27.068965517241377,14.046475775318722,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,26.379310344827587,14.206772560096903,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,21.72413793103448,8.426290992667196,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,18.275862068965516,8.013909721452405,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.293103448275858,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.655172413793103,-12.058300085396546,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.03448275862069,-13.725349207058368,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 91c0ed77e5a943d35b400a172928bf15740e20b2..106ca087d66405eca38f9f8371d9cb96144ef99c 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.28571428571429,40.241553705242325,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,84.28571428571428,37.20661460897712,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.71428571428571,35.70932536691862,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,79.64285714285715,36.21512359135406,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,73.57142857142858,34.20036962571038,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.39285714285715,34.30608154282804,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,73.21428571428574,36.38409783372577,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,71.07142857142857,35.235748193480255,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 -citras-fm,70.89285714285715,34.62641656604545,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,68.92857142857143,33.80526265868134,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.75,34.57369581909669,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.57142857142858,33.231151028003566,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,61.60714285714286,32.43440844148379,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.89285714285714,33.533977961386974,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.83928571428571,34.19450526988148,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.57142857142857,31.16311870045906,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,40.71428571428572,26.539906909008327,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -TFT,38.660714285714285,22.27606386903942,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.42857142857142,24.79006525446703,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,31.071428571428577,21.22121308421785,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,29.464285714285708,20.120766929488475,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,25.35714285714285,14.9301643137155,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,25.089285714285708,14.294397638336442,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,24.82142857142857,13.191993375720667,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,23.75,13.347203632390958,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.392857142857142,15.776905337592694,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.553571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 -Naive,6.25,-43.691472811269946,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.214285714285715,-44.75542175816074,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,84.3103448275862,37.20661460897712,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.79310344827586,40.241553705242325,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,80.6896551724138,35.70932536691862,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,79.48275862068964,36.21512359135406,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,73.44827586206898,34.20036962571038,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.27586206896551,34.30608154282804,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,73.10344827586208,36.38409783372577,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,70.6896551724138,34.62641656604545,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,70.68965517241378,35.235748193480255,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,68.62068965517241,33.80526265868134,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.27586206896552,34.57369581909669,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,64.31034482758622,35.721804917964775,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,62.93103448275862,33.231151028003566,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,60.86206896551724,32.43440844148379,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,59.82758620689654,33.533977961386974,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.53448275862069,34.19450526988148,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.93103448275862,31.16311870045906,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,40.0,26.539906909008327,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +TFT,37.672413793103445,22.27606386903942,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,35.34482758620689,24.79006525446703,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,30.000000000000004,21.22121308421785,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,28.79310344827587,20.120766929488475,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,24.655172413793103,14.9301643137155,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,24.568965517241374,14.294397638336442,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,24.137931034482758,13.191993375720667,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,23.103448275862064,13.347203632390958,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,22.75862068965517,15.776905337592694,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.051724137931032,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.0344827586206895,-43.691472811269946,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.1034482758620694,-44.75542175816074,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 0ea7d9d2d2d161e5eb2cecd134d887d2fe8f4ba6..2b0e58fd1284c7a24e4d3036645623fac2b22473 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,82.85714285714285,34.735886193284756,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.42857142857143,30.331123518560123,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,76.42857142857142,30.048380594127288,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.89285714285714,31.06965155182424,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.28571428571429,29.438621779192953,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,72.32142857142857,29.345011784688257,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,71.78571428571428,31.361118613889825,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,70.17857142857143,29.395351182223994,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.07142857142857,29.395646169542744,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 -citras-fm,65.35714285714286,28.813613264891856,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.892857142857146,27.111852608105036,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.55357142857144,31.05700816902527,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,59.10714285714286,27.50602341437721,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,58.92857142857143,25.835963292065955,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,55.53571428571428,24.782966501614755,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.00000000000001,27.089976643088885,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,51.24999999999999,25.824470924035413,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,49.285714285714285,22.597567437556975,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,41.25,21.484842601837784,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,39.285714285714285,20.770111290736605,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,30.892857142857146,18.81370670043465,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 -TFT,29.999999999999993,15.894814429818338,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.214285714285715,17.77794697606161,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.53571428571429,14.370876624664398,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,21.78571428571428,7.249016480338232,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,21.249999999999996,9.543981657156008,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.499999999999996,-11.759514098130408,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.982142857142854,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.142857142857142,-13.85845893302955,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.10344827586206,34.735886193284756,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,76.72413793103445,30.048380594127288,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.37931034482759,30.331123518560123,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +TiRex-2,76.0344827586207,31.06965155182424,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.48275862068967,29.438621779192953,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,72.75862068965515,29.345011784688257,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,72.06896551724138,31.361118613889825,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,70.68965517241381,29.395351182223994,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,65.6896551724138,29.395646169542744,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +citras-fm,64.99999999999999,28.813613264891856,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.34482758620688,27.111852608105036,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.5689655172414,31.05700816902527,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,59.13793103448275,27.50602341437721,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,58.620689655172406,25.835963292065955,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,57.24137931034482,29.58304480467261,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,54.99999999999999,24.782966501614755,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,53.96551724137931,27.089976643088885,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.862068965517246,25.824470924035413,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,49.137931034482754,22.597567437556975,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,40.862068965517246,21.484842601837784,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,38.62068965517241,20.770111290736605,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,30.17241379310345,18.81370670043465,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +TFT,29.3103448275862,15.894814429818338,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,27.413793103448274,17.77794697606161,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.827586206896548,14.370876624664398,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,21.551724137931032,7.249016480338232,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,20.68965517241379,9.543981657156008,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.241379310344824,-11.759514098130408,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.603448275862066,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.896551724137931,-13.85845893302955,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv index b595d91c8e849e202d2840fe88c07c2ad9b6acb7..9228939c71e2ad9807cd4ea6ed0a6ecd3ff4df14 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,83.39285714285714,44.776563341107924,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,79.82142857142857,40.695403658294204,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 -TiRex-2,79.64285714285715,41.35047562605596,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,79.28571428571429,40.60690859146885,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.42857142857142,40.05727690413393,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.25,40.091535519698354,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,76.07142857142858,42.13928857591004,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,73.57142857142858,39.95839791326732,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,71.78571428571428,39.911642441923746,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 -citras-fm,70.17857142857142,39.516970275559714,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.89285714285714,38.31376582969731,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.0,38.49451295549834,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.875000000000014,40.520744318361224,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 -FlowState,61.25000000000001,36.62739364766787,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.464285714285715,38.13822702047026,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,55.53571428571428,37.091644862848426,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.32142857142857,31.246086652472282,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,35.892857142857146,26.721365391127915,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 -TFT,33.660714285714285,22.687799915564245,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,31.250000000000007,25.85193474759363,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,26.607142857142858,21.589312484907442,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,26.428571428571423,18.53997314875826,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,26.07142857142857,18.15925526450699,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,24.999999999999996,17.368916958295777,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,24.017857142857142,18.494720285493216,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,20.71428571428571,16.511025407352477,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.410714285714283,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 -Naive,6.7857142857142865,-44.14903496940348,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.3928571428571432,-45.704490127704766,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.62068965517241,44.776563341107924,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,79.82758620689656,40.695403658294204,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +TiRex-2,79.65517241379312,41.35047562605596,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,79.65517241379311,40.60690859146885,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.55172413793102,40.091535519698354,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.37931034482759,40.05727690413393,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,76.20689655172414,42.13928857591004,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.44827586206898,39.95839791326732,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,71.3793103448276,39.911642441923746,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +citras-fm,70.0,39.516970275559714,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,65.17241379310344,38.31376582969731,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.82758620689654,38.49451295549834,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.931034482758605,40.263858860252434,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.46551724137932,40.520744318361224,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +FlowState,60.689655172413815,36.62739364766787,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +Toto-1.0,58.27586206896551,38.13822702047026,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,54.82758620689655,37.091644862848426,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,41.20689655172414,31.246086652472282,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,34.827586206896555,26.721365391127915,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +TFT,32.67241379310344,22.687799915564245,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,30.172413793103452,25.85193474759363,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,26.034482758620687,21.589312484907442,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,25.68965517241379,18.53997314875826,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.344827586206897,18.15925526450699,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,24.137931034482758,17.368916958295777,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,23.18965517241379,18.494720285493216,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,20.0,16.511025407352477,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.982758620689651,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.551724137931035,-44.14903496940348,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.2758620689655173,-45.704490127704766,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv index 3e10c9d5c159e9b99696f838d08e2f676888a9df..e9a9b6d8579567b4ce940082f35b99458c95e5dc 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -12,8 +12,8 @@ Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.078,0.017,0.153 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.09,0.034,0.152 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.083,0.034,0.145 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.052,0.194 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.063,0.019,0.106 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.072,0.012,0.146 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.096,0.032,0.162 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.255,0.4 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.042,-0.102,0.007 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -28,8 +28,8 @@ TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.004,0.075 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,0.0,0.113 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.044,0.006,0.083 TiRex-2,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.082,0.019,0.162 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.024,-0.04,0.064 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.033,-0.043,0.097 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.058,0.031,0.09 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.229,0.383 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.073,-0.169,-0.007 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.03,-0.068,0.007 @@ -44,8 +44,8 @@ TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.011,-0.004,0.027 TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.017,0.069 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.013,0.041 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,0.002,0.123 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.005,-0.1,0.047 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.004,-0.104,0.079 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.03,-0.002,0.058 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.214,0.351 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.131,0.004 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.013,-0.042,0.015 @@ -60,8 +60,8 @@ TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.599,0.9,0.027,0.001,0.056 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.04,0.002,0.094 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.032,0.008,0.064 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.07,0.017,0.151 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.011,-0.073,0.06 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.021,-0.077,0.098 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.046,0.022,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.221,0.371 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.06,-0.15,-0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.099,0.056 @@ -76,8 +76,8 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.022,-0.047,0.107 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.036,0.12 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.046,0.113 TabPFN-TS-3,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.066,-0.003,0.149 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.006,-0.054,0.054 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.016,-0.028,0.065 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.041,-0.05,0.136 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.217,0.359 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.087,-0.149,-0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.043,-0.079,-0.007 @@ -92,8 +92,8 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.045,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.011,-0.038,0.066 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.036,0.038 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.042,-0.03,0.123 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.018,-0.096,0.03 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.008,-0.115,0.075 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.017,-0.015,0.048 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.265,0.191,0.348 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.096,-0.164,-0.042 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.086,-0.021 @@ -108,8 +108,8 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.011,-0.053,0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.003,-0.046,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.046,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.034,-0.033,0.109 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.027,-0.105,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.017,-0.119,0.064 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.009,-0.027,0.042 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.188,0.34 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.089,-0.16,-0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.045,-0.079,-0.015 @@ -124,8 +124,8 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.049,0.041 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.009,-0.044,0.071 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.001,-0.042,0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.04,-0.036,0.122 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.02,-0.1,0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.01,-0.115,0.073 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.016,-0.017,0.045 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.263,0.186,0.351 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.074,-0.156,-0.014 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.031,-0.068,0.006 @@ -140,8 +140,8 @@ Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.01,-0.016,0.041 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.016,0.077 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.015,-0.006,0.043 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.005,0.136 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.006,-0.097,0.048 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.004,-0.101,0.086 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.029,0.006,0.052 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.208,0.361 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.085,-0.181,-0.017 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.082,-0.004 @@ -156,8 +156,8 @@ citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.013,-0.037,0.067 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.005,-0.036,0.037 citras-fm,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.044,-0.012,0.118 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.016,-0.106,0.039 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.006,-0.103,0.063 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.019,-0.018,0.05 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.204,0.346 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.099,-0.179,-0.036 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.055,-0.128,-0.0 @@ -172,8 +172,8 @@ FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.014,-0.072,0.035 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.275,0.7,-0.008,-0.041,0.017 FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,0.001,0.068 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.03,-0.131,0.037 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.02,-0.131,0.07 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.006,-0.068,0.053 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.207,0.312 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.09,-0.169,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.046,-0.091,-0.006 @@ -188,8 +188,8 @@ Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.005,-0.039,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.725,0.008,-0.017,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.039,-0.003,0.099 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.022,-0.114,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.012,-0.117,0.07 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.014,-0.028,0.046 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.207,0.334 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.241,-0.055 Sundial-Base,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.089,-0.194,-0.02 @@ -204,9 +204,25 @@ Sundial-Base,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.046,-0.133,0.012 Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.073,-0.001 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.041,-0.11,0.003 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.063,-0.191,0.021 Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.053,-0.179,0.041 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.026,-0.134,0.044 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.197,0.268 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.067,-0.119,-0.019 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.024,-0.068,0.038 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.005,-0.05,0.091 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.011,-0.064,0.068 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.007,-0.057,0.052 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.018,-0.031,0.088 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.027,-0.017,0.095 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.02,-0.028,0.091 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.006,-0.05,0.088 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.016,-0.041,0.096 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.029,-0.038,0.115 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.021,-0.037,0.102 +TS-ICL,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.06,-0.022,0.161 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.01,-0.041,0.067 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.2,0.373 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.078,-0.171,-0.012 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.034,-0.107,0.041 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.004,-0.085,0.094 @@ -220,25 +236,9 @@ TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.006,-0.068,0.094 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.02,-0.075,0.116 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.012,-0.075,0.105 TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.05,-0.043,0.152 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.01,-0.072,0.04 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.026,-0.065,0.118 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.271,0.187,0.362 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.106,-0.194,-0.033 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.061,-0.099,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.031,-0.062,0.002 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.048,-0.075,-0.023 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.043,-0.158,0.048 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.051,0.015 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.009,-0.044,0.026 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.016,-0.048,0.016 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.03,-0.055,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.02,-0.053,0.018 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.006,-0.056,0.064 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.014,-0.048,0.027 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.025,-0.046,0.118 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.026,-0.134,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.179,0.344 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.668,-0.342 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.621,-0.297 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.541,-0.272 @@ -252,6 +252,6 @@ Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.362,-0.529,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.453,-0.261 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.501,-0.261 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.366,-0.246 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.596,-0.25 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.371,-0.568,-0.23 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.524,-0.217 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv index c6bb55bd8ff2fc1fea2b26a48344fb8100cd409e..7a216a7b45f79c8f6d0516c81f111feb4074f5f4 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.048,0.004,0.101 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.07,0.01,0.142 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,0.008,0.13 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,0.006,0.131 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.092,0.038,0.15 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.037,0.147 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.086,0.016,0.17 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.077,0.019,0.148 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.097,0.035,0.164 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.033,0.151 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.048,0.167 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.116,0.045,0.185 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.026,0.172 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.101,0.032,0.173 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.335,0.481 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.051,-0.112,-0.004 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.051,-0.112,-0.004 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.008,0.056 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.016,-0.013,0.044 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.013,-0.063,0.079 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.017,0.073 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.044,0.017,0.072 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.017,0.073 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.013,-0.063,0.079 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.039,0.004,0.08 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.004,0.063 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.019,0.083 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.04,0.007,0.073 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.023,-0.044,0.063 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.06,0.014,0.108 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.071,0.035,0.103 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.046,-0.04,0.121 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.055,0.023,0.092 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.31,0.448 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.076,-0.166,-0.01 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.048,0.004,0.101 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.07,0.01,0.142 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,0.008,0.13 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.037,0.147 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.092,0.038,0.15 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,0.006,0.131 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.086,0.016,0.17 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.077,0.019,0.148 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.097,0.035,0.164 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.033,0.151 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.07,0.024,0.114 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.048,0.167 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.116,0.045,0.185 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.101,0.032,0.173 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.335,0.481 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.059,0.007 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.076,-0.166,-0.01 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.008,-0.026,0.008 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.6,0.9,-0.011,-0.117,0.061 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.023,-0.007,0.056 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.021,-0.011,0.053 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.023,-0.007,0.056 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.6,0.9,-0.011,-0.117,0.061 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.017,-0.005,0.044 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.007,-0.014,0.029 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.029,-0.007,0.066 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,0.0,0.036 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.0,-0.094,0.053 TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.037,0.006,0.076 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.01,0.086 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.023,-0.093,0.113 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.033,-0.001,0.06 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.297,0.424 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.149,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.016,-0.046,0.013 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.149,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.008,-0.008,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.107,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,0.006,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.029,0.003,0.064 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,0.006,0.066 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.107,0.072 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.0,0.056 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.002,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.036,0.006,0.075 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.025,0.005,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.008,-0.078,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.045,0.011,0.09 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.056,0.022,0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.031,-0.073,0.119 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,0.011,0.068 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.435 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.065,-0.151,-0.006 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.013,-0.086,0.059 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.4,0.01,-0.065,0.104 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.078,0.096 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.033,-0.048,0.119 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.032,-0.048,0.119 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.027,-0.046,0.114 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.018,-0.071,0.11 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.039,-0.048,0.126 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.045,0.117 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.047,-0.022,0.129 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.058,-0.029,0.15 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.033,-0.018,0.097 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.043,-0.052,0.138 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.295,0.443 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.101,-0.176,-0.039 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.079,-0.018 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.023,-0.059,0.007 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.07,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.034,-0.135,0.045 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.002,-0.011,0.008 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.007,-0.048,0.037 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.016,-0.057,0.017 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.006,-0.011,0.026 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.006,-0.048,0.031 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.015,-0.035,0.068 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.026,0.005,0.046 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.0,-0.107,0.096 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.01,-0.025,0.043 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.342,0.266,0.42 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.173,-0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.046,-0.077,-0.017 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.173,-0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.056,0.011 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.03,-0.069,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.033,-0.135,0.046 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.002,-0.008,0.011 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.002,-0.008,0.011 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.033,-0.135,0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.045,0.041 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.014,-0.053,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.008,-0.012,0.031 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.004,-0.044,0.032 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.022,-0.099,0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.016,-0.03,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.028,0.004,0.051 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.002,-0.104,0.099 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.012,-0.022,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.267,0.423 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.094,-0.205,-0.016 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.079,-0.018 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.101,-0.176,-0.039 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.023,-0.059,0.007 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.07,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.002,-0.011,0.008 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.034,-0.135,0.045 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.007,-0.048,0.037 +Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.016,-0.057,0.017 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.006,-0.011,0.026 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.006,-0.048,0.031 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.024,-0.102,0.021 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.015,-0.035,0.068 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.026,0.005,0.046 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.01,-0.025,0.043 +Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.342,0.266,0.42 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.013,-0.086,0.059 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.065,-0.151,-0.006 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.4,0.01,-0.065,0.104 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.078,0.096 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.032,-0.048,0.119 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.033,-0.048,0.119 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.027,-0.046,0.114 +TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.018,-0.071,0.11 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.039,-0.048,0.126 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.045,0.117 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.01,-0.048,0.056 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.047,-0.022,0.129 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.058,-0.029,0.15 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.043,-0.052,0.138 +TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.295,0.443 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.041,-0.086,-0.004 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.094,-0.205,-0.016 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.017,-0.046,0.005 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.025,-0.059,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.028,-0.129,0.044 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.006,-0.038,0.046 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.043,0.043 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.006,-0.038,0.046 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.028,-0.129,0.044 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.044,0.016 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.012,-0.027,0.052 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.001,-0.039,0.03 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.017,-0.113,0.042 citras-fm,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.021,-0.03,0.072 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.032,-0.007,0.072 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.007,-0.105,0.095 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.016,-0.024,0.047 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.285,0.421 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.084,-0.174,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.031,-0.067,0.004 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.084,-0.174,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.007,-0.03,0.014 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.035,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.124,0.066 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.016,-0.018,0.054 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.014,-0.016,0.051 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.016,-0.018,0.054 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.124,0.066 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.016,0.042 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.022,-0.018,0.062 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.3,0.6,0.01,-0.007,0.033 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.008,-0.096,0.047 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.03,-0.006,0.08 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.041,0.003,0.082 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.016,-0.098,0.11 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.026,-0.003,0.051 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.286,0.426 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.108,-0.195,-0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.09,-0.019 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.108,-0.195,-0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.03,-0.07,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.038,-0.081,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.145,0.046 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.006,-0.027,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.008,-0.032,0.012 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.006,-0.027,0.011 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.145,0.046 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.013,-0.055,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.022,-0.066,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.012,-0.06,0.032 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.03,-0.115,0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.049,0.07 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.02,0.005,0.036 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.751,-0.006,-0.116,0.09 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.004,-0.033,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.338,0.258,0.42 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.178,-0.034 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.042,-0.078,-0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.178,-0.034 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.018,-0.037,-0.0 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.026,-0.048,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.028,-0.133,0.043 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.006,-0.031,0.046 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.004,-0.033,0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.006,-0.031,0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.028,-0.133,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.001,-0.031,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.4,0.7,-0.01,-0.034,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.012,-0.033,0.057 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.018,-0.11,0.037 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.02,-0.006,0.054 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.032,-0.016,0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.006,-0.107,0.097 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.016,-0.025,0.048 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.288,0.41 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.117,-0.201,-0.05 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.024,-0.067,0.042 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.076,-0.129,-0.024 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.0,-0.056,0.086 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.008,-0.063,0.072 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.022,-0.023,0.09 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.023,-0.021,0.092 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.01,-0.059,0.046 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.017,-0.044,0.102 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.008,-0.049,0.087 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.029,-0.023,0.103 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.018,-0.038,0.099 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.037,-0.026,0.121 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.049,-0.006,0.126 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.033,-0.023,0.117 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.277,0.453 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.063,-0.121,-0.015 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.117,-0.201,-0.05 FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.083,-0.006 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.047,-0.099,-0.011 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.05,-0.148,0.022 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.015,-0.073,0.034 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.016,-0.076,0.03 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.015,-0.073,0.034 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.05,-0.148,0.022 FlowState,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.021,-0.077,0.029 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.031,-0.087,0.006 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.076,0.047 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.021,-0.057,0.006 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.039,-0.138,0.025 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.012,-0.061,0.067 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.015,-0.128,0.081 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.005,-0.077,0.043 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.279,0.386 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.131,-0.227,-0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.076,-0.114,-0.037 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.131,-0.227,-0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.094,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.104,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.062,-0.176,0.028 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.027,-0.048,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.054,-0.004 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.027,-0.048,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.062,-0.176,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.034,-0.078,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.043,-0.09,-0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.021,-0.037,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.033,-0.083,0.016 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.051,-0.144,0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.012,-0.072,0.057 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.027,-0.141,0.077 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.017,-0.046,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.324,0.244,0.408 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.208,-0.027 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.048,-0.138,0.039 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.024,-0.128,0.085 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.032,-0.135,0.068 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.034,-0.108,0.017 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.0,-0.106,0.097 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.002,-0.11,0.094 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.007,-0.105,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.016,-0.123,0.089 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.249,0.65,0.006,-0.098,0.104 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.006,-0.108,0.097 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.014,-0.088,0.114 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.026,-0.084,0.123 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.099,0.12 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.342,0.255,0.435 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.112,-0.21,-0.033 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.058,-0.101,-0.023 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.112,-0.21,-0.033 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.034,-0.064,0.001 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.073,-0.011 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.045,-0.161,0.049 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.01,-0.045,0.024 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.012,-0.047,0.021 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.01,-0.045,0.024 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.045,-0.161,0.049 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.017,-0.05,0.023 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.026,-0.053,0.003 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.004,-0.038,0.032 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.016,-0.051,0.025 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.034,-0.132,0.022 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.005,-0.045,0.072 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.016,-0.007,0.044 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.136,0.09 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.262,0.419 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.927,-0.503 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.81,-0.449 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.927,-0.503 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.422 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.771,-0.426 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.795,-0.418 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.52,-0.725,-0.363 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.732,-0.364 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.52,-0.725,-0.363 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.795,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.728,-0.398 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.741,-0.401 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.511,-0.725,-0.347 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.695,-0.404 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.828,-0.384 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.498,-0.63,-0.387 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.48,-0.69,-0.322 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.52,-0.769,-0.343 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.722,-0.356 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv index ff5f83bad9ff36cd9e96fadb54222a1d81e32527..c334dcebe5ca314cf22dc42b14473b5af9ed6d73 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,0.028,0.128 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.063,0.007,0.129 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.053,0.01,0.104 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,0.028,0.128 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.067,0.006,0.137 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,0.027,0.13 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.049,0.003,0.1 @@ -10,15 +10,31 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,0.019,0.136 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.076,0.014,0.145 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.083,0.023,0.15 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.053,0.013,0.094 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.046,0.168 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.12,0.051,0.188 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.046,0.168 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.1,0.038,0.166 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.132,0.057,0.22 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.029,0.118 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.269,0.434 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.081,-0.146,-0.028 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.013,-0.053,0.026 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.024,-0.063,0.015 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.044,0.026 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.001,-0.01,0.012 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.028,-0.122,0.046 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.001,-0.021,0.019 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.001,-0.041,0.039 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.031,0.051 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.023,-0.114,0.049 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.049,-0.013,0.112 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.015,0.075 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.027,-0.007,0.055 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.002,-0.09,0.053 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.294,0.21,0.382 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.067,-0.148,-0.007 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.027,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.047,0.022 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.027,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.014,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.014,-0.022,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.015,-0.111,0.061 @@ -26,15 +42,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.013,-0.022,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.021,0.001,0.041 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.112,0.061 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.044,0.014,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.925,0.061,0.014,0.124 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.044,0.014,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.003,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.161 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.011,-0.079,0.063 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.233,0.39 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.056,-0.116,-0.01 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.023,-0.015,0.059 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.023,0.045 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.023,-0.015,0.059 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.45,0.2,0.65,0.015,-0.019,0.054 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.024,-0.014,0.061 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.079,0.055 @@ -42,31 +58,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.024,-0.017,0.065 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.014,0.063 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.005,0.068 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.0,-0.073,0.056 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.054,0.009,0.098 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.071,0.009,0.136 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.054,0.009,0.098 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.01,0.088 -TiRex-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.084,0.011,0.174 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.021,-0.047,0.066 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.311,0.239,0.397 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.081,-0.146,-0.028 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.013,-0.053,0.026 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.024,-0.063,0.015 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.044,0.026 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.001,-0.01,0.012 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.028,-0.122,0.046 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.001,-0.021,0.019 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.001,-0.041,0.039 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.031,0.051 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.023,-0.114,0.049 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.015,0.075 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.049,-0.013,0.112 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.027,-0.007,0.055 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.062,-0.015,0.149 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.294,0.21,0.382 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.072,-0.159,-0.006 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.027,0.042 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.023,0.014 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.015,-0.057,0.019 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.027,0.042 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.01,-0.022,0.044 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.019,-0.127,0.064 @@ -74,15 +74,15 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.009,-0.021,0.046 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.009,-0.01,0.028 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.017,-0.007,0.043 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.015,-0.127,0.062 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.04,0.005,0.087 TiRex,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,0.004,0.129 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.04,0.005,0.087 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,0.01,0.065 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.07,-0.003,0.166 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.007,-0.09,0.06 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.223,0.394 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.083,-0.149,-0.028 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.001,-0.012,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.014,-0.056,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.025,-0.065,0.014 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.001,-0.012,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.01,-0.046,0.022 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.029,-0.129,0.048 @@ -90,15 +90,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.001,-0.016,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.046,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.007,-0.034,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.025,-0.116,0.049 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,-0.019,0.078 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.047,-0.019,0.115 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,-0.019,0.078 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.025,-0.001,0.049 -Toto-2.0-1B,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.061,-0.021,0.155 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.003,-0.091,0.05 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.293,0.207,0.385 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.111,-0.003 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.027,-0.049,0.109 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.015,-0.065,0.1 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.058,0.074 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.027,-0.049,0.109 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.019,-0.069,0.113 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.029,-0.05,0.115 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -106,15 +106,15 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.028,-0.061,0.12 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.054,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.036,-0.038,0.122 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.004,-0.042,0.051 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.058,0.0,0.138 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.074,0.01,0.152 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.058,0.0,0.138 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.053,-0.041,0.147 -TabPFN-TS-3,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.087,0.013,0.17 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.025,-0.022,0.07 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.249,0.384 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.082,-0.157,-0.02 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.001,-0.019,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.013,-0.063,0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.07,0.017 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.001,-0.019,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.009,-0.048,0.02 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.001,-0.013,0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.029,-0.137,0.057 @@ -122,15 +122,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.0,-0.05,0.039 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.008,-0.039,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.126,0.055 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,-0.025,0.087 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.048,-0.026,0.126 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,-0.025,0.087 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.026,0.009,0.044 -Toto-2.0-313m,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.061,-0.032,0.166 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.003,-0.094,0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.294,0.201,0.39 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.082,-0.17,-0.014 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.001,-0.041,0.039 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.024,-0.067,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.001,-0.041,0.039 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.009,-0.029,0.009 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.039,0.044 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.029,-0.136,0.051 @@ -138,15 +138,15 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.0,-0.04,0.047 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.008,-0.007,0.024 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.134,0.054 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.031,0.001,0.07 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.048,0.001,0.113 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.031,0.001,0.07 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.026,-0.011,0.07 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.061,-0.007,0.152 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.099,0.054 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.225,0.379 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.091,-0.177,-0.024 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.054,0.03 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.022,-0.043,-0.001 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.073,0.005 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.054,0.03 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.045,0.007 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.008,-0.051,0.033 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.037,-0.139,0.037 @@ -154,15 +154,15 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.008,-0.053,0.037 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.008,-0.025,0.007 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.033,-0.136,0.044 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.299,0.75,0.023,-0.004,0.058 citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.04,-0.005,0.101 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.299,0.75,0.023,-0.004,0.058 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.018,-0.024,0.059 -citras-fm,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.016,0.139 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.011,-0.101,0.042 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.221,0.367 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.056,-0.103,-0.014 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.023,-0.051,0.102 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.01,-0.065,0.101 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.0,-0.059,0.068 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.023,-0.051,0.102 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.014,-0.066,0.112 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.024,-0.052,0.104 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.004,-0.054,0.04 @@ -170,31 +170,15 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.058,0.112 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.057,0.118 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.032,-0.046,0.12 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.027,0.138 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.07,-0.019,0.161 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.027,0.138 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.049,-0.036,0.142 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.083,-0.016,0.187 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.021,-0.032,0.069 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.311,0.219,0.402 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.202,-0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.046,-0.091,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.057,-0.109,-0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.082,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.042,-0.096,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.032,-0.085,0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.062,-0.16,-0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.032,-0.095,0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.032,-0.075,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.701,-0.024,-0.062,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.161,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.017,-0.012,0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.069,0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.031,-0.019,0.097 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.212,0.338 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.136,-0.231,-0.054 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.051,-0.126,0.013 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.45,-0.065,-0.141,-0.014 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.076,-0.157,-0.009 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.051,-0.126,0.013 FlowState,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.148,-0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.05,-0.13,0.018 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.08,-0.179,-0.01 @@ -202,15 +186,31 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.05,-0.144,0.025 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.127,-0.001 FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.042,-0.113,0.005 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.076,-0.192,0.019 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.056,0.012 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.056,0.012 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.023,-0.125,0.05 -FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.014,-0.02,0.051 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.053,-0.163,0.024 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.204,0.314 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.202,-0.048 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.082,0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.046,-0.091,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.057,-0.109,-0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.042,-0.096,-0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.032,-0.085,0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.062,-0.16,-0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.032,-0.095,0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.032,-0.075,-0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.701,-0.024,-0.062,0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.161,0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.017,-0.012,0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.069,0.047 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.035,-0.132,0.023 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.212,0.338 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.111,-0.2,-0.04 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.027,-0.059,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.085,-0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.052,-0.097,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.027,-0.059,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.07,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.026,-0.051,0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.056,-0.172,0.039 @@ -218,31 +218,31 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.027,-0.046,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.027,-0.075,0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.018,-0.063,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.052,-0.165,0.034 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.05,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.023,-0.052,0.111 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.05,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.036,-0.059,0.15 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.029,-0.123,0.03 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.275,0.183,0.377 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.153,-0.283,-0.06 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.08,-0.192,-0.012 -Sundial-Base,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.091,-0.21,-0.011 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.066,-0.175,0.015 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.075,-0.2,0.003 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.065,-0.184,0.021 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.096,-0.204,-0.013 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.065,-0.199,0.031 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.065,-0.179,0.007 -Sundial-Base,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.162,0.015 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.091,-0.23,0.016 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.032,-0.107,0.019 -Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.014,-0.054,0.02 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.038,-0.177,0.056 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.248,0.204,0.292 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.079,-0.134,-0.03 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.002,-0.056,0.083 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.011,-0.068,0.073 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.022,-0.07,0.045 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.007,-0.064,0.083 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.003,-0.053,0.083 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.026,-0.075,0.022 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.003,-0.057,0.086 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.057,0.09 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.011,-0.043,0.092 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.021,-0.074,0.031 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.051,-0.025,0.14 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.034,-0.024,0.117 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.029,-0.031,0.11 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.214,0.39 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.768,-0.369 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.417,-0.618,-0.266 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.641,-0.304 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.451,-0.658,-0.313 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.417,-0.618,-0.266 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.649,-0.287 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.415,-0.627,-0.26 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.457,-0.623,-0.332 @@ -250,8 +250,8 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.416,-0.64,-0.252 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.61,-0.29 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.579,-0.284 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.45,-0.673,-0.281 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.51,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.348,-0.457,-0.257 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.51,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.379,-0.604,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.329,-0.412,-0.256 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.64,-0.273 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv index 66386d170190dd72ced641fcbef227cb7d2b664d..7494a2047a0029ffd8ba52aa8cae47a11be7782c 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.042,0.17 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.102,0.035,0.174 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,0.028,0.12 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.057,0.197 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.107,0.035,0.186 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.076,0.03,0.124 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.371,0.518 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.074,-0.161,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.039,0.014,0.065 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.036,-0.003,0.076 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.003,-0.107,0.086 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.119 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.041,0.003,0.076 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.007,-0.083,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.34,0.474 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.062,-0.125,-0.015 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.011,-0.024,0.046 @@ -45,7 +45,7 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.049,0.009,0.087 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.046,0.004,0.089 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.014,-0.068,0.083 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.075,0.017,0.134 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.052,0.01,0.096 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.018,-0.052,0.063 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.342,0.483 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.167,-0.006 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 @@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,0.007,0.075 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.034,0.007,0.063 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.001,-0.119,0.089 TiRex,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.063,0.012,0.127 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.04,0.015,0.062 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.006,-0.09,0.06 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.332,0.479 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.085,-0.155,-0.03 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.011,-0.049,0.026 @@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.028,-0.017,0.071 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.025,-0.008,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.008,-0.103,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.054,-0.003,0.117 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.031,-0.01,0.071 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.901,-0.003,-0.089,0.051 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.401,0.318,0.478 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.085,-0.159,-0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.051,0.026 @@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.018,0.075 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.599,0.95,0.026,0.001,0.05 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.007,-0.11,0.079 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,-0.008,0.121 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.032,-0.006,0.069 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.003,-0.09,0.052 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.401,0.316,0.476 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.048,-0.105,-0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.024,-0.054,0.112 @@ -109,7 +109,7 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.062,-0.0,0.147 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.059,-0.037,0.153 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.027,-0.026,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.022,0.162 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.065,-0.027,0.162 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.031,-0.013,0.077 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.351,0.489 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.17,-0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.012,-0.064,0.029 @@ -125,7 +125,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.027,-0.03,0.081 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.024,0.008,0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.009,-0.119,0.083 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.053,-0.022,0.131 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.029,-0.005,0.063 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.005,-0.1,0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.4,0.309,0.483 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.179,-0.017 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 @@ -141,7 +141,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.701,0.026,-0.0,0.057 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.023,-0.014,0.062 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.01,-0.126,0.08 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.052,0.007,0.112 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.003,0.056 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.006,-0.102,0.051 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.326,0.47 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.095,-0.186,-0.022 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.401,-0.02,-0.041,-0.001 @@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.02,-0.004,0.05 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.017,-0.023,0.056 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.017,-0.135,0.074 citras-fm,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.046,0.0,0.106 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.022,-0.007,0.05 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.013,-0.108,0.041 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.324,0.466 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.205,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.04,-0.07,-0.015 @@ -173,7 +173,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.003,-0.059,0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.037,-0.149,0.056 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.027,-0.006,0.066 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.003,-0.052,0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.033,-0.125,0.022 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.321,0.445 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.114,-0.211,-0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.037,-0.082,0.003 @@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.003,-0.05,0.056 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.034,-0.156,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.029,-0.043,0.115 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.006,-0.017,0.026 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.03,-0.129,0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.385,0.298,0.472 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.137,-0.029 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.003,-0.094,0.097 @@ -205,7 +205,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.036,-0.059,0.129 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.033,-0.07,0.135 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.061,-0.037,0.157 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.039,-0.064,0.147 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.004,-0.067,0.062 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.405,0.315,0.487 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.246,-0.061 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.069,-0.135,-0.023 @@ -221,24 +221,24 @@ FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.027,-0.071,0.006 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.03,-0.13,0.041 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.065,-0.186,0.036 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.75,-0.024,-0.123,0.041 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.061,-0.163,0.012 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.31,0.422 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.12,-0.228,-0.036 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.043,-0.083,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.055,-0.107,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.042,-0.067,-0.015 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.032,-0.076,0.01 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.033,-0.074,0.006 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.069,-0.193,0.026 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.03,-0.067,0.005 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.06,0.003 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.023,-0.052,0.007 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.003,-0.047,0.05 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.006,-0.027,0.016 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.04,-0.172,0.06 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.675,0.024,-0.043,0.11 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.296,0.466 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.141,-0.031 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.007,-0.066,0.077 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.019,-0.068,0.049 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.006,-0.064,0.082 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.099,0.45,0.003,-0.053,0.082 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.003,-0.055,0.083 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.032,-0.084,0.013 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.005,-0.06,0.091 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.006,-0.054,0.092 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.012,-0.043,0.098 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.032,-0.022,0.111 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.029,-0.035,0.114 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.004,-0.066,0.063 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.057,-0.012,0.14 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.322,0.487 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.811,-1.075,-0.59 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-0.901,-0.515 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.705,-0.934,-0.519 @@ -253,5 +253,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.801,-0.472 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.626,-0.893,-0.424 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.681,-0.951,-0.46 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.578,-0.73,-0.448 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.871,-0.42 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-0.951,-0.474 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 444974e392eaa2758a41a10a510092734c3682e0..2f3d5e0143a2c1f95592c0241ecaf2eab8bdc185 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.0909090909091,43.274593608690935,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,81.16883116883116,38.012072708776955,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.54545454545455,37.79408298410066,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,77.59740259740259,37.57457322963014,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,76.2987012987013,41.08167576363031,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.29220779220779,39.98338380952686,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,68.83116883116884,36.99275058174338,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.58441558441558,35.239492739103106,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,65.58441558441558,32.88980053857977,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,63.961038961038966,33.495947925536605,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.36363636363637,36.74297271088556,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.7922077922078,32.908248043370314,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -FlowState,57.305194805194795,31.79411028713204,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.1948051948052,31.36627321795874,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,53.246753246753244,30.367855148176616,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.5974025974026,31.01250974524118,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,52.5974025974026,33.222787882390605,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -TFT,52.02922077922077,31.384747879961495,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,46.34740259740259,29.506456740093434,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,45.45454545454545,29.21300351912992,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,44.15584415584415,26.76214381001828,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 -LightGBM,40.259740259740255,25.932640406312956,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,24.350649350649352,10.456399439111886,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,21.59090909090909,6.160851350393271,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,17.532467532467532,3.998984722231047,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.071428571428577,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.766233766233764,-42.82202736849552,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,5.357142857142857,-40.06899272444669,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.032467532467533,-48.09174161780307,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.38557993730409,43.274593608690935,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.78056426332287,38.012072708776955,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,78.52664576802508,37.79408298410066,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,77.89968652037619,40.3055564145123,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.48902821316615,37.57457322963014,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.54858934169279,41.08167576363031,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,69.43573667711598,39.98338380952686,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,67.24137931034485,36.99275058174338,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.42006269592477,35.239492739103106,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.1065830721003,32.88980053857977,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,62.539184952978054,33.495947925536605,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.18808777429467,36.74297271088556,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,56.896551724137936,32.908248043370314,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +FlowState,55.79937304075234,31.79411028713204,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,53.60501567398119,31.36627321795874,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.88087774294671,30.367855148176616,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,51.724137931034484,33.222787882390605,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.56739811912225,31.01250974524118,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 +TFT,51.33228840125392,31.384747879961495,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,45.53291536050156,29.506456740093434,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,44.20062695924766,29.21300351912992,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,43.260188087774296,26.76214381001828,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +LightGBM,39.02821316614419,25.932640406312956,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,23.510971786833856,10.456399439111886,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,21.003134796238243,6.160851350393271,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,16.927899686520377,3.998984722231047,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.673981191222575,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.463949843260187,-42.82202736849552,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,5.172413793103448,-40.06899272444669,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.858934169278998,-48.09174161780307,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 2ef24c9d654e6641da2794daf4fba6eea5126500..255ed76cb3bddb5efc544a9bca35b5b1c5c707ae 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,86.03896103896105,54.953225710108875,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,83.6038961038961,50.48745378167907,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,82.62987012987011,50.428583049463136,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,80.35714285714285,53.101501553919526,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,79.54545454545456,50.15823868733569,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,73.37662337662339,52.229531070132175,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,69.48051948051948,48.27005882130029,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,69.31818181818183,46.668743596982175,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,66.55844155844156,48.75256757569677,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.25974025974025,46.31983629666182,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.47402597402596,48.743593703307816,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,58.44155844155844,45.95860067004889,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -FlowState,57.7922077922078,44.453296546133025,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,55.84415584415585,44.81296402028422,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 -TFT,55.1948051948052,43.30535103216901,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.87012987012987,44.43807099079537,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,53.08441558441559,43.86628908183108,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,49.350649350649356,40.39134574673249,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,48.13311688311689,39.97944767271597,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Sundial-Base,45.45454545454545,42.152213930229635,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,32.792207792207805,30.253084957838638,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,29.707792207792217,27.020920595575927,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,25.811688311688307,16.197587961183302,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,21.915584415584416,10.597669802300436,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.691558441558442,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,10.551948051948052,-18.399683360301424,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,8.279220779220777,-115.54487654562027,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Naive,6.331168831168831,-88.45846014959294,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.1103896103896105,-93.63271001234882,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.57993730407524,54.953225710108875,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,82.44514106583073,50.48745378167907,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,81.50470219435736,50.428583049463136,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,79.62382445141063,53.101501553919526,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,78.36990595611286,52.262680445225705,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,78.36990595611286,50.15823868733569,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,72.5705329153605,52.229531070132175,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,68.3385579937304,48.27005882130029,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.86833855799374,46.668743596982175,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,64.89028213166145,48.75256757569677,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.79310344827588,46.31983629666182,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.06896551724138,48.743593703307816,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,57.36677115987461,45.95860067004889,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +FlowState,56.26959247648904,44.453296546133025,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,55.01567398119123,44.81296402028422,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 +TFT,54.38871473354233,43.30535103216901,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,53.29153605015675,44.43807099079537,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.724137931034484,43.86628908183108,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,48.432601880877755,40.39134574673249,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,46.9435736677116,39.97944767271597,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +Sundial-Base,44.20062695924766,42.152213930229635,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,31.661442006269603,30.253084957838638,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,28.68338557993731,27.020920595575927,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,24.921630094043884,16.197587961183302,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,21.15987460815047,10.597669802300436,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.184952978056426,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,10.18808777429467,-18.399683360301424,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,7.993730407523509,-115.54487654562027,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.112852664576802,-88.45846014959294,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.0376175548589344,-93.63271001234882,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 0a8c6f2ae4e69137375b3f387f937cbedd6192b9..42df2f16ed0549fa013253c9bb8343b54d72c815 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,82.62987012987013,48.442211767640465,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,81.4935064935065,44.0392065971128,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,80.51948051948054,43.99123172966048,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,79.54545454545453,43.62851836728188,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.27272727272727,46.85808081772759,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,72.07792207792208,45.702991488018526,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.53246753246755,41.333170223103686,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,66.23376623376623,42.21701827419201,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.012987012987,42.611870287147646,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,61.20129870129869,38.84505918959146,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TiRex,60.55194805194806,38.169900254169384,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.68181818181819,37.12643024774067,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.68181818181818,36.99654984675513,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -FlowState,54.7077922077922,37.56998412861054,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TFT,53.327922077922075,34.60383117292584,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.75974025974026,37.34153531671359,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,50.97402597402597,36.49964295125293,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,49.188311688311686,37.11101339158358,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,47.97077922077923,35.56569107234838,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,47.402597402597415,33.348414178690675,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 -CatBoost,43.831168831168824,33.472768156935786,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,41.07142857142856,30.689071842972925,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,25.487012987012996,14.36807817022936,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,18.344155844155846,3.8862087407703916,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,16.72077922077922,8.112535247477037,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.285714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.662337662337661,-23.683182452741146,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,10.38961038961039,-40.71283486742574,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Drift,8.44155844155844,-28.294151790850574,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.13166144200626,48.442211767640465,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.09404388714734,44.0392065971128,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,79.46708463949842,46.36907361998035,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,79.31034482758622,43.99123172966048,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,78.52664576802508,43.62851836728188,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,76.3322884012539,46.85808081772759,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,71.00313479623826,45.702991488018526,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.61442006269593,41.333170223103686,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,64.57680250783697,42.21701827419201,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.658307210031346,42.611870287147646,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,59.71786833855799,38.84505918959146,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TiRex,59.09090909090909,38.169900254169384,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.545454545454554,37.12643024774067,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.2319749216301,36.99654984675513,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +FlowState,53.29153605015675,37.56998412861054,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TFT,52.429467084639505,34.60383117292584,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.56739811912225,37.34153531671359,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.0,36.49964295125293,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,47.96238244514106,37.11101339158358,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,47.10031347962383,35.56569107234838,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,46.394984326018815,33.348414178690675,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +CatBoost,42.47648902821316,33.472768156935786,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,39.81191222570532,30.689071842972925,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,24.60815047021944,14.36807817022936,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,17.711598746081506,3.8862087407703916,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,16.144200626959247,8.112535247477037,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.793103448275861,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.225705329153604,-23.683182452741146,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,10.031347962382444,-40.71283486742574,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Drift,8.150470219435736,-28.294151790850574,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index bb461ad2ed82aae2264b2d1fc4a6ebf45de5d604..7a56824fff7cf2b5ea6af35a159c47c9b384b419 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.06493506493506,59.682309132284814,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,84.90259740259741,56.12844010384532,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,83.92857142857143,56.2395222989352,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,81.16883116883116,55.784603227927796,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,80.03246753246754,58.30105761094302,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,76.62337662337661,57.72027179463593,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,69.80519480519479,53.81760956814947,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,66.3961038961039,51.65057901868925,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,65.42207792207792,53.815809519798606,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,63.14935064935065,51.63105123083261,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.98701298701299,53.906369718314394,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,57.62987012987014,50.15888836772644,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TFT,56.81818181818182,46.76309293458979,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,56.81818181818181,50.324808783788264,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,54.7077922077922,50.034469733126286,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.24675324675325,49.586247329778175,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.75974025974026,50.06921700093749,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,50.56818181818182,46.321243230452545,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 -PatchTST,49.837662337662344,46.391259833433686,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.31818181818182,46.24435265048212,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,32.95454545454546,32.950990580941486,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,32.14285714285715,35.643842752802136,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,23.214285714285715,17.221454748984954,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,22.07792207792208,12.55153817097112,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.853896103896105,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,10.714285714285714,-14.943560774920094,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,8.116883116883116,-129.66660306044423,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Naive,6.8181818181818175,-74.36309704922827,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.922077922077922,-79.22788676890997,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,84.63949843260188,59.682309132284814,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,83.5423197492163,56.12844010384532,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,82.60188087774296,56.2395222989352,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,80.87774294670848,57.9032728549639,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,79.9373040752351,55.784603227927796,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,78.99686520376174,58.30105761094302,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,75.86206896551722,57.72027179463593,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,68.65203761755487,53.81760956814947,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.89028213166144,51.65057901868925,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,63.63636363636363,53.815809519798606,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.59874608150469,53.906369718314394,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,61.44200626959248,51.63105123083261,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +FlowState,56.112852664576806,50.15888836772644,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TFT,55.64263322884012,46.76309293458979,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,55.4858934169279,50.324808783788264,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,53.605015673981185,50.034469733126286,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.724137931034484,49.586247329778175,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.09717868338558,50.06921700093749,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,49.294670846394986,46.321243230452545,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +PatchTST,48.74608150470219,46.391259833433686,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.103448275862064,46.24435265048212,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,31.818181818181824,32.950990580941486,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,31.0344827586207,35.643842752802136,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,22.413793103448278,17.221454748984954,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,21.316614420062695,12.55153817097112,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.341692789968652,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,10.344827586206897,-14.943560774920094,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,7.836990595611285,-129.66660306044423,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.583072100313479,-74.36309704922827,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.8213166144200623,-79.22788676890997,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv index 80f3cb30c257549c585501cc363fa24a79117238..d984d44b7ef74bca1a1d8caff2f9a044b5052509 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.085,-0.007,0.179 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.088,-0.001,0.182 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.636,0.409,0.819,0.05,0.016,0.085 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.091,-0.0,0.186 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.037,-0.006,0.087 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.055,-0.003,0.12 @@ -10,14 +11,15 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.124,0.045,0.204 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.155,0.074,0.232 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.147,0.067,0.222 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.103,0.054,0.151 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.168,0.094,0.235 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.155,0.078,0.231 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.168,0.094,0.235 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.242 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.258 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.348,0.515 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.093,-0.219,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.318,0.727,0.004,-0.004,0.011 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.038,-0.134,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.007,-0.002,0.015 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.052,-0.178,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.033,-0.202,0.109 @@ -26,14 +28,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.043,0.026,0.066 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.076,0.025,0.148 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.068,0.021,0.126 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.02,-0.12,0.13 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.091,0.042,0.15 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.076,0.046,0.112 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.091,0.042,0.15 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.097,0.041,0.176 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.11,0.049,0.179 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.38,0.276,0.493 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.097,-0.222,0.001 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.004,-0.012,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.042,-0.139,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.455,0.227,0.636,0.004,-0.005,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.056,-0.183,0.043 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.036,-0.199,0.108 @@ -42,14 +45,32 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.062 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.073,0.024,0.141 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.065,0.02,0.125 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.017,-0.121,0.126 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.088,0.041,0.146 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.073,0.045,0.105 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.088,0.041,0.146 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.094,0.04,0.171 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.107,0.044,0.179 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.378,0.275,0.49 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.364,0.181,0.591,-0.052,-0.092,-0.016 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.037,-0.051,0.119 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.04,-0.046,0.122 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.044,-0.045,0.129 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.013,-0.068,0.036 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.363,0.727,0.005,-0.07,0.077 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.053,0.01,0.088 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.078,0.003,0.152 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.111,0.046,0.176 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.102,0.037,0.166 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.056,-0.004,0.109 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.11,0.047,0.179 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.125,0.068,0.18 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.13,0.066,0.19 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.143,0.073,0.214 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.403,0.322,0.483 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.1,-0.228,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.007,-0.015,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.364,0.773,-0.004,-0.013,0.005 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.046,-0.149,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.06,-0.195,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.04,-0.211,0.101 @@ -58,14 +79,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.036,0.019,0.059 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.07,0.022,0.139 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.061,0.015,0.121 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.013,-0.132,0.123 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.085,0.035,0.143 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.682,0.955,0.07,0.042,0.104 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.085,0.035,0.143 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.09,0.035,0.17 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.103,0.043,0.175 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.376,0.273,0.488 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.039,-0.095,0.006 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.05,-0.051,0.151 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.053,-0.045,0.155 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.013,-0.038,0.063 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.056,-0.045,0.163 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.018,-0.054,0.09 @@ -74,14 +96,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.09,0.005,0.183 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.122,0.041,0.204 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.114,0.024,0.202 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.069,0.023,0.115 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.136,0.062,0.217 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.122,0.038,0.215 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.136,0.062,0.217 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.142,0.063,0.221 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.154,0.078,0.235 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.329,0.497 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.058,-0.136,0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.032,-0.122,0.168 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.035,-0.122,0.166 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.455,0.273,0.637,-0.005,-0.084,0.066 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.039,-0.112,0.174 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.019,-0.099,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -90,14 +113,15 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.073,-0.058,0.193 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.106,0.006,0.211 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.318,0.728,0.098,-0.011,0.204 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.051,0.006,0.093 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.12,0.022,0.222 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.105,-0.011,0.22 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.12,0.022,0.222 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.126,0.037,0.214 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.138,0.035,0.237 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.32,0.472 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.111,-0.166,-0.058 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.016,-0.104,0.061 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.013,-0.099,0.062 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.055,-0.097,-0.01 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.409,0.226,0.591,-0.009,-0.097,0.07 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.069,-0.134,-0.018 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.409,0.227,0.592,-0.05,-0.132,0.025 @@ -106,14 +130,15 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.027,-0.038,0.091 citras-fm,TiRex,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.061,0.011,0.119 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.053,-0.003,0.112 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.004,-0.061,0.058 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.076,0.026,0.126 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.061,0.003,0.124 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.076,0.026,0.126 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.082,0.039,0.131 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.095,0.045,0.151 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.292,0.452 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.142,-0.256,-0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.045,-0.071,-0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.041,-0.066,-0.024 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.085,-0.179,-0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.037,-0.063,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.099,-0.224,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.079,-0.24,0.055 @@ -122,14 +147,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.035,-0.004,0.089 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.026,-0.012,0.072 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.024,-0.158,0.078 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.051,0.009,0.094 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.035,0.013,0.06 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.051,0.009,0.094 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.056,0.011,0.118 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.07,0.019,0.13 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.352,0.254,0.455 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.183,-0.301,-0.08 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.083,-0.173,-0.026 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.079,-0.164,-0.025 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.124,-0.213,-0.048 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.075,-0.162,-0.022 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.139,-0.256,-0.042 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.118,-0.268,-0.006 @@ -138,14 +164,15 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.036,-0.097,0.004 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.009,-0.042,0.022 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.061,-0.19,0.033 -TiRex,FlowState,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.016,-0.016,0.047 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.455,0.864,-0.0,-0.055,0.036 +TiRex,FlowState,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.016,-0.016,0.047 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.022,-0.002,0.045 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.036,-0.009,0.097 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.253,0.409 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.172,-0.285,-0.072 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.073,-0.144,-0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.069,-0.143,-0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.114,-0.199,-0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.065,-0.137,-0.015 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.129,-0.254,-0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.455,0.272,0.682,-0.108,-0.256,0.011 @@ -154,14 +181,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.027,-0.078,0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.009,-0.023,0.041 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.051,-0.179,0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.025,-0.003,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.009,-0.036,0.044 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.025,-0.003,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.705,0.523,0.864,0.031,-0.006,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.045,-0.004,0.102 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.248,0.422 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.115,-0.178,-0.058 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.02,-0.15,0.107 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.017,-0.144,0.108 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.06,-0.123,0.004 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.013,-0.14,0.117 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.074,-0.13,-0.023 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.054,-0.102,-0.007 @@ -170,30 +198,15 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.023,-0.084,0.136 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.057,-0.034,0.159 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.049,-0.043,0.152 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.073,-0.011,0.167 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.057,-0.042,0.166 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.073,-0.011,0.167 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.078,0.001,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.092,0.001,0.187 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.367,0.283,0.452 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.202,-0.308,-0.104 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.1,-0.176,-0.044 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.096,-0.171,-0.043 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.093,-0.166,-0.037 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.158,-0.278,-0.066 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.136,-0.286,-0.023 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.083,-0.145,-0.026 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.053,-0.104,-0.009 -FlowState,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.016,-0.049,0.015 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.026,-0.054,0.003 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.078,-0.2,0.011 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.017,-0.059,0.018 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.34,0.705,0.006,-0.028,0.044 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.02,-0.035,0.089 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.318,0.228,0.405 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.183,-0.3,-0.085 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.082,-0.126,-0.048 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.079,-0.118,-0.048 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.124,-0.219,-0.05 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.318,-0.075,-0.116,-0.044 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.139,-0.273,-0.04 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.118,-0.282,0.011 @@ -202,14 +215,32 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.036,-0.063,-0.013 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.545,0.0,-0.037,0.052 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.009,-0.046,0.035 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.061,-0.199,0.04 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.016,-0.018,0.056 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.016,-0.018,0.056 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.022,-0.02,0.084 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.036,-0.015,0.099 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.236,0.432 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.202,-0.308,-0.104 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.1,-0.176,-0.044 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.096,-0.171,-0.043 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.143,-0.22,-0.073 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.093,-0.166,-0.037 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.158,-0.278,-0.066 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.136,-0.286,-0.023 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.083,-0.145,-0.026 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.053,-0.104,-0.009 +FlowState,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.016,-0.049,0.015 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.026,-0.054,0.003 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.078,-0.2,0.011 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.017,-0.059,0.018 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.34,0.705,0.006,-0.028,0.044 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.02,-0.035,0.089 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.318,0.228,0.405 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.21,-0.319,-0.113 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.107,-0.214,-0.043 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.103,-0.206,-0.042 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.15,-0.234,-0.07 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.099,-0.204,-0.036 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.165,-0.284,-0.067 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.144,-0.271,-0.038 @@ -218,14 +249,15 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.06,-0.134,-0.011 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.023,-0.047,0.002 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.295,0.136,0.477,-0.032,-0.071,0.006 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.085,-0.195,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.477,0.295,0.66,-0.006,-0.046,0.027 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.023,-0.091,0.02 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.477,0.295,0.66,-0.006,-0.046,0.027 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.014,-0.033,0.075 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.314,0.236,0.392 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.347,-0.122 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.123,-0.217,-0.051 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.119,-0.218,-0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.166,-0.272,-0.079 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.115,-0.212,-0.045 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.182,-0.308,-0.085 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.16,-0.31,-0.036 @@ -234,14 +266,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.075,-0.149,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.038,-0.107,0.009 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.047,-0.114,0.004 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.101,-0.23,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.021,-0.097,0.034 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.038,-0.109,0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.021,-0.097,0.034 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.015,-0.081,0.032 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.817,1.0,0.304,0.206,0.4 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.763,-1.06,-0.534 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.613,-0.974,-0.382 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.608,-0.961,-0.379 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.675,-0.933,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.602,-0.952,-0.376 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.697,-0.986,-0.489 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-0.894,-0.47 @@ -250,8 +283,8 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.544,-0.835,-0.341 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.49,-0.691,-0.338 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.73,-0.33 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.581,-0.825,-0.395 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.466,-0.681,-0.295 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.49,-0.762,-0.309 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.466,-0.681,-0.295 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.457,-0.645,-0.309 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.183,-0.436,-0.667,-0.26 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv index 19f729dba115f04ede88f8527b85d7fbad200974..ad8827e2d2d38ece4ead2a43bf97c224d9e0c4f0 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -4,13 +4,13 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.09,0.008,0.176 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.091,0.008,0.179 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.096,0.009,0.185 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.039,-0.004,0.09 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.056,0.023,0.089 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.057,0.002,0.12 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.129,0.051,0.208 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.155,0.076,0.23 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.121,0.077,0.164 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.161,0.079,0.235 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.681,0.955,0.121,0.068,0.173 -Chronos-2,TFT,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.205,0.095,0.309 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.166,0.09,0.246 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.189,0.111,0.257 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.184,0.104,0.261 @@ -21,13 +21,13 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.001,-0.008,0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.007,-0.003,0.015 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.056,-0.18,0.041 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.037,-0.128,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.036,-0.198,0.095 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.031,0.057 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.072,0.027,0.131 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.034,-0.04,0.098 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.078,0.038,0.123 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.034,-0.108,0.144 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.127,-0.027,0.254 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.084,0.06,0.111 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.109,0.063,0.159 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.074,0.135 @@ -38,13 +38,13 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.001,-0.01,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.005,-0.003,0.014 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.057,-0.182,0.039 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.038,-0.127,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.038,-0.196,0.097 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.042,0.028,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.07,0.026,0.131 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.033,-0.039,0.099 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.077,0.037,0.126 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.033,-0.11,0.143 -Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.126,-0.022,0.25 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.059,0.108 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.108,0.064,0.159 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.102,0.073,0.135 @@ -55,13 +55,13 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.007,-0.015,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.005,-0.014,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.063,-0.195,0.038 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.044,-0.141,0.041 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.043,-0.208,0.094 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.037,0.023,0.055 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.065,0.021,0.128 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.027,-0.05,0.098 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.072,0.03,0.123 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.028,-0.124,0.139 -Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.121,-0.033,0.251 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.078,0.053,0.106 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.103,0.059,0.156 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.097,0.067,0.131 @@ -72,30 +72,47 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.053,-0.043,0.152 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.054,-0.041,0.154 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.059,-0.039,0.163 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.018,-0.035,0.068 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.018,-0.055,0.091 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.093,0.005,0.188 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.636,0.409,0.864,0.121,0.04,0.204 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.085,0.038,0.134 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.126,0.036,0.217 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.085,0.031,0.139 -TiRex-2,TFT,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.173,0.091,0.255 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.132,0.049,0.227 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.156,0.078,0.236 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.15,0.068,0.236 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.165,0.091,0.241 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.46,0.601 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.06,-0.098,-0.024 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.036,-0.047,0.114 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.037,-0.046,0.113 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.042,-0.043,0.123 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.018,-0.073,0.034 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.317,0.727,0.001,-0.067,0.069 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.077,0.003,0.15 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.727,0.544,0.909,0.105,0.041,0.167 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.068,0.028,0.103 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.111,0.044,0.176 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.069,0.004,0.128 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.117,0.05,0.187 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.141,0.078,0.198 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.135,0.063,0.201 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.15,0.08,0.214 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.455,0.587 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.06,-0.136,-0.002 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.035,-0.105,0.165 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.036,-0.107,0.164 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.042,-0.104,0.172 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.019,-0.1,0.052 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.5,0.273,0.683,-0.001,-0.074,0.063 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.077,-0.048,0.199 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.104,0.006,0.21 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.068,-0.005,0.14 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.318,0.728,0.11,-0.001,0.219 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.068,0.02,0.11 -TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.157,0.025,0.273 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.116,-0.0,0.23 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.14,0.038,0.241 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.134,0.019,0.244 @@ -106,13 +123,13 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.061,-0.032 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.044,-0.063,-0.029 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.038,-0.059,-0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.103,-0.231,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.084,-0.176,-0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.083,-0.248,0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.03,-0.007,0.081 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.009,-0.08,0.05 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.036,0.001,0.077 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.009,-0.153,0.099 -Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.088,-0.071,0.217 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.043,0.024,0.064 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.069,0.027,0.114 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.063,0.04,0.088 @@ -123,13 +140,13 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.077,-0.151,-0.028 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.076,-0.151,-0.027 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.07,-0.147,-0.021 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.364,0.136,0.591,-0.137,-0.256,-0.042 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.273,0.091,0.456,-0.117,-0.2,-0.043 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.116,-0.266,-0.006 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.031,-0.088,0.007 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,citras-fm,0.545,0.363,0.728,-0.041,-0.107,0.012 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.006,-0.026,0.038 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.04,-0.177,0.062 -TiRex,TFT,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.059,-0.094,0.188 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.013,-0.037,0.043 TiRex,FlowState,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.04,0.006,0.073 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.727,0.544,0.909,0.034,-0.009,0.069 @@ -140,13 +157,13 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.035,-0.109,0.038 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.034,-0.109,0.038 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.028,-0.109,0.048 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.093,-0.155,-0.04 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.074,-0.115,-0.029 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.073,-0.163,0.005 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.009,-0.052,0.074 citras-fm,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.637,0.039,-0.012,0.097 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.455,0.273,0.636,0.045,-0.01,0.105 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.0,-0.074,0.066 -citras-fm,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.096,-0.025,0.202 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.052,-0.004,0.116 citras-fm,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.077,0.027,0.129 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.071,0.018,0.129 @@ -157,13 +174,13 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.084,-0.141,-0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.083,-0.144,-0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.077,-0.14,-0.031 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.145,-0.277,-0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.124,-0.213,-0.046 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.455,0.272,0.682,-0.124,-0.281,0.001 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.038,-0.083,-0.001 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.007,-0.039,0.025 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.545,0.364,0.727,-0.047,-0.117,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.047,-0.184,0.055 -TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.053,-0.116,0.188 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.007,-0.035,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.659,0.455,0.818,0.034,0.002,0.064 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.027,-0.007,0.062 @@ -174,47 +191,30 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.035,-0.168,0.097 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.034,-0.167,0.099 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.028,-0.162,0.11 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.093,-0.161,-0.032 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.074,-0.147,-0.004 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.073,-0.123,-0.021 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.009,-0.11,0.132 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.039,-0.066,0.15 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.0,-0.071,0.069 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.045,-0.059,0.156 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.096,-0.024,0.206 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.052,-0.065,0.172 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.077,-0.027,0.18 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.071,-0.046,0.184 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.087,-0.014,0.186 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.416,0.557 -TFT,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.259,-0.446,-0.105 -TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.145,-0.341,0.027 -TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.144,-0.334,0.021 -TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.137,-0.335,0.032 -TFT,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.209,-0.342,-0.1 -TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.187,-0.376,-0.025 -TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.096,-0.278,0.066 -TFT,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.063,-0.231,0.086 -TFT,citras-fm,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.106,-0.254,0.024 -TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.056,-0.232,0.104 -TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.106,-0.259,0.023 -TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TFT,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.049,-0.217,0.106 -TFT,FlowState,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.021,-0.187,0.129 -TFT,Toto-2.0-4m,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.027,-0.2,0.128 -TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.01,-0.167,0.129 -TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.433,0.316,0.539 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.2,-0.326,-0.099 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.125,-0.063 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.09,-0.122,-0.063 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.084,-0.118,-0.056 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.152,-0.293,-0.051 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.132,-0.23,-0.053 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.131,-0.299,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.045,-0.068,-0.025 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.013,-0.045,0.036 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.055,-0.131,0.004 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.007,-0.04,0.034 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.054,-0.207,0.061 -Toto-1.0,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.047,-0.118,0.178 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.027,-0.01,0.067 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.021,-0.006,0.049 @@ -225,13 +225,13 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.122,-0.189,-0.067 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.121,-0.189,-0.069 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.114,-0.185,-0.062 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.184,-0.309,-0.084 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.164,-0.247,-0.085 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.163,-0.318,-0.04 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.074,-0.129,-0.028 FlowState,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.042,-0.079,-0.006 FlowState,citras-fm,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.084,-0.148,-0.028 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.341,0.182,0.545,-0.035,-0.069,-0.002 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.084,-0.219,0.026 -FlowState,TFT,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.02,-0.148,0.158 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.028,-0.072,0.01 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.007,-0.049,0.037 @@ -242,13 +242,13 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.157,-0.08 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.113,-0.156,-0.079 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.107,-0.151,-0.072 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.177,-0.308,-0.073 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.156,-0.252,-0.068 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.155,-0.322,-0.02 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.067,-0.097,-0.041 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.273,0.091,0.456,-0.035,-0.074,0.009 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.077,-0.149,-0.018 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.028,-0.066,0.007 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.077,-0.225,0.044 -Toto-2.0-4m,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.027,-0.147,0.166 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.021,-0.051,0.005 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.006,-0.038,0.047 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -259,13 +259,13 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.134,-0.213,-0.072 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.132,-0.217,-0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.126,-0.211,-0.061 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.197,-0.318,-0.1 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.176,-0.272,-0.087 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.175,-0.33,-0.05 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.085,-0.153,-0.031 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.053,-0.114,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.095,-0.163,-0.041 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.046,-0.106,0.001 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.095,-0.228,0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.01,-0.148,0.143 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.039,-0.103,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.432,0.249,0.614,-0.011,-0.079,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.017,-0.077,0.033 @@ -276,13 +276,13 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.02,-1.417,-0.721 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.017,-1.417,-0.723 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.006,-1.412,-0.709 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.132,-1.509,-0.852 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.095,-1.421,-0.834 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.093,-1.357,-0.857 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.933,-1.287,-0.663 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.161,-0.647 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.951,-1.261,-0.715 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.863,-1.171,-0.61 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.951,-1.257,-0.712 -Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.764,-1.17,-0.462 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.192,-0.592 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.8,-1.106,-0.561 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.812,-1.145,-0.572 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index b6cbd8ce73a10ed9ecf264bbb30d3272aef29e7b..d8f49b163d9b919608a479991004ce073e523898 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,25 +1,9 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.545,0.363,0.727,-0.085,-0.202,0.014 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.007,-0.001,0.015 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.001,-0.016,0.013 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.053,-0.18,0.051 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.031,-0.175,0.106 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.046,0.025,0.072 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.032,-0.044,0.107 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.025,-0.098,0.127 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.085,0.031,0.147 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.095,0.037,0.167 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.11,0.066,0.171 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.144,-0.018,0.302 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.112,0.05,0.186 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.104,0.051,0.162 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.058,0.168 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.44,0.318,0.566 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.273,0.637,0.079,-0.014,0.168 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.273,0.637,0.079,-0.014,0.168 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.318,0.683,0.085,-0.008,0.174 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.273,0.637,0.079,-0.012,0.172 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.039,-0.001,0.077 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.03,-0.017,0.083 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.05,-0.009,0.113 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.121,0.045,0.198 @@ -28,15 +12,32 @@ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.102,0.048,0.151 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.157,0.08,0.228 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.238 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.18,0.099,0.26 -Chronos-2,TFT,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.212,0.084,0.332 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.182,0.113,0.247 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.236 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.177,0.11,0.243 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.484,0.381,0.579 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.007,-0.015,0.001 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.545,0.363,0.727,-0.085,-0.202,0.014 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.007,-0.001,0.015 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.001,-0.016,0.013 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.409,0.226,0.591,-0.043,-0.147,0.052 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.053,-0.18,0.051 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.031,-0.175,0.106 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.046,0.025,0.072 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.032,-0.044,0.107 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.025,-0.098,0.127 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.085,0.031,0.147 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.095,0.037,0.167 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.11,0.066,0.171 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.112,0.05,0.186 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.104,0.051,0.162 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.058,0.168 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.44,0.318,0.566 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.5,0.317,0.682,-0.093,-0.211,0.008 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.007,-0.015,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.006,-0.027,0.008 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.051,-0.159,0.045 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.636,0.453,0.818,-0.061,-0.196,0.046 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.636,0.453,0.818,-0.038,-0.188,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.039,0.018,0.065 @@ -45,15 +46,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.018,-0.11,0.123 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.078,0.028,0.14 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.088,0.034,0.161 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.103,0.061,0.162 -Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.138,-0.026,0.295 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.105,0.045,0.181 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.097,0.045,0.155 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.1,0.052,0.161 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.436,0.312,0.561 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.001,-0.014,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.545,0.363,0.727,-0.086,-0.207,0.012 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.001,-0.014,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.006,-0.008,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.044,-0.147,0.047 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.054,-0.187,0.05 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.032,-0.176,0.103 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.045,0.024,0.071 @@ -62,15 +63,32 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.024,-0.098,0.126 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.084,0.033,0.144 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.094,0.034,0.167 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.109,0.065,0.165 -Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.144,-0.017,0.297 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.111,0.049,0.187 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.103,0.052,0.158 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.106,0.056,0.168 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.319,0.565 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.05,-0.054,0.153 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.04,-0.083,0.001 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.591,0.409,0.774,0.042,-0.055,0.129 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.049,-0.047,0.137 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.042,-0.049,0.128 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.009,-0.064,0.038 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.591,0.408,0.773,0.012,-0.052,0.078 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.591,0.409,0.774,0.086,0.009,0.161 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.072,0.033,0.112 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.065,0.018,0.108 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.682,0.955,0.123,0.06,0.187 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.133,0.064,0.202 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.147,0.075,0.222 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.149,0.086,0.213 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.141,0.081,0.199 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.144,0.083,0.205 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.371,0.553 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.031,-0.09,0.016 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.05,-0.054,0.153 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.057,-0.048,0.164 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.051,-0.053,0.157 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.009,-0.039,0.06 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.021,-0.048,0.093 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.591,0.408,0.774,0.094,0.006,0.186 @@ -79,15 +97,15 @@ TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.074,0.032,0.12 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.131,0.045,0.221 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.141,0.059,0.221 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.155,0.061,0.253 -TiRex-2,TFT,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.187,0.08,0.296 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.157,0.083,0.233 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.149,0.077,0.225 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.152,0.078,0.231 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.372,0.565 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.03,-0.118,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.053,-0.127,0.009 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.03,-0.118,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.037,-0.111,0.158 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.031,-0.115,0.149 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.409,0.227,0.592,-0.012,-0.084,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.022,-0.103,0.046 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.074,-0.042,0.18 @@ -96,15 +114,15 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.054,0.01,0.095 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.112,0.017,0.203 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.591,0.409,0.818,0.122,0.029,0.216 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.136,0.023,0.238 -TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.17,0.026,0.297 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.138,0.057,0.217 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.13,0.041,0.215 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.133,0.049,0.213 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.361,0.54 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.048,-0.078,-0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.138,-0.247,-0.047 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.048,-0.078,-0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.041,-0.07,-0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.047,-0.076,-0.025 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.409,0.226,0.591,-0.094,-0.192,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.409,0.226,0.592,-0.104,-0.229,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.08,-0.219,0.04 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -113,15 +131,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.022,-0.13,0.072 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.041,-0.003,0.087 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.051,0.006,0.107 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.067,0.027,0.115 -Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.103,-0.055,0.256 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.069,0.022,0.127 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.06,0.02,0.101 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.064,0.029,0.107 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.299,0.535 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.033,-0.12,0.042 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.121,-0.175,-0.068 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.033,-0.12,0.042 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.025,-0.11,0.049 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.032,-0.116,0.044 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.077,-0.126,-0.034 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.087,-0.153,-0.033 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.064,-0.14,0.013 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.227,0.592,0.015,-0.045,0.072 @@ -130,15 +148,15 @@ citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.007,-0.067,0.047 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.055,0.004,0.11 citras-fm,TiRex,0.591,0.409,0.818,0.065,0.017,0.118 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.081,0.02,0.149 -citras-fm,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.116,-0.024,0.245 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.083,0.041,0.125 citras-fm,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.074,0.03,0.119 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.078,0.041,0.122 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.422,0.318,0.524 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.026,-0.146,0.089 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.113,-0.178,-0.05 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.026,-0.146,0.089 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.018,-0.141,0.099 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.025,-0.144,0.089 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.07,-0.121,-0.018 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.08,-0.137,-0.033 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.057,-0.106,-0.01 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.022,-0.077,0.115 @@ -147,15 +165,15 @@ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.062,-0.02,0.148 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.072,-0.018,0.158 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.087,-0.015,0.189 -TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.122,-0.012,0.246 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.089,0.013,0.163 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.081,0.004,0.156 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.084,0.009,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.322,0.523 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.093,-0.173,-0.032 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.186,-0.295,-0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.093,-0.173,-0.032 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.085,-0.162,-0.029 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.092,-0.168,-0.034 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.318,-0.14,-0.23,-0.064 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.151,-0.283,-0.048 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.126,-0.255,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.042,-0.095,0.003 @@ -164,15 +182,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.066,-0.174,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.011,-0.023,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.659,0.027,-0.022,0.073 -TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.065,-0.099,0.212 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.029,-0.011,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.02,-0.011,0.054 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.341,0.705,0.024,-0.007,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.28,0.499 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.105,-0.201,-0.039 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.199,-0.312,-0.097 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.105,-0.201,-0.039 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.097,-0.191,-0.035 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.104,-0.2,-0.036 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.153,-0.253,-0.068 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.163,-0.284,-0.063 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.409,0.182,0.591,-0.139,-0.275,-0.03 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.054,-0.12,-0.006 @@ -181,15 +199,15 @@ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.077,-0.188,0.018 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.011,-0.05,0.023 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.017,-0.042,0.059 -TiRex,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.055,-0.118,0.201 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.019,-0.004,0.039 TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.01,-0.031,0.048 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.013,-0.016,0.042 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.382,0.279,0.484 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.124,-0.206,-0.071 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.219,-0.352,-0.11 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.124,-0.206,-0.071 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.115,-0.193,-0.065 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.123,-0.198,-0.069 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.172,-0.285,-0.081 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.183,-0.338,-0.064 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.158,-0.312,-0.023 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.072,-0.13,-0.028 @@ -198,32 +216,15 @@ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.096,-0.233,0.014 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.523,0.341,0.705,-0.028,-0.079,0.021 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.017,-0.062,0.04 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.039,-0.128,0.181 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.34,0.705,0.002,-0.052,0.064 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.477,0.273,0.659,-0.007,-0.058,0.044 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,-0.003,-0.05,0.044 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.371,0.26,0.487 -TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.169,-0.433,0.018 -TFT,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.268,-0.497,-0.091 -TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.16,-0.419,0.025 -TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.168,-0.423,0.017 -TFT,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.231,-0.421,-0.087 -TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.204,-0.422,-0.027 -TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.115,-0.343,0.052 -TFT,citras-fm,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.132,-0.325,0.024 -TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.14,-0.327,0.011 -TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.069,-0.269,0.09 -TFT,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.058,-0.251,0.106 -TFT,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.04,-0.221,0.113 -TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.038,-0.233,0.121 -TFT,FlowState,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.048,-0.24,0.106 -TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.044,-0.238,0.11 -TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.886,0.75,1.0,0.346,0.224,0.457 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.126,-0.229,-0.053 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.222,-0.328,-0.127 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.126,-0.229,-0.053 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.118,-0.221,-0.047 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.125,-0.229,-0.051 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.175,-0.271,-0.094 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.186,-0.303,-0.09 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.16,-0.278,-0.061 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.074,-0.145,-0.023 @@ -232,15 +233,15 @@ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.098,-0.195,-0.013 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.03,-0.074,0.011 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.019,-0.041,0.004 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.66,-0.002,-0.068,0.049 -Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.037,-0.137,0.189 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.523,0.318,0.705,-0.009,-0.052,0.025 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.006,-0.036,0.022 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.37,0.264,0.475 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.116,-0.193,-0.054 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.211,-0.309,-0.113 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.116,-0.193,-0.054 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.107,-0.183,-0.047 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.115,-0.188,-0.055 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.164,-0.248,-0.088 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.175,-0.29,-0.083 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.15,-0.274,-0.043 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.064,-0.113,-0.021 @@ -249,15 +250,15 @@ FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.088,-0.184,-0.004 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.021,-0.057,0.011 FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.01,-0.05,0.03 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.341,0.727,0.007,-0.046,0.055 -FlowState,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.045,-0.118,0.194 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.295,0.682,0.009,-0.026,0.05 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.004,-0.039,0.04 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.376,0.259,0.489 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.202,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.215,-0.32,-0.123 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.202,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.112,-0.193,-0.055 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.119,-0.202,-0.06 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.168,-0.258,-0.09 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.179,-0.301,-0.085 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.154,-0.271,-0.052 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.068,-0.12,-0.03 @@ -266,15 +267,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.092,-0.195,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.659,-0.025,-0.062,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.013,-0.043,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,0.003,-0.046,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.042,-0.124,0.192 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.005,-0.022,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.004,-0.042,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.373,0.266,0.484 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.787,-1.306,-0.466 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.94,-1.374,-0.616 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.787,-1.306,-0.466 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.774,-1.279,-0.454 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.301,-0.469 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.865,-1.235,-0.59 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.882,-1.297,-0.592 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.842,-1.174,-0.564 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.705,-1.15,-0.428 @@ -283,7 +284,6 @@ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.743,-1.097,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.635,-0.996,-0.389 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.617,-0.937,-0.386 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.59,-0.949,-0.351 -Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.114,0.0,0.25,-0.529,-0.843,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.587,-0.905,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.602,-0.958,-0.35 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.596,-0.938,-0.363 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 0fb1b024a176ccd173f3fd3cfaa0f3fc60f351ef..a581db42510ac93d02ae2a6b4fcdab5ba4872e1d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,290 +1,290 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.318,0.683,-0.003,-0.024,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.545,0.363,0.727,-0.088,-0.203,0.007 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.318,0.683,-0.003,-0.024,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.008,-0.003,0.019 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.042,-0.142,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.636,0.453,0.818,-0.052,-0.181,0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.038,-0.18,0.088 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.034,0.069 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.093,0.041,0.156 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.05,-0.021,0.115 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.048,-0.075,0.159 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.05,-0.021,0.115 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.093,0.049,0.141 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.176,-0.004,0.34 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.12,0.071,0.17 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.073,0.172 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.122,0.088,0.16 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.121,0.081,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.457,0.66 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.317,0.682,0.003,-0.012,0.023 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.085,-0.203,0.009 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.318,0.727,0.01,-0.007,0.037 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.636,0.409,0.818,-0.049,-0.182,0.052 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.035,-0.174,0.092 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.052,0.032,0.076 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.095,0.037,0.162 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.052,-0.022,0.117 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.051,-0.073,0.161 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.095,0.051,0.142 -Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.727,0.544,0.909,0.178,0.001,0.334 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.122,0.073,0.171 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.119,0.069,0.175 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.088,0.166 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.081,0.174 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.461,0.661 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.273,0.637,0.081,-0.007,0.168 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.079,-0.009,0.169 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.079,-0.009,0.169 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.088,0.002,0.175 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.727,0.5,0.909,0.042,-0.001,0.081 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.545,0.318,0.728,0.033,-0.014,0.087 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.046,-0.008,0.107 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.127,0.049,0.204 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.166,0.087,0.238 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.127,0.085,0.17 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.125,0.069,0.18 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.127,0.085,0.17 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.166,0.089,0.237 Chronos-2,TFT,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.243,0.103,0.378 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.191,0.113,0.255 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.188,0.107,0.269 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.193,0.118,0.265 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.127,0.256 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.597,0.518,0.669 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.317,0.682,0.003,-0.012,0.023 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.085,-0.203,0.009 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.318,0.727,0.01,-0.007,0.037 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.04,-0.135,0.047 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.636,0.409,0.818,-0.049,-0.182,0.052 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.035,-0.174,0.092 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.052,0.032,0.076 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.095,0.037,0.162 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.051,-0.073,0.161 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.052,-0.022,0.117 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.095,0.051,0.142 +Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.727,0.544,0.909,0.178,0.001,0.334 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.122,0.073,0.171 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.119,0.069,0.175 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.081,0.174 +Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.461,0.661 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.008,-0.019,0.003 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.01,-0.038,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.097,-0.213,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.01,-0.038,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.05,-0.152,0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.636,0.453,0.818,-0.06,-0.192,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.046,-0.192,0.085 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.043,0.024,0.065 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.086,0.034,0.152 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.043,-0.029,0.111 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.041,-0.09,0.156 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.043,-0.029,0.111 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.086,0.041,0.137 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.169,-0.013,0.337 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.113,0.064,0.166 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.11,0.068,0.163 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.115,0.081,0.151 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.114,0.071,0.169 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.455,0.66 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.04,-0.052,0.124 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.044,-0.088,0.001 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.038,-0.05,0.119 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.048,-0.044,0.132 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.01,-0.065,0.042 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.455,0.273,0.636,0.004,-0.053,0.068 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.088,0.012,0.164 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.129,0.059,0.198 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.087,0.031,0.136 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.089,0.046,0.128 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.13,0.065,0.192 +TS-ICL,TFT,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.209,0.074,0.335 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.155,0.09,0.212 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.153,0.078,0.226 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.157,0.1,0.213 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.579,0.504,0.648 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.05,-0.055,0.153 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.364,0.182,0.591,0.047,-0.055,0.154 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.455,0.272,0.682,-0.034,-0.096,0.014 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.364,0.182,0.591,0.047,-0.055,0.154 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.057,-0.046,0.161 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.009,-0.043,0.061 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.014,-0.056,0.087 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.097,0.007,0.193 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.138,0.056,0.22 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.097,0.05,0.148 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.095,0.045,0.151 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.097,0.05,0.148 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.138,0.051,0.23 TiRex-2,TFT,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.217,0.101,0.338 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.163,0.087,0.239 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.161,0.068,0.257 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.165,0.084,0.251 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.165,0.094,0.242 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.502,0.659 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.036,-0.097,0.152 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.034,-0.102,0.148 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.049,-0.12,0.008 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.034,-0.102,0.148 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.044,-0.093,0.161 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.545,0.364,0.727,-0.004,-0.073,0.05 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.014,-0.095,0.053 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.085,-0.028,0.19 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.591,0.409,0.818,0.126,0.035,0.216 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.085,0.013,0.147 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.083,0.033,0.126 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.085,0.013,0.147 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.126,0.034,0.218 TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.206,0.052,0.343 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.152,0.062,0.237 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.149,0.038,0.248 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.727,0.5,0.909,0.154,0.053,0.249 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.153,0.07,0.232 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.501,0.645 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.074,-0.035 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.055,-0.082,-0.033 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.145,-0.257,-0.051 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.055,-0.082,-0.033 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.044,-0.069,-0.025 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.097,-0.196,-0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.108,-0.239,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.092,-0.235,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.045,0.001,0.099 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.636,0.409,0.864,0.0,-0.067,0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.002,-0.128,0.107 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.636,0.409,0.864,0.0,-0.067,0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.045,0.008,0.084 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.133,-0.05,0.3 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.073,0.031,0.116 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.07,0.033,0.118 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.076,0.05,0.103 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.075,0.043,0.114 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.435,0.636 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.102,-0.184,-0.043 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.105,-0.194,-0.038 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.199,-0.312,-0.095 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.105,-0.194,-0.038 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.093,-0.179,-0.036 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.149,-0.247,-0.063 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.159,-0.281,-0.059 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.409,0.182,0.591,-0.144,-0.276,-0.036 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.047,-0.109,-0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.047,-0.112,0.005 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.049,-0.166,0.052 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.047,-0.112,0.005 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.0,-0.041,0.034 TiRex,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.092,-0.097,0.252 TiRex,FlowState,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.03,-0.016,0.073 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.027,-0.024,0.064 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.727,0.544,0.909,0.032,-0.014,0.069 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.032,-0.001,0.06 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.424,0.603 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.053,-0.13,0.021 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.055,-0.133,0.021 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.146,-0.205,-0.093 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.045,-0.125,0.028 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.108,-0.173,-0.052 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.092,-0.172,-0.013 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.136,0.591,-0.0,-0.058,0.063 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.045,-0.005,0.101 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.002,-0.076,0.064 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.045,-0.008,0.102 -citras-fm,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.132,-0.018,0.274 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.073,0.024,0.121 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.07,0.01,0.137 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.076,0.025,0.129 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.075,0.037,0.118 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.451,0.62 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.051,-0.19,0.069 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.053,-0.192,0.068 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.143,-0.22,-0.074 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.053,-0.192,0.068 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.042,-0.185,0.083 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.095,-0.157,-0.032 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.105,-0.177,-0.047 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.09,-0.144,-0.034 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.002,-0.119,0.113 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.047,-0.055,0.142 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.318,0.727,0.002,-0.068,0.071 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.318,0.727,0.002,-0.068,0.071 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.047,-0.05,0.144 TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.134,-0.01,0.264 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.075,-0.027,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.072,-0.043,0.183 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.077,-0.035,0.178 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.409,0.818,0.077,-0.014,0.166 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.453,0.615 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.053,-0.13,0.021 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.146,-0.205,-0.093 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.055,-0.133,0.021 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.045,-0.125,0.028 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.097,-0.146,-0.048 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.108,-0.173,-0.052 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.092,-0.172,-0.013 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.136,0.591,-0.0,-0.058,0.063 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.045,-0.005,0.101 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.002,-0.076,0.064 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.045,-0.008,0.102 +citras-fm,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.132,-0.018,0.274 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.073,0.024,0.121 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.07,0.01,0.137 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.075,0.037,0.118 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.451,0.62 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.103,-0.165,-0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.105,-0.166,-0.054 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.2,-0.31,-0.098 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.105,-0.166,-0.054 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.094,-0.159,-0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.149,-0.238,-0.07 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.16,-0.3,-0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.144,-0.278,-0.035 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.047,-0.091,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.0,-0.035,0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.047,-0.114,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.049,-0.168,0.048 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.047,-0.114,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.091,-0.1,0.251 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.03,-0.007,0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.34,0.727,0.026,-0.023,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.032,-0.004,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.659,0.477,0.818,0.031,0.0,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.416,0.61 TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.213,-0.515,0.004 -TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.273,0.091,0.456,-0.217,-0.502,-0.001 TFT,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.32,-0.607,-0.115 +TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.273,0.091,0.456,-0.217,-0.502,-0.001 TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.204,-0.509,0.013 +TFT,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.265,-0.505,-0.08 TFT,TiRex-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.277,-0.509,-0.112 TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.259,-0.523,-0.055 TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.153,-0.428,0.047 TFT,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.101,-0.338,0.089 -TFT,citras-fm,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.153,-0.376,0.018 TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.155,-0.359,0.01 +TFT,citras-fm,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.153,-0.376,0.018 TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.101,-0.336,0.091 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TFT,FlowState,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.068,-0.306,0.116 TFT,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.072,-0.29,0.101 -TFT,Toto-2.0-4m,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.065,-0.299,0.116 TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.066,-0.285,0.107 TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.468,0.359,0.57 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.136,-0.204,-0.076 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.139,-0.207,-0.079 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.236,-0.343,-0.128 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.139,-0.207,-0.079 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.127,-0.199,-0.068 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.184,-0.27,-0.099 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.195,-0.314,-0.095 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.179,-0.311,-0.066 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.079,-0.132,-0.032 FlowState,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.031,-0.079,0.015 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.079,-0.138,-0.025 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.081,-0.195,0.026 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.079,-0.138,-0.025 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.03,-0.072,0.007 FlowState,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.064,-0.132,0.234 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.003,-0.059,0.046 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.002,-0.042,0.045 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.659,0.455,0.818,0.002,-0.046,0.044 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.502,0.393,0.6 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.132,-0.208,-0.079 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.135,-0.212,-0.074 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.232,-0.367,-0.119 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.135,-0.212,-0.074 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.123,-0.195,-0.073 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.18,-0.292,-0.085 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.191,-0.346,-0.073 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.175,-0.329,-0.04 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.076,-0.133,-0.034 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.027,-0.068,0.023 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.076,-0.159,-0.01 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.078,-0.224,0.041 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.076,-0.159,-0.01 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.273,0.66,-0.027,-0.077,0.023 Toto-1.0,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.067,-0.112,0.225 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.003,-0.048,0.056 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.006,-0.037,0.045 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.005,-0.045,0.054 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.4,0.602 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.139,-0.19,-0.097 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.142,-0.2,-0.097 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.239,-0.36,-0.134 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.13,-0.178,-0.089 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.198,-0.335,-0.092 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.182,-0.332,-0.056 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.082,-0.115,-0.053 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.273,0.091,0.456,-0.033,-0.075,0.014 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.082,-0.148,-0.025 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.084,-0.216,0.034 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.033,-0.074,0.004 -Toto-2.0-4m,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.061,-0.131,0.23 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.002,-0.047,0.04 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.006,-0.047,0.035 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.409,0.818,-0.001,-0.039,0.034 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.5,0.395,0.601 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.138,-0.208,-0.089 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.211,-0.088 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.344,-0.145 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.211,-0.088 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.129,-0.203,-0.077 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.186,-0.271,-0.111 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.197,-0.319,-0.103 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.181,-0.302,-0.075 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.081,-0.129,-0.045 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.033,-0.064,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.081,-0.134,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.182,0.591,-0.083,-0.199,0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.081,-0.134,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.341,0.182,0.523,-0.032,-0.066,-0.0 Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.062,-0.119,0.222 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.341,0.182,0.545,-0.002,-0.046,0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.005,-0.057,0.043 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.364,0.182,0.591,0.001,-0.035,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.404,0.593 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.279,-1.944,-0.843 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.285,-1.951,-0.856 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.48,-2.023,-1.074 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.285,-1.951,-0.856 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.262,-1.938,-0.834 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.375,-1.843,-1.016 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.398,-1.933,-1.009 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.365,-1.815,-1.005 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.165,-1.745,-0.768 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.068,-1.516,-0.736 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.165,-1.635,-0.821 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-1.597,-0.828 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.165,-1.635,-0.821 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.067,-1.562,-0.712 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.878,-1.324,-0.56 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.006,-1.502,-0.648 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.516,-0.667 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.001,-1.506,-0.652 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.456,-0.678 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 6208b4755f1fb281c076e3d8e39039aa51647a5e..cc9a1afa5bddbcfe1edd78574897fd5219d3130d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,85.50420168067228,33.24685454531935,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,76.05042016806722,31.60414865708665,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,75.84033613445379,31.2993373778106,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,75.00000000000001,31.16022690269088,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,73.9495798319328,30.53253625903064,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,73.94957983193277,31.15599659767092,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.73949579831933,31.400325953903085,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,66.59663865546219,29.90729981120045,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.8655462184874,28.94758895718843,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,61.76470588235296,29.300272925895733,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,55.462184873949575,27.71288007905477,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,54.41176470588235,27.04334068544614,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -LightGBM,53.99159663865547,27.443858197799376,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.94117647058824,27.9233382954572,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,52.10084033613447,27.034786805136346,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,52.10084033613446,27.938640079737077,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,48.739495798319325,26.955049688404376,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,47.689075630252105,23.824664874707867,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,44.537815126050425,23.90713300847127,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoTheta,43.27731092436974,24.96210622300068,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 -Drift,37.81512605042016,14.172808114999302,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,34.76890756302521,23.415963966234756,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,34.34873949579832,21.20036359424431,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -DeepAR,27.521008403361343,18.404781101049906,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,20.168067226890756,14.828732811403134,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,18.487394957983188,4.657015240443951,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,18.277310924369743,9.969491749924131,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 -TFT,15.336134453781511,7.2631654434387904,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.76470588235294,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,85.395537525355,33.24685454531935,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,76.26774847870183,31.2993373778106,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,76.06490872210954,31.60414865708665,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,75.25354969574039,31.16022690269088,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,74.2393509127789,31.15599659767092,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,74.03651115618663,30.53253625903064,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.03651115618662,31.400325953903085,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,66.73427991886409,29.90729981120045,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,63.69168356997971,28.94758895718843,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,61.866125760649105,29.300272925895733,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,55.57809330628803,27.71288007905477,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,54.76673427991886,27.04334068544614,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +LightGBM,53.75253549695741,27.443858197799376,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.738336713995935,27.9233382954572,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,52.33265720081136,27.938640079737077,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,51.92697768762679,27.034786805136346,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,49.290060851926974,24.143041060970617,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,48.478701825557806,26.955049688404376,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,48.07302231237324,23.824664874707867,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,44.421906693711975,23.90713300847127,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoTheta,43.4077079107505,24.96210622300068,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +Drift,37.93103448275861,14.172808114999302,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,34.5841784989858,23.415963966234756,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,34.17849898580121,21.20036359424431,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +DeepAR,27.180527383367135,18.404781101049906,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,20.081135902636913,14.828732811403134,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Naive,18.661257606490867,4.657015240443951,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,18.052738336713993,9.969491749924131,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +TFT,15.212981744421908,7.2631654434387904,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.764705882352938,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 5a3c80ead27e4814e9f208c806cbedd86e28a66c..7c41f04e6de571339193416607e7b71ef5751205 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,90.33613445378153,34.61768806108048,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.30252100840337,32.50619254796663,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.57142857142858,32.19243757821526,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,78.36134453781513,32.051621507624176,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,77.10084033613444,31.959072391382303,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,76.890756302521,31.864956165412174,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,90.46653144016229,34.61768806108048,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.13590263691687,32.50619254796663,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.70182555780934,32.19243757821526,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,78.49898580121703,32.051621507624176,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,77.28194726166329,31.959072391382303,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.28194726166326,31.864956165412174,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,76.47058823529412,31.736118387059985,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,67.43697478991596,29.756158497560868,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,66.38655462184872,30.6194130690149,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,64.49579831932772,29.636515500753745,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.13445378151259,29.111909362943443,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,60.50420168067225,29.28469175353858,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,57.35294117647059,27.453887143184406,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,54.20168067226891,23.93881415260619,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.260504201680654,25.340510079762048,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,49.78991596638656,24.72712551313898,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,47.37394957983193,25.546718735921615,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,46.63865546218487,25.353548156637395,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,40.44117647058823,22.311614601785536,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoTheta,38.65546218487394,22.773093515453148,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,34.033613445378144,18.95227595931224,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 -Drift,28.151260504201677,7.532134770506794,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,21.95378151260504,11.558604544866135,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,21.008403361344534,13.644306827349173,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 -TFT,18.802521008403357,6.970181833006062,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,18.067226890756302,13.157433589700718,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,17.016806722689076,9.655963998764527,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.235294117647056,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.025210084033615,-2.4793582422915295,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,67.34279918864095,29.756158497560868,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,66.1257606490872,30.6194130690149,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,65.11156186612574,29.636515500753745,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.05476673427991,29.111909362943443,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,60.446247464503024,29.28469175353858,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,57.60649087221095,27.453887143184406,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,53.9553752535497,23.93881415260619,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,50.9127789046653,25.340510079762048,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TS-ICL,50.304259634888425,24.470771774725662,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,50.10141987829614,24.72712551313898,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,46.95740365111561,25.546718735921615,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,46.450304259634876,25.353548156637395,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,40.46653144016227,22.311614601785536,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoTheta,38.53955375253549,22.773093515453148,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,34.07707910750506,18.95227595931224,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +Drift,28.1947261663286,7.532134770506794,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,21.805273833671396,11.558604544866135,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,21.095334685598377,13.644306827349173,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +TFT,18.559837728194722,6.970181833006062,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,18.052738336713993,13.157433589700718,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,16.632860040567948,9.655963998764527,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.387423935091276,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.98174442190669,-2.4793582422915295,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 8c8f8da47576b017ff621956bd78f1612a189d73..3b3980ece676f53182d984cafbe88f0b2674181b 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,85.71428571428574,35.47709683274377,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.36134453781514,32.54976390060501,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,78.36134453781514,32.33165859671511,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.05042016806723,31.93453427610564,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,70.7983193277311,31.522233947421352,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,67.43697478991596,31.178074157120616,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,66.59663865546219,30.081050457081993,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,64.91596638655463,31.77302727530469,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,63.235294117647065,28.807733540481053,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.025210084033624,31.21110067813505,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.924369747899156,30.765940098594292,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,57.352941176470594,26.27778339285762,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,56.30252100840336,27.447436027254422,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,55.46218487394958,28.748363429468192,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,50.0,26.31180740104997,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,49.159663865546214,24.751569683371734,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoARIMA,47.89915966386555,28.81554958594127,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,44.747899159663866,24.472736703476706,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,41.17647058823528,23.39157666623001,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,40.44117647058824,19.902281176879587,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,40.44117647058823,21.777971337308443,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,36.554621848739494,23.951462230472398,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 -Drift,34.2436974789916,12.00859537363812,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 -Naive,24.159663865546214,4.816376316650361,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,21.63865546218487,14.69276032297161,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 -TFT,21.008403361344534,5.59099536017399,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,20.3781512605042,11.581561029743536,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,18.277310924369747,8.6187097646932,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.336134453781508,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,86.00405679513187,35.47709683274377,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.70182555780934,32.54976390060501,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,78.70182555780934,32.33165859671511,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.67342799188641,31.93453427610564,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,70.99391480730223,31.522233947421352,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,67.74847870182555,31.178074157120616,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.13995943204868,30.081050457081993,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,64.70588235294117,31.77302727530469,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.48884381338742,28.807733540481053,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,63.08316430020283,31.21110067813505,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,61.05476673427991,30.765940098594292,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,57.60649087221097,26.27778339285762,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,56.3894523326572,27.447436027254422,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,55.57809330628803,28.748363429468192,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,49.89858012170386,26.31180740104997,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,49.290060851926974,24.751569683371734,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoARIMA,47.46450304259635,28.81554958594127,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,46.855983772819464,20.992246724898678,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,44.62474645030425,24.472736703476706,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,40.97363083164299,23.39157666623001,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,40.46653144016227,21.777971337308443,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,40.46653144016227,19.902281176879587,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoTheta,36.71399594320487,23.951462230472398,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +Drift,34.27991886409736,12.00859537363812,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +Naive,24.340770791075048,4.816376316650361,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,21.703853955375248,14.69276032297161,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +TFT,20.892494929006087,5.59099536017399,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,20.283975659229203,11.581561029743536,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,18.458417849898577,8.6187097646932,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.415821501014193,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv index cc6f7f7b197b2d6d7cfb330bd4f03fc08869fd98..44175c31e1f9709350cca9ee2eaa88cd68caeecb 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,88.44537815126053,39.37251974458233,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.15126050420169,36.07056206795182,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.52100840336136,35.540112055824814,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.26050420168067,35.622311533639696,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,73.94957983193277,35.59416781126772,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,72.68907563025209,35.31685152461066,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,71.84873949579831,34.840937302524225,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.43697478991596,35.14923905262079,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,67.01680672268907,34.78764265431883,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.96638655462185,33.1611996370734,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -citras-fm,64.91596638655463,32.7813764944805,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,60.7142857142857,30.905989094188435,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,59.243697478991585,31.993182268159337,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,56.51260504201681,31.49502571678424,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,54.41176470588235,29.814447214956086,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,51.68067226890757,30.176887641206196,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,48.424369747899156,27.87011707717124,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,46.113445378151255,25.330398382950904,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoARIMA,45.16806722689075,27.948988222402328,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,37.184873949579824,22.687211866018643,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,26.890756302521012,16.415472979310586,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 -Drift,23.109243697478984,4.105439375083986,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,23.004201680672264,13.012464361157516,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 -TFT,21.743697478991596,7.687085486183776,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,21.008403361344534,13.410408922172534,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,20.168067226890756,12.170893500780867,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,19.53781512605042,11.214833669530645,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.17647058823529,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.705882352941174,-4.030261072578956,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,88.84381338742395,39.37251974458233,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.49898580121706,36.07056206795182,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,78.09330628803247,35.540112055824814,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.8762677484787,35.622311533639696,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,74.84787018255578,35.59416781126772,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,73.02231237322513,35.31685152461066,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,72.41379310344827,34.840937302524225,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,67.54563894523325,35.14923905262079,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,66.93711967545637,34.78764265431883,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.32860040567951,33.1611996370734,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +citras-fm,65.51724137931033,32.7813764944805,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,61.054766734279895,30.905989094188435,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,58.823529411764696,31.993182268159337,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,56.389452332657186,31.49502571678424,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.76673427991885,29.814447214956086,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,51.92697768762679,30.176887641206196,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.17444219066937,27.87011707717124,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,46.85598377281947,25.105068099028372,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,46.34888438133873,25.330398382950904,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoARIMA,45.03042596348884,27.948988222402328,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,36.91683569979715,22.687211866018643,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,26.369168356997974,16.415472979310586,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,23.022312373225144,13.012464361157516,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +Drift,22.920892494929,4.105439375083986,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +TFT,21.602434077079106,7.687085486183776,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,20.89249492900608,13.410408922172534,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,20.081135902636913,12.170893500780867,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,19.066937119675455,11.214833669530645,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.227180527383364,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,14.604462474645027,-4.030261072578956,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv index 5282a1e0b53f161f6b8237eaa7ba68f04749ba94..da26ded6eab3e3bd1517a395fc679176cc88d980 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -12,8 +12,8 @@ TiRex-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.056,0.028,0.089 TiRex-2,LightGBM,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.08,0.041,0.117 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.085,0.044,0.129 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.077,0.043,0.115 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.074,0.034,0.112 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.074,0.047,0.1 -TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.047,0.123 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.128,0.085,0.172 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.233,0.438 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.031,-0.057,-0.005 @@ -29,8 +29,8 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.026,-0.005,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.051,-0.005,0.1 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.056,0.027,0.085 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.048,0.023,0.074 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.045,0.001,0.087 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.045,0.013,0.078 -Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.057,0.003,0.101 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.101,0.063,0.141 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.312,0.216,0.412 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.029,-0.052,-0.007 @@ -46,8 +46,8 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.028,0.001,0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,LightGBM,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.053,0.011,0.095 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.058,0.013,0.101 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.05,0.017,0.085 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.047,-0.001,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.031,0.062 -Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.058,0.018,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.064,0.144 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.212,0.418 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.025,-0.061,0.007 @@ -63,8 +63,8 @@ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.033,0.013,0.053 Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.057,0.023,0.093 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.02,0.109 Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.054,0.011,0.101 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.051,0.016,0.082 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.051,0.016,0.088 -Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.026,0.099 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.107,0.064,0.147 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.316,0.229,0.413 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.028,-0.058,0.003 @@ -80,8 +80,8 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.03,0.002,0.058 Toto-2.0-2.5B,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.055,-0.0,0.104 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.06,0.03,0.089 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.051,0.026,0.075 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.048,0.009,0.087 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.048,0.015,0.084 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.06,0.007,0.106 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.104,0.064,0.143 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.314,0.218,0.412 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.041,-0.095,0.002 @@ -97,8 +97,8 @@ Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.017,-0.009,0.042 Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.019,0.098 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,0.01,0.084 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.039,0.007,0.068 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.036,0.002,0.066 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.036,-0.019,0.089 -Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,-0.009,0.101 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.054,0.135 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.224,0.397 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.031,-0.057,-0.006 @@ -114,8 +114,8 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.026,-0.001,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.051,-0.001,0.099 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.056,0.024,0.089 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.048,0.022,0.075 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.045,0.004,0.084 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.045,0.016,0.075 -Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.056,0.006,0.101 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.101,0.062,0.141 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.214,0.412 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.05,-0.081,-0.027 @@ -131,8 +131,8 @@ TiRex,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.015,0.032 TiRex,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.016,0.075 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.039,0.007,0.081 TiRex,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.03,0.006,0.055 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.027,-0.008,0.062 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.028,-0.011,0.063 -TiRex,CatBoost,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.039,-0.005,0.082 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.048,0.123 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.202,0.402 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.064,-0.13,-0.013 @@ -148,8 +148,8 @@ FlowState,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.005,-0.058,0.037 FlowState,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.021,-0.034,0.067 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.026,-0.019,0.075 FlowState,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.017,-0.043,0.079 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.014,-0.033,0.054 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.014,-0.048,0.064 -FlowState,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.026,-0.024,0.069 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.735,0.971,0.072,0.028,0.113 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.21,0.371 AutoETS,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.059,-0.097,-0.029 @@ -165,8 +165,8 @@ AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoETS,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.026,-0.018,0.068 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.031,-0.008,0.074 AutoETS,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.022,-0.01,0.055 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.012,0.046 AutoETS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.019,-0.016,0.055 -AutoETS,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.011,0.071 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.077,0.039,0.114 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.204,0.392 LightGBM,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.087,-0.132,-0.043 @@ -182,8 +182,8 @@ LightGBM,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.026,-0.073,0.018 LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.005,-0.061,0.069 LightGBM,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.004,-0.064,0.06 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.007,-0.067,0.045 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-4m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.007,-0.051,0.035 -LightGBM,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.006,-0.006,0.018 LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.053,-0.002,0.101 LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.274,0.168,0.383 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.093,-0.149,-0.046 @@ -199,8 +199,8 @@ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.032,-0.08,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.006,-0.074,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.009,-0.051,0.023 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.012,-0.056,0.029 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.012,-0.068,0.045 -TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.0,-0.063,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.047,0.009,0.085 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.27,0.182,0.363 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.083,-0.13,-0.045 @@ -216,10 +216,27 @@ citras-fm,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.022,-0.058,0.01 citras-fm,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.004,-0.064,0.06 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.009,-0.023,0.049 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.003,-0.054,0.044 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.003,-0.052,0.039 -citras-fm,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.009,-0.055,0.062 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.056,0.019,0.094 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.277,0.172,0.384 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.08,-0.127,-0.035 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.047,-0.096,-0.001 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.049,-0.099,0.001 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.054,-0.09,-0.016 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.05,-0.095,-0.009 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.037,-0.07,-0.002 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.047,-0.091,-0.004 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.028,-0.066,0.008 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.014,-0.057,0.032 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.019,-0.048,0.011 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.007,-0.047,0.062 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.012,-0.03,0.053 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.003,-0.046,0.051 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.0,-0.058,0.054 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.059,0.011,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.194,0.368 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.08,-0.112,-0.05 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.047,-0.084,-0.013 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.049,-0.066,-0.032 @@ -233,27 +250,10 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.019,-0.058,0.015 Toto-2.0-4m,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.007,-0.036,0.048 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.012,-0.047,0.064 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.003,-0.041,0.049 +Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.0,-0.058,0.054 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.012,-0.029,0.055 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.059,0.018,0.102 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.279,0.167,0.395 -CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.093,-0.14,-0.05 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-1B,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.06,-0.113,-0.004 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.062,-0.109,-0.018 -CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.067,-0.11,-0.026 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.064,-0.119,-0.007 -CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.05,-0.113,0.008 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.06,-0.112,-0.006 -CatBoost,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.041,-0.089,0.005 -CatBoost,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.027,-0.074,0.024 -CatBoost,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.077,0.01 -CatBoost,LightGBM,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.006,-0.018,0.006 -CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.0,-0.064,0.059 -CatBoost,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.009,-0.066,0.052 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-4m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.012,-0.058,0.029 -CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.047,-0.005,0.09 -CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.27,0.167,0.376 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.147,-0.208,-0.093 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.112,-0.164,-0.067 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.168,-0.068 @@ -267,8 +267,8 @@ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.083,-0.129,-0.041 Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.056,-0.112,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.05,-0.093,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.059,-0.104,-0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.063,-0.113,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.063,-0.113,-0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.05,-0.099,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.234,0.137,0.333 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.498,-0.78,-0.304 @@ -284,7 +284,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.645,-0.256 Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.378,-0.62,-0.202 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.371,-0.571,-0.222 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.383,-0.624,-0.208 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.388,-0.582,-0.241 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.387,-0.652,-0.2 -Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.371,-0.603,-0.2 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.306,-0.5,-0.158 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 01c46828d03c48a26ac40bb5d885d8b7fe1e7e24..fe45b876382772e6ce8e4e57d21af80768acef1a 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,93.89880952380952,39.183559063188014,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,91.96428571428571,38.8114540766655,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,89.13690476190477,38.16300748820032,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.8452380952381,36.60567701819309,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,80.95238095238095,36.266061350746384,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,75.59523809523809,34.33193126564797,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,72.17261904761905,33.551460846942774,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,71.875,33.448620260897975,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.51785714285714,33.08143140787951,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,65.47619047619045,32.091914021126556,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -FlowState,56.54761904761906,25.746635712407915,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.02678571428571,30.491645543587975,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,52.976190476190474,28.78402737487018,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,50.297619047619044,27.612436655172846,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.18154761904761,26.492402046161224,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,46.57738095238095,27.748907584948345,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TFT,46.42857142857143,27.53144334233102,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,46.42857142857142,25.556775293313972,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,45.907738095238095,26.772635713296424,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,38.16964285714285,22.20671232134833,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 -CatBoost,38.0952380952381,21.287573524478255,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,29.166666666666668,15.414025929198116,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,23.065476190476193,7.513921637274034,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 -AutoARIMA,20.238095238095237,7.687751653596642,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 -AutoTheta,18.898809523809526,5.8706991513412525,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,14.211309523809526,-9.418472917749977,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 -Seasonal Naive,14.062499999999996,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.011904761904763,-29.011796894601318,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.273809523809524,-38.472959211654675,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,94.10919540229884,39.183559063188014,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,92.24137931034481,38.8114540766655,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,89.51149425287358,38.16300748820032,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.04022988505746,36.60567701819309,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,81.46551724137932,36.266061350746384,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,75.43103448275862,34.33193126564797,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,72.41379310344827,33.551460846942774,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,71.98275862068965,33.448620260897975,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.0919540229885,33.08143140787951,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,65.22988505747126,32.091914021126556,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TS-ICL,61.49425287356321,31.90791761419598,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,55.89080459770116,25.746635712407915,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.244252873563205,30.491645543587975,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,52.1551724137931,28.78402737487018,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,49.56896551724139,27.612436655172846,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.34770114942528,26.492402046161224,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,45.83333333333333,25.556775293313972,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,45.83333333333333,27.748907584948345,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TFT,45.54597701149425,27.53144334233102,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,45.1867816091954,26.772635713296424,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,37.57183908045976,22.20671232134833,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +CatBoost,36.92528735632183,21.287573524478255,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,28.304597701149426,15.414025929198116,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,22.413793103448278,7.513921637274034,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoARIMA,19.540229885057474,7.687751653596642,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoTheta,18.390804597701152,5.8706991513412525,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,13.721264367816094,-9.418472917749977,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Seasonal Naive,13.721264367816092,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.632183908045977,-29.011796894601318,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.1609195402298846,-38.472959211654675,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 7d2c3bdbb8e2771a808c389fbdc9a91edd29fef7..d3ad57df7ca79b965168fa676ce799c27220b8d4 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,93.60119047619048,58.26022624502954,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,93.30357142857142,58.05945381980986,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,90.32738095238095,57.694692238950076,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,83.7797619047619,56.07677943690712,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,82.73809523809526,56.381305085766286,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,75.5952380952381,54.0349203442283,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,74.40476190476191,53.83602437369355,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,74.25595238095238,53.642114861828674,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.60119047619048,52.710892944466025,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,68.30357142857143,53.090548120238765,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,59.523809523809526,51.42887909288382,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,57.58928571428571,47.894556376520924,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.324404761904766,50.17769220777839,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 -TFT,50.74404761904761,48.04926998698471,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,49.107142857142854,47.716360523829216,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,49.03273809523809,47.5861909531335,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,47.61904761904761,47.148822968097335,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,45.3125,46.3687172213469,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,43.30357142857142,46.75728672813329,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -DeepAR,40.99702380952381,42.297561992708474,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 -CatBoost,27.232142857142854,33.304508592545844,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,23.958333333333336,25.693557606338423,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Stat. Ensemble,21.57738095238095,13.462321560207968,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 -LightGBM,21.13095238095238,28.327668712071517,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.806547619047619,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,13.839285714285712,-8.679221746369192,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,13.318452380952381,-57.991659118752125,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 -Naive,7.886904761904763,-93.34435531340436,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.7857142857142856,-103.16658810164463,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,93.82183908045978,58.26022624502954,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,93.53448275862068,58.05945381980986,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,90.66091954022988,57.694692238950076,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,84.05172413793103,56.07677943690712,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.90229885057472,56.381305085766286,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,75.43103448275863,54.0349203442283,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,74.56896551724138,53.83602437369355,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,74.13793103448276,53.642114861828674,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,68.2471264367816,52.710892944466025,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,67.67241379310343,53.090548120238765,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TS-ICL,65.08620689655172,52.92655979852465,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,58.1896551724138,51.42887909288382,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,56.896551724137936,47.894556376520924,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.38793103448276,50.17769220777839,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +TFT,49.71264367816091,48.04926998698471,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,48.204022988505734,47.5861909531335,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,47.701149425287355,47.716360523829216,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,46.8390804597701,47.148822968097335,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,43.89367816091955,46.3687172213469,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,42.097701149425276,46.75728672813329,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +DeepAR,40.1580459770115,42.297561992708474,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +CatBoost,26.436781609195396,33.304508592545844,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,23.132183908045974,25.693557606338423,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +Stat. Ensemble,20.833333333333332,13.462321560207968,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +LightGBM,20.54597701149425,28.327668712071517,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.295977011494251,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,13.36206896551724,-8.679221746369192,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,12.859195402298852,-57.991659118752125,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Naive,7.614942528735632,-93.34435531340436,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.7241379310344827,-103.16658810164463,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index b8f48d03e018b84882f39498c0c1ad111d51dd13..41ff1971db7e710696a8feb5a6a86ae2fd39e6fd 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,93.30357142857143,45.65995688364923,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,91.36904761904762,45.06460970149967,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,90.62500000000001,45.55974656679499,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,82.29166666666666,42.97216097736414,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.10119047619048,43.79122178581662,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,76.04166666666669,40.85224967676806,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,70.83333333333334,39.68225936476553,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,67.70833333333333,39.40840456902303,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.66666666666666,39.029589747603886,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,64.73214285714286,38.49953279056998,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -FlowState,59.9702380952381,38.66602272763363,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.43154761904761,37.40214888898979,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,55.059523809523824,38.50913493451501,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,51.48809523809524,35.78350248618084,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,47.916666666666664,33.84989334671079,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,47.544642857142854,32.82212486071341,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,47.098214285714285,33.69441154871544,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 -TFT,46.279761904761905,33.527958313386776,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,45.68452380952381,34.275371767381245,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -CatBoost,36.9047619047619,26.34923331647584,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,35.9375,26.36531412454334,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 -LightGBM,30.20833333333332,17.747983840024006,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,22.61904761904762,15.889952173949517,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 -AutoTheta,17.55952380952381,14.492192597027309,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,17.410714285714285,10.502318217695771,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Naive,15.773809523809529,0.5343175629566765,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,14.806547619047619,0.5636978963068806,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 -Seasonal Naive,11.086309523809524,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.547619047619048,-9.202826024430877,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,93.39080459770115,45.65995688364923,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,91.52298850574712,45.06460970149967,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,90.80459770114945,45.55974656679499,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,82.47126436781606,42.97216097736414,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.32183908045978,43.79122178581662,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,76.14942528735634,40.85224967676806,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,70.97701149425288,39.68225936476553,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,67.816091954023,39.40840456902303,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.8103448275862,39.029589747603886,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,64.79885057471265,38.49953279056998,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TS-ICL,61.925287356321846,38.64525989181372,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,59.77011494252873,38.66602272763363,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.81321839080459,37.40214888898979,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,53.8793103448276,38.50913493451501,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,50.287356321839084,35.78350248618084,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,47.27011494252872,33.84989334671079,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,46.6235632183908,32.82212486071341,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,46.336206896551715,33.69441154871544,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +TFT,45.54597701149425,33.527958313386776,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,44.97126436781608,34.275371767381245,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +CatBoost,35.91954022988505,26.34923331647584,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,35.12931034482758,26.36531412454334,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +LightGBM,29.3103448275862,17.747983840024006,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,21.839080459770113,15.889952173949517,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoTheta,16.95402298850575,14.492192597027309,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,16.810344827586206,10.502318217695771,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +Naive,15.229885057471268,0.5343175629566765,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,14.295977011494251,0.5636978963068806,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Seasonal Naive,10.704022988505747,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.321839080459771,-9.202826024430877,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 49052f8edc1364f9728af98ce1c530ac9588b2b8..81789da1e70b12f7c5e3b87eb001327f8a105463 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,94.49404761904762,62.35366377965899,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,92.55952380952381,62.207924215015574,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,92.55952380952381,61.98715528742673,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,84.82142857142857,60.505612486857196,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.69642857142856,60.60556777464069,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.70238095238095,58.16102029426382,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,72.76785714285714,57.61998947703675,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,72.17261904761905,57.57281921937886,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.11309523809524,56.54552025188988,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.11309523809524,56.946495507781194,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -FlowState,62.053571428571445,56.961361441445455,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,60.26785714285714,56.97075952369879,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,57.06845238095239,55.077070569034035,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 -citras-fm,50.89285714285714,53.416195276344624,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,50.52083333333333,52.787031601443545,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 -TFT,50.148809523809526,52.21806546035845,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,47.32142857142857,51.42017852560466,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,43.973214285714285,50.660333860069414,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.11309523809523,51.22975425878349,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -DeepAR,40.25297619047618,45.60839564429823,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 -CatBoost,29.613095238095244,37.05382262022947,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,26.190476190476193,29.7027005718165,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,23.065476190476193,27.710478818867024,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Stat. Ensemble,19.791666666666664,14.65088802933251,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 -AutoTheta,13.69047619047619,-2.544644522411743,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.169642857142858,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,10.788690476190476,-58.59006093370929,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 -Naive,6.845238095238096,-70.46841685766732,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.232142857142857,-79.144175508834,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,94.54022988505749,62.35366377965899,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,92.67241379310346,61.98715528742673,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,92.67241379310344,62.207924215015574,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,84.91379310344827,60.505612486857196,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.04022988505749,60.60556777464069,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,74.71264367816093,58.16102029426382,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,72.84482758620689,57.61998947703675,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,71.83908045977012,57.57281921937886,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.95402298850574,56.946495507781194,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,66.8103448275862,56.54552025188988,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TS-ICL,64.79885057471265,57.124975138443034,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,61.637931034482776,56.961361441445455,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,58.90804597701149,56.97075952369879,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,56.106321839080444,55.077070569034035,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +PatchTST,49.78448275862068,52.787031601443545,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,49.56896551724137,53.416195276344624,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 +TFT,49.137931034482754,52.21806546035845,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,46.55172413793104,51.42017852560466,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,42.74425287356322,50.660333860069414,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,40.94827586206896,51.22975425878349,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +DeepAR,39.29597701149425,45.60839564429823,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +CatBoost,28.73563218390805,37.05382262022947,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,25.287356321839077,29.7027005718165,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,22.27011494252874,27.710478818867024,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +Stat. Ensemble,19.109195402298848,14.65088802933251,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoTheta,13.218390804597698,-2.544644522411743,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,12.715517241379311,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,10.416666666666668,-58.59006093370929,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Naive,6.609195402298851,-70.46841685766732,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.1551724137931036,-79.144175508834,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv index 49b5fd979b62c491166fba6ffeacf7abac8dda0d..949a6110aef9cfda945a3b54fe4045a55109a988 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -9,11 +9,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.085,0.052,0.123 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.086,0.054,0.122 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.091,0.064,0.122 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.104,0.071,0.14 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.079,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.181,0.084,0.285 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.125,0.088,0.164 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.146,0.078,0.216 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.121,0.23 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.103,0.23 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.121,0.23 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.332,0.463 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.006,-0.016,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -25,11 +26,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.079,0.047,0.115 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.081,0.048,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.086,0.06,0.116 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.099,0.064,0.137 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.07,0.137 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.176,0.083,0.277 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.12,0.081,0.161 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.141,0.079,0.208 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.117,0.222 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.099,0.224 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.117,0.222 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.329,0.461 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.017,-0.029,-0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.011,-0.026,0.001 @@ -41,11 +43,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.069,0.042,0.101 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.071,0.042,0.101 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.076,0.052,0.104 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.089,0.061,0.119 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.067,0.117 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.167,0.07,0.27 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.11,0.075,0.147 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.132,0.063,0.202 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.159,0.107,0.214 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.091,0.211 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.159,0.107,0.214 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.319,0.455 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.042,-0.072,-0.014 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.036,-0.062,-0.01 @@ -57,11 +60,12 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.046,0.011,0.086 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.047,0.015,0.085 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.053,0.021,0.086 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.033,0.106 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.069,0.03,0.116 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.146,0.06,0.245 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.088,0.052,0.13 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.11,0.055,0.172 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.138,0.089,0.187 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.124,0.066,0.19 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.138,0.089,0.187 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.309,0.438 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.048,-0.073,-0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.042,-0.067,-0.021 @@ -73,11 +77,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.041,0.018,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.042,0.017,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.048,0.016,0.081 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.061,0.035,0.09 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.064,0.037,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.142,0.048,0.239 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.083,0.052,0.115 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.105,0.035,0.169 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.133,0.083,0.183 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.12,0.069,0.178 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.133,0.083,0.183 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.363,0.297,0.439 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.08,-0.118,-0.047 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.073,-0.11,-0.042 @@ -89,11 +94,12 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.5,0.875,0.012,-0.003,0.026 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.013,-0.019,0.041 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.019,-0.021,0.056 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.033,0.004,0.058 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.036,0.001,0.075 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.116,0.018,0.22 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.055,0.017,0.09 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.078,0.011,0.146 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.107,0.053,0.155 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.037,0.159 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.107,0.053,0.155 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.284,0.416 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.093,-0.14,-0.055 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.086,-0.13,-0.05 @@ -105,11 +111,12 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.002,-0.031,0.023 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.007,-0.035,0.045 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.021,-0.008,0.045 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.024,-0.017,0.065 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.105,0.01,0.206 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.044,0.006,0.077 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.067,0.003,0.131 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.096,0.048,0.141 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.082,0.028,0.145 +Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.096,0.048,0.141 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.336,0.275,0.407 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.094,-0.139,-0.057 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.088,-0.134,-0.05 @@ -121,11 +128,12 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.002,-0.024,0.03 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.005,-0.036,0.042 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.02,0.005,0.034 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.023,-0.017,0.059 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.708,0.541,0.875,0.104,0.011,0.198 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.043,0.022,0.062 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.065,-0.005,0.132 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.095,0.054,0.134 TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.041,0.132 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.095,0.054,0.134 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.334,0.274,0.41 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.1,-0.139,-0.068 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.094,-0.131,-0.064 @@ -137,11 +145,12 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.007,-0.047,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.006,-0.044,0.035 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.562,0.354,0.751,0.015,-0.02,0.051 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.017,-0.017,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.099,0.001,0.213 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.037,-0.005,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.667,0.458,0.875,0.06,-0.012,0.136 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.09,0.038,0.144 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.076,0.011,0.148 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.09,0.038,0.144 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.331,0.27,0.404 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.117,-0.162,-0.076 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.11,-0.159,-0.069 @@ -153,12 +162,30 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.022,-0.047,0.008 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.02,-0.035,-0.005 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.438,0.249,0.646,-0.015,-0.053,0.019 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.003,-0.03,0.037 TiRex,FlowState,0.521,0.333,0.708,0.085,-0.012,0.19 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.688,0.5,0.855,0.023,0.001,0.046 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.046,-0.032,0.121 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.076,0.031,0.122 TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.062,0.016,0.123 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.076,0.031,0.122 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.261,0.394 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.158,-0.086 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.113,-0.158,-0.075 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.133,-0.071 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.074,-0.132,-0.03 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.068,-0.099,-0.038 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.037,-0.081,-0.001 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.025,-0.07,0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.023,-0.063,0.017 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.018,-0.056,0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.003,-0.038,0.029 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.083,-0.025,0.201 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.02,-0.017,0.055 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.044,-0.049,0.127 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.059,-0.005,0.137 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.074,0.01,0.133 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.319,0.25,0.398 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.221,-0.399,-0.092 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.214,-0.383,-0.091 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.201,-0.369,-0.076 @@ -169,11 +196,12 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.117,-0.26,-0.01 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.459,-0.116,-0.247,-0.011 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.11,-0.271,-0.001 FlowState,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,-0.093,-0.235,0.012 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.09,-0.251,0.024 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.438,0.25,0.626,-0.068,-0.198,0.028 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.043,-0.132,0.028 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.604,0.417,0.792,-0.01,-0.104,0.066 FlowState,citras-fm,0.583,0.375,0.75,-0.026,-0.103,0.046 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.604,0.417,0.792,-0.01,-0.104,0.066 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.257,0.136,0.352 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.143,-0.197,-0.097 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.136,-0.192,-0.088 @@ -185,11 +213,12 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.046,-0.083,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.044,-0.066,-0.023 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.039,-0.085,0.005 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.312,0.145,0.5,-0.024,-0.048,-0.001 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.021,-0.058,0.017 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.562,0.374,0.75,0.064,-0.028,0.165 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.024,-0.053,0.092 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.499,0.833,0.054,0.016,0.096 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.04,-0.004,0.093 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.499,0.833,0.054,0.016,0.096 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.305,0.241,0.381 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.171,-0.276,-0.085 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.164,-0.262,-0.085 @@ -201,28 +230,13 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.072,-0.151,-0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.07,-0.153,0.005 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.125,0.542,-0.064,-0.157,0.012 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.049,-0.137,0.031 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.046,-0.146,0.047 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.041,-0.028,0.116 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.025,-0.102,0.05 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.031,-0.036,0.103 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.016,-0.037,0.079 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.031,-0.036,0.103 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.288,0.196,0.377 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.299,-0.137 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.286,-0.132 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.189,-0.272,-0.12 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.16,-0.229,-0.098 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.153,-0.224,-0.09 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.119,-0.184,-0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.106,-0.164,-0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.105,-0.154,-0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.098,-0.168,-0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.082,-0.138,-0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.396,0.208,0.583,0.01,-0.07,0.094 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.501,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.032,-0.115,0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.015,-0.064,0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.265,0.197,0.334 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.299,-0.114 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.183,-0.289,-0.11 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.171,-0.267,-0.1 @@ -233,12 +247,30 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.089,-0.169,-0.029 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.152,-0.042 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.082,-0.174,-0.011 citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.066,-0.141,-0.016 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.063,-0.159,0.005 citras-fm,FlowState,0.417,0.25,0.625,0.025,-0.048,0.093 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.041,-0.102,0.004 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.016,-0.086,0.036 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.015,-0.032,0.061 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.015,-0.032,0.061 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.276,0.177,0.369 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.299,-0.137 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.286,-0.132 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.189,-0.272,-0.12 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.16,-0.229,-0.098 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.153,-0.224,-0.09 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.119,-0.184,-0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.106,-0.164,-0.05 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.105,-0.154,-0.057 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.098,-0.168,-0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.082,-0.138,-0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.08,-0.153,-0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.396,0.208,0.583,0.01,-0.07,0.094 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.501,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.032,-0.115,0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.015,-0.064,0.031 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.265,0.197,0.334 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.644,-0.862,-0.498 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.856,-0.49 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.835,-0.469 @@ -249,9 +281,10 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.505,-0.688,-0.38 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.503,-0.695,-0.378 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.494,-0.677,-0.37 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.473,-0.65,-0.354 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.469,-0.661,-0.333 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.347,-0.544,-0.157 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.439,-0.616,-0.317 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.404,-0.606,-0.243 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.36,-0.502,-0.245 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.381,-0.584,-0.215 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.36,-0.502,-0.245 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv index 8460e1a1676e719be44844f6e105b5ae12042d6d..dce5e880876f86231b179bdc3d30e24529040d01 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -7,13 +7,13 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.043,0.018,0.068 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.092,0.057,0.125 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.096,0.059,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.1,0.062,0.142 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.117,0.08,0.157 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.11,0.077,0.148 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.117,0.08,0.157 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.083,0.148 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.199,0.104,0.301 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.141,0.085,0.194 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.162,0.114,0.212 Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.197,0.139,0.252 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.142,0.266 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.17,0.279 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.479,0.687 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.667,0.458,0.833,-0.005,-0.015,0.004 @@ -24,13 +24,13 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.038,0.015,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.088,0.055,0.121 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.091,0.056,0.132 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.095,0.058,0.139 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.113,0.074,0.156 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.073,0.144 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.113,0.074,0.156 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.076,0.148 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.195,0.103,0.295 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.137,0.087,0.184 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.158,0.11,0.209 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.193,0.137,0.246 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.14,0.259 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.166,0.273 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.581,0.475,0.686 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.014,-0.024,-0.004 @@ -41,13 +41,13 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.03,0.003,0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.08,0.049,0.109 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.084,0.052,0.119 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.087,0.055,0.124 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.105,0.072,0.142 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.098,0.066,0.135 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.105,0.072,0.142 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.074,0.133 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.188,0.094,0.29 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.129,0.076,0.179 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.151,0.106,0.198 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.186,0.131,0.238 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.134,0.251 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.16,0.265 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.472,0.684 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.052,-0.081,-0.028 @@ -58,13 +58,13 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.583,0.416,0.792,-0.007,-0.04,0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.044,0.022,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.049,0.027,0.073 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.053,0.024,0.081 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.071,0.043,0.101 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.064,0.025,0.106 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.071,0.043,0.101 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.067,0.041,0.095 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.157,0.065,0.256 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.096,0.038,0.145 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.118,0.08,0.16 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.155,0.103,0.202 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.16,0.108,0.213 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.181,0.131,0.23 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.448,0.671 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.045,-0.073,-0.018 @@ -75,13 +75,13 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.051,0.013,0.092 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.055,0.017,0.1 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.059,0.023,0.102 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.078,0.039,0.126 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.07,0.031,0.113 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.078,0.039,0.126 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.033,0.122 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.076,0.256 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.102,0.06,0.144 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.125,0.077,0.179 Chronos-2,TFT,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.16,0.106,0.21 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.166,0.109,0.23 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.137,0.239 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.457,0.67 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.101,-0.143,-0.061 @@ -92,13 +92,13 @@ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.054,-0.101,-0.013 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.004,-0.019,0.024 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.008,-0.028,0.039 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.028,-0.001,0.052 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.02,-0.022,0.06 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.028,-0.001,0.052 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.024,-0.011,0.06 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.118,0.021,0.219 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.054,-0.009,0.105 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.077,0.038,0.115 Toto-1.0,TFT,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.115,0.063,0.163 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.121,0.065,0.18 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.143,0.096,0.189 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.54,0.422,0.655 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.106,-0.159,-0.063 @@ -109,13 +109,13 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.058,-0.111,-0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.004,-0.025,0.019 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.004,-0.028,0.027 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.667,0.458,0.875,0.024,-0.009,0.052 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.016,-0.033,0.06 +Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.667,0.458,0.875,0.024,-0.009,0.052 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.019,-0.018,0.056 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.114,0.015,0.214 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.05,-0.012,0.097 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.073,0.031,0.111 Toto-2.0-4m,TFT,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.111,0.068,0.154 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.117,0.067,0.17 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.139,0.091,0.183 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.421,0.652 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.111,-0.166,-0.067 @@ -126,32 +126,15 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.063,-0.114,-0.023 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.009,-0.04,0.028 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.004,-0.027,0.028 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.02,-0.001,0.038 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.012,-0.037,0.053 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.02,-0.001,0.038 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.708,0.541,0.875,0.015,-0.022,0.047 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.11,0.018,0.203 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.046,-0.024,0.103 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.07,0.046,0.094 TiRex-2,TFT,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.108,0.064,0.149 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.075,0.159 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.1,0.17 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.536,0.421,0.648 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.133,-0.186,-0.087 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.128,-0.185,-0.08 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.118,-0.165,-0.078 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.077,-0.113,-0.044 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.084,-0.144,-0.04 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.029,-0.055,0.001 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.125,0.542,-0.024,-0.055,0.009 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.02,-0.04,0.001 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.008,-0.052,0.03 -TiRex,FlowState,0.604,0.416,0.792,0.092,-0.007,0.199 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.026,-0.048,0.091 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.051,0.022,0.082 -TiRex,TFT,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.09,0.035,0.139 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.096,0.049,0.156 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.158 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.41,0.643 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.124,-0.174,-0.083 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.168,-0.079 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.109,-0.156,-0.071 @@ -160,15 +143,49 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.075,-0.127,-0.032 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.021,-0.064,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.016,-0.064,0.032 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.012,-0.056,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.008,-0.031,0.05 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.008,-0.031,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.003,-0.035,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.1,0.007,0.211 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.034,-0.029,0.092 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.058,0.01,0.11 TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.097,0.038,0.155 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.103,0.037,0.174 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.125,0.072,0.178 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.422,0.639 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.133,-0.186,-0.087 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.128,-0.185,-0.08 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.118,-0.165,-0.078 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.077,-0.113,-0.044 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.084,-0.144,-0.04 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.029,-0.055,0.001 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.125,0.542,-0.024,-0.055,0.009 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.02,-0.04,0.001 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.008,-0.052,0.03 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.005,-0.036,0.025 +TiRex,FlowState,0.604,0.416,0.792,0.092,-0.007,0.199 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.026,-0.048,0.091 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.051,0.022,0.082 +TiRex,TFT,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.09,0.035,0.139 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.158 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.41,0.643 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.174,-0.091 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.122,-0.174,-0.082 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.113,-0.154,-0.079 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.072,-0.105,-0.043 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.079,-0.139,-0.034 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.024,-0.064,0.011 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.02,-0.06,0.018 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.459,-0.015,-0.05,0.021 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.003,-0.046,0.034 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.005,-0.026,0.034 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.097,-0.01,0.212 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.031,-0.053,0.097 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.055,0.013,0.092 +TS-ICL,TFT,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.094,0.023,0.156 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.07,0.174 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.411,0.642 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.248,-0.431,-0.116 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.242,-0.419,-0.114 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.232,-0.409,-0.103 @@ -177,13 +194,13 @@ FlowState,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.344,-0.083 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.134,-0.281,-0.021 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.129,-0.272,-0.016 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.124,-0.254,-0.019 -FlowState,TiRex,0.396,0.208,0.584,-0.102,-0.249,0.007 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.111,-0.267,-0.007 +FlowState,TiRex,0.396,0.208,0.584,-0.102,-0.249,0.007 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.107,-0.269,0.01 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.073,-0.193,0.014 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.479,0.292,0.667,-0.046,-0.171,0.056 FlowState,TFT,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.003,-0.118,0.092 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.003,-0.088,0.087 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.028,-0.069,0.11 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.479,0.348,0.605 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.164,-0.24,-0.093 @@ -194,13 +211,13 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.114,-0.168,-0.064 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.057,-0.117,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.052,-0.108,0.011 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.048,-0.115,0.024 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.027,-0.1,0.046 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.035,-0.101,0.028 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.027,-0.1,0.046 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.032,-0.108,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.068,-0.014,0.162 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.025,-0.042,0.098 TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.792,0.583,0.917,0.065,0.01,0.126 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.071,0.005,0.144 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.094,0.03,0.162 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.391,0.638 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.194,-0.27,-0.129 @@ -211,13 +228,13 @@ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.142,-0.219,-0.084 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.084,-0.131,-0.04 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.079,-0.125,-0.032 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.075,-0.104,-0.048 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.054,-0.09,-0.023 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.062,-0.123,-0.01 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.054,-0.09,-0.023 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.058,-0.101,-0.013 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.521,0.333,0.708,0.044,-0.059,0.146 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.026,-0.108,0.04 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.041,-0.014,0.091 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.047,0.009,0.088 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.667,0.917,0.071,0.037,0.111 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.382,0.622 TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.245,-0.336,-0.162 @@ -228,32 +245,15 @@ TFT,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.191,-0.266,-0.118 TFT,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.13,-0.195,-0.067 TFT,Toto-2.0-4m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.125,-0.182,-0.073 TFT,TiRex-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.121,-0.176,-0.069 -TFT,TiRex,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.099,-0.162,-0.037 TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.107,-0.184,-0.04 +TFT,TiRex,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.099,-0.162,-0.037 +TFT,TS-ICL,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.104,-0.185,-0.024 TFT,FlowState,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.003,-0.101,0.106 TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.208,0.083,0.417,-0.07,-0.145,-0.01 TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.043,-0.1,0.014 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TFT,citras-fm,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.006,-0.055,0.063 TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.031,-0.018,0.084 TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.48,0.353,0.605 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.253,-0.362,-0.166 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.247,-0.35,-0.163 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.336,-0.154 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.19,-0.271,-0.121 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.199,-0.298,-0.123 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.137,-0.219,-0.07 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.133,-0.205,-0.072 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.19,-0.081 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.106,-0.184,-0.052 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.115,-0.211,-0.038 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.003,-0.096,0.081 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.076,-0.168,-0.005 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.049,-0.096,-0.009 -citras-fm,TFT,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.006,-0.067,0.053 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.025,-0.019,0.069 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.477,0.342,0.614 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.386,-0.205 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.376,-0.198 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.361,-0.19 @@ -262,13 +262,13 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.314,-0.158 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.167,-0.233,-0.106 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.162,-0.223,-0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.205,-0.111 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.134,-0.188,-0.083 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.143,-0.217,-0.078 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.134,-0.188,-0.083 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.139,-0.21,-0.075 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.312,0.146,0.5,-0.029,-0.124,0.065 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.104,-0.193,-0.031 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.083,0.333,-0.076,-0.125,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.032,-0.091,0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.026,-0.074,0.019 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.464,0.336,0.589 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.396,-2.196,-0.92 @@ -279,12 +279,12 @@ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.293,-2.033,-0.842 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.176,-1.896,-0.731 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.166,-1.877,-0.727 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.157,-1.844,-0.728 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.115,-1.799,-0.695 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.132,-1.771,-0.729 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.115,-1.799,-0.695 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.124,-1.79,-0.698 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.919,-1.533,-0.535 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.762,-0.641 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.007,-1.647,-0.618 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.925,-1.533,-0.546 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.913,-1.594,-0.521 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.865,-1.431,-0.507 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index c64f4b92564272456dfe2394e54ebf2349454df8..35fbc56e9d2a16ddc49fd4bfce2f6599995148dd 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -10,9 +10,9 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.103,0.058,0.162 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.071,0.157 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.116,0.072,0.172 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.114,0.035,0.194 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.114,0.06,0.167 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.132,0.089,0.184 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.116,0.028,0.19 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.179,0.118,0.242 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.154,0.106,0.203 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.134,0.256 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.379,0.536 @@ -27,9 +27,9 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.093,0.057,0.138 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.099,0.068,0.138 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.107,0.069,0.153 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.104,0.022,0.188 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.105,0.058,0.149 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.082,0.168 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.107,0.014,0.178 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.115,0.232 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.105,0.186 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.131,0.244 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.375,0.527 @@ -44,9 +44,9 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.102,0.048,0.17 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.107,0.066,0.154 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.115,0.062,0.183 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.112,0.045,0.192 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.113,0.055,0.176 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.13,0.076,0.194 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.115,0.038,0.177 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.177,0.117,0.236 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.152,0.1,0.212 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.19,0.128,0.259 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.374,0.538 @@ -61,9 +61,9 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.059,0.023,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.065,0.025,0.111 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.073,0.036,0.114 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.07,-0.029,0.166 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.071,0.035,0.103 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.089,0.046,0.13 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.073,-0.034,0.147 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.138,0.089,0.193 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.112,0.076,0.144 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.151,0.101,0.208 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.357,0.506 @@ -78,9 +78,9 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.072,0.014,0.154 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.078,0.031,0.134 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.032,0.169 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.084,0.027,0.154 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.084,0.018,0.163 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.102,0.045,0.179 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.086,0.029,0.139 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.15,0.075,0.23 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.125,0.063,0.2 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.093,0.245 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.356,0.517 @@ -95,9 +95,9 @@ Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.024,-0.012,0.052 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.729,0.542,0.875,0.03,-0.017,0.075 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.038,0.005,0.07 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.036,-0.086,0.136 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.036,-0.003,0.073 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.055,0.014,0.094 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.038,-0.085,0.115 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.043,0.175 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.079,0.038,0.112 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.12,0.063,0.18 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.332,0.489 @@ -112,9 +112,9 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.005,-0.042,0.035 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.011,-0.037,0.054 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.019,-0.023,0.054 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.017,-0.106,0.119 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.017,-0.03,0.06 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.036,-0.014,0.078 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.019,-0.104,0.095 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.088,0.017,0.164 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.061,0.008,0.101 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.102,0.037,0.17 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.32,0.479 @@ -129,9 +129,9 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.417,0.793,0.006,-0.04,0.046 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.015,0.001,0.031 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.625,0.457,0.792,0.012,-0.117,0.119 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.012,-0.039,0.053 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.032,-0.002,0.063 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.015,-0.134,0.108 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.084,0.019,0.159 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.056,0.026,0.085 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.098,0.046,0.158 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.317,0.471 @@ -146,9 +146,9 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.375,0.207,0.583,-0.006,-0.049,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.037,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.688,0.5,0.855,0.006,-0.091,0.095 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.006,-0.057,0.056 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.026,-0.032,0.075 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.008,-0.102,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.078,0.018,0.144 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.051,-0.003,0.099 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.092,0.041,0.148 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.39,0.31,0.47 @@ -163,9 +163,9 @@ TiRex,TiRex-2,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.015,-0.032,-0.001 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.056,0.035 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,FlowState,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.003,-0.132,0.098 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.667,0.458,0.833,-0.002,-0.062,0.04 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.018,-0.01,0.044 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.583,0.917,-0.0,-0.154,0.093 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.07,-0.0,0.148 TiRex,citras-fm,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.042,0.006,0.074 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.085,0.033,0.141 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.385,0.308,0.467 @@ -180,12 +180,29 @@ FlowState,TiRex-2,0.375,0.208,0.543,-0.012,-0.135,0.105 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.145,0.5,-0.006,-0.105,0.084 FlowState,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.003,-0.108,0.117 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.0,-0.116,0.105 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.604,0.396,0.792,0.02,-0.079,0.129 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.003,-0.1,0.08 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.073,-0.063,0.184 FlowState,citras-fm,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.045,-0.068,0.148 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.087,0.003,0.184 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.387,0.298,0.473 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.129,-0.201,-0.063 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.117,-0.175,-0.062 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.127,-0.214,-0.058 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.076,-0.115,-0.037 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.092,-0.194,-0.019 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.037,-0.079,0.003 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.017,-0.064,0.029 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.013,-0.056,0.037 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.006,-0.06,0.054 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.333,0.167,0.542,0.002,-0.042,0.059 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.0,-0.118,0.104 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.02,-0.033,0.072 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.002,-0.117,0.076 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.045,0.015,0.077 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.087,0.035,0.146 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.319,0.461 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.152,-0.225,-0.097 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.139,-0.201,-0.089 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.15,-0.241,-0.083 @@ -197,9 +214,9 @@ Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.033,-0.068,0.002 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.027,-0.081,0.031 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.018,-0.046,0.01 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.396,0.208,0.604,-0.021,-0.149,0.073 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.02,-0.078,0.032 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.018,-0.167,0.083 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.054,-0.022,0.143 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.025,-0.014,0.064 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.542,0.854,0.068,0.018,0.135 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.374,0.293,0.452 @@ -214,29 +231,12 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.015,-0.121,0.118 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.009,-0.088,0.093 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.417,0.0,-0.103,0.134 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.003,-0.087,0.091 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.002,-0.082,0.105 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.018,-0.09,0.143 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.07,-0.023,0.17 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.042,-0.057,0.154 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.085,-0.016,0.201 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.385,0.294,0.483 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.217,-0.319,-0.134 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.302,-0.13 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.215,-0.309,-0.132 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.16,-0.24,-0.097 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.177,-0.299,-0.081 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.212,-0.045 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.097,-0.196,-0.017 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.092,-0.189,-0.019 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.085,-0.169,-0.018 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.076,-0.174,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.079,-0.226,0.06 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.057,-0.168,0.022 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.076,-0.205,0.023 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.375,0.167,0.543,-0.03,-0.102,0.029 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.015,-0.071,0.091 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.254,0.433 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.182,-0.255,-0.119 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.169,-0.229,-0.117 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.18,-0.269,-0.111 @@ -248,9 +248,9 @@ citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.06,-0.093,-0.027 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.053,-0.11,0.003 citras-fm,TiRex,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.044,-0.08,-0.006 citras-fm,FlowState,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.047,-0.173,0.064 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.047,-0.083,-0.016 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.026,-0.068,0.014 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.044,-0.182,0.054 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.457,0.833,0.029,-0.03,0.093 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.044,-0.004,0.101 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.358,0.279,0.44 @@ -265,9 +265,9 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.109,-0.188,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.102,-0.173,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.092,-0.165,-0.034 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.095,-0.225,-0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.095,-0.172,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.292,0.146,0.458,-0.073,-0.156,-0.018 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.092,-0.252,0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.016,-0.1,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.046,-0.112,0.004 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.328,0.255,0.4 @@ -282,9 +282,9 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.891,-0.464 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.64,-0.885,-0.449 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.626,-0.875,-0.445 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.63,-0.899,-0.425 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.857,-0.467 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.597,-0.825,-0.415 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.626,-0.935,-0.416 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.764,-0.34 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.557,-0.786,-0.388 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.489,-0.667,-0.342 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv index a83faa7b6163f77e3e3c322d75527cf5393a1d8c..e66f1e7ff18af0b226e368b6216973444120fb34 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -9,11 +9,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.062,0.174 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.113,0.062,0.18 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.126,0.081,0.178 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.084,0.199 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.068,0.183 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.046,0.208 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.125,0.042,0.201 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.162,0.112,0.226 Toto-2.0-1B,PatchTST,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.203,0.104,0.294 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.192,0.138,0.251 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.181,0.299 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.537,0.702 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.004,-0.017,0.01 @@ -26,11 +26,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.178 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.109,0.051,0.189 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.075,0.178 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.13,0.073,0.206 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.119,0.062,0.188 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.122,0.05,0.204 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.749,1.0,0.122,0.049,0.19 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.159,0.101,0.23 Toto-2.0-2.5B,PatchTST,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.2,0.11,0.287 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.189,0.131,0.255 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.175,0.301 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.622,0.534,0.703 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.01,-0.031,0.008 @@ -43,11 +43,11 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.059,0.153 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.104,0.06,0.159 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.078,0.164 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.08,0.182 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.113,0.073,0.159 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.117,0.026,0.202 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.117,0.027,0.192 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.154,0.109,0.207 Toto-2.0-313m,PatchTST,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.195,0.091,0.286 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.139,0.233 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.178,0.286 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.531,0.699 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.049,-0.086,-0.018 @@ -60,11 +60,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.068,0.035,0.105 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.069,0.025,0.118 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.083,0.043,0.13 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.091,0.048,0.142 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.079,0.041,0.115 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.082,-0.017,0.174 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.082,-0.02,0.159 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.121,0.073,0.169 Toto-2.0-22m,PatchTST,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.163,0.043,0.262 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.152,0.105,0.195 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.2,0.148,0.254 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.513,0.689 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.046,-0.085,-0.005 @@ -77,11 +77,11 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.07,0.005,0.154 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.071,0.011,0.162 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.085,0.032,0.149 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.093,0.035,0.184 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.081,0.012,0.171 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.085,0.024,0.159 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.084,0.02,0.144 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.123,0.058,0.212 Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.166,0.074,0.257 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.154,0.086,0.24 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.13,0.286 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.606,0.517,0.691 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.111,-0.184,-0.062 @@ -94,11 +94,11 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.013,-0.005,0.035 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.014,-0.025,0.044 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.028,-0.023,0.077 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.037,0.006,0.068 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.024,-0.018,0.06 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.688,0.5,0.875,0.028,-0.102,0.132 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.028,-0.109,0.115 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.667,0.958,0.069,0.029,0.107 Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.114,-0.032,0.232 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.102,0.057,0.139 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.152,0.099,0.209 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.484,0.667 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.126,-0.211,-0.066 @@ -111,11 +111,11 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.667,0.458,0.875,0.001,-0.046,0.032 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.016,-0.033,0.059 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.025,-0.02,0.06 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.012,-0.037,0.054 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.015,-0.12,0.122 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.015,-0.118,0.098 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.057,0.006,0.101 Toto-2.0-4m,PatchTST,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.102,-0.04,0.224 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.09,0.034,0.135 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.141,0.083,0.2 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.478,0.664 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.127,-0.22,-0.066 @@ -128,11 +128,11 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.125,0.542,-0.001,-0.034,0.044 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.015,-0.034,0.057 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.024,0.005,0.043 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.01,-0.038,0.047 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.667,0.499,0.875,0.014,-0.129,0.124 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.582,0.917,0.014,-0.149,0.117 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.056,0.025,0.086 TiRex-2,PatchTST,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.101,-0.057,0.22 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.089,0.056,0.123 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.14,0.093,0.192 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.477,0.663 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.144,-0.216,-0.088 @@ -145,11 +145,11 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.016,-0.062,0.032 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.015,-0.06,0.033 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.041,0.061 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.625,0.417,0.792,-0.004,-0.067,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.646,0.458,0.833,-0.0,-0.105,0.092 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.667,0.458,0.833,-0.001,-0.121,0.082 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.042,-0.014,0.094 TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.088,-0.026,0.185 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.076,0.017,0.129 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.078,0.178 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.569,0.475,0.66 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.249,-0.091 @@ -162,13 +162,30 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.025,-0.064,0.019 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.024,-0.045,-0.005 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.065,0.04 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.014,-0.072,0.03 TiRex,FlowState,0.604,0.417,0.792,-0.01,-0.156,0.1 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.708,0.5,0.875,-0.01,-0.178,0.095 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.033,0.003,0.064 TiRex,PatchTST,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.08,-0.08,0.206 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.067,0.03,0.103 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.119,0.072,0.172 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.466,0.651 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.139,-0.225,-0.073 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.134,-0.232,-0.066 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.128,-0.189,-0.079 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.086,-0.129,-0.043 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.088,-0.207,-0.012 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.025,-0.064,0.018 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.012,-0.057,0.036 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.011,-0.05,0.037 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.208,0.583,0.004,-0.048,0.063 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.013,-0.031,0.067 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.004,-0.128,0.116 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.004,-0.133,0.09 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.046,-0.002,0.093 +TS-ICL,PatchTST,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.092,-0.057,0.205 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.131,0.086,0.184 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.479,0.658 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.262,-0.048 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.139,-0.256,-0.052 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.132,-0.254,-0.027 @@ -179,11 +196,11 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.016,-0.14,0.107 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.333,0.125,0.501,-0.014,-0.141,0.114 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.354,0.167,0.542,0.0,-0.101,0.095 FlowState,TiRex,0.396,0.208,0.583,0.01,-0.112,0.135 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.004,-0.132,0.113 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.0,-0.106,0.08 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.042,-0.064,0.16 FlowState,PatchTST,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.088,-0.028,0.191 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.076,-0.041,0.189 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.128,0.039,0.23 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.476,0.66 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.143,-0.251,-0.044 @@ -196,11 +213,11 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.015,-0.109,0.105 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.418,-0.014,-0.133,0.129 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.167,0.542,0.001,-0.089,0.108 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.292,0.125,0.5,0.01,-0.105,0.151 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.004,-0.099,0.117 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.0,-0.087,0.096 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.042,-0.075,0.177 TabPFN-TS-3,PatchTST,0.625,0.417,0.793,0.089,-0.001,0.175 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.076,-0.034,0.194 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.128,0.022,0.246 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.462,0.674 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.193,-0.292,-0.126 @@ -213,11 +230,11 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.06,-0.113,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.059,-0.094,-0.026 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.043,-0.104,0.014 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.034,-0.068,-0.003 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.048,-0.102,0.002 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.044,-0.19,0.06 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.044,-0.215,0.07 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.542,0.333,0.708,0.049,-0.126,0.176 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.036,0.0,0.07 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.792,0.958,0.09,0.044,0.153 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.451,0.641 PatchTST,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.254,-0.416,-0.116 @@ -230,30 +247,13 @@ PatchTST,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.114,-0.289,0.039 PatchTST,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.113,-0.281,0.054 PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.097,-0.227,0.026 PatchTST,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.086,-0.259,0.074 +PatchTST,TS-ICL,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.101,-0.257,0.053 PatchTST,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.097,-0.236,0.027 PatchTST,TabPFN-TS-3,0.375,0.207,0.583,-0.097,-0.212,0.001 PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.458,0.292,0.667,-0.051,-0.214,0.112 PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,citras-fm,0.625,0.457,0.792,-0.014,-0.16,0.139 PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.043,-0.083,0.177 PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.528,0.408,0.643 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.237,-0.336,-0.161 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.233,-0.343,-0.151 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.304,-0.161 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.18,-0.243,-0.117 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.182,-0.316,-0.094 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.113,-0.162,-0.06 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.099,-0.156,-0.035 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.098,-0.14,-0.059 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.082,-0.148,-0.017 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.072,-0.115,-0.031 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.082,-0.232,0.04 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.083,-0.24,0.033 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.037,-0.075,-0.0 -citras-fm,PatchTST,0.375,0.208,0.543,0.013,-0.162,0.138 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.056,0.008,0.115 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.534,0.422,0.631 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.426,-0.221 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.432,-0.212 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.4,-0.216 @@ -264,11 +264,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.164,-0.25,-0.091 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.163,-0.237,-0.102 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.104,0.0,0.25,-0.146,-0.216,-0.084 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.135,-0.208,-0.077 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.151,-0.226,-0.094 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.146,-0.298,-0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.147,-0.327,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.042,0.208,-0.098,-0.181,-0.046 Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.045,-0.214,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.059,-0.129,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.401,0.604 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.656,-2.361,-1.16 @@ -281,10 +281,10 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.36,-1.972,-0.914 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.357,-1.967,-0.912 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.323,-1.938,-0.904 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-1.867,-0.874 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.332,-1.922,-0.921 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.323,-1.938,-0.909 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.324,-2.072,-0.858 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.784,-0.822 Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.118,-1.802,-0.69 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.147,-1.707,-0.731 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.526,-0.668 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 25f1b544c12d5b325ee00c61c0e84e67085795ea..b3bf7234a3998f94a2a6d49af161d5fc0337893a 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,80.88235294117648,31.481794532616647,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,74.15966386554624,26.888347680019187,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,73.73949579831934,29.30238904127842,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.31932773109246,26.529000829572613,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,68.90756302521011,29.02842238953067,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.01680672268908,26.2613718955641,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.80672268907564,31.327236702620056,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,64.07563025210085,25.889827140254518,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,63.235294117647065,23.254765824716216,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,62.815126050420176,22.984208182264997,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,61.344537815126046,22.637076808066325,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,59.87394957983193,22.328859024649184,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,55.46218487394958,24.789294465195354,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,48.52941176470589,19.060503607694656,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,48.31932773109244,22.50810792219715,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -LightGBM,47.689075630252105,19.424419840917306,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,47.47899159663865,22.08813691407505,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,46.00840336134455,20.323639513575344,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,46.00840336134454,15.365349853640797,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,39.70588235294118,11.575817377996056,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.07563025210084,19.73153058692736,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -TFT,33.8235294117647,11.478442698254343,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,31.30252100840335,9.328552794565127,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.831932773109244,7.8038443922430645,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,29.411764705882348,3.6737220568101803,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 -Naive,27.100840336134457,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,27.100840336134457,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,19.32773109243697,6.623132074170468,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,17.647058823529413,-1.4487951659928555,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.52738336713998,31.481794532616647,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,73.63083164300205,26.888347680019187,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,73.22515212981749,29.30238904127842,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.02231237322518,26.529000829572613,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,68.76267748478703,29.02842238953067,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,66.7342799188641,26.2613718955641,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,66.53144016227183,31.327236702620056,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,64.70588235294117,27.59393641404799,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,63.48884381338743,25.889827140254518,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,62.880324543610556,23.254765824716216,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,62.27180527383367,22.984208182264997,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,61.4604462474645,22.637076808066325,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,59.43204868154158,22.328859024649184,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,55.172413793103445,24.789294465195354,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,47.870182555780936,22.50810792219715,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +CatBoost,47.66734279918865,19.060503607694656,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,46.855983772819485,19.424419840917306,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,46.855983772819464,22.08813691407505,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,45.23326572008114,15.365349853640797,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,45.03042596348885,20.323639513575344,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,39.35091277890467,11.575817377996056,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.33671399594319,19.73153058692736,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +TFT,33.062880324543606,11.478442698254343,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,30.628803245436092,9.328552794565127,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,29.208924949290054,7.8038443922430645,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,28.60040567951318,3.6737220568101803,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,26.57200811359027,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Naive,26.572008113590268,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,19.066937119675455,6.623132074170468,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,17.24137931034483,-1.4487951659928555,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 89621e364f06dea440440ed9a88bd5156fdbfc33..8c30ca1d9ba7f2a4d9783a5071c3dab396e59b76 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,86.34453781512606,43.084958270862664,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,79.20168067226892,39.405460726883256,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.94117647058825,41.299866988194935,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,74.36974789915968,38.664211906090074,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,73.73949579831933,38.52365982502688,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,71.6386554621849,42.35612034793553,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,70.37815126050421,38.692030967773526,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.16806722689077,41.160694873508554,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,66.38655462184875,35.32909998910938,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,66.38655462184873,36.05068561273137,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,65.12605042016807,35.636340061546576,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,62.815126050420155,37.895505694084896,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,60.50420168067227,35.349544776717664,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.99159663865546,34.96939098084367,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.781512605042025,33.821929615033476,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,51.89075630252101,34.85996673088817,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,45.378151260504204,26.73938300302533,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,38.445378151260506,-34.43610797176,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 -TFT,38.0252100840336,22.621784862461645,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.924369747899156,17.16572553901449,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,34.87394957983192,28.136628738197324,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,28.57142857142857,17.267343579809324,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,27.941176470588232,19.019958490681464,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.680672268907564,18.59747321381262,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,25.840336134453786,17.63932213207273,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,22.47899159663865,17.55615896535253,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 -Naive,15.651260504201675,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.651260504201675,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.873949579831931,-0.4347989849139422,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,86.00405679513186,43.084958270862664,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.70182555780936,39.405460726883256,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex-2,77.48478701825559,41.299866988194935,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,73.83367139959434,38.664211906090074,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,73.42799188640974,38.52365982502688,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,71.19675456389454,42.35612034793553,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,69.9797160243408,41.160694873508554,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,69.7768762677485,38.692030967773526,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,67.54563894523325,39.17636203783326,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,65.92292089249491,36.05068561273137,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,65.72008113590265,35.32909998910938,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,64.70588235294117,35.636340061546576,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,62.27180527383367,37.895505694084896,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,60.04056795131846,35.349544776717664,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,53.14401622718054,34.96939098084367,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,52.33265720081136,33.821929615033476,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.91277890466531,34.85996673088817,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,44.42190669371197,26.73938300302533,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,37.931034482758626,-34.43610797176,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +TFT,37.32251521298174,22.621784862461645,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,35.09127789046652,17.16572553901449,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,34.279918864097354,28.136628738197324,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,27.789046653144016,17.267343579809324,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,27.180527383367135,19.019958490681464,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.963488843813387,18.59747321381262,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,25.354969574036513,17.63932213207273,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,21.90669371196754,17.55615896535253,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,15.111561866125756,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.111561866125756,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Drift,9.533468559837726,-0.4347989849139422,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 9f6dfe6685536c434eb9b9961744570c6a877b5c..c671f8d597b39c4be7bd13986dea38affdc41e39 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,77.10084033613445,33.03316692519685,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,72.68907563025212,32.32308539844251,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.79831932773111,33.438886395349634,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,70.16806722689077,29.344351413797543,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.53781512605045,27.337794703817952,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex,67.43697478991598,27.268322990213434,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,67.01680672268908,27.225822018524802,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,66.80672268907564,23.819769303955763,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,66.59663865546219,23.233386381595977,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,62.815126050420176,22.905821520524828,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,62.184873949579824,27.390292701614747,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,59.87394957983192,22.397407154652036,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,55.25210084033614,25.511572546660254,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,48.109243697479,20.497180048122175,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,48.109243697479,15.743427255370591,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,47.478991596638664,18.79828207637473,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,47.268907563025216,21.04711295786791,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,46.63865546218487,22.905411310963697,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,42.22689075630251,20.1359458252089,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,41.80672268907564,10.43217176176322,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.23529411764706,19.87985257056947,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -TFT,35.294117647058826,11.954978540056816,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,32.98319327731091,7.846798607353877,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,31.5126050420168,8.270941698425682,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,29.411764705882348,8.876970964384812,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 -Naive,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,21.848739495798313,7.573422520076656,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,20.79831932773109,-1.4181754344372743,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,76.47058823529413,33.03316692519685,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,72.41379310344828,32.32308539844251,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,70.38539553752537,33.438886395349634,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,69.7768762677485,29.344351413797543,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,69.16835699797163,27.337794703817952,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,67.342799188641,27.268322990213434,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,66.73427991886409,27.225822018524802,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,66.53144016227182,23.819769303955763,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,65.92292089249496,23.233386381595977,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,64.0973630831643,27.954715568142095,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,62.47464503042598,22.905821520524828,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,61.66328600405679,27.390292701614747,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,59.83772819472616,22.397407154652036,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,55.57809330628803,25.511572546660254,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,47.261663286004065,15.743427255370591,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,47.058823529411775,20.497180048122175,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,46.85598377281948,18.79828207637473,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,46.65314401622718,21.04711295786791,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,45.841784989858006,22.905411310963697,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,41.379310344827594,10.43217176176322,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,41.37931034482757,20.1359458252089,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.52535496957403,19.87985257056947,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +TFT,34.88843813387423,11.954978540056816,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,32.04868154158214,7.846798607353877,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,30.831643002028393,8.270941698425682,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,28.803245436105467,8.876970964384812,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,24.543610547667342,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Naive,24.543610547667342,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,21.501014198782954,7.573422520076656,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,20.486815415821503,-1.4181754344372743,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index aa6c634c7b869d831d17d71f0c0734297b1a3ed5..4c3fd9b56a9bc40abfc8ae84c179d9b02742ecaa 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.08403361344537,46.95158936079286,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,76.26050420168069,46.345857459827535,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,73.52941176470591,46.72017347554517,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,72.47899159663866,43.43301992727873,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,72.47899159663865,42.70528893148189,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex,71.42857142857144,41.67846999298524,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,71.218487394958,42.724582618425885,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.74789915966387,42.48537652282024,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,68.06722689075629,39.285983729057214,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,67.43697478991596,39.13030672361548,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,65.96638655462185,39.001072214937274,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.28571428571426,41.41815251527837,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,63.0252100840336,38.49349413751175,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.67226890756303,38.60017726853074,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.04201680672269,37.1406752463905,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,47.6890756302521,36.392630928433256,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.957983193277315,28.908180959678987,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,37.39495798319327,31.759173884046564,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,36.9747899159664,-38.47401261888097,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 -TFT,36.55462184873949,25.177535871366572,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.08403361344538,23.593149014732116,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,29.621848739495793,22.612749623523154,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,28.57142857142857,20.408513143079997,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,27.310924369747898,20.28922812580427,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,26.260504201680668,20.741160739642595,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,23.319327731092436,20.882679434165496,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 -Naive,15.861344537815123,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.861344537815123,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.815126050420167,-0.2604826516168668,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,84.38133874239352,46.95158936079286,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,76.06490872210956,46.345857459827535,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,73.42799188640977,46.72017347554517,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,72.00811359026372,43.43301992727873,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,72.0081135902637,42.70528893148189,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,71.19675456389453,41.67846999298524,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,70.79107505070998,42.724582618425885,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,69.16835699797161,42.48537652282024,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,67.54563894523325,39.285983729057214,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,66.7342799188641,39.13030672361548,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,65.72008113590262,39.001072214937274,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,65.31440162271804,42.30715931304623,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,64.09736308316427,41.41815251527837,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,62.880324543610534,38.49349413751175,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.76673427991887,38.60017726853074,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.158215010141994,37.1406752463905,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,46.85598377281947,36.392630928433256,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,44.21906693711968,28.908180959678987,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,36.71399594320488,-38.47401261888097,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,36.71399594320486,31.759173884046564,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +TFT,35.6997971602434,25.177535871366572,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,34.27991886409736,23.593149014732116,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,29.00608519269776,22.612749623523154,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,27.586206896551722,20.408513143079997,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,26.77484787018255,20.28922812580427,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.5578093306288,20.741160739642595,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,22.718052738336713,20.882679434165496,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,15.517241379310342,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.517241379310342,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.576064908722106,-0.2604826516168668,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv index b6fad8d83aa03167b272f4ab2d88aff69f66be0c..58121cfcd724a0ac5a7e07f5b2879cbd873b1c1b 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,-0.01,0.138 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.067,-0.014,0.151 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,-0.01,0.138 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.031,-0.02,0.088 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.035,-0.013,0.084 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.002,-0.06,0.068 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.075,0.014,0.147 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.014,0.137 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.075,0.014,0.147 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.107,0.048,0.178 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.054,0.002,0.111 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.11,0.044,0.184 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.114,0.048,0.193 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.118,0.059,0.184 -Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.153,0.033,0.263 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.089,0.026,0.157 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.116,0.024,0.198 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.315,0.207,0.413 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.16,0.01 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.005,-0.031,0.04 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.034,-0.136,0.059 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.03,-0.147,0.061 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.065,-0.191,0.053 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.013,-0.071,0.088 -FlowState,TiRex,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.009,-0.039,0.053 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.047,-0.016,0.109 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.051,-0.013,0.111 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.055,-0.001,0.108 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.059,0.004,0.117 -FlowState,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.097,-0.022,0.216 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.028,-0.02,0.073 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.057,-0.015,0.135 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.269,0.175,0.368 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.072,-0.177,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.005,-0.042,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.005,-0.042,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.039,-0.138,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.035,-0.159,0.05 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.07,-0.208,0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.009,-0.079,0.085 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.046,0.044 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.009,-0.079,0.085 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.043,-0.004,0.102 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.015,-0.148,0.092 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.046,-0.003,0.097 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.05,0.015,0.089 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.054,0.013,0.102 -TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.092,-0.018,0.194 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.023,-0.016,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.528,0.882,0.052,-0.005,0.109 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.17,0.36 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.16,0.01 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.005,-0.031,0.04 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.034,-0.136,0.059 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.03,-0.147,0.061 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.065,-0.191,0.053 +FlowState,TiRex,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.009,-0.039,0.053 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.013,-0.071,0.088 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.047,-0.016,0.109 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.01,-0.137,0.1 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.051,-0.013,0.111 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.055,-0.001,0.108 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.059,0.004,0.117 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.028,-0.02,0.073 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.057,-0.015,0.135 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.269,0.175,0.368 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.032,-0.097,0.02 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.033,-0.063,0.12 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.038,-0.046,0.121 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.033,-0.063,0.12 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.064,0.056 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.029,-0.108,0.044 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.046,-0.062,0.131 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.041,-0.021,0.114 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.046,-0.062,0.131 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.079,0.011,0.15 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.024,-0.016,0.064 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.082,0.009,0.152 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.009,0.166 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.09,0.027,0.155 -TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.127,0.031,0.212 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.06,-0.021,0.137 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.088,0.03,0.158 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.293,0.185,0.393 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.036,-0.092,0.013 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.029,-0.065,0.128 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.034,-0.053,0.137 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.029,-0.065,0.128 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.06,0.06 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.033,-0.089,0.01 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.043,0.133 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.038,-0.039,0.135 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.043,0.133 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.075,-0.017,0.175 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.02,-0.056,0.088 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.078,-0.016,0.178 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.083,-0.005,0.178 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.001,0.179 -TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.123,-0.019,0.253 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.056,-0.018,0.147 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.084,-0.014,0.191 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.29,0.168,0.396 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.002,-0.074,0.056 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.061,-0.056,0.16 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.065,-0.043,0.172 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.061,-0.056,0.16 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.029,-0.046,0.098 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.032,-0.01,0.082 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.073,-0.003,0.161 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.069,-0.018,0.161 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.073,-0.003,0.161 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.105,-0.012,0.21 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.052,-0.028,0.119 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.108,-0.014,0.217 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.112,-0.002,0.217 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,0.007,0.216 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.152,0.014,0.275 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.087,-0.005,0.174 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.114,0.006,0.219 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.313,0.175,0.425 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.082,-0.172,-0.014 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.014,-0.097,0.066 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.009,-0.093,0.073 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.048,-0.151,0.058 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.153,0.041 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.079,-0.192,0.003 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.005,-0.065,0.055 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.034,-0.036,0.104 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.038,-0.041,0.123 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.03,0.13 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.046,-0.021,0.12 -citras-fm,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.084,-0.051,0.208 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.015,-0.047,0.068 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.044,-0.052,0.141 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.259,0.127,0.373 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.158,-0.014 -TiRex,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.009,-0.056,0.037 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.046,0.044 +TiRex,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.009,-0.056,0.037 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.129,0.021 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.039,-0.155,0.037 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.074,-0.191,0.018 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.005,-0.058,0.061 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.005,-0.058,0.061 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.039,-0.01,0.09 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.018,-0.121,0.057 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.012,0.099 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.047,0.002,0.103 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.051,0.013,0.09 -TiRex,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.089,-0.006,0.179 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.02,-0.019,0.053 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.048,0.003,0.097 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.263,0.158,0.367 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.082,-0.172,-0.014 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.009,-0.093,0.073 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.014,-0.097,0.066 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.048,-0.151,0.058 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.153,0.041 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.079,-0.192,0.003 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.005,-0.065,0.055 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.034,-0.036,0.104 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.024,-0.138,0.079 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.038,-0.041,0.123 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.03,0.13 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.046,-0.021,0.12 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.015,-0.047,0.068 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.044,-0.052,0.141 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.259,0.127,0.373 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.12,-0.216,-0.051 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.05,-0.123,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.045,-0.113,0.004 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.05,-0.123,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.086,-0.176,-0.011 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.081,-0.213,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.118,-0.266,0.012 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.036,-0.116,0.034 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.041,-0.099,0.01 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.036,-0.116,0.034 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.06,-0.173,0.025 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.004,-0.012,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.008,-0.023,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.012,-0.009,0.031 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.052,-0.071,0.153 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.528,0.882,-0.02,-0.082,0.026 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.01,-0.071,0.071 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.233,0.122,0.336 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.057,-0.125,-0.002 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.014,-0.101,0.129 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.01,-0.111,0.12 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.024,-0.068,0.016 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.02,-0.097,0.053 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.054,-0.135,0.027 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.018,-0.061,0.108 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.023,-0.086,0.121 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.057,-0.025,0.148 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.06,-0.028,0.153 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.064,-0.03,0.165 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.068,-0.008,0.15 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.037,-0.057,0.135 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.066,-0.017,0.156 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.276,0.156,0.387 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.124,-0.225,-0.046 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.053,-0.125,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.048,-0.107,0.003 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.053,-0.125,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.089,-0.179,-0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.216,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.121,-0.277,0.014 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.039,-0.14,0.039 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.044,-0.11,0.012 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.039,-0.14,0.039 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.004,-0.025,0.012 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.064,-0.181,0.027 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.004,-0.015,0.024 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.008,-0.015,0.029 -Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.048,-0.079,0.153 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.024,-0.086,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.006,-0.075,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.23,0.126,0.329 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.129,-0.239,-0.05 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.058,-0.121,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.053,-0.097,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.058,-0.121,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.199,-0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.09,-0.217,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.127,-0.277,0.002 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.149,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.049,-0.115,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.149,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.008,-0.04,0.023 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.068,-0.198,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.005,-0.025,0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.004,-0.026,0.029 -Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.044,-0.081,0.153 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.029,-0.079,0.014 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.002,-0.075,0.068 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.226,0.126,0.324 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.134,-0.226,-0.063 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.062,-0.132,-0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.057,-0.113,-0.014 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.062,-0.132,-0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.099,-0.183,-0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.218,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.276,-0.007 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.048,-0.136,0.02 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.053,-0.099,-0.013 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.048,-0.136,0.02 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.012,-0.032,0.009 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.073,-0.177,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.009,-0.03,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.004,-0.03,0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.04,-0.076,0.139 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.033,-0.083,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.002,-0.066,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.223,0.12,0.322 -CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.181,-0.357,-0.035 -CatBoost,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.107,-0.276,0.022 -CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.102,-0.241,0.018 -CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.145,-0.269,-0.032 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.14,-0.339,0.018 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.179,-0.379,-0.014 -CatBoost,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.092,-0.263,0.049 -CatBoost,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.098,-0.218,0.006 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.055,-0.181,0.066 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.051,-0.181,0.073 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.046,-0.18,0.075 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.042,-0.161,0.071 -CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.076,-0.221,0.032 -CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.044,-0.128,0.025 -CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.191,0.06,0.306 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.098,-0.186,-0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.029,-0.078,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.024,-0.063,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.029,-0.078,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.064,-0.159,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.06,-0.173,0.018 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.095,-0.21,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.015,-0.073,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.02,-0.056,0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.015,-0.073,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.472,0.02,-0.027,0.076 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.039,-0.155,0.054 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.023,-0.029,0.079 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.028,-0.014,0.073 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.032,-0.008,0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.071,-0.033,0.181 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.324,0.735,0.029,-0.02,0.098 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.342 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.131,-0.248,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.06,-0.155,0.014 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.472,-0.055,-0.122,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.06,-0.155,0.014 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.096,-0.187,-0.031 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.092,-0.236,0.014 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.128,-0.28,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.046,-0.165,0.049 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.051,-0.107,-0.003 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.046,-0.165,0.049 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.01,-0.077,0.067 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.07,-0.185,0.016 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.006,-0.075,0.07 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.002,-0.073,0.07 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.002,-0.055,0.062 -Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.043,-0.025,0.114 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.265,0.676,-0.03,-0.108,0.02 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.225,0.112,0.328 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.459,-0.705,-0.26 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.368,-0.582,-0.212 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.368,-0.582,-0.212 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.414,-0.646,-0.227 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.409,-0.655,-0.201 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.456,-0.74,-0.213 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.349,-0.595,-0.145 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.349,-0.595,-0.145 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.303,-0.507,-0.138 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.381,-0.632,-0.185 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.298,-0.491,-0.144 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.293,-0.478,-0.144 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.287,-0.474,-0.136 -Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.235,-0.442,-0.063 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.33,-0.521,-0.172 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.29,-0.488,-0.126 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv index 875f4bbee0cac42407a2ab81a4fee5cf8e395b54..ef6aa914c448ceafcaa8a221a8aab2a82f000704 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -4,15 +4,15 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.061,-0.011,0.135 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.03,-0.018,0.085 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.074,0.006,0.138 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.072,0.024,0.128 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.072,0.017,0.133 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.013,-0.036,0.062 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.072,0.017,0.133 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.033,-0.01,0.076 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.12,0.057,0.188 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.116,0.056,0.18 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.064,0.02,0.113 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.11,0.051,0.177 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.084,0.024,0.141 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.12,0.065,0.18 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.14,0.075,0.214 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.125,0.042,0.201 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.065,-0.157,0.011 @@ -20,15 +20,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.032,-0.122,0.043 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.014,-0.019,0.049 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.012,-0.027,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.012,-0.072,0.088 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.051,-0.168,0.039 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.012,-0.072,0.088 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.03,-0.136,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.063,0.004,0.13 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.059,0.017,0.109 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.105,0.096 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.052,0.019,0.09 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.024,-0.016,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.063,0.026,0.108 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.084,0.01,0.154 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.068,0.012,0.126 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.031,-0.093,0.017 @@ -36,15 +36,15 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.031,-0.044,0.109 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.045,-0.037,0.12 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.015,0.109 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.057,0.122 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.018,-0.086,0.04 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.057,0.122 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.002,-0.063,0.052 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.092,0.019,0.164 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.088,0.022,0.152 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.035,-0.001,0.072 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.082,0.013,0.15 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.055,-0.024,0.126 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.092,0.033,0.15 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.113,0.055,0.175 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.097,0.045,0.163 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.298,0.508 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.08,-0.16,-0.006 @@ -52,15 +52,15 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.015,-0.052,0.019 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.047,-0.136,0.035 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.043,0.034 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.091,0.074 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.066,-0.179,0.032 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.091,0.074 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.045,-0.146,0.04 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.049,-0.024,0.119 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.045,-0.02,0.1 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.011,-0.119,0.088 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.039,-0.018,0.084 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.01,-0.044,0.062 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.049,-0.005,0.1 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.071,-0.019,0.152 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.055,-0.018,0.13 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.279,0.479 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.078,-0.147,-0.025 @@ -68,63 +68,63 @@ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.012,-0.048,0.026 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.045,-0.122,0.015 TiRex,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.035,0.042 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.0,-0.063,0.056 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.064,-0.167,0.016 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.0,-0.063,0.056 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.042,-0.14,0.025 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.052,-0.003,0.102 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.047,0.002,0.09 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.008,-0.094,0.059 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.041,0.0,0.082 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.012,-0.027,0.045 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.051,0.022,0.081 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.073,0.021,0.129 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.057,0.007,0.111 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.077,-0.154,-0.017 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.012,-0.096,0.067 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.044,-0.139,0.054 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.08,0.083 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.0,-0.06,0.059 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.064,-0.165,0.014 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.042,-0.137,0.037 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.052,-0.018,0.119 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.047,-0.021,0.123 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.041,-0.025,0.115 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.013,-0.05,0.06 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.052,-0.006,0.119 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.074,0.006,0.154 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.057,-0.038,0.159 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.387,0.27,0.491 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.013,-0.066,0.034 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.049,-0.04,0.144 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.018,-0.041,0.079 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.062,-0.033,0.152 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.06,-0.016,0.143 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.06,-0.014,0.142 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.06,-0.014,0.142 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.02,-0.014,0.053 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.109,0.008,0.211 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.104,0.01,0.199 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.052,-0.009,0.112 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.099,0.003,0.19 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.072,-0.002,0.152 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.108,0.019,0.195 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.129,0.042,0.219 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.114,0.017,0.21 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.424,0.304,0.525 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.077,-0.154,-0.017 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.012,-0.096,0.067 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.044,-0.139,0.054 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.08,0.083 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.0,-0.06,0.059 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.064,-0.165,0.014 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.042,-0.137,0.037 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.052,-0.018,0.119 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.047,-0.021,0.123 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.008,-0.104,0.08 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.041,-0.025,0.115 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.013,-0.05,0.06 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.052,-0.006,0.119 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.057,-0.038,0.159 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.387,0.27,0.491 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.034,-0.083,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.029,-0.049,0.12 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.002,-0.055,0.059 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.043,-0.041,0.127 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.041,-0.026,0.123 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.04,-0.039,0.121 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.021,-0.056,0.014 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.04,-0.039,0.121 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.09,0.002,0.189 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.086,0.006,0.172 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.033,-0.032,0.091 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.08,0.001,0.163 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.053,-0.016,0.135 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.09,0.02,0.169 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.111,0.02,0.201 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.095,0.003,0.194 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.294,0.513 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.136,-0.231,-0.061 @@ -132,15 +132,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.067,-0.15,-0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.102,-0.196,-0.019 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.052,-0.135,0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.054,-0.114,0.003 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.055,-0.135,0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.122,-0.267,-0.008 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.055,-0.135,0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.099,-0.233,-0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.005,-0.035,0.026 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.063,-0.168,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.011,-0.053,0.029 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.041,-0.116,0.019 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.0,-0.048,0.036 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.023,-0.053,0.098 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.528,0.882,0.006,-0.081,0.082 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.353,0.23,0.462 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.131,-0.22,-0.06 @@ -148,31 +148,47 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.062,-0.123,-0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.096,-0.179,-0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.047,-0.111,0.02 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.049,-0.099,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.05,-0.141,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.117,-0.248,-0.01 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.05,-0.141,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.094,-0.208,-0.006 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.005,-0.027,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.058,-0.161,0.024 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.006,-0.023,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.036,-0.097,0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.004,-0.029,0.03 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.027,-0.051,0.098 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.01,-0.066,0.077 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.356,0.239,0.459 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.069,-0.127,-0.02 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.106,0.095 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.036,-0.078,0.001 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.011,-0.097,0.106 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.008,-0.062,0.086 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.055,-0.126,0.009 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.008,-0.087,0.094 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.034,-0.101,0.031 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.059,-0.017,0.144 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.055,-0.024,0.138 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.049,-0.034,0.139 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.021,-0.062,0.107 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.059,-0.01,0.134 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.065,-0.006,0.146 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.272,0.494 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.124,-0.215,-0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.055,-0.099,-0.019 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.089,-0.176,-0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.04,-0.092,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.043,-0.089,-0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.043,-0.13,0.025 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.109,-0.234,-0.003 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.043,-0.13,0.025 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.087,-0.195,-0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.011,-0.03,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.006,-0.007,0.023 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.051,-0.161,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.03,-0.079,0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.011,-0.018,0.034 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.044,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.017,-0.057,0.084 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.252,0.459 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.091,-0.164,-0.025 @@ -180,15 +196,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.058,-0.144,0.023 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.01,-0.066,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.013,-0.047,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.013,-0.064,0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.077,-0.179,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.013,-0.064,0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.055,-0.156,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.04,-0.02,0.104 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.035,-0.015,0.088 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.021,-0.119,0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.029,-0.016,0.073 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.039,-0.002,0.086 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,0.001,0.126 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.045,-0.006,0.118 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.136,-0.219,-0.069 @@ -196,47 +212,31 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.067,-0.121,-0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.101,-0.177,-0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.052,-0.112,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.054,-0.089,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.055,-0.135,0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.122,-0.242,-0.02 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.055,-0.135,0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.099,-0.204,-0.02 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.0,-0.038,0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.004,-0.031,0.028 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.063,-0.155,0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.011,-0.035,0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.041,-0.094,0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.023,-0.035,0.085 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.529,0.882,0.006,-0.057,0.063 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.353,0.239,0.452 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.163,-0.272,-0.081 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.092,-0.181,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.127,-0.212,-0.058 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.076,-0.179,0.019 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.079,-0.148,-0.021 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.079,-0.182,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.148,-0.28,-0.043 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.125,-0.251,-0.021 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.023,-0.108,0.05 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.028,-0.109,0.048 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.115,0.043 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.144,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.024,-0.093,0.034 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.08,0.039 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.338,0.23,0.436 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.143,-0.252,-0.044 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.073,-0.144,-0.012 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.108,-0.195,-0.047 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.058,-0.15,0.018 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.06,-0.125,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.061,-0.189,0.037 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.128,-0.267,-0.017 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.061,-0.189,0.037 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.105,-0.241,-0.003 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.472,-0.006,-0.09,0.075 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.01,-0.083,0.062 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.069,-0.171,0.006 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.017,-0.092,0.054 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.047,-0.134,0.006 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.118,0.471,-0.006,-0.067,0.054 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.017,-0.04,0.074 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.35,0.225,0.453 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468 @@ -244,14 +244,14 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.704,-1.033,-0.425 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-0.92,-0.387 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.631,-0.966,-0.37 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.735,-1.104,-0.437 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.631,-0.966,-0.37 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.7,-1.054,-0.417 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.546,-0.857,-0.299 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.554,-0.848,-0.313 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.644,-0.977,-0.373 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-0.847,-0.337 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.547,-0.825,-0.315 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.774,-0.298 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.538,-0.829,-0.291 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index a139d8625a4e64d5c147a4ceb5b35a20ce14da89..e9783842b38c5ab18e1b2a237df7321c398b1da4 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -9,11 +9,11 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.121,0.046,0.2 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.128,0.046,0.21 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.08,0.023,0.154 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.131,0.054,0.214 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.07,0.014,0.132 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.078,0.014,0.153 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.137,0.061,0.216 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,0.008,0.183 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.205,0.042,0.342 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.158,0.089,0.232 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.33,0.175,0.45 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.011,-0.067,0.039 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -25,11 +25,11 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.112,0.016,0.213 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.118,0.019,0.217 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.07,0.017,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.122,0.027,0.218 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.061,-0.011,0.123 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.068,-0.018,0.161 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.128,0.037,0.217 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.091,0.009,0.189 TabPFN-TS-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.197,0.036,0.331 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.149,0.064,0.235 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.323,0.181,0.441 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.006,-0.036,0.045 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.016,-0.013,0.047 @@ -41,11 +41,11 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.126,0.021,0.228 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.133,0.022,0.237 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.085,0.018,0.155 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.137,0.031,0.234 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.076,0.013,0.141 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.083,0.006,0.175 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.142,0.043,0.237 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.106,0.009,0.206 TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.21,0.051,0.345 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.163,0.076,0.254 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.334,0.18,0.452 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.055,-0.17,0.052 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.044,-0.173,0.063 @@ -57,11 +57,11 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.073,-0.015,0.165 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.08,-0.009,0.17 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.029,-0.106,0.151 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.084,-0.003,0.172 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.118,0.149 FlowState,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.027,-0.054,0.115 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.09,0.015,0.169 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.051,-0.011,0.111 FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.161,-0.003,0.308 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.111,0.017,0.202 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.293,0.17,0.407 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.085,-0.208,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.074,-0.211,0.019 @@ -73,11 +73,11 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.046,-0.017,0.13 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.053,-0.012,0.134 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.002,-0.124,0.107 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.057,-0.002,0.133 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.009,-0.145,0.107 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.083,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.064,0.013,0.132 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.025,-0.018,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.138,-0.021,0.285 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.086,0.004,0.159 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.383 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.086,-0.181,-0.01 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.075,-0.198,0.009 @@ -89,11 +89,11 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.045,-0.008,0.101 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.053,-0.007,0.112 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.107,0.087 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.057,0.001,0.116 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.01,-0.116,0.077 TiRex,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.002,-0.065,0.054 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.019,0.111 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.024,-0.025,0.068 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,-0.009,0.28 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.085,0.029,0.137 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.141,0.389 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.138,-0.251,-0.048 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.126,-0.27,-0.016 @@ -105,11 +105,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.008,-0.007,0.028 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.047,-0.146,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.012,-0.007,0.035 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.057,-0.184,0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.049,-0.13,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.018,-0.013,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.023,-0.116,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.096,-0.093,0.262 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.042,-0.027,0.109 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.238,0.068,0.367 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.146,-0.267,-0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.134,-0.277,-0.02 @@ -121,11 +121,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.008,-0.029,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.055,-0.151,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.006,0.014 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.066,-0.199,0.041 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.057,-0.16,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.011,-0.015,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.031,-0.122,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.089,-0.108,0.261 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.034,-0.042,0.105 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.232,0.069,0.362 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.087,-0.182,-0.023 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.075,-0.135,-0.017 @@ -137,11 +137,11 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.045,-0.022,0.127 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.052,-0.014,0.131 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.056,-0.012,0.138 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.01,-0.096,0.055 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.118,0.099 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.062,-0.0,0.141 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.023,-0.088,0.128 TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.136,-0.049,0.289 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.085,0.001,0.166 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.272,0.111,0.391 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.151,-0.272,-0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.139,-0.28,-0.028 @@ -153,12 +153,28 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.012,-0.036,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.014,0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.059,-0.159,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.07,-0.207,0.038 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.062,-0.16,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.007,-0.017,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.035,-0.121,0.038 Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.085,-0.109,0.257 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.03,-0.047,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.229,0.069,0.357 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.076,-0.152,-0.014 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.065,-0.141,0.011 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.082,-0.164,-0.014 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.02,-0.175,0.105 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.008,-0.12,0.126 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.009,-0.083,0.104 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.054,-0.044,0.155 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.062,-0.043,0.166 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.01,-0.059,0.087 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.065,-0.039,0.172 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.008,-0.098,0.11 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.072,-0.024,0.168 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.033,-0.083,0.138 +TS-ICL,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.145,-0.003,0.278 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.28,0.119,0.413 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.084,-0.181,-0.014 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.073,-0.191,0.018 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.091,-0.212,-0.006 @@ -169,11 +185,11 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.047,-0.021,0.115 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.054,-0.021,0.138 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.11,0.105 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.058,-0.012,0.138 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.008,-0.123,0.089 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.064,-0.002,0.145 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.025,-0.046,0.082 citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.138,-0.016,0.281 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.087,0.028,0.158 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.274,0.12,0.396 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.159,-0.275,-0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.147,-0.277,-0.038 @@ -185,11 +201,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.019,-0.047,0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.011,-0.035,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.066,-0.165,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.007,-0.029,0.016 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.077,-0.202,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.069,-0.169,0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.042,-0.117,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.079,-0.103,0.243 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.024,-0.043,0.087 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.224,0.075,0.347 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.112,-0.225,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.101,-0.233,-0.009 @@ -201,11 +217,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.022,-0.052,0.104 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.03,-0.047,0.108 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.024,-0.147,0.081 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.034,-0.039,0.108 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.034,-0.16,0.077 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.026,-0.089,0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.04,-0.024,0.105 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,-0.03,0.257 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.063,0.002,0.127 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.255,0.129,0.366 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.258,-0.521,-0.043 Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.245,-0.496,-0.037 @@ -217,28 +233,12 @@ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.106,-0.355,0.085 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.098,-0.353,0.097 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.158,-0.407,0.047 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.093,-0.345,0.098 +Stat. Ensemble,TS-ICL,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.169,-0.385,0.003 Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.16,-0.391,0.015 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-22m,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.086,-0.321,0.094 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.346,0.029 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.06,-0.229,0.073 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.157,0.049,0.277 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.187,-0.303,-0.097 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.175,-0.307,-0.069 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.194,-0.34,-0.082 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.125,-0.253,-0.017 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.094,-0.188,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.093,-0.159,-0.03 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.044,-0.122,0.027 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.036,-0.118,0.04 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.092,-0.199,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.031,-0.115,0.045 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.095,-0.187,-0.029 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.024,-0.095,0.041 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.067,-0.146,-0.002 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.056,-0.078,0.186 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.205,0.064,0.323 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.493,-0.817,-0.213 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.478,-0.789,-0.22 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.502,-0.826,-0.219 @@ -249,9 +249,9 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.313,-0.58,-0.073 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.303,-0.567,-0.074 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.374,-0.641,-0.125 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.297,-0.556,-0.074 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.388,-0.704,-0.135 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.377,-0.655,-0.136 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.289,-0.53,-0.081 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.342,-0.578,-0.148 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.187,-0.383,-0.051 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.258,-0.476,-0.068 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 33b1d275137a9f2950d5512416316e9190a2ddf0..6dae46c03b7ae415e16e3ed226257aee6ce6e016 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -3,255 +3,255 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.011,-0.039,0.066 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.004,-0.042,0.052 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,-0.033,0.139 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.09,0.029,0.154 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,-0.013,0.155 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.09,0.029,0.154 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.074,0.013,0.138 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.078,0.021,0.149 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.128,0.058,0.2 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.126,0.056,0.198 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.13,0.058,0.202 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.081,0.023,0.141 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.138,0.067,0.209 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.094,0.007,0.17 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.136,0.042,0.219 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.156,0.083,0.229 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.011,-0.071,0.038 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.032,0.018 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.051,-0.05,0.145 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.08,0.008,0.159 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.064,-0.013,0.154 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.08,0.008,0.159 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.063,-0.015,0.145 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.067,0.02,0.113 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.119,0.03,0.215 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,0.03,0.205 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.12,0.036,0.206 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.07,-0.007,0.132 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.128,0.049,0.208 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.084,0.001,0.174 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.126,0.029,0.227 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.146,0.056,0.233 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.463,0.345,0.563 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.004,-0.055,0.041 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.018,0.031 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.051,0.154 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.006,0.171 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.07,-0.02,0.164 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.006,0.171 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.07,-0.005,0.156 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.074,0.018,0.127 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.125,0.027,0.223 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.122,0.029,0.214 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.127,0.034,0.216 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.706,0.529,0.882,0.076,0.006,0.145 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.134,0.046,0.223 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.001,0.184 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.132,0.025,0.236 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.152,0.057,0.243 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.467,0.343,0.569 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.162,0.032 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.054,-0.17,0.047 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.062,-0.182,0.049 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.03,-0.018,0.087 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.013,-0.031,0.055 +FlowState,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.03,-0.018,0.087 FlowState,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.012,-0.07,0.099 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.016,-0.101,0.128 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.071,-0.021,0.168 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.068,-0.02,0.155 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.073,-0.013,0.156 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.02,-0.096,0.139 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.08,0.008,0.153 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.042,0.103 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.079,0.003,0.164 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.1,-0.001,0.196 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.434,0.317,0.535 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.099,-0.182,-0.03 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.087,-0.19,-0.008 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.095,-0.206,-0.006 -TiRex,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.031,-0.095,0.018 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.058,0.013 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.078,0.032 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.014,-0.11,0.062 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.01,0.103 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.039,-0.01,0.087 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.044,-0.003,0.091 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.052,0.017,0.089 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.004,-0.049,0.05 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.05,-0.016,0.112 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.072,0.01,0.134 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.183,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.068,-0.182,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.075,-0.197,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.013,-0.059,0.03 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.013,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.013,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.0,-0.07,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.105,0.095 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.059,-0.007,0.147 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.056,-0.002,0.13 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.061,0.005,0.13 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.007,-0.111,0.108 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.068,0.021,0.127 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.022,-0.021,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.067,0.003,0.131 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.089,0.008,0.164 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.099,-0.182,-0.03 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.087,-0.19,-0.008 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.095,-0.206,-0.006 +TiRex,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.031,-0.095,0.018 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.058,0.013 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.078,0.032 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.014,-0.11,0.062 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.01,0.103 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.039,-0.01,0.087 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.044,-0.003,0.091 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.011,-0.11,0.072 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.052,0.017,0.089 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.004,-0.049,0.05 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.05,-0.016,0.112 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.08,-0.16,-0.013 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.067,-0.169,0.015 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.075,-0.184,0.005 citras-fm,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.013,-0.11,0.066 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.033,0.072 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.0,-0.077,0.065 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.033,0.072 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.099,0.1 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.059,-0.009,0.125 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.01,0.123 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.061,-0.004,0.129 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.007,-0.094,0.096 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.069,0.009,0.138 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.022,-0.04,0.07 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.067,-0.018,0.16 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.089,0.027,0.165 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.427,0.308,0.53 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.084,-0.176,-0.021 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.072,-0.128,-0.02 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.079,-0.146,-0.018 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.017,-0.146,0.092 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.014,-0.066,0.099 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.105,0.095 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.014,-0.066,0.099 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.112,0.09 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.176,0.588,0.055,-0.021,0.135 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.053,-0.01,0.127 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.057,-0.009,0.131 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.08,0.072 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.065,0.005,0.137 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.018,-0.09,0.12 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.063,-0.049,0.164 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.085,-0.007,0.169 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.425,0.292,0.529 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.147,-0.251,-0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.134,-0.273,-0.031 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.142,-0.286,-0.028 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.076,-0.202,0.02 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.114,0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.062,-0.172,0.007 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.114,0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.063,-0.143,0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.647,0.412,0.824,-0.058,-0.156,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.003,-0.027,0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.002,-0.032,0.036 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.055,-0.167,0.043 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.01,-0.033,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.039,-0.146,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.009,-0.106,0.094 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.032,-0.051,0.109 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.391,0.24,0.508 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.145,-0.246,-0.06 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.132,-0.258,-0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.14,-0.273,-0.03 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.073,-0.183,0.02 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.041,-0.096,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.06,-0.15,0.002 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.041,-0.096,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.06,-0.14,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.056,-0.145,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.003,-0.023,0.027 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.005,-0.009,0.017 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.052,-0.17,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.013,-0.015,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.036,-0.132,0.037 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.011,-0.093,0.093 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.047,0.11 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.393,0.249,0.509 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.15,-0.253,-0.062 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.137,-0.259,-0.037 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.145,-0.275,-0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.078,-0.185,0.013 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.046,-0.1,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.065,-0.15,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.046,-0.1,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.065,-0.148,0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.061,-0.151,0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.002,-0.038,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.005,-0.017,0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.057,-0.184,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.008,-0.016,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.041,-0.13,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.007,-0.1,0.093 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.03,-0.057,0.109 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.39,0.252,0.503 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.088,-0.164,-0.023 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.075,-0.152,0.007 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.471,-0.083,-0.169,-0.006 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.02,-0.161,0.088 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.007,-0.121,0.1 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.011,-0.078,0.099 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.007,-0.106,0.086 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.077,0.074 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.052,-0.045,0.143 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.05,-0.046,0.145 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.054,-0.045,0.156 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.062,-0.029,0.15 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.015,-0.09,0.111 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.06,-0.02,0.148 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.423,0.286,0.532 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.159,-0.264,-0.072 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.146,-0.263,-0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.154,-0.287,-0.048 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.087,-0.181,-0.008 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.055,-0.098,-0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.074,-0.146,-0.022 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.055,-0.098,-0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.074,-0.161,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.069,-0.158,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.01,-0.051,0.032 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.013,-0.037,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.008,-0.032,0.016 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.066,-0.176,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.05,-0.129,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.529,0.882,-0.002,-0.095,0.073 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.022,-0.052,0.093 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.385,0.254,0.492 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.104,-0.205,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.092,-0.21,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.225,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.036,-0.115,0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.004,-0.052,0.047 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.022,-0.074,0.02 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.004,-0.052,0.047 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.023,-0.075,0.039 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.019,-0.136,0.082 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.038,-0.038,0.127 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.035,-0.038,0.117 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.04,-0.03,0.115 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.015,-0.124,0.082 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.048,-0.016,0.114 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.046,-0.017,0.122 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.068,0.003,0.137 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.157,-0.28,-0.043 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.144,-0.293,-0.03 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.152,-0.31,-0.026 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.196,-0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.053,-0.127,0.016 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.072,-0.15,-0.003 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.053,-0.127,0.016 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.072,-0.191,0.017 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.068,-0.197,0.047 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.009,-0.104,0.095 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.011,-0.103,0.085 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.007,-0.103,0.091 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.064,-0.174,0.019 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.118,0.471,0.002,-0.079,0.087 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.048,-0.139,0.017 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.023,-0.038,0.079 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.386,0.258,0.495 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.185,-0.298,-0.091 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.172,-0.304,-0.059 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.18,-0.321,-0.06 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.111,-0.244,0.001 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.078,-0.154,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.097,-0.196,-0.008 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.097,-0.198,-0.028 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.093,-0.203,0.007 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.033,-0.122,0.049 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.124,0.045 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.03,-0.123,0.054 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.022,-0.102,0.049 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.073,-0.159,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.024,-0.085,0.036 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.371,0.247,0.476 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.864,-1.289,-0.527 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.877,-1.323,-0.523 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.768,-1.152,-0.464 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.746,-1.126,-0.445 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.739,-1.124,-0.413 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.643,-1.034,-0.316 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.647,-1.038,-0.331 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.639,-1.01,-0.337 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.733,-1.136,-0.401 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.626,-0.97,-0.341 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.629,-0.978,-0.347 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.591,-0.907,-0.328 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv index d662b97c385a8c5e19b1a7e46031a29b46fa138e..6f35d41e5cc00d81774f4f0840ca119a003acb4a 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,81.0,35.49604805949068,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.25,32.5393249088468,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.21428571428571,32.387834625003144,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.07142857142856,33.74349114336882,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.0357142857143,32.103467905355906,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.28571428571428,30.012261653781213,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.85714285714285,30.608733044317482,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.39285714285714,30.19759066683737,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,62.642857142857146,30.56231268455708,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,62.42857142857143,27.82962523446033,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 -citras-fm,60.785714285714285,29.329473045675424,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.35714285714286,28.232968102451405,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,56.01785714285714,29.834438056726754,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,55.75,28.03661927932215,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.071428571428584,27.22464946284655,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.714285714285715,26.515147822937145,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,44.99999999999999,23.692356407414938,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.39285714285714,24.74621402790721,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -LightGBM,42.42857142857144,21.69219430463617,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,39.35714285714286,16.442674540572565,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 -TFT,37.62500000000001,20.478801720010832,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,33.39285714285714,18.365235176937922,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,31.267857142857142,17.520543454298565,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 -AutoARIMA,28.32142857142857,11.626047486251256,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 -AutoETS,28.196428571428573,2.258981624201861,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,26.39285714285714,10.988470150572827,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.857142857142852,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.321428571428573,-16.673948829260542,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.571428571428573,-18.139203863942367,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.86206896551722,35.49604805949068,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.99999999999999,32.5393249088468,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.9310344827586,32.387834625003144,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,76.86206896551724,33.74349114336882,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,74.96551724137933,32.103467905355906,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.89655172413792,30.012261653781213,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,67.68965517241378,30.608733044317482,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.96551724137932,30.19759066683737,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.965517241379324,31.112805324307402,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,62.31034482758619,30.56231268455708,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,61.79310344827586,27.82962523446033,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +citras-fm,60.13793103448276,29.329473045675424,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,56.827586206896555,28.232968102451405,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,55.603448275862064,29.834438056726754,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,55.3103448275862,28.03661927932215,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.41379310344828,27.22464946284655,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.103448275862064,26.515147822937145,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,44.206896551724135,23.692356407414938,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.758620689655174,24.74621402790721,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +LightGBM,41.75862068965518,21.69219430463617,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,38.6896551724138,16.442674540572565,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +TFT,37.01724137931035,20.478801720010832,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,32.79310344827585,18.365235176937922,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,30.741379310344826,17.520543454298565,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoETS,27.8448275862069,2.258981624201861,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,27.68965517241379,11.626047486251256,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +AutoTheta,25.89655172413793,10.988470150572827,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.517241379310342,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Naive,14.034482758620687,-16.673948829260542,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.413793103448274,-18.139203863942367,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv index ca796121762152455a56f251157f3e5dc0517af7..cb76f2f0415d9dd2aa000dbb15105aa3956b2d80 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.14285714285715,47.28056092394619,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,80.96428571428571,45.49902087737486,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.10714285714286,44.42079033843436,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.42857142857143,44.43401764205588,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,77.57142857142857,44.2259025848964,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.57142857142858,42.57610771086986,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,71.10714285714285,42.906973730643784,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.89285714285714,42.20062123896394,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,65.46428571428572,43.14992977468493,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,63.535714285714285,41.1775589747051,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.25000000000001,39.910953970691175,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 -Toto-1.0,61.03571428571427,40.75545607156532,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,59.964285714285715,40.711208003360944,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.73214285714285,41.48655788811914,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.85714285714285,39.3137408355856,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,55.035714285714285,38.89296155238764,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 -TFT,41.714285714285715,32.179160778195325,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,37.357142857142854,33.42287700575167,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.285714285714285,20.65501241734049,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 -PatchTST,36.17857142857142,30.08894584013384,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,35.05357142857142,29.083502888132696,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 -AutoARIMA,31.678571428571438,21.30413459295425,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 -AutoETS,26.66071428571429,-26.81852698010143,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 -CatBoost,26.42857142857143,22.997503309584754,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,24.535714285714285,20.97912784353272,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,21.428571428571427,5.457380346204543,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.607142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.410714285714283,-45.39898892506442,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.999999999999997,-45.77585382275593,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.89655172413792,47.28056092394619,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.72413793103448,45.49902087737486,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.79310344827584,44.42079033843436,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,79.13793103448276,44.43401764205588,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,77.27586206896552,44.2259025848964,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,73.13793103448276,42.57610771086986,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,70.72413793103449,42.906973730643784,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,69.34482758620689,42.20062123896394,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,65.75862068965516,43.114760468834355,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,64.96551724137932,43.14992977468493,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,62.793103448275865,41.1775589747051,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,62.55172413793104,39.910953970691175,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +Toto-1.0,60.241379310344826,40.75545607156532,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,59.51724137931036,40.711208003360944,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.08620689655171,41.48655788811914,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.06896551724139,39.3137408355856,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,54.137931034482754,38.89296155238764,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +TFT,40.93103448275862,32.179160778195325,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,36.48275862068965,33.42287700575167,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,35.51724137931034,20.65501241734049,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +PatchTST,35.482758620689644,30.08894584013384,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,34.39655172413792,29.083502888132696,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,30.89655172413794,21.30413459295425,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +AutoETS,26.224137931034484,-26.81852698010143,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +CatBoost,25.724137931034484,22.997503309584754,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,23.96551724137931,20.97912784353272,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,20.96551724137931,5.457380346204543,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.206896551724135,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.155172413793101,-45.39898892506442,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.896551724137928,-45.77585382275593,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index d1460c71299075b1474ea693ca74014888993539..f0538187dd1ad2f017de9923774b386c6d72cb07 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,79.21428571428571,36.5373020731926,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.21428571428571,36.655476599492175,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,78.78571428571429,39.409805837073975,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,77.07142857142857,36.18019120000263,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,74.39285714285715,37.013893240142316,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,68.64285714285715,34.552959974412325,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.32142857142858,33.71926320465137,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,66.92857142857143,33.56017085610355,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,65.53571428571428,35.88702911767603,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.499999999999986,33.12206767654865,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 -citras-fm,60.14285714285713,33.228576848601165,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.80357142857143,34.85338837192187,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 -Toto-1.0,58.03571428571429,31.521347579266624,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,54.142857142857146,31.003497455653605,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.57142857142857,30.623849383137735,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.46428571428571,29.7700644245001,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.85714285714287,27.263435635951726,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -CatBoost,42.42857142857142,25.513623085529268,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,41.178571428571416,23.22107212878407,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 -TFT,38.410714285714285,22.701418498964355,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.10714285714285,19.45356301921389,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 -PatchTST,34.32142857142856,21.454006198599707,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,30.696428571428573,20.00208736844964,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 -AutoETS,28.553571428571427,4.328689696857202,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 -AutoARIMA,27.607142857142858,13.59923382668422,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 -AutoTheta,24.571428571428573,13.794755051782015,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.42857142857143,-6.11148885263364,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.857142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 -Drift,14.214285714285712,-8.604851831604222,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.0,36.655476599492175,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,78.99999999999999,36.5373020731926,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,78.72413793103449,39.409805837073975,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,77.03448275862068,36.18019120000263,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,74.24137931034484,37.013893240142316,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,68.51724137931035,34.552959974412325,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,67.0,33.71926320465137,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +TiRex,66.75862068965516,33.56017085610355,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,65.06896551724137,35.88702911767603,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.65517241379309,34.311830542228016,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,60.03448275862069,33.12206767654865,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +citras-fm,59.34482758620688,33.228576848601165,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.29310344827585,34.85338837192187,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Toto-1.0,57.44827586206897,31.521347579266624,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,53.72413793103449,31.003497455653605,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.89655172413793,30.623849383137735,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.93103448275862,29.7700644245001,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,42.172413793103466,27.263435635951726,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +CatBoost,41.689655172413794,25.513623085529268,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,40.517241379310335,23.22107212878407,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +TFT,37.810344827586206,22.701418498964355,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,37.41379310344826,19.45356301921389,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +PatchTST,33.82758620689655,21.454006198599707,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,30.120689655172413,20.00208736844964,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoETS,28.1551724137931,4.328689696857202,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,26.931034482758616,13.59923382668422,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +AutoTheta,24.06896551724138,13.794755051782015,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Naive,17.103448275862068,-6.11148885263364,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.517241379310345,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Drift,13.999999999999998,-8.604851831604222,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv index aed42e6357c2526e7ec50256e9e8bea663c8644a..f5f3179de027aad628e4c0ab7f520bac7240a399 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,81.82142857142856,51.51952214825128,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,81.14285714285715,49.24866297220161,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.92857142857142,49.216680021395334,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,78.96428571428571,48.96246297090489,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.74999999999999,49.541871830300074,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,72.0,47.667686183186916,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.92857142857144,46.66550397197716,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,69.82142857142858,48.823976057806895,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.5,46.725581728728585,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 -citras-fm,63.7857142857143,45.996803093015814,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.535714285714306,46.00575783181618,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.55357142857143,46.64627267107563,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 -Toto-1.0,60.92857142857143,45.020650430975195,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,58.32142857142857,44.71123966611387,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,57.071428571428584,43.85203108990482,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.50000000000001,43.187343942010905,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 -TFT,41.17857142857143,34.96909756614174,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.0,37.43731641740621,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -PatchTST,36.67857142857143,34.333137688827605,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.49999999999999,22.373149282241844,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 -DeepAR,34.125,32.57997581707056,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 -AutoARIMA,30.535714285714295,24.478385201079067,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 -CatBoost,27.607142857142858,26.618319920348675,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,27.285714285714285,24.359769443081024,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.767857142857146,-27.02677793164787,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,20.75,7.846425954475189,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.357142857142854,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.69642857142857,-39.12143349013901,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.964285714285713,-40.058509992498315,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.79310344827586,51.51952214825128,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,80.93103448275862,49.24866297220161,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.58620689655172,49.216680021395334,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,78.75862068965517,48.96246297090489,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,77.41379310344827,49.541871830300074,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,71.86206896551724,47.667686183186916,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.65517241379311,46.66550397197716,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,69.37931034482759,48.823976057806895,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,69.06896551724138,46.725581728728585,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,64.99999999999999,47.2334428820716,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,63.068965517241395,45.996803093015814,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,62.896551724137964,46.00575783181618,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.98275862068964,46.64627267107563,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Toto-1.0,60.310344827586206,45.020650430975195,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,57.79310344827585,44.71123966611387,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,56.31034482758621,43.85203108990482,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,53.62068965517241,43.187343942010905,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +TFT,40.31034482758622,34.96909756614174,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.034482758620705,37.43731641740621,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +PatchTST,36.0,34.333137688827605,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,33.75862068965515,22.373149282241844,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +DeepAR,33.258620689655174,32.57997581707056,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,29.793103448275875,24.478385201079067,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +CatBoost,26.793103448275858,26.618319920348675,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,26.551724137931032,24.359769443081024,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,24.5,-27.02677793164787,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +AutoTheta,20.275862068965516,7.846425954475189,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.999999999999998,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.46551724137931,-39.12143349013901,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.82758620689655,-40.058509992498315,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv index 13962e7accf7f8ab2872577f472e1804e37f0561..07ec89ff3a72924d0d5910c5c5677f063eb71e38 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -4,16 +4,16 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.044,0.014,0.073 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.53,0.43,0.62,0.046,0.015,0.076 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.026,0.006,0.048 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.05,0.019,0.079 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.67,0.57,0.76,0.07,0.042,0.099 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.078,0.052,0.108 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.076,0.048,0.103 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.67,0.57,0.76,0.07,0.042,0.099 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.071,0.046,0.098 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.106,0.07,0.146 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.064,0.043,0.085 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.087,0.062,0.117 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.101,0.073,0.133 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.081,0.055,0.108 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.101,0.073,0.133 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.104,0.076,0.135 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.114,0.087,0.142 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.122,0.096,0.15 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.355,0.318,0.393 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.046,-0.079,-0.014 @@ -21,16 +21,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.52,0.43,0.62,0.002,-0.003,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.55,0.45,0.65,-0.018,-0.053,0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.63,0.54,0.73,0.006,-0.001,0.015 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.028,0.018,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.67,0.58,0.75,0.036,0.014,0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.034,0.012,0.054 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.028,0.018,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.61,0.52,0.71,0.028,-0.021,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.065,0.028,0.108 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.62,0.8,0.021,-0.013,0.053 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.69,0.61,0.78,0.045,0.012,0.078 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.06,0.04,0.082 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.64,0.8,0.039,-0.006,0.083 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.06,0.04,0.082 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.063,0.044,0.082 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.81,0.74,0.88,0.073,0.046,0.103 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.082,0.054,0.11 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.325,0.284,0.37 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.47,0.38,0.57,-0.048,-0.082,-0.015 @@ -38,16 +38,16 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.48,0.38,0.57,-0.002,-0.008,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.02,-0.055,0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.004,-0.002,0.01 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.026,0.015,0.037 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.034,0.011,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.031,0.01,0.052 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.026,0.015,0.037 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.026,-0.023,0.074 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.063,0.026,0.106 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.019,-0.016,0.05 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.043,0.01,0.077 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.058,0.036,0.079 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.036,-0.009,0.082 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.058,0.036,0.079 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.06,0.04,0.08 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.071,0.043,0.102 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.08,0.051,0.108 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.324,0.282,0.368 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.44,0.34,0.54,-0.027,-0.05,-0.006 @@ -55,16 +55,16 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.35,0.55,0.018,-0.014,0.05 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.02,-0.012,0.052 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.49,0.39,0.59,0.024,-0.006,0.057 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.045,0.019,0.072 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.053,0.03,0.081 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.051,0.022,0.08 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.045,0.019,0.072 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.046,0.016,0.078 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.082,0.045,0.123 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.038,0.015,0.062 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.81,0.74,0.88,0.062,0.038,0.089 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.077,0.051,0.105 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.056,0.029,0.082 +TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.077,0.051,0.105 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.079,0.056,0.107 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.09,0.065,0.117 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.098,0.07,0.126 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.337,0.299,0.38 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.053,-0.086,-0.019 @@ -72,33 +72,50 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.37,0.27,0.46,-0.006,-0.015,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.004,-0.01,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.51,0.41,0.61,-0.025,-0.06,0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.022,0.013,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.03,0.008,0.053 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.027,0.008,0.048 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.022,0.013,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.022,-0.028,0.07 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.059,0.021,0.1 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.014,-0.022,0.048 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.039,0.006,0.071 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.054,0.032,0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.032,-0.014,0.077 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.054,0.032,0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.057,0.037,0.075 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.067,0.041,0.096 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.076,0.048,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.91,0.99,0.321,0.28,0.367 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.33,0.24,0.43,-0.076,-0.11,-0.044 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.029,-0.04,-0.018 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.026,-0.038,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.047,-0.078,-0.019 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.022,-0.032,-0.013 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.4,0.6,0.009,-0.009,0.028 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.54,0.44,0.63,0.006,-0.015,0.026 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.57,0.48,0.67,0.001,-0.048,0.048 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.039,0.003,0.079 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.63,0.54,0.73,-0.007,-0.041,0.025 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.018,-0.011,0.048 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.011,-0.031,0.054 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.033,0.016,0.052 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.036,0.022,0.049 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.056,0.028,0.08 +Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.306,0.266,0.351 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.085,-0.121,-0.055 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.33,0.25,0.42,-0.037,-0.065,-0.014 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.035,-0.063,-0.011 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.056,-0.088,-0.03 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.031,-0.057,-0.008 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.4,0.6,-0.009,-0.029,0.009 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.485,0.385,0.585,-0.003,-0.019,0.014 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.4,0.6,-0.009,-0.029,0.009 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.64,0.55,0.73,-0.008,-0.055,0.033 TiRex,FlowState,0.515,0.425,0.61,0.03,-0.001,0.067 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.57,0.47,0.66,-0.016,-0.052,0.015 TiRex,citras-fm,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.01,-0.013,0.034 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.53,0.72,0.025,0.003,0.045 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.55,0.75,0.003,-0.041,0.04 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.53,0.72,0.025,0.003,0.045 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.66,0.56,0.75,0.027,0.01,0.044 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.685,0.845,0.038,0.021,0.056 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.048,0.029,0.067 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.3,0.264,0.339 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.082,-0.115,-0.05 @@ -106,50 +123,33 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.035,-0.057,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.032,-0.055,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.054,-0.088,-0.023 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.028,-0.051,-0.008 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.46,0.37,0.56,-0.006,-0.026,0.015 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.515,0.415,0.615,0.003,-0.014,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.46,0.37,0.56,-0.006,-0.026,0.015 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.57,0.48,0.67,-0.005,-0.051,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.515,0.69,0.033,0.002,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.55,0.45,0.64,-0.013,-0.048,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.012,-0.017,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.59,0.505,0.68,0.027,0.005,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.005,-0.038,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.59,0.505,0.68,0.027,0.005,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.51,0.69,0.03,0.009,0.052 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.71,0.625,0.795,0.041,0.022,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.625,0.79,0.05,0.029,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.302,0.267,0.342 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.33,0.24,0.43,-0.076,-0.11,-0.044 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.029,-0.04,-0.018 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.026,-0.038,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.047,-0.078,-0.019 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.022,-0.032,-0.013 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.4,0.6,0.009,-0.009,0.028 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.54,0.44,0.63,0.006,-0.015,0.026 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.57,0.48,0.67,0.001,-0.048,0.048 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.039,0.003,0.079 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.018,-0.011,0.048 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.033,0.016,0.052 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.011,-0.031,0.054 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.036,0.022,0.049 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.047,0.022,0.072 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.056,0.028,0.08 -Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.306,0.266,0.351 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.076,-0.109,-0.048 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.39,0.29,0.48,-0.029,-0.082,0.02 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.027,-0.08,0.022 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.048,-0.084,-0.016 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.023,-0.075,0.028 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.43,0.33,0.52,-0.001,-0.051,0.046 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.36,0.27,0.45,0.008,-0.034,0.052 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.33,0.52,0.005,-0.039,0.049 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.43,0.33,0.52,-0.001,-0.051,0.046 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.4,0.6,0.038,-0.004,0.08 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.008,-0.045,0.026 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.52,0.43,0.62,0.017,-0.018,0.051 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.52,0.42,0.61,0.032,-0.015,0.076 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.01,-0.012,0.034 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.52,0.42,0.61,0.032,-0.015,0.076 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.52,0.43,0.61,0.035,-0.011,0.079 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.046,0.006,0.086 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.49,0.69,0.055,0.015,0.096 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.306,0.264,0.346 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.119,-0.171,-0.075 @@ -157,118 +157,118 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.07,-0.121,-0.029 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.067,-0.118,-0.026 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.089,-0.14,-0.047 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.063,-0.111,-0.021 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.04,-0.086,-0.003 FlowState,TiRex,0.485,0.39,0.575,-0.031,-0.071,0.001 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.31,0.485,-0.034,-0.075,-0.002 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.04,-0.086,-0.003 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.4,0.6,-0.039,-0.087,0.004 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.44,0.35,0.53,-0.048,-0.105,-0.001 FlowState,citras-fm,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.021,-0.053,0.011 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.48,0.67,-0.006,-0.049,0.034 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.46,0.66,-0.029,-0.076,0.012 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.48,0.67,-0.006,-0.049,0.034 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.57,0.47,0.67,-0.003,-0.046,0.032 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.56,0.465,0.65,0.008,-0.029,0.043 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.64,0.55,0.735,0.018,-0.013,0.046 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.278,0.234,0.322 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.068,-0.093,-0.045 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.2,0.38,-0.021,-0.055,0.013 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.019,-0.053,0.016 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.04,-0.066,-0.016 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.27,0.18,0.35,-0.015,-0.051,0.021 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.27,0.46,0.007,-0.025,0.04 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.43,0.34,0.53,0.016,-0.015,0.049 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.36,0.55,0.013,-0.019,0.045 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.008,-0.027,0.043 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.56,0.47,0.65,0.045,0.001,0.095 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.025,-0.005,0.059 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.018,-0.014,0.053 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.04,0.011,0.073 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.57,0.47,0.66,0.043,0.012,0.076 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.063,0.027,0.097 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.311,0.27,0.355 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.096,-0.132,-0.066 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.31,0.22,0.39,-0.048,-0.084,-0.013 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.21,0.38,-0.045,-0.084,-0.01 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.19,0.12,0.26,-0.067,-0.098,-0.039 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.041,-0.077,-0.006 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.018,-0.05,0.011 citras-fm,TiRex,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.01,-0.036,0.013 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.012,-0.045,0.017 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.018,-0.05,0.011 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.38,0.57,-0.018,-0.053,0.018 citras-fm,FlowState,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.021,-0.011,0.051 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.026,-0.062,0.005 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.015,-0.015,0.044 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.46,0.65,-0.007,-0.04,0.023 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.015,-0.015,0.044 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.018,-0.011,0.045 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.029,0.003,0.055 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.038,0.016,0.061 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.293,0.251,0.336 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.113,-0.153,-0.079 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.064,-0.089,-0.042 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.061,-0.086,-0.038 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.083,-0.118,-0.054 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.057,-0.081,-0.033 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.28,0.47,-0.025,-0.047,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.41,0.32,0.495,-0.028,-0.054,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.034,-0.055,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.39,0.58,-0.034,-0.082,0.015 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.43,0.33,0.52,0.006,-0.035,0.047 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.016,-0.046,0.015 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.023,-0.07,0.021 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.003,-0.013,0.018 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.57,0.48,0.665,0.014,-0.007,0.035 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.45,0.635,0.023,-0.005,0.049 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.282,0.241,0.327 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.088,-0.12,-0.058 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.28,0.2,0.36,-0.04,-0.09,0.006 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.038,-0.089,0.009 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.059,-0.09,-0.03 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.033,-0.083,0.013 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.011,-0.057,0.03 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.25,0.45,-0.003,-0.042,0.039 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.005,-0.047,0.037 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.011,-0.057,0.03 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.01,-0.036,0.012 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.44,0.34,0.54,0.028,-0.012,0.071 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.019,-0.056,0.014 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.44,0.35,0.54,0.007,-0.023,0.039 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.022,-0.021,0.065 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.022,-0.021,0.065 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.51,0.42,0.61,0.025,-0.018,0.065 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.51,0.41,0.61,0.036,-0.003,0.077 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.51,0.42,0.61,0.045,0.008,0.083 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.915,0.99,0.298,0.254,0.342 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.113,-0.153,-0.079 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.064,-0.089,-0.042 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.061,-0.086,-0.038 +Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.083,-0.118,-0.054 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.057,-0.081,-0.033 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.034,-0.055,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.28,0.47,-0.025,-0.047,-0.003 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.41,0.32,0.495,-0.028,-0.054,-0.005 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.39,0.58,-0.034,-0.082,0.015 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.43,0.33,0.52,0.006,-0.035,0.047 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.042,-0.079,-0.012 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.016,-0.046,0.015 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.023,-0.07,0.021 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.003,-0.013,0.018 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.45,0.635,0.023,-0.005,0.049 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.282,0.241,0.327 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.116,-0.156,-0.082 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.067,-0.089,-0.046 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.064,-0.087,-0.042 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.27,0.18,0.35,-0.086,-0.12,-0.059 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.06,-0.081,-0.038 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.037,-0.051,-0.022 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.34,0.25,0.44,-0.028,-0.046,-0.011 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.31,0.49,-0.031,-0.054,-0.009 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.037,-0.051,-0.022 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.39,0.57,-0.036,-0.086,0.011 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.43,0.33,0.53,0.003,-0.034,0.044 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.045,-0.083,-0.012 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.018,-0.047,0.011 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.34,0.54,-0.003,-0.019,0.013 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.49,0.39,0.58,-0.026,-0.07,0.018 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.34,0.54,-0.003,-0.019,0.013 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.011,-0.012,0.033 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.45,0.65,0.021,-0.006,0.045 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.28,0.242,0.323 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.128,-0.165,-0.095 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.19,0.12,0.26,-0.079,-0.114,-0.048 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.23,0.16,0.32,-0.076,-0.113,-0.045 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.098,-0.132,-0.069 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.072,-0.107,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.315,-0.04,-0.059,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.205,0.375,-0.043,-0.064,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.21,0.38,-0.049,-0.077,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.048,-0.094,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.44,0.35,0.535,-0.008,-0.045,0.028 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.03,-0.059,-0.003 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.335,0.52,-0.014,-0.037,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.49,0.39,0.59,-0.037,-0.083,0.003 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.44,0.34,0.54,-0.011,-0.034,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.465,0.64,0.01,-0.013,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.272,0.235,0.314 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.139,-0.177,-0.106 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.089,-0.123,-0.057 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.087,-0.121,-0.054 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.109,-0.144,-0.076 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.082,-0.115,-0.051 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.059,-0.088,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.05,-0.072,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.21,0.375,-0.053,-0.077,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.059,-0.088,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.41,0.31,0.51,-0.058,-0.106,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.36,0.265,0.45,-0.018,-0.049,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.067,-0.107,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.04,-0.065,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.365,0.55,-0.024,-0.051,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.49,0.39,0.58,-0.047,-0.091,-0.008 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.365,0.55,-0.024,-0.051,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.44,0.35,0.55,-0.021,-0.048,0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.36,0.535,-0.01,-0.033,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.265,0.226,0.304 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.55,-0.648,-0.466 @@ -276,15 +276,15 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.482,-0.588,-0.396 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.479,-0.583,-0.392 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.509,-0.613,-0.427 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.01,0.09,-0.473,-0.579,-0.388 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.441,-0.541,-0.362 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.429,-0.512,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.433,-0.52,-0.365 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.441,-0.541,-0.362 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.44,-0.529,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.386,-0.475,-0.305 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.452,-0.549,-0.369 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.415,-0.507,-0.334 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.393,-0.485,-0.318 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.01,0.085,-0.425,-0.52,-0.341 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.393,-0.485,-0.318 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.39,-0.478,-0.319 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.374,-0.457,-0.308 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.361,-0.437,-0.293 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv index b0c7fc79a316598f230ff259648b8352ea1201b6..bc181dea984821aa62b562d6ed9e7f89def338b1 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -7,13 +7,13 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.57,0.47,0.66,0.055,0.025,0.085 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.082,0.056,0.111 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.55,0.74,0.077,0.047,0.104 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.088,0.059,0.115 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.073,0.054,0.094 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.78,0.7,0.85,0.073,0.05,0.097 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.78,0.93,0.104,0.077,0.134 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.123,0.087,0.162 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.11,0.081,0.141 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.099,0.073,0.125 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.111,0.082,0.142 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.131,0.103,0.16 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.137,0.11,0.168 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.427,0.521 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.054,-0.088,-0.023 @@ -24,13 +24,13 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.003,-0.006,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.032,0.009,0.056 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.027,0.014,0.038 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.038,0.015,0.06 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.71,0.63,0.8,0.023,-0.012,0.056 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.57,0.74,0.022,-0.024,0.067 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.055,0.022,0.087 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.075,0.039,0.116 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.062,0.04,0.084 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.64,0.81,0.05,0.004,0.093 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.063,0.044,0.082 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.084,0.056,0.114 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.83,0.76,0.91,0.09,0.06,0.119 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.444,0.394,0.5 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.51,0.41,0.6,-0.034,-0.058,-0.012 @@ -41,13 +41,13 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.4,0.6,0.023,-0.008,0.056 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.051,0.026,0.077 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.5,0.7,0.045,0.019,0.073 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.057,0.027,0.088 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.042,0.019,0.065 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.041,0.01,0.071 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.81,0.74,0.88,0.073,0.049,0.097 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.093,0.057,0.133 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.08,0.053,0.109 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.069,0.041,0.095 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.081,0.057,0.109 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.102,0.078,0.13 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.108,0.081,0.133 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.409,0.504 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.054,-0.088,-0.021 @@ -58,13 +58,13 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.004,-0.002,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.032,0.009,0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.027,0.016,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.039,0.017,0.06 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.71,0.63,0.8,0.023,-0.011,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.63,0.55,0.72,0.023,-0.024,0.067 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.055,0.021,0.088 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.075,0.039,0.117 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.062,0.04,0.083 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.05,0.005,0.092 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.063,0.044,0.083 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.084,0.056,0.114 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.091,0.06,0.12 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.444,0.394,0.5 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.058,-0.093,-0.026 @@ -75,13 +75,13 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.029,0.008,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.023,0.014,0.032 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.035,0.014,0.056 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.02,-0.015,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.019,-0.028,0.062 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.052,0.019,0.084 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.072,0.034,0.112 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.059,0.037,0.08 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.047,0.001,0.09 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.059,0.042,0.077 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.081,0.053,0.111 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.087,0.058,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.442,0.392,0.498 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.089,-0.125,-0.06 @@ -92,13 +92,13 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.03,-0.054,-0.008 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.51,0.41,0.61,-0.006,-0.026,0.012 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.565,0.465,0.66,0.006,-0.01,0.022 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.61,0.52,0.7,-0.009,-0.043,0.021 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.68,0.59,0.77,-0.01,-0.053,0.029 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.024,0.001,0.047 TiRex,FlowState,0.655,0.56,0.75,0.044,0.014,0.08 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.031,0.009,0.052 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.019,-0.024,0.055 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.031,0.015,0.049 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.825,0.75,0.895,0.054,0.036,0.072 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.835,0.76,0.905,0.06,0.042,0.08 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.379,0.479 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.26,0.45,-0.083,-0.117,-0.049 @@ -109,13 +109,13 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.024,-0.033,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.49,0.39,0.59,0.006,-0.012,0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.012,-0.008,0.033 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.51,0.69,-0.004,-0.037,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.59,0.5,0.69,-0.004,-0.052,0.04 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.029,-0.002,0.058 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.05,0.014,0.088 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.036,0.02,0.054 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.024,-0.02,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.037,0.024,0.049 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.059,0.035,0.084 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.066,0.038,0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.429,0.379,0.485 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.096,-0.13,-0.062 @@ -126,15 +126,32 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.036,-0.059,-0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.435,0.34,0.535,-0.007,-0.023,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.012,-0.035,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.016,-0.051,0.016 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.51,0.7,-0.017,-0.059,0.023 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.017,-0.013,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.65,0.56,0.735,0.038,0.008,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.485,0.67,0.024,0.001,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.012,-0.032,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.51,0.69,0.025,0.003,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.048,0.027,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.72,0.635,0.8,0.054,0.033,0.075 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.422,0.375,0.474 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.079,-0.104,-0.057 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.29,0.2,0.37,-0.023,-0.059,0.012 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.26,0.17,0.34,-0.044,-0.069,-0.02 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.2,0.37,-0.024,-0.058,0.011 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.02,-0.055,0.015 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.39,0.3,0.48,0.009,-0.021,0.041 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.31,0.49,0.004,-0.029,0.036 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.016,-0.016,0.048 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.49,0.38,0.58,-0.001,-0.033,0.03 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.033,0.003,0.066 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.053,0.01,0.102 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.04,0.01,0.073 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.028,-0.006,0.06 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.041,0.01,0.074 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.069,0.035,0.103 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.431,0.383,0.483 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.22,0.15,0.3,-0.078,-0.107,-0.053 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.26,0.43,-0.023,-0.071,0.023 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.043,-0.077,-0.01 @@ -143,13 +160,13 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.019,-0.067,0.028 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.32,0.23,0.41,0.01,-0.03,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.31,0.5,0.004,-0.042,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.3,0.49,0.016,-0.024,0.056 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.51,0.42,0.62,0.001,-0.031,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.57,0.48,0.67,0.034,-0.003,0.069 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.054,0.012,0.098 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.53,0.43,0.62,0.04,-0.005,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.61,0.51,0.71,0.028,0.003,0.054 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.51,0.42,0.6,0.041,-0.0,0.084 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.51,0.69,0.063,0.026,0.102 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.66,0.56,0.75,0.07,0.031,0.108 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.385,0.484 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.15,0.07,0.22,-0.116,-0.155,-0.083 @@ -160,13 +177,13 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.055,-0.091,-0.02 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.024,-0.049,-0.001 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.03,-0.061,0.002 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.018,-0.049,0.012 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.034,-0.07,-0.003 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.43,0.33,0.52,-0.035,-0.074,0.003 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,FlowState,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.021,-0.013,0.052 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.007,-0.024,0.037 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.45,0.65,-0.005,-0.044,0.03 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.008,-0.021,0.036 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.031,0.006,0.058 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.037,0.016,0.058 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.412,0.362,0.466 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.14,-0.193,-0.095 @@ -177,13 +194,13 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.077,-0.127,-0.036 FlowState,TiRex,0.345,0.25,0.44,-0.046,-0.087,-0.014 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.052,-0.097,-0.014 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.265,0.44,-0.04,-0.08,-0.008 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.056,-0.114,-0.01 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.38,0.58,-0.057,-0.109,-0.012 FlowState,citras-fm,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.022,-0.054,0.013 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.51,0.42,0.605,-0.014,-0.058,0.025 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.45,0.65,-0.027,-0.079,0.018 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.013,-0.056,0.022 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.56,0.465,0.655,0.01,-0.028,0.047 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.505,0.69,0.017,-0.016,0.045 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.399,0.352,0.451 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.124,-0.164,-0.088 @@ -194,13 +211,13 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.062,-0.087,-0.038 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.032,-0.054,-0.01 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.038,-0.057,-0.02 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.33,0.515,-0.025,-0.051,-0.001 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.38,0.29,0.48,-0.041,-0.079,-0.01 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.47,0.38,0.57,-0.042,-0.092,0.005 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.007,-0.038,0.024 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.49,0.395,0.58,0.014,-0.026,0.055 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.46,0.65,-0.012,-0.061,0.032 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.56,0.47,0.65,0.001,-0.015,0.016 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.024,0.003,0.045 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.46,0.645,0.03,0.001,0.055 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.408,0.354,0.464 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.11,-0.142,-0.078 @@ -211,13 +228,13 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.049,-0.098,-0.001 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.019,-0.058,0.024 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.025,-0.071,0.02 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.012,-0.053,0.031 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.029,-0.064,0.006 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.39,0.29,0.49,-0.029,-0.057,-0.003 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.45,0.35,0.55,0.005,-0.031,0.042 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.35,0.55,0.026,-0.018,0.073 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.35,0.54,0.012,-0.033,0.058 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.47,0.38,0.57,0.013,-0.031,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.036,-0.005,0.078 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.54,0.45,0.64,0.042,0.005,0.081 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.94,1.0,0.415,0.364,0.469 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.125,-0.166,-0.09 @@ -228,32 +245,15 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.063,-0.083,-0.043 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.032,-0.052,-0.015 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.038,-0.051,-0.025 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.31,0.49,-0.026,-0.05,-0.003 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.042,-0.08,-0.01 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.49,0.4,0.58,-0.043,-0.091,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.46,0.37,0.55,-0.008,-0.037,0.021 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.013,-0.023,0.053 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.35,0.53,-0.001,-0.016,0.015 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.43,0.62,-0.013,-0.061,0.03 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.59,0.49,0.69,0.023,-0.001,0.045 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.5,0.69,0.03,0.003,0.054 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.407,0.356,0.462 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.151,-0.191,-0.115 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.092,-0.129,-0.059 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.15,0.09,0.22,-0.113,-0.149,-0.085 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.092,-0.129,-0.06 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.088,-0.124,-0.056 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.175,0.105,0.25,-0.057,-0.077,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.26,0.17,0.34,-0.063,-0.092,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.05,-0.074,-0.028 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.31,0.49,-0.067,-0.114,-0.026 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.032,-0.062,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.44,0.345,0.535,-0.01,-0.049,0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.024,-0.047,-0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.037,-0.085,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.41,0.31,0.51,-0.024,-0.047,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.54,0.455,0.625,0.007,-0.017,0.028 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.393,0.343,0.448 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.159,-0.201,-0.123 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.17,0.09,0.24,-0.099,-0.135,-0.064 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.121,-0.154,-0.088 @@ -262,13 +262,13 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.096,-0.13,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.165,0.095,0.24,-0.064,-0.088,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.07,-0.101,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.28,0.2,0.365,-0.057,-0.081,-0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.074,-0.115,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.34,0.25,0.44,-0.075,-0.121,-0.032 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.039,-0.062,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.31,0.495,-0.017,-0.048,0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.355,0.54,-0.031,-0.059,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.46,0.36,0.55,-0.044,-0.089,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.31,0.5,-0.031,-0.058,-0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.46,0.375,0.545,-0.007,-0.029,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.389,0.342,0.441 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.087,-0.745 @@ -279,12 +279,12 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.793,-0.991,-0.646 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-0.919,-0.611 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.752,-0.941,-0.611 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.73,-0.902,-0.6 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.758,-0.934,-0.621 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.759,-0.937,-0.626 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.7,-0.874,-0.566 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.664,-0.822,-0.542 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.688,-0.867,-0.548 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.06,-0.709,-0.884,-0.572 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.687,-0.859,-0.552 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.648,-0.812,-0.522 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.636,-0.788,-0.52 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 4bcda0d3437b286d68c4f128f51ddcf8249c4d0d..33fba76efe3013fefcb61330c5963c5148aba43b 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -8,11 +8,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.032,0.016,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.047,0.019,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.58,0.75,0.044,0.017,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.012,-0.037,0.061 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.036,-0.009,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.053,0.014,0.088 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.028,-0.019,0.071 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.71,0.63,0.8,0.051,0.021,0.081 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.79,0.71,0.88,0.075,0.049,0.103 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.087,0.053,0.121 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.87,0.8,0.94,0.082,0.061,0.105 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.098,0.064,0.129 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.367,0.314,0.421 @@ -25,11 +25,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.03,0.016,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.76,0.68,0.83,0.045,0.018,0.072 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.043,0.016,0.067 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.01,-0.038,0.06 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.034,-0.01,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.051,0.01,0.088 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.026,-0.021,0.072 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.05,0.019,0.078 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.073,0.047,0.101 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.085,0.05,0.12 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.08,0.059,0.102 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.096,0.063,0.127 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.365,0.312,0.418 @@ -42,11 +42,11 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.074,0.043,0.107 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.088,0.057,0.12 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.086,0.054,0.118 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.055,0.028,0.082 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.078,0.05,0.107 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.094,0.054,0.13 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.07,0.039,0.1 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.093,0.066,0.122 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.115,0.081,0.153 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.127,0.096,0.159 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.122,0.09,0.155 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.137,0.105,0.171 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.394,0.349,0.44 @@ -59,11 +59,11 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.7,0.87,0.025,0.013,0.037 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.039,0.015,0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.037,0.012,0.061 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.005,-0.046,0.054 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.028,-0.016,0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.046,0.005,0.083 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.02,-0.025,0.066 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.044,0.015,0.073 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.068,0.043,0.094 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.08,0.046,0.113 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.91,0.85,0.97,0.075,0.055,0.095 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.091,0.059,0.121 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.362,0.31,0.415 @@ -76,11 +76,11 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.53,0.42,0.63,0.038,0.008,0.068 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.51,0.69,0.052,0.023,0.084 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.05,0.018,0.085 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.018,-0.025,0.057 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.041,0.009,0.076 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.058,0.011,0.101 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.033,0.002,0.065 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.057,0.03,0.084 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.08,0.05,0.115 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.092,0.058,0.128 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.087,0.059,0.118 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.103,0.069,0.136 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.37,0.326,0.416 @@ -93,11 +93,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.53,0.43,0.62,0.015,-0.007,0.039 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.013,-0.01,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.46,0.65,-0.021,-0.072,0.03 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.55,0.75,0.004,-0.038,0.041 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.021,-0.018,0.058 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.005,-0.048,0.037 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.02,-0.007,0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.044,0.023,0.066 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.057,0.027,0.086 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.87,0.8,0.94,0.051,0.037,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.068,0.041,0.096 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.346,0.295,0.398 @@ -110,11 +110,11 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.47,0.38,0.57,-0.015,-0.04,0.007 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.515,0.42,0.61,-0.002,-0.02,0.014 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.57,0.47,0.66,-0.036,-0.092,0.017 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.62,0.53,0.71,-0.011,-0.054,0.027 TiRex,FlowState,0.545,0.45,0.64,0.007,-0.034,0.042 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.62,0.52,0.71,-0.02,-0.065,0.026 TiRex,citras-fm,0.61,0.52,0.71,0.005,-0.016,0.025 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.535,0.725,0.03,0.007,0.05 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.695,0.615,0.79,0.042,0.023,0.065 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.037,0.017,0.057 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.745,0.66,0.83,0.054,0.032,0.077 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.384 @@ -127,11 +127,11 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.46,0.37,0.55,-0.013,-0.037,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.485,0.39,0.58,0.002,-0.014,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.45,0.65,-0.034,-0.082,0.016 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.009,-0.052,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.5,0.685,0.009,-0.024,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.59,0.49,0.69,-0.017,-0.06,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.007,-0.018,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.54,0.455,0.635,0.032,0.006,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.615,0.78,0.045,0.02,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.51,0.7,0.039,0.017,0.064 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.73,0.65,0.81,0.056,0.034,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.337,0.293,0.386 @@ -144,14 +144,31 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.35,0.54,0.02,-0.031,0.067 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.43,0.34,0.53,0.035,-0.018,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.35,0.55,0.033,-0.016,0.076 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.52,0.43,0.62,0.024,-0.011,0.061 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.51,0.4,0.61,0.041,-0.004,0.089 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.016,-0.014,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.04,-0.006,0.081 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.064,0.011,0.112 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.076,0.027,0.12 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.071,0.024,0.117 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.63,0.53,0.73,0.087,0.043,0.13 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.359,0.314,0.404 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.037,-0.082,0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.035,-0.079,0.01 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.084,-0.119,-0.053 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.029,-0.072,0.016 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.043,-0.082,-0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.25,0.45,-0.004,-0.043,0.036 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.38,0.29,0.47,0.011,-0.028,0.051 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.009,-0.032,0.049 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.38,0.57,-0.025,-0.065,0.011 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.53,0.43,0.62,0.018,-0.039,0.069 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.46,0.65,-0.008,-0.047,0.026 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.016,-0.017,0.047 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.041,0.006,0.08 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.048,0.012,0.083 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.64,0.55,0.72,0.065,0.031,0.099 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.343,0.295,0.39 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.056,-0.097,-0.014 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.054,-0.097,-0.01 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.104,-0.15,-0.057 @@ -161,11 +178,11 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.38,0.29,0.48,-0.022,-0.062,0.017 FlowState,TiRex,0.455,0.36,0.55,-0.007,-0.044,0.033 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.315,0.5,-0.009,-0.044,0.024 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.49,0.39,0.6,-0.043,-0.098,0.004 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.47,0.38,0.57,-0.018,-0.074,0.037 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.43,0.64,-0.027,-0.078,0.022 FlowState,citras-fm,0.47,0.37,0.57,-0.002,-0.04,0.042 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.53,0.44,0.625,0.023,-0.018,0.067 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.455,0.64,0.036,-0.002,0.077 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.031,-0.008,0.07 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.64,0.545,0.73,0.048,0.016,0.084 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.331,0.285,0.379 @@ -178,11 +195,11 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.005,-0.039,0.046 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.38,0.29,0.48,0.019,-0.026,0.061 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.41,0.31,0.51,0.017,-0.027,0.057 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.016,-0.051,0.014 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.45,0.35,0.54,0.008,-0.027,0.045 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.47,0.36,0.57,0.026,-0.023,0.073 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.48,0.39,0.58,0.024,-0.013,0.06 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.41,0.6,0.049,0.004,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.061,0.016,0.104 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.056,0.013,0.097 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.61,0.51,0.71,0.072,0.032,0.113 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.94,1.0,0.349,0.305,0.394 @@ -195,11 +212,11 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.02,-0.048,0.007 citras-fm,TiRex,0.39,0.29,0.48,-0.005,-0.025,0.016 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.007,-0.032,0.018 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.041,-0.088,0.006 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.016,-0.05,0.017 citras-fm,FlowState,0.53,0.43,0.63,0.002,-0.044,0.039 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.42,0.61,-0.025,-0.064,0.012 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.52,0.43,0.61,0.025,-0.003,0.054 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.038,0.012,0.064 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.032,0.007,0.058 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.049,0.026,0.072 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.332,0.284,0.382 @@ -212,31 +229,14 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.046,-0.07,-0.024 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.275,0.465,-0.031,-0.053,-0.007 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.46,0.365,0.545,-0.033,-0.063,-0.006 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.068,-0.127,-0.011 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.042,-0.087,-0.006 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.47,0.375,0.56,-0.024,-0.072,0.018 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.4,0.59,-0.051,-0.105,-0.004 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.48,0.39,0.57,-0.026,-0.057,0.003 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.485,0.67,0.013,-0.011,0.037 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.008,-0.01,0.022 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.025,-0.003,0.053 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.315,0.266,0.365 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.095,-0.138,-0.056 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.093,-0.137,-0.053 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.145,-0.189,-0.106 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.087,-0.127,-0.048 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.101,-0.147,-0.062 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.06,-0.094,-0.028 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.305,0.21,0.385,-0.044,-0.069,-0.024 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.22,0.385,-0.047,-0.075,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.082,-0.137,-0.028 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.45,0.36,0.545,-0.037,-0.084,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.065,-0.116,-0.016 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.039,-0.068,-0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.33,0.515,-0.013,-0.038,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.46,0.36,0.56,-0.006,-0.031,0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.48,0.645,0.012,-0.012,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.306,0.258,0.357 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.13,0.06,0.2,-0.089,-0.117,-0.065 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.087,-0.114,-0.063 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.139,-0.183,-0.099 @@ -246,11 +246,11 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.13,0.06,0.2,-0.054,-0.071,-0.039 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.038,-0.061,-0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.3,0.49,-0.041,-0.068,-0.018 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.42,0.33,0.51,-0.076,-0.132,-0.025 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.05,-0.091,-0.012 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.44,0.34,0.54,-0.032,-0.075,0.008 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.059,-0.108,-0.013 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.033,-0.062,-0.007 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.38,0.29,0.48,-0.008,-0.023,0.01 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.54,0.44,0.64,0.005,-0.02,0.03 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.018,-0.011,0.045 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.31,0.259,0.362 @@ -263,11 +263,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.073,-0.106,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.255,0.17,0.34,-0.057,-0.083,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.35,-0.06,-0.086,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.37,0.27,0.47,-0.095,-0.149,-0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.36,0.28,0.45,-0.069,-0.11,-0.032 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.36,0.27,0.455,-0.05,-0.092,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.39,0.29,0.49,-0.078,-0.127,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.052,-0.077,-0.026 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.026,-0.056,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.355,0.52,-0.012,-0.038,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.018,-0.047,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.298,0.252,0.345 @@ -280,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.528,-0.66,-0.419 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.505,-0.623,-0.408 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.509,-0.63,-0.414 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.56,-0.678,-0.458 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.522,-0.641,-0.419 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.495,-0.609,-0.398 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.06,-0.535,-0.65,-0.439 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.498,-0.619,-0.397 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.46,-0.576,-0.363 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.441,-0.554,-0.347 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.449,-0.568,-0.349 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.424,-0.527,-0.336 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv index 192fd254aa1acb1e48143b8614c370a94cae94de..b751c07cee577adcbc10fe49fb9de8fc625f3ba8 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -8,12 +8,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.03,0.016,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.048,0.02,0.077 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.008,-0.039,0.057 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.047,0.022,0.071 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.06,0.029,0.092 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.038,-0.004,0.077 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.06,0.019,0.095 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.06,0.029,0.092 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.049,-0.001,0.094 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.077,0.051,0.105 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.082,0.061,0.106 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.096,0.063,0.129 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.107,0.074,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.492,0.44,0.545 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.56,0.47,0.66,-0.001,-0.008,0.007 @@ -25,12 +25,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.03,0.014,0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.048,0.021,0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.008,-0.04,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.047,0.02,0.072 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.72,0.64,0.81,0.06,0.027,0.091 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.038,-0.005,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.059,0.02,0.093 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.72,0.64,0.81,0.06,0.027,0.091 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.048,-0.001,0.094 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.076,0.049,0.105 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.081,0.06,0.105 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.096,0.063,0.13 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.106,0.072,0.137 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.492,0.441,0.544 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.045,0.012,0.077 @@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.074,0.042,0.107 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.091,0.058,0.126 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.053,0.026,0.079 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.09,0.059,0.122 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.102,0.073,0.135 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.081,0.053,0.11 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.102,0.063,0.137 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.102,0.073,0.135 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.091,0.057,0.12 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.118,0.083,0.156 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.123,0.091,0.156 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.137,0.105,0.17 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.147,0.114,0.18 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.515,0.469,0.559 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.006,-0.014,0.002 @@ -59,12 +59,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.025,0.014,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.72,0.64,0.8,0.043,0.019,0.071 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.62,0.54,0.71,0.003,-0.045,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.042,0.019,0.066 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.055,0.025,0.085 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.033,-0.009,0.07 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.055,0.014,0.091 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.055,0.025,0.085 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.043,-0.006,0.089 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.072,0.047,0.097 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.077,0.058,0.099 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.091,0.059,0.123 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.102,0.069,0.131 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.49,0.439,0.542 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.41,0.32,0.51,0.006,-0.034,0.042 @@ -76,12 +76,12 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.54,0.43,0.63,0.036,0.002,0.067 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.054,0.027,0.085 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.61,0.52,0.71,0.014,-0.03,0.054 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.053,0.022,0.087 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.066,0.04,0.092 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.044,0.012,0.079 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.065,0.017,0.107 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.066,0.04,0.092 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.054,0.02,0.087 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.082,0.053,0.118 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.087,0.059,0.117 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.101,0.07,0.136 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.86,0.8,0.93,0.112,0.08,0.143 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.495,0.449,0.541 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.031,-0.047,-0.016 @@ -93,12 +93,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.56,0.45,0.65,0.019,-0.003,0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.56,0.47,0.66,-0.023,-0.074,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.018,-0.006,0.041 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.63,0.55,0.72,0.031,0.002,0.061 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.68,0.59,0.78,0.008,-0.032,0.045 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.031,-0.007,0.066 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.63,0.55,0.72,0.031,0.002,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.019,-0.03,0.064 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.048,0.027,0.07 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.053,0.04,0.069 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.068,0.039,0.095 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.079,0.05,0.105 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.477,0.426,0.528 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.051,-0.083,-0.021 @@ -110,12 +110,12 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.44,0.35,0.55,-0.019,-0.045,0.003 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.042,-0.096,0.012 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.555,0.455,0.65,-0.001,-0.02,0.017 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.012,-0.007,0.032 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.63,0.54,0.72,-0.011,-0.053,0.028 TiRex,FlowState,0.605,0.515,0.7,0.012,-0.033,0.048 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.012,-0.007,0.032 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.0,-0.049,0.044 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.675,0.585,0.765,0.03,0.008,0.05 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.035,0.015,0.056 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.05,0.031,0.073 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.815,0.735,0.885,0.061,0.039,0.083 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.467,0.42,0.515 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.3,0.48,-0.008,-0.06,0.038 @@ -127,12 +127,12 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.44,0.34,0.53,0.022,-0.028,0.069 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.04,-0.012,0.088 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.039,-0.009,0.081 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.052,0.007,0.098 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.03,-0.007,0.069 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.59,0.49,0.69,0.052,0.007,0.099 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.052,0.007,0.098 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.041,0.009,0.076 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.47,0.66,0.069,0.016,0.118 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.074,0.026,0.121 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.089,0.04,0.134 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.099,0.055,0.142 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.488,0.44,0.535 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.05,-0.077,-0.023 @@ -144,31 +144,31 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.018,-0.042,0.006 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.445,0.35,0.545,0.001,-0.017,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.041,-0.088,0.009 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.013,-0.012,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.57,0.48,0.67,-0.01,-0.052,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.51,0.695,0.013,-0.02,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.013,-0.012,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.62,0.53,0.72,0.001,-0.047,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.475,0.665,0.031,0.006,0.056 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.036,0.014,0.061 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.73,0.645,0.81,0.051,0.028,0.076 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.76,0.685,0.835,0.062,0.04,0.085 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.467,0.422,0.518 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.064,-0.101,-0.03 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.28,0.19,0.36,-0.063,-0.1,-0.028 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.114,-0.156,-0.079 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.27,0.18,0.35,-0.058,-0.093,-0.026 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.07,-0.101,-0.041 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.28,0.45,-0.032,-0.065,-0.002 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.013,-0.033,0.007 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.055,-0.108,-0.007 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.014,-0.039,0.012 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.0,-0.05,0.038 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.012,-0.056,0.028 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.018,-0.011,0.047 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.023,-0.006,0.05 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.62,0.52,0.72,0.038,0.013,0.066 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.049,0.026,0.073 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.46,0.41,0.509 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.04,-0.083,0.004 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.039,-0.084,0.005 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.088,-0.124,-0.056 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.034,-0.076,0.009 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.046,-0.086,-0.012 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.32,0.22,0.41,-0.008,-0.047,0.031 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.37,0.28,0.46,0.011,-0.028,0.051 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.031,-0.074,0.007 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.33,0.52,0.01,-0.031,0.05 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.023,-0.035,0.074 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.023,-0.01,0.055 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.46,0.64,0.011,-0.031,0.048 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.04,0.006,0.077 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.57,0.48,0.67,0.046,0.009,0.082 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.071,0.037,0.104 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.472,0.422,0.521 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.064,-0.106,-0.02 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.063,-0.102,-0.02 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.114,-0.159,-0.068 @@ -178,14 +178,31 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.032,-0.071,0.007 FlowState,TiRex,0.395,0.3,0.485,-0.012,-0.051,0.032 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.41,0.31,0.51,-0.055,-0.11,-0.007 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.305,0.49,-0.014,-0.047,0.02 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.0,-0.04,0.048 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.023,-0.079,0.034 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.0,-0.04,0.048 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.47,0.66,-0.012,-0.068,0.038 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.54,0.45,0.635,0.018,-0.024,0.065 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.53,0.44,0.63,0.023,-0.016,0.062 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.56,0.475,0.65,0.038,-0.002,0.08 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.66,0.575,0.75,0.05,0.015,0.088 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.46,0.412,0.509 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.064,-0.101,-0.03 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.28,0.19,0.36,-0.063,-0.1,-0.028 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.114,-0.156,-0.079 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.27,0.18,0.35,-0.058,-0.093,-0.026 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.07,-0.101,-0.041 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.28,0.45,-0.032,-0.065,-0.002 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.013,-0.033,0.007 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.055,-0.108,-0.007 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.014,-0.039,0.012 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.023,-0.058,0.01 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.0,-0.05,0.038 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.012,-0.056,0.028 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.018,-0.011,0.047 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.023,-0.006,0.05 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.049,0.026,0.073 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.46,0.41,0.509 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.051,-0.104,0.001 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.051,-0.104,0.001 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.101,-0.137,-0.061 @@ -195,12 +212,12 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.02,-0.068,0.029 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.0,-0.047,0.046 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.043,-0.082,-0.009 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.38,0.28,0.47,-0.001,-0.046,0.045 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.012,-0.029,0.053 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.45,0.36,0.54,-0.011,-0.051,0.03 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.44,0.34,0.53,0.012,-0.04,0.063 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.012,-0.029,0.053 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.49,0.4,0.58,0.03,-0.02,0.08 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.035,-0.012,0.082 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.45,0.65,0.05,0.004,0.097 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.57,0.48,0.67,0.061,0.019,0.105 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.985,0.96,1.0,0.466,0.42,0.513 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.083,-0.117,-0.054 @@ -212,12 +229,12 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.051,-0.075,-0.028 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.325,0.235,0.415,-0.031,-0.053,-0.008 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.074,-0.133,-0.016 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.335,0.525,-0.032,-0.06,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.018,-0.049,0.011 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.042,-0.083,-0.006 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.46,0.365,0.55,-0.018,-0.069,0.023 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.018,-0.049,0.011 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.51,0.42,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.02 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.006,-0.012,0.021 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.485,0.675,0.021,-0.002,0.045 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.5,0.675,0.032,0.004,0.061 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.45,0.398,0.501 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.089,-0.119,-0.065 @@ -229,31 +246,14 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.056,-0.074,-0.042 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.037,-0.059,-0.015 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.08,-0.138,-0.027 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.038,-0.065,-0.014 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.024,-0.053,0.006 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.43,0.33,0.52,-0.048,-0.089,-0.009 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.47,0.37,0.56,-0.024,-0.067,0.016 +Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.024,-0.053,0.006 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.036,-0.089,0.012 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.006,-0.021,0.012 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.015,-0.011,0.039 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.027,-0.002,0.054 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.447,0.394,0.5 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.106,-0.149,-0.067 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.106,-0.149,-0.067 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.158,-0.205,-0.118 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.1,-0.14,-0.063 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.113,-0.158,-0.075 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.073,-0.105,-0.04 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.053,-0.079,-0.031 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.097,-0.155,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.355,-0.054,-0.083,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.38,0.28,0.48,-0.04,-0.071,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.44,0.35,0.525,-0.04,-0.087,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.35,0.55,-0.052,-0.108,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.325,0.515,-0.021,-0.047,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.016,-0.041,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.505,0.67,0.012,-0.013,0.037 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.439,0.387,0.49 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.119,-0.158,-0.08 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.119,-0.159,-0.078 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.172,-0.22,-0.129 @@ -263,12 +263,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.086,-0.118,-0.053 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.185,0.115,0.265,-0.065,-0.091,-0.041 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.11,-0.166,-0.058 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.24,0.165,0.315,-0.066,-0.092,-0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.052,-0.079,-0.027 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.077,-0.115,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.34,0.25,0.425,-0.052,-0.097,-0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.052,-0.079,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.43,0.33,0.52,-0.065,-0.117,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.325,0.5,-0.033,-0.065,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.028,-0.057,0.002 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.41,0.33,0.495,-0.012,-0.038,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.432,0.384,0.482 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.97,-1.195,-0.786 @@ -280,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.911,-1.118,-0.742 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-0.875,-1.061,-0.724 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.01,0.0,0.04,-0.954,-1.15,-0.785 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.877,-1.074,-0.729 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.852,-1.036,-0.694 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.895,-1.088,-0.731 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.852,-1.039,-0.701 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.852,-1.036,-0.694 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.015,0.0,0.04,-0.874,-1.055,-0.723 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.819,-1.004,-0.66 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.809,-0.999,-0.651 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.781,-0.96,-0.632 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.76,-0.929,-0.623 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv index e3b66cbc141abc200b4e233726582b1aa0023333..82e4a2c0b2898ac60f8d4720e4cfd49fec05cfd5 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,81.25000000000001,39.36065711235778,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.46428571428571,40.35527492863492,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.99999999999999,33.8286308921188,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,74.10714285714286,33.45628492457764,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,71.9642857142857,33.23816302237865,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,64.46428571428571,31.711376634125298,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,64.28571428571429,38.731113564322584,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.10714285714286,32.341284052204614,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 -TiRex,64.10714285714285,31.37878712819341,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.03571428571429,29.889473184557,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 -citras-fm,61.7857142857143,32.627851253463945,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.82142857142857,30.96058630074824,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.10714285714285,37.31565282683812,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.05357142857142,30.066987483189834,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 -CatBoost,51.607142857142854,30.455043900424116,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,50.71428571428571,28.910798192784526,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,49.28571428571428,29.84834988479378,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.017857142857146,28.43040512442394,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,47.142857142857146,26.15800221608241,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 -TFT,43.03571428571428,25.36909549957551,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,40.0,22.043936094093443,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 -PatchTST,35.714285714285715,23.853686364116655,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,34.28571428571429,21.286621636178083,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 -DeepAR,31.607142857142854,20.242779035445857,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,26.42857142857143,2.308819055034983,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.71428571428571,14.792523584936335,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.714285714285712,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.357142857142854,-17.194952506512085,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.821428571428571,-17.371605726274986,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.86206896551727,39.36065711235778,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.48275862068965,40.35527492863492,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.48275862068965,33.8286308921188,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,73.44827586206898,33.45628492457764,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,71.72413793103448,33.23816302237865,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,64.31034482758619,38.731113564322584,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.13793103448275,31.711376634125298,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.79310344827588,32.341284052204614,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TiRex,63.44827586206896,31.37878712819341,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,62.06896551724138,29.889473184557,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +TS-ICL,61.3793103448276,35.91589487686446,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,61.20689655172416,32.627851253463945,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,59.310344827586206,30.96058630074824,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.9655172413793,37.31565282683812,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.63793103448274,30.066987483189834,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +CatBoost,50.86206896551724,30.455043900424116,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.689655172413794,28.910798192784526,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,48.96551724137932,29.84834988479378,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.36206896551726,28.43040512442394,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,46.55172413793103,26.15800221608241,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +TFT,42.93103448275861,25.36909549957551,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,38.9655172413793,22.043936094093443,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +PatchTST,35.3448275862069,23.853686364116655,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,33.448275862068975,21.286621636178083,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +DeepAR,31.72413793103449,20.242779035445857,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,26.03448275862069,2.308819055034983,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.172413793103445,14.792523584936335,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.689655172413792,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.344827586206891,-17.194952506512085,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.655172413793103,-17.371605726274986,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 7ddd54b68337c43d4ace24d1e3505f660c3617eb..8fb1895c2514f23c6d0599e5cf459aa107ac24f0 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,83.75000000000001,49.69769702480558,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,83.57142857142857,51.11726173711795,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,81.25,46.0701139374327,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,80.17857142857142,45.923366881561044,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,77.50000000000001,45.509009126528746,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,69.46428571428571,43.986765819509955,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.21428571428572,43.41265479231578,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.85714285714285,49.23132961740353,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.4285714285714,43.975850949879494,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,62.32142857142857,42.985101438365106,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 -citras-fm,61.25000000000001,43.47379498879312,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,60.89285714285716,47.58870581866148,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.89285714285714,41.770607055033416,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.73214285714286,41.66951867743352,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.57142857142857,41.168665124101466,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.87500000000001,40.39825907941946,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 -TFT,45.26785714285713,35.25719900873755,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,41.25,34.960543144337095,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.64285714285714,37.62388936758738,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,37.767857142857146,30.866627409785742,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,37.14285714285714,28.07755146139175,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,35.535714285714285,31.41463828851714,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 -CatBoost,30.89285714285714,28.408790986693145,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,28.392857142857135,23.985315488022508,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,25.71428571428572,-9.388091327894731,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,18.57142857142857,8.467204297422992,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.071428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.571428571428571,-36.92812112198962,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.42857142857143,-36.00664557240114,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,83.44827586206898,49.69769702480558,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.44827586206897,51.11726173711795,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.86206896551725,46.0701139374327,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,79.65517241379311,45.923366881561044,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,77.06896551724137,45.509009126528746,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,69.13793103448276,43.986765819509955,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.75862068965517,49.23132961740353,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.24137931034483,43.41265479231578,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,65.86206896551722,43.975850949879494,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.27586206896553,47.04449605725086,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,61.72413793103447,42.985101438365106,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +citras-fm,60.51724137931035,43.47379498879312,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.51724137931035,47.58870581866148,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,60.17241379310344,41.770607055033416,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.22413793103448,41.66951867743352,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,53.62068965517241,41.168665124101466,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.94827586206897,40.39825907941946,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +TFT,45.086206896551715,35.25719900873755,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,40.689655172413794,34.960543144337095,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.793103448275865,37.62388936758738,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,37.50000000000001,30.866627409785742,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.206896551724135,28.07755146139175,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,34.6551724137931,31.41463828851714,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +CatBoost,30.344827586206886,28.408790986693145,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,27.93103448275862,23.985315488022508,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,25.344827586206897,-9.388091327894731,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,18.103448275862068,8.467204297422992,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.862068965517242,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.448275862068964,-36.92812112198962,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.551724137931034,-36.00664557240114,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 1603f0e7e9f50eedd3fb3be89d6c57a0ea580215..9f22dbcd434908dc09d39c10930c0f1cf274d8ba 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,77.85714285714286,44.381624128298924,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.42857142857143,40.5443136269659,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.89285714285712,40.59545232120661,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,75.71428571428571,46.42945599946328,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,72.32142857142856,39.35647757871554,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.85714285714288,37.79774120616134,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,66.24999999999999,45.35245906888268,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,64.82142857142856,43.80144484440236,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.46428571428572,37.92043843564766,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 -TiRex,60.53571428571429,36.44667265137919,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.0,36.45959491236115,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.464285714285715,35.839403979765414,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 -citras-fm,58.03571428571429,37.38712875476191,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.32142857142858,34.646634616614506,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.23214285714285,34.00276523407868,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,48.660714285714285,32.04345534981628,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,46.78571428571428,32.95419144870776,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,45.17857142857142,32.562191014123485,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -TFT,44.46428571428571,30.29729199130888,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,43.21428571428571,28.35776598037154,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,39.28571428571428,31.31052759701759,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.57142857142858,26.82155106405505,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,35.17857142857142,22.965967222391914,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 -DeepAR,33.214285714285715,23.8323881195716,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,30.0,11.232208577032987,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,24.46428571428571,18.48735923310082,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.214285714285712,-7.33838516088694,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.500000000000004,-6.944317709784564,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.071428571428568,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,77.41379310344828,44.381624128298924,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,75.86206896551724,40.5443136269659,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,75.6896551724138,46.42945599946328,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.34482758620689,40.59545232120661,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,72.06896551724135,39.35647757871554,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,67.4137931034483,37.79774120616134,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,66.20689655172414,45.35245906888268,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,64.48275862068964,43.80144484440236,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,64.13793103448275,37.92043843564766,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.068965517241395,40.41953809890503,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,60.172413793103466,36.44667265137919,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,59.31034482758621,36.45959491236115,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +Toto-1.0,58.79310344827585,35.839403979765414,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +citras-fm,57.413793103448285,37.38712875476191,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.241379310344826,34.646634616614506,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.98275862068965,34.00276523407868,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.01724137931035,32.04345534981628,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,46.03448275862069,32.95419144870776,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,44.82758620689655,32.562191014123485,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +TFT,44.3103448275862,30.29729199130888,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,42.58620689655172,28.35776598037154,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,38.793103448275865,31.31052759701759,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,37.758620689655174,26.82155106405505,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,34.482758620689644,22.965967222391914,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +DeepAR,32.931034482758626,23.8323881195716,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,29.48275862068965,11.232208577032987,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.965517241379306,18.48735923310082,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.93103448275862,-7.33838516088694,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.413793103448276,-6.944317709784564,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.86206896551724,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 5a56f32b3a7c1d0ed7679dada68d7b8f68234104..615a5965444cd1d3e2f1a07ee723cdd1b682ccf5 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,81.25,53.12994473655765,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,80.89285714285715,55.12837085085486,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,80.89285714285714,53.33541041660834,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,80.35714285714286,57.23698536593628,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.42857142857142,52.023804419022525,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,70.35714285714285,50.71609002659482,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.17857142857143,56.3528443902342,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.96428571428571,50.01612769240715,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 -TiRex,66.96428571428571,49.10426511916396,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,64.10714285714286,54.56497559001957,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,61.60714285714285,48.587775840553334,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 -FlowState,60.892857142857146,48.92632727441107,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 -citras-fm,60.53571428571429,49.13763388354283,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,55.71428571428573,47.48384541528413,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.625,46.50676313572143,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.87500000000001,45.163123321951495,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 -TFT,45.62499999999999,41.22673219213343,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,42.67857142857143,43.384946426947444,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.03571428571428,41.57117437735931,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.96428571428571,34.59301612432139,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.607142857142854,30.64976777590186,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 -DeepAR,36.160714285714285,35.666728318741306,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,31.78571428571429,33.32014356092802,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,29.64285714285714,28.748806501732805,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.107142857142854,-0.6607124076495996,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,17.85714285714285,9.363488940302078,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.964285714285715,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,7.5,-33.756820931714884,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.42857142857143,-32.08602565701002,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.51724137931033,53.12994473655765,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.3448275862069,57.23698536593628,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.3448275862069,55.12837085085486,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,80.17241379310346,53.33541041660834,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.03448275862068,52.023804419022525,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,70.0,56.3528443902342,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,69.82758620689656,50.71609002659482,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,66.20689655172413,52.24235767766595,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.20689655172413,50.01612769240715,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TiRex,66.03448275862068,49.10426511916396,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,63.62068965517243,54.56497559001957,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,60.862068965517224,48.587775840553334,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +FlowState,60.00000000000001,48.92632727441107,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +citras-fm,59.655172413793125,49.13763388354283,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,55.51724137931034,47.48384541528413,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.08620689655173,46.50676313572143,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.94827586206896,45.163123321951495,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +TFT,45.086206896551715,41.22673219213343,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,42.06896551724139,43.384946426947444,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.068965517241374,41.57117437735931,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,36.03448275862069,34.59301612432139,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +Stat. Ensemble,35.689655172413794,30.64976777590186,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +DeepAR,35.43103448275862,35.666728318741306,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,31.034482758620683,33.32014356092802,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,29.13793103448275,28.748806501732805,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,23.965517241379306,-0.6607124076495996,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,17.413793103448274,9.363488940302078,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.724137931034484,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.413793103448277,-33.756820931714884,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.551724137931035,-32.08602565701002,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv index e15bb5b25c714710399f5607842366efa99eb328..6192690bd37cfb20d7473cbfa03b47fdc010109b 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -7,12 +7,12 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.107,0.029,0.195 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.028,0.076 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.131,0.053,0.212 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.118,0.039,0.207 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.115,0.048,0.184 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.127,0.047,0.212 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.069,0.017,0.122 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.115,0.048,0.184 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.149,0.066,0.235 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.048,-0.004,0.102 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.136,0.052,0.224 -Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.142,0.068,0.217 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.07,0.228 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.095,0.241 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.32,0.476 @@ -24,12 +24,12 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.092,0.009,0.184 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.01,-0.09,0.092 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.116,0.045,0.199 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.104,0.011,0.2 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.1,0.046,0.165 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,0.036,0.196 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.054,-0.019,0.117 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.1,0.046,0.165 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.135,0.023,0.242 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.033,-0.044,0.1 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.122,0.043,0.207 -TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.128,0.04,0.213 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.133,0.06,0.215 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.153,0.079,0.233 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.306,0.479 @@ -41,12 +41,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.009,-0.005,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.449,0.85,-0.08,-0.24,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.036,0.002,0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.022,-0.003,0.047 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.018,-0.035,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.031,0.005,0.058 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.033,-0.164,0.07 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.018,-0.035,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.056,-0.003,0.129 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.056,-0.207,0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.042,0.009,0.074 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.049,-0.065,0.147 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.054,0.015,0.094 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.075,0.029,0.127 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.338,0.256,0.42 @@ -58,12 +58,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.01,0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.086,-0.243,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.003,0.069 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.016,-0.011,0.044 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.012,-0.039,0.062 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.026,0.0,0.047 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.038,-0.168,0.063 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.012,-0.039,0.062 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.051,-0.012,0.124 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.062,-0.208,0.047 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.036,0.004,0.067 -Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.043,-0.073,0.142 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.048,0.006,0.09 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.07,0.026,0.121 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.335,0.254,0.415 @@ -75,12 +75,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.349,0.75,-0.09,-0.251,0.034 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.004,0.063 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,-0.01,0.037 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.009,-0.04,0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.022,0.006,0.039 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.042,-0.174,0.058 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.009,-0.04,0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.048,-0.022,0.125 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.065,-0.216,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.033,0.009,0.056 -Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.04,-0.077,0.136 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.045,0.009,0.078 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.067,0.024,0.118 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.332,0.25,0.413 @@ -92,12 +92,12 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.651,0.082,-0.036,0.201 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.107,-0.008,0.225 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.094,-0.024,0.216 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.091,-0.012,0.201 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.701,0.103,-0.014,0.223 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.044,-0.027,0.118 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.091,-0.012,0.201 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.126,0.014,0.242 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.03,0.083 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.113,-0.01,0.236 -TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.119,0.018,0.226 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.124,0.007,0.237 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.144,0.034,0.25 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.3,0.469 @@ -109,12 +109,12 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.067,0.004 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.12,-0.29,0.008 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.014,-0.062,0.022 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.019,-0.061,0.015 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.005,-0.041,0.027 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.071,-0.207,0.03 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.019,-0.061,0.015 TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.021,-0.066,0.094 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.095,-0.237,0.018 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.006,-0.025,0.036 -TiRex,CatBoost,0.6,0.35,0.85,0.013,-0.112,0.113 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.019,-0.006,0.046 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.01,0.074 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.314,0.237,0.395 @@ -126,32 +126,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.038,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.104,-0.275,0.023 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.014,-0.022,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.065,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.009,-0.024,0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.056,-0.199,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.065,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.575,0.399,0.775,0.035,-0.028,0.11 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.079,-0.238,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.02,-0.009,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.088,0.124 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.033,-0.006,0.073 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.055,0.011,0.104 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.242,0.409 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.13,-0.226,-0.05 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.111,-0.198,-0.048 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.075,0.034 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.012,-0.066,0.037 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.009,-0.06,0.038 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.1,-0.252,0.012 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.018,-0.016,0.058 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.051,0.061 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.013,-0.035,0.058 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.039,-0.052,0.12 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.075,-0.203,0.02 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.024,-0.021,0.071 -citras-fm,CatBoost,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.031,-0.074,0.113 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.037,0.002,0.078 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.02,0.101 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.245,0.41 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.145,-0.268,-0.05 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.126,-0.244,-0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.032,-0.062,-0.005 @@ -160,15 +143,49 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.023,-0.04,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.299,0.7,-0.115,-0.288,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.005,-0.028,0.039 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.009,-0.045,0.023 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.014,-0.061,0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.066,-0.2,0.031 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.014,-0.061,0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.026,-0.055,0.108 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.089,-0.249,0.022 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.011,-0.005,0.028 -Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.018,-0.103,0.114 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.024,-0.013,0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.046,-0.001,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.317,0.232,0.406 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.074,-0.139,-0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.057,-0.133,0.019 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.032,-0.076,0.141 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.037,-0.067,0.144 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.04,-0.062,0.149 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.046,-0.134,0.027 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.066,-0.031,0.172 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.053,-0.053,0.166 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.062,-0.032,0.167 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.049,-0.04,0.143 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.086,-0.041,0.202 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.082,0.034 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.072,-0.026,0.178 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.084,-0.005,0.183 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.105,0.016,0.2 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.263,0.449 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.13,-0.226,-0.05 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.111,-0.198,-0.048 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.075,0.034 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.012,-0.066,0.037 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.009,-0.06,0.038 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.1,-0.252,0.012 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.018,-0.016,0.058 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.051,0.061 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.013,-0.035,0.058 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.051,-0.167,0.039 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.039,-0.052,0.12 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.075,-0.203,0.02 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.024,-0.021,0.071 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.037,0.002,0.078 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.02,0.101 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.245,0.41 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.175,-0.307,-0.07 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.156,-0.32,-0.023 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.06,-0.148,0.003 @@ -177,12 +194,12 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.05,-0.143,0.021 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.144,-0.319,-0.014 FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.104,0.062 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.601,-0.036,-0.124,0.028 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.041,-0.136,0.049 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.027,-0.121,0.052 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.094,-0.254,0.04 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.041,-0.136,0.049 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.118,-0.28,0.02 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.375,0.75,-0.016,-0.114,0.064 -FlowState,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.008,-0.156,0.106 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,-0.003,-0.097,0.082 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.02,-0.037,0.088 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.299,0.239,0.36 @@ -194,12 +211,12 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.061,-0.046,0.178 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.023,-0.09,0.029 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.087,-0.019,0.192 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.074,-0.038,0.192 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.07,-0.021,0.169 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.082,-0.022,0.199 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.022,-0.035,0.076 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.07,-0.021,0.169 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.106,-0.02,0.219 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.092,-0.017,0.206 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.099,0.003,0.195 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.104,0.002,0.211 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.024,0.224 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.279,0.458 @@ -211,32 +228,15 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.034,-0.06,-0.009 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.127,-0.31,0.009 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.006,-0.037,0.024 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.02,-0.054,0.009 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.025,-0.077,0.021 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.011,-0.029,0.005 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.077,-0.217,0.025 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.025,-0.077,0.021 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.425,0.25,0.625,0.015,-0.068,0.102 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.101,-0.259,0.017 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.007,-0.12,0.111 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.013,-0.022,0.044 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.035,-0.009,0.085 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.227,0.399 -CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.166,-0.276,-0.073 -CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.147,-0.271,-0.041 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.051,-0.172,0.061 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.045,-0.166,0.068 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.042,-0.157,0.071 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.135,-0.291,-0.019 -CatBoost,TiRex,0.4,0.15,0.65,-0.013,-0.127,0.101 -CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.142,0.081 -CatBoost,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.032,-0.127,0.069 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.018,-0.128,0.094 -CatBoost,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.008,-0.119,0.135 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.109,-0.243,-0.003 -CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.007,-0.124,0.107 -CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.006,-0.102,0.111 -CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.701,0.028,-0.069,0.134 -CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.305,0.203,0.408 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.296,-0.075 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.153,-0.273,-0.063 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.057,-0.104,-0.015 @@ -245,12 +245,12 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.047,-0.085,-0.009 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.141,-0.311,-0.007 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.049,0.006 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.034,-0.078,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.038,-0.085,-0.002 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.024,-0.058,0.013 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.091,-0.224,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.038,-0.085,-0.002 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.375,0.175,0.575,0.003,-0.089,0.089 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.116,-0.268,-0.002 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.013,-0.046,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.006,-0.125,0.093 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.023,-0.016,0.067 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.301,0.218,0.39 @@ -262,12 +262,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.072,-0.134,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.168,-0.334,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.08,-0.01 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.058,-0.116,-0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.062,-0.112,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.048,-0.108,0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.117,-0.25,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.062,-0.112,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.021,-0.097,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.142,-0.288,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.037,-0.093,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.5,0.299,0.75,-0.029,-0.155,0.064 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.023,-0.072,0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.284,0.225,0.352 @@ -279,12 +279,12 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.498,-0.704,-0.333 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.632,-0.882,-0.428 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.457,-0.653,-0.311 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.692,-0.32 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.484,-0.695,-0.324 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.464,-0.683,-0.302 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.815,-0.356 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.484,-0.695,-0.324 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.426,-0.562,-0.314 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.845,-0.388 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.448,-0.664,-0.293 -Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.438,-0.689,-0.254 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.43,-0.64,-0.278 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.397,-0.544,-0.29 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv index cdc65eabccec4956dc62528bf55a69e81d4267ea..fc47de7b66396bf063449bf73d922884450e395d 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -4,16 +4,16 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.028,-0.029,0.094 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.094,0.021,0.174 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.096,0.024,0.176 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.103,0.026,0.189 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.037,-0.016,0.086 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.136,0.06,0.217 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.127,0.049,0.211 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.037,-0.016,0.086 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.127,0.049,0.215 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.135,0.067,0.208 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.077,0.025,0.132 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.067,0.012,0.124 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.135,0.067,0.208 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.143,0.056,0.233 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.161,0.079,0.242 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.162,0.082,0.243 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.169,0.087,0.257 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.104,0.255 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.425,0.58 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.029,-0.104,0.028 @@ -21,16 +21,16 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.067,-0.025,0.161 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,-0.02,0.161 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.077,-0.014,0.17 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.009,-0.1,0.092 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.111,0.038,0.193 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,0.021,0.189 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.009,-0.1,0.092 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.102,0.003,0.201 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.11,0.056,0.172 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.05,-0.022,0.114 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,-0.04,0.117 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.11,0.056,0.172 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.118,0.036,0.207 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.136,0.017,0.24 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.138,0.064,0.219 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.145,0.062,0.235 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.156,0.088,0.234 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.497,0.408,0.575 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.103,-0.21,-0.022 @@ -38,16 +38,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.072,-0.192,0.025 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.007,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.01,-0.003,0.024 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.062,-0.211,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,0.008,0.1 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.037,0.012,0.066 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.062,-0.211,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.037,0.012,0.064 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.046,-0.013,0.111 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.018,-0.15,0.081 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.029,-0.18,0.08 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.046,-0.013,0.111 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.054,0.021,0.093 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.074,0.015,0.142 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.075,0.029,0.132 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.054,0.121 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.04,0.161 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.377,0.537 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.106,-0.214,-0.024 @@ -55,16 +55,16 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.075,-0.192,0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.012,0.006 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.008,-0.005,0.019 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.065,-0.217,0.047 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.044,0.008,0.093 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.035,0.011,0.059 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.065,-0.217,0.047 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.035,0.008,0.064 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.043,-0.015,0.104 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.021,-0.148,0.078 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.032,-0.179,0.075 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.043,-0.015,0.104 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.052,0.019,0.086 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.071,0.011,0.141 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.073,0.024,0.127 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.053,0.115 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.093,0.041,0.154 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.376,0.536 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.115,-0.232,-0.026 @@ -72,33 +72,50 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.083,-0.205,0.014 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.01,-0.025,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.008,-0.02,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.073,-0.226,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.037,-0.001,0.082 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.027,0.011,0.044 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.073,-0.226,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.027,-0.001,0.055 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.036,-0.02,0.097 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.029,-0.162,0.071 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.04,-0.196,0.07 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.036,-0.02,0.097 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.044,0.019,0.072 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.064,-0.001,0.137 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.066,0.023,0.115 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.049,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.086,0.03,0.148 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.368,0.535 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.094,0.015 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.009,-0.102,0.091 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.059,-0.052,0.174 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.061,-0.049,0.178 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.068,-0.045,0.185 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.103,-0.011,0.219 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.094,-0.021,0.216 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.094,-0.022,0.209 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.041,-0.032,0.117 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.801,0.031,-0.018,0.09 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,-0.004,0.21 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.11,-0.014,0.232 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.128,0.021,0.24 +TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.13,0.014,0.243 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.148,0.038,0.257 +TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.398,0.572 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.158,-0.277,-0.063 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.125,-0.239,-0.039 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,-0.008 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.046,-0.102,-0.008 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.038,-0.089,0.001 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.115,-0.28,0.011 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.01,-0.054,0.028 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.115,-0.28,0.011 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.066,0.03 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.001,-0.043,0.034 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.069,-0.199,0.031 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.08,-0.223,0.037 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.001,-0.043,0.034 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.007,-0.031,0.042 TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.028,-0.064,0.099 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.03,-0.001,0.062 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.038,0.004,0.072 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.051,0.02,0.085 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.349,0.509 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.146,-0.267,-0.052 @@ -106,101 +123,101 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.114,-0.232,-0.022 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.039,-0.071,-0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.036,-0.062,-0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.028,-0.047,-0.012 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.103,-0.275,0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.01,-0.028,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.103,-0.275,0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.0,-0.041,0.034 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.045,0.065 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.058,-0.191,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.069,-0.227,0.049 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.045,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.018,0.003,0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.038,-0.043,0.118 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,-0.002,0.082 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.048,0.028,0.07 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.06,0.006,0.117 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.349,0.522 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.094,0.015 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.009,-0.102,0.091 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.059,-0.052,0.174 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.061,-0.049,0.178 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.068,-0.045,0.185 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.103,-0.011,0.219 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.094,-0.021,0.216 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.094,-0.022,0.209 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,-0.004,0.21 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.801,0.031,-0.018,0.09 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.11,-0.014,0.232 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.128,0.021,0.24 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.13,0.014,0.243 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.137,0.018,0.256 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.148,0.038,0.257 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.398,0.572 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.146,-0.274,-0.051 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.114,-0.252,-0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.039,-0.069,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.036,-0.068,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.028,-0.058,0.001 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.104,-0.264,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.031,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.0,-0.036,0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.104,-0.264,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.009,-0.061,0.078 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.058,-0.197,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.069,-0.226,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.009,-0.061,0.078 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.525,0.325,0.726,0.017,-0.018,0.057 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.038,-0.018,0.103 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.04,-0.01,0.096 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.016,0.085 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.06,0.009,0.121 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.354,0.52 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.156,-0.262,-0.072 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.124,-0.207,-0.06 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.048,-0.125,0.012 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.045,-0.116,0.014 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.037,-0.108,0.02 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.001,-0.035,0.041 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.07,0.043 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.266,0.004 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.009,-0.085,0.057 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.21,0.025 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.047,0.062 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.08,0.117 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.003,0.071 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.039,-0.017,0.094 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.052,0.014,0.094 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.344,0.513 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.083,-0.151,-0.025 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.053,-0.129,0.021 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.018,-0.088,0.13 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.021,-0.085,0.129 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.028,-0.077,0.139 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.043,-0.132,0.031 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.064,-0.032,0.166 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.055,-0.04,0.161 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.055,-0.054,0.164 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.01,-0.073,0.055 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,-0.02,0.154 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.071,-0.027,0.178 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.091,-0.037,0.206 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.092,0.005,0.187 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.112,0.024,0.205 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.47,0.372,0.556 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.072,-0.141,-0.012 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.132,0.039 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.028,-0.087,0.153 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.031,-0.082,0.152 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.038,-0.076,0.164 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.199,0.6,-0.032,-0.098,0.018 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.074,-0.038,0.182 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.064,-0.052,0.185 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.199,0.6,-0.032,-0.098,0.018 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.064,-0.053,0.185 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.026,0.174 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.01,-0.059,0.068 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.026,0.174 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.081,-0.038,0.2 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.1,-0.026,0.22 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.101,-0.015,0.209 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.299,0.75,0.109,-0.011,0.224 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.121,0.01,0.225 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.369,0.563 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.156,-0.262,-0.072 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.124,-0.207,-0.06 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.048,-0.125,0.012 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.045,-0.116,0.014 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.037,-0.108,0.02 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.266,0.004 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.001,-0.035,0.041 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.07,0.043 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.009,-0.085,0.057 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.183,0.019 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.21,0.025 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.047,0.062 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.08,0.117 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.003,0.071 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.052,0.014,0.094 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.344,0.513 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.166,-0.304,-0.06 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.133,-0.261,-0.038 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.057,-0.103,-0.022 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.054,-0.094,-0.019 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.046,-0.078,-0.02 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.123,-0.303,0.014 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.008,-0.044,0.03 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.018,-0.036,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.123,-0.303,0.014 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.475,0.274,0.675,-0.018,-0.061,0.018 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.066,0.045 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.077,-0.216,0.026 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.088,-0.249,0.036 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.066,0.045 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.65,0.021,-0.067,0.105 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.023,-0.016,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.031,0.011,0.053 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.043,-0.009,0.098 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.339,0.517 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.191,-0.319,-0.086 @@ -208,16 +225,16 @@ FlowState,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.158,-0.316,-0.017 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.08,-0.165,-0.015 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.077,-0.164,-0.011 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.069,-0.159,0.001 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.147,-0.315,-0.021 FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.029,-0.11,0.06 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.04,-0.134,0.041 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.147,-0.315,-0.021 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.039,-0.115,0.018 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.133,0.074 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.1,-0.259,0.036 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.111,-0.282,0.025 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.133,0.074 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.35,0.775,-0.021,-0.118,0.063 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.002,-0.099,0.1 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.01,-0.079,0.088 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.023,-0.039,0.107 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.347,0.483 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.193,-0.321,-0.09 @@ -225,50 +242,33 @@ Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.16,-0.28,-0.069 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.082,-0.151,-0.03 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.079,-0.145,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.07,-0.129,-0.024 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.149,-0.321,-0.014 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.031,-0.066,0.001 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.041,-0.09,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.149,-0.321,-0.014 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.041,-0.106,0.009 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.076,0.003 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.101,-0.23,-0.005 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.113,-0.265,0.015 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.076,0.003 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.023,-0.065,0.016 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.002,-0.111,0.09 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.009,-0.03,0.05 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.021,-0.019,0.068 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.417,0.325,0.5 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.204,-0.345,-0.096 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.17,-0.307,-0.067 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.138,-0.057 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.129,-0.056 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.115,-0.052 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.04,-0.078,-0.004 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.076,-0.029 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.159,-0.345,-0.018 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.05,-0.093,-0.016 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.104,0.017 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.701,-0.122,-0.289,0.011 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.032,-0.056,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.01,-0.097,0.073 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.009,-0.053,0.029 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.013,-0.039,0.069 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.321,0.499 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.342,-0.117 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.185,-0.306,-0.096 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.192,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.102,-0.182,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.094,-0.173,-0.031 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.174,-0.345,-0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.053,-0.093,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.064,-0.133,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.174,-0.345,-0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.064,-0.137,-0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.054,-0.104,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.126,-0.257,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.137,-0.29,-0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.054,-0.104,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.045,-0.109,0.009 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.024,-0.119,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.022,-0.073,0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.013,-0.074,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.324,0.474 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.046,-1.382,-0.739 @@ -276,15 +276,15 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.988,-1.351,-0.689 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.854,-1.162,-0.606 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.156,-0.602 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.835,-1.15,-0.581 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.97,-1.334,-0.661 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.038,-0.536 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.091,-0.537 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.97,-1.334,-0.661 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.083,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.053,-0.524 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.888,-1.254,-0.592 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.908,-1.29,-0.584 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.053,-0.524 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.754,-1.072,-0.514 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.717,-0.936,-0.532 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-1.001,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.7,-0.997,-0.473 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.678,-0.902,-0.479 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 6efd2389d2485da1acea39fc669a31af494a5e69..5c1828c66a7b6c5b27f906ee14680ed97e0f8bec 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -8,11 +8,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.045,-0.004,0.103 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.087,-0.267,0.056 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.057,-0.226,0.075 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.043,0.003,0.09 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.163,0.138 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.001,0.156 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.065,-0.023,0.161 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.074,0.015,0.147 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.051,-0.022,0.144 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.1,0.021,0.183 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.091,0.04,0.156 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.049,0.213 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.406,0.294,0.509 @@ -25,11 +25,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.044,0.007,0.085 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.088,-0.279,0.061 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.058,-0.219,0.057 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.042,0.014,0.076 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.002,-0.155,0.129 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.064,0.002,0.144 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.064,-0.039,0.166 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.073,0.022,0.133 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.05,-0.015,0.13 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.099,0.025,0.176 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.09,0.046,0.143 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.125,0.054,0.202 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.297,0.508 @@ -42,11 +42,11 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.106,0.015,0.201 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.018,-0.213,0.122 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.01,-0.074,0.085 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,-0.002,0.205 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.066,-0.029,0.175 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.125,0.044,0.212 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.125,-0.063,0.263 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.133,0.048,0.227 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.112,0.049,0.181 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.157,0.064,0.262 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.149,0.058,0.251 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.182,0.093,0.27 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.34,0.534 @@ -59,11 +59,11 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.139,0.044,0.234 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.02,-0.059,0.089 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.047,-0.029,0.141 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.137,0.05,0.233 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.101,0.009,0.201 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.157,0.058,0.271 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.157,0.06,0.256 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.165,0.065,0.268 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.144,0.055,0.25 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.188,0.089,0.289 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.18,0.083,0.281 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.118,0.303 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.464,0.359,0.555 @@ -76,11 +76,11 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.025,0.001,0.053 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.11,-0.306,0.048 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.079,-0.239,0.039 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.007,0.052 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.018,-0.18,0.106 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.046,-0.002,0.111 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.046,-0.077,0.158 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.055,0.017,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.031,-0.033,0.101 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.081,0.022,0.145 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.072,0.043,0.108 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.108,0.042,0.182 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.394,0.283,0.498 @@ -93,11 +93,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.138,-0.36,0.029 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.107,-0.26,0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.002,-0.036,0.031 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.044,-0.201,0.076 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.021,-0.022,0.069 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.021,-0.121,0.144 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,0.007,0.058 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.007,-0.049,0.064 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.058,0.004,0.114 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.048,0.028,0.069 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.085,0.021,0.151 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.268,0.479 @@ -110,11 +110,11 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.121,-0.029,0.265 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.028,-0.069,0.159 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.12,-0.025,0.262 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.083,-0.013,0.209 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.14,-0.024,0.302 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.14,0.009,0.268 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.148,-0.005,0.297 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.127,-0.02,0.282 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.172,0.039,0.309 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.164,0.015,0.306 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.196,0.066,0.33 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.454,0.341,0.552 @@ -127,11 +127,11 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.097,-0.006,0.206 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.028,-0.19,0.064 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.095,-0.013,0.207 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.057,-0.004,0.126 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.116,0.013,0.219 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.116,-0.067,0.252 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.021,0.233 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.102,0.02,0.2 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.148,0.05,0.251 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.14,0.037,0.247 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.173,0.079,0.266 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.339,0.522 @@ -144,14 +144,31 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.002,-0.032,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.136,-0.354,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.105,-0.261,0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.042,-0.203,0.088 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.023,-0.02,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.023,-0.106,0.127 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.525,0.324,0.75,0.032,-0.008,0.078 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.009,-0.054,0.07 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.4,0.825,0.059,-0.004,0.127 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.05,0.014,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.086,0.029,0.152 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.274,0.476 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.16,0.14 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.149,0.134 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.071,-0.212,0.028 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.112,-0.251,-0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.018,-0.119,0.152 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.042,-0.082,0.167 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.09,-0.264,0.013 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.06,-0.144,0.004 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.04,-0.097,0.169 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.063,-0.069,0.188 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.062,-0.136,0.222 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.051,0.189 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.048,-0.072,0.164 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.088,-0.032,0.206 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.123,0.026,0.227 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.404,0.3,0.496 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.185,0.001 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.069,-0.168,-0.002 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.143,-0.269,-0.046 @@ -161,11 +178,11 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.074,0.022 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.163,-0.433,0.023 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.131,-0.281,-0.013 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.024,-0.085,0.019 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.067,-0.231,0.065 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.0,-0.191,0.13 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.025,0.043 TiRex,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.015,-0.062,0.022 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.037,-0.006,0.1 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,-0.016,0.068 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.005,0.127 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.364,0.252,0.462 @@ -178,11 +195,11 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.022,-0.169,0.108 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.163,-0.367,-0.009 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.131,-0.337,0.062 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.024,-0.145,0.096 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.066,-0.285,0.12 FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.0,-0.149,0.16 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.424,0.825,0.01,-0.142,0.152 FlowState,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.015,-0.156,0.147 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.575,0.375,0.8,0.037,-0.124,0.18 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.119,0.164 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.675,0.474,0.85,0.065,-0.034,0.187 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.365,0.256,0.477 @@ -195,11 +212,11 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.031,-0.061,-0.007 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.174,-0.423,0.005 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.142,-0.303,-0.022 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.475,0.25,0.676,-0.034,-0.084,0.008 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.077,-0.233,0.048 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.01,-0.044,0.025 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.375,0.175,0.576,-0.01,-0.179,0.124 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.025,-0.088,0.032 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.028,-0.015,0.075 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.018,-0.001,0.037 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.374,0.776,0.056,-0.004,0.121 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.358,0.246,0.461 @@ -212,31 +229,14 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.007,-0.068,0.047 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.146,-0.393,0.02 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.114,-0.25,-0.02 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.009,-0.075,0.051 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.051,-0.197,0.068 citras-fm,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.015,-0.023,0.058 citras-fm,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.015,-0.172,0.135 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.024,-0.033,0.081 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.051,-0.007,0.121 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.042,-0.017,0.101 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,0.024,0.136 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.374,0.273,0.465 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.111,-0.224,-0.021 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.11,-0.213,-0.026 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.187,-0.355,-0.068 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.232,-0.406,-0.098 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.088,-0.169,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.061,-0.129,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.208,-0.448,-0.04 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.174,-0.335,-0.052 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.6,-0.063,-0.146,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.038,-0.111,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.425,0.2,0.625,-0.039,-0.22,0.11 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.029,-0.081,0.015 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.054,-0.138,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.01,-0.061,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.029,-0.025,0.087 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.34,0.237,0.445 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.1,-0.184,-0.042 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.099,-0.166,-0.049 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.175,-0.336,-0.061 @@ -246,11 +246,11 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.051,-0.074,-0.029 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.196,-0.442,-0.015 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.163,-0.328,-0.039 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.053,-0.095,-0.014 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.097,-0.259,0.031 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.028,-0.073,0.016 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.197,0.106 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.039,0.001 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.044,-0.112,0.017 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.01,-0.037,0.058 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.038,-0.022,0.104 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.346,0.231,0.451 @@ -263,11 +263,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.093,-0.178,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.244,-0.492,-0.07 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.209,-0.363,-0.085 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.095,-0.179,-0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.141,-0.293,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.069,-0.145,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.325,0.15,0.526,-0.07,-0.23,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.224,0.626,-0.059,-0.138,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.158,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.03,-0.095,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.04,-0.116,0.022 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.32,0.239,0.401 @@ -280,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.92,-0.366 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.83,-1.233,-0.517 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.091,-0.512 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.611,-0.907,-0.377 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.678,-0.986,-0.429 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.573,-0.859,-0.336 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.574,-0.911,-0.344 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.559,-0.857,-0.326 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.597,-0.868,-0.375 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.515,-0.802,-0.311 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.53,-0.822,-0.301 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.472,-0.669,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv index 6a6e1793ec797d938ddc7c98de6ae94bc1353f5f..a33a75f16da23878b51c87d21f360af8be9c84d0 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -6,13 +6,13 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.096,-0.209,-0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.023,-0.008,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.049,0.003,0.104 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.074,-0.24,0.054 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.019,-0.139,0.158 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.079,0.006,0.183 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.062,0.018,0.119 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.032,-0.188,0.092 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.021,0.173 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.082,-0.001,0.174 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.078,-0.003,0.184 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.124,0.04,0.217 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.108,0.05,0.182 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.145,0.065,0.242 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.414,0.624 @@ -23,13 +23,13 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.091,-0.209,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.002,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.053,0.015,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.069,-0.248,0.069 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.13,0.153 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.083,0.012,0.178 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.066,0.028,0.112 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.027,-0.179,0.088 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.092,0.031,0.164 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.086,-0.009,0.183 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.083,0.009,0.176 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.128,0.045,0.217 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.111,0.06,0.175 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.149,0.071,0.239 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.42,0.625 @@ -40,13 +40,13 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.049,-0.203,0.051 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.065,-0.057,0.173 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.09,-0.02,0.189 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.028,-0.236,0.119 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.06,-0.04,0.164 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.118,0.038,0.204 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.102,-0.007,0.204 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.012,-0.081,0.089 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.127,0.035,0.226 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.121,-0.079,0.259 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.118,0.06,0.181 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.161,0.069,0.262 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.146,0.05,0.25 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.182,0.097,0.263 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.447,0.636 @@ -57,13 +57,13 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.109,0.022,0.203 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.132,0.041,0.231 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.02,-0.053,0.084 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.105,0.009,0.216 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.056,0.281 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.144,0.056,0.239 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.059,-0.015,0.144 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.168,0.069,0.278 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.163,0.069,0.257 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.159,0.064,0.273 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.201,0.1,0.304 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.186,0.085,0.292 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.125,0.322 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.466,0.653 @@ -74,13 +74,13 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.122,-0.254,-0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.027,0.007,0.048 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.099,-0.29,0.05 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.005,-0.16,0.122 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,0.002,0.133 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,0.003,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.449,0.85,-0.056,-0.215,0.059 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.067,0.027,0.121 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.061,-0.057,0.168 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.057,-0.013,0.14 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.103,0.037,0.173 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.052,0.132 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.125,0.053,0.206 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.52,0.403,0.617 @@ -91,13 +91,13 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.152,-0.3,-0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.027,-0.051,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.129,-0.341,0.028 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.032,-0.183,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.023,0.096 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.025,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.085,-0.245,0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,0.011,0.081 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.035,-0.101,0.153 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.031,-0.032,0.104 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,0.019,0.142 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.062,0.035,0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.101,0.033,0.175 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.389,0.605 @@ -108,16 +108,33 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.021,-0.091,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.09,-0.053,0.225 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.114,-0.029,0.254 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.086,-0.009,0.224 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.142,-0.023,0.303 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.127,-0.011,0.265 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.039,-0.053,0.166 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.151,-0.005,0.305 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.145,0.024,0.264 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.142,-0.005,0.309 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.184,0.049,0.327 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.169,0.023,0.316 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.204,0.073,0.342 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.449,0.661 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.019,-0.188,0.122 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.023,-0.181,0.115 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.064,-0.196,0.038 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.117,-0.276,-0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.005,-0.139,0.138 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.031,-0.099,0.154 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.094,-0.288,0.009 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.062,-0.068,0.185 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.045,-0.091,0.169 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.051,-0.132,0.016 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.057,0.193 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.065,-0.142,0.221 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.061,-0.052,0.171 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.091,-0.027,0.205 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.129,0.032,0.23 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.522,0.417,0.617 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.086,-0.223,-0.006 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.091,-0.216,-0.012 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.134,-0.256,-0.039 @@ -125,13 +142,13 @@ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.19,-0.391,-0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.061,-0.154,-0.002 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.107,0.022 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.166,-0.436,0.023 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.066,-0.227,0.064 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.018,-0.087,0.027 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.12,-0.274,-0.002 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.01,-0.027,0.045 TiRex,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.003,-0.203,0.131 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.001,-0.042,0.034 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.006,0.11 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.031,-0.017,0.074 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.072,0.015,0.129 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.374,0.588 @@ -142,13 +159,13 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.169,-0.315,-0.06 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.086,-0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.053,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.145,-0.361,0.011 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.047,-0.203,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.018,-0.028,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.1,-0.253,0.016 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.525,0.324,0.75,0.028,-0.02,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.021,-0.112,0.119 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.017,-0.053,0.09 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.066,-0.001,0.134 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.048,0.009,0.091 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.825,0.65,0.975,0.088,0.032,0.151 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.5,0.386,0.596 @@ -159,13 +176,13 @@ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.062,-0.168,0.015 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.551,0.053,-0.063,0.177 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.078,-0.027,0.197 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.041,-0.199,0.051 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.049,-0.016,0.117 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.107,0.002,0.215 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.091,-0.017,0.202 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.116,0.012,0.228 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.11,-0.061,0.242 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.107,0.02,0.202 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.151,0.048,0.252 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.55,0.3,0.8,0.135,0.031,0.248 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.171,0.073,0.264 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.433,0.636 @@ -176,13 +193,13 @@ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.202,-0.386,-0.074 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.072,-0.137,-0.027 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.088,-0.011 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.178,-0.44,0.005 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.077,-0.239,0.054 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.01,-0.047,0.027 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.475,0.25,0.676,-0.029,-0.085,0.02 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.132,-0.295,-0.012 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.007,-0.188,0.13 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.074,0.05 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.039,-0.011,0.087 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.021,-0.003,0.042 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.062,-0.005,0.131 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.363,0.591 @@ -193,13 +210,13 @@ FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.194,-0.345,-0.074 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.065,-0.202,0.054 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.036,-0.181,0.092 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.17,-0.358,-0.024 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.069,-0.283,0.124 FlowState,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.003,-0.15,0.169 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.022,-0.136,0.101 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.124,-0.319,0.057 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.007,-0.149,0.158 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.004,-0.153,0.168 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.525,0.325,0.75,0.045,-0.115,0.2 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.121,0.17 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.424,0.825,0.069,-0.035,0.207 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.374,0.596 @@ -210,33 +227,16 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.189,-0.376,-0.068 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.06,-0.163,0.013 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.032,-0.116,0.031 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.165,-0.448,0.005 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.065,-0.206,0.049 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.001,-0.036,0.04 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.018,-0.098,0.05 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.119,-0.253,-0.02 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.053,0.069 citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.004,-0.202,0.133 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.049,-0.006,0.117 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.033,0.095 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.072,0.024,0.126 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.381,0.586 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.141,-0.278,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.146,-0.278,-0.048 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.192,-0.354,-0.074 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.251,-0.437,-0.111 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.115,-0.21,-0.039 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.165,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.226,-0.486,-0.052 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.051,-0.124,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.07,-0.155,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.177,-0.336,-0.05 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.04,-0.095,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.475,0.25,0.675,-0.047,-0.249,0.103 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.133,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.075,0.031 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.025,-0.037,0.088 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.355,0.565 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.12,-0.223,-0.052 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.125,-0.211,-0.063 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.17,-0.334,-0.052 @@ -244,13 +244,13 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.228,-0.412,-0.092 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.152,-0.055 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.066,-0.102,-0.037 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.203,-0.462,-0.024 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.1,-0.258,0.026 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.032,-0.08,0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.051,-0.1,-0.009 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.2,0.7,-0.156,-0.33,-0.032 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.021,-0.043,0.003 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.205,0.108 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.033,-0.105,0.032 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.018,-0.032,0.07 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.042,-0.022,0.11 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.475,0.354,0.578 @@ -261,13 +261,13 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.282,-0.474,-0.143 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.143,-0.259,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.113,-0.212,-0.034 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.256,-0.519,-0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.148,-0.299,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.077,-0.148,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.175,0.025,0.35,-0.097,-0.178,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.207,-0.36,-0.079 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.067,-0.151,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.375,0.175,0.576,-0.074,-0.261,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.078,-0.144,-0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.025,-0.096,0.036 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.044,-0.124,0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.356,0.542 @@ -278,13 +278,13 @@ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.338,-1.884,-0.874 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.084,-1.61,-0.674 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.029,-1.533,-0.638 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.291,-1.947,-0.814 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.094,-1.61,-0.716 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.965,-1.426,-0.596 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.001,-1.473,-0.629 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.201,-1.748,-0.763 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.945,-1.446,-0.57 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.958,-1.477,-0.598 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.966,-1.417,-0.615 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.298,-0.551 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.904,-1.367,-0.548 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.824,-1.184,-0.553 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/pivot_MASE.csv b/tables/pivot_MASE.csv index 4f312f5e6b4d09086003f3968034e23db5479396..eac348046c55cfaee4a7e95afffe77ce2980a3e2 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_MASE.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,citras-fm,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,Sundial-Base,LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,TFT,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.6948579833,0.6822409568000001,0.6846123728,0.7098695815160712,0.689935194,0.7187969112,0.7051491417,0.7295309855000001,0.793677643151081,0.7004368823,0.7420629047825577,0.7568653271,0.7579922997,0.723840339,0.7033446593,0.7033446593,0.8242286029,0.7138930444,0.8610694555,0.9168897756,0.8257395692,0.7336183213,0.8700823458,0.9168897756,1.4293457268,0.8021815134,0.9168897756,1.367085413,1.4150880996 -ETT_1D,1.3413765406,1.3787860328,1.360545199,1.36279909482833,1.3591429885,1.3268087393,1.360219481,1.3611067531,1.3578458981957091,1.4394103535,1.3468648594200343,1.3683723528,1.3947065684,1.377158803,1.3461045624,1.3461045624,1.484646319,1.4174248495,1.4351120194,1.4122431199,1.4872294951,1.5713644181,1.5628515494,1.4311893597,1.4375543872,1.4485203553,1.4915469769,1.4615227255,1.4930705467 -ETT_1H,1.1259593459,1.1204467796,1.122678271,1.1020584482257614,1.1157883861,1.1177931254,1.1219144676,1.1239074864,1.1738904930964569,1.1194544043,1.122282569347694,1.1127046988,1.1712822213,1.1424635969,1.1267224636,1.1267224636,1.2734627054,1.1439289261,1.2995570797,1.25185511,1.2013262258,1.1991486501,1.2305514028,1.2616150048,1.6020946232000002,1.2846906491,1.3227158902,1.7184141817,1.7823323361 -ETT_1W,2.6985268972,2.6199424094,2.6699548659,2.653318956876155,2.6461028202,2.6203818492,2.6378253434000003,2.6215325734,2.644196438594287,2.6346020602,2.615573617371344,2.6380752207,2.7896417157,2.563194657,2.6260535626,2.6260535626,3.3055190246,2.7153947044,3.0028333129,2.687435829,3.0473440496,2.8755024749,2.9565073639,2.7471494,2.639318245,2.836818906,2.6201185675,2.6201185675,2.7818783778 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.9599506578,0.9579830351,0.9578190652,0.9555184077055978,0.9648075817,0.9691232132,0.9736365263,0.9509504822,0.9438379691476998,0.9422797551,0.9874560313769576,1.0272610815,0.9654904198,1.0347277286,0.9859320353,0.9859320353,1.2016962021,0.9847669395,1.1816395787,0.9983198512,1.0402225391,1.1375366653,1.1992106287,0.9888675351,1.0016712982,1.0222727749,1.1753801193,2.1046903267,2.3737898199 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.7939256021000001,0.795350258,0.7872736520000001,0.8136396058150277,0.7860718165,0.8196171969,0.8226133174,0.7539313161000001,0.8318402755938443,0.7993754614,0.8482035667358524,0.8717742443000001,0.8370969172,0.9197608815,0.9188719384,0.9188719384,0.915332077,0.9012445092,0.8835096642,1.1788577267,0.8142373427,0.8612672879000001,0.8981771386,1.2962678389,1.6371768884,1.1797622797,1.3516779896,1.7163837436,1.9650972805 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.6812013944,0.7149303517000001,0.6889477042000001,0.6980924220035479,0.6969426203,0.6919744544,0.6838622591,0.7344527311,0.8836114418496782,0.7500733656,0.8852135969472826,0.6997103049000001,0.7546823776,0.6934857939,0.8058940049000001,0.8058940049000001,0.8566762556,0.7671902281,0.8686562835,0.9579580065,0.7001922191000001,0.7610540434,0.6955110819,0.9670797246,0.9723147051,0.9937342142,0.8255932623000001,1.0149350736,1.17225325 -M_DENSE_1D,0.7721472947,0.9109927491,0.8865839595,0.9410791159552512,0.9041932079,0.906568838,1.0025138642,0.8575514752000001,0.9191123276584352,0.8863101287,0.8987780479853281,1.0265246067,0.9337187833,1.0479700759,0.9249126478,0.9249126478,0.9083450871,0.8999893558000001,0.8778251039,1.0509325086,0.8542622858000001,1.153609221,1.1581361171,1.1689597475,1.0868806446,1.0771913074,1.3500254894,1.7292480127,1.7668414612 -M_DENSE_1H,0.7132003566,0.7088544558000001,0.7190468239000001,0.7258552868601902,0.7194327349,0.7118568045,0.7450523741,0.6693472692,0.7086907658337513,0.6932401261000001,0.7317594063334079,0.7538921314,0.8066497468,0.8808963281000001,0.7173406573000001,0.7173406573000001,0.7014697541,0.775167995,0.7210938459,1.1917704371,0.7150880822,0.7217462966,0.7204275549,1.1833753259,1.4834949411,1.4265921408,1.2398526625,2.9336598257,3.2462087096 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.4999875762,0.5014580092,0.5007707106,0.503288866620645,0.5007849306000001,0.5028743388,0.5055042958,0.5037458634,0.5078754252599722,0.5064993039,0.5101628294679348,0.5100451422,0.5252377094,0.5087373921,0.5100343921,0.5100343921,0.5411960582,0.5133618160000001,0.5625857080000001,0.6992652749,0.5207171737,0.5126723942,0.5210514709,0.6992652749,0.6812952232,0.5704736669,0.6992652749,0.7537395673,0.7757872119 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.4878765611,0.4812890819,0.482373136,0.4864850316362479,0.4778644873,0.498580982,0.4855926557,0.5174781059,0.4996925514889351,0.5317927987000001,0.5196991340357957,0.4937505277,0.5577744373,0.495501714,0.5054399825,0.5054399825,0.6910333031,0.6129421994,0.6701382322,0.5582147151,0.932408237,0.8237992834000001,0.6130439224,0.6365009357,1.6334537313,0.7816119684,0.6288121202,0.7531606591000001,0.8861734090000001 -australian_tourism,0.8548582992,0.9478427594,0.9714877728,0.9476627483401264,0.9754443766,0.9757973312,1.0629594743,0.9190089622,0.878514946676819,1.0798094778,0.9774632244815712,1.1326224117,0.8858826955,1.1731406372,1.1608053971,1.1674188048,1.0816787923,0.9146409764,1.0897352711,0.932305264,1.0028198148,1.0972140084,1.1526528545,1.0124394957,0.9667110181,1.04493495,1.0994521121,1.5829350532,1.7960279887 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3841207818,0.3408859156,0.3609887926,0.4378117769132353,0.3528233163,0.4680641032,0.3718131352,0.4101674745,0.4713277289196166,0.4735338011,0.4455885693617856,0.4697050836,0.4412852355,0.4234612798,0.4308821621,0.4308821621,0.5354548175,0.4647078621,0.5292632714000001,0.7567537453000001,0.7868411301,0.4593050754,0.7027408582,0.7748607981000001,0.8231641039,0.7957254012,1.0658712668,0.770715573,0.7758078121 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.5169197944,0.5508818741,0.5829501848,0.773597142449272,0.6126677916000001,0.7958699987000001,0.6669647305,0.5787129565,0.4638850239470942,0.4724046694,0.7893047890159931,0.7123202473,0.6759668751,0.7280379650000001,0.8001548601,0.8001548601,0.7576234547,0.4807818165,0.7530991442,0.8068916052,0.7415100462,0.4517902946,0.9601708627,0.9163295651,0.8137417988000001,0.8740253861,1.066667663,0.7577504477,0.9386117894 -boomlet_1062,0.6776940987,0.6609747105,0.6606980044,0.6826954909881108,0.6615311338000001,0.6804959719,0.6659740307,0.6916399125,0.6729176632873578,0.8459869381,0.7009528855934714,0.6694294923,0.6864428113000001,0.6681502327000001,0.7155932844,0.7110111917,0.9009499291,0.7574670104,0.983198758,1.001957498,0.6829491529,0.7766256129,0.7395954156,0.9510023881,1.0502749743,1.0704423845,0.9949683405,1.3078709214,1.4225120109 -boomlet_1209,0.7987706683,0.6966365640000001,0.6990806608,0.8144836579258528,0.7058283912000001,0.8520639528,0.7189732508000001,0.817915323,0.9085046653002344,0.8206509265,0.8237688106540798,0.7438108964,1.1329505801,0.7548459037,0.8596275977000001,0.8460080888,0.9742643589,0.8887982072,0.9927704971,1.0454166606,0.8449015717,0.8901775771,1.0758361408,1.0378800284,1.182723008,1.1056064011,1.182723008,1.0545734266,1.2621289082 -boomlet_1225,0.2322508868,0.2253831627,0.2257014378,0.2324249468110782,0.2260180215,0.23385127,0.2279137051,0.2365234802,0.2482808495726347,0.2608782244,0.2409160148742846,0.2292332053,0.2548827881,0.2319546529,0.2436207852,0.2540221929,0.2483559023,0.2531870103,0.255820597,0.2904167695,0.258063735,0.2349179014,0.2379781079,0.2751876374,0.3006939878,0.300311449,0.3736491911,0.3736491911,0.3806842404 -boomlet_1230,1.3704917157,1.2606545329,1.2513427528,1.3392683100879688,1.2562088129,1.3783150883,1.2731721241,1.3669883474,1.499230875085562,1.3560446132,1.3479829889439716,1.2914040369,1.6438639324,1.2886466565,1.4190498695,1.3475047975,1.3771614682,1.4532188179,1.4274055249,1.5513275427000002,1.4091302803,1.481031891,1.8334681089,1.5864986165,1.7204862257,1.5854205321,1.8986209596,1.5631970242,1.7478394787 -boomlet_1282,0.5228616907,0.4949953975,0.4940530382,0.499666098560459,0.4809766906,0.4966357076,0.5032166153000001,0.4938256797,0.5047759934413311,0.5263091029,0.5230375222620778,0.498044,0.4985242795,0.5044697129,0.5229602389,0.5646901433,0.7178772331000001,0.5169242862,0.7317596636,0.6397695785,0.5180741413000001,0.5027685914,0.5066337876,0.5924898439,0.6889630608,0.6909553108,0.8299193956,0.8299193956,0.8508297191 -boomlet_1487,0.5106600397000001,0.4579588342,0.4604636434,0.5218629824429614,0.4625465232,0.5187314203,0.4846863637,0.5025569431,0.5357046838055305,0.5050021535,0.5379139872189995,0.4821733648,0.603314758,0.5140178453,0.5276634616,0.5268262269,0.5296842807000001,0.5573472172,0.6314985567,0.6620511052,0.5979691349,0.6717577761,0.6117813544,0.6561515256,0.6618622150000001,0.6861485332,0.7188988305,0.7369858229,0.8583652224 -boomlet_1631,0.7130379666000001,0.6997154337,0.7015356460000001,0.7371722095464446,0.703163705,0.7478094023,0.7194841727,0.7223220364,0.7786935302332815,0.7354042866,0.7544764970836776,0.7229964925,0.8506283431,0.7249658802000001,0.7328154062000001,0.7407561886,0.7840087741,0.7619771372,0.8647964118,0.7740257154,0.7814225241,0.7786794832,0.7848358986,0.7906855409,0.7850787272,0.7886353998000001,0.9935726646,0.8639891086,0.8923058217000001 -boomlet_1676,0.7074172167,0.6699169469,0.6764797512,0.6973986358886518,0.6743446133000001,0.7093011570000001,0.6840990988,0.6981823925,0.7339912071494414,0.719171338,0.7286748406082371,0.6909120682000001,0.941119625,0.6926736692000001,0.71281142,0.7192465271,0.7522987645,0.7138061614,0.7812367057,0.7494246952,0.7432737809000001,0.7490851966000001,0.7322209578000001,0.7591052795000001,0.7609898904,0.7772233416000001,0.9529052669,0.81987192,0.8566079838 -boomlet_1855,0.5381849547,0.5145184302,0.5128522002,0.5362403104124752,0.514113728,0.5278191197000001,0.5227952786,0.5502667938,0.6051056434432255,0.5614568998,0.5421797141841631,0.5279610563,0.6490616251,0.5273872371,0.5430454496,0.5502545492,0.6300995462,0.59756436,0.6443521790000001,0.7137233977,0.5882019439,0.6087498133,0.6601553614,0.7334421188,0.7732640617000001,0.7479719213,0.8339307568000001,0.6805939709000001,0.6861913698000001 -boomlet_1975,0.1607432077,0.1085105687,0.1070662016,0.1653173377209592,0.1091500465,0.2344681773,0.139129764,0.2045403061,0.3057768255460699,0.2030396724,0.1971310105590683,0.1496109643,0.2465433583,0.1731066392,0.2722386236,0.2157351987,0.3279616223,0.2358591523,0.5089229918,0.5885200843,0.1466542199,0.2365125104,0.5988035242,0.6455594352,0.6992926383,0.5697333183000001,0.9041727836,0.6991117243,0.7004387023 -boomlet_2187,0.8118519659000001,0.7767280125,0.7761157425,0.8266596416546982,0.7753872854,0.8085306332000001,0.7939046721,0.8936367366,0.948676925541869,0.8508444429,0.8334454751823456,0.8811612149,1.0001214827,0.8149521723,0.906991314,0.8784198422,0.9130007445,0.9507442206,0.9202249676,1.1813669206,0.8724280664,1.010583197,1.1750197869,1.2812206596,1.2537471966,1.2716040455,1.3439772561,1.1574962315,1.1700732508 -boomlet_285,0.3587658623,0.3158490678,0.3171912154,0.3823857357509364,0.3221439734,0.4007113978,0.3389889824,0.4216519857,0.4210275195145369,0.5568651654,0.4177673457875075,0.3605982928,0.4002584094,0.3682962451,0.4705093941,0.5250469045,0.5225346821,0.5605665968,0.4692106421,0.7526380616,0.4525853339,0.506879478,0.510662162,0.7883015484,0.8132574198,0.7305756429,1.248763342,1.248763342,1.279213524 -boomlet_619,0.4234249126,0.3771200669,0.3787171506,0.4128062205392041,0.38259119,0.4418338302,0.3916098008,0.4363557109,0.4300836368012588,0.689863012,0.4558095394668141,0.4028513106,0.4267055503,0.4108826152,0.4306276624,0.5940973906,0.6168268245,0.435636804,1.3661388609,1.0046773678,0.4094911687,0.4245417333,0.4107135092,0.7170247035,1.0937660345,1.0200015792,1.123557013,1.123557013,1.1484320661 -boomlet_772,0.331309455,0.3106213898,0.3116732543,0.3396458390708813,0.3153004522,0.3435360988,0.3239342816,0.3429964059,0.3542699813786648,0.409874632,0.362754039950615,0.3280438006,0.3626989978,0.338194603,0.3651670048,0.395616382,0.3866455226,0.3920487456,0.4043528583,0.5801758941,0.4066417931,0.3577082621,0.3805851509,0.5361147753000001,0.6702469426000001,0.6163309517000001,0.6290173238,0.6290173238,0.6468050230000001 -boomlet_963,0.8390323132,0.8182268197,0.8196122673,0.8146820472774033,0.8230222503,0.8276719302000001,0.8306712701000001,0.8600331872,0.9157018587749404,0.8562509823000001,0.8596144098930136,0.8246017838,0.8944246506,0.8394387670000001,0.8725943653,0.8956313018000001,1.0280335706,0.849173272,0.948977253,1.1173343953,0.907609144,0.8447978177000001,0.8697191168,1.1099255265,1.2932431719,1.1004606123,1.1186074152,1.1186074152,1.1367798387 -ecdc_ili,2.7551221016,2.9431670054,2.9542061828,2.6791186626779258,2.9977870968,2.8841261467,2.9480610447,2.6316220322,2.9048747296854383,2.5805091261,2.876180453780843,3.0278162773,2.7527976977,3.0258995,2.9286752581,3.1427261127,2.6359504213,3.0367688213,2.657299556,4.3217167895,3.9105289156,3.2819381761,3.8844924376,4.196380557,4.5974303507,4.2528905671,4.1680850511,4.1680850511,4.3553339737 -entsoe_15T,0.5846139379,0.569718461,0.5431857518000001,0.5650102084351702,0.5639128032,0.5986061732,0.6201839279,0.590316623,0.7863095468387914,0.5955240132,0.6043646408848564,0.7465877723000001,0.5948239303,0.7510873579,0.5933312667,0.6061735158,0.9042372943,0.7577799507,0.8380750606,0.9314586877,0.6895044967,0.6513695576,0.9314586877,0.9314586877,4.0070290377,0.7298062907,0.9314586877,1.9045500173,2.054795932 -entsoe_1H,0.5379602554,0.506635881,0.5236082079000001,0.5998621394629227,0.5260385524,0.58538039,0.5546733890000001,0.5848723984,0.4866813449649518,0.6642019123,0.565084488,0.5917456396,0.5374125945,0.6434937263,0.5924217664,0.5564475511,0.6518687919,0.8117895189000001,0.5970910659,1.1146901489,0.7511157308,0.9665956021,0.7089755944,1.1176425509,2.0475241329,1.1626008296,1.1014887289,2.0553482057,2.1575810319 -entsoe_30T,0.54381558,0.5318373326,0.5194053695,0.6265212724447536,0.5665103512,0.6645923588,0.5513736822,0.6957880429000001,0.6941938566372617,0.6069293442,0.6462294849047346,0.6243758030000001,0.6344114167,0.6901045677000001,0.5973972914,0.6326216283,0.7535617677,0.7796412031000001,0.6559652231,1.05779406,0.7318349688,0.7141332243,0.6878794011,1.2299298771,3.2738378913,1.0040370922,1.2161815078,2.073335635,2.0462298002 -epf_be,0.6470253268,0.6610861132,0.6515935809,0.6664771070064072,0.6364914123000001,0.6743990432,0.6826692584,0.6101898106,0.6814597294522857,0.6999904159,0.6266718033132894,0.7042198580000001,0.6880825659,0.7241654255000001,0.6709379475,0.7272945514,0.7447461558,0.7222255864,0.8069993803000001,0.9814265937,0.8105043893,0.6918850356,0.7626864710000001,1.0947820435,1.3929299654,1.019365079,1.0270532223,1.3609414406,1.3744478756 -epf_de,0.6042262072,1.2370873614,1.2246197143,0.6103813594737576,1.3157466789,1.2971030742,1.2518412727,1.2798888006,0.5606975009726158,1.237667145,0.7941170656292134,1.3271832988,0.5800212967,1.2874905998,1.2281781823,1.2655264374,1.092293938,1.3227461317,1.0961059598,1.3821005791,0.6564578669000001,0.5726050284,0.7567964518,1.6231051649,1.7417113185000002,1.4071982205,1.7085952976,1.7417238545,1.7695509328 -epf_fr,0.4500649094,0.4906993318,0.4959833887,0.4339901028094799,0.4951128679,0.5040405628,0.5358316805000001,0.4906901879,0.4743786134829068,0.4753843786,0.516455027,0.5301954839,0.4217844752,0.5498386051,0.5034595497000001,0.563837892,0.5789717952,0.5243569292,0.5540351793,0.7410271156,0.4932962165,0.4212014349,0.5154397984,0.9888394091,0.9665291582,0.8447495988,0.8501188696,1.1603445451,1.1771067551 -epf_np,0.8501928867,1.2373426181,1.2408393607,0.796162829483358,1.2398006235,1.2225513098,1.2300520468,1.4402381084,0.7829914400614069,1.2973480411,0.9649422555038154,1.3535797092,0.8826980086,1.4172606236,1.1997562792,1.2409440129,1.2030410689,1.0947012554,1.3024697377,1.5147683467,0.8588874058,0.8061075470000001,0.9947793628,1.7096191338,2.3244017947,1.5140205757,1.7613035948,2.3154975167,2.3147871572 -epf_pjm,0.4718977319,0.5063979983,0.5252307866,0.469692179239839,0.510218339,0.505779341,0.5305707284,0.5310653268000001,0.4720625830563789,0.6080936088000001,0.5446976180665436,0.5842271476,0.5438061755,0.5260131896,0.5630774052,0.5357283062,0.5970346754,0.5214143203,0.5975950790000001,0.5294741765000001,0.4279164596,0.4647764228,0.4528047725,0.5572886505,0.9847286217,0.6832479847,0.5811678677000001,0.9849340043,0.9983940734 -ercot_1D,1.1382701719,1.1641182069,1.1165048715,1.038209758130582,1.0424844276,1.0650322652,1.1535828877,1.068637663,1.0795392998433684,1.1395682476,1.1363258605604731,1.1719804165,1.2574471238,1.1099477241,1.2043415014,1.1504591796,1.1560832976,1.1023893836,1.1613994614,1.5207401260000002,1.182196644,1.4337895652,1.1305420796,1.3979692312,1.595269776,1.5801932033,1.5987746677,1.5840542368,1.5904988370000002 -ercot_1H,1.3575339606,1.3924226326,1.3822958144,1.473701113259639,1.4187095408,1.3770444388,1.4117552424,1.4902438442,1.4292818008743051,1.6178435651,1.4056431032159344,1.4158731227,1.5778620760000002,1.4387363625,1.3940552328,1.3914156057,1.5894603436,1.4647042938,1.6141545065,1.610467348,1.4253824233,1.5656382679,1.5757631517,1.4621684966,3.1968392544,1.5835894253,1.5757631517,3.1089999601,3.1208482515 -ercot_1M,0.9503422041,0.9287471551,0.9487285869,0.9974073347601854,0.9371509595,1.0121701443,0.9708948781,0.9788665856,0.9560713460009584,0.9454338592,0.9784896632637966,1.270421568,0.9385687314,1.0538329276,1.2434972664,0.9921791059,1.1003515104,1.0612308441,1.1319534585,0.9720301012,1.1664616476,1.1876314306,1.0876854916,0.9971197992,0.9527701456,1.2051001064,1.1128334801,4.4343715437,4.8730234296 -ercot_1W,1.2194616983,1.1911534584,1.1782190115,1.214287011730811,1.1961903987,1.2277888843,1.240747847,1.1887344203,1.2840224773703113,1.2217926781,1.2382095816675656,1.3488551912,1.394605238,1.2496382187,1.3362468555,1.2261966347,1.5134613082,1.4770568791,1.5178949884,2.6623042198,1.4755174127,1.307670159,1.2938055453,2.6323348170000003,2.6788985121,2.6620757829,2.6319098754,2.6319098754,2.6294908678 -favorita_stores_1D,1.1401981382,1.1823552413,1.182964035,1.1919727819505723,1.1923625249,1.1934094374,1.2354348051,1.1675502675,1.228625222554556,1.2360938889,1.2364241436735808,1.2801444971,1.1868447032,1.2673381544,1.2046882587,1.2688834672,1.2169457375,1.2200293401,1.2374486446,1.3399997306,1.3109793637,1.2704211946,1.3004775575,1.4187797289,1.3798606392,1.3758675561,1.7590444109,1.8830413742,1.8964809388 -favorita_stores_1M,1.9751999633,2.0296713013,2.0281958552,2.0410154811461245,2.0500079833,2.214706385,1.9849134839,2.233793585,2.1805709937861883,2.195197896,2.147874313403656,2.2858750846,2.170036951,2.1137839937,2.3235561887,2.4178143704,2.3704432246,2.4060388473,2.4362983732,2.118127913,2.336525108,2.2823009563,2.2823009563,2.2074958895,2.1221172414,2.1335008073,2.2823009563,1.9974006109,2.0640825606 -favorita_stores_1W,2.2987283752,2.4064013135,2.4007034903,2.3511886465211687,2.4043801441,2.4234607684,2.4047551592,2.2900534401,2.421557830898272,2.3655419654,2.399906633162775,2.5078891882,2.4479974876,2.4402828885,2.5772702449,2.4748929321,2.4201344249,2.561243423,2.4844421105,2.4339800044,2.5217672478,2.4232218822,2.5673966331,2.5800667865,2.5164520416,2.476802227,2.5171133606,2.5171133606,2.5526381129 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.8493705653,1.0353608414,1.1573638534,1.1375694594581205,1.1100897944,1.3492617117,1.1727163782,1.1514968035,1.6147813022500948,1.1514968035,1.4792351736280978,1.1514968035,1.5712520327,1.3311112487,1.1514968035,1.1514968035,1.310724942,1.324712294,1.4453713127,1.2657781229,1.2084848745,1.9481818856,1.4298920054,1.7409399798,1.276505121,1.251106381,1.8200471813,1.8618151909,1.8593809024 -favorita_transactions_1M,1.2531106718,1.2828414504,1.3435767996,1.3714270611236168,1.3494353969,1.3596174252,1.3639966097,1.3315992307,1.405531832482585,1.3153338778,1.409558750682126,1.6619691023,1.4151267612,1.5362401164,1.6105439915000002,1.6365070607,1.546237101,1.6184833791000002,1.5468854988,1.3044405926,1.5197338049,1.98216984,1.5197338049,1.4642002985,1.3424992817,1.4898451606,1.5197338049,1.4299319033,1.6051275322 -favorita_transactions_1W,1.498824744,1.6123778191,1.5728431085,1.647847823698585,1.7727330014,1.7464561675,1.6801341964,1.7479484664,2.124324012257304,1.5921709721,2.064762486225089,1.9439221964,2.2363168469,1.7638409898,1.6846164407000002,1.7479484664,1.428234155,2.0992640534,1.9071822198,1.6323769089,1.9621951948,1.7163896187,1.9812367119,1.7908497992,1.682650009,1.7230820318000002,1.5401800861,1.5401800861,1.6333667239 -fred_md_2025/cee,4.1602404727,4.2810194365,4.4451599484,3.863760537809776,4.2579071984,3.9913296788,3.9665827387,5.4995170834,5.77108104016366,5.4995170834,4.357870913848788,5.4995170834,4.4307139809,4.2152701653,5.4995170834,5.4995170834,4.6328539376,5.6396642877000005,4.3179064296,4.1492831363,8.6979801738,8.4423283749,6.0133928686,6.365691742,4.1316583154,4.726817575,11.8701519825,6.7148852109,4.690209854 -fred_md_2025/macro,6.7212231389,5.9119829967,5.9724499394,6.194276830261809,6.0259125296,6.2436277361,6.021655579,6.8925264049,8.04535440935118,6.8925264049,6.114909612373818,6.8925264049,7.5109039809,6.141199899,6.8925264049,6.8925264049,6.3882787546,6.9855690276,6.3128442527,6.4760151334,8.1092379319,9.15860551,7.3365073203,7.2903875836,6.5541834584,6.7085954556,11.2729489135,7.1693509627,6.6706675457 -fred_qd_2025/cee,2.7861575553,2.2826534178,2.1876748888,2.013262977485245,2.1967951143,2.500721068,2.2053211634,2.5230363793,2.966857507337953,2.54380052,2.7032668680938765,2.1384502336,2.6188175963,2.2072154018,2.7932979221,2.9552802132,2.5165776347,4.1237296063,2.4572431853,2.2117006307,5.9092673654,5.3131602834,4.675205254,2.306650384,2.4969928857,2.5784767383,5.726470449,4.3666041799,2.5885780481 -fred_qd_2025/macro,4.2345766276,4.0720868682,4.0683505949,4.040068482163627,4.0492349186,4.2532915594,4.0304717642,4.2312964397,4.871297310271108,4.2487781258,4.188447749,4.0394401598,4.7360907702,4.2281567791,4.3026427834,4.4204307215,4.3215014285,5.0800217147,4.2447347559,4.2291679593,5.5406855364,5.7305128854,4.9183163493,4.483710003,4.4466602883,4.4089306091000005,6.2532543651,4.9115310902,4.3735328235 -gvar,0.7105251308,0.6757247819000001,0.6737140403,0.6859033203844243,0.6770418089,0.7074487038,0.6837591879,0.7192074318,0.731355403616328,0.710248642,0.7178383137879448,0.7017894885,0.7338663915,0.7084618488000001,0.7279795764,0.7294646087000001,0.7164579825,0.8613958999,0.708557575,0.6831004762,0.9262540915,0.8360167586,0.7834478609000001,0.7032889312,0.7021303883000001,0.6996326454,0.9186013679,0.743084203,0.6965206862000001 -hermes,0.7761148416,0.8179876234,0.8140635648000001,0.8445970494671015,0.8260161196,0.8309937735,0.8550402934,0.7871785515,0.7883870532501273,0.8049597833000001,0.8222926795723969,1.2021343473,0.8078334610000001,0.9091406926,0.8853610448,0.8579267339000001,1.1717275135,0.959480348,1.1831678061,1.8121215322,1.1763520165,1.0859588046,1.5452963565,1.5317415283,1.985223889,1.8477529336,1.9945193442,1.9945193442,2.047216325 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.6889480283,0.6817861283000001,0.6866918662,0.6877419580451609,0.6864295594000001,0.6853563816,0.6909932359000001,0.6882027169,0.6859945254167992,0.6895204716000001,0.6897740197718181,0.6813986428000001,0.7088689694,0.6891306336,0.6860304902000001,0.6860304902000001,0.8940101514000001,0.7291028689,0.6884073577,0.8130155529,0.7068089934,0.6951836985000001,0.6970371604000001,0.7735716435000001,0.8639978192000001,0.8693462265,0.9949475154,1.0417563417,1.0525564497 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.7539268543000001,0.7629283834,0.7615608813,0.7625179732454902,0.7638073422,0.756678048,0.7710459945,0.7507699979,0.7585132368825315,0.7521263682,0.7593217293802705,0.7797256533,0.7695972825,0.7760131051,0.7733116563,0.7733116563,0.7843729859,0.8055524179,0.7892378,0.9004451111,0.8167539611,0.7943708872,0.8434878870000001,0.9125112587,1.0341883931,0.9154643579,1.161708021,1.161708021,1.1894416413 -hospital,0.8734575212000001,0.8671681389,0.8679956431,0.8684245566885246,0.8665279916,0.8749408189000001,0.8692955815000001,0.8629412820000001,0.8526429777187913,0.8868294147,0.8910088390293787,0.9209462669,0.8808895033,0.8905833847,0.8888399512,0.8888399512,1.1000360569,0.9575868855,1.0844048735,0.8766229994,1.0227631325,1.0139733105,0.9839730481,0.9191221956,0.9080008204,0.9215507224,1.0188066508,1.1050470796,1.1736654924 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.7170504383,0.7167227919,0.7167544131,0.7174711619721541,0.7170635256,0.7179794464,0.7174107913000001,0.7193032148,0.7168159429745188,0.7180610288,0.7184963063123074,0.7201349198,0.7257376566,0.7164969076000001,0.718763612,0.7195191049,0.7223396451,0.7225061727000001,0.7220747847,0.721381589,0.7276346492,0.7244571707,0.7316153085,0.7209334515,0.7211231601,0.7428646649,1.0268297184,0.9746856794,0.9816293455 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.7508052527,0.7527228112000001,0.7529906373,0.7535802192579365,0.7525219346,0.7609831386,0.7523353457,0.7544838626,0.7544663325204308,0.7560553130000001,0.7579432873187183,0.7768045828,0.7550693856,0.7577397368000001,0.7643243648,0.7622844253000001,1.0614172701,0.7598582682,1.1299828457,0.7551866291,0.7542354231,0.7717380393000001,0.7954997308,0.7540567666,0.754085474,0.7779256267,1.043641273,1.043641273,1.083184864 -jena_weather_10T,0.4309090154,0.4218300215,0.4226702319,0.4615291729471235,0.4245089156,0.478995454,0.4296973578,0.4373143717,0.4817599401579402,0.4304721325,0.4741490244051219,0.4518058165,0.4967160547,0.4434533325,0.4805248618,0.4805248618,0.7646151092,0.4900412345,0.6820499033,0.5144770169,0.5587228171,0.5188511306,0.6789537866,0.5727477171,0.6119521092,0.4933654066,0.7300235005,0.5270355616,0.5533241239000001 -jena_weather_1D,1.4035573159,1.4662347469,1.4702452686,1.409214862474672,1.4228391992,1.3665391794,1.4313472293,1.3763415666,1.4563000346443564,1.3825082328,1.4101012062726317,1.410255507,1.4813479802,1.4446469397,1.372290368,1.372290368,1.9991114653,1.4276462192,1.9679278165,1.5642224636000002,1.8623383179,2.1653977159,2.2704267056,1.5277037006,1.8504210407,1.6406694152,1.896570119,1.6994317292,1.7748810552 -jena_weather_1H,0.4373910122,0.432801223,0.4323171492,0.4349058788349856,0.4390660376,0.4379098598,0.4426331909,0.4392356673,0.5282781361083098,0.4344342981,0.4279208846492737,0.4469500933,0.5145550687,0.4438780044,0.4542878177,0.4542878177,0.5220404427,0.4459427668,0.5708323869,0.4663908342,0.5741689518,0.54141489,0.5783146828,0.5091821928,0.56783211,0.4846005821,0.7399001584,0.5374935405,0.5445520850000001 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.5199208546,0.5625294702,0.5433777298,0.5507810991994854,0.5309238195,0.5903298202,0.5438323687000001,0.5903298202,0.5605745495869143,0.5903298202,0.5713040225275269,0.5903298202,0.7107570771,0.5426727347,0.5903298202,0.5903298202,0.7521142134000001,0.5903298202,0.8303712878,0.7803435012000001,0.6027949179000001,0.8019455392,0.7490762208,0.8070701330000001,0.7837344015000001,0.8117980878000001,0.8187009941000001,0.7815687043,0.8809057297 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.8993091785,0.8940833015,0.8891125355,0.8984963094783156,0.9013936358,0.8990205129000001,0.8954765100000001,0.8934941994000001,0.9087696453142,0.9151213313,0.8923438953288951,0.8968090552,0.9367617531,0.9561151633,0.9125687197,0.9069594681,1.0246834579,0.9235145261,1.0034332515,0.9701320837,1.081961152,1.0828487333,1.0719893944,0.9552154502,0.9888169927,0.9764039847,1.0844353285,1.0306171325,1.0552765592 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6a1832599fbd5cdcfd30897cf3971b0557d942cd..ba834e0025ca189858f84d9f7002d13f350c352f 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE_baseline_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_MASE_baseline_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,citras-fm,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,Sundial-Base,LightGBM,Stat. 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a/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv index 7f6c5b3f0541f4bb2e0350a47f3d7b19661d0118..70ea9c374eeae203e63761e52b37294d66c2e75e 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,citras-fm,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,Sundial-Base,LightGBM,Stat. 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a/tables/pivot_SQL.csv b/tables/pivot_SQL.csv index beb3522d0a90a4d73ced3f13877792f4f854ac6c..a76750ea66c68e4a6e956556ad0b0a2399f696e0 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_SQL.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,FlowState,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.5458017173,0.5586378151316758,0.5335896905,0.5353083701,0.5398526253,0.5682984870000001,0.5515558792,0.5771622688,0.6259993762577944,0.6030259425184072,0.5550232759,0.5925394969000001,0.5675487844,0.5963961444,0.5737369343000001,0.5737369343000001,0.6510820399,0.597092731,0.7624529835,0.5804043049000001,0.7127807327,0.7624529835,1.2626027172,0.8242286029,0.8610694555,1.0985228611,0.7624529835,1.3268766307,1.364982948 -ETT_1D,1.1315469549,1.1217647526653227,1.1507368303,1.1405312124,1.143855937,1.1014613429,1.1363853572,1.1440582819,1.1379791799209271,1.1185109786727652,1.2031878311,1.1431203447,1.1553237804,1.1856058506,1.1321824298,1.1321824298,1.2802122121,1.2461046836,1.2707356893,1.3481828095,1.3907091295,1.25875938,1.355962893,1.484646319,1.4351120194,1.3789083245,1.3728451516,1.4222525228,1.4528881509 -ETT_1H,0.8829665685,0.8649999227633224,0.8672923033000001,0.8709263623,0.8673932811,0.8735827903000001,0.8786900273,0.8822637278000001,0.907989659042604,0.9349378235923262,0.8913036409,0.8726006591000001,0.8961325529,0.9339484831,0.9435863135,0.9435863135,0.9510037995,0.9634114324,1.2717102069,0.9520664282,0.9923239428,1.0524049139,1.7645010168000002,1.2734627054,1.2995570797,2.0612851381,1.2068899293,2.3136589095,2.4221862573 -ETT_1W,2.3200722308,2.2922133670737583,2.2586726622,2.2945323202,2.285850695,2.2645203409,2.2877468379,2.2485701851,2.2520996503353903,2.266260128887646,2.2860033378,2.282938456,2.2236416716,2.4022266941,2.2795034821,2.2795034821,2.8038658249,2.4688224531,2.4073690889,2.5703446589,2.6864108919,2.4423112812,2.3938030681,3.3055190246,3.0028333129,2.603472341,2.5092678911,2.5092678911,2.6321294826 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.7791980564000001,0.7768617341436916,0.7836429105,0.7845465061,0.7857961149,0.7923359453000001,0.7949908437000001,0.7738014951000001,0.769406149436554,0.8024142881458447,0.7740027876000001,0.8312624409,0.8358336164,0.7835457679000001,0.8051325961,0.8051325961,0.8458595656000001,0.8625023325000001,0.8198461450000001,0.9248152836,0.9718154773,0.8099517847000001,0.8246251853000001,1.2016962021,1.1816395787,0.8528499565000001,1.0461703764,2.4710362968,2.6285047047 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6390561899,0.6581844220096744,0.6343707073,0.6283256871,0.6310907196000001,0.6558214242,0.6609654351,0.6206804931000001,0.6672517167408398,0.7009974940064555,0.6478375519,0.6981107765,0.7372999633,0.6674266258,0.7646847798,0.7646847798,0.6600279576,0.7695770803,1.6869474033,0.6972921629000001,0.7194780145,1.1547447744,2.638525618,0.915332077,0.8835096642,2.8320370451,1.5008790843000002,3.5094786436,3.7005853399 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.5325340237,0.5514772092752246,0.5625296390000001,0.5430064863,0.5506517325,0.5488731011,0.5428956192000001,0.5953126392,0.7095763220051001,0.7965910787874071,0.6072875357,0.5611374050000001,0.5499692081,0.6202447687,0.7101241528000001,0.7101241528000001,0.5602853387,0.6606205367,1.0436727143,0.5986758137,0.5456749059,1.0012742799,1.1550368256,0.8566762556,0.8686562835,1.1098659434,0.7515879950000001,1.8612988663,2.0191661851 -M_DENSE_1D,0.6463243558,0.7733376999322423,0.7564314643000001,0.7320277621,0.7512110797,0.7460414423,0.8232509545000001,0.7075343302,0.7565055270675693,0.737321316,0.7422618812,0.8408283417,0.8640470712,0.7717292628,0.7589658925,0.7589658925,0.7328201998,0.7844887054,0.9647884402,0.9893696425,0.9603858713,0.9701754728,1.0734765628,0.9083450871,0.8778251039,1.1434781559,1.262653401,2.1937270099,2.2311997966 -M_DENSE_1H,0.5854558830000001,0.5969262102520079,0.5970600924,0.6050656354,0.6074108393000001,0.5867504629,0.6085256933000001,0.5560591779,0.5851457694572142,0.6154460580613851,0.5805491357,0.6204019194,0.7094885956,0.6632770782,0.5952543352,0.5952543352,0.5907953396,0.6604636921,1.1265341156,0.5926278249,0.6004937211,1.0625833507,59.0195304331,0.7014697541,0.7210938459,3.0980400728,1.3040659353,3.8689658057,4.0939855162 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.3932968835,0.3962238870240938,0.3936143253,0.3937715691,0.393367667,0.3955981843,0.3973579075,0.3966454241,0.3994507724371505,0.4083116606434512,0.4033604063,0.4013459637,0.4009676894,0.4340988224,0.4131753277,0.4131753277,0.4103262755,0.4438538338,0.5602190944000001,0.4057853396,0.4081343193,0.5602190944000001,2.3550253736,0.5411960582,0.5625857080000001,0.5126750232,0.5602190944000001,1.3787889927,1.4174386477 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-boomlet_1225,0.1864128972,0.1862889799535441,0.1803593032,0.1805102803,0.1808226777,0.187627861,0.1822725152,0.190080309,0.1993979833643002,0.1942443666020114,0.2122607896,0.1835602798,0.1857979376,0.2202597451,0.1948503404,0.2030750845,0.2061799857,0.222714996,0.2803755246,0.1890585979,0.1911028017,0.2348969849,0.3176935118,0.2483559023,0.255820597,0.3296940648,0.745385819,0.745385819,0.7585705484 -boomlet_1230,1.201031991,1.174796432636375,1.0899592481,1.0914336881,1.0920678565,1.1859324556,1.1115808079,1.1874248061,1.292409489483204,1.2483559529874884,1.2002251825,1.1353398906,1.1421118962,1.6021141835,1.2863247525,1.266108877,1.2449619928,1.3047326747,3.390035079,1.3089563224,1.6035503613,1.8500253406,393376696999491.8,1.3771614682,1.4274055249,3.9779654007,2.0369976807,5.5481527801,5.9878394007 -boomlet_1282,0.4211360586,0.4108198399052765,0.4033993505,0.4022959829,0.3934727046,0.408903337,0.4101595822,0.4034160526,0.4125768221143119,0.431833325,0.4329049622,0.4066135134,0.4129995924,0.4199209625,0.4269211105,0.4618106438,0.4289540573,0.4521593639,0.7391125171,0.4127201368,0.416701825,0.5565242632,0.9135627299,0.7178772331000001,0.7317596636,0.9716916483,1.5394068103,1.5394068103,1.5690882757 -boomlet_1487,0.4233194118,0.4323201891907128,0.3806610297,0.3827166317,0.3844379293,0.4270074593,0.4017548532,0.4122943573,0.4470261447017197,0.4768262307311914,0.4266351433,0.4004232584,0.4260201682,0.7190211417,0.4557618636,0.4824435416,0.5113092414,0.4989559922,0.6807093531,0.5319003556,0.5384342772,0.6560424582000001,0.7236915697,0.5296842807000001,0.6314985567,0.8366025957000001,0.8422519526000001,5.6512371294,6.1210675798 -boomlet_1631,0.5718706997,0.5868236857709034,0.5538982553,0.5577758872,0.5583924678000001,0.5981611194,0.5764632744,0.5790200294,0.6219298759894352,0.6148102500356808,0.5919052434000001,0.5806944285,0.5806484029,0.7008405748000001,0.5907980986,0.6194052561,0.6290290896,0.6443979368,0.6885645595000001,0.6244832684,0.6295405316,0.6896442348,0.7214099138000001,0.7840087741,0.8647964118,0.7282739174,0.8513712535,1.3493380036,1.3890549561 -boomlet_1676,0.5686748679,0.5636068162517018,0.5398853139,0.5426404231,0.5422867104,0.5712459136,0.5513277666,0.5626255001,0.6016652104370287,0.6077712476948691,0.5882972718,0.554444394,0.5561889279000001,0.8305000389,0.5727147195,0.6076896707,0.6076642387,0.6145915641,0.6950889415,0.6130806452,0.6033684371,0.664818372,0.7563535744000001,0.7522987645,0.7812367057,0.7835312600000001,0.8503822229,1.3195857327,1.3578116765 -boomlet_1855,0.4615736804,0.4542860609875849,0.4345097115,0.4334943128,0.4352980292,0.4500166192,0.4474067593,0.4725778394,0.5035843957537904,0.4642095141544263,0.4737663287,0.4522875092,0.4492351264,0.6304712379,0.464879976,0.4695926843,0.5025033989000001,0.5254199296000001,1.1233499755,0.5226192424,0.5582099367000001,1.0829482047,1.1848850589,0.6300995462,0.6443521790000001,1.2044141936,1.4642665234,3.2734555819,3.2968155873 -boomlet_1975,0.1333320334,0.1397648776376917,0.1027168248,0.097324005,0.0975215503,0.1921381374,0.1191291154,0.1671766165,0.2513555927780582,0.1662682539800805,0.1684755686,0.1261994368,0.1451597334,0.208181269,0.2195469344,0.179392905,0.1288347827,0.2023056594,0.5478588831,0.190799742,0.4596269308,0.5505765414,0.611359383,0.3279616223,0.5089229918,0.6292227781,0.8427719298,0.611491132,0.6131317103 -boomlet_2187,0.7122729535,0.719339607555989,0.6770915724000001,0.6796668926,0.6815604435,0.7105001350000001,0.6990546247,0.8020040121,0.8352927513167032,0.7338828894349271,0.745609595,0.7633891475,0.7194559635000001,0.9244561409,0.8067927053,0.7746853034000001,0.7553496013000001,0.8515537165,1.2729717659,0.9220270178,0.9810183294,1.3028566625,1.3069851744,0.9130007445,0.9202249676,1.389411781,1.6696910968,3.007286737,3.02793884 -boomlet_285,0.2900640673,0.3443007045805658,0.2590034678,0.2601604369,0.2608434451,0.3453755045,0.280219851,0.3965655567,0.3541767461117314,0.3714806324339058,0.5098224314,0.3187496321,0.3218176679,0.3474603742,0.4274151937,0.4767029005,0.4335118963,0.4879211264,1.2619335664,0.4654726315,0.4628337923,1.1887776826,1.2033358695,0.5225346821,0.4692106421,1.3318503746,6.0221504812,6.0221504812,6.1302545275 -boomlet_619,0.3232653903,0.3207597351388844,0.2861559298,0.2869806268,0.2894401896,0.3410809263,0.2986340787,0.3398320593,0.3261909539290346,0.3556750824773309,0.5293904265,0.3097234884,0.3135556532,0.3277022377,0.3294344192,0.4708614916,0.3123887141,0.3705071077,0.7771722931,0.321599624,0.3115592883,0.5544648006,0.8944230162000001,0.6168268245,1.3661388609,0.8352158472000001,1.2751647051,1.2751647051,1.3005697257 -boomlet_772,0.2827797609,0.2929414057657262,0.2649503284,0.2652043742,0.2674691407,0.2962086421,0.2761029446,0.294866871,0.3054376225869047,0.3141254822616043,0.3506349478,0.2809798447,0.2902362244,0.3321933631,0.3139115767,0.3391929942,0.3473315925,0.3520560133,1.1794168077,0.3088148556,0.3239512441,0.7834129983,531470199.30140096,0.3866455226,0.4043528583,1.4390517149,2.490998287,2.490998287,2.5366947176 -boomlet_963,0.7165952965,0.7019012782172595,0.7015912221,0.7104565405000001,0.7083189280000001,0.7184034894,0.7140251293000001,0.7387586402,0.7862284241523283,0.7489767548966648,0.739939699,0.7195574656,0.7229660492000001,0.8141836092,0.7505200275,0.7786787341,0.7923416634,0.7521897883,1.334806172,0.7302070086,0.7558819317000001,1.1056032589,1.608901145,1.0280335706,0.948977253,1.4536844168,1.6474289684,1.6474289684,1.6758761219 -ecdc_ili,2.2713937157,2.192456898912054,2.3745010826,2.4128212272000003,2.4310164289,2.4106397040000003,2.4510300395,2.2150356615,2.4573774435197846,2.442968814736758,2.2011208512,2.5609678081,2.5338166452,2.3365331867,2.4544933393,2.6531174879,3.3407415689,2.7054455064000003,3.8373639206,2.7637013504,3.4522595632,3.6414550458,4.0788004375,2.6359504213,2.657299556,3.8437922738,3.7763740412,3.7763740412,3.9298377867 -entsoe_15T,0.4539692649,0.4432047728616628,0.4455587065,0.426208374,0.4381152576,0.4692753658,0.5055777775,0.4709170876,0.6477114252819485,0.491723576330322,0.481611144,0.5893481889000001,0.5883233504000001,0.4758631846,0.4782887502,0.5061680813,0.5759481439,0.6669136238000001,0.7806910738,0.5155502672,0.7806910738,0.7806910738,3.0289340555,0.9042372943,0.8380750606,0.5794334177,0.7806910738,1.5177144371,1.6350644226000002 -entsoe_1H,0.4292730862,0.4817596844417065,0.4101660563,0.4224634609,0.4256814438,0.4701221999,0.4447538881,0.4680893726,0.384830535154666,0.4753783490017622,0.5616083615,0.4796314997,0.5183088057,0.4404895567,0.4870732449,0.4574194984,0.6488322029,0.7440774844,0.892037158,0.8136484091,0.5748262169,0.8725110646,1.9050298478,0.6518687919,0.5970910659,0.9723015566,1.0561195215,1.9153526973,2.0110168631 -entsoe_30T,0.4335549531,0.5005483325091996,0.4146546189,0.405038874,0.4445023685,0.5229834629,0.4395821765,0.5657877332,0.579068396303577,0.5324082856718012,0.5004599829,0.4953109646,0.5550284881,0.5133098745,0.4883587595,0.5294317369,0.5958784273000001,0.7215674609,0.8465164158,0.5622171084,0.5524671427,0.9807421936,2.4927614743,0.7535617677,0.6559652231,0.7996836319,1.0103240736,1.6091505837,1.5911802803 -epf_be,0.5032959121,0.5319225521407256,0.5171872122,0.5146457744,0.5014795033,0.5270142793,0.5416327571,0.4937475408,0.5332593102688878,0.5053587681642974,0.5637818842,0.5635987802,0.5671427583,0.5464266305000001,0.5281380215,0.573131012,0.6260342733,0.6465423658,1.2134728193,0.550117544,0.604636517,1.056062842,1.5343230558,0.7447461558,0.8069993803000001,1.4843337118,1.1502802393,3.0844577095,3.1070840923 -epf_de,0.491116807,0.4880414701646064,1.0103180021,0.9853228527,1.0376379231,1.0321657926,1.0304676086,1.0300426579,0.4367504266680445,0.641829284,1.008407533,1.0966425232,1.0153757746,0.4481231347,1.0163696767,1.0208057991,0.5089676628,1.1830726521,1.1665654366,0.4600117346,0.632211468,1.2777052381,1.4013077948,1.092293938,1.0961059598,1.4943828631,1.3876762483,1.4012217276,1.4206595351 -epf_fr,0.3617711398,0.3483775825317684,0.3955569372,0.395886476,0.3979992787,0.4013687893,0.4353276464,0.4091650071,0.3739033410112943,0.4162508064535263,0.3914642125,0.4290344523,0.4373481725,0.3296946424,0.4092032935,0.4389129045,0.3966932787,0.461064889,1.1455536514,0.3377276082,0.405352581,1.1580732802,0.8989034360000001,0.5789717952,0.5540351793,1.5911736362000002,1.245523433,3.8189176542,3.8479454088 -epf_np,0.6581144952,0.6120173698740318,0.9514661425,0.9662899325,0.9547651442,0.9662473913,0.9821055904,1.1706350438,0.6326802888048368,0.775848168,1.0787234972,1.0305150538,1.1539374354,0.6784422918,0.9253466762,0.9710722954,0.6895900221,0.9450979115,1.2844682023,0.6353227614,0.8172925467000001,1.3932103544,1.9332061058,1.2030410689,1.3024697377,1.28120416,1.5298484623,1.9403665423,1.9414482925 -epf_pjm,0.3815757864,0.3749227228252754,0.404272156,0.4183045813,0.405580151,0.4041709926,0.4214118509,0.4263079718,0.3821325591298794,0.4269814194299671,0.5094128422,0.4493240609,0.4181511903,0.4356828169,0.4405348748,0.4216992865,0.3455213143,0.4679144039,0.4870663954,0.3694112031,0.3569453107,0.4818704953,0.9138785739,0.5970346754,0.5975950790000001,0.6031843862,0.5152721129,0.9298473052,0.9378547809 -ercot_1D,0.8691910278,0.8050406740606775,0.8885593012,0.8425199384000001,0.8193500454,0.8182837222,0.8660805833,0.8296777373,0.8451644824417806,0.8740599465929856,0.9106076874,0.8817792488,0.8594344444,0.9762180728,0.9470906528,0.9164572424,0.9423287706,0.9267011801,1.2548535606,1.1665632953,0.9077867237,1.1018625514,1.3820413502,1.1560832976,1.1613994614,1.4186958593,1.3382664903,1.3903868577,1.4000667369 -ercot_1H,1.0291210659,1.12429710778084,1.073420423,1.0699724465,1.1062954854,1.0649765757,1.1001127974,1.1510446687,1.107700165389693,1.154251945198992,1.3347209787,1.0947836283,1.1254333272,1.2289820048,1.0976603356,1.1379290551,1.120598037,1.2226080643,1.2598225559,1.2198959074,1.3214751737,1.1754444734,2.6755881519,1.5894603436,1.6141545065,1.2749706344,1.3214751737,2.6413248366,2.6942610973 -ercot_1M,0.7549419478,0.7894534930384258,0.7344646848,0.7443515152,0.7410596322,0.8060543733000001,0.7727935542000001,0.7715311204,0.7553373538052813,0.7720353293321686,0.7468934166000001,1.0036782341,0.8388079947,0.7477304274000001,0.9725732486,0.7729483525,0.9597229178,0.917392765,0.7617082098,0.9725133,0.8798250142,0.7879913772,0.7564464103,1.1003515104,1.1319534585,0.9653005258,0.9042858344,3.4990135147,3.8188806089 -ercot_1W,0.9664287997,0.9448787524049,0.9342862465,0.9295393459,0.9357843462,0.9546524174,0.9803640377,0.9324255959,0.9964452557030437,0.964995962,0.9729797938,1.0610507161,0.9754918214,1.0976477799,1.0526167053,0.9613116074,1.1863135463,1.2458511259,2.0949542296,1.0380153591,1.0192954526,2.0899487146,2.0679213703,1.5134613082,1.5178949884,2.1282361519,2.0789778449,2.0789778449,2.08010839 -favorita_stores_1D,0.9164120516,0.964638610268981,0.9568145277,0.957299319,0.9643153172,0.9681608121,1.0011850261,0.9493623589,0.989499543264631,1.0041087992870763,1.0189850251,1.0364488755,1.0300815581,0.9637863937,0.979821362,1.0322306622,1.0769941706,1.0613262128,1.197046553,1.0670043372,1.0970758974,1.2216416049,1.2378827408,1.2169457375,1.2374486446,1.2731528129,1.6902367837,2.6356836342000003,2.6562348007 -favorita_stores_1M,1.7943754897000002,1.783260687821159,1.8178061811,1.8288812277,1.8354272819,1.8559124263,1.8077841091,1.9983090295,1.9234985965626687,1.841755713884215,1.877365611,2.0096879831,1.8455187971,1.9206099315,2.0913151512,2.0865003622,2.0974305924,2.2542926251,1.9426065544,2.1000375919,2.1000375919,2.0381596399,1.9424462273,2.3704432246,2.4362983732,1.9416453029,2.0967116015,2.0578284218,2.1067030725 -favorita_stores_1W,2.0241017868,1.9688870924150603,2.0435379772,2.0404245134,2.0481420709,2.0462405913,2.0558505179,1.9683866141,2.054172465191093,2.0234463707656496,2.0181047236,2.1281396981,2.0834063591,2.0504188569,2.1965497119,2.1010925575,2.2156335262,2.3082226469,2.2196005529,2.2405815866,2.3266869236,2.2969051103,2.3568206954,2.4201344249,2.4844421105,2.3159830055,2.493828911,2.493828911,2.5295781948 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.684612804,0.952641030753745,0.9445906683,0.9691195791,1.0558440937,1.0314215723,1.0712494281,0.9750458565,1.2831102129867946,1.2702790211801689,0.9750458565,0.9750458565,1.165461955,1.196304363,0.9750458565,0.9750458565,1.0392228061,1.1981736735,1.1848435872,1.7065906049,1.2607887013,1.5621685722,1.1813088428,1.310724942,1.4453713127,1.2463370549,1.7338216692,2.7303837443,2.7460309868 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.9426020865,1.0992332207440365,1.0898108433,1.1426459881,1.1282570754,1.0893114005,1.1494598672,1.1326950892,1.2138108309494609,1.1079080447466214,1.0493959644,1.3972687837,1.2087569342,1.2140686036,1.3896304682,1.3584690769,1.3333949017,1.4526874778,1.1521707921,1.6376187465,1.3333949017,1.2777968251,1.1787496577,1.546237101,1.5468854988,1.2743467081,1.3301725317,1.742429157,1.8848236976 -favorita_transactions_1W,1.2279251974,1.3385642638487183,1.3275482931,1.3623307768,1.3959773193,1.3836394233,1.4613329187,1.4283013105,1.5792758918796217,1.6445570255518862,1.3023858443,1.5609912723,1.5187757056,1.6972179627,1.4633900408,1.4283013105,1.8105447817,1.8454095028,1.5592826469,1.6344103055,1.8072413097,1.6323137004,1.6473855441,1.428234155,1.9071822198,1.702092846,1.6714139442,1.6714139442,1.7289504359 -fred_md_2025/cee,3.4681773516,3.2862153899585804,3.4942281917,3.630142231,3.5504661202000003,3.3490390927,3.5530764112,4.4904404316,4.822992531019894,3.742707125261575,4.4904404316,4.4904404316,3.5359407686,3.7041500289,4.4904404316,4.4904404316,7.6925211545,4.8863751494,3.7449838629,6.9393157052,5.3109209972,5.8791416317,3.6428847697,4.6328539376,4.3179064296,4.3189751677,9.437102726,5.9195737806,4.2362936577 -fred_md_2025/macro,5.6801712856,5.305881370729671,5.0400543973,5.0621548708,5.1382708302,5.3069669569,5.1661849842,5.8417533351,6.623291752242224,5.215768539269617,5.8417533351,5.8417533351,5.2765655398,6.1825139742,5.8417533351,5.8417533351,7.1011174556,6.2236190621,5.7428835176,7.7591999599,6.3217648862,6.5438633313,5.7936387624,6.3882787546,6.3128442527,6.012472706,9.579307634,6.4047597145,5.9752290634000005 -fred_qd_2025/cee,2.1919917498,1.63601940067248,1.8959691559,1.8267948727,1.8513157927,2.0461814758,1.8110020468,2.1807036328,2.4554780915288537,2.085829997072279,2.1195490728,1.7606520917,1.8282301609,2.101214517,2.295596059,2.3654952358,4.5666976905,3.6414340592,1.9027740876,4.2968453253,3.8775183088,1.9543398256,2.1232724401,2.5165776347,2.4572431853,2.2176909312,4.4448479394,3.6757739505,2.1956616598 -fred_qd_2025/macro,3.5367304504,3.3697035491390688,3.3930127564,3.3943726422,3.3733442079,3.5296543365,3.3639434301,3.5932767777,4.039724069464175,3.485506978805226,3.6105250303,3.398953642,3.5102113787,3.8719882611,3.6155616019,3.6544020316,4.7066002132,4.5427910096,3.61485092,4.8382267803,4.1198307849,3.867502906,3.9044348798,4.3215014285,4.2447347559,3.8250563511,5.2213315156,4.2518846304,3.7928251231 -gvar,0.5781460056000001,0.5589551550190921,0.5520770844,0.5523810767,0.5553047582,0.5767863273,0.5586088046000001,0.5902138188,0.5938390869805694,0.5810223800505645,0.5795708007,0.5751378779,0.5795582951,0.6012717483000001,0.5933262222,0.5962858425,0.7665804953,0.7468286472,0.5896099364,0.682673492,0.6419824392,0.6171744531000001,0.5932241960000001,0.7164579825,0.708557575,0.6161918224,0.7861696299,0.6701753201,0.6414950052 -hermes,0.6092189134,0.6636667367798976,0.6428202477,0.639800402,0.6498324266000001,0.6510189417000001,0.6741658114,0.6183988825,0.6188832166415184,0.6465554489907451,0.6381034028,0.9852563242,0.7133876145,0.6468349598,0.7037822328000001,0.6752116274000001,0.9395641353,0.8242736568,1.4161688306,0.8661144355,1.1546456242,1.2129200317,1.6730456533,1.1717275135,1.1831678061,1.5539343327,2.1461477989,2.1461477989,2.2601295925 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5567377231,0.5517053707585935,0.5484381323,0.5518996789,0.5516858958,0.5472671455,0.5553720088,0.5516009988,0.5518801120405257,0.5552408120746626,0.5610893835,0.547031209,0.5523202468,0.5730396578,0.5508924456000001,0.5508924456000001,0.5667204665000001,0.63854811,0.7197387021,0.5717076034,0.5775128338000001,0.6445167349,0.7933138018,0.8940101514000001,0.6884073577,0.815310861,1.0291569641,1.5929687017,1.6067653203 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6161304379,0.6248919227515206,0.624085328,0.6233546775000001,0.6258001616000001,0.6208684049000001,0.6309678977000001,0.6177938223,0.6250946465314302,0.622957962,0.6224977220000001,0.6379482866,0.6371435328,0.6334654,0.6366963837,0.6366963837,0.6734145718,0.7066222052000001,0.7460571899,0.6595958758,0.6934204731,0.7472607396000001,10.4767922043,0.7843729859,0.7892378,0.7744970072,1.3859393712,1.3859393712,1.4166524035 -hospital,0.6860471169,0.684214603052502,0.6841879552,0.6846047194,0.6824665364,0.6884080713,0.6850518532000001,0.6797112234,0.6731882113926562,0.6982329769400416,0.7150951289,0.7333951985,0.7064233591,0.6961231004,0.6968021754,0.6968021754,0.8156058973,0.8343055996000001,0.6974795861,0.7967011435,0.7754934212,0.7310321411,0.72594971,1.1000360569,1.0844048735,0.7401804133000001,0.8075125999999999,1.0208467823,1.0870231781 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.5544475609,0.5543269980988865,0.5543424782,0.5541303956,0.5544590612,0.5551415716,0.5545977005,0.5560606366,0.5543550233133119,0.5562855857009278,0.5627026409,0.5565258195,0.5546337247,0.5623231751000001,0.5555647833,0.5561584179,0.5632521932,0.610265181,0.5569559243000001,0.5603946334000001,0.5642281657,0.5556445819,0.5557966851,0.7223396451,0.7220747847,0.5748023861,0.8571822312,1.3250699949,1.3357575783 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.5763906233,0.579011430293741,0.5787779578000001,0.5791562113000001,0.578490351,0.585060916,0.578135881,0.5795336826,0.5814975220067113,0.5825863429866256,0.5871381871,0.5988911707,0.5860531109,0.5823740864,0.5862064839000001,0.5868402228,0.58146478,0.6410506868,0.57890017,0.5941090541,0.6143388617000001,0.5793359346,0.5783166585,1.0614172701,1.1299828457,0.5976752263,1.0492127287,1.0492127287,1.0884368163 -jena_weather_10T,0.3543287448,0.3776441156035776,0.3452384725,0.3452573699,0.349190447,0.3893025432,0.3521827767,0.3571555591,0.3977691542162583,0.409483845324518,0.3585628877,0.3681838375,0.3620502047,0.3982931033,0.4178230298,0.4178230298,0.4664932635,0.4152438085,0.5538563553,0.4273236416,0.5945116836000001,0.5032091612,0.7418250317,0.7646151092,0.6820499033,0.7929160857,0.6729893281,0.7693201103,0.8000027455000001 -jena_weather_1D,1.1112540398,1.107842571937628,1.1538624622,1.1583045413,1.1174383099,1.0716473767,1.129349467,1.0903437468,1.1431718457152311,1.1195380958108505,1.1090836186,1.1102918031,1.1355619161,1.169457826,1.0749683519,1.0749683519,1.5715589625000002,1.2388075013,1.3391730827,1.8310462786,1.9409795236,1.3052392127,1.6641987749,1.9991114653,1.9679278165,1.5312195925,1.7668616048,2.1502001769,2.2588602062 -jena_weather_1H,0.3530166989,0.3538974986116629,0.3494926844,0.3506141223,0.3542711499,0.3556669004,0.3592740462,0.3588962232,0.428629334578385,0.3454673091723851,0.3582722458,0.3614757077,0.3619730242,0.415359889,0.3668484894,0.3668484894,0.4675756221,0.3803257267,0.4515903501,0.4411310457,0.4870567156,0.4369650957,0.552924987,0.5220404427,0.5708323869,0.5933268922,0.6550438080000001,0.5788947411,0.5844505982 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.4250790923,0.4529682936307481,0.447004261,0.4330467661,0.4282436484,0.5333420093,0.4368852356,0.5333420093,0.4559395274289512,0.5072560735586973,0.5333420093,0.5333420093,0.4355228069,0.5644804492000001,0.5333420093,0.5333420093,0.4956628002,0.5333420093,0.7163827294,0.6623905197000001,0.67751777,0.7400410128,0.746986754,0.7521142134000001,0.8303712878,0.7782845343,0.7774995271,0.7544738308000001,0.843339209 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.703502155,0.7009228994600589,0.6977554734,0.6930008373000001,0.7031467502000001,0.6974981279,0.6972014541,0.6975119232,0.7090888044750191,0.6969207770706304,0.7225312716000001,0.703265005,0.7440942069,0.7278216361000001,0.7078449032,0.7086991552,0.8800525434,0.8018621055,0.7298649393000001,0.9073817196,0.8779595727,0.7200476657,0.7509996386000001,1.0246834579,1.0034332515,0.7391822819,0.9005495229,1.1381260541,1.164651229 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.4388772718,0.4349572379339479,0.4451861188,0.4399407544,0.4400916592,0.4319676063,0.4323781862,0.5054627583,0.458777471541116,0.4671724181205438,0.4260441729,0.4287190469,0.4370582677,0.5544360955000001,0.4273561269,0.5612428372,0.6316240477,0.5099402658000001,0.6792707648,0.6391498337,0.6825619174,0.6406027351,0.7719233297,0.5719581529000001,0.7476704067000001,0.7653501955,0.7740434259000001,0.7638792977000001,0.7929597827 -m5_1D,0.7216368132000001,0.7205846263896121,0.704144171,0.7044639941,0.7054049866000001,0.7143626549000001,0.7101053234,0.7292764904,0.7201100611971899,0.736743588,0.7292764904,0.7292764904,0.7160844073,1.2544668351,0.7292764904,0.7292764904,0.7204230466,0.8516064277000001,0.8497151257000001,0.7940666040000001,0.7947398711,0.8516619787,0.8527658262000001,0.9115608992,0.9060352654,0.8721490282000001,1.2544668351,1.9603909971,1.9793212182 -m5_1M,0.9769838168,0.9701469273100152,1.0883596808,1.0882265961,1.0171056227,0.9740068996,0.9921575147,0.9798127287,0.9855240728785152,0.986461872,1.0070103764,1.0440301056,1.0100709358,1.0008086842,0.9958730284,1.0000578956,1.00567635,1.0814673882,1.0218593551,0.9998964569,1.0998342408,1.0455375295,1.1082320943,1.1688542464,1.1750728183,1.0987392539,1.1398593577,1.1923633097,1.2896192832 -m5_1W,0.9001918553,0.8971538324919788,1.1721142515,1.0827555561,1.0129572572,0.9025800624,0.89877054,0.9165191906,0.9044856124191126,0.9034858220415304,0.9164156144,0.9047379135,0.9120098851,0.9191855641,0.9069017161,0.9165191906,0.876315536,0.9747800888,0.936267814,0.9204466291,1.0280772869,0.9366737298,0.9530783876,1.1331152987,1.1357351186,0.96339616,1.3557578929,1.3557578929,1.3899419911 -proenfo_gfc12,0.6485047492,0.896355747272434,0.8538338737000001,0.8409608442000001,0.8404503113,0.9081089707,0.880628559,0.9171920618,0.6143894962583005,0.8304772402542266,0.9171920618,0.9171920618,0.9279077458,0.8233246403000001,0.9171920618,0.9171920618,1.2455063445,0.9003739311000001,1.3049877202,1.3191343096,1.0154808885,1.1408344717,2.4308618505,1.1792674572,1.3037960599,1.4149215678,1.1997208149,2.3796009829,2.480520524 -proenfo_gfc14,0.4301437324,0.3683590898542755,0.6798239947,0.6703903271,0.6997715783,0.7205809898000001,0.7100394417,0.7673985078000001,0.4257560843855685,0.6096831120832706,0.7673985078000001,0.7673985078000001,0.7977474731,0.5075102348,0.7673985078000001,0.7673985078000001,0.3993229789,0.4208035936,0.9059811027,0.5398395481,0.3920981903,0.9471264481,1.1104064481,0.6015004656,0.6914805803,1.0554823694,1.0750756471,3.2096156537,3.402595253 -proenfo_gfc17,0.4848892231,0.6880529070939791,0.8323749623000001,0.8416294457,0.8404405091,0.8894497153,0.8651703039,0.9004430913,0.5278615771564448,0.7660734895841419,0.9004430913,0.9004430913,0.988689117,0.6727990495,0.9004430913,0.9004430913,1.3696616279,0.5086387805,1.1415607167,1.3875307958,1.0401020555,1.1149783953,2.134645723,0.7016856003,0.8171314171,1.146953594,1.3160349082,2.5749629162,2.7046737757 -redset_15T,0.7901010349,0.96155389599961,0.6948127014000001,0.64021543,0.6908155589,0.832610955,0.8138408035,0.7405330099,1.208107811159514,1.720533763055815,3.0580971058,0.8204798089,0.8875343451000001,1.2524930005,1.0409395891,1.2430012401,1.3227435674,1.160404574,1.2313423839,1.3124539858,1.3124539858,1.2313423839,1.2313423839,0.9647518396,1.3248073962,10.1219215148,1.2313423839,33.9212723884,35.0901221342 -redset_1H,1.3653252295,1.4539605244608689,1.2901889685,1.2700161619,1.2834254628,1.33657964,1.320261017,1.3665094125,1.3382589717102331,1.4977751087573634,1.2871407749,1.306035897,1.3767793335,1.3215384818,1.4098475969,2.27902726,2.131588522,1.4505298471,1.8587229269,2.131588522,2.131588522,1.8772582274,2.3765166373,1.5082353606,1.5857808187,4.0716887314,1.9424894304,10.5809681143,10.6448235476 -redset_5T,0.6541973572,0.7351266834606228,0.5941297826,0.5967971557,0.6048864070000001,0.7872933796,0.6393017889,0.7231351039,0.7492060032121453,0.9566112837688104,1.0462110221,0.72031905,0.7118904883,0.7248827756,0.7931599226,1.0259131623,0.9439264405,0.8873768717,2.6902332368,1.1108089646,1.2602009443,1.9052087714,1.2243411633,1.0727900715,1.1897695244,3.3566436473,1.2243411633,12.0595440041,13.0588504405 -restaurant,0.6853328207,0.6794450824910496,0.7243627349,0.7376504095,0.8180863359,0.6816216492,0.7703560352000001,0.6773501619,0.6862267947497396,0.6869112296408602,0.6999498780000001,0.7035955145,0.7520722316,0.6912835394,0.6890372915,0.6890372915,0.7081608192000001,0.7474752761,0.7085204449,0.6993539572,0.7234437018000001,0.7558027764,1.0214758889,0.9536264495,0.960119527,0.7607880059000001,0.9837597912,1.6150739541,1.6918666336 -rohlik_orders_1D,0.9592108487,1.0484591784963886,1.0322960977,1.0922811685,1.0837265841,0.9857545096,1.1692702801,1.0057460702,1.0524120251826534,1.034702106190723,1.0297496333,1.1326380713,1.1775773245,1.1796657517,0.9699727202,1.050752156,1.2025174785,1.1963053977,1.2113713605,1.6779941054,2.0212570515,1.2661753776,1.4469855142,1.1782540556,1.2529082984,1.3973344849,1.5544219076,2.9129738539,2.9819524061 -rohlik_orders_1W,1.2996633839,1.4142486675879522,1.3854453606,1.4027437012,1.3692473864,1.3004244294,1.40148047,1.3277785394,1.4150472261463665,1.4815417817629155,1.242802883,1.4868445637,1.4951892004,1.3168567359,1.5783678428,1.4281796166,1.4645987203,1.8923042995,1.3984122281,1.9053408247,1.7175486694000002,1.4146777192,1.4189633191,2.0977100612,1.454548729,1.3962994474,1.48444226,1.48444226,1.4886376727 -rohlik_sales_1D,0.8807894575,0.96743233711846,1.1560317215,1.1660403798,1.1851125302,1.1480800214,1.2157829822,1.0957943213,0.8988259978130893,1.1687648024904465,1.237392081,1.2176496301,1.2292801132,0.8652446623000001,1.1696411251,1.1471494649,1.3316247919,1.2026659678,1.2482652211,1.3004175995,1.3549325596,1.2758180739,1.2661606674,1.2675984212,1.3423163541,1.2818357402,1.3749816714,1.5460015534,1.5603708995 -rohlik_sales_1W,1.2741411479,1.193970787500754,1.7701907593,1.4916082623,1.4952528856,1.4251751967,1.5727170773,1.4010447149,1.1594553457688928,1.3992701086790116,1.4254615313,1.5045931055,1.5602309386000002,1.1282382034,1.5157422748,1.521596632,1.9282179033,1.6933358341,1.6455287749,1.9282179033,1.9282179033,1.8024970974,14.453220694,1.9301492595,1.8945888306,1.6547436187,1.9282179035,1.9282179035,1.9690203082 -rossmann_1D,0.2834680757,0.411020059183442,0.4770118744,0.4812073721,0.4945914321,0.5391344861,0.5297763587000001,0.5015787541,0.2454697484253374,0.5260209800370064,0.5045180931000001,0.5677396366,0.5480332795,0.2388641206,0.5274198803,0.5246207313,0.9238993591,0.5305513714,0.5781174408,0.8529477276,0.9238993591,0.561928337,0.5936917113,0.3321575309,0.34123088,0.8315478226,0.9136725128,2.7620723433,2.8181795797 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4d6a59badbaf037f7f81684158a50c8070f966df..1319be60d28c84603413ed3d37dad77d6bf02333 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,FlowState,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,FlowState,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,Stat. 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a/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv index 2fa67782d0c002291d89fff96d42a42519898b0d..bc7e8e4ad9523eb3d3571ca1987c8c2b2ea02658 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,FlowState,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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a/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv b/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv index 389d0d35cfb713f0f74312188682c6f6985e60fd..74f622e10e68a7034dd50c9e93c7aef9a4591399 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,CatBoost,LightGBM,TFT,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoETS,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.1093204188,0.1096413526,0.1128598566,0.1102235484,0.1138016979470881,0.1133056087,0.1167248716,0.1158377721,0.1277055473232923,0.1134573436,0.1196766644716262,0.1222164234,0.1215191215,0.1165488051,0.1146202501,0.1146202501,0.1157490913,0.1333792316,0.1398110393,0.1328079771,0.1473227956,0.1186695699,0.1393924813,0.2089927319,0.1473227956,0.1327521247,0.202845638,0.1473227956,0.2094913494 -ETT_1D,0.3394552275,0.3280857838,0.3210531483,0.3158326952,0.3420415583929304,0.3229389383,0.3321509522,0.3280948975,0.3355526428793763,0.371841069,0.3341167665485825,0.3527269384,0.3405863591,0.3352292924,0.3275848036,0.3275848036,0.3646975075,0.363591792,0.3295882514,0.4094091823,0.3275626731,0.3795980344,0.3918615035,0.3392487668,0.3554786791,0.3405146072,0.3361394622,0.3566862672,0.3456173952 -ETT_1H,0.2437576175,0.2445032078,0.2467289659,0.2424597287,0.2435291723788384,0.2442280412,0.2452016068,0.2477475434,0.2587453255658147,0.2500971646,0.2455185163766145,0.2535823447,0.243451935,0.2487794037,0.2464663105,0.2464663105,0.2547681354,0.2780071237,0.2765730893,0.2644368017,0.262127553,0.2656204862,0.2659028279,0.3240313317,0.2729976741,0.2708169586,0.338907016,0.2864224587,0.3517438199 -ETT_1W,0.5067147578,0.5190302288,0.5228870836,0.5174044067,0.5070306021870257,0.4859628314,0.4956519363,0.4771292578,0.520022349394661,0.511936006,0.4702526360750198,0.5145717291,0.4957755585,0.4687525665,0.4599850641,0.4599850641,0.5208597481,0.6083512742,0.5222573649,0.4680254205,0.4587044315,0.4445193222,0.4762920601,0.4551568284,0.5033163587,0.4891462915,0.3963209978,0.3963209978,0.4451834252 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.0359374356,0.0360972337,0.0363369958,0.0363307562,0.0361705093999902,0.0367073286,0.0359623256,0.0367103026,0.0357774658359257,0.0356744821,0.0373263435438275,0.0366289483,0.038823438,0.0392369505,0.0373221389,0.0373221389,0.0372882528,0.0458887833,0.0451010422,0.0392690751,0.0378798347,0.0418140235,0.0437190303,0.0379914598,0.0375884529,0.038968802,0.0786971631,0.0445690594,0.0891125322 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.06816517,0.0673969781,0.0681990332,0.0673099319,0.0699688610860717,0.0706625336,0.0643115029,0.0704373399,0.0713651283937751,0.0683908426,0.072775726,0.0716520886,0.0749549385,0.0795993086,0.07979342,0.07979342,0.077676107,0.0786934855,0.0759691767,0.0699971461,0.1021083959,0.0742517529,0.0772867588,0.1460618878,0.1129810625,0.1024438366,0.1526884162,0.1172784963,0.1758716537 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.0772399432,0.0744810165,0.0736883423,0.0753441604,0.075582190228459,0.0740519529,0.0792618448,0.0750445002,0.0962011672777523,0.0811139788,0.097470926,0.0815252506,0.0756154473,0.0750912871,0.0886344944,0.0886344944,0.0829992138,0.092754854,0.093645715,0.0754857662,0.1069220741,0.0820779495,0.0755048556,0.1085262701,0.1080897003,0.1108838339,0.1121638606,0.0883255612,0.1301715225 -M_DENSE_1D,0.1011238143,0.0983824779,0.083318119,0.1019439018,0.105684471106762,0.1071643367,0.0935403827,0.0993285481,0.093351624720203,0.0944414084,0.094621335,0.0967641323,0.1091491666,0.1124073754,0.0985291558,0.0985291558,0.0968305223,0.0981694563,0.0957110479,0.0882527837,0.1192791435,0.124360167,0.1251160023,0.1300925918,0.1260855301,0.1322432979,0.1969771493,0.1419847532,0.2006916609 -M_DENSE_1H,0.1426968956,0.1446259812,0.1462710002,0.1439970149,0.1505291984648664,0.1511157635,0.1379960554,0.1467316923,0.1440050897051253,0.1431459855,0.1491491481661796,0.1612682207,0.1533336131,0.1835893874,0.146687637,0.146687637,0.1584326059,0.1423458068,0.146969784,0.1435627361,0.2484246657,0.1484567094,0.1441513556,0.3140071828,0.2454276024,0.2921647739,0.6536297205,0.2611668877,0.7074491787 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.2399044971,0.2395844008,0.2391328625,0.2394940953,0.2407664077202322,0.2417945176,0.2409728498,0.2404616798,0.2427411944683499,0.2421101707,0.2441583424806594,0.2510481419,0.2440836698,0.2432725185,0.2437216353,0.2437216353,0.245247978,0.2575205425,0.2672559373,0.2487469595,0.3343059967,0.2450097222,0.2486180086,0.3189421009,0.3343059967,0.2728340265,0.3568555375,0.3343059967,0.3669907246 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.1607278219,0.1612936025,0.1627460048,0.1600338345,0.1625038958972551,0.1626474037,0.1730356132,0.1678203544,0.1673777185967798,0.178433196,0.1760067790746688,0.1876738885,0.1653456491,0.1660172808,0.1713460045,0.1713460045,0.2091502994,0.2283900294,0.2222432054,0.3066544503,0.1850999182,0.2866523282,0.2024572254,0.6624498779,0.2079726255,0.2595271883,0.246570508,0.2122471743,0.2908696599 -australian_tourism,0.0991654326,0.1031427947,0.0905689129,0.1024777689,0.1026847340238297,0.1217966059,0.0948839244,0.1068701122,0.0926205644584735,0.1159215245,0.1065569445490837,0.0928173902,0.1336289898,0.1434159682,0.1308895306,0.1434193129,0.0969211906,0.1127308859,0.114470018,0.1075350294,0.0957876079,0.1212877223,0.1476027155,0.0970392975,0.1101633592,0.1052965868,0.1803925375,0.1130525186,0.1993307009 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.2649811358,0.2830118331,0.3308650646,0.2740413015,0.3419541584799565,0.3194207955,0.3901138188,0.4282031108,0.3647902085633162,0.3943252864,0.3792306074689674,0.3722320029,0.5398329498000001,0.3887154792,0.4081446067,0.4081446067,0.4650631395,0.4824019412,0.6596941904,1.3378529006,1.3223615306,0.4125489479,0.6359198922,1.2847489361,1.7735276670000002,1.398048772,1.3024706114,2.2812914149,1.3151569495 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.6019642518,0.7084742741000001,0.4957355787,0.8028948850000001,1.378629463525534,1.0151896199,0.905720177,1.413578143,0.370571949725277,0.4191976395,1.377472644971983,1.112724066,1.2217795091,1.1670127242,1.3254390424,1.3254390424,0.6893105085,1.2816541813,1.2750427235,1.2322213455,1.3437154865,0.3737477456,1.9203846303,1.3366882038,1.5979523955,1.6561117474,1.2818957178,2.2837712309,1.8269103606 -boomlet_1062,0.5602131899,0.5601008306,0.5680818423,0.5608505135,0.578190356789373,0.5647496388000001,0.5789273604,0.5749673408,0.5680465301565842,0.649406926,0.5957806474279055,0.583171597,0.5680448784000001,0.5662882778,0.5945871025,0.6012691405,0.6355941124000001,0.6947080193,0.7310192876,0.5815261981000001,0.7826401260000001,0.5868247902,0.6281684175000001,0.8238335331000001,0.7457671709,0.838659141,1.002939936,0.8355847054000001,1.0990104986 -boomlet_1209,0.2753789474,0.2758636728,0.3048900987,0.2768972005,0.3133542134417375,0.2819311969,0.3045249199,0.3234299182,0.3248116366226868,0.3069784641,0.3269036029638746,0.378539641,0.2916395772,0.2956766258,0.3292905567,0.3271624691,0.3340434651,0.3974305497,0.4040311763,0.3266866348,0.4339859429,0.3209838453,0.4049670646,0.4784097795,0.4278108937,0.4562012457,0.4388518195,0.4784097795,0.5110153026 -boomlet_1225,0.1187701136,0.1189267292,0.1220172782,0.1190632458,0.1224017387752072,0.1199806027,0.124231222,0.1230602606,0.1301235219108324,0.1366057007,0.1265660038740583,0.1347378215,0.1206674926,0.1220553664,0.1278310668,0.133129479,0.1333109416,0.1300694606,0.1335584833,0.1353752748,0.1538434969,0.1236211332,0.1255504423,0.1598025896,0.1446868769,0.1596047964,0.195260352,0.195260352,0.1988768315 -boomlet_1230,0.2839644302,0.282637063,0.3054680901,0.2826603804,0.3103507235948754,0.2865913906,0.2999179446,0.3117769112,0.3264794909812402,0.3025436964,0.3214600342938312,0.3451734839,0.2906921267,0.2930834114,0.3094188718,0.3241073904,0.3178766378,0.3315908089,0.3572037361,0.323976894,0.3894998992,0.3215473803,0.4068682543,0.4274646375,0.3998710702,0.4040077097,0.391246969,0.4654206113,0.4504819186 -boomlet_1282,0.3421015963,0.3418121068,0.3551724804,0.3326308737,0.3457789419746395,0.3476774543,0.341846609,0.3447100916,0.3490272096780865,0.3666828666,0.3633551782203306,0.3455212249,0.3441524006,0.3482339761,0.3639267579,0.3918061865,0.360391448,0.4901192771,0.5002534195,0.3595750445,0.4329732175,0.3477719231,0.3511681227,0.4705070133,0.4049750819,0.4717626296,0.5673586451,0.5673586451,0.5815167091 -boomlet_1487,0.1799236896,0.1809128523,0.2009541891,0.1818382742,0.2055547715125545,0.1907900428,0.1978987699,0.2042655855,0.2113614719506857,0.1991484874,0.2118269638399835,0.237766095,0.1895179595,0.2026428062,0.2079859225,0.2074861594,0.2194652483,0.2090217151,0.2479427342,0.235078835,0.2612758557,0.2650068248,0.2404912221,0.261441788,0.2590437585,0.270651306,0.2881606103,0.2823812789,0.3361342463 -boomlet_1631,0.3062241803,0.3065804129,0.3118222283,0.3079245165,0.3199511554068771,0.3131809945,0.3155328261,0.3227136563,0.3371049845228359,0.3220048824,0.3269643147930037,0.3561001565,0.3156276945,0.3163039351,0.3229502886,0.3246407646,0.3276903199,0.3409899959,0.3811041731,0.3393196526,0.3432863772,0.3312184623,0.3356006011,0.3481223866,0.3495776854,0.3499573975,0.3828907336,0.4303123068,0.3956788511 -boomlet_1676,0.3092046964,0.3118296981,0.3237391089,0.3111644961,0.3177720546676763,0.3138007667,0.3195228016,0.3219743377,0.3299388012031961,0.3230813822,0.3375521735936636,0.3407874083,0.3174772279,0.3161557532,0.3274155869,0.3288848917,0.3249830057,0.3452395086,0.3543739472,0.339933145,0.3472162291,0.3287924407,0.327227909,0.3539671692,0.3534196437,0.3605949767,0.3738144227,0.4490416803,0.3871649547 -boomlet_1855,0.1536945848,0.1536687115,0.1587321378,0.1532895691,0.159107712381043,0.1555421752,0.1647552298,0.1574463203,0.1833833926827814,0.1650041535,0.160893554,0.1977442882,0.1574817462,0.1576210054,0.1619848811,0.163484017,0.1777051742,0.1843830343,0.1882813296,0.1770202868,0.2153578233,0.1822080404,0.1937413977,0.2190390129,0.2241676522,0.2310231854,0.2028796299,0.2553250916,0.2044042451 -boomlet_1975,0.0635712481,0.0626839556,0.0905538287,0.0646200666,0.0947607758966617,0.0806787256,0.1160976808,0.1343890612,0.1695218930357366,0.111396157,0.1089755262069326,0.1353373301,0.0860445288,0.0984766355,0.1478435607,0.1244086678,0.1286565167,0.1960005761,0.2956348279,0.0860471747,0.3327476299,0.1340041246,0.3321969541,0.4015633576,0.3661623289,0.3240569452,0.4014330304,0.5204730917,0.4021568225 -boomlet_2187,0.2546107764,0.2542672197,0.2656522618,0.255390406,0.26960318636927,0.2602692843,0.2903383525,0.2640573045,0.300693347060175,0.2787503785,0.2741044488159532,0.3206839353,0.2837092153,0.268655356,0.2926881408,0.2890647491,0.3149817281,0.3042627349,0.3053239373,0.2972106993,0.4073318873,0.3251406783,0.3790448028,0.4339327838,0.4429809164,0.4414077782,0.4033328222,0.4651800067,0.4079644266 -boomlet_285,0.1495747919,0.1507213103,0.1637453323,0.1517381549,0.1700101085954018,0.1573398691,0.1907992815,0.1807812867,0.1908417729239064,0.2713245991,0.1855866952254182,0.1796136801,0.1591563728,0.1644625376,0.2203877038,0.2555644864,0.2649652282,0.2097047282,0.2104575884,0.2171958546,0.3599062976,0.2574381515,0.2577870463,0.3622854232,0.3443378916,0.3717445354,0.6725665365,0.6725665365,0.6908623001 -boomlet_619,0.2557797214,0.2572421585,0.2998264354,0.2606405884,0.2886290467923883,0.2686271378,0.3117435697,0.3174073125,0.3044973830847295,0.564625849,0.3293758810354539,0.3007913494,0.2786982938,0.2870848363,0.306216862,0.4683247328,0.3109702097,0.4760077804,1.1986603049,0.2844007002,0.8714422495,0.2994306038,0.284715861,0.9528967903,0.5880218176,0.8820872230000001,0.9458725566,0.9458725566,0.9676378964 -boomlet_772,0.1473015428,0.1476782193,0.1571995002,0.1491162833,0.1594187303483382,0.1523247081,0.1602755058,0.1610101792,0.1663831908724788,0.1912585405,0.1694926518253607,0.1717648806,0.1545926826,0.157764458,0.1698505857,0.184564584,0.1812428949,0.1798892391,0.1854859461,0.1895877433,0.2635365009,0.1670103509,0.178333941,0.3077275685,0.2378165952,0.2834336913,0.2919496092,0.2919496092,0.2993941879 -boomlet_963,0.3724573271,0.3756470932,0.3817032517,0.3738322407,0.3825851199522793,0.375685391,0.3978755656,0.3901485331,0.4326284188996913,0.4141920484,0.4120574240423074,0.4246316934,0.3789607432,0.3814302709,0.4169379174,0.4316260397,0.4042673384,0.4813266313,0.4468457357,0.4333187663,0.5013279656,0.3978373821,0.4156477219,0.5458354666,0.5164873151,0.5049570979,0.5169750434,0.5169750434,0.5254156815000001 -ecdc_ili,0.4283251859,0.4356330198,0.3759767271,0.4321405053,0.4215117220623104,0.429471832,0.417202445,0.4242536421,0.4103001340018452,0.3513953066,0.4257785081863403,0.3895551555,0.4689472768,0.4694937859,0.4756084915,0.4956143189,0.5432749093,0.4142561126,0.4321302873,0.6345231271,0.5675369603,0.5192435827,0.5018922,0.6168868373,0.5880377347,0.5694230217,0.553441182,0.553441182,0.5846513683 -entsoe_15T,0.0412594521,0.039411835,0.04219648,0.0397634133,0.0385403533219318,0.0451831162,0.0416073942,0.0420496511,0.0612814009508786,0.0411117247,0.040157807,0.0432881807,0.0522227057,0.0592820056,0.0423905654,0.0428303063,0.0564987165,0.0672225597,0.0565863135,0.0431686774,0.0676773905,0.0424691617,0.0676773905,0.4080646636,0.0676773905,0.0539835231,0.1434365068,0.0676773905,0.1567171749 -entsoe_1H,0.0292979012,0.0302689316,0.0329469333,0.0297360569,0.0373741016106866,0.0325106984,0.0358633265,0.0363473811,0.0318311435642059,0.0435542307,0.034928305,0.0329599207,0.036663767,0.0392701114,0.0395727229,0.0341011005,0.0554685768,0.0410886751,0.0340190017,0.046998361,0.0833483922,0.0625049117,0.0454110996,0.1569610277,0.0854086553,0.0836396267,0.1571170386,0.0792450116,0.1671798928 -entsoe_30T,0.029373914,0.0281497286,0.0367303018,0.0310720346,0.0429378234895424,0.0314183275,0.0473410114,0.0399606739,0.0520352563383743,0.0361486403,0.039940982,0.0400383065,0.0379183059,0.0440758761,0.0382675845,0.0378308186,0.0519962882,0.0513033053,0.0375924966,0.0489734209,0.0767401429,0.0484014626,0.0452643509,0.2411743389,0.0909343821,0.0721444578,0.1462993865,0.0870952156,0.1450240754 -epf_be,0.1217262142,0.120252408,0.115556011,0.1182908848,0.1203234715812035,0.1273098184,0.1125578376,0.1230011674,0.1183945017114153,0.1320250934,0.1138261450454592,0.1207207788,0.1319671659,0.1349344446,0.1227849215,0.1357350054,0.1303241445,0.1317892247,0.1508564425,0.1391220303,0.1754449336,0.1235230536,0.1393755624,0.2487520536,0.1986222899,0.1881915063,0.2375762583,0.1840044497,0.2400494102 -epf_de,0.5574299216,0.562706031,0.291016907,0.5804403734,0.2675378459677633,0.5396161448,0.5914115395,0.5786662197,0.316956678750021,0.5369788806,0.3753619818016886,0.3215312098,0.6668194214000001,0.5778780089000001,0.5364827276,0.5606897085,0.5721812874000001,0.6438459738,0.4304549488,0.3460585166,0.6023224579,0.2403375079,0.3084980987,0.6107009872,0.6818832147,0.6459929005,0.6107063781000001,0.7489839558,0.6189188878 -epf_fr,0.0778787367,0.0782983774,0.0680296275,0.0792749395,0.0652304057191373,0.0851043823,0.0771284032,0.079796696,0.0695476443783036,0.075549728,0.07957595,0.0623870421,0.0842988347,0.0867301313,0.0791283828,0.0876754684,0.0812654203,0.0897236727,0.0875960399,0.0732882333,0.1133464851,0.0623092488,0.0775092663,0.1492719597,0.1532071661,0.1293735398,0.1702834225,0.1298259961,0.1727491389 -epf_np,0.0562432965,0.0568525884,0.0381853723,0.0562802758,0.0359208090897249,0.0556997585,0.0639044813,0.0554376827,0.0354932686159747,0.057734546,0.043778507,0.0390593345,0.0613902184,0.0634048451,0.0542902104,0.0566988404,0.0496031295,0.0541779059,0.0580048539,0.0394225875,0.0682558116,0.0364949348,0.0453294971,0.1040808282,0.0786227771,0.0688152612,0.1036567875,0.0796461408,0.1036498403 -epf_pjm,0.0889006239,0.0922532882,0.0821098361,0.0896657335,0.0818221670130156,0.0943006606,0.0941735445,0.0893689399,0.0825470313216668,0.1108700694,0.095062098,0.0934064887,0.1034603161,0.093154341,0.0975614802,0.0937614763,0.0934227692,0.1043853207,0.1053596414,0.0745172796,0.0933488327,0.080205125,0.0786423047,0.1716884106,0.0984762136,0.1198625571,0.1717319927,0.1016348277,0.1742728945 -ercot_1D,0.079469776,0.0774693233,0.0765202672,0.0755929347,0.0751677823124108,0.0796014942,0.0756690356,0.0751543713,0.0772882952687702,0.0844589205,0.07988606,0.0889966895,0.0809221839,0.0808351619,0.0819215252,0.0793944329,0.0776411118,0.0842841024,0.0841483393,0.0845853073,0.1129253367,0.1038158012,0.0831419137,0.1178659491,0.1103588401,0.1169790959,0.1179466138,0.1245740203,0.1188580253 -ercot_1H,0.0728074035,0.0722163657,0.0691227315,0.0736111306,0.07569847401711,0.0724032038,0.0764717877,0.0705278079,0.0736621589104192,0.0827835367,0.072596434,0.0796147151,0.0720581415,0.0740544164,0.0716643823,0.0730120158,0.074077414,0.0757580694,0.0767356718,0.0734131741,0.0829790261,0.0770274513,0.0818516594,0.18085608,0.0749658528,0.0814625778,0.1561551629,0.0818516594,0.1562254033 -ercot_1M,0.0463833238,0.0476655416,0.0474946219,0.0466206557,0.0502313474664262,0.0486793381,0.04841726,0.052489105,0.0475964718270924,0.0469801367,0.048323109,0.0470302492,0.066887429,0.0535050327,0.0656316495,0.0511789475,0.051032866,0.0550054836,0.0562941835,0.057014872,0.0481692304,0.0580235552,0.0516416905,0.04707373,0.0493777897,0.0593784228,0.2662117718,0.0529377866,0.2937269471 -ercot_1W,0.0579955217,0.0572125417,0.0589590463,0.0587166003,0.0595392891811735,0.0587249383,0.0591913258,0.0586846144,0.0596668503179659,0.0600733111,0.0603493159636855,0.0645491631,0.0655970177,0.0607620769,0.0638612149,0.0599824862,0.0685063219,0.0666738621,0.066749705,0.0706809287,0.1453860556,0.0658125251,0.06337307,0.1469057543,0.1429765576,0.1458645745,0.1442763314,0.1442763314,0.1446279689 -favorita_stores_1D,0.1437441454,0.1437002054,0.1382725313,0.1501612198,0.1578592668716991,0.1603027881,0.1452467849,0.1518204392,0.1645023653209356,0.1629797409,0.1672702565789222,0.1461106376,0.1784628471,0.1713920408,0.156809864,0.1742722613,0.1561883375,0.1568033522,0.1604637991,0.1767520174,0.1788677609,0.173233511,0.1742511181,0.1871851757,0.1934442445,0.183486084,0.3056042532,0.2519854289,0.3071700049 -favorita_stores_1M,0.1488318169,0.1421965995,0.1303168371,0.1423759376,0.1241912466275409,0.1405769813,0.210253134,0.1893665845,0.1202766662499593,0.1795840023,0.1768015399575233,0.1159085175,0.1982291291,0.1668144128,0.2355426894,0.2636523319,0.2560960427,0.2186079118,0.2631369633,0.1468390062,0.146696035,0.1900056962,0.1900056962,0.156828165,0.1385348547,0.1535032235,0.1232989518,0.1900056962,0.1430777539 -favorita_stores_1W,0.128154192,0.1294175857,0.1289288979,0.1299436495,0.1210464556571245,0.1319886036,0.1308373912,0.1345634818,0.1219871360175983,0.1438093423,0.1327817104756832,0.1223397944,0.1510714535,0.1458085466,0.1555078895,0.1579625085,0.1497412801,0.1313115817,0.1374015627,0.1605108187,0.1436039782,0.1556403661,0.1635470427,0.1484425902,0.1500959677,0.1443628678,0.1528069122,0.1528069122,0.1540484097 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.0703794242,0.072750578,0.0611646173,0.0734428141,0.0827915859451537,0.0826301662,0.0873474585,0.0820303043,0.0839513682941389,0.0873474585,0.091998886,0.0755585427,0.0873474585,0.0931842433,0.0873474585,0.0873474585,0.0798803577,0.0803527192,0.0820513812,0.1004339458,0.1005134217,0.1411110018,0.1009706804,0.1010010868,0.1204928338,0.0961165557,0.1561206006,0.1460640723,0.1564211233 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.0789081966,0.0800672383,0.0719262234,0.0817581919,0.078260076563278,0.0814224618,0.0741879094,0.0772057417,0.0789625347274394,0.0749943449,0.08904193,0.0813819736,0.0888638815,0.086290531,0.0863027538,0.0940793492,0.0944761617,0.1003374582,0.103265625,0.0907197162,0.0746712369,0.1334237609,0.0907197162,0.075680572,0.0833974167,0.0943706955,0.0830064558,0.0907197162,0.0979339545 -favorita_transactions_1W,0.0559835294,0.0556297167,0.0562127232,0.0582538381,0.0626477803080113,0.0602192565,0.0628811317,0.0590786255,0.0670295506504546,0.0553172007,0.067616656,0.0670592321,0.0688530372,0.0663838481,0.0671727598,0.0628811317,0.0715127803,0.0633303918,0.0649015272,0.0708713793,0.0683781244,0.068687239,0.0784804137,0.0708877588,0.0730921635,0.0703343528,0.0709917221,0.0709917221,0.0733929446 -fred_md_2025/cee,0.0707690226,0.0705812827,0.0808948604,0.0729991602,0.0819502722512763,0.0802872354,0.0893563029,0.0771422882,0.0857970020011898,0.0893563029,0.086363164,0.0819316578,0.0893563029,0.0831655254,0.0893563029,0.0893563029,0.1094554538,0.0787889712,0.0853956633,0.2607037859,0.0880950069,0.203559816,0.1227237324,0.0874256547,0.1015705654,0.0903405107,0.0912865233,0.1825383744,0.089978595 -fred_md_2025/macro,0.0749571601,0.0744356383,0.0797789855,0.0748832737,0.0779213251088188,0.0758627334,0.0832975235,0.0786031675,0.085066312159333,0.0832975235,0.078294121,0.0843348455,0.0832975235,0.0774391771,0.0832975235,0.0832975235,0.0866654116,0.0902616068,0.0896123902,0.1126393629,0.0850931927,0.1064522807,0.0929593866,0.0855845029,0.0913136794,0.0868680126,0.0864161226,0.1316369623,0.0862326516 -fred_qd_2025/cee,0.1481604876,0.1426362665,0.1657290639,0.1492977307,0.1467020392839382,0.152661422,0.1558658062,0.1467262466,0.1583802024194579,0.1784543144,0.1704707093847294,0.1511925626,0.1329010946,0.1614065135,0.1528913558,0.1553945178,0.2050228651,0.1851033116,0.1863665634,0.210282653,0.153518619,0.2390326694,0.2260756122,0.1635254321,0.1628828007,0.1604369991,0.164697239,0.208385131,0.1613227839 -fred_qd_2025/macro,0.0993824289,0.1000438536,0.1070199647,0.1012513982,0.1006158524842458,0.1000970201,0.1036789811,0.1035667709,0.1117564129915322,0.1106020262,0.1059675091546595,0.1112298663,0.1021105708,0.1069171157,0.1058608331,0.1074347073,0.1156803335,0.1081842345,0.1087879791,0.151836426,0.1102426311,0.1312617622,0.1265599839,0.1130458025,0.1150225397,0.1135594269,0.1126509037,0.1422945036,0.1116643437 -gvar,0.0178175124,0.0177055351,0.0184834703,0.0178477471,0.0178318751808939,0.0178974614,0.0187466029,0.0185361033,0.0191344150897223,0.0184422133,0.0184560998837696,0.0199360902,0.0183975203,0.018342803,0.0185879217,0.0189676563,0.0219536834,0.018022062,0.0178566903,0.0237902802,0.0182359256,0.0205529398,0.0202029902,0.0183902986,0.0184923179,0.0183729023,0.0185624256,0.0239340232,0.0179424463 -hermes,0.0029982458,0.0029903587,0.0028845992,0.0030127204,0.0031936577070467,0.0031568631,0.0029142733,0.0030851759,0.0029399667564204,0.00291984,0.003069935,0.0029982359,0.004372123,0.0034898641,0.0033616599,0.0032080069,0.0036552635,0.0045409315,0.0045605713,0.0040168461,0.0078905801,0.004446494,0.0061507655,0.0088396817,0.0063903025,0.0081041064,0.0087068713,0.0087068713,0.0088381629 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.6898964712,0.6989381542,0.7004947938,0.697331471,0.6941349518733575,0.7028477360000001,0.6943961595,0.6893573270000001,0.7000773590745766,0.6963073358,0.6978458821773529,0.7261253304,0.6898838815,0.6986542811,0.69495873,0.69495873,0.7362602293,0.9140827896,0.6910062152,0.7108954875,0.8618716737000001,0.6970747937,0.702080134,0.9335796355,0.8072637297,0.9374909955,1.0676994373,1.0205005959,1.0792345186 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.4316688312,0.43104428,0.4327760933,0.4321480393,0.4351591583292074,0.4371998036,0.4307300691,0.4324219853,0.4324449795613909,0.4266847133,0.4339944511651993,0.4374522976,0.4363569789,0.4409505466,0.4394375657,0.4394375657,0.4750745565,0.4416683838,0.4443902888,0.4718466659,0.5484556803,0.4486028884,0.4666803532,0.6528082018,0.5603942556,0.5616531388,0.7169096389,0.7169096389,0.7343846609 -hospital,0.0894252458,0.0895184447,0.0955333467,0.0892451238,0.0896761227702259,0.0897854684,0.0891746492,0.0908275207,0.0860761244547937,0.0896269345,0.093112975,0.093092021,0.0952146633,0.0932818859,0.094797316,0.094797316,0.1026285514,0.1298282834,0.1253974395,0.1193316502,0.0920567958,0.1125786601,0.0946332295,0.092793151,0.1056054813,0.0992142454,0.1174956093,0.0954293196,0.1240455631 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.5316702001,0.5317086108,0.5318945219,0.5319372066,0.532216724912936,0.5321823976,0.533603767,0.532626473,0.5317346961387386,0.5326887853,0.5330127388238907,0.5385044329,0.5342081621,0.531517079,0.5332016895,0.5337376775,0.5358891719000001,0.5358010023,0.5356471101,0.5397762032,0.5351516929,0.5374586122,0.5427489841,0.5349606606,0.5348244904,0.5510431179,0.7243229402,0.7622172844,0.7295191623 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.2120413037,0.2120673837,0.2115394616,0.2119459122,0.2122187572835266,0.2119039432,0.212422525,0.2142321087,0.2123995832706636,0.2128423192,0.2133830897510051,0.2126885808,0.2185049319,0.2133726977,0.2152673571,0.214606831,0.2139370313,0.2980487657,0.3185996988,0.2124488276,0.2126255133,0.2172499698,0.2241780852,0.2122781935,0.212284724,0.2190619932,0.2933695345,0.2933695345,0.30397943 -jena_weather_10T,0.2381326212,0.2364187084,0.2751553475,0.2388019544,0.2736158503599924,0.2394360428,0.2575870043,0.2777656168,0.274556936678544,0.2508563394,0.29237038131181,0.2845234713,0.2477512575,0.248307264,0.3021136367,0.3021136367,0.3908659499,0.6868431996000001,2.3233309172,0.3358074778,0.3329980606,0.3070544087,0.3602273192,0.3862366289,1.1769855511,0.3075604148,0.3408485187,0.7879570855,0.5317361626 -jena_weather_1D,0.2912040897,0.2887872805,0.2763651402,0.2838994514,0.275730505348338,0.2841558883,0.2713017491,0.2731164275,0.2883526172944854,0.2695639732,0.282268888444551,0.2937633336,0.2761715227,0.2883060415,0.2784405037,0.2784405037,0.306889223,0.4845484091,0.4935773836,0.3739982605,0.3410053086,0.3702311494,0.4102490617,0.3844679017,0.339473425,0.3648304911,0.3843897424,0.4190868354,0.4042778884 -jena_weather_1H,0.2354798981,0.2383327399,0.2537129335,0.241841166,0.252993695511208,0.2529699124,0.2603536972,0.2506694056,0.2720920265802741,0.2460116829,0.260542159,0.2842135462,0.2461927327,0.2504618898,0.2519024334,0.2519024334,0.435202554,0.4259697267,0.5410017644,0.3207887493,0.3278975253,0.3113825357,0.2966964214,0.3521687294,0.9374861897,0.2954772801,0.3285733754,0.7711870189000001,0.3343243916 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,1.5392968909,1.4621045199,1.3604878279,1.4419420445,1.551704859955992,1.6394006523,1.5299117671,1.5299117671,1.9850237852251584,1.5299117671,1.9840271651744843,3.077112519,1.5299117671,1.5364563418,1.5299117671,1.5299117671,1.5299117671,1.9401393931,2.2259673391,1.6428112913,2.0407144947,3.6161094533,2.936932361,2.0494639075,2.1490854622,2.1184664097,2.0376436485,3.3046867081,2.1939118384 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7133054569,0.7110946108,0.7152167839,0.7193285459000001,0.7184514268784263,0.7141805984,0.7140720358,0.7220694889,0.7280128026486745,0.7367301758,0.7096802026033402,0.7490445323,0.7094413248,0.7662754296000001,0.7286467308,0.7228399275,0.7455375254000001,0.8453182855,0.8151955358,0.9000932678,0.7985928345000001,0.8802452778000001,0.9001969755,0.8128879563,0.7844091744,0.8038048094,0.8071428746,0.9081870668,0.8271189945 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,1.5976285128,1.4817023272,1.5203947999,1.5396878753,1.6324984859219562,1.6558394604000002,1.9992300071,1.5899848725,1.8903806612933445,1.4798187482,1.791469299793243,2.8776818296,1.6224578674,1.5761006983,1.3630170017,2.6893891346,1.8708190978,1.4766293165,2.1400668774,3.053597237,2.1525887472,3.3462458587,3.0259279075,2.32307942,2.5791021542,2.3053816983,2.2917796297,3.1220666646,2.3595298613 -m5_1D,0.6927740983,0.6932295881,0.7030550556,0.6939208981,0.7010535568530128,0.6978408809000001,0.7110158815000001,0.7024517583000001,0.6968792711756289,0.7110158815000001,0.7149345278739929,0.9158941766,0.7110158815000001,0.7025500003,0.7110158815000001,0.7110158815000001,0.735691011,0.7365313975000001,0.7321054822,0.7066948733,0.7639724706000001,0.7414812581,0.7256180708000001,0.7714368024,0.7716781566,0.7779017905000001,1.0240883478,0.9158941766,1.0368540879 -m5_1M,0.4349113535,0.4341409243,0.4288781907,0.4322732639,0.4195289821968709,0.433231795,0.4248804523,0.430584818,0.4225071820387371,0.4380192311,0.4297947883605957,0.4358401106,0.4596618577,0.4456052767,0.4363168514,0.4455042206,0.4508921802,0.4386853319,0.4413139906,0.4377760631,0.4417751202,0.44540304,0.4859348215,0.4605289718,0.4600670833,0.491009323,0.4776365015,0.5107534377,0.5485711973 -m5_1W,0.4232106322,0.4211308969,0.4283166904,0.421826037,0.4231924562751414,0.4236058496,0.4334180243,0.4280506995,0.422991471830725,0.4342662078,0.4324602484703064,0.4276139788,0.4278170503,0.4302277151,0.4286455322,0.4334180243,0.4258472919,0.4221415048,0.4239931625,0.4185501947,0.4386763422,0.4264766461,0.4555515595,0.4468326682,0.4387526054,0.4475454427,0.5041812027,0.5041812027,0.5192106105000001 -proenfo_gfc12,0.0894321188,0.0880874627,0.069590554,0.0863093135,0.0959833975576386,0.0922328972,0.0909613257,0.0953878287,0.0633806559721651,0.0909613257,0.086517815,0.0867341377,0.0909613257,0.0976604625,0.0909613257,0.0909613257,0.0814341474,0.0897610226,0.096319061,0.1301813015,0.1407506283,0.1235864021,0.1012209718,0.2331060724,0.1193260876,0.1359507238,0.2325648626,0.1285183847,0.2455491602 -proenfo_gfc14,0.0421604433,0.0418803639,0.0263798704,0.0430661695,0.0229218166049671,0.04333303,0.0454557414,0.0447395105,0.0253661414846117,0.0454557414,0.0363620174583047,0.0311294867,0.0454557414,0.0485747861,0.0454557414,0.0454557414,0.022570387,0.0294872716,0.0338078079,0.0241077913,0.0540094747,0.0324675324,0.0242372493,0.0646636099,0.0571345765,0.0579787873,0.1831386411,0.0586917949,0.1959836865 -proenfo_gfc17,0.0721622244,0.0732475936,0.0395739348,0.0718695364,0.055937051186096,0.0749119102,0.0744532842,0.0764463822,0.043229257865868,0.0744532842,0.061544747,0.0563418382,0.0744532842,0.0844229642,0.0744532842,0.0744532842,0.0343229823,0.0460992663,0.0534558429,0.1062402308,0.0959939727,0.1096548523,0.0901274709,0.1663142711,0.0943354609,0.0931363579,0.1911468012,0.1077746007,0.2018542439 -redset_15T,0.2629407655,0.2584044217,0.2581138326,0.2689812455,0.2991558771232425,0.290728309,0.3049023177,0.2957181564,0.2962388039321681,0.305721585,0.3037231624126434,0.2860991548,0.3036240123,0.3099392216,0.3051173713,0.3266223047,0.3414731026,0.3616185109,0.3642203028,0.3828954284,0.3900802548,0.3900802548,0.3900802548,0.3900802548,0.3900802548,0.4040436425,0.5721419561000001,0.3900802548,0.5907099378 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name,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,FlowState,citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,CatBoost,LightGBM,TFT,Stat. 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d821b34d2976171821a747802a1a29c563b08e5c..9ac44be4437bd3ca3c23eadf0fd9caa36ff55c2c 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE_baseline_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WAPE_baseline_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,CatBoost,LightGBM,TFT,Stat. 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+us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv index c028cc122e5596a85e4c1ebdc9b6ea3a91278d32..1ff7bf06f826170118544a3e481c893bd86db26a 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,CatBoost,LightGBM,TFT,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoETS,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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a/tables/pivot_WQL.csv b/tables/pivot_WQL.csv index 927efb5d3084c7a472d217edae1c3f914aadd65e..60c1f675b807c4574347d179953cf7ad9fecbbbc 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WQL.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,FlowState,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.088140917,0.0854041008,0.0854547853,0.0861819589,0.0894876775906081,0.0883123431,0.0914609728,0.1008164756688193,0.0925313491,0.097021875,0.0899486611,0.096110358,0.0951986305,0.0910278902,0.0933383153,0.0933383153,0.1046640183,0.0969683943,0.0936103841,0.1224205307,0.1145544583,0.1224205307,0.1333792326,0.1398110405,0.1889663006,0.1702353739,0.1224205307,0.2051287363,0.2108337564 -ETT_1D,0.2599714581,0.2626770496,0.2710211303,0.2572776704,0.272930550496092,0.2597752993,0.2612366718,0.272102609926132,0.2678886959,0.2697927874176534,0.300295241,0.3002489369,0.2738553924,0.2703842771,0.2669855109,0.2669855109,0.3448764451,0.3129149392,0.3256112824,0.3227852614,0.364606939,0.3320927514,0.3635917917,0.3295882505,0.3649904644,0.360480833,0.3642035745,0.3538102937,0.3621092269 -ETT_1H,0.1929432618,0.1900495573,0.1892332611,0.1885384479,0.1900401517515014,0.1905551921,0.1923900276,0.1991839804884336,0.1916135933,0.2030089983134973,0.1991423882,0.2028562173,0.1902070524,0.1940800065,0.205947624,0.205947624,0.2104472639,0.2146782131,0.2123622054,0.2620350459,0.216892047,0.2275419988,0.2780071233,0.2765730888,0.3554423083,0.387905148,0.2597090183,0.4903424451,0.5136644934 -ETT_1W,0.4180629794,0.4144705894,0.4029936945,0.4173539396,0.4115323076224085,0.3873589951,0.3834384081,0.4043071272727572,0.3998766684,0.3800696590547889,0.4156744779,0.4188145741,0.3886729217,0.375313951,0.3737931632,0.3737931632,0.5013663683,0.4643316617,0.4457754737,0.449544632,0.5017324149,0.4761461152,0.6083512572,0.522257355,0.4577441808,0.4986518854,0.4614224693,0.4614224693,0.4961494692 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.0294338099,0.0294150126,0.0292914529,0.0295119101,0.029343550974428,0.0299183023,0.029926259,0.029113317812325,0.0292182088,0.0302701209290482,0.0292334826,0.0296560044,0.0313239292,0.0316128852,0.0304002738,0.0304002738,0.0318705254,0.0326217509,0.0341395852,0.0310410872,0.0355857727,0.0306907047,0.0458887826,0.0451010415,0.0311914855,0.0325479384,0.0397058571,0.0919262659,0.0978699313 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.0547949407,0.0536904784,0.0542176932,0.053951477,0.0565443850452321,0.0566445643,0.0562291392,0.0571353928490012,0.0529133781,0.060038525,0.055307924,0.05699313,0.0599025567,0.0636305787,0.0662523771,0.0662523771,0.0566262652,0.0664487294,0.0600405194,0.1489143854,0.0616685513,0.1009451454,0.0786934842,0.0759691755,0.2388070951,0.2528752457,0.1307515175,0.3038598558,0.3206568541 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.0574848175,0.0585774695,0.0606371472,0.0593876316,0.0596519653250292,0.0586603039,0.0594513843,0.0773047333192915,0.0643709018,0.087859362,0.0656437853,0.066720663,0.0606569718,0.0595339252,0.0781392419,0.0781392419,0.0603027556,0.0714930823,0.0645059699,0.1151931596,0.0592252566,0.1111745205,0.0927548554,0.0936457159,0.1270606325,0.121969972,0.081199984,0.1936404655,0.210202567 -M_DENSE_1D,0.0712116931,0.0820707894,0.0844952343,0.0858611805,0.0886700731435607,0.0900759525,0.0821914373,0.0779291246383927,0.0773717212,0.078658646,0.0799768636,0.0808116118,0.0906172569,0.0934896105,0.0817335467,0.0817335467,0.0763471457,0.0844361527,0.1097093144,0.1131422313,0.1047206831,0.1051447846,0.098169453,0.0957110443,0.1323504646,0.1459052349,0.1367572058,0.2323397334,0.2363624963 -M_DENSE_1H,0.1198308475,0.1206878319,0.1189427286,0.1208815859,0.1234841621996513,0.1239245022,0.1208851977,0.1182210877017234,0.1143436057,0.1251987350445681,0.1197384744,0.1325863612,0.1265983434,0.1484773567,0.1209575592,0.1209575592,0.1177044596,0.1339606641,0.1212766207,0.2346087824,0.1196581335,0.2211301613,0.1423458044,0.1469697816,12.8518608055,0.7918015548,0.2731296131,0.84829413,0.8946267050000001 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.1878149403,0.1881049346,0.1880418965,0.1878794648,0.1892348284603172,0.1897678128,0.1889248146,0.1906272257459292,0.1894354422,0.195287114680846,0.1925528369,0.2065247801,0.1917754095,0.191384151,0.197437778,0.197437778,0.1956325057,0.2118998785,0.193562555,0.2672484294,0.1945023612,0.2672484294,0.2575205372,0.2672559319,0.9991056751,0.2434722417,0.2672484294,0.6619538384,0.6804962505000001 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.1329118955,0.1293773273,0.1290500386,0.1283504497,0.1326306384216551,0.1300923261,0.1368741884,0.1364035796594594,0.1394973218,0.1420842058727177,0.1423549,0.1779786853,0.1399881244,0.1347664611,0.1447212932,0.1447212932,0.2566667088,0.1764986928,0.3277689026,0.2449234495,0.1674335532,0.2187159408,0.2283900417,0.2222432176,4510502977.541462,0.3559208311,0.2910650923,0.9157567452,1.0097515601 -australian_tourism,0.0714093581,0.0825056311,0.0787500875,0.0827576086,0.0800695621998885,0.0957395858,0.0861105624,0.073639417171522,0.0761527549,0.084948436,0.0939951849,0.0731324108,0.104615521,0.1125261016,0.1053900171,0.1140447009,0.0832723657,0.0836038879,0.0952111131,0.0747720206,0.1181869043,0.0866216851,0.1127308877,0.1144700197,0.0760110551,0.0823354804,0.0905870679,0.1922018184,0.2141353268 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.2574968709,0.2244547152,0.2111626143,0.2192658523,0.2806886765297424,0.2547160692,0.3395892761,0.2891392135182087,0.3062390652,0.3064375358196253,0.317324097,0.3537159678,0.4205278839,0.3127927463,0.3259227696,0.3259227696,1.2105309626,0.4028991374,0.330934658,1.2739406783,0.4886973323,1.4044947576,0.4824019434,0.6596941917,1.4288888476,1.354213156,2.0969368334,1.3379066539,1.3508241874 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.3972980474,0.5406422775,0.4756971941,0.6450790756,1.2323583695636575,0.7756543999000001,1.2724528657,0.2942824648852123,0.7904916189000001,1.3284335511794023,0.3375026133,0.8602604906,1.0777923479,1.0471463511,1.2750077013,1.2750077013,1.099758403,0.5857720953000001,0.2968753511,1.5128526942,1.7906402169,1.8771775481,1.2816541795,1.2750427219,1.6113720868,1.6069322946,2.2877704897,1.4507804454,1.7316491341 -boomlet_1062,0.4575715706,0.4463541158,0.4462456214,0.4464520402,0.4647639706114732,0.4511908987,0.462540047,0.4580502677279735,0.4710064002,0.5215730971016691,0.5207087351,0.4806963473,0.4560730466,0.4532902104,0.4872201342,0.540923993,0.4692609374,0.5396810790000001,0.4948762907,0.7822110512,0.5042712811,0.5907259586,0.6947080201,0.7310192884000001,1.0658179183,1.0855392662,0.7418110943,3.1996986673,3.464647215 -boomlet_1209,0.2624618736,0.2336539477,0.2330213724,0.2347769724,0.2691416577649201,0.238664163,0.2759885512,0.2787792943876104,0.2609844697,0.2987229104819696,0.2599845364,0.3729714881,0.2510785204,0.2509175761,0.2879466627,0.301826322,0.2777961689,0.2937933689,0.2816179357,1.0148176094,0.3602056404,0.4535022053,0.3974305495,0.4040311759,0.5015055777,1.1157526247,0.5015055777,1.328999921,1.4420052382000002 -boomlet_1225,0.0982049927,0.0954240786,0.0953608891,0.0955606494,0.0984204901498371,0.0962455277,0.0990409314,0.104774613205639,0.1000748977,0.102271642507924,0.1111818845,0.117595053,0.0969513138,0.098032793,0.1024577962,0.1066372427,0.1083552458,0.1172112941,0.0998310841,0.1451941336,0.1011485766,0.12260998,0.1300694604,0.1335584832,0.1651551358,0.1711256418,0.3809038981,0.3809038981,0.3876340759 -boomlet_1230,0.2619779044,0.2374973345,0.2369084617,0.237018003,0.26440938884331,0.241320235,0.2653064284,0.2822216866653908,0.2547608466,0.2930098247119032,0.2600824059,0.3872938531,0.247533868,0.2516059078,0.2744689054,0.3010213735,0.2772630345,0.2814650284,0.2774274362,0.9994018454,0.3432215502,0.4477425115,0.3315908095,0.3572037361,228079607857629.03,1.1951987922,0.5006062673,1.749087496,1.8955551069 -boomlet_1282,0.285764271,0.275789842,0.2762090183,0.2696006255,0.2815309786135034,0.2808980282,0.2813823067,0.2826336390996576,0.2769507583,0.2972790308946546,0.2981448892,0.2878687869,0.2783352876,0.2823022293,0.2943955518,0.3174313196,0.295522133,0.3125554342,0.2829636153,0.4977332198,0.2867642378,0.3750317969,0.490119278,0.5002534204,0.6261309796,0.6672579183,1.0473420207,1.0473420207,1.0675288198 -boomlet_1487,0.1664420374,0.1502774311,0.149464937,0.1510379668,0.1700537493504156,0.1579855205,0.1679334305,0.1760315116296859,0.1621616582,0.1876923194856919,0.1681163978,0.283528405,0.1572768216,0.1677403883,0.179562264,0.190011281,0.2008881968,0.1963999731,0.2095616888,0.2664583485,0.2116919249,0.2570055801,0.2090217151,0.2479427342,0.2835559204,0.3266562805,0.3287160259,2.1936503487,2.3761204352 -boomlet_1631,0.2500221983,0.2427863183,0.2418718722,0.2436279945,0.2549678125106477,0.2505825906,0.2578011825,0.2691060311217165,0.2521962154,0.2664987990773727,0.2585599927,0.2954976367,0.2530857522,0.2527798035,0.259432808,0.2712471357,0.2721021543,0.2762733263,0.2660098261,0.3064743764,0.2698786224,0.3057833278,0.3409899953,0.3811041726,0.3219452018,0.324670261,0.3678343489,0.5939295732000001,0.6115095201 -boomlet_1676,0.2538630455,0.2440430702,0.2431696568,0.244204697,0.2516051751255557,0.2476536476,0.2548401,0.2611497048725296,0.2519960915,0.2794884492228666,0.2602736189,0.2844321863,0.2495785851,0.2490162864,0.2579772293,0.2757684538,0.2739319634,0.274422727,0.2642072572,0.3190410513,0.2681407295,0.3003211978,0.3452395085,0.354373947,0.3561141453,0.3689668234,0.3899388202,0.5376397046,0.5530190574 -boomlet_1855,0.1371847144,0.1303276358,0.1303468418,0.1304422632,0.1355772825956679,0.1337652069,0.1348268939,0.1533345196969808,0.1418942616,0.138325562576723,0.1399310588,0.1945666432,0.1353545304,0.1344972702,0.139558043,0.1402605794,0.1508071358,0.1563253928,0.1573051491,0.2389634824,0.1657957086,0.2316298817,0.1843830347,0.18828133,0.2553622581,0.2591897671,0.3053456375,0.5272950774,0.5309525567 -boomlet_1975,0.0754861445,0.0571749502,0.0604986385,0.0576372056,0.079829095292137,0.0692389795,0.1095269694,0.1398090383735634,0.0946619153,0.09152515,0.0925888876,0.1158491882,0.072667753,0.0823803293,0.1195154442,0.1030843609,0.0756380608,0.1103445012,0.1080876757,0.3109341661,0.2550894899,0.3101025558,0.196000576,0.2956348279,0.3508947926,0.3645838609,0.490065287,0.3511931898,0.3522290761 -boomlet_2187,0.2318940214,0.2220159855,0.2221525028,0.223165607,0.2335178119690479,0.2273386278,0.2304085286,0.259871483175814,0.2575487453,0.2394083595246066,0.2415090596,0.2968289885,0.2443697139,0.2347347998,0.2578882697,0.2524757438,0.2565067123,0.2800640842,0.2938253489,0.4312238248,0.3124107364,0.4412020453,0.3042627344,0.305323937,0.445695455,0.4740037124,0.569989729,1.0418096521,1.049295268 -boomlet_285,0.1346407886,0.1238820031,0.1234825373,0.1251907933,0.1453486610567968,0.1298710644,0.148143136,0.1500551836785001,0.1683399577,0.1550531614226526,0.2390206753,0.1471872203,0.1332978724,0.1369389616,0.1889532567,0.2234209762,0.1894922508,0.2244579194,0.21729835,0.3030251372,0.2155289637,0.2917086037,0.2097047283,0.2104575885,0.3012758228,0.3165758913,1.2032068554,1.2032068554,1.2258270457 -boomlet_619,0.2302330542,0.195585374,0.1948278258,0.1976896456,0.2270239567779028,0.2060479072,0.2471279568,0.2317217825076673,0.2458341339,0.2591773047142831,0.4334947114,0.232811959,0.2161466212,0.2202544188,0.2356420104,0.3764453393,0.2181665546,0.2649462131,0.2270142354,0.6585898854000001,0.2162911272,0.4527380943,0.4760077805,1.1986603046,0.7635945062,0.6993259862,0.9678549923,0.9678549923,0.9877621571 -boomlet_772,0.133101379,0.1244245684,0.1242450137,0.1253230551,0.1353156135299467,0.12852107,0.1366825739,0.1418676127916021,0.1358824184,0.1443361895980726,0.1613185863,0.1557498583,0.1308470643,0.1334271117,0.1437870275,0.155831971,0.1594582758,0.1611776721,0.1420780794,0.4436068427,0.1500861487,0.3102148884,0.1798892395,0.1854859464,233223016.47921944,0.5422949312,0.9858607218,0.9858607218,1.0040136571 -boomlet_963,0.3166849574,0.3099802004,0.3064831724,0.308619475,0.317416330722044,0.3113023917,0.3257730396,0.3554307158649718,0.3291269599,0.3422623396128161,0.3424340999999999,0.3758250987,0.3150750398,0.3185355621,0.3420300574,0.3596501241,0.3637814001,0.3456713575,0.331166608,0.6331985560000001,0.3449654206,0.5019102045,0.4813266328,0.4468457359,0.7424657095,0.7165913671,0.8113458731000001,0.8113458731000001,0.8256079502 -ecdc_ili,0.3096012701,0.3768001645,0.3682858362,0.3760473761,0.3396623011592334,0.370964991,0.3706244119,0.340187972155641,0.3434282743,0.3595858341033879,0.2894218856,0.3285141119,0.3959245404,0.4016054767,0.3850819864,0.4167010576,0.5339076574,0.4694310556,0.4343346537,0.542736267,0.4234147823,0.5348657716,0.4142561218,0.4321302967,0.5818744538,0.5760490117,0.55470151,0.55470151,0.5751070376 -entsoe_15T,0.0332921944,0.031057604,0.032596973,0.0308313594,0.0299915186203087,0.037019735,0.03370606,0.0520785391352681,0.0334792124,0.0324571116175732,0.0331917966,0.034292722,0.0413367722,0.0461939652,0.0343344442,0.0362665583,0.0356088535,0.0499695365,0.0338209899,0.056612433,0.056612433,0.056612433,0.0672225595,0.0565863133,0.313985467,0.04302748,0.056612433,0.115491565,0.1262425675 -entsoe_1H,0.0261903902,0.0248996699,0.023857759,0.0243409378,0.0301016405209215,0.0265039239,0.0293722588,0.025239896577241,0.029016943,0.0295101891685257,0.0369877853,0.0270659752,0.0302629636,0.0319005016,0.033285571,0.0281751907,0.0405866666,0.050980506,0.0530802855,0.0660394337,0.0369285607,0.0666871832,0.0410886758,0.0340190019,0.1446894284,0.0693891454,0.0798215743,0.1448301709,0.1529602095 -entsoe_30T,0.0290675118,0.0223879477,0.0231075017,0.024570865,0.0342792270553542,0.025097932,0.0314140317,0.0445350341243368,0.0388367365,0.032983912,0.0299812196,0.0331614495,0.0302188271,0.036241917,0.0318440586,0.0321248654,0.0393913235,0.0485585461,0.0383760424,0.0612245671,0.0362258754,0.0731621073,0.0513033062,0.0375924974,0.1815717143,0.0571609073,0.0725922166,0.1142494541,0.1132384603 -epf_be,0.0901568527,0.0948601444,0.0952412087,0.093115602,0.0957745773429249,0.1006279492,0.0962218884,0.0924509066869714,0.0904647786,0.091655865,0.1069107573,0.0955200867,0.1056021358,0.1056879737,0.0968269743,0.106932535,0.1074787897,0.116974555,0.0981962206,0.2109049118,0.1098670692,0.1868416275,0.131789225,0.1508564422,0.2658805243,0.2582438045,0.2012625839,0.5357212996,0.5396597547 -epf_de,0.2407177006,0.4601042378,0.4672038155,0.4683589436,0.2187945782836869,0.4684737795,0.4684522911,0.2506965721624185,0.4775486462,0.3025435172509976,0.4419724801,0.2518831942,0.5439422258000001,0.4621323091,0.4585770884,0.4643713184,0.2383553645,0.5102784096,0.20301509,0.4882155131,0.2673988947,0.5432797568000001,0.6438459348000001,0.4304549385,0.5287818092000001,0.6490481058,0.5919143997,0.5286529229,0.5344012403 -epf_fr,0.0548184758,0.0627413349,0.0628034148,0.0640514743,0.0523390454943642,0.0693790181,0.063925129,0.0549769522291364,0.0640304463,0.06438319,0.0625904816,0.0489318759,0.0687564497,0.069329218,0.0646047834,0.0684544774,0.0590774782,0.0719692742,0.050103017,0.1676462056,0.0608180576,0.171487674,0.0897236718,0.0875960389,0.1386675644,0.2296495477,0.1818024024,0.5500836951,0.5542629368 -epf_np,0.0297236562,0.0444557228,0.0435167492,0.0435206839,0.027714667237253,0.044517994,0.0438147562,0.0286831665771985,0.0519221,0.035176084,0.0478681768,0.0300774999,0.0468630667,0.0514617867,0.0419786745,0.0445199614,0.0315756309,0.0428252373,0.0288200218,0.0573880566,0.0371443189,0.0636813178,0.0541779055,0.0580048531,0.086372811,0.0578512541,0.0691889058,0.0868798682,0.0869585172 -epf_pjm,0.0667749027,0.073580878,0.0709860111,0.0713664621,0.0654851700023029,0.0749215636,0.071403604,0.0666314027281418,0.0757086151,0.074506095,0.0931649074,0.0747918069,0.0795523282,0.0738735407,0.0766169612,0.0739331273,0.0601940101,0.084093308,0.0640765474,0.086260965,0.0619307319,0.0855296797,0.1043853204,0.1053596408,0.1606961463,0.1068456977,0.0908421956,0.1641666586,0.1656245554 -ercot_1D,0.059742223,0.0594182305,0.0610870289,0.0586035995,0.0581843058902675,0.0608222803,0.0583644776,0.059748412824441,0.0590120341,0.062049638,0.0677790412,0.0684168152,0.0622004808,0.0622512311,0.0637608291,0.0620146905,0.0672958728,0.0665392831,0.0838270056,0.0936050684,0.0669529065,0.0865494548,0.0842841008,0.0841483377,0.1027502478,0.1055339552,0.1044921679,0.1043182678,0.1051661229 -ercot_1H,0.0517757176,0.0551108047,0.0555156919,0.0569035998,0.0570341696300243,0.0561599381,0.0542294904,0.0566087326387195,0.0584985426,0.0593544619029159,0.0690541192,0.0618277813,0.0555308677,0.0578080842,0.0563341027,0.0597259069,0.0571174625,0.0625128045,0.0594370003,0.0642267414,0.0682466944,0.0597358018,0.0757580693,0.0767356717,0.1494485063,0.0646341807,0.0682466944,0.1331050238,0.1354763369 -ercot_1M,0.0374032877,0.0372743857,0.0366225782,0.0368971338,0.0395091153240838,0.0386906414,0.0419160577,0.0376060321528297,0.0380629909,0.038116942,0.0369871672,0.0371193551,0.0530202312,0.04260245,0.0509930124,0.0398626935,0.046621763,0.0434627402,0.0473243439,0.0375336712,0.0418023356,0.0388325707,0.0550054836,0.0562941835,0.0371511279,0.0470765052,0.0427842586,0.2106942527,0.2307212042 -ercot_1W,0.0461530362,0.0448595907,0.045468704,0.0457371809,0.0463193341174064,0.0460305391,0.0457429263,0.0461981248612772,0.0465659059,0.0470696070802426,0.0474641923,0.0503533756,0.0515345865,0.047263365,0.0502061941,0.0467287195,0.0562783142,0.0583864951,0.0520912746,0.1138242996,0.0499525576,0.1129826874,0.0666738599,0.0667497027,0.1134717335,0.1163159858,0.1143459151,0.1143459151,0.1147730701 -favorita_stores_1D,0.1111436042,0.1168536377,0.1168442309,0.1215724533,0.1282745030253956,0.1304018233,0.1242660249,0.1316709729696958,0.1184216613,0.1366714831005482,0.1335502347,0.1178973226,0.143982699,0.1396156429,0.1278709711,0.1418629323,0.1460581146,0.1353609503,0.1427451258,0.1606240879,0.1449535179,0.1647292421,0.1568033495,0.1604637963,0.1672181851,0.1778642628,0.2375760783,0.407924062,0.4110111744 -favorita_stores_1M,0.1214689688,0.125016244,0.1268337189,0.125466025,0.1003219158781188,0.1277282603,0.1421527991,0.0956066633468445,0.1508910378,0.134550828215653,0.1339783194,0.0943302395,0.1390587722,0.1345474296,0.1725604577,0.1852146109,0.1403603984,0.2222006124,0.1734554139,0.1265352804,0.1734554139,0.1314480379,0.2186079186,0.2631369718,0.1328922998,0.1244588255,0.1715121002,0.1701131596,0.1843808732 -favorita_stores_1W,0.1088586482,0.1084604221,0.1086135061,0.1106568431,0.0978730915756015,0.1101220279,0.1134128786,0.0979269717117583,0.109472936,0.1090090717682276,0.1184634283,0.0990307784,0.1222012023,0.1187495935,0.1243048273,0.1268154753,0.137616023,0.1312294599,0.1439432317,0.1336292353,0.1438160383,0.1331314369,0.1313115845,0.1374015655,0.1429768358,0.1407957933,0.1608274594,0.1608274594,0.1626164075 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.0493905059,0.0597569804,0.0585469662,0.0613257258,0.0689886887751918,0.0690001943,0.0677041912,0.0683705151055696,0.0735763955,0.076640723,0.0735763955,0.0597601794,0.0735763955,0.0779731992,0.0735763955,0.0735763955,0.0871645751,0.0710714949,0.1249546747,0.0949008641,0.0886693646,0.1055051906,0.0803527194,0.0820513813,0.0944759339,0.0991455647,0.1403339152,0.2372471037,0.2388998483 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.0604582892,0.0714437498,0.0695020926,0.0711058515,0.0657638258517205,0.0709101213,0.0683964379,0.0683309621120336,0.0642577124,0.073175635,0.0634107492,0.070987216,0.0771189506,0.073264901,0.0756335167,0.0799691925,0.0862070337,0.0834713904,0.1104679984,0.070584588,0.0862070337,0.0776326593,0.1003374601,0.1032656271,0.0709936959,0.0829960481,0.0855815697,0.1052862109,0.1152703352 -favorita_transactions_1W,0.0471234517,0.0474269501,0.0472425707,0.0483930301,0.0522559813466423,0.0511042722,0.0492598373,0.0535137810819275,0.0528246687,0.056355939,0.0460898192,0.0548143302,0.0576286349,0.0561099801,0.05694461,0.0528246687,0.0655290829,0.0632163955,0.0676774676,0.0648065089,0.0723931655,0.0648478227,0.0633303921,0.0649015275,0.0694461919,0.0703094334,0.0783787894,0.0783787894,0.0802804813 -fred_md_2025/cee,0.0668234172,0.0601752215,0.0594535568,0.0623804609,0.071483381693202,0.0650855324,0.0670834959,0.0738429289824919,0.0750783838,0.073665786,0.0750783838,0.0690469795,0.0750783838,0.0709791938,0.0750783838,0.0750783838,0.2571046813,0.0954701869,0.1719437399,0.1051946757,0.1151105177,0.1336604251,0.0787889724,0.0853956646,0.0757646767,0.1182489158,0.2073879584,0.1174362958,0.1155920484 -fred_md_2025/macro,0.0658449,0.0614460757,0.0612483994,0.0618735966,0.0646369179562897,0.0624999144,0.0651736736,0.070834336752446,0.0689005701,0.064978633,0.0689005701,0.0696180895,0.0689005701,0.0649675888,0.0689005701,0.0689005701,0.096670918,0.0758142866,0.0936650658,0.0780002055,0.0792368701,0.0859787221,0.0902616065,0.0896123899,0.0754502178,0.0815239103,0.119592083,0.0816199937,0.0813235213 -fred_qd_2025/cee,0.13493629,0.1178834587,0.1230588675,0.1203868337,0.1193291423884141,0.1212280711,0.1205702322,0.13478856788472,0.1290291476,0.1333583074646012,0.1455614395,0.1191207889,0.1108418954,0.1246971363,0.1271824648,0.1238446163,0.199311753,0.1631968012,0.2178025348,0.1373877838,0.2240148661,0.1474873423,0.1851033107,0.1863665626,0.1365938852,0.1482369083,0.1941921549,0.1537726617,0.1492650929 -fred_qd_2025/macro,0.0877492891,0.0819398403,0.0813262848,0.0821352866,0.0819940181024104,0.0823549396,0.0847291191,0.0918962174469524,0.0852353396,0.085237494,0.0904632042,0.0897443934,0.0835998942,0.0857005368,0.0863520335,0.0870314598,0.1224400202,0.1012011908,0.1143069694,0.0918310561,0.1040481161,0.0955504799,0.1081842347,0.1087879793,0.0949233782,0.0954220424,0.1198022216,0.0963745296,0.0950284899 -gvar,0.0149820687,0.0145238675,0.0144267612,0.0146124185,0.0144489400974888,0.0146511705,0.0150792847,0.0155006620792276,0.0152665936,0.0148827469289249,0.0149023625,0.0164066749,0.014902948,0.0149922867,0.015061142,0.015482776,0.0192650378,0.0185296964,0.0168077777,0.0162937715,0.0163818337,0.0169170494,0.0180220621,0.0178566904,0.0159433726,0.0166324554,0.0212211567,0.0176762713,0.0174836229 -hermes,0.00225818,0.0023445304,0.0023507897,0.0023660122,0.0025064943975988,0.0024907526,0.0024187939,0.0023043540524169,0.0022928048,0.002408262,0.0023074145,0.0023893872,0.00361165,0.0027401694,0.0026712263,0.0025240351,0.0032054229,0.0031453384,0.0035223817,0.0061269214,0.0045975711,0.0050407278,0.0045409315,0.0045605713,0.0073879456,0.0068258834,0.0087083111,0.0087083111,0.0090940295 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5714809959,0.5676590461000001,0.5619234998,0.5668575799000001,0.5620525201765236,0.5704484356,0.5556084899,0.5679830350408462,0.5615462266,0.5676603822116071,0.5696128289,0.593064982,0.5601555502000001,0.5651435622000001,0.5634020932,0.5634020932,0.5745797836000001,0.647815962,0.5754783046,0.8177303568000001,0.5825354928,0.6915383975,0.9140827947,0.6910062183,0.9358165943,0.9689367576,1.1222145629,1.6764214745,1.6911406181 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.3648561995,0.3645064954,0.3651241862,0.3670778617,0.3701408011985547,0.3712940507,0.3675267984,0.370833974534256,0.36900549,0.3688751656463698,0.3665408623,0.3729757571,0.3702988275,0.3766578963,0.3762527696,0.3762527696,0.4016935991,0.4228486488,0.3873929843,0.465201591,0.3962245576,0.4672185483,0.4416683753,0.4443902803,7.827597326,0.4883602497,0.9260072924,0.9260072924,0.9465583798 -hospital,0.0748078224,0.0721816897,0.0722748026,0.0716670687,0.0716004242403598,0.0720618303,0.0726720337,0.0695284518782354,0.0714240645,0.073154992,0.0732403369,0.0744122446,0.0782417064,0.0751424692,0.075323756,0.075323756,0.0962332051,0.0900986355,0.0876369973,0.0749195627,0.0763542764,0.0845424144,0.1298282849,0.125397441,0.0759570393,0.0813819141,0.0783920641,0.1042062258,0.1105393325 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.4112482571,0.4110203098,0.4111777319,0.4112639343,0.4111663451111241,0.4113671478,0.4117757476,0.4111778841250772,0.4124642646,0.4126385362604453,0.4173749544,0.4170910343,0.4128087161,0.4114047438,0.4120897737,0.4125280896,0.4178139666,0.4526293478,0.4157163956,0.4131275601,0.4185439912,0.4121681665,0.5358010025000001,0.5356471103,0.4122712944,0.4263733393,0.6361459777,0.9837276528,0.9916738225 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.1624167729,0.1631238396,0.1630574141,0.1629510239,0.1630899295121846,0.1628616325,0.1647817223,0.1637294128599395,0.1632100947,0.1640475363842089,0.1652550692,0.1640290481,0.1685465774,0.1649940217,0.1651659257,0.1652841679,0.1638441779,0.1802484199,0.1672985953,0.1630497452,0.1730808569,0.1631143082,0.2980487663,0.3185996994,0.1628325575,0.1682700421,0.2969374562,0.2969374562,0.3078008058 -jena_weather_10T,0.2528507588,0.2179958325,0.2254821538,0.2109903321,0.2345376664505892,0.2058012416,0.2661828375,0.2249865452272112,0.2127668735,0.2598751866564842,0.2065601206,0.2673525155,0.2370029627,0.2186955544,0.2625552837,0.2625552837,0.2861270721,0.3371179261,0.249506229,2.0838172673,0.3312178723,1.1999625736,0.6868432012,2.3233309146,3.1495387185,3.5724878985,1.7057621919,3.6828586054,3.85529109 -jena_weather_1D,0.2257062563,0.2347111941,0.2351874789,0.2290670891,0.2217936613400121,0.2296760039,0.2210204491,0.2310330886224535,0.2185061968,0.2310045308327635,0.2192679771,0.2376748711,0.2243943728,0.2343058561,0.2254046561,0.2254046561,0.3380311951,0.2665635899,0.3253639756,0.3084284928,0.353442622,0.3017046195,0.4845484094,0.4935773805,0.3511726073,0.352949988,0.4719762387,0.6992484433,0.7361988020000001 -jena_weather_1H,0.2250019598,0.209700068,0.2042789585,0.2064620178,0.222315575214421,0.2150192859,0.2168159034,0.2207381037462216,0.2233014541,0.2213662473568811,0.2046475096,0.2369006949,0.2068558167,0.2257041757,0.2340991589,0.2340991589,0.2755533982,0.4350680693,0.2493529242,1.0549343053,0.2542087262,0.8256929906,0.4259697277,0.541001766,1.408450418,1.6859107035,1.2878361858,1.6601789319,1.6730314794 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,1.2012688912,1.2423053558,1.2928265833,1.2611561204,1.2868898999991945,1.3449398697,1.3753457154,1.672279038449243,1.3753457154,1.752141317044975,1.3753457154,2.4259698063,1.3753457154,1.2791393932,1.3753457154,1.3753457154,1.3596535498,1.3753457154,2.8127015346,2.3739032941,2.4486052091,2.4275642145000003,1.9401393917,2.2259673328,2.5986419336,2.5543058637,3.4658735195,2.676092095,2.9246115805 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.5599962195,0.5518483318,0.5548469306,0.5591092906,0.5579945436596108,0.5539245901000001,0.5566213231,0.5664458017834574,0.5527344226,0.5525175952572586,0.5781322911,0.5800627619000001,0.5565322541000001,0.5950165469,0.5630864115,0.5631888802,0.7276780822000001,0.6469029607,0.7320689666,0.592077645,0.735336376,0.5843812531,0.8453182764,0.8151955287,0.6089510673,0.5966451509,0.7506998103,0.9265198158,0.9484262949 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7bfdd27d70c3279d85491346442530a1c28328d6..0fb81c7f9146091cecb813b60a9156c52b538137 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL_baseline_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WQL_baseline_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,FlowState,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,Stat. 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a/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv index 97dbcbb36c655803a0866313189a27c00c4a0407..f94b0c2260de4855203c8b8eda744479cddd69e7 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,FlowState,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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a/tables/summaries.csv b/tables/summaries.csv index 7880d69692e748bfb0f3e24c376de14542f8ecd5..6b1f39b07b52f4d1a00a19f38dd43d925e146623 100644 --- a/tables/summaries.csv +++ b/tables/summaries.csv @@ -2884,3 +2884,103 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,toto-2.0,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE Toto-2.0-4m,toto-2.0,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.8843078325,0.0,1.383617871,1719.0,c78d3682201594d9,False,0.9.0,2.8843078325,3.4828209577,0.0939798025,0.077325167,,"{""model_path"": ""Datadog/Toto-2.0-4m"", ""batch_size"": 512}",357bc23,, Toto-2.0-4m,toto-2.0,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.2907503899,0.0,1.783268729,2370.0,f9ce571f4bf31401,False,0.9.0,1.2907503899,1.4976305861,0.0120766348,0.0104535037,,"{""model_path"": ""Datadog/Toto-2.0-4m"", ""batch_size"": 512}",357bc23,, Toto-2.0-4m,toto-2.0,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,2.8294267896000003,0.0,0.541937607,356.0,dcd8469c3acc4caa,False,0.9.0,2.8294267896000003,3.4946481692,0.0987637003,0.0688468732,,"{""model_path"": ""Datadog/Toto-2.0-4m"", ""batch_size"": 512}",357bc23,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.7328661074987709,0.0,4.904726421460509,110.0,70e6cce11b73757a,False,0.9.0,0.7328661074987709,0.91280261457888,0.0783844437578909,0.0627536054588804,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.4502707948003256,0.0,1.7262683752924204,20.0,87312edc76952605,False,0.9.0,0.4502707948003256,0.5657738659384771,0.0277235063668195,0.0220640779404208,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,0.5655143918316674,0.0,5.189846997149289,160.0,897258c227dde589,False,0.9.0,0.5655143918316674,0.7194819174894902,0.0468634895056364,0.0368392416232347,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.1701701936866156,0.0,62.626253499649465,4116.0,2c9ecdd477948cce,False,0.9.0,1.1701701936866156,1.4148215222634752,0.3872833200474859,0.3212884910754363,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.1227800299439084,0.0,1.5115655148401856,35.0,d4ccf61e0ac3ccdf,False,0.9.0,1.1227800299439084,1.354721144654833,0.0629737856048931,0.052330684682142,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 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'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.4810261951026669,0.0,1.3521002801135182,35.0,4eea90b920dec215,False,0.9.0,1.4810261951026669,1.7302951053572595,0.0572094020087183,0.0487585230906917,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.498154927366253,0.0,4.972371442243457,120.0,8facdab2c9ff5bd5,False,0.9.0,0.498154927366253,0.6384149767729699,0.0460907658038556,0.0353919091493609,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.4797481929620063,0.0,4.685220806859434,120.0,98ab81cde986fe22,False,0.9.0,0.4797481929620063,0.5958136976133336,0.0414606003733736,0.0331659552762197,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.4391925570563407,0.0,4.6384184919297695,120.0,c1b23331fc6093bc,False,0.9.0,0.4391925570563407,0.5433724280115052,0.0343543238941966,0.0278706109218268,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,0.47612231026766,0.0,1.8861042130738497,20.0,2b9df413e5ec356e,False,0.9.0,0.47612231026766,0.6012395475782755,0.1079638211727417,0.0854822184520839,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,0.5904124975299979,0.0,1.89260605443269,20.0,bc6dede7cf6a507b,False,0.9.0,0.5904124975299979,0.7074737950289537,0.3150308331165831,0.2783999762304116,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load 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'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,0.7323603075056278,0.0,18.43645176198333,560.0,5bbc9fb121124724,False,0.9.0,0.7323603075056278,0.8413571943797802,0.3972473934158851,0.3319885885326104,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,4.4727234111333,0.0,2.4412217680364847,60.0,74fe4767146a4d96,False,0.9.0,4.4727234111333,5.672670471901022,0.0917156770819314,0.0778836800870543,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,2.156497162098414,0.0,3.486545001156628,60.0,d4ca154cc310644e,False,0.9.0,2.156497162098414,2.494045433518722,0.1525211338018178,0.1233043186361284,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,5.627031401253796,0.0,12.446436036378143,1020.0,74fe4767146a4d96,False,0.9.0,5.627031401253796,6.756731382942578,0.0827910626340029,0.0679208799057953,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,3.616400600187479,0.0,12.448053354397416,1020.0,d4ca154cc310644e,False,0.9.0,3.616400600187479,4.2198076231030734,0.1056159168648135,0.0864807339810937,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.4223460900667164,0.0,2.640568770468235,310.0,dee11a908eddc948,False,0.9.0,1.4223460900667164,1.7246135774070008,0.0255517988909616,0.0212965915762865,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,1.678338614888315,0.0,2.1172748412936926,310.0,05aa7957a46336f0,False,0.9.0,1.678338614888315,2.0570931919543014,0.0334064815209597,0.0278797408132248,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,5.001748524953016,0.0,2.1477893367409706,310.0,34316f35c64781aa,False,0.9.0,5.001748524953016,6.183917002135702,0.1255251139800097,0.0959619033446069,,{},,, +TS-ICL,ts-icl,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.6471083428807352,0.0,4.821484073996544,1980.0,d404e6be8d6f82fd,False,0.9.0,0.6471083428807352,0.7552623325789686,0.0216035041961236,0.0174768526080282,,{},,, diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_MASE.csv index a2476cc8474b121ba201bb57bc6129715289998a..c65f861f44e15d5e887fdc5820f2250655ec0f23 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.0986394557823,37.85799069972645,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,80.95238095238095,35.77575884246357,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,70.06802721088435,29.050115763331195,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,69.38775510204084,34.106843589937796,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,69.21768707482993,29.325569671639194,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,68.11224489795917,28.75756667123792,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.85884353741498,33.645363857682895,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TiRex,64.79591836734694,28.470636641084333,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.20068027210884,27.784643347991,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 -citras-fm,62.585034013605444,29.54497604021703,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,62.0748299319728,27.746780910077852,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,61.98979591836734,27.18964779800085,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.8469387755102,27.011208854073608,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -CatBoost,53.31632653061226,27.450740665065144,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,50.85034013605443,26.138069870715697,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.68027210884354,25.062514275946356,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,50.34013605442177,25.633108331049936,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,48.724489795918366,25.059586999925887,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.217687074829925,23.050755938875334,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,41.964285714285715,17.07188261534265,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TFT,36.73469387755101,16.610547189801082,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,33.248299319727884,13.580115395669367,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,30.27210884353741,11.019039468741898,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,30.27210884353741,14.551541760519592,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 -AutoETS,28.8265306122449,-6.726032194167697,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,24.277210884353742,7.194406163199618,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 -Seasonal Naive,18.87755102040816,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 -Naive,15.603741496598635,-18.492832604363784,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,13.605442176870747,-17.92857450946139,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.99014778325122,37.85799069972645,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.70607553366173,35.77575884246357,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,69.45812807881772,29.050115763331195,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,69.1297208538588,34.106843589937796,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,68.7192118226601,29.325569671639194,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,67.816091954023,28.75756667123792,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.47619047619048,33.645363857682895,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TS-ICL,64.69622331691298,32.64556461381777,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.20361247947454,28.470636641084333,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.793103448275865,27.784643347991,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 +citras-fm,61.98686371100165,29.54497604021703,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.57635467980296,27.746780910077852,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,61.24794745484401,27.18964779800085,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.10509031198687,27.011208854073608,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +CatBoost,52.545155993431855,27.450740665065144,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,50.082101806239756,26.138069870715697,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,49.91789819376026,25.062514275946356,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,49.75369458128078,25.633108331049936,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.111658456486026,25.059586999925887,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.596059113300484,23.050755938875334,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,41.33825944170771,17.07188261534265,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TFT,36.124794745484394,16.610547189801082,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,32.59441707717569,13.580115395669367,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,29.802955665024623,11.019039468741898,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,29.720853858784885,14.551541760519592,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 +AutoETS,28.48932676518884,-6.726032194167697,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,23.76847290640394,7.194406163199618,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 +Seasonal Naive,18.472906403940883,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 +Naive,15.311986863710997,-18.492832604363784,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,13.464696223316913,-17.92857450946139,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_SQL.csv index b840936e0658b048ae0f4c50b0f44f2d84eb5d26..98e3803e09db52f12f79c31f13e539697c11888a 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.09523809523812,47.03439239650638,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,84.52380952380952,44.82001047659605,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,72.9591836734694,38.67793124651509,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.7891156462585,38.77117816788853,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,72.53401360544217,38.89265863808164,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.83333333333334,43.34821010942925,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,70.74829931972788,38.74850022403288,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,69.68537414965986,42.46951390177763,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 -citras-fm,68.53741496598639,38.982750213675665,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.17687074829931,37.356310446995735,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.7312925170068,37.59770290848886,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,65.39115646258502,36.65564931062223,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.18367346938776,36.59258743049962,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.05782312925171,35.87139576468958,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.952380952380956,35.17359783525491,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,55.18707482993197,35.40744128959241,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 -TFT,41.156462585034014,25.24922731698379,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.180272108843525,27.96144140268967,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,37.03231292517006,21.00789975438786,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 -PatchTST,33.97108843537414,21.575077599958682,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,32.18537414965986,22.083135288368496,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 -CatBoost,31.037414965986386,23.128137800086222,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,28.57142857142857,21.737255944887302,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.358843537414963,15.177379671415093,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 -AutoETS,26.445578231292515,-25.161340235868156,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.25510204081632,8.37504381956522,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.583333333333332,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.778911564625847,-33.03620398638194,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.057823129251699,-31.75596044124429,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,87.76683087027915,47.03439239650638,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,84.15435139573071,44.82001047659605,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.2495894909688,38.77117816788853,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,72.16748768472907,38.67793124651509,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,71.92118226600985,38.89265863808164,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,70.44334975369459,43.34821010942925,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,70.03284072249589,38.74850022403288,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,69.29392446633827,41.92781577536778,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,69.00656814449918,42.46951390177763,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 +citras-fm,67.89819376026273,38.982750213675665,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.42036124794744,37.356310446995735,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.86042692939245,37.59770290848886,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,64.61412151067323,36.65564931062223,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,58.29228243021348,36.59258743049962,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,55.993431855500816,35.87139576468958,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.59770114942528,35.17359783525491,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,54.351395730706066,35.40744128959241,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 +TFT,40.39408866995073,25.24922731698379,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.35632183908045,27.96144140268967,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.330049261083744,21.00789975438786,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 +PatchTST,33.12807881773397,21.575077599958682,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,31.4039408866995,22.083135288368496,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 +CatBoost,30.21346469622331,23.128137800086222,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,27.996715927750405,21.737255944887302,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,27.62725779967159,15.177379671415093,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 +AutoETS,26.190476190476186,-25.161340235868156,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.79474548440065,8.37504381956522,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.080459770114942,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.441707717569784,-33.03620398638194,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.978653530377667,-31.75596044124429,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 1e11ffd73acd6984f84609679c18c3f5795602ee..6b6ea8e24e7bda03d0837838be75ab91d0c46812 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,81.71768707482993,39.97910055229871,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.93537414965986,36.44906387690696,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,74.65986394557824,32.1259584298953,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,72.44897959183675,37.24548801189469,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,71.76870748299321,31.798726646474805,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,71.00340136054422,31.547170325205375,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,69.68537414965988,36.035457638526424,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TiRex,64.54081632653059,30.37469958526301,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,62.244897959183675,29.478887305815647,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,62.15986394557822,29.777759860762497,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,61.98979591836735,30.883856972819935,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,58.41836734693878,28.91770981196896,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.8469387755102,28.783939901885137,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -LightGBM,52.12585034013606,28.026675823648763,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,52.04081632653062,27.596357187205513,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.4251700680272,26.4221714932126,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,48.894557823129254,26.172791737408396,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,45.83333333333333,25.500630381090716,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,45.323129251700685,24.560922790508542,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,40.60374149659863,18.65248010325733,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TFT,37.84013605442177,17.55129235888411,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,30.86734693877551,12.082418084936153,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,29.59183673469388,-2.7290136569638745,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,28.146258503401366,14.30320734363062,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 -AutoTheta,27.551020408163257,12.238855032317774,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,25.467687074829932,11.608332472472217,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 -Naive,21.30102040816326,-9.55304348683621,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.41156462585034,-11.985879428309133,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.156462585034006,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.44499178981938,39.97910055229871,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.77996715927753,36.44906387690696,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,74.05582922824301,32.1259584298953,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,72.16748768472907,37.24548801189469,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,71.34646962233168,31.798726646474805,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,70.52545155993431,31.547170325205375,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,69.33497536945814,36.035457638526424,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TS-ICL,65.02463054187191,34.85796644407271,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.20361247947453,30.37469958526301,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.74055829228243,29.777759860762497,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,61.6584564860427,29.478887305815647,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 +citras-fm,61.247947454844024,30.883856972819935,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,57.88177339901478,28.91770981196896,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.10509031198686,28.783939901885137,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +LightGBM,51.39573070607554,28.026675823648763,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,51.313628899835805,27.596357187205513,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,49.50738916256157,26.4221714932126,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.440065681444985,26.172791737408396,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,45.15599343185549,25.500630381090716,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,44.4991789819376,24.560922790508542,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,39.86042692939243,18.65248010325733,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TFT,37.35632183908045,17.55129235888411,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,30.459770114942526,12.082418084936153,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,29.22824302134646,-2.7290136569638745,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,27.668308702791467,14.30320734363062,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 +AutoTheta,27.011494252873565,12.238855032317774,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,24.835796387520524,11.608332472472217,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 +Naive,20.894909688013133,-9.55304348683621,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,16.17405582922824,-11.985879428309133,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.681444991789817,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WQL.csv index a870f74c43cc91f85020402826b7e3729e09d490..da3bf77b0e705da2a3b9c94130be4d1c202f8573 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.20408163265304,50.25077498745439,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,79.16666666666667,47.404276614852094,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,76.02040816326533,47.84852116161721,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.02040816326532,43.86639294767475,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.80952380952381,43.37032468187005,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,73.8095238095238,43.447102168825424,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,72.23639455782312,46.57775946986645,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TiRex,69.5578231292517,42.05271803405567,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -citras-fm,68.45238095238095,42.60571242539149,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.73129251700679,41.7421059135865,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.5612244897959,41.339265283988716,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 -FlowState,63.6904761904762,40.63664377134849,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,61.224489795918366,40.57999071515723,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,56.4625850340136,38.93740380330451,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.86734693877551,38.88016049043232,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.12585034013604,38.1771523471722,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,40.90136054421768,32.41302088995285,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -TFT,39.795918367346935,27.0102097648108,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.01190476190475,23.762019047847925,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 -LightGBM,33.58843537414965,26.455638284100015,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,32.86564625850338,23.070595231883427,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,32.52551020408162,24.509565155499104,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 -CatBoost,31.972789115646243,26.015926682282032,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,27.848639455782315,20.163225583931876,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 -AutoETS,24.489795918367346,-22.25262533609125,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.72448979591836,10.95860098159448,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.81802721088435,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.544217687074827,-27.38359153519554,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.972789115646257,-29.07226056551304,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,84.89326765188835,50.25077498745439,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,78.8177339901478,47.404276614852094,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,75.77996715927753,47.84852116161721,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,75.36945812807882,43.86639294767475,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.15270935960592,43.37032468187005,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.07060755336616,43.447102168825424,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,71.79802955665025,46.57775946986645,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TiRex,69.2118226600985,42.05271803405567,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +TS-ICL,68.06239737274218,46.0030292862884,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,67.65188834154353,42.60571242539149,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,65.10673234811163,41.7421059135865,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,64.86042692939243,41.339265283988716,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 +FlowState,62.889983579638766,40.63664377134849,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,60.426929392446624,40.57999071515723,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,55.58292282430213,38.93740380330451,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.8440065681445,38.88016049043232,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.14942528735631,38.1771523471722,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,39.983579638752055,32.41302088995285,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +TFT,38.99835796387519,27.0102097648108,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,35.34482758620688,23.762019047847925,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 +LightGBM,32.676518883415426,26.455638284100015,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,32.3070607553366,23.070595231883427,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,31.81444991789818,24.509565155499104,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 +CatBoost,30.952380952380942,26.015926682282032,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,27.134646962233166,20.163225583931876,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 +AutoETS,24.384236453201964,-22.25262533609125,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.23481116584564,10.95860098159448,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.423645320197043,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.262725779967157,-27.38359153519554,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.814449917898193,-29.07226056551304,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_MASE.csv index c7bc8a5a4460d6e1a412a29cdef7fa67391b1264..ab0a606794a5cc0e2d3efeafb456493b68a770b9 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -4,8 +4,9 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.032,-0.006,0.071 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.643,0.5,0.762,0.057,0.017,0.096 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.124,0.076,0.181 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.121,0.075,0.176 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.063,0.018,0.113 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.128,0.078,0.188 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.063,0.018,0.113 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.077,0.041,0.115 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.139,0.085,0.202 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.131,0.081,0.191 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.118,0.077,0.161 @@ -13,7 +14,6 @@ Chronos-2,FlowState,0.857,0.761,0.952,0.147,0.098,0.205 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.14,0.091,0.195 Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.143,0.087,0.197 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.149,0.097,0.202 -Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.159,0.101,0.213 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.164,0.12,0.216 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.379,0.315,0.439 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.034,-0.076,0.006 @@ -21,8 +21,9 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.619,0.452,0.762,0.025,-0.027,0.077 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.095,0.046,0.152 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.091,0.041,0.147 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.032,-0.015,0.076 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.69,0.548,0.81,0.099,0.049,0.158 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.032,-0.015,0.076 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.738,0.619,0.857,0.046,0.002,0.087 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.111,0.056,0.17 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.102,0.058,0.155 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.088,0.051,0.128 @@ -30,7 +31,6 @@ TiRex-2,FlowState,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.118,0.065,0.177 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.111,0.066,0.163 TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.115,0.061,0.167 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.762,0.952,0.12,0.075,0.173 -TiRex-2,LightGBM,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.13,0.077,0.185 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.136,0.09,0.188 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.358,0.293,0.426 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.357,0.238,0.5,-0.06,-0.107,-0.017 @@ -38,8 +38,9 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.381,0.238,0.548,-0.026,-0.083,0.027 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.071,0.002,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.068,-0.001,0.144 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.007,-0.035,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.075,0.005,0.155 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.007,-0.035,0.049 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.022,-0.029,0.075 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.088,0.014,0.168 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.079,0.013,0.155 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.065,0.009,0.126 @@ -47,7 +48,6 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.095,0.029,0.171 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.088,0.019,0.164 TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.714,0.595,0.833,0.092,0.025,0.153 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.097,0.029,0.173 -TabPFN-TS-3,LightGBM,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.108,0.033,0.173 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.114,0.053,0.186 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.341,0.274,0.409 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.142,-0.221,-0.083 @@ -55,8 +55,9 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.105,-0.179,-0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.077,-0.175,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.429,0.738,-0.004,-0.015,0.006 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.31,0.619,-0.069,-0.164,0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.004,-0.007,0.018 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.31,0.619,-0.069,-0.164,0.011 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.524,0.357,0.667,-0.053,-0.133,0.006 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.018,-0.016,0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.008,-0.025,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.007,-0.054,0.034 @@ -64,7 +65,6 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.026,-0.008,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.018,0.001,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.022,-0.051,0.088 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.028,-0.008,0.061 -Toto-2.0-1B,LightGBM,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.039,-0.027,0.102 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.046,0.017,0.076 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.291,0.227,0.358 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.137,-0.213,-0.081 @@ -72,8 +72,9 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.1,-0.172,-0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.073,-0.169,0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.262,0.571,0.004,-0.006,0.015 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.065,-0.158,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.008,-0.008,0.024 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.065,-0.158,0.012 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.049,-0.125,0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.021,-0.014,0.051 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.012,-0.016,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.003,-0.048,0.036 @@ -81,33 +82,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.029,-0.006,0.064 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.022,0.006,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.026,-0.046,0.091 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.032,-0.004,0.065 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,LightGBM,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.043,-0.023,0.103 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.05,0.021,0.078 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.293,0.229,0.361 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.068,-0.127,-0.018 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.033,-0.082,0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.007,-0.051,0.033 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.524,0.381,0.69,0.065,-0.011,0.141 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.061,-0.012,0.137 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.069,-0.007,0.148 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.081,0.008,0.159 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.072,0.008,0.143 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.058,0.004,0.112 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.548,0.381,0.69,0.089,0.019,0.16 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.404,0.69,0.082,0.009,0.153 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.667,0.524,0.786,0.085,0.021,0.143 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.091,0.022,0.162 -TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.102,0.043,0.159 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.108,0.042,0.176 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.964,0.905,1.0,0.336,0.257,0.408 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.146,-0.231,-0.084 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.109,-0.188,-0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.081,-0.183,-0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.004,-0.018,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.008,-0.025,0.008 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.074,-0.173,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.074,-0.173,0.007 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.738,-0.058,-0.141,0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.013,-0.016,0.04 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.004,-0.029,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,-0.011,-0.062,0.03 @@ -115,16 +99,50 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.022,-0.012,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.69,0.547,0.833,0.014,-0.003,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.018,-0.057,0.084 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.024,-0.012,0.055 -Toto-2.0-313m,LightGBM,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.035,-0.033,0.099 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.619,0.905,0.042,0.009,0.072 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.288,0.22,0.357 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.068,-0.127,-0.018 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.033,-0.082,0.015 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.007,-0.051,0.033 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.524,0.381,0.69,0.065,-0.011,0.141 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.061,-0.012,0.137 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.069,-0.007,0.148 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.015,-0.035,0.064 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.081,0.008,0.159 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.072,0.008,0.143 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.058,0.004,0.112 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.548,0.381,0.69,0.089,0.019,0.16 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.404,0.69,0.082,0.009,0.153 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.667,0.524,0.786,0.085,0.021,0.143 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.091,0.022,0.162 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.108,0.042,0.176 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.964,0.905,1.0,0.336,0.257,0.408 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.084,-0.13,-0.043 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.262,0.143,0.381,-0.049,-0.095,-0.002 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.022,-0.081,0.029 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.643,0.051,-0.006,0.117 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.047,-0.01,0.112 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.405,0.262,0.548,0.055,-0.006,0.123 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.015,-0.069,0.034 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.067,0.009,0.132 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.058,0.002,0.121 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.044,-0.004,0.099 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.762,0.075,0.017,0.143 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.068,0.013,0.13 +TS-ICL,CatBoost,0.69,0.571,0.833,0.072,0.016,0.128 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.548,0.81,0.077,0.021,0.136 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.094,0.038,0.154 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.326,0.249,0.393 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.162,-0.254,-0.093 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.124,-0.205,-0.06 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.096,-0.202,-0.014 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.018,-0.052,0.015 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.022,-0.054,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.088,-0.19,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.014,-0.042,0.015 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.088,-0.19,-0.008 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.072,-0.152,-0.009 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.512,0.369,0.667,-0.01,-0.04,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.025,-0.078,0.022 @@ -132,7 +150,6 @@ TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.536,0.381,0.667,0.008,-0.021,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.001,-0.033,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.005,-0.062,0.068 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.607,0.476,0.75,0.011,-0.018,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.022,-0.04,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.679,0.559,0.81,0.029,0.005,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.278,0.215,0.344 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.151,-0.236,-0.088 @@ -140,8 +157,9 @@ TiRex,TiRex-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.114,-0.184,-0.062 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.086,-0.183,-0.014 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.008,-0.04,0.025 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.012,-0.041,0.016 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.078,-0.168,-0.009 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.004,-0.032,0.029 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.078,-0.168,-0.009 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.062,-0.138,-0.002 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.488,0.333,0.631,0.009,-0.021,0.038 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,citras-fm,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.015,-0.056,0.017 @@ -149,7 +167,6 @@ TiRex,FlowState,0.464,0.321,0.607,0.018,-0.012,0.05 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.01,-0.017,0.036 TiRex,CatBoost,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.014,-0.051,0.074 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.607,0.452,0.738,0.02,-0.005,0.045 -TiRex,LightGBM,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.032,-0.027,0.086 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.726,0.595,0.857,0.038,0.013,0.063 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.285,0.219,0.35 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.134,-0.192,-0.083 @@ -157,8 +174,9 @@ citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.097,-0.147,-0.054 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.069,-0.144,-0.009 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.007,-0.035,0.051 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.003,-0.038,0.046 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.062,-0.126,-0.004 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.405,0.262,0.548,0.011,-0.031,0.058 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.062,-0.126,-0.004 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.046,-0.109,0.004 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.024,-0.023,0.072 citras-fm,TiRex,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.015,-0.017,0.053 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -166,7 +184,6 @@ citras-fm,FlowState,0.5,0.333,0.643,0.032,-0.014,0.083 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.025,-0.013,0.066 citras-fm,CatBoost,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.029,-0.034,0.086 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.571,0.833,0.035,-0.005,0.073 -citras-fm,LightGBM,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.046,-0.011,0.102 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.738,0.619,0.857,0.053,0.015,0.092 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.295,0.225,0.364 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.239,-0.172,-0.258,-0.108 @@ -174,8 +191,9 @@ FlowState,TiRex-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.134,-0.215,-0.069 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.105,-0.207,-0.03 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.026,-0.063,0.008 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.03,-0.069,0.006 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.452,0.31,0.619,-0.097,-0.191,-0.02 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.022,-0.062,0.012 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.452,0.31,0.619,-0.097,-0.191,-0.02 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.405,0.238,0.548,-0.081,-0.166,-0.017 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.464,0.333,0.619,-0.008,-0.046,0.021 FlowState,TiRex,0.536,0.393,0.679,-0.018,-0.052,0.012 FlowState,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.667,-0.033,-0.091,0.014 @@ -183,7 +201,6 @@ FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.008,-0.052,0.029 FlowState,CatBoost,0.524,0.381,0.69,-0.004,-0.074,0.063 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.488,0.357,0.631,0.002,-0.033,0.035 -FlowState,LightGBM,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.014,-0.058,0.08 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.631,0.5,0.774,0.021,-0.007,0.048 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.857,1.0,0.272,0.22,0.327 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.163,-0.242,-0.1 @@ -191,8 +208,9 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.125,-0.195,-0.071 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.097,-0.196,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.018,-0.034,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.022,-0.038,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.452,0.31,0.596,-0.089,-0.181,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.31,0.167,0.453,-0.014,-0.029,0.003 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.452,0.31,0.596,-0.089,-0.181,-0.009 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.073,-0.149,-0.013 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.001,-0.035,0.032 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.01,-0.038,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.026,-0.071,0.012 @@ -200,7 +218,6 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.008,-0.03,0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.004,-0.067,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.01,-0.023,0.044 -Toto-2.0-22m,LightGBM,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.022,-0.043,0.08 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.028,-0.002,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.277,0.209,0.352 CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.167,-0.245,-0.095 @@ -208,8 +225,9 @@ CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.13,-0.201,-0.064 CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.167,0.405,-0.101,-0.18,-0.026 CatBoost,Toto-2.0-1B,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.023,-0.097,0.049 CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.027,-0.1,0.044 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.214,0.476,-0.093,-0.168,-0.022 CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.018,-0.091,0.054 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.214,0.476,-0.093,-0.168,-0.022 +CatBoost,TS-ICL,0.31,0.167,0.429,-0.077,-0.146,-0.016 CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.005,-0.073,0.058 CatBoost,TiRex,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.014,-0.079,0.049 CatBoost,citras-fm,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.03,-0.094,0.033 @@ -217,7 +235,6 @@ CatBoost,FlowState,0.476,0.31,0.619,0.004,-0.067,0.069 CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.004,-0.07,0.063 CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.006,-0.054,0.064 -CatBoost,LightGBM,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.018,-0.011,0.046 CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.024,-0.041,0.083 CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.275,0.204,0.349 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.175,-0.253,-0.107 @@ -225,8 +242,9 @@ Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.143,0.048,0.238,-0.136,-0.209,-0.082 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.108,-0.209,-0.03 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.029,-0.065,0.008 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.033,-0.069,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.1,-0.193,-0.022 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.025,-0.059,0.012 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.1,-0.193,-0.022 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.333,0.19,0.452,-0.084,-0.157,-0.021 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.393,0.25,0.524,-0.011,-0.04,0.018 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.393,0.262,0.548,-0.02,-0.047,0.005 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.31,0.167,0.429,-0.036,-0.079,0.005 @@ -234,33 +252,16 @@ Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.512,0.369,0.643,-0.002,-0.037,0.032 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.01,-0.046,0.022 Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.006,-0.068,0.051 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.012,-0.049,0.068 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.607,0.476,0.738,0.019,-0.004,0.04 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.738,0.929,0.27,0.204,0.339 -LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.189,-0.27,-0.112 -LightGBM,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.15,-0.227,-0.084 -LightGBM,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.121,-0.21,-0.034 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-1B,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.041,-0.113,0.027 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.045,-0.115,0.023 -LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.113,-0.189,-0.044 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-313m,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.037,-0.11,0.031 -LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.023,-0.091,0.039 -LightGBM,TiRex,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.033,-0.094,0.026 -LightGBM,citras-fm,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.048,-0.114,0.011 -LightGBM,FlowState,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.014,-0.087,0.055 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-22m,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.022,-0.087,0.041 -LightGBM,CatBoost,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.018,-0.048,0.011 -LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.012,-0.073,0.047 -LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.007,-0.054,0.066 -LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.261,0.187,0.338 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.197,-0.276,-0.136 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.158,-0.231,-0.099 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.129,-0.229,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.048,-0.082,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.052,-0.085,-0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.121,-0.213,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.238,0.095,0.381,-0.044,-0.078,-0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.121,-0.213,-0.044 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.104,-0.182,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.321,0.19,0.441,-0.03,-0.058,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.274,0.143,0.405,-0.04,-0.067,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.262,0.143,0.381,-0.056,-0.101,-0.015 @@ -268,7 +269,6 @@ Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.369,0.226,0.5,-0.021,-0.05,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.029,-0.065,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.025,-0.091,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.393,0.262,0.524,-0.019,-0.042,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.007,-0.071,0.052 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.256,0.196,0.316 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.609,-0.784,-0.46 @@ -276,8 +276,9 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.557,-0.741,-0.415 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.518,-0.692,-0.378 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.409,-0.557,-0.294 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.415,-0.565,-0.296 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.036,0.0,0.095,-0.507,-0.689,-0.346 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.404,-0.555,-0.282 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.036,0.0,0.095,-0.507,-0.689,-0.346 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.485,-0.647,-0.332 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.385,-0.524,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.398,-0.539,-0.28 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.419,-0.574,-0.291 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.071,0.0,0.143,-0.373,-0.486,-0.282 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.384,-0.544,-0.264 Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.378,-0.536,-0.256 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.071,0.262,-0.37,-0.512,-0.256 -Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.354,-0.511,-0.23 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.345,-0.463,-0.244 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_SQL.csv index 5c140dc4879c29c36e271f1cf5171dc1dd4622ad..94f963d88c9dd127274585116daef62a4c5868f1 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.135,0.09,0.185 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.133,0.087,0.185 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.136,0.089,0.192 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.065,0.025,0.103 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.135,0.086,0.189 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.786,0.643,0.905,0.079,0.036,0.124 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.088,0.055,0.121 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.135,0.086,0.189 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.857,0.762,0.952,0.132,0.091,0.178 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.154,0.102,0.213 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.857,0.761,0.952,0.164,0.116,0.22 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.151,0.102,0.204 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.165,0.115,0.218 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.174,0.129,0.225 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.881,0.786,0.976,0.183,0.131,0.239 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.41,0.527 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.042,-0.084,-0.003 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -21,15 +21,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.099,0.049,0.154 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.097,0.049,0.153 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.1,0.055,0.154 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.026,-0.028,0.077 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.099,0.052,0.156 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.041,-0.008,0.089 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.738,0.595,0.858,0.05,0.008,0.089 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.099,0.052,0.156 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.096,0.059,0.133 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.119,0.067,0.178 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.129,0.079,0.185 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.116,0.07,0.169 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.13,0.084,0.179 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.14,0.097,0.189 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.149,0.102,0.201 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.388,0.508 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.156,-0.227,-0.099 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.11,-0.182,-0.052 @@ -37,15 +37,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.002,-0.017,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.002,-0.03,0.03 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.081,-0.176,-0.007 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.0,-0.019,0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.064,-0.157,0.014 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.054,-0.124,0.004 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.0,-0.019,0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.003,-0.051,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.023,-0.02,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.033,-0.009,0.073 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.019,-0.004,0.04 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.034,-0.005,0.068 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.642,0.881,0.045,0.008,0.079 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.055,0.018,0.093 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.388,0.32,0.454 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.154,-0.227,-0.095 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.107,-0.18,-0.052 @@ -53,15 +53,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.002,-0.012,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.004,-0.028,0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.079,-0.173,-0.007 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.002,-0.008,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.062,-0.153,0.017 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.548,0.381,0.69,-0.052,-0.127,0.004 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.002,-0.008,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.001,-0.049,0.037 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.025,-0.012,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.035,-0.001,0.071 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.021,0.002,0.04 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.036,-0.001,0.069 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.047,0.014,0.079 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.057,0.019,0.095 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.389,0.324,0.454 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.158,-0.238,-0.097 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.111,-0.181,-0.058 @@ -69,15 +69,15 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.002,-0.031,0.029 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.004,-0.033,0.027 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.595,0.452,0.738,-0.082,-0.178,-0.01 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.001,-0.027,0.024 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.066,-0.16,0.007 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.056,-0.128,0.002 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.001,-0.027,0.024 TiRex,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,-0.005,-0.044,0.026 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.655,0.512,0.798,0.021,-0.003,0.045 TiRex,FlowState,0.607,0.464,0.75,0.032,0.006,0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.017,-0.008,0.04 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.726,0.595,0.857,0.033,0.01,0.057 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.774,0.655,0.893,0.044,0.023,0.066 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.774,0.655,0.905,0.054,0.024,0.09 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.325,0.448 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.07,-0.115,-0.025 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.027,-0.084,0.027 @@ -85,63 +85,79 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.075,0.007,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.073,0.007,0.148 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.405,0.262,0.548,0.076,0.01,0.151 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.075,0.006,0.154 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.405,0.714,0.015,-0.027,0.062 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.024,-0.024,0.073 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.075,0.006,0.154 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.072,0.014,0.133 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.096,0.026,0.172 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.106,0.042,0.182 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.092,0.022,0.166 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.107,0.04,0.18 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.117,0.055,0.187 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.126,0.057,0.2 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.368,0.495 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.156,-0.233,-0.095 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.11,-0.185,-0.055 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.0,-0.018,0.019 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.002,-0.013,0.008 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.001,-0.025,0.026 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.081,-0.181,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.065,-0.163,0.016 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.524,0.357,0.667,-0.004,-0.052,0.034 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.022,-0.011,0.055 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.033,-0.001,0.072 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.881,0.018,0.003,0.033 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.034,0.0,0.064 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.045,0.014,0.076 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.055,0.018,0.092 -Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.321,0.452 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.357,-0.086,-0.142,-0.037 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.043,-0.098,0.008 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.06,-0.014,0.136 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.059,-0.017,0.133 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.062,-0.007,0.138 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.286,0.595,-0.016,-0.067,0.026 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.061,-0.016,0.14 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.009,-0.046,0.058 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.061,-0.016,0.14 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.057,-0.001,0.114 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.082,0.008,0.157 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.092,0.022,0.164 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.078,0.005,0.152 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.093,0.022,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.103,0.037,0.17 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.113,0.041,0.187 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.964,0.905,1.0,0.425,0.354,0.49 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.096,-0.138,-0.058 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.262,0.142,0.405,-0.052,-0.097,-0.008 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.052,-0.004,0.111 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.619,0.05,-0.005,0.113 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.053,-0.002,0.114 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.025,-0.078,0.024 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.009,-0.062,0.044 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.052,-0.003,0.116 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.048,0.001,0.101 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.073,0.017,0.137 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.429,0.738,0.083,0.026,0.15 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.069,0.018,0.13 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.084,0.031,0.142 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.738,0.619,0.857,0.094,0.041,0.151 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.351,0.482 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.156,-0.233,-0.095 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.11,-0.185,-0.055 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.0,-0.018,0.019 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.002,-0.013,0.008 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.001,-0.025,0.026 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.081,-0.181,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.065,-0.163,0.016 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.055,-0.131,0.003 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.524,0.357,0.667,-0.004,-0.052,0.034 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.022,-0.011,0.055 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.033,-0.001,0.072 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.881,0.018,0.003,0.033 +Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.034,0.0,0.064 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.045,0.014,0.076 +Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.321,0.452 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.238,-0.152,-0.217,-0.1 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.106,-0.154,-0.063 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.003,-0.037,0.048 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.001,-0.038,0.047 citras-fm,TiRex,0.405,0.262,0.548,0.005,-0.027,0.042 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.077,-0.154,-0.014 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.643,0.004,-0.035,0.049 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.061,-0.128,0.001 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.051,-0.112,-0.001 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.643,0.004,-0.035,0.049 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.357,0.667,0.026,-0.019,0.073 citras-fm,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.037,-0.01,0.088 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.022,-0.01,0.061 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.571,0.81,0.038,-0.0,0.074 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.049,0.011,0.086 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.059,0.022,0.102 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.39,0.323,0.454 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.183,-0.271,-0.114 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.135,-0.217,-0.072 @@ -149,15 +165,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.023,-0.064,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.025,-0.063,0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.345,0.202,0.488,-0.022,-0.047,0.003 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.106,-0.207,-0.027 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.023,-0.058,0.011 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.089,-0.186,-0.008 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.079,-0.158,-0.018 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.023,-0.058,0.011 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.476,0.333,0.643,-0.027,-0.078,0.018 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.488,0.345,0.619,0.011,-0.017,0.043 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.004,-0.039,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.679,0.548,0.81,0.012,-0.016,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.655,0.524,0.774,0.023,0.002,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.631,0.5,0.774,0.034,-0.006,0.076 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.309,0.436 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.239,-0.196,-0.281,-0.132 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.148,-0.228,-0.086 @@ -165,15 +181,15 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.035,-0.079,0.009 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.037,-0.076,0.001 FlowState,TiRex,0.393,0.25,0.536,-0.033,-0.064,-0.006 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.118,-0.222,-0.043 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.034,-0.078,0.001 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.101,-0.196,-0.023 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.262,0.571,-0.091,-0.176,-0.027 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.034,-0.078,0.001 FlowState,citras-fm,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.038,-0.096,0.01 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.512,0.381,0.655,-0.011,-0.045,0.017 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.015,-0.058,0.022 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.536,0.404,0.667,0.001,-0.037,0.037 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.607,0.476,0.75,0.012,-0.017,0.041 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.452,0.714,0.023,-0.024,0.068 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.311,0.425 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.178,-0.257,-0.113 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.131,-0.203,-0.076 @@ -181,15 +197,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.019,-0.042,0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.021,-0.041,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.018,-0.042,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.102,-0.199,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.262,0.119,0.405,-0.019,-0.034,-0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.085,-0.18,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.075,-0.149,-0.018 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.262,0.119,0.405,-0.019,-0.034,-0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.023,-0.065,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.004,-0.032,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.015,-0.023,0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.016,-0.017,0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.027,-0.005,0.059 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.69,0.548,0.81,0.037,0.008,0.068 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.376,0.309,0.443 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.197,-0.278,-0.13 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.149,-0.218,-0.092 @@ -197,15 +213,15 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.036,-0.073,0.005 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.038,-0.074,0.001 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.274,0.143,0.405,-0.034,-0.061,-0.01 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.119,-0.22,-0.041 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.035,-0.069,-0.0 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.102,-0.195,-0.022 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.092,-0.166,-0.032 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.035,-0.069,-0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.31,0.19,0.429,-0.039,-0.08,0.0 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.321,0.19,0.452,-0.012,-0.04,0.016 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.464,0.333,0.596,-0.001,-0.038,0.036 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.016,-0.05,0.017 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.512,0.381,0.643,0.011,-0.008,0.031 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.536,0.405,0.69,0.022,-0.004,0.051 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.366,0.298,0.426 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.211,-0.291,-0.148 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.162,-0.233,-0.107 @@ -213,45 +229,29 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.238,0.119,0.358,-0.047,-0.086,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.049,-0.086,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.226,0.107,0.345,-0.046,-0.07,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.132,-0.23,-0.058 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.047,-0.082,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.115,-0.205,-0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.262,0.143,0.381,-0.104,-0.178,-0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.047,-0.082,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.051,-0.095,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.345,0.226,0.476,-0.024,-0.048,-0.002 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.393,0.25,0.524,-0.012,-0.043,0.017 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.028,-0.063,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.488,0.357,0.619,-0.011,-0.032,0.008 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.417,0.69,0.011,-0.021,0.049 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.359,0.294,0.417 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.119,0.024,0.214,-0.224,-0.314,-0.151 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.175,-0.252,-0.113 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.059,-0.103,-0.018 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.061,-0.105,-0.019 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.226,0.095,0.345,-0.057,-0.099,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.144,-0.249,-0.061 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.058,-0.101,-0.018 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.127,-0.229,-0.043 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.062,-0.114,-0.022 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.369,0.226,0.5,-0.035,-0.082,0.006 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.286,0.548,-0.023,-0.073,0.024 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.039,-0.074,-0.008 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.464,0.31,0.595,-0.022,-0.054,0.004 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.44,0.31,0.583,-0.011,-0.051,0.02 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.352,0.282,0.414 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.888,-1.112,-0.694 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.812,-1.033,-0.634 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.633,-0.83,-0.47 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.636,-0.831,-0.479 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.81,-0.482 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.765,-0.979,-0.583 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.633,-0.826,-0.474 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.036,0.0,0.095,-0.738,-0.962,-0.549 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.722,-0.929,-0.54 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.633,-0.826,-0.474 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.639,-0.83,-0.478 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.775,-0.448 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.74,-0.451 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.603,-0.795,-0.446 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.577,-0.744,-0.425 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.559,-0.715,-0.417 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.543,-0.708,-0.392 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WAPE.csv index b07a42cd16b8b78152920becdabac3839f0ee2a1..f47a7fe3e421af296ae5a3f1d829ddf70debb219 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.428,0.714,0.044,-0.003,0.086 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.12,0.071,0.18 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.062,0.012,0.12 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.123,0.071,0.185 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.079,0.037,0.119 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.81,0.667,0.929,0.138,0.088,0.197 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.132,0.091,0.177 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.149,0.09,0.214 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.145,0.096,0.205 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.156,0.095,0.212 -Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.171,0.12,0.224 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.157,0.103,0.212 Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.166,0.111,0.22 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.187,0.134,0.243 @@ -23,12 +23,12 @@ TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.013,-0.069,0.041 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.068,0.011,0.132 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.006,-0.056,0.066 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.429,0.738,0.072,0.014,0.137 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.595,0.834,0.024,-0.03,0.076 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.762,0.087,0.027,0.153 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.081,0.031,0.128 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.099,0.037,0.168 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.095,0.044,0.152 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.106,0.039,0.175 -TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.69,0.571,0.833,0.122,0.058,0.19 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.108,0.042,0.174 TiRex-2,LightGBM,0.738,0.619,0.858,0.117,0.05,0.183 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.139,0.079,0.205 @@ -40,12 +40,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.286,0.595,-0.082,-0.187,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.428,0.714,0.005,-0.008,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.381,0.69,-0.061,-0.156,0.025 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.008,-0.004,0.021 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.042,-0.133,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.025,-0.014,0.062 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.018,-0.033,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.524,0.786,0.038,-0.013,0.081 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.786,0.643,0.905,0.033,0.012,0.051 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.045,-0.012,0.099 -Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.063,-0.014,0.13 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.762,0.642,0.881,0.047,-0.007,0.094 Toto-2.0-1B,LightGBM,0.738,0.595,0.881,0.057,-0.019,0.126 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.081,0.032,0.13 @@ -57,12 +57,12 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.452,0.715,0.08,0.008,0.16 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.019,-0.027,0.065 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.083,0.006,0.164 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.037,-0.009,0.086 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.099,0.029,0.179 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.092,0.033,0.158 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.11,0.041,0.186 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.106,0.037,0.181 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.117,0.048,0.189 -TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.133,0.073,0.192 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.119,0.044,0.195 TabPFN-TS-3,LightGBM,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.128,0.059,0.194 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.15,0.086,0.224 @@ -74,12 +74,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.285,0.548,-0.087,-0.191,-0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.066,-0.158,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.004,-0.011,0.017 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.714,-0.047,-0.133,0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.02,-0.016,0.053 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.013,-0.033,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.033,-0.017,0.075 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.786,0.643,0.905,0.029,0.006,0.048 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.041,-0.016,0.091 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.058,-0.017,0.126 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.042,-0.008,0.088 Toto-2.0-2.5B,LightGBM,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.052,-0.018,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.881,0.786,0.976,0.076,0.031,0.122 @@ -91,12 +91,12 @@ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.019,-0.07,0.026 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.062,-0.018,0.137 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.066,-0.017,0.145 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.018,-0.039,0.073 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.081,0.001,0.158 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.075,0.009,0.137 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.093,0.015,0.169 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.089,0.014,0.162 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.69,0.548,0.81,0.1,0.018,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.69,0.548,0.81,0.117,0.039,0.186 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.81,0.102,0.02,0.18 TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.111,0.042,0.179 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.642,0.881,0.134,0.061,0.204 @@ -108,16 +108,33 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.091,-0.197,-0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.004,-0.017,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.07,-0.169,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.051,-0.143,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.017,-0.021,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.01,-0.042,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.595,0.452,0.762,0.029,-0.019,0.073 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.881,0.025,0.008,0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.037,-0.022,0.096 -Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.055,-0.023,0.121 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.738,0.619,0.858,0.039,-0.013,0.086 Toto-2.0-313m,LightGBM,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.049,-0.027,0.118 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.073,0.025,0.122 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.315,0.236,0.387 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.085,-0.135,-0.039 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.166,0.405,-0.025,-0.082,0.029 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.04,-0.028,0.117 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.038,-0.094,0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.286,0.548,0.045,-0.022,0.118 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.018,-0.078,0.038 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.048,-0.022,0.125 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.064,-0.001,0.132 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.057,0.011,0.111 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.076,0.008,0.15 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.072,0.01,0.14 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.084,0.01,0.157 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.085,0.024,0.148 +TS-ICL,LightGBM,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.095,0.044,0.147 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.118,0.054,0.183 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.349,0.275,0.416 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.333,-0.16,-0.246,-0.096 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.405,0.238,0.548,-0.096,-0.181,-0.028 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.026,-0.066,0.014 @@ -125,12 +142,12 @@ TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.109,-0.218,-0.029 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.021,-0.056,0.015 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.088,-0.187,-0.001 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.017,-0.054,0.021 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.069,-0.153,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,citras-fm,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.007,-0.053,0.03 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.56,0.405,0.702,0.013,-0.017,0.038 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.009,-0.028,0.043 TiRex,FlowState,0.536,0.393,0.679,0.02,-0.022,0.067 -TiRex,CatBoost,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.038,-0.034,0.101 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.607,0.464,0.75,0.022,-0.002,0.047 TiRex,LightGBM,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.033,-0.032,0.094 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.726,0.595,0.857,0.057,0.024,0.094 @@ -142,12 +159,12 @@ citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.101,-0.188,-0.034 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.013,-0.057,0.032 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.081,-0.159,-0.009 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.01,-0.055,0.04 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.061,-0.125,-0.011 citras-fm,TiRex,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.007,-0.031,0.051 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.333,0.643,0.02,-0.028,0.071 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.016,-0.025,0.057 citras-fm,FlowState,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.028,-0.028,0.083 -citras-fm,CatBoost,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.045,-0.02,0.111 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.029,-0.011,0.071 citras-fm,LightGBM,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.04,-0.016,0.096 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.064,0.024,0.105 @@ -159,12 +176,12 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.124,-0.229,-0.042 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.034,-0.082,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.103,-0.203,-0.015 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.405,0.238,0.548,-0.03,-0.078,0.018 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.083,-0.176,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.44,0.298,0.595,-0.013,-0.04,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.667,-0.02,-0.077,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.004,-0.054,0.039 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.512,0.369,0.643,0.008,-0.034,0.054 -TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.026,-0.046,0.09 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.607,0.476,0.738,0.01,-0.029,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.02,-0.046,0.083 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.655,0.524,0.774,0.045,0.012,0.078 @@ -176,12 +193,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.119,-0.221,-0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.214,0.095,0.357,-0.03,-0.051,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.098,-0.193,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.262,0.119,0.405,-0.026,-0.044,-0.008 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.078,-0.163,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.009,-0.045,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.016,-0.061,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.004,-0.04,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.548,0.405,0.691,0.012,-0.043,0.076 -Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.03,-0.046,0.096 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.014,-0.034,0.062 Toto-2.0-22m,LightGBM,0.714,0.571,0.834,0.024,-0.046,0.088 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.049,0.006,0.099 @@ -193,33 +210,16 @@ FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.133,-0.234,-0.05 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.042,-0.101,0.016 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.111,-0.212,-0.018 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.038,-0.106,0.022 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.091,-0.186,-0.01 FlowState,TiRex,0.464,0.321,0.607,-0.021,-0.072,0.021 FlowState,citras-fm,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.028,-0.091,0.027 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.488,0.357,0.631,-0.008,-0.058,0.033 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.452,0.309,0.595,-0.012,-0.082,0.042 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,CatBoost,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.018,-0.064,0.091 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.464,0.333,0.595,0.002,-0.044,0.043 FlowState,LightGBM,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.012,-0.066,0.082 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.607,0.476,0.738,0.037,-0.004,0.079 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.857,1.0,0.289,0.229,0.346 -CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.206,-0.288,-0.136 -CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.31,0.167,0.429,-0.139,-0.235,-0.061 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.067,-0.15,0.014 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.154,-0.237,-0.078 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.062,-0.144,0.016 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.132,-0.228,-0.041 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.058,-0.138,0.023 -CatBoost,TiRex,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.04,-0.112,0.033 -CatBoost,citras-fm,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.048,-0.124,0.019 -CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.027,-0.099,0.044 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.031,-0.106,0.044 -CatBoost,FlowState,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.019,-0.1,0.06 -CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.286,0.572,-0.017,-0.079,0.047 -CatBoost,LightGBM,0.643,0.5,0.786,-0.006,-0.048,0.035 -CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.019,-0.054,0.091 -CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.276,0.193,0.351 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.187,-0.27,-0.115 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.121,-0.211,-0.044 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.238,0.119,0.358,-0.049,-0.104,0.007 @@ -227,12 +227,12 @@ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.135,-0.243,-0.047 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.044,-0.096,0.008 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.113,-0.22,-0.02 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.262,0.142,0.381,-0.04,-0.094,0.013 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.093,-0.174,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.393,0.25,0.536,-0.023,-0.049,0.002 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.03,-0.076,0.011 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.393,0.262,0.524,-0.01,-0.047,0.028 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.014,-0.066,0.033 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.536,0.405,0.667,-0.002,-0.045,0.042 -Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.571,0.428,0.714,0.016,-0.049,0.073 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.548,0.381,0.69,0.011,-0.051,0.07 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.429,0.69,0.035,0.0,0.077 @@ -244,12 +244,12 @@ LightGBM,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.147,-0.241,-0.063 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.055,-0.134,0.018 LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.125,-0.218,-0.044 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.051,-0.134,0.027 +LightGBM,TS-ICL,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.105,-0.172,-0.046 LightGBM,TiRex,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.034,-0.104,0.031 LightGBM,citras-fm,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.041,-0.106,0.016 LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.021,-0.09,0.044 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.166,0.429,-0.025,-0.097,0.044 LightGBM,FlowState,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.013,-0.089,0.062 -LightGBM,CatBoost,0.357,0.214,0.5,0.006,-0.036,0.046 LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.452,0.31,0.619,-0.011,-0.076,0.049 LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.025,-0.038,0.084 @@ -261,12 +261,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.176,-0.288,-0.094 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.119,0.024,0.214,-0.082,-0.139,-0.032 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.238,0.119,0.358,-0.154,-0.256,-0.065 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.079,-0.139,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.133,-0.224,-0.057 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.274,0.143,0.405,-0.06,-0.103,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.068,-0.118,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.345,0.226,0.476,-0.047,-0.084,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.051,-0.11,-0.006 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.393,0.262,0.524,-0.039,-0.086,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.02,-0.1,0.051 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.31,0.571,-0.037,-0.084,-0.0 Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.026,-0.092,0.037 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -278,12 +278,12 @@ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.594,-0.765,-0.45 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.466,-0.629,-0.313 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.036,0.0,0.095,-0.563,-0.746,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.461,-0.633,-0.309 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.535,-0.712,-0.379 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.436,-0.594,-0.296 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.447,-0.603,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.418,-0.563,-0.298 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.424,-0.582,-0.286 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.071,0.0,0.143,-0.407,-0.53,-0.297 -Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.381,-0.542,-0.239 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.404,-0.558,-0.268 Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.119,0.024,0.238,-0.389,-0.553,-0.253 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.119,0.024,0.238,-0.355,-0.484,-0.241 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WQL.csv index 5a4e77a5f1b6ded3424e18b7e198d2cbce6a6870..d2b239e98acf5e26cc1fd260c4142136526559d2 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.548,0.381,0.69,0.054,0.009,0.096 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.114,0.062,0.174 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.046,-0.004,0.09 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.114,0.062,0.174 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.121,0.071,0.18 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.738,0.595,0.858,0.12,0.068,0.181 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.069,0.019,0.124 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.141,0.093,0.199 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.079,0.037,0.119 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.81,0.69,0.905,0.133,0.093,0.177 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.152,0.098,0.213 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.146,0.096,0.204 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.857,0.762,0.952,0.162,0.105,0.22 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.163,0.111,0.217 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.186,0.134,0.244 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.185,0.135,0.239 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.503,0.438,0.558 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.452,0.31,0.619,-0.057,-0.106,-0.01 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.063,0.006,0.128 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.009,-0.065,0.047 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.063,0.006,0.128 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.071,0.011,0.135 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.07,0.013,0.134 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.015,-0.042,0.076 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.092,0.038,0.154 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.026,-0.029,0.079 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.084,0.037,0.129 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.103,0.044,0.169 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.097,0.044,0.158 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.114,0.051,0.183 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.115,0.052,0.178 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.139,0.079,0.204 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.139,0.081,0.201 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.474,0.415,0.532 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.128,-0.21,-0.066 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.067,-0.146,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.214,0.524,-0.076,-0.181,0.006 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.009,-0.006,0.023 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.007,-0.008,0.026 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.051,-0.148,0.035 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.031,-0.005,0.066 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.022,-0.029,0.065 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.571,0.834,0.043,-0.008,0.088 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.81,0.69,0.905,0.036,0.017,0.056 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.643,0.499,0.786,0.054,-0.005,0.106 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.055,0.005,0.098 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.81,0.69,0.905,0.082,0.041,0.121 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.081,0.035,0.122 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.439,0.364,0.506 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.048,-0.099,0.004 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.008,-0.05,0.061 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.619,0.476,0.786,0.071,-0.006,0.153 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.619,0.476,0.786,0.071,-0.006,0.153 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.452,0.715,0.079,0.004,0.159 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.548,0.405,0.714,0.078,0.002,0.163 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.024,-0.026,0.072 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.571,0.452,0.715,0.1,0.032,0.176 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.034,-0.014,0.085 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.091,0.03,0.158 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.111,0.042,0.188 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.105,0.033,0.182 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.121,0.052,0.192 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.122,0.048,0.198 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.147,0.074,0.225 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.146,0.081,0.218 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.478,0.417,0.537 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.128,-0.21,-0.066 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.067,-0.146,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.214,0.524,-0.076,-0.181,0.006 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.009,-0.006,0.023 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.007,-0.008,0.026 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.051,-0.148,0.035 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.031,-0.005,0.066 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.04,-0.12,0.024 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.022,-0.029,0.065 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.571,0.834,0.043,-0.008,0.088 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.81,0.69,0.905,0.036,0.017,0.056 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.643,0.499,0.786,0.054,-0.005,0.106 +Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.055,0.005,0.098 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.081,0.035,0.122 +Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.439,0.364,0.506 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.138,-0.22,-0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.077,-0.156,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.009,-0.024,0.006 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.285,0.548,-0.086,-0.189,-0.004 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.009,-0.024,0.006 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.619,0.476,0.762,-0.001,-0.021,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.06,-0.155,0.027 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.023,-0.015,0.056 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.049,-0.131,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.013,-0.035,0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.035,-0.019,0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.028,0.004,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.643,0.476,0.762,0.046,-0.016,0.097 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.047,-0.004,0.09 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.073,0.034,0.113 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.073,0.022,0.115 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.434,0.355,0.502 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.262,0.142,0.405,-0.137,-0.221,-0.073 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.075,-0.155,-0.013 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.007,-0.026,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.286,0.595,-0.084,-0.195,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.007,-0.026,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.381,0.238,0.524,0.001,-0.016,0.02 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.452,0.309,0.595,-0.059,-0.162,0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.024,-0.008,0.056 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.047,-0.132,0.02 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.015,-0.035,0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.738,0.036,-0.013,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.029,0.015,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.047,-0.015,0.104 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.048,-0.001,0.09 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.075,0.035,0.111 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.074,0.027,0.119 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.434,0.358,0.502 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.074,-0.141,-0.019 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.016,-0.082,0.041 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.048,-0.036,0.129 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.024,-0.078,0.025 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.048,-0.036,0.129 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.057,-0.028,0.134 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.548,0.405,0.691,0.055,-0.03,0.14 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.078,-0.003,0.157 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.011,-0.051,0.069 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.069,0.006,0.131 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.089,0.012,0.165 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.083,0.005,0.162 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.1,0.02,0.177 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.101,0.018,0.18 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.126,0.048,0.209 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.125,0.053,0.194 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.964,0.905,1.0,0.466,0.393,0.527 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.165,-0.248,-0.103 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.102,-0.182,-0.039 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.032,-0.071,0.005 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.285,0.548,-0.111,-0.213,-0.033 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.032,-0.071,0.005 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.023,-0.059,0.015 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.025,-0.059,0.008 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.085,-0.187,0.003 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.738,-0.073,-0.153,-0.005 TiRex,citras-fm,0.524,0.357,0.667,-0.01,-0.05,0.024 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.631,0.476,0.774,0.012,-0.017,0.037 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.005,-0.026,0.035 TiRex,FlowState,0.56,0.405,0.714,0.024,-0.018,0.07 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.702,0.571,0.845,0.025,-0.0,0.049 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.726,0.595,0.857,0.052,0.023,0.085 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.798,0.679,0.905,0.051,0.019,0.086 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.421,0.35,0.487 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.085,-0.135,-0.038 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.027,-0.085,0.028 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.035,-0.093,0.014 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.038,-0.025,0.107 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.046,-0.016,0.116 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.045,-0.02,0.117 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.011,-0.074,0.049 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.405,0.262,0.548,0.068,0.005,0.133 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.059,0.009,0.111 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.08,0.016,0.146 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.073,0.014,0.141 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.762,0.09,0.023,0.162 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.091,0.032,0.152 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.116,0.058,0.175 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.46,0.395,0.519 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.19,0.095,0.31,-0.154,-0.215,-0.102 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.091,-0.148,-0.039 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.022,-0.07,0.028 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.101,-0.188,-0.031 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.022,-0.07,0.028 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.014,-0.058,0.034 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.015,-0.057,0.034 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.074,-0.151,-0.006 citras-fm,TiRex,0.476,0.333,0.643,0.01,-0.024,0.048 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.063,-0.125,-0.01 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.022,-0.02,0.069 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.714,0.015,-0.025,0.058 citras-fm,FlowState,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.033,-0.016,0.087 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.034,-0.0,0.071 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.061,0.024,0.106 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.06,0.023,0.1 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.426,0.357,0.489 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.179,-0.271,-0.109 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.115,-0.204,-0.047 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.166,0.429,-0.045,-0.096,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.125,-0.231,-0.044 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.166,0.429,-0.045,-0.096,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.036,-0.086,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.262,0.571,-0.037,-0.086,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.098,-0.197,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.369,0.226,0.524,-0.012,-0.038,0.017 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.086,-0.171,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.022,-0.074,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.007,-0.055,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.488,0.357,0.619,0.012,-0.03,0.057 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.44,0.726,0.013,-0.025,0.047 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.607,0.476,0.738,0.04,-0.006,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.655,0.524,0.774,0.039,0.011,0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.346,0.477 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.171,-0.257,-0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.108,-0.188,-0.046 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.19,0.095,0.31,-0.038,-0.059,-0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.117,-0.222,-0.034 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.19,0.095,0.31,-0.038,-0.059,-0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.029,-0.053,-0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.03,-0.046,-0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.091,-0.193,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.005,-0.037,0.026 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.079,-0.164,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.452,0.286,0.595,-0.015,-0.061,0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.007,-0.039,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.019,-0.038,0.078 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.02,-0.025,0.059 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.047,0.011,0.08 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.046,0.004,0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.417,0.343,0.485 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.238,-0.193,-0.281,-0.118 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.129,-0.224,-0.053 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.357,0.214,0.501,-0.058,-0.118,0.004 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.138,-0.238,-0.055 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.357,0.214,0.501,-0.058,-0.118,0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.357,0.238,0.524,-0.048,-0.107,0.016 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.05,-0.116,0.014 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.111,-0.215,-0.02 FlowState,TiRex,0.44,0.286,0.595,-0.024,-0.075,0.017 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.405,0.238,0.548,-0.099,-0.193,-0.023 FlowState,citras-fm,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.034,-0.095,0.016 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.512,0.381,0.643,-0.012,-0.06,0.029 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.019,-0.084,0.036 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.512,0.381,0.643,0.001,-0.044,0.042 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.631,0.488,0.762,0.029,-0.03,0.084 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.607,0.476,0.738,0.028,-0.015,0.071 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.406,0.347,0.463 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.194,-0.277,-0.125 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.13,-0.217,-0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.059,-0.108,-0.005 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.139,-0.247,-0.051 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.059,-0.108,-0.005 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.049,-0.098,0.004 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.051,-0.099,0.001 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.112,-0.22,-0.018 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.298,0.155,0.429,-0.025,-0.051,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.1,-0.179,-0.033 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.035,-0.077,0.0 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.274,0.56,-0.013,-0.049,0.024 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.02,-0.063,0.024 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.488,0.357,0.619,-0.001,-0.044,0.042 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.452,0.726,0.028,-0.001,0.057 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.429,0.691,0.027,-0.006,0.066 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.406,0.337,0.469 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.229,-0.323,-0.155 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.162,-0.256,-0.086 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.19,0.095,0.31,-0.089,-0.138,-0.043 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.172,-0.291,-0.08 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.079,-0.127,-0.035 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.081,-0.125,-0.036 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.144,-0.264,-0.051 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.274,0.143,0.405,-0.055,-0.092,-0.023 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.065,-0.119,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.393,0.262,0.524,-0.042,-0.092,0.006 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.049,-0.086,-0.011 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.369,0.238,0.512,-0.03,-0.092,0.029 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.274,0.548,-0.029,-0.061,0.001 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.44,0.298,0.583,-0.001,-0.048,0.043 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.389,0.314,0.457 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.227,-0.314,-0.156 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.161,-0.251,-0.088 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.088,-0.14,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.171,-0.278,-0.088 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.088,-0.14,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.078,-0.13,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.08,-0.135,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.143,-0.241,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.202,0.095,0.321,-0.054,-0.094,-0.02 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.131,-0.212,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.064,-0.111,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.345,0.226,0.476,-0.041,-0.072,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.048,-0.101,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.393,0.262,0.524,-0.029,-0.077,0.014 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.309,0.571,-0.028,-0.071,0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.417,0.702,0.001,-0.045,0.046 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.905,1.0,0.389,0.321,0.451 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-1.01,-1.263,-0.779 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.901,-1.139,-0.71 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.781,-1.023,-0.572 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.917,-1.16,-0.715 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.781,-1.023,-0.572 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.766,-1.007,-0.55 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.768,-1.007,-0.558 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.036,0.0,0.095,-0.872,-1.115,-0.648 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.726,-0.949,-0.537 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.852,-1.079,-0.653 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.742,-0.956,-0.556 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.705,-0.911,-0.529 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.717,-0.94,-0.522 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.685,-0.863,-0.53 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.683,-0.882,-0.507 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.636,-0.842,-0.458 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.024,0.0,0.095,-0.638,-0.823,-0.473 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 83717e845d5a06e7ff2f3f041851b21330821db7..57f8c656991d29690b42744e8a80159a0cc708e2 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,83.46938775510205,42.37962809390597,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,82.55102040816327,42.20523827207805,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,81.53061224489797,42.006798813920796,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,77.75510204081631,41.19031821593736,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.55102040816327,40.805224762539694,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,71.63265306122449,40.47703024635902,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,71.3265306122449,39.81314672865939,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,70.61224489795917,39.82701860526772,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.0,38.70507938155933,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.79591836734693,38.48001468455288,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -citras-fm,63.36734693877549,38.07284039930927,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,57.6530612244898,35.39038084875803,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.377551020408156,36.61629177551803,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.030612244897945,35.002811549465626,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,47.551020408163254,34.03615459868672,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,46.32653061224489,32.62962647463809,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,45.10204081632653,34.56355030672918,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,39.38775510204081,30.421636182713975,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.469387755102034,25.799072425986303,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 -LightGBM,37.55102040816326,27.664714643052324,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,33.57142857142857,26.58823462824348,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 -TFT,30.71428571428571,24.074542520238907,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,27.806122448979593,14.94665084779918,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 -AutoTheta,27.448979591836732,20.18219419387095,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,24.897959183673464,20.17693379420851,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,23.6734693877551,18.076754194913157,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 -Naive,18.21428571428571,8.938030239814665,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.632653061224488,10.236281397576896,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,9.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,83.25123152709362,42.37962809390597,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,82.66009852216749,42.20523827207805,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,81.28078817733993,42.006798813920796,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,77.83251231527093,41.19031821593736,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,77.3399014778325,40.805224762539694,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,71.5270935960591,40.47703024635902,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,71.5270935960591,39.81314672865939,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,70.73891625615762,39.82701860526772,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,69.75369458128078,38.70507938155933,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,64.4334975369458,38.48001468455288,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +citras-fm,62.561576354679794,38.07284039930927,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.49261083743842,37.939637725184305,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,57.04433497536945,35.39038084875803,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.911330049261075,36.61629177551803,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,53.448275862068954,35.002811549465626,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,46.9950738916256,34.03615459868672,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,45.71428571428571,32.62962647463809,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,44.630541871921174,34.56355030672918,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,38.620689655172406,30.421636182713975,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,37.832512315270925,25.799072425986303,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 +LightGBM,36.945812807881765,27.664714643052324,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,33.00492610837438,26.58823462824348,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 +TFT,30.04926108374384,24.074542520238907,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,27.635467980295562,14.94665084779918,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 +AutoTheta,26.99507389162561,20.18219419387095,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,24.433497536945808,20.17693379420851,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,23.152709359605907,18.076754194913157,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 +Naive,17.881773399014776,8.938030239814665,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 +Drift,16.453201970443345,10.236281397576896,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.85221674876847,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 8034a6ded5bf6eb146d601cc4454df8a8b8010cb..0981e0788e3f04078ea37e619a2ce0b3374631c8 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,86.53061224489798,56.24594683677972,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,84.28571428571429,56.153039055320534,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,83.57142857142857,56.008529924072505,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,80.0,54.6012530865724,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,79.28571428571428,55.1331402332338,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,76.93877551020407,54.956049957217616,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.69387755102039,54.15563623568822,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,72.75510204081633,53.962013710251625,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,72.75510204081631,53.071981977564405,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.95918367346937,52.79391261932832,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -citras-fm,63.26530612244897,51.794154070081255,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,58.87755102040815,50.37345891984082,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,58.72448979591836,50.95532629740666,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.030612244897945,49.44557468666984,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,53.77551020408162,49.813403234908485,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,48.16326530612244,48.15956039754633,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.795918367346935,45.65760722577821,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,37.75510204081632,43.12812641312074,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 -TFT,35.20408163265306,40.55122516723462,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,33.16326530612245,28.823634833572388,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 -DeepAR,30.510204081632647,37.56325937155223,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,27.295918367346932,-13.587078390469642,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 -LightGBM,26.428571428571423,33.00191912776389,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,25.91836734693877,29.200998362644015,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 -CatBoost,25.91836734693877,35.55542329051369,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,19.18367346938775,14.938651834571226,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.428571428571425,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.07142857142857,-24.141881005489306,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.714285714285712,-21.43004900644645,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,86.40394088669952,56.24594683677972,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,84.23645320197045,56.153039055320534,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,83.44827586206898,56.008529924072505,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,79.9014778325123,54.6012530865724,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,79.21182266009852,55.1331402332338,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,76.7487684729064,54.956049957217616,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,74.48275862068967,54.15563623568822,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,73.00492610837438,53.962013710251625,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,72.61083743842363,53.071981977564405,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,67.38916256157634,52.79391261932832,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.8423645320197,52.49405634788529,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,62.26600985221672,51.794154070081255,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,58.12807881773397,50.37345891984082,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,58.07881773399013,50.95532629740666,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,52.95566502463053,49.44557468666984,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,52.807881773399004,49.813403234908485,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,47.58620689655172,48.15956039754633,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.71921182266009,45.65760722577821,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,37.044334975369445,43.12812641312074,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 +TFT,34.38423645320197,40.55122516723462,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,32.61083743842364,28.823634833572388,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 +DeepAR,29.852216748768473,37.56325937155223,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,26.945812807881765,-13.587078390469642,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 +LightGBM,25.81280788177339,33.00191912776389,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,25.221674876847295,29.200998362644015,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 +CatBoost,25.22167487684729,35.55542329051369,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,18.817733990147783,14.938651834571226,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.034482758620687,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.689655172413792,-24.141881005489306,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.541871921182265,-21.43004900644645,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index c426dfef2174ddd6e259575f3bf88136fc44ba4c..35524b70a88a56e951eca7d69f5dd7b4a3b03c51 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,84.59183673469389,45.64380153509545,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,84.38775510204083,46.07175559172698,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,83.9795918367347,45.49656398580171,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,79.18367346938776,43.976482848629104,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,73.3673469387755,42.766138549210844,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -TiRex-2,70.91836734693877,42.04767479559661,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,70.51020408163265,44.34184922951903,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,69.38775510204083,42.28603186556402,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.55102040816325,41.644068882649776,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.61224489795917,42.06152219112852,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.336734693877546,40.61852164348273,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 -citras-fm,58.36734693877551,40.47090143499153,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,55.102040816326515,39.58186553887033,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,53.72448979591836,37.95787313736294,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,51.020408163265294,40.353645428709726,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,47.95918367346939,38.547278765276026,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,40.306122448979586,34.35604853400894,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,39.08163265306122,32.22451376950516,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,37.85714285714285,26.656189157155087,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 -CatBoost,34.79591836734693,30.3363690234262,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,33.67346938775509,24.144419239287817,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 -TFT,32.44897959183672,25.518118709758486,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,29.081632653061217,24.540387510587635,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,28.928571428571427,17.598567846659442,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 -AutoTheta,26.122448979591834,21.013255167194846,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,21.78571428571428,13.99112565126096,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,21.224489795918362,16.45553689708581,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 -Drift,18.265306122448973,10.971858113653743,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.428571428571423,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,84.53201970443351,45.64380153509545,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,84.23645320197045,46.07175559172698,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,84.03940886699507,45.49656398580171,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,79.3103448275862,43.976482848629104,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,73.10344827586206,42.766138549210844,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +TiRex-2,70.93596059113298,42.04767479559661,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,70.54187192118225,44.34184922951903,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,69.55665024630542,42.28603186556402,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.68472906403939,41.644068882649776,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,65.61576354679804,42.06152219112852,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.295566502463046,41.074696879936454,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,58.76847290640392,40.61852164348273,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 +citras-fm,57.43842364532019,40.47090143499153,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,54.679802955665025,39.58186553887033,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,52.85714285714286,37.95787313736294,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,50.34482758620689,40.353645428709726,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,47.389162561576356,38.547278765276026,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,39.507389162561566,34.35604853400894,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,38.52216748768472,32.22451376950516,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,37.24137931034481,26.656189157155087,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 +CatBoost,33.990147783251224,30.3363690234262,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,33.103448275862064,24.144419239287817,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 +TFT,31.921182266009847,25.518118709758486,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,28.620689655172406,17.598567846659442,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 +DeepAR,28.571428571428566,24.540387510587635,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.714285714285705,21.013255167194846,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,21.527093596059107,13.99112565126096,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,20.68965517241379,16.45553689708581,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 +Drift,18.0295566502463,10.971858113653743,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.231527093596053,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv index e0c86d890c96647b2e2851830aa889d7c5cc5027..eda38e12078bb9e9bd34506f6b77ac5f07757484 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,86.32653061224492,61.12488612662447,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,85.91836734693878,60.99353902913318,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,85.81632653061224,60.918796028667344,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,81.32653061224488,59.957413683613666,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,75.91836734693878,58.85524417940593,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Chronos-2,74.18367346938774,59.9945361042916,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,73.97959183673468,58.018097250967585,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,72.14285714285714,58.32177026876002,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.40816326530611,57.57875059562707,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.18367346938776,58.140880584922364,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.704081632653065,56.60363357702494,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 -citras-fm,61.32653061224488,56.39580865624714,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,61.12244897959182,56.46151176362224,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,58.57142857142856,57.33556321837573,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.5408163265306,54.39269754289919,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,48.26530612244898,53.38177631854182,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,42.65306122448979,50.110970512146395,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.48979591836735,50.12690699864979,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 -TFT,33.877551020408156,43.04581202805166,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,33.16326530612245,43.43420693962238,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,29.387755102040813,26.514107240222685,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 -CatBoost,26.530612244897956,38.8350615663292,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,25.102040816326525,33.398505642559904,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,23.6734693877551,30.90771158984613,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 -AutoETS,23.5204081632653,-16.00702788254289,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 -AutoTheta,16.83673469387755,10.999807424594232,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.295918367346935,-25.39025550566012,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.04081632653061,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.693877551020407,-26.642604521337976,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,86.20689655172417,61.12488612662447,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,85.81280788177341,60.99353902913318,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,85.71428571428572,60.918796028667344,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,81.37931034482759,59.957413683613666,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,75.66502463054185,58.85524417940593,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Chronos-2,74.18719211822659,59.9945361042916,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,73.79310344827583,58.018097250967585,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,72.3152709359606,58.32177026876002,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.24630541871922,57.57875059562707,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,68.96551724137929,58.140880584922364,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.94088669950738,57.47539152663897,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,61.92118226600984,56.60363357702494,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 +FlowState,60.39408866995072,56.46151176362224,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +citras-fm,60.29556650246304,56.39580865624714,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,57.733990147783246,57.33556321837573,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,53.448275862068954,54.39269754289919,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,47.58620689655172,53.38177631854182,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,41.871921182266,50.110970512146395,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.32512315270936,50.12690699864979,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 +TFT,33.103448275862064,43.04581202805166,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,32.41379310344827,43.43420693962238,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,28.768472906403936,26.514107240222685,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 +CatBoost,25.615763546798025,38.8350615663292,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,24.433497536945804,33.398505642559904,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,23.30049261083743,-16.00702788254289,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 +AutoARIMA,22.95566502463054,30.90771158984613,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 +AutoTheta,16.453201970443345,10.999807424594232,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.970443349753692,-25.39025550566012,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.72413793103448,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 +Drift,9.458128078817731,-26.642604521337976,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_MASE.csv index 8bac3d4a5fbc36f33e3f0dfd1ac5887960651674..53733fe5fe3d8ae12d68e64604c1abf8580c2e60 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -10,10 +10,10 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.042,0.007,0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.06,0.006,0.117 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.063,0.015,0.107 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.07,0.023,0.12 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.072,0.021,0.114 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.108,0.051,0.166 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.091,0.028,0.151 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.113,0.058,0.166 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.126,0.069,0.186 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.424,0.337,0.5 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.371,0.229,0.514,-0.003,-0.02,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -26,10 +26,10 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.04,-0.003,0.077 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.057,0.002,0.11 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.061,0.018,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.067,0.016,0.115 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.069,0.013,0.113 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.105,0.047,0.164 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.088,0.026,0.146 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.111,0.059,0.16 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.124,0.065,0.187 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.422,0.336,0.5 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.257,0.571,-0.006,-0.017,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.457,0.771,-0.003,-0.013,0.006 @@ -42,10 +42,10 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.036,-0.005,0.075 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.054,0.0,0.111 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.057,0.011,0.102 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.064,0.012,0.114 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.066,0.01,0.11 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.102,0.044,0.161 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.085,0.021,0.146 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.108,0.054,0.159 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.771,0.628,0.914,0.121,0.062,0.185 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.42,0.334,0.497 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.021,-0.042,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.018,-0.037,0.001 @@ -58,10 +58,10 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.023,-0.005,0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.657,0.514,0.801,0.041,-0.002,0.083 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.044,0.003,0.08 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.05,0.011,0.086 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.052,0.012,0.087 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.09,0.034,0.144 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.072,0.019,0.12 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.095,0.047,0.137 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.108,0.052,0.164 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.412,0.327,0.485 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.027,-0.074,0.017 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.371,0.228,0.543,-0.024,-0.071,0.023 @@ -74,10 +74,10 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.016,-0.002,0.034 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.034,0.014,0.059 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.038,0.002,0.072 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.044,0.023,0.069 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.046,0.02,0.074 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.084,0.028,0.133 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.066,0.031,0.102 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.089,0.052,0.125 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.103,0.047,0.151 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.408,0.327,0.475 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.033,-0.074,0.005 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.03,-0.076,0.017 @@ -90,10 +90,10 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.543,0.371,0.686,0.011,-0.018,0.04 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.029,-0.004,0.064 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.032,-0.003,0.065 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.039,0.011,0.069 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.041,0.011,0.074 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.079,0.033,0.122 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.061,0.018,0.102 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.084,0.048,0.121 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.098,0.058,0.134 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.405,0.329,0.472 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.045,-0.084,-0.003 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.041,-0.081,0.002 @@ -106,10 +106,10 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.4,0.714,-0.0,-0.024,0.022 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.018,-0.02,0.056 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.629,0.471,0.771,0.022,-0.016,0.056 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.028,-0.003,0.06 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.03,0.009,0.051 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.686,0.542,0.829,0.068,0.012,0.121 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.05,0.007,0.093 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.743,0.586,0.871,0.074,0.029,0.116 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.088,0.033,0.141 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.398,0.317,0.469 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.044,-0.086,-0.007 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.041,-0.083,0.003 @@ -122,10 +122,10 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.018,-0.005,0.044 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.022,-0.017,0.057 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.028,0.009,0.049 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.03,0.01,0.053 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.069,0.018,0.117 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.051,0.01,0.087 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.074,0.036,0.109 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.088,0.039,0.133 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.398,0.319,0.465 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.064,-0.132,-0.006 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.061,-0.123,-0.002 @@ -138,10 +138,10 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.019,-0.046,0.005 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.004,-0.031,0.041 TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.01,-0.009,0.032 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.629,0.486,0.771,0.012,-0.02,0.043 TiRex,FlowState,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.051,0.0,0.1 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.033,0.007,0.057 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.057,0.028,0.088 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.914,0.828,1.0,0.071,0.022,0.108 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.387,0.315,0.447 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.068,-0.12,-0.015 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.064,-0.115,-0.019 @@ -154,10 +154,10 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.022,-0.06,0.016 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.004,-0.043,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.486,0.314,0.657,0.007,-0.035,0.048 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.009,-0.032,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.442,0.757,0.048,0.008,0.092 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.557,0.843,0.029,-0.001,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.053,0.024,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.067,0.031,0.106 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.385,0.314,0.449 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.075,-0.136,-0.024 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.072,-0.13,-0.016 @@ -170,11 +170,27 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.029,-0.051,-0.009 citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.01,-0.034,0.009 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.514,0.343,0.686,-0.007,-0.05,0.034 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.257,0.544,0.002,-0.022,0.027 citras-fm,FlowState,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.042,-0.017,0.091 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.023,-0.016,0.053 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.047,0.01,0.077 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.061,0.006,0.104 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.381,0.303,0.446 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.077,-0.129,-0.022 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.074,-0.127,-0.013 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.07,-0.123,-0.01 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.055,-0.095,-0.012 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.048,-0.08,-0.021 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.043,-0.08,-0.012 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.031,-0.053,-0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.031,-0.056,-0.01 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.371,0.229,0.514,-0.012,-0.045,0.02 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.009,-0.049,0.031 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.456,0.743,-0.002,-0.028,0.021 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.457,0.771,0.039,-0.016,0.091 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.4,0.714,0.021,-0.015,0.056 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.045,0.007,0.08 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.379,0.301,0.448 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.121,-0.199,-0.054 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.118,-0.196,-0.049 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.114,-0.192,-0.047 @@ -186,10 +202,10 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.074,-0.132,-0.019 FlowState,TiRex,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.054,-0.112,-0.0 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.243,0.557,-0.05,-0.102,-0.008 FlowState,citras-fm,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.043,-0.1,0.017 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.229,0.543,-0.041,-0.1,0.016 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.486,0.329,0.643,-0.019,-0.076,0.034 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.543,0.386,0.686,0.006,-0.028,0.048 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.021,-0.031,0.063 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.354,0.292,0.41 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.1,-0.177,-0.029 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.097,-0.171,-0.027 @@ -202,10 +218,10 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.053,-0.096,-0.01 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.034,-0.06,-0.008 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.157,0.443,-0.03,-0.062,0.001 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.024,-0.056,0.016 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.429,0.286,0.6,-0.021,-0.06,0.015 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.514,0.357,0.671,0.019,-0.035,0.071 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.486,0.757,0.025,-0.0,0.055 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.039,-0.006,0.077 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.366,0.299,0.427 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.128,-0.199,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.125,-0.19,-0.063 @@ -218,27 +234,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.08,-0.122,-0.037 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.06,-0.096,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.057,-0.095,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.05,-0.084,-0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.047,-0.087,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.457,0.314,0.614,-0.006,-0.05,0.027 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.386,0.243,0.514,-0.025,-0.058,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.015,-0.039,0.057 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.35,0.284,0.409 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.145,-0.229,-0.074 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.141,-0.229,-0.069 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.372,-0.137,-0.227,-0.067 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.122,-0.196,-0.055 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.114,-0.178,-0.049 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.108,-0.155,-0.062 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.096,-0.164,-0.035 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.096,-0.153,-0.04 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.086,0.0,0.172,-0.076,-0.122,-0.022 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.072,-0.119,-0.032 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.065,-0.116,-0.006 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.021,-0.067,0.03 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.041,-0.083,0.006 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.015,-0.061,0.037 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.34,0.276,0.401 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.735,-1.001,-0.509 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.73,-0.999,-0.506 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.724,-0.988,-0.5 @@ -250,8 +250,8 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.662,-0.87,-0.469 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.631,-0.808,-0.46 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.625,-0.815,-0.457 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.615,-0.805,-0.435 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.611,-0.81,-0.431 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.548,-0.696,-0.412 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.578,-0.745,-0.426 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.539,-0.691,-0.396 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.516,-0.668,-0.382 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_SQL.csv index f0307c57c663df08a56612439cd06c8cf32ddbe0..d21f55b3db75a14fd03368a4bdeeb686298ac33f 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -6,14 +6,14 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.686,0.914,0.025,0.007,0.043 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.657,0.514,0.829,0.036,-0.009,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.029,-0.007,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.046,0.005,0.081 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.068,0.02,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.05,0.016,0.083 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.068,0.02,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.073,0.027,0.115 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.079,0.032,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.092,0.044,0.14 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.118,0.064,0.174 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.108,0.045,0.166 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.135,0.077,0.188 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.771,0.628,0.914,0.128,0.075,0.182 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.562,0.46,0.652 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.002,-0.018,0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -22,14 +22,14 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.023,0.008,0.039 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.034,-0.01,0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.027,-0.015,0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.044,0.002,0.076 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.066,0.015,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.048,0.009,0.081 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.066,0.015,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.071,0.03,0.113 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.077,0.028,0.117 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.09,0.037,0.138 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.116,0.061,0.173 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.106,0.046,0.162 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.133,0.078,0.184 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.126,0.07,0.184 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.46,0.65 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.005,-0.017,0.006 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.629,0.486,0.8,-0.003,-0.011,0.004 @@ -38,14 +38,14 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.02,0.002,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.6,0.457,0.771,0.031,-0.014,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.023,-0.017,0.061 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.04,-0.004,0.075 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.063,0.012,0.115 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.044,0.007,0.08 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.063,0.012,0.115 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.068,0.024,0.111 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.074,0.023,0.115 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.087,0.035,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.114,0.06,0.17 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.103,0.04,0.162 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.13,0.073,0.184 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.771,0.628,0.914,0.123,0.069,0.182 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.56,0.458,0.649 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.314,-0.025,-0.045,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.023,-0.04,-0.008 @@ -54,14 +54,14 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.012,-0.022,0.042 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.657,0.514,0.829,0.004,-0.033,0.039 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.021,-0.009,0.047 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.657,0.514,0.801,0.044,0.004,0.083 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.025,-0.001,0.047 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.657,0.514,0.801,0.044,0.004,0.083 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.05,0.008,0.086 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.056,0.017,0.086 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.069,0.028,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.096,0.041,0.15 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.085,0.035,0.133 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.113,0.062,0.157 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.106,0.051,0.16 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.551,0.451,0.641 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.343,0.171,0.486,-0.038,-0.083,0.009 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.035,-0.081,0.009 @@ -70,14 +70,14 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.012,-0.044,0.022 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.008,-0.048,0.026 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.486,0.314,0.629,0.01,-0.016,0.037 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.033,0.014,0.055 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.014,-0.003,0.031 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.033,0.014,0.055 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.038,0.001,0.072 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.044,0.021,0.07 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.058,0.036,0.082 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.085,0.032,0.131 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.074,0.042,0.107 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.943,0.102,0.07,0.133 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.095,0.039,0.143 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.454,0.631 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.029,-0.064,0.007 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.027,-0.069,0.015 @@ -86,14 +86,14 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.171,0.486,-0.004,-0.04,0.032 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.008,-0.026,0.046 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.486,0.314,0.657,0.017,-0.02,0.055 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.543,0.399,0.686,0.04,0.007,0.078 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.022,-0.007,0.055 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.543,0.399,0.686,0.04,0.007,0.078 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.046,0.011,0.079 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.052,0.024,0.085 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.066,0.034,0.106 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.092,0.048,0.138 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.082,0.036,0.127 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.109,0.069,0.151 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.102,0.065,0.138 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.456,0.636 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.048,-0.088,-0.005 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.046,-0.082,-0.002 @@ -102,31 +102,15 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.022,-0.05,0.009 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.514,0.371,0.686,-0.01,-0.038,0.016 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.514,0.343,0.686,-0.018,-0.059,0.019 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.023,-0.014,0.059 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.004,-0.02,0.026 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.023,-0.014,0.059 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.657,0.5,0.8,0.029,-0.012,0.065 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.035,0.014,0.057 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.049,0.015,0.08 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.076,0.02,0.13 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.065,0.024,0.104 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.093,0.048,0.135 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.087,0.03,0.139 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.445,0.632 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.073,-0.134,-0.02 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.07,-0.13,-0.016 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.067,-0.13,-0.012 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.199,0.486,-0.046,-0.091,-0.004 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.034,-0.059,-0.014 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.457,0.314,0.601,-0.042,-0.084,-0.007 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.024,-0.062,0.013 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.019,-0.045,0.004 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.743,0.006,-0.03,0.041 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.027,0.004,0.051 -TiRex,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.054,0.004,0.103 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.043,0.017,0.068 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.072,0.046,0.101 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.065,0.012,0.104 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.441,0.618 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.052,-0.09,-0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.05,-0.089,-0.009 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.047,-0.087,-0.007 @@ -134,15 +118,31 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.026,-0.05,0.001 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.014,-0.032,0.003 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.022,-0.058,0.007 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.004,-0.026,0.019 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.019,-0.004,0.043 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.019,-0.004,0.043 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.025,-0.016,0.059 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.031,0.011,0.05 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.045,0.022,0.068 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.072,0.021,0.12 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.061,0.022,0.096 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.089,0.05,0.126 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.083,0.029,0.128 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.54,0.442,0.629 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.073,-0.134,-0.02 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.07,-0.13,-0.016 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.067,-0.13,-0.012 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.199,0.486,-0.046,-0.091,-0.004 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.034,-0.059,-0.014 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.457,0.314,0.601,-0.042,-0.084,-0.007 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.024,-0.062,0.013 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.019,-0.045,0.004 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.743,0.006,-0.03,0.041 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.012,-0.017,0.039 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.027,0.004,0.051 +TiRex,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.054,0.004,0.103 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.043,0.017,0.068 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.072,0.046,0.101 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.441,0.618 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.079,-0.129,-0.028 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.077,-0.127,-0.031 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.073,-0.125,-0.025 @@ -150,15 +150,31 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.052,-0.094,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.04,-0.078,-0.001 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.048,-0.086,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.343,0.2,0.5,-0.03,-0.07,0.011 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.257,0.571,-0.006,-0.042,0.029 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.025,-0.062,0.016 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.257,0.571,-0.006,-0.042,0.029 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.006,-0.032,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.571,0.428,0.743,0.021,-0.023,0.068 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.714,0.557,0.843,0.049,0.013,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.037,0.004,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.743,0.6,0.871,0.066,0.032,0.105 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.059,0.024,0.096 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.437,0.613 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.086,-0.133,-0.033 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.083,-0.132,-0.028 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.08,-0.13,-0.023 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.059,-0.094,-0.018 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.046,-0.075,-0.022 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.055,-0.093,-0.024 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.036,-0.06,-0.014 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.032,-0.052,-0.012 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.012,-0.04,0.017 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.006,-0.044,0.031 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.657,0.514,0.8,0.015,-0.012,0.039 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.043,-0.01,0.091 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.457,0.771,0.031,-0.002,0.063 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.06,0.026,0.094 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.431,0.614 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.102,-0.162,-0.046 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.099,-0.16,-0.039 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.096,-0.159,-0.036 @@ -166,14 +182,14 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.074,-0.119,-0.029 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.062,-0.09,-0.038 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.07,-0.118,-0.035 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.052,-0.087,-0.016 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.027,-0.054,-0.004 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.047,-0.073,-0.023 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.027,-0.054,-0.004 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.257,0.572,-0.021,-0.073,0.022 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.343,0.2,0.486,-0.015,-0.041,0.012 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,FlowState,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.029,-0.034,0.083 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.629,0.486,0.771,0.017,-0.021,0.045 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.046,0.012,0.075 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.039,-0.028,0.089 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.518,0.42,0.609 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.134,-0.211,-0.069 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.132,-0.209,-0.065 @@ -182,14 +198,14 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.106,-0.176,-0.043 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.093,-0.151,-0.033 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.102,-0.159,-0.05 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.083,-0.149,-0.021 -FlowState,TiRex,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.058,-0.114,-0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.078,-0.137,-0.021 +FlowState,TiRex,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.058,-0.114,-0.004 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.157,0.443,-0.051,-0.095,-0.013 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.045,-0.1,0.01 FlowState,citras-fm,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.029,-0.09,0.033 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.486,0.329,0.643,-0.012,-0.07,0.046 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.543,0.386,0.7,0.018,-0.02,0.067 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.011,-0.042,0.053 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.419,0.585 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.121,-0.199,-0.047 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.119,-0.193,-0.048 @@ -198,14 +214,14 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.093,-0.153,-0.036 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.08,-0.12,-0.044 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.089,-0.146,-0.038 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.1,0.371,-0.07,-0.116,-0.024 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.045,-0.073,-0.017 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.065,-0.106,-0.023 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.045,-0.073,-0.017 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.039,-0.08,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.229,0.543,-0.032,-0.067,0.002 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.371,0.229,0.514,-0.017,-0.047,0.021 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.514,0.357,0.671,0.012,-0.048,0.065 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.671,0.543,0.8,0.03,0.004,0.058 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.023,-0.036,0.067 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.418,0.595 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.155,-0.231,-0.083 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.153,-0.226,-0.085 @@ -214,31 +230,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.127,-0.187,-0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.143,0.057,0.286,-0.114,-0.153,-0.075 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.122,-0.178,-0.075 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.1,0.371,-0.103,-0.156,-0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.077,-0.113,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.098,-0.144,-0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.077,-0.113,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.257,0.129,0.4,-0.071,-0.117,-0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.064,-0.104,-0.026 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.049,-0.081,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.457,0.3,0.614,-0.019,-0.072,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.329,0.2,0.457,-0.031,-0.062,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.4,0.743,-0.007,-0.073,0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.401,0.58 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.372,-0.147,-0.222,-0.081 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.145,-0.226,-0.076 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.372,-0.141,-0.222,-0.074 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.119,-0.19,-0.054 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.105,-0.167,-0.041 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.114,-0.16,-0.069 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.095,-0.162,-0.031 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.069,-0.117,-0.012 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.09,-0.146,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.063,-0.107,-0.024 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.041,-0.098,0.027 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.011,-0.056,0.04 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.023,-0.071,0.034 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.257,0.6,0.007,-0.046,0.068 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.498,0.403,0.591 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.286,-1.875,-0.853 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.281,-1.856,-0.852 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.273,-1.849,-0.843 @@ -246,12 +246,12 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.229,-1.785,-0.822 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.203,-1.713,-0.831 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.747,-0.838 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.181,-1.714,-0.803 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.131,-1.617,-0.788 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.172,-1.696,-0.793 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.131,-1.617,-0.788 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.118,-1.584,-0.776 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.105,-1.592,-0.756 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.074,-1.559,-0.723 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.015,-1.409,-0.72 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.039,-1.47,-0.717 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.978,-1.383,-0.67 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.993,-1.448,-0.676 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv index b9c9875b660049091d04fae5b8410d40831de92e..a82c6ec081d190aa7344bd7282bde67e1b0e32f9 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -9,11 +9,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.069,0.028,0.122 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.066,0.023,0.113 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.076,0.01,0.142 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.069,0.009,0.121 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.085,0.023,0.14 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.092,0.015,0.164 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.094,0.037,0.152 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.107,0.023,0.182 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.131,0.062,0.196 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.096,0.028,0.159 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.461,0.352,0.555 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.008,-0.024,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -25,11 +25,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.062,0.023,0.107 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.058,0.016,0.1 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.069,0.001,0.134 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.062,0.003,0.11 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.078,0.013,0.128 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.085,0.006,0.153 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.087,0.027,0.142 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.1,0.01,0.177 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.124,0.055,0.185 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.089,0.014,0.157 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.456,0.348,0.548 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.011,-0.035,0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.003,-0.014,0.008 @@ -41,11 +41,11 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.06,0.023,0.098 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.056,0.016,0.092 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.066,0.002,0.127 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.059,0.004,0.104 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.857,0.742,0.971,0.075,0.014,0.122 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.082,0.006,0.147 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.084,0.026,0.134 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.098,0.004,0.179 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.122,0.054,0.181 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.086,0.007,0.158 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.455,0.348,0.546 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.039,-0.079,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.031,-0.061,-0.006 @@ -57,11 +57,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.033,0.008,0.059 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.029,0.003,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.04,-0.008,0.085 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.033,-0.013,0.07 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.049,-0.003,0.086 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.057,-0.006,0.11 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.059,0.013,0.097 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.073,-0.022,0.155 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.097,0.04,0.149 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.061,-0.027,0.132 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.44,0.336,0.527 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.061,-0.134,-0.006 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.053,-0.119,0.005 @@ -73,11 +73,11 @@ Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.012,-0.03,0.049 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.657,0.486,0.801,0.008,-0.022,0.034 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.019,-0.018,0.055 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.686,0.543,0.815,0.012,-0.041,0.051 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.029,-0.006,0.06 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.036,-0.013,0.081 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.039,-0.0,0.074 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.871,0.053,-0.047,0.138 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.078,0.02,0.129 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.04,-0.06,0.115 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.428,0.331,0.511 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.032,-0.077,0.014 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.057,0.343,-0.024,-0.076,0.031 @@ -89,11 +89,11 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.429,0.743,0.04,-0.009,0.108 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.036,-0.009,0.095 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.456,0.771,0.046,-0.008,0.113 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.039,-0.011,0.088 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.055,0.015,0.111 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.063,0.004,0.125 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.065,0.024,0.127 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.079,0.014,0.138 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.103,0.046,0.164 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.067,0.024,0.11 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.443,0.339,0.533 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.075,-0.139,-0.028 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.066,-0.12,-0.023 @@ -105,11 +105,11 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.004,-0.029,0.019 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.007,-0.029,0.04 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.629,0.457,0.8,-0.0,-0.055,0.039 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.017,-0.03,0.052 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.024,-0.033,0.07 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.026,-0.007,0.05 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.041,-0.067,0.127 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.066,0.017,0.111 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.028,-0.075,0.098 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.42,0.322,0.505 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.07,-0.127,-0.024 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.062,-0.112,-0.017 @@ -121,11 +121,11 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.004,-0.019,0.028 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.011,-0.024,0.042 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.657,0.514,0.829,0.004,-0.046,0.038 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.021,-0.015,0.048 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.028,-0.023,0.071 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.03,0.003,0.055 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.771,0.628,0.914,0.045,-0.052,0.128 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.743,0.571,0.886,0.07,0.016,0.117 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.032,-0.065,0.098 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.423,0.32,0.51 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.082,-0.165,-0.01 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.074,-0.155,-0.001 @@ -137,11 +137,11 @@ TiRex,TiRex-2,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.007,-0.041,0.028 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.011,-0.044,0.023 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.4,0.743,-0.007,-0.046,0.027 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.01,-0.026,0.04 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.017,-0.008,0.04 TiRex,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.02,-0.006,0.045 TiRex,FlowState,0.629,0.486,0.771,0.034,-0.059,0.114 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.059,0.026,0.099 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.743,0.943,0.022,-0.079,0.083 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.416,0.327,0.494 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.074,-0.138,-0.009 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.066,-0.123,-0.003 @@ -153,12 +153,28 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.371,0.2,0.543,0.0,-0.041,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.343,0.171,0.486,-0.004,-0.039,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.429,0.257,0.6,0.007,-0.028,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.017,-0.03,0.06 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.657,0.5,0.8,0.024,-0.012,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.629,0.457,0.772,0.027,-0.014,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.657,0.5,0.814,0.041,-0.023,0.105 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.843,0.066,0.032,0.106 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.029,-0.044,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.421,0.335,0.502 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.093,-0.162,-0.024 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.084,-0.147,-0.013 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.258,-0.081,-0.139,-0.015 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.052,-0.094,0.003 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.03,-0.063,0.006 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.059,-0.125,-0.015 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.017,-0.054,0.029 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.021,-0.051,0.015 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.01,-0.042,0.025 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.017,-0.064,0.029 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.4,0.714,0.008,-0.033,0.042 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.01,-0.013,0.034 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.4,0.715,0.025,-0.071,0.099 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.05,0.005,0.093 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.411,0.314,0.498 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.101,-0.196,-0.015 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.092,-0.18,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.089,-0.173,-0.006 @@ -169,11 +185,11 @@ Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.025,-0.075,0.032 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.029,-0.076,0.022 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.018,-0.042,0.008 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.343,0.2,0.5,-0.025,-0.062,0.012 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.429,0.286,0.6,-0.008,-0.044,0.032 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.002,-0.028,0.037 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.514,0.357,0.671,0.017,-0.073,0.092 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.671,0.543,0.786,0.043,0.012,0.079 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.004,-0.087,0.064 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.406,0.322,0.482 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.104,-0.18,-0.038 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.095,-0.166,-0.028 @@ -185,11 +201,11 @@ citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.027,-0.053,0.007 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.031,-0.059,-0.003 citras-fm,TiRex,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.02,-0.047,0.005 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.371,0.228,0.543,-0.027,-0.08,0.014 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.01,-0.035,0.013 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.002,-0.038,0.027 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,FlowState,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.015,-0.083,0.092 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.041,-0.001,0.077 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.002,-0.102,0.065 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.405,0.303,0.489 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.12,-0.223,-0.024 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.112,-0.215,-0.01 @@ -201,11 +217,11 @@ FlowState,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.043,-0.145,0.063 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.229,0.086,0.372,-0.047,-0.146,0.05 FlowState,TiRex,0.371,0.229,0.514,-0.035,-0.129,0.056 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.343,0.186,0.5,-0.043,-0.117,0.023 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.285,0.6,-0.025,-0.11,0.066 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.486,0.329,0.643,-0.017,-0.102,0.068 FlowState,citras-fm,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.015,-0.101,0.076 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.543,0.386,0.7,0.026,-0.03,0.101 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.4,0.715,-0.013,-0.074,0.04 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.396,0.305,0.481 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.15,-0.243,-0.066 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.141,-0.228,-0.058 @@ -217,28 +233,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.071,-0.125,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.429,-0.075,-0.132,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.063,-0.11,-0.026 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.157,0.429,-0.071,-0.118,-0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.053,-0.102,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.329,0.214,0.457,-0.045,-0.086,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.042,-0.084,0.001 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.457,0.3,0.614,-0.027,-0.113,0.029 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.629,0.457,0.771,-0.04,-0.147,0.026 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.38,0.295,0.455 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.106,-0.189,-0.029 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.097,-0.186,-0.014 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.094,-0.187,-0.007 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.065,-0.151,0.026 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.042,-0.13,0.056 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.072,-0.123,-0.024 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.029,-0.109,0.07 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.033,-0.109,0.061 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.143,0.057,0.257,-0.022,-0.09,0.073 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.029,-0.088,0.042 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.004,-0.069,0.08 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.002,-0.069,0.093 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.429,0.285,0.6,0.013,-0.042,0.069 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.371,0.229,0.543,0.039,-0.026,0.128 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.404,0.308,0.497 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.854,-1.249,-0.542 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.84,-1.211,-0.534 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.835,-1.201,-0.534 @@ -249,9 +249,9 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.726,-1.021,-0.475 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.733,-1.04,-0.471 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.714,-0.976,-0.486 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.726,-1.009,-0.503 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.697,-0.991,-0.457 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.684,-0.93,-0.474 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.68,-0.958,-0.436 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.655,-0.926,-0.439 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.612,-0.834,-0.418 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.677,-0.986,-0.446 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WQL.csv index e16a137416fcf31ed581815082226d2f91e77c68..c63ab298ace0bb45878b0d3d9d7a648e2dd34b91 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.8,0.657,0.943,0.028,-0.013,0.065 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.067,0.026,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.084,0.021,0.149 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.071,0.009,0.123 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.086,0.023,0.143 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.108,0.048,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.107,0.024,0.179 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.104,0.026,0.17 @@ -25,6 +26,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.023,-0.034,0.07 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.062,0.025,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.079,0.022,0.138 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.066,0.014,0.109 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.081,0.02,0.129 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.104,0.043,0.157 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.771,0.628,0.914,0.102,0.01,0.183 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.099,0.025,0.164 @@ -41,6 +43,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.8,0.657,0.943,0.025,-0.024,0.067 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.064,0.025,0.109 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.08,0.021,0.142 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.068,0.013,0.116 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.083,0.02,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.105,0.045,0.164 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.104,0.017,0.18 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.101,0.026,0.168 @@ -57,6 +60,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.771,0.629,0.914,-0.001,-0.064,0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.039,0.013,0.063 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.056,0.01,0.1 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.043,-0.001,0.079 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.058,0.006,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.082,0.032,0.123 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.08,-0.008,0.16 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.077,0.014,0.129 @@ -73,6 +77,7 @@ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.686,0.543,0.857,-0.028,-0.106,0.029 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.013,-0.018,0.041 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.03,-0.003,0.065 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.686,0.542,0.829,0.017,-0.034,0.056 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.032,-0.002,0.065 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.056,0.019,0.089 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.055,-0.046,0.14 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.052,0.007,0.093 @@ -89,6 +94,7 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.049,-0.139,0.005 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.007,-0.031,0.016 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.01,-0.017,0.039 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.629,0.457,0.8,-0.003,-0.054,0.035 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.686,0.543,0.857,0.013,-0.032,0.044 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.037,0.006,0.063 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.036,-0.071,0.121 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.033,-0.017,0.075 @@ -105,6 +111,7 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.04,-0.01,0.106 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.629,0.485,0.771,0.057,0.003,0.132 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.044,-0.007,0.096 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.059,0.015,0.119 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.083,0.035,0.153 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.081,0.018,0.138 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.078,0.017,0.149 @@ -121,6 +128,7 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.042,-0.119,0.01 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.018,-0.016,0.048 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.004,-0.047,0.042 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.02,-0.015,0.049 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.857,0.044,0.011,0.074 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.043,-0.059,0.127 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.04,-0.012,0.081 @@ -137,6 +145,7 @@ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.371,0.229,0.515,-0.06,-0.153,-0.003 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.018,-0.051,0.016 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.4,0.743,-0.013,-0.054,0.021 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.657,0.514,0.8,0.002,-0.035,0.033 TiRex,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.027,0.003,0.048 TiRex,FlowState,0.657,0.514,0.8,0.026,-0.08,0.109 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.022,-0.007,0.047 @@ -153,12 +162,30 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.046,-0.106,0.007 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.004,-0.044,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.429,0.257,0.6,0.013,-0.021,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.016,-0.026,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.04,-0.001,0.086 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.629,0.471,0.786,0.039,-0.028,0.099 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.686,0.529,0.814,0.035,-0.001,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.019,-0.061,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.082,0.047,0.121 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.581,0.499,0.656 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.094,-0.167,-0.023 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.088,-0.148,-0.02 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.09,-0.159,-0.021 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.062,-0.109,-0.006 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.034,-0.069,0.002 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.314,0.143,0.457,-0.013,-0.046,0.031 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.063,-0.136,-0.015 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.02,-0.052,0.015 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.343,0.2,0.486,-0.002,-0.034,0.034 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.016,-0.058,0.025 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.025,-0.003,0.052 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.457,0.743,0.023,-0.076,0.099 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.457,0.771,0.02,-0.016,0.052 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.003,-0.105,0.07 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.068,0.024,0.11 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.575,0.489,0.652 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.122,-0.207,-0.051 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.116,-0.186,-0.045 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.118,-0.196,-0.047 @@ -169,6 +196,7 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.09,-0.18,-0.036 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.314,0.143,0.457,-0.046,-0.079,-0.011 citras-fm,TiRex,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.028,-0.051,-0.003 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.042,-0.094,0.001 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.025,-0.055,0.003 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,FlowState,0.629,0.457,0.772,-0.002,-0.111,0.082 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.005,-0.038,0.024 @@ -185,6 +213,7 @@ FlowState,Chronos-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.088,-0.161,-0.019 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.045,-0.146,0.056 FlowState,TiRex,0.343,0.2,0.486,-0.026,-0.123,0.074 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.371,0.214,0.529,-0.04,-0.11,0.028 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.257,0.543,-0.024,-0.11,0.071 FlowState,citras-fm,0.371,0.228,0.543,0.002,-0.089,0.1 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.457,0.3,0.614,-0.003,-0.091,0.091 @@ -201,6 +230,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.085,-0.175,-0.018 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.041,-0.088,0.012 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.023,-0.049,0.007 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.314,0.186,0.471,-0.037,-0.079,0.001 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.229,0.543,-0.021,-0.055,0.016 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.005,-0.025,0.036 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.543,0.386,0.7,0.003,-0.1,0.084 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -217,6 +247,7 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.066,-0.119,-0.019 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.024,-0.104,0.075 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.006,-0.078,0.094 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.019,-0.08,0.057 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.003,-0.076,0.095 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.429,0.286,0.6,0.022,-0.054,0.125 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.02,-0.033,0.077 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.257,0.571,0.017,-0.055,0.112 @@ -233,6 +264,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.14,-0.237,-0.066 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.094,-0.159,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.075,-0.122,-0.037 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.1,0.371,-0.09,-0.138,-0.049 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.072,-0.124,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.257,0.114,0.429,-0.046,-0.086,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.371,0.214,0.529,-0.048,-0.145,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.329,0.2,0.457,-0.051,-0.093,-0.02 @@ -249,6 +281,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.5,-2.081,-1.063 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.399,-1.95,-0.976 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.357,-1.845,-0.976 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.389,-1.909,-0.998 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.352,-1.877,-0.956 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.293,-1.788,-0.902 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.297,-1.82,-0.94 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.304,-1.774,-0.943 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 3157c19f8b1a48f229b19214bcd7d75d0caf386b..729a39488be5b77eaf412481249104e109000ad6 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,82.25446428571429,27.99390713883231,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.78571428571429,26.7317219556384,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.78125,26.534681339191103,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,74.66517857142857,26.288323340337783,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,72.87946428571429,26.313790788283832,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,72.20982142857143,25.71132197130257,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,70.98214285714286,26.27899613370557,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,66.29464285714286,22.090684936518613,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,65.73660714285714,22.563323248242327,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,63.05803571428571,24.3703980848735,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,56.25,22.971187048045326,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,55.80357142857143,22.202493106518684,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,52.23214285714286,22.107452063429612,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,50.83705357142857,20.7663634347118,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,50.0,21.607166213549956,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,47.71205357142857,20.291476627842265,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.252232142857146,13.4680243890007,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 -CatBoost,44.08482142857143,16.466986315536523,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,42.96875,15.511460150461742,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.1875,18.370018530095255,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 -TFT,38.895089285714285,16.528467051420602,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,38.560267857142854,11.681251245201373,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 -AutoETS,36.71875,6.371835454547458,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 -DeepAR,35.770089285714285,16.846504531563646,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 -PatchTST,28.683035714285715,13.144855820742507,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.0,5.9153801345410155,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.080357142857142,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.165178571428571,-41.376329526852395,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.151785714285714,-39.61909492922238,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.11206896551724,27.99390713883231,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.83189655172413,26.7317219556384,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.75431034482759,26.534681339191103,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,74.46120689655173,26.288323340337783,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.0603448275862,26.313790788283832,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,71.875,25.71132197130257,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.6896551724138,26.27899613370557,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,65.94827586206897,22.090684936518613,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,65.625,22.563323248242327,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,63.03879310344828,24.3703980848735,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,59.80603448275862,23.264820356639703,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,56.03448275862068,22.971187048045326,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,55.38793103448276,22.202493106518684,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.508620689655174,22.107452063429612,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.377155172413794,20.7663634347118,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,49.353448275862064,21.607166213549956,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,47.252155172413794,20.291476627842265,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,43.696120689655174,13.4680243890007,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 +CatBoost,43.42672413793103,16.466986315536523,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,42.564655172413794,15.511460150461742,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,41.702586206896555,18.370018530095255,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 +TFT,38.415948275862064,16.528467051420602,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,37.877155172413794,11.681251245201373,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 +AutoETS,36.314655172413794,6.371835454547458,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 +DeepAR,35.290948275862064,16.846504531563646,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 +PatchTST,28.23275862068966,13.144855820742507,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.568965517241377,5.9153801345410155,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.67241379310345,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.068965517241379,-41.376329526852395,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.051724137931034,-39.61909492922238,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 73d22b4a0def55316920e6b223504a552a63c9b0..00d33a49a82461083a9b29be96a4eb3c59579caf 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.93303571428571,37.0339598769268,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,79.79910714285714,35.379913871741486,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.57589285714286,35.75175890481369,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.45982142857143,35.627348248727685,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.89732142857143,35.286196090295455,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.89285714285714,35.01369078500964,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.10267857142857,34.92408244319366,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.63392857142857,33.843246413499806,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,66.96428571428571,32.682760506952434,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,64.0625,30.464806712356275,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,60.49107142857143,32.38738295255295,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,58.92857142857143,31.310808520029475,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.80357142857143,31.530105413500053,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.40848214285714,30.12432270033647,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,54.01785714285714,31.209124473024797,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,50.27901785714286,28.97697911952871,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,43.136160714285715,16.567011147038457,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 -TFT,41.85267857142857,23.706570356059153,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,40.234375,18.030570877700292,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 -DeepAR,38.950892857142854,23.555355495413068,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 -AutoETS,33.59375,-36.16184103810849,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 -Sundial-Base,33.25892857142857,22.91486952517109,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,32.75669642857143,20.15355435692837,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,23.549107142857142,9.552459340446495,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,22.098214285714285,8.517838561728631,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,21.763392857142858,-4.510352730031664,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.912946428571427,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.825892857142858,-74.23187160698073,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.816964285714286,-74.54960384295045,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,84.69827586206897,37.0339598769268,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,79.63362068965517,35.379913871741486,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,79.52586206896551,35.75175890481369,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.34051724137932,35.627348248727685,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.9396551724138,35.286196090295455,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.64655172413794,35.01369078500964,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,72.95258620689656,34.92408244319366,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,67.45689655172413,33.843246413499806,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,66.91810344827587,32.682760506952434,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,63.685344827586206,30.464806712356275,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.775862068965516,32.136773681145826,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.021551724137936,32.38738295255295,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,58.51293103448276,31.310808520029475,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,55.064655172413794,31.530105413500053,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,54.040948275862064,30.12432270033647,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,53.44827586206896,31.209124473024797,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,49.622844827586206,28.97697911952871,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,42.29525862068966,16.567011147038457,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 +TFT,41.16379310344828,23.706570356059153,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,39.49353448275862,18.030570877700292,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 +DeepAR,38.577586206896555,23.555355495413068,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 +AutoETS,33.081896551724135,-36.16184103810849,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 +Sundial-Base,32.650862068965516,22.91486952517109,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,32.27370689655172,20.15355435692837,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,23.060344827586206,9.552459340446495,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,21.65948275862069,8.517838561728631,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,21.336206896551722,-4.510352730031664,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.618534482758623,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.775862068965516,-74.23187160698073,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.72844827586207,-74.54960384295045,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 77113ff588dff20ca72df2d6bc3497bb75711460..f811760c72c520437dc2385cef075e95585177d9 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,79.6875,31.574899293883963,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.57589285714286,30.224981323893342,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.22767857142857,29.905280904300813,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.89285714285714,30.83324417879393,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,74.55357142857143,29.714765414268427,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,72.87946428571429,29.650904955748313,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.53571428571429,29.22524679854486,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.96875,27.214867518163455,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,66.40625,30.09959363932445,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,64.39732142857143,28.604848057546317,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,60.04464285714286,28.084851702342426,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.92857142857143,28.793683286196813,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.68303571428571,25.577740272044245,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.51116071428571,25.40621225271993,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,49.107142857142854,24.679707504856008,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,48.38169642857143,23.058536180274736,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,41.908482142857146,17.727727626633715,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 -Sundial-Base,41.183035714285715,20.448180173908913,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,39.732142857142854,18.76505901842784,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,39.39732142857143,19.037255796555574,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 -TFT,38.560267857142854,18.373603116607807,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,37.890625,15.505959555026772,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 -AutoETS,34.933035714285715,2.3580411343619434,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 -DeepAR,32.198660714285715,17.802230426242115,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 -PatchTST,28.57142857142857,14.865163123427871,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.995535714285715,10.33674396649873,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.857142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.723214285714285,-19.83598592543119,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.267857142857142,-21.496080116325867,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.84913793103449,31.574899293883963,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.63362068965517,30.224981323893342,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.40086206896551,29.905280904300813,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.64655172413794,30.83324417879393,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,75.0,29.714765414268427,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,72.73706896551724,29.650904955748313,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.36637931034483,29.22524679854486,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.67241379310344,27.214867518163455,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,66.05603448275862,30.09959363932445,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.33189655172413,28.604848057546317,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,59.48275862068966,28.084851702342426,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,58.728448275862064,24.95874087832228,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.51293103448276,28.793683286196813,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,53.23275862068966,25.577740272044245,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,52.316810344827594,25.40621225271993,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.491379310344826,24.679707504856008,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,47.89870689655172,23.058536180274736,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,41.325431034482754,17.727727626633715,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 +Sundial-Base,40.84051724137931,20.448180173908913,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,39.224137931034484,18.76505901842784,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,38.900862068965516,19.037255796555574,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 +TFT,37.877155172413794,18.373603116607807,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,37.122844827586206,15.505959555026772,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 +AutoETS,34.59051724137931,2.3580411343619434,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 +DeepAR,31.627155172413797,17.802230426242115,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 +PatchTST,28.23275862068966,14.865163123427871,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.599137931034484,10.33674396649873,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.564655172413794,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.607758620689655,-19.83598592543119,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.129310344827585,-21.496080116325867,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 8946fad04472c237461c7573fc41e73592d73308..d80314e38d0832754e62655ba2f7320ed1af4156 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,30 +1,31 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,82.92410714285714,40.84628843868441,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.46875,39.45397727376795,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.46428571428571,39.19637123849717,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,78.79464285714286,40.103157974569356,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.89285714285714,38.92296866055266,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.54910714285714,38.74983094426454,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.32589285714286,38.69064615813591,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.42410714285714,37.13611033754862,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,68.19196428571429,38.14902775423167,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,64.73214285714286,38.4407958273131,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,62.94642857142857,37.15125331658222,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.71875,37.558463928192396,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,54.79910714285714,35.31379800866229,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.296875,34.89047194343375,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.45535714285714,34.8855731220096,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,50.27901785714286,32.600897327995895,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 -TFT,42.410714285714285,26.128622094569508,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,41.796875,19.950951239142245,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 -AutoARIMA,39.78794642857143,21.949127392355493,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 -DeepAR,34.933035714285715,24.48504899458338,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 -AutoETS,33.035714285714285,-38.32028900670734,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 -Sundial-Base,32.36607142857143,25.64948000353725,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,31.529017857142854,22.348910021170553,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,24.21875,12.786321977838044,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,23.995535714285715,13.078551918444692,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.325892857142858,3.0725928218514276,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.247767857142858,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 -Drift,11.272321428571429,-53.83576239004797,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.816964285714286,-57.89006471235225,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.1896551724138,40.84628843868441,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.38793103448276,39.45397727376795,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,79.74137931034483,39.19637123849717,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,78.44827586206897,40.103157974569356,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.1853448275862,38.92296866055266,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,73.38362068965517,38.74983094426454,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.16810344827587,38.69064615813591,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,70.25862068965517,37.13611033754862,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,68.42672413793103,38.14902775423167,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,64.4396551724138,38.4407958273131,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,62.71551724137932,37.15125331658222,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.206896551724135,37.558463928192396,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.23706896551724,34.520061529863874,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.310344827586206,35.31379800866229,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,53.7176724137931,34.89047194343375,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.724137931034484,34.8855731220096,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,49.730603448275865,32.600897327995895,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 +TFT,41.487068965517246,26.128622094569508,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,41.002155172413794,19.950951239142245,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 +AutoARIMA,39.0625,21.949127392355493,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 +DeepAR,33.94396551724138,24.48504899458338,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 +AutoETS,32.758620689655174,-38.32028900670734,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 +Sundial-Base,31.573275862068968,25.64948000353725,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,30.98060344827586,22.348910021170553,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,23.70689655172414,12.786321977838044,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,23.49137931034483,13.078551918444692,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,22.844827586206897,3.0725928218514276,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.941810344827587,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 +Drift,11.206896551724139,-53.83576239004797,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.72844827586207,-57.89006471235225,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_MASE.csv index a0cd1f880dbe0fd3346380258f9787fb1fbdae71..61d7fec51e2ac9f557051bf1ebe774df10dac84a 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -4,254 +4,254 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.531,0.375,0.719,0.017,-0.014,0.049 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.02,-0.008,0.05 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.023,-0.005,0.058 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.023,-0.005,0.053 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.031,0.01,0.054 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.023,0.001,0.046 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.031,0.01,0.054 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.656,0.469,0.812,0.076,0.004,0.172 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.656,0.469,0.812,0.07,0.026,0.133 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.048,0.019,0.081 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.062,0.027,0.097 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.065,0.025,0.127 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.074,0.03,0.137 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.076,0.041,0.114 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.091,0.051,0.136 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.081,0.049,0.119 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.239,0.322 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.469,0.281,0.625,-0.018,-0.051,0.014 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.003,-0.005,0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.594,0.438,0.781,0.006,-0.027,0.042 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.688,0.53,0.844,0.006,-0.003,0.016 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.014,-0.019,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.006,-0.027,0.034 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.014,-0.019,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.06,-0.029,0.176 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.054,-0.008,0.134 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.031,0.012,0.052 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.045,0.017,0.074 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.876,0.049,-0.015,0.125 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.058,-0.01,0.142 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.059,0.025,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.075,0.018,0.137 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.065,0.038,0.093 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.267,0.223,0.311 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.02,-0.052,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.003,-0.012,0.005 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.003,-0.028,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.003,-0.007,0.012 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.594,0.438,0.751,0.011,-0.021,0.04 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.437,0.75,0.003,-0.029,0.031 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.594,0.438,0.751,0.011,-0.021,0.04 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.057,-0.029,0.17 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.051,-0.006,0.125 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.781,0.625,0.907,0.029,0.011,0.045 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.876,0.043,0.014,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.046,-0.012,0.117 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.056,-0.01,0.132 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.057,0.023,0.097 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.073,0.018,0.132 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.844,0.719,0.938,0.063,0.037,0.089 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.265,0.222,0.308 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.024,-0.062,0.005 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.406,0.219,0.562,-0.006,-0.044,0.027 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.003,-0.037,0.027 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.469,0.281,0.656,-0.0,-0.035,0.029 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.008,-0.015,0.026 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.0,-0.034,0.027 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.008,-0.015,0.026 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.054,-0.01,0.145 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.048,0.002,0.106 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.688,0.53,0.844,0.025,-0.001,0.053 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.039,-0.002,0.081 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.043,-0.004,0.1 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.053,-0.004,0.11 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.054,0.015,0.09 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.07,0.027,0.113 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.06,0.034,0.086 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.875,1.0,0.263,0.213,0.309 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.023,-0.056,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.312,0.156,0.47,-0.006,-0.016,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.003,-0.012,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.531,0.344,0.719,0.0,-0.03,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.008,-0.022,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.0,-0.033,0.027 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.008,-0.022,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.054,-0.031,0.165 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.405,0.719,0.048,-0.009,0.125 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.026,0.01,0.042 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.04,0.012,0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.043,-0.015,0.116 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.876,0.053,-0.013,0.131 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.054,0.02,0.092 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.07,0.014,0.129 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.06,0.037,0.084 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.263,0.22,0.307 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.032,-0.057,-0.01 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.014,-0.047,0.019 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.249,0.562,-0.011,-0.041,0.02 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.008,-0.027,0.014 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.008,-0.037,0.022 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.008,-0.029,0.01 -TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.312,0.656,0.046,-0.019,0.141 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.041,-0.001,0.102 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.018,-0.01,0.049 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.036,-0.009,0.098 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.045,-0.004,0.105 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.046,0.014,0.081 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.062,0.021,0.106 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.052,0.024,0.083 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.215,0.302 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.024,-0.048,-0.001 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.006,-0.036,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.563,-0.003,-0.032,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.0,-0.028,0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.0,-0.028,0.032 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.008,-0.01,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.008,-0.01,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.054,-0.02,0.161 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.048,0.003,0.117 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.562,0.406,0.75,0.025,-0.009,0.061 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.039,0.01,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.043,-0.008,0.115 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.052,-0.0,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.054,0.016,0.094 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.07,0.023,0.12 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.06,0.022,0.1 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.263,0.219,0.308 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.032,-0.057,-0.01 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.014,-0.047,0.019 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.249,0.562,-0.011,-0.041,0.02 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.008,-0.027,0.014 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.008,-0.037,0.022 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.008,-0.029,0.01 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.312,0.656,0.046,-0.019,0.141 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.041,-0.001,0.102 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.018,-0.01,0.049 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.032,-0.001,0.064 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.036,-0.009,0.098 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.045,-0.004,0.105 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.046,0.014,0.081 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.062,0.021,0.106 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.215,0.302 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.082,-0.208,-0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.063,-0.213,0.028 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.06,-0.205,0.028 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.057,-0.17,0.01 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.057,-0.197,0.03 -FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.344,0.688,-0.049,-0.164,0.018 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.057,-0.192,0.02 +FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.344,0.688,-0.049,-0.164,0.018 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.375,0.719,-0.006,-0.062,0.039 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.562,0.406,0.719,-0.03,-0.159,0.048 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.562,0.406,0.719,-0.015,-0.158,0.071 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.438,0.781,-0.011,-0.07,0.031 FlowState,citras-fm,0.656,0.5,0.812,-0.001,-0.058,0.048 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.719,0.562,0.875,-0.0,-0.124,0.082 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.017,-0.07,0.08 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.006,-0.116,0.081 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.221,0.111,0.294 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.075,-0.153,-0.026 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.057,-0.154,0.008 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.054,-0.143,0.006 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.051,-0.118,-0.002 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.438,0.281,0.595,-0.051,-0.143,0.009 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.042,-0.113,0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.05,-0.132,-0.003 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.042,-0.113,0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.625,0.006,-0.041,0.059 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.024,-0.105,0.033 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.625,0.469,0.781,-0.009,-0.097,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.406,0.75,-0.005,-0.031,0.02 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.005,-0.026,0.033 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.782,0.006,-0.078,0.065 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.023,-0.031,0.074 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.656,0.5,0.844,0.012,-0.064,0.067 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.226,0.148,0.281 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.05,-0.088,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.032,-0.055,-0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.093,0.375,-0.029,-0.048,-0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.47,-0.026,-0.056,0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.026,-0.043,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.018,-0.051,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.438,0.25,0.594,-0.026,-0.065,0.009 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.018,-0.051,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.594,0.029,-0.051,0.137 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.023,-0.034,0.095 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.014,-0.02,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.018,-0.039,0.085 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.028,-0.037,0.102 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.029,-0.004,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.045,-0.01,0.104 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.035,0.02,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.244,0.198,0.288 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.066,-0.107,-0.027 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.047,-0.08,-0.017 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.124,0.406,-0.045,-0.076,-0.015 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.041,-0.088,0.002 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.041,-0.074,-0.013 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.041,-0.075,-0.01 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.033,-0.069,0.001 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.594,0.015,-0.077,0.136 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.375,0.219,0.531,0.009,-0.052,0.089 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.015,-0.054,0.019 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.004,-0.061,0.086 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.014,-0.049,0.095 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.015,-0.021,0.055 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.032,-0.025,0.092 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.233,0.182,0.283 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.07,-0.146,-0.025 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.124,0.406,-0.051,-0.143,0.015 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.049,-0.133,0.012 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.045,-0.111,0.004 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.045,-0.131,0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.037,-0.109,0.009 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.045,-0.13,0.008 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.037,-0.109,0.009 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.406,0.219,0.562,0.011,-0.032,0.065 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.406,0.25,0.594,0.005,-0.02,0.03 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.019,-0.093,0.037 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.004,-0.094,0.058 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.01,-0.021,0.042 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.011,-0.074,0.074 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.343,0.688,0.028,-0.025,0.081 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.017,-0.055,0.07 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.23,0.155,0.283 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.08,-0.159,-0.031 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.062,-0.166,0.01 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.059,-0.152,0.01 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.055,-0.124,0.004 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.124,0.406,-0.056,-0.15,0.013 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.047,-0.117,0.004 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.055,-0.141,0.0 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.047,-0.117,0.004 citras-fm,FlowState,0.344,0.188,0.5,0.001,-0.05,0.055 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.005,-0.034,0.026 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.029,-0.114,0.036 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.014,-0.105,0.047 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.01,-0.044,0.021 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.468,0.781,0.001,-0.086,0.063 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.018,-0.029,0.062 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.008,-0.073,0.07 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.222,0.138,0.289 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.082,-0.129,-0.043 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.344,-0.063,-0.106,-0.026 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.344,-0.06,-0.107,-0.023 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.057,-0.099,-0.016 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.057,-0.101,-0.02 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.049,-0.089,-0.014 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.057,-0.103,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.049,-0.089,-0.014 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.281,0.125,0.438,0.0,-0.09,0.11 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.375,0.218,0.531,-0.006,-0.07,0.072 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.03,-0.07,0.004 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.015,-0.058,0.021 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.011,-0.08,0.069 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.375,0.219,0.532,-0.001,-0.067,0.08 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.469,0.281,0.656,0.017,-0.041,0.077 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.006,-0.028,0.037 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.221,0.174,0.269 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.1,-0.158,-0.054 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.081,-0.159,-0.018 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.079,-0.152,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.075,-0.127,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.075,-0.148,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.067,-0.119,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.075,-0.136,-0.023 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.067,-0.119,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.017,-0.086,0.065 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.023,-0.08,0.03 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.048,-0.116,0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.033,-0.101,0.025 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.312,0.657,-0.029,-0.088,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.018,-0.066,0.029 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.531,0.344,0.719,-0.017,-0.083,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.011,-0.072,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.844,0.719,0.938,0.208,0.137,0.269 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.089,-0.135,-0.051 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.07,-0.103,-0.039 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.156,0.062,0.281,-0.067,-0.097,-0.038 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.064,-0.095,-0.035 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.064,-0.092,-0.038 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.055,-0.091,-0.024 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.063,-0.111,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.006,-0.088,0.104 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.344,0.156,0.5,-0.012,-0.072,0.06 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.037,-0.054,-0.021 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.018,-0.076,0.052 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.008,-0.075,0.068 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.006,-0.038,0.027 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.011,-0.045,0.067 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.216,0.169,0.263 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.476,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.365,-0.452,-0.287 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.361,-0.446,-0.285 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.031,0.0,0.125,-0.357,-0.448,-0.271 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.357,-0.444,-0.281 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.433,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.356,-0.445,-0.28 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.433,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.284,-0.416,-0.124 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.291,-0.391,-0.174 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.322,-0.404,-0.246 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.303,-0.394,-0.223 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.298,-0.395,-0.183 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.285,-0.407,-0.16 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.284,-0.367,-0.21 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.156,0.062,0.281,-0.262,-0.369,-0.159 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.276,-0.356,-0.203 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_SQL.csv index d2cf06612378cc0017a20df048a40b9b8b029b68..c84c901824bff75ddbce4c0bf1622cb9d67a6142 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -9,11 +9,11 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.656,0.499,0.812,0.032,0.01,0.054 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.781,0.625,0.938,0.065,0.031,0.101 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.048,0.021,0.079 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.094,0.024,0.189 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.072,0.038,0.107 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.069,0.039,0.105 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.083,0.039,0.14 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.08,0.047,0.117 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.099,0.058,0.144 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.085,0.054,0.119 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.327,0.414 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.406,0.25,0.563,-0.02,-0.052,0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -25,11 +25,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.013,-0.021,0.041 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.046,-0.002,0.102 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.029,0.01,0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.076,-0.01,0.188 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.053,0.023,0.083 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.05,-0.0,0.106 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.812,0.687,0.938,0.065,-0.003,0.145 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.062,0.029,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.081,0.019,0.145 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.066,0.039,0.093 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.358,0.303,0.406 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.026,-0.063,0.001 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.531,0.375,0.719,-0.006,-0.046,0.028 @@ -41,11 +41,11 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.312,0.688,0.007,-0.029,0.037 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.04,-0.001,0.079 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.023,-0.004,0.05 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.071,0.007,0.158 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.048,0.005,0.089 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.044,0.004,0.08 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.059,0.005,0.114 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.056,0.022,0.089 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.075,0.032,0.116 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.061,0.035,0.087 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.305,0.399 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.022,-0.054,0.005 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.562,0.406,0.719,-0.002,-0.011,0.006 @@ -57,11 +57,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.437,0.75,0.011,-0.021,0.04 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.044,-0.0,0.094 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.027,0.01,0.043 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.074,-0.009,0.182 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.051,0.021,0.082 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.048,0.003,0.098 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.063,-0.003,0.136 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.06,0.027,0.097 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.938,0.079,0.022,0.139 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.064,0.039,0.089 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.356,0.303,0.402 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.406,0.219,0.594,-0.028,-0.059,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.007,-0.018,0.003 @@ -73,11 +73,11 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.006,-0.029,0.034 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.039,-0.006,0.09 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.022,0.007,0.038 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.069,-0.013,0.177 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.046,0.015,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.043,-0.004,0.094 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.058,-0.009,0.133 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.055,0.02,0.091 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.074,0.014,0.135 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.059,0.035,0.084 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.353,0.3,0.401 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.032,-0.057,-0.011 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.011,-0.045,0.021 @@ -89,11 +89,11 @@ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.001,-0.021,0.022 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.035,-0.001,0.072 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.018,-0.009,0.047 TiRex,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.065,0.002,0.156 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.042,0.009,0.079 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.039,0.003,0.081 TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.054,0.004,0.113 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.051,0.021,0.083 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.07,0.027,0.113 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.055,0.028,0.085 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.303,0.394 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.501,-0.034,-0.057,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.013,-0.043,0.021 @@ -105,11 +105,11 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.033,-0.0,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.016,-0.018,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.719,0.562,0.844,0.064,-0.011,0.169 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.688,0.5,0.844,0.041,0.012,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.038,-0.002,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.053,0.001,0.118 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.05,0.016,0.088 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.069,0.022,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.054,0.015,0.094 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.349,0.302,0.398 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.219,0.062,0.375,-0.069,-0.112,-0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.048,-0.114,0.002 @@ -121,11 +121,11 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.034,-0.08,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.018,-0.069,0.029 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.032,-0.028,0.106 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.008,-0.051,0.055 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.004,-0.023,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.02,-0.019,0.058 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.017,-0.042,0.068 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.037,-0.007,0.083 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.021,-0.028,0.065 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.277,0.375 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.051,-0.085,-0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.03,-0.052,-0.011 @@ -137,11 +137,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.017,-0.056,0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.017,-0.03,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.049,-0.027,0.151 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.025,-0.009,0.062 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.022,-0.024,0.068 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.037,-0.027,0.108 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.034,0.004,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.053,-0.003,0.112 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.038,0.024,0.053 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.338,0.284,0.386 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.104,-0.233,-0.024 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.082,-0.231,0.01 @@ -153,12 +153,28 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.281,0.156,0.438,-0.069,-0.203,0.011 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.033,-0.119,0.027 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.051,-0.178,0.026 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.025,-0.163,0.065 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.438,0.75,-0.028,-0.114,0.028 FlowState,citras-fm,0.469,0.281,0.656,-0.012,-0.078,0.042 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.812,-0.016,-0.139,0.067 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.005,-0.082,0.066 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.562,0.405,0.719,-0.011,-0.128,0.062 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.305,0.215,0.368 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.078,-0.119,-0.039 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.056,-0.09,-0.024 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.05,-0.098,-0.005 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.054,-0.089,-0.022 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.049,-0.085,-0.015 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.044,-0.085,-0.009 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.5,-0.043,-0.076,-0.012 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.008,-0.058,0.049 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.026,-0.066,0.009 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.024,-0.07,0.14 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.004,-0.057,0.057 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.012,-0.05,0.089 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.009,-0.026,0.044 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.029,-0.027,0.089 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.321,0.262,0.378 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.074,-0.118,-0.041 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.052,-0.119,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.046,-0.087,-0.004 @@ -169,11 +185,11 @@ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.039,-0.095,0.002 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.004,-0.033,0.023 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.022,-0.073,0.024 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.406,0.25,0.562,0.028,-0.028,0.102 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.004,-0.06,0.054 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.016,-0.025,0.055 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.469,0.281,0.656,0.013,-0.045,0.066 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.531,0.375,0.719,0.032,-0.011,0.08 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.017,-0.032,0.061 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.875,1.0,0.324,0.275,0.369 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.091,-0.163,-0.04 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.313,-0.069,-0.17,0.003 @@ -185,11 +201,11 @@ citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.056,-0.134,-0.001 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.02,-0.062,0.019 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.038,-0.121,0.026 citras-fm,FlowState,0.531,0.344,0.719,0.012,-0.044,0.072 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.012,-0.097,0.048 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.016,-0.059,0.024 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.562,0.375,0.719,-0.003,-0.085,0.059 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.017,-0.025,0.056 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.001,-0.077,0.062 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.313,0.245,0.374 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.087,-0.133,-0.049 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.066,-0.107,-0.03 @@ -201,11 +217,11 @@ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.052,-0.096,-0.016 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.017,-0.073,0.04 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.035,-0.07,-0.004 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.375,0.188,0.531,0.015,-0.072,0.122 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.009,-0.046,0.025 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.719,-0.013,-0.071,0.043 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.438,0.281,0.625,0.003,-0.063,0.078 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.02,-0.038,0.079 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.469,0.312,0.626,0.005,-0.026,0.032 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.315,0.26,0.365 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.11,-0.169,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.088,-0.17,-0.019 @@ -217,28 +233,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.074,-0.134,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.038,-0.09,0.006 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.056,-0.127,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.005,-0.071,0.076 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.03,-0.098,0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.469,0.281,0.625,-0.033,-0.087,0.01 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.017,-0.06,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.021,-0.086,0.037 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.312,0.688,-0.016,-0.077,0.039 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.301,0.243,0.36 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.093,-0.135,-0.057 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.071,-0.103,-0.041 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.065,-0.095,-0.036 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.069,-0.097,-0.04 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.063,-0.091,-0.037 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.059,-0.093,-0.029 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.057,-0.103,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.022,-0.07,0.027 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.04,-0.055,-0.025 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.595,0.011,-0.066,0.114 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.017,-0.064,0.031 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.001,-0.066,0.071 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.531,0.374,0.688,-0.005,-0.033,0.026 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.312,0.688,0.016,-0.041,0.071 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.312,0.258,0.361 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.706,-0.485 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.556,-0.683,-0.435 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-0.663,-0.439 @@ -249,9 +249,9 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.537,-0.66,-0.432 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.486,-0.601,-0.382 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.512,-0.629,-0.397 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.438,-0.583,-0.274 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.474,-0.608,-0.354 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.031,0.0,0.125,-0.479,-0.584,-0.38 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.456,-0.598,-0.324 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.46,-0.576,-0.351 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.431,-0.562,-0.321 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.454,-0.566,-0.348 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv index c05babd89c842c4d8b719edd555513dda4d675cd..3ac2caacebb70b2e12b7e50732ef4ca173d03622 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -10,10 +10,10 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.688,0.5,0.844,0.041,-0.009,0.095 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.719,0.562,0.844,0.002,-0.064,0.053 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.023,-0.007,0.048 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.02,-0.038,0.064 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.07,0.029,0.121 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.03,-0.015,0.069 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.062,0.027,0.101 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.065,0.015,0.109 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.074,0.038,0.11 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.302,0.236,0.361 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.312,0.656,0.019,-0.007,0.047 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -26,10 +26,10 @@ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.06,0.016,0.105 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.021,-0.04,0.067 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.042,0.004,0.078 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.039,-0.013,0.076 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.088,0.047,0.137 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.049,0.022,0.078 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.081,0.043,0.123 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.083,0.049,0.122 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.092,0.054,0.133 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.316,0.255,0.374 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.005,-0.012,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.343,0.656,-0.024,-0.056,0.003 @@ -42,10 +42,10 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.037,-0.018,0.094 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,-0.003,-0.074,0.053 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.018,-0.016,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.016,-0.049,0.063 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.066,0.026,0.118 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.025,-0.023,0.067 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.058,0.022,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.06,0.011,0.106 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.069,0.032,0.104 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.299,0.229,0.362 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.007,-0.018,0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.027,-0.058,0.001 @@ -58,10 +58,10 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.034,-0.017,0.086 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,-0.006,-0.07,0.046 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.016,-0.012,0.038 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.013,-0.046,0.059 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.063,0.025,0.112 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.023,-0.022,0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.625,0.938,0.056,0.019,0.095 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.058,0.012,0.101 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.067,0.032,0.098 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.297,0.23,0.358 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.375,0.219,0.531,0.009,-0.023,0.046 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.011,-0.056,0.033 @@ -74,10 +74,10 @@ TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.531,0.374,0.688,0.05,-0.013,0.112 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.01,-0.034,0.052 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.031,0.004,0.063 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.029,-0.02,0.072 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.078,0.018,0.148 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.038,-0.016,0.085 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.071,0.033,0.111 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.938,0.073,0.022,0.126 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.082,0.049,0.118 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.24,0.374 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.008,-0.037,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.406,0.219,0.562,-0.028,-0.056,-0.003 @@ -90,10 +90,10 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.033,-0.01,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,-0.006,-0.063,0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.015,-0.023,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.012,-0.041,0.056 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.688,0.53,0.844,0.063,0.017,0.116 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.022,-0.014,0.05 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.055,0.012,0.097 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.057,0.019,0.099 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.066,0.025,0.108 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.297,0.235,0.356 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.014,-0.039,0.011 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.034,-0.063,-0.009 @@ -106,10 +106,10 @@ TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.028,-0.022,0.079 TiRex,FlowState,0.531,0.375,0.719,-0.013,-0.064,0.027 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.009,-0.02,0.038 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.006,-0.047,0.047 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.057,0.014,0.111 TiRex,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.016,-0.021,0.047 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.049,0.016,0.083 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.051,0.014,0.089 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.06,0.029,0.093 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.292,0.228,0.352 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.312,0.156,0.5,-0.043,-0.105,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.064,-0.117,-0.016 @@ -122,10 +122,10 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.041,-0.112,0.013 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.019,-0.083,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.406,0.75,-0.022,-0.071,0.018 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.03,-0.019,0.078 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,-0.012,-0.072,0.04 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.022,-0.039,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.024,-0.023,0.07 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.594,0.876,0.034,-0.025,0.089 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.272,0.223,0.317 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.281,0.156,0.438,-0.002,-0.056,0.061 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.022,-0.072,0.039 @@ -138,10 +138,10 @@ FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.04,-0.013,0.101 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.312,0.656,0.021,-0.022,0.065 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.018,-0.017,0.05 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.069,0.003,0.153 FlowState,citras-fm,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.028,-0.025,0.09 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.061,0.005,0.117 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.063,0.01,0.12 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.072,0.023,0.122 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.301,0.235,0.366 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.023,-0.05,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.043,-0.084,-0.004 @@ -154,10 +154,10 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.019,-0.033,0.077 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.344,0.688,-0.021,-0.069,0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.562,0.406,0.719,-0.003,-0.049,0.039 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.049,0.001,0.107 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.007,-0.049,0.058 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.656,0.938,0.041,0.011,0.075 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.043,-0.003,0.085 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.844,0.719,0.938,0.052,0.034,0.07 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.286,0.222,0.35 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.021,-0.068,0.037 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.041,-0.082,0.013 @@ -170,11 +170,27 @@ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.406,0.25,0.594,0.022,-0.018,0.066 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.019,-0.052,0.017 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.438,0.281,0.594,0.003,-0.04,0.047 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.051,-0.015,0.124 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.01,-0.041,0.069 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.531,0.374,0.719,0.043,-0.011,0.102 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.045,-0.005,0.103 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.055,0.01,0.104 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.233,0.341 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.075,-0.137,-0.03 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.097,-0.158,-0.049 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.071,-0.134,-0.027 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.068,-0.126,-0.025 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.085,-0.174,-0.018 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.47,-0.067,-0.131,-0.018 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.06,-0.125,-0.014 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.031,-0.085,0.019 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.074,-0.181,-0.003 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.051,-0.12,-0.001 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.054,-0.141,0.015 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.562,0.406,0.75,-0.043,-0.108,0.01 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.594,0.438,0.75,-0.008,-0.065,0.042 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.006,-0.047,0.031 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.25,0.184,0.313 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.031,-0.074,0.015 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.219,0.094,0.344,-0.051,-0.085,-0.023 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.026,-0.072,0.022 @@ -186,10 +202,10 @@ citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.125,0.406,0.012,-0.042,0.067 citras-fm,FlowState,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.029,-0.098,0.024 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.007,-0.062,0.046 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.01,-0.074,0.04 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.438,0.25,0.594,0.042,-0.01,0.098 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.034,-0.018,0.086 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.562,0.405,0.719,0.036,0.005,0.072 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.719,0.562,0.844,0.045,-0.007,0.097 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.281,0.208,0.352 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.067,-0.112,-0.028 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.088,-0.14,-0.045 @@ -202,10 +218,10 @@ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.022,-0.091,0.038 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.065,-0.132,-0.006 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.219,0.062,0.344,-0.042,-0.081,-0.011 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.469,0.281,0.626,-0.045,-0.114,0.011 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.406,0.25,0.562,0.008,-0.043,0.061 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.035,-0.094,0.017 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.531,0.344,0.719,0.002,-0.041,0.04 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.012,-0.022,0.039 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.256,0.185,0.321 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.069,-0.122,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.09,-0.139,-0.052 @@ -218,27 +234,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.025,-0.075,0.022 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.067,-0.136,-0.01 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.045,-0.093,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.048,-0.115,0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.006,-0.032,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.438,0.281,0.595,-0.037,-0.077,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.469,0.281,0.656,-0.002,-0.042,0.039 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.469,0.281,0.626,0.01,-0.029,0.051 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.254,0.188,0.321 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.079,-0.123,-0.04 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.101,-0.154,-0.058 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.075,-0.116,-0.033 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.072,-0.108,-0.033 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.089,-0.134,-0.052 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.071,-0.121,-0.025 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.064,-0.102,-0.03 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.124,0.406,-0.035,-0.097,0.025 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.078,-0.139,-0.024 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.156,0.062,0.281,-0.055,-0.075,-0.035 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.058,-0.116,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.281,0.156,0.438,-0.047,-0.107,0.007 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.012,-0.04,0.021 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.531,0.374,0.719,-0.01,-0.053,0.028 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.247,0.182,0.311 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.433,-0.565,-0.309 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.461,-0.597,-0.342 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.427,-0.567,-0.296 @@ -250,8 +250,8 @@ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.374,-0.465,-0.287 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.431,-0.577,-0.306 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.401,-0.539,-0.285 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.517,-0.303 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.333,-0.456,-0.225 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.391,-0.544,-0.263 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.344,-0.473,-0.226 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.341,-0.472,-0.231 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.328,-0.452,-0.223 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WQL.csv index 03fafd792d94b9e276f7a4a5adacfd634717211b..ca2bfa69d4eb72f1575192a5bb5065468781bc37 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -11,9 +11,9 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.044,0.006,0.078 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.039,-0.02,0.086 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.053,0.011,0.085 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.059,0.028,0.095 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.097,0.055,0.142 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.086,0.05,0.125 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.091,0.057,0.13 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.092,0.051,0.131 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.408,0.346,0.462 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.312,0.688,-0.024,-0.052,0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -27,9 +27,9 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.021,-0.009,0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.016,-0.049,0.068 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.03,-0.017,0.069 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.037,-0.01,0.08 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.075,0.031,0.125 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.064,0.03,0.101 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.07,0.022,0.114 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.07,0.032,0.105 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.395,0.323,0.452 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.028,-0.06,-0.001 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.004,-0.016,0.005 @@ -43,9 +43,9 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.017,-0.02,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.719,0.562,0.844,0.012,-0.061,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.026,-0.03,0.071 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.033,-0.017,0.078 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.071,0.029,0.122 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.06,0.025,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.066,0.017,0.114 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.066,0.022,0.101 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.392,0.315,0.453 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.406,0.219,0.562,-0.013,-0.056,0.029 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.28,0.594,0.011,-0.02,0.046 @@ -59,9 +59,9 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.032,0.006,0.064 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.027,-0.016,0.068 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.041,-0.005,0.082 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.047,-0.008,0.097 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.085,0.024,0.158 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.074,0.039,0.112 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.08,0.031,0.131 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.08,0.048,0.115 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.333,0.462 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.033,-0.063,-0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.009,-0.019,0.001 @@ -75,9 +75,9 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.013,-0.014,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.008,-0.055,0.059 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.022,-0.029,0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.028,-0.018,0.075 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.067,0.025,0.117 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.056,0.02,0.093 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.062,0.015,0.105 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.062,0.026,0.092 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.389,0.317,0.448 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.036,-0.062,-0.013 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.281,0.595,-0.013,-0.041,0.017 @@ -91,9 +91,9 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.594,0.438,0.781,0.009,-0.032,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.004,-0.055,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.018,-0.03,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.024,-0.013,0.058 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.688,0.53,0.844,0.064,0.02,0.117 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.052,0.013,0.091 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.058,0.021,0.099 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.058,0.012,0.1 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.387,0.321,0.445 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.035,-0.066,-0.01 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.012,-0.039,0.015 @@ -107,9 +107,9 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.01,-0.018,0.039 TiRex,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.005,-0.047,0.045 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.019,-0.027,0.058 TiRex,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.025,-0.015,0.064 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.065,0.019,0.119 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.053,0.02,0.087 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.059,0.021,0.099 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.059,0.026,0.092 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.317,0.447 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.063,-0.109,-0.02 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.038,-0.094,0.011 @@ -123,9 +123,9 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.531,0.374,0.688,-0.016,-0.076,0.033 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.594,0.406,0.75,-0.021,-0.087,0.033 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.007,-0.051,0.031 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,-0.0,-0.057,0.049 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.04,-0.009,0.091 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.028,-0.032,0.089 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.034,-0.009,0.079 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.035,-0.022,0.09 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.315,0.424 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.046,-0.085,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.022,-0.048,0.009 @@ -139,9 +139,9 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.469,0.281,0.625,-0.005,-0.052,0.037 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.009,-0.036,0.053 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.016,-0.041,0.069 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.055,0.007,0.115 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.044,0.012,0.078 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.05,0.005,0.094 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.05,0.033,0.067 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.381,0.312,0.442 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.041,-0.094,0.019 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.017,-0.073,0.047 @@ -155,9 +155,9 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.531,0.375,0.719,0.005,-0.039,0.049 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.014,-0.025,0.05 FlowState,citras-fm,0.469,0.281,0.656,0.021,-0.039,0.085 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.06,-0.008,0.146 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.048,-0.014,0.107 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.055,-0.0,0.113 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.055,0.006,0.102 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.384,0.318,0.446 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.056,-0.093,-0.011 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.031,-0.075,0.017 @@ -171,9 +171,9 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.01,-0.056,0.035 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.014,-0.053,0.024 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.438,0.281,0.625,0.006,-0.042,0.063 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.046,-0.019,0.115 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.562,0.405,0.72,0.035,-0.018,0.091 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.041,-0.007,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.041,-0.005,0.087 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.316,0.428 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.062,-0.104,-0.029 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.038,-0.087,0.01 @@ -187,10 +187,26 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.016,-0.074,0.039 citras-fm,FlowState,0.531,0.344,0.719,-0.021,-0.093,0.038 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.562,0.375,0.719,-0.007,-0.067,0.04 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.04,-0.014,0.095 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.028,-0.026,0.081 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.035,0.004,0.068 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.719,0.562,0.844,0.035,-0.023,0.09 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.372,0.297,0.436 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.107,-0.166,-0.058 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.081,-0.143,-0.032 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.077,-0.139,-0.029 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.093,-0.187,-0.024 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.072,-0.133,-0.025 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.47,-0.068,-0.133,-0.02 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.069,-0.136,-0.02 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.042,-0.101,0.008 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.059,-0.13,-0.007 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.064,-0.17,0.008 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.049,-0.131,0.019 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.042,-0.105,0.014 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.594,0.438,0.75,-0.012,-0.067,0.036 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.438,0.781,-0.006,-0.053,0.038 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.345,0.268,0.411 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.094,-0.143,-0.053 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.068,-0.112,-0.03 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.064,-0.106,-0.025 @@ -203,9 +219,9 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.046,-0.085,-0.012 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.051,-0.12,0.014 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.438,0.28,0.595,-0.036,-0.101,0.018 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.029,-0.088,0.025 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.406,0.25,0.562,0.012,-0.038,0.063 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.007,-0.041,0.048 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.594,0.406,0.781,0.007,-0.027,0.035 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.353,0.278,0.419 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.101,-0.15,-0.06 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.075,-0.129,-0.023 @@ -219,26 +235,10 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.053,-0.104,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.058,-0.127,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.043,-0.101,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.036,-0.073,-0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.375,0.219,0.562,0.006,-0.039,0.05 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.007,-0.05,0.039 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.0,-0.045,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.349,0.278,0.411 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.101,-0.151,-0.054 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.075,-0.117,-0.033 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.071,-0.113,-0.022 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.087,-0.13,-0.05 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.066,-0.102,-0.026 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.062,-0.111,-0.012 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.063,-0.102,-0.027 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.036,-0.099,0.021 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.053,-0.072,-0.034 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.058,-0.114,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.043,-0.095,0.005 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.281,0.156,0.438,-0.036,-0.099,0.022 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.406,0.219,0.594,-0.007,-0.037,0.026 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.0,-0.045,0.043 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.349,0.278,0.409 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.691,-0.858,-0.53 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.652,-0.824,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.645,-0.829,-0.459 @@ -251,7 +251,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.617,-0.793,-0.454 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.624,-0.806,-0.467 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.75,-0.462 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.591,-0.772,-0.422 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.527,-0.697,-0.366 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.546,-0.721,-0.386 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.536,-0.698,-0.385 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.536,-0.693,-0.386 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0