diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes index a6344aac8c09253b3b630fb776ae94478aa0275b..e2fdd3c78bfef7d609c3b755310e6439737447f2 100644 --- a/.gitattributes +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -25,7 +25,6 @@ *.safetensors filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text saved_model/**/* filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text *.tar.* filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text -*.tar filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text *.tflite filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text *.tgz filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text *.wasm filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text @@ -33,3 +32,4 @@ saved_model/**/* filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text *.zip filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text *.zst filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text *tfevents* filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text +scale-hf-logo.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index ed8ebf583f771da9150c35db3955987b7d757904..46141db48eda31c2c991a0b4e2f0ffdbc38b6283 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -1 +1,13 @@ -__pycache__ \ No newline at end of file +auto_evals/ +venv/ +__pycache__/ +.env +.ipynb_checkpoints +*ipynb +.vscode/ + +eval-queue/ +eval-results/ +eval-queue-bk/ +eval-results-bk/ +logs/ diff --git a/.pre-commit-config.yaml b/.pre-commit-config.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0710dad252bda2ac9fd5b7e4e2e4dc0afeff43cf --- /dev/null +++ b/.pre-commit-config.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ +# Copyright (c) 2022, NVIDIA CORPORATION. All rights reserved. +# +# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); +# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. +# You may obtain a copy of the License at +# +# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 +# +# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software +# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, +# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. +# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and +# limitations under the License. + +default_language_version: + python: python3 + +ci: + autofix_prs: true + autoupdate_commit_msg: '[pre-commit.ci] pre-commit suggestions' + autoupdate_schedule: quarterly + +repos: + - repo: https://github.com/pre-commit/pre-commit-hooks + rev: v4.3.0 + hooks: + - id: check-yaml + - id: check-case-conflict + - id: detect-private-key + - id: check-added-large-files + args: ['--maxkb=1000'] + - id: requirements-txt-fixer + - id: end-of-file-fixer + - id: trailing-whitespace + + - repo: https://github.com/PyCQA/isort + rev: 5.12.0 + hooks: + - id: isort + name: Format imports + + - repo: https://github.com/psf/black + rev: 22.12.0 + hooks: + - id: black + name: Format code + additional_dependencies: ['click==8.0.2'] + + - repo: https://github.com/charliermarsh/ruff-pre-commit + # Ruff version. + rev: 'v0.0.267' + hooks: + - id: ruff diff --git a/.streamlit/config.toml b/.streamlit/config.toml deleted file mode 100644 index b37a14412b6e498210c9d7a0228c5269a72c804f..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/.streamlit/config.toml +++ /dev/null @@ -1,2 +0,0 @@ -[theme] -base = "light" \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/CLAUDE.md b/CLAUDE.md deleted file mode 100644 index 6c426ef8fee9e5768ca9395c8e81cd230ebec869..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/CLAUDE.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,82 +0,0 @@ -# CLAUDE.md - -This file provides guidance to Claude Code (claude.ai/code) when working with code in this repository. - -## Project Overview - -fev-bench Leaderboard is a Streamlit web application displaying time series forecasting model evaluation results from the fev-bench benchmark. It evaluates 30+ forecasting models using multiple metrics (SQL, MASE, WQL, WAPE) across 100 benchmark tasks. - -## Common Commands - -```bash -# Run the Streamlit app locally -uv run streamlit run fev-leaderboard-app.py --server.port=8501 --server.address=0.0.0.0 - -# Regenerate leaderboard tables from autogluon/fev repo (defaults to main branch) -uv run python save_tables.py [commit] # e.g., uv run python save_tables.py abc123 - -# Docker build and run -docker build -t fev-leaderboard . -docker run -p 8501:8501 fev-leaderboard -``` - -Note: Use `uv run` prefix for all Python commands in this project. - -No test or lint frameworks are configured. - -## Architecture - -``` -fev-leaderboard-app.py # Main entry point (Streamlit multi-page router) -save_tables.py # Generates pre-computed CSV tables from raw summaries -pages/ -├── fev_bench.py # Main leaderboard (100 tasks, loads from tables/) -├── chronos_bench_ii.py # Alternative leaderboard (27 tasks, fetches from GitHub) -└── about.py # Help page with links -src/ -├── utils.py # Visualization, formatting, MODEL_CONFIG, color palette -├── strings.py # UI text, metric descriptions, paper citations -└── task_groups.py # Task groupings by frequency and domain -tables/ # Pre-generated CSVs -├── pivot_*.csv # Full pivot tables (filtered in app by task group) -├── summaries.csv # Raw evaluation summaries -└── {group}/ # Subdirectories for each task group (full, mini, frequency_*, domain_*) - ├── leaderboard_*.csv # Leaderboard tables per metric - └── pairwise_*.csv # Pairwise comparison tables per metric -``` - -**Data flow**: GitHub (autogluon/fev) → `save_tables.py` → pre-computed tables → `fev_bench.py` visualization - -## Key Modules - -**`src/utils.py`**: Core module containing: -- `MODEL_CONFIG`: Dict mapping model names to (huggingface_url, organization, is_zero_shot, model_type) -- `ALL_METRICS`: Dict with SQL, MASE, WQL, WAPE definitions -- `format_leaderboard()`, `construct_bar_chart()`, `construct_pairwise_chart()`, `construct_pivot_table()`: Styling functions -- `COLORS`: Custom palette (purple, gold, silver, bronze) - -**`src/strings.py`**: Documentation strings for metric formulas, win rate/skill score calculations, imputation strategies - -## Metrics - -| Metric | Type | Description | -|--------|------|-------------| -| SQL | Probabilistic | Scaled Quantile Loss (scale-invariant) | -| MASE | Point | Mean Absolute Scaled Error (scale-invariant) | -| WQL | Probabilistic | Weighted Quantile Loss (scale-dependent) | -| WAPE | Point | Weighted Absolute Percentage Error (scale-dependent) | - -## Model Types - -Models are categorized as DL (deep learning) or ST (statistical) in `MODEL_CONFIG`. This affects color-coding in visualizations (blue vs. orange). - -## Imputation Strategy - -- **Failed tasks**: Replaced with Seasonal Naive scores -- **Leaky tasks** (training corpus overlap for zero-shot models): Replaced with Chronos-Bolt scores - -## External References - -- fev-bench paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26468 -- fev library docs: https://autogluon.github.io/fev/latest/ -- GitHub: https://github.com/autogluon/fev diff --git a/Dockerfile b/Dockerfile deleted file mode 100644 index 719396ef137d19fbef8a8563157a42d3f1ed9812..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/Dockerfile +++ /dev/null @@ -1,21 +0,0 @@ -FROM python:3.13.5-slim - -RUN useradd -m -u 1000 user -WORKDIR /app - -RUN apt-get update && apt-get install -y \ - build-essential \ - curl \ - git \ - && rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/* - -COPY --chown=user ./requirements.txt requirements.txt -COPY --chown=user . /app - -RUN pip3 install -r requirements.txt - -EXPOSE 8501 - -HEALTHCHECK CMD curl --fail http://localhost:8501/_stcore/health - -ENTRYPOINT ["streamlit", "run", "fev-leaderboard-app.py", "--server.port=8501", "--server.address=0.0.0.0"] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/Makefile b/Makefile new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b5685772804c8af4235a8504dc6752bfc9ae5d1d --- /dev/null +++ b/Makefile @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +.PHONY: style format + + +style: + python -m black --line-length 119 . + python -m isort . + ruff check --fix . + + +quality: + python -m black --check --line-length 119 . + python -m isort --check-only . + ruff check . diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 85e819d3f9cf9db50c15ff2605d0279cfa484f89..0319a7200e0f3e16326e23dfe8e7234e773c4941 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -1,20 +1,44 @@ --- -title: fev-bench -emoji: 🏆 +title: Fev Leaderboard +emoji: 🥇 colorFrom: green colorTo: indigo -sdk: docker -app_port: 8501 -tags: -- streamlit -pinned: false -short_description: Forecast evaluation benchmark +sdk: gradio +app_file: app.py +pinned: true license: apache-2.0 --- -# Welcome to Streamlit! +# Start the configuration -Edit `/src/streamlit_app.py` to customize this app to your heart's desire. :heart: +Most of the variables to change for a default leaderboard are in `src/env.py` (replace the path for your leaderboard) and `src/about.py` (for tasks). -If you have any questions, checkout our [documentation](https://docs.streamlit.io) and [community -forums](https://discuss.streamlit.io). +Results files should have the following format and be stored as json files: +```json +{ + "config": { + "model_dtype": "torch.float16", # or torch.bfloat16 or 8bit or 4bit + "model_name": "path of the model on the hub: org/model", + "model_sha": "revision on the hub", + }, + "results": { + "task_name": { + "metric_name": score, + }, + "task_name2": { + "metric_name": score, + } + } +} +``` + +Request files are created automatically by this tool. + +If you encounter problem on the space, don't hesitate to restart it to remove the create eval-queue, eval-queue-bk, eval-results and eval-results-bk created folder. + +# Code logic for more complex edits + +You'll find +- the main table' columns names and properties in `src/display/utils.py` +- the logic to read all results and request files, then convert them in dataframe lines, in `src/leaderboard/read_evals.py`, and `src/populate.py` +- the logic to allow or filter submissions in `src/submission/submit.py` and `src/submission/check_validity.py` \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/app.py b/app.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a25784c6937211c345063e3a6718ea46ba7705e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/app.py @@ -0,0 +1,97 @@ +import fev +import gradio as gr +import pandas as pd + +from src import about +from src.custom_html_js import custom_css +from src.formatting import make_clickable_model + +# Load the CSV data into a pandas DataFrame +df = pd.read_csv( + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/seasonal_naive.csv" +) + + +summary_urls = [ + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_arima.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_ets.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_theta.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_base.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_large.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_mini.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_small.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_tiny.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_base.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_mini.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_small.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_tiny.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_base.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_large.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_small.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/seasonal_naive.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/timesfm.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/timesfm-2.0.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/ttm-r2.csv", + "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/tirex.csv", +] + +rename_cols = { + "gmean_relative_error": "Average relative error", + "avg_rank": "Average rank", + "median_inference_time_s": "Median inference time (s)", + "training_corpus_overlap": "Training corpus overlap (%)", +} +selected_cols = list(rename_cols.keys()) + + +def highlight_zeroshot(styler): + """Highlight training overlap for zero-shot models with bold green.""" + + def style_func(val): + if val == 0: + return "color: green; font-weight: bold" + else: + return "color: black" + + return styler.map(style_func, subset=["Training corpus overlap (%)"]) + + +leaderboards = {} +for metric in ["WQL", "MASE"]: + lb = fev.leaderboard(summary_urls, metric_column=metric)[selected_cols].rename(columns=rename_cols) + lb = lb.astype("float64").round(3).reset_index() + lb["Training corpus overlap (%)"] = (lb["Training corpus overlap (%)"] * 100).round(1) + lb["model_name"] = lb["model_name"].apply(make_clickable_model) + leaderboards[metric] = highlight_zeroshot(lb.style).format(precision=3) + + +with gr.Blocks(css=custom_css) as demo: + gr.HTML(about.TITLE) + gr.Markdown(about.INTRODUCTION_TEXT, elem_classes="markdown-text") + + with gr.Tabs(elem_classes="tab-buttons"): + with gr.Tab("🏅 Chronos Benchmark II", id=0): + with gr.Column(): + gr.Markdown(about.CHRONOS_BENCHMARK, elem_classes="markdown-text") + with gr.Tabs(): + with gr.Tab("📊 Probabilistic forecast (WQL)"): + gr.Markdown("""Forecast accuracy measured by Weighted Quantile Loss.""") + gr.Dataframe( + value=leaderboards["WQL"], + datatype=["markdown", "number", "number", "number"], + interactive=False, + ) + + with gr.Tab("📈 Point forecast (MASE)"): + gr.Markdown("""Forecast accuracy measured by Mean Absolute Scaled Error.""") + gr.Dataframe( + value=leaderboards["MASE"], + datatype=["markdown", "number", "number", "number"], + interactive=False, + ) + + with gr.Tab("📝 About", id=1): + gr.Markdown(about.ABOUT_LEADERBOARD) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + demo.launch(ssr_mode=False) diff --git a/fev-leaderboard-app.py b/fev-leaderboard-app.py deleted file mode 100644 index 5254daa3546fcd4274035c5b7dd89ba69642d72a..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/fev-leaderboard-app.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,9 +0,0 @@ -import streamlit as st - -pages = [ - st.Page("pages/fev_bench.py", title="fev-bench", icon=":material/trophy:"), - st.Page("pages/about.py", title="About", icon=":material/info:"), -] - -page = st.navigation(pages) -page.run() diff --git a/pages/about.py b/pages/about.py deleted file mode 100644 index 8405c75af6af666ab84ff72ffae9869e95c94f44..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/pages/about.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,19 +0,0 @@ -import streamlit as st - -ABOUT_LEADERBOARD = """ -## About - -[**fev**](https://github.com/autogluon/fev) is a lightweight wrapper around the 🤗 [datasets](https://huggingface.co/docs/datasets/en/index) library designed to streamline - benchmarking of time series forecasting models. - -### 📚 Resources -- **Documentation**: [Official docs](https://autogluon.github.io/fev/latest/) -- **Publication**: ["fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26468) -- **Source Code**: [GitHub repository](https://github.com/autogluon/fev) -- **Issues & Questions**: [GitHub Issues](https://github.com/autogluon/fev/issues) - -### 🚀 Submit Your Model -Ready to add your model to the leaderboard? Follow this [tutorial](https://autogluon.github.io/fev/latest/tutorials/05-add-your-model/) to evaluate your model with fev and contribute your results. -""" -st.set_page_config(layout="wide", page_title="About FEV", page_icon=":material/info:") -st.markdown(ABOUT_LEADERBOARD) diff --git a/pages/chronos_bench_ii.py b/pages/chronos_bench_ii.py deleted file mode 100644 index 6ed26f9df6fca52151170e400c6c94e1d359b594..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/pages/chronos_bench_ii.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,179 +0,0 @@ -import sys -from pathlib import Path - -sys.path.append(str(Path(__file__).parent.parent)) - -import fev -import pandas as pd -import streamlit as st -from streamlit.elements.lib.column_types import ColumnConfig - -from src.strings import ( - CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_BASIC_INFO, - CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, - CITATION_CHRONOS, - CITATION_FEV, - CITATION_HEADER, - PAIRWISE_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, - get_pivot_legend, -) -from src.utils import ( - construct_bar_chart, - construct_pairwise_chart, - construct_pivot_table, - format_leaderboard, - format_metric_name, - get_metric_description, -) - -st.set_page_config(layout="wide", page_title="FEV Benchmark Leaderboard", page_icon=":material/trophy:") - -TITLE = "

Chronos Benchmark II

" -BASELINE_MODEL = "seasonal_naive" -LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL = "chronos_bolt_base" -SORT_COL = "win_rate" -N_RESAMPLES_FOR_CI = 1000 -TOP_K_MODELS_TO_PLOT = 15 -AVAILABLE_METRICS = ["WQL", "MASE"] -SUMMARY_URLS = [ - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_arima.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_ets.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_theta.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_base.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_large.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_mini.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_small.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_tiny.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_base.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_mini.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_small.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_tiny.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_base.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_large.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_small.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/seasonal_naive.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/timesfm.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/timesfm-2.0.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/ttm-r2.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/tirex.csv", -] - - -@st.cache_data() -def load_summaries(): - summaries = [] - for url in SUMMARY_URLS: - df = pd.read_csv(url) - summaries.append(df) - return pd.concat(summaries, ignore_index=True) - - -@st.cache_data() -def get_leaderboard(metric_name: str) -> pd.DataFrame: - summaries = load_summaries() - lb = fev.analysis.leaderboard( - summaries=summaries, - metric_column=metric_name, - missing_strategy="impute", - baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL, - leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL, - ) - lb = lb.astype("float64").reset_index() - - lb["skill_score"] = lb["skill_score"] * 100 - lb["win_rate"] = lb["win_rate"] * 100 - lb["num_failures"] = lb["num_failures"] / summaries["task_name"].nunique() * 100 - return lb - - -@st.cache_data() -def get_pairwise(metric_name: str, included_models: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: - if BASELINE_MODEL not in included_models: - included_models = included_models + [BASELINE_MODEL] - summaries = load_summaries() - return ( - fev.analysis.pairwise_comparison( - summaries, - included_models=included_models, - metric_column=metric_name, - baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL, - missing_strategy="impute", - n_resamples=N_RESAMPLES_FOR_CI, - leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL, - ) - .round(3) - .reset_index() - ) - - -with st.sidebar: - selected_metric = st.selectbox("Evaluation Metric", options=AVAILABLE_METRICS, format_func=format_metric_name) - st.caption(get_metric_description(selected_metric)) - -cols = st.columns(spec=[0.025, 0.95, 0.025]) - -with cols[1] as main_container: - st.markdown(TITLE, unsafe_allow_html=True) - - metric_df = get_leaderboard(selected_metric).sort_values(by=SORT_COL, ascending=False) - top_k_models = metric_df.head(TOP_K_MODELS_TO_PLOT)["model_name"].tolist() - pairwise_df = get_pairwise(selected_metric, included_models=top_k_models) - - st.markdown("## :material/trophy: Leaderboard", unsafe_allow_html=True) - st.markdown(CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_BASIC_INFO, unsafe_allow_html=True) - df_styled = format_leaderboard(metric_df) - st.dataframe( - df_styled, - use_container_width=True, - hide_index=True, - column_config={ - "model_name": ColumnConfig(label="Model Name", alignment="left"), - "win_rate": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Avg. win rate (%)", format="%.1f"), - "skill_score": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Skill score (%)", format="%.1f"), - "median_inference_time_s": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Median runtime (s)", format="%.1f"), - "training_corpus_overlap": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Leakage (%)", format="%d"), - "num_failures": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Failed tasks (%)", format="%.0f"), - "zero_shot": ColumnConfig(label="Zero-shot", alignment="center"), - "org": ColumnConfig(label="Organization", alignment="left"), - "link": st.column_config.LinkColumn(label="Link", display_text=":material/open_in_new:"), - }, - ) - - with st.expander("See details"): - st.markdown(CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, unsafe_allow_html=True) - - st.markdown("## :material/bar_chart: Pairwise comparison", unsafe_allow_html=True) - chart_col_1, _, chart_col_2 = st.columns(spec=[0.45, 0.1, 0.45]) - - with chart_col_1: - st.altair_chart( - construct_pairwise_chart(pairwise_df, col="win_rate", metric_name=selected_metric), - use_container_width=True, - ) - - with chart_col_2: - st.altair_chart( - construct_pairwise_chart(pairwise_df, col="skill_score", metric_name=selected_metric), - use_container_width=True, - ) - - with st.expander("See details"): - st.markdown(PAIRWISE_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, unsafe_allow_html=True) - - st.markdown("## :material/table_chart: Results for individual tasks", unsafe_allow_html=True) - with st.expander("Show detailed results"): - st.markdown(get_pivot_legend(BASELINE_MODEL, LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL), unsafe_allow_html=True) - st.dataframe( - construct_pivot_table( - summaries=load_summaries(), - metric_name=selected_metric, - baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL, - leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL, - ) - ) - - st.divider() - st.markdown("### :material/format_quote: Citation", unsafe_allow_html=True) - st.markdown(CITATION_HEADER) - st.markdown(CITATION_FEV) - st.markdown(CITATION_CHRONOS) diff --git a/pages/fev_bench.py b/pages/fev_bench.py deleted file mode 100644 index 343125c238e82d8908ac3e7962daf341390ee9ae..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/pages/fev_bench.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,219 +0,0 @@ -import sys -from pathlib import Path - -sys.path.append(str(Path(__file__).parent)) - -import fev -import pandas as pd -import streamlit as st -from streamlit.elements.lib.column_types import ColumnConfig - -from src.strings import ( - CITATION_FEV, - CITATION_HEADER, - FEV_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, - PAIRWISE_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, - get_pivot_legend, -) -from src.task_groups import ( - ALL_TASKS, - DOMAIN_GROUPS, - FREQUENCY_GROUPS, - MINI_TASKS, - get_task_group, -) -from src.utils import ( - COLORS, - construct_pairwise_chart, - format_leaderboard, - format_metric_name, - get_metric_description, -) - -st.set_page_config(layout="wide", page_title="fev leaderboard", page_icon=":material/trophy:") - -TITLE = "

fev-bench

" -SORT_COL = "win_rate" -AVAILABLE_METRICS = ["SQL", "MASE", "WQL", "WAPE"] - -# Group type options -GROUP_TYPES = ["Full (100 tasks)", "Mini (20 tasks)", "By frequency", "By domain"] -FREQUENCY_OPTIONS = list(FREQUENCY_GROUPS.keys()) -DOMAIN_OPTIONS = list(DOMAIN_GROUPS.keys()) - -def get_subset_description(group_type: str, subgroup: str | None, num_tasks: int) -> str: - """Generate a description of the current subset.""" - base = f"Results for various forecasting models on **{num_tasks} tasks**" - if group_type == "Full (100 tasks)": - subset_desc = "from the full **fev-bench** benchmark" - elif group_type == "Mini (20 tasks)": - subset_desc = "from the **fev-bench-mini** subset" - elif group_type == "By frequency": - subset_desc = f"with **{subgroup.lower()}** frequency" - else: # By domain - subset_desc = f"from the **{subgroup}** domain" - paper_link = "[fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26468)" - return f"{base} {subset_desc}, as described in the paper {paper_link}." - - -# Mapping from UI selections to table directory names -GROUP_DIR_MAPPING = { - "Full (100 tasks)": "full", - "Mini (20 tasks)": "mini", - "Sub-hourly": "frequency_sub_hourly", - "Hourly": "frequency_hourly", - "Daily": "frequency_daily", - "Weekly": "frequency_weekly", - "Monthly+": "frequency_monthly_plus", - "Energy": "domain_energy", - "Nature": "domain_nature", - "Cloud": "domain_cloud", - "Mobility": "domain_mobility", - "Econ": "domain_econ", - "Health": "domain_health", - "Retail": "domain_retail", -} - - -@st.cache_data() -def get_leaderboard(metric_name: str, group_dir: str) -> pd.DataFrame: - return pd.read_csv(f"tables/{group_dir}/leaderboard_{metric_name}.csv") - - -@st.cache_data() -def get_pairwise(metric_name: str, group_dir: str) -> pd.DataFrame: - return pd.read_csv(f"tables/{group_dir}/pairwise_{metric_name}.csv") - - -@st.cache_data() -def get_pivot_table(metric_name: str) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]: - pivot_df = pd.read_csv(f"tables/pivot_{metric_name}.csv") - baseline_imputed = pd.read_csv(f"tables/pivot_{metric_name}_baseline_imputed.csv") - leakage_imputed = pd.read_csv(f"tables/pivot_{metric_name}_leakage_imputed.csv") - return pivot_df, baseline_imputed, leakage_imputed - - -with st.sidebar: - # Task group selection - selected_group_type = st.selectbox("Subset", options=GROUP_TYPES) - - # Conditional sub-selection for frequency/domain - selected_subgroup = None - if selected_group_type == "By frequency": - selected_subgroup = st.selectbox("Frequency", options=FREQUENCY_OPTIONS) - elif selected_group_type == "By domain": - selected_subgroup = st.selectbox("Domain", options=DOMAIN_OPTIONS) - - # Determine the directory to load tables from - if selected_group_type in ["Full (100 tasks)", "Mini (20 tasks)"]: - group_dir = GROUP_DIR_MAPPING[selected_group_type] - task_list = ALL_TASKS if selected_group_type == "Full (100 tasks)" else MINI_TASKS - else: - group_dir = GROUP_DIR_MAPPING[selected_subgroup] - if selected_group_type == "By frequency": - task_list = FREQUENCY_GROUPS[selected_subgroup] - else: - task_list = DOMAIN_GROUPS[selected_subgroup] - - st.caption(f"{len(task_list)} tasks") - - st.divider() - - selected_metric = st.selectbox("Evaluation Metric", options=AVAILABLE_METRICS, format_func=format_metric_name) - st.caption(get_metric_description(selected_metric)) - -cols = st.columns(spec=[0.025, 0.95, 0.025]) - -with cols[1] as main_container: - st.markdown(TITLE, unsafe_allow_html=True) - - metric_df = get_leaderboard(selected_metric, group_dir).sort_values(by=SORT_COL, ascending=False) - pairwise_df = get_pairwise(selected_metric, group_dir) - - st.markdown("## :material/trophy: Leaderboard", unsafe_allow_html=True) - st.markdown(get_subset_description(selected_group_type, selected_subgroup, len(task_list)), unsafe_allow_html=True) - df_styled = format_leaderboard(metric_df) - st.dataframe( - df_styled, - width="stretch", - hide_index=True, - column_config={ - "model_name": ColumnConfig(label="Model Name", alignment="left"), - "win_rate": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Avg. win rate (%)", format="%.1f"), - "skill_score": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Skill score (%)", format="%.1f"), - "median_inference_time_s_per100": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Median runtime (s / 100 series)", format="%.1f"), - "training_corpus_overlap": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Leakage (%)", format="%d"), - "num_failures": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Failed tasks (%)", format="%.0f"), - "zero_shot": ColumnConfig(label="Zero-shot", alignment="center"), - "org": ColumnConfig(label="Organization", alignment="left"), - "link": st.column_config.LinkColumn(label="Link", display_text="🔗"), - }, - ) - - with st.expander("See details"): - st.markdown(FEV_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, unsafe_allow_html=True) - - st.markdown("## :material/bar_chart: Pairwise comparison", unsafe_allow_html=True) - chart_col_1, _, chart_col_2 = st.columns(spec=[0.45, 0.1, 0.45]) - - with chart_col_1: - st.altair_chart( - construct_pairwise_chart(pairwise_df, col="win_rate", metric_name=selected_metric), - use_container_width=True, - ) - - with chart_col_2: - st.altair_chart( - construct_pairwise_chart(pairwise_df, col="skill_score", metric_name=selected_metric), - use_container_width=True, - ) - - with st.expander("See details"): - st.markdown(PAIRWISE_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, unsafe_allow_html=True) - - st.markdown("## :material/table_chart: Results for individual tasks", unsafe_allow_html=True) - with st.expander("Show detailed results"): - st.markdown(get_pivot_legend("Seasonal Naive", "Chronos-Bolt"), unsafe_allow_html=True) - pivot_df, baseline_imputed, leakage_imputed = get_pivot_table(selected_metric) - pivot_df = pivot_df.set_index("Task name") - baseline_imputed = baseline_imputed.set_index("Task name") - leakage_imputed = leakage_imputed.set_index("Task name") - - # Filter pivot table to only show tasks in the selected group - available_tasks = [t for t in task_list if t in pivot_df.index] - pivot_df = pivot_df.loc[available_tasks] - baseline_imputed = baseline_imputed.loc[available_tasks] - leakage_imputed = leakage_imputed.loc[available_tasks] - - def style_pivot_table(errors, is_baseline_imputed, is_leakage_imputed): - rank_colors = {1: COLORS["gold"], 2: COLORS["silver"], 3: COLORS["bronze"]} - - def highlight_by_position(styler): - for row_idx in errors.index: - row_ranks = errors.loc[row_idx].rank(method="min") - for col_idx in errors.columns: - rank = row_ranks[col_idx] - style_parts = [] - if rank <= 3: - style_parts.append(f"background-color: {rank_colors[rank]}") - if is_leakage_imputed.loc[row_idx, col_idx]: - style_parts.append(f"color: {COLORS['leakage_impute']}") - elif is_baseline_imputed.loc[row_idx, col_idx]: - style_parts.append(f"color: {COLORS['failure_impute']}") - elif not style_parts: - style_parts.append(f"color: {COLORS['text_default']}") - if style_parts: - styler = styler.map( - lambda x, s="; ".join(style_parts): s, - subset=pd.IndexSlice[row_idx:row_idx, col_idx:col_idx], - ) - return styler - - return highlight_by_position(errors.style).format(precision=3) - - st.dataframe(style_pivot_table(pivot_df, baseline_imputed, leakage_imputed)) - - st.divider() - st.markdown("### :material/format_quote: Citation", unsafe_allow_html=True) - st.markdown(CITATION_HEADER) - st.markdown(CITATION_FEV) diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml index 5beb6eb822dfffd8e8ebc03e887ca03dbb6da316..3b4737924b5a7d81c962a4e28b66ac6cdcc3b004 100644 --- a/pyproject.toml +++ b/pyproject.toml @@ -1,12 +1,13 @@ -[project] -name = "hf-leaderboard" -version = "0.1.0" -requires-python = ">=3.11" -dependencies = [ - "altair>=6.0.0", - "fev>=0.7.0", - "numpy<2.2", - "pyarrow<21", - "scipy<1.15", - "streamlit>=1.53.1", -] +[tool.ruff] +# Enable pycodestyle (`E`) and Pyflakes (`F`) codes by default. +select = ["E", "F"] +ignore = ["E501"] # line too long (black is taking care of this) +line-length = 119 +fixable = ["A", "B", "C", "D", "E", "F", "G", "I", "N", "Q", "S", "T", "W", "ANN", "ARG", "BLE", "COM", "DJ", "DTZ", "EM", "ERA", "EXE", "FBT", "ICN", "INP", "ISC", "NPY", "PD", "PGH", "PIE", "PL", "PT", "PTH", "PYI", "RET", "RSE", "RUF", "SIM", "SLF", "TCH", "TID", "TRY", "UP", "YTT"] + +[tool.isort] +profile = "black" +line_length = 119 + +[tool.black] +line-length = 119 diff --git a/requirements.txt b/requirements.txt index e5e15e89873cf7414b789bb7e3a87b30efcae700..df79e537f7f02878e2af0b6bc139304fa109a39c 100644 --- a/requirements.txt +++ b/requirements.txt @@ -1,7 +1,11 @@ +APScheduler +black +datasets +gradio +gradio[oauth] +gradio_client +huggingface-hub>=0.18.0 matplotlib numpy pandas -requests -streamlit==1.49.1 -fev>=0.6.0 -altair>=5.5.0 +fev==0.4.0 diff --git a/save_tables.py b/save_tables.py deleted file mode 100644 index b46cdddbcb662be61cd6ccdeddada80821fda00b..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/save_tables.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,212 +0,0 @@ -#!/usr/bin/env python3 - -import argparse -import io -import sys -from pathlib import Path - -import requests - -sys.path.append(str(Path(__file__).parent)) - -import fev -import pandas as pd - -from src.task_groups import ALL_TASKS, DOMAIN_GROUPS, FREQUENCY_GROUPS, MINI_TASKS -from src.utils import format_leaderboard - -GITHUB_REPO = "autogluon/fev" -RESULTS_PATH = "benchmarks/fev_bench/results" - -# Constants from the main app -BASELINE_MODEL = "Seasonal Naive" -LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL = "Chronos-Bolt" -SORT_COL = "win_rate" -N_RESAMPLES_FOR_CI = 1000 -TOP_K_MODELS_TO_PLOT = 15 -AVAILABLE_METRICS = ["SQL", "MASE", "WQL", "WAPE"] - -# All task groups to generate tables for -TASK_GROUPS = { - "full": ALL_TASKS, - "mini": MINI_TASKS, - "frequency_sub_hourly": FREQUENCY_GROUPS["Sub-hourly"], - "frequency_hourly": FREQUENCY_GROUPS["Hourly"], - "frequency_daily": FREQUENCY_GROUPS["Daily"], - "frequency_weekly": FREQUENCY_GROUPS["Weekly"], - "frequency_monthly_plus": FREQUENCY_GROUPS["Monthly+"], - "domain_energy": DOMAIN_GROUPS["Energy"], - "domain_nature": DOMAIN_GROUPS["Nature"], - "domain_cloud": DOMAIN_GROUPS["Cloud"], - "domain_mobility": DOMAIN_GROUPS["Mobility"], - "domain_econ": DOMAIN_GROUPS["Econ"], - "domain_health": DOMAIN_GROUPS["Health"], - "domain_retail": DOMAIN_GROUPS["Retail"], -} - - -def get_csv_files_from_github(commit: str) -> list[str]: - """Get list of CSV file paths from the GitHub repo at a specific commit.""" - api_url = f"https://api.github.com/repos/{GITHUB_REPO}/contents/{RESULTS_PATH}?ref={commit}" - response = requests.get(api_url) - response.raise_for_status() - - files = response.json() - csv_files = [f["path"] for f in files if f["name"].endswith(".csv")] - - if not csv_files: - raise FileNotFoundError(f"No CSV files found in {RESULTS_PATH} at commit {commit}") - - return csv_files - - -def load_summaries_from_github(commit: str) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Load and concatenate all CSV summaries from the GitHub repo at a specific commit.""" - csv_files = get_csv_files_from_github(commit) - print(f"Found {len(csv_files)} CSV files") - - dfs = [] - for file_path in csv_files: - raw_url = f"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/{GITHUB_REPO}/{commit}/{file_path}" - response = requests.get(raw_url) - response.raise_for_status() - df = pd.read_csv(io.StringIO(response.text)) - dfs.append(df) - print(f" Loaded: {Path(file_path).name}") - - return pd.concat(dfs, ignore_index=True) - - -def compute_leaderboard(summaries: pd.DataFrame, metric_name: str) -> pd.DataFrame: - lb = fev.analysis.leaderboard( - summaries=summaries, - metric_column=metric_name, - missing_strategy="impute", - baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL, - leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL, - normalize_time_per_n_forecasts=100, - ) - lb = lb.astype("float64").reset_index() - - lb["skill_score"] = lb["skill_score"] * 100 - lb["win_rate"] = lb["win_rate"] * 100 - lb["num_failures"] = lb["num_failures"] / summaries["task_name"].nunique() * 100 - return lb - - -def compute_pairwise(summaries: pd.DataFrame, metric_name: str, included_models: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: - if BASELINE_MODEL not in included_models: - included_models = included_models + [BASELINE_MODEL] - - return ( - fev.analysis.pairwise_comparison( - summaries, - included_models=included_models, - metric_column=metric_name, - baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL, - missing_strategy="impute", - n_resamples=N_RESAMPLES_FOR_CI, - leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL, - ) - .round(3) - .reset_index() - ) - - -def compute_pivot_table(summaries: pd.DataFrame, metric_name: str) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]: - errors = fev.pivot_table(summaries=summaries, metric_column=metric_name, task_columns=["task_name"]) - train_overlap = ( - fev.pivot_table(summaries=summaries, metric_column="trained_on_this_dataset", task_columns=["task_name"]) - .fillna(False) - .astype(bool) - ) - - is_imputed_baseline = errors.isna() - is_leakage_imputed = train_overlap - - # Handle imputations - errors = errors.mask(train_overlap, errors[LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL], axis=0) - for col in errors.columns: - if col != BASELINE_MODEL: - errors[col] = errors[col].fillna(errors[BASELINE_MODEL]) - - errors = errors[errors.rank(axis=1).mean().sort_values().index] - is_imputed_baseline = is_imputed_baseline[errors.columns] - is_leakage_imputed = is_leakage_imputed[errors.columns] - - errors.index.rename("Task name", inplace=True) - is_imputed_baseline.index.rename("Task name", inplace=True) - is_leakage_imputed.index.rename("Task name", inplace=True) - - return errors.reset_index(), is_imputed_baseline.reset_index(), is_leakage_imputed.reset_index() - - -def main(): - parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Generate leaderboard tables from CSV summaries in the fev repo") - parser.add_argument( - "commit", - nargs="?", - default="main", - help=f"Git commit SHA or branch name in the {GITHUB_REPO} repository (default: main)", - ) - args = parser.parse_args() - - # Create tables directory - tables_dir = Path("tables") - tables_dir.mkdir(exist_ok=True) - - print(f"Loading summaries from {GITHUB_REPO} at commit {args.commit}...") - summaries = load_summaries_from_github(args.commit) - - # Save raw summaries for on-the-fly subset computation - summaries.to_csv(tables_dir / "summaries.csv", index=False) - print("Saved: summaries.csv") - - # Generate pivot tables (full version only, at root level) - for metric in AVAILABLE_METRICS: - print(f"Processing pivot table for {metric}...") - pivot_df, baseline_imputed, leakage_imputed = compute_pivot_table(summaries, metric) - pivot_df.to_csv(tables_dir / f"pivot_{metric}.csv", index=False) - baseline_imputed.to_csv(tables_dir / f"pivot_{metric}_baseline_imputed.csv", index=False) - leakage_imputed.to_csv(tables_dir / f"pivot_{metric}_leakage_imputed.csv", index=False) - print(f" Saved: pivot_{metric}.csv") - - # Generate leaderboard and pairwise tables for each task group - for group_name, task_list in TASK_GROUPS.items(): - print(f"\nProcessing group: {group_name} ({len(task_list)} tasks)...") - - # Create subdirectory for this group - group_dir = tables_dir / group_name - group_dir.mkdir(exist_ok=True) - - # Filter summaries to only include tasks in this group - group_summaries = summaries[summaries["task_name"].isin(task_list)] - - if group_summaries.empty: - print(f" WARNING: No matching tasks found for group {group_name}") - continue - - actual_tasks = group_summaries["task_name"].nunique() - print(f" Found {actual_tasks} tasks in summaries") - - for metric in AVAILABLE_METRICS: - # Compute leaderboard for this group - leaderboard_df = compute_leaderboard(group_summaries, metric) - leaderboard_df.to_csv(group_dir / f"leaderboard_{metric}.csv", index=False) - - # Get top models for pairwise comparison - top_k_models = ( - leaderboard_df.sort_values(by=SORT_COL, ascending=False).head(TOP_K_MODELS_TO_PLOT)["model_name"].tolist() - ) - - # Compute pairwise comparison - pairwise_df = compute_pairwise(group_summaries, metric, top_k_models) - pairwise_df.to_csv(group_dir / f"pairwise_{metric}.csv", index=False) - - print(f" Saved: {group_name}/leaderboard_{metric}.csv, {group_name}/pairwise_{metric}.csv") - - print(f"\nAll tables saved to {tables_dir}/") - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - main() diff --git a/src/about.py b/src/about.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ec3ca3187a3dad699865af262076244574d1b51b --- /dev/null +++ b/src/about.py @@ -0,0 +1,50 @@ +TITLE = """

Forecast evaluation leaderboard

""" + +# What does your leaderboard evaluate? +INTRODUCTION_TEXT = """ +This space hosts evaluation results for time series forecasting models. + +The results are obtained using [fev](https://github.com/autogluon/fev) - a lightweight library for evaluating time series forecasting models. +""" + +ABOUT_LEADERBOARD = """ +## What is `fev`? + +[`fev`](https://github.com/autogluon/fev) is a lightweight wrapper around the 🤗 [`datasets`](https://huggingface.co/docs/datasets/en/index) library that makes it easy to benchmark time series forecasting models. + +For more information about `fev`, please check out [github.com/autogluon/fev](https://github.com/autogluon/fev). + +Currently, the results in this space are a minimal proof of concept. We plan to add new benchmark datasets and tasks in the future. + +## How is `fev` different from other benchmarking tools? +Existing forecasting benchmarks usually fall into one of two categories: + +- Standalone datasets without any supporting infrastructure. These provide no guarantees that the results obtained by different users are comparable. For example, changing the start date or duration of the forecast horizon totally changes the meaning of the scores. +- Bespoke end-to-end systems that combine models, datasets and forecasting tasks. Such packages usually come with lots of dependencies and assumptions, which makes extending or integrating these libraries into existing systems difficult. + +`fev` aims for the middle ground - it provides the core benchmarking functionality without introducing unnecessary constraints or bloated dependencies. The library supports point & probabilistic forecasting, different types of covariates, as well as all popular forecasting metrics. + + +## Submitting your model +For instructions on how to evaluate your model using `fev` and contribute your results to the leaderboard, please follow the [instructions in the GitHub repo](https://github.com/autogluon/fev/blob/main/docs/04-models.ipynb). +""" + +CHRONOS_BENCHMARK = """ +## Chronos Benchmark II results + +This tab contains results for various forecasting models on the 27 datasets used in Benchmark II in the publication [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.07815). + +These datasets were used for zero-shot evaluation of Chronos models (i.e., Chronos models were not trained on these datasets), but some other models did include certain datasets in their training corpus. + +Each table contains the following information: + +* **Average relative error**: Geometric mean of the relative errors for each task. The relative error for each task is computed as `model_error / baseline_error`. +* **Average rank**: Arithmetic mean of the ranks achieved by each model on each task. +* **Median inference time (s)**: Median of the times required to make predictions for the entire dataset (in seconds). +* **Training corpus overlap (%)**: Percentage of the datasets used in the benchmark that were included in the model's training corpus. Zero-shot models are highlighted in green. + +Lower values are better for all of the above metrics. + +Task definitions and the detailed results are available on [GitHub](https://github.com/autogluon/fev/tree/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot). More information for the datasets is available in [Table 3 of the paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.07815). + +""" diff --git a/src/colors.py b/src/colors.py deleted file mode 100644 index 44afbf61545559d5b0de0c45742402712501bada..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/src/colors.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,6 +0,0 @@ -# Legacy colors - kept for backward compatibility if needed elsewhere -VERY_PALE_PURPLE = "#e8d9f3" -VERY_PALE_GREEN = "#cffdbc" -VERY_PALE_BLUE = "#d6fffe" -DEEP_LAVENDER = "#8d5eb7" -GRASS_GREEN = "#3f9b0b" diff --git a/src/custom_html_js.py b/src/custom_html_js.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c88cf5bad9a6722df9ef301af9b51ab1b35d4c02 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/custom_html_js.py @@ -0,0 +1,99 @@ +custom_css = """ + +.markdown-text { + font-size: 20px !important; +} + +""" + + +# .tab-buttons button { +# font-size: 20px; +# } + +# #citation-button span { +# font-size: 16px !important; +# } + +# #citation-button textarea { +# font-size: 16px !important; +# } + +# #citation-button > label > button { +# margin: 6px; +# transform: scale(1.3); +# } + + +# #leaderboard-table-lite { +# margin-top: 15px +# } + +# #search-bar-table-box > div:first-child { +# background: none; +# border: none; +# } + +# #search-bar { +# padding: 0px; +# } + +# /* Hides the final AutoEvalColumn */ +# #llm-benchmark-tab-table table td:last-child, +# #llm-benchmark-tab-table table th:last-child { +# display: none; +# } + +# /* Limit the width of the first AutoEvalColumn so that names don't expand too much */ +# table td:first-child, +# table th:first-child { +# max-width: 400px; +# overflow: auto; +# white-space: nowrap; +# } + + +# #scale-logo { +# border-style: none !important; +# box-shadow: none; +# display: block; +# margin-left: auto; +# margin-right: auto; +# max-width: 600px; +# } + +# #scale-logo .download { +# display: none; +# } +# #filter_type{ +# border: 0; +# padding-left: 0; +# padding-top: 0; +# } +# #filter_type label { +# display: flex; +# } +# #filter_type label > span{ +# margin-top: var(--spacing-lg); +# margin-right: 0.5em; +# } +# #filter_type label > .wrap{ +# width: 103px; +# } +# #filter_type label > .wrap .wrap-inner{ +# padding: 2px; +# } +# #filter_type label > .wrap .wrap-inner input{ +# width: 1px +# } +# #filter-columns-type{ +# border:0; +# padding:0.5; +# } +# #filter-columns-size{ +# border:0; +# padding:0.5; +# } +# #box-filter > .form{ +# border: 0 +# } diff --git a/src/formatting.py b/src/formatting.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..02b7e5ac55f221c62436159b7c7a8000016b1132 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/formatting.py @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +def model_hyperlink(link, model_name): + return f'{model_name}' + + +MODEL_URLS = { + "chronos_tiny": "amazon/chronos-t5-tiny", + "chronos_mini": "amazon/chronos-t5-mini", + "chronos_small": "amazon/chronos-t5-small", + "chronos_base": "amazon/chronos-t5-base", + "chronos_large": "amazon/chronos-t5-large", + "chronos_bolt_tiny": "amazon/chronos-bolt-tiny", + "chronos_bolt_mini": "amazon/chronos-bolt-mini", + "chronos_bolt_small": "amazon/chronos-bolt-small", + "chronos_bolt_base": "amazon/chronos-bolt-base", + "moirai_large": "Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-large", + "moirai_base": "Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-base", + "moirai_small": "Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-small", + "timesfm": "google/timesfm-1.0-200m-pytorch", + "timesfm-2.0": "google/timesfm-2.0-500m-pytorch", + "ttm-r2": "ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2", + "tirex": "NX-AI/TiRex", +} + + +def make_clickable_model(model_name): + if model_name in MODEL_URLS: + model_path = MODEL_URLS.get(model_name) + link = f"https://huggingface.co/{model_path}" + return model_hyperlink(link, model_name) + else: + return model_name diff --git a/src/streamlit_app.py b/src/streamlit_app.py deleted file mode 100644 index 211272d717ffeb6c32475b04318a1d14368a6594..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/src/streamlit_app.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,9 +0,0 @@ -import streamlit as st - -pages = [ - st.Page("../pages/fev_bench.py", title="fev-bench", icon=":material/trophy:"), - st.Page("../pages/about.py", title="About", icon=":material/info:"), -] - -page = st.navigation(pages) -page.run() diff --git a/src/strings.py b/src/strings.py deleted file mode 100644 index 5eef14e172685fc7fdb24dc485be3089d4ebf8a7..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/src/strings.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,114 +0,0 @@ -from src.utils import COLORS - -INTRODUCTION_TEXT = """ -This space hosts evaluation results for time series forecasting models. The results are obtained using [fev](https://github.com/autogluon/fev) - a lightweight library for evaluating time series forecasting models. -""" - -LEGEND = """ -""" - -TABLE_INFO = f""" -The leaderboard summarizes the performance of all models evaluated on the 100 tasks comprising **fev-bench**. More details available in the [paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26468). - -Model names are colored by type: Deep Learning and Statistical. - -The full matrix $E_{{rj}}$ with the error of each model $j$ on task $r$ is available at the bottom of the page. - -* **Avg. win rate (%)**: Fraction of all possible model pairs and tasks where this model achieves lower error than the competing model. For model $j$, defined as $W_j = \\frac{{1}}{{R(M-1)}} \\sum_{{r=1}}^{{R}} \\sum_{{k \\neq j}} (\\mathbf{{1}}(E_{{rj}} < E_{{rk}}) + 0.5 \\cdot \\mathbf{{1}}(E_{{rj}} = E_{{rk}}))$ where $R$ is number of tasks, $M$ is number of models. Ties count as half-wins. - - Ranges from 0% (worst) to 100% (best). Higher values are better. This value changes as new models are added to the benchmark. - -* **Skill score (%)**: Measures how much the model reduces forecasting error compared to the Seasonal Naive baseline. Computed as $S_j = 100 \\times (1 - \\sqrt[R]{{\\prod_{{r=1}}^{{R}} E_{{rj}}/E_{{r\\beta}}}})$, where $E_{{r\\beta}}$ is baseline error on task $r$. Relative errors are clipped between 0.01 and 100 before aggregation to avoid extreme outliers. Positive values indicate better-than-baseline performance, negative values indicate worse-than-baseline performance. - - Higher values are better. This value does not change as new models are added to the benchmark. - -* **Median runtime (s)**: Median end-to-end time (training + prediction across all evaluation windows) in seconds. Note that inference times depend on hardware, batch sizes, and implementation details, so these serve as a rough guide rather than definitive performance benchmarks. - -* **Leakage (%)**: For zero-shot models, percentage of benchmark datasets included in the model's training corpus. Results for tasks with reported overlap are replaced with Chronos-Bolt (Base) performance to prevent data leakage. - -* **Failed tasks (%)**: Percentage of tasks where the model failed to produce a forecast. Results for failed tasks are replaced with Seasonal Naive performance. - -* **Zero-shot**: Indicates whether the model can make predictions without task-specific training (✓ = zero-shot, × = task-specific). -""" - -CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_BASIC_INFO = f""" -**Chronos Benchmark II** contains results for various forecasting models on the 27 datasets used in Benchmark II in the paper [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.07815). {LEGEND} -""" - -CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_DETAILS = f""" -{TABLE_INFO} - -Task definitions and the detailed results are available on [GitHub](https://github.com/autogluon/fev/tree/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot). More information for the datasets is available in [Table 3 of the paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.07815). -""" - -FEV_BENCHMARK_BASIC_INFO = f""" -Results for various forecasting models on 100 tasks of the **fev-bench** benchmark, as described in the paper [fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26468). {LEGEND} -""" - -FEV_BENCHMARK_DETAILS = f""" -{TABLE_INFO} - -Task definitions and the detailed results are available on [GitHub](https://github.com/autogluon/fev/tree/main/benchmarks/). Datasets used for evaluation are available on [Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/datasets/autogluon/fev_datasets). -""" - -CITATION_HEADER = """ -If you find this leaderboard useful for your research, please consider citing the associated paper(s): - -""" -CITATION_FEV = """ -``` -@article{shchur2025fev, - title={{fev-bench}: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting}, - author={Shchur, Oleksandr and Ansari, Abdul Fatir and Turkmen, Caner and Stella, Lorenzo and Erickson, Nick and Guerron, Pablo and Bohlke-Schneider, Michael and Wang, Yuyang}, - year={2025}, - eprint={2509.26468}, - archivePrefix={arXiv}, - primaryClass={cs.LG} -} -``` -""" - - -def get_pivot_legend(baseline_model: str, leakage_imputation_model: str) -> str: - return f""" -Task definitions and raw results in CSV format are available on [GitHub](https://github.com/autogluon/fev/tree/main/benchmarks/fev_bench). - -Best results for each task are marked with -🥇 1st -🥈 2nd -🥉 3rd -

-**Imputation:** -- Failed tasks imputed by {baseline_model} -- Leaky tasks imputed by {leakage_imputation_model} -""" - - -PAIRWISE_BENCHMARK_DETAILS = """ -The pairwise charts show head-to-head results between models: - -* **Win rate**: Percentage of tasks where Model 1 achieves lower error than Model 2 (ties count as half-wins). - A value above 50% means Model 1 is more accurate than Model 2 on average. - -* **Skill score**: Average relative error reduction of Model 1 with respect to Model 2. - A positive value means Model 1 reduces forecasting error compared to Model 2 on average. - -**Confidence Intervals**: 95% intervals are estimated using 1000 bootstrap samples over tasks. -For each bootstrap sample, tasks are resampled with replacement and the pairwise win rate / skill score are recomputed. -The intervals correspond to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of these bootstrap distributions, -capturing how model comparisons vary under alternative benchmark compositions. -""" - - -CITATION_CHRONOS = """ -``` -@article{ansari2024chronos, - title={Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series}, - author={Ansari, Abdul Fatir and Stella, Lorenzo and Turkmen, Caner and Zhang, Xiyuan, and Mercado, Pedro and Shen, Huibin and Shchur, Oleksandr and Rangapuram, Syama Syndar and Pineda Arango, Sebastian and Kapoor, Shubham and Zschiegner, Jasper and Maddix, Danielle C. and Wang, Hao and Mahoney, Michael W. and Torkkola, Kari and Gordon Wilson, Andrew and Bohlke-Schneider, Michael and Wang, Yuyang}, - journal={Transactions on Machine Learning Research}, - issn={2835-8856}, - year={2024}, - url={https://openreview.net/forum?id=gerNCVqqtR} -} -``` -""" diff --git a/src/task_groups.py b/src/task_groups.py deleted file mode 100644 index 715fb9375e53bf77e742612e27e7dddd91ac8429..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/src/task_groups.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,209 +0,0 @@ -"""Task groupings for filtering the leaderboard by subsets.""" - -# All tasks in the benchmark (100 tasks) -ALL_TASKS = [ - "ETT_15T", "ETT_1D", "ETT_1H", "ETT_1W", - "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", - "M_DENSE_1D", "M_DENSE_1H", - "SZ_TAXI_15T", "SZ_TAXI_1H", - "australian_tourism", - "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "bizitobs_l2c_5T", - "boomlet_1062", "boomlet_1209", "boomlet_1225", "boomlet_1230", "boomlet_1282", - "boomlet_1487", "boomlet_1631", "boomlet_1676", "boomlet_1855", "boomlet_1975", - "boomlet_2187", "boomlet_285", "boomlet_619", "boomlet_772", "boomlet_963", - "ecdc_ili", - "entsoe_15T", "entsoe_1H", "entsoe_30T", - "epf_be", "epf_de", "epf_fr", "epf_np", "epf_pjm", - "ercot_1D", "ercot_1H", "ercot_1M", "ercot_1W", - "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_stores_1W", - "favorita_transactions_1D", "favorita_transactions_1M", "favorita_transactions_1W", - "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro", - "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro", - "gvar", - "hermes", - "hierarchical_sales_1D", "hierarchical_sales_1W", - "hospital", "hospital_admissions_1D", "hospital_admissions_1W", - "jena_weather_10T", "jena_weather_1D", "jena_weather_1H", - "kdd_cup_2022_10T", "kdd_cup_2022_1D", "kdd_cup_2022_30T", - "m5_1D", "m5_1M", "m5_1W", - "proenfo_gfc12", "proenfo_gfc14", "proenfo_gfc17", - "redset_15T", "redset_1H", "redset_5T", - "restaurant", - "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rohlik_sales_1W", - "rossmann_1D", "rossmann_1W", - "solar_1D", "solar_1W", "solar_with_weather_15T", "solar_with_weather_1H", - "uci_air_quality_1D", "uci_air_quality_1H", - "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1D/new", - "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new", - "uk_covid_utla_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative", - "us_consumption_1M", "us_consumption_1Q", "us_consumption_1Y", - "walmart", - "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism", -] - -# Mini benchmark - representative subset (20 tasks) -MINI_TASKS = [ - "jena_weather_1H", - "M_DENSE_1D", - "bizitobs_l2c_5T", - "rohlik_orders_1D", - "boomlet_1282", - "rossmann_1D", - "rossmann_1W", - "boomlet_1676", - "solar_with_weather_1H", - "boomlet_619", - "uci_air_quality_1H", - "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", - "us_consumption_1Y", - "epf_np", - "world_co2_emissions", - "ETT_15T", - "ETT_1H", - "proenfo_gfc14", - "hospital_admissions_1D", - "hospital_admissions_1W", -] - -# Frequency-based groupings -FREQUENCY_GROUPS = { - "Sub-hourly": [ - # T (1 minute) - "boomlet_1225", "boomlet_1282", "boomlet_285", "boomlet_619", "boomlet_772", "boomlet_963", - # 5T (5 minutes) - "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", "bizitobs_l2c_5T", "redset_5T", - "boomlet_1062", "boomlet_1209", "boomlet_1230", "boomlet_1487", - # 10T (10 minutes) - "jena_weather_10T", "kdd_cup_2022_10T", - # 15T (15 minutes) - "ETT_15T", "SZ_TAXI_15T", "entsoe_15T", "redset_15T", "solar_with_weather_15T", - # 30T (30 minutes) - "entsoe_30T", "kdd_cup_2022_30T", "boomlet_1631", "boomlet_1676", - ], - "Hourly": [ - "ETT_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "M_DENSE_1H", "SZ_TAXI_1H", - "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "entsoe_1H", "ercot_1H", - "epf_be", "epf_de", "epf_fr", "epf_np", "epf_pjm", - "jena_weather_1H", - "proenfo_gfc12", "proenfo_gfc14", "proenfo_gfc17", - "redset_1H", "solar_with_weather_1H", "uci_air_quality_1H", - "boomlet_1855", "boomlet_1975", "boomlet_2187", - ], - "Daily": [ - "ETT_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "M_DENSE_1D", - "ercot_1D", "kdd_cup_2022_1D", "solar_1D", - "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_transactions_1D", - "hierarchical_sales_1D", "m5_1D", - "restaurant", - "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rossmann_1D", - "jena_weather_1D", "uci_air_quality_1D", - "hospital_admissions_1D", - "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1D/new", - ], - "Weekly": [ - "ETT_1W", "ercot_1W", "solar_1W", - "favorita_stores_1W", "favorita_transactions_1W", - "hierarchical_sales_1W", "m5_1W", - "hermes", "walmart", - "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1W", "rossmann_1W", - "ecdc_ili", - "hospital_admissions_1W", - "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new", "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative", - ], - "Monthly+": [ - # Monthly - "ercot_1M", - "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_transactions_1M", "m5_1M", - "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro", - "hospital", - "us_consumption_1M", - # Quarterly - "australian_tourism", "gvar", - "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro", - "us_consumption_1Q", - # Yearly - "us_consumption_1Y", - "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism", - ], -} - -# Domain-based groupings -DOMAIN_GROUPS = { - "Energy": [ - "ETT_15T", "ETT_1D", "ETT_1H", "ETT_1W", - "entsoe_15T", "entsoe_1H", "entsoe_30T", - "epf_be", "epf_de", "epf_fr", "epf_np", "epf_pjm", - "ercot_1D", "ercot_1H", "ercot_1M", "ercot_1W", - "kdd_cup_2022_10T", "kdd_cup_2022_1D", "kdd_cup_2022_30T", - "proenfo_gfc12", "proenfo_gfc14", "proenfo_gfc17", - "solar_1D", "solar_1W", "solar_with_weather_15T", "solar_with_weather_1H", - ], - "Retail": [ - "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_stores_1W", - "favorita_transactions_1D", "favorita_transactions_1M", "favorita_transactions_1W", - "hermes", - "hierarchical_sales_1D", "hierarchical_sales_1W", - "m5_1D", "m5_1M", "m5_1W", - "restaurant", - "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rohlik_sales_1W", - "rossmann_1D", "rossmann_1W", - "walmart", - ], - "Nature": [ - "jena_weather_10T", "jena_weather_1D", "jena_weather_1H", - "uci_air_quality_1D", "uci_air_quality_1H", - ], - "Cloud": [ - "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "bizitobs_l2c_5T", - "boomlet_1062", "boomlet_1209", "boomlet_1225", "boomlet_1230", "boomlet_1282", - "boomlet_1487", "boomlet_1631", "boomlet_1676", "boomlet_1855", "boomlet_1975", - "boomlet_2187", "boomlet_285", "boomlet_619", "boomlet_772", "boomlet_963", - "redset_15T", "redset_1H", "redset_5T", - ], - "Health": [ - "ecdc_ili", - "hospital", "hospital_admissions_1D", "hospital_admissions_1W", - "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1D/new", - "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new", - "uk_covid_utla_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative", - ], - "Econ": [ - "australian_tourism", - "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro", - "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro", - "gvar", - "us_consumption_1M", "us_consumption_1Q", "us_consumption_1Y", - "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism", - ], - "Mobility": [ - "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", - "M_DENSE_1D", "M_DENSE_1H", - "SZ_TAXI_15T", "SZ_TAXI_1H", - ], -} - - -def get_task_group(group_type: str, group_value: str | None = None) -> list[str]: - """Get the list of tasks for a given group type and value. - - Args: - group_type: One of "full", "mini", "frequency", "domain" - group_value: Required for "frequency" and "domain" types - - Returns: - List of task names belonging to the group - """ - if group_type == "full": - return ALL_TASKS - elif group_type == "mini": - return MINI_TASKS - elif group_type == "frequency": - if group_value is None: - raise ValueError("group_value required for frequency grouping") - return FREQUENCY_GROUPS[group_value] - elif group_type == "domain": - if group_value is None: - raise ValueError("group_value required for domain grouping") - return DOMAIN_GROUPS[group_value] - else: - raise ValueError(f"Unknown group_type: {group_type}") diff --git a/src/utils.py b/src/utils.py deleted file mode 100644 index 0f7777a9fe91e9e50f4fa0b240d8cb1aa1c945a5..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/src/utils.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,374 +0,0 @@ -import altair as alt -import fev -import pandas as pd -import pandas.io.formats.style - -# Color constants - all colors defined in one place - -COLORS = { - "dl_text": "#5A7FA5", - "st_text": "#A5795A", - # "st_text": "#666666", - "bar_fill": "#8d5eb7", - "error_bar": "#222222", - "point": "#111111", - "text_white": "white", - "text_black": "black", - "text_default": "#111", - "gold": "#F7D36B", - "silver": "#E5E7EB", - "bronze": "#E6B089", - "leakage_impute": "#3B82A0", - "failure_impute": "#E07B39", -} -HEATMAP_COLOR_SCHEME = "purplegreen" - -# Model configuration: (url, org, zero_shot, model_type) -MODEL_CONFIG = { - # Chronos Models - "chronos_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-t5-tiny", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_mini": ("amazon/chronos-t5-mini", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_small": ("amazon/chronos-t5-small", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_base": ("amazon/chronos-t5-base", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_large": ("amazon/chronos-t5-large", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_bolt_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-tiny", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_bolt_mini": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-mini", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_bolt_small": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-small", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_bolt_base": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos-bolt": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos-2": ("amazon/chronos-2", "AWS", True, "DL"), - # Moirai Models - "moirai_large": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-large", "Salesforce", True, "DL"), - "moirai_base": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-base", "Salesforce", True, "DL"), - "moirai_small": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "DL"), - "moirai-2.0": ("Salesforce/moirai-2.0-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "DL"), - # TimesFM Models - "timesfm": ("google/timesfm-1.0-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "DL"), - "timesfm-2.0": ("google/timesfm-2.0-500m-pytorch", "Google", True, "DL"), - "timesfm-2.5": ("google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "DL"), - # Toto Models - "toto-1.0": ("Datadog/Toto-Open-Base-1.0", "Datadog", True, "DL"), - # Other Models - "tirex": ("NX-AI/TiRex", "NX-AI", True, "DL"), - "tabpfn-ts": ("Prior-Labs/TabPFN-v2-reg", "Prior Labs", True, "DL"), - "sundial-base": ("thuml/sundial-base-128m", "Tsinghua University", True, "DL"), - "ttm-r2": ("ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2", "IBM", True, "DL"), - # Task-specific models - "stat. ensemble": ( - "https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", - "—", - False, - "ST", - ), - "autoarima": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), - "autotheta": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), - "autoets": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), - "seasonalnaive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), - "seasonal naive": ( - "https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", - "—", - False, - "ST", - ), - "drift": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), - "naive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), -} - - -ALL_METRICS = { - "SQL": ( - "SQL: Scaled Quantile Loss", - "The [Scaled Quantile Loss (SQL)](https://auto.gluon.ai/dev/tutorials/timeseries/forecasting-metrics.html#autogluon.timeseries.metrics.SQL) is a **scale-invariant** metric for evaluating **probabilistic** forecasts.", - ), - "MASE": ( - "MASE: Mean Absolute Scaled Error", - "The [Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE)](https://auto.gluon.ai/dev/tutorials/timeseries/forecasting-metrics.html#autogluon.timeseries.metrics.MASE) is a **scale-invariant** metric for evaluating **point** forecasts.", - ), - "WQL": ( - "WQL: Weighted Quantile Loss", - "The [Weighted Quantile Loss (WQL)](https://auto.gluon.ai/dev/tutorials/timeseries/forecasting-metrics.html#autogluon.timeseries.metrics.WQL), is a **scale-dependent** metric for evaluating **probabilistic** forecasts.", - ), - "WAPE": ( - "WAPE: Weighted Absolute Percentage Error", - "The [Weighted Absolute Percentage Error (WAPE)](https://auto.gluon.ai/dev/tutorials/timeseries/forecasting-metrics.html#autogluon.timeseries.metrics.WAPE) is a **scale-dependent** metric for evaluating **point** forecasts.", - ), -} - - -def format_metric_name(metric_name: str): - return ALL_METRICS[metric_name][0] - - -def get_metric_description(metric_name: str): - return ALL_METRICS[metric_name][1] - - -def get_model_link(model_name): - config = MODEL_CONFIG.get(model_name.lower()) - if not config or not config[0]: - return "" - url = config[0] - return url if url.startswith("https:") else f"https://huggingface.co/{url}" - - -def get_model_organization(model_name): - config = MODEL_CONFIG.get(model_name.lower()) - return config[1] if config else "—" - - -def get_zero_shot_status(model_name): - config = MODEL_CONFIG.get(model_name.lower()) - return "✓" if config and config[2] else "×" - - -def get_model_type(model_name): - config = MODEL_CONFIG.get(model_name.lower()) - return config[3] if config else "—" - - -def highlight_model_type_color(cell): - config = MODEL_CONFIG.get(cell.lower()) - if config: - color = COLORS["dl_text"] if config[3] == "DL" else COLORS["st_text"] - return f"font-weight: bold; color: {color}" - return "font-weight: bold" - - -def format_leaderboard(df: pd.DataFrame): - df = df.copy() - df["skill_score"] = df["skill_score"].round(1) - df["win_rate"] = df["win_rate"].round(1) - df["zero_shot"] = df["model_name"].apply(get_zero_shot_status) - # Format leakage column: convert to int for all models, 0 for non-zero-shot - df["training_corpus_overlap"] = df.apply( - lambda row: int(round(row["training_corpus_overlap"] * 100)) if row["zero_shot"] == "✓" else 0, - axis=1, - ) - df["link"] = df["model_name"].apply(get_model_link) - df["org"] = df["model_name"].apply(get_model_organization) - df = df[ - [ - "model_name", - "win_rate", - "skill_score", - "median_inference_time_s_per100", - "training_corpus_overlap", - "num_failures", - "zero_shot", - "org", - "link", - ] - ] - return ( - df.style.map(highlight_model_type_color, subset=["model_name"]) - .map(lambda x: "font-weight: bold", subset=["zero_shot"]) - .apply( - lambda x: ["background-color: #f8f9fa" if i % 2 == 1 else "" for i in range(len(x))], - axis=0, - ) - ) - - -def construct_bar_chart(df: pd.DataFrame, col: str, metric_name: str): - label = "Skill Score" if col == "skill_score" else "Win Rate" - - tooltip = [ - alt.Tooltip("model_name:N"), - alt.Tooltip(f"{col}:Q", format=".2f"), - alt.Tooltip(f"{col}_lower:Q", title="95% CI Lower", format=".2f"), - alt.Tooltip(f"{col}_upper:Q", title="95% CI Upper", format=".2f"), - ] - - base_encode = { - "y": alt.Y("model_name:N", title="Forecasting Model", sort=None), - "tooltip": tooltip, - } - - bars = ( - alt.Chart(df) - .mark_bar(color=COLORS["bar_fill"], cornerRadius=4) - .encode( - x=alt.X(f"{col}:Q", title=f"{label} (%)", scale=alt.Scale(zero=False)), - **base_encode, - ) - ) - - error_bars = ( - alt.Chart(df) - .mark_errorbar(ticks={"height": 5}, color=COLORS["error_bar"]) - .encode( - y=alt.Y("model_name:N", title=None, sort=None), - x=alt.X(f"{col}_lower:Q", title=f"{label} (%)"), - x2=alt.X2(f"{col}_upper:Q"), - tooltip=tooltip, - ) - ) - - points = ( - alt.Chart(df) - .mark_point(filled=True, color=COLORS["point"]) - .encode(x=alt.X(f"{col}:Q", title=f"{label} (%)"), **base_encode) - ) - - return ( - (bars + error_bars + points) - .properties(height=500, title=f"{label} ({metric_name}) with 95% CIs") - .configure_title(fontSize=16) - ) - - -def construct_pairwise_chart(df: pd.DataFrame, col: str, metric_name: str): - config = { - "win_rate": ("Win Rate", [0, 100], 50, f"abs(datum.{col} - 50) > 30"), - "skill_score": ("Skill Score", [-15, 15], 0, f"abs(datum.{col}) > 10"), - } - cbar_label, domain, domain_mid, text_condition = config[col] - - df = df.copy() - for c in [col, f"{col}_lower", f"{col}_upper"]: - df[c] *= 100 - - model_order = df.groupby("model_1")[col].mean().sort_values(ascending=False).index.tolist() - - tooltip = [ - alt.Tooltip("model_1:N", title="Model 1"), - alt.Tooltip("model_2:N", title="Model 2"), - alt.Tooltip(f"{col}:Q", title=cbar_label.split(" ")[0], format=".1f"), - alt.Tooltip(f"{col}_lower:Q", title="95% CI Lower", format=".1f"), - alt.Tooltip(f"{col}_upper:Q", title="95% CI Upper", format=".1f"), - ] - - base = alt.Chart(df).encode( - x=alt.X( - "model_2:N", - sort=model_order, - title="Model 2", - axis=alt.Axis(orient="top", labelAngle=-90), - ), - y=alt.Y("model_1:N", sort=model_order, title="Model 1"), - ) - - heatmap = base.mark_rect().encode( - color=alt.Color( - f"{col}:Q", - legend=None, - scale=alt.Scale( - scheme=HEATMAP_COLOR_SCHEME, - domain=domain, - domainMid=domain_mid, - clamp=True, - ), - ), - tooltip=tooltip, - ) - - text_main = base.mark_text(dy=-8, fontSize=8, baseline="top", yOffset=5).encode( - text=alt.Text(f"{col}:Q", format=".1f"), - color=alt.condition( - text_condition, - alt.value(COLORS["text_white"]), - alt.value(COLORS["text_black"]), - ), - tooltip=tooltip, - ) - - return ( - (heatmap + text_main) - .properties( - height=550, - title={ - "text": f"Pairwise {cbar_label} ({metric_name}) with 95% CIs", - "fontSize": 16, - }, - ) - .configure_axis(labelFontSize=11, titleFontSize=13, titleFontWeight="bold") - .resolve_scale(color="independent") - ) - - -def construct_pivot_table_from_df(errors: pd.DataFrame, metric_name: str) -> pd.io.formats.style.Styler: - """Construct styled pivot table from precomputed DataFrame.""" - - def highlight_by_position(styler): - rank_colors = {1: COLORS["gold"], 2: COLORS["silver"], 3: COLORS["bronze"]} - - for row_idx in errors.index: - row_ranks = errors.loc[row_idx].rank(method="min") - for col_idx in errors.columns: - rank = row_ranks[col_idx] - style_parts = [] - - # Rank background colors - if rank <= 3: - style_parts.append(f"background-color: {rank_colors[rank]}") - else: - style_parts.append(f"color: {COLORS['text_default']}") - - if style_parts: - styler = styler.map( - lambda x, s="; ".join(style_parts): s, - subset=pd.IndexSlice[row_idx:row_idx, col_idx:col_idx], - ) - return styler - - return highlight_by_position(errors.style).format(precision=3) - - -def construct_pivot_table( - summaries: pd.DataFrame, - metric_name: str, - baseline_model: str, - leakage_imputation_model: str, -) -> pd.io.formats.style.Styler: - errors = fev.pivot_table(summaries=summaries, metric_column=metric_name, task_columns=["task_name"]) - train_overlap = ( - fev.pivot_table( - summaries=summaries, - metric_column="trained_on_this_dataset", - task_columns=["task_name"], - ) - .fillna(False) - .astype(bool) - ) - - is_imputed_baseline = errors.isna() - is_leakage_imputed = train_overlap - - # Handle imputations - errors = errors.mask(train_overlap, errors[leakage_imputation_model], axis=0) - for col in errors.columns: - if col != baseline_model: - errors[col] = errors[col].fillna(errors[baseline_model]) - - errors = errors[errors.rank(axis=1).mean().sort_values().index] - errors.index.rename("Task name", inplace=True) - - def highlight_by_position(styler): - rank_colors = {1: COLORS["gold"], 2: COLORS["silver"], 3: COLORS["bronze"]} - - for row_idx in errors.index: - row_ranks = errors.loc[row_idx].rank(method="min") - for col_idx in errors.columns: - rank = row_ranks[col_idx] - style_parts = [] - - # Rank background colors - if rank <= 3: - style_parts.append(f"background-color: {rank_colors[rank]}") - - # Imputation text colors - if is_leakage_imputed.loc[row_idx, col_idx]: - style_parts.append(f"color: {COLORS['leakage_impute']}") - elif is_imputed_baseline.loc[row_idx, col_idx]: - style_parts.append(f"color: {COLORS['failure_impute']}") - elif not style_parts or (len(style_parts) == 1 and "font-weight" in style_parts[0]): - style_parts.append(f"color: {COLORS['text_default']}") - - if style_parts: - styler = styler.map( - lambda x, s="; ".join(style_parts): s, - subset=pd.IndexSlice[row_idx:row_idx, col_idx:col_idx], - ) - return styler - - return highlight_by_position(errors.style).format(precision=3) diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index d8258af96f141a41570aa8f1c84cdc5491c72052..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-1.0,91.42857142857143,41.8883400084654,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,89.64285714285714,42.5157996441094,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,40.26605685743614,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.14285714285714,38.09940067233815,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,35.579899495667256,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,61.07142857142858,34.44493255866505,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.285714285714285,30.890375999745544,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.857142857142854,31.63477113942893,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,33.75,10.28649321258931,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 -AutoARIMA,32.32142857142858,11.154754181413495,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,27.500000000000004,6.832233342669413,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.107142857142858,9.00813293024486,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 -Naive,23.214285714285715,-25.50199780067157,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.892857142857144,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 -Drift,8.928571428571429,-32.85429096552939,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 29e578e2e0323a149a309b46650bc43f82f58ee6..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-1.0,91.78571428571428,63.05871546601058,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,91.42857142857143,63.92789671191335,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.57142857142857,61.98663044796851,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.35714285714285,60.87156591539495,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.21428571428572,58.41610987284718,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,59.64285714285715,56.647735223836015,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,58.57142857142858,54.85929055283013,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.50000000000001,53.05789136035014,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,38.03571428571428,32.58752067086065,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.82142857142856,20.1052436267542,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 -AutoETS,28.035714285714285,-26.853793211441058,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,-2.1145171067117996,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.107142857142854,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.571428571428573,-102.14853969808834,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.214285714285715,-110.2431874466197,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index eec1c903a209835f36ed7d35dcf4684fe5178555..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.78571428571428,50.572763239812836,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,91.07142857142858,47.121114882947566,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.42857142857142,46.247719637805126,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.49999999999999,44.52063533547439,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.5,42.792548583451826,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.78571428571429,43.22422155533027,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.71428571428571,39.893668788246494,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,60.71428571428571,41.96635843416393,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,32.32142857142857,15.58065226385924,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 -AutoARIMA,28.392857142857142,14.643401272886948,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 -AutoETS,23.75,5.6618608592632125,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,23.57142857142857,12.660865629460227,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 -Naive,23.21428571428571,4.49837332329478,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.321428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 -Drift,8.928571428571429,-1.7537851144645122,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index a6c14636f7927ce24469253ce4f1eae74c16b4f7..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.5,66.94397676110452,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,90.35714285714286,64.45690397421868,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285712,63.753748722726,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.71428571428571,62.74382048051918,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.92857142857143,61.08750955081813,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.00000000000001,59.171399643395425,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.357142857142854,58.158162956775406,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.928571428571445,59.213728716592804,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.25,33.35224855510223,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 -Stat. Ensemble,32.67857142857142,20.842955409190168,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 -AutoETS,24.82142857142857,-39.99504769759261,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,7.361982670066736,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.035714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.214285714285715,-64.97889014234586,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.9285714285714293,-71.7471743876533,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 07c4b8fd72cf2537cbdfe12a1cbf3d43aec91c4b..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.063,0.027 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.02,0.072 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.061,0.027,0.114 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.053,0.164 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.037,0.182 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.094,0.224 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.15,0.075,0.231 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.266,0.45 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.264,0.448 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.295,0.468 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.267,0.469 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.377,0.689 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.529 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.414,0.702 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.011,-0.028,0.059 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,0.009,0.071 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.022,0.128 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.168 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.123,0.07,0.182 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.101,0.231 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.092,0.234 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.272,0.454 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.266,0.453 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.296,0.47 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.281,0.468 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.386,0.689 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.331,0.534 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.421,0.704 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.078,0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.077,-0.009 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.0,0.077 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.115 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.041,0.137 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.136,0.068,0.199 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.126,0.059,0.207 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.261,0.415 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.254,0.415 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.283,0.436 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.268,0.433 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.366,0.676 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.318,0.501 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.402,0.69 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.065,-0.129,-0.028 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.146,-0.022 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.083,0.0 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.039,0.014,0.065 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,-0.026,0.115 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.038,0.166 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.018,0.172 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.233,0.392 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.231,0.382 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.412 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.235,0.41 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.507,0.342,0.658 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.295,0.476 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.385,0.676 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.056 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.202,-0.056 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.13,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.041,-0.07,-0.015 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.017,-0.056,0.065 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.425,0.825,0.068,-0.002,0.135 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.02,0.138 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.282,0.201,0.366 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.275,0.203,0.354 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.237,0.386 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.292,0.208,0.382 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.487,0.322,0.638 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.356,0.268,0.451 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.369,0.657 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.223,-0.038 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.14,-0.222,-0.075 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.159,-0.043 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.059,-0.129,0.025 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.018,-0.069,0.053 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.051,-0.023,0.126 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.041,-0.034,0.11 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.269,0.182,0.361 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.262,0.175,0.353 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.22,0.377 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.379 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.322,0.626 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.344,0.246,0.453 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.358,0.646 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.288,-0.104 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.3,-0.112 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.157,-0.248,-0.073 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.198,-0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.575,-0.073,-0.156,0.002 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.054,-0.144,0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.128,0.086 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.23,0.124,0.336 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.222,0.121,0.337 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.353 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.24,0.131,0.358 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.449,0.297,0.601 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.185,0.434 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.341,0.624 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.176,-0.301,-0.081 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.102 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.144,-0.261,-0.063 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.104,-0.208,-0.019 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.161,0.019 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.043,-0.123,0.033 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.095,0.114 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.095,0.36 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.231,0.096,0.351 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.266,0.154,0.375 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.249,0.114,0.367 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.455,0.285,0.6 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.316,0.178,0.443 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.485,0.326,0.621 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.817,-0.362 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.833,-0.374 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.502,-0.711,-0.353 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.449,-0.646,-0.304 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.393,-0.578,-0.251 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.369,-0.564,-0.223 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.298,-0.505,-0.141 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.312,-0.562,-0.106 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.475,0.274,0.675,-0.01,-0.058,0.025 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,-0.013,0.087 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.014,-0.091,0.087 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.285,0.06,0.51 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.775,0.624,0.925,0.103,-0.009,0.19 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.325,0.11,0.536 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.811,-0.358 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.546,-0.83,-0.363 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.708,-0.341 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.619,-0.301 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.379,-0.548,-0.255 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.355,-0.545,-0.212 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.286,-0.508,-0.137 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.3,-0.541,-0.106 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.525,0.325,0.726,0.01,-0.026,0.055 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.046,-0.017,0.107 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.725,0.549,0.9,0.024,-0.086,0.103 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.292,0.063,0.513 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.675,0.95,0.112,0.008,0.197 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.331,0.115,0.536 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.603,-0.881,-0.419 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.887,-0.421 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.774,-0.394 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.701,-0.356 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.628,-0.31 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.606,-0.282 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.348,-0.546,-0.206 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.363,-0.6,-0.182 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.096,0.013 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.049,-0.12,0.017 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.024,-0.139,0.055 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.258,0.05,0.468 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.068,-0.06,0.171 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.299,0.104,0.491 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.883,-0.364 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.881,-0.391 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.762,-0.366 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.695,-0.307 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.412,-0.619,-0.262 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.388,-0.611,-0.225 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.317,-0.559,-0.151 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.331,-0.581,-0.129 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.014,-0.096,0.083 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.1,0.451,-0.024,-0.115,0.079 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.058,0.122 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.275,0.032,0.5 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.026,0.154 -AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.315,0.081,0.528 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.16,-2.211,-0.604 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.183,-2.214,-0.628 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.101,-2.085,-0.578 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.027,-1.923,-0.52 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.948,-1.762,-0.475 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.673,-0.476 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.816,-1.505,-0.423 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.836,-1.501,-0.399 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.399,-1.041,-0.063 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.413,-1.052,-0.067 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.347,-0.881,-0.053 -Naive,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.379,-1.0,-0.033 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,-0.255,-0.874,0.087 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.031,0.085 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.122,-0.477 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.148,-0.496 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-1.003,-0.466 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.909,-0.418 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.552,-0.822,-0.365 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.525,-0.83,-0.326 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.447,-0.766,-0.228 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.463,-0.796,-0.216 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.075,0.376,-0.115,-0.235,0.009 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.175,0.05,0.325,-0.126,-0.245,-0.008 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.073,-0.206,0.057 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.181,-0.027 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,0.203,-0.096,0.466 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.247,-0.04,0.497 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.286,-2.359,-0.705 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.311,-2.381,-0.728 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.224,-2.223,-0.673 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.146,-2.086,-0.627 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.913,-0.584 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.828,-0.559 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.922,-1.659,-0.517 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.943,-1.639,-0.484 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.481,-1.157,-0.124 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.495,-1.156,-0.13 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.426,-0.966,-0.116 -Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.46,-1.12,-0.088 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.093,-0.032 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.329,-0.989,0.038 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 7b9b57f258953de62b81deef979e11ae38ad66da..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.08,0.018 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.024,0.076 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,0.022,0.104 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.064,0.169 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.071,0.211 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.182,0.124,0.236 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.291 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.369,0.537 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.448,0.619 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.666,0.482,0.815 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.54,0.72 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.521,0.73 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.817,0.735,0.877 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.824,0.744,0.882 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.018,0.074 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.017,0.09 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.078,0.024,0.139 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.069,0.2 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.134,0.261 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.232,0.162,0.3 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.381,0.55 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.47,0.623 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.674,0.501,0.819 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.555,0.727 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.533,0.735 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.822,0.746,0.879 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.828,0.756,0.883 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.029,-0.082,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.099,-0.017 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.014,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.143 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.165 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.158,0.095,0.217 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.19,0.124,0.257 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.367,0.511 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.451,0.594 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.476,0.811 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.534,0.71 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.519,0.713 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.812,0.731,0.872 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.819,0.742,0.877 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.059,-0.116,-0.023 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.162,-0.025 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.086,0.013 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.09 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.013,0.151 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.073,0.186 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.166,0.079,0.247 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.343,0.497 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.425,0.585 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.453,0.808 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.513,0.698 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.499,0.709 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.806,0.72,0.869 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.814,0.729,0.874 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.126,-0.203,-0.068 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.249,-0.074 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.167,-0.039 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.063,-0.099,-0.03 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.041,-0.045,0.091 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.017,0.14 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.114,0.03,0.194 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.305,0.459 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.48,0.391,0.559 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.628,0.423,0.798 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.593,0.49,0.673 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.469,0.689 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.794,0.704,0.859 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.802,0.716,0.864 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.268,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.14,-0.198,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.108,-0.178,-0.013 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.043,-0.1,0.043 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.037,0.117 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,0.006,0.138 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.281,0.436 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.378,0.534 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.404,0.793 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.487,0.657 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.454,0.668 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.704,0.848 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.794,0.716,0.854 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.31,-0.142 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.352,-0.155 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.187,-0.277,-0.105 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.229,-0.079 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.162,-0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.041,-0.133,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.038,-0.082,0.139 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.33,0.236,0.434 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.435,0.328,0.531 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.597,0.372,0.786 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.558,0.453,0.645 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.67 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.777,0.686,0.844 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.7,0.851 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.271,-0.41,-0.151 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.429,-0.193 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.235,-0.346,-0.141 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.2,-0.328,-0.086 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.129,-0.24,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.083,-0.161,-0.006 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.04,-0.162,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.205,0.404 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.412,0.312,0.505 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.586,0.354,0.779 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.54,0.433,0.639 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.531,0.407,0.643 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.681,0.835 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.696,0.841 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.825,-1.161,-0.584 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.222,-0.615 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.773,-1.043,-0.58 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-0.989,-0.521 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.848,-0.438 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.773,-0.392 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.493,-0.768,-0.309 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.677,-0.258 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.875,0.156,0.073,0.244 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.434,0.08,0.713 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.476 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.326,0.18,0.457 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.667,0.521,0.764 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.679,0.545,0.773 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.625,-0.811 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.215,-1.654,-0.887 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.466,-0.82 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.042,-1.411,-0.739 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.921,-1.267,-0.642 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.843,-1.145,-0.609 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.77,-1.134,-0.488 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.702,-1.019,-0.454 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.125,0.475,-0.185,-0.323,-0.078 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.363,-0.063,0.684 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.089,0.375 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.201,-0.013,0.369 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.605,0.443,0.725 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.465,0.735 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.991,-4.394,-0.932 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.072,-4.534,-1.004 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.92,-4.291,-0.907 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.837,-4.196,-0.83 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.688,-3.95,-0.734 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.595,-3.825,-0.677 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.484,-3.678,-0.591 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.414,-3.528,-0.549 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.767,-2.48,-0.087 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.569,-2.162,0.059 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.25,-1.708,0.289 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.269,-1.702,0.285 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.34,-0.612,0.679 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.363,-0.555,0.692 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.764,-2.575,-1.173 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.831,-2.661,-1.245 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.686,-2.451,-1.145 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.316,-1.054 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.456,-2.054,-0.962 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.355,-1.914,-0.951 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.262,-1.821,-0.828 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.175,-1.772,-0.765 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.515,-0.908,-0.255 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.278,-0.6,-0.097 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.2,-0.407,0.631 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.021,-0.413,0.245 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.495,0.359,0.605 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.514,0.382,0.62 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.709,-1.086 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.77,-1.139 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.631,-2.486,-1.077 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.437,-0.997 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-2.214,-0.883 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.307,-2.016,-0.832 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.215,-2.027,-0.704 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.13,-1.801,-0.687 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.483,-0.841,-0.219 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.252,-0.585,0.013 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.212,-0.398,0.63 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.021,-0.325,0.292 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.505,0.274,0.671 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.524,0.302,0.688 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.472,-7.119,-2.772 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.604,-7.24,-2.94 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.318,-6.839,-2.721 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-4.166,-6.661,-2.569 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.861,-6.072,-2.376 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-5.597,-2.374 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.478,-5.427,-2.188 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.306,-5.057,-2.139 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.999,-3.24,-1.086 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.53,-2.642,-0.795 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.516,-2.117,0.38 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.98,-1.531,-0.56 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-1.021,-2.041,-0.378 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.057 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.691,-7.48,-2.9 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.828,-7.54,-3.102 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.531,-7.137,-2.871 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.373,-6.957,-2.696 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.056,-6.361,-2.518 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.85,-5.831,-2.522 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.658,-5.689,-2.332 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.479,-5.272,-2.287 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.119,-3.399,-1.198 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.632,-2.779,-0.87 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.569,-2.25,0.357 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.059,-1.634,-0.617 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-1.102,-2.206,-0.433 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.061,-0.024 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 23a326d9739a05f6b7af9995b6ff438fc5e46b0f..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.065,-0.014,0.173 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.03,0.14 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.109,0.032,0.209 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.059,0.226 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.129,0.084,0.186 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.259 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.099,0.198 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.319,0.51 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.312,0.531 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.341,0.599 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.333,0.532 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.382,0.572 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.388,0.617 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.42,0.599 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.07,-0.21,0.014 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.048,0.069 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,-0.0,0.1 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.076,0.017,0.14 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,-0.015,0.137 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.053,0.182 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.089,-0.011,0.164 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.473 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.29,0.482 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.315,0.574 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.314,0.488 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.353,0.545 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.581 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.397,0.565 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.162,-0.031 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.017,-0.074,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.009,0.083 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.053,0.014,0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.065,0.148 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.024,0.112 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.285,0.453 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.28,0.472 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.307,0.558 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.303,0.473 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.35,0.527 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.364,0.568 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.472,0.391,0.548 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.264,-0.033 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.091,0.009 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,0.004,0.056 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.05,0.081 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.124 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,0.95,0.044,-0.063,0.112 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.258,0.427 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.265,0.443 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.412,0.283,0.547 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.286,0.45 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.419,0.321,0.511 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.35,0.545 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.377,0.533 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.292,-0.062 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.162,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.064,-0.112,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.008,-0.075,0.05 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.003,0.096 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.014,-0.074,0.068 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.239,0.411 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.244,0.426 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.265,0.533 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.268,0.435 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.401,0.311,0.491 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.333,0.532 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.36,0.513 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.149,-0.229,-0.091 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.159,0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.056,-0.103,-0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.023,-0.089,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.008,-0.053,0.07 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.055,-0.022,0.125 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.022,-0.044,0.083 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.226,0.427 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.224,0.447 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.398,0.258,0.535 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.35,0.246,0.448 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.295,0.51 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.311,0.55 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.337,0.534 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.349,-0.115 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.137,-0.223,-0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.174,-0.069 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.083,-0.141,-0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.106,-0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.143,0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.036,-0.131,0.028 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.207,0.384 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.204,0.41 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.23,0.509 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.234,0.407 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.464 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.512 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.333,0.49 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.247,-0.11 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.196,0.011 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.126,-0.024 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.05,0.3,-0.046,-0.126,0.059 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.014,-0.073,0.069 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.022,-0.09,0.042 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.034,-0.029,0.116 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.227,0.408 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.224,0.423 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.251,0.518 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.245,0.426 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.306,0.478 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.312,0.53 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.347,0.507 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.708,-1.042,-0.469 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.898,-0.404 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.828,-0.398 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.746,-0.348 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.699,-0.314 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.746,-0.292 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.624,-0.261 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.688,-0.293 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.011,-0.045,0.063 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.105,-0.033,0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.033,-0.007,0.072 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.116,0.037,0.193 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.156,0.072,0.236 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.17,0.096,0.237 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.133,-0.453 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.93,-0.408 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.895,-0.389 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.797,-0.361 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.744,-0.323 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.808,-0.289 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.694,-0.256 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.734,-0.288 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.011,-0.067,0.043 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.095,-0.068,0.276 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.023,-0.039,0.083 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.106,-0.005,0.204 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.146,0.061,0.226 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.161,0.062,0.25 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.909,-1.495,-0.517 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.784,-1.345,-0.461 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.755,-1.264,-0.444 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.7,-1.21,-0.394 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-1.141,-0.36 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.662,-1.151,-0.347 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-1.035,-0.299 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-1.074,-0.334 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.117,-0.399,0.032 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.105,-0.381,0.063 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.08,-0.32,0.051 -AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.012,-0.2,0.142 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.057,-0.196,0.202 -AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.073,-0.137,0.197 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.135,-0.5 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-0.955,-0.458 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.898,-0.434 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.574,-0.817,-0.401 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.527,-0.77,-0.366 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.538,-0.812,-0.326 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.453,-0.687,-0.305 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.741,-0.324 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.035,-0.077,0.007 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.023,-0.09,0.037 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.074,-0.054,0.242 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.085,0.008,0.16 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.127,0.043,0.209 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.077,0.202 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.338,-0.617 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.806,-1.198,-0.545 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.777,-1.112,-0.538 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.721,-1.045,-0.472 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.669,-0.964,-0.452 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.039,-0.417 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.589,-0.866,-0.392 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.646,-0.915,-0.441 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.131,-0.239,-0.038 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.119,-0.256,0.005 -Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.012,-0.166,0.167 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.093,-0.19,-0.008 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,0.045,-0.064,0.152 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.032,0.1 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.023,-1.609,-0.634 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.891,-1.385,-0.588 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.313,-0.572 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.802,-1.198,-0.539 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.748,-1.138,-0.499 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.761,-1.22,-0.452 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-1.049,-0.418 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.13,-0.453 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.185,-0.309,-0.078 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.172,-0.293,-0.065 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.252,0.164 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.145,-0.264,-0.045 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,-0.047,-0.179,0.06 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.017,-0.096,0.115 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.492,-0.723 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.924,-1.3,-0.659 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.893,-1.214,-0.641 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.834,-1.143,-0.606 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.054,-0.562 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.792,-1.147,-0.508 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.96,-0.5 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.753,-1.028,-0.532 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.205,-0.311,-0.106 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.192,-0.333,-0.066 -Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.245,0.12 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.165,-0.253,-0.083 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.111,-0.033 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.018,-0.129,0.088 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index faf977f75a96a53de0af8f206f61f2bc55c4d5d7..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.07,-0.014,0.185 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.088,0.033,0.155 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.113,0.032,0.222 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.066,0.248 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.134,0.247 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.134,0.3 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.145,0.236 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.412,0.597 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.505,0.655 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.573,0.855 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.566,0.707 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.669,0.582,0.746 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.8,0.757,0.837 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.808,0.765,0.845 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.075,-0.227,0.013 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.019,-0.047,0.073 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.0,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.03,0.145 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.024,0.218 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.21 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.024,0.201 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.398,0.544 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.473,0.628 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.535,0.843 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.616,0.541,0.683 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.562,0.725 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.726,0.829 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.793,0.736,0.838 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.097,-0.183,-0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.02,-0.079,0.045 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.018,0.086 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.116 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,0.044,0.188 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.092,0.179 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.111,0.06,0.148 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.384,0.539 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.468,0.619 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.704,0.532,0.841 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.535,0.678 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.557,0.714 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.727,0.825 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.739,0.832 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.127,-0.285,-0.033 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.105,-0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.095,0.018 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.043,0.019,0.07 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.087,-0.014,0.174 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.11,0.064,0.155 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,-0.025,0.153 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.376,0.512 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.452,0.602 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.514,0.839 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.598,0.521,0.663 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.627,0.54,0.71 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.712,0.821 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.783,0.724,0.829 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.177,-0.33,-0.071 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.169,-0.031 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.074,-0.131,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.044,-0.075,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.047,-0.055,0.137 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,0.975,0.07,0.023,0.118 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.046,-0.056,0.104 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.347,0.496 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.423,0.589 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.494,0.835 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.498,0.651 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.523,0.693 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.764,0.7,0.813 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.715,0.821 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.235,-0.329,-0.154 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.149,-0.279,-0.025 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.126,-0.232,-0.046 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.096,-0.211,0.014 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.049,-0.159,0.053 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.024,-0.094,0.121 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.093,0.08 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.387,0.274,0.491 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.484,0.39,0.568 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.676,0.465,0.829 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.468,0.641 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.483,0.685 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.698,0.798 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.762,0.711,0.806 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.429,-0.154 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.266,-0.097 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.218,-0.101 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.123,-0.183,-0.069 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.025,0.301,-0.075,-0.134,-0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.025,-0.137,0.086 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.026,-0.135,0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.287,0.466 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.385,0.561 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.664,0.456,0.823 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.464,0.625 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.486,0.675 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.698,0.805 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.309,-0.169 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.251,-0.025 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.125,-0.173,-0.063 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.095,-0.18,0.025 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.048,-0.116,0.053 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.086,0.085 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.048,0.119 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.302,0.48 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.404,0.566 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.475,0.826 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.48,0.633 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.504,0.674 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.702,0.798 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.715,0.808 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.016,-1.48,-0.701 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.195,-0.66 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.168,-0.623 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.05,-0.601 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.713,-0.984,-0.532 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.632,-0.965,-0.378 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.873,-0.403 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.922,-0.434 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.158,0.066,0.258 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.493,0.136,0.747 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.281,0.178,0.381 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.334,0.206,0.456 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.596,0.479,0.687 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.612,0.496,0.7 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.395,-1.901,-1.02 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.689,-0.897 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.624,-0.88 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.125,-1.511,-0.826 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.432,-0.734 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.939,-1.317,-0.639 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.892,-1.278,-0.626 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.941,-1.304,-0.678 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.188,-0.348,-0.07 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.432,0.004,0.725 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.146,0.088,0.213 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.208,-0.0,0.366 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.52,0.395,0.624 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.421,0.64 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.71,-5.874,-1.34 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.437,-5.367,-1.149 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.382,-5.287,-1.137 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.298,-5.196,-1.056 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.171,-5.048,-0.977 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.09,-4.847,-0.87 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.974,-4.644,-0.837 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.046,-4.752,-0.906 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.971,-2.951,-0.157 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.759,-2.642,-0.004 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.532,-2.194,0.136 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.4,-1.897,0.22 -AutoETS,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.097,-1.154,0.533 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.128,-1.084,0.55 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.802,-2.419,-1.302 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.606,-2.154,-1.18 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.107,-1.153 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.487,-1.971,-1.087 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.381,-1.863,-0.992 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.786,-0.878 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.214,-1.668,-0.867 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.271,-1.728,-0.922 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.39,-0.615,-0.216 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.17,-0.271,-0.097 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.347,-0.157,0.687 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.074,-0.208,0.273 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.438,0.308,0.555 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.461,0.336,0.574 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.025,-2.936,-1.394 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.813,-2.641,-1.285 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.759,-2.495,-1.259 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.684,-2.448,-1.175 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-2.259,-1.095 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-2.176,-0.936 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.073,-0.945 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.452,-2.065,-1.017 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.5,-0.839,-0.259 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.263,-0.577,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.286,-0.282,0.655 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.079,-0.376,0.172 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.394,0.19,0.555 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.418,0.219,0.575 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.991,-5.118,-3.118 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.642,-4.863,-2.647 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.552,-4.721,-2.668 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.428,-4.591,-2.469 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.24,-4.339,-2.329 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.041,-3.961,-2.314 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.943,-3.911,-2.141 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.045,-3.943,-2.361 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.475,-2.196,-0.918 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.084,-1.66,-0.654 -Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.107,-1.141,0.536 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.781,-1.246,-0.445 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-0.65,-1.249,-0.234 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.06 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.196,-5.431,-3.251 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.832,-5.185,-2.788 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.738,-4.957,-2.832 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.61,-4.86,-2.621 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.414,-4.579,-2.506 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.207,-4.157,-2.457 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.105,-4.13,-2.31 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.211,-4.217,-2.506 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.577,-2.334,-0.985 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.17,-1.781,-0.726 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.147,-1.224,0.52 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.854,-1.347,-0.507 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.717,-1.355,-0.28 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.064,-0.024 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 515da64f17b35ad4ecad2c6b6e1609866e3f91e2..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Stat. Ensemble,86.30952380952381,38.477174892111854,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.5952380952381,36.87592043229662,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,72.61904761904762,36.307128150625054,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,70.23809523809524,35.90887063284529,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,62.5,32.38399314015735,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoTheta,55.952380952380956,32.52926187728524,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,55.35714285714286,33.893658153503736,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 -Drift,54.76190476190476,29.639454010750132,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,50.5952380952381,32.83344752168508,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,44.04761904761905,28.784283550853363,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,40.476190476190474,30.133730037212626,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,39.285714285714285,28.236498726371508,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Sundial-Base,21.428571428571434,19.709514878708077,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.69047619047619,15.593612409564518,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 26bac4fb6c7604998bff6213ed6a2c881da42f08..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,86.30952380952381,38.167872268859085,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,85.11904761904762,37.73601239308477,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,78.57142857142858,37.11985318962454,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.47619047619048,33.46942523050611,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoETS,62.5,29.185864234223647,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,54.761904761904766,32.77207032704751,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,31.721452512923896,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,50.000000000000014,31.399100116246935,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,50.0,31.818155351289157,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 -Drift,43.45238095238095,25.58270358587049,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,43.45238095238095,29.079628772649933,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoTheta,42.26190476190476,29.618968091908858,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,16.666666666666668,14.51026077809361,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.69047619047619,11.510639986489046,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 7a7abe93047aa3eccde63e89008ed80f0976daab..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,75.5952380952381,37.758720420324885,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,72.02380952380952,38.17771635240618,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,67.26190476190477,36.55873563764085,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.66666666666667,33.97027771884091,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,63.09523809523808,35.892561173334556,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoETS,58.92857142857143,34.84116701303258,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.333333333333336,34.28532719607597,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,35.73217052389407,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.404761904761905,30.47814442259772,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 -Drift,48.214285714285715,28.435825322795704,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,47.023809523809526,28.27751413794253,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoTheta,45.83333333333333,31.81292365948549,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.833333333333332,15.872311480991785,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,17.261904761904763,17.737236553561875,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,8.928571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index a887713caa7d8583136f60bb22ec5ed1cb01c858..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,83.33333333333334,42.09146585989647,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,76.78571428571426,40.960757226189024,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.83333333333334,38.07263005492061,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.07142857142857,39.26649292250398,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.5,38.29459805551885,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,61.9047619047619,37.99224244127147,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,58.33333333333333,35.53495230927829,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,55.35714285714286,36.76571975679717,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.976190476190474,32.793225134905136,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoARIMA,46.42857142857143,34.4461529963365,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,36.90476190476191,29.146207716766202,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 -Drift,33.92857142857143,23.82864899904751,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,19.642857142857142,17.532849713917752,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Naive,15.47619047619048,11.37195841028552,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,9.523809523809524,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 283475720c5aa1ca288473e6da03053c9c9b4363..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.025,-0.023,0.072 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.034,-0.014,0.087 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,0.016,0.067 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.417,1.0,0.09,0.025,0.15 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.053,0.126 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.069,0.021,0.135 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.051,0.221 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.03,0.143 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.054,0.213 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.068,0.168 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.143,0.081,0.197 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.302 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.195,0.346 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.289,0.476 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.026,-0.078,0.023 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.009,-0.026,0.043 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.015,-0.013,0.045 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.066,-0.018,0.15 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.064,-0.009,0.126 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.033,0.133 -TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.002,0.214 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.06,0.02,0.109 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.114,0.033,0.194 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.149 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.12,0.05,0.194 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.214,0.149,0.271 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.163,0.335 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.261,0.466 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.035,-0.095,0.014 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.009,-0.045,0.026 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.027,0.041 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.037,0.145 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.056,-0.023,0.124 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.037,-0.046,0.122 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.095,-0.024,0.22 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,0.004,0.099 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,0.025,0.194 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.044,0.143 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.045,0.186 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.156,0.255 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.159,0.328 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.264,0.451 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.042,-0.072,-0.016 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.015,-0.047,0.013 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.043,0.026 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.025,0.122 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.003,0.1 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.036,0.112 -AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.089,-0.005,0.196 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.046,-0.003,0.098 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.1,0.02,0.183 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.041,0.127 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.107,0.05,0.164 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.132,0.262 -AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.162,0.316 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.256,0.456 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.583,-0.099,-0.177,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.071,-0.176,0.018 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.062,-0.17,0.035 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.139,0.024 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.002,-0.089,0.077 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.108,0.048 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.065,0.133 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,-0.007,-0.103,0.063 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.107,0.186 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.032,-0.034,0.096 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.058,0.018,0.106 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.158,0.042,0.265 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.116,0.285 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.324,0.199,0.433 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.144,-0.056 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.144,0.009 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.142,0.022 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.111,0.003 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.002,-0.083,0.082 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.102,0.059 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.041,-0.014,0.136 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.005,-0.086,0.079 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.053,-0.043,0.132 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.034,-0.034,0.1 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.011,0.123 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.076,0.236 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.136,0.266 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.231,0.412 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.075,-0.156,-0.022 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.154,0.032 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.038,-0.139,0.044 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.126,0.035 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.051,0.097 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.063,0.093 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.06,-0.052,0.172 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.016,-0.047,0.078 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.072,-0.036,0.171 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.054,-0.009,0.113 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.079,-0.006,0.156 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.177,0.068,0.264 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.217,0.128,0.295 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.256,0.422 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.284,-0.054 -Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.115,-0.273,0.002 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.105,-0.282,0.024 -Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.098,-0.244,0.005 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.041,-0.153,0.061 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.043,-0.158,0.014 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.064,-0.208,0.05 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.048,-0.227,0.071 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.012,-0.193,0.142 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.119,0.086 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.02,-0.09,0.108 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.124,-0.064,0.234 -Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.241 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.296,0.127,0.41 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.167,-0.031 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.064,-0.122,-0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.11,-0.004 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.048,-0.109,0.003 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,0.007,-0.067,0.093 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.005,-0.086,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.016,-0.085,0.045 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.045,-0.076,0.185 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.057,-0.034,0.15 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.039,-0.007,0.091 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.064,-0.008,0.143 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.095,0.228 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.109,0.293 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.226,0.415 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.271,-0.057 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.128,-0.241,-0.034 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.118,-0.241,-0.026 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.111,-0.224,-0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.228,0.097 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.056,-0.153,0.042 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.077,-0.207,0.035 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.012,-0.165,0.162 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.06,-0.177,0.033 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.019,-0.156,0.089 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.146,0.14 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.113,0.02,0.191 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.156,0.023,0.274 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.181,0.389 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.136,-0.202,-0.073 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.175,-0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.167,-0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.09,-0.145,-0.043 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.033,-0.107,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.112,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.057,-0.128,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.094,0.106 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.04,-0.1,0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.019,-0.097,0.135 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.026,-0.016,0.079 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.036,0.202 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.107,0.235 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.301,0.198,0.389 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.245,-0.088 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.137,-0.24,-0.053 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.229,-0.048 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.196,-0.053 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.061,-0.118,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.141,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.086,-0.185,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.02,-0.121,0.083 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.068,-0.166,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.163,0.127 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.086,0.015 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,-0.0,0.194 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.15,0.086,0.21 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.282,0.162,0.388 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.305,-0.434,-0.185 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.272,-0.372,-0.176 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.342,-0.184 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.253,-0.356,-0.153 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.187,-0.361,-0.044 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.19,-0.309,-0.083 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.215,-0.358,-0.073 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.141,-0.305,0.06 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.296,-0.104 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.127,-0.237,-0.021 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.254,-0.037 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.119,-0.24,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.049,-0.051,0.164 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.082,0.299 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.529,-0.242 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.504,-0.194 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.488,-0.189 -Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.317,-0.462,-0.193 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.398,-0.131 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.362,-0.157 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.277,-0.419,-0.147 -Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.318,-0.098 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.257,-0.415,-0.122 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.185,-0.377,-0.024 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.208,-0.307,-0.119 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.265,-0.094 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.051,-0.197,0.049 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.156,0.021,0.261 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.907,-0.407 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.584,-0.872,-0.353 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.821,-0.358 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.837,-0.345 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.479,-0.763,-0.248 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.7,-0.301 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.73,-0.344 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.421,-0.694,-0.146 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.489,-0.709,-0.292 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.637,-0.222 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.431,-0.638,-0.246 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.393,-0.634,-0.193 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.245,-0.427,-0.09 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.185,-0.353,-0.022 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 8375cb48b5a40499437894864f4c74ca2af9eb12..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.007,-0.028,0.036 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.034,0.06 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.071,-0.005,0.143 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.127,0.025,0.268 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.08,0.038,0.122 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.094,0.019,0.181 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.05,0.141 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.099,0.031,0.166 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.063,0.197 -TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.169,0.055,0.293 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.053,0.185 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.209,0.334 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.213,0.382 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.467 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.007,-0.037,0.027 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.01,-0.042,0.051 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.02,0.141 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.121,0.02,0.261 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.039,0.111 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.088,0.009,0.174 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.043,0.142 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.092,0.031,0.161 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.059,0.192 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.036,0.303 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.046,0.178 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.215,0.324 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.202,0.388 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.286,0.457 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.064,0.033 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.01,-0.053,0.04 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.055,-0.011,0.117 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.112,0.011,0.257 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.065,0.013,0.121 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.079,0.03,0.146 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.078,0.024,0.131 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.023,0.143 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.113,0.048,0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.061,0.279 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.07,0.148 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.191,0.329 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.206,0.375 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.288,0.452 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.076,-0.167,0.005 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.164,0.019 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.133,0.011 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.06,-0.086,0.229 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.01,-0.075,0.075 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.06,0.101 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.024,-0.031,0.081 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.103,0.146 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.062,0.022,0.109 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.106,-0.014,0.216 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.055,-0.028,0.135 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.222,0.115,0.321 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.157,0.335 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.216,0.435 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.367,-0.025 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.137,-0.354,-0.02 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.126,-0.345,-0.012 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.064,-0.297,0.08 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.053,-0.259,0.072 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.037,-0.271,0.112 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.039,-0.251,0.086 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.032,-0.263,0.102 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.001,-0.211,0.131 -AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.048,-0.2,0.237 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.006,-0.228,0.119 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.002,0.286 -AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.2,0.001,0.337 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.084,0.43 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.087,-0.139,-0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.124,-0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.137,-0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.01,-0.081,0.07 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.051,-0.077,0.205 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.015,-0.066,0.089 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.014,-0.034,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.059,0.098 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.014,0.127 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.097,-0.046,0.255 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.045,-0.043,0.116 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.15,0.272 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.136,0.34 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.224,0.407 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.104,-0.221,-0.019 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.21,-0.009 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.086,-0.171,-0.031 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.026,-0.112,0.056 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.036,-0.126,0.213 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.016,-0.097,0.062 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.08,0.069 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.005,-0.101,0.09 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.037,-0.064,0.125 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.049,0.224 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.03,-0.058,0.107 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.201,0.09,0.294 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.322 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.242,0.396 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.164,-0.052 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.165,-0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.084,-0.151,-0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.025,-0.088,0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.037,-0.094,0.201 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.014,-0.077,0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.074,0.074 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.093,0.108 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.001,0.09 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.084,-0.028,0.199 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.031,-0.044,0.102 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.109,0.273 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.158,0.296 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.318,0.219,0.402 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.109,-0.2,-0.031 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.102,-0.192,-0.032 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.091,-0.167,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.171,0.093 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.031,-0.114,0.208 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.02,-0.109,0.056 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.005,-0.099,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.121,0.085 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.033,-0.089,0.147 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.078,-0.057,0.251 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.025,-0.038,0.091 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.198,0.122,0.263 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.225,0.109,0.337 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.229,0.401 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.245,-0.067 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.139,-0.237,-0.063 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.206,-0.05 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.066,-0.123,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.002,-0.151,0.175 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.145,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.039,-0.142,0.06 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.04,-0.099,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.034,-0.173,0.082 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.047,-0.076,0.17 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.087,0.069 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,0.072,0.253 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.199,0.12,0.272 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.291,0.176,0.391 -Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.204,-0.414,-0.058 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.435,-0.037 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.386,-0.065 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.119,-0.276,0.014 -Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.051,-0.31,0.166 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.107,-0.342,0.044 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.09,-0.289,0.047 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.091,-0.248,0.027 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.085,-0.334,0.054 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.049,-0.204,0.07 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,0.917,-0.057,-0.232,0.028 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,-0.097,0.26 -Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.082,0.234 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.256,0.054,0.378 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.227,-0.056 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.13,-0.217,-0.048 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.119,-0.173,-0.075 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.058,-0.156,0.027 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.006,-0.136,0.186 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.047,-0.131,0.041 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.031,-0.12,0.055 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.032,-0.114,0.042 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.026,-0.101,0.037 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.075,0.08 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.083,0.5,0.054,-0.029,0.188 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.177,0.099,0.254 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.205,0.128,0.291 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.216,0.375 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.501,-0.264 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.48,-0.274 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.36,-0.49,-0.236 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.285,-0.472,-0.13 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.207,-0.401,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.272,-0.374,-0.176 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.252,-0.417,-0.099 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.376,-0.123 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.246,-0.357,-0.139 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.339,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.351,0.088 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.215,-0.341,-0.11 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.034,-0.089,0.177 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.145,0.018,0.25 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.619,-0.27 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.633,-0.253 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.6,-0.259 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.503,-0.186 -Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.25,-0.508,-0.001 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.316,-0.515,-0.157 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.296,-0.475,-0.146 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.42,-0.188 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.29,-0.508,-0.122 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.248,-0.374,-0.137 -Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.089 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.41,-0.146 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.035,-0.215,0.082 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.115,-0.055,0.229 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.877,-0.392 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.842,-0.401 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.824,-0.404 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.503,-0.771,-0.275 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.755,-0.091 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.487,-0.686,-0.288 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.465,-0.656,-0.319 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.467,-0.673,-0.28 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.668,-0.296 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.41,-0.643,-0.214 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.344,-0.607,-0.057 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.599,-0.275 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.17,-0.333,-0.019 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.13,-0.297,0.052 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 5a672381746bc44ade14788e1e3feab93b0199db..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.118,0.073 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.019,-0.026,0.055 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.013,0.132 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.066 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.022,0.113 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.053,-0.079,0.157 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.032,-0.075,0.116 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.043,0.176 -TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.13,-0.069,0.279 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.132,0.04,0.235 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.087,-0.092,0.23 -TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.26,0.135,0.394 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.243,0.154,0.322 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.378,0.252,0.503 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.079,0.105 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.026,-0.052,0.124 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.026,0.153 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.036,-0.044,0.138 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.051,0.006,0.104 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.059,-0.02,0.135 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.038,-0.015,0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.111,0.016,0.202 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.017,0.263 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.138,0.035,0.235 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.006,0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.136,0.387 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.339 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.284,0.478 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.019,-0.059,0.025 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.142,0.05 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.05,0.132 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.01,-0.025,0.05 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.04,0.085 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.035,-0.112,0.148 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.013,-0.106,0.11 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.087,0.014,0.175 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.114,-0.101,0.291 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.115,0.018,0.219 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.07,-0.127,0.214 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.246,0.102,0.391 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.153,0.304 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.366,0.237,0.489 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.061,-0.152,0.013 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.025 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.041,-0.152,0.047 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.14,0.051 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.013,-0.1,0.063 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.164,0.134 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.14,0.072 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.092 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.077,-0.097,0.197 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.079,0.026,0.142 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.032,-0.139,0.166 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.104,0.331 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.07,0.294 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.463 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.03,-0.071,0.01 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.037,-0.161,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.011,-0.052,0.025 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.054,0.123 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.016,-0.058,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.024,-0.121,0.142 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.002,-0.108,0.082 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.078,0.002,0.167 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.104,-0.116,0.272 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.106,0.001,0.216 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.138,0.209 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.238,0.088,0.384 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.142,0.296 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.235,0.479 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.127,0.022 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.115,-0.006 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.093,0.039 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.013,-0.067,0.091 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.016,-0.095,0.055 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.008,-0.094,0.112 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.014,-0.108,0.063 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.063,-0.003,0.135 -AutoETS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.09,-0.071,0.231 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.092,0.012,0.167 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.044,-0.086,0.148 -AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.099,0.346 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.127,0.279 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.248,0.455 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.056,-0.187,0.073 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.063,-0.156,0.019 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.174,0.101 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.155,0.141 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.025,-0.165,0.108 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.009,-0.126,0.086 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.023,-0.135,0.081 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.055,-0.107,0.185 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.234 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.084,-0.089,0.226 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.036,-0.065,0.138 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.073,0.351 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.308 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.242,0.437 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.033,-0.131,0.07 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.04,-0.084,0.014 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.013,-0.124,0.096 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.027,-0.077,0.123 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.003,-0.089,0.098 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.014,-0.067,0.097 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.022,-0.089,0.119 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.076,-0.037,0.184 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.102,-0.037,0.249 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.104,-0.025,0.23 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.057,-0.064,0.19 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.236,0.084,0.383 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.084,0.33 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.24,0.471 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.213,-0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.125,-0.253,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.096,-0.213,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.101,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.084,-0.2,-0.002 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.067,-0.156,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.058,-0.227,0.097 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.082,-0.226,0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.15,0.149 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.031,-0.022,0.094 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.02,-0.201,0.115 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.174,0.068,0.284 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.026,0.239 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.305,0.17,0.432 -Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.15,-0.388,0.065 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.356,-0.017 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.128,-0.41,0.092 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.084,-0.246,0.088 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.116,-0.374,0.104 -Drift,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.098,-0.3,0.066 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.089,-0.305,0.063 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.114,-0.332,0.036 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.175,0.13 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.002,-0.146,0.163 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.05,-0.184,0.016 -Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.045,0.251 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.13,-0.09,0.296 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.11,0.391 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.152,-0.307,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.16,-0.308,-0.037 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.131,-0.281,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.086,-0.166,-0.027 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.119,-0.275,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.101,-0.201,-0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.091,-0.291,0.082 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.116,-0.299,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.032,-0.104,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.002,-0.195,0.127 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.052,-0.228,0.084 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.147,0.051,0.248 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.128,-0.003,0.227 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.283,0.152,0.405 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.096,-0.299,0.084 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.229,-0.006 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.075,-0.273,0.113 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.033,-0.199,0.122 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.263,0.122 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.046,-0.174,0.079 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.038,-0.16,0.061 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.061,-0.235,0.061 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.019,-0.13,0.167 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.047,-0.016,0.156 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.049,-0.092,0.186 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.189,0.084,0.29 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.171,0.057,0.303 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.237,0.391 -Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.352,-0.649,-0.156 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.631,-0.157 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.326,-0.642,-0.113 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.274,-0.494,-0.116 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.312,-0.623,-0.097 -Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.291,-0.53,-0.11 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.54,-0.079 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.5,-0.309,-0.62,-0.092 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.21,-0.396,-0.073 -Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.335,-0.047 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.173,-0.33,-0.053 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.234,-0.408,-0.092 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.218,0.11 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.159,0.001,0.281 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.476,-0.182 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.513,-0.171 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.436,-0.181 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.246,-0.416,-0.075 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.421,-0.165 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.262,-0.386,-0.145 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.445,-0.097 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.493,-0.091 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.315,-0.026 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.149,-0.421,0.082 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.147,-0.294,0.002 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.206,-0.435,-0.061 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.123,0.179 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.177,0.057,0.284 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.607,-1.014,-0.337 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.915,-0.396 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.576,-0.957,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.514,-0.863,-0.255 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.92,-0.308 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.834,-0.33 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.522,-0.775,-0.319 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.891,-0.315 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.438,-0.76,-0.205 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.397,-0.643,-0.124 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.394,-0.681,-0.179 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.467,-0.643,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.189,-0.391,-0.001 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.216,-0.396,-0.06 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index aacab92ade6d42a196177723655f8cd48184593f..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.019,-0.029,0.058 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.065,0.009,0.127 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.047,0.005,0.084 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.062,-0.038,0.149 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.066,-0.055,0.161 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.102,0.047,0.167 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.017,0.145 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.138,0.051,0.236 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.117,-0.008,0.227 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.183,0.017,0.322 -TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.039,0.386 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.205,0.38 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.221,0.471 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.287,0.546 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.02,-0.062,0.028 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.047,-0.03,0.132 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.028,-0.008,0.061 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.043,-0.066,0.134 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.048,-0.082,0.141 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.084,0.014,0.167 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.004,0.112 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.122,0.031,0.22 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.099,-0.035,0.22 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.167,-0.006,0.299 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.01,0.391 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.209,0.358 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.471 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.41,0.281,0.527 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.145,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.049,-0.152,0.029 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.115,0.049 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.004,-0.135,0.114 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.133,0.109 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.039,0.004,0.074 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.071,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.079,0.025,0.148 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.055,-0.086,0.182 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.046,0.264 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.187,-0.005,0.316 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.249,0.132,0.337 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.415 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.381,0.238,0.505 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.049,-0.092,-0.005 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.029,-0.064,0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.052,0.103 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.016,-0.106,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.12,0.113 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.015,0.143 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,-0.045,0.104 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.096,-0.002,0.206 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.074,-0.073,0.186 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.143,-0.049,0.286 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.203,-0.028,0.375 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.182,0.346 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.315,0.161,0.458 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.393,0.257,0.517 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.066,-0.175,0.037 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.045,-0.154,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.004,-0.129,0.119 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.016,-0.134,0.096 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.084,0.091 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.043,-0.082,0.159 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.024,-0.064,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.207 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.059,-0.057,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.129,0.023,0.236 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.19,0.03,0.353 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.154,0.347 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.18,0.427 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.282,0.484 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.192,0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.05,-0.164,0.076 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.123,0.117 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.127,0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.1,0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.038,-0.083,0.155 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.068,0.095 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.077,-0.064,0.201 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.054,-0.0,0.099 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.037,0.224 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.186,0.041,0.338 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.248,0.115,0.362 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.159,0.433 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.283,0.482 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.113,-0.2,-0.049 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.092,-0.2,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.041,-0.079,-0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.061,-0.167,0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.045,-0.189,0.075 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.184,0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.019,-0.125,0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.041,-0.012,0.105 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.017,-0.147,0.157 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.09,-0.083,0.223 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.154,-0.033,0.28 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.093,0.302 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.273,0.167,0.374 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.355,0.212,0.48 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.169,-0.018 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.126,-0.004 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.105,0.066 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.116,0.043 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.025,-0.104,0.06 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.105,0.064 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.06,0.111 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.059,-0.034,0.15 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.035,-0.082,0.151 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.108,-0.026,0.227 -AutoETS,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,-0.016,0.334 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322 -AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.287,0.148,0.417 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.368,0.243,0.486 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.161,-0.309,-0.053 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.138,-0.282,-0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.085,-0.173,-0.026 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.107,-0.259,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.089,-0.262,0.063 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.084,-0.251,0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.043,-0.118,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.063,-0.177,0.033 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.025,-0.226,0.141 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.119,0.187 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.118,-0.083,0.257 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.185,0.061,0.279 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.242,0.127,0.337 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.328,0.183,0.456 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.132,-0.294,0.008 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.282,0.034 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.222,0.079 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.079,-0.228,0.068 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.062,-0.215,0.054 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.057,-0.109,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.017,-0.187,0.128 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.178,0.076 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.025,-0.164,0.185 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.075,-0.043,0.214 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.139,-0.024,0.304 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.205,0.026,0.344 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.26,0.092,0.423 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.225,0.467 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.224,-0.476,-0.017 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.426,0.006 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.144,-0.358,0.044 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.167,-0.401,0.046 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.148,-0.309,-0.024 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.289,-0.038 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.099,-0.286,0.076 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.293,0.025 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.054,-0.229,0.106 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.081,-0.273,0.041 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.07,-0.028,0.226 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.141,0.015,0.293 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.318 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.222,0.357 -Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.315,-0.628,-0.04 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.29,-0.643,-0.01 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.23,-0.461,0.005 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.254,-0.6,0.027 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.234,-0.546,-0.031 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.228,-0.511,-0.043 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.182,-0.389,0.032 -Drift,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.5,0.015 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.133,-0.347,0.076 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.162,-0.437,0.023 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.075,-0.292,0.027 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.076,-0.217,0.284 -Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.141,0.034,0.242 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.238,0.002,0.366 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.424,-0.613,-0.258 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.557,-0.264 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.332,-0.509,-0.153 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.528,-0.222 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.532,-0.181 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.33,-0.567,-0.13 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.279,-0.433,-0.103 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.474,-0.159 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.227,-0.387,-0.066 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.258,-0.524,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.164,-0.415,-0.015 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.083,-0.397,0.178 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.07,-0.096,0.23 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.175,0.01,0.298 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.889,-0.283 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.501,-0.89,-0.236 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.431,-0.708,-0.233 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.459,-0.846,-0.192 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.746,-0.219 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.765,-0.19 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.375,-0.598,-0.2 -Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.402,-0.715,-0.174 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.319,-0.508,-0.145 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.352,-0.732,-0.102 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.251,-0.466,-0.096 -Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.164,-0.32,-0.035 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.075,-0.298,0.087 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.114,-0.095,0.248 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.204,-0.402 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.694,-1.116,-0.391 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.615,-1.022,-0.312 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.647,-1.071,-0.346 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.938,-0.393 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.931,-0.394 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.551,-0.924,-0.269 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.581,-0.947,-0.321 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.488,-0.838,-0.223 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.875,-0.291 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.411,-0.556,-0.286 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.313,-0.578,-0.002 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.213,-0.424,-0.01 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.128,-0.33,0.087 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 6ec0eacdb59fdc9cf44f55ea5e2fabe8e2d2eef5..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.20879120879124,35.398352594765115,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.41208791208793,25.111125985019022,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.17582417582418,24.470577245081294,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.05494505494507,24.79493117234646,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.03296703296704,28.931010322468566,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.65934065934066,23.276855755353097,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Sundial-Base,64.69780219780219,25.973734598235776,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.56043956043956,22.175386726803193,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,39.83516483516484,5.123802463450922,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoARIMA,36.53846153846153,3.34881134283036,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385 -Seasonal Naive,30.35714285714285,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,28.57142857142857,1.1815957493498508,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,17.857142857142858,-34.975498607867614,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.44505494505494,-44.77392099300393,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.593406593406594,-52.299123287549286,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 84ccc1761acab3972c52cef45aca2bfba115d56f..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.13186813186815,43.69603844728434,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.28021978021978,34.44791487661235,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.82417582417582,33.04019456805117,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,73.62637362637363,38.076295973948326,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.6043956043956,32.88168947733126,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.13186813186815,31.522824785428526,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-1.0,67.03296703296705,31.075422556050736,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Sundial-Base,55.35714285714286,28.52842382801387,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -AutoARIMA,39.28571428571428,9.387893004882919,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385 -Stat. Ensemble,37.08791208791208,7.135433823240489,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385 -Seasonal Naive,25.96153846153846,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.725274725274723,-30.21022947475347,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,20.05494505494506,-10.643501735785609,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.873626373626374,-60.57154436477256,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.0219780219780215,-67.3016516015588,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 6bd3b2b596675f7cce4a2390dcef7a77cbe20f70..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.73626373626375,37.55790132014533,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.78021978021978,26.657949622489184,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TiRex,69.36813186813188,27.32266216368823,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.93406593406594,26.60685234340968,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.38461538461539,30.329432122077236,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.01098901098902,25.999880752887982,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Sundial-Base,60.85164835164834,28.26554433861671,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Toto-1.0,58.79120879120878,24.17115830675096,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.23076923076924,6.664281180112875,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoARIMA,33.51648351648351,2.7340402546184417,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoTheta,29.670329670329664,4.200265512517798,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0 -Naive,27.884615384615387,-29.595393684781012,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,27.609890109890113,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,27.472527472527474,-24.061974944434183,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.75824175824176,-36.91555350097882,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 7f0c0a50509f00f728c10c6a8a4023cf7fcbec1b..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.6813186813187,45.99295406512989,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.35714285714286,37.01592382634481,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,75.54945054945054,39.82364919499898,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.27472527472527,35.74711031825937,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,69.78021978021978,35.346534617319236,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.85714285714288,34.54029719816187,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.10989010989012,33.6346956535905,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Sundial-Base,54.807692307692314,31.42058530075822,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,40.10989010989011,9.81188536974501,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoARIMA,38.18681318681318,9.717573374612886,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoETS,23.626373626373624,-24.269495265740982,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,23.214285714285715,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,21.7032967032967,-4.896832263246642,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.972527472527469,-50.97673020090387,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.769230769230769,-57.44553174606462,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 8ed6e67c474041c4dcec50fa1623cfe48e17157a..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.137,0.066,0.203 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.145,0.072,0.212 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.141,0.078,0.202 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.091,0.047,0.134 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.158,0.092,0.222 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.127,0.069,0.195 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.17,0.105,0.237 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.319,0.239,0.385 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.249,0.404 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.354,0.278,0.422 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.278,0.408 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.521,0.418,0.612 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.554,0.468,0.626 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.494,0.643 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.159,-0.255,-0.07 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.519,0.327,0.731,0.008,-0.015,0.033 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.558,0.385,0.731,0.004,-0.021,0.032 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.054,-0.16,0.039 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.558,0.365,0.731,0.024,-0.003,0.056 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,-0.012,-0.103,0.066 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.038,0.01,0.068 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.211,0.152,0.27 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.225,0.159,0.292 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.251,0.191,0.308 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.194,0.299 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.445,0.339,0.543 -TiRex,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.483,0.403,0.556 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.431,0.578 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.169,-0.269,-0.077 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.481,0.269,0.673,-0.009,-0.034,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.769,-0.004,-0.033,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.063,-0.171,0.028 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.808,0.016,-0.028,0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.02,-0.113,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.692,0.519,0.846,0.029,-0.006,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.204,0.139,0.271 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.219,0.146,0.291 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.245,0.182,0.306 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.18,0.299 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.44,0.337,0.539 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.478,0.392,0.555 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.424,0.577 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.164,-0.254,-0.085 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.442,0.269,0.615,-0.004,-0.034,0.02 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.231,0.596,0.004,-0.025,0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.058,-0.158,0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.423,0.731,0.02,-0.022,0.064 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.558,0.365,0.731,-0.016,-0.106,0.062 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.034,-0.001,0.072 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.207,0.148,0.271 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.154,0.29 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.248,0.188,0.306 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.19,0.297 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.443,0.333,0.545 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.481,0.396,0.556 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.425,0.578 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.1,-0.155,-0.049 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.051,-0.04,0.138 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.059,-0.029,0.146 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.055,-0.023,0.137 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.074,-0.012,0.16 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.04,-0.055,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.087,0.004,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.251,0.16,0.326 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.265,0.165,0.351 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.289,0.198,0.368 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.281,0.201,0.352 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.473,0.356,0.578 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.509,0.418,0.588 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.533,0.444,0.61 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.188,-0.285,-0.101 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.442,0.269,0.635,-0.024,-0.059,0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.558,-0.016,-0.061,0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.577,-0.02,-0.068,0.021 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.08,-0.19,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.462,0.789,-0.036,-0.136,0.048 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.462,0.788,0.014,-0.011,0.043 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.191,0.118,0.256 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.206,0.128,0.282 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.233,0.167,0.293 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.224,0.168,0.284 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.432,0.314,0.538 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.47,0.388,0.545 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.418,0.568 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.146,-0.242,-0.074 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.25,0.096,0.404,0.012,-0.071,0.093 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.02,-0.066,0.101 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.442,0.269,0.635,0.016,-0.066,0.096 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.042,-0.156,0.052 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.365,0.211,0.538,0.035,-0.051,0.119 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.481,0.308,0.654,0.049,-0.032,0.129 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.22,0.136,0.296 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.234,0.147,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.26,0.177,0.334 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.251,0.176,0.319 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.452,0.336,0.538 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.489,0.393,0.575 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.421,0.597 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.205,-0.311,-0.117 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.039,-0.073,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.154,0.481,-0.03,-0.077,0.006 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.035,-0.078,0.001 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.095,-0.212,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.212,0.538,-0.014,-0.045,0.011 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.519,0.346,0.692,-0.051,-0.148,0.031 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.18,0.109,0.243 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.195,0.122,0.268 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.222,0.159,0.279 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.212,0.153,0.276 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.423,0.311,0.528 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.462,0.385,0.537 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.414,0.559 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.469,-0.625,-0.314 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.267,-0.369,-0.179 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.256,-0.371,-0.162 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.262,-0.372,-0.173 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.335,-0.483,-0.19 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.237,-0.345,-0.134 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.282,-0.419,-0.158 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.219,-0.322,-0.123 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.018,-0.016,0.053 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.051,0.016,0.084 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.04,0.001,0.079 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.297,0.19,0.407 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.345,0.25,0.433 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.377,0.289,0.468 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.679,-0.332 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.291,-0.413,-0.189 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.28,-0.41,-0.171 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.409,-0.182 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.36,-0.541,-0.198 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.26,-0.393,-0.147 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.306,-0.451,-0.172 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.242,-0.366,-0.139 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.019,-0.056,0.015 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.033,0.006,0.059 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.022,-0.033,0.071 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.284,0.172,0.395 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.332,0.237,0.426 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.365,0.272,0.453 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.548,-0.729,-0.384 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.335,-0.445,-0.237 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.324,-0.441,-0.223 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.33,-0.44,-0.232 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.407,-0.582,-0.246 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.303,-0.415,-0.201 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.351,-0.501,-0.215 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.285,-0.386,-0.189 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.054,-0.092,-0.016 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.035,-0.063,-0.006 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.012,-0.067,0.043 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.259,0.139,0.381 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.309,0.211,0.405 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.343,0.25,0.435 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.689,-0.384 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.427,-0.24 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.308,-0.427,-0.22 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.423,-0.234 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.39,-0.542,-0.251 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.288,-0.396,-0.202 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.335,-0.468,-0.214 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.27,-0.38,-0.18 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.042,-0.085,-0.001 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.022,-0.077,0.032 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.012,-0.045,0.062 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.268,0.146,0.396 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.317,0.221,0.409 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.351,0.259,0.44 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.089,-1.579,-0.717 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.802,-1.187,-0.513 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.787,-1.17,-0.507 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.795,-1.196,-0.5 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.899,-1.372,-0.554 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.759,-1.164,-0.458 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.823,-1.166,-0.506 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.734,-1.118,-0.451 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.423,-0.687,-0.234 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.397,-0.654,-0.208 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.35,-0.615,-0.161 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.366,-0.655,-0.17 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.068,-0.078,0.212 -AutoETS,Drift,0.577,0.385,0.732,0.114,-0.03,0.253 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.241,-1.671,-0.879 -Naive,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.933,-1.254,-0.676 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.917,-1.248,-0.645 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.925,-1.252,-0.656 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.037,-1.429,-0.718 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.887,-1.2,-0.635 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.956,-1.353,-0.646 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.86,-1.159,-0.625 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.526,-0.765,-0.333 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.498,-0.742,-0.31 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.448,-0.68,-0.267 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.465,-0.692,-0.283 -Naive,AutoETS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.073,-0.269,0.072 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.049,0.03,0.073 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.358,-1.804,-0.976 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.369,-0.759 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.016,-1.363,-0.736 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.025,-1.372,-0.739 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.143,-1.562,-0.797 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.985,-1.317,-0.718 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.057,-1.483,-0.728 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.957,-1.265,-0.707 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.605,-0.879,-0.406 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.576,-0.828,-0.373 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.523,-0.771,-0.333 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.541,-0.784,-0.35 -Drift,AutoETS,0.423,0.268,0.615,-0.128,-0.339,0.029 -Drift,Naive,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.052,-0.078,-0.031 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 9c064e79c5728318522af43c1213899cc0206df9..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.141,0.072,0.204 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.159,0.083,0.225 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.091,0.05,0.131 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.161,0.096,0.219 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.178,0.111,0.242 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.183,0.115,0.25 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.212,0.157,0.275 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.297,0.45 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.317,0.461 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.368,0.497 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.468,0.65 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.407,0.574 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.573,0.716 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.663,0.591,0.728 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.164,-0.257,-0.078 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.673,0.481,0.846,0.021,-0.002,0.045 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.059,-0.164,0.029 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.577,0.885,0.023,-0.005,0.052 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.043,0.014,0.075 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.049,0.024,0.077 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.635,0.923,0.083,0.009,0.153 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.277,0.21,0.351 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.294,0.229,0.365 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.286,0.404 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.497,0.4,0.581 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.321,0.5 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.513,0.666 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.608,0.534,0.676 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.189,-0.291,-0.09 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.519,-0.021,-0.047,0.002 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.081,-0.195,0.009 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.002,-0.028,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.808,0.022,-0.023,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.029,-0.01,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.635,0.923,0.063,-0.021,0.143 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.191,0.336 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.279,0.207,0.357 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.269,0.394 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.486,0.387,0.574 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.304,0.497 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.5,0.659 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.6,0.521,0.672 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.1,-0.15,-0.052 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.055,-0.03,0.141 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.075,-0.009,0.163 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.077,0.005,0.156 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.096,0.014,0.181 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.102,0.017,0.189 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.134,0.048,0.222 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.317,0.222,0.406 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.333,0.243,0.417 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.298,0.457 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.524,0.416,0.616 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.342,0.539 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.614,0.529,0.691 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.63,0.547,0.702 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.192,-0.28,-0.106 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.115,0.423,-0.024,-0.055,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.002,-0.03,0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.084,-0.185,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.327,0.654,0.02,-0.025,0.07 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.026,-0.012,0.068 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.061,-0.024,0.136 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.191,0.333 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.277,0.211,0.349 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.273,0.388 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.485,0.384,0.576 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.304,0.492 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.5,0.654 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.52,0.667 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.216,-0.319,-0.125 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.045,-0.081,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.558,-0.023,-0.071,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.106,-0.221,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.346,0.673,-0.02,-0.075,0.025 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.423,0.75,0.006,-0.016,0.035 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.042,-0.051,0.124 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.244,0.163,0.328 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.263,0.18,0.345 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.315,0.249,0.385 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.474,0.366,0.571 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.381,0.287,0.48 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.574,0.491,0.651 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.511,0.663 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.224,-0.333,-0.13 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.051,-0.084,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.029,-0.075,0.01 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.113,-0.232,-0.018 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.027,-0.073,0.012 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.577,-0.007,-0.036,0.016 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.036,-0.053,0.113 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.239,0.163,0.318 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.258,0.178,0.337 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.311,0.247,0.377 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.471,0.366,0.564 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.377,0.277,0.477 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.49,0.645 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.51,0.658 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.269,-0.379,-0.186 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.365,-0.09,-0.18,-0.009 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.212,0.077,0.365,-0.067,-0.168,0.021 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.154,-0.285,-0.05 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.065,-0.157,0.023 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.044,-0.142,0.048 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.037,-0.127,0.05 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.211,0.119,0.291 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.23,0.145,0.306 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.285,0.209,0.359 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.451,0.336,0.535 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.354,0.246,0.448 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.555,0.46,0.641 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.573,0.482,0.653 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-0.817,-0.423 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.382,-0.541,-0.266 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.505,-0.237 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.463,-0.683,-0.285 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.499,-0.236 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.323,-0.488,-0.195 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.315,-0.466,-0.195 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.268,-0.41,-0.135 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.615,0.423,0.788,0.024,-0.008,0.057 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.769,0.962,0.094,0.068,0.121 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.304,0.194,0.406 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.181,0.078,0.284 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.436,0.348,0.519 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.458,0.375,0.539 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.854,-0.464 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.417,-0.575,-0.297 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.387,-0.556,-0.262 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.5,-0.715,-0.32 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.384,-0.536,-0.268 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.356,-0.526,-0.219 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.347,-0.509,-0.217 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.299,-0.441,-0.169 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.385,0.212,0.577,-0.025,-0.061,0.008 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.577,0.865,0.071,0.03,0.11 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.287,0.178,0.394 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.161,0.074,0.253 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.422,0.329,0.507 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.445,0.359,0.526 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-0.987,-0.581 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.526,-0.679,-0.401 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.493,-0.65,-0.368 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.841,-0.425 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.633,-0.376 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.46,-0.627,-0.331 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.451,-0.605,-0.329 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.399,-0.56,-0.264 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.038,0.231,-0.104,-0.138,-0.073 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.135,0.423,-0.077,-0.124,-0.031 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.615,0.423,0.77,0.232,0.1,0.359 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.096,-0.022,0.215 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.865,0.75,0.962,0.377,0.284,0.463 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.311,0.485 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.313,-1.857,-0.881 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.986,-1.387,-0.666 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.945,-1.345,-0.631 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.103,-1.606,-0.713 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.94,-1.357,-0.624 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.902,-1.33,-0.578 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.889,-1.292,-0.576 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.822,-1.149,-0.507 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.437,-0.684,-0.241 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.402,-0.651,-0.217 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.385,0.23,0.577,-0.302,-0.559,-0.111 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.177,-0.448,0.013 -AutoETS,Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.189,0.022,0.343 -AutoETS,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.222,0.059,0.368 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.965,-1.35,-0.685 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.688,-0.999,-0.474 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-0.988,-0.437 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.168,-0.519 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.648,-0.97,-0.437 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.616,-0.923,-0.402 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.605,-0.913,-0.384 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.548,-0.811,-0.327 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.221,-0.397,-0.085 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.191,-0.339,-0.08 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.106,-0.273,0.022 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.15,-0.013,0.309 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.311,0.19,0.426 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.339,0.219,0.449 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.852,-2.524,-1.341 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.45,-1.993,-1.054 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.398,-1.932,-1.0 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.593,-2.233,-1.123 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.392,-1.887,-1.001 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.345,-1.866,-0.964 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.33,-1.815,-0.961 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.247,-1.782,-0.853 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.772,-1.079,-0.535 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.729,-1.027,-0.491 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.135,0.038,0.25,-0.606,-0.862,-0.397 -Naive,AutoETS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.233,-0.521,-0.023 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.451,-0.743,-0.234 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.04,0.025,0.057 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.971,-2.673,-1.447 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.552,-2.088,-1.148 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.499,-2.051,-1.089 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.702,-2.354,-1.208 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.493,-2.007,-1.085 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.443,-1.963,-1.045 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.427,-1.926,-1.041 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.341,-1.884,-0.929 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.846,-1.169,-0.599 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.802,-1.111,-0.559 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.942,-0.452 -Drift,AutoETS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.285,-0.583,-0.063 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.512,-0.816,-0.28 -Drift,Naive,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.042,-0.06,-0.026 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 9f2f0fe670403de935d91b45332719fa203b54e1..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.149,0.075,0.214 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.141,0.074,0.204 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.149,0.081,0.219 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.104,0.034,0.174 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.156,0.089,0.221 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.13,0.071,0.194 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.177,0.109,0.245 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.331,0.242,0.409 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.358,0.267,0.438 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.348,0.276,0.418 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.518,0.403,0.613 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.376,0.282,0.449 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.497,0.365,0.605 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.544,0.439,0.636 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.175,-0.273,-0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.442,0.25,0.635,-0.009,-0.043,0.023 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.674,0.001,-0.039,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.053,-0.161,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.046,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.022,-0.12,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.033,-0.012,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.615,0.962,0.214,0.126,0.294 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.246,0.159,0.324 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.234,0.168,0.307 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.434,0.317,0.538 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.267,0.184,0.338 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.409,0.27,0.532 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.464,0.352,0.562 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.164,-0.256,-0.08 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.558,0.365,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.041 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.481,0.308,0.673,0.01,-0.028,0.06 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.043,-0.165,0.065 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.442,0.269,0.615,0.018,-0.013,0.051 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.462,0.808,-0.013,-0.12,0.076 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.712,0.538,0.885,0.042,0.009,0.077 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.221,0.134,0.303 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.253,0.169,0.337 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.179,0.313 -TiRex,Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.439,0.321,0.545 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.273,0.184,0.352 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.414,0.268,0.54 -TiRex,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.469,0.354,0.568 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.175,-0.28,-0.089 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.326,0.673,-0.001,-0.044,0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.519,0.327,0.692,-0.01,-0.064,0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.053,-0.157,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.731,0.008,-0.066,0.068 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.519,0.327,0.692,-0.023,-0.128,0.067 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.032,-0.022,0.081 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.214,0.122,0.3 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.245,0.16,0.331 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.234,0.166,0.312 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.434,0.311,0.538 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.266,0.183,0.339 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.408,0.263,0.533 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.464,0.347,0.563 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.116,-0.211,-0.035 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.05,-0.05,0.139 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.041,-0.07,0.142 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.037,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.059,-0.054,0.165 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.029,-0.091,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.081,-0.023,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.254,0.151,0.343 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.284,0.181,0.375 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.273,0.178,0.359 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.462,0.33,0.57 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.303,0.205,0.384 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.438,0.285,0.563 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.491,0.367,0.59 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.185,-0.284,-0.098 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.067,0.044 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.558,0.385,0.731,-0.018,-0.054,0.013 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.596,-0.008,-0.073,0.062 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.062,-0.197,0.052 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.769,-0.032,-0.143,0.065 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.024,-0.008,0.058 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.207,0.115,0.288 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.239,0.149,0.328 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.228,0.162,0.3 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.429,0.314,0.532 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.26,0.164,0.341 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.404,0.253,0.532 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.46,0.35,0.554 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.149,-0.241,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.022,-0.072,0.107 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.365,0.192,0.538,0.013,-0.083,0.107 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.481,0.308,0.673,0.023,-0.072,0.113 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.03,-0.156,0.083 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.404,0.231,0.577,0.031,-0.069,0.125 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.519,0.327,0.712,0.054,-0.039,0.141 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.231,0.132,0.318 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.262,0.168,0.346 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.251,0.169,0.332 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.446,0.316,0.562 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.283,0.183,0.364 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.422,0.278,0.534 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.476,0.35,0.586 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.214,-0.324,-0.122 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.034,-0.089,0.012 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.288,0.115,0.462,-0.043,-0.084,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.033,-0.088,0.021 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.088,-0.216,0.022 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.025,-0.061,0.008 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.481,0.288,0.673,-0.057,-0.164,0.038 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.188,0.094,0.273 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.22,0.129,0.309 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.208,0.137,0.284 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.415,0.296,0.517 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.654,0.962,0.242,0.151,0.321 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.389,0.242,0.513 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.446,0.337,0.542 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.495,-0.692,-0.319 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.192,0.038,0.385,-0.273,-0.416,-0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.284,-0.434,-0.154 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.272,-0.429,-0.139 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.34,-0.522,-0.178 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.261,-0.405,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.301,-0.467,-0.152 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.231,-0.376,-0.104 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.654,0.481,0.827,0.04,0.008,0.076 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.026,-0.029,0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.28,0.162,0.399 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.067,0.029,0.103 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.248,0.12,0.381 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.318,0.206,0.435 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.558,-0.781,-0.363 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.326,-0.48,-0.19 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.338,-0.509,-0.203 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.325,-0.496,-0.19 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.396,-0.601,-0.222 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.314,-0.489,-0.175 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.356,-0.529,-0.202 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.283,-0.447,-0.148 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.346,0.173,0.519,-0.042,-0.082,-0.008 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.015,-0.079,0.04 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.249,0.12,0.379 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.519,0.846,0.027,-0.012,0.062 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.216,0.079,0.35 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.29,0.167,0.413 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.534,-0.718,-0.381 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.306,-0.443,-0.202 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.318,-0.455,-0.218 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.305,-0.452,-0.2 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.375,-0.561,-0.216 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.295,-0.428,-0.193 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.335,-0.496,-0.204 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.263,-0.397,-0.158 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.026,-0.081,0.029 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.015,-0.042,0.073 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.261,0.138,0.381 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.042,-0.02,0.097 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.228,0.087,0.37 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.3,0.184,0.415 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-1.075,-1.586,-0.674 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.767,-1.166,-0.465 -Naive,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.783,-1.198,-0.474 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.766,-1.162,-0.452 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.86,-1.326,-0.492 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.751,-1.137,-0.458 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.807,-1.283,-0.462 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.709,-1.072,-0.42 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.388,-0.664,-0.193 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.332,-0.611,-0.137 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.353,-0.616,-0.16 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.404,0.231,0.558,-0.296,-0.551,-0.107 -Naive,AutoETS,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.045,-0.271,0.122 -Naive,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.053,0.032,0.078 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.601,-0.814,-0.393 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.511,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.376,-0.544,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.513,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.435,-0.622,-0.257 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.351,-0.517,-0.196 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.394,-0.572,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.346,-0.319,-0.473,-0.178 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.071,-0.115,-0.03 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.308,0.154,0.481,-0.028,-0.066,0.012 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.044,-0.107,0.019 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.596,0.442,0.769,0.228,0.097,0.355 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.194,0.048,0.336 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.692,0.538,0.885,0.27,0.146,0.393 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.987,-1.529,-0.575 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.692,-1.136,-0.369 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.707,-1.173,-0.365 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.69,-1.143,-0.356 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.781,-1.288,-0.399 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.677,-1.137,-0.34 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.729,-1.145,-0.385 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.636,-1.055,-0.318 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.329,-0.614,-0.136 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.275,-0.538,-0.086 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.295,-0.587,-0.095 -AutoETS,Naive,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.043,-0.139,0.213 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.241,-0.505,-0.051 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.094,-0.078,0.255 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.193,-1.748,-0.782 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.867,-1.283,-0.544 -Drift,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.884,-1.313,-0.548 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.866,-1.29,-0.531 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.965,-1.439,-0.579 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.85,-1.241,-0.539 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.909,-1.417,-0.539 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.806,-1.183,-0.509 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.467,-0.771,-0.259 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.408,-0.704,-0.2 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.429,-0.71,-0.225 -Drift,Naive,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.056,-0.085,-0.033 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.308,0.115,0.462,-0.369,-0.648,-0.171 -Drift,AutoETS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.104,-0.342,0.073 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 0039cf04a0e4d8c4f7fd473653f4d679009ab650..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.143,0.076,0.204 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.103,0.043,0.165 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.159,0.086,0.224 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.165,0.099,0.23 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.175,0.108,0.243 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.186,0.119,0.253 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.212,0.16,0.273 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.322,0.47 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.319,0.474 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.565,0.464,0.652 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.384,0.522 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.417,0.553 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.642,0.566,0.711 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.583,0.723 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.166,-0.256,-0.083 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.047,-0.16,0.056 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.02,-0.015,0.053 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.712,0.538,0.865,0.026,-0.018,0.077 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.577,0.904,0.038,0.007,0.071 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.827,0.673,0.962,0.051,0.023,0.082 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.635,0.923,0.082,-0.005,0.162 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.302,0.222,0.379 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.302,0.222,0.38 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.493,0.379,0.594 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.299,0.439 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.33,0.472 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.496,0.662 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.6,0.519,0.674 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.114,-0.198,-0.045 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.045,-0.06,0.138 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.063,-0.03,0.15 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.069,-0.012,0.148 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.081,-0.022,0.18 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.093,-0.007,0.189 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.123,0.016,0.219 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.333,0.245,0.415 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.333,0.24,0.418 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.516,0.398,0.612 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.321,0.473 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.336,0.513 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.601,0.507,0.685 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.618,0.526,0.695 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.19,-0.289,-0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.02,-0.056,0.015 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.068,-0.177,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.006,-0.031,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.018,-0.038,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.032,-0.016,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.063,-0.029,0.147 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.288,0.209,0.366 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.212,0.365 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.483,0.376,0.581 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.288,0.423 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.31,0.47 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.483,0.657 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.507,0.67 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.197,-0.299,-0.11 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.288,0.135,0.462,-0.027,-0.084,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.074,-0.174,0.012 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.006,-0.048,0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.308,0.635,0.012,-0.062,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.026,-0.03,0.079 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.057,-0.039,0.142 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.283,0.207,0.358 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.284,0.204,0.362 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.48,0.368,0.58 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.287,0.417 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.384,0.307,0.466 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.485,0.651 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.506,0.663 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.212,-0.32,-0.122 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.096,0.423,-0.039,-0.077,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.088,-0.219,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.019,-0.077,0.037 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.692,-0.012,-0.082,0.058 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.014,-0.016,0.046 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.654,0.923,0.045,-0.054,0.134 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.274,0.181,0.36 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.275,0.183,0.363 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.473,0.354,0.58 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.345,0.266,0.421 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.376,0.293,0.457 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.566,0.482,0.648 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.502,0.661 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.229,-0.339,-0.136 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.173,0.038,0.327,-0.054,-0.089,-0.024 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.103,-0.233,0.007 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.033,-0.088,0.016 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.026,-0.086,0.029 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.014,-0.048,0.016 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.712,0.557,0.865,0.032,-0.064,0.118 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.264,0.176,0.347 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.265,0.173,0.351 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.466,0.343,0.573 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.336,0.258,0.412 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.367,0.282,0.45 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.56,0.475,0.64 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.578,0.497,0.654 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.27,-0.375,-0.19 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.365,-0.089,-0.193,0.005 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.14,-0.281,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.067,-0.172,0.029 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.061,-0.166,0.037 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.212,0.077,0.346,-0.048,-0.154,0.052 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.288,0.135,0.443,-0.033,-0.133,0.06 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.24,0.14,0.328 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.24,0.142,0.324 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.448,0.328,0.539 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.314,0.227,0.393 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.346,0.251,0.424 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.546,0.446,0.638 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.467,0.653 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.67,-0.887,-0.475 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.432,-0.61,-0.286 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.499,-0.711,-0.324 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.404,-0.576,-0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.395,-0.558,-0.261 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.378,-0.563,-0.221 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.359,-0.531,-0.214 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.315,-0.489,-0.162 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.001,-0.03,0.03 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.274,0.156,0.394 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.673,0.923,0.098,0.062,0.134 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.14,0.054,0.228 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.403,0.302,0.5 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.427,0.332,0.521 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.672,-0.901,-0.469 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.433,-0.614,-0.285 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.5,-0.719,-0.316 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.574,-0.269 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.396,-0.568,-0.256 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.379,-0.569,-0.224 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.36,-0.54,-0.209 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.316,-0.48,-0.166 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.001,-0.031,0.029 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.273,0.152,0.393 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.712,0.962,0.097,0.065,0.133 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.139,0.048,0.225 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.402,0.299,0.502 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.427,0.331,0.523 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.301,-1.876,-0.865 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.973,-1.463,-0.611 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.065,-1.575,-0.661 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.934,-1.389,-0.604 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.922,-1.378,-0.581 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.898,-1.383,-0.547 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.873,-1.342,-0.522 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.812,-1.168,-0.489 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.378,-0.651,-0.185 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.376,-0.647,-0.18 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.243,-0.498,-0.059 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.185,-0.496,0.024 -AutoETS,Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.177,-0.005,0.343 -AutoETS,Drift,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.211,0.031,0.372 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.852,-1.093,-0.622 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.782,-0.427 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.662,-0.896,-0.473 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.734,-0.404 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.547,-0.716,-0.403 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.528,-0.727,-0.362 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.507,-0.7,-0.348 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.458,-0.646,-0.293 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.077,0.327,-0.109,-0.155,-0.066 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.154,0.038,0.288,-0.108,-0.153,-0.069 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.195,0.055,0.332 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.047,-0.058,0.151 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.596,0.885,0.338,0.225,0.448 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.365,0.257,0.469 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.942,-1.236,-0.714 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-0.895,-0.491 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.743,-1.051,-0.506 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.633,-0.887,-0.449 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.622,-0.874,-0.442 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.602,-0.84,-0.415 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.581,-0.819,-0.392 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.53,-0.735,-0.335 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.163,-0.296,-0.057 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.162,-0.29,-0.05 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.156,-0.025,0.332 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.049,-0.178,0.054 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.305,0.169,0.434 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.334,0.2,0.458 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.796,-2.464,-1.302 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.397,-1.954,-0.985 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.509,-2.175,-1.028 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.35,-1.917,-0.935 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.335,-1.866,-0.941 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.306,-1.84,-0.93 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.275,-1.776,-0.904 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.201,-1.761,-0.804 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.674,-1.0,-0.432 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.672,-1.007,-0.426 -Naive,AutoETS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.215,-0.523,0.005 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.115,0.404,-0.51,-0.811,-0.291 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.439,-0.768,-0.203 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.041,0.026,0.058 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.915,-2.609,-1.396 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.5,-2.068,-1.08 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.616,-2.276,-1.108 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.45,-2.03,-1.028 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.435,-1.97,-1.024 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-1.953,-1.008 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.372,-1.889,-0.986 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.296,-1.882,-0.876 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.746,-1.089,-0.497 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.744,-1.097,-0.495 -Drift,AutoETS,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.267,-0.592,-0.032 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.574,-0.885,-0.347 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.501,-0.843,-0.25 -Drift,Naive,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.043,-0.062,-0.027 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index a93c6576cdf160344907d24c6b4ede5e6ac59b52..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,74.99999999999999,31.785976470244737,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.99999999999999,32.87474900010455,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.0,32.475887751126365,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.57142857142857,30.065972963196263,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.35714285714286,33.79488514595498,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.71428571428571,31.61987589396246,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,56.785714285714285,30.041136141125392,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,50.71428571428572,29.22957519821191,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,49.28571428571429,28.071655389223615,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,48.57142857142857,22.707876070444478,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.42857142857142,5.881738788340107,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,30.71428571428571,15.209167110886634,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,21.78571428571429,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0 -Naive,21.071428571428573,0.30982946320681215,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0 -Drift,20.0,7.491051478030797,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index ec873e351edf1b2edd74be8f66ff09c3e8148243..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,81.42857142857143,38.088755291215016,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.42857142857142,38.03594076932182,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.71428571428572,36.908809578202614,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,69.64285714285714,38.69101656633476,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,37.84147796075432,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.71428571428571,35.21500006276798,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.07142857142858,36.49963485983284,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,52.85714285714287,31.12404362920507,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,49.285714285714285,31.66665055693333,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.57142857142858,23.555776015856367,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,37.857142857142854,8.155432249884543,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.42857142857143,17.733419423817608,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,21.071428571428573,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.5,-7.297793633399574,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0 -Drift,15.0,0.4041900778196994,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index c28338a0800f6191976a8d121d53f0651c067c05..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-2.5,72.14285714285714,30.23643324970241,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.14285714285715,29.759653338440085,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,67.14285714285714,29.12048426647892,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.07142857142858,31.59592125809332,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.2857142857143,28.503622669499972,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,57.85714285714286,29.695571630620133,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.85714285714286,22.16773042840192,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.50000000000001,25.88326333574207,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,57.14285714285714,29.452418664318316,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.14285714285714,16.462367071514482,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.0,15.909991992310612,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,30.0,14.265515884511814,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0 -Naive,24.642857142857146,0.09410339815076885,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,23.92857142857143,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0 -Drift,22.142857142857146,6.9951032330727525,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 213a5b19af0f3a5310279dccdc224bac5dc737f8..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571428,40.552489915488046,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,73.57142857142857,40.42137769720644,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,71.78571428571428,41.64215769175597,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,67.85714285714286,38.88592211612176,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,40.23878103293733,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.78571428571429,38.083893012167536,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.85714285714286,34.096239445747244,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,57.857142857142854,33.50700504489347,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,52.85714285714286,32.19312845196244,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,41.42857142857143,19.92503103258492,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.28571428571429,24.248203686038707,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.999999999999993,18.14389549105302,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,21.071428571428577,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0 -Drift,18.571428571428577,0.8421348585152089,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.5,-6.552998309491742,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 4f4366a5598bb94c706ac35905ac809cd0cd9af1..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.124,0.085 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.01,-0.052,0.023 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.082,0.154 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.03,-0.114,0.028 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.002,-0.046,0.041 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.04,0.08 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.036,-0.098,0.168 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.052,-0.07,0.182 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.117,-0.048,0.245 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.275,0.078,0.425 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.196,0.073,0.308 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.318,0.17,0.455 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.185,0.434 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.263,0.17,0.344 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.093,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.088,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.118,0.212 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.014,-0.094,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.018,-0.087,0.112 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.041,-0.026,0.112 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.052,-0.167,0.215 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.067,-0.126,0.221 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.132,0.016,0.262 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.287,0.092,0.44 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.208,0.083,0.346 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.204,0.472 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.222,0.447 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.274,0.174,0.382 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.01,-0.024,0.049 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.081,0.081 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.063,0.166 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.02,-0.063,0.015 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.041,0.064 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.013,0.085 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,-0.108,0.181 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.066,0.191 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.126,-0.013,0.252 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.283,0.074,0.447 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.083,0.322 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.184,0.464 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.206,0.44 -TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.27,0.185,0.358 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.182,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.269,0.106 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.199,0.059 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.056,-0.246,0.044 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.023,-0.229,0.1 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.0,-0.134,0.098 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.012,-0.177,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.028,-0.177,0.192 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.095,-0.01,0.208 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.257,-0.028,0.458 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.083,0.263 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.198,0.415 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.214,0.407 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.18,0.308 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.029,-0.029,0.102 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.037,0.086 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.02,-0.015,0.059 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.053,-0.046,0.197 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.032,-0.035,0.104 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.054,0.003,0.111 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.09,0.204 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.08,-0.053,0.206 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.143,0.011,0.27 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.297,0.077,0.458 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.219,0.09,0.349 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.203,0.482 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.218,0.457 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.284,0.196,0.383 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.002,-0.043,0.044 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.019,-0.126,0.08 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.013,-0.068,0.039 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.022,-0.111,0.187 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.033,-0.116,0.033 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.023,-0.058,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.097,0.147 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.049,-0.059,0.159 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.115,-0.073,0.269 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.084,0.416 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.194,0.057,0.332 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.149,0.472 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.314,0.165,0.452 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.261,0.159,0.368 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.087,0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.127,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.092,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.0,-0.108,0.118 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.057,-0.125,-0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.023,-0.104,0.055 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.011,-0.158,0.153 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.124,0.167 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.095,-0.022,0.198 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.257,0.058,0.42 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.078,0.273 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.183,0.423 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.2,0.397 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.181,0.314 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.037,-0.202,0.089 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.054,-0.274,0.143 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.222,0.098 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.215,0.151 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.256,0.083 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.035,-0.173,0.089 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.181,0.137 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.021,0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.19,0.289 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.248,0.049,0.443 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.165,-0.004,0.322 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.292,0.066,0.47 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.29,0.09,0.457 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.235,0.093,0.356 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.222,0.065 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.072,-0.284,0.112 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.236,0.062 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.029,-0.238,0.15 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.26,0.051 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.052,-0.188,0.055 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.2,0.11 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.048,0.02 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.069,-0.2,0.272 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.236,0.04,0.428 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.152,-0.014,0.31 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.281,0.048,0.466 -AutoETS,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.278,0.077,0.448 -AutoETS,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.222,0.081,0.353 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.133,-0.325,0.046 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.151,-0.355,-0.017 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.145,-0.337,0.012 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.105,-0.262,0.01 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.167,-0.37,-0.011 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.13,-0.368,0.068 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.105,-0.246,0.021 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.406,0.159 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.075,-0.373,0.167 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.179,-0.134,0.405 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.088,-0.017,0.19 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.227,0.146,0.302 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.225,0.152,0.28 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.164,0.052,0.258 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.38,-0.738,-0.085 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.402,-0.787,-0.101 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.394,-0.807,-0.08 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.346,-0.845,0.027 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.422,-0.846,-0.083 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.711,-0.092 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.345,-0.725,-0.062 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.33,-0.795,-0.052 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.309,-0.748,-0.041 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.218,-0.682,0.118 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.11,-0.447,0.155 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.309,0.333 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.056,-0.275,0.304 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.017,-0.354,0.225 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.243,-0.445,-0.079 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.263,-0.53,-0.09 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.476,-0.09 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.356,-0.09 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.281,-0.536,-0.099 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.24,-0.497,-0.061 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.375,-0.084 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.198,-0.474,0.004 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.179,-0.449,0.013 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.234,0.017 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.099,-0.183,0.309 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.152,0.05,0.24 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.149,0.067,0.222 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.083,0.013,0.166 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.466,-0.835,-0.204 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.893,-0.257 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.865,-0.226 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.711,-0.247 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.93,-0.255 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.462,-0.893,-0.175 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.732,-0.224 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.413,-0.885,-0.07 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.39,-0.872,-0.051 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.294,-0.433,-0.171 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.062,-0.499,0.236 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.179,-0.315,-0.052 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.056,0.041 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.23,0.043 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.461,-0.766,-0.226 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.807,-0.286 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.787,-0.259 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.686,-0.272 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.843,-0.278 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.458,-0.823,-0.197 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.659,-0.25 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.409,-0.84,-0.099 -Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.386,-0.812,-0.084 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.29,-0.39,-0.179 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.059,-0.436,0.215 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.176,-0.286,-0.072 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.043,0.053 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.078,-0.197,0.018 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.356,-0.526,-0.205 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.378,-0.618,-0.21 -Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.37,-0.559,-0.227 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.445,-0.22 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.397,-0.621,-0.244 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.353,-0.582,-0.189 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.458,-0.22 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.307,-0.552,-0.103 -Drift,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.286,-0.545,-0.088 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.197,-0.348,-0.055 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.017,-0.29,0.262 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.091,-0.199,-0.013 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.045,0.187 -Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.072,-0.018,0.164 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 8ae72f04d0a559c197ad63f7aa6a5df2ef33c726..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.091,0.094 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.019,-0.022,0.054 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.01,-0.086,0.045 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.004,-0.055,0.051 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.044,-0.04,0.15 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.035,0.08 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.101,-0.023,0.231 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.094,-0.039,0.227 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.19,0.034,0.308 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.326,0.106,0.481 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.112,0.362 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.504 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.295,0.531 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.281,0.47 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.104,0.084 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.018,-0.05,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.011,-0.085,0.035 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.106,0.103 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.044,-0.078,0.182 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.032,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.1,-0.086,0.252 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.093,-0.113,0.257 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.189,0.085,0.301 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.325,0.109,0.484 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.117,0.377 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.264,0.511 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.325,0.529 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.277,0.474 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.019,-0.057,0.021 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.018,-0.077,0.048 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.073,0.009 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.015,-0.083,0.043 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.057,0.142 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.035,0.045 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.051,0.223 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.077,-0.082,0.222 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.175,0.044,0.286 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.313,0.094,0.48 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.103,0.354 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.24,0.497 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.3,0.518 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.268,0.464 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.01,-0.047,0.079 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.011,-0.036,0.078 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.068 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.052,0.084 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.054,-0.037,0.187 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.35,0.9,0.035,-0.011,0.083 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.11,-0.022,0.239 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.103,-0.055,0.246 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.198,0.072,0.318 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.332,0.099,0.498 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.121,0.388 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.253,0.522 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.316,0.541 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.384,0.286,0.486 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.004,-0.053,0.052 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.115,0.096 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.015,-0.045,0.076 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.091,0.05 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.041,-0.072,0.187 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.059,0.092 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.098,-0.011,0.205 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.032,0.205 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.187,0.002,0.333 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.323,0.113,0.478 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.09,0.388 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.213,0.526 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.279,0.544 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.265,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.046,-0.176,0.038 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.046,-0.222,0.072 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.165,0.054 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.057,-0.23,0.036 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.042,-0.23,0.067 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.02,-0.148,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.119,0.221 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.052,-0.127,0.215 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.153,0.046,0.252 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.295,0.03,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.116,0.292 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.249,0.449 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.308,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.271,0.429 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.086,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.087,0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.048,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.1,0.65,-0.036,-0.091,0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.101,0.055 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.02,-0.061,0.129 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.078,-0.063,0.207 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.071,-0.088,0.209 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.169,0.052,0.27 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.309,0.096,0.471 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.114,0.336 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.247,0.481 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.306,0.509 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.279,0.456 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.112,-0.3,0.023 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.112,-0.337,0.079 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.288,0.049 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.123,-0.313,0.022 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.108,-0.257,0.011 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.284,0.107 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.085,-0.262,0.059 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.047,0.04 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.099,-0.174,0.293 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.25,0.032,0.456 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.163,-0.008,0.327 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.311,0.076,0.492 -AutoETS,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.358,0.144,0.517 -AutoETS,Drift,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.308,0.137,0.456 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.104,-0.293,0.038 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.103,-0.346,0.101 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.083,-0.285,0.076 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.115,-0.326,0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.099,-0.258,0.031 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.055,-0.273,0.112 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.076,-0.264,0.081 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.041,0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.106,-0.182,0.31 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.256,0.052,0.456 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.169,-0.008,0.33 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.317,0.085,0.492 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.363,0.152,0.52 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.314,0.147,0.458 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.235,-0.445,-0.035 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.234,-0.43,-0.092 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.212,-0.4,-0.046 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.247,-0.467,-0.078 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.23,-0.5,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.18,-0.337,-0.049 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.204,-0.37,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.11,-0.415,0.148 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.119,-0.45,0.154 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.168,-0.162,0.415 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.071,-0.052,0.191 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.236,0.136,0.326 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.288,0.193,0.375 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.232,0.091,0.354 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.483,-0.928,-0.119 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.482,-0.938,-0.122 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.456,-0.922,-0.104 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.498,-0.991,-0.109 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.478,-0.916,-0.127 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.418,-0.959,-0.031 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.446,-0.89,-0.106 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.333,-0.839,-0.033 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.344,-0.837,-0.055 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.201,-0.711,0.14 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.116,-0.482,0.162 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.082,-0.298,0.358 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.144,-0.212,0.398 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.078,-0.292,0.36 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.329,-0.568,-0.126 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.606,-0.133 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.548,-0.115 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.634,-0.137 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.635,-0.099 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.413,-0.132 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.507,-0.129 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.194,-0.485,0.008 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.204,-0.493,0.008 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.076,-0.235,0.049 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.104,-0.193,0.325 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.177,0.061,0.286 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.233,0.111,0.358 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.174,0.033,0.323 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-1.015,-0.319 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-1.045,-0.359 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.99,-0.316 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-1.091,-0.338 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-1.11,-0.271 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.815,-0.331 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.575,-0.927,-0.328 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.452,-0.969,-0.082 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.463,-0.968,-0.092 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.308,-0.483,-0.157 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.089,-0.559,0.23 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.216,-0.4,-0.065 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.068,-0.011,0.163 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.004,-0.169,0.151 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.733,-1.133,-0.419 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.732,-1.123,-0.482 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.701,-1.073,-0.429 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.75,-1.179,-0.461 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.192,-0.388 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-0.96,-0.445 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.69,-1.037,-0.44 -Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.558,-1.07,-0.168 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.57,-1.084,-0.179 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.404,-0.6,-0.238 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.168,-0.661,0.175 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.304,-0.559,-0.124 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.073,-0.195,0.01 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.077,-0.195,0.018 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-0.888,-0.39 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.607,-0.901,-0.383 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.867,-0.367 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.624,-0.947,-0.401 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-0.96,-0.361 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.537,-0.751,-0.372 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.838,-0.388 -Drift,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.446,-0.837,-0.158 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.457,-0.847,-0.172 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.303,-0.549,-0.1 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.084,-0.562,0.226 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.211,-0.476,-0.034 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.004,-0.178,0.144 -Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.072,-0.018,0.163 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index a4e8adcc22a1f3d3b284076ce51d65ba06b9a002..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.108,0.137 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.063,0.073 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.02,-0.124,0.049 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.024,-0.091,0.142 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.008,-0.184,0.15 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.104,-0.023,0.268 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.059,-0.012,0.139 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.166,0.152 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.165,0.037,0.307 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.17,0.027,0.288 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.186,0.053,0.339 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.302,0.168,0.445 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.302,0.151,0.466 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.25,0.135,0.374 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.159,0.097 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.092,0.059 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.144,0.052 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.009,-0.065,0.082 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.008,-0.16,0.126 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.089,-0.037,0.24 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.071,0.143 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.165,0.134 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.152,-0.069,0.311 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.157,-0.004,0.306 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.173,-0.029,0.334 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.291,0.073,0.451 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.291,0.052,0.471 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.238,0.053,0.37 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.078,0.059 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.062,0.084 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.087,0.031 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.018,-0.052,0.08 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.001,-0.156,0.132 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.098,-0.024,0.267 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.052,-0.028,0.146 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.139,0.133 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.159,-0.02,0.324 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.165,0.011,0.282 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.181,0.01,0.351 -TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.297,0.113,0.463 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.298,0.098,0.478 -TiRex,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.245,0.092,0.382 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.052,0.11 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.055,0.126 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.032,0.08 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.043,-0.046,0.133 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.027,-0.093,0.134 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.121,-0.021,0.28 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.077,-0.001,0.158 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.03,-0.08,0.138 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.181,0.029,0.327 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.187,0.016,0.325 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.202,0.043,0.355 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.315,0.147,0.473 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.124,0.487 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.265,0.132,0.392 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.025,-0.166,0.083 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.009,-0.089,0.061 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.018,-0.087,0.05 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.045,-0.154,0.044 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.017,-0.182,0.121 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.081,-0.069,0.253 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.085,0.134 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.183,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.144,-0.085,0.321 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.15,0.026,0.263 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.166,-0.043,0.34 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.284,0.062,0.453 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.285,0.047,0.473 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.231,0.045,0.375 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.008,-0.176,0.156 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.008,-0.145,0.138 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.001,-0.153,0.135 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.028,-0.155,0.085 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.017,-0.137,0.154 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.097,-0.079,0.244 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.051,-0.066,0.167 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.047,0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.158,-0.054,0.323 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.164,0.009,0.335 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.18,0.025,0.327 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.296,0.108,0.458 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.297,0.08,0.468 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.115,0.363 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.116,-0.366,0.023 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.098,-0.316,0.036 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.108,-0.365,0.024 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.138,-0.389,0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.089,-0.339,0.064 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.107,-0.323,0.073 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.05,-0.196,0.049 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.103,-0.365,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.068,-0.063,0.168 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.074,-0.172,0.25 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.092,-0.02,0.181 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.221,0.082,0.328 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.222,0.075,0.338 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.163,0.055,0.248 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.062,-0.161,0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.167,0.066 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.055,-0.171,0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.084,-0.188,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.037,-0.155,0.078 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.201,0.062 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.048,-0.052,0.164 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.051,-0.199,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.113,-0.012,0.219 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.119,-0.028,0.247 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.136,0.026,0.244 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.258,0.121,0.38 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.259,0.102,0.399 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.203,0.107,0.292 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.011,-0.179,0.143 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.154,0.142 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.153,0.122 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.031,-0.16,0.074 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.136,0.154 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.04,0.045 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.094,-0.105,0.267 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.082,0.166 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.155,-0.058,0.327 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.007,0.335 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.177,0.008,0.343 -AutoETS,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.294,0.094,0.464 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.295,0.066,0.481 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.241,0.094,0.377 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.197,-0.444,-0.038 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.179,-0.452,0.064 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.189,-0.48,0.02 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.221,-0.487,-0.03 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.168,-0.472,0.078 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.188,-0.476,0.051 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.073,-0.201,0.059 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.127,-0.281,0.012 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.184,-0.486,0.055 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.283,0.227 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.073,0.109 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.164,0.079,0.245 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.165,0.065,0.256 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.102,-0.013,0.203 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.205,-0.404,-0.028 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.186,-0.441,0.004 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.197,-0.394,-0.011 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.229,-0.482,-0.016 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.176,-0.356,-0.027 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.196,-0.504,-0.009 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.08,-0.333,0.147 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.135,-0.328,0.027 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.504,-0.007 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.294,0.221 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.198,0.22 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.158,-0.085,0.352 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.159,-0.099,0.377 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.096,-0.116,0.293 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.229,-0.512,-0.056 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.21,-0.501,0.029 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.221,-0.54,-0.01 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.253,-0.55,-0.045 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.199,-0.516,0.041 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.219,-0.486,-0.025 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.102,-0.221,0.019 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.157,-0.323,-0.027 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.215,-0.521,-0.009 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.122,0.068 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.02,-0.282,0.166 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.142,0.049,0.223 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.143,0.04,0.238 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.078,0.006,0.16 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.432,-0.803,-0.201 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.41,-0.823,-0.079 -Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.422,-0.861,-0.127 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.461,-0.897,-0.172 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.397,-0.829,-0.066 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.421,-0.846,-0.12 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.284,-0.487,-0.089 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.348,-0.612,-0.138 -Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.416,-0.865,-0.104 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.196,-0.325,-0.085 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.188,-0.543,0.079 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.165,-0.287,-0.051 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.001,-0.064,0.06 -Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.074,-0.193,0.018 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.433,-0.874,-0.179 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.411,-0.889,-0.054 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.424,-0.915,-0.109 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.462,-0.951,-0.141 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.399,-0.898,-0.049 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.422,-0.879,-0.087 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.285,-0.511,-0.082 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.349,-0.664,-0.113 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.417,-0.928,-0.07 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.197,-0.344,-0.069 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.189,-0.604,0.09 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.166,-0.312,-0.041 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.001,-0.064,0.061 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.075,-0.224,0.057 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.333,-0.598,-0.156 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.312,-0.587,-0.056 -Drift,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.324,-0.617,-0.102 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.36,-0.644,-0.152 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.301,-0.601,-0.047 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.57,-0.129 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.195,-0.331,-0.059 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.255,-0.412,-0.12 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.318,-0.606,-0.104 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.113,-0.255,0.013 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.106,-0.414,0.104 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.19,-0.006 -Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.069,-0.018,0.162 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.07,-0.06,0.183 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 62b45aa454bfbd3f0ca6fb3137be2480f9053d1e..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.002,-0.105,0.106 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.109,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.023,0.085 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.109,0.12 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.04,-0.018,0.102 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.106,-0.099,0.28 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.098,-0.013,0.238 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.123,-0.074,0.306 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.258,0.079,0.398 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.215,0.091,0.339 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.274,0.122,0.417 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.261,0.536 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.4,0.286,0.502 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.332,0.543 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.119,0.095 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.021,-0.11,0.055 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.025,-0.055,0.099 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.003,-0.077,0.077 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.038,-0.07,0.13 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.104,-0.054,0.262 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.096,-0.008,0.217 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.121,-0.042,0.298 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.256,0.07,0.408 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.214,0.006,0.359 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.272,0.096,0.418 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.404,0.211,0.549 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.399,0.258,0.509 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.441,0.286,0.559 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.045,0.098 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.02,-0.058,0.099 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.045,-0.008,0.103 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.023,-0.061,0.104 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.951,0.057,-0.013,0.128 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.048,0.277 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.114,-0.014,0.258 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.139,-0.02,0.311 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.271,0.072,0.423 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.23,0.079,0.368 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.287,0.111,0.433 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.242,0.564 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.411,0.287,0.517 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.314,0.57 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.093,0.023 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.026,-0.11,0.052 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.047,-0.114,0.007 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.023,-0.099,0.044 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.067,0.096 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.081,-0.109,0.258 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.073,-0.044,0.227 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.099,-0.083,0.284 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.237,0.052,0.375 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.193,0.021,0.346 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.253,0.075,0.414 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.389,0.216,0.543 -TiRex,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.384,0.242,0.506 -TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.426,0.282,0.551 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.137,0.099 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.003,-0.084,0.072 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.024,-0.117,0.058 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.022,-0.046,0.09 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.083,0.131 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.101,-0.064,0.273 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.093,-0.051,0.255 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.119,-0.053,0.302 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.254,0.091,0.389 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.211,-0.016,0.378 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.27,0.074,0.433 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.402,0.193,0.566 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.397,0.25,0.525 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.439,0.269,0.573 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.113,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.039,-0.149,0.066 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.049,0.5,-0.061,-0.147,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.013,-0.106,0.062 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.151,0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.096,0.223 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.061,-0.042,0.173 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.087,-0.082,0.26 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.227,0.053,0.371 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.183,0.056,0.289 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.118,0.358 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.501 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.279,0.468 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.314,0.516 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.119,-0.389,0.09 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.116,-0.354,0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.384,0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.088,-0.347,0.099 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.113,-0.376,0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.074,-0.287,0.088 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.248,0.165 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.04,0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.17,0.016,0.344 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.169,0.322 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.188,0.027,0.341 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.335,0.128,0.5 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.329,0.182,0.458 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.376,0.191,0.523 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.109,-0.312,0.013 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.106,-0.278,0.008 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.129,-0.349,0.014 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.078,-0.294,0.042 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.103,-0.342,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.064,-0.21,0.04 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.198,0.199 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.028,-0.227,0.241 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.177,-0.059,0.349 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.13,-0.019,0.231 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.195,0.082,0.299 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.341,0.208,0.448 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.335,0.223,0.439 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.381,0.268,0.475 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.141,-0.442,0.069 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.138,-0.424,0.04 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.162,-0.451,0.02 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.11,-0.396,0.077 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.135,-0.432,0.05 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.095,-0.352,0.076 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.02,-0.081,0.039 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.029,-0.317,0.185 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.153,-0.023,0.348 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.105,-0.213,0.319 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.172,-0.008,0.343 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.322,0.097,0.505 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.316,0.144,0.468 -AutoETS,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.364,0.152,0.527 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.347,-0.661,-0.086 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.344,-0.689,-0.075 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.372,-0.733,-0.077 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.31,-0.6,-0.054 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.34,-0.636,-0.1 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.293,-0.591,-0.056 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.204,-0.524,-0.016 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.215,-0.536,0.055 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.181,-0.533,0.023 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.057,-0.428,0.219 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.022,-0.198,0.228 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.199,-0.062,0.407 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.192,-0.037,0.404 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.248,-0.0,0.452 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.274,-0.513,-0.1 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.271,-0.561,-0.006 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.298,-0.582,-0.086 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.24,-0.529,-0.021 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.268,-0.607,0.016 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.223,-0.407,-0.059 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.475,0.145 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.149,-0.301,0.019 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.117,-0.469,0.175 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.054,-0.28,0.3 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.075,-0.067,0.212 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.242,0.118,0.351 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.236,0.085,0.374 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.289,0.182,0.393 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.377,-0.714,-0.139 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.374,-0.717,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.403,-0.763,-0.124 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.339,-0.705,-0.081 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.37,-0.765,-0.08 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.558,-0.133 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.231,-0.518,-0.027 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.242,-0.427,-0.09 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.207,-0.523,0.008 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.295,0.166 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.081,-0.269,0.063 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.181,0.065,0.292 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.174,0.037,0.325 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.232,0.108,0.357 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.155,-0.354 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.678,-1.217,-0.268 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-1.293,-0.32 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.636,-1.186,-0.275 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.673,-1.302,-0.239 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-1.006,-0.319 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.504,-0.999,-0.146 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.517,-0.812,-0.263 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.475,-1.018,-0.108 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.249,-0.686,0.058 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.32,-0.542,-0.134 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.222,-0.412,-0.07 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.008,-0.182,0.152 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.061,-0.035,0.162 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.668,-1.008,-0.4 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.664,-1.037,-0.348 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.699,-1.071,-0.402 -Drift,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.623,-1.022,-0.32 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.659,-1.105,-0.333 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.881,-0.387 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.491,-0.843,-0.222 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.505,-0.784,-0.286 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.462,-0.878,-0.168 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.238,-0.677,0.036 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.309,-0.597,-0.092 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.211,-0.481,-0.038 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.008,-0.179,0.154 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.069,-0.016,0.16 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.792,-1.189,-0.498 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.788,-1.27,-0.4 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.324,-0.458 -Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.744,-1.229,-0.393 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.783,-1.344,-0.368 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.066,-0.457 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.602,-1.098,-0.237 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.617,-0.905,-0.367 -Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.571,-1.116,-0.179 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.331,-0.826,0.0 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.407,-0.647,-0.222 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.302,-0.554,-0.121 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.066,-0.194,0.034 -Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.075,-0.191,0.016 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index ea2ddae1bb0dc0d6ab85e07c32db8bb6975225dd..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,95.91836734693878,31.297845857459595,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,88.77551020408163,30.089978096846835,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,86.73469387755102,28.869849444319463,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.3061224489796,24.574044447615496,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,64.28571428571429,23.393412727785645,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,25.54731526015246,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,5.872754086951614,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 -AutoARIMA,31.63265306122449,2.7206673781491886,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 -AutoTheta,28.57142857142857,2.2840445726052927,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,26.53061224489796,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-16.790213190879342,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.183673469387754,-40.74006375897996,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.0204081632653061,-55.8521959090168,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index cceb194f5d2e6d057c843289f20af746e68afd41..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.025730182452186,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,42.67646308509806,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,87.75510204081634,42.05186472663197,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,69.38775510204081,37.208526302389004,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.018777793021975,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,33.55369924549565,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,39.79591836734694,9.230847183253665,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,7.230158345242376,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,24.489795918367346,-26.74094614085021,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-344.79628604120813,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.204081632653061,-146.71797661038454,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.061224489795918,-161.01029312352807,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 4b36d23a0364583253f8c3e79d747a2e3635e0af..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,31.42661419654642,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,87.75510204081633,30.13802811893269,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.61224489795919,28.669799374404302,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.36734693877551,25.6785844710001,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.3061224489796,25.90099075182256,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,62.24489795918367,23.330206039824308,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,4.641393336578314,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 -AutoARIMA,35.71428571428572,2.3947580894125298,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.510204081632654,0.0437412996646791,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-23.08073844288401,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.183673469387754,-43.56382513496191,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.0204081632653061,-58.78908483912755,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 4175c9cd517194a3be14d018d7ed81295c4261ed..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,43.233433897648524,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,84.6938775510204,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.40816326530613,38.56288334540934,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.79490314550572,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,40.81632653061225,9.557478558677035,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Stat. Ensemble,35.71428571428572,5.698092718548208,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Seasonal Naive,28.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.46938775510204,-35.07795159739386,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-351.4556695211341,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.204081632653061,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.061224489795918,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 579bf81f394c68737063aa6bd2234bffe7831925..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.024,0.061 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.034,0.009,0.076 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.049,0.126 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.061,0.146 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.141 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.176,0.353 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.204,0.364 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.185,0.384 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.233,0.391 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.237,0.543 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.402,0.614 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.451,0.653 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.065,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.021,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.04,0.109 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.048,0.127 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,-0.003,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.15,0.359 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.184,0.367 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.17,0.391 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.39 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.219,0.542 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.37,0.621 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.43,0.659 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.082,-0.009 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.054,0.02 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.02,0.093 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.071,0.027,0.116 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.016,0.076 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.144,0.332 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.179,0.342 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.155,0.369 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.214,0.356 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.205,0.532 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.375,0.603 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.435,0.643 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.144,-0.051 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.122,-0.042 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.102,-0.02 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.015,-0.02,0.054 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.013,-0.076,0.044 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.109,0.286 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.148,0.295 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.32 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.154,0.321 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.174,0.502 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.328,0.578 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.398,0.621 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.171,-0.065 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.096,-0.145,-0.05 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.077,-0.131,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.016,-0.057,0.02 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.029,-0.108,0.041 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.186,0.072,0.282 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.123,0.291 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.123,0.313 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.136,0.317 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.18,0.475 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.308,0.575 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.38,0.616 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.164,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.134,0.003 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.082,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.013,-0.046,0.07 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.028,-0.043,0.098 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.209,0.098,0.307 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.235,0.131,0.313 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.238,0.103,0.343 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.188,0.319 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.363,0.156,0.515 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.356,0.581 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.417,0.623 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.37,-0.546,-0.213 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.561,-0.177 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.497,-0.169 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.401,-0.122 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.229,-0.392,-0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.264,-0.443,-0.109 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.032,-0.002,0.079 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.085,0.148 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.059,-0.038,0.141 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.194,0.026,0.393 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.172,0.461 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.251,0.517 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.572,-0.256 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.581,-0.225 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.519,-0.218 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.29,-0.418,-0.174 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.41,-0.14 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.307,-0.455,-0.15 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.033,-0.085,0.002 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.104,0.098 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.214,0.857,0.027,-0.063,0.098 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.167,-0.0,0.353 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.141,0.448 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.227,0.503 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.624,-0.227 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.643,-0.205 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.586,-0.184 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.47,-0.147 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.456,-0.14 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.312,-0.523,-0.115 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.173,0.079 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.109,0.094 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.023,-0.109,0.143 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.163,0.016,0.312 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.306,0.133,0.424 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.233,0.477 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.456,-0.641,-0.304 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.639,-0.257 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.554,-0.272 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.474,-0.182 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.465,-0.157 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.468,-0.232 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.062,-0.164,0.036 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.786,-0.028,-0.109,0.059 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.023,-0.167,0.098 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.144,-0.08,0.347 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.162,0.408 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.233,0.467 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.7,-1.189,-0.31 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-1.186,-0.281 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.642,-1.135,-0.258 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-1.007,-0.211 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.905,-0.219 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.569,-1.06,-0.185 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.241,-0.648,-0.027 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.201,-0.545,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.195,-0.452,-0.016 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.168,-0.531,0.074 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,-0.204,0.396 -AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.251,-0.069,0.449 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.592,-0.672 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.641,-0.586 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.979,-1.521,-0.601 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.866,-1.37,-0.488 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.837,-1.355,-0.444 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.385,-0.552 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.495,-0.856,-0.207 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.811,-0.164 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.44,-0.736,-0.153 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.689,-0.193 -Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.205,-0.655,0.169 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.063,0.13 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.88,-0.82 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.229,-1.932,-0.755 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.191,-1.804,-0.769 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.066,-1.636,-0.662 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.602,-0.613 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.093,-1.654,-0.714 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.07,-0.335 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-1.01,-0.294 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.913,-0.303 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.877,-0.304 -Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.334,-0.816,0.065 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.149,-0.068 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 42171efdf26c4d5ed45583c455a0621643dd36ce..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.024,-0.013,0.065 -Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.034,0.012,0.07 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.062,0.153 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.044,0.138 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.126,0.193 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.26,0.478 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.273,0.489 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.347,0.521 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.343,0.711 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.86,0.51,0.958 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.719,0.816 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.732,0.829 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.069,0.013 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.028,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.05,0.119 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.005,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.137,0.109,0.169 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.245,0.471 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.255,0.481 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.314,0.522 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.33,0.709 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.856,0.492,0.957 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.709,0.815 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.724,0.826 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.035,-0.076,-0.012 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.044,0.027 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,0.027,0.129 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.03,0.074 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.09,0.167 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.233,0.466 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.24,0.476 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.325,0.506 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.317,0.701 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.855,0.486,0.957 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.704,0.812 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.717,0.824 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.122,-0.181,-0.067 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.135,-0.052 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.147,-0.028 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.03,-0.107,0.041 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.032,0.082 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.199,0.416 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.209,0.425 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.269,0.467 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.278,0.671 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.463,0.955 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.691,0.79 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.759,0.706,0.803 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.16,-0.046 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.124,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.08,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.029,-0.042,0.096 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.082,0.022,0.136 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.328,0.187,0.44 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.343,0.196,0.453 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.294,0.473 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.277,0.683 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.849,0.443,0.955 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.683,0.804 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.697,0.817 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.24,-0.145 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.159,-0.203,-0.122 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.147,-0.2,-0.098 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.089,-0.033 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.09,-0.158,-0.022 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.146,0.375 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.156,0.39 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.229,0.428 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.476,0.241,0.651 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.84,0.419,0.954 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.671,0.779 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.688,0.793 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.622,-0.916,-0.35 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.889,-0.325 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.871,-0.303 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.712,-0.248 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.488,-0.784,-0.23 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.6,-0.171 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.022,0.004,0.038 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.092,-0.059,0.197 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.084,0.465 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.253,0.937 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.632,0.558,0.691 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.58,0.71 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.956,-0.376 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.927,-0.342 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.908,-0.316 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.477,-0.74,-0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.521,-0.829,-0.243 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.639,-0.185 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.022,-0.039,-0.004 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.072,-0.096,0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.067,0.446 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.245,0.936 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.549,0.68 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.572,0.701 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.087,-0.531 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.744,-1.092,-0.458 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.023,-0.482 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.876,-0.368 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.64,-0.896,-0.416 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.749,-0.296 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.102,-0.245,0.056 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.078,-0.228,0.088 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.211,-0.037,0.4 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.775,0.199,0.936 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.537,0.639 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.555,0.664 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.264,-2.458,-0.521 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.211,-2.434,-0.492 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.187,-2.346,-0.464 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.018,-2.041,-0.385 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.078,-2.15,-0.384 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.907,-1.864,-0.318 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.868,-0.091 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.806,-0.072 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.267,-0.667,0.036 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.722,0.013,0.91 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.336,0.597 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.375,0.62 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.136,-22.624,-1.041 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.961,-22.389,-0.969 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.913,-22.04,-0.946 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.568,-21.334,-0.862 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.605,-21.234,-0.797 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.248,-20.643,-0.722 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.735,-14.953,-0.339 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-14.613,-0.324 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.448,-14.656,-0.248 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.591,-10.089,-0.013 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.129,-7.081,0.442 -AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.041,-6.801,0.465 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.408,-4.434,-2.563 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.304,-4.393,-2.438 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.258,-4.322,-2.38 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.929,-3.762,-2.238 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.046,-4.115,-2.158 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.713,-3.518,-2.044 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.718,-2.232,-1.263 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.659,-2.123,-1.216 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.467,-1.772,-1.16 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.947,-1.479,-0.505 -Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.53,-0.793,0.876 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-4.836,-2.73 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.553,-4.74,-2.617 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.504,-4.692,-2.529 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.157,-4.067,-2.401 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.28,-4.461,-2.302 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.928,-3.827,-2.2 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.876,-2.448,-1.382 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-2.34,-1.336 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-1.975,-1.248 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.629,-0.6 -Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.51,-0.87,0.872 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 7b073f0bd9bbbaf6cdbe78e76ec2d1b42f4fbd3a..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.018,-0.024,0.065 -Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.011,0.084 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.047,0.108 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.03,0.134 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.06,0.154 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.182,0.366 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.206,0.369 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.232,0.391 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.201,0.401 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.261,0.591 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.402,0.632 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.454,0.667 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.019,-0.069,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.017,0.056 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.095 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.112 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.047,0.134 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.157,0.371 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.184,0.374 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.392 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.401 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.239,0.579 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.513,0.375,0.635 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.431,0.67 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.091,-0.011 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.059,0.016 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.04,-0.005,0.083 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,0.013,0.064 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.07,0.022,0.12 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.153,0.343 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.176,0.345 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.21,0.357 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.173,0.377 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.225,0.575 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.378,0.619 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.436,0.656 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.12,-0.049 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.105,-0.024 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.042,-0.09,0.005 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.074,0.064 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.031,-0.004,0.071 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.126,0.307 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.155,0.311 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.158,0.338 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.161,0.341 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.208,0.548 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.34,0.599 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.409,0.638 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.155,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.061,-0.126,0.002 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.039,-0.068,-0.013 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.068,0.069 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.037,0.105 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.223,0.115,0.32 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.241,0.135,0.323 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.186,0.327 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.134,0.355 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.398,0.183,0.558 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.484,0.361,0.601 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.424,0.639 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.182,-0.064 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.155,-0.049 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.075,-0.137,-0.022 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.032,-0.076,0.004 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.117,0.036 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.196,0.075,0.293 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.214,0.116,0.296 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.129,0.32 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.2,0.517 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.307,0.593 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.382,0.63 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.576,-0.223 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.365,-0.59,-0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.521,-0.181 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.442,-0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.287,-0.47,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.244,-0.415,-0.081 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.003,0.057 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.046,-0.053,0.122 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.046,-0.075,0.154 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,0.031,0.454 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.169,0.472 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.251,0.523 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.586,-0.259 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.599,-0.225 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.527,-0.214 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.452,-0.183 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.317,-0.478,-0.156 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.273,-0.421,-0.131 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.06,0.003 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.024,-0.078,0.095 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.083,0.116 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.207,0.025,0.416 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.141,0.464 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.232,0.514 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.643,-0.303 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.644,-0.257 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.555,-0.267 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.51,-0.187 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.486,-0.228 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.47,-0.149 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.049,-0.139,0.05 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.025,-0.106,0.072 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.0,-0.126,0.117 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,-0.039,0.409 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.168,0.426 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.476 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.67,-0.251 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.67,-0.233 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.605,-0.209 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.517,-0.192 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.349,-0.549,-0.155 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.476,-0.161 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.048,-0.182,0.07 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.024,-0.132,0.076 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.0,-0.132,0.112 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,0.007,0.358 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.304,0.124,0.431 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.225,0.483 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.795,-1.442,-0.353 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.377,-0.314 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.355,-0.29 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.212,-0.263 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.661,-1.263,-0.224 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-1.069,-0.251 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.291,-0.831,-0.032 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.261,-0.713,-0.025 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.693,0.037 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.558,-0.007 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.143,-0.329,0.392 -AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,-0.164,0.446 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.094,-1.716,-0.672 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.055,-1.74,-0.6 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.625,-0.609 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.494,-0.515 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.937,-1.509,-0.564 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.455,-0.443 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.892,-0.203 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.866,-0.164 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.742,-0.202 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.436,-0.759,-0.141 -Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.166,-0.644,0.247 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.059,0.132 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.316,-2.005,-0.833 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.273,-2.03,-0.758 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.905,-0.772 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.137,-1.766,-0.692 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-1.769,-0.735 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.071,-1.702,-0.619 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-1.096,-0.335 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-1.057,-0.301 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.907,-0.322 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.589,-0.934,-0.291 -Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.29,-0.804,0.141 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.106,-0.152,-0.063 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index d8a19f9aad22a4725a1ca441981f6047861bfec6..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.013,0.065 -Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.014,0.072 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.054,0.147 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.044,0.13 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.123,0.197 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.263,0.484 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.284,0.5 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.347,0.528 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.369,0.738 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.861,0.529,0.958 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.715,0.819 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.729,0.831 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.07,0.013 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.025,0.047 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.037,0.111 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.005,0.106 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.104,0.173 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.245,0.478 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.27,0.494 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.315,0.529 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.351,0.739 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.858,0.504,0.958 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.703,0.819 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.781,0.718,0.829 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.078,-0.015 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.049,0.024 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.063,0.005,0.121 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.044,0.026,0.064 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.081,0.169 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.233,0.47 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.254,0.486 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.325,0.511 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.347,0.73 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.857,0.501,0.957 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.699,0.814 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.71,0.827 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.108,-0.173,-0.057 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.125,-0.038 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.067,-0.138,-0.005 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.103,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.044,0.094 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.209,0.427 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.236,0.448 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.279,0.482 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.545,0.314,0.713 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.853,0.488,0.957 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.749,0.689,0.798 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.706,0.81 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.149,-0.046 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.118,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.046,-0.068,-0.027 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.061,0.093 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.142 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.448 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.362,0.222,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.296,0.483 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.316,0.717 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.852,0.474,0.956 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.754,0.681,0.808 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.693,0.821 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.246,-0.141 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.16,-0.209,-0.116 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.204,-0.088 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.104,-0.046 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.093,-0.165,-0.022 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.272,0.151,0.385 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.173,0.402 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.232,0.438 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.513,0.269,0.689 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.843,0.442,0.955 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.666,0.784 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.94,-0.357 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.914,-0.324 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.886,-0.304 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.472,-0.745,-0.264 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.502,-0.811,-0.236 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.374,-0.625,-0.178 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.714,1.0,0.041,0.015,0.069 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.096,-0.069,0.206 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.33,0.113,0.521 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.791,0.274,0.938 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.546,0.695 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.571,0.713 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.701,-0.999,-0.397 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.976,-0.371 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.638,-0.945,-0.341 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.813,-0.309 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.566,-0.87,-0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.433,-0.671,-0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.286,-0.043,-0.074,-0.015 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.057,-0.109,0.167 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.084,0.495 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.256,0.936 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.532,0.676 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.556,0.696 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.803,-1.12,-0.532 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.122,-0.461 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.737,-1.043,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.628,-0.932,-0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.933,-0.421 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.778,-0.301 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.106,-0.26,0.065 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.06,-0.2,0.098 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.26,0.012,0.46 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.778,0.206,0.936 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.53,0.64 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.614,0.55,0.664 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.436,-2.82,-0.586 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.38,-2.827,-0.54 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.346,-2.701,-0.532 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.199,-2.482,-0.457 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.244,-2.536,-0.463 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.052,-2.216,-0.369 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.494,-1.086,-0.127 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.432,-0.982,-0.092 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.351,-0.851,-0.012 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.709,0.014,0.907 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.276,0.575 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.316,0.596 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.206,-22.787,-1.121 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.041,-22.595,-1.017 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.978,-22.199,-1.005 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.785,-22.0,-0.955 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.741,-21.621,-0.902 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.386,-21.067,-0.793 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.792,-15.18,-0.376 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-14.743,-0.344 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.515,-14.714,-0.259 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.44,-9.777,-0.015 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.172,-7.111,0.408 -AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.082,-6.896,0.433 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.415,-4.522,-2.508 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.313,-4.533,-2.371 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.252,-4.38,-2.317 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.985,-3.944,-2.212 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.067,-4.197,-2.134 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.72,-3.631,-1.992 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.284,-1.203 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.596,-2.091,-1.136 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-1.777,-1.126 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.353,-0.382 -Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.54,-0.69,0.877 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-4.925,-2.692 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.563,-4.855,-2.551 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.499,-4.779,-2.453 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.216,-4.258,-2.402 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.303,-4.59,-2.253 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.935,-3.9,-2.148 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.864,-2.486,-1.33 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.747,-2.291,-1.255 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.59,-1.972,-1.221 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.918,-1.476,-0.462 -Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.52,-0.765,0.873 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index ea525ad20f89e563a3a015d1dcd3009a50a72830..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,32.667973146499854,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,85.71428571428574,29.26035003209091,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,75.0,28.93605729975306,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571429,29.39415793791812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.71428571428571,27.758201124904257,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,27.39923273556282,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 -Sundial-Base,64.28571428571426,27.294413131182793,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,17.869279200778998,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 -TabPFN-TS,44.28571428571429,23.16876937964092,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,41.42857142857142,21.542038855355507,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.571428571428577,13.898849494465237,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 -AutoETS,25.714285714285722,-29.62269544506979,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.0,7.79560161047943,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.85714285714286,4.07870004962435,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,8.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index b5539aed90e1af1cf3776701f7075e0fa7fa4e6d..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,40.14261348186017,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,88.57142857142858,37.438763337724154,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.14285714285715,37.18832201208502,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,75.00000000000001,36.03582794812101,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.85714285714286,34.853090715125255,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 -Toto-1.0,67.14285714285715,35.98014019395901,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.999999999999986,32.14384784602691,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,52.85714285714286,30.909915121590082,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,13.94260028599177,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 -AutoARIMA,38.57142857142858,17.778704714011372,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 -AutoETS,27.142857142857153,-136.42889695356527,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,20.0,-2.8417921456300954,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.85714285714286,-23.56398392435097,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.2857142857142865,-28.213326844738162,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index d34e8c72620be7ccaa9b98a25361344c7398e0b6..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.14285714285714,47.03832907322194,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,81.42857142857144,45.265501615714086,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,80.0,45.61982323609455,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.71428571428572,45.23435046646812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,73.57142857142857,44.27099700478807,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.42857142857143,43.560110598131054,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.14285714285714,41.536751954528484,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,42.85714285714287,37.25192023085951,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.857142857142854,32.159160649999954,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,41.428571428571445,24.4398588876512,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 -AutoETS,32.85714285714286,-7.089562721947629,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Naive,24.28571428571429,25.36480685722543,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,21.428571428571427,2.7732156741662517,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 -Drift,12.857142857142856,15.77773764677779,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index eed2f91d23116d2a586feab37cd071153220dde3..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,65.09181820346713,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,65.02250890387694,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,80.00000000000001,64.38827870406145,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.0,63.90155569021483,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,75.0,63.277941068455476,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,72.14285714285714,62.94483721241358,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.85714285714283,62.612284025823264,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,48.57142857142857,52.74866339373276,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,42.85714285714287,13.563254966732108,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 -AutoARIMA,40.0,21.289551980691435,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 -AutoETS,25.71428571428572,-162.51813043287368,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,25.71428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,15.714285714285717,-21.431026747836324,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.0,-59.16477242087295,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.857142857142857,-65.48141501493944,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 94b6f57952a7e441a67d67a51670154b2993254a..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.005,0.089 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.053,0.015,0.087 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.096 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.024,0.124 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.024,0.118 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.027,0.116 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.066,0.314 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.076,0.155 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.1,0.196 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.121,0.333 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.137,0.781 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.18,0.35 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.207,0.379 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.263,0.388 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.005 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.016,0.023 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.053,0.035 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.028,0.066 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.026,0.004,0.054 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,-0.0,0.055 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.139,0.038,0.264 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.058,0.112 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.098,0.035,0.158 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.272 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.454,0.08,0.77 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.143,0.307 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.174,0.336 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.222,0.364 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.095,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.024,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.064,0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.034,0.074 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.021,0.0,0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.002,0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.135,0.035,0.262 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.054,0.096 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.038,0.147 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.106,0.27 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.452,0.092,0.768 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.131,0.311 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.165,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.231,0.351 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.106,0.001 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.037,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,0.004,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.068 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.029,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.14,0.001,0.301 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.032,0.13 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.1,0.026,0.153 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.075,0.308 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.455,0.061,0.769 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.178,0.286 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.206,0.317 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.196,0.38 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.141,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.07,0.027 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.017,-0.08,0.033 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.039,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.05,0.053 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.063,0.06 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.12,-0.031,0.28 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.009,0.111 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.079,-0.01,0.149 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.045,0.292 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.443,0.023,0.768 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.157,0.276 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.185,0.308 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.18,0.365 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.057,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.022,-0.044,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.072,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.056,0.048 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.02,0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.116,0.011,0.247 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.055,0.015,0.089 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.023,0.127 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.157,0.091,0.259 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.44,0.072,0.758 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.282 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.165,0.314 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.192,0.348 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.131,-0.028 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.028,-0.058,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.047,0.002 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.028 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.063,0.059 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.027,0.02 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.115,0.028,0.239 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.054,0.012,0.097 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.031,0.114 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.091,0.251 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.439,0.081,0.757 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.125,0.295 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.155,0.324 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.344 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.459,-0.071 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.161,-0.359,-0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.156,-0.354,-0.036 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.163,-0.431,-0.001 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.137,-0.389,0.03 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.131,-0.328,-0.011 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.13,-0.314,-0.029 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.069,-0.271,0.059 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.047,-0.246,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.089 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.366,-0.049,0.726 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.109,-0.149,0.275 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.144,-0.11,0.307 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.179,0.074,0.286 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.183,-0.082 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.126,-0.062 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.106,-0.057 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.149,-0.033 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.058,-0.097,-0.016 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.057,-0.108,-0.012 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.065,-0.063,0.213 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.021,-0.056,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.108,0.017,0.215 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.407,0.014,0.752 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.059,0.257 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.09,0.29 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.169,0.289 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.243,-0.112 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.109,-0.187,-0.036 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.173,-0.04 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.111,-0.18,-0.027 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.086,-0.175,0.01 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.146,-0.024 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.128,-0.032 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.045,-0.044,0.197 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.021,-0.101,0.053 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.089,-0.018,0.224 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.395,0.04,0.727 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.059,0.244 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.096,0.277 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.115,0.304 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.5,-0.138 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.374,-0.115 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.37,-0.118 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.445,-0.081 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.412,-0.048 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.186,-0.349,-0.1 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.184,-0.335,-0.1 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.048,-0.098,0.001 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.121,-0.274,-0.017 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.289,0.018 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.336,-0.108,0.712 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,-0.165,0.208 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.102,-0.112,0.239 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.139,0.042,0.235 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.925,-3.56,-0.159 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.832,-3.354,-0.087 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.824,-3.308,-0.102 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.836,-3.32,-0.065 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.794,-3.308,-0.023 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.785,-3.132,-0.077 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.783,-3.107,-0.088 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.578,-2.653,0.047 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.687,-3.038,-0.014 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.652,-2.668,-0.041 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.505,-2.472,0.097 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.406,-2.121,0.194 -AutoETS,Drift,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.351,-2.001,0.23 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.296,-2.14,0.211 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.538,-0.219 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.451,-0.151 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.4,-0.217 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.381,-0.186 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.392,-0.151 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.419,-0.143 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.123,-0.379,0.13 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.345,-0.063 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.322,-0.063 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.263,0.142 -Naive,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.289,-0.24,0.68 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.026,0.046 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.078,-0.115,0.244 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.61,-0.261 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.506,-0.211 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.519,-0.198 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.465,-0.26 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.445,-0.227 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.458,-0.198 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.319,-0.48,-0.183 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.168,-0.443,0.099 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.408,-0.099 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.384,-0.106 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.114,-0.314,0.101 -Drift,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.26,-0.298,0.667 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.048,-0.027 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.168,0.219 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.633,-0.357 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.572,-0.285 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.541,-0.3 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.612,-0.244 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.384,-0.575,-0.22 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.534,-0.238 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.525,-0.251 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.218,-0.4,-0.08 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.406,-0.203 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.437,-0.13 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.161,-0.307,-0.044 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.229,-0.268,0.682 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.085,-0.323,0.104 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.043,-0.28,0.144 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 439fe51a458665716073ae96eef164830e7a8125..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.001,0.081 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.001,0.095 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.122 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.081,0.019,0.139 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.021,0.121 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.143 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.097,0.169 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.141,0.433 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.161,0.393 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.259,0.947 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.258,0.535 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.327,0.459 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.431,0.6 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.447,0.617 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.089,0.001 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.048,0.043 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.007,0.049 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.066 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.025,0.069 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.056,0.109 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.065,0.123 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.126,0.395 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.146,0.351 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.217,0.947 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.245,0.505 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.434 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.414,0.575 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.429,0.592 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.105,0.001 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.045,0.045 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,0.003,0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.029,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.045,0.13 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.27,0.095,0.415 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.111,0.38 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.709,0.198,0.947 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.215,0.523 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.265,0.447 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.396,0.574 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.413,0.592 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.052,0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.101,0.049 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,0.0,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.078,0.075 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.09 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.025,0.114 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.129,0.366 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.148,0.314 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.221,0.947 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.249,0.485 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.291,0.411 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.406,0.562 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.422,0.579 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.088,-0.161,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.07,-0.011 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.112,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.037,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.09,0.05 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.04,-0.002,0.081 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.1 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.243,0.114,0.353 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.208,0.128,0.307 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.201,0.947 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.232,0.47 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.271,0.409 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.396,0.548 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.412,0.566 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.138,-0.021 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.074,0.024 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.035,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.081,0.073 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.053,0.083 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.106 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.015,0.116 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.256,0.07,0.405 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.221,0.086,0.367 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.703,0.17,0.947 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.377,0.192,0.514 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.241,0.436 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.38,0.569 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.398,0.588 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.167,-0.083 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.123,-0.06 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.134,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.099,-0.016 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.088,0.002 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.06,-0.118,0.002 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.034,0.06 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.212,0.042,0.347 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.063,0.298 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.689,0.159,0.945 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.182,0.468 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.242,0.372 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.357,0.535 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.375,0.554 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.204,-0.107 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.14,-0.07 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.1,-0.149,-0.047 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.129,-0.025 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.111,-0.017 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.131,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.063,0.033 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.197,0.033,0.333 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.055,0.285 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.688,0.16,0.945 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.165,0.457 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.223,0.39 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.364,0.517 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.382,0.539 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.765,-0.164 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.653,-0.145 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.37,-0.71,-0.105 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.577,-0.148 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.321,-0.545,-0.129 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.344,-0.681,-0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.268,-0.532,-0.044 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.246,-0.5,-0.035 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.047,-0.183,0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.089,0.941 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.118,0.21 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.139,-0.004,0.262 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.201,0.379 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.224,0.406 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.647,-0.191 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.54,-0.171 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.612,-0.125 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.459,-0.173 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.262,-0.444,-0.147 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.284,-0.579,-0.094 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.425,-0.067 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.399,-0.059 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.045,-0.049,0.155 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.642,0.062,0.941 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.201,0.087,0.317 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.178,0.076,0.269 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.21,0.441 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.238,0.463 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.538,-17.795,-0.35 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.44,-17.904,-0.278 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.436,-17.805,-0.247 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.391,-17.776,-0.283 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.363,-17.776,-0.252 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.366,-17.702,-0.205 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.219,-17.076,-0.19 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.207,-17.119,-0.19 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-15.878,-0.098 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.791,-15.965,-0.066 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.464,-14.889,0.062 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.364,-14.138,0.138 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.141,-13.92,0.256 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.083,-13.686,0.286 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.718,-1.152,-0.347 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.644,-1.02,-0.324 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-1.095,-0.274 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.941,-0.332 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.887,-0.303 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.606,-1.056,-0.237 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.516,-0.879,-0.222 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.489,-0.842,-0.197 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.265,-0.134 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.251,-0.464,-0.095 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.594,-0.066,0.937 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.028,-0.202,0.12 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.168,0.021,0.281 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.198,0.049,0.314 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.848,-0.486 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.768,-0.404 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.807,-0.36 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.563,-0.699,-0.411 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.692,-0.371 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.773,-0.317 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.593,-0.319 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.639,-0.286 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.162,-0.355,0.004 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.216,-0.368,-0.082 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.577,-0.16,0.934 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.137,0.168 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.191,0.023,0.331 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.22,0.045,0.362 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.064,-1.497,-0.756 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.352,-0.706 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.967,-1.345,-0.655 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.282,-0.683 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.215,-0.655 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.93,-1.321,-0.614 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.821,-1.152,-0.556 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.788,-1.071,-0.571 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.61,-0.252 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.79,-0.267 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.533,-0.345,0.933 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.201,-0.391,-0.021 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.236,-0.496,-0.024 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.023,0.046 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.142,-1.61,-0.808 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.449,-0.753 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.451,-0.704 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.004,-1.377,-0.729 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.968,-1.306,-0.701 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.426,-0.662 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.889,-1.241,-0.6 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.856,-1.169,-0.618 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.685,-0.288 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.864,-0.312 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.52,-0.401,0.932 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.247,-0.458,-0.051 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.282,-0.567,-0.048 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.048,-0.023 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index ab72a41d924bb16897202c76d002e92572f240ed..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.008,0.069 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.026,-0.059,0.112 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.03,0.091 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.01,0.084 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.062,0.015,0.106 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.059,0.123 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.106,0.207 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.105,0.34 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.119,0.515 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.142,0.803 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.225,0.347 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.196,0.651 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.301,0.439 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.277,0.613 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.074,0.008 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.07,0.05 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.044,0.032 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.055 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,0.002,0.06 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.043,0.09 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.062,0.196 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.193,0.054,0.34 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.276,0.057,0.511 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.489,0.099,0.792 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.219,0.303 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.152,0.648 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.287,0.421 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.224,0.614 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.027,-0.126,0.056 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.053,0.066 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.025,0.038 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.07,0.117 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,-0.046,0.124 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.07,0.009,0.134 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.133,0.026,0.21 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.198,0.016,0.364 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.28,0.021,0.54 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.492,0.069,0.794 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.254,0.288 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.441,0.118,0.658 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.285,0.456 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.212,0.632 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.1,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.034,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.04,0.025 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.042,0.095 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.029,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.063,0.029,0.107 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.127,0.039,0.206 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.193,0.04,0.341 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.275,0.033,0.533 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.489,0.089,0.791 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.233,0.292 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.139,0.646 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.266,0.446 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.216,0.62 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.092,-0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.059,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.133,0.065 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.105,0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,0.0,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,0.009,0.086 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.045,0.179 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.057,0.325 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.072,0.481 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.48,0.113,0.787 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.175,0.308 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.154,0.639 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.286,0.398 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.234,0.607 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.066,-0.119,-0.015 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.064,-0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.038,-0.141,0.044 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.112,0.028 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.026,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.035,0.001,0.076 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.027,0.179 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.168,0.033,0.319 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.253,0.051,0.481 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.473,0.1,0.782 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.173,0.294 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.137,0.639 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.276,0.39 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.216,0.604 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.141,-0.063 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.099,-0.045 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.075,-0.155,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.12,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.094,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.036,-0.082,-0.001 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.068,-0.003,0.154 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.138,0.01,0.274 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.226,0.006,0.473 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.454,0.046,0.781 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.157,0.269 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.111,0.613 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.22,0.385 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.189,0.58 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.185,-0.261,-0.118 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.146,-0.244,-0.066 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.154,-0.266,-0.027 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.146,-0.259,-0.041 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.126,-0.219,-0.047 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.112,-0.218,-0.028 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.073,-0.182,0.003 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.075,-0.094,0.236 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.17,-0.04,0.439 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.414,0.031,0.756 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.08,0.246 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.355,0.02,0.592 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.138,0.359 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.124,0.551 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.514,-0.118 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.239,-0.515,-0.058 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.248,-0.572,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.239,-0.516,-0.041 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.481,-0.06 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.202,-0.469,-0.034 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.16,-0.378,-0.01 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.081,-0.309,0.086 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.102,-0.154,0.356 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.367,-0.107,0.752 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.091,-0.163,0.262 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.302,0.104,0.465 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.195,-0.036,0.319 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.196,0.44 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-1.06,-0.136 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-1.043,-0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.389,-1.175,-0.022 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-1.143,-0.034 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.928,-0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.339,-0.928,-0.053 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.292,-0.899,-0.006 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.204,-0.783,0.038 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.114,-0.552,0.134 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.294,-0.491,0.752 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.012,-0.576,0.256 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.223,0.017,0.48 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.103,-0.193,0.288 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.079,0.437 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.022,-4.086,-0.165 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.957,-3.819,-0.11 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.969,-3.864,-0.074 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.955,-3.785,-0.098 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.922,-3.687,-0.128 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.897,-3.581,-0.111 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.832,-3.56,-0.049 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.707,-3.104,-0.032 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.579,-3.026,0.096 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.417,-3.027,0.329 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.435,-2.462,0.2 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.101,-2.153,0.506 -AutoETS,Drift,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.272,-2.166,0.294 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.071,-2.122,0.478 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.532,-0.291 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.434,-0.28 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.405,-0.341 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.363,-0.413,-0.304 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.445,-0.212 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.416,-0.209 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.369,-0.186 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.189,-0.326,-0.087 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.1,-0.355,0.14 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.012,-0.344,0.365 -Naive,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.303,-0.249,0.711 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.232,-0.216,0.538 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.031,0.248 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.254,-0.107,0.5 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.836,-1.868,-0.243 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-1.839,-0.179 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.788,-1.924,-0.133 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.775,-1.821,-0.161 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.773,-0.182 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.773,-0.159 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.663,-1.583,-0.125 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.549,-1.452,-0.021 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.433,-0.868,-0.116 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.287,-0.923,-0.017 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.092,-1.026,0.683 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.303,-1.164,0.178 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.154,-0.935,0.218 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.028,-0.096,0.124 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.781,-0.431 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.727,-0.403 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.549,-0.839,-0.398 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.806,-0.362 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.511,-0.662,-0.4 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.64,-0.381 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.441,-0.627,-0.282 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.56,-0.16 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.241,-0.467,0.035 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.115,-0.405,0.162 -Drift,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.214,-0.417,0.684 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.33,-0.032 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.134,-0.278,0.483 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.158,-0.156,0.42 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.888,-1.587,-0.384 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.827,-1.591,-0.288 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.721,-0.27 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.634,-0.276 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.545,-0.305 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.772,-1.526,-0.276 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.71,-1.38,-0.233 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-1.226,-0.141 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.786,-0.244 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.777,-0.086 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.066,-0.917,0.68 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.34,-1.001,0.097 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.029,-0.142,0.088 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.187,-0.724,0.135 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 621198599b5086f10bd143e22c04781dcf628b91..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.112,0.084 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.011,0.074 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.02,-0.065,0.099 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.015,0.087 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.058,0.021,0.1 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.021,0.108 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.165,0.385 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.596,0.289,0.786 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.248,0.769 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.412,0.8 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.851,0.447,0.96 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.389,0.882 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.781,0.608,0.893 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.626,0.897 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.091,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.031,-0.031,0.124 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.031,0.066 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.034,0.132 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.056,-0.012,0.133 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.016,0.123 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.26,0.114,0.407 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.595,0.249,0.809 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.186,0.792 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.65,0.373,0.816 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.854,0.428,0.963 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.712,0.366,0.888 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.575,0.902 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.594,0.906 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.08,0.011 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.032,-0.142,0.03 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.083,0.045 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.018,0.051 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.005,0.056 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.034,-0.006,0.062 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.12,0.391 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.582,0.262,0.777 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.197,0.764 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.379,0.8 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.849,0.438,0.96 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.375,0.877 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.582,0.889 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.782,0.601,0.893 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.02,-0.11,0.061 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.071,0.03 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.047,0.077 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,-0.058,0.099 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.039,-0.038,0.101 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.008,0.093 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.246,0.087,0.423 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.588,0.233,0.794 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.548,0.166,0.782 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.644,0.359,0.812 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.851,0.418,0.962 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.707,0.353,0.887 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.566,0.898 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.585,0.902 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.096,-0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.152,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.054,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.109,0.055 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.009,0.0,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.011,0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.223,0.116,0.358 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.258,0.778 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.197,0.76 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.633,0.366,0.794 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.434,0.96 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.698,0.368,0.878 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.58,0.887 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.599,0.891 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.062,-0.111,-0.021 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.059,-0.154,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.059,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.113,0.037 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.009,-0.022,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.009,-0.011,0.031 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.102,0.357 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.245,0.776 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.185,0.759 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.629,0.357,0.794 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.847,0.427,0.96 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.695,0.362,0.878 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.572,0.887 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.591,0.891 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.121,-0.022 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.14,-0.016 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.067,0.006 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.102,0.008 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.048,0.011 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.009,-0.032,0.011 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.209,0.084,0.36 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.567,0.227,0.78 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.161,0.763 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.346,0.795 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.411,0.959 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.345,0.878 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.562,0.889 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.582,0.893 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.627,-0.197 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.351,-0.685,-0.128 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.642,-0.136 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.327,-0.734,-0.095 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.287,-0.558,-0.132 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.554,-0.113 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.264,-0.562,-0.092 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.453,0.145,0.692 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.087,0.676 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.284,0.714 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.808,0.284,0.953 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.269,0.825 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.519,0.848 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.541,0.854 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.476,-3.677,-0.406 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.471,-4.234,-0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.394,-3.477,-0.355 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.427,-3.85,-0.304 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.354,-3.502,-0.348 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.333,-3.474,-0.324 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.312,-3.54,-0.294 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.829,-2.252,-0.17 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.098,-0.253,0.033 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.136,-0.006,0.263 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.679,0.122,0.942 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.141,0.431 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.381,0.525 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.402,0.547 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.255,-3.321,-0.329 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.25,-3.81,-0.229 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.18,-3.234,-0.246 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.21,-3.591,-0.199 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-3.167,-0.246 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.124,-3.155,-0.227 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.105,-3.225,-0.192 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-2.082,-0.095 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.089,-0.034,0.202 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.085,0.322 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.69,0.14,0.945 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.163,0.498 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.439,0.55 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.461,0.571 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.865,-3.998,-0.7 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.859,-4.429,-0.596 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.77,-3.99,-0.611 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.808,-4.323,-0.561 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.723,-3.847,-0.577 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.699,-3.847,-0.554 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.675,-3.872,-0.53 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.116,-2.499,-0.396 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.157,-0.357,0.006 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.27,-0.475,-0.093 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.619,-0.191,0.934 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.176,-0.119,0.407 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.263,0.474 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.285,0.498 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.72,-23.987,-0.809 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-5.843,-25.798,-0.747 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.624,-24.278,-0.78 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-5.702,-25.133,-0.719 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.569,-23.796,-0.768 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.529,-23.796,-0.746 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.472,-23.681,-0.697 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-4.218,-20.183,-0.396 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.12,-16.234,-0.139 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.23,-17.179,-0.162 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-1.625,-14.209,0.161 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.332,-14.278,0.126 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.858,-12.363,0.398 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.804,-12.205,0.425 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.479,-7.506,-0.637 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.472,-7.959,-0.578 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.364,-7.162,-0.601 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.41,-7.837,-0.546 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.307,-7.179,-0.581 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.277,-7.179,-0.567 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.248,-7.22,-0.527 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-4.717,-0.367 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.758,-0.164 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.992,-0.195 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.214,-0.687,0.106 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.571,-0.144,0.935 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.237,0.048,0.39 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.266,0.077,0.417 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.56,-8.328,-1.553 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.55,-9.211,-1.351 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.409,-7.988,-1.391 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.469,-8.786,-1.303 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.334,-7.847,-1.379 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.295,-7.822,-1.337 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.257,-7.97,-1.283 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.368,-5.581,-1.081 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.841,-1.107,-0.615 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.022,-1.221,-0.784 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.903,-0.356 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.462,-0.661,0.925 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.311,-0.64,-0.051 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.038,0.023,0.048 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.74,-8.702,-1.674 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.731,-9.61,-1.462 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.584,-8.339,-1.504 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.647,-9.168,-1.412 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.506,-8.192,-1.492 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.466,-8.166,-1.447 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.426,-8.32,-1.391 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.502,-5.838,-1.177 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.209,-0.671 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.33,-0.857 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.655,-0.991,-0.399 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.446,-0.738,0.924 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.363,-0.714,-0.083 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.023 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index fa4193fa03f19c9c7e69b496eb71711ba7801b24..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.92857142857142,31.501656677015877,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.57142857142857,23.432210853887824,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 -TiRex,77.14285714285715,22.162040254473435,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,60.535714285714285,19.71091545425906,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.464285714285715,19.675877583589962,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,56.07142857142857,13.027815355863082,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 -TabPFN-TS,53.75,21.87830321957843,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 -Toto-1.0,52.142857142857146,16.413339138501282,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,46.07142857142858,16.038005246480637,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,40.71428571428572,10.280766781650541,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,38.21428571428571,9.26831193284996,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,33.92857142857142,10.226042531476098,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 -Naive,23.750000000000004,-6.914332478799268,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,22.857142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.85714285714286,-11.344894423586283,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index afe39a7bc19c7e4d6a527c0e13e32e6f5f4d4fc5..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,95.35714285714285,43.96240642608832,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,86.07142857142858,36.823555756781786,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.21428571428572,37.10811211763772,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,69.46428571428571,34.10760588639609,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.46428571428572,33.491148656047734,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.64285714285714,30.939728300714854,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.464285714285715,35.43634457814382,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 -Stat. Ensemble,48.92857142857142,23.85904743187437,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,41.42857142857143,23.978096972410967,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.57142857142858,25.74930746838757,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.35714285714286,19.31393356433696,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,32.142857142857146,-30.072080218522256,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.750000000000002,-24.765318851224837,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.571428571428571,-28.889461313877618,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index c1b777a944f601f37cba932b354bc52cec51900d..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.85714285714288,36.379613913489294,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,81.07142857142857,26.676884863739826,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,80.71428571428572,26.63143268920436,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.67857142857142,31.495409904169957,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.464285714285715,21.34999371322177,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.10714285714285,21.832707013778197,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.714285714285715,19.746861195373988,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,51.42857142857142,15.056774830590047,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 -Sundial-Base,50.0,19.631923145741638,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,37.142857142857146,13.94268827584597,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.71428571428571,11.9856769445434,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,33.92857142857142,9.663626183996287,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.178571428571423,-5.797213358383746,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.42857142857143,-11.068952925850128,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 661a4e32c76c425846175bca2578eb980b0d84f5..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.21428571428572,48.70640032243877,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,84.28571428571426,41.29715572696604,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.78571428571428,41.64654333985731,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.53571428571429,44.77960188404002,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.17857142857143,37.464866804831296,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.82142857142857,37.53610716017488,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 -Toto-1.0,61.428571428571445,35.67337775117804,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,46.78571428571428,26.910379403137718,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 -Sundial-Base,44.28571428571429,30.894178482978774,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,41.785714285714285,28.45447313005621,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,33.92857142857143,21.431184897649857,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,30.0,-32.00072832424261,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.42857142857143,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.964285714285715,-25.330360744270486,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.571428571428572,-29.953276469478407,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index f542562325a40e7c893d57269dfd5f395e9d86b8..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.105,0.047,0.172 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.12,0.057,0.189 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.085,0.21 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.091,0.208 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.133,0.285 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.123,0.048,0.207 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.181,0.119,0.241 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.184,0.124,0.243 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.161,0.309 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.16,0.324 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.167,0.305 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.251,0.452 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.234,0.388 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.282,0.471 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.118,-0.208,-0.049 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.016,-0.005,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.046,0.019,0.078 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.047,0.027,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.12,0.049,0.2 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.02,-0.113,0.124 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.084,0.044,0.129 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.088,0.058,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.079,0.223 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.156,0.075,0.244 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.089,0.208 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.181,0.37 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.306 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.312,0.214,0.394 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.136,-0.233,-0.061 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.017,-0.039,0.005 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.031,-0.001,0.062 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.031,0.001,0.057 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.033,0.185 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.004,-0.126,0.108 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.113 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.073,0.039,0.107 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.132,0.066,0.208 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.142,0.061,0.233 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.08,0.189 -TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.272,0.172,0.357 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.222,0.146,0.292 -TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.301,0.208,0.38 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.265,-0.093 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.049,-0.084,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.031,-0.066,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.0,-0.019,0.019 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.077,0.005,0.152 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.028,-0.162,0.088 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.039,0.012,0.077 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.044,0.014,0.075 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.105,0.04,0.176 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.115,0.033,0.196 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.106,0.046,0.164 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.249,0.143,0.338 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.197,0.115,0.268 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.279,0.178,0.362 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.173,-0.262,-0.1 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.049,-0.074,-0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.032,-0.061,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.0,-0.019,0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.076,0.002,0.156 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.85,-0.028,-0.163,0.085 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.01,0.078 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.043,0.016,0.072 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.105,0.038,0.179 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.115,0.031,0.204 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.045,0.167 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.249,0.14,0.338 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.197,0.112,0.272 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.279,0.178,0.363 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.399,-0.153 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.136,-0.25,-0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.117,-0.227,-0.035 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.083,-0.179,-0.005 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.083,-0.185,-0.002 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.525,0.325,0.725,-0.113,-0.269,0.033 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.041,-0.11,0.022 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.036,-0.131,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.031,0.009,0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.041,0.013,0.071 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.031,-0.011,0.072 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.187,0.106,0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.13,0.09,0.168 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.219,0.144,0.293 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.14,-0.261,-0.051 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.02,-0.142,0.101 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.004,-0.121,0.112 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.027,-0.097,0.14 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.15,0.6,0.027,-0.092,0.14 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.475,0.275,0.675,0.102,-0.034,0.212 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.065,-0.055,0.173 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.07,-0.034,0.168 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,-0.007,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.139,-0.001,0.256 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.13,0.022,0.225 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.269,0.12,0.394 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.625,0.925,0.219,0.088,0.326 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.298,0.155,0.423 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.22,-0.318,-0.135 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.092,-0.148,-0.046 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.074,-0.128,-0.029 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.041,-0.083,-0.012 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.084,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.039,-0.022,0.099 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.07,-0.21,0.052 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.004,-0.04,0.038 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,0.015,0.12 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,0.008,0.144 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.069,0.019,0.118 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.218,0.111,0.301 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.164,0.088,0.227 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.249,0.152,0.325 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.226,-0.321,-0.141 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.097,-0.134,-0.061 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.079,-0.12,-0.04 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.046,-0.081,-0.014 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.045,-0.077,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.035,-0.045,0.116 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.075,-0.201,0.033 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.004,-0.04,0.038 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.064,-0.009,0.142 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.075,-0.013,0.163 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.065,0.006,0.122 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.215,0.092,0.312 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.16,0.068,0.237 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.246,0.133,0.337 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.447,-0.191 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.287,-0.085 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.153,-0.263,-0.071 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.117,-0.214,-0.042 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.218,-0.039 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.032,-0.054,-0.009 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.148,-0.32,0.007 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.073,-0.137,-0.015 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.069,-0.166,0.009 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.011,-0.014,0.04 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.001,-0.04,0.048 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.161,0.08,0.236 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.103,0.062,0.142 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.194,0.124,0.261 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.48,-0.19 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.185,-0.323,-0.081 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.166,-0.303,-0.065 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.13,-0.244,-0.035 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.13,-0.256,-0.032 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.043,-0.076,-0.013 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.161,-0.344,0.001 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.168,-0.009 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.081,-0.194,0.013 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.011,-0.041,0.014 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.011,-0.069,0.042 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.151,0.064,0.232 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.093,0.047,0.135 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.257 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.439,-0.2 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.263,-0.097 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.153,-0.233,-0.087 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.196,-0.049 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.201,-0.047 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.032,-0.077,0.011 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.149,-0.291,-0.022 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.074,-0.134,-0.019 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.069,-0.139,-0.006 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.001,-0.051,0.039 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.011,-0.044,0.064 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.072,0.243 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.102,0.056,0.141 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.194,0.113,0.268 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.826,-0.336 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.396,-0.588,-0.221 -Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.374,-0.555,-0.208 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.332,-0.51,-0.167 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.331,-0.511,-0.163 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.229,-0.361,-0.119 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.369,-0.651,-0.136 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.279,-0.43,-0.125 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.273,-0.454,-0.101 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.192,-0.309,-0.087 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.178,-0.301,-0.068 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.191,-0.321,-0.078 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.375,0.225,0.525,-0.069,-0.161,0.001 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.04,0.025,0.058 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.46,-0.635,-0.305 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.306,-0.442,-0.185 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.285,-0.413,-0.17 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.245,-0.366,-0.13 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.245,-0.374,-0.126 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.15,-0.202,-0.099 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.075,0.375,-0.28,-0.484,-0.097 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.196,-0.294,-0.096 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.191,-0.311,-0.073 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.115,-0.166,-0.066 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.102,-0.156,-0.049 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.114,-0.165,-0.06 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.625,0.475,0.775,0.065,-0.001,0.139 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.102,0.042,0.167 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-0.892,-0.394 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.454,-0.651,-0.273 -Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.43,-0.613,-0.262 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.387,-0.568,-0.217 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.386,-0.569,-0.217 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.28,-0.414,-0.168 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.425,-0.733,-0.183 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.332,-0.481,-0.179 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.326,-0.508,-0.153 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.241,-0.353,-0.142 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.227,-0.346,-0.122 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.24,-0.366,-0.127 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.041,-0.061,-0.025 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.113,-0.201,-0.044 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index a8808c5bc6bc6776490cbb7c781ca64a0eb56e4b..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.113,0.05,0.183 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.174 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.15,0.091,0.211 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.095,0.219 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.189,0.119,0.253 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.132,0.051,0.216 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.185,0.334 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.19,0.335 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.186,0.302 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.219,0.389 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.291,0.735 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.349,0.516 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.436,0.64 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.454,0.651 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.127,-0.224,-0.052 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.02,0.012 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.019,0.066 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.05,0.022,0.081 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.046,0.129 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.021,-0.113,0.133 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.103,0.244 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.119,0.221 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.116,0.183 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.146,0.291 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.191,0.704 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.285,0.444 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.386,0.578 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.406,0.593 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.122,-0.211,-0.053 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.012,0.019 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.046,0.027,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.054,0.028,0.086 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.089,0.048,0.136 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.026,-0.105,0.134 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.254 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.118,0.229 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.125,0.183 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.141,0.299 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.489,0.194,0.705 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.452 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.383,0.581 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.404,0.595 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.176,-0.268,-0.1 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.071,-0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.048,-0.072,-0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.8,0.009,-0.005,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.046,0.016,0.087 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.021,-0.159,0.096 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.135,0.059,0.211 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.133,0.079,0.19 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.085,0.14 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.183,0.106,0.259 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.468,0.158,0.691 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.341,0.248,0.419 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.472,0.356,0.561 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.376,0.575 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.187,-0.28,-0.105 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.053,-0.088,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.058,-0.094,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.2,0.575,-0.009,-0.026,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.037,0.009,0.076 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.03,-0.173,0.09 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.127,0.05,0.204 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.125,0.069,0.182 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.104,0.077,0.13 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.176,0.099,0.252 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.466,0.154,0.691 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.24,0.415 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.467,0.348,0.557 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.484,0.368,0.573 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.339,-0.135 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.148,-0.048 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.098,-0.158,-0.05 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.048,-0.095,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.038,-0.083,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.07,-0.211,0.053 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,0.03,0.155 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.092,0.047,0.141 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.07,0.026,0.106 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.144,0.083,0.205 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.447,0.124,0.688 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.224,0.379 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.446,0.331,0.535 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.464,0.352,0.552 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.152,-0.275,-0.053 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.022,-0.153,0.101 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.027,-0.155,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.02,-0.106,0.137 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.029,-0.099,0.148 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.065,-0.056,0.174 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.875,0.152,0.038,0.257 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.151,0.04,0.249 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.13,0.03,0.224 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.2,0.065,0.321 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.475,0.164,0.703 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.354,0.221,0.462 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.483,0.342,0.595 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.499,0.364,0.61 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.501,-0.227 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.323,-0.115 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.211,-0.34,-0.113 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.156,-0.267,-0.062 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.145,-0.256,-0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.103,-0.183,-0.031 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.125,0.525,-0.179,-0.346,-0.04 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.002,-0.063,0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.025,-0.123,0.055 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,0.003,0.105 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.399,0.052,0.666 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.239,0.176,0.293 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.284,0.48 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.307,0.497 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.504,-0.234 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.203,-0.284,-0.135 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.298,-0.134 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.154,-0.235,-0.086 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.143,-0.222,-0.074 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.101,-0.164,-0.05 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.177,-0.331,-0.041 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.002,-0.049,0.059 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.088,0.037 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.058,0.0,0.116 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.395,0.042,0.661 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.165,0.309 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.278,0.486 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.302,0.502 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.432,-0.229 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.223,-0.132 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.181,-0.224,-0.143 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.163,-0.093 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.116,-0.15,-0.084 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.075,-0.118,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.15,-0.288,-0.031 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.059,0.109 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.039,0.081 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,-0.01,0.169 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.403,0.057,0.668 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.257,0.152,0.353 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.405,0.266,0.51 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.424,0.286,0.526 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.637,-0.281 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.411,-0.171 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.427,-0.164 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.225,-0.349,-0.118 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.213,-0.337,-0.11 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.168,-0.258,-0.09 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.25,-0.474,-0.07 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.06,-0.117,-0.003 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.061,-0.131,-0.0 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.203,0.01 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.369,-0.012,0.652 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.193,0.137,0.247 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.353,0.251,0.43 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.277,0.447 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.192,-2.773,-0.411 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.953,-2.38,-0.237 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.958,-2.393,-0.241 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.881,-2.241,-0.188 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.872,-2.24,-0.181 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.809,-2.209,-0.142 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.905,-2.366,-0.197 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.665,-1.992,-0.055 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.653,-1.949,-0.043 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.676,-2.014,-0.06 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.586,-1.876,0.012 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.301,-1.412,0.175 -AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.043,-1.076,0.378 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.014,-1.022,0.397 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.067,-0.536 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.797,-0.399 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.825,-0.393 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.518,-0.722,-0.33 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.504,-0.709,-0.316 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.448,-0.611,-0.288 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.549,-0.858,-0.284 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.313,-0.414,-0.213 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.447,-0.197 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.347,-0.545,-0.179 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.239,-0.328,-0.159 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.231,-0.212,0.585 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.725,0.6,0.85,0.198,0.091,0.295 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.122,0.317 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.776,-0.774 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.371,-0.63 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.984,-1.389,-0.621 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.893,-1.279,-0.553 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.876,-1.258,-0.534 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.807,-1.152,-0.495 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.932,-1.47,-0.519 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.639,-0.922,-0.397 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.641,-0.945,-0.386 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.68,-1.04,-0.362 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.546,-0.756,-0.335 -Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.041,-0.607,0.518 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.275,0.15,0.4,-0.248,-0.419,-0.101 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.032,0.021,0.044 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.3,-1.866,-0.83 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.04,-1.458,-0.682 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.467,-0.677 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.356,-0.603 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.938,-1.342,-0.582 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.866,-1.232,-0.544 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.996,-1.564,-0.573 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.988,-0.444 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.695,-1.006,-0.433 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.736,-1.111,-0.401 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.597,-0.81,-0.383 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.014,-0.659,0.505 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.289,-0.465,-0.138 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.033,-0.046,-0.022 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index b5d270e1cda7f10c6a720fcf1b7ea0333e4944a4..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.067,0.202 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.133,0.063,0.207 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.008,0.135 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.191,0.119,0.266 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.186,0.116,0.256 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.207,0.141,0.269 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.17,0.328 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.208,0.142,0.275 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.188,0.33 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.199,0.353 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.203,0.387 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.399,0.29,0.491 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.288,0.436 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.332,0.512 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.253,-0.072 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.07,-0.215,0.048 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.068,0.037,0.103 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.062,0.034,0.095 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.086,0.053,0.125 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.137,0.052,0.228 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.088,0.049,0.127 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.077,0.221 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.167,0.09,0.251 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.188,0.087,0.297 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.307,0.2,0.396 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.19,0.34 -TiRex,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.34,0.247,0.421 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.261,-0.068 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.071,-0.223,0.052 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.037,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.061,0.032,0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.086,0.043,0.132 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.045,0.232 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.087,0.052,0.122 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.068,0.228 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.166,0.08,0.258 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.079,0.303 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.307,0.194,0.403 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.266,0.186,0.344 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.339,0.237,0.429 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.156,-0.008 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.066,-0.051,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.066,-0.055,0.182 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,0.005,0.24 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.008,0.231 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.146,0.042,0.24 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.194,0.085,0.292 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.148,0.034,0.25 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.101,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.222,0.109,0.322 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.242,0.11,0.353 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.352,0.228,0.461 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.315,0.215,0.405 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.383,0.264,0.482 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.236,-0.362,-0.135 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.073,-0.115,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.112,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.148,-0.317,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.475,0.3,0.65,-0.006,-0.032,0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.75,0.02,-0.025,0.064 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.074,-0.033,0.18 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.021,-0.011,0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.086,-0.014,0.17 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.008,0.208 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.129,0.008,0.253 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.257,0.121,0.363 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.119,0.299 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.176,0.39 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.229,-0.345,-0.131 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.066,-0.104,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.065,-0.104,-0.033 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.141,-0.301,-0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.35,0.7,0.006,-0.02,0.031 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.751,0.026,-0.01,0.064 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.08,-0.017,0.174 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.027,-0.001,0.058 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.092,0.002,0.17 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.112,0.023,0.2 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.135,0.024,0.244 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.261,0.134,0.365 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.218,0.132,0.3 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.296,0.187,0.39 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.261,-0.368,-0.164 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.095,-0.142,-0.056 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.094,-0.152,-0.045 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.172,-0.317,-0.044 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.675,-0.02,-0.068,0.025 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.249,0.675,-0.027,-0.068,0.009 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.055,-0.018,0.129 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.042,0.045 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.067,0.005,0.124 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.088,0.024,0.156 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.112,0.022,0.207 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.241,0.132,0.329 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.197,0.128,0.262 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.182,0.356 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.335,-0.487,-0.205 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.296,-0.055 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.302,-0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.24,-0.412,-0.093 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.08,-0.219,0.032 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.087,-0.211,0.016 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.058,-0.148,0.017 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.057,-0.184,0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,-0.03,0.049 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.035,0.004,0.065 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.06,0.016,0.115 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.11,0.277 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.151,0.109,0.188 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.235,0.159,0.308 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.263,-0.379,-0.165 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.096,-0.146,-0.052 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.095,-0.139,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.173,-0.334,-0.035 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.022,-0.055,0.011 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.028,-0.062,0.001 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.047,0.04 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.054,-0.047,0.156 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.066,-0.032,0.151 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.087,-0.006,0.183 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.11,-0.008,0.23 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.24,0.101,0.351 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.196,0.103,0.284 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.276,0.155,0.379 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.493,-0.231 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.174,-0.284,-0.083 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.173,-0.296,-0.073 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.41,-0.113 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.094,-0.205,0.014 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.101,-0.204,-0.002 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.072,-0.142,-0.005 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.052,0.029 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.071,-0.179,0.031 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.022,-0.021,0.062 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.047,-0.015,0.12 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.187,0.107,0.262 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.139,0.1,0.176 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.155,0.292 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.546,-0.249 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.2,-0.335,-0.099 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.2,-0.348,-0.087 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.285,-0.475,-0.123 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.119,-0.263,-0.008 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.126,-0.25,-0.024 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.185,-0.024 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.036,-0.069,-0.004 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.095,-0.223,0.006 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.023,-0.066,0.021 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.026,-0.019,0.079 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.168,0.076,0.251 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.079,0.164 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.208,0.134,0.278 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.631,-0.254 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.232,-0.422,-0.095 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.231,-0.436,-0.086 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.319,-0.545,-0.124 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.149,-0.338,-0.008 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.156,-0.323,-0.025 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.126,-0.261,-0.023 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.063,-0.13,-0.016 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.124,-0.298,0.008 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.05,-0.137,0.015 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.026,-0.086,0.019 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.146,0.035,0.239 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.028,0.152 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.187,0.093,0.267 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.663,-0.964,-0.408 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.443,-0.656,-0.25 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.442,-0.676,-0.24 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.544,-0.854,-0.296 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.345,-0.569,-0.138 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.353,-0.574,-0.155 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.318,-0.491,-0.152 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.246,-0.383,-0.124 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.316,-0.541,-0.112 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.229,-0.355,-0.12 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.202,-0.335,-0.082 -Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.171,-0.315,-0.037 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.375,0.225,0.525,-0.058,-0.148,0.031 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.026,0.071 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.772,-0.404 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.514,-0.235 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.363,-0.524,-0.228 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.46,-0.681,-0.274 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.271,-0.426,-0.135 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.279,-0.429,-0.152 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.246,-0.354,-0.147 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.177,-0.231,-0.122 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.244,-0.396,-0.115 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.162,-0.213,-0.111 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.136,-0.197,-0.086 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.179,-0.029 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.625,0.475,0.775,0.055,-0.032,0.129 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.1,0.03,0.167 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-1.051,-0.497 -Drift,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.515,-0.727,-0.327 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.514,-0.75,-0.311 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.621,-0.932,-0.359 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.638,-0.213 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.421,-0.639,-0.23 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.384,-0.552,-0.223 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.308,-0.445,-0.189 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.382,-0.61,-0.183 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.412,-0.184 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.262,-0.386,-0.155 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.23,-0.365,-0.103 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.076,-0.026 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.111,-0.2,-0.031 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index afeed17223ea90ccdf139cf6f287e297265d5c52..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.06,0.196 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.121,0.056,0.189 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.071,-0.006,0.147 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.114,0.243 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.179,0.113,0.245 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.203,0.132,0.268 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.215,0.374 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.199,0.314 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.211,0.352 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.255,0.432 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.332,0.765 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.404,0.561 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.488,0.669 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.505,0.682 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.244,-0.064 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.063,-0.209,0.061 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.091 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.06,0.034,0.093 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,0.051,0.13 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.116,0.279 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.113,0.191 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.118,0.243 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.253,0.167,0.338 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.526,0.225,0.736 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.332,0.489 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.429,0.611 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.448,0.625 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.138,-0.233,-0.059 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.014,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.057,-0.2,0.063 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.038,0.097 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.066,0.036,0.099 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.093,0.047,0.143 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.202,0.117,0.289 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.156,0.12,0.192 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.184,0.119,0.251 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.257,0.165,0.346 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.527,0.231,0.737 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.331,0.495 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.428,0.616 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.45,0.629 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.077,-0.172,0.006 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.059,-0.065,0.173 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.054,-0.068,0.167 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.117,-0.005,0.229 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.116,-0.01,0.228 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.142,0.033,0.24 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.244,0.136,0.336 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.201,0.092,0.303 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.228,0.116,0.318 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.297,0.169,0.408 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.551,0.27,0.751 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.448,0.334,0.545 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.559,0.436,0.655 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.575,0.456,0.668 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.322,-0.129 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.1,-0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.107,-0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.132,-0.296,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.525,0.35,0.7,-0.001,-0.023,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.028,-0.02,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.144,0.053,0.238 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.065,0.127 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.055,0.194 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.106,0.299 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.498,0.179,0.722 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.375,0.282,0.455 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.501,0.387,0.59 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.519,0.411,0.602 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.218,-0.324,-0.127 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.064,-0.102,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.07,-0.11,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.131,-0.295,0.009 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.475,0.3,0.65,0.001,-0.022,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.029,-0.012,0.07 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.145,0.063,0.23 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.096,0.066,0.128 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.065,0.19 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.205,0.115,0.291 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.501,0.186,0.725 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.375,0.287,0.452 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.502,0.387,0.587 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.519,0.41,0.603 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.366,-0.152 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.096,-0.149,-0.054 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.102,-0.167,-0.049 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.165,-0.316,-0.034 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.029,-0.082,0.019 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.03,-0.075,0.012 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.12,0.055,0.184 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.069,0.019,0.123 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.101,0.059,0.146 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.112,0.251 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.488,0.156,0.72 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.279,0.424 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.378,0.569 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.402,0.583 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.597,-0.273 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.387,-0.131 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.253,-0.406,-0.133 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.324,-0.506,-0.158 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.169,-0.313,-0.056 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.17,-0.298,-0.067 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.136,-0.226,-0.059 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.058,-0.181,0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.022,-0.075,0.021 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.07,0.018,0.117 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.429,0.064,0.691 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.269,0.21,0.321 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.417,0.314,0.502 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.339,0.519 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.347,-0.457,-0.248 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.236,-0.127 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.237,-0.136 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.251,-0.435,-0.101 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.145,-0.069 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.106,-0.147,-0.07 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.074,-0.14,-0.019 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.055,-0.05,0.154 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.034,-0.055,0.116 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.12,0.006,0.226 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.447,0.097,0.697 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.203,0.402 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.449,0.314,0.553 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.468,0.337,0.567 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.395,-0.544,-0.267 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.321,-0.134 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.226,-0.336,-0.135 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.296,-0.466,-0.132 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.241,-0.058 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.235,-0.069 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.112,-0.17,-0.062 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.021,-0.022,0.07 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.035,-0.131,0.052 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.089,0.037,0.149 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.435,0.075,0.691 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.219,0.346 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.327,0.513 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.449,0.355,0.529 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.759,-0.343 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.338,-0.51,-0.2 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.346,-0.529,-0.198 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.423,-0.689,-0.203 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.256,-0.426,-0.119 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.258,-0.411,-0.13 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.334,-0.126 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.075,-0.132,-0.018 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.137,-0.293,-0.006 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.098,-0.175,-0.038 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.392,-0.012,0.671 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.158,0.27 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.272,0.447 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.299,0.464 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.396,-3.252,-0.496 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.109,-2.782,-0.291 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.115,-2.802,-0.3 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-1.228,-3.019,-0.37 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.99,-2.591,-0.219 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.003,-2.631,-0.228 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.952,-2.567,-0.185 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.75,-2.233,-0.069 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.809,-2.3,-0.108 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.769,-2.239,-0.081 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.644,-2.042,0.012 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.32,-1.467,0.188 -AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.053,-1.109,0.384 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.021,-1.06,0.404 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.95,-1.275,-0.677 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.703,-0.957,-0.497 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-0.982,-0.495 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.811,-1.198,-0.501 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.599,-0.835,-0.393 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.601,-0.824,-0.402 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.387 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.368,-0.473,-0.266 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.447,-0.673,-0.255 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.529,-0.28 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.273,-0.369,-0.188 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.242,-0.231,0.595 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.725,0.6,0.85,0.202,0.09,0.304 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.23,0.125,0.325 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.443,-2.025,-0.952 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.135,-1.569,-0.753 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.148,-1.606,-0.749 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.27,-1.898,-0.773 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.004,-1.437,-0.632 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.006,-1.422,-0.631 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.948,-1.319,-0.609 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.715,-1.009,-0.457 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.814,-1.235,-0.458 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-1.055,-0.486 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.807,-0.374 -Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.051,-0.623,0.526 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.275,0.15,0.4,-0.253,-0.437,-0.099 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.036,0.022,0.051 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.534,-2.145,-1.018 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.214,-1.665,-0.811 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.693,-0.82 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.353,-2.009,-0.838 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.078,-1.51,-0.697 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.08,-1.516,-0.696 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.02,-1.398,-0.672 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.778,-1.08,-0.514 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.88,-1.308,-0.508 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.816,-1.123,-0.55 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.654,-0.866,-0.426 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.021,-0.678,0.515 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.3,-0.481,-0.143 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.037,-0.053,-0.022 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 8ecc18bc63bac9b97163cbed6d474bebd94c16cd..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.5,32.33462583489032,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.14285714285714,27.393757851738563,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285714,28.58993577814578,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,71.07142857142857,27.327119457216774,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.57142857142856,26.21901130113915,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,25.161403711604645,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,64.28571428571429,23.2064084542026,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,51.25000000000001,22.24063378407398,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,19.015945347692732,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,36.07142857142858,17.603485534435016,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,33.92857142857143,14.206772558259006,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,32.85714285714285,14.04647577833794,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.392857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.142857142857146,-12.05830008930513,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.071428571428572,-13.72534923283335,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 182b6536def361a147efb73ad650cdd6f03117e2..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.28571428571429,40.241553662568045,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,86.07142857142858,35.70932539579903,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.78571428571428,36.215123642926486,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,75.0,35.235748261795464,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,73.92857142857142,34.57369587246277,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,33.56878978918307,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.32142857142858,30.731316106319685,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 -Sundial-Base,47.14285714285714,26.53990685654952,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,42.142857142857146,23.310736729304406,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,38.214285714285715,21.22121312418056,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,35.35714285714285,20.12076697801173,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.071428571428573,15.776905389926565,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.035714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.642857142857144,-43.69147280742762,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.571428571428571,-44.7554216841189,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 7a26151826a061e5f35bd24cb746b86860a3b6ec..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.21428571428572,34.73588594604664,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.5,30.331123145065753,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,80.35714285714286,30.04838154281978,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.0,29.395644929393384,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,67.14285714285715,27.11185183289192,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,62.85714285714287,27.120126304305725,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,61.78571428571429,24.782966216672285,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.321428571428555,25.898630077241936,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 -Stat. Ensemble,46.42857142857142,20.048347663551425,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,36.07142857142858,17.777947817676132,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,36.07142857142857,18.813705921644818,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.28571428571428,14.370876577265967,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.64285714285714,-11.759514056529575,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.607142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.714285714285714,-13.858459934925316,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index c8c1c5778d270b691f9f71929822e85e04da66db..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.21428571428571,44.77656337400558,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,84.28571428571429,40.60690863759879,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.57142857142857,40.69540369974936,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,75.71428571428572,39.91164248768357,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.35714285714286,38.313765874575154,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,38.175979444656846,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.96428571428571,36.67704253513349,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 -Sundial-Base,48.57142857142856,31.246086693430332,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,43.21428571428571,25.454460772291498,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,41.07142857142857,25.85193480620731,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,33.214285714285715,21.589312538875138,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.000000000000007,16.511025466699557,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.178571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.0,-44.1490350185211,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.214285714285714,-45.70449009907933,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 4e1d6474d84d268a1dd4da8585ba42bfb8f1816d..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.004,0.116 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.068,0.007,0.144 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.069,0.013,0.135 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.083,0.034,0.145 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.052,0.194 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.096,0.031,0.163 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.13,0.052,0.21 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.164,0.11,0.226 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.118,0.24 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.141,0.283 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.149,0.284 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.255,0.4 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.313,0.486 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.33,0.491 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.131,0.004 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.016,-0.004,0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.017,0.001,0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.032,0.008,0.064 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.07,0.017,0.151 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.046,0.022,0.07 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.082,-0.026,0.178 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.075,0.164 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.133,0.089,0.18 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.111,0.229 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.244 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.221,0.371 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.286,0.442 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.306,0.441 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.073,-0.169,-0.007 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.017,-0.043,0.004 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.001,-0.025,0.024 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.013,0.041 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,0.002,0.123 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,-0.002,0.059 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.066,-0.053,0.152 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.103,0.06,0.153 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.119,0.07,0.168 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.154,0.1,0.217 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.155,0.096,0.223 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.214,0.351 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.281,0.426 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.427 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.074,-0.156,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.035,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.001,-0.024,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.015,-0.006,0.043 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.005,0.136 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,0.005,0.052 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.05,0.167 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.103,0.064,0.146 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.118,0.076,0.163 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.153,0.096,0.221 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.096,0.23 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.208,0.361 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.275,0.427 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.292,0.425 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.09,-0.169,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.033,-0.069,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.016,-0.043,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.015,-0.045,0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.039,-0.003,0.099 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.029,0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.051,-0.061,0.137 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.044,0.137 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.049,0.158 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.205 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.093,0.197 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.207,0.334 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.274,0.412 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.289,0.414 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.241,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.075,-0.178,-0.018 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.058,-0.14,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.157,0.005 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.041,-0.11,0.003 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.026,-0.135,0.044 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.012,-0.089,0.08 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,-0.051,0.126 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.068,-0.047,0.15 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.0,0.193 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.107,0.069,0.148 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.197,0.268 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.253,0.381 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.263,0.394 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.106,-0.194,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.048,-0.075,-0.022 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.062,0.002 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.055,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.049,0.028 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.025,-0.046,0.119 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.038,-0.089,0.144 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.076,0.034,0.121 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.049,0.133 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.071,0.19 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.067,0.212 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.179,0.345 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.257,0.414 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.279,0.409 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.149,-0.266,-0.055 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.089,-0.216,0.025 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.18,0.05 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.2,0.047 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.158,0.058 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.013,-0.087,0.082 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.169,0.082 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.04,-0.078,0.149 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,-0.066,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.094,-0.021,0.202 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.008,0.198 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.222,0.153,0.304 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.306,0.21,0.425 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.316,0.22,0.434 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.197,-0.291,-0.123 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.197,-0.081 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.115,-0.18,-0.063 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.114,-0.171,-0.068 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.098,-0.159,-0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.055,-0.144,0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.082,-0.137,-0.036 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.041,-0.175,0.072 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,-0.009,0.042 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,0.005,0.104 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.058,0.002,0.143 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.19,0.101,0.291 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.183,0.374 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.288,0.199,0.374 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.218,-0.316,-0.133 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.154,-0.22,-0.098 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.135,-0.202,-0.075 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.134,-0.195,-0.083 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.188,-0.052 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.073,-0.176,0.045 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.154,-0.052 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.06,-0.203,0.062 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.017,-0.044,0.009 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.04,-0.015,0.097 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.041,-0.018,0.131 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.176,0.084,0.283 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.265,0.161,0.361 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.275,0.183,0.363 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.395,-0.164 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.297,-0.125 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.182,-0.278,-0.111 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.181,-0.283,-0.106 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.163,-0.258,-0.083 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.239,-0.0 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.146,-0.234,-0.076 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.103,-0.253,0.021 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.115,-0.005 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.107,0.015 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.093,0.103 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.039,0.25 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.121,0.342 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.246,0.141,0.346 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.397,-0.175 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.204,-0.323,-0.12 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.287,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.183,-0.298,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.245,-0.102 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.119,-0.174,-0.074 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.27,-0.071 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.105,-0.247,-0.008 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.061,-0.167,-0.002 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.043,-0.15,0.018 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.115,0.085 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.14,0.092,0.186 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.163,0.308 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.244,0.171,0.325 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.668,-0.342 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.591,-0.283 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.541,-0.272 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.565,-0.263 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.501,-0.261 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.366,-0.246 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.526,-0.217 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.286,-0.436,-0.18 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.235,-0.411,-0.113 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.214,-0.395,-0.092 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.333,-0.04 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.163,-0.229,-0.101 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.108,0.029,0.194 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.121,0.027,0.218 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-0.945,-0.455 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.569,-0.792,-0.4 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.743,-0.391 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.542,-0.746,-0.38 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.699,-0.378 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.459,-0.615,-0.338 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.497,-0.706,-0.346 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.441,-0.74,-0.266 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.384,-0.597,-0.223 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.36,-0.565,-0.192 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.306,-0.52,-0.138 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.445,-0.195 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.121,-0.24,-0.03 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.015,-0.023,0.042 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.681,-0.963,-0.492 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.79,-0.441 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.745,-0.427 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.565,-0.739,-0.413 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.541,-0.708,-0.406 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.65,-0.356 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.52,-0.691,-0.387 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.463,-0.768,-0.282 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.404,-0.599,-0.248 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.38,-0.569,-0.224 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.326,-0.529,-0.164 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.323,-0.481,-0.206 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.137,-0.279,-0.028 -Drift,Naive,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.015,-0.043,0.023 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 988182f661966d508cc6f5839047a89ba89d1b84..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.07,0.01,0.142 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,0.008,0.13 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.077,0.019,0.148 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.033,0.151 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.1,0.031,0.173 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.06,0.221 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.187,0.125,0.255 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.157,0.29 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.162,0.318 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.252,0.186,0.316 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.211,0.369 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.335,0.481 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.506,0.665 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.512,0.666 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.076,-0.166,-0.01 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.008,-0.026,0.008 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.007,-0.014,0.029 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,0.0,0.036 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.032,-0.002,0.06 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,-0.049,0.161 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.078,0.184 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.162,0.107,0.218 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.123,0.25 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.195,0.141,0.254 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.173,0.305 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.297,0.424 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.486,0.622 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.49,0.623 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.149,-0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.008,-0.008,0.026 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.002,0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.025,0.005,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.04,0.01,0.068 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.079,-0.034,0.172 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.085,0.2 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.116,0.224 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.19,0.129,0.256 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.149,0.259 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.172,0.316 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.435 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.485,0.629 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.492,0.628 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.084,-0.174,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.007,-0.03,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.035,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.3,0.6,0.01,-0.007,0.033 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.025,-0.004,0.05 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.055,0.163 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.065,0.194 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.155,0.105,0.208 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.117,0.248 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.141,0.245 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.163,0.305 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.286,0.426 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.477,0.622 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.483,0.624 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.178,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.018,-0.037,-0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.026,-0.048,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.4,0.7,-0.01,-0.034,0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.026,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,-0.061,0.144 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.067,0.168 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.093,0.203 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.24 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.126,0.24 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.223,0.164,0.288 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.288,0.41 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.545,0.475,0.615 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.481,0.617 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.112,-0.209,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.033,-0.063,0.002 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.041,-0.073,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.026,-0.053,0.004 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.05,0.026 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,-0.096,0.148 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.096,0.027,0.182 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.078,0.19 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.157,0.094,0.227 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.211,0.14,0.297 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.42 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.462,0.612 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.471,0.61 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.159,-0.283,-0.064 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.192,0.047 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.086,-0.207,0.033 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.195,0.052 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.168,0.058 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.173,0.087 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.057,-0.026,0.15 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.097,-0.01,0.203 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.121,0.004,0.235 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.133,0.012,0.244 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.178,0.076,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.307,0.228,0.4 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.518,0.42,0.627 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.422,0.63 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.229,-0.342,-0.143 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.226,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.152,-0.249,-0.093 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.241,-0.069 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.202,-0.071 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.106,-0.223,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.061,-0.176,0.025 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.042,-0.066,0.128 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,-0.04,0.165 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,-0.033,0.174 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.071,0.189 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.223,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.412,0.568 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.412,0.573 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.408,-0.187 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.193,-0.279,-0.12 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.288,-0.131 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.263,-0.118 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.172,-0.255,-0.103 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.235,-0.085 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.107,-0.254,0.01 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.044,-0.147,0.061 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.027,-0.044,0.088 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,-0.021,0.097 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.007,0.184 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.233,0.144,0.329 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.466,0.366,0.559 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.47,0.376,0.559 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.318,-0.467,-0.193 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.334,-0.14 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.235,-0.345,-0.148 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.33,-0.132 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.204,-0.315,-0.12 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.186,-0.294,-0.104 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.137,-0.308,-0.004 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.072,-0.198,0.038 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.027,-0.096,0.042 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.063,0.085 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.065,-0.037,0.17 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.108,0.317 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.452,0.342,0.553 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.456,0.348,0.554 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.337,-0.463,-0.228 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.242,-0.34,-0.164 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.349,-0.175 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.324,-0.164 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.316,-0.144 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.153,-0.323,-0.012 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.211,0.032 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.108,0.02 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.093,0.059 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,-0.031,0.15 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.201,0.099,0.306 -AutoETS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.444,0.337,0.542 -AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.448,0.35,0.54 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.586,-0.267 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.439,-0.209 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.462,-0.208 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3,-0.438,-0.195 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.287,-0.404,-0.196 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.268,-0.423,-0.162 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.216,-0.41,-0.082 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.147,-0.233,-0.076 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.098,-0.226,-0.007 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.069,-0.205,0.036 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.177,0.03 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.158,0.102,0.209 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.414,0.325,0.495 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.418,0.325,0.505 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.927,-0.503 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.422 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.771,-0.426 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.741,-0.401 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.695,-0.404 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.723,-0.357 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.444,-0.667,-0.295 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.451,-0.287 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.304,-0.49,-0.169 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.269,-0.465,-0.121 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.252,-0.441,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.187,-0.263,-0.114 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.304,0.226,0.392 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.309,0.214,0.403 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-1.983,-1.026 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.235,-1.643,-0.944 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.253,-1.698,-0.943 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.219,-1.644,-0.913 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.196,-1.597,-0.904 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.579,-0.858 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.074,-1.683,-0.724 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.314,-0.7 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.874,-1.265,-0.578 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.824,-1.239,-0.519 -Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.799,-1.184,-0.509 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.706,-0.979,-0.481 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.437,-0.644,-0.292 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.007,-0.028,0.029 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.422,-1.991,-1.048 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.252,-1.652,-0.959 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.689,-0.969 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.235,-1.657,-0.934 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.212,-1.613,-0.926 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.179,-1.566,-0.889 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.09,-1.705,-0.731 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.971,-1.341,-0.7 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.888,-1.266,-0.602 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.837,-1.24,-0.533 -Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.812,-1.174,-0.538 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.719,-1.02,-0.482 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.448,-0.674,-0.272 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.007,-0.03,0.027 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index fb1f27b5c0b885bea76843f8c54d726a8755d391..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.063,0.007,0.129 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.067,0.006,0.137 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.076,0.014,0.145 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.046,0.168 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.036,0.178 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.132,0.057,0.22 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.044,0.198 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.128,0.244 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.143,0.273 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.196,0.13,0.264 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.164,0.318 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.323,0.51 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.269,0.434 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.345,0.517 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.067,-0.148,-0.007 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.014,0.022 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.044,0.014,0.084 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.044,0.01,0.076 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.161 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.06,-0.063,0.159 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.084,0.171 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.107,0.202 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.142,0.094,0.191 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.186,0.118,0.269 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.298,0.459 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.233,0.39 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.318,0.46 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.072,-0.159,-0.006 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.023,0.014 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.009,-0.01,0.028 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.04,0.005,0.087 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.04,0.016,0.061 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.07,-0.003,0.166 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.056,-0.077,0.163 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.083,0.169 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.106,0.2 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.138,0.094,0.184 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.183,0.115,0.269 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.294,0.463 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.223,0.394 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.316,0.461 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.082,-0.17,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.009,-0.029,0.009 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.031,0.001,0.07 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,0.002,0.058 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.061,-0.007,0.152 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.047,-0.079,0.15 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.117,0.078,0.155 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.141,0.095,0.192 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.086,0.174 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.108,0.255 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.29,0.45 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.225,0.379 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.313,0.45 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.202,-0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.046,-0.091,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.042,-0.096,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.032,-0.075,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.0,-0.059,0.043 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.031,-0.019,0.097 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.016,-0.095,0.097 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.088,0.045,0.134 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.054,0.17 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,0.041,0.159 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.096,0.209 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.277,0.422 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.212,0.338 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.294,0.429 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.217,-0.037 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.046,-0.082,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.042,-0.065,-0.017 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.062,-0.002 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.0,-0.045,0.056 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.031,-0.054,0.141 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.016,-0.127,0.134 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.088,0.039,0.137 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.114,0.07,0.156 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,0.052,0.148 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.074,0.246 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.348,0.267,0.434 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.19,0.369 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.29,0.434 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.153,-0.283,-0.06 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.08,-0.192,-0.012 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.075,-0.2,0.003 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.065,-0.179,0.007 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.032,-0.107,0.019 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.032,-0.165,0.051 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.015,-0.117,0.048 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.059,-0.045,0.137 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.085,-0.04,0.18 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.074,-0.047,0.162 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.122,0.079,0.166 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.258,0.4 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.248,0.204,0.292 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.339,0.265,0.414 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.246,-0.046 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.064,-0.189,0.059 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.195,0.071 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.177,0.073 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.017,-0.107,0.087 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.017,-0.155,0.113 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.015,-0.051,0.104 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.073,-0.034,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.099,-0.022,0.213 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.087,-0.038,0.2 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.135,0.057,0.227 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.337,0.236,0.452 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.259,0.182,0.338 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.349,0.251,0.462 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.323,-0.147 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.206,-0.092 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.203,-0.091 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.132,-0.183,-0.084 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.097,-0.155,-0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.097,-0.159,-0.041 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.063,-0.159,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.079,-0.212,0.033 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.028,-0.014,0.066 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.015,-0.018,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.066,0.009,0.147 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.285,0.196,0.376 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.2,0.121,0.291 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.212,0.383 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.26,-0.375,-0.167 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.254,-0.12 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.25,-0.118 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.165,-0.237,-0.105 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.205,-0.057 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.128,-0.185,-0.075 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.093,-0.22,0.039 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.11,-0.27,0.021 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.028,-0.071,0.013 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.013,-0.053,0.024 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.04,-0.042,0.142 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.264,0.165,0.37 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.178,0.083,0.287 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.278,0.186,0.37 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.244,-0.358,-0.15 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.165,-0.235,-0.104 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.161,-0.225,-0.103 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.15,-0.211,-0.094 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.114,-0.189,-0.043 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.114,-0.174,-0.055 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.193,0.045 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.096,-0.251,0.037 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.015,-0.045,0.018 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.025,0.05 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.008,0.143 -AutoETS,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.274,0.174,0.368 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.099,0.292 -AutoETS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.287,0.195,0.372 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.466,-0.197 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.229,-0.369,-0.134 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.224,-0.367,-0.13 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.343,-0.121 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.264,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.175,-0.326,-0.08 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.199,-0.086 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.156,-0.293,-0.061 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.071,-0.173,-0.009 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.041,-0.165,0.04 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.167,0.008 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.157,0.314 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.144,0.096,0.191 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.171,0.331 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.712,-1.04,-0.477 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.604,-0.849,-0.424 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.862,-0.417 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.819,-0.408 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.533,-0.729,-0.384 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.533,-0.766,-0.365 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.486,-0.666,-0.348 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.508,-0.823,-0.31 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.398,-0.602,-0.244 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.359,-0.588,-0.197 -Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.377,-0.582,-0.21 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.305,-0.458,-0.186 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.118,-0.238,-0.028 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.018,-0.013,0.042 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.768,-0.369 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.641,-0.304 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.649,-0.287 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.61,-0.29 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.51,-0.269 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.584,-0.234 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.329,-0.412,-0.256 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.35,-0.512,-0.223 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.251,-0.411,-0.138 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.216,-0.403,-0.091 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.412,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.168,-0.236,-0.106 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.105,0.027,0.192 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.122,0.03,0.215 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.069,-0.526 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.85,-0.466 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.628,-0.854,-0.461 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.817,-0.455 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.751,-0.416 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.767,-0.408 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.514,-0.706,-0.361 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.537,-0.859,-0.335 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.62,-0.27 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.385,-0.587,-0.229 -Drift,AutoETS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.402,-0.593,-0.242 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.495,-0.206 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.019,-0.044,0.013 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.139,-0.274,-0.031 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index dcc49842ff98749f33fa351c0decc30cc33329bd..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,0.006,0.143 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.069,0.01,0.138 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.081,0.017,0.152 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.042,0.17 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.107,0.033,0.185 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.05,0.205 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.129,0.273 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.195,0.329 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.179,0.328 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.221,0.369 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.252,0.418 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.371,0.518 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.542,0.686 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.621,0.548,0.689 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.167,-0.006 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.005,0.029 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,0.007,0.075 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.039,0.014,0.062 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.062,-0.073,0.164 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.071,0.22 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.203,0.144,0.264 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.139,0.261 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.178,0.307 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.209,0.369 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.332,0.479 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.514,0.651 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.522,0.653 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.074,-0.161,-0.01 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.039,0.014,0.065 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.041,0.002,0.076 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.063,-0.06,0.158 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.084,0.213 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.204,0.146,0.262 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.2,0.139,0.261 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.244,0.177,0.311 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.21,0.366 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.34,0.474 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.518,0.65 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.593,0.524,0.653 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.179,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.012,-0.03,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.701,0.026,-0.0,0.057 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.004,0.056 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.051,-0.082,0.152 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.126,0.064,0.208 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.134,0.255 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.13,0.256 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.168,0.303 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.198,0.357 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.326,0.47 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.509,0.646 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.518,0.647 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.205,-0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.081,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.04,-0.07,-0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.299,0.625,-0.027,-0.061,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.002,-0.054,0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.026,-0.095,0.112 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.103,0.052,0.168 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.173,0.115,0.231 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.168,0.107,0.232 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.213,0.142,0.283 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.19,0.328 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.321,0.445 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.502,0.634 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.512,0.637 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.12,-0.228,-0.035 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.041,-0.067,-0.014 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.042,-0.083,-0.002 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.029,-0.059,0.004 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.046,0.051 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.024,-0.13,0.138 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.101,0.02,0.206 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.171,0.103,0.244 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.166,0.1,0.238 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.139,0.288 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.169,0.351 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.296,0.466 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.493,0.638 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.499,0.637 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.257,-0.053 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.066,-0.197,0.068 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.068,-0.188,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.054,-0.18,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.027,-0.127,0.087 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.16,0.115 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.079,0.008,0.166 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.151,0.042,0.258 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.146,0.021,0.264 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.192,0.062,0.31 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.242,0.133,0.346 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.367,0.276,0.452 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.46,0.657 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.468,0.662 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.375,-0.148 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.281,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.159,-0.27,-0.092 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.144,-0.262,-0.068 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.115,-0.202,-0.054 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.112,-0.26,-0.02 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.086,-0.199,-0.009 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,-0.041,0.168 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.073,-0.055,0.172 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.123,-0.008,0.224 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.176,0.105,0.25 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.257,0.367 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.445,0.597 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.449,0.602 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.49,-0.242 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.255,-0.359,-0.168 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.257,-0.356,-0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.241,-0.342,-0.154 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.208,-0.3,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.206,-0.322,-0.114 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.177,-0.347,-0.044 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.084,-0.201,0.04 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.005,-0.059,0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.009,0.106 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.107,0.03,0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.255,0.176,0.338 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.483,0.391,0.567 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.399,0.572 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.488,-0.218 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.354,-0.162 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.25,-0.353,-0.162 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.345,-0.149 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.202,-0.302,-0.12 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.199,-0.312,-0.111 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.171,-0.359,-0.021 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.078,-0.208,0.052 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.005,-0.04,0.055 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.054,0.005,0.11 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.112,0.026,0.209 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.259,0.166,0.35 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.486,0.386,0.577 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.491,0.395,0.58 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.584,-0.283 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.443,-0.216 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.451,-0.215 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.435,-0.202 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.271,-0.395,-0.165 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.268,-0.405,-0.162 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.238,-0.449,-0.066 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.14,-0.289,0.008 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.052,-0.118,0.009 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.057,-0.124,-0.005 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,-0.025,0.161 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.216,0.121,0.317 -AutoETS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.456,0.355,0.549 -AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.462,0.365,0.555 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.719,-0.337 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.585,-0.264 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.408,-0.577,-0.266 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.555,-0.247 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.488,-0.235 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.542,-0.204 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.318,-0.529,-0.154 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.214,-0.333,-0.118 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.12,-0.241,-0.031 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.126,-0.264,-0.027 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.065,-0.193,0.024 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.165,0.111,0.215 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.421,0.332,0.503 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.427,0.334,0.515 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.811,-1.075,-0.59 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.684,-0.918,-0.498 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-0.901,-0.515 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-0.888,-0.484 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.801,-0.472 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.872,-0.42 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.579,-0.824,-0.381 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.454,-0.579,-0.346 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.341,-0.512,-0.213 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.349,-0.539,-0.2 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.275,-0.464,-0.138 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.198,-0.273,-0.125 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.306,0.221,0.392 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.314,0.217,0.405 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.18,-1.183 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.427,-1.861,-1.056 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.431,-1.857,-1.076 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.399,-1.824,-1.038 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.337,-1.735,-1.009 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.332,-1.759,-0.974 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.276,-1.915,-0.852 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.097,-1.48,-0.802 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.934,-1.31,-0.642 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.944,-1.364,-0.629 -Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.838,-1.216,-0.551 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.727,-1.011,-0.497 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.441,-0.644,-0.284 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.011,-0.019,0.03 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.638,-2.219,-1.211 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.453,-1.88,-1.093 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.457,-1.885,-1.102 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.425,-1.836,-1.076 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.362,-1.756,-1.048 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.357,-1.757,-0.995 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-1.962,-0.88 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.119,-1.512,-0.815 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.955,-1.336,-0.664 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.965,-1.381,-0.653 -Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.858,-1.247,-0.575 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.745,-1.06,-0.502 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.457,-0.679,-0.276 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.011,-0.031,0.019 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 5dcf72c974f33efc315fd97ee3b673ac24f01f21..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.18181818181819,43.27459392940457,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.5974025974026,32.8898005652727,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.78571428571429,33.495947984841536,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,72.4025974025974,37.03738049424087,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,71.91558441558443,32.91567356681183,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,67.04545454545455,30.36785516060497,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.72077922077922,31.366273254344446,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Sundial-Base,65.58441558441558,33.222788259935065,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.63636363636364,9.898493888478555,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 -AutoARIMA,33.11688311688313,5.982141659287521,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 -AutoTheta,29.220779220779225,3.9989847727641026,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,24.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.935064935064934,-42.822027329975775,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,9.74025974025974,-40.06899253716452,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Drift,8.116883116883116,-48.09174159738534,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 21ed1e463412b5a6156ad8dba01cd5cdde265b1e..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.48051948051949,54.953226018906975,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,83.11688311688312,46.668743688275406,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.75974025974025,46.31983640086111,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,74.67532467532466,49.0537508694169,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,73.53896103896103,45.92776459924427,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.34415584415586,43.86628917011185,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.69480519480518,44.43807109311596,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.11688311688312,42.15221432677937,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,40.909090909090914,15.192949434763204,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Stat. Ensemble,36.36363636363637,11.071814783556256,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Seasonal Naive,23.701298701298704,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,18.831168831168828,-18.399683257143185,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,16.233766233766236,-115.54487614262277,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.337662337662337,-88.45845966507049,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.896103896103896,-93.63270989430306,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 7904adb7d1c630d2a8d43415530a0877b7847612..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.20779220779221,48.442211622642596,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,74.35064935064936,43.04207391797321,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,74.02597402597402,38.16990011187224,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.53896103896103,38.84505904491324,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.66883116883118,36.99654962186136,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.34415584415584,37.34153521192375,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,68.34415584415584,37.127692710312544,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Sundial-Base,61.68831168831168,37.11101321471857,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,39.285714285714285,13.827496123030514,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 -AutoARIMA,27.92207792207792,3.7229772082420842,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 -AutoTheta,27.597402597402592,8.112534719932462,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,22.727272727272723,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 -Naive,21.1038961038961,-23.683182625995535,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,17.207792207792206,-40.71283512465331,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.987012987012985,-28.29415186104791,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index ab09594c5da42cce2fd0615854b89e0a20df830d..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.48051948051949,59.682309139891906,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.14285714285714,51.65057902169086,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.11038961038962,51.631051239780376,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,76.2987012987013,54.56690402717588,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.94155844155841,50.29303698824681,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.99350649350649,50.06921700286738,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.01948051948051,49.586247339686665,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Sundial-Base,57.46753246753248,46.24435266062466,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,38.63636363636363,16.242226994766373,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Stat. Ensemble,38.311688311688314,13.067151299916691,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Seasonal Naive,23.701298701298704,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,19.155844155844157,-14.943560751678797,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,15.909090909090912,-129.66660309670814,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.311688311688313,-74.36309674872763,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.51948051948052,-79.2278868482116,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 1b95f2b400adced536b4d705e6c0e0d82f72b6fa..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.155,0.074,0.232 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.147,0.067,0.222 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.099,0.05,0.148 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.154,0.078,0.231 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.258 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.242 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.223 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.293,0.446 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.316,0.477 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.34,0.473 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.348,0.515 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.603,0.516,0.671 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.509,0.672 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.53,0.683 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.183,-0.301,-0.08 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.009,-0.042,0.022 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.317,0.727,-0.066,-0.195,0.026 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.0,-0.055,0.035 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.036,-0.009,0.097 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.022,-0.002,0.045 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,-0.005,-0.116,0.079 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.193,0.323 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.286,0.22,0.357 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.243,0.359 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.253,0.409 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.444,0.599 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.434,0.607 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.463,0.615 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.172,-0.285,-0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.009,-0.023,0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.056,-0.184,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.009,-0.035,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.045,-0.004,0.102 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.705,0.523,0.864,0.031,-0.006,0.066 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.004,-0.108,0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.262,0.183,0.343 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.293,0.213,0.37 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.307,0.236,0.376 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.248,0.422 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.442,0.606 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.435,0.616 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.462,0.621 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.11,-0.174,-0.053 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.683,0.062,-0.027,0.163 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.053,-0.039,0.156 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.061,-0.036,0.17 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.096,0.005,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.083,0.004,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.057,-0.042,0.158 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.301,0.219,0.379 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.33,0.242,0.418 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.344,0.271,0.413 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.286,0.455 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.454,0.636 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.463,0.634 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.474,0.648 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.183,-0.301,-0.084 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.0,-0.037,0.052 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.009,-0.045,0.034 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.065,-0.205,0.035 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.037,-0.015,0.099 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.023,-0.02,0.084 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.005,-0.119,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.255,0.173,0.347 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.286,0.206,0.382 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.231,0.382 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.236,0.432 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.438,0.604 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.429,0.618 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.457,0.619 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.347,-0.122 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.038,-0.107,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.047,-0.114,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.106,-0.235,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.038,-0.11,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.015,-0.081,0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.545,0.364,0.773,-0.043,-0.163,0.058 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.227,0.141,0.313 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.259,0.171,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.275,0.196,0.348 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.817,1.0,0.304,0.206,0.4 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.43,0.581 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.503,0.396,0.601 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.448,0.597 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.21,-0.319,-0.113 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.023,-0.047,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.295,0.136,0.477,-0.032,-0.071,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.09,-0.203,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.023,-0.091,0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.014,-0.033,0.075 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.028,-0.134,0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.238,0.176,0.304 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.27,0.203,0.337 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.227,0.342 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.314,0.236,0.392 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.431,0.592 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.424,0.595 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.451,0.605 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.177,-0.288,-0.097 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,0.005,-0.086,0.104 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.004,-0.104,0.098 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.061,-0.188,0.041 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.005,-0.105,0.107 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.227,0.636,0.041,-0.062,0.14 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.027,-0.058,0.119 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.259,0.173,0.345 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.29,0.204,0.373 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.232,0.377 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.332,0.242,0.422 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.426,0.619 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.435,0.617 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.444,0.634 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.804,-0.414 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.478,-0.238 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.355,-0.523,-0.224 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.431,-0.609,-0.281 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.343,-0.532,-0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.294,-0.456,-0.165 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.313,-0.436,-0.214 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.349,-0.527,-0.21 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.568,0.909,0.042,0.005,0.08 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.727,0.5,0.909,0.061,0.021,0.101 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.591,0.909,0.099,0.047,0.156 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.369,0.266,0.458 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.247,0.481 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.392,0.29,0.477 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.913,-0.462 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.401,-0.556,-0.282 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.414,-0.588,-0.271 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.493,-0.717,-0.319 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.401,-0.618,-0.26 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.35,-0.519,-0.207 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.37,-0.508,-0.254 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.408,-0.596,-0.256 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.091,0.432,-0.043,-0.088,-0.005 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.021,-0.031,0.069 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.705,0.5,0.864,0.06,0.013,0.109 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.342,0.226,0.439 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.329,0.203,0.458 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.365,0.252,0.46 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.692,-0.897,-0.515 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.56,-0.32 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.444,-0.603,-0.308 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.525,-0.703,-0.371 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.617,-0.3 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.379,-0.534,-0.243 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.519,-0.293 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.605,-0.302 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.065,-0.112,-0.022 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.021,-0.075,0.03 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.04,-0.036,0.112 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.328,0.221,0.419 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.315,0.196,0.441 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.352,0.248,0.441 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.763,-1.06,-0.534 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.49,-0.691,-0.338 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.73,-0.33 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.835,-0.401 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.491,-0.761,-0.31 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.183,-0.436,-0.667,-0.26 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.457,-0.645,-0.309 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.498,-0.73,-0.32 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.091,0.409,-0.11,-0.184,-0.05 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.295,0.136,0.5,-0.064,-0.122,-0.013 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.042,-0.126,0.035 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.3,0.152,0.419 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.286,0.145,0.428 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.325,0.178,0.442 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.518,-2.04,-1.064 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.128,-1.496,-0.798 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.148,-1.535,-0.793 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.268,-1.745,-0.83 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.129,-1.528,-0.778 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.051,-1.384,-0.754 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.081,-1.448,-0.758 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.139,-1.625,-0.741 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.585,-0.844,-0.362 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.519,-0.781,-0.293 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.488,-0.722,-0.283 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.428,-0.722,-0.18 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.545,0.364,0.727,-0.02,-0.276,0.204 -Naive,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.036,0.019,0.055 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.469,-2.047,-1.037 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.548,-0.767 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.106,-1.604,-0.771 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.225,-1.732,-0.861 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.088,-1.617,-0.75 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.012,-1.506,-0.657 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.467,-0.735 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.098,-1.611,-0.77 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.926,-0.328 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.49,-0.845,-0.255 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.459,-0.79,-0.244 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.401,-0.748,-0.169 -AutoETS,Naive,0.455,0.273,0.636,0.019,-0.257,0.216 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.054,-0.22,0.246 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.611,-2.152,-1.128 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.207,-1.595,-0.861 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.637,-0.858 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.352,-1.839,-0.901 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.208,-1.624,-0.841 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.127,-1.479,-0.81 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.158,-1.532,-0.822 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.218,-1.736,-0.799 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.644,-0.912,-0.408 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.575,-0.851,-0.337 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.543,-0.788,-0.33 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.481,-0.792,-0.216 -Drift,Naive,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.037,-0.058,-0.02 -Drift,AutoETS,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.057,-0.326,0.181 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 9e7619a74e79be44efcf2559bee57b79c0a236a8..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.155,0.076,0.23 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.161,0.079,0.235 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.681,0.955,0.116,0.064,0.166 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.167,0.09,0.247 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.125,0.266 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.118,0.257 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.221,0.162,0.292 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.401,0.535 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.431,0.55 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.483,0.612 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.56,0.676 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.638,0.877 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.761,0.708,0.807 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.713,0.813 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.184,-0.299,-0.082 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.006,-0.026,0.038 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.047,-0.184,0.054 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.014,-0.036,0.044 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.05,0.008,0.102 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.04,0.019,0.062 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.078,-0.015,0.15 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.298,0.444 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.331,0.468 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.393,0.537 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.47,0.622 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.579,0.857 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.643,0.777 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.651,0.782 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.192,-0.308,-0.086 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.007,-0.039,0.025 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.054,-0.192,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.007,-0.035,0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.044,-0.001,0.096 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.568,0.909,0.034,-0.006,0.07 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.072,-0.029,0.158 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.284,0.448 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.316,0.471 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.463,0.379,0.539 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.457,0.627 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.737,0.575,0.858 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.715,0.64,0.775 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.649,0.783 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.319,-0.131,-0.2,-0.069 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.045,-0.058,0.156 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.051,-0.052,0.161 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.058,-0.055,0.174 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.092,-0.008,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.083,-0.009,0.179 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.119,0.017,0.225 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.399,0.318,0.479 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.358,0.495 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.421,0.56 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.492,0.643 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.591,0.864 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.668,0.784 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.737,0.675,0.791 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.2,-0.328,-0.099 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.014,-0.046,0.035 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.007,-0.041,0.033 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.061,-0.211,0.053 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.037,-0.012,0.093 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.027,-0.014,0.083 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.065,-0.035,0.153 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.279,0.448 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.313,0.472 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.371,0.544 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.455,0.623 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.736,0.568,0.859 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.636,0.773 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.644,0.779 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.246,-0.363,-0.143 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.053,-0.114,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.046,-0.106,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.102,-0.235,0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.038,-0.103,0.012 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,-0.01,-0.07,0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.03,-0.083,0.123 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.338,0.256,0.419 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.369,0.287,0.445 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.439,0.356,0.522 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.526,0.446,0.602 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.726,0.541,0.853 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.702,0.636,0.761 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.71,0.644,0.769 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.346,-0.133 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.042,-0.066,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.091,0.432,-0.035,-0.076,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.091,-0.218,0.009 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.028,-0.09,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,0.01,-0.033,0.065 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.04,-0.054,0.117 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.271,0.422 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.307,0.444 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.371,0.518 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.449,0.604 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.556,0.852 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.63,0.767 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.64,0.774 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.284,-0.412,-0.193 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.085,-0.177,0.014 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.078,-0.187,0.028 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.135,-0.29,-0.017 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.07,-0.181,0.034 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.031,-0.141,0.076 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.041,-0.133,0.051 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.318,0.235,0.4 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.349,0.276,0.422 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.422,0.34,0.501 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.435,0.59 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.722,0.535,0.847 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.693,0.608,0.759 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.701,0.618,0.766 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.883,-1.149,-0.669 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.8,-0.425 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.58,-0.811,-0.396 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.665,-0.918,-0.467 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.811,-0.387 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.511,-0.72,-0.345 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.526,-0.73,-0.371 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.466,-0.666,-0.308 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.659,0.455,0.819,0.046,0.011,0.086 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.977,0.932,1.0,0.152,0.113,0.193 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.284,0.193,0.375 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.955,0.818,1.0,0.6,0.32,0.795 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.459,0.621 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.472,0.633 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.974,-1.221,-0.757 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.667,-0.879,-0.494 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.89,-0.461 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-0.982,-0.557 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-0.894,-0.456 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.584,-0.802,-0.402 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.798,-0.442 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.537,-0.731,-0.381 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.341,0.181,0.545,-0.049,-0.094,-0.012 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.568,0.909,0.111,0.052,0.166 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.249,0.164,0.334 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.955,0.818,1.0,0.586,0.296,0.789 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.432,0.605 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.446,0.616 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.574,-0.932 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.161,-0.647 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.863,-1.171,-0.61 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.963,-1.27,-0.726 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.193,-0.59 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.781,-1.092,-0.552 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.8,-1.075,-0.59 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.729,-1.003,-0.515 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.023,0.0,0.068,-0.179,-0.239,-0.127 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.091,0.432,-0.125,-0.199,-0.055 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.155,0.024,0.273 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.536,0.196,0.768 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.469,0.348,0.562 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.484,0.361,0.575 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.628,-2.087,-1.274 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.647,-0.887 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.206,-1.679,-0.841 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.324,-1.798,-0.967 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.19,-1.652,-0.835 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.109,-1.514,-0.805 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.131,-1.525,-0.815 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.047,-1.438,-0.769 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.396,-0.6,-0.239 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.331,-0.502,-0.196 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.184,-0.375,-0.025 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.463,0.076,0.728 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.372,0.238,0.472 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.389,0.258,0.487 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.51,-7.126,-1.763 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.827,-5.973,-1.374 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.799,-6.046,-1.351 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.057,-6.34,-1.448 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.782,-6.109,-1.315 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.652,-5.817,-1.18 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.698,-5.771,-1.254 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.592,-5.554,-1.151 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.045,0.0,0.182,-1.497,-3.867,-0.47 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.182,-1.416,-3.74,-0.42 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.091,0.455,-1.155,-3.309,-0.244 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.863,-2.675,-0.082 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.636,0.453,0.818,-0.237,-1.691,0.327 -AutoETS,Drift,0.818,0.636,0.955,-0.212,-1.644,0.34 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.184,-4.178,-2.423 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.534,-3.481,-1.8 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.511,-3.442,-1.777 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.699,-3.63,-2.013 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.485,-3.404,-1.748 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.357,-3.188,-1.75 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.392,-3.295,-1.702 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.258,-3.142,-1.552 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.222,-1.635,-0.847 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.119,-1.531,-0.761 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.885,-1.283,-0.533 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.592,-0.894,-0.312 -Naive,AutoETS,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.192,-0.485,0.628 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.016,0.038 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.298,-4.338,-2.49 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.631,-3.597,-1.865 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.607,-3.598,-1.847 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.801,-3.79,-2.081 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.581,-3.531,-1.812 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.449,-3.324,-1.805 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.485,-3.427,-1.775 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.347,-3.282,-1.615 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.283,-1.725,-0.895 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.177,-1.607,-0.806 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.936,-1.355,-0.565 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.635,-0.95,-0.348 -Drift,AutoETS,0.182,0.045,0.364,0.175,-0.515,0.622 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.027,-0.039,-0.017 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 7af69288d170dfcd64c28fbb5efcd25ca646cbd8..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.095,0.037,0.145 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.238 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.157,0.08,0.228 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.182,0.113,0.247 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.18,0.099,0.262 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.177,0.11,0.243 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.18,0.113,0.248 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.31,0.486 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.363,0.551 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.358,0.517 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.484,0.381,0.579 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.583,0.476,0.661 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.634,0.529,0.73 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.598,0.496,0.675 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.105,-0.17,-0.039 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.079,-0.011,0.168 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.069,-0.014,0.155 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.096,0.019,0.171 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.094,-0.006,0.199 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.091,0.013,0.172 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.094,-0.014,0.184 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.246,0.428 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.408,0.307,0.497 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.291,0.46 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.327,0.53 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.437,0.619 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.487,0.692 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.455,0.635 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.199,-0.312,-0.097 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.086,-0.202,0.011 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.011,-0.05,0.023 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.019,-0.004,0.039 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.017,-0.042,0.058 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.013,-0.016,0.042 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.017,-0.108,0.123 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.282,0.193,0.37 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.358,0.255,0.456 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.245,0.406 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.382,0.279,0.484 -TiRex,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.5,0.401,0.587 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.561,0.429,0.669 -TiRex,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.518,0.418,0.604 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.186,-0.295,-0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.074,-0.183,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.011,-0.023,0.047 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.029,-0.011,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.659,0.027,-0.021,0.073 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.341,0.705,0.024,-0.007,0.059 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.028,-0.096,0.132 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.29,0.194,0.39 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.365,0.258,0.465 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.246,0.421 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.28,0.499 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.506,0.404,0.594 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.565,0.443,0.674 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.523,0.423,0.609 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.222,-0.328,-0.127 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.106,-0.206,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.019,-0.041,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.03,-0.074,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.66,-0.002,-0.067,0.049 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.006,-0.036,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.002,-0.122,0.099 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.269,0.182,0.355 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.346,0.24,0.446 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.236,0.392 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.37,0.264,0.475 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.491,0.391,0.578 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.552,0.426,0.662 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.509,0.409,0.595 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.219,-0.354,-0.11 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.104,-0.249,0.006 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.017,-0.062,0.04 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.523,0.341,0.705,-0.028,-0.079,0.021 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.34,0.705,0.002,-0.051,0.063 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,-0.003,-0.05,0.044 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.0,-0.139,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.27,0.176,0.374 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.347,0.238,0.456 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.316,0.229,0.403 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.371,0.259,0.488 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.492,0.389,0.58 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.553,0.411,0.67 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.51,0.406,0.597 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.215,-0.32,-0.123 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.1,-0.207,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.013,-0.043,0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.659,-0.025,-0.062,0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.005,-0.022,0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,0.003,-0.046,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.004,-0.123,0.11 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.273,0.185,0.365 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.349,0.245,0.453 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.237,0.403 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.373,0.266,0.484 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.493,0.391,0.584 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.555,0.43,0.666 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.512,0.409,0.6 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.22,-0.33,-0.127 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.104,-0.226,0.014 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.017,-0.14,0.098 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.028,-0.152,0.088 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.002,-0.109,0.109 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.0,-0.137,0.122 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.004,-0.124,0.11 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.27,0.157,0.38 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.347,0.251,0.438 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.316,0.213,0.415 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.371,0.263,0.473 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.492,0.358,0.604 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.553,0.427,0.666 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.51,0.378,0.619 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.945,-0.449 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.749,-0.326 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.394,-0.587,-0.239 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.409,-0.639,-0.24 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.368,-0.55,-0.223 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.371,-0.596,-0.214 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.375,-0.575,-0.227 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.37,-0.614,-0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.795,0.614,0.955,0.105,0.036,0.203 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.727,0.544,0.909,0.062,0.019,0.105 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.636,0.955,0.138,0.07,0.222 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.303,0.203,0.393 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.388,0.219,0.54 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.328,0.229,0.417 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.867,-1.229,-0.57 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.69,-0.989,-0.443 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.557,-0.838,-0.343 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.574,-0.869,-0.347 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.528,-0.804,-0.316 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.531,-0.838,-0.312 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.537,-0.827,-0.324 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.531,-0.778,-0.336 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.045,0.386,-0.117,-0.254,-0.037 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.409,0.182,0.592,-0.048,-0.193,0.046 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.545,0.909,0.037,-0.013,0.084 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.222,0.036,0.352 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.316,0.103,0.497 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.25,0.065,0.38 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.782,-1.071,-0.558 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.85,-0.411 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.486,-0.683,-0.324 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.728,-0.327 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.645,-0.309 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.461,-0.676,-0.297 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.675,-0.31 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.461,-0.709,-0.271 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.273,0.091,0.456,-0.066,-0.117,-0.019 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.591,0.408,0.818,0.046,-0.049,0.162 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.081,-0.008,0.185 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.257,0.148,0.355 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.347,0.171,0.503 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.284,0.177,0.38 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.94,-1.374,-0.616 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.756,-1.125,-0.485 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.617,-0.937,-0.386 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.635,-0.996,-0.389 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.587,-0.905,-0.359 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.591,-0.954,-0.349 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.596,-0.938,-0.363 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.59,-0.896,-0.357 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.045,0.364,-0.16,-0.285,-0.075 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.091,0.455,-0.039,-0.092,0.013 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.088,-0.227,0.008 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.191,0.008,0.328 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.289,0.066,0.473 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.221,0.038,0.355 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.399,-1.946,-0.908 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.171,-1.624,-0.777 -Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.0,-1.421,-0.669 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.022,-1.461,-0.678 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.963,-1.368,-0.643 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.967,-1.38,-0.637 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.974,-1.401,-0.642 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.967,-1.522,-0.557 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.435,-0.649,-0.254 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.285,-0.543,-0.037 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.346,-0.549,-0.174 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.237,-0.487,-0.008 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.545,0.363,0.727,0.121,-0.128,0.347 -Naive,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.036,0.02,0.055 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.729,-2.697,-1.123 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.47,-2.244,-0.949 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.276,-2.025,-0.753 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.301,-2.071,-0.797 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.233,-1.956,-0.742 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.238,-2.026,-0.699 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.246,-1.995,-0.754 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.237,-1.993,-0.744 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.633,-1.173,-0.281 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.462,-0.986,-0.115 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.531,-1.013,-0.206 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.407,-0.899,-0.071 -AutoETS,Naive,0.455,0.273,0.637,-0.138,-0.532,0.113 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.591,0.364,0.774,-0.097,-0.461,0.145 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.488,-2.076,-0.985 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.252,-1.74,-0.834 -Drift,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.075,-1.525,-0.719 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.098,-1.556,-0.734 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.036,-1.468,-0.692 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.041,-1.478,-0.685 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.048,-1.501,-0.693 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.04,-1.623,-0.608 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.489,-0.716,-0.298 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.333,-0.614,-0.069 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.396,-0.613,-0.215 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.283,-0.551,-0.039 -Drift,Naive,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.037,-0.058,-0.02 -Drift,AutoETS,0.409,0.226,0.636,0.088,-0.17,0.316 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 563b8ed78709a16ad21ec8f52208e1d729fd32bb..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.166,0.087,0.238 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.166,0.089,0.237 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.113,0.056,0.166 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.189,0.107,0.27 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.127,0.256 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.134,0.264 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.25,0.186,0.313 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.439,0.59 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.536,0.462,0.603 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.597,0.518,0.669 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.58,0.71 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.813,0.696,0.893 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.721,0.809 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.775,0.727,0.815 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.199,-0.312,-0.095 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.0,-0.041,0.034 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.064,-0.187,0.043 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.027,-0.023,0.065 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.032,-0.001,0.06 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.041,0.019,0.061 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.101,-0.006,0.194 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.332,0.508 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.444,0.353,0.531 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.424,0.603 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.579,0.488,0.66 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.629,0.88 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.654,0.778 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.662,0.785 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.2,-0.31,-0.098 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.0,-0.035,0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.065,-0.186,0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.34,0.727,0.027,-0.022,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.659,0.477,0.818,0.031,0.0,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.705,0.523,0.886,0.041,-0.001,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.1,-0.019,0.195 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.325,0.514 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.345,0.536 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.416,0.61 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.579,0.484,0.664 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.626,0.879 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.655,0.78 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.664,0.786 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.127,-0.199,-0.06 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.06,-0.045,0.158 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.061,-0.035,0.157 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.086,-0.028,0.2 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.408,0.818,0.09,0.007,0.178 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.099,0.012,0.183 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.155,0.052,0.247 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.458,0.364,0.539 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.477,0.39,0.552 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.458,0.624 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.522,0.676 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.793,0.665,0.884 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.686,0.787 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.747,0.693,0.792 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.233,-0.369,-0.12 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.028,-0.07,0.022 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.273,0.66,-0.028,-0.078,0.021 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.094,-0.251,0.027 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.004,-0.046,0.053 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.014,-0.037,0.071 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.075,-0.049,0.183 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.407,0.308,0.503 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.428,0.328,0.525 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.399,0.603 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.467,0.656 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.771,0.618,0.876 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.715,0.641,0.772 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.723,0.651,0.779 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.344,-0.145 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.033,-0.064,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.341,0.182,0.523,-0.032,-0.066,-0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.182,0.592,-0.099,-0.217,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.005,-0.056,0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.01,-0.019,0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.071,-0.042,0.169 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.313,0.494 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.333,0.516 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.404,0.593 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.476,0.649 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.771,0.615,0.876 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.646,0.768 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.656,0.775 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.358,-0.155 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.043,-0.066,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.295,0.114,0.477,-0.042,-0.087,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.11,-0.224,-0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.014,-0.076,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.01,-0.042,0.019 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.062,-0.043,0.153 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.306,0.484 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.42,0.325,0.51 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.401,0.584 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.472,0.645 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.612,0.876 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.711,0.643,0.766 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.719,0.65,0.774 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.333,-0.455,-0.229 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.112,-0.241,0.006 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.111,-0.243,0.018 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.183,-0.328,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.081,-0.225,0.047 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.077,-0.204,0.041 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.066,-0.181,0.041 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.358,0.266,0.443 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.382,0.29,0.462 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.462,0.369,0.545 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.445,0.608 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.593,0.869 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.617,0.752 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.627,0.759 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.077,-1.437,-0.782 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.732,-1.032,-0.496 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.732,-1.059,-0.482 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.844,-1.171,-0.573 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.685,-1.011,-0.446 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.677,-0.975,-0.455 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.937,-0.441 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.558,-0.796,-0.363 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.614,0.409,0.818,0.037,-0.004,0.081 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.977,0.932,1.0,0.162,0.119,0.205 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.271,0.178,0.367 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.628,0.353,0.808 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.52,0.418,0.593 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.533,0.43,0.607 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.156,-1.518,-0.859 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.798,-1.131,-0.546 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.797,-1.156,-0.526 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.913,-1.234,-0.639 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.749,-1.105,-0.488 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-1.067,-0.499 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.724,-1.04,-0.482 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.617,-0.859,-0.409 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.386,0.182,0.591,-0.038,-0.088,0.004 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.636,0.955,0.131,0.076,0.182 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.244,0.157,0.337 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.955,0.818,1.0,0.621,0.344,0.806 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.411,0.575 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.423,0.589 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.48,-2.023,-1.074 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.068,-1.516,-0.736 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.067,-1.562,-0.712 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.201,-1.657,-0.845 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.012,-1.517,-0.665 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.456,-0.678 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.984,-1.407,-0.67 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.86,-1.199,-0.585 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.023,0.0,0.068,-0.194,-0.258,-0.135 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.045,0.364,-0.15,-0.223,-0.082 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.13,0.003,0.249 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.565,0.229,0.782 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.426,0.302,0.517 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.442,0.315,0.534 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.851,-2.443,-1.382 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.377,-1.943,-0.953 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.376,-1.975,-0.938 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.53,-2.088,-1.092 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.312,-1.907,-0.876 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.302,-1.85,-0.907 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.28,-1.816,-0.895 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.138,-1.551,-0.801 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.372,-0.58,-0.216 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.322,-0.507,-0.187 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.149,-0.331,-0.003 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.513,0.154,0.751 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.341,0.203,0.442 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.359,0.225,0.46 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.341,-8.33,-2.287 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.481,-7.326,-1.692 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.473,-7.238,-1.675 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.838,-7.63,-1.983 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-3.371,-7.047,-1.615 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.359,-7.036,-1.597 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.32,-7.05,-1.576 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.117,-6.616,-1.457 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.687,-4.221,-0.546 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.182,-1.637,-4.154,-0.525 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.091,0.455,-1.297,-3.597,-0.296 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.409,0.227,0.636,-1.051,-3.024,-0.182 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.426,-2.047,0.201 -AutoETS,Drift,0.727,0.545,0.909,-0.396,-1.976,0.224 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.325,-4.244,-2.585 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.606,-3.512,-1.888 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.605,-3.539,-1.902 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.838,-3.69,-2.18 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-2.508,-3.387,-1.786 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.492,-3.309,-1.826 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.459,-3.282,-1.803 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.244,-3.03,-1.61 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.082,-1.456,-0.718 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.006,-1.354,-0.699 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.744,-1.072,-0.432 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.517,-0.793,-0.255 -Naive,AutoETS,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.299,-0.251,0.672 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.017,0.038 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.445,-4.405,-2.661 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.707,-3.646,-1.958 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.705,-3.677,-1.978 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.945,-3.816,-2.253 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-2.606,-3.534,-1.862 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.59,-3.437,-1.903 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.555,-3.429,-1.858 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.334,-3.151,-1.678 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.14,-1.548,-0.753 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.431,-0.732 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.792,-1.144,-0.46 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.559,-0.851,-0.29 -Drift,AutoETS,0.273,0.091,0.455,0.284,-0.288,0.664 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.028,-0.04,-0.017 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 896c1953a14b52112fc5188aec02f4b7de6d1e6c..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Stat. Ensemble,84.87394957983193,31.60425731862634,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.41176470588235,30.532536224691174,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.94957983193277,29.907299796780073,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,68.90756302521008,29.300272942864037,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,59.243697478991585,27.04334067358627,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoARIMA,53.781512605042,26.95504973130829,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,50.84033613445379,24.962106226025238,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.0,23.870081464197433,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,47.47899159663866,22.54132876098356,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 -Drift,45.378151260504204,14.172808093870426,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,40.54621848739495,23.41596396885234,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,39.285714285714285,21.200363608688978,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -Sundial-Base,23.529411764705873,14.82873276930089,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.168067226890756,4.657015263286168,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.605042016806726,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 0614712ed0bc83215d17c37d25276e9d4874ead3..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.65546218487397,32.50619250795804,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,86.1344537815126,31.864956176489333,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,75.63025210084032,30.619627501999513,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,62.60504201680671,27.45388712084713,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,62.18487394957981,23.938814370075377,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,56.30252100840336,25.30688806869693,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,55.46218487394958,25.26055614118038,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.470588235294116,25.546718740107966,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.0,25.353548217105605,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,43.487394957983184,22.311614614421458,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoTheta,42.85714285714285,22.773093517189103,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Drift,31.092436974789923,7.532134668823886,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,17.64705882352941,9.65596394521091,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.445378151260504,-2.479358196357717,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.025210084033615,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 7b00215fa6623e9da0823f7d46afc2d5be2eee1d..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Stat. Ensemble,73.52941176470587,31.77346976331744,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.52941176470587,30.081050594899338,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,71.42857142857143,31.178074231641617,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.64705882352942,28.807732865723988,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.344537815126046,28.918186440902517,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,61.344537815126046,28.748363751928274,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.14285714285714,24.73773635509896,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.4201680672269,28.81554946179643,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,46.42857142857142,21.77797102351108,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,46.00840336134453,19.902282110003313,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoTheta,40.7563025210084,23.951462461638883,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Drift,38.23529411764706,12.008595721613913,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Naive,25.630252100840334,4.816376607059247,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,21.008403361344538,11.581561125483809,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.546218487394956,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 8e48cf7025eb964c4f05e81e4966a6a24d0d1f68..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,80.67226890756302,34.840937215984916,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.83193277310924,35.31685135274234,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.00840336134455,33.16119954820973,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.80672268907563,33.27760916396566,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,65.12605042016808,31.993310800171226,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,63.025210084033624,29.78720066477729,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,56.722689075630264,30.176887545915974,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.83193277310924,27.870116986324867,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.890756302521,25.33039827401239,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoARIMA,47.47899159663865,27.948988113145624,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,37.81512605042017,22.68721175922429,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Drift,24.78991596638655,4.105439058231363,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,20.168067226890756,11.21483343362134,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.126050420168067,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.705882352941174,-4.030261224151066,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index fcd8b3c62a01ecfa7fea823edf88eba031f4e8fc..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.015,-0.023,0.058 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.024,-0.009,0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.033,0.013,0.053 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.02,0.109 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.064,0.031,0.113 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.089,0.057,0.118 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.102,0.05,0.15 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.117,0.063,0.18 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.083,0.363 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.107,0.064,0.147 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.132,0.084,0.175 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.197,0.139,0.26 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.283,0.17,0.419 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.316,0.229,0.413 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.016,-0.062,0.023 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.009,-0.022,0.037 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.017,-0.009,0.042 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,0.01,0.084 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.049,-0.011,0.112 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.074,0.014,0.122 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.088,0.015,0.151 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.763,1.0,0.103,0.044,0.169 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.191,0.047,0.356 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.054,0.135 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.064,0.171 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.14,0.229 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.157,0.409 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.224,0.397 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.025,-0.064,0.009 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.009,-0.038,0.022 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.015,0.032 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.039,0.007,0.081 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.04,-0.017,0.107 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.066,0.011,0.111 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.079,0.016,0.137 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.095,0.035,0.159 -TiRex,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.183,0.05,0.346 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.048,0.123 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.11,0.06,0.164 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.177,0.123,0.234 -TiRex,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.265,0.146,0.405 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.202,0.402 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.034,-0.057,-0.013 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.018,-0.043,0.009 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.009,-0.033,0.015 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.031,-0.008,0.074 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.032,-0.015,0.092 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.058,0.013,0.096 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.071,0.011,0.13 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.087,0.03,0.153 -AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.176,0.045,0.346 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.077,0.039,0.114 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.103,0.052,0.148 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.17,0.116,0.226 -AutoETS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.258,0.141,0.394 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.204,0.392 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.067,-0.122,-0.021 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.05,-0.091,-0.01 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.041,-0.088,-0.007 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.032,-0.08,0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.001,-0.051,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.028,-0.04,0.082 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.676,0.042,-0.021,0.105 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.058,-0.01,0.13 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.15,-0.005,0.332 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.047,0.009,0.085 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.074,0.016,0.131 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.143,0.095,0.2 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.235,0.11,0.382 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.27,0.182,0.363 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.068,-0.128,-0.032 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.051,-0.126,0.011 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.042,-0.12,0.016 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.033,-0.101,0.015 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.001,-0.045,0.049 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.027,-0.031,0.078 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.041,-0.016,0.093 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.017,0.131 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.149,0.004,0.327 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.046,-0.003,0.093 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.073,0.008,0.132 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.142,0.065,0.22 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.234,0.106,0.381 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.184,0.362 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.097,-0.134,-0.06 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.08,-0.139,-0.014 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.071,-0.125,-0.011 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.061,-0.106,-0.013 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.029,-0.09,0.038 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.027,-0.085,0.03 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.014,-0.047,0.067 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.03,0.098 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.126,0.009,0.287 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.02,-0.036,0.072 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,-0.004,0.093 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.119,0.053,0.188 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.213,0.105,0.343 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.25,0.156,0.35 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.113,-0.177,-0.052 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.096,-0.177,-0.015 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.086,-0.159,-0.017 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.077,-0.15,-0.011 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.324,0.765,-0.043,-0.117,0.021 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.042,-0.102,0.016 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.015,-0.072,0.045 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.017,-0.078,0.122 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.113,-0.022,0.272 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.006,-0.053,0.066 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.034,-0.001,0.074 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.106,0.015,0.205 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.202,0.083,0.337 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.239,0.127,0.357 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.133,-0.219,-0.067 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.237,-0.115,-0.203,-0.046 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.105,-0.189,-0.037 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.096,-0.181,-0.031 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.062,-0.149,0.01 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.06,-0.151,0.017 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.108,0.029 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.017,-0.139,0.072 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.098,-0.068,0.274 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.011,-0.112,0.063 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.017,-0.098,0.096 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.023,0.155 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.188,0.042,0.333 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.225,0.131,0.323 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.255,-0.571,-0.09 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.236,-0.554,-0.05 -Drift,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.224,-0.528,-0.053 -Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.214,-0.529,-0.047 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.176,-0.496,0.005 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.175,-0.485,-0.004 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.144,-0.403,-0.009 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.127,-0.373,0.021 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.108,-0.378,0.064 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.121,-0.412,0.04 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.089,-0.335,0.061 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.008,-0.301,0.168 -Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.1,0.022,0.18 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.142,-0.129,0.318 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.12,-0.172,-0.068 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.102,-0.156,-0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.093,-0.141,-0.051 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.083,-0.129,-0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.05,-0.093,-0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.048,-0.103,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.021,-0.077,0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.206,0.647,-0.006,-0.07,0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.011,-0.068,0.101 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.108,-0.042,0.292 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.382,0.176,0.588,0.028,-0.011,0.071 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,0.039,0.16 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.197,0.072,0.344 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.234,0.137,0.333 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.152,-0.212,-0.091 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.206,-0.068 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.124,-0.196,-0.064 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.115,-0.174,-0.055 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.08,-0.151,-0.016 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.079,-0.152,-0.008 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.05,-0.103,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.035,-0.08,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.017,-0.106,0.089 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.082,-0.065,0.251 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.618,0.412,0.824,-0.029,-0.077,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.075,0.002,0.145 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.174,0.063,0.305 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.212,0.107,0.323 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.245,-0.352,-0.161 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.226,-0.297,-0.163 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.215,-0.305,-0.14 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.205,-0.291,-0.131 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.167,-0.25,-0.105 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.166,-0.282,-0.07 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.135,-0.232,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.119,-0.258,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.183,-0.023 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.008,-0.202,0.231 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.112,-0.19,-0.041 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.081,-0.17,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.107,-0.039,0.286 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.148,0.059,0.245 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.394,-0.722,-0.204 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.693,-0.187 -Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.36,-0.682,-0.171 -Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.349,-0.649,-0.164 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.307,-0.618,-0.124 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.305,-0.614,-0.118 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.271,-0.522,-0.118 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.252,-0.509,-0.09 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.231,-0.498,-0.044 -Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.111,-0.219,-0.023 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.245,-0.524,-0.077 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.21,-0.44,-0.067 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.119,-0.401,0.038 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.047,-0.198,0.201 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.462,-0.703,-0.297 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.659,-0.288 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.672,-0.253 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.645,-0.256 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.371,-0.571,-0.222 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.566,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.333,-0.538,-0.184 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.314,-0.555,-0.145 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.291,-0.476,-0.15 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.165,-0.467,0.114 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.306,-0.5,-0.158 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.269,-0.477,-0.12 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.174,-0.324,-0.063 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.049,-0.251,0.166 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 0767415a55a4e445c962ba03d9cce010f6e17aa2..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.018,0.04 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.027,-0.014,0.065 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.07,0.036,0.102 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.113,0.036,0.23 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.096,0.028,0.159 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.763,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.149 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.051,0.143 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.096,0.034,0.161 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.131,0.076,0.187 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.126,0.071,0.172 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.27,0.122,0.415 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.207,0.298 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.341,0.235,0.459 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.249,0.408 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.01,-0.042,0.018 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.018,-0.02,0.052 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.061,0.026,0.097 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.104,0.026,0.221 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.088,0.031,0.141 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.088,0.04,0.138 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.047,0.123 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.087,0.031,0.154 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.123,0.074,0.174 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.118,0.069,0.161 -TiRex,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.263,0.132,0.401 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.193,0.298 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.234,0.447 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.319,0.231,0.411 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.028,-0.07,0.014 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.018,-0.055,0.02 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.044,0.004,0.088 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.088,0.015,0.204 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.071,0.018,0.123 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.072,0.031,0.118 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.068,0.028,0.108 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.037,0.121 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.107,0.058,0.153 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.102,0.07,0.134 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.25,0.118,0.4 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.176,0.291 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.219,0.449 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.225,0.392 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.075,-0.114,-0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.065,-0.107,-0.027 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.046,-0.096,-0.004 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.046,-0.046,0.181 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.676,0.029,-0.036,0.091 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.029,-0.028,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.026,-0.013,0.066 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.028,-0.029,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.066,0.01,0.122 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.061,0.0,0.111 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.215,0.056,0.38 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.197,0.153,0.247 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.292,0.176,0.424 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.275,0.193,0.356 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.127,-0.299,-0.038 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.116,-0.284,-0.026 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.096,-0.256,-0.016 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.048,-0.22,0.044 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.018,-0.214,0.088 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.018,-0.199,0.087 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.022,-0.206,0.069 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.019,-0.198,0.09 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.021,-0.153,0.117 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.015,-0.155,0.106 -AutoETS,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.177,-0.054,0.366 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.158,0.016,0.246 -AutoETS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.258,0.073,0.414 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.239,0.062,0.359 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.107,-0.189,-0.028 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.096,-0.164,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.077,-0.141,-0.018 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.324,0.765,-0.03,-0.101,0.035 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.018,-0.097,0.176 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.001,-0.082,0.091 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.735,-0.003,-0.058,0.054 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.063,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.039,0.004,0.077 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.033,-0.026,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.192,0.063,0.332 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.173,0.092,0.263 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.271,0.173,0.387 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.253,0.145,0.364 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.237,-0.107,-0.175,-0.052 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.097,-0.16,-0.042 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.077,-0.134,-0.032 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.03,-0.095,0.028 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.017,-0.095,0.166 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.001,-0.1,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.082,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.07,0.066 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.038,-0.052,0.104 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.032,-0.019,0.075 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.192,0.04,0.354 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.173,0.118,0.227 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.271,0.152,0.396 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.171,0.336 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.166,-0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.093,-0.14,-0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.073,-0.121,-0.029 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.026,-0.071,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.021,-0.074,0.171 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.265,0.706,0.003,-0.057,0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.061,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.003,-0.054,0.058 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.559,0.353,0.765,0.042,0.006,0.081 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.036,-0.02,0.092 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.195,0.05,0.353 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.176,0.114,0.235 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.273,0.173,0.401 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.255,0.166,0.347 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.106,-0.192,-0.035 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.096,-0.182,-0.032 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.138,-0.038 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.029,-0.086,0.028 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.019,-0.099,0.165 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.065,0.059 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.07,0.066 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.003,-0.061,0.051 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.039,-0.039,0.105 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.033,-0.028,0.089 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.193,0.041,0.366 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.174,0.091,0.254 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.272,0.149,0.408 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.174,0.333 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.151,-0.23,-0.082 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.14,-0.211,-0.08 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.12,-0.181,-0.062 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.071,-0.14,-0.01 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.021,-0.133,0.133 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.04,-0.083,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.116,0.049 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.441,0.235,0.647,-0.043,-0.088,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.041,-0.118,0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.006,-0.057,0.049 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.16,0.013,0.314 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.14,0.073,0.208 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.242,0.146,0.359 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.223,0.125,0.328 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.144,-0.208,-0.076 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.133,-0.193,-0.074 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.113,-0.155,-0.075 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.065,-0.125,-0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.015,-0.118,0.134 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.034,-0.105,0.025 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.033,-0.081,0.019 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.037,-0.101,0.019 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.035,-0.098,0.027 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.006,-0.052,0.054 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.165,0.024,0.317 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.145,0.082,0.211 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.148,0.371 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.228,0.148,0.317 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.37,-0.711,-0.139 -Drift,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.357,-0.671,-0.152 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.333,-0.665,-0.134 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.275,-0.613,-0.059 -Drift,AutoETS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.216,-0.578,0.052 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.238,-0.497,-0.067 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.237,-0.547,-0.042 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.242,-0.546,-0.053 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.239,-0.577,-0.043 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.19,-0.458,-0.013 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.197,-0.465,-0.024 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.024,-0.32,0.166 -Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.098,0.021,0.176 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.075,-0.217,0.272 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.424,-0.261 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.426,-0.24 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.411,-0.214 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.245,-0.328,-0.181 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.188,-0.327,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.21,-0.357,-0.102 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.209,-0.293,-0.134 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.213,-0.307,-0.129 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.21,-0.341,-0.1 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.163,-0.262,-0.079 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.17,-0.268,-0.09 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.023,-0.198,0.242 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.118,-0.026,0.284 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.097,-0.0,0.199 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.518,-0.849,-0.307 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.808,-0.305 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.477,-0.814,-0.281 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.413,-0.737,-0.214 -Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.347,-0.706,-0.079 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.372,-0.632,-0.209 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.371,-0.656,-0.179 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.376,-0.669,-0.209 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.373,-0.688,-0.175 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.319,-0.559,-0.171 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.589,-0.174 -Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.108,-0.214,-0.022 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.134,-0.396,0.025 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.794,-0.025,-0.289,0.149 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.689,-0.331 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.468,-0.697,-0.301 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.441,-0.645,-0.29 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.378,-0.553,-0.239 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.315,-0.56,-0.066 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.339,-0.573,-0.17 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.338,-0.506,-0.207 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.343,-0.531,-0.199 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.5,-0.211 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.287,-0.488,-0.143 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.295,-0.464,-0.174 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.081,-0.374,0.178 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.107,-0.248,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.412,0.206,0.647,0.024,-0.175,0.224 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index bfb56577d9ad1c587acf7f6cf2eecbdcd9ff5b1a..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.025,-0.112,0.041 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.016,-0.075,0.03 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.018,-0.018,0.05 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.016,-0.101,0.105 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.038,0.072 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.071,0.016,0.12 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.018,-0.076,0.095 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.106,0.053,0.159 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.127,0.058,0.195 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.081,-0.052,0.175 -TiRex,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.205,0.015,0.38 -TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.099,0.427 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.209,0.136,0.275 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.301,0.182,0.409 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.024,-0.042,0.101 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.009,-0.05,0.086 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.042,-0.027,0.126 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.04,-0.018,0.102 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.042,0.01,0.084 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.093,0.016,0.162 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.042,0.002,0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.128,0.047,0.207 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.148,0.066,0.23 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.103,0.036,0.164 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.225,0.074,0.398 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.283,0.133,0.437 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.145,0.31 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.224,0.401 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.016,-0.031,0.069 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.009,-0.095,0.047 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.033,-0.017,0.094 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.032,-0.07,0.112 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.011,0.074 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.002,0.159 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.033,-0.056,0.101 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.12,0.04,0.2 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.141,0.054,0.225 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.095,-0.037,0.184 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.218,0.025,0.397 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.277,0.123,0.428 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.148,0.287 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.312,0.203,0.41 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.018,-0.052,0.018 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.043,-0.145,0.026 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.034,-0.104,0.017 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.134,0.098 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.066,0.058 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.054,-0.015,0.12 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,-0.0,-0.106,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.09,0.032,0.151 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.111,0.034,0.186 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.064,-0.08,0.169 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.191,-0.023,0.382 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.252,0.061,0.423 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.131,0.257 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.288,0.174,0.389 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.017,-0.117,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.042,-0.113,0.018 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.033,-0.126,0.065 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.108,0.118 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.091,0.08 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.056,-0.064,0.153 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.079,0.066 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.091,-0.037,0.205 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.113,-0.016,0.222 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.065,-0.011,0.131 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.192,0.03,0.374 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.253,0.103,0.41 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.196,0.1,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.188,0.371 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.019,-0.078,0.036 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.044,-0.092,-0.01 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.08,0.011 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.062,0.062 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.087,0.083 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.053,-0.018,0.117 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.079,0.056 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.089,0.022,0.15 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.11,0.04,0.175 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,-0.033,0.131 -AutoETS,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.19,0.012,0.377 -AutoETS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.251,0.094,0.41 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.194,0.124,0.256 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.198,0.376 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.076,-0.136,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.103,-0.193,-0.017 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.189,-0.002 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.057,-0.136,0.015 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.059,-0.181,0.06 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.056,-0.132,0.018 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.057,-0.158,0.035 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.038,-0.019,0.086 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.06,0.016,0.112 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.01,-0.111,0.11 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.145,-0.034,0.312 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.209,0.051,0.359 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.149,0.044,0.234 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.247,0.11,0.364 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.018,-0.105,0.071 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.043,-0.081,-0.002 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.034,-0.112,0.053 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,0.0,-0.086,0.096 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.071,0.073 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.059,0.073 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.054,-0.036,0.136 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.09,-0.01,0.191 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.111,0.002,0.22 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.064,-0.025,0.147 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.191,0.029,0.372 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.252,0.083,0.423 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.195,0.085,0.298 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.288,0.178,0.39 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.119,-0.19,-0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.147,-0.26,-0.049 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.137,-0.25,-0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.099,-0.177,-0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.1,-0.257,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.098,-0.177,-0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.039,-0.094,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.099,-0.236,0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.382,0.205,0.588,0.023,-0.024,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.941,-0.029,-0.171,0.079 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.111,-0.104,0.312 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.178,-0.02,0.361 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.115,0.028,0.191 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.218,0.087,0.337 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.146,-0.243,-0.062 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.174,-0.299,-0.07 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.164,-0.291,-0.058 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.125,-0.228,-0.035 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.127,-0.285,0.015 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.124,-0.212,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.064,-0.127,-0.016 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.125,-0.281,-0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.618,0.412,0.795,-0.024,-0.082,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.053,-0.183,0.053 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.09,-0.107,0.279 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.158,-0.004,0.315 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.094,0.002,0.179 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.199,0.073,0.326 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.088,-0.212,0.049 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.115,-0.197,-0.037 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.105,-0.226,0.035 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.068,-0.203,0.074 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.07,-0.151,0.011 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.151,0.032 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.01,-0.124,0.1 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.068,-0.173,0.024 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.059,0.529,0.028,-0.085,0.146 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.051,-0.056,0.155 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.136,0.003,0.317 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.201,0.065,0.356 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.14,0.037,0.255 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.24,0.146,0.322 -Drift,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.258,-0.613,-0.015 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.29,-0.662,-0.08 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.279,-0.657,-0.025 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.236,-0.619,0.023 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.238,-0.598,-0.03 -Drift,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.235,-0.606,-0.012 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.169,-0.454,0.033 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.236,-0.593,-0.03 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.125,-0.453,0.094 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.099,-0.387,0.097 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.157,-0.465,-0.003 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.076,-0.02,0.179 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.005,-0.347,0.218 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.12,-0.22,0.302 -Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.746,-0.11 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.395,-0.775,-0.154 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.383,-0.747,-0.141 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.337,-0.733,-0.065 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.339,-0.696,-0.115 -Naive,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.336,-0.695,-0.104 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.265,-0.559,-0.054 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.337,-0.733,-0.091 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.217,-0.564,0.02 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.188,-0.46,0.004 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.252,-0.553,-0.069 -Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.082,-0.218,0.019 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.077,-0.413,0.123 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.048,-0.261,0.223 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.265,-0.38,-0.158 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.449,-0.17 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.403,-0.174 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.346,-0.151 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.244,-0.411,-0.111 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.241,-0.343,-0.141 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.175,-0.305,-0.046 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.242,-0.425,-0.093 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.13,-0.236,-0.029 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.104,-0.218,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.163,-0.342,-0.038 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.005,-0.279,0.257 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.071,-0.14,0.292 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.116,0.004,0.214 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.43,-0.693,-0.222 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.669,-0.289 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.453,-0.695,-0.255 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.405,-0.637,-0.211 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.591,-0.232 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.403,-0.603,-0.246 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.329,-0.572,-0.124 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.405,-0.639,-0.217 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.278,-0.508,-0.095 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.248,-0.484,-0.078 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.315,-0.475,-0.171 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.136,-0.432,0.18 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.051,-0.288,0.207 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.131,-0.272,-0.004 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 9fd9f09950c2c7d281c14073e95bf6ab2bf58a10..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.049,0.033 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.025,-0.013,0.059 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.023,-0.072,0.097 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.042,-0.043,0.121 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.072,0.024,0.114 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.067,0.006,0.121 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.145 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.127,0.062,0.194 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.096,0.004,0.19 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.157,0.032,0.256 -TiRex,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.321,0.158,0.466 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.266,0.192,0.336 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.233,0.457 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.25,0.493 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.034,0.046 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.032,-0.002,0.067 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.031,-0.057,0.101 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.049,-0.039,0.124 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.079,0.013,0.143 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,0.025,0.113 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.103,0.039,0.168 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.134,0.06,0.206 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.102,0.007,0.196 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.163,0.042,0.254 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.143,0.481 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.208,0.332 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.353,0.247,0.456 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.378,0.248,0.505 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.026,-0.063,0.013 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.033,-0.072,0.002 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.108,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.017,-0.083,0.093 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.048,-0.014,0.112 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.043,-0.024,0.097 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.073,0.017,0.133 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.105,0.031,0.181 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.072,-0.031,0.164 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.135,-0.004,0.235 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.303,0.116,0.462 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.189,0.313 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.332,0.221,0.436 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.358,0.218,0.492 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.024,-0.108,0.067 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.032,-0.112,0.054 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.088,0.097 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.019,-0.046,0.083 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.05,-0.051,0.133 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.044,-0.032,0.109 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.075,-0.031,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.106,-0.004,0.203 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.074,-0.011,0.151 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.137,0.063,0.203 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.304,0.145,0.456 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.165,0.338 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.234,0.423 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.359,0.234,0.484 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.044,-0.138,0.041 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.051,-0.141,0.037 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.017,-0.102,0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.019,-0.09,0.044 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.066,0.119 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.026,-0.041,0.082 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.038,0.142 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.089,-0.017,0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.056,0.018,0.09 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.12,0.056,0.188 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.291,0.134,0.447 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.234,0.133,0.333 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.228,0.405 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.214,0.48 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.078,-0.129,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.166,-0.013 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.05,-0.126,0.014 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.052,-0.154,0.048 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.135,0.062 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.006,-0.092,0.065 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.027,-0.031,0.073 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.06,0.011,0.115 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.026,-0.082,0.134 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.092,-0.025,0.197 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.268,0.112,0.402 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.209,0.113,0.289 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.298,0.157,0.418 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.219,0.432 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.072,-0.137,-0.007 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.079,-0.127,-0.026 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.045,-0.107,0.024 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.046,-0.123,0.031 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.027,-0.089,0.039 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.006,-0.069,0.084 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.032,-0.045,0.099 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.065,-0.018,0.148 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.031,-0.058,0.119 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.097,-0.001,0.182 -AutoETS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.272,0.096,0.444 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.214,0.135,0.291 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.302,0.195,0.407 -AutoETS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.329,0.189,0.468 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.107,-0.17,-0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.115,-0.201,-0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.079,-0.154,-0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.081,-0.203,0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.166,0.037 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.027,-0.078,0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.033,-0.11,0.043 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.441,0.235,0.647,0.034,-0.012,0.086 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.124,0.116 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.067,-0.065,0.176 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.074,0.409 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.188,0.105,0.254 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.279,0.156,0.396 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.307,0.183,0.438 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.146,-0.241,-0.066 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.154,-0.26,-0.064 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.117,-0.221,-0.032 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.119,-0.255,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.098,-0.228,0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.063,-0.13,-0.011 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.069,-0.173,0.018 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.559,0.353,0.765,-0.035,-0.094,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.036,-0.188,0.094 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.087,0.145 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.221,0.051,0.376 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.159,0.071,0.237 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.253,0.126,0.377 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.282,0.165,0.399 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.106,-0.235,-0.004 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.114,-0.244,-0.007 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.078,-0.197,0.03 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.08,-0.177,0.01 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.059,-0.099,-0.019 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.026,-0.154,0.076 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.032,-0.135,0.055 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.131,0.111 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.035,-0.104,0.158 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.068,-0.02,0.16 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.249,0.079,0.417 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.188,0.058,0.315 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.279,0.174,0.381 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.307,0.155,0.461 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.187,-0.343,-0.033 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.195,-0.34,-0.044 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.157,-0.307,0.004 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.159,-0.254,-0.067 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.137,-0.231,-0.059 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.101,-0.246,0.024 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.107,-0.222,0.001 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.072,-0.214,0.061 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.169,0.08 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.073,-0.191,0.019 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.194,0.039,0.357 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.129,0.019,0.249 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.227,0.144,0.299 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.257,0.129,0.393 -Drift,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.472,-0.873,-0.188 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.483,-0.929,-0.166 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.435,-0.859,-0.131 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.437,-0.838,-0.17 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.41,-0.81,-0.155 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.366,-0.673,-0.126 -Drift,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.373,-0.799,-0.106 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.329,-0.691,-0.079 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.284,-0.602,-0.053 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.331,-0.715,-0.086 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.24,-0.555,-0.041 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.08,-0.452,0.16 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.041,-0.302,0.25 -Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,-0.013,0.174 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.363,-0.507,-0.238 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.497,-0.263 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.457,-0.233 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.511,-0.197 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.306,-0.499,-0.154 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.265,-0.406,-0.127 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.272,-0.41,-0.156 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.231,-0.341,-0.117 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.189,-0.311,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.232,-0.461,-0.061 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.148,-0.331,-0.02 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.074,-0.19,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.112,-0.011,0.234 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.147,-0.031,0.333 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.842,-0.303 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.546,-0.839,-0.328 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.496,-0.772,-0.283 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.499,-0.733,-0.305 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.681,-0.296 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.424,-0.718,-0.186 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.432,-0.685,-0.243 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.386,-0.655,-0.185 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.339,-0.606,-0.144 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.388,-0.617,-0.211 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.293,-0.426,-0.168 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.333,0.232 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.126,-0.306,0.01 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.412,0.206,0.647,0.039,-0.185,0.265 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.597,-0.971,-0.333 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.608,-1.02,-0.329 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.556,-0.967,-0.279 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.559,-0.938,-0.306 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.923,-0.273 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.482,-0.759,-0.28 -Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.49,-0.879,-0.233 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.442,-0.779,-0.224 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.393,-0.663,-0.198 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.444,-0.855,-0.183 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.346,-0.648,-0.148 -Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.211,0.013 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.172,-0.5,0.03 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.794,-0.04,-0.36,0.156 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 1b091ba8412b3034080cdcb255a392ddb58d7981..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.85714285714286,36.605677387649834,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,87.05357142857144,34.31440963476917,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,79.61309523809524,33.08143144251301,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,76.9345238095238,32.09191406128986,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.45238095238095,30.491645603453122,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,62.500000000000014,26.492402114565415,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,60.5654761904762,27.748908020810514,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,56.8452380952381,25.64075867979405,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,31.99404761904762,4.953841003733173,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 -AutoARIMA,31.99404761904762,6.157935798308323,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 -AutoTheta,31.250000000000007,5.870699140858715,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,22.172619047619047,-9.418472845195168,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 -Seasonal Naive,21.875,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.94047619047619,-29.01179677799075,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.9523809523809526,-38.47295911331854,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 524549b227554ea385c289e0aac448fe4817ffcc..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.04761904761905,56.38130532139749,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,87.64880952380955,54.02589153177224,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.69642857142856,53.090548134983905,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,80.50595238095238,52.71089296427414,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.83333333333333,50.17769224138213,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.52380952380951,45.24211890278741,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,59.375,46.75728702656884,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.22619047619049,46.36871724725341,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.56547619047619,23.569195904321717,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 -Stat. Ensemble,32.291666666666664,12.2011691174994,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 -AutoTheta,24.404761904761905,-8.679221660647052,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,23.958333333333336,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,23.363095238095237,-57.991658816184334,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 -Naive,14.583333333333332,-93.34435518152173,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.9761904761904767,-103.16658797824996,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 45ecd74cd9247bc17cf338f50dd57e231f8282da..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.26190476190477,43.79122175187925,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,88.24404761904762,40.846554891357655,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.7202380952381,39.02958949514069,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,75.14880952380952,38.49953271528147,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.1547619047619,37.402148758086064,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.20238095238094,34.649030144920836,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.82142857142857,32.82212435964361,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.1845238095238,34.275371714631554,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,31.39880952380953,9.182669245800245,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 -AutoTheta,29.166666666666664,14.492192307942386,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.720238095238088,9.221427219349588,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 -Naive,25.0,0.53431759331386,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.25595238095238,0.5636979140183129,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 -Seasonal Naive,18.60119047619047,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.119047619047619,-9.202826200764115,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 27a2e37064db93777a11bb517c79b21990d5f1a3..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.04761904761905,60.60556778506621,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,88.24404761904762,58.16751894020451,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.99404761904762,56.94649552407227,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,79.61309523809524,56.5455202719779,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.83333333333333,55.07707058833018,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.47619047619045,52.15616003488769,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.52380952380951,50.66033388093718,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.1845238095238,51.22975427213352,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -AutoARIMA,34.67261904761905,24.140201566101073,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 -Stat. Ensemble,30.80357142857143,12.751170671675593,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 -AutoTheta,25.297619047619047,-2.5446445013498797,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,22.767857142857146,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,20.982142857142858,-58.590060894645916,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 -Naive,13.095238095238097,-70.46841679118427,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.464285714285714,-79.14417548576023,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 05a33a9280fc9dc08e82491038a29457cba835d3..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.035,0.0,0.072 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.053,0.021,0.086 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.033,0.106 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.088,0.052,0.13 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.138,0.089,0.187 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.123,0.078,0.166 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.147,0.093,0.203 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.266,0.382 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.275,0.395 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.258,0.392 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.316,0.527 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.309,0.438 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.509,0.388,0.627 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.429,0.651 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.036,-0.078,-0.0 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.018,-0.021,0.056 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.033,0.003,0.058 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.055,0.016,0.09 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.106,0.053,0.155 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.091,0.038,0.138 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.117,0.049,0.183 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.247,0.357 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.249,0.373 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.302,0.232,0.374 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.302,0.504 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.283,0.416 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.37,0.615 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.526,0.416,0.638 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.056,-0.094,-0.021 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.396,0.208,0.583,-0.019,-0.059,0.021 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.562,0.354,0.751,0.015,-0.02,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.037,-0.005,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.09,0.038,0.144 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.074,0.031,0.119 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.1,0.03,0.172 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.287,0.234,0.342 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.296,0.239,0.359 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.226,0.357 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.291,0.496 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.331,0.27,0.404 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.36,0.607 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.402,0.633 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.119,-0.034 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.034,-0.062,-0.003 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.438,0.249,0.646,-0.015,-0.053,0.019 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.688,0.5,0.855,0.023,0.001,0.046 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.076,0.031,0.122 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.688,0.958,0.06,0.002,0.106 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.087,0.02,0.153 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.223,0.332 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.228,0.349 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.214,0.343 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.268,0.493 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.261,0.394 -TiRex,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.474,0.348,0.6 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.394,0.626 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.096,-0.149,-0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.058,-0.099,-0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.039,-0.085,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.312,0.145,0.5,-0.024,-0.048,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.499,0.833,0.054,0.016,0.096 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.812,0.667,0.958,0.038,-0.019,0.084 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.065,-0.001,0.127 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.259,0.2,0.32 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.269,0.205,0.338 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.198,0.332 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.365,0.247,0.489 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.305,0.241,0.381 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.461,0.333,0.588 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.498,0.381,0.614 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.16,-0.229,-0.098 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.119,-0.184,-0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.098,-0.168,-0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.082,-0.138,-0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.501,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.521,0.312,0.708,-0.017,-0.085,0.037 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.708,0.011,-0.063,0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.217,0.151,0.273 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.227,0.166,0.284 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.171,0.269 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.328,0.209,0.46 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.265,0.197,0.334 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.43,0.306,0.55 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.355,0.58 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.14,-0.199,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.1,-0.161,-0.039 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.08,-0.134,-0.032 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.146,0.042,0.312,-0.064,-0.119,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.188,0.042,0.333,-0.039,-0.092,0.019 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.479,0.292,0.688,0.017,-0.038,0.078 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.028,-0.047,0.089 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.23,0.167,0.289 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.24,0.173,0.307 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.232,0.165,0.299 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.34,0.233,0.45 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.277,0.209,0.353 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.322,0.564 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.371,0.591 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.173,-0.255,-0.103 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.132,-0.224,-0.051 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.111,-0.208,-0.031 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.095,-0.18,-0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.07,-0.145,0.001 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.292,0.667,-0.012,-0.083,0.059 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.029,-0.098,0.045 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.208,0.105,0.301 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.218,0.116,0.313 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.21,0.115,0.302 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.32,0.18,0.47 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.256,0.158,0.358 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.875,0.749,1.0,0.424,0.293,0.545 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.463,0.342,0.574 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.48,-0.619,-0.362 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.555,-0.328 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.402,-0.52,-0.305 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.496,-0.287 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.35,-0.471,-0.249 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.277,-0.376,-0.177 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.299,-0.406,-0.201 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.262,-0.432,-0.118 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.562,0.417,0.729,0.013,-0.018,0.052 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.003,-0.071,0.077 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.688,0.5,0.875,0.142,-0.001,0.282 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.062,-0.022,0.144 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.273,0.105,0.457 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.322,0.167,0.494 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.499,-0.653,-0.379 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.595,-0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.42,-0.56,-0.314 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.536,-0.295 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.367,-0.51,-0.258 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.293,-0.396,-0.199 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.315,-0.443,-0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.278,-0.456,-0.131 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.438,0.271,0.583,-0.013,-0.055,0.017 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.01,-0.076,0.058 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.131,-0.017,0.283 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.05,-0.037,0.126 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.263,0.087,0.448 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.314,0.149,0.483 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.645,-0.347 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.433,-0.597,-0.302 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.556,-0.292 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.386,-0.523,-0.272 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.496,-0.247 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.368,-0.206 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.303,-0.427,-0.198 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.266,-0.433,-0.13 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.003,-0.083,0.067 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.01,-0.061,0.071 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.14,-0.017,0.299 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.059,-0.044,0.146 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.27,0.117,0.437 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.178,0.469 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.116,-0.462 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-1.015,-0.432 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.635,-0.983,-0.41 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.611,-0.972,-0.366 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.574,-0.958,-0.328 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.489,-0.851,-0.264 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.514,-0.819,-0.304 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.471,-0.887,-0.22 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.125,0.5,-0.166,-0.394,0.001 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.312,0.146,0.5,-0.151,-0.395,0.017 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.162,-0.427,0.017 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.094,-0.311,0.064 -AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.333,0.708,0.152,-0.065,0.379 -AutoETS,Drift,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.21,0.008,0.422 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.577,-0.781,-0.448 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.522,-0.712,-0.396 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.494,-0.677,-0.37 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.473,-0.65,-0.354 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.439,-0.616,-0.317 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.36,-0.502,-0.245 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.384,-0.547,-0.264 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.345,-0.557,-0.187 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.066,-0.169,0.022 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.052,-0.144,0.036 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.062,-0.171,0.042 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.086,-0.068,0.237 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.225,0.015,0.419 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.278,0.081,0.454 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.035,-1.682,-0.634 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.964,-1.6,-0.586 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.928,-1.544,-0.562 -Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.9,-1.501,-0.535 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.856,-1.426,-0.499 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.755,-1.223,-0.441 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.786,-1.296,-0.474 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.251,-0.735,-1.2,-0.415 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.375,-0.842,-0.118 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.357,-0.81,-0.095 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.371,-0.776,-0.132 -Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.292,0.667,-0.179,-0.609,0.061 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.29,-0.721,-0.015 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.068,0.046,0.091 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.861,-0.752 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.108,-1.762,-0.712 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.069,-1.724,-0.671 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.039,-1.672,-0.651 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.992,-1.592,-0.615 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.884,-1.38,-0.549 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.917,-1.444,-0.589 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.862,-1.347,-0.52 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.476,-0.974,-0.201 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.457,-0.935,-0.175 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.884,-0.217 -Drift,AutoETS,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.266,-0.731,-0.008 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.385,-0.831,-0.088 -Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.073,-0.101,-0.048 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index f4c4fdee696d82af0ea5262d3c23b6aafff87475..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.051,0.013,0.092 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.07,0.031,0.113 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.078,0.039,0.126 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.125,0.077,0.179 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.203,0.145,0.271 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.181,0.138,0.225 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.137,0.239 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.371,0.493 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.435,0.572 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.511,0.679 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.457,0.67 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.691,0.54,0.811 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.699,0.836 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.712,0.844 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.054,-0.102,-0.013 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.02,-0.023,0.06 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.028,-0.002,0.052 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.077,0.038,0.115 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.16,0.086,0.237 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.137,0.085,0.181 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.143,0.095,0.189 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.341,0.461 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.402,0.552 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.577,0.482,0.664 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.54,0.422,0.655 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.673,0.513,0.803 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.762,0.679,0.83 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.695,0.838 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.075,-0.127,-0.032 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.02,-0.064,0.022 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.008,-0.031,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.058,0.01,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.143,0.071,0.211 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.119,0.082,0.158 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.125,0.072,0.178 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.336,0.442 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.393,0.535 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.475,0.655 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.422,0.639 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.668,0.502,0.797 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.674,0.826 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.69,0.834 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.084,-0.144,-0.04 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.029,-0.055,0.002 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.008,-0.052,0.03 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.051,0.022,0.082 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.136,0.061,0.211 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.112,0.051,0.16 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.158 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.329,0.441 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.39,0.534 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.471,0.649 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.41,0.643 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.499,0.798 -TiRex,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.755,0.673,0.823 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.687,0.832 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.142,-0.219,-0.084 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.084,-0.13,-0.039 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.062,-0.123,-0.01 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.054,-0.09,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.582,0.917,0.09,0.014,0.159 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.064,-0.006,0.122 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.667,0.917,0.071,0.037,0.111 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.293,0.408 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.433,0.355,0.507 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.542,0.448,0.629 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.382,0.622 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.65,0.47,0.791 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.742,0.66,0.811 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.755,0.677,0.82 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.255,-0.372,-0.169 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.191,-0.311,-0.094 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.167,-0.267,-0.077 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.158,-0.267,-0.065 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.083,0.418,-0.099,-0.189,-0.014 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.028,-0.117,0.049 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.021,-0.107,0.061 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.284,0.206,0.357 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.376,0.292,0.462 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.496,0.395,0.59 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.452,0.326,0.577 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.619,0.419,0.775 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.63,0.787 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.648,0.798 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.221,-0.29,-0.159 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.158,-0.221,-0.093 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.135,-0.187,-0.09 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.126,-0.191,-0.053 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.069,-0.139,0.006 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.028,-0.051,0.105 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.007,-0.059,0.076 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.246,0.365 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.317,0.47 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.51,0.41,0.6 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.468,0.341,0.593 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.447,0.776 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.639,0.796 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.738,0.654,0.807 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.314,-0.158 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.167,-0.232,-0.105 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.143,-0.217,-0.078 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.134,-0.188,-0.083 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.083,0.333,-0.076,-0.125,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.021,-0.065,0.096 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.007,-0.083,0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.298,0.239,0.36 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.389,0.311,0.462 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.507,0.407,0.593 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.464,0.336,0.589 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.624,0.431,0.78 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.723,0.636,0.795 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.736,0.653,0.805 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-0.971,-0.589 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.662,-0.856,-0.517 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.629,-0.792,-0.507 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.616,-0.788,-0.49 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.69,-0.414 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.396,-0.556,-0.26 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.575,-0.326 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.425,-0.563,-0.314 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.129,0.055,0.205 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.297,0.16,0.424 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.236,0.077,0.386 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.49,0.22,0.713 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.605,0.485,0.708 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.624,0.512,0.723 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.336,-0.769 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.91,-1.233,-0.673 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.153,-0.646 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.857,-1.146,-0.639 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.762,-1.028,-0.55 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.603,-0.858,-0.412 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.887,-0.465 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.637,-0.86,-0.452 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.149,-0.259,-0.058 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.192,0.06,0.335 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.604,0.458,0.771,0.122,-0.066,0.298 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.439,0.12,0.689 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.546,0.41,0.66 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.442,0.676 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.492,-2.115,-1.044 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.364,-1.976,-0.929 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.317,-1.896,-0.904 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.298,-1.852,-0.889 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.181,-1.693,-0.812 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.985,-1.437,-0.652 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.041,-1.499,-0.695 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.026,-1.454,-0.688 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.422,-0.736,-0.191 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.238,-0.503,-0.064 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.087,-0.425,0.187 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.316,-0.143,0.641 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.438,0.307,0.552 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.465,0.339,0.573 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.293,-2.033,-0.842 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.175,-1.896,-0.731 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.132,-1.771,-0.729 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.115,-1.799,-0.695 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.007,-1.647,-0.618 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.826,-1.363,-0.485 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.878,-1.458,-0.518 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.865,-1.431,-0.507 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.308,-0.63,-0.084 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.396,0.229,0.542,-0.139,-0.424,0.062 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.08,-0.23,0.298 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.367,-0.065,0.652 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.604,0.875,0.483,0.284,0.63 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.508,0.311,0.652 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.236,-4.298,-1.173 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.063,-4.072,-1.052 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.013,-3.932,-1.009 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.989,-3.958,-0.997 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.854,-3.795,-0.887 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-1.626,-3.45,-0.721 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.685,-3.458,-0.809 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.658,-3.552,-0.759 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.962,-2.481,-0.281 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.782,-2.221,-0.137 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.461,-1.784,0.125 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.58,-1.874,0.061 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.148,-0.751,0.525 -AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.186,-0.679,0.554 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.433,-5.103,-2.32 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.206,-4.867,-2.12 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.122,-4.734,-2.067 -Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-3.089,-4.662,-2.056 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-2.881,-4.277,-1.937 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.531,-3.704,-1.702 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.631,-3.909,-1.771 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-2.605,-3.867,-1.745 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.53,-2.43,-0.943 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.202,-1.944,-0.696 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.779,-1.234,-0.443 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.125,0.396,-0.933,-1.702,-0.396 -Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.174,-1.107,0.429 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.048,0.034,0.064 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.658,-5.424,-2.472 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.419,-5.171,-2.279 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.331,-5.04,-2.224 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.296,-4.958,-2.2 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.078,-4.557,-2.092 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.71,-3.948,-1.839 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.816,-4.184,-1.894 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.788,-4.116,-1.88 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.658,-2.609,-1.05 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.314,-2.087,-0.791 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.869,-1.342,-0.513 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.032,-1.871,-0.452 -Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.229,-1.244,0.404 -Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.051,-0.068,-0.035 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index d8ac1656651264c5812fe91e3e6eee5f7f6aa1e6..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.458,0.25,0.625,0.05,-0.007,0.129 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.078,0.031,0.134 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.032,0.169 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.102,0.045,0.179 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.21 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.093,0.245 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.101,0.189 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.313,0.444 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.27,0.421 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.31,0.444 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.435,0.349,0.527 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.327,0.548 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.356,0.517 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.412,0.562 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.542,0.375,0.75,-0.052,-0.147,0.007 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.729,0.542,0.875,0.03,-0.017,0.075 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.038,0.005,0.07 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.055,0.014,0.094 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.024,0.166 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.119,0.063,0.179 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.1,0.031,0.158 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.28,0.421 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.241,0.381 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.282,0.415 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.405,0.322,0.502 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.296,0.525 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.333,0.489 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.458,0.388,0.541 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.085,-0.155,-0.032 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.125,0.458,-0.031,-0.081,0.017 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.037,0.053 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.026,-0.032,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.067,0.002,0.132 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.092,0.041,0.148 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.812,0.625,0.958,0.072,0.025,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.329,0.257,0.399 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.229,0.356 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.328,0.263,0.389 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.387,0.296,0.48 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.387,0.275,0.513 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.39,0.31,0.47 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.442,0.365,0.521 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.203,-0.033 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.04,-0.075,-0.005 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.056,0.035 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.018,-0.01,0.044 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.059,-0.026,0.14 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.085,0.033,0.141 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.688,0.958,0.064,-0.011,0.122 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.323,0.249,0.397 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.222,0.349 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.323,0.256,0.387 -TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.382,0.285,0.485 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.382,0.261,0.518 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.385,0.308,0.467 -TiRex,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.437,0.36,0.522 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.114,-0.218,-0.047 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.058,-0.104,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.027,-0.081,0.031 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.018,-0.046,0.01 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.042,-0.044,0.134 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.542,0.854,0.068,0.018,0.135 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.048,-0.026,0.109 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.311,0.238,0.386 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.268,0.205,0.337 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.31,0.242,0.375 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.371,0.278,0.472 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.245,0.51 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.374,0.293,0.452 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.427,0.351,0.51 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.163,-0.266,-0.084 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.2,-0.025 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.072,-0.152,-0.002 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.063,-0.163,0.025 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.044,-0.155,0.042 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.027,-0.056,0.108 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.006,-0.091,0.086 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.28,0.199,0.364 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.236,0.148,0.328 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.28,0.207,0.356 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.343,0.227,0.464 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.343,0.203,0.492 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.26,0.44 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.402,0.302,0.503 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.324,-0.102 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.136,-0.218,-0.067 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.102,-0.173,-0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.092,-0.165,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.292,0.146,0.458,-0.073,-0.156,-0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.028,-0.121,0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.022,-0.121,0.051 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.26,0.184,0.328 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.214,0.16,0.268 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.26,0.187,0.327 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.325,0.227,0.428 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.324,0.192,0.475 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.328,0.255,0.4 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.385,0.3,0.471 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.169,-0.234,-0.113 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.111,-0.188,-0.033 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.375,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.146,0.042,0.312,-0.069,-0.138,0.011 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.05,-0.122,0.026 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.006,-0.094,0.083 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.022,-0.054,0.108 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.276,0.209,0.352 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.231,0.155,0.314 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.276,0.209,0.338 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.339,0.25,0.433 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.339,0.22,0.463 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.343,0.265,0.426 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.398,0.327,0.477 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.616,-0.799,-0.455 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.728,-0.388 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.49,-0.665,-0.345 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.477,-0.657,-0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.451,-0.628,-0.313 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.39,-0.572,-0.248 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.352,-0.488,-0.225 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.382,-0.542,-0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.667,0.499,0.833,-0.062,-0.175,0.023 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.479,0.312,0.625,-0.0,-0.054,0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.087,-0.041,0.202 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.688,0.5,0.875,0.087,-0.067,0.272 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.092,0.023,0.17 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.168,0.068,0.262 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.521,-0.728,-0.371 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.616,-0.318 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.553,-0.297 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.39,-0.535,-0.285 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.366,-0.509,-0.258 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.308,-0.488,-0.174 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.273,-0.366,-0.191 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.301,-0.458,-0.184 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.167,0.501,0.058,-0.023,0.149 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.058,-0.042,0.153 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.14,0.042,0.242 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.14,-0.001,0.316 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.145,0.062,0.228 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.217,0.141,0.309 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.798,-0.45 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.71,-0.394 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.489,-0.637,-0.356 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.476,-0.632,-0.343 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.45,-0.6,-0.319 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.389,-0.554,-0.261 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.351,-0.486,-0.23 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.381,-0.51,-0.264 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.521,0.375,0.688,0.0,-0.041,0.051 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.062,-0.18,0.04 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.087,-0.045,0.211 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.087,-0.076,0.266 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.092,0.015,0.176 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.169,0.065,0.265 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.77,-1.113,-0.537 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.681,-1.01,-0.475 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.631,-0.924,-0.421 -Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.617,-0.941,-0.398 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.589,-0.896,-0.386 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.522,-0.864,-0.294 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.481,-0.749,-0.294 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.513,-0.764,-0.333 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.095,-0.254,0.039 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.163,-0.32,-0.044 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.096,-0.267,0.043 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.0,-0.124,0.118 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.333,0.667,0.005,-0.133,0.133 -Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.089,0.051,0.129 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.213,-0.486 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.681,-1.106,-0.42 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.631,-1.051,-0.38 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.617,-1.073,-0.353 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-1.04,-0.325 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.522,-0.967,-0.255 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.48,-0.905,-0.238 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.513,-0.863,-0.282 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.312,0.125,0.5,-0.095,-0.373,0.062 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.163,-0.463,0.001 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.095,-0.362,0.07 -AutoETS,Naive,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.0,-0.133,0.11 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.006,-0.257,0.171 -AutoETS,Drift,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.089,-0.045,0.19 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.072,-0.552 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.691,-0.957,-0.498 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.64,-0.885,-0.449 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.626,-0.875,-0.445 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.597,-0.825,-0.415 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.785,-0.352 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.489,-0.667,-0.342 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.521,-0.743,-0.36 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.101,-0.204,-0.023 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.169,-0.295,-0.066 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.102,-0.214,-0.015 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.333,0.667,-0.005,-0.153,0.117 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.396,0.208,0.583,-0.006,-0.206,0.205 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.667,0.5,0.875,0.084,-0.026,0.185 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.943,-1.284,-0.701 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.846,-1.177,-0.635 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.791,-1.089,-0.574 -Drift,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.776,-1.091,-0.562 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.745,-1.041,-0.542 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.671,-1.012,-0.432 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.626,-0.891,-0.429 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.662,-0.913,-0.485 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.202,-0.356,-0.073 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.277,-0.446,-0.164 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.203,-0.361,-0.069 -Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.098,-0.149,-0.054 -Drift,AutoETS,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.098,-0.235,0.043 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.125,0.5,-0.092,-0.227,0.025 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 1cbae5c2d629974e639c9fae77a676073e3bda4d..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.058,-0.002,0.142 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.085,0.032,0.149 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.093,0.035,0.184 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.123,0.058,0.212 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.177,0.114,0.244 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.13,0.286 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.192,0.152,0.235 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.399,0.555 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.47,0.617 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.616,0.529,0.688 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.606,0.517,0.691 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.59,0.832 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.708,0.815 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.72,0.824 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.062,-0.165,0.002 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.028,-0.023,0.077 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.037,0.006,0.068 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.667,0.958,0.069,0.029,0.107 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.126,0.041,0.204 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.152,0.1,0.209 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.142,0.072,0.2 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.449,0.377,0.525 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.439,0.597 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.499,0.671 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.485,0.667 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.55,0.825 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.755,0.683,0.809 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.697,0.818 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.093,-0.175,-0.033 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.029,-0.083,0.022 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.041,0.061 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.042,-0.014,0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.1,0.023,0.178 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.078,0.178 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.117,0.068,0.164 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.354,0.516 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.417,0.587 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.484,0.664 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.569,0.475,0.66 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.541,0.82 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.747,0.668,0.803 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.684,0.813 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.103,-0.226,-0.036 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.039,-0.073,-0.006 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.065,0.04 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.033,0.003,0.064 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.092,-0.009,0.176 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.119,0.072,0.172 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.109,0.026,0.171 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.355,0.502 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.419,0.576 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.486,0.653 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.466,0.651 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.695,0.534,0.818 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.67,0.801 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.687,0.81 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.14,-0.27,-0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.333,-0.074,-0.12,-0.03 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.043,-0.104,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.034,-0.068,-0.003 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.061,-0.04,0.152 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.792,0.958,0.09,0.044,0.153 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.079,-0.011,0.145 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.335,0.49 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.398,0.564 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.467,0.645 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.451,0.641 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.518,0.816 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.736,0.662,0.793 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.749,0.679,0.803 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.214,-0.323,-0.129 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.144,-0.256,-0.043 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.111,-0.216,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.101,-0.214,0.009 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.065,-0.179,0.038 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.03,-0.074,0.124 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.625,0.458,0.833,0.019,-0.087,0.113 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.369,0.268,0.469 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.452,0.352,0.535 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.425,0.626 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.407,0.63 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.671,0.49,0.808 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.719,0.637,0.779 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.733,0.655,0.791 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.252,-0.4,-0.15 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.179,-0.264,-0.111 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.104,0.0,0.25,-0.146,-0.216,-0.084 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.135,-0.208,-0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.042,0.208,-0.098,-0.181,-0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.031,-0.141,0.069 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.521,0.333,0.729,-0.012,-0.116,0.069 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.35,0.261,0.445 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.434,0.331,0.52 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.407,0.609 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.401,0.604 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.468,0.8 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.711,0.623,0.773 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.641,0.784 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.307,-0.18 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.166,-0.251,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.133,-0.196,-0.073 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.122,-0.206,-0.026 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.086,-0.17,0.011 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.167,0.542,-0.019,-0.127,0.08 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.479,0.271,0.667,0.012,-0.074,0.104 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.268,0.443 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.345,0.529 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.524,0.422,0.615 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.407,0.612 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.495,0.8 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.637,0.772 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.728,0.651,0.783 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.926,-1.246,-0.665 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.106,-0.604 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.064,-0.548 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-1.009,-0.55 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.689,-0.963,-0.504 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.586,-0.884,-0.365 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.538,-0.802,-0.353 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.796,-0.367 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.131,0.049,0.214 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.26,0.148,0.365 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.241,0.096,0.38 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.496,0.217,0.718 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.555,0.441,0.644 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.577,0.472,0.662 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.215,-1.609,-0.886 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.086,-1.481,-0.781 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.42,-0.714 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.008,-1.359,-0.721 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.942,-1.292,-0.662 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.824,-1.152,-0.542 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.768,-1.083,-0.494 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.125,-0.527 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.15,-0.272,-0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.149,0.058,0.238 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.604,0.458,0.771,0.128,-0.061,0.301 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.447,0.138,0.694 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.488,0.377,0.585 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.513,0.411,0.604 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.603,-2.208,-1.121 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.451,-2.038,-0.996 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.382,-1.975,-0.939 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.36,-1.878,-0.944 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.283,-1.816,-0.876 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-1.675,-0.74 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.078,-1.557,-0.686 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.103,-1.596,-0.73 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.352,-0.574,-0.173 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.175,-0.313,-0.061 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.625,0.417,0.792,-0.025,-0.272,0.203 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.361,-0.06,0.657 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.398,0.256,0.517 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.428,0.294,0.544 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.538,-2.236,-1.07 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.005,-0.94 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.323,-1.938,-0.904 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-1.867,-0.874 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.784,-0.822 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.09,-1.7,-0.688 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.526,-0.668 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.05,-1.579,-0.686 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.318,-0.612,-0.106 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.396,0.229,0.542,-0.146,-0.431,0.057 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.375,0.208,0.583,0.025,-0.254,0.214 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.369,-0.057,0.653 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.604,0.875,0.413,0.237,0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.442,0.271,0.571 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.605,-4.936,-1.437 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.384,-4.698,-1.224 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.297,-4.569,-1.178 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.273,-4.506,-1.145 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.178,-4.422,-1.073 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-2.04,-4.217,-0.961 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.914,-4.006,-0.881 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.944,-4.004,-0.981 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.983,-2.549,-0.278 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.81,-2.272,-0.16 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.564,-1.912,0.056 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.586,-1.883,0.054 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.02,-0.976,0.445 -AutoETS,Drift,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.064,-0.899,0.47 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.327,-4.403,-2.425 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.075,-4.234,-2.15 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.959,-4.08,-2.014 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.923,-4.014,-2.031 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.795,-3.832,-1.957 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.563,-3.533,-1.755 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.455,-3.414,-1.649 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.495,-3.377,-1.752 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.247,-1.812,-0.79 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.954,-1.412,-0.605 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.662,-1.07,-0.345 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.125,0.396,-0.705,-1.211,-0.31 -Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.02,-0.8,0.494 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.048,0.034,0.064 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.547,-4.693,-2.565 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.282,-4.507,-2.296 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.161,-4.336,-2.16 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.123,-4.25,-2.191 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.988,-4.069,-2.118 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.744,-3.775,-1.899 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.631,-3.629,-1.789 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.673,-3.602,-1.867 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.362,-1.957,-0.894 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.053,-1.524,-0.698 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.747,-1.191,-0.416 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.791,-1.331,-0.372 -Drift,AutoETS,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.068,-0.886,0.473 -Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.051,-0.069,-0.035 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 9981c80beae16e0be8fe13586ff06d9a450b152b..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.03361344537814,31.481794451725598,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.94957983193277,26.52900086602983,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex,72.6890756302521,26.261371917757693,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.44537815126049,28.503438987326348,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.344537815126046,24.789294507776617,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.20168067226891,22.723384164617542,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,53.361344537815135,15.365311043980789,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.68067226890757,20.2421879515411,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.537815126050425,19.731530492164218,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,40.33613445378151,11.57581735742166,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,34.03361344537815,3.6737220914351054,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,34.033613445378144,7.803844369279123,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 -Naive,31.722689075630246,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,31.722689075630246,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 -Drift,18.907563025210084,-1.4487951551292788,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 27d728683e0b48fa6482be99fc31082279545857..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.07563025210085,43.08495823445069,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.5126050420168,39.40546078196011,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex,77.7310924369748,38.66421195014754,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.4873949579832,37.8955057470284,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.80672268907564,40.4501363806809,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.66386554621849,35.084488727551175,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.663865546218474,33.816247574403114,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,49.99999999999999,26.73938046367741,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,41.17647058823529,17.165725601006145,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,40.33613445378151,-34.43610777026744,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.23529411764705,28.13662869222201,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,27.310924369747898,18.597473231459126,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.957983193277308,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.957983193277308,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.084033613445378,-0.43479898554135143,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index ce1c977feec822c8f89db6cd71bc4bd2963d901f..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,80.67226890756302,33.033168227019026,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,72.6890756302521,27.26832437632678,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.84873949579831,27.337795666708587,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.54621848739495,30.55368652274818,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.344537815126046,25.51157354409269,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,55.042016806722685,15.743089812031885,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.78151260504202,20.258967855985233,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.10084033613446,23.083039753958012,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Sundial-Base,45.79831932773109,19.8798541280895,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,43.27731092436974,10.432170599418688,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,36.134453781512605,8.27094240114572,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.1344537815126,7.846800330751369,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,28.361344537815125,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,28.361344537815125,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 -Drift,18.90756302521008,-1.418173352182306,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index ef6237b49da70b883ac2380d6e28803c3e46c870..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,46.95158936276389,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.63025210084034,41.67847001395525,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.63025210084032,42.705288955262354,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.58823529411764,41.418152536422134,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,69.74789915966386,45.19356656769271,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,60.50420168067227,38.68049112544482,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.2436974789916,37.025124965614744,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,50.84033613445379,28.908056466103393,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.85714285714285,31.75917388658207,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,41.17647058823529,23.59314903701112,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,38.65546218487395,-38.47401258640348,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.411764705882348,20.289228155537774,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 -Naive,18.697478991596633,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.697478991596633,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.605042016806726,-0.2604826926005721,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 9f4e37eed09cfe2dfc4644a81ba64f5c16149a02..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.067,-0.014,0.151 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.014,0.137 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.042,-0.034,0.118 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.089,0.026,0.157 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.113,0.024,0.197 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.19,0.058,0.305 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.141,0.077,0.214 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.146,0.042,0.232 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.225,0.091,0.344 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.164,0.388 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.257,0.153,0.352 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.315,0.207,0.413 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.315,0.207,0.413 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.214,0.423 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.072,-0.177,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.046,0.044 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.028,-0.168,0.084 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.023,-0.016,0.059 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.528,0.882,0.049,-0.007,0.105 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.528,0.941,0.132,-0.023,0.265 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.079,0.006,0.147 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.133 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.169,0.019,0.303 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.237,0.105,0.358 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.101,0.303 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.17,0.36 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.17,0.36 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.276,0.17,0.371 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.158,-0.014 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.046,0.044 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.031,-0.156,0.07 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.02,-0.019,0.053 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.046,0.001,0.092 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.129,0.001,0.247 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.075,0.029,0.123 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.081,-0.002,0.15 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.166,0.031,0.288 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.234,0.098,0.356 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.2,0.103,0.295 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.263,0.158,0.367 -TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.263,0.158,0.367 -TiRex,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.175,0.367 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.134,0.033 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.027,-0.091,0.144 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.03,-0.076,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.049,-0.057,0.149 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.075,-0.039,0.186 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.155,0.006,0.275 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.104,-0.001,0.207 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.109,0.003,0.207 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.191,0.047,0.312 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.258,0.09,0.383 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.225,0.096,0.333 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.285,0.141,0.403 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.285,0.141,0.403 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.295,0.151,0.414 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.098,-0.186,-0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.024,-0.063,0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.02,-0.056,0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.052,-0.175,0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.324,0.735,0.027,-0.023,0.093 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.111,-0.025,0.234 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.057,0.001,0.117 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,0.003,0.116 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.149,0.016,0.27 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.219,0.086,0.338 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.184,0.084,0.281 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.259,0.152,0.354 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.128,-0.245,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.472,-0.052,-0.117,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.048,-0.102,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.081,-0.229,0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.265,0.676,-0.027,-0.103,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.087,-0.039,0.204 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.022,0.087 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.037,-0.073,0.115 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.126,-0.009,0.247 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.198,0.043,0.332 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.162,0.065,0.256 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.227,0.117,0.329 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.227,0.117,0.329 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.238,0.143,0.326 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.235,-0.439,-0.061 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.472,-0.152,-0.361,0.022 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.148,-0.328,-0.001 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.184,-0.38,-0.006 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.125,-0.305,0.025 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.095,-0.256,0.037 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.186,0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.054,-0.255,0.114 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.043,0.009,0.076 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.121,-0.012,0.275 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.082,0.014,0.167 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.154,0.042,0.274 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.154,0.042,0.274 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.166,0.086,0.243 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.164,-0.272,-0.083 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.086,-0.172,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.082,-0.14,-0.03 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.116,-0.261,0.001 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.06,-0.132,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.095,0.022 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.048,0.157 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.006,-0.108,0.103 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.098,-0.013,0.21 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.172,0.041,0.293 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.135,0.052,0.22 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.202,0.099,0.305 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.202,0.099,0.305 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.214,0.125,0.296 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.171,-0.303,-0.044 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.093,-0.154,-0.023 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.177,0.002 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.123,-0.261,-0.003 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.132,-0.003 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.129,0.068 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.052,-0.129,0.203 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.006,-0.115,0.098 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.092,-0.08,0.24 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.167,0.001,0.308 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.129,-0.002,0.242 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.197,0.082,0.298 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.197,0.082,0.298 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.209,0.078,0.323 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.291,-0.524,-0.1 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.204,-0.435,-0.019 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.199,-0.405,-0.032 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.237,-0.454,-0.049 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.176,-0.37,-0.016 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.144,-0.328,0.009 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.045,-0.082,-0.009 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.109,-0.266,0.013 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.102,-0.315,0.074 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.082,-0.066,0.241 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.041,-0.038,0.125 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.116,0.011,0.232 -AutoETS,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.116,0.011,0.232 -AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.128,0.052,0.207 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.406,-0.633,-0.196 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.311,-0.557,-0.117 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.306,-0.553,-0.109 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.347,-0.621,-0.099 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.281,-0.511,-0.094 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.247,-0.498,-0.045 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.138,-0.379,0.012 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.208,-0.415,-0.043 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.2,-0.445,-0.001 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.089,-0.317,0.062 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.045,-0.204,0.064 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.037,-0.118,0.141 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.037,-0.118,0.141 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.05,-0.122,0.172 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.346,-0.542,-0.181 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.255,-0.435,-0.112 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.25,-0.419,-0.115 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.29,-0.499,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.226,-0.391,-0.092 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.193,-0.345,-0.07 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.2,-0.014 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.156,-0.282,-0.054 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.149,-0.32,0.002 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.043,-0.143,0.036 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.043,-0.069,0.169 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,0.015,0.139 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,0.015,0.139 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.041,0.143 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.459,-0.705,-0.26 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.399,-0.675,-0.165 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.33,-0.521,-0.172 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.294,-0.489,-0.132 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.182,-0.377,-0.044 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.254,-0.439,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.246,-0.424,-0.09 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.131,-0.302,-0.011 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.038,-0.164,0.105 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.161,-0.015 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.014,-0.057,0.077 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.459,-0.705,-0.26 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204 -Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.399,-0.675,-0.165 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.33,-0.521,-0.172 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.294,-0.489,-0.132 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.182,-0.377,-0.044 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.254,-0.439,-0.11 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.246,-0.424,-0.09 -Naive,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.131,-0.302,-0.011 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.038,-0.164,0.105 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.161,-0.015 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.014,-0.057,0.077 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.481,-0.733,-0.273 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.381,-0.589,-0.205 -Drift,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.58,-0.212 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.419,-0.706,-0.178 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.349,-0.548,-0.18 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.313,-0.485,-0.166 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.199,-0.321,-0.094 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.272,-0.421,-0.143 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.264,-0.478,-0.085 -Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.147,-0.262,-0.055 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.053,-0.208,0.109 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.167,-0.043 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.014,-0.084,0.054 -Drift,Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.014,-0.084,0.054 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 4db239384c2369277961057c72489edd8a273e78..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.061,-0.011,0.135 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.072,0.024,0.128 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.084,0.024,0.141 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.044,-0.015,0.106 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.14,0.075,0.214 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.123,0.039,0.2 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.223,0.102,0.33 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.313,0.185,0.417 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.547,0.245,0.764 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.208,0.107,0.287 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.201,0.393 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.322,0.528 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.065,-0.157,0.011 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.012,-0.027,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.024,-0.016,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.018,-0.134,0.078 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.084,0.01,0.153 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.067,0.011,0.124 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.173,0.029,0.303 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.136,0.394 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.519,0.197,0.751 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.157,0.099,0.203 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.153,0.356 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.29,0.494 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.078,-0.147,-0.025 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.012,-0.048,0.026 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.012,-0.027,0.045 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.03,-0.14,0.061 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.073,0.02,0.129 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.055,0.006,0.109 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.163,0.042,0.281 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.26,0.125,0.379 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.515,0.198,0.749 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.146,0.07,0.209 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.147,0.343 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.281,0.484 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.091,-0.164,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.013,-0.047,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.043,-0.144,0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,0.001,0.127 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.043,-0.008,0.116 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.152,0.031,0.269 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.25,0.113,0.373 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.511,0.189,0.746 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.136,0.078,0.191 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.237,0.137,0.329 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.278,0.477 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.046,-0.119,0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.017,-0.085,0.118 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.029,-0.065,0.123 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.041,-0.049,0.126 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.1,0.003,0.193 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.083,-0.022,0.187 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.187,0.056,0.297 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.281,0.126,0.401 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.527,0.21,0.753 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.171,0.074,0.257 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.161,0.361 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.405,0.276,0.506 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.405,0.276,0.506 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.407,0.28,0.518 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.163,-0.272,-0.082 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.092,-0.181,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.079,-0.147,-0.021 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.145,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.111,-0.239,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.02,-0.081,0.035 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.097,0.004,0.19 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.201,0.063,0.334 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.484,0.142,0.738 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.079,-0.03,0.175 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.187,0.1,0.277 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.338,0.23,0.436 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.338,0.23,0.436 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.341,0.244,0.429 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.141,-0.249,-0.04 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.071,-0.142,-0.011 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.058,-0.123,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.045,-0.131,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.09,-0.231,0.021 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.019,-0.036,0.075 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.114,-0.014,0.233 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.216,0.053,0.355 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.492,0.147,0.742 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.097,-0.012,0.174 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.099,0.303 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.351,0.227,0.454 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.351,0.227,0.454 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.354,0.239,0.452 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.287,-0.493,-0.114 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.209,-0.435,-0.03 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.194,-0.391,-0.044 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.18,-0.367,-0.032 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.23,-0.422,-0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.107,-0.235,-0.004 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.129,-0.304,0.014 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,-0.022,0.273 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.438,0.038,0.713 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.019,-0.221,0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.1,0.028,0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.267,0.141,0.378 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.267,0.141,0.378 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.271,0.171,0.359 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.455,-0.716,-0.227 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.65,-0.157 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.351,-0.61,-0.143 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.334,-0.595,-0.128 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.391,-0.67,-0.144 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.252,-0.502,-0.067 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.276,-0.551,-0.056 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.376,0.022 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.358,-0.097,0.681 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.153,-0.417,0.05 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.018,-0.19,0.101 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,-0.011,0.302 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,-0.011,0.302 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.175,-0.025,0.321 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-1.208,-3.239,-0.325 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.08,-3.015,-0.246 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.06,-2.983,-0.248 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-1.045,-2.936,-0.233 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-1.113,-3.044,-0.267 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.937,-2.814,-0.166 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.967,-2.881,-0.173 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.78,-2.483,-0.04 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.558,-2.133,0.088 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.776,-2.496,-0.056 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.62,-2.269,0.042 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.344,-1.76,0.201 -AutoETS,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.344,-1.76,0.201 -AutoETS,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.347,-1.747,0.191 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.263,-0.402,-0.12 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.186,-0.255,-0.109 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.172,-0.265,-0.075 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.157,-0.236,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.207,-0.346,-0.08 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.086,-0.211,0.029 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.107,-0.211,0.012 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.019,-0.168,0.181 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.132,-0.052,0.294 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.437,0.053,0.714 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.117,-0.014,0.233 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.281,0.162,0.385 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.281,0.162,0.385 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.284,0.14,0.401 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.647,-0.251 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.553,-0.181 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.523,-0.172 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.311,-0.49,-0.159 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.565,-0.192 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.23,-0.383,-0.111 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.254,-0.434,-0.109 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.111,-0.229,-0.029 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.017,-0.112,0.159 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.383,-0.044,0.694 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.133,-0.304,0.014 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.186,0.095,0.268 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.186,0.095,0.268 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.189,0.096,0.275 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.679,-1.026,-0.381 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.773,-0.299 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.54,-0.831,-0.293 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.365,-0.608,-0.165 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.432,0.011 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.256,-0.252,0.638 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.392,-0.627,-0.194 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.228,-0.365,-0.105 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.061 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.679,-1.026,-0.381 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.773,-0.299 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.54,-0.831,-0.293 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.365,-0.608,-0.165 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.432,0.011 -Naive,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.256,-0.252,0.638 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.392,-0.627,-0.194 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.228,-0.365,-0.105 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.061 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.765,-1.118,-0.476 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.977,-0.407 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-0.937,-0.391 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.911,-0.385 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.687,-1.076,-0.389 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.518,-0.75,-0.322 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.547,-0.824,-0.314 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.371,-0.559,-0.206 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.212,-0.472,0.024 -Drift,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.257,-0.236,0.636 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.398,-0.669,-0.163 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.234,-0.379,-0.107 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.004,-0.065,0.058 -Drift,Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.004,-0.065,0.058 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 57b65d5643da627470c5fa373f7e3cf2328e6395..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.079,0.01,0.153 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.078,-0.026,0.172 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.036,-0.025,0.098 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,0.008,0.183 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.205,0.042,0.342 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.16,0.091,0.233 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.129,0.027,0.216 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.164,0.033,0.263 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.252,0.076,0.401 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.377 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.27,0.125,0.39 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.33,0.175,0.45 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.33,0.175,0.45 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.34,0.195,0.456 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.086,-0.181,-0.01 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.047,0.039 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.047,-0.172,0.047 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.024,-0.025,0.068 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,-0.009,0.28 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.088,0.031,0.14 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.054,-0.002,0.105 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.092,-0.002,0.161 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.188,0.025,0.349 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.211,0.096,0.313 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.207,0.08,0.327 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.141,0.389 -TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.141,0.389 -TiRex,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.283,0.156,0.394 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.085,-0.208,0.026 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.041,0.045 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.046,-0.183,0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.025,-0.018,0.07 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.138,-0.021,0.285 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.089,0.007,0.161 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.055,-0.013,0.117 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.093,0.028,0.144 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.189,0.018,0.35 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.212,0.092,0.312 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.208,0.092,0.326 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.383 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.383 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.284,0.162,0.394 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.037,-0.108,0.024 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.045,-0.05,0.147 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.044,-0.06,0.154 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.068,-0.029,0.172 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.176,0.009,0.315 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.129,0.034,0.228 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.097,-0.023,0.211 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.133,0.027,0.235 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.225,0.045,0.374 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.246,0.126,0.342 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.243,0.106,0.362 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.306,0.156,0.418 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.306,0.156,0.418 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.315,0.168,0.437 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.112,-0.225,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.024,-0.073,0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.025,-0.075,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.073,-0.208,0.028 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,-0.03,0.257 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.066,0.005,0.131 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.032,-0.033,0.1 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.07,0.007,0.125 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.168,0.007,0.325 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.192,0.082,0.289 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.188,0.071,0.302 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.255,0.129,0.366 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.255,0.129,0.366 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.266,0.142,0.372 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.258,-0.521,-0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.158,-0.389,0.009 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.16,-0.399,0.02 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.213,-0.459,-0.009 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.346,0.029 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.057,-0.228,0.078 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.095,-0.28,0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.052,-0.265,0.121 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.059,0.01,0.119 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.086,-0.015,0.202 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.081,0.016,0.167 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.157,0.048,0.277 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.157,0.048,0.277 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.169,0.092,0.247 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.191,-0.305,-0.1 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.096,-0.162,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.097,-0.192,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.148,-0.295,-0.035 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.071,-0.15,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.054,-0.085,0.186 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.037,-0.109,0.027 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.005,-0.124,0.108 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.11,-0.051,0.257 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.135,0.04,0.231 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.131,0.002,0.237 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.203,0.059,0.321 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.203,0.059,0.321 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.214,0.085,0.322 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.149,-0.276,-0.028 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.058,-0.117,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.059,-0.133,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.108,-0.267,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.033,-0.111,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.087,-0.049,0.219 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.035,-0.028,0.098 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.04,-0.075,0.129 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.141,-0.014,0.287 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.165,0.035,0.283 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.161,0.04,0.278 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.231,0.095,0.358 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.231,0.095,0.358 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.242,0.121,0.352 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.196,-0.356,-0.034 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.102,-0.192,0.002 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.103,-0.168,-0.029 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.154,-0.307,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.076,-0.143,-0.007 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.049,-0.137,0.209 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.005,-0.121,0.11 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.042,-0.148,0.07 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.105,-0.087,0.272 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.131,-0.011,0.246 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.127,-0.006,0.254 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.199,0.069,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.199,0.069,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.21,0.069,0.34 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.337,-0.668,-0.083 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.231,-0.536,-0.025 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.233,-0.539,-0.018 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.29,-0.597,-0.047 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.202,-0.482,-0.007 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.063,-0.134,-0.01 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.123,-0.345,0.049 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.164,-0.403,0.014 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.118,-0.373,0.08 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.028,-0.117,0.166 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.024,-0.083,0.123 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.104,-0.022,0.236 -AutoETS,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.104,-0.022,0.236 -AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.117,0.025,0.207 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.604,-0.186 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.267,-0.455,-0.106 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.268,-0.454,-0.101 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.327,-0.521,-0.144 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.237,-0.407,-0.089 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.094,-0.254,0.015 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.156,-0.3,-0.041 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.198,-0.394,-0.036 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.15,-0.326,0.011 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.029,-0.199,0.105 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.005,-0.106,0.067 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.078,-0.04,0.162 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.078,-0.04,0.162 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.091,-0.023,0.183 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.37,-0.64,-0.144 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.261,-0.485,-0.087 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.262,-0.483,-0.101 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.321,-0.569,-0.119 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.231,-0.433,-0.076 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.089,-0.2,-0.016 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.15,-0.311,-0.002 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.193,-0.385,-0.041 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.145,-0.341,0.006 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.024,-0.14,0.077 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.005,-0.072,0.096 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.083,0.013,0.148 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.083,0.013,0.148 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.096,0.044,0.148 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.493,-0.817,-0.213 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.375,-0.636,-0.164 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.621,-0.186 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.44,-0.719,-0.185 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.342,-0.578,-0.148 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.187,-0.383,-0.051 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.254,-0.474,-0.063 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.3,-0.559,-0.105 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.248,-0.45,-0.074 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.116,-0.309,0.022 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.193,0.039 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.09,-0.174,-0.013 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.014,-0.061,0.08 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.493,-0.817,-0.213 -Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.375,-0.636,-0.164 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.621,-0.186 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.44,-0.719,-0.185 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.342,-0.578,-0.148 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.187,-0.383,-0.051 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.254,-0.474,-0.063 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.3,-0.559,-0.105 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.248,-0.45,-0.074 -Naive,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.116,-0.309,0.022 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.193,0.039 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.09,-0.174,-0.013 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.014,-0.061,0.08 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.514,-0.837,-0.243 -Drift,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.394,-0.65,-0.185 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.396,-0.65,-0.194 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.46,-0.777,-0.203 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.362,-0.593,-0.165 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.204,-0.328,-0.102 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.272,-0.474,-0.093 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.319,-0.542,-0.138 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.266,-0.515,-0.074 -Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.132,-0.26,-0.025 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.101,-0.224,0.022 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.106,-0.174,-0.046 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.014,-0.087,0.057 -Drift,Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.014,-0.087,0.057 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 2cc1218c6177acc4694f642de538a7efa6cb184d..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,-0.013,0.155 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.09,0.029,0.154 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.094,0.007,0.17 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.032,-0.019,0.085 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.135,0.041,0.217 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.158,0.087,0.23 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.254,0.121,0.374 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.223,0.102,0.311 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.306,0.193,0.402 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.583,0.277,0.786 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.334,0.21,0.443 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.471,0.345,0.573 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.183,0.013 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.013,0.055 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.022,-0.021,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.045,-0.165,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.066,0.003,0.129 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.09,0.009,0.166 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.194,0.052,0.328 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.16,0.096,0.212 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.25,0.13,0.351 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.552,0.23,0.773 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.281,0.166,0.396 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.429,0.318,0.531 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.099,-0.182,-0.03 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.058,0.013 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.004,-0.049,0.05 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.064,-0.173,0.025 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.049,-0.016,0.111 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.134 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.18,0.039,0.314 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.145,0.058,0.21 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.237,0.118,0.336 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.546,0.218,0.771 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.157,0.384 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 -TiRex,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 -TiRex,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.418,0.302,0.522 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.104,-0.205,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.022,-0.074,0.02 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.004,-0.052,0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.069,-0.189,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.045,-0.019,0.121 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.07,0.004,0.14 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.176,0.046,0.302 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.142,0.079,0.197 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.233,0.12,0.33 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.547,0.218,0.773 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.265,0.158,0.37 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.311,0.512 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.033,-0.093,0.019 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.043,-0.05,0.142 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.06,-0.026,0.148 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.064,-0.027,0.159 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.106,-0.008,0.214 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.13,0.035,0.223 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.229,0.083,0.352 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.197,0.086,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.283,0.174,0.367 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.57,0.25,0.783 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.312,0.194,0.414 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.452,0.325,0.553 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.452,0.325,0.553 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.453,0.326,0.558 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.156,-0.277,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.07,-0.148,-0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.051,-0.125,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.047,-0.138,0.018 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.119,-0.272,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.026,-0.034,0.083 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,0.008,0.263 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,-0.014,0.191 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.197,0.061,0.317 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.528,0.182,0.766 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.231,0.116,0.341 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.387,0.259,0.495 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.387,0.259,0.495 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.388,0.271,0.491 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.187,-0.299,-0.095 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.099,-0.199,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.154,-0.012 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.075,-0.162,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.149,-0.287,-0.036 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.027,-0.091,0.033 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.114,0.007,0.225 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.077,-0.049,0.18 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.176,0.076,0.271 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.518,0.172,0.758 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.21,0.105,0.308 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.475 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.475 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.372,0.261,0.465 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.34,-0.597,-0.138 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.241,-0.488,-0.055 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.219,-0.459,-0.041 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.214,-0.433,-0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.297,-0.543,-0.09 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.159,-0.358,-0.008 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.129,-0.291,-0.007 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.042,-0.256,0.132 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.07,-0.035,0.195 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.467,0.051,0.734 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.108,0.041,0.196 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.169,0.395 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.169,0.395 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.291,0.192,0.377 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.286,-0.452,-0.114 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.191,-0.269,-0.106 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.17,-0.266,-0.062 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.165,-0.245,-0.086 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.245,-0.41,-0.094 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.113,-0.236,0.014 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.084,-0.22,0.047 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.04,-0.152,0.204 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.107,-0.056,0.237 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.475,0.09,0.736 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.144,0.008,0.266 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.318,0.194,0.423 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.318,0.194,0.423 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.319,0.181,0.442 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.44,-0.673,-0.239 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.334,-0.542,-0.149 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.31,-0.505,-0.134 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.304,-0.493,-0.136 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.394,-0.58,-0.21 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.246,-0.465,-0.065 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.213,-0.372,-0.082 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.075,-0.242,0.034 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.12,-0.31,0.053 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.42,-0.002,0.715 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.041,-0.062,0.118 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.236,0.096,0.346 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.236,0.096,0.346 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.238,0.1,0.354 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.4,-3.668,-0.383 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.233,-3.406,-0.299 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-1.201,-3.366,-0.279 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.206,-3.408,-0.279 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.326,-3.6,-0.333 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.121,-3.271,-0.223 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.074,-3.125,-0.207 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.877,-2.759,-0.053 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.903,-2.791,-0.099 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.724,-2.513,0.002 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.694,-2.439,0.032 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.529,0.882,-0.385,-1.856,0.2 -AutoETS,Naive,0.706,0.529,0.882,-0.385,-1.856,0.2 -AutoETS,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.39,-1.866,0.187 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.503,-0.796,-0.266 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.391,-0.657,-0.2 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.624,-0.186 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.361,-0.587,-0.187 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.454,-0.706,-0.24 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.3,-0.517,-0.131 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.266,-0.446,-0.117 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.121,-0.244,-0.043 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.168,-0.362,-0.008 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.043,-0.134,0.059 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.41,-0.033,0.709 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.203,0.105,0.29 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.203,0.105,0.29 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.205,0.11,0.297 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.825,-1.236,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.631,-0.979,-0.35 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.588,-0.905,-0.322 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.653,-0.204 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.465,-0.735,-0.241 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.309,-0.53,-0.106 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.471,0.278,-0.25,0.65 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.255,-0.407,-0.117 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.003,-0.067,0.061 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 -Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.825,-1.236,-0.481 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.631,-0.979,-0.35 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.588,-0.905,-0.322 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.653,-0.204 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.465,-0.735,-0.241 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.309,-0.53,-0.106 -Naive,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.471,0.278,-0.25,0.65 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.255,-0.407,-0.117 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.003,-0.067,0.061 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.89,-1.34,-0.527 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.75,-1.131,-0.465 -Drift,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.719,-1.091,-0.433 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-1.05,-0.451 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.829,-1.263,-0.484 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.635,-0.965,-0.372 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.592,-0.871,-0.352 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.41,-0.606,-0.237 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.469,-0.793,-0.221 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.312,-0.548,-0.111 -Drift,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.28,-0.23,0.651 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.258,-0.422,-0.124 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.003,-0.065,0.063 -Drift,Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.003,-0.065,0.063 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index f2a83f0cc2b818ee876260cffaaee8f3edd0522d..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.07142857142857,35.49604819631662,0.0,0.8031324525807175,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,76.89285714285712,30.012261671412087,0.0,0.22657166035714288,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.07142857142857,30.197590695974842,0.0,1.8920524236607146,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.85714285714285,28.213885409107164,0.0,22.06562094568182,0.08,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,61.21428571428572,27.25905867510979,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.785714285714285,26.51514785224567,0.0,0.24851168673039045,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.67857142857142,27.649834806479856,0.0,88.93563502960615,0.0,2.0 -Sundial-Base,53.39285714285714,24.746214191232585,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,48.535714285714285,15.654207763455553,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,36.67857142857143,11.239602667684679,0.0,19.52332778642857,0.0,10.0 -AutoTheta,34.92857142857142,10.9884701559679,0.0,3.250292683443853,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,33.25,2.258981670108584,0.0,3.4683364387499998,0.0,3.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.96428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.455576268872549,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.321428571428573,-16.673948793089565,0.0,0.45289251607142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,15.357142857142856,-18.13920384837251,0.0,0.451296885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index e086150fde37995292a14568e0bea7a3732c4a97..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.42857142857143,47.28056105322771,0.0,0.8031324525807175,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.67857142857142,42.57610775202675,0.0,0.22657166035714288,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.57142857142858,42.20062128325953,0.0,1.8920524236607146,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.21428571428571,40.7460359139889,0.0,22.06562094568182,0.08,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.42857142857143,38.892961600022936,0.0,0.24851168673039045,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.42857142857143,39.332013785815214,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.28,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.96428571428573,39.58671179038912,0.0,88.93563502960615,0.0,2.0 -Sundial-Base,45.964285714285715,33.42287717226134,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,45.53571428571429,20.161731427800046,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,40.67857142857143,20.561948549632326,0.0,19.52332778642857,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,33.67857142857143,-26.818526760288375,0.0,3.4683364387499998,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,27.142857142857142,5.457380397818312,0.0,3.250292683443853,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.178571428571423,0.0,0.0,0.455576268872549,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.821428571428573,-45.398988807164976,0.0,0.45289251607142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.285714285714286,-45.77585379444895,0.0,0.451296885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 790fe98cb7e23af6ac639609b331647605276690..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.92857142857142,39.40980595628945,0.0,0.8031324525807175,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.28571428571428,33.719263075740194,0.0,1.8920524236607146,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,75.25000000000001,33.56017122067458,0.0,0.22657166035714288,0.01,0.0 -Toto-1.0,67.64285714285717,31.488756179777678,0.0,22.06562094568182,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,64.32142857142857,33.36123166513091,0.0,88.93563502960615,0.0,2.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.14285714285715,30.651048841637785,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.142857142857146,29.770064235526473,0.0,0.24851168673039045,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,51.24999999999999,27.263435775595426,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,47.32142857142856,17.693885547849597,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,34.96428571428571,13.271687847205381,0.0,19.52332778642857,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,34.60714285714286,4.328689341465408,0.0,3.4683364387499998,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,32.0,13.794755020224814,0.0,3.250292683443853,0.0,0.0 -Naive,22.749999999999996,-6.11148881462471,0.0,0.45289251607142855,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.249999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.455576268872549,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.142857142857146,-8.604851625817744,0.0,0.451296885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 95fd7dadac7b669317e1df1ca638bfc7eb9a28e0..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.14285714285714,51.51952213752647,0.0,0.8031324525807175,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.60714285714286,46.6655039781259,0.0,0.22657166035714288,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.28571428571429,46.72558173490076,0.0,1.8920524236607146,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.85714285714285,45.00088243993733,0.0,22.06562094568182,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.10714285714286,45.822378843833036,0.0,88.93563502960615,0.0,2.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.21428571428571,43.864523387242194,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.85714285714286,43.187343947848866,0.0,0.24851168673039045,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.035714285714285,37.43731640370259,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.17857142857143,21.795752415252334,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,40.10714285714287,23.401617100945593,0.0,19.52332778642857,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,31.392857142857146,-27.026777935471568,0.0,3.4683364387499998,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,26.714285714285708,7.846425960422055,0.0,3.250292683443853,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.464285714285708,0.0,0.0,0.455576268872549,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.750000000000002,-39.121433468308894,0.0,0.45289251607142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.285714285714288,-40.05851008470427,0.0,0.451296885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 70886f6ef01b27f227b1e22898d2d1917aa13f84..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.078,0.052,0.108 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.076,0.048,0.103 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.101,0.073,0.133 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.113,0.086,0.141 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.122,0.096,0.15 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.77,0.92,0.108,0.08,0.14 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.143,0.113,0.172 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.235,0.19,0.277 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.273,0.23,0.315 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.275,0.236,0.316 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.34,0.28,0.401 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.355,0.318,0.393 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.447,0.388,0.505 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.454,0.392,0.513 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.085,-0.121,-0.055 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.485,0.385,0.585,-0.003,-0.019,0.014 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.52,0.71,0.025,0.003,0.046 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.685,0.845,0.038,0.021,0.055 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.048,0.029,0.067 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.033,-0.01,0.074 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.805,0.72,0.88,0.07,0.036,0.104 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.17,0.132,0.21 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.211,0.175,0.253 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.214,0.18,0.249 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.284,0.225,0.345 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.3,0.264,0.339 -TiRex,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.4,0.344,0.457 -TiRex,Drift,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.408,0.347,0.462 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.082,-0.115,-0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.515,0.415,0.615,0.003,-0.014,0.019 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.485,0.66,0.028,0.005,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.71,0.625,0.795,0.04,0.021,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.625,0.79,0.05,0.029,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.67,0.58,0.77,0.035,-0.011,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.805,0.73,0.88,0.072,0.04,0.105 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.172,0.126,0.217 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.214,0.175,0.257 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.216,0.177,0.255 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.286,0.228,0.347 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.302,0.267,0.342 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.402,0.341,0.458 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.409,0.345,0.469 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.113,-0.154,-0.079 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.385,0.29,0.48,-0.026,-0.048,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.34,0.515,-0.028,-0.054,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.013,-0.008,0.034 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.46,0.645,0.023,-0.005,0.048 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.008,-0.043,0.055 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.675,0.585,0.765,0.046,0.007,0.088 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.149,0.102,0.193 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.191,0.149,0.237 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.194,0.151,0.235 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.266,0.203,0.326 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.282,0.241,0.327 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.94,0.88,0.98,0.385,0.32,0.442 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.94,0.392,0.328,0.451 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.128,-0.165,-0.094 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.315,-0.039,-0.059,-0.021 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.205,0.375,-0.042,-0.064,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.33,0.51,-0.013,-0.036,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.465,0.64,0.01,-0.012,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.43,0.62,-0.005,-0.054,0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.033,-0.004,0.067 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.138,0.09,0.18 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.18,0.138,0.228 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.77,0.91,0.183,0.144,0.223 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.76,0.67,0.83,0.256,0.192,0.32 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.273,0.236,0.314 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.377,0.316,0.433 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.384,0.32,0.441 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.139,-0.177,-0.106 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.05,-0.072,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.21,0.375,-0.053,-0.077,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.355,0.54,-0.024,-0.051,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.36,0.535,-0.01,-0.033,0.012 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.42,0.61,-0.016,-0.062,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.605,0.51,0.695,0.024,-0.014,0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.129,0.084,0.174 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.84,0.76,0.9,0.172,0.132,0.215 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.174,0.137,0.212 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.248,0.184,0.315 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.265,0.226,0.304 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.37,0.315,0.423 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.378,0.319,0.435 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.08,0.23,-0.122,-0.163,-0.087 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.034,-0.08,0.01 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.33,0.23,0.42,-0.036,-0.088,0.011 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.33,0.51,-0.008,-0.058,0.041 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.48,0.38,0.57,0.005,-0.039,0.051 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.48,0.39,0.58,0.015,-0.026,0.058 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.53,0.43,0.63,0.039,-0.001,0.078 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.645,0.545,0.735,0.142,0.089,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.185,0.133,0.241 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.187,0.14,0.235 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.26,0.183,0.332 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.855,0.96,0.276,0.231,0.321 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.38,0.318,0.442 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.87,0.8,0.94,0.388,0.321,0.45 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.167,-0.207,-0.128 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.195,0.12,0.28,-0.075,-0.115,-0.037 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.195,0.12,0.27,-0.078,-0.117,-0.042 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.235,0.415,-0.048,-0.097,-0.007 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.035,-0.072,0.004 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.395,0.305,0.49,-0.024,-0.061,0.014 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.47,0.37,0.57,-0.04,-0.085,0.001 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.66,0.56,0.76,0.108,0.051,0.16 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.152,0.098,0.203 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.155,0.109,0.199 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.71,0.61,0.8,0.23,0.152,0.3 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.247,0.206,0.288 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.88,0.8,0.94,0.355,0.289,0.417 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.363,0.291,0.428 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.308,-0.383,-0.234 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.205,-0.265,-0.152 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.208,-0.277,-0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.175,-0.239,-0.113 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.16,-0.219,-0.099 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.148,-0.211,-0.091 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.355,0.265,0.455,-0.166,-0.235,-0.097 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.34,0.24,0.44,-0.121,-0.19,-0.054 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.64,0.545,0.73,0.05,0.02,0.09 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.052,0.025,0.082 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.795,0.72,0.87,0.137,0.081,0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.725,0.865,0.157,0.116,0.203 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.277,0.218,0.346 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.286,0.225,0.35 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.376,-0.459,-0.298 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.268,-0.339,-0.212 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.272,-0.346,-0.212 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.236,-0.311,-0.175 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.22,-0.295,-0.16 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.16,0.1,0.24,-0.208,-0.274,-0.152 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.227,-0.317,-0.153 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.179,-0.254,-0.108 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.36,0.27,0.455,-0.052,-0.099,-0.02 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.003,-0.039,0.039 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.595,0.5,0.69,0.092,0.024,0.162 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.665,0.83,0.112,0.068,0.161 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.239,0.169,0.312 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.249,0.174,0.324 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.38,-0.462,-0.308 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.272,-0.332,-0.22 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.275,-0.343,-0.215 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.24,-0.307,-0.178 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.09,0.23,-0.224,-0.287,-0.168 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.211,-0.269,-0.159 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.23,-0.307,-0.163 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.183,-0.249,-0.122 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.055,-0.09,-0.025 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.003,-0.041,0.037 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.089,0.026,0.155 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.11,0.069,0.149 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.237,0.181,0.301 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.247,0.189,0.31 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.515,-0.671,-0.39 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.397,-0.526,-0.291 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.4,-0.531,-0.295 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.362,-0.484,-0.254 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.24,0.17,0.33,-0.344,-0.471,-0.237 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.33,-0.459,-0.225 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.351,-0.498,-0.225 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.2,0.39,-0.299,-0.428,-0.179 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.13,0.28,-0.159,-0.241,-0.088 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.405,0.31,0.5,-0.101,-0.194,-0.024 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.098,-0.183,-0.027 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.635,0.54,0.72,0.023,-0.071,0.103 -AutoETS,Naive,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.162,0.086,0.251 -AutoETS,Drift,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.173,0.098,0.258 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.55,-0.648,-0.466 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.429,-0.512,-0.359 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.433,-0.52,-0.365 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.393,-0.485,-0.318 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.375,-0.458,-0.308 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.361,-0.437,-0.293 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.09,0.04,0.145,-0.382,-0.472,-0.301 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.329,-0.405,-0.259 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.135,0.275,-0.186,-0.255,-0.131 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.335,-0.127,-0.191,-0.073 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.123,-0.176,-0.074 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.365,0.28,0.46,-0.023,-0.115,0.067 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.575,0.48,0.665,0.143,0.065,0.223 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.7,0.6,0.79,0.154,0.067,0.238 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.809,-1.021,-0.634 -Naive,TiRex,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.667,-0.842,-0.525 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.671,-0.844,-0.518 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.06,0.02,0.12,-0.625,-0.792,-0.471 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.604,-0.764,-0.463 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.588,-0.733,-0.46 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.613,-0.791,-0.467 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.2,-0.55,-0.716,-0.407 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.383,-0.529,-0.279 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.314,-0.454,-0.204 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.311,-0.432,-0.222 -Naive,AutoETS,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.194,-0.336,-0.094 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.425,0.335,0.52,-0.167,-0.288,-0.069 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.012,-0.012,0.035 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.832,-1.053,-0.644 -Drift,TiRex,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.688,-0.859,-0.531 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.692,-0.883,-0.526 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.11,0.06,0.18,-0.646,-0.821,-0.487 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.624,-0.789,-0.47 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.608,-0.77,-0.468 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.13,0.06,0.2,-0.633,-0.819,-0.473 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.57,-0.747,-0.411 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.401,-0.539,-0.291 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.331,-0.479,-0.21 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.327,-0.45,-0.233 -Drift,AutoETS,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.209,-0.347,-0.109 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.21,0.4,-0.181,-0.312,-0.071 -Drift,Naive,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.013,-0.036,0.012 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 6730d66be75dd568f6296bcbc07fc32aafe4add8..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.082,0.056,0.111 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.088,0.059,0.115 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.11,0.081,0.141 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.131,0.103,0.16 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.137,0.11,0.168 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.127,0.097,0.159 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.208,0.18,0.236 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.34,0.288,0.386 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.38 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.562,0.466,0.655 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.442,0.387,0.495 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.427,0.521 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.637,0.583,0.684 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.638,0.581,0.687 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.089,-0.125,-0.06 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.565,0.465,0.66,0.006,-0.01,0.022 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.031,0.009,0.052 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.825,0.75,0.895,0.053,0.036,0.072 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.835,0.76,0.905,0.06,0.042,0.08 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.049,0.005,0.092 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.905,0.85,0.96,0.137,0.107,0.169 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.281,0.232,0.328 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.277,0.237,0.32 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.524,0.417,0.626 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.393,0.339,0.445 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.379,0.479 -TiRex,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.605,0.547,0.653 -TiRex,Drift,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.606,0.545,0.655 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.096,-0.13,-0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.435,0.34,0.535,-0.007,-0.023,0.01 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.47,0.66,0.025,0.001,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.047,0.026,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.72,0.635,0.8,0.054,0.033,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.043,-0.005,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.925,0.875,0.97,0.132,0.103,0.161 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.276,0.222,0.327 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.272,0.232,0.319 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.521,0.413,0.624 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.389,0.331,0.446 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.422,0.375,0.474 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.602,0.543,0.65 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.604,0.542,0.653 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.124,-0.164,-0.089 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.032,-0.054,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.44,0.34,0.53,-0.025,-0.051,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.51,0.685,0.023,0.002,0.045 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.57,0.475,0.655,0.03,0.001,0.055 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.019,-0.033,0.07 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.825,0.745,0.895,0.11,0.074,0.147 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.258,0.2,0.309 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.254,0.207,0.305 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.51,0.402,0.614 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.373,0.31,0.431 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.407,0.354,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.592,0.532,0.642 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.594,0.53,0.645 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.151,-0.19,-0.115 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.175,0.105,0.25,-0.056,-0.077,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.05,-0.074,-0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.315,0.49,-0.024,-0.047,-0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.54,0.455,0.625,0.007,-0.016,0.029 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.004,-0.055,0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.855,0.78,0.92,0.089,0.054,0.123 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.24,0.187,0.292 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.236,0.189,0.286 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.5,0.382,0.609 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.88,0.81,0.93,0.358,0.299,0.415 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.393,0.343,0.448 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.583,0.523,0.634 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.94,0.88,0.98,0.584,0.519,0.636 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.159,-0.201,-0.123 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.165,0.095,0.24,-0.064,-0.088,-0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.28,0.2,0.365,-0.057,-0.081,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.345,0.525,-0.031,-0.059,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.46,0.375,0.545,-0.007,-0.03,0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.43,0.63,-0.011,-0.059,0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.815,0.74,0.89,0.082,0.045,0.116 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.235,0.184,0.284 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.92,0.231,0.188,0.277 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.496,0.379,0.605 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.354,0.3,0.409 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.389,0.342,0.441 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.58,0.524,0.628 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.581,0.52,0.63 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.146,-0.189,-0.108 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.052,-0.101,-0.005 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.045,-0.095,0.005 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.02,-0.076,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.004,-0.044,0.052 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.47,0.37,0.57,0.011,-0.032,0.055 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.093,0.05,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.735,0.645,0.815,0.243,0.19,0.297 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.239,0.189,0.292 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.503,0.387,0.611 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.361,0.302,0.422 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.396,0.346,0.447 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.584,0.526,0.636 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.586,0.521,0.639 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.263,-0.309,-0.219 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.095,0.04,0.15,-0.159,-0.203,-0.119 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.075,0.03,0.125,-0.152,-0.191,-0.115 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.175,0.105,0.255,-0.124,-0.172,-0.079 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.145,0.08,0.22,-0.097,-0.14,-0.057 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.185,0.11,0.26,-0.09,-0.132,-0.047 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.102,-0.155,-0.053 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.166,0.096,0.23 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.162,0.102,0.22 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.453,0.323,0.576 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.296,0.226,0.364 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.334,0.281,0.392 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.84,0.96,0.542,0.473,0.598 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.543,0.47,0.602 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.514,-0.63,-0.404 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.39,-0.488,-0.302 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.381,-0.485,-0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.347,-0.448,-0.25 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.316,-0.412,-0.23 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.22,0.15,0.31,-0.307,-0.396,-0.226 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.265,0.185,0.355,-0.322,-0.423,-0.234 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.199,-0.298,-0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.51,0.42,0.605,-0.005,-0.049,0.041 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.365,0.22,0.501 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.156,0.108,0.208 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.725,0.87,0.202,0.148,0.257 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.451,0.395,0.503 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.452,0.394,0.506 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.507,-0.612,-0.409 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.383,-0.47,-0.311 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.374,-0.468,-0.301 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.341,-0.439,-0.261 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.309,-0.401,-0.233 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.08,0.2,-0.3,-0.383,-0.232 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.315,-0.412,-0.233 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.193,-0.282,-0.114 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.49,0.395,0.58,0.005,-0.043,0.047 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.695,0.615,0.785,0.359,0.211,0.496 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.16,0.099,0.216 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.82,0.935,0.206,0.154,0.263 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.454,0.388,0.512 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.455,0.384,0.516 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-1.285,-1.897,-0.873 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.102,-1.673,-0.714 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.087,-1.662,-0.703 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-1.041,-1.59,-0.672 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.999,-1.559,-0.619 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.983,-1.531,-0.609 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.34,-1.011,-1.572,-0.632 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.828,-1.359,-0.478 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.575,-1.003,-0.282 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.305,0.215,0.385,-0.56,-0.983,-0.268 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.59,0.49,0.69,-0.345,-0.709,-0.081 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.635,0.545,0.725,-0.268,-0.644,-0.013 -AutoETS,Naive,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.104,-0.173,0.297 -AutoETS,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.103,-0.161,0.297 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.793,-0.98,-0.63 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.646,-0.803,-0.513 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.636,-0.805,-0.495 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.596,-0.759,-0.449 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.12,0.07,0.19,-0.558,-0.711,-0.427 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.547,-0.691,-0.429 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.565,-0.731,-0.433 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.42,-0.572,-0.292 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.12,0.06,0.18,-0.184,-0.263,-0.121 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.19,-0.276,-0.11 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.41,0.31,0.51,0.257,0.075,0.415 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.055,-0.038,0.135 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.83,0.75,0.89,0.35,0.293,0.403 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.351,0.288,0.408 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.087,-0.745 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-0.919,-0.611 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.73,-0.902,-0.6 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.688,-0.867,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.648,-0.813,-0.522 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.636,-0.788,-0.52 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.655,-0.809,-0.529 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.502,-0.645,-0.39 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.13,0.275,-0.253,-0.347,-0.174 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.12,0.065,0.18,-0.259,-0.356,-0.182 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.365,0.275,0.455,0.211,0.013,0.392 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.058,-0.156,0.037 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.715,0.64,0.785,0.312,0.229,0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.314,0.222,0.396 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.758,-2.16,-1.399 -Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.532,-1.88,-1.209 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.516,-1.859,-1.189 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.454,-1.793,-1.135 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.397,-1.731,-1.095 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.379,-1.689,-1.099 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.04,0.01,0.08,-1.407,-1.747,-1.111 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.04,0.16,-1.184,-1.49,-0.898 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.821,-1.014,-0.653 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.83,-1.05,-0.635 -Naive,AutoETS,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.116,-0.422,0.148 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.17,0.11,0.25,-0.538,-0.676,-0.414 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.285,0.215,0.36,-0.454,-0.628,-0.298 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.003,-0.02,0.022 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.765,-2.19,-1.384 -Drift,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.539,-1.898,-1.199 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.522,-1.883,-1.184 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-1.46,-1.816,-1.126 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.12,-1.403,-1.749,-1.079 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.386,-1.705,-1.084 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.413,-1.773,-1.088 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.16,0.09,0.24,-1.19,-1.513,-0.886 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.826,-1.023,-0.65 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.835,-1.064,-0.623 -Drift,AutoETS,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.115,-0.423,0.139 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.13,0.29,-0.542,-0.69,-0.404 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.458,-0.656,-0.285 -Drift,Naive,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.003,-0.023,0.02 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 901599a21956d305748b11cf1474b027525e8e4c..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.086,0.054,0.118 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.088,0.057,0.12 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.116,0.082,0.153 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.091,0.058,0.121 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.126,0.096,0.159 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.137,0.105,0.171 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.167,0.134,0.2 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.264,0.21,0.312 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.301,0.251,0.35 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.367,0.293,0.433 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.297,0.247,0.344 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.429,0.373,0.482 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.394,0.349,0.44 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.442,0.383,0.498 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.32,0.24,0.41,-0.094,-0.133,-0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.485,0.39,0.58,0.002,-0.014,0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.53,0.445,0.62,0.033,0.006,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.005,-0.04,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.615,0.78,0.044,0.019,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.73,0.65,0.81,0.056,0.034,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.825,0.75,0.9,0.089,0.052,0.125 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.195,0.146,0.244 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.91,0.85,0.97,0.236,0.189,0.285 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.307,0.237,0.376 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.231,0.186,0.275 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.375,0.321,0.43 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.337,0.293,0.386 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.39,0.336,0.445 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.097,-0.137,-0.06 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.515,0.42,0.61,-0.002,-0.02,0.014 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.53,0.72,0.03,0.007,0.051 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.003,-0.045,0.052 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.695,0.615,0.79,0.042,0.023,0.065 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.745,0.66,0.83,0.054,0.032,0.077 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.775,0.695,0.85,0.087,0.048,0.126 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.82,0.73,0.89,0.193,0.146,0.242 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.234,0.189,0.282 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.306,0.233,0.374 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.229,0.187,0.272 -TiRex,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.374,0.321,0.429 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.384 -TiRex,Drift,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.388,0.335,0.443 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.131,-0.18,-0.089 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.47,0.38,0.555,-0.034,-0.064,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.28,0.47,-0.031,-0.054,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.47,0.65,-0.028,-0.083,0.024 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.5,0.69,0.012,-0.012,0.036 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.505,0.685,0.024,-0.004,0.052 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.575,0.75,0.058,0.011,0.103 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.69,0.59,0.78,0.168,0.115,0.219 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.21,0.157,0.261 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.284,0.208,0.353 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.205,0.158,0.252 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.354,0.296,0.408 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.315,0.266,0.365 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.83,0.96,0.369,0.315,0.424 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.1,-0.138,-0.061 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.005,-0.054,0.039 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.003,-0.055,0.043 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.35,0.53,0.027,-0.024,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.039,-0.012,0.085 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.051,0.006,0.094 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.66,0.56,0.75,0.084,0.041,0.126 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.695,0.855,0.19,0.134,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.232,0.178,0.283 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.303,0.23,0.382 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.84,0.76,0.9,0.227,0.18,0.277 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.372,0.316,0.432 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.334,0.29,0.379 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.386,0.328,0.447 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.145,-0.189,-0.106 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.22,0.385,-0.046,-0.075,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.305,0.21,0.385,-0.044,-0.069,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.31,0.5,-0.012,-0.038,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.48,0.38,0.58,-0.041,-0.093,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.48,0.645,0.013,-0.011,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.57,0.76,0.047,0.005,0.087 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.157,0.105,0.208 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.2,0.148,0.254 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.275,0.196,0.35 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.196,0.147,0.243 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.346,0.29,0.403 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.307,0.258,0.357 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.361,0.303,0.417 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.159,-0.207,-0.117 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.35,-0.06,-0.086,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.255,0.17,0.34,-0.057,-0.083,-0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.315,0.495,-0.025,-0.055,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.054,-0.104,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.355,0.52,-0.013,-0.038,0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.54,0.73,0.034,-0.006,0.071 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.64,0.82,0.147,0.096,0.198 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.77,0.92,0.19,0.137,0.242 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.266,0.19,0.341 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.185,0.139,0.232 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.338,0.28,0.394 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.298,0.252,0.345 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.353,0.296,0.41 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.2,-0.25,-0.154 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.175,0.1,0.25,-0.097,-0.143,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.225,0.15,0.305,-0.095,-0.144,-0.05 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.335,0.25,0.425,-0.062,-0.115,-0.012 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.34,0.25,0.44,-0.092,-0.144,-0.042 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.335,0.24,0.43,-0.049,-0.095,-0.005 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.365,0.27,0.46,-0.036,-0.076,0.006 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.116,0.05,0.174 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.161,0.097,0.218 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.24,0.149,0.317 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.74,0.64,0.82,0.156,0.099,0.206 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.315,0.248,0.38 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.273,0.225,0.319 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.33,0.261,0.398 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.358,-0.454,-0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.242,-0.322,-0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.18,0.11,0.27,-0.239,-0.319,-0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.31,0.22,0.41,-0.201,-0.28,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.225,0.145,0.305,-0.235,-0.32,-0.155 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.187,-0.263,-0.117 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.26,0.18,0.36,-0.172,-0.246,-0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.132,-0.211,-0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.051,0.02,0.086 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.785,0.7,0.86,0.14,0.071,0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.045,0.009,0.078 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.224,0.169,0.277 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.835,0.77,0.9,0.177,0.138,0.221 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.242,0.192,0.293 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.431,-0.538,-0.335 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.09,0.03,0.15,-0.308,-0.399,-0.234 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.305,-0.393,-0.233 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.266,-0.353,-0.187 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.301,-0.395,-0.217 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.251,-0.341,-0.173 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.23,-0.235,-0.319,-0.159 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.192,-0.278,-0.107 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.054,-0.095,-0.02 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.555,0.46,0.655,0.093,0.015,0.175 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.006,-0.057,0.039 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.183,0.118,0.242 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.735,0.875,0.133,0.09,0.178 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.65,0.83,0.201,0.14,0.261 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.579,-0.764,-0.414 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.09,0.22,-0.443,-0.602,-0.31 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.44,-0.598,-0.303 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.23,0.16,0.32,-0.396,-0.547,-0.263 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.436,-0.617,-0.299 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.38,-0.538,-0.243 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.362,-0.518,-0.235 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.315,-0.464,-0.175 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.215,0.14,0.3,-0.162,-0.264,-0.077 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.445,0.345,0.54,-0.103,-0.212,-0.015 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.47,0.37,0.56,-0.11,-0.214,-0.027 -AutoETS,Naive,0.62,0.53,0.72,0.098,0.018,0.177 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.685,0.585,0.775,0.043,-0.061,0.128 -AutoETS,Drift,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.119,0.042,0.194 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.423,-0.524,-0.328 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.301,-0.38,-0.229 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.297,-0.374,-0.23 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.258,-0.337,-0.188 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.16,0.1,0.24,-0.294,-0.383,-0.22 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.243,-0.32,-0.172 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.227,-0.302,-0.161 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.26,0.18,0.36,-0.185,-0.26,-0.11 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.047,-0.085,-0.009 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.006,-0.041,0.054 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.53,0.44,0.63,0.099,0.026,0.177 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.188,0.138,0.239 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.138,0.099,0.18 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.206,0.158,0.26 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.751,-0.93,-0.594 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.601,-0.753,-0.473 -Naive,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.597,-0.75,-0.473 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.549,-0.689,-0.421 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.592,-0.761,-0.461 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.53,-0.674,-0.408 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.511,-0.649,-0.39 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.459,-0.613,-0.331 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.289,-0.383,-0.203 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.223,-0.319,-0.134 -Naive,AutoETS,0.38,0.28,0.47,-0.109,-0.215,-0.018 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.231,-0.314,-0.161 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.475,0.39,0.565,-0.061,-0.146,0.017 -Naive,Drift,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.023,-0.005,0.048 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.65,-0.787,-0.537 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.509,-0.63,-0.414 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.505,-0.623,-0.408 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.46,-0.575,-0.362 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.501,-0.61,-0.409 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.442,-0.555,-0.347 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.424,-0.527,-0.336 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.375,-0.469,-0.29 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.165,0.1,0.23,-0.215,-0.283,-0.161 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.125,0.265,-0.153,-0.217,-0.099 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.315,0.225,0.415,-0.045,-0.147,0.057 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.16,-0.219,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.525,0.435,0.61,0.058,-0.017,0.127 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.64,0.53,0.73,0.079,-0.001,0.153 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.792,-0.994,-0.621 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.639,-0.801,-0.507 -Drift,TiRex,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.635,-0.796,-0.504 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.04,0.17,-0.585,-0.735,-0.459 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.63,-0.807,-0.488 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.566,-0.715,-0.435 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.546,-0.695,-0.42 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.493,-0.66,-0.354 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.32,-0.415,-0.238 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.35,-0.252,-0.353,-0.163 -Drift,AutoETS,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.135,-0.24,-0.044 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.26,-0.351,-0.188 -Drift,Naive,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.023,-0.051,0.005 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.36,0.27,0.47,-0.086,-0.181,0.001 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index c8b896eb4ab031e575e110c916ecd7ae5c8aee12..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.091,0.058,0.126 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.09,0.059,0.122 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.6,0.79,0.119,0.084,0.156 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.105,0.073,0.134 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.136,0.105,0.17 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.147,0.114,0.18 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.225,0.194,0.255 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.38,0.324,0.431 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.367,0.316,0.416 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.597,0.5,0.684 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.474,0.418,0.529 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.515,0.469,0.559 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.652,0.603,0.693 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.654,0.603,0.697 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.1,-0.144,-0.062 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.555,0.455,0.65,-0.001,-0.02,0.017 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.6,0.77,0.03,0.009,0.05 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.016,-0.033,0.063 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.05,0.03,0.073 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.815,0.735,0.885,0.061,0.039,0.083 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.835,0.95,0.148,0.11,0.185 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.318,0.262,0.374 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.304,0.256,0.352 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.558,0.449,0.655 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.421,0.365,0.479 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.467,0.42,0.515 -TiRex,Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.617,0.565,0.663 -TiRex,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.619,0.567,0.666 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.099,-0.139,-0.063 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.445,0.35,0.545,0.001,-0.017,0.019 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.475,0.655,0.031,0.006,0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.017,-0.031,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.73,0.645,0.81,0.051,0.028,0.076 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.76,0.685,0.835,0.062,0.04,0.085 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.905,0.845,0.96,0.148,0.114,0.183 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.319,0.262,0.376 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.304,0.255,0.357 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.558,0.449,0.655 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.422,0.362,0.483 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.467,0.422,0.518 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.617,0.564,0.664 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.62,0.565,0.667 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.21,0.4,-0.134,-0.185,-0.092 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.23,0.4,-0.031,-0.053,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.44,0.345,0.525,-0.032,-0.061,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.54,0.45,0.63,-0.015,-0.073,0.036 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.02,-0.003,0.044 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.61,0.52,0.695,0.032,0.003,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.121,0.079,0.163 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.297,0.235,0.356 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.282,0.23,0.336 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.545,0.433,0.645 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.403,0.341,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.45,0.397,0.501 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.605,0.55,0.652 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.607,0.551,0.656 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.118,-0.155,-0.078 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.016,-0.067,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.017,-0.066,0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.46,0.37,0.55,0.015,-0.037,0.068 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.46,0.65,0.035,-0.017,0.084 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.52,0.43,0.61,0.046,0.0,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.134,0.09,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.795,0.715,0.875,0.307,0.247,0.365 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.293,0.239,0.348 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.554,0.442,0.654 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.412,0.352,0.471 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.935,0.995,0.458,0.412,0.506 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.611,0.556,0.657 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.98,0.613,0.557,0.661 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.158,-0.205,-0.118 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.053,-0.078,-0.031 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.355,-0.054,-0.082,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.021,-0.046,0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.35,0.54,-0.036,-0.091,0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.505,0.67,0.012,-0.013,0.037 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.865,0.79,0.93,0.103,0.062,0.14 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.282,0.222,0.343 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.267,0.214,0.322 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.537,0.421,0.639 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.391,0.33,0.454 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.439,0.387,0.49 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.597,0.541,0.645 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.599,0.542,0.649 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.172,-0.22,-0.129 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.185,0.115,0.265,-0.065,-0.091,-0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.24,0.165,0.315,-0.066,-0.092,-0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.39,0.305,0.48,-0.033,-0.065,-0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.48,0.39,0.57,-0.049,-0.101,-0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.41,0.33,0.495,-0.012,-0.038,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.785,0.705,0.865,0.092,0.051,0.128 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.274,0.215,0.332 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.258,0.207,0.31 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.531,0.418,0.635 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.384,0.323,0.446 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.432,0.384,0.482 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.592,0.537,0.639 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.594,0.539,0.643 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.29,-0.343,-0.241 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.05,0.165,-0.173,-0.226,-0.124 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.095,0.04,0.155,-0.174,-0.223,-0.129 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.138,-0.195,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.155,-0.212,-0.099 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.135,0.07,0.21,-0.114,-0.163,-0.066 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.215,0.135,0.295,-0.101,-0.147,-0.053 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.2,0.124,0.268 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.73,0.63,0.81,0.183,0.114,0.245 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.486,0.353,0.603 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.321,0.25,0.391 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.374,0.322,0.43 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.55,0.489,0.605 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.553,0.487,0.611 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.613,-0.757,-0.479 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.466,-0.598,-0.355 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.468,-0.603,-0.355 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.422,-0.552,-0.307 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.205,0.125,0.285,-0.443,-0.575,-0.329 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.393,-0.521,-0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.377,-0.496,-0.274 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.25,-0.366,-0.142 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.41,0.6,-0.021,-0.061,0.02 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.755,0.67,0.835,0.38,0.234,0.517 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.151,0.111,0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.835,0.77,0.895,0.218,0.166,0.273 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.438,0.386,0.484 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.442,0.387,0.49 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.58,-0.711,-0.461 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.436,-0.543,-0.345 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.438,-0.556,-0.342 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.393,-0.505,-0.299 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.414,-0.533,-0.315 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.365,-0.476,-0.272 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.348,-0.449,-0.261 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.27,0.19,0.37,-0.224,-0.324,-0.129 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.4,0.59,0.021,-0.021,0.058 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.685,0.59,0.775,0.381,0.235,0.518 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.169,0.119,0.218 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.825,0.93,0.234,0.184,0.287 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.449,0.389,0.499 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.453,0.393,0.505 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.48,-2.169,-0.999 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.261,-1.901,-0.816 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-1.261,-1.898,-0.814 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-1.198,-1.815,-0.764 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.08,0.22,-1.242,-1.889,-0.793 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.158,-1.773,-0.727 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.133,-1.742,-0.717 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.945,-1.517,-0.545 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.245,0.165,0.33,-0.612,-1.072,-0.305 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.315,0.225,0.41,-0.616,-1.074,-0.308 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.57,0.47,0.67,-0.384,-0.762,-0.111 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.625,0.535,0.715,-0.27,-0.651,-0.012 -AutoETS,Naive,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.059,-0.228,0.255 -AutoETS,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.062,-0.223,0.256 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.901,-1.124,-0.718 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.728,-0.919,-0.575 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.73,-0.934,-0.567 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.676,-0.87,-0.517 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.701,-0.889,-0.542 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.642,-0.83,-0.491 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.622,-0.804,-0.477 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.473,-0.641,-0.333 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.13,0.07,0.19,-0.178,-0.24,-0.124 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.203,-0.279,-0.135 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.43,0.33,0.53,0.278,0.1,0.433 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.078,0.007,0.148 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.338,0.277,0.392 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.342,0.277,0.399 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.063,-1.27,-0.883 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-0.875,-1.061,-0.724 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.877,-1.074,-0.729 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.818,-1.003,-0.658 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.005,0.065,-0.846,-1.025,-0.7 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.781,-0.961,-0.632 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.76,-0.929,-0.623 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.598,-0.753,-0.474 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.165,0.105,0.23,-0.279,-0.376,-0.198 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.12,0.07,0.175,-0.306,-0.403,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.375,0.285,0.465,0.213,0.012,0.394 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.085,-0.174,-0.008 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.685,0.61,0.755,0.281,0.208,0.351 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.77,0.69,0.86,0.286,0.205,0.362 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.87,-2.256,-1.52 -Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-1.608,-1.963,-1.301 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.611,-1.972,-1.293 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.53,-1.877,-1.224 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.568,-1.912,-1.254 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.478,-1.816,-1.178 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.449,-1.767,-1.16 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-1.224,-1.535,-0.956 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.779,-0.938,-0.629 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.816,-0.997,-0.636 -Naive,AutoETS,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.063,-0.343,0.186 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.51,-0.644,-0.383 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.315,0.245,0.39,-0.391,-0.54,-0.263 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.007,-0.018,0.028 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.889,-2.297,-1.517 -Drift,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.626,-1.992,-1.31 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.629,-2.005,-1.301 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.547,-1.905,-1.228 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.02,0.1,-1.585,-1.953,-1.257 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.495,-1.849,-1.182 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.465,-1.797,-1.171 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-1.239,-1.572,-0.95 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.791,-0.961,-0.632 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.828,-1.021,-0.649 -Drift,AutoETS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.066,-0.344,0.183 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.52,-0.664,-0.384 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.23,0.14,0.31,-0.401,-0.567,-0.258 -Drift,Naive,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.007,-0.029,0.018 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 82759f1cb22bcfc699dd12a73e712d2fbc0bbf5c..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s,median_inference_time_s,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.07142857142857,35.49604819631662,0.0,2.694849328,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,76.89285714285712,30.012261671412087,0.0,1.4030189444999999,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.07142857142857,30.197590695974842,0.0,16.9308283315,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.85714285714285,28.213885409107164,0.0,90.676829282,0.08,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,61.21428571428572,27.25905867510979,0.0,2.5351729785000003,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.785714285714285,26.51514785224567,0.0,0.9960156920000001,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.67857142857142,27.649834806479856,0.0,305.466367349,0.0,2.0 -Sundial-Base,53.39285714285714,24.746214191232585,0.0,35.620029862500004,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,48.535714285714285,15.654207763455553,0.0,690.615290623,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,36.67857142857143,11.239602667684679,0.0,186.7699845295,0.0,10.0 -AutoTheta,34.92857142857142,10.9884701559679,0.0,9.267665384499999,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,33.25,2.258981670108584,0.0,17.004582018,0.0,3.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.96428571428571,0.0,0.0,2.3247850175,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.321428571428573,-16.673948793089565,0.0,2.2371214229999996,0.0,0.0 -Drift,15.357142857142856,-18.13920384837251,0.0,2.1929671395000003,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 9bb016ea8213844b4acbd4657ef204940b151880..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s,median_inference_time_s,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.42857142857143,47.28056105322771,0.0,2.694849328,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.67857142857142,42.57610775202675,0.0,1.4030189444999999,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.57142857142858,42.20062128325953,0.0,16.9308283315,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.21428571428571,40.7460359139889,0.0,90.676829282,0.08,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.42857142857143,38.892961600022936,0.0,0.9960156920000001,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.42857142857143,39.332013785815214,0.0,2.5351729785000003,0.28,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.96428571428573,39.58671179038912,0.0,305.466367349,0.0,2.0 -Sundial-Base,45.964285714285715,33.42287717226134,0.0,35.620029862500004,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,45.53571428571429,20.161731427800046,0.0,690.615290623,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,40.67857142857143,20.561948549632326,0.0,186.7699845295,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,33.67857142857143,-26.818526760288375,0.0,17.004582018,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,27.142857142857142,5.457380397818312,0.0,9.267665384499999,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.178571428571423,0.0,0.0,2.3247850175,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.821428571428573,-45.398988807164976,0.0,2.2371214229999996,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.285714285714286,-45.77585379444895,0.0,2.1929671395000003,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 2069e9cfb4facd540b3b3e13e850b7873fe03f7e..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s,median_inference_time_s,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.92857142857142,39.40980595628945,0.0,2.694849328,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.28571428571428,33.719263075740194,0.0,16.9308283315,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,75.25000000000001,33.56017122067458,0.0,1.4030189444999999,0.01,0.0 -Toto-1.0,67.64285714285717,31.488756179777678,0.0,90.676829282,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,64.32142857142857,33.36123166513091,0.0,305.466367349,0.0,2.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.14285714285715,30.651048841637785,0.0,2.5351729785000003,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.142857142857146,29.770064235526473,0.0,0.9960156920000001,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,51.24999999999999,27.263435775595426,0.0,35.620029862500004,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,47.32142857142856,17.693885547849597,0.0,690.615290623,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,34.96428571428571,13.271687847205381,0.0,186.7699845295,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,34.60714285714286,4.328689341465408,0.0,17.004582018,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,32.0,13.794755020224814,0.0,9.267665384499999,0.0,0.0 -Naive,22.749999999999996,-6.11148881462471,0.0,2.2371214229999996,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.249999999999996,0.0,0.0,2.3247850175,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.142857142857146,-8.604851625817744,0.0,2.1929671395000003,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 07ce2305410c3877eea706cb9e1daa86a192536b..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s,median_inference_time_s,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.14285714285714,51.51952213752647,0.0,2.694849328,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.60714285714286,46.6655039781259,0.0,1.4030189444999999,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.28571428571429,46.72558173490076,0.0,16.9308283315,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.85714285714285,45.00088243993733,0.0,90.676829282,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.10714285714286,45.822378843833036,0.0,305.466367349,0.0,2.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.21428571428571,43.864523387242194,0.0,2.5351729785000003,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.85714285714286,43.187343947848866,0.0,0.9960156920000001,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.035714285714285,37.43731640370259,0.0,35.620029862500004,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.17857142857143,21.795752415252334,0.0,690.615290623,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,40.10714285714287,23.401617100945593,0.0,186.7699845295,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,31.392857142857146,-27.026777935471568,0.0,17.004582018,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,26.714285714285708,7.846425960422055,0.0,9.267665384499999,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.464285714285708,0.0,0.0,2.3247850175,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.750000000000002,-39.121433468308894,0.0,2.2371214229999996,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.285714285714288,-40.05851008470427,0.0,2.1929671395000003,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index d68782060dafacb45b6f583bc7c8e847d084dbb9..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.92857142857142,40.35527520955049,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.0,31.3787871700961,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.74999999999999,32.34128407289347,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,72.32142857142857,30.925782737555462,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.57142857142859,35.10126239252123,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.142857142857125,30.06698753539797,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.64285714285714,28.430405155187888,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.57142857142858,29.84835021519502,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,48.21428571428572,21.102265046417777,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 -AutoARIMA,41.428571428571445,20.38664272330395,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 -AutoTheta,33.214285714285715,14.792523576771243,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,31.785714285714278,2.3088190733359215,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.928571428571432,-17.371605733693517,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.500000000000004,-17.19495252915997,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index d762ad67358f49a0c2cc5e3d7d2fadf390d33f88..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.78571428571428,51.11726197861597,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.35714285714286,43.412654839288344,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.82142857142857,43.97585098003665,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.10714285714286,42.97306853626257,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.14285714285715,46.24923686371321,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.0,41.66951873570546,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.42857142857142,40.39825912219498,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,50.000000000000014,37.623889675747435,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,45.714285714285715,27.34922619892346,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 -AutoARIMA,44.28571428571429,30.565231601448495,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,32.85714285714285,-9.388090977202147,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.71428571428572,8.46720438230043,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.42857142857143,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.85714285714286,-36.92812113307396,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.5,-36.00664551250195,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 4b145df858cc3690229cfdddd1a2f88313a865d9..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.28571428571428,46.429455786437416,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.75,37.92043808590599,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,71.96428571428574,35.778831965851445,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,71.07142857142856,41.95874727359017,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.92857142857143,36.44667253780616,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.85714285714285,34.00276486111785,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.64285714285714,32.04345477073951,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,52.5,32.56219074595378,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,47.142857142857146,25.87488858437059,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 -AutoARIMA,42.5,22.038096719942146,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,35.71428571428572,11.232208535480337,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,30.35714285714285,18.487358814453003,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 -Naive,18.928571428571427,-7.338384818262655,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 -Drift,15.357142857142861,-6.9443177598616845,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 93aadcede063b3ed81d35eb51bea2e72318a3086..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,16 +0,0 @@ -model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.92857142857142,57.23698538544018,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,78.21428571428574,49.10426514594376,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.60714285714285,50.016127718460055,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.10714285714288,48.55676262651899,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,71.07142857142857,53.494037454973565,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.42857142857143,46.50676316081979,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.7857142857143,45.16312334798593,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.85714285714286,41.57117440400828,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,47.14285714285714,29.950996586481104,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 -AutoARIMA,47.14285714285714,33.733406325438665,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,30.35714285714285,-0.6607123551083394,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.928571428571427,9.363488981349711,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.21428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.428571428571429,-33.75682103916535,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.7857142857142865,-32.08602588008633,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 0259ee05dcb1b1ada773f2b92f2e49aca76fd387..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.131,0.053,0.212 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.118,0.039,0.207 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.137,0.052,0.225 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.081,0.012,0.148 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.07,0.228 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.095,0.241 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.15,0.066,0.228 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.156,0.333 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.251,0.169,0.33 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.3,0.213,0.381 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.389,0.257,0.524 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.32,0.476 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.389,0.595 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.491,0.387,0.599 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.15,-0.269,-0.056 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.014,-0.062,0.022 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.007,-0.025,0.037 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.057,-0.225,0.074 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.019,-0.006,0.046 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.01,0.074 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.022,-0.117,0.12 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.13,0.072,0.208 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.138,0.09,0.191 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.12,0.277 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.156,0.442 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.314,0.237,0.395 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.415,0.317,0.505 -TiRex,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.414,0.326,0.502 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.134,-0.261,-0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.014,-0.022,0.058 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.02,-0.008,0.053 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.043,-0.219,0.093 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.033,-0.006,0.073 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.055,0.011,0.104 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.036,-0.106,0.138 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.08,0.218 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.15,0.096,0.208 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.122,0.3 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.307,0.168,0.445 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.242,0.409 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.335,0.513 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.423,0.334,0.508 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.158,-0.29,-0.054 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.007,-0.039,0.024 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.021,-0.056,0.008 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.064,-0.239,0.077 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.012,-0.023,0.044 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.035,-0.01,0.085 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.124,0.125 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.125,0.057,0.207 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.132,0.079,0.187 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.189,0.104,0.29 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.293,0.148,0.438 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.226,0.399 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.314,0.507 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.411,0.321,0.501 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.088,-0.174,-0.012 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.054,-0.08,0.184 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.041,-0.103,0.179 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.06,-0.083,0.193 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.072,-0.064,0.201 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.349,0.8,0.093,-0.027,0.214 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.075,-0.054,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.177,0.049,0.304 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.185,0.068,0.296 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.125,0.347 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.336,0.149,0.489 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.351,0.263,0.435 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.447,0.327,0.56 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.446,0.321,0.564 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.296,-0.075 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.049,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.034,-0.078,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.012,-0.046,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.078,-0.252,0.06 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.023,-0.016,0.067 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.003,-0.129,0.111 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.114,0.044,0.201 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.122,0.058,0.186 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.179,0.096,0.273 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.284,0.138,0.433 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.301,0.218,0.39 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.404,0.3,0.498 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.403,0.302,0.499 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.317,-0.105 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.08,-0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.058,-0.116,-0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.036,-0.093,0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.2,0.651,-0.103,-0.273,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.023,-0.072,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.02,-0.16,0.079 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.093,0.041,0.153 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.101,0.053,0.152 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.16,0.103,0.229 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.267,0.12,0.42 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.284,0.225,0.352 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.39,0.293,0.482 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.389,0.3,0.484 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.176,-0.296,-0.07 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.136,0.105 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.037,-0.16,0.096 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.016,-0.142,0.11 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.081,-0.235,0.051 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.003,-0.125,0.114 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.02,-0.085,0.138 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.111,-0.023,0.246 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.119,-0.012,0.256 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.177,0.08,0.288 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.282,0.087,0.452 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.209,0.391 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.402,0.297,0.533 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.401,0.276,0.545 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.499,-0.185 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.15,-0.262,-0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.166,-0.28,-0.087 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.142,-0.261,-0.061 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.216,-0.437,-0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.128,-0.251,-0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.102,-0.18,-0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.125,-0.327,0.022 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.776,0.009,-0.04,0.05 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.074,-0.0,0.155 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.192,0.055,0.351 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.211,0.122,0.301 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.221,0.426 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.232,0.422 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.335,-0.493,-0.204 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.16,-0.237,-0.099 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.177,-0.263,-0.106 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.153,-0.23,-0.086 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.227,-0.42,-0.072 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.138,-0.228,-0.061 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.112,-0.179,-0.056 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.135,-0.345,0.012 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.224,0.6,-0.009,-0.053,0.039 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.066,-0.014,0.158 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.185,0.034,0.342 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.204,0.115,0.294 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.322,0.212,0.425 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.321,0.227,0.417 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.429,-0.615,-0.27 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.384,-0.137 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.259,-0.429,-0.138 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.234,-0.409,-0.117 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.313,-0.532,-0.143 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.218,-0.376,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.191,-0.297,-0.115 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.215,-0.405,-0.086 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.08,-0.183,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.07,-0.188,0.013 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.128,-0.064,0.315 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.088,0.2 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.274,0.184,0.368 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.273,0.182,0.37 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.638,-1.102,-0.346 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.424,-0.791,-0.184 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.444,-0.803,-0.203 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.414,-0.78,-0.173 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.505,-0.957,-0.175 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.397,-0.764,-0.16 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.365,-0.725,-0.136 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.393,-0.824,-0.095 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.238,-0.54,-0.059 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.227,-0.519,-0.035 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.147,-0.46,0.06 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.279,0.233 -AutoETS,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.168,-0.073,0.351 -AutoETS,Drift,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.166,-0.056,0.342 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.677,-0.909,-0.471 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.457,-0.653,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.692,-0.32 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.448,-0.665,-0.292 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.541,-0.77,-0.357 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.43,-0.64,-0.278 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.397,-0.544,-0.29 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.425,-0.642,-0.265 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.267,-0.431,-0.139 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.256,-0.417,-0.13 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.25,-0.096 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.024,-0.304,0.218 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.6,0.4,0.775,0.148,0.005,0.284 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.147,0.006,0.293 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.968,-1.469,-0.636 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.71,-1.022,-0.464 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.735,-1.055,-0.504 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.699,-1.028,-0.458 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.809,-1.274,-0.485 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.678,-0.994,-0.428 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.64,-0.931,-0.415 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.673,-1.142,-0.422 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.488,-0.741,-0.284 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.474,-0.74,-0.269 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.377,-0.582,-0.225 -Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.201,-0.54,0.068 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.225,0.6,-0.174,-0.396,-0.005 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.002,-0.052,0.045 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.965,-1.493,-0.631 -Drift,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.708,-1.01,-0.484 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.732,-1.033,-0.5 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.697,-1.005,-0.474 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.806,-1.295,-0.473 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.676,-0.994,-0.432 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.637,-0.937,-0.428 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.671,-1.196,-0.381 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.485,-0.731,-0.303 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.472,-0.715,-0.294 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.375,-0.588,-0.223 -Drift,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.2,-0.519,0.053 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.172,-0.415,-0.006 -Drift,Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.002,-0.047,0.05 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index f99b84187fdb19a71b16e89ca10e7dfb129610e3..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.136,0.06,0.217 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.127,0.049,0.215 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.143,0.056,0.234 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.091,0.024,0.158 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.162,0.082,0.243 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.104,0.255 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.216,0.139,0.287 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.248,0.403 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.296,0.22,0.371 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.541,0.378,0.703 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.381,0.543 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.425,0.58 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.567,0.719 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.641,0.56,0.72 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.158,-0.277,-0.063 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.066,0.03 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.008,-0.031,0.042 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.053,-0.216,0.076 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.03,-0.001,0.062 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.051,0.02,0.085 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,-0.028,0.186 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.148,0.295 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.185,0.141,0.234 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.47,0.277,0.659 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.465 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.349,0.509 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.587,0.503,0.656 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.501,0.656 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.146,-0.274,-0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.031,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.018,-0.018,0.058 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.042,-0.218,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.04,-0.01,0.096 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.06,0.009,0.121 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,-0.022,0.189 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.229,0.15,0.307 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.193,0.134,0.252 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.476,0.285,0.662 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.388,0.288,0.479 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.354,0.52 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.512,0.66 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.588,0.509,0.663 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.167,-0.305,-0.06 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.008,-0.044,0.03 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.018,-0.061,0.018 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.061,-0.244,0.087 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.022,-0.016,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.043,-0.009,0.098 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.086,-0.048,0.191 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.215,0.135,0.297 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.179,0.122,0.233 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.466,0.267,0.659 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.27,0.474 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.339,0.517 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.501,0.655 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.581,0.501,0.653 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.1,-0.188,-0.024 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.05,-0.083,0.178 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.041,-0.101,0.179 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.057,-0.096,0.196 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.079,-0.064,0.204 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.098,-0.026,0.214 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.138,0.011,0.249 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.26,0.135,0.372 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.226,0.114,0.333 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.499,0.281,0.68 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.413,0.306,0.507 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.355,0.55 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.607,0.512,0.693 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.501,0.696 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.193,-0.321,-0.09 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.031,-0.066,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.041,-0.106,0.009 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.023,-0.065,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.085,-0.256,0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.021,-0.019,0.068 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.065,-0.067,0.167 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.197,0.115,0.28 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.16,0.099,0.221 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.456,0.251,0.651 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.363,0.256,0.456 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.417,0.325,0.5 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.574,0.481,0.65 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.571,0.477,0.649 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.342,-0.117 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.053,-0.093,-0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.064,-0.137,-0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.045,-0.108,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.109,-0.272,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.022,-0.073,0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.044,-0.092,0.148 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.18,0.111,0.25 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.097,0.188 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.443,0.237,0.648 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.349,0.248,0.437 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.324,0.474 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.565,0.479,0.636 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.476,0.639 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.276,-0.403,-0.161 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.102,-0.229,0.027 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.113,-0.233,0.022 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.094,-0.237,0.046 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.16,-0.331,-0.011 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.2,0.063 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.047,-0.174,0.085 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.141,-0.003,0.27 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,-0.03,0.236 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.42,0.173,0.64 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.319,0.205,0.422 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.376,0.278,0.468 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.544,0.446,0.644 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.541,0.431,0.645 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.486,-0.675,-0.329 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.284,-0.419,-0.174 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.297,-0.444,-0.177 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.274,-0.422,-0.157 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.352,-0.592,-0.156 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.246,-0.388,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.219,-0.333,-0.124 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.165,-0.369,0.003 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.046,-0.11,0.011 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.34,0.109,0.584 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.206,0.119,0.291 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.273,0.165,0.37 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.469,0.372,0.556 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.371,0.555 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.42,-0.589,-0.283 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.227,-0.306,-0.164 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.239,-0.336,-0.155 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.218,-0.304,-0.139 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.292,-0.499,-0.129 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.19,-0.283,-0.109 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.165,-0.231,-0.108 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.308,0.029 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.044,-0.011,0.099 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.36,0.124,0.595 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.241,0.139,0.334 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.306,0.199,0.4 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.493,0.39,0.578 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.489,0.393,0.574 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.177,-2.364,-0.607 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.888,-1.935,-0.384 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.908,-1.961,-0.399 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.874,-1.929,-0.365 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.995,-2.122,-0.391 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.84,-1.865,-0.335 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.796,-1.839,-0.31 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.725,-1.781,-0.209 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.515,-1.402,-0.122 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.564,-1.47,-0.141 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.216,-0.997,0.152 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.094,-0.891,0.27 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.178,-0.412,0.473 -AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.171,-0.441,0.461 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.19,-0.615 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.87,-0.393 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.634,-0.92,-0.405 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-0.903,-0.37 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.703,-1.03,-0.441 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.569,-0.838,-0.344 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.536,-0.778,-0.33 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.467,-0.731,-0.257 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.26,-0.411,-0.135 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.318,-0.501,-0.161 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.178,-0.18,0.499 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.085,-0.091,0.214 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.332,0.212,0.436 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.327,0.202,0.436 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.046,-1.382,-0.739 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.038,-0.536 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.083,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.754,-1.07,-0.513 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.222,-0.549 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-1.001,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.678,-0.902,-0.479 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.603,-0.879,-0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.376,-0.587,-0.198 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.44,-0.667,-0.248 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.086,-0.371,0.471 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.093,-0.272,0.084 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.27,0.133,0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.265,0.114,0.397 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.801,-2.561,-1.309 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.42,-1.907,-1.013 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.444,-1.943,-1.05 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.401,-1.895,-1.005 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.547,-2.26,-1.05 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.347,-1.858,-0.926 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.297,-1.75,-0.918 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.195,-1.805,-0.806 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.885,-1.253,-0.593 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.972,-1.372,-0.64 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.217,-0.898,0.292 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.496,-0.774,-0.269 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-0.369,-0.629,-0.153 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.007,-0.056,0.035 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.782,-2.572,-1.273 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.403,-1.908,-1.003 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.428,-1.966,-1.036 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.385,-1.884,-1.004 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.53,-2.286,-1.004 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.332,-1.849,-0.913 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.282,-1.772,-0.909 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.18,-1.816,-0.759 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.247,-0.591 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.959,-1.348,-0.648 -Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.206,-0.854,0.306 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.486,-0.774,-0.253 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.36,-0.657,-0.129 -Drift,Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.007,-0.037,0.053 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 458b5b50b74ae5db9a8772e5e4c1c4a79789b405..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.137,0.05,0.233 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.166,0.066,0.268 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.077,-0.013,0.171 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.157,0.058,0.271 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.188,0.089,0.289 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.118,0.303 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.206,0.107,0.294 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.277,0.174,0.377 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.313,0.193,0.434 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.397,0.241,0.536 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.226,0.444 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.501,0.379,0.603 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.499,0.377,0.608 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.464,0.359,0.555 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.159,-0.304,-0.053 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.033,-0.008,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.07,-0.251,0.076 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.023,-0.02,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.4,0.825,0.059,-0.004,0.127 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.086,0.029,0.152 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,-0.074,0.199 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.091,0.253 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.108,0.318 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.301,0.158,0.452 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.238,0.142,0.342 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.422,0.313,0.52 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.42,0.319,0.513 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.274,0.476 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.199,-0.366,-0.071 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.034,-0.087,0.008 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.106,-0.297,0.055 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.011,-0.046,0.024 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.027,-0.016,0.074 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.055,-0.005,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.048,-0.117,0.184 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.134,0.048,0.24 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.176,0.075,0.298 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.122,0.444 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.109,0.322 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.402,0.285,0.506 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.5 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.358,0.245,0.461 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.083,-0.206,0.013 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.065,-0.082,0.201 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.096,-0.058,0.229 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.087,-0.07,0.221 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.121,-0.022,0.246 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.801,0.146,0.026,0.259 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.139,0.017,0.248 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.6,0.9,0.217,0.089,0.337 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.256,0.114,0.395 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.346,0.157,0.502 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.288,0.166,0.392 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.336,0.581 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.457,0.334,0.579 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.325,0.506 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.186,-0.372,-0.061 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.024,-0.085,0.019 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.025,0.044 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.095,-0.283,0.065 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.037,-0.006,0.1 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.005,0.127 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.113,0.2 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.143,0.068,0.24 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.185,0.09,0.304 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.284,0.128,0.449 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.123,0.325 -TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.408,0.283,0.514 -TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.406,0.297,0.506 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.364,0.252,0.462 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.232,-0.406,-0.098 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.6,-0.063,-0.146,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.028,-0.079,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.137,-0.325,0.021 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.038,-0.111,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.029,-0.025,0.087 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.021,-0.14,0.15 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.11,0.007,0.226 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.153,0.023,0.293 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.257,0.088,0.427 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.19,0.096,0.301 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.385,0.269,0.494 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.383,0.267,0.491 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.34,0.237,0.445 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.269,-0.434,-0.134 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.095,-0.179,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.058,-0.136,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.199,0.6,-0.171,-0.349,-0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.069,-0.145,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.03,-0.095,0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.008,-0.161,0.112 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.083,0.015,0.164 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.128,0.006,0.261 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.234,0.075,0.406 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.166,0.105,0.235 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.367,0.27,0.462 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.365,0.272,0.465 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.32,0.239,0.401 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.259,-0.417,-0.119 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.086,-0.248,0.069 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.225,0.105 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.162,-0.33,-0.017 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.249,0.101 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.177,0.122 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.008,-0.126,0.139 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.09,-0.072,0.252 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.135,-0.037,0.297 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.24,0.014,0.431 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.173,0.043,0.303 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.372,0.23,0.522 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.369,0.212,0.532 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.326,0.226,0.43 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.384,-0.606,-0.211 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.194,-0.339,-0.1 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.154,-0.316,-0.05 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.4,-0.277,-0.508,-0.097 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.166,-0.316,-0.073 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.123,-0.292,-0.007 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.091,-0.196,-0.015 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.099,-0.336,0.067 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.049,-0.048,0.165 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.165,0.022,0.341 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.091,0.006,0.177 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.183,0.42 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.307,0.199,0.408 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.259,0.152,0.355 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.455,-0.767,-0.239 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.466,-0.121 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.214,-0.425,-0.081 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.343,-0.653,-0.129 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.227,-0.436,-0.099 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.181,-0.414,-0.024 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.147,-0.354,-0.006 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.156,-0.422,0.035 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.198,0.045 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.122,-0.095,0.307 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.044,-0.151,0.191 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.274,0.07,0.418 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.271,0.094,0.405 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.22,0.099,0.335 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.657,-1.155,-0.318 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.43,-0.826,-0.188 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.382,-0.8,-0.138 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.529,-1.008,-0.186 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.397,-0.815,-0.147 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.345,-0.746,-0.096 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.306,-0.685,-0.082 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.316,-0.757,-0.014 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.198,-0.518,-0.022 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.139,-0.443,0.087 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.089,-0.429,0.126 -AutoETS,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.173,-0.101,0.36 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.17,-0.077,0.35 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.112,-0.185,0.312 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.799,-0.292 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.313,-0.52,-0.165 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.269,-0.476,-0.123 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.404,-0.646,-0.199 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.482,-0.14 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.235,-0.432,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.199,-0.307,-0.117 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.209,-0.434,-0.045 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.1,-0.215,-0.006 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.046,-0.236,0.131 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.082,-0.144,0.3 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.241,0.134,0.346 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.135,0.347 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.185,0.112,0.262 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.004,-1.516,-0.611 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.729,-1.085,-0.455 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.671,-1.026,-0.398 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.389,-0.506 -Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.689,-1.057,-0.394 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.626,-0.975,-0.368 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.58,-0.86,-0.37 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.592,-1.092,-0.299 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.448,-0.725,-0.225 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.377,-0.719,-0.076 -Naive,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.209,-0.562,0.092 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.317,-0.528,-0.155 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.8,0.65,0.95,-0.004,-0.072,0.057 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.073,-0.301,0.102 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.996,-1.554,-0.606 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.723,-1.054,-0.468 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.665,-1.002,-0.419 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.843,-1.376,-0.501 -Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.683,-1.026,-0.423 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.62,-0.963,-0.364 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.574,-0.869,-0.374 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.586,-1.136,-0.27 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.443,-0.69,-0.249 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.372,-0.681,-0.104 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.205,-0.539,0.071 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.312,-0.532,-0.156 -Drift,Naive,0.2,0.05,0.35,0.004,-0.06,0.067 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.069,-0.295,0.105 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.867,-1.248,-0.559 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.611,-0.907,-0.377 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.557,-0.855,-0.325 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.025,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.573,-0.859,-0.336 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.515,-0.802,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.472,-0.669,-0.315 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.483,-0.755,-0.292 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.349,-0.551,-0.18 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.283,-0.504,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.127,-0.454,0.156 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.227,-0.354,-0.126 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.068,-0.113,0.231 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.065,-0.118,0.228 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index e50dfe3244abbee87a6b7d6f4cc8cf5036bde361..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.056,0.281 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.144,0.056,0.239 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.169,0.068,0.279 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,-0.003,0.162 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.201,0.1,0.304 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.125,0.322 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.268,0.181,0.348 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.355,0.239,0.479 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.39,0.277,0.503 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.384,0.732 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.423,0.621 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.466,0.653 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.68,0.599,0.752 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.676,0.591,0.751 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.19,-0.391,-0.06 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.018,-0.087,0.027 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.011,-0.027,0.047 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.094,-0.278,0.056 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.006,0.11 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.072,0.015,0.129 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,-0.034,0.265 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.232,0.148,0.339 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.273,0.162,0.4 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.482,0.276,0.68 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.319,0.55 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.374,0.588 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.619,0.524,0.699 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.521,0.691 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.169,-0.315,-0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.018,-0.028,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.028,-0.02,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.075,-0.25,0.059 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.066,-0.001,0.134 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.825,0.65,0.975,0.088,0.032,0.151 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.145,0.003,0.26 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.246,0.148,0.36 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.286,0.17,0.408 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.492,0.284,0.687 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.449,0.323,0.554 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.5,0.386,0.596 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.541,0.697 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.622,0.534,0.693 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.203,-0.388,-0.073 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.011,-0.049,0.026 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.029,-0.087,0.02 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.106,-0.302,0.056 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.4,0.801,0.038,-0.011,0.085 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.062,-0.004,0.131 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.12,-0.043,0.257 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.224,0.121,0.342 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.266,0.138,0.404 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.477,0.258,0.683 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.308,0.552 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.363,0.591 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.52,0.694 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.516,0.689 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.193,0.003 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.086,-0.059,0.218 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.07,-0.063,0.2 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.096,-0.059,0.232 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.131,-0.008,0.256 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.152,0.033,0.266 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.204,0.086,0.312 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.298,0.163,0.427 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.336,0.202,0.467 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.528,0.318,0.71 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.381,0.591 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.535,0.427,0.629 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.568,0.736 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.648,0.554,0.736 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.251,-0.437,-0.111 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.051,-0.124,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.07,-0.155,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.199,0.6,-0.04,-0.093,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.15,-0.343,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.025,-0.037,0.088 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.084,-0.068,0.209 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.193,0.069,0.319 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.236,0.104,0.374 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.458,0.223,0.665 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.41,0.288,0.527 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.355,0.565 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.6,0.501,0.677 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.595,0.489,0.678 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.282,-0.474,-0.143 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.077,-0.148,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.175,0.025,0.35,-0.097,-0.178,-0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.066,-0.151,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.179,-0.362,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.025,-0.096,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,-0.094,0.187 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.172,0.067,0.289 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.217,0.103,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.444,0.218,0.665 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.28,0.512 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.356,0.542 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.59,0.501,0.668 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.585,0.495,0.666 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.366,-0.534,-0.221 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.361,0.033 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.169,-0.351,-0.003 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.136,-0.346,0.041 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.256,-0.453,-0.094 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.092,-0.264,0.064 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.066,-0.229,0.086 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.118,-0.062,0.29 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.166,-0.005,0.329 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.41,0.131,0.645 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.355,0.224,0.471 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.416,0.303,0.513 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.563,0.462,0.66 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.558,0.442,0.666 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.55,-0.918,-0.314 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.302,-0.512,-0.173 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.326,-0.562,-0.174 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.288,-0.52,-0.138 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.425,-0.746,-0.194 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.239,-0.468,-0.075 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.208,-0.407,-0.071 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.134,-0.409,0.058 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.325,0.775,0.054,-0.008,0.118 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.336,0.112,0.584 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.269,0.156,0.362 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.337,0.206,0.439 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.505,0.387,0.593 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.498,0.394,0.581 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.638,-1.011,-0.383 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.376,-0.668,-0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.401,-0.688,-0.205 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.362,-0.677,-0.159 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.506,-0.876,-0.254 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.309,-0.598,-0.115 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.277,-0.519,-0.115 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.199,-0.491,0.005 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.225,0.675,-0.057,-0.133,0.008 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.309,0.093,0.565 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.227,0.137,0.316 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.3,0.19,0.395 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.476,0.373,0.567 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.374,0.556 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.289,-2.732,-0.624 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.932,-2.129,-0.381 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.968,-2.195,-0.396 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.911,-2.157,-0.347 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.121,-2.449,-0.466 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.844,-1.986,-0.288 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.797,-1.983,-0.279 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.696,-1.814,-0.151 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.507,-1.405,-0.126 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.447,-1.3,-0.103 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.132,-0.873,0.197 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.007,-0.774,0.314 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.225,-0.349,0.489 -AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.213,-0.358,0.477 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.12,-1.64,-0.733 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.781,-1.224,-0.469 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.813,-1.244,-0.477 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.232,-0.445 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.949,-1.445,-0.615 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.694,-1.113,-0.405 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.653,-1.05,-0.388 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.551,-0.891,-0.288 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.368,-0.568,-0.185 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.294,-0.462,-0.159 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.116,-0.246,0.466 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.094,-0.072,0.217 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.322,0.188,0.435 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.314,0.173,0.433 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.338,-1.884,-0.874 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.965,-1.426,-0.596 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.001,-1.473,-0.629 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.944,-1.447,-0.57 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.15,-1.695,-0.745 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.298,-0.551 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.824,-1.184,-0.553 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.711,-1.051,-0.434 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.509,-0.784,-0.26 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.428,-0.653,-0.235 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.007,-0.459,0.436 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.103,-0.277,0.067 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.6,0.9,0.252,0.104,0.375 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.243,0.079,0.379 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.128,-3.026,-1.495 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.628,-2.324,-1.101 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.676,-2.301,-1.181 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.6,-2.263,-1.082 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.876,-2.787,-1.317 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.5,-2.099,-1.004 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.439,-2.013,-1.005 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.289,-1.944,-0.858 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.018,-1.454,-0.631 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.909,-1.312,-0.594 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.29,-0.958,0.259 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.476,-0.769,-0.232 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.4,-0.338,-0.599,-0.116 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.013,-0.074,0.037 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.089,-3.018,-1.445 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.595,-2.236,-1.088 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.643,-2.256,-1.147 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.568,-2.216,-1.066 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.84,-2.79,-1.244 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.469,-2.108,-0.956 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.409,-1.99,-0.979 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.261,-1.99,-0.791 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.993,-1.387,-0.651 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.886,-1.253,-0.598 -Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.271,-0.912,0.264 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.457,-0.763,-0.209 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.321,-0.61,-0.086 -Drift,Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.012,-0.039,0.069 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/pairwise_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 70886f6ef01b27f227b1e22898d2d1917aa13f84..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.078,0.052,0.108 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.076,0.048,0.103 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.101,0.073,0.133 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.113,0.086,0.141 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.122,0.096,0.15 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.77,0.92,0.108,0.08,0.14 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.143,0.113,0.172 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.235,0.19,0.277 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.273,0.23,0.315 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.275,0.236,0.316 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.34,0.28,0.401 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.355,0.318,0.393 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.447,0.388,0.505 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.454,0.392,0.513 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.085,-0.121,-0.055 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.485,0.385,0.585,-0.003,-0.019,0.014 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.52,0.71,0.025,0.003,0.046 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.685,0.845,0.038,0.021,0.055 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.048,0.029,0.067 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.033,-0.01,0.074 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.805,0.72,0.88,0.07,0.036,0.104 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.17,0.132,0.21 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.211,0.175,0.253 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.214,0.18,0.249 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.284,0.225,0.345 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.3,0.264,0.339 -TiRex,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.4,0.344,0.457 -TiRex,Drift,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.408,0.347,0.462 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.082,-0.115,-0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.515,0.415,0.615,0.003,-0.014,0.019 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.485,0.66,0.028,0.005,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.71,0.625,0.795,0.04,0.021,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.625,0.79,0.05,0.029,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.67,0.58,0.77,0.035,-0.011,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.805,0.73,0.88,0.072,0.04,0.105 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.172,0.126,0.217 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.214,0.175,0.257 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.216,0.177,0.255 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.286,0.228,0.347 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.302,0.267,0.342 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.402,0.341,0.458 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.409,0.345,0.469 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.113,-0.154,-0.079 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.385,0.29,0.48,-0.026,-0.048,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.34,0.515,-0.028,-0.054,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.013,-0.008,0.034 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.46,0.645,0.023,-0.005,0.048 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.008,-0.043,0.055 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.675,0.585,0.765,0.046,0.007,0.088 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.149,0.102,0.193 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.191,0.149,0.237 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.194,0.151,0.235 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.266,0.203,0.326 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.282,0.241,0.327 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.94,0.88,0.98,0.385,0.32,0.442 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.94,0.392,0.328,0.451 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.128,-0.165,-0.094 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.315,-0.039,-0.059,-0.021 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.205,0.375,-0.042,-0.064,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.33,0.51,-0.013,-0.036,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.465,0.64,0.01,-0.012,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.43,0.62,-0.005,-0.054,0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.033,-0.004,0.067 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.138,0.09,0.18 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.18,0.138,0.228 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.77,0.91,0.183,0.144,0.223 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.76,0.67,0.83,0.256,0.192,0.32 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.273,0.236,0.314 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.377,0.316,0.433 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.384,0.32,0.441 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.139,-0.177,-0.106 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.05,-0.072,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.21,0.375,-0.053,-0.077,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.355,0.54,-0.024,-0.051,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.36,0.535,-0.01,-0.033,0.012 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.42,0.61,-0.016,-0.062,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.605,0.51,0.695,0.024,-0.014,0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.129,0.084,0.174 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.84,0.76,0.9,0.172,0.132,0.215 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.174,0.137,0.212 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.248,0.184,0.315 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.265,0.226,0.304 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.37,0.315,0.423 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.378,0.319,0.435 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.08,0.23,-0.122,-0.163,-0.087 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.034,-0.08,0.01 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.33,0.23,0.42,-0.036,-0.088,0.011 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.33,0.51,-0.008,-0.058,0.041 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.48,0.38,0.57,0.005,-0.039,0.051 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.48,0.39,0.58,0.015,-0.026,0.058 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.53,0.43,0.63,0.039,-0.001,0.078 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.645,0.545,0.735,0.142,0.089,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.185,0.133,0.241 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.187,0.14,0.235 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.26,0.183,0.332 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.855,0.96,0.276,0.231,0.321 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.38,0.318,0.442 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.87,0.8,0.94,0.388,0.321,0.45 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.167,-0.207,-0.128 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.195,0.12,0.28,-0.075,-0.115,-0.037 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.195,0.12,0.27,-0.078,-0.117,-0.042 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.235,0.415,-0.048,-0.097,-0.007 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.035,-0.072,0.004 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.395,0.305,0.49,-0.024,-0.061,0.014 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.47,0.37,0.57,-0.04,-0.085,0.001 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.66,0.56,0.76,0.108,0.051,0.16 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.152,0.098,0.203 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.155,0.109,0.199 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.71,0.61,0.8,0.23,0.152,0.3 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.247,0.206,0.288 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.88,0.8,0.94,0.355,0.289,0.417 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.363,0.291,0.428 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.308,-0.383,-0.234 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.205,-0.265,-0.152 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.208,-0.277,-0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.175,-0.239,-0.113 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.16,-0.219,-0.099 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.148,-0.211,-0.091 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.355,0.265,0.455,-0.166,-0.235,-0.097 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.34,0.24,0.44,-0.121,-0.19,-0.054 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.64,0.545,0.73,0.05,0.02,0.09 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.052,0.025,0.082 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.795,0.72,0.87,0.137,0.081,0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.725,0.865,0.157,0.116,0.203 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.277,0.218,0.346 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.286,0.225,0.35 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.376,-0.459,-0.298 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.268,-0.339,-0.212 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.272,-0.346,-0.212 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.236,-0.311,-0.175 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.22,-0.295,-0.16 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.16,0.1,0.24,-0.208,-0.274,-0.152 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.227,-0.317,-0.153 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.179,-0.254,-0.108 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.36,0.27,0.455,-0.052,-0.099,-0.02 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.003,-0.039,0.039 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.595,0.5,0.69,0.092,0.024,0.162 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.665,0.83,0.112,0.068,0.161 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.239,0.169,0.312 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.249,0.174,0.324 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.38,-0.462,-0.308 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.272,-0.332,-0.22 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.275,-0.343,-0.215 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.24,-0.307,-0.178 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.09,0.23,-0.224,-0.287,-0.168 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.211,-0.269,-0.159 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.23,-0.307,-0.163 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.183,-0.249,-0.122 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.055,-0.09,-0.025 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.003,-0.041,0.037 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.089,0.026,0.155 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.11,0.069,0.149 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.237,0.181,0.301 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.247,0.189,0.31 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.515,-0.671,-0.39 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.397,-0.526,-0.291 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.4,-0.531,-0.295 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.362,-0.484,-0.254 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.24,0.17,0.33,-0.344,-0.471,-0.237 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.33,-0.459,-0.225 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.351,-0.498,-0.225 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.2,0.39,-0.299,-0.428,-0.179 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.13,0.28,-0.159,-0.241,-0.088 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.405,0.31,0.5,-0.101,-0.194,-0.024 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.098,-0.183,-0.027 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.635,0.54,0.72,0.023,-0.071,0.103 -AutoETS,Naive,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.162,0.086,0.251 -AutoETS,Drift,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.173,0.098,0.258 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.55,-0.648,-0.466 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.429,-0.512,-0.359 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.433,-0.52,-0.365 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.393,-0.485,-0.318 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.375,-0.458,-0.308 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.361,-0.437,-0.293 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.09,0.04,0.145,-0.382,-0.472,-0.301 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.329,-0.405,-0.259 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.135,0.275,-0.186,-0.255,-0.131 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.335,-0.127,-0.191,-0.073 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.123,-0.176,-0.074 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.365,0.28,0.46,-0.023,-0.115,0.067 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.575,0.48,0.665,0.143,0.065,0.223 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.7,0.6,0.79,0.154,0.067,0.238 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.809,-1.021,-0.634 -Naive,TiRex,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.667,-0.842,-0.525 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.671,-0.844,-0.518 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.06,0.02,0.12,-0.625,-0.792,-0.471 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.604,-0.764,-0.463 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.588,-0.733,-0.46 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.613,-0.791,-0.467 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.2,-0.55,-0.716,-0.407 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.383,-0.529,-0.279 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.314,-0.454,-0.204 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.311,-0.432,-0.222 -Naive,AutoETS,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.194,-0.336,-0.094 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.425,0.335,0.52,-0.167,-0.288,-0.069 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.012,-0.012,0.035 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.832,-1.053,-0.644 -Drift,TiRex,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.688,-0.859,-0.531 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.692,-0.883,-0.526 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.11,0.06,0.18,-0.646,-0.821,-0.487 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.624,-0.789,-0.47 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.608,-0.77,-0.468 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.13,0.06,0.2,-0.633,-0.819,-0.473 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.57,-0.747,-0.411 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.401,-0.539,-0.291 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.331,-0.479,-0.21 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.327,-0.45,-0.233 -Drift,AutoETS,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.209,-0.347,-0.109 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.21,0.4,-0.181,-0.312,-0.071 -Drift,Naive,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.013,-0.036,0.012 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/pairwise_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 6730d66be75dd568f6296bcbc07fc32aafe4add8..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.082,0.056,0.111 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.088,0.059,0.115 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.11,0.081,0.141 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.131,0.103,0.16 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.137,0.11,0.168 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.127,0.097,0.159 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.208,0.18,0.236 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.34,0.288,0.386 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.38 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.562,0.466,0.655 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.442,0.387,0.495 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.427,0.521 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.637,0.583,0.684 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.638,0.581,0.687 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.089,-0.125,-0.06 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.565,0.465,0.66,0.006,-0.01,0.022 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.031,0.009,0.052 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.825,0.75,0.895,0.053,0.036,0.072 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.835,0.76,0.905,0.06,0.042,0.08 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.049,0.005,0.092 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.905,0.85,0.96,0.137,0.107,0.169 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.281,0.232,0.328 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.277,0.237,0.32 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.524,0.417,0.626 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.393,0.339,0.445 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.379,0.479 -TiRex,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.605,0.547,0.653 -TiRex,Drift,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.606,0.545,0.655 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.096,-0.13,-0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.435,0.34,0.535,-0.007,-0.023,0.01 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.47,0.66,0.025,0.001,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.047,0.026,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.72,0.635,0.8,0.054,0.033,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.043,-0.005,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.925,0.875,0.97,0.132,0.103,0.161 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.276,0.222,0.327 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.272,0.232,0.319 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.521,0.413,0.624 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.389,0.331,0.446 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.422,0.375,0.474 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.602,0.543,0.65 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.604,0.542,0.653 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.124,-0.164,-0.089 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.032,-0.054,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.44,0.34,0.53,-0.025,-0.051,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.51,0.685,0.023,0.002,0.045 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.57,0.475,0.655,0.03,0.001,0.055 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.019,-0.033,0.07 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.825,0.745,0.895,0.11,0.074,0.147 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.258,0.2,0.309 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.254,0.207,0.305 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.51,0.402,0.614 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.373,0.31,0.431 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.407,0.354,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.592,0.532,0.642 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.594,0.53,0.645 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.151,-0.19,-0.115 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.175,0.105,0.25,-0.056,-0.077,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.05,-0.074,-0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.315,0.49,-0.024,-0.047,-0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.54,0.455,0.625,0.007,-0.016,0.029 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.004,-0.055,0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.855,0.78,0.92,0.089,0.054,0.123 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.24,0.187,0.292 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.236,0.189,0.286 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.5,0.382,0.609 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.88,0.81,0.93,0.358,0.299,0.415 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.393,0.343,0.448 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.583,0.523,0.634 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.94,0.88,0.98,0.584,0.519,0.636 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.159,-0.201,-0.123 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.165,0.095,0.24,-0.064,-0.088,-0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.28,0.2,0.365,-0.057,-0.081,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.345,0.525,-0.031,-0.059,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.46,0.375,0.545,-0.007,-0.03,0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.43,0.63,-0.011,-0.059,0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.815,0.74,0.89,0.082,0.045,0.116 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.235,0.184,0.284 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.92,0.231,0.188,0.277 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.496,0.379,0.605 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.354,0.3,0.409 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.389,0.342,0.441 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.58,0.524,0.628 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.581,0.52,0.63 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.146,-0.189,-0.108 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.052,-0.101,-0.005 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.045,-0.095,0.005 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.02,-0.076,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.004,-0.044,0.052 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.47,0.37,0.57,0.011,-0.032,0.055 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.093,0.05,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.735,0.645,0.815,0.243,0.19,0.297 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.239,0.189,0.292 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.503,0.387,0.611 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.361,0.302,0.422 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.396,0.346,0.447 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.584,0.526,0.636 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.586,0.521,0.639 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.263,-0.309,-0.219 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.095,0.04,0.15,-0.159,-0.203,-0.119 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.075,0.03,0.125,-0.152,-0.191,-0.115 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.175,0.105,0.255,-0.124,-0.172,-0.079 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.145,0.08,0.22,-0.097,-0.14,-0.057 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.185,0.11,0.26,-0.09,-0.132,-0.047 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.102,-0.155,-0.053 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.166,0.096,0.23 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.162,0.102,0.22 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.453,0.323,0.576 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.296,0.226,0.364 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.334,0.281,0.392 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.84,0.96,0.542,0.473,0.598 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.543,0.47,0.602 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.514,-0.63,-0.404 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.39,-0.488,-0.302 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.381,-0.485,-0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.347,-0.448,-0.25 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.316,-0.412,-0.23 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.22,0.15,0.31,-0.307,-0.396,-0.226 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.265,0.185,0.355,-0.322,-0.423,-0.234 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.199,-0.298,-0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.51,0.42,0.605,-0.005,-0.049,0.041 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.365,0.22,0.501 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.156,0.108,0.208 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.725,0.87,0.202,0.148,0.257 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.451,0.395,0.503 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.452,0.394,0.506 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.507,-0.612,-0.409 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.383,-0.47,-0.311 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.374,-0.468,-0.301 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.341,-0.439,-0.261 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.309,-0.401,-0.233 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.08,0.2,-0.3,-0.383,-0.232 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.315,-0.412,-0.233 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.193,-0.282,-0.114 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.49,0.395,0.58,0.005,-0.043,0.047 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.695,0.615,0.785,0.359,0.211,0.496 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.16,0.099,0.216 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.82,0.935,0.206,0.154,0.263 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.454,0.388,0.512 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.455,0.384,0.516 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-1.285,-1.897,-0.873 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.102,-1.673,-0.714 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.087,-1.662,-0.703 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-1.041,-1.59,-0.672 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.999,-1.559,-0.619 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.983,-1.531,-0.609 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.34,-1.011,-1.572,-0.632 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.828,-1.359,-0.478 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.575,-1.003,-0.282 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.305,0.215,0.385,-0.56,-0.983,-0.268 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.59,0.49,0.69,-0.345,-0.709,-0.081 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.635,0.545,0.725,-0.268,-0.644,-0.013 -AutoETS,Naive,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.104,-0.173,0.297 -AutoETS,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.103,-0.161,0.297 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.793,-0.98,-0.63 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.646,-0.803,-0.513 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.636,-0.805,-0.495 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.596,-0.759,-0.449 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.12,0.07,0.19,-0.558,-0.711,-0.427 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.547,-0.691,-0.429 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.565,-0.731,-0.433 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.42,-0.572,-0.292 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.12,0.06,0.18,-0.184,-0.263,-0.121 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.19,-0.276,-0.11 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.41,0.31,0.51,0.257,0.075,0.415 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.055,-0.038,0.135 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.83,0.75,0.89,0.35,0.293,0.403 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.351,0.288,0.408 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.087,-0.745 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-0.919,-0.611 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.73,-0.902,-0.6 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.688,-0.867,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.648,-0.813,-0.522 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.636,-0.788,-0.52 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.655,-0.809,-0.529 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.502,-0.645,-0.39 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.13,0.275,-0.253,-0.347,-0.174 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.12,0.065,0.18,-0.259,-0.356,-0.182 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.365,0.275,0.455,0.211,0.013,0.392 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.058,-0.156,0.037 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.715,0.64,0.785,0.312,0.229,0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.314,0.222,0.396 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.758,-2.16,-1.399 -Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.532,-1.88,-1.209 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.516,-1.859,-1.189 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.454,-1.793,-1.135 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.397,-1.731,-1.095 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.379,-1.689,-1.099 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.04,0.01,0.08,-1.407,-1.747,-1.111 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.04,0.16,-1.184,-1.49,-0.898 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.821,-1.014,-0.653 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.83,-1.05,-0.635 -Naive,AutoETS,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.116,-0.422,0.148 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.17,0.11,0.25,-0.538,-0.676,-0.414 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.285,0.215,0.36,-0.454,-0.628,-0.298 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.003,-0.02,0.022 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.765,-2.19,-1.384 -Drift,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.539,-1.898,-1.199 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.522,-1.883,-1.184 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-1.46,-1.816,-1.126 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.12,-1.403,-1.749,-1.079 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.386,-1.705,-1.084 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.413,-1.773,-1.088 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.16,0.09,0.24,-1.19,-1.513,-0.886 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.826,-1.023,-0.65 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.835,-1.064,-0.623 -Drift,AutoETS,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.115,-0.423,0.139 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.13,0.29,-0.542,-0.69,-0.404 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.458,-0.656,-0.285 -Drift,Naive,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.003,-0.023,0.02 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/pairwise_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 901599a21956d305748b11cf1474b027525e8e4c..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.086,0.054,0.118 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.088,0.057,0.12 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.116,0.082,0.153 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.091,0.058,0.121 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.126,0.096,0.159 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.137,0.105,0.171 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.167,0.134,0.2 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.264,0.21,0.312 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.301,0.251,0.35 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.367,0.293,0.433 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.297,0.247,0.344 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.429,0.373,0.482 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.394,0.349,0.44 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.442,0.383,0.498 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.32,0.24,0.41,-0.094,-0.133,-0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.485,0.39,0.58,0.002,-0.014,0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.53,0.445,0.62,0.033,0.006,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.005,-0.04,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.615,0.78,0.044,0.019,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.73,0.65,0.81,0.056,0.034,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.825,0.75,0.9,0.089,0.052,0.125 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.195,0.146,0.244 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.91,0.85,0.97,0.236,0.189,0.285 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.307,0.237,0.376 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.231,0.186,0.275 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.375,0.321,0.43 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.337,0.293,0.386 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.39,0.336,0.445 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.097,-0.137,-0.06 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.515,0.42,0.61,-0.002,-0.02,0.014 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.53,0.72,0.03,0.007,0.051 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.003,-0.045,0.052 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.695,0.615,0.79,0.042,0.023,0.065 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.745,0.66,0.83,0.054,0.032,0.077 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.775,0.695,0.85,0.087,0.048,0.126 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.82,0.73,0.89,0.193,0.146,0.242 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.234,0.189,0.282 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.306,0.233,0.374 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.229,0.187,0.272 -TiRex,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.374,0.321,0.429 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.384 -TiRex,Drift,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.388,0.335,0.443 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.131,-0.18,-0.089 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.47,0.38,0.555,-0.034,-0.064,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.28,0.47,-0.031,-0.054,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.47,0.65,-0.028,-0.083,0.024 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.5,0.69,0.012,-0.012,0.036 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.505,0.685,0.024,-0.004,0.052 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.575,0.75,0.058,0.011,0.103 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.69,0.59,0.78,0.168,0.115,0.219 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.21,0.157,0.261 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.284,0.208,0.353 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.205,0.158,0.252 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.354,0.296,0.408 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.315,0.266,0.365 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.83,0.96,0.369,0.315,0.424 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.1,-0.138,-0.061 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.005,-0.054,0.039 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.003,-0.055,0.043 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.35,0.53,0.027,-0.024,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.039,-0.012,0.085 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.051,0.006,0.094 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.66,0.56,0.75,0.084,0.041,0.126 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.695,0.855,0.19,0.134,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.232,0.178,0.283 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.303,0.23,0.382 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.84,0.76,0.9,0.227,0.18,0.277 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.372,0.316,0.432 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.334,0.29,0.379 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.386,0.328,0.447 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.145,-0.189,-0.106 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.22,0.385,-0.046,-0.075,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.305,0.21,0.385,-0.044,-0.069,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.31,0.5,-0.012,-0.038,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.48,0.38,0.58,-0.041,-0.093,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.48,0.645,0.013,-0.011,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.57,0.76,0.047,0.005,0.087 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.157,0.105,0.208 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.2,0.148,0.254 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.275,0.196,0.35 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.196,0.147,0.243 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.346,0.29,0.403 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.307,0.258,0.357 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.361,0.303,0.417 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.159,-0.207,-0.117 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.35,-0.06,-0.086,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.255,0.17,0.34,-0.057,-0.083,-0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.315,0.495,-0.025,-0.055,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.054,-0.104,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.355,0.52,-0.013,-0.038,0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.54,0.73,0.034,-0.006,0.071 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.64,0.82,0.147,0.096,0.198 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.77,0.92,0.19,0.137,0.242 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.266,0.19,0.341 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.185,0.139,0.232 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.338,0.28,0.394 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.298,0.252,0.345 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.353,0.296,0.41 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.2,-0.25,-0.154 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.175,0.1,0.25,-0.097,-0.143,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.225,0.15,0.305,-0.095,-0.144,-0.05 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.335,0.25,0.425,-0.062,-0.115,-0.012 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.34,0.25,0.44,-0.092,-0.144,-0.042 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.335,0.24,0.43,-0.049,-0.095,-0.005 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.365,0.27,0.46,-0.036,-0.076,0.006 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.116,0.05,0.174 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.161,0.097,0.218 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.24,0.149,0.317 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.74,0.64,0.82,0.156,0.099,0.206 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.315,0.248,0.38 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.273,0.225,0.319 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.33,0.261,0.398 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.358,-0.454,-0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.242,-0.322,-0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.18,0.11,0.27,-0.239,-0.319,-0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.31,0.22,0.41,-0.201,-0.28,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.225,0.145,0.305,-0.235,-0.32,-0.155 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.187,-0.263,-0.117 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.26,0.18,0.36,-0.172,-0.246,-0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.132,-0.211,-0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.051,0.02,0.086 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.785,0.7,0.86,0.14,0.071,0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.045,0.009,0.078 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.224,0.169,0.277 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.835,0.77,0.9,0.177,0.138,0.221 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.242,0.192,0.293 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.431,-0.538,-0.335 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.09,0.03,0.15,-0.308,-0.399,-0.234 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.305,-0.393,-0.233 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.266,-0.353,-0.187 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.301,-0.395,-0.217 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.251,-0.341,-0.173 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.23,-0.235,-0.319,-0.159 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.192,-0.278,-0.107 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.054,-0.095,-0.02 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.555,0.46,0.655,0.093,0.015,0.175 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.006,-0.057,0.039 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.183,0.118,0.242 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.735,0.875,0.133,0.09,0.178 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.65,0.83,0.201,0.14,0.261 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.579,-0.764,-0.414 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.09,0.22,-0.443,-0.602,-0.31 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.44,-0.598,-0.303 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.23,0.16,0.32,-0.396,-0.547,-0.263 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.436,-0.617,-0.299 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.38,-0.538,-0.243 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.362,-0.518,-0.235 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.315,-0.464,-0.175 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.215,0.14,0.3,-0.162,-0.264,-0.077 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.445,0.345,0.54,-0.103,-0.212,-0.015 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.47,0.37,0.56,-0.11,-0.214,-0.027 -AutoETS,Naive,0.62,0.53,0.72,0.098,0.018,0.177 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.685,0.585,0.775,0.043,-0.061,0.128 -AutoETS,Drift,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.119,0.042,0.194 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.423,-0.524,-0.328 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.301,-0.38,-0.229 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.297,-0.374,-0.23 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.258,-0.337,-0.188 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.16,0.1,0.24,-0.294,-0.383,-0.22 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.243,-0.32,-0.172 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.227,-0.302,-0.161 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.26,0.18,0.36,-0.185,-0.26,-0.11 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.047,-0.085,-0.009 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.006,-0.041,0.054 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.53,0.44,0.63,0.099,0.026,0.177 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.188,0.138,0.239 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.138,0.099,0.18 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.206,0.158,0.26 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.751,-0.93,-0.594 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.601,-0.753,-0.473 -Naive,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.597,-0.75,-0.473 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.549,-0.689,-0.421 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.592,-0.761,-0.461 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.53,-0.674,-0.408 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.511,-0.649,-0.39 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.459,-0.613,-0.331 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.289,-0.383,-0.203 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.223,-0.319,-0.134 -Naive,AutoETS,0.38,0.28,0.47,-0.109,-0.215,-0.018 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.231,-0.314,-0.161 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.475,0.39,0.565,-0.061,-0.146,0.017 -Naive,Drift,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.023,-0.005,0.048 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.65,-0.787,-0.537 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.509,-0.63,-0.414 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.505,-0.623,-0.408 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.46,-0.575,-0.362 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.501,-0.61,-0.409 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.442,-0.555,-0.347 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.424,-0.527,-0.336 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.375,-0.469,-0.29 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.165,0.1,0.23,-0.215,-0.283,-0.161 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.125,0.265,-0.153,-0.217,-0.099 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.315,0.225,0.415,-0.045,-0.147,0.057 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.16,-0.219,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.525,0.435,0.61,0.058,-0.017,0.127 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.64,0.53,0.73,0.079,-0.001,0.153 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.792,-0.994,-0.621 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.639,-0.801,-0.507 -Drift,TiRex,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.635,-0.796,-0.504 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.04,0.17,-0.585,-0.735,-0.459 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.63,-0.807,-0.488 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.566,-0.715,-0.435 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.546,-0.695,-0.42 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.493,-0.66,-0.354 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.32,-0.415,-0.238 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.35,-0.252,-0.353,-0.163 -Drift,AutoETS,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.135,-0.24,-0.044 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.26,-0.351,-0.188 -Drift,Naive,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.023,-0.051,0.005 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.36,0.27,0.47,-0.086,-0.181,0.001 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/pairwise_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index c8b896eb4ab031e575e110c916ecd7ae5c8aee12..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,226 +0,0 @@ -model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.091,0.058,0.126 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.09,0.059,0.122 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.6,0.79,0.119,0.084,0.156 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.105,0.073,0.134 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.136,0.105,0.17 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.147,0.114,0.18 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.225,0.194,0.255 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.38,0.324,0.431 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.367,0.316,0.416 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.597,0.5,0.684 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.474,0.418,0.529 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.515,0.469,0.559 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.652,0.603,0.693 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.654,0.603,0.697 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.1,-0.144,-0.062 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.555,0.455,0.65,-0.001,-0.02,0.017 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.6,0.77,0.03,0.009,0.05 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.016,-0.033,0.063 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.05,0.03,0.073 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.815,0.735,0.885,0.061,0.039,0.083 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.835,0.95,0.148,0.11,0.185 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.318,0.262,0.374 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.304,0.256,0.352 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.558,0.449,0.655 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.421,0.365,0.479 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.467,0.42,0.515 -TiRex,Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.617,0.565,0.663 -TiRex,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.619,0.567,0.666 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.099,-0.139,-0.063 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.445,0.35,0.545,0.001,-0.017,0.019 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.475,0.655,0.031,0.006,0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.017,-0.031,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.73,0.645,0.81,0.051,0.028,0.076 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.76,0.685,0.835,0.062,0.04,0.085 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.905,0.845,0.96,0.148,0.114,0.183 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.319,0.262,0.376 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.304,0.255,0.357 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.558,0.449,0.655 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.422,0.362,0.483 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.467,0.422,0.518 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.617,0.564,0.664 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.62,0.565,0.667 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.21,0.4,-0.134,-0.185,-0.092 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.23,0.4,-0.031,-0.053,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.44,0.345,0.525,-0.032,-0.061,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.54,0.45,0.63,-0.015,-0.073,0.036 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.02,-0.003,0.044 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.61,0.52,0.695,0.032,0.003,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.121,0.079,0.163 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.297,0.235,0.356 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.282,0.23,0.336 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.545,0.433,0.645 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.403,0.341,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.45,0.397,0.501 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.605,0.55,0.652 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.607,0.551,0.656 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.118,-0.155,-0.078 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.016,-0.067,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.017,-0.066,0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.46,0.37,0.55,0.015,-0.037,0.068 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.46,0.65,0.035,-0.017,0.084 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.52,0.43,0.61,0.046,0.0,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.134,0.09,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.795,0.715,0.875,0.307,0.247,0.365 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.293,0.239,0.348 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.554,0.442,0.654 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.412,0.352,0.471 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.935,0.995,0.458,0.412,0.506 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.611,0.556,0.657 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.98,0.613,0.557,0.661 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.158,-0.205,-0.118 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.053,-0.078,-0.031 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.355,-0.054,-0.082,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.021,-0.046,0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.35,0.54,-0.036,-0.091,0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.505,0.67,0.012,-0.013,0.037 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.865,0.79,0.93,0.103,0.062,0.14 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.282,0.222,0.343 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.267,0.214,0.322 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.537,0.421,0.639 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.391,0.33,0.454 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.439,0.387,0.49 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.597,0.541,0.645 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.599,0.542,0.649 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.172,-0.22,-0.129 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.185,0.115,0.265,-0.065,-0.091,-0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.24,0.165,0.315,-0.066,-0.092,-0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.39,0.305,0.48,-0.033,-0.065,-0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.48,0.39,0.57,-0.049,-0.101,-0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.41,0.33,0.495,-0.012,-0.038,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.785,0.705,0.865,0.092,0.051,0.128 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.274,0.215,0.332 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.258,0.207,0.31 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.531,0.418,0.635 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.384,0.323,0.446 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.432,0.384,0.482 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.592,0.537,0.639 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.594,0.539,0.643 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.29,-0.343,-0.241 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.05,0.165,-0.173,-0.226,-0.124 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.095,0.04,0.155,-0.174,-0.223,-0.129 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.138,-0.195,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.155,-0.212,-0.099 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.135,0.07,0.21,-0.114,-0.163,-0.066 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.215,0.135,0.295,-0.101,-0.147,-0.053 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.2,0.124,0.268 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.73,0.63,0.81,0.183,0.114,0.245 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.486,0.353,0.603 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.321,0.25,0.391 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.374,0.322,0.43 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.55,0.489,0.605 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.553,0.487,0.611 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.613,-0.757,-0.479 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.466,-0.598,-0.355 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.468,-0.603,-0.355 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.422,-0.552,-0.307 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.205,0.125,0.285,-0.443,-0.575,-0.329 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.393,-0.521,-0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.377,-0.496,-0.274 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.25,-0.366,-0.142 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.41,0.6,-0.021,-0.061,0.02 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.755,0.67,0.835,0.38,0.234,0.517 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.151,0.111,0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.835,0.77,0.895,0.218,0.166,0.273 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.438,0.386,0.484 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.442,0.387,0.49 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.58,-0.711,-0.461 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.436,-0.543,-0.345 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.438,-0.556,-0.342 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.393,-0.505,-0.299 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.414,-0.533,-0.315 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.365,-0.476,-0.272 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.348,-0.449,-0.261 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.27,0.19,0.37,-0.224,-0.324,-0.129 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.4,0.59,0.021,-0.021,0.058 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.685,0.59,0.775,0.381,0.235,0.518 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.169,0.119,0.218 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.825,0.93,0.234,0.184,0.287 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.449,0.389,0.499 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.453,0.393,0.505 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.48,-2.169,-0.999 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.261,-1.901,-0.816 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-1.261,-1.898,-0.814 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-1.198,-1.815,-0.764 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.08,0.22,-1.242,-1.889,-0.793 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.158,-1.773,-0.727 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.133,-1.742,-0.717 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.945,-1.517,-0.545 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.245,0.165,0.33,-0.612,-1.072,-0.305 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.315,0.225,0.41,-0.616,-1.074,-0.308 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.57,0.47,0.67,-0.384,-0.762,-0.111 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.625,0.535,0.715,-0.27,-0.651,-0.012 -AutoETS,Naive,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.059,-0.228,0.255 -AutoETS,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.062,-0.223,0.256 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.901,-1.124,-0.718 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.728,-0.919,-0.575 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.73,-0.934,-0.567 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.676,-0.87,-0.517 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.701,-0.889,-0.542 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.642,-0.83,-0.491 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.622,-0.804,-0.477 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.473,-0.641,-0.333 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.13,0.07,0.19,-0.178,-0.24,-0.124 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.203,-0.279,-0.135 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.43,0.33,0.53,0.278,0.1,0.433 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.078,0.007,0.148 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.338,0.277,0.392 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.342,0.277,0.399 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.063,-1.27,-0.883 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-0.875,-1.061,-0.724 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.877,-1.074,-0.729 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.818,-1.003,-0.658 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.005,0.065,-0.846,-1.025,-0.7 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.781,-0.961,-0.632 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.76,-0.929,-0.623 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.598,-0.753,-0.474 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.165,0.105,0.23,-0.279,-0.376,-0.198 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.12,0.07,0.175,-0.306,-0.403,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.375,0.285,0.465,0.213,0.012,0.394 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.085,-0.174,-0.008 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.685,0.61,0.755,0.281,0.208,0.351 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.77,0.69,0.86,0.286,0.205,0.362 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.87,-2.256,-1.52 -Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-1.608,-1.963,-1.301 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.611,-1.972,-1.293 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.53,-1.877,-1.224 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.568,-1.912,-1.254 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.478,-1.816,-1.178 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.449,-1.767,-1.16 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-1.224,-1.535,-0.956 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.779,-0.938,-0.629 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.816,-0.997,-0.636 -Naive,AutoETS,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.063,-0.343,0.186 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.51,-0.644,-0.383 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.315,0.245,0.39,-0.391,-0.54,-0.263 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.007,-0.018,0.028 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.889,-2.297,-1.517 -Drift,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.626,-1.992,-1.31 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.629,-2.005,-1.301 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.547,-1.905,-1.228 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.02,0.1,-1.585,-1.953,-1.257 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.495,-1.849,-1.182 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.465,-1.797,-1.171 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-1.239,-1.572,-0.95 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.791,-0.961,-0.632 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.828,-1.021,-0.649 -Drift,AutoETS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.066,-0.344,0.183 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.52,-0.664,-0.384 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.23,0.14,0.31,-0.401,-0.567,-0.258 -Drift,Naive,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.007,-0.029,0.018 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/pivot_MASE.csv b/tables/pivot_MASE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 1101856c80599009023d9b1a4c4982578181e2db..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.6948579833,0.7187969186000001,0.7295309932,0.7577736165000001,0.7033446670000001,0.7033446670000001,0.7625422865,0.7138930444,0.9168897854,0.9168897854,0.8021815222,1.4293457361000002,0.9168897854,1.3670854222,1.4150881085 -ETT_1D,1.3413765406,1.3268087247,1.3611067371,1.3679488602,1.3461045465,1.3461045465,1.4991782178,1.4174248495,1.4122431037,1.4311893424,1.4485203425,1.437554375,1.4915469632,1.4615227122,1.493070532 -ETT_1H,1.1259593459,1.1177931379,1.1239074995,1.1128977698,1.126722477,1.126722477,1.1773747941,1.1439289261,1.2518551239,1.2616150196,1.284690664,1.6020946418,1.3227159047,1.7184142013,1.7823323561 -ETT_1W,2.6985268972,2.6203818352,2.6215325512,2.6388480518,2.6260535479,2.6260535479,2.8095121652,2.7153947044,2.6874358146,2.7471493707,2.8368188855,2.6393182441,2.6201185499,2.6201185499,2.7818783534 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.9599506578,0.9691232143,0.9509504834,1.0267654131,0.9859320366,0.9859320366,0.9622221749,0.9847669395,0.9983198527,0.9888675362,1.0222727765,1.0016712996,1.1753801207,2.1046903302,2.373789824 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.7939256021000001,0.8196171978,0.7539313166,0.8716561378000001,0.9188719391,0.9188719391,0.8527195266,0.9012445092,1.3516779911,1.3516779911,1.1797622806,1.6371768899,1.3516779911,1.7163837446,1.9650972819 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.6812013944,0.6919744542,0.7344527308000001,0.6999688034,0.8058940043,0.8058940043,0.7953950095000001,0.7671902281,0.9579580055,0.9670797236,0.9937342132,0.9723147042,0.8255932621000001,1.0149350727,1.1722532487 -M_DENSE_1D,0.7721472947,0.9065688429,0.8575514804000001,1.0278691722,0.9249126529,0.9249126529,0.9194900606,0.8999893558000001,1.050932514,1.168959753,1.0771913138,1.0868806507,1.3500254954,1.72924802,1.7668414689 -M_DENSE_1H,0.7132003566,0.7118568012000001,0.6693472657,0.7547859889,0.7173406545000001,0.7173406545000001,0.7953014020000001,0.775167995,1.1917704339,1.1833753219,1.4265921364,1.4834949349,1.2398526574,2.9336598204,3.2462087048 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.4999875762,0.5028743392,0.5037458638,0.5100538324,0.5100343925,0.5100343925,0.5231892934,0.5133618160000001,0.6992652752,0.6992652752,0.5704736672,0.6812952229,0.6992652752,0.7537395688,0.7757872137 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.4878765611,0.4985809825,0.5174781061,0.4938355877,0.5054399823,0.5054399823,0.5369530543000001,0.6129421994,0.5582147152,0.6365009349,0.7816119684,1.6334537315,0.6288121204,0.7531606604000001,0.8861734094 -australian_tourism,0.8548582992,0.9757973332,0.9190089649,1.1349816052,1.1608053998,1.167418807,0.8868052992000001,0.9146409764,0.9323052664,1.0124394981,1.0449349521,0.9667110204,1.0994521146,1.5829350567,1.7960279922 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3841207818,0.4680641032,0.4101674728,0.4671656853,0.4308821616,0.4308821616,0.4458486692,0.4647078621,0.7567537453000001,0.7748607972,0.7957254005000001,0.8231641016,1.0658712657,0.7707155721000001,0.7758078113 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.5169197944,0.7958700059,0.5787129625,0.7135649119,0.8001548681,0.8001548681,0.6193328173,0.4807818165,0.8068916121,0.9163295742,0.8740253941,0.8137418066000001,1.0666676717,0.7577504543,0.9386117981 -boomlet_1062,0.6776940987,0.6804959751,0.6916399154,0.669096311,0.7155932877000001,0.7110111948000001,0.6864002083,0.7574670104,1.0019575039,0.9510023935,1.0704423896,1.0502749806,0.9949683457,1.307870931,1.422512019 -boomlet_1209,0.7987706683,0.8520639537,0.8179153246,0.7440166652,0.8596275988000001,0.8460080897000001,1.107972646,0.8887982072,1.0454166675,1.0378800323,1.1056064071,1.1827230135,1.1827230135,1.0545734336,1.2621289177 -boomlet_1225,0.2322508868,0.2338512692,0.2365234795,0.2291020931,0.2436207845,0.2540221924,0.2509252394,0.2531870103,0.2904167694,0.2751876371,0.3003114491,0.3006939878,0.3736491907,0.3736491907,0.38068424 -boomlet_1230,1.3704917157,1.3783150604,1.3669883226,1.2932815419,1.4190498379,1.347504774,1.6398564855000002,1.4532188179,1.5513275237,1.5864985932,1.5854205097,1.7204862029,1.8986209303,1.563197,1.7478394522 -boomlet_1282,0.5228616907,0.4966357089,0.4938256811,0.4982816626,0.5229602404,0.5646901456,0.506661869,0.5169242862,0.6397695821,0.5924898465,0.6909553164000001,0.6889630667000001,0.8299194032,0.8299194032,0.8508297266 -boomlet_1487,0.5106600397000001,0.5187314221,0.5025569448,0.4821270726,0.5276634634,0.5268262285,0.6139593947,0.5573472172,0.6620511075000001,0.6561515279,0.6861485358,0.6618622173,0.7188988334,0.7369858245,0.8583652247 -boomlet_1631,0.7130379666000001,0.7478094028000001,0.7223220370000001,0.7231858750000001,0.7328154067,0.7407561889000001,0.8463187427000001,0.7619771372,0.9935726652,0.9935726652,0.7886354003,0.7850787279,0.9935726652,0.8639891085,0.8923058214 -boomlet_1676,0.7074172167,0.7093011606,0.6981823962,0.6906502502,0.7128114239000001,0.7192465308,0.958687274,0.7138061614,0.952905272,0.952905272,0.7772233453,0.7609898935,0.952905272,0.8198719238000001,0.8566079879 -boomlet_1855,0.5381849547,0.5278191175,0.5502667915,0.5280890902,0.543045447,0.5502545471,0.6402148315,0.59756436,0.7137233958,0.7334421170000001,0.7479719187,0.7732640618000001,0.8339307546,0.680593968,0.6861913673000001 -boomlet_1975,0.1607432077,0.2344681763,0.2045403051,0.149489781,0.2722386223,0.2157351982,0.2447173505,0.2358591523,0.5885200818,0.6455594326,0.5697333157000001,0.6992926357,0.9041727794,0.6991117215,0.7004386998000001 -boomlet_2187,0.8118519659000001,0.8085306304000001,0.8936367348,0.881456274,0.9069913111,0.878419842,1.0030305987,0.9507442206,1.18136692,1.2812206603,1.2716040444,1.2537471952,1.3439772563,1.15749623,1.1700732484 -boomlet_285,0.3587658623,0.4007113979,0.4216519838,0.3609691019,0.470509393,0.5250469024000001,0.3931546055,0.5605665968,0.7526380608000001,0.7883015466000001,0.7305756426000001,0.8132574193000001,1.2487633378,1.2487633378,1.2792135195 -boomlet_619,0.4234249126,0.4418338294,0.4363557101,0.403240616,0.4306276617,0.5940973904,0.4305322873,0.435636804,1.0046773699,0.7170247042,1.0200015813,1.0937660371,1.1235570145,1.1235570145,1.1484320675 -boomlet_772,0.331309455,0.3435360993,0.3429964064,0.3279337304,0.3651670055,0.3956163828,0.3608040826,0.3920487456,0.5801758985000001,0.5361147759,0.6163309557000001,0.6702469495000001,0.6290173275000001,0.6290173275000001,0.6468050268000001 -boomlet_963,0.8390323132,0.8276719248000001,0.8600331800000001,0.8253396814,0.8725943582000001,0.8956312939000001,0.8758112548,0.849173272,1.1173343797,1.1099255146,1.1004605986,1.2932431478,1.1186074012,1.1186074012,1.1367798246 -ecdc_ili,2.7551221016,2.8841261459,2.6316220318,3.0233475859,2.9286752636,3.1427261211,2.8110944773,3.0367688213,4.3217227901,4.1963805493,4.2528905756,4.5974303581,4.1680850656,4.1680850656,4.3553339847 -entsoe_15T,0.5846139379,0.5986061889000001,0.5903166384,0.7502653602,0.5933312818,0.6061735307,0.6094490505,0.7577799507,0.9314587074,0.9314587074,0.7298063048,4.0070290526,0.9314587074,1.9045500461,2.0547959624 -entsoe_1H,0.5379602554,0.585380389,0.5848723966,0.5907812391,0.5924217639,0.556447549,0.5377189816,0.8117895189000001,1.1144887827,1.1176425426,1.1626008244,2.0475241128,1.1014887222,2.0553481854,2.1575810109 -entsoe_30T,0.54381558,0.6645923404,0.6957880272,0.6254143824,0.5973972755,0.6326216104,0.6350493808000001,0.7796412031000001,1.0577908951,1.2299298482,1.0040370692,3.2738378374,1.2161814769,2.0733355971,2.0462297626 -epf_be,0.6470253268,0.6743990368,0.6101898021000001,0.7065052879,0.6709379406,0.7272945434,0.6701844387,0.7222255864,0.9813953164,1.0947820348,1.0193650689,1.3929299519,1.0270532112,1.3609414277,1.3744478654 -epf_de,0.6042262072,1.2971032281,1.2798889483,1.3369704527,1.2281783328,1.2655265893,0.5674762585,1.3227461317,1.3821017935,1.6231053542,1.407198376,1.741711499,1.7085955085,1.7417240476,1.7695511326000002 -epf_fr,0.4500649094,0.5040405462,0.4906901724,0.5253012985000001,0.5034595344,0.5638378752000001,0.4181703173,0.5243569292,0.7410301647,0.988839379,0.8447495724,0.9665291295,0.8501188428,1.160344512,1.1771067225 -epf_np,0.8501928867,1.22255132,1.4402381231,1.3589475358,1.1997562864,1.2409440197,0.8709423510000001,1.0947012554,1.514694987,1.7096191588,1.514020593,2.3244018164,1.7613036184,2.3154975383,2.3147871788 -epf_pjm,0.4718977319,0.5057793683,0.5310653587,0.5821871052,0.5630774342,0.5357283349,0.5339815846,0.5214143203,0.5294817721,0.5572886801,0.6832480189,0.9847286701,0.581167898,0.9849340527,0.9983941216 -ercot_1D,1.1382701719,1.0650322509,1.068637649,1.1712118632,1.2043414824,1.150459162,1.2627737925,1.1023893836,1.5207401049,1.3979692163,1.5801931826,1.5952697559,1.5987746508,1.5840542166,1.5904988169 -ercot_1H,1.3575339606,1.3770443905,1.4902437934,1.4168899965,1.3940551857,1.3914155571,1.5551131815,1.4647042938,1.610467295,1.4621684481,1.5835893744,3.196839145,1.5757631018,3.1089998641,3.1208481544 -ercot_1M,0.9503422041,1.0121701532,0.9788665964,1.2709588716,1.2434972767,0.9921791164,1.2288572299,1.0612308441,0.9720301101,0.9971198091,1.2051001185,0.9527701547,1.112833491,4.4343715733,4.8730234607 -ercot_1W,1.2194616983,1.2277888798,1.1887344162,1.3470027368,1.3362468506,1.2261966297,1.6253611467,1.4770568791,2.6623042168,2.6323348127,2.66207578,2.6788985082,2.6319098716,2.6319098716,2.6294908648 -favorita_stores_1D,1.1401981382,1.1934094375,1.1675502677,1.2803612723,1.2046882591,1.2688834676,1.1942878338,1.2200293401,1.3400112075,1.4187797295,1.3758675565,1.3798606395,1.7590444116,1.8830413748,1.8964809396 -favorita_stores_1M,1.9751999633,2.2147063817,2.2337935781,2.2864924589,2.3235561779,2.4178143615,2.1757603336,2.4060388473,2.1181450497,2.207495882,2.1335008012,2.1221172271,2.2823009488,1.9974006051,2.0640825589 -favorita_stores_1W,2.2987283752,2.4234607638,2.2900534378,2.5080339706,2.5772702404,2.4748929287,2.5267645799,2.561243423,2.433980351,2.580066785,2.4768022229,2.5164520445000003,2.5171133578,2.5171133578,2.55263811 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.8493705653,1.3492617128,1.1514968036,1.1514968036,1.1514968036,1.1514968036,1.6727335501,1.324712294,1.2657781225,1.7409399844,1.2511063806,1.2765051213,1.820047183,1.8618151915,1.8593809033 -favorita_transactions_1M,1.2531106718,1.3596174423,1.331599249,1.6656037195,1.6105440091,1.6365070781000002,1.4261630874,1.6184833791000002,1.3044406101,1.4642003185,1.4898451778,1.3424992981,1.5197338218,1.4299319146,1.6051275429 -favorita_transactions_1W,1.498824744,1.7464561746,1.7479484715,1.9303724027,1.6846164482,1.7479484715,2.436781004,2.0992640534,1.6323769125,1.7908498043,1.7230820362,1.6826500128,1.5401800863,1.5401800863,1.6333667243 -fred_md_2025/cee,4.1602404727,3.9913296592,5.4995170613,5.4995170613,5.4995170613,5.4995170613,4.6737821611,5.6396642877000005,4.1492831073,6.3656916747,4.7268175598,4.1316582891,11.870151993,6.7148852073,4.6902098373 -fred_md_2025/macro,6.7212231389,6.2436277327,6.8925263969,6.8925263969,6.8925263969,6.8925263969,7.7467550529,6.9855690276,6.4760151224,7.2903875617,6.7085954414,6.5541834396,11.2729488966,7.1693509539,6.6706675334 -fred_qd_2025/cee,2.7861575553,2.5007210568,2.5230363656,2.1472810882,2.7932979017,2.9552801855,2.9044098381000003,4.1237296063,2.2117006108,2.3066503643000003,2.5784767122,2.4969928698,5.7264703884,4.3666041366,2.5885780238 -fred_qd_2025/macro,4.2345766276,4.2532915346,4.2312964035,4.0310227379,4.3026427477,4.4204306869,5.2932799619,5.0800217147,4.2291679217,4.4837099549,4.4089305862,4.4466602526,6.2532543175,4.9115310592,4.3735327936 -gvar,0.7105251308,0.7074487020000001,0.7192074299,0.7017595921,0.7279795748,0.7294646076,0.9010948704,0.8613958999,0.6831004748,0.7032889301,0.6996326439,0.7021303869000001,0.9186013653,0.7430842013000001,0.6965206846 -hermes,0.7761148416,0.8309937727000001,0.7871785508,1.2023433786,0.8853610442000001,0.8579267331,0.9123318673,0.959480348,1.8121264962,1.5317415273,1.8477529328,1.9852238872,1.9945193434,1.9945193434,2.0472163243 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.6889480283,0.6853563806,0.6882027162000001,0.6820968126,0.6860304896,0.6860304896,0.7080055758,0.7291028689,0.8130155521,0.7735716427,0.8693462262,0.8639978187,0.9949475154,1.0417563414,1.0525564501 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.7539268543000001,0.756678049,0.7507699991,0.7789897858,0.7733116574000001,0.7733116574000001,0.7740136921,0.8055524179,0.9004451123,0.9125112599,0.9154643589,1.0341883947,1.1617080217,1.1617080217,1.1894416421 -hospital,0.8734575212000001,0.8749408193,0.8629412822,0.9208820395,0.8888399515000001,0.8888399515000001,0.8808779374,0.9575868855,0.8766229998,0.9191221959,0.9215507227,0.9080008209,1.0188066511,1.10504708,1.1736654928 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.7170504383,0.717979448,0.7193032164000001,0.7172821424,0.7187636137000001,0.7195191066000001,0.7244514742,0.7225061727000001,0.7213815906000001,0.7209334531,0.7428646667000001,0.7211231617,1.0268297216,0.9746856833,0.9816293494 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.7508052527,0.7609831368000001,0.7544838609000001,0.7781410151,0.7643243630000001,0.7622844235,0.7534416615,0.7598582682,0.7551866274,0.7540567649000001,0.7779256247,0.7540854723,1.0436412698,1.0436412698,1.0831848605 -jena_weather_10T,0.4309090154,0.4789954609,0.4373143782,0.4522280598,0.4805248693,0.4805248693,0.516391649,0.4900412345,0.7300235109000001,0.7300235109000001,0.4933654141,0.6119521222000001,0.7300235109000001,0.52703557,0.5533241331000001 -jena_weather_1D,1.4035573159,1.366539178,1.3763415621,1.411132821,1.3722903668,1.3722903668,1.4445769356,1.4276462192,1.5642224637000002,1.5277037002,1.6406694179,1.8504210406,1.8965701168,1.6994317303000002,1.7748810582 -jena_weather_1H,0.4373910122,0.437909858,0.4392356659,0.4476285627,0.4542878163,0.4542878163,0.5111184304,0.4459427668,0.4663908322,0.5091821891,0.4846005807,0.567832109,0.7399001552000001,0.5374935394,0.544552084 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.5199208546,0.5903298173,0.5903298173,0.5903298173,0.5903298173,0.5903298173,0.6951920674000001,0.5903298173,0.8187009928000001,0.8187009928000001,0.8117980851000001,0.7837343985,0.8187009928000001,0.7815687018,0.8809057293 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.8993091785,0.8990205149,0.8934942013,0.8967645421,0.9125687218,0.9069594704,0.9150751748,0.9235145261,0.9701127541,0.9552154519,0.9764039863,0.9888169951,1.0844353298,1.0306171345,1.0552765612 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.5419430891,0.5339588215000001,0.6348935773000001,0.5309168604,0.5156770351000001,0.6672184767,0.6765431227,0.5884124519,0.7681145469,0.7706658108000001,0.8416018012,0.8428842456000001,0.8221839563000001,0.8375670849,0.8782613104 -m5_1D,0.8798761359,0.8753446971000001,0.8851788247,0.8851788247,0.8851788247,0.8851788247,1.2236286692,0.9677992163,1.2236286692,1.0630838856,1.0805686532,1.0632996272,1.2236286692,1.3575007837,1.3783870781 -m5_1M,1.1638225815,1.1629101784,1.1576052027,1.2421800194,1.1773037824,1.1852216988,1.1871283177,1.199580668,1.1819548335,1.2131357033,1.2589934317,1.2139006267,1.3266370526,1.2671440715,1.3915794965 -m5_1W,1.1400355515,1.1476955468,1.1647431618,1.1448252405,1.1500678738,1.1647431618,1.1604987437,1.1330759513,1.151797309,1.1567620351,1.1697733846,1.1672033988,1.3382424884,1.3382424884,1.3824089509 -proenfo_gfc12,0.8120010668000001,1.1241553096,1.0781317629,1.0781317629,1.0781317629,1.0781317629,1.0338246822,0.9935522058,1.5463300248,1.3848285732,1.5236522096,2.8114372878,1.428177457,2.6291046656,2.7528132313 -proenfo_gfc14,0.5386864242,0.9119046182,0.9285112769,0.9285112769,0.9285112769,0.9285112769,0.6406314316,0.463580052,1.1044049767,1.1681324943,1.185656643,1.3185527521,1.1988543772,3.7072504144,3.965045322 -proenfo_gfc17,0.6103924746,1.1380901313,1.0977005202,1.0977005202,1.0977005202,1.0977005202,0.8553343104000001,0.5526319982,1.4215223964,1.3821477017,1.3687323787,2.4127647331,1.5845048132,2.9066491955,3.063129907 -redset_15T,0.9320904759,1.0022286368,0.8687945356000001,0.9533624543,1.1189004499,1.4783946982,2.1719934434,1.3649343142,1.0323384841,1.0323384841,1.597597259,1.0323384841,1.0323384841,32.0340548113,33.693269119600004 -redset_1H,1.5030009285,1.4573336789,1.4842036779,1.4166961403,1.5362745519,2.6712489552000003,1.4385006498,1.5646420584,1.761972427,1.8532418262,2.0202444582,2.2287068299,1.6826194185,8.1555516024,8.1864715752 -redset_5T,0.7864618392,0.9453718328,0.8482881600000001,0.8563860838,0.9344199171,1.1699231408,0.8423602104,1.0328105291,2.1640102467,2.0719155469,2.3397807513,1.0410587245,1.0410587245,3.1480546918,3.498018604 -restaurant,0.8599090122,0.8522179843000001,0.8503096514,0.8858745474,0.8659689945,0.8659689945,0.8689264082,0.8630231098000001,0.8717386477,0.9400606666,0.9184892419,0.9391232286,1.1194990361,1.3993248163,1.4760866124 -rohlik_orders_1D,1.1869082024,1.2033753235,1.2504095981,1.3775879584,1.176067019,1.3016096527,1.547892006,1.3992895671,1.3812243729,1.5623634243,1.5185276042,1.4870315996,1.7782872152,2.4354371077,2.4953294972 -rohlik_orders_1W,1.5470873451,1.5828643626,1.6591862082,1.7980310562,1.8740325635,1.7219242334,1.9886917666,2.0951936703,1.71276995,1.7324467216,1.7121743288,1.7583263983,1.7311823321,1.7311823321,1.7566346002 -rohlik_sales_1D,1.1015615422,1.3844809879,1.3237942192,1.4539084863,1.4020532381,1.3870630122,1.6150435602000002,1.3442522277,1.4759756392,1.5092369137,1.4939231302,1.4985533338,1.6150435602000002,1.7485285579,1.7665358583000002 -rohlik_sales_1W,1.559672095,1.7354311654,1.6890705942,1.8031174582,1.8214908337,1.8466635227,1.5204800642,1.8996288065,1.8249729553,2.03785374,1.8363584706,1.8899729917,1.9154827568,1.9154827568,1.990816422 -rossmann_1D,0.3557646389,0.6600669122,0.6105528999000001,0.6814055866000001,0.6480208978,0.6371181918000001,0.2944517637,0.6154624197,0.6678317895,0.6544020781000001,0.7447792464,0.6912520753,0.7885548119,1.6195142378,1.6307564391 -rossmann_1W,0.3711869984,0.6218198341,0.654277349,0.6318509753,0.6439797931,0.6451761650000001,0.3046311863,0.6790382249,0.6512769978,0.6688824183000001,0.6643635235,0.6684782378,0.7960291356,0.7960291356,0.8779634547 -solar_1D,0.7564704559000001,0.7780027014,0.7870867805,0.7929503108,0.8134821640000001,0.8068081935,0.7848225151,0.7866198335,0.7950641496,0.8072395918,0.8376174094000001,0.8017773736,0.9900696291,0.9666968847,1.1102918555 -solar_1W,1.1789596563,1.5031298228,1.4613966872000002,1.798309645,2.0395669896,1.2719881759,1.0931583831,1.1001413936,1.7922537528,1.7335090246,2.0936290706,1.6267514936,1.9187253475,1.9187253475,2.5896105932 -solar_with_weather_15T,0.8640995981,1.0486903807,1.1152651553,0.9403149212,1.0763836253,0.9765226278,0.9444749979,1.1181879294,1.0500997059,1.0500997059,1.2728696954,2.4161932928,1.0500997059,1.989464318,2.2100824084 -solar_with_weather_1H,1.0201461351,1.1582715132,1.0512633641,1.0585275477,1.1358492836,1.0720382243,0.8628512004000001,1.3031564924,1.3147978753,1.1133137476,1.5354303629,2.2682380188,1.0619359164,2.2682071361,2.2668539311 -uci_air_quality_1D,1.3132142732,1.4312317693,1.5147124464,1.5881022678,1.4417059353,1.3886570934,1.5308266811,1.3990875663,1.3836855571,1.5585347706,1.4428092347,1.3629041949,1.7337243007,2.1090746157,2.2085178759 -uci_air_quality_1H,1.020596853,1.1061991604,1.1225931257,1.1111893485,1.196474258,1.1161574722,1.1751368971,1.1924183278,1.2991890754,1.3697649929,1.3457656206,10.6979097385,1.4424742241,1.681575288,1.7613798983 -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,9.4466999399,8.929376688,7.9247162242,7.7416129012,8.1949951543,10.4547608004,16.8706126207,18.3255496813,8.8341213691,9.559789598,20.1075262656,8.1052795609,30.7671471585,25.4400086758,18.9781830611 -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.5004449026,2.3835910907,2.5834199323,2.4705193977,2.5489344845,2.5913882505,2.5101268505,2.5802902251,3.1171908684,4.1917555777,2.8839990291,3.0620508133,2.8996526561,2.9050530888,2.9572817188 -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,3.5475305311,3.609263087,5.0226305819,3.6488116454,3.6495679007,4.3362420429,3.1721656359,5.8508558031,2.5352192342,10.5120021053,5.7016692031,2.8531029011,8.7736590065,8.7736590065,5.5370707385 -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,6.2817282977,5.4013881506,4.6024864277,6.3940786735,4.5611907188,5.1432817198,4.8064190531,4.2487016855,6.252228662,13.5408520302,5.813977235,6.0384476605,5.8035952813,5.8035952813,6.0322653616 -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,4.5459837539,4.4705040881,4.1803353814,4.8383241752,4.2104220413,4.2680470788,4.582072345,4.1215258287,6.2345012475,8.1828726428,5.820038846,6.304086527,5.2400849649,5.9561884523,6.0662829111 -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,19.8762832276,21.7652806241,21.5163025658,18.8192829039,21.8269429168,20.0769214614,19.7677867998,27.7918750277,15.8503479662,15.7434113202,21.4127050868,17.1124689005,26.0772211706,26.0772211706,20.9787577016 -us_consumption_1M,1.7363781866,1.7646639097,1.931250606,1.8634380437,1.7680304079,1.8462616555,1.8857443126,2.1034739353,1.7231034056,1.8263458048,1.9291138764,1.7093004134,3.1370276717,2.1549055801,1.9442203469 -us_consumption_1Q,2.164693101,2.2808950609,2.3646254512,2.1108276882,2.2065057075,2.2129312479,3.7648783035,3.2110317266,2.2422219291,2.3510275878,2.6435650081,2.2553091192,3.8594112114,2.9276892853,2.513273914 -us_consumption_1Y,4.5651596428,4.5542723191,4.8010821783,4.7990321771,5.8237789501,5.0426493832,5.0551837428,6.4807387204,4.453578755,4.2587442225,5.619694319,4.7574382247,7.3594854558,7.3594854558,5.51566537 -walmart,0.8167399684000001,0.8862297442,0.8614820536000001,1.1257617414,1.0559167299,0.9670980075,0.8317842871000001,0.9842192099,1.3563890452,1.2473824838,1.4178781632000002,1.7226801126,1.5240930953,1.5240930953,1.7491246911 -world_co2_emissions,3.253441165,3.218938845,3.4342160899,3.2426033895,3.4946390667,3.3725385277,3.2702702323,4.0694291919,3.1762491991,3.3062345239,3.2294516112,3.2990698517,3.6978220012,3.6978220012,3.1983782167 -world_life_expectancy,1.4501894619,1.3385484305,1.4011006524,2.0742068807,2.147670042,1.6264414789,1.3478888107,1.7987773288,1.5403532831,1.4974247187,1.7124546782,1.5355990211,2.2537764593,2.2537764593,1.8420117568 -world_tourism,3.7800260773,3.8100716189,4.1100857021,3.7867597144,3.9098929656,3.9050210198,3.3270326033,4.7392839763,3.0020746256,3.0968725539,2.9312038042,3.4851749726,3.8281690603,3.8281690603,2.8785102461000003 diff --git a/tables/pivot_MASE_baseline_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_MASE_baseline_imputed.csv deleted file mode 100644 index ece3b69ffd27a50651d6ee5d1bd42588640e4ce5..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE_baseline_imputed.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 6cfe2e5f0e1e500b883cd628b0b2a1886aaca973..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_SQL.csv b/tables/pivot_SQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 0625c9d9e914f6144b3dd53b46ecf0cf4893e263..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.5458017173,0.5682984928,0.5771622748,0.5930359987,0.5737369405,0.5737369405,0.6023976568,0.597092731,0.7624529909000001,0.7624529909000001,1.2626027246,1.0985228656,0.7624529909000001,1.3268766411,1.3649829587 -ETT_1D,1.1315469549,1.1014613305,1.1440582667,1.1431991194,1.1321824157,1.1321824157,1.2302029516,1.2461046836,1.2707356751,1.2587593653,1.3559628802,1.3789083105,1.3728451389,1.4222525092,1.4528881358 -ETT_1H,0.8829665685,0.8735827998000001,0.8822637379,0.8726715063,0.9435863248,0.9435863248,0.93321436,0.9634114324,1.2717102201,1.052404926,1.7645010362,2.0612851578,1.2068899431,2.3136589326,2.4221862813 -ETT_1W,2.3200722308,2.264520334,2.2485701754,2.2807752001,2.2795034775,2.2795034775,2.4105571965,2.4688224531,2.4073690783,2.4423112635,2.39380306,2.603472326,2.5092678823,2.5092678823,2.63212947 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.7791980564000001,0.7923359463,0.7738014961,0.8309489631,0.8051325971000001,0.8051325971000001,0.7804864737,0.8625023325000001,0.8198461462000001,0.8099517857,0.8246251865,0.8528499579000001,1.0461703776,2.4710363002,2.6285047085 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6390561899,0.6558214249000001,0.6206804936,0.6981449455000001,0.7646847805,0.7646847805,0.6785128884,0.7695770803,1.5008790861,1.5008790861,2.6385256214,2.8320370482,1.5008790861,3.5094786471,3.7005853436 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.5325340237,0.5488731010000001,0.5953126390000001,0.5612747662,0.7101241523,0.7101241523,0.6414697138000001,0.6606205367,1.0436727136,1.0012742792,1.1550368249,1.1098659427,0.7515879948,1.8612988657,2.0191661844 -M_DENSE_1D,0.6463243558,0.7460414464,0.7075343346,0.8417803746,0.7589658968,0.7589658968,0.7560067856,0.7844887054,0.9647884446,0.9701754768,1.0734765679,1.1434781616,1.262653406,2.1937270172,2.2311998044 -M_DENSE_1H,0.5854558830000001,0.5867504602,0.556059175,0.6211696495,0.5952543328000001,0.5952543328000001,0.6460899053,0.6604636921,1.1265341106,1.0625833478,59.0195299046,3.0980400553,1.3040659305,3.8689657918,4.0939855017 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.3932968835,0.3955981846,0.3966454244,0.4014560725,0.413175328,0.413175328,0.4285012823,0.4438538338,0.5602190946,0.5602190946,2.3550253131,0.5126750232,0.5602190946,1.3787889942,1.4174386493 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.3977234578,0.4050422075,0.4156030479,0.4183039495,0.4264135301,0.4264135301,0.4935099732,0.5170317067,0.6894973186000001,0.6584161139,12313683383.147636,0.983741696,0.8375139431,2.6856786961,2.9588624372 -australian_tourism,0.6769555487000001,0.7859715496,0.7323027992000001,0.8897084606000001,0.9175231952,0.9282641589,0.6989805801,0.7908486579,0.7300394505000001,0.8009680433,0.7615891772000001,0.8129699438,0.8947401082,1.5916364579,1.7922461374 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3010456253,0.3662951077,0.3261346281,0.3700783044,0.3419873985,0.3419873985,0.3540742815,0.4121569345,0.6336059931,0.6185436377,0.7179372865,0.6824779096,0.8851906828,0.6654111557,0.669961201 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.4108408982,0.6788551053,0.4610602059,0.5953979102,0.7570014323,0.7570014323,0.4854874227,0.4004194445,0.7197078839000001,0.8247104427,0.7310899228000001,0.7495634618,0.9226397442,0.6779088155,0.7933793841 -boomlet_1062,0.5523284751,0.5548997157000001,0.5732470754,0.5478320341,0.5927620413,0.6387175665,0.7083924656,0.6467962229,0.9851058144,0.7541477798,1.3088562197,1.3443713412,0.9105473153,4.3036993716,4.6588724435 -boomlet_1209,0.6799099954000001,0.7293072077,0.7045922388,0.645080569,0.7562347037,0.7840808515000001,1.0159986311,0.7807326884,2.4692530935,1.1085996591,1.26373922,2.7292377595,1.26373922,3.2386174338,3.5173454757 -boomlet_1225,0.1864128972,0.1876278604,0.1900803084,0.1833820954,0.1948503398,0.2030750841,0.2145097606,0.222714996,0.2803755249,0.2348969847,0.3176935124,0.3296940654,0.7453858177,0.7453858177,0.758570547 -boomlet_1230,1.201031991,1.1859324313,1.1874247824,1.1375594979,1.2863247224,1.266108854,1.6130013764000002,1.3047326747,3.3900350214,1.8500253092,393376667139840.8,3.9779653374,2.0369976474,5.548152717,5.9878393324 -boomlet_1282,0.4211360586,0.4089033383,0.4034160537,0.4069384603,0.4269211119,0.461810646,0.4252624699,0.4521593639,0.7391125197,0.5565242655,0.9135627329,0.9716916511,1.5394068156,1.5394068156,1.5690882811 -boomlet_1487,0.4233194118,0.4270074608,0.4122943587,0.4003928432,0.455761865,0.4824435432,0.7454959652,0.4989559922,0.6807093562000001,0.6560424612,0.7236915730000001,0.8366025999000001,0.8422519568,5.651237163,6.1210676162 -boomlet_1631,0.5718706997,0.5981611197000001,0.5790200299,0.5808311118,0.5907980989,0.6194052562,0.6970609561000001,0.6443979368,0.8513712543,0.8513712543,0.7214099148,0.7282739185,0.8513712543,1.3493380035,1.3890549561 -boomlet_1676,0.5686748679,0.5712459165,0.562625503,0.5544290679,0.5727147225,0.6076896737,0.8311081643,0.6145915641,0.8503822276,0.8503822276,0.7563535779,0.7835312638,0.8503822276,1.3195857419,1.3578116859 -boomlet_1855,0.4615736804,0.4500166174,0.4725778373,0.4524286557,0.464879974,0.4695926826,0.6233137320000001,0.5254199296000001,1.1233499934,1.0829482214,1.1848850765,1.204414213,1.4642665486,3.2734556686,3.2968156747 -boomlet_1975,0.1333320334,0.1921381366,0.1671766157,0.1262384828,0.2195469335,0.1793929044,0.2069952508,0.2023056594,0.5478588809,0.5505765392,0.6113593807000001,0.6292227757000001,0.8427719263000001,0.6114911297,0.6131317081000001 -boomlet_2187,0.7122729535,0.7105001322000001,0.8020040101,0.7637500168,0.8067927027,0.7746853019000001,0.9340158386,0.8515537165,1.2729717642,1.3028566624,1.3069851719,1.389411779,1.6696910974,3.0072867381,3.0279388411 -boomlet_285,0.2900640673,0.3453755039,0.3965655545,0.3185360094,0.4274151922,0.476702899,0.7127008195,0.4879211264,1.2619335645,1.1887776805,1.2033358677,1.3318503729,6.0221504695,6.0221504695,6.1302545159 -boomlet_619,0.3232653903,0.3410809257,0.3398320588,0.309878085,0.3294344187,0.4708614915,0.3305066441,0.3705071077,0.7771722948,0.5544648012,0.8944230183,0.8352158487,1.2751647052,1.2751647052,1.3005697258 -boomlet_772,0.2827797609,0.2962086426,0.2948668716,0.2810029794,0.3139115775,0.3391929948,0.3295303206,0.3520560133,1.1794168073,0.7834129974,531470228.16674185,1.4390517121,2.4909982911,2.4909982911,2.5366947218 -boomlet_963,0.7165952965,0.7184034841,0.7387586339000001,0.7199999526,0.7505200217,0.7786787266,0.7960581525,0.7521897883,1.3348061563,1.1056032467,1.6089011238,1.4536844039,1.6474289575,1.6474289575,1.6758761104 -ecdc_ili,2.2713937157,2.4106397038000003,2.2150356629,2.554483793,2.4544933394,2.6531174908,2.3819418015,2.7054455064000003,3.8373720704,3.6414550365,4.0788004388,3.8437922843,3.7763740551,3.7763740551,3.9298378029 -entsoe_15T,0.4539692649,0.4692753774,0.4709170997,0.5909160927,0.478288762,0.5061680935,0.4837394321,0.6669136238000001,0.7806910892000001,0.7806910892000001,3.0289340615,0.5794334285,0.7806910892000001,1.5177144586,1.6350644474 -entsoe_1H,0.4292730862,0.4701221987,0.4680893711,0.4795713506,0.4870732428,0.4574194964,0.4419444303,0.7440774844,0.8919673675,0.8725110581000001,1.9050298297,0.9723015525,1.0561195152,1.91535268,2.0110168444 -entsoe_30T,0.4335549531,0.5229834486,0.5657877209000001,0.4958133037,0.4883587468,0.5294317223,0.5116608489,0.7215674609,0.8465224818,0.980742171,2.492761432,0.7996836131,1.0103240484,1.6091505549,1.5911802499 -epf_be,0.5032959121,0.5270142745,0.4937475347,0.5648275564,0.5281380165,0.573131006,0.5324134798,0.6465423658,1.2134724304,1.0560628345,1.5343230451,1.4843337008000002,1.1502802436,3.0844576332,3.1070840486 -epf_de,0.491116807,1.0321659189,1.0300427797,1.1058453126,1.0163698014,1.0208059246,0.4402987265,1.1830726521,1.1665641061,1.2777053882,1.4013079444,1.4943830235,1.3876764191,1.4012218785,1.4206596948 -epf_fr,0.3617711398,0.4013687759,0.4091649941,0.4256540696,0.4092032808,0.4389128912,0.3307410445,0.461064889,1.1455989836,1.1580732451,0.8989034107,1.5911735884,1.2455233831,3.8189174071,3.8479452737 -epf_np,0.6581144952,0.9662474004,1.1706350574,1.0368665291,0.9253466826,0.971072301,0.6592724518,0.9450979115,1.2844205231,1.3932103761,1.9332061254,1.2812041765,1.5298484821,1.9403665636,1.9414483144 -epf_pjm,0.3815757864,0.4041710148,0.4263079971,0.4518928599,0.4405348981,0.4216993095,0.4270292068,0.4679144039,0.4870679588,0.48187052,0.9138786189,0.6031844165,0.5152721396000001,0.9298473491,0.9378548257 -ercot_1D,0.8691910278,0.8182837121000001,0.8296777262,0.8800154437000001,0.9470906371,0.9164572277,0.9810503129,0.9267011801,1.2548535439,1.1018625405,1.3820413333,1.4186958416,1.3382664757,1.3903868406,1.4000667198 -ercot_1H,1.0291210659,1.0649765384,1.1510446297,1.095463785,1.0976602987,1.137929015,1.2076871071,1.2226080643,1.259822515,1.1754444345,2.6755880612,1.2749705934,1.3214751318,2.6413247553,2.6942610140000003 -ercot_1M,0.7549419478,0.8060543809,0.7715311289,1.007020102,0.972573257,0.7729483605,0.9028337317,0.917392765,0.7617082171,0.7879913849,0.7564464177,0.9653005355,0.9042858434,3.4990135369,3.8188806322 -ercot_1W,0.9664287997,0.954652414,0.9324255927,1.0602182535,1.0526167016,0.9613116039,1.2284207021,1.2458511259,2.0949542269,2.089948711,2.0679213662,2.1282361494,2.0789778405,2.0789778405,2.0801083861 -favorita_stores_1D,0.9164120516,0.9681608123,0.9493623591,1.0363827033,0.9798213622,1.0322306624,0.9697812299,1.0613262128,1.1970549978,1.2216416053,1.2378827412,1.2731528133,1.6902367853,2.6356836377,2.6562348012 -favorita_stores_1M,1.7943754897000002,1.8559124197,1.9983090236,2.0093638587,2.0913151428,2.0865003553,1.9335734731,2.2542926251,1.942621879,2.0381596319,1.9424462204,1.9416452953,2.0967115946,2.0578284127,2.106703069 -favorita_stores_1W,2.0241017868,2.046240588,1.9683866102,2.1277442598,2.1965497094,2.1010925554,2.1226627361,2.3082226469,2.2196008497,2.2969051079,2.3568206927,2.3159830026,2.4938289104,2.4938289104,2.5295781907 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.684612804,1.0314215727,0.9750458566,0.9750458566,0.9750458566,0.9750458566,1.2251845822,1.1981736735,1.1848435874,1.562168577,1.1813088433,1.2463370552,1.7338216714,2.7303837473,2.7460309898 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.9426020865,1.0893114126,1.1326951058,1.3968989653,1.389630485,1.3584690914,1.2438493019,1.4526874778,1.1521708088,1.2777968435,1.1787496733,1.2743467248,1.3301725476,1.7424291672,1.8848237078 -favorita_transactions_1W,1.2279251974,1.3836394276,1.4283013139,1.5565627963000002,1.4633900473,1.4283013139,1.9116392061,1.8454095028,1.55928265,1.6323137052,1.6473855473,1.7020928499,1.6714139443,1.6714139443,1.7289504361 -fred_md_2025/cee,3.4681773516,3.3490390729,4.4904404116,4.4904404116,4.4904404116,4.4904404116,3.872866885,4.8863751494,3.7449838346,5.8791415649,3.642884743,4.3189751514,9.4371027278,5.9195737804,4.236293641 -fred_md_2025/macro,5.6801712856,5.3069669462,5.8417533276,5.8417533276,5.8417533276,5.8417533276,6.3986770227,6.2236190621,5.7428835095,6.5438633054,5.7936387412,6.0124726904,9.5793076258,6.4047596955,5.9752290488 -fred_qd_2025/cee,2.1919917498,2.0461814654,2.1807036186,1.7726716319,2.2955960423,2.3654952138,2.2915507616,3.6414340592,1.9027740715,1.9543398085,2.1232724277,2.2176909101,4.4448478957,3.675773916,2.1956616384 -fred_qd_2025/macro,3.5367304504,3.5296543064,3.5932767502000003,3.4020827998,3.6155615726,3.6544020032,4.2401411107,4.5427910096,3.6148508861,3.8675028627,3.9044348431,3.8250563211,5.2213314727,4.251884602,3.7928250976 -gvar,0.5781460056000001,0.576786326,0.5902138174,0.5758663156,0.5933262207000001,0.5962858414000001,0.6741322757,0.7468286472,0.5896099351,0.6171744519,0.5932241947,0.616191821,0.7861696279,0.6701753186,0.6414950038 -hermes,0.6092189134,0.6510189412,0.6183988819,0.9852562723,0.7037822323,0.6752116267,0.7049311249,0.8242736568,1.4161705928,1.2129200308,1.6730456492,1.5539343318,2.1461477983,2.1461477983,2.2601295911 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5567377231,0.5472671449000001,0.5516009983,0.5468045976,0.550892445,0.550892445,0.5720159668,0.63854811,0.7197387018,0.6445167344,0.7933138017,0.815310861,1.0291569643,1.5929687017,1.6067653205 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6161304379,0.6208684057,0.6177938232,0.6372998817000001,0.6366963845,0.6366963845,0.6369452495,0.7066222052000001,0.7460571909,0.7472607405,10.476792269,0.7744970082,1.3859393726,1.3859393726,1.416652405 -hospital,0.6860471169,0.6884080716000001,0.6797112236,0.7333522854000001,0.6968021756,0.6968021756,0.6961291798,0.8343055996000001,0.6974795864000001,0.7310321414000001,0.7259497104,0.7401804136,0.8075126003,1.0208467827,1.0870231786 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.5544475609,0.5551415729,0.5560606379,0.555491233,0.5555647846,0.5561584192,0.5622795668,0.610265181,0.5569559255000001,0.5556445831,0.5557966863,0.5748023874,0.8571822336,1.3250699981,1.3357575815 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.5763906233,0.5850609146,0.5795336813,0.597604554,0.5862064826,0.5868402215,0.5814141841,0.6410506868,0.5789001687,0.5793359333,0.5783166572,0.5976752248,1.0492127258,1.0492127258,1.0884368132 -jena_weather_10T,0.3543287448,0.3893025483,0.3571555639,0.3684159974,0.4178230361,0.4178230361,0.412525166,0.4152438085,0.6729893352,0.6729893352,0.7418250443000001,0.7929160924,0.6729893352,0.7693201112,0.8000027464 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-redset_1H,1.3653252295,1.3365796216,1.366509388,1.3064391449,1.4098475772,2.2790272339,1.3205339155,1.4505298471,1.8587229014,1.8772582072,2.3765166001,4.0716886989,1.9424894097,10.5809680586,10.6448235022 -redset_5T,0.6541973572,0.7872933801,0.7231351044000001,0.7192159039,0.7931599229,1.025913162,0.7111485095000001,0.8873768717,2.6902332367,1.9052087686,1.2243411634,3.3566436475,1.2243411634,12.0595440026,13.0588504389 -restaurant,0.6853328207,0.6816216488,0.6773501614,0.7040430265000001,0.6890372912,0.6890372912,0.6930359174,0.7474752761,0.7085218117000001,0.7558027757,1.0214758859,0.7607880054,0.9837597907,1.6150739536,1.6918666339 -rohlik_orders_1D,0.9592108487,0.9857545101,1.0057460708,1.1350889685,0.9699727195,1.0507521562,1.3410638007,1.1963053977,1.2113521188,1.2661753782,1.4469855127,1.3973344823,1.5544219081,2.9129738594,2.9819524139 -rohlik_orders_1W,1.2996633839,1.3004244287,1.32777854,1.4933704304,1.5315439437,1.4281796145,1.5240499794,1.8923042995,1.3984122308,1.4146777164,1.4189633182,1.3962994461,1.4844422646,1.4844422646,1.4886376798 -rohlik_sales_1D,0.8807894575,1.1480800218,1.0957943217,1.2180556543,1.1696411255,1.1471494654,1.3749816723,1.2026659678,1.2482652223,1.2758180745,1.2661606689,1.2818357414,1.3749816723,1.5460015545,1.5603709005000002 -rohlik_sales_1W,1.2741411479,1.4251751964,1.4010447148,1.504562043,1.5157422743,1.5215966312,1.220508006,1.6933358341,1.6455287753,1.8024970943,14.4532204201,1.6547436183,1.9282179039,1.9282179039,1.9690203085 -rossmann_1D,0.2834680757,0.539134486,0.5015787540000001,0.5677454284,0.5274198802,0.5246207313,0.23207865,0.5305513714,0.5781148561,0.5619283369,0.5936917112,0.8315478225,0.9136725214,2.7620723724,2.818179584 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-uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.0372645497,1.9920440399,2.135267758,2.0391528653,2.1353860487,2.1221392593,2.0764757709,2.2998485754,2.7990662584,3.8389323119,2.7409717093,2.5298732341,2.5728651106,2.6919734344,2.7354032661 -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,2.7834425279,3.1923854702,4.01082831,2.8235902828,3.0143746347,3.4351717559,2.8719957749,5.2476339527,2.2375975817,9.8478063402,2.3989565537,5.097376861,7.7039519752,7.7039519752,4.9437715765 -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,4.9682123605,4.5324987152,3.7830532019,5.0981213862,3.8727833855,4.1483138966,4.1427702993,3.5699175673,5.7411671194,12.6543213595,5.0239734103,5.1818506739,5.1795349212,5.1795349212,5.3904979176 -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.7252347533,3.7286792775,3.5117739729,4.0356930401,3.565225656,3.5311824645,3.8009751218,3.6498480124,5.5816729211,7.407131023,5.622786154,5.0552633527,4.5971311302,5.1718851312,5.2745393338 -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,17.4422360824,19.434962205,18.4860520309,16.2859178099,19.3249941782,17.4887255246,16.9124597959,26.4381110934,14.3311431786,13.9770561849,16.3125415616,20.1018108531,24.6697283453,24.6697283453,19.7494072856 -us_consumption_1M,1.4636824416,1.4670456897,1.6053660409,1.5639307325,1.5132208912,1.5162423149,1.5711057336,1.8961848647,1.4864869258,1.598443305,1.4452749249,1.704219721,2.6840778381,1.8701116849,1.6834522226000002 -us_consumption_1Q,1.7235145142,1.8028657315,1.9266298936,1.7074351120000002,1.7957240899,1.764175518,2.6728862979,2.8659918221,1.9078230052,2.0470332513,1.8861010469,2.3452449672,3.3237196122,2.5675143796,2.1897132455 -us_consumption_1Y,3.7304723943,3.6344846883,4.007463063,3.8978014747,4.8066289721,4.1076459792,4.1801774688,5.8799625833,3.7862940987,3.6882837957,4.0805825682,5.0841302662,6.5846226659,6.5846226659,4.9461376338 -walmart,0.6478016424,0.7074857338,0.6794198494,0.9071550498,0.8447389691,0.7740159174,0.6618592710000001,0.8422492473000001,1.2166093946,1.0205417736,21704350706303.93,1.4674936934,2.0341238516,2.0341238516,2.2528910444 -world_co2_emissions,2.6702032562,2.6434689128,2.8764182979,2.7160328031,2.8754184288,2.7544343248,2.7200799174,3.6825226706,2.6879348969,2.8223304034,7.7240531151,2.8254620295,3.1550152472,3.1550152472,2.755800442 -world_life_expectancy,1.186574759,1.1086152308,1.2103954021,1.6394210102,1.7852750057,1.3452468722,1.1492708484,1.6015213365,1.3050094069,1.2829496791,1.3015724131,1.4512016278,1.8297624985,1.8297624985,1.5824689261 -world_tourism,3.0519541233,3.0521218421,3.5616996609,3.2075602319,3.2640026065,3.1644023349,2.7953196676000003,4.3603502979,2.552402438,2.6184635789,2.8819679863000003,2.5742928529,3.2013302671,3.2013302671,2.3982302133 diff --git a/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 2b1011afdf93d3a2bfc267c63a62777f226c1b93..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 75505bc8c8a1c76564ca751d6855f95f65ef5d4c..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv b/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv deleted file mode 100644 index d878247a893e891a1dc7ed58379d51835e26f0bb..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.1128598566,0.1167248718,0.1158377729,0.121559811,0.122192445,0.1146202493,0.1146202493,0.1157490913,0.1473227948,0.1473227948,0.2089927338,0.1327521257,0.202845639,0.1473227948,0.209491349 -ETT_1D,0.3210531483,0.332150948,0.3280948972,0.3407840222,0.3959747152,0.3275848009,0.3275848009,0.3646975075,0.3275626761,0.3554786793,0.3392487691,0.3405146034,0.336139462,0.3566862594,0.3456173895 -ETT_1H,0.2467289659,0.245201607,0.2477475438,0.2432126313,0.2553246886,0.2464663107,0.2464663107,0.2547681354,0.2621275507,0.2729976766,0.3240313299,0.2708169587,0.3389070071,0.286422462,0.3517438181 -ETT_1W,0.5228870836,0.4956519336,0.4771292359,0.4972649187,0.5109347999,0.4599850744,0.4599850744,0.5208597481,0.4587044328,0.5033163548,0.455156821,0.4891462862,0.3963210046,0.3963210046,0.4451834112 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.0363369958,0.0359623253,0.0367103025,0.0387991458,0.0365180448,0.0373221384,0.0373221384,0.0372882528,0.0378798334,0.0375884525,0.0379914595,0.0389688019,0.0786971625,0.0445690587,0.0891125299 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.0681990332,0.0643115029,0.0704373386,0.0749491051,0.0731078316,0.0797934189,0.0797934189,0.077676107,0.1172784954,0.1172784954,0.1460618883,0.1024438366,0.1526884101,0.1172784954,0.1758716479 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.0736883423,0.0792618439,0.0750445005,0.075644061,0.0858088784,0.0886344958,0.0886344958,0.0829992138,0.1069220781,0.1080897018,0.1085262727,0.1108838413,0.1121638626,0.0883255631,0.130171527 -M_DENSE_1D,0.083318119,0.0935403809,0.0993285432,0.1092759416,0.0926615007,0.0985291574,0.0985291574,0.0968305223,0.1192791395,0.1260855269,0.1300925907,0.1322432969,0.196977134,0.1419847511,0.2006916501 -M_DENSE_1H,0.1462710002,0.13799605,0.1467316881,0.1535322428,0.1593384311,0.1466876373,0.1466876373,0.1584326059,0.2484246612,0.2454276025,0.3140071735,0.2921647772,0.6536297143,0.2611668751,0.707449168 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.2391328625,0.2409728497,0.2404616728,0.2440994486,0.2500552535,0.2437216282,0.2437216282,0.245247978,0.3343059897,0.3343059897,0.3189420968,0.2728340209,0.3568555236,0.3343059897,0.3669907093 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.1627460048,0.1730356291,0.1678203642,0.1653927863,0.1798963994,0.1713460237,0.1713460237,0.2091502994,0.1850999221,0.2079726383,0.6624499261,0.2595272139,0.246570535,0.2122471854,0.290869683 -australian_tourism,0.0905689129,0.0948839262,0.1068701223,0.1337763593,0.0927634016,0.1308895275,0.1434193179,0.0969211906,0.0957876109,0.1101633608,0.0970393047,0.1052965894,0.1803925335,0.1130525246,0.199330695 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3308650646,0.3901138266,0.4282031118,0.5299379429000001,0.360369738,0.4081446098,0.4081446098,0.4650631395,1.3223615305,1.7735276449,1.2847489447,1.3980487641,1.3024706409,2.2812914532,1.3151569486 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.4957355787,0.9057201819,1.4135781384,1.2221172807,0.8823374127,1.3254390534,1.3254390534,0.6893105085,1.3437154961,1.5979523685,1.3366881806,1.6561117344,1.2818957102,2.2837712012,1.8269103833 -boomlet_1062,0.5680818423,0.5789273618,0.5749673398,0.5677611841,0.5832466359,0.5945871048,0.6012691446,0.6355941124000001,0.7826401234,0.7457671713,0.8238335352,0.8386591385000001,1.0029399408,0.8355847068000001,1.0990104974 -boomlet_1209,0.3048900987,0.3045249204,0.3234299188,0.2916179846,0.3865331056,0.3292905567,0.3271624692,0.3340434651,0.4339859435,0.4278108916,0.4784097772,0.456201244,0.4388518186,0.4784097772,0.5110153038 -boomlet_1225,0.1220172782,0.1242312214,0.1230602603,0.1206233559,0.1326060004,0.1278310667,0.1331294786,0.1333109416,0.153843496,0.1446868773,0.1598025897,0.1596047961,0.195260353,0.195260353,0.1988768318 -boomlet_1230,0.3054680901,0.2999179457,0.3117769108,0.2909953139,0.3497826156,0.3094188715,0.3241073897,0.3178766378,0.3894998971,0.3998710697,0.4274646386,0.4040077124,0.3912469672,0.4654206108,0.4504819196 -boomlet_1282,0.3551724804,0.3418466096,0.3447100926,0.3443926057,0.3517501049,0.3639267584,0.3918061855,0.360391448,0.4329732117,0.4049750815,0.4705070178,0.471762625,0.5673586508,0.5673586508,0.5815167152 -boomlet_1487,0.2009541891,0.1978987699,0.2042655856,0.1894979433,0.2418147345,0.2079859222,0.2074861592,0.2194652483,0.2612758556,0.259043758,0.2614417874,0.270651306,0.2881606094,0.2823812783,0.3361342464 -boomlet_1631,0.3118222283,0.3155328254,0.3227136546,0.3156198487,0.3554736745,0.322950287,0.3246407648,0.3276903199,0.4303123065,0.4303123065,0.3481223856,0.3499573969,0.3828907337,0.4303123065,0.3956788492 -boomlet_1676,0.3237391089,0.3195228016,0.3219743376,0.3173684891,0.3439016851,0.3274155865,0.3288848916,0.3249830057,0.4490416802,0.4490416802,0.3539671682,0.3605949771,0.3738144227,0.4490416802,0.3871649546 -boomlet_1855,0.1587321378,0.1647552303,0.157446321,0.1576757028,0.1950387305,0.1619848815,0.1634840172,0.1777051742,0.2153578225,0.2241676514,0.2190390133,0.2310231853,0.2028796298,0.255325092,0.2044042459 -boomlet_1975,0.0905538287,0.1160976808,0.1343890613,0.0860611707,0.1347071896,0.1478435607,0.1244086675,0.1286565167,0.3327476291,0.3661623288,0.4015633572,0.3240569453,0.4014330303,0.5204730918,0.4021568225 -boomlet_2187,0.2656522618,0.2903383515,0.2640573038,0.2836815666,0.3217076673,0.2926881402,0.2890647493,0.3149817281,0.4073318877,0.4429809169,0.4339327821,0.441407778,0.403332821,0.465180005,0.4079644265 -boomlet_285,0.1637453323,0.1907992813,0.1807812872,0.1596092123,0.1742876602,0.2203877039,0.2555644857,0.2649652282,0.3599062982,0.34433789,0.3622854223,0.3717445356,0.6725665377000001,0.6725665377000001,0.6908623011 -boomlet_619,0.2998264354,0.3117435689,0.317407313,0.2789135486,0.3036044294,0.3062168618,0.4683247317,0.3109702097,0.8714422486000001,0.5880218188,0.9528967892,0.8820872245,0.9458725577,0.9458725577,0.9676378967 -boomlet_772,0.1571995002,0.160275506,0.16101018,0.1544767227,0.1705900793,0.1698505863,0.1845645847,0.1812428949,0.2635364999,0.2378165958,0.3077275646,0.2834336899,0.2919496069,0.2919496069,0.2993941878 -boomlet_963,0.3817032517,0.397875566,0.3901485342,0.3792164679,0.415064609,0.4169379192,0.4316260388,0.4042673384,0.5013279652,0.5164873201,0.5458354699,0.5049570994,0.5169750445,0.5169750445,0.5254156838 -ecdc_ili,0.3759767271,0.4172024563,0.4242536306,0.4693168223,0.3879963517,0.4756085008,0.4956143111,0.5432749093,0.5675356537,0.5880377501,0.6168868512,0.5694230199,0.5534411848,0.5534411848,0.5846513778 -entsoe_15T,0.04219648,0.0416073938,0.0420496514,0.0522911714,0.0426369185,0.0423905659,0.0428303072,0.0564987165,0.067677392,0.067677392,0.4080646552,0.0539835229,0.1434365042,0.067677392,0.1567171741 -entsoe_1H,0.0329469333,0.0358633269,0.0363473815,0.0365800265,0.0333449995,0.0395727229,0.0341011005,0.0554685768,0.0833389089,0.0854086541,0.1569610283,0.0836396273,0.1571170386,0.0792450108,0.1671798959 -entsoe_30T,0.0367303018,0.0473410125,0.0399606742,0.0378812171,0.0390591249,0.038267585,0.0378308199,0.0519962882,0.0767360015,0.090934383,0.241174338,0.0721444593,0.1462993909,0.0870952165,0.1450240765 -epf_be,0.115556011,0.11255784,0.1230011668,0.1323491182,0.1179565661,0.1227849199,0.1357350046,0.1303241445,0.1754423061,0.1986222906,0.2487520538,0.1881915066,0.237576263,0.1840044525,0.2400494121 -epf_de,0.291016907,0.5914115101,0.5786662247000001,0.6772215117,0.3069136301,0.5364827175,0.5606896855,0.5721812874000001,0.6023222137,0.6818832021,0.6107009687,0.6459928796000001,0.6107063688000001,0.7489839181,0.6189188711 -epf_fr,0.0680296275,0.0771284029,0.0797966965,0.0836794117,0.0618426707,0.079128382,0.0876754681,0.0812654203,0.1133474851,0.1532071637,0.1492719604,0.1293735383,0.1702834178,0.1298259975,0.1727491379 -epf_np,0.0381853723,0.0639044802,0.0554376821,0.0616097255,0.0386706958,0.0542902095,0.0566988389,0.0496031295,0.0682523511,0.078622775,0.1040808285,0.0688152587,0.1036567884,0.0796461385,0.1036498375 -epf_pjm,0.0821098361,0.0941735437,0.08936894,0.1030592872,0.092521411,0.0975614782,0.0937614741,0.0934227692,0.0933501931,0.098476214,0.1716884077,0.1198625589,0.1717319913,0.1016348289,0.1742728941 -ercot_1D,0.0765202672,0.0756690312,0.075154368,0.0810110342,0.0898239311,0.0819215234,0.0793944309,0.0776411118,0.1129253348,0.1103588376,0.117865942,0.1169790924,0.1179466095,0.1245740173,0.1188580243 -ercot_1H,0.0691227315,0.0764717873,0.0705278089,0.0721937651,0.0795933543,0.0716643825,0.0730120171,0.074077414,0.0829790251,0.0749658542,0.1808560818,0.081462577,0.1561551619,0.0818516593,0.156225403 -ercot_1M,0.0474946219,0.0484172593,0.0524891056,0.0669821394,0.05342761,0.0656316509,0.0511789478,0.051032866,0.0481692294,0.0493777886,0.0470737303,0.0593784221,0.266211768,0.0529377862,0.2937269539 -ercot_1W,0.0589590463,0.059191324,0.0586846132,0.0654530676,0.0684465686,0.0638612125,0.0599824842,0.0685063219,0.1453860532,0.1429765524,0.1469057526,0.1458645716,0.1442763271,0.1442763271,0.1446279654 -favorita_stores_1D,0.1382725313,0.1452467814,0.1518204361,0.1783829153,0.1485749632,0.1568098612,0.1742722556,0.1561883375,0.1788716882,0.1934442326,0.1871851772,0.1834860831,0.3056042403,0.2519854262,0.3071700007 -favorita_stores_1M,0.1303168371,0.2102531455,0.1893665791,0.1978285983,0.1158652566,0.2355426997,0.263652347,0.2560960427,0.1466952749,0.1385348588,0.1568281725,0.1535032243,0.1232989542,0.1900056936,0.1430777609 -favorita_stores_1W,0.1289288979,0.1308373965,0.1345634833,0.1511486098,0.1259902738,0.1555078961,0.1579625078,0.1497412801,0.1436039165,0.1500959687,0.148442591,0.1443628684,0.1528069191,0.1528069191,0.1540484183 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.0611646173,0.0873474585,0.0820303043,0.0873474585,0.0773345503,0.0873474585,0.0873474585,0.0798803577,0.1005134217,0.1204928338,0.1010010868,0.0961165557,0.1561206006,0.1460640723,0.1564211233 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.0719262234,0.0741879094,0.0772057417,0.0891149079,0.0822258855,0.0863027538,0.0940793492,0.0944761617,0.0746712369,0.0833974167,0.075680572,0.0943706955,0.0830064558,0.0907197162,0.0979339545 -favorita_transactions_1W,0.0562127232,0.0628811317,0.0590786255,0.0686957029,0.070972002,0.0671727598,0.0628811317,0.0715127803,0.0683781244,0.0730921635,0.0708877588,0.0703343528,0.0709917221,0.0709917221,0.0733929446 -fred_md_2025/cee,0.0808948604,0.0893563021,0.0771422869,0.0893563021,0.0853241075,0.0893563021,0.0893563021,0.1094554538,0.0880950077,0.101570566,0.0874256578,0.0903405098,0.0912865269,0.1825383855,0.0899785994 -fred_md_2025/macro,0.0797789855,0.0832975223,0.0786031675,0.0832975223,0.0845430854,0.0832975223,0.0832975223,0.0866654116,0.0850931924,0.0913136788,0.0855845023,0.086868012,0.0864161201,0.1316369599,0.0862326509 -fred_qd_2025/cee,0.1657290639,0.1558658059,0.146726247,0.1320567852,0.1495637866,0.1528913536,0.1553945123,0.2050228651,0.1535186178,0.1628828034,0.163525425,0.1604369975,0.1646972333,0.2083851339,0.1613227853 -fred_qd_2025/macro,0.1070199647,0.1036789802,0.1035667702,0.1019809656,0.1155847,0.1058608346,0.1074347071,0.1156803335,0.1102426328,0.1150225402,0.1130458034,0.1135594273,0.112650905,0.1422945023,0.1116643421 -gvar,0.0184834703,0.0187466032,0.0185361033,0.0183949311,0.0235774602,0.0185879215,0.0189676567,0.0219536834,0.018235926,0.0184923184,0.0183902988,0.0183729022,0.0185624258,0.0239340235,0.017942446 -hermes,0.0028845992,0.0029142732,0.0030851755,0.0043706582,0.003404404,0.0033616596,0.003208007,0.0036552635,0.0078905979,0.0063903024,0.0088396827,0.0081041083,0.0087068714,0.0087068714,0.0088381628 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.7004947938,0.6943961620000001,0.6893573284000001,0.6904558182,0.7258024514,0.6949587405000001,0.6949587405000001,0.7362602293,0.8618716657000001,0.80726372,0.9335796714,0.9374910116,1.0676994622,1.0205006063,1.0792345285 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.4327760933,0.4307300597,0.4324219674,0.4364300489,0.4384448647,0.4394375533,0.4394375533,0.4750745565,0.5484556556,0.5603942513,0.6528081954,0.5616531372,0.7169096172,0.7169096172,0.73438465 -hospital,0.0955333467,0.0891746506,0.0908275228,0.0951568279,0.0931978375,0.0947973169,0.0947973169,0.1026285514,0.0920567866,0.1056054849,0.0927931517,0.0992142502,0.117495615,0.0954293236,0.1240455657 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.5318945219,0.533603767,0.532626473,0.5320996389,0.5375386306000001,0.5332016895,0.5337376775,0.5358891719000001,0.5351516929,0.5348244904,0.5349606606,0.5510431179,0.7243229402,0.7622172844,0.7295191623 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.2115394616,0.212422525,0.2142321087,0.2188375845,0.2122697207,0.2152673571,0.214606831,0.2139370313,0.2126255133,0.212284724,0.2122781935,0.2190619932,0.2933695345,0.2933695345,0.30397943 -jena_weather_10T,0.2751553475,0.257587004,0.2777656166,0.2483462442,0.2988471952,0.3021136379,0.3021136379,0.3908659499,0.7879570897,0.7879570897,0.3862366249,0.3075604132,0.340848519,0.7879570897,0.5317361675 -jena_weather_1D,0.2763651402,0.2713017484,0.2731164291,0.2763100538,0.2843381079,0.2784405042,0.2784405042,0.306889223,0.3410053076,0.3394734252,0.3844678975,0.3648304911,0.3843897356,0.4190868366,0.4042778883 -jena_weather_1H,0.2537129335,0.2603537007,0.2506694068,0.2467585944,0.2825195241,0.2519024358,0.2519024358,0.435202554,0.3278975237,0.9374862075,0.3521687292,0.2954772817,0.328573375,0.7711870382,0.3343243943 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,1.3604878279,1.5299117744,1.5299117744,1.5299117744,2.9485943079,1.5299117744,1.5299117744,1.5299117744,3.3046866596,3.3046866596,2.0494638503,2.1184663236,2.0376436353,3.3046866596,2.1939117908 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7152167839,0.7140720218000001,0.722069484,0.709543103,0.729861784,0.7286467254,0.7228399217,0.7455375254000001,0.7985714674000001,0.7844091415000001,0.8128879607,0.8038047969000001,0.8071428537,0.9081870615,0.8271189928 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,1.5203947999,1.9992301464,1.5899849832,1.6237983048,2.7372743011000003,1.3630170584,2.6893893838,1.8708190978,2.1525859416,2.579102248,2.3230794907,2.3053818822,2.2917796373,3.122066617,2.3595300138 -m5_1D,0.7030550556,0.7110159993,0.7024515271,0.7110159993,0.9158941507,0.7110159993,0.7110159993,0.735691011,0.9158941507,0.7716780305000001,0.7714367509000001,0.7779017687,1.0240883827,0.9158941507,1.0368541479 -m5_1M,0.4288781907,0.4248805046,0.4305847585,0.459651649,0.4364556372,0.4363167882,0.4455042779,0.4508921802,0.4417713284,0.4600670636,0.4605289102,0.491009295,0.4776364863,0.5107533932,0.5485711098 -m5_1W,0.4283166904,0.4334180355,0.4280506968,0.4278151095,0.4357982576,0.4286454916,0.4334180355,0.4258472919,0.4386759996,0.4387526214,0.4468327463,0.4475453794,0.5041812062000001,0.5041812062000001,0.5192105174 -proenfo_gfc12,0.069590554,0.09096132,0.0953878213,0.09096132,0.0878337689,0.09096132,0.09096132,0.0814341474,0.140745189,0.1193260785,0.2331060618,0.1359507203,0.2325648576,0.1285183787,0.2455491483 -proenfo_gfc14,0.0263798704,0.0454557415,0.0447395099,0.0454557415,0.0314071138,0.0454557415,0.0454557415,0.022570387,0.0540108977,0.0571345754,0.0646636074,0.0579787859,0.1831386365,0.0586917939,0.1959836841 -proenfo_gfc17,0.0395739348,0.0744532838,0.0764463827,0.0744532838,0.0562544549,0.0744532838,0.0744532838,0.0343229823,0.0960090132,0.0943354612,0.1663142737,0.0931363594,0.1911468029,0.1077746021,0.2018542446 -redset_15T,0.2581138326,0.3049023062,0.2957181528,0.3032550395,0.2824990153,0.3051173747,0.3266223073,0.3414731026,0.3900802583,0.3900802583,0.3900802583,0.4040436536,0.5721419543,0.3900802583,0.5907099247 -redset_1H,0.2086091326,0.2327233687,0.2140746087,0.2279421866,0.2258856788,0.2229073554,0.2425440878,0.263667053,0.302437371,0.3273749292,2.3069740623,0.371760726,0.4976614714,0.3300818771,0.5004897475 -redset_5T,0.329381554,0.3443454772,0.3807104856,0.343882215,0.3484145552,0.3707561105,0.4300963342,0.3967622221,0.6020359665,0.6915958703,0.4487639129,0.6252421260000001,0.6784450889,0.4487639129,0.7538361549 -restaurant,0.3583806779,0.3569885604,0.3583980985,0.3731744513,0.3642114922,0.3649469204,0.3649469204,0.3637035079,0.3710609339,0.3996725455,0.4009865783,0.3923323192,0.612521477,0.483283326,0.6468708888 -rohlik_orders_1D,0.0560522973,0.0590882786,0.0571725398,0.0646083735,0.0655876726,0.0552303962,0.0613666862,0.0667062812,0.0628061324,0.0740682058,0.0657169782,0.0664489299,0.1082820654,0.0827216394,0.1096319526 -rohlik_orders_1W,0.0503461548,0.0541592546,0.0520526886,0.0591418616,0.0652046457,0.0612039004,0.0569869973,0.0675320886,0.0573217526,0.0584325351,0.0581583686,0.0573223703,0.058363314,0.058363314,0.059100195 -rohlik_sales_1D,0.2762769232,0.3586171567,0.3783946335,0.3974789381,0.4345725775,0.3820689023,0.3783308864,0.3645052612,0.4056582451,0.4094604254,0.4184724987,0.4130674899,0.4717368782,0.4345725775,0.4772062898 -rohlik_sales_1W,0.2291194974,0.2667129934,0.2736291289,0.2812094092,0.2151686251,0.2871065438,0.2846268117,0.292871207,0.2905908525,0.3070147634,0.3002878428,0.294593662,0.311866194,0.311866194,0.3224963248 -rossmann_1D,0.1197795045,0.2085952148,0.2251284003,0.2320613816,0.0979018956,0.2214855403,0.2176495418,0.2092144758,0.2277583107,0.2223706722,0.2360617861,0.2557922274,0.5480500698,0.2692451894,0.5516847163 -rossmann_1W,0.0964419945,0.1802897658,0.1696977001,0.1733398307,0.0791731263,0.1759210136,0.1760291811,0.1854728833,0.1783457696,0.1835633125,0.1836160459,0.1812564228,0.2192445789,0.2192445789,0.2424932998 -solar_1D,0.2379390135,0.2471472979,0.2452487931,0.2500299245,0.2466564849,0.2569396086,0.2532424137,0.2471724987,0.2494917773,0.2527682468,0.2511778109,0.2619624853,0.3013429433,0.3093768284,0.3458185181 -solar_1W,0.200119924,0.246641323,0.2531014979,0.3023860455,0.1849420816,0.3419925272,0.2132549584,0.1854887605,0.3008096814,0.2914025486,0.2775774002,0.3495942652,0.326290369,0.326290369,0.4388745129 -solar_with_weather_15T,1.1523838522,1.4700251039,1.4235610306,1.1480220269,1.1661535196,1.3761328127,1.2911253296,1.5058858633,1.311486863,1.311486863,1.4215377569,1.5023058228,1.0179969072,1.311486863,1.2097884297 -solar_with_weather_1H,1.2584228755,1.2011471927,1.5260583486,1.4068397004,0.9096449066,1.4828350302,1.3260020718,1.4480908126,1.2681774691,1.2902403221,1.1464893281,1.5474270582,1.1464484423,1.2338736704,1.1473927319 -uci_air_quality_1D,0.2703591673,0.3069281131,0.2942162712,0.3233137009,0.3105711883,0.2915518175,0.2842696743,0.2892992957,0.2860204957,0.3229408102,0.2790713324,0.2964460064,0.4314649024,0.3624341339,0.456071114 -uci_air_quality_1H,0.3364187018,0.371518901,0.3697669104,0.3658213586,0.3857780203,0.3903881013,0.3758005321,0.400704702,0.4116057828,0.4518040374,4.0641790986,0.4167998955,0.5250781342,0.4562693149,0.5444705039000001 -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,0.0188431325,0.0172808705,0.0159650212,0.0158421656,0.0419449611,0.0173290129,0.0245629952,0.0455631685,0.0214682838,0.0188173242,0.0182502112,0.047922572,0.0579707756,0.0695790831,0.0458026743 -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,0.4026392659,0.3887864605,0.3817302555,0.3457811862,0.4174416304,0.3626234081,0.4166112363,0.4168794766,0.4527084805,0.4697780043,0.4591069408,0.4808448859,0.453881491,0.4987584807,0.4637164548 -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,0.0279646563,0.0420784587,0.0336664002,0.0338043142,0.0386651377,0.0277593429,0.0386007642,0.0525751226,0.0229528998,0.0670678648,0.0234671999,0.0519616026,0.0820604023,0.0820604023,0.0507871248 -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,0.7566532683,0.4691022187,0.6047020033,0.7679864317,0.626670666,0.5119306892000001,0.533506915,0.4364076927,0.4829665609,0.7762918919,0.4576220214,0.4545178637,0.4544002153,0.4544002153,0.4722695798 -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,0.4765254823,0.4222944811,0.4611622334,0.4977396607,0.4566554457,0.4184653059,0.4370788723,0.4043421954,0.5653157011000001,0.6831767932,0.5764029175000001,0.5472069114,0.560081014,0.5015514418,0.5699051917 -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,0.1985057108,0.2217276141,0.2228221811,0.1818175469,0.1957054086,0.2224105477,0.1935101479,0.2817648932,0.1562370956,0.1529182278,0.1736827634,0.2025926664,0.2501822181,0.2501822181,0.198870188 -us_consumption_1M,0.0221474791,0.0262938315,0.0229767126,0.0234064611,0.0282917617,0.0248397756,0.025038723,0.0353930782,0.0240289312,0.0266722746,0.0232927346,0.0304996581,0.0367178954,0.0583924714,0.0302986122 -us_consumption_1Q,0.0334895582,0.0319971864,0.0341675981,0.0322923365,0.0508262731,0.0323032217,0.0322679118,0.0549728539,0.0338116094,0.0334090083,0.0345600061,0.0455343083,0.0568597171,0.0723187622,0.0433424644 -us_consumption_1Y,0.0613212118,0.0577691134,0.0570256105,0.0712195709,0.0673417844,0.1083728828,0.0879293952,0.1102996588,0.0638795553,0.0521022394,0.0765756212,0.1074392479,0.1702565216,0.1702565216,0.1056817938 -walmart,0.0933870797,0.1015809998,0.1053567082,0.1384944916,0.0943299681,0.1315481663,0.1172761619,0.1211136207,0.1773376018,0.1595972031,0.2950883508,0.1852148771,0.1967352033,0.1967352033,0.2281249762 -world_co2_emissions,0.0894456842,0.0879381941,0.0871799563,0.0830718834,0.0868360951,0.093244922,0.0897831822,0.1067606712,0.081172869,0.0819489691,0.0843222712,0.0831107938,0.0984961833,0.0984961833,0.0830490989 -world_life_expectancy,0.01166582,0.0112725816,0.0107911893,0.0150144563,0.0108183488,0.0176806053,0.0130603154,0.0145865259,0.0126706732,0.0130623952,0.0126002091,0.0137058759,0.0171300128,0.0171300128,0.0147433012 -world_tourism,0.1209655751,0.1209704466,0.1137896851,0.1073285565,0.0676485132,0.114122387,0.1171618253,0.1553527489,0.0681912079,0.073036734,0.0937603042,0.0556104314,0.1106580384,0.1106580384,0.0549742542 diff --git a/tables/pivot_WAPE_baseline_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_WAPE_baseline_imputed.csv deleted file mode 100644 index cd82880cc8f95b5ef7b3d567841f6f81c16e4631..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE_baseline_imputed.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv deleted file mode 100644 index da1b1aa0898ccbbae8471bf6c8f15076ffff7bcc..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_WQL.csv b/tables/pivot_WQL.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 114dff774c08cc00eeeb3cfb98c4e88fdc2db92c..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.088140917,0.0914609728,0.0925313491,0.0951691601,0.0966499793,0.0933383153,0.0933383153,0.0969683943,0.1224205307,0.1224205307,0.1889663006,0.170235374,0.1224205307,0.2051287363,0.2108337564 -ETT_1D,0.2599714581,0.2612366718,0.267888696,0.2741924035,0.3179643477,0.2669855109,0.2669855109,0.3129149392,0.3227852613,0.3320927513,0.3649904644,0.360480833,0.3642035745,0.3538102937,0.3621092269 -ETT_1H,0.1929432618,0.1923900276,0.1916135933,0.189981304,0.2034494101,0.2059476241,0.2059476241,0.2146782131,0.2620350459,0.2275419988,0.3554423083,0.387905148,0.2597090183,0.4903424451,0.5136644933 -ETT_1W,0.4180629794,0.3834384084,0.3998766685,0.3901701003,0.4148319078,0.3737931634,0.3737931634,0.4643316617,0.4495446321,0.4761461158,0.4577441806,0.4986518854,0.4614224698,0.4614224698,0.4961494694 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.0294338099,0.029926259,0.0292182088,0.0313094796,0.0295572487,0.0304002738,0.0304002738,0.0326217509,0.0310410872,0.0306907047,0.0311914855,0.0325479384,0.0397058571,0.0919262659,0.0978699313 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.0547949407,0.0562291392,0.0529133781,0.0599067065,0.0580208445,0.0662523771,0.0662523771,0.0664487294,0.1307515175,0.1307515175,0.2388070951,0.2528752457,0.1307515175,0.3038598558,0.3206568541 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.0574848175,0.0594513843,0.0643709018,0.0606719844,0.0689450513,0.0781392419,0.0781392419,0.0714930823,0.1151931596,0.1111745205,0.1270606325,0.121969972,0.081199984,0.1936404655,0.210202567 -M_DENSE_1D,0.0712116931,0.0821914373,0.0773717212,0.0906527349,0.0776412798,0.0817335467,0.0817335467,0.0844361527,0.1131422312,0.1051447846,0.1323504645,0.1459052349,0.1367572058,0.2323397334,0.2363624963 -M_DENSE_1H,0.1198308475,0.1208851977,0.1143436056,0.1267713853,0.1296769427,0.1209575592,0.1209575592,0.1339606641,0.2346087824,0.2211301613,12.8518608164,0.7918015547,0.2731296131,0.84829413,0.8946267050000001 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.1878149403,0.1889248146,0.1894354422,0.1918294193,0.2040341404,0.197437778,0.197437778,0.2118998785,0.2672484294,0.2672484294,0.9991056751,0.2434722417,0.2672484294,0.6619538384,0.6804962505000001 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.1329118955,0.1368741884,0.1394973218,0.1399772683,0.1666049443,0.1447212932,0.1447212932,0.1764986928,0.2449234495,0.2187159408,4510502977.541462,0.3559208311,0.2910650923,0.9157567452,1.0097515601 -australian_tourism,0.0714093581,0.0861105624,0.0761527549,0.1044141415,0.07310177,0.1053900171,0.1140447009,0.0836038879,0.0747720206,0.0866216851,0.0760110551,0.0823354804,0.0905870679,0.1922018184,0.2141353268 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.2574968709,0.3395892762,0.3062390652,0.4180692521,0.3020415377,0.3259227696,0.3259227696,0.4028991374,1.2739406784,1.4044947577,1.4288888475,1.3542131559,2.0969368333,1.3379066541,1.3508241876 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.3972980474,1.2724528657,0.7904916189000001,1.0846777557,0.6797159368,1.2750077013,1.2750077013,0.5857720953000001,1.5128526941,1.8771775481,1.6113720868,1.6069322946,2.2877704895,1.4507804453,1.731649134 -boomlet_1062,0.4575715706,0.462540047,0.4710064002,0.4560339911,0.4854876351,0.4872201343,0.5409239931000001,0.5396810790000001,0.7822110511,0.5907259586,1.0658179181,1.085539266,0.7418110944,3.1996986673,3.4646472151 -boomlet_1209,0.2624618736,0.2759885511,0.2609844697,0.2511164388,0.3699793008,0.2879466627,0.301826322,0.2937933689,1.0148176093,0.4535022053,0.5015055777,1.1157526247,0.5015055777,1.328999921,1.4420052382000002 -boomlet_1225,0.0982049927,0.0990409314,0.1000748977,0.0968533979,0.1144239787,0.1024577962,0.1066372427,0.1172112941,0.1451941336,0.12260998,0.1651551358,0.1711256418,0.3809038981,0.3809038981,0.3876340759 -boomlet_1230,0.2619779044,0.2653064283,0.2547608466,0.2477353188,0.3987332881,0.2744689053,0.3010213735,0.2814650284,0.9994018454,0.4477425115,228079607857629.03,1.1951987922,0.5006062673,1.7490874961,1.895555107 -boomlet_1282,0.285764271,0.2813823066,0.2769507583,0.2786303196,0.292132349,0.2943955518,0.3174313196,0.3125554342,0.49773322,0.3750317971,0.62613098,0.6672579187000001,1.0473420209,1.0473420209,1.0675288199 -boomlet_1487,0.1664420374,0.1679334305,0.1621616582,0.1572610369,0.2936465116,0.179562264,0.190011281,0.1963999731,0.2664583485,0.2570055801,0.2835559204,0.3266562805,0.3287160259,2.1936503487,2.3761204352 -boomlet_1631,0.2500221983,0.2578011825,0.2521962154,0.2530865122,0.294595714,0.2594328079,0.2712471357,0.2762733263,0.3678343488,0.3678343488,0.3219452018,0.3246702609,0.3678343488,0.5939295732000001,0.6115095201 -boomlet_1676,0.2538630455,0.2548401001,0.2519960915,0.2495295993,0.2853155601,0.2579772293,0.2757684538,0.274422727,0.3899388202,0.3899388202,0.3561141453,0.3689668234,0.3899388202,0.5376397046,0.5530190574 -boomlet_1855,0.1371847144,0.1348268939,0.1418942616,0.1355059408,0.1913295293,0.139558043,0.1402605794,0.1563253928,0.2389634823,0.2316298817,0.2553622581,0.2591897672,0.3053456375,0.5272950774,0.5309525567 -boomlet_1975,0.0754861445,0.1095269694,0.0946619153,0.0726927455,0.1155713746,0.1195154441,0.1030843609,0.1103445012,0.3109341662,0.3101025558,0.3508947927,0.3645838608,0.490065287,0.3511931898,0.3522290761 -boomlet_2187,0.2318940214,0.2304085287,0.2575487452,0.24435445,0.2994495011,0.2578882698,0.2524757438,0.2800640842,0.4312238249,0.4412020452,0.4456954551,0.4740037125,0.5699897289,1.0418096521,1.049295268 -boomlet_285,0.1346407886,0.148143136,0.1683399577,0.1331450908,0.1553438735,0.1889532567,0.2234209762,0.2244579194,0.3030251372,0.2917086037,0.3012758228,0.3165758913,1.2032068551,1.2032068551,1.2258270453 -boomlet_619,0.2302330542,0.2471279568,0.2458341339,0.2162579975,0.2349216897,0.2356420104,0.3764453393,0.2649462131,0.6585898854000001,0.4527380943,0.7635945062,0.6993259862,0.9678549923,0.9678549923,0.9877621571 -boomlet_772,0.133101379,0.136682574,0.1358824185,0.1307594429,0.1546550252,0.1437870275,0.155831971,0.1611776721,0.4436068427,0.3102148884,233223016.4792193,0.5422949313000001,0.9858607218,0.9858607218,1.0040136572 -boomlet_963,0.3166849574,0.3257730396,0.3291269599,0.3152013005,0.368648075,0.3420300574,0.3596501239,0.3456713575,0.6331985559000001,0.5019102045,0.7424657093,0.716591367,0.811345873,0.811345873,0.8256079501 -ecdc_ili,0.3096012701,0.3706244122,0.3434282741,0.3944662068,0.3232828815,0.3850819865,0.4167010575,0.4694310556,0.5427352164,0.5348657716,0.5818744542000001,0.5760490118,0.5547015104,0.5547015104,0.5751070381 -entsoe_15T,0.0332921944,0.03370606,0.0334792124,0.0413516905,0.0335205629,0.0343344442,0.0362665583,0.0499695365,0.0566124331,0.0566124331,0.313985467,0.04302748,0.0566124331,0.1154915649,0.1262425683 -entsoe_1H,0.0261903902,0.0293722588,0.029016943,0.0302241335,0.0272967255,0.033285571,0.0281751907,0.050980506,0.0660357719,0.0666871832,0.1446894285,0.0693891454,0.0798215745,0.144830171,0.1529602098 -entsoe_30T,0.0290675118,0.0314140317,0.0388367365,0.0301774471,0.0321818804,0.0318440586,0.0321248654,0.0485585461,0.0612238614,0.0731621073,0.1815717143,0.0571609073,0.0725922166,0.1142494542,0.1132384606 -epf_be,0.0901568527,0.0962218885,0.0904647786,0.1057693667,0.0932975438,0.0968269743,0.106932535,0.116974555,0.2109061816,0.1868416274,0.2658805243,0.2582438044,0.2012625857,0.5357212884,0.5396597512 -epf_de,0.2407177006,0.468452292,0.4775486473,0.5515425934,0.2426255873,0.4585770885,0.4643713196,0.5102784096,0.4882154408,0.5432797572,0.5287818089,0.6490481061000001,0.5919144005,0.5286529239000001,0.5344012453 -epf_fr,0.0548184758,0.063925129,0.0640304463,0.0682821872,0.0491162423,0.0646047834,0.0684544774,0.0719692742,0.1676570118,0.171487674,0.1386675645,0.2296495476,0.1818024008,0.5500836774,0.5542629353 -epf_np,0.0297236562,0.0438147562,0.0519221,0.0471320493,0.0293296573,0.0419786745,0.0445199614,0.0428252373,0.05738593,0.0636813178,0.086372811,0.0578512541,0.0691889058,0.0868798682,0.0869585173 -epf_pjm,0.0667749027,0.071403604,0.0757086151,0.0799833604,0.0739926826,0.0766169612,0.0739331273,0.084093308,0.0862614181,0.0855296797,0.1606961463,0.1068456977,0.0908421958,0.1641666584,0.1656245552 -ercot_1D,0.059742223,0.0583644776,0.0590120341,0.0621409451,0.0688811199,0.0637608291,0.0620146905,0.0665392831,0.0936050684,0.0865494548,0.1027502478,0.1055339552,0.1044921679,0.1043182678,0.1051661229 -ercot_1H,0.0517757176,0.0542294904,0.0584985426,0.0555864688,0.0615615188,0.0563341027,0.0597259069,0.0625128045,0.0642267414,0.0597358018,0.1494485063,0.0646341807,0.0682466944,0.1331050238,0.1354763369 -ercot_1M,0.0374032877,0.0419160577,0.0380629909,0.0530588211,0.0407906509,0.0509930124,0.0398626935,0.0434627402,0.0375336712,0.0388325707,0.0371511279,0.0470765052,0.0427842586,0.2106942527,0.2307212042 -ercot_1W,0.0461530362,0.0457429263,0.0465659059,0.0515355854,0.0531508617,0.0502061941,0.0467287195,0.0583864951,0.1138242996,0.1129826874,0.1134717335,0.1163159858,0.1143459151,0.1143459151,0.1147730701 -favorita_stores_1D,0.1111436042,0.1242660249,0.1184216613,0.1439165317,0.1204039869,0.1278709711,0.1418629323,0.1353609503,0.1606265395,0.1647292421,0.1672181851,0.1778642628,0.2375760789,0.4079240646,0.4110111744 -favorita_stores_1M,0.1214689688,0.1421527991,0.1508910378,0.1391907522,0.0943255732,0.1725604577,0.1852146109,0.2222006124,0.1265354908,0.1314480379,0.1328922997,0.1244588255,0.1715121001,0.1701131599,0.1843808726 -favorita_stores_1W,0.1088586482,0.1134128786,0.109472936,0.1223103152,0.1011036417,0.1243048273,0.1268154753,0.1312294599,0.1336292959,0.1331314369,0.1429768358,0.1407957933,0.1608274596,0.1608274596,0.1626164075 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.0493905059,0.067704191,0.0735763953,0.0735763953,0.0603391606,0.0735763953,0.0735763953,0.0710714949,0.094900864,0.1055051904,0.0944759338,0.0991455646,0.1403339153,0.2372471038,0.2388998485 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.0604582892,0.0683964364,0.0642577109,0.0770716759,0.0718016091,0.0756335151,0.0799691906,0.0834713904,0.0705845865,0.0776326578,0.0709936943,0.0829960463,0.0855815678,0.1052862092,0.1152703332 -favorita_transactions_1W,0.0471234517,0.049259837,0.0528246684,0.0575771001,0.0575076503,0.0569446098,0.0528246684,0.0632163955,0.0648065086,0.0648478224,0.0694461916,0.0703094331,0.0783787891,0.0783787891,0.080280481 -fred_md_2025/cee,0.0668234172,0.0670834958,0.0750783838,0.0750783838,0.0743757483,0.0750783838,0.0750783838,0.0954701869,0.1051946757,0.133660425,0.0757646768,0.1182489158,0.2073879582,0.1174362958,0.1155920484 -fred_md_2025/macro,0.0658449,0.0651736736,0.0689005701,0.0689005701,0.0703198143,0.0689005701,0.0689005701,0.0758142866,0.0780002055,0.0859787221,0.0754502178,0.0815239103,0.119592083,0.0816199937,0.0813235213 -fred_qd_2025/cee,0.13493629,0.1205702323,0.1290291477,0.1111966207,0.1232875729,0.1271824649,0.1238446163,0.1631968012,0.1373877839,0.1474873424,0.1365938852,0.1482369083,0.194192155,0.1537726616,0.1492650928 -fred_qd_2025/macro,0.0877492891,0.0847291191,0.0852353396,0.0836177008,0.0926080385,0.0863520335,0.0870314598,0.1012011908,0.0918310561,0.0955504799,0.0949233782,0.0954220424,0.1198022215,0.0963745296,0.0950284899 -gvar,0.0149820687,0.0150792847,0.0152665936,0.0149166365,0.0179419087,0.015061142,0.015482776,0.0185296964,0.0162937715,0.0169170494,0.0159433726,0.0166324554,0.0212211567,0.0176762713,0.0174836229 -hermes,0.00225818,0.0024187939,0.0022928048,0.0036102677,0.0026219625,0.0026712263,0.0025240351,0.0031453384,0.0061269301,0.0050407278,0.0073879456,0.0068258834,0.0087083111,0.0087083111,0.0090940295 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5714809959,0.5556084899,0.5615462267,0.5599444088000001,0.5928670205000001,0.5634020932,0.5634020932,0.647815962,0.8177303567,0.6915383974,0.9358165942,0.9689367577,1.1222145629,1.6764214744,1.6911406182 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.3648561995,0.3675267983,0.36900549,0.3702396077,0.3741749103,0.3762527696,0.3762527696,0.4228486488,0.465201591,0.4672185482,7.8275973261,0.4883602498,0.9260072924,0.9260072924,0.9465583798 -hospital,0.0748078224,0.0726720337,0.0714240645,0.0782312026,0.0744330876,0.075323756,0.075323756,0.0900986355,0.0749195627,0.0845424144,0.0759570393,0.0813819141,0.0783920641,0.1042062258,0.1105393325 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.4112482571,0.4117757474,0.4124642645,0.4120033633,0.4170562141,0.4120897736,0.4125280894,0.4526293478,0.41312756,0.4121681663,0.4122712942,0.4263733391,0.6361459769000001,0.9837276521,0.9916738218 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.1624167729,0.1647817222,0.1632100946,0.1680866908,0.163762699,0.1651659256,0.1652841678,0.1802484199,0.1630497452,0.1631143081,0.1628325575,0.168270042,0.2969374559,0.2969374559,0.3078008055 -jena_weather_10T,0.2528507588,0.2661828374,0.2127668736,0.2353999499,0.2551716964,0.2625552838,0.2625552838,0.3371179261,1.7057621919,1.7057621919,3.1495387185,3.5724878985,1.7057621919,3.6828586054,3.8552910899 -jena_weather_1D,0.2257062563,0.2210204491,0.218506197,0.2246469289,0.2320364869,0.2254046561,0.2254046561,0.2665635899,0.3084284928,0.3017046194,0.3511726073,0.352949988,0.4719762386,0.6992484433,0.7361988018000001 -jena_weather_1H,0.2250019598,0.2168159034,0.2233014541,0.2068719624,0.2343045768,0.234099159,0.234099159,0.4350680693,1.0549343053,0.8256929905,1.4084504179,1.6859107034,1.2878361856,1.6601789319,1.6730314795 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,1.2012688912,1.3753457151,1.3753457151,1.3753457151,2.3282104591,1.3753457151,1.3753457151,1.3753457151,3.4658735242,3.4658735242,2.5986419348,2.5543058657,3.4658735242,2.6760920983,2.9246115818 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.5599962195,0.556621323,0.5527344226,0.5570149360000001,0.5680073145,0.5630864114,0.5631888802,0.6469029607,0.5920639476,0.5843812529,0.6089510673,0.5966451508,0.75069981,0.9265198159,0.948426295 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,1.3117733464,1.3401124353,1.6757596515,1.3756596821,2.2207570053,1.2046794654,2.2656435299,1.6183676077,2.2310513851,2.1850967479,2.6468743604,2.5972049691,3.2580293089,2.5790907336,2.6373925567 -m5_1D,0.5553520672,0.5522750547,0.5619946767,0.5619946767,0.8588793502000001,0.5619946767,0.5619946767,0.6369837787,0.8588793502000001,0.611489809,0.6156373922,0.6265285781000001,0.8588793502000001,1.352981474,1.3656864863 -m5_1M,0.3477280433,0.3446529974,0.3370295405,0.3648378977,0.3466619129,0.3456589364,0.3566383823,0.3886462021,0.3701215676,0.380094291,0.4320692413,0.4195249159,0.4285745193,0.4471596243,0.5002848742 -m5_1W,0.3375480209,0.3359465585,0.3409590155,0.3368808055,0.3436698517,0.3361267514,0.3409590155,0.3622685986,0.3617147564,0.3580006782,0.3728147004,0.3767071031,0.5198944018,0.5198944018,0.5321822364000001 -proenfo_gfc12,0.0555966972,0.0771150803,0.077263494,0.077263494,0.0702222225,0.077263494,0.077263494,0.0732963269,0.1181658339,0.0987456528,0.2072982242,0.1250899583,0.1088404134,0.2075379042,0.2175193024 -proenfo_gfc14,0.0210605929,0.0353901819,0.0375513457,0.0375513457,0.0252054415,0.0375513457,0.0375513457,0.0204786531,0.0444124312,0.0464290142,0.0544938011,0.0519159577,0.0529491741,0.158759622,0.1683589627 -proenfo_gfc17,0.0315349159,0.0597007945,0.0608284875,0.0608284875,0.0440642892,0.0608284875,0.0608284875,0.0315794369,0.0769991028,0.0761960672,0.146648178,0.0769725348,0.0897222269,0.1691034077,0.1777795871 -redset_15T,0.2174028756,0.2431114555,0.2501147518,0.2510706717,0.2325884637,0.2504748238,0.2713077355,0.2914044606,0.4607365658,0.4607365658,0.4607365658,0.940375013,0.4607365658,1.565727146,1.6075485006 -redset_1H,0.1754538486,0.1792595698,0.1953408446,0.1912104253,0.1873583276,0.1892621749,0.2027229088,0.2287683337,0.3644260201,0.347358315,3.3022819464,0.471399676,0.4120467256,0.8881015738,0.8935980201 -redset_5T,0.2706931879,0.3109114114,0.288140782,0.2789818321,0.289831124,0.3116496574,0.3706331476,0.3372367613,0.9331343204,0.6814341656,0.5026322375,1.1479851264,0.5026322375,2.8198686088,3.0482376442 -restaurant,0.2820261405,0.282683528,0.2808265082,0.2932229182,0.286941911,0.2874369433,0.2874369433,0.3121784735,0.2987534022,0.3174475777,0.4313426382,0.3228884373,0.4263793897,0.7194392994000001,0.7547545082 -rohlik_orders_1D,0.0453576139,0.046778087,0.0473405217,0.0531957347,0.0585028628,0.0454924381,0.0495487283,0.0570594271,0.0551848097,0.0603755941,0.0637016666,0.0607226711,0.0730389024,0.1384185633,0.141017357 -rohlik_orders_1W,0.0419834037,0.0425926735,0.0430425121,0.0489199152,0.049953361,0.0500948995,0.047050427,0.0608989622,0.0465205009,0.0471291762,0.046928104,0.0464560362,0.0498648091,0.0498648091,0.0497673655 -rohlik_sales_1D,0.2203668339,0.3154378947,0.2983877224,0.3351760018,0.3727953997,0.3202051989,0.3139840107,0.3250144355,0.3425447103,0.3459201995,0.3543382966,0.3563233504,0.3727953997,0.4099413728,0.4141182186 -rohlik_sales_1W,0.1860678419,0.2252347071,0.2196835891,0.2348251568,0.1697896851,0.2364913465,0.2336631822,0.2594374504,0.2595910509,0.2670259076,4.0491052559,0.2655509054,0.3323396817,0.3323396817,0.3393924276 -rossmann_1D,0.0954525644,0.1837160416,0.171116383,0.1931728074,0.0772288962,0.1799313223,0.178806336,0.1802362487,0.1969163908,0.1908416644,0.2028079674,0.291009868,0.3139894604,0.93885619,0.9579696488 -rossmann_1W,0.080244381,0.1304017962,0.1350575869,0.1345092339,0.0659741153,0.1342178268,0.1317076013,0.1572071227,0.135127457,0.1410069966,0.1401558708,0.1385267381,0.2508975252,0.2508975252,0.2680805063 -solar_1D,0.1855480723,0.1929553199,0.1938342095,0.1955625549,0.1919496514,0.2003849004,0.1990286403,0.2094179217,0.2041438251,0.2053532934,0.2049319678,0.2116725603,0.2794918566,0.4319792148,0.4569554917 -solar_1W,0.1513635002,0.1885658631,0.1848997811,0.2335483112,0.1459644443,0.2786290198,0.1573930974,0.1567824467,0.2181202588,0.2154878912,0.2063617654,0.2389863753,0.241539109,0.241539109,0.3053960241 -solar_with_weather_15T,0.9550527662,1.2067686983,1.2404817956,0.9998316485,0.9712352474,1.1204703544,1.1300785408,1.3507714502,1.4073798197,1.4073798197,1.9572357231,3.2872524251,1.4073798197,1.6964307303,1.7761051768 -solar_with_weather_1H,0.9780600605,1.2498913502,0.9695951652,1.2191318813,0.7960101453,1.2285296788,1.0189950233,1.3598337832,1.1487515083,1.2702665577,1.3928226357,2.6714879984,1.3170887607,1.3916210721,1.3968565452 -uci_air_quality_1D,0.2146017853,0.2321704936,0.2425060369,0.2553475038,0.239766452,0.2299092189,0.2228595882,0.2497182101,0.2303977966,0.2530270906,0.2425004358,0.2579293608,0.2922307509,0.3990393174,0.4166124807 -uci_air_quality_1H,0.2626699164,0.2890236922,0.2903775779,0.2863033352,0.3066820684,0.3062706804,0.3020104526,0.3368853083,0.5268864008,0.3923535075,20468.2757052641,0.6724046824000001,0.460867968,0.8360828268,0.8759093056 -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,0.0161921461,0.0138342964,0.0153292336,0.0125938684,0.0316628726,0.0145084122,0.0190395107,0.0397848581,0.0188346391,0.0173381483,0.0163459748,0.0435228041,0.0616683882,0.0540829702,0.0420838658 -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,0.3207938336,0.3109536889,0.3156210831,0.2838323856,0.3652919167,0.295667223,0.3374595917,0.3704647201,0.6131520742000001,0.6717556157,0.7010568349,0.6249699219,0.7590347607,0.6807093543,0.6959726061 -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,0.0231629073,0.0306531397,0.0334625898,0.0259156466,0.0313019374,0.0235252689,0.0308278174,0.0470469389,0.0198408228,0.0621980203,0.0195175599,0.0457146098,0.0708838512,0.0708838512,0.0450304907 -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,0.5773892559,0.5056475261,0.3916377081,0.5874941513,0.5181874025000001,0.4243048101,0.4123778016,0.346954435,0.4963902021,0.7570660296,0.4600308825,0.4631006396,0.4524501242,0.4524501242,0.4739863292 -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,0.3910187444,0.3797951228,0.3533112754,0.4097196009,0.3768120784,0.3538288145,0.3616969038,0.3594274377,0.5001590872,0.6134348659000001,0.5094112038,0.476165342,0.4420318364,0.5157896779,0.5265475783 -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,0.171083851,0.2003527874,0.1901138083,0.1555521636,0.16972636,0.195409151,0.1670758111,0.2660261673,0.138335546,0.1351972799,0.1685579648,0.186827715,0.2340614394,0.2340614394,0.1835390955 -us_consumption_1M,0.0197271574,0.0197402218,0.0226701155,0.0205041485,0.0243746544,0.0218430056,0.0218589731,0.032429082,0.0214320964,0.0239150894,0.0201648123,0.0272716281,0.0497079002,0.032661543,0.0266511556 -us_consumption_1Q,0.0274404827,0.0279758108,0.026686332,0.0270793373,0.039451329,0.0274257255,0.0277102453,0.050684032,0.0294259535,0.030008464,0.0292799577,0.0412327495,0.0619774434,0.0509220091,0.0386050624 -us_consumption_1Y,0.0498855623,0.0438966964,0.0465564099,0.0546159459,0.0536317719,0.0851402532,0.0656167649,0.0997271328,0.0515666785,0.0428692104,0.0592817405,0.0967727372,0.1514273794,0.1514273794,0.0943820837 -walmart,0.0739271753,0.0849769317,0.0803039051,0.113539905,0.0751515146,0.1057545178,0.0950021434,0.1036346439,0.1643578174,0.1319843981,119300400139.46916,0.1996789224,0.3075011099,0.3075011099,0.3407542314 -world_co2_emissions,0.0729773107,0.0707450544,0.0751862129,0.0712556895,0.0717195922,0.076153015,0.0727688426,0.0955702861,0.0701479592,0.0705282623,0.0887646329,0.0742405541,0.0832284265,0.0832284265,0.073077502 -world_life_expectancy,0.0095948732,0.0089847076,0.0097525655,0.0120911181,0.0093362704,0.0144690768,0.0108645301,0.0129798805,0.010866463,0.0112841979,0.0107918452,0.0118279018,0.0143077928,0.0143077928,0.0130987043 -world_tourism,0.0908975711,0.0849997606,0.0984825726,0.0868200211,0.0601786476,0.0894951758,0.0889419278,0.1403522964,0.0552036802,0.0578924108,0.0724923711,0.0479228397,0.0866853455,0.0866853455,0.0439170643 diff --git a/tables/pivot_WQL_baseline_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_WQL_baseline_imputed.csv deleted file mode 100644 index be7f304946dd4724a769bc4a48cfe85800a571d5..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL_baseline_imputed.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 7531fb0ed79d9411c997316ec05ecb01a15689d2..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,101 +0,0 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/summaries.csv b/tables/summaries.csv deleted file mode 100644 index b7c63090eef735ed2c25d52ad7b12f2fa62b2a55..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/tables/summaries.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,1475 +0,0 @@ -model_name,dataset_path,dataset_config,horizon,num_windows,initial_cutoff,window_step_size,min_context_length,max_context_length,seasonality,eval_metric,extra_metrics,quantile_levels,id_column,timestamp_column,target,generate_univariate_targets_from,known_dynamic_columns,past_dynamic_columns,static_columns,task_name,test_error,training_time_s,inference_time_s,dataset_fingerprint,trained_on_this_dataset,fev_version,SQL,MASE,WAPE,WQL,framework_version,device_map,torch_dtype,num_forecasts -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.2587593653,0.0,94.30531113,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.2587593653,1.4311893424,0.3554786793,0.3320927513,2.0.1,,,280 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,1.052404926,0.0,4252.341582475,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,1.052404926,1.2616150196,0.2729976766,0.2275419988,2.0.1,,,280 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.4423112635,0.0,3.075158716,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.4423112635,2.7471493707,0.5033163548,0.4761461158,2.0.1,,,70 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8099517857,0.0,690.761802885,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.8099517857,0.9888675362,0.0375884525,0.0306907047,2.0.1,,,3230 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,1.0012742792,0.0,201.616476622,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,1.0012742792,0.9670797236,0.1080897018,0.1111745205,2.0.1,,,3230 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.9701754768,0.0,191.520785417,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.9701754768,1.168959753,0.1260855269,0.1051447846,2.0.1,,,300 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,1.0625833478,0.0,2922.979243606,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,1.0625833478,1.1833753219,0.2454276025,0.2211301613,2.0.1,,,300 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.6584161139,0.0,874.88661334,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.6584161139,0.6365009349,0.2079726383,0.2187159408,2.0.1,,,312 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.8009680433,0.0,6.64264725,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.8009680433,1.0124394981,0.1101633608,0.0866216851,2.0.1,,,178 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.6185436377,0.0,2104.226476309,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.6185436377,0.7748607972,1.7735276449,1.4044947577,2.0.1,,,140 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.8247104427,0.0,28.344385256,9cb515b57514a9ab,False,0.7.0,0.8247104427,0.9163295742,1.5979523685,1.8771775481,2.0.1,,,140 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1062,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1062,0.7541477798,0.0,78.962797638,44381d6f431f8c90,False,0.7.0,0.7541477798,0.9510023935,0.7457671713,0.5907259586,2.0.1,,,420 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1209,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 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'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.5544648012,0.0,118.751464044,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,0.5544648012,0.7170247042,0.5880218188,0.4527380943,2.0.1,,,1040 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 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1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.1056032467,0.0,102.22344786,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,1.1056032467,1.1099255146,0.5164873201,0.5019102045,2.0.1,,,560 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.6414550365,0.0,13.853262378,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,3.6414550365,4.1963805493,0.5880377501,0.5348657716,2.0.1,,,240 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{'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.0560628345,0.0,1342.527721244,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,1.0560628345,1.0947820348,0.1986222906,0.1868416274,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.2777053882,0.0,1147.623217557,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.2777053882,1.6231053542,0.6818832021,0.5432797572,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load 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{'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.6323137052,0.0,21.807732356,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.6323137052,1.7908498043,0.0730921635,0.0648478224,2.0.1,,,510 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,5.8791415649,0.0,117.973159651,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,5.8791415649,6.3656916747,0.101570566,0.133660425,2.0.1,,,60 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.4369650923,0.0,4211.501263962,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.4369650923,0.5091821891,0.9374862075,0.8256929905,2.0.1,,,420 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.720047667,0.0,124.40719599,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.720047667,0.9552154519,0.7844091415000001,0.5843812529,2.0.1,,,1340 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,1.1408344793,0.0,1178.840724847,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,1.1408344793,1.3848285732,0.1193260785,0.0987456528,2.0.1,,,110 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.947126445,0.0,1781.279978721,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.947126445,1.1681324943,0.0571345754,0.0464290142,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.1149783841,0.0,3695.573905165,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,1.1149783841,1.3821477017,0.0943354612,0.0761960672,2.0.1,,,160 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0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.4146777164,0.0,2.656755436,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.4146777164,1.7324467216,0.0584325351,0.0471291762,2.0.1,,,35 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 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'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.5212168044000001,0.0,289.813093582,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.5212168044000001,0.6688824183000001,0.1835633125,0.1410069966,2.0.1,,,8920 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6575818024,0.0,114.870392584,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6575818024,0.8072395918,0.2527682468,0.2053532934,2.0.1,,,1370 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.2798883181,0.0,2.782619612,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,1.2798883181,1.7335090246,0.2914025486,0.2154878912,2.0.1,,,137 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'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,21704350706303.93,0.0,3.198010096,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,21704350706303.93,1.7226801126,0.2950883508,119300400139.46916,2.0.1,,,2936 -AutoETS,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,7.7240531151,0.0,3.785459779,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,7.7240531151,3.2990698517,0.0843222712,0.0887646329,2.0.1,,,1719 -AutoETS,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 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-AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,1.1098659427,0.0,175.773219738,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,1.1098659427,0.9937342132,0.1108838413,0.121969972,2.0.1,,,3230 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,1.1434781616,0.0,7.770231326,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,1.1434781616,1.0771913138,0.1322432969,0.1459052349,2.0.1,,,300 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.3296940654,0.0,54.739283896,5d9eb3c2d9389376,False,0.7.0,0.3296940654,0.3003114491,0.1596047961,0.1711256418,2.0.1,,,980 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 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-AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 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'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.6292227757000001,0.0,26.577296455,3d8d0f68506b1995,False,0.7.0,0.6292227757000001,0.5697333157000001,0.3240569453,0.3645838608,2.0.1,,,1500 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_2187,1.389411779,0.0,68.140518065,c3fe1a491401b248,False,0.7.0,1.389411779,1.2716040444,0.441407778,0.4740037125,2.0.1,,,2000 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,1.3318503729,0.0,37.733115875,3dfa571029207f1f,False,0.7.0,1.3318503729,0.7305756426000001,0.3717445356,0.3165758913,2.0.1,,,1500 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.8352158487,0.0,22.155099945,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,0.8352158487,1.0200015813,0.8820872245,0.6993259862,2.0.1,,,1040 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,1.4390517121,0.0,49.752985414,66ce5fbc5ad575a2,False,0.7.0,1.4390517121,0.6163309557000001,0.2834336899,0.5422949313000001,2.0.1,,,1340 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.4536844039,0.0,17.082664727,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,1.4536844039,1.1004605986,0.5049570994,0.716591367,2.0.1,,,560 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.8437922843,0.0,3.597034584,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,3.8437922843,4.2528905756,0.5694230199,0.5760490118,2.0.1,,,240 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.5794334285,0.0,8.175039881,34c503cb4346b380,False,0.7.0,0.5794334285,0.7298063048,0.0539835229,0.04302748,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.9723015525,0.0,9.86522695,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,0.9723015525,1.1626008244,0.0836396273,0.0693891454,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.7996836131,0.0,8.773509415,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,0.7996836131,1.0040370692,0.0721444593,0.0571609073,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.4843337008000002,0.0,4.052144202,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,1.4843337008000002,1.0193650689,0.1881915066,0.2582438044,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.4943830235,0.0,1.4522195,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.4943830235,1.407198376,0.6459928796000001,0.6490481061000001,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,1.5911735884,0.0,4.241378194,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,1.5911735884,0.8447495724,0.1293735383,0.2296495476,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,1.2812041765,0.0,1.410720192,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,1.2812041765,1.514020593,0.0688152587,0.0578512541,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.6031844165,0.0,1.430002319,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.6031844165,0.6832480189,0.1198625589,0.1068456977,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,1.4186958416,0.0,9.469445659,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,1.4186958416,1.5801931826,0.1169790924,0.1055339552,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.2749705934,0.0,8.370239174,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.2749705934,1.5835893744,0.081462577,0.0646341807,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.9653005355,0.0,3.713059389,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.9653005355,1.2051001185,0.0593784221,0.0470765052,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.1282361494,0.0,11.984929096,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,2.1282361494,2.66207578,0.1458645716,0.1163159858,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.2731528133,0.0,784.588849778,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,1.2731528133,1.3758675565,0.1834860831,0.1778642628,2.0.1,,,15790 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,1.9416452953,0.0,3.06092775,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,1.9416452953,2.1335008012,0.1535032243,0.1244588255,2.0.1,,,3158 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.3159830026,0.0,43.819227892,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.3159830026,2.4768022229,0.1443628684,0.1407957933,2.0.1,,,15790 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.2463370552,0.0,67.022452779,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,1.2463370552,1.2511063806,0.0961165557,0.0991455646,2.0.1,,,510 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.2743467248,0.0,0.8116229330000001,a9ebe0fd05a285b6,False,0.7.0,1.2743467248,1.4898451778,0.0943706955,0.0829960463,2.0.1,,,102 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.7020928499,0.0,7.358726534,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.7020928499,1.7230820362,0.0703343528,0.0703094331,2.0.1,,,510 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 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{'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,1.5539343318,0.0,9.990984067,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,1.5539343318,1.8477529328,0.0081041083,0.0068258834,2.0.1,,,10000 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.815310861,0.0,46.334364247,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.815310861,0.8693462262,0.9374910116,0.9689367577,2.0.1,,,1180 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.7744970082,0.0,7.811036284,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.7744970082,0.9154643589,0.5616531372,0.4883602498,2.0.1,,,1180 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.7401804136,0.0,5.374221504,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.7401804136,0.9215507227,0.0992142502,0.0813819141,2.0.1,,,3068 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5748023874,0.0,8.37668388,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.5748023874,0.7428646667000001,0.5510431179,0.4263733391,2.0.1,,,160 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1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7391822834,0.0,10.131362893,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.7391822834,0.9764039863,0.8038047969000001,0.5966451508,2.0.1,,,1340 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.7653501983000001,0.0,27.150303236,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.7653501983000001,0.8416018012,2.3053818822,2.5972049691,2.0.1,,,1340 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,0.8721490279,0.0,763.6272551,0d8bfe3780a2c494,False,0.7.0,0.8721490279,1.0805686532,0.7779017687,0.6265285781000001,2.0.1,,,30490 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0987392502,0.0,19.650036874,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0987392502,1.2589934317,0.491009295,0.4195249159,2.0.1,,,29364 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9633961601,0.0,85.610458824,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9633961601,1.1697733846,0.4475453794,0.3767071031,2.0.1,,,30490 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,1.414921573,0.0,6.908236052,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,1.414921573,1.5236522096,0.1359507203,0.1250899583,2.0.1,,,110 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,1.0554823676,0.0,1.681859291,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,1.0554823676,1.185656643,0.0579787859,0.0519159577,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.1469535851,0.0,7.015415077,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,1.1469535851,1.3687323787,0.0931363594,0.0769725348,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,10.1219214394,0.0,84.653734861,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,10.1219214394,1.597597259,0.4040436536,0.940375013,2.0.1,,,1260 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,4.0716886989,0.0,91.903643195,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,4.0716886989,2.0202444582,0.371760726,0.471399676,2.0.1,,,1380 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,3.3566436475,0.0,69.756080885,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,3.3566436475,2.3397807513,0.6252421260000001,1.1479851264,2.0.1,,,1180 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.7607880054,0.0,32.034104421,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.7607880054,0.9184892419,0.3923323192,0.3228884373,2.0.1,,,6502 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.3973344823,0.0,11.789316734,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.3973344823,1.5185276042,0.0664489299,0.0607226711,2.0.1,,,35 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.5160293344,0.0,24.341015707,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.5160293344,0.6643635235,0.1812564228,0.1385267381,2.0.1,,,8920 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6785205054,0.0,8.802713676,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6785205054,0.8376174094000001,0.2619624853,0.2116725603,2.0.1,,,1370 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.4256110648,0.0,0.411495805,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,1.4256110648,2.0936290706,0.3495942652,0.2389863753,2.0.1,,,137 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0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.1818506739,0.0,1.093406847,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.1818506739,5.813977235,0.4545178637,0.4631006396,2.0.1,,,48 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,5.0552633527,0.0,28.541335111,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,5.0552633527,5.820038846,0.5472069114,0.476165342,2.0.1,,,2140 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,20.1018108531,0.0,2.416687945,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,20.1018108531,21.4127050868,0.2025926664,0.186827715,2.0.1,,,1070 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.704219721,0.0,11.185354677,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.704219721,1.9291138764,0.0304996581,0.0272716281,2.0.1,,,310 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,2.3452449672,0.0,4.407387248,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,2.3452449672,2.6435650081,0.0455343083,0.0412327495,2.0.1,,,310 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'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.8254620295,0.0,4.029324262,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,2.8254620295,3.2294516112,0.0831107938,0.0742405541,2.0.1,,,1719 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.4512016278,0.0,4.704021132,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.4512016278,1.7124546782,0.0137058759,0.0118279018,2.0.1,,,2370 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,2.5742928529,0.0,0.9003165280000001,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,2.5742928529,2.9312038042,0.0556104314,0.0479228397,2.0.1,,,356 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.5458017173,0.0,3.586513707,8cb2ab653e6a502b,False,0.7.0,0.5458017173,0.6948579833,0.1128598566,0.088140917,,cuda,float32,280 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.1315469549,0.0,0.7686183270000001,087e55aa2b87745b,False,0.7.0,1.1315469549,1.3413765406,0.3210531483,0.2599714581,,cuda,float32,280 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0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.7791980564000001,0.0,1.931354007,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.7791980564000001,0.9599506578,0.0363369958,0.0294338099,,cuda,float32,3230 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6390561899,0.0,37.031710666,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.6390561899,0.7939256021000001,0.0681990332,0.0547949407,,cuda,float32,3230 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.5325340237,0.0,40.187540223,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.5325340237,0.6812013944,0.0736883423,0.0574848175,,cuda,float32,3230 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.6463243558,0.0,0.554261577,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.6463243558,0.7721472947,0.083318119,0.0712116931,,cuda,float32,300 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,0.5854558830000001,0.0,3.7869341,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,0.5854558830000001,0.7132003566,0.1462710002,0.1198308475,,cuda,float32,300 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.3932968835,0.0,5.6139798370000005,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.3932968835,0.4999875762,0.2391328625,0.1878149403,,cuda,float32,1560 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.3977234578,0.0,0.548545775,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.3977234578,0.4878765611,0.1627460048,0.1329118955,,cuda,float32,312 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.6769555487000001,0.0,0.302138557,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.6769555487000001,0.8548582992,0.0905689129,0.0714093581,,cuda,float32,178 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'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,0.6799099954000001,0.0,12.842733295,fc732419f4257b0c,False,0.7.0,0.6799099954000001,0.7987706683,0.3048900987,0.2624618736,,cuda,float32,1060 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.1864128972,0.0,11.52890638,e054f8c6bf020ac0,False,0.7.0,0.1864128972,0.2322508868,0.1220172782,0.0982049927,,cuda,float32,980 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,1.201031991,0.0,5.809436434,c41ee8e342ded50d,False,0.7.0,1.201031991,1.3704917157,0.3054680901,0.2619779044,,cuda,float32,460 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,0.4211360586,0.0,8.253764181,b18492522498bc96,False,0.7.0,0.4211360586,0.5228616907,0.3551724804,0.285764271,,cuda,float32,700 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1487,0.4233194118,0.0,13.181763645,6e70705aa0d5c9b6,False,0.7.0,0.4233194118,0.5106600397000001,0.2009541891,0.1664420374,,cuda,float32,1080 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1631,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1631,0.5718706997,0.0,9.49591573,79eaf83557e2eeb4,False,0.7.0,0.5718706997,0.7130379666000001,0.3118222283,0.2500221983,,cuda,float32,800 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1676,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1676,0.5686748679,0.0,23.708879005,083dfc140fd4b463,False,0.7.0,0.5686748679,0.7074172167,0.3237391089,0.2538630455,,cuda,float32,2000 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,0.4615736804,0.0,7.179643713,3b655e92786b24dc,False,0.7.0,0.4615736804,0.5381849547,0.1587321378,0.1371847144,,cuda,float32,1040 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.1333320334,0.0,10.208273635,6e1d9424c5ab2214,False,0.7.0,0.1333320334,0.1607432077,0.0905538287,0.0754861445,,cuda,float32,1500 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 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'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 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'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,0.2827797609,0.0,15.792560741,cf7b0f7fe86838d5,False,0.7.0,0.2827797609,0.331309455,0.1571995002,0.133101379,,cuda,float32,1340 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,0.7165952965,0.0,6.770158875,078a1fcb7a454b72,False,0.7.0,0.7165952965,0.8390323132,0.3817032517,0.3166849574,,cuda,float32,560 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,2.2713937157,0.0,0.50251728,c812e2dbfb11b987,False,0.7.0,2.2713937157,2.7551221016,0.3759767271,0.3096012701,,cuda,float32,240 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.4539692649,0.0,6.155504059,4e80c208c8b54e76,False,0.7.0,0.4539692649,0.5846139379,0.04219648,0.0332921944,,cuda,float32,120 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.4292730862,0.0,5.979634896,a900217b9207dc1a,False,0.7.0,0.4292730862,0.5379602554,0.0329469333,0.0261903902,,cuda,float32,120 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.4335549531,0.0,5.944519921,7a3623a47fa39853,False,0.7.0,0.4335549531,0.54381558,0.0367303018,0.0290675118,,cuda,float32,120 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,0.5032959121,0.0,1.082599386,fef9300bbbbc0b06,False,0.7.0,0.5032959121,0.6470253268,0.115556011,0.0901568527,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,0.491116807,0.0,1.081831324,b0b822e47c7608d3,False,0.7.0,0.491116807,0.6042262072,0.291016907,0.2407177006,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,0.3617711398,0.0,1.083441916,8f5f11f4c654e31f,False,0.7.0,0.3617711398,0.4500649094,0.0680296275,0.0548184758,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,0.6581144952,0.0,1.087317323,269b47960e0cd2ad,False,0.7.0,0.6581144952,0.8501928867,0.0381853723,0.0297236562,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.3815757864,0.0,1.082211405,7087b94a370e1baa,False,0.7.0,0.3815757864,0.4718977319,0.0821098361,0.0667749027,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,0.8691910278,0.0,1.732711958,2d6981ffddeb4d36,False,0.7.0,0.8691910278,1.1382701719,0.0765202672,0.059742223,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.0291210659,0.0,2.206284104,ea7c064764004599,False,0.7.0,1.0291210659,1.3575339606,0.0691227315,0.0517757176,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.7549419478,0.0,0.655916752,3b442c044564a810,False,0.7.0,0.7549419478,0.9503422041,0.0474946219,0.0374032877,,cuda,float32,120 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,0.9664287997,0.0,0.763102481,17d56f9cde303936,False,0.7.0,0.9664287997,1.2194616983,0.0589590463,0.0461530362,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,0.9164120516,0.0,214.025029556,7c6ded4c862d08bd,False,0.7.0,0.9164120516,1.1401981382,0.1382725313,0.1111436042,,cuda,float32,15790 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,1.7943754897000002,0.0,2.739730499,90adf27f0175f9ae,False,0.7.0,1.7943754897000002,1.9751999633,0.1303168371,0.1214689688,,cuda,float32,3158 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.0241017868,0.0,17.016479843,1cf7145738b8996c,False,0.7.0,2.0241017868,2.2987283752,0.1289288979,0.1088586482,,cuda,float32,15790 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,0.684612804,0.0,6.027698108,93e47f4edb5bcbe1,False,0.7.0,0.684612804,0.8493705653,0.0611646173,0.0493905059,,cuda,float32,510 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,0.9426020865,0.0,0.39258552,6f7b1122146e5d93,False,0.7.0,0.9426020865,1.2531106718,0.0719262234,0.0604582892,,cuda,float32,102 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.2279251974,0.0,0.887638111,19b5577b63233e9d,False,0.7.0,1.2279251974,1.498824744,0.0562127232,0.0471234517,,cuda,float32,510 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,3.4681773516,0.0,0.750086279,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,3.4681773516,4.1602404727,0.0808948604,0.0668234172,,cuda,float32,60 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,5.6801712856,0.0,1.282049092,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,5.6801712856,6.7212231389,0.0797789855,0.0658449,,cuda,float32,1020 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,2.1919917498,0.0,0.741199512,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,2.1919917498,2.7861575553,0.1657290639,0.13493629,,cuda,float32,60 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,3.5367304504,0.0,0.7202757230000001,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,3.5367304504,4.2345766276,0.1070199647,0.0877492891,,cuda,float32,1020 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.5781460056000001,0.0,1.129419703,f9353d7e5df197ee,False,0.7.0,0.5781460056000001,0.7105251308,0.0184834703,0.0149820687,,cuda,float32,1980 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,0.6092189134,0.0,10.230260577,e1d9809dc251e19b,False,0.7.0,0.6092189134,0.7761148416,0.0028845992,0.00225818,,cuda,float32,10000 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5567377231,0.0,3.063961534,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.5567377231,0.6889480283,0.7004947938,0.5714809959,,cuda,float32,1180 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6161304379,0.0,0.904692556,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.6161304379,0.7539268543000001,0.4327760933,0.3648561995,,cuda,float32,1180 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.6860471169,0.0,1.182085063,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.6860471169,0.8734575212000001,0.0955333467,0.0748078224,,cuda,float32,3068 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5544475609,0.0,0.7830635300000001,88f43f9f6a96b4f3,False,0.7.0,0.5544475609,0.7170504383,0.5318945219,0.4112482571,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,0.5763906233,0.0,0.6688935810000001,70ba34804e0de04d,False,0.7.0,0.5763906233,0.7508052527,0.2115394616,0.1624167729,,cuda,float32,128 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.3543287448,0.0,5.334178071,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.3543287448,0.4309090154,0.2751553475,0.2528507588,,cuda,float32,420 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.1112540398,0.0,0.505430483,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.1112540398,1.4035573159,0.2763651402,0.2257062563,,cuda,float32,231 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.3530166989,0.0,5.231668932,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.3530166989,0.4373910122,0.2537129335,0.2250019598,,cuda,float32,420 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.4250790923,0.0,164.082725564,571bae673e4dccdd,False,0.7.0,0.4250790923,0.5199208546,1.3604878279,1.2012688912,,cuda,float32,1340 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.703502155,0.0,4.819452862,739c6625d30e6169,False,0.7.0,0.703502155,0.8993091785,0.7152167839,0.5599962195,,cuda,float32,1340 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.4388772718,0.0,161.575712623,bf18bd35bb0df915,False,0.7.0,0.4388772718,0.5419430891,1.5203947999,1.3117733464,,cuda,float32,1340 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,0.7216368132000001,0.0,1335.075510276,f11a35ff7f7adf0e,False,0.7.0,0.7216368132000001,0.8798761359,0.7030550556,0.5553520672,,cuda,float32,30490 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,0.9769838168,0.0,61.000184285,5d40840afc423bdf,False,0.7.0,0.9769838168,1.1638225815,0.4288781907,0.3477280433,,cuda,float32,29364 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9001918553,0.0,123.784906545,8d7cc2396f52bcbc,False,0.7.0,0.9001918553,1.1400355515,0.4283166904,0.3375480209,,cuda,float32,30490 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.6485047492,0.0,2.905235514,7c9ee0786e7de9fc,False,0.7.0,0.6485047492,0.8120010668000001,0.069590554,0.0555966972,,cuda,float32,110 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.4301437324,0.0,0.856846694,eb4b54a1ec3114bf,False,0.7.0,0.4301437324,0.5386864242,0.0263798704,0.0210605929,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,0.4848892231,0.0,3.996093108,2c63b48ca8f6dd9a,False,0.7.0,0.4848892231,0.6103924746,0.0395739348,0.0315349159,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,0.7901010349,0.0,15.017539039,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,0.7901010349,0.9320904759,0.2581138326,0.2174028756,,cuda,float32,1260 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.3653252295,0.0,4.239772629,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.3653252295,1.5030009285,0.2086091326,0.1754538486,,cuda,float32,1380 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,0.6541973572,0.0,14.613528496,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,0.6541973572,0.7864618392,0.329381554,0.2706931879,,cuda,float32,1180 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.6853328207,0.0,4.713149695,cc84996f184fc2f6,False,0.7.0,0.6853328207,0.8599090122,0.3583806779,0.2820261405,,cuda,float32,6502 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,0.9592108487,0.0,0.945095816,1774b84125cff789,False,0.7.0,0.9592108487,1.1869082024,0.0560522973,0.0453576139,,cuda,float32,35 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.2996633839,0.0,0.390706689,bbb0372c6d5883ab,False,0.7.0,1.2996633839,1.5470873451,0.0503461548,0.0419834037,,cuda,float32,35 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,0.8807894575,0.0,103.754533615,c475daf9af96ed16,False,0.7.0,0.8807894575,1.1015615422,0.2762769232,0.2203668339,,cuda,float32,4116 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.2741411479,0.0,20.656814622,09041d7a8a29c83f,False,0.7.0,1.2741411479,1.559672095,0.2291194974,0.1860678419,,cuda,float32,3942 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.2834680757,0.0,99.619566863,29ae5d8fec87a1fd,False,0.7.0,0.2834680757,0.3557646389,0.1197795045,0.0954525644,,cuda,float32,11150 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.3076934923,0.0,13.481720119,cfc14443664745b2,False,0.7.0,0.3076934923,0.3711869984,0.0964419945,0.080244381,,cuda,float32,8920 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.5935714274,0.0,0.97042449,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.5935714274,0.7564704559000001,0.2379390135,0.1855480723,,cuda,float32,1370 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,0.8952785596,0.0,0.300121023,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,0.8952785596,1.1789596563,0.200119924,0.1513635002,,cuda,float32,137 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,0.6769263050000001,0.0,2.718968781,0b6d5a3c52af6282,False,0.7.0,0.6769263050000001,0.8640995981,1.1523838522,0.9550527662,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,0.7672846795,0.0,2.670729875,1ae39ff7d1aba62c,False,0.7.0,0.7672846795,1.0201461351,1.2584228755,0.9780600605,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.0461165946,0.0,0.537146961,2ef57ff0fd03a862,False,0.7.0,1.0461165946,1.3132142732,0.2703591673,0.2146017853,,cuda,float32,44 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,0.7983040373,0.0,1.875038402,031d3ed27aba2c43,False,0.7.0,0.7983040373,1.020596853,0.3364187018,0.2626699164,,cuda,float32,80 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,7.8258561455,0.0,0.810235354,dae0212e3fa73904,False,0.7.0,7.8258561455,9.4466999399,0.0188431325,0.0161921461,,cuda,float32,240 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.0372645497,0.0,0.807997676,dae0212e3fa73904,False,0.7.0,2.0372645497,2.5004449026,0.4026392659,0.3207938336,,cuda,float32,240 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,2.7834425279,0.0,0.34215162,c1544674699f895d,False,0.7.0,2.7834425279,3.5475305311,0.0279646563,0.0231629073,,cuda,float32,48 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,4.9682123605,0.0,0.340204376,c1544674699f895d,False,0.7.0,4.9682123605,6.2817282977,0.7566532683,0.5773892559,,cuda,float32,48 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.7252347533,0.0,2.473749394,2f859aada4961893,False,0.7.0,3.7252347533,4.5459837539,0.4765254823,0.3910187444,,cuda,float32,2140 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,17.4422360824,0.0,0.73376937,35d7c01fd444e4fd,False,0.7.0,17.4422360824,19.8762832276,0.1985057108,0.171083851,,cuda,float32,1070 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.4636824416,0.0,0.60786955,03c47cb66fc4f105,False,0.7.0,1.4636824416,1.7363781866,0.0221474791,0.0197271574,,cuda,float32,310 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,1.7235145142,0.0,0.5001301850000001,91f975812d53dcb0,False,0.7.0,1.7235145142,2.164693101,0.0334895582,0.0274404827,,cuda,float32,310 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,3.7304723943,0.0,0.496727998,941764347d4458f0,False,0.7.0,3.7304723943,4.5651596428,0.0613212118,0.0498855623,,cuda,float32,310 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,0.6478016424,0.0,9.676043143,c55b4fd4c5773129,False,0.7.0,0.6478016424,0.8167399684000001,0.0933870797,0.0739271753,,cuda,float32,2936 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.6702032562,0.0,0.794476625,e202df7b6b66eec1,False,0.7.0,2.6702032562,3.253441165,0.0894456842,0.0729773107,,cuda,float32,1719 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.186574759,0.0,1.095390946,fa80fb81a8121b97,False,0.7.0,1.186574759,1.4501894619,0.01166582,0.0095948732,,cuda,float32,2370 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,3.0519541233,0.0,0.362146038,0dbaf8acdb03871f,False,0.7.0,3.0519541233,3.7800260773,0.1209655751,0.0908975711,,cuda,float32,356 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.5737369405,0.0,1.543872049,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.5737369405,0.7033446670000001,0.1146202493,0.0933383153,,cuda,bfloat16,280 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.1321824157,0.0,0.966285586,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.1321824157,1.3461045465,0.3275848009,0.2669855109,,cuda,bfloat16,280 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,0.9435863248,0.0,2.108095705,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,0.9435863248,1.126722477,0.2464663107,0.2059476241,,cuda,bfloat16,280 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.2795034775,0.0,0.48863731,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.2795034775,2.6260535479,0.4599850744,0.3737931634,,cuda,bfloat16,70 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8051325971000001,0.0,1.011269526,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.8051325971000001,0.9859320366,0.0373221384,0.0304002738,,cuda,bfloat16,3230 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.7646847805,0.0,10.064288414,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.7646847805,0.9188719391,0.0797934189,0.0662523771,,cuda,bfloat16,3230 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.7101241523,0.0,17.011693471,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.7101241523,0.8058940043,0.0886344958,0.0781392419,,cuda,bfloat16,3230 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.7589658968,0.0,0.645907619,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.7589658968,0.9249126529,0.0985291574,0.0817335467,,cuda,bfloat16,300 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,0.5952543328000001,0.0,1.56669377,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,0.5952543328000001,0.7173406545000001,0.1466876373,0.1209575592,,cuda,bfloat16,300 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.9282641589,0.0,0.398788738,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.9282641589,1.167418807,0.1434193179,0.1140447009,,cuda,bfloat16,178 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3419873985,0.0,0.901166637,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.3419873985,0.4308821616,0.4081446098,0.3259227696,,cuda,bfloat16,140 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 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0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,0.7840808515000001,0.0,6.646797168,1466ee197c499055,False,0.7.0,0.7840808515000001,0.8460080897000001,0.3271624692,0.301826322,,cuda,bfloat16,1060 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.2030750841,0.0,1.413893608,5d9eb3c2d9389376,False,0.7.0,0.2030750841,0.2540221924,0.1331294786,0.1066372427,,cuda,bfloat16,980 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,1.266108854,0.0,3.154659847,034f57f6576437cc,False,0.7.0,1.266108854,1.347504774,0.3241073897,0.3010213735,,cuda,bfloat16,460 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,0.461810646,0.0,1.241743579,de65600e18e27fe8,False,0.7.0,0.461810646,0.5646901456,0.3918061855,0.3174313196,,cuda,bfloat16,700 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1487,0.4824435432,0.0,6.722739216,17003e37fda85cdd,False,0.7.0,0.4824435432,0.5268262285,0.2074861592,0.190011281,,cuda,bfloat16,1080 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1631,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1631,0.6194052562,0.0,2.239007029,f5255f15ed8188ab,False,0.7.0,0.6194052562,0.7407561889000001,0.3246407648,0.2712471357,,cuda,bfloat16,800 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1676,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1676,0.6076896737,0.0,4.393347816,20768bc9d5e316c5,False,0.7.0,0.6076896737,0.7192465308,0.3288848916,0.2757684538,,cuda,bfloat16,2000 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,0.4695926826,0.0,1.500956744,ca3cf5b18a145f72,False,0.7.0,0.4695926826,0.5502545471,0.1634840172,0.1402605794,,cuda,bfloat16,1040 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.1793929044,0.0,1.921599249,3d8d0f68506b1995,False,0.7.0,0.1793929044,0.2157351982,0.1244086675,0.1030843609,,cuda,bfloat16,1500 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_2187,0.7746853019000001,0.0,2.369803146,c3fe1a491401b248,False,0.7.0,0.7746853019000001,0.878419842,0.2890647493,0.2524757438,,cuda,bfloat16,2000 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,0.476702899,0.0,1.938218418,3dfa571029207f1f,False,0.7.0,0.476702899,0.5250469024000001,0.2555644857,0.2234209762,,cuda,bfloat16,1500 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.4708614915,0.0,1.495809546,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,0.4708614915,0.5940973904,0.4683247317,0.3764453393,,cuda,bfloat16,1040 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,0.3391929948,0.0,1.816961332,66ce5fbc5ad575a2,False,0.7.0,0.3391929948,0.3956163828,0.1845645847,0.155831971,,cuda,bfloat16,1340 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,0.7786787266,0.0,1.143769098,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,0.7786787266,0.8956312939000001,0.4316260388,0.3596501239,,cuda,bfloat16,560 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,2.6531174908,0.0,0.662689497,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,2.6531174908,3.1427261211,0.4956143111,0.4167010575,,cuda,bfloat16,240 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.5061680935,0.0,1.5534665360000002,34c503cb4346b380,False,0.7.0,0.5061680935,0.6061735307,0.0428303072,0.0362665583,,cuda,bfloat16,120 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.4574194964,0.0,2.115835176,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,0.4574194964,0.556447549,0.0341011005,0.0281751907,,cuda,bfloat16,120 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.5294317223,0.0,1.539316652,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,0.5294317223,0.6326216104,0.0378308199,0.0321248654,,cuda,bfloat16,120 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,0.573131006,0.0,0.8917097700000001,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,0.573131006,0.7272945434,0.1357350046,0.106932535,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.0208059246,0.0,0.8820109930000001,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.0208059246,1.2655265893,0.5606896855,0.4643713196,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,0.4389128912,0.0,0.893701748,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,0.4389128912,0.5638378752000001,0.0876754681,0.0684544774,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,0.971072301,0.0,0.8944492180000001,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,0.971072301,1.2409440197,0.0566988389,0.0445199614,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.4216993095,0.0,0.8854791940000001,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.4216993095,0.5357283349,0.0937614741,0.0739331273,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,0.9164572277,0.0,0.952127039,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,0.9164572277,1.150459162,0.0793944309,0.0620146905,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.137929015,0.0,2.122735439,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.137929015,1.3914155571,0.0730120171,0.0597259069,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.7729483605,0.0,0.810258629,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.7729483605,0.9921791164,0.0511789478,0.0398626935,,cuda,bfloat16,120 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,0.9613116039,0.0,0.958938539,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,0.9613116039,1.2261966297,0.0599824842,0.0467287195,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.0322306624,0.0,11.49569944,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,1.0322306624,1.2688834676,0.1742722556,0.1418629323,,cuda,bfloat16,15790 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,2.0865003553,0.0,0.737539076,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,2.0865003553,2.4178143615,0.263652347,0.1852146109,,cuda,bfloat16,3158 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.1010925554,0.0,2.535701298,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.1010925554,2.4748929287,0.1579625078,0.1268154753,,cuda,bfloat16,15790 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,0.9750458566,0.0,0.7889856270000001,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,0.9750458566,1.1514968036,0.0873474585,0.0735763953,,cuda,bfloat16,510 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.3584690914,0.0,0.398507047,a9ebe0fd05a285b6,False,0.7.0,1.3584690914,1.6365070781000002,0.0940793492,0.0799691906,,cuda,bfloat16,102 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.4283013139,0.0,0.657251684,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.4283013139,1.7479484715,0.0628811317,0.0528246684,,cuda,bfloat16,510 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,4.4904404116,0.0,0.907204166,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,4.4904404116,5.4995170613,0.0893563021,0.0750783838,,cuda,bfloat16,60 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,5.8417533276,0.0,0.901937345,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,5.8417533276,6.8925263969,0.0832975223,0.0689005701,,cuda,bfloat16,1020 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,2.3654952138,0.0,0.90162255,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,2.3654952138,2.9552801855,0.1553945123,0.1238446163,,cuda,bfloat16,60 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,3.6544020032,0.0,0.91876078,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,3.6544020032,4.4204306869,0.1074347071,0.0870314598,,cuda,bfloat16,1020 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.5962858414000001,0.0,0.643410769,e60f8e1e38f9acca,False,0.7.0,0.5962858414000001,0.7294646076,0.0189676567,0.015482776,,cuda,bfloat16,1980 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,0.6752116267,0.0,1.804798381,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,0.6752116267,0.8579267331,0.003208007,0.0025240351,,cuda,bfloat16,10000 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.550892445,0.0,1.29608468,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.550892445,0.6860304896,0.6949587405000001,0.5634020932,,cuda,bfloat16,1180 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6366963845,0.0,0.657455533,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.6366963845,0.7733116574000001,0.4394375533,0.3762527696,,cuda,bfloat16,1180 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.6968021756,0.0,0.692476312,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.6968021756,0.8888399515000001,0.0947973169,0.075323756,,cuda,bfloat16,3068 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5561584192,0.0,0.970602409,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.5561584192,0.7195191066000001,0.5337376775,0.4125280894,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,0.5868402215,0.0,0.851113914,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,0.5868402215,0.7622844235,0.214606831,0.1652841678,,cuda,bfloat16,128 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.4178230361,0.0,2.005048412,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.4178230361,0.4805248693,0.3021136379,0.2625552838,,cuda,bfloat16,420 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.0749683503,0.0,0.66141865,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.0749683503,1.3722903668,0.2784405042,0.2254046561,,cuda,bfloat16,231 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.3668484878,0.0,0.928959204,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.3668484878,0.4542878163,0.2519024358,0.234099159,,cuda,bfloat16,420 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.5333420067,0.0,7.163191594,e200b7c6bc525a8d,False,0.7.0,0.5333420067,0.5903298173,1.5299117744,1.3753457151,,cuda,bfloat16,1340 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7086991568000001,0.0,0.646101402,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.7086991568000001,0.9069594704,0.7228399217,0.5631888802,,cuda,bfloat16,1340 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.5612428382,0.0,3.066107413,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.5612428382,0.6672184767,2.6893893838,2.2656435299,,cuda,bfloat16,1340 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,0.7292764901000001,0.0,29.235217538,0d8bfe3780a2c494,False,0.7.0,0.7292764901000001,0.8851788247,0.7110159993,0.5619946767,,cuda,bfloat16,30490 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0000578921,0.0,4.227121649,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0000578921,1.1852216988,0.4455042779,0.3566383823,,cuda,bfloat16,29364 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9165191908,0.0,5.727823647,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9165191908,1.1647431618,0.4334180355,0.3409590155,,cuda,bfloat16,30490 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.9171920666,0.0,1.187747801,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,0.9171920666,1.0781317629,0.09096132,0.077263494,,cuda,bfloat16,110 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.7673985057,0.0,1.983802673,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.7673985057,0.9285112769,0.0454557415,0.0375513457,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,0.9004430830000001,0.0,2.076324909,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,0.9004430830000001,1.0977005202,0.0744532838,0.0608284875,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,1.2430012316,0.0,2.9116127240000003,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,1.2430012316,1.4783946982,0.3266223073,0.2713077355,,cuda,bfloat16,1260 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,2.2790272339,0.0,1.735903168,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,2.2790272339,2.6712489552000003,0.2425440878,0.2027229088,,cuda,bfloat16,1380 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,1.025913162,0.0,6.368275619,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,1.025913162,1.1699231408,0.4300963342,0.3706331476,,cuda,bfloat16,1180 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.6890372912,0.0,1.855434004,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.6890372912,0.8659689945,0.3649469204,0.2874369433,,cuda,bfloat16,6502 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.0507521562,0.0,0.491051502,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.0507521562,1.3016096527,0.0613666862,0.0495487283,,cuda,bfloat16,35 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.4281796145,0.0,0.48565272,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.4281796145,1.7219242334,0.0569869973,0.047050427,,cuda,bfloat16,35 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.1471494654,0.0,2.646683124,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.1471494654,1.3870630122,0.3783308864,0.3139840107,,cuda,bfloat16,4116 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.5215966312,0.0,0.8747395630000001,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.5215966312,1.8466635227,0.2846268117,0.2336631822,,cuda,bfloat16,3942 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.5246207313,0.0,3.933845484,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,0.5246207313,0.6371181918000001,0.2176495418,0.178806336,,cuda,bfloat16,11150 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.4871499621,0.0,1.484309552,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.4871499621,0.6451761650000001,0.1760291811,0.1317076013,,cuda,bfloat16,8920 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6349957556,0.0,0.652727954,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6349957556,0.8068081935,0.2532424137,0.1990286403,,cuda,bfloat16,1370 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,0.9401913951,0.0,0.364341908,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,0.9401913951,1.2719881759,0.2132549584,0.1573930974,,cuda,bfloat16,137 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,0.8094202444,0.0,1.421768477,61e547dc95d83f5d,False,0.7.0,0.8094202444,0.9765226278,1.2911253296,1.1300785408,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,0.8156760185,0.0,0.8711168720000001,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,0.8156760185,1.0720382243,1.3260020718,1.0189950233,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.0919688778,0.0,0.6498258640000001,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.0919688778,1.3886570934,0.2842696743,0.2228595882,,cuda,bfloat16,44 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,0.89902861,0.0,2.04766731,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,0.89902861,1.1161574722,0.3758005321,0.3020104526,,cuda,bfloat16,80 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,8.1573948756,0.0,0.970723595,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,8.1573948756,10.4547608004,0.0245629952,0.0190395107,,cuda,bfloat16,240 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.1221392593,0.0,0.980761858,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.1221392593,2.5913882505,0.4166112363,0.3374595917,,cuda,bfloat16,240 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,3.4351717559,0.0,0.46540572,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,3.4351717559,4.3362420429,0.0386007642,0.0308278174,,cuda,bfloat16,48 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,4.1483138966,0.0,0.469694134,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,4.1483138966,5.1432817198,0.533506915,0.4123778016,,cuda,bfloat16,48 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.5311824645,0.0,1.02403015,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,3.5311824645,4.2680470788,0.4370788723,0.3616969038,,cuda,bfloat16,2140 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,17.4887255246,0.0,0.5164612150000001,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,17.4887255246,20.0769214614,0.1935101479,0.1670758111,,cuda,bfloat16,1070 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.5162423149,0.0,0.6428216130000001,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.5162423149,1.8462616555,0.025038723,0.0218589731,,cuda,bfloat16,310 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,1.764175518,0.0,0.647538952,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,1.764175518,2.2129312479,0.0322679118,0.0277102453,,cuda,bfloat16,310 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,4.1076459792,0.0,0.654107224,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,4.1076459792,5.0426493832,0.0879293952,0.0656167649,,cuda,bfloat16,310 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,0.7740159174,0.0,0.7349396460000001,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,0.7740159174,0.9670980075,0.1172761619,0.0950021434,,cuda,bfloat16,2936 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.7544343248,0.0,0.6173023910000001,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,2.7544343248,3.3725385277,0.0897831822,0.0727688426,,cuda,bfloat16,1719 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.3452468722,0.0,0.6436036150000001,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.3452468722,1.6264414789,0.0130603154,0.0108645301,,cuda,bfloat16,2370 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,3.1644023349,0.0,0.393471059,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,3.1644023349,3.9050210198,0.1171618253,0.0889419278,,cuda,bfloat16,356 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,1.3649829587,0.0,3.807105844,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,1.3649829587,1.4150881085,0.209491349,0.2108337564,2.0.1,,,280 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.4528881358,0.0,3.194850054,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.4528881358,1.493070532,0.3456173895,0.3621092269,2.0.1,,,280 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,2.4221862813,0.0,3.93487976,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,2.4221862813,1.7823323561,0.3517438181,0.5136644933,2.0.1,,,280 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 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{'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,2.0191661844,0.0,4.933765776,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,2.0191661844,1.1722532487,0.130171527,0.210202567,2.0.1,,,3230 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,2.2311998044,0.0,2.228817148,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,2.2311998044,1.7668414689,0.2006916501,0.2363624963,2.0.1,,,300 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,4.0939855017,0.0,2.246870346,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,4.0939855017,3.2462087048,0.707449168,0.8946267050000001,2.0.1,,,300 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0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,2.4805205301,0.0,1.629649449,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,2.4805205301,2.7528132313,0.2455491483,0.2175193024,2.0.1,,,110 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,3.4025952491,0.0,0.185158289,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,3.4025952491,3.965045322,0.1959836841,0.1683589627,2.0.1,,,20 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,2.7046737562,0.0,2.072244545,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,2.7046737562,3.063129907,0.2018542446,0.1777795871,2.0.1,,,160 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0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.1696411255,0.0,9.487032912,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.1696411255,1.4020532381,0.3820689023,0.3202051989,2.0.0,,,4116 -Moirai-2.0,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 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{'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.6474289575,0.0,4.170998509,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,1.6474289575,1.1186074012,0.5169750445,0.811345873,2.0.1,,,560 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.7763740551,0.0,1.800821581,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,3.7763740551,4.1680850656,0.5534411848,0.5547015104,2.0.1,,,240 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1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,1.6091505549,0.0,1.62819934,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,1.6091505549,2.0733355971,0.1462993909,0.1142494542,2.0.1,,,120 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,3.0844576332,0.0,0.091158044,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,3.0844576332,1.3609414277,0.237576263,0.5357212884,2.0.1,,,20 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,2.6413247553,0.0,2.300341416,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,2.6413247553,3.1089998641,0.1561551619,0.1331050238,2.0.1,,,160 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,3.4990135369,0.0,1.43542029,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,3.4990135369,4.4343715733,0.266211768,0.2106942527,2.0.1,,,120 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.0789778405,0.0,2.048178636,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,2.0789778405,2.6319098716,0.1442763271,0.1143459151,2.0.1,,,160 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,2.6356836377,0.0,8.201983167,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,2.6356836377,1.8830413748,0.3056042403,0.4079240646,2.0.1,,,15790 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,2.0578284127,0.0,1.10296927,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,2.0578284127,1.9974006051,0.1232989542,0.1701131599,2.0.1,,,3158 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.4938289104,0.0,6.31823167,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.4938289104,2.5171133578,0.1528069191,0.1608274596,2.0.1,,,15790 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,2.7303837473,0.0,2.27175104,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,2.7303837473,1.8618151915,0.1561206006,0.2372471038,2.0.1,,,510 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 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'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,6.4047596955,0.0,4.164490944,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,6.4047596955,7.1693509539,0.0864161201,0.0816199937,2.0.1,,,1020 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,3.675773916,0.0,1.079948611,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,3.675773916,4.3666041366,0.1646972333,0.1537726616,2.0.1,,,60 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,4.251884602,0.0,4.713215858,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,4.251884602,4.9115310592,0.112650905,0.0963745296,2.0.1,,,1020 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.6701753186,0.0,2.845799941,e60f8e1e38f9acca,False,0.7.0,0.6701753186,0.7430842013000001,0.0185624258,0.0176762713,2.0.1,,,1980 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,2.1461477983,0.0,1.013904252,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,2.1461477983,1.9945193434,0.0087068714,0.0087083111,2.0.1,,,10000 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,1.5929687017,0.0,2.40696877,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,1.5929687017,1.0417563414,1.0676994622,1.6764214744,2.0.1,,,1180 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,1.3859393726,0.0,2.227905162,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,1.3859393726,1.1617080217,0.7169096172,0.9260072924,2.0.1,,,1180 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,1.0208467827,0.0,1.888925297,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,1.0208467827,1.10504708,0.117495615,0.1042062258,2.0.1,,,3068 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,1.3250699981,0.0,1.927770944,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,1.3250699981,0.9746856833,0.7243229402,0.9837276521,2.0.1,,,160 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,1.0492127258,0.0,1.563028813,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,1.0492127258,1.0436412698,0.2933695345,0.2969374559,2.0.1,,,128 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.7693201112,0.0,5.354307458,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.7693201112,0.52703557,0.340848519,3.6828586054,2.0.1,,,420 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,2.1502001657,0.0,2.095606295,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,2.1502001657,1.6994317303000002,0.3843897356,0.6992484433,2.0.1,,,231 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.5788947352,0.0,4.296109526,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.5788947352,0.5374935394,0.328573375,1.6601789319,2.0.1,,,420 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.7544738282,0.0,3.085798529,e200b7c6bc525a8d,False,0.7.0,0.7544738282,0.7815687018,2.0376436353,2.6760920983,2.0.1,,,1340 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,1.1381260567,0.0,2.8824224,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,1.1381260567,1.0306171345,0.8071428537,0.9265198159,2.0.1,,,1340 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.7638793006,0.0,3.104888948,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.7638793006,0.8375670849,2.2917796373,2.5790907336,2.0.1,,,1340 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,1.9603909963,0.0,4.627232796,0d8bfe3780a2c494,False,0.7.0,1.9603909963,1.3575007837,1.0240883827,1.352981474,2.0.1,,,30490 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.1923633059,0.0,1.262409723,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.1923633059,1.2671440715,0.4776364863,0.4471596243,2.0.1,,,29364 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,1.3557578931,0.0,2.003347142,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,1.3557578931,1.3382424884,0.5041812062000001,0.5198944018,2.0.1,,,30490 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,2.3796009992,0.0,1.831358357,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,2.3796009992,2.6291046656,0.2325648576,0.2075379042,2.0.1,,,110 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,3.209615645,0.0,0.187320606,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,3.209615645,3.7072504144,0.1831386365,0.158759622,2.0.1,,,20 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,2.5749628946,0.0,2.219482583,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,2.5749628946,2.9066491955,0.1911468029,0.1691034077,2.0.1,,,160 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,33.9212721313,0.0,2.623423303,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,33.9212721313,32.0340548113,0.5721419543,1.565727146,2.0.1,,,1260 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,10.5809680586,0.0,2.390281371,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,10.5809680586,8.1555516024,0.4976614714,0.8881015738,2.0.1,,,1380 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,12.0595440026,0.0,2.812905424,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,12.0595440026,3.1480546918,0.6784450889,2.8198686088,2.0.1,,,1180 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,1.6150739536,0.0,3.570183881,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,1.6150739536,1.3993248163,0.612521477,0.7194392994000001,2.0.1,,,6502 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,2.9129738594,0.0,0.5702810650000001,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,2.9129738594,2.4354371077,0.1082820654,0.1384185633,2.0.1,,,35 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.4844422646,0.0,0.492512589,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.4844422646,1.7311823321,0.058363314,0.0498648091,2.0.1,,,35 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.5460015545,0.0,1.041383701,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.5460015545,1.7485285579,0.4717368782,0.4099413728,2.0.1,,,4116 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.9282179039,0.0,0.724048134,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.9282179039,1.9154827568,0.311866194,0.3323396817,2.0.1,,,3942 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,2.7620723724,0.0,6.364531917,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,2.7620723724,1.6195142378,0.5480500698,0.93885619,2.0.1,,,11150 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.8987958652,0.0,4.514644747,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.8987958652,0.7960291356,0.2192445789,0.2508975252,2.0.1,,,8920 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,1.4067834918,0.0,2.366437612,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,1.4067834918,0.9666968847,0.3013429433,0.4319792148,2.0.1,,,1370 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.4228493197,0.0,0.355450403,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,1.4228493197,1.9187253475,0.326290369,0.241539109,2.0.1,,,137 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,2.2779930243,0.0,0.148046135,61e547dc95d83f5d,False,0.7.0,2.2779930243,1.989464318,1.0179969072,1.6964307303,2.0.1,,,20 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,2.1807435542,0.0,0.093606459,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,2.1807435542,2.2682071361,1.1464484423,1.3916210721,2.0.1,,,20 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.8738938294,0.0,0.6999264470000001,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.8738938294,2.1090746157,0.4314649024,0.3990393174,2.0.1,,,44 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,2.4249545583,0.0,1.375176707,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,2.4249545583,1.681575288,0.5250781342,0.8360828268,2.0.1,,,80 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,23.7425594527,0.0,2.850768888,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,23.7425594527,25.4400086758,0.0579707756,0.0540829702,2.0.1,,,240 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.6919734344,0.0,3.615446347,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.6919734344,2.9050530888,0.453881491,0.6807093543,2.0.1,,,240 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,7.7039519752,0.0,0.787945958,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,7.7039519752,8.7736590065,0.0820604023,0.0708838512,2.0.1,,,48 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.1795349212,0.0,0.949653867,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.1795349212,5.8035952813,0.4544002153,0.4524501242,2.0.1,,,48 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,5.1718851312,0.0,3.129911596,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,5.1718851312,5.9561884523,0.560081014,0.5157896779,2.0.1,,,2140 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,24.6697283453,0.0,1.329679847,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,24.6697283453,26.0772211706,0.2501822181,0.2340614394,2.0.1,,,1070 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.8701116849,0.0,2.388205532,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.8701116849,2.1549055801,0.0367178954,0.032661543,2.0.1,,,310 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,2.5675143796,0.0,2.013581699,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,2.5675143796,2.9276892853,0.0568597171,0.0509220091,2.0.1,,,310 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,6.5846226659,0.0,1.897970893,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,6.5846226659,7.3594854558,0.1702565216,0.1514273794,2.0.1,,,310 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,2.0341238516,0.0,0.6757417280000001,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,2.0341238516,1.5240930953,0.1967352033,0.3075011099,2.0.1,,,2936 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,3.1550152472,0.0,2.246337684,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,3.1550152472,3.6978220012,0.0984961833,0.0832284265,2.0.1,,,1719 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.8297624985,0.0,3.002757054,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.8297624985,2.2537764593,0.0171300128,0.0143077928,2.0.1,,,2370 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,3.2013302671,0.0,0.626435843,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,3.2013302671,3.8281690603,0.1106580384,0.0866853455,2.0.1,,,356 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.7624529909000001,0.0,3.341111763,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.7624529909000001,0.9168897854,0.1473227948,0.1224205307,2.0.1,,,280 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.3728451389,0.0,3.040735482,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.3728451389,1.4915469632,0.3566862594,0.3642035745,2.0.1,,,280 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,1.2068899431,0.0,4.008998366,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,1.2068899431,1.3227159047,0.286422462,0.2597090183,2.0.1,,,280 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.5092678823,0.0,0.980087587,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.5092678823,2.6201185499,0.3963210046,0.4614224698,2.0.1,,,70 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,1.0461703776,0.0,3.27932411,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,1.0461703776,1.1753801207,0.0445690587,0.0397058571,2.0.1,,,3230 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,1.5008790861,0.0,4.312190361,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,1.5008790861,1.3516779911,0.1172784954,0.1307515175,2.0.1,,,3230 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.7515879948,0.0,4.627586663,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.7515879948,0.8255932621000001,0.0883255631,0.081199984,2.0.1,,,3230 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,1.262653406,0.0,1.980546653,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,1.262653406,1.3500254954,0.1419847511,0.1367572058,2.0.1,,,300 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,1.3040659305,0.0,2.415494719,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,1.3040659305,1.2398526574,0.2611668751,0.2731296131,2.0.1,,,300 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.5602190946,0.0,2.815158399,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.5602190946,0.6992652752,0.3343059897,0.2672484294,2.0.1,,,1560 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.8375139431,0.0,0.620849351,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.8375139431,0.6288121204,0.2122471854,0.2910650923,2.0.1,,,312 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.8947401082,0.0,0.6046954560000001,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.8947401082,1.0994521146,0.1130525246,0.0905870679,2.0.1,,,178 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.8851906828,0.0,1.697552388,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.8851906828,1.0658712657,2.2812914532,2.0969368333,2.0.1,,,140 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.9226397442,0.0,2.251047401,9cb515b57514a9ab,False,0.7.0,0.9226397442,1.0666676717,2.2837712012,2.2877704895,2.0.1,,,140 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1062,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1062,0.9105473153,0.0,4.250961928,44381d6f431f8c90,False,0.7.0,0.9105473153,0.9949683457,0.8355847068000001,0.7418110944,2.0.1,,,420 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1209,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,1.26373922,0.0,4.216371112,1466ee197c499055,False,0.7.0,1.26373922,1.1827230135,0.4784097772,0.5015055777,2.0.1,,,1060 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.7453858177,0.0,4.525989664,5d9eb3c2d9389376,False,0.7.0,0.7453858177,0.3736491907,0.195260353,0.3809038981,2.0.1,,,980 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,2.0369976474,0.0,4.121118639,034f57f6576437cc,False,0.7.0,2.0369976474,1.8986209303,0.4654206108,0.5006062673,2.0.1,,,460 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,1.5394068156,0.0,4.933665646,de65600e18e27fe8,False,0.7.0,1.5394068156,0.8299194032,0.5673586508,1.0473420209,2.0.1,,,700 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1487,0.8422519568,0.0,5.322197063,17003e37fda85cdd,False,0.7.0,0.8422519568,0.7188988334,0.2823812783,0.3287160259,2.0.1,,,1080 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1631,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1631,0.8513712543,0.0,4.979538161,f5255f15ed8188ab,False,0.7.0,0.8513712543,0.9935726652,0.4303123065,0.3678343488,2.0.1,,,800 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1676,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1676,0.8503822276,0.0,4.766137899,20768bc9d5e316c5,False,0.7.0,0.8503822276,0.952905272,0.4490416802,0.3899388202,2.0.1,,,2000 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,1.4642665486,0.0,4.686558257,ca3cf5b18a145f72,False,0.7.0,1.4642665486,0.8339307546,0.255325092,0.3053456375,2.0.1,,,1040 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.8427719263000001,0.0,4.804466949,3d8d0f68506b1995,False,0.7.0,0.8427719263000001,0.9041727794,0.5204730918,0.490065287,2.0.1,,,1500 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_2187,1.6696910974,0.0,5.038808816,c3fe1a491401b248,False,0.7.0,1.6696910974,1.3439772563,0.465180005,0.5699897289,2.0.1,,,2000 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,6.0221504695,0.0,4.392174306,3dfa571029207f1f,False,0.7.0,6.0221504695,1.2487633378,0.6725665377000001,1.2032068551,2.0.1,,,1500 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,1.2751647052,0.0,4.433855577,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,1.2751647052,1.1235570145,0.9458725577,0.9678549923,2.0.1,,,1040 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,2.4909982911,0.0,4.306524517,66ce5fbc5ad575a2,False,0.7.0,2.4909982911,0.6290173275000001,0.2919496069,0.9858607218,2.0.1,,,1340 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.6474289575,0.0,3.975211827,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,1.6474289575,1.1186074012,0.5169750445,0.811345873,2.0.1,,,560 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.7763740551,0.0,2.253494462,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,3.7763740551,4.1680850656,0.5534411848,0.5547015104,2.0.1,,,240 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.7806910892000001,0.0,1.7233786800000002,34c503cb4346b380,False,0.7.0,0.7806910892000001,0.9314587074,0.067677392,0.0566124331,2.0.1,,,120 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,1.0561195152,0.0,1.938421327,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,1.0561195152,1.1014887222,0.0792450108,0.0798215745,2.0.1,,,120 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,1.0103240484,0.0,1.643649582,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,1.0103240484,1.2161814769,0.0870952165,0.0725922166,2.0.1,,,120 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.1502802436,0.0,0.089709034,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,1.1502802436,1.0270532112,0.1840044525,0.2012625857,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.3876764191,0.0,0.090879243,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.3876764191,1.7085955085,0.7489839181,0.5919144005,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,1.2455233831,0.0,0.093767945,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,1.2455233831,0.8501188428,0.1298259975,0.1818024008,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,1.5298484821,0.0,0.093990371,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,1.5298484821,1.7613036184,0.0796461385,0.0691889058,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.5152721396000001,0.0,0.089596553,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.5152721396000001,0.581167898,0.1016348289,0.0908421958,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,1.3382664757,0.0,1.929062194,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,1.3382664757,1.5987746508,0.1245740173,0.1044921679,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.3214751318,0.0,2.549025178,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.3214751318,1.5757631018,0.0818516593,0.0682466944,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.9042858434,0.0,1.374094718,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.9042858434,1.112833491,0.0529377862,0.0427842586,2.0.1,,,120 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.0789778405,0.0,1.951122714,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,2.0789778405,2.6319098716,0.1442763271,0.1143459151,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.6902367853,0.0,8.014557169,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,1.6902367853,1.7590444116,0.2519854262,0.2375760789,2.0.1,,,15790 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,2.0967115946,0.0,1.237723949,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,2.0967115946,2.2823009488,0.1900056936,0.1715121001,2.0.1,,,3158 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.4938289104,0.0,5.881875331,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.4938289104,2.5171133578,0.1528069191,0.1608274596,2.0.1,,,15790 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.7338216714,0.0,2.183747581,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,1.7338216714,1.820047183,0.1460640723,0.1403339153,2.0.1,,,510 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.3301725476,0.0,0.520866952,a9ebe0fd05a285b6,False,0.7.0,1.3301725476,1.5197338218,0.0907197162,0.0855815678,2.0.1,,,102 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.6714139443,0.0,2.329457246,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.6714139443,1.5401800863,0.0709917221,0.0783787891,2.0.1,,,510 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,9.4371027278,0.0,1.079432671,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,9.4371027278,11.870151993,0.1825383855,0.2073879582,2.0.1,,,60 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,9.5793076258,0.0,4.268570683,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,9.5793076258,11.2729488966,0.1316369599,0.119592083,2.0.1,,,1020 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,4.4448478957,0.0,1.178469139,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,4.4448478957,5.7264703884,0.2083851339,0.194192155,2.0.1,,,60 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,5.2213314727,0.0,4.098124336,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,5.2213314727,6.2532543175,0.1422945023,0.1198022215,2.0.1,,,1020 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.7861696279,0.0,2.922357057,e60f8e1e38f9acca,False,0.7.0,0.7861696279,0.9186013653,0.0239340235,0.0212211567,2.0.1,,,1980 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,2.1461477983,0.0,1.000893807,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,2.1461477983,1.9945193434,0.0087068714,0.0087083111,2.0.1,,,10000 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,1.0291569643,0.0,2.816684551,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,1.0291569643,0.9949475154,1.0205006063,1.1222145629,2.0.1,,,1180 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,1.3859393726,0.0,2.226066589,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,1.3859393726,1.1617080217,0.7169096172,0.9260072924,2.0.1,,,1180 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.8075126003,0.0,1.931947289,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.8075126003,1.0188066511,0.0954293236,0.0783920641,2.0.1,,,3068 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.8571822336,0.0,1.841966382,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.8571822336,1.0268297216,0.7622172844,0.6361459769000001,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,1.0492127258,0.0,1.416196559,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,1.0492127258,1.0436412698,0.2933695345,0.2969374559,2.0.1,,,128 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.6729893352,0.0,3.851353962,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.6729893352,0.7300235109000001,0.7879570897,1.7057621919,2.0.1,,,420 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.7668615982,0.0,2.212954661,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.7668615982,1.8965701168,0.4190868366,0.4719762386,2.0.1,,,231 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.6550438031,0.0,3.491359618,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.6550438031,0.7399001552000001,0.7711870382,1.2878361856,2.0.1,,,420 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.7774995242,0.0,3.552766015,e200b7c6bc525a8d,False,0.7.0,0.7774995242,0.8187009928000001,3.3046866596,3.4658735242,2.0.1,,,1340 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.9005495243,0.0,2.81435228,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.9005495243,1.0844353298,0.9081870615,0.75069981,2.0.1,,,1340 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.7740434291,0.0,3.002341458,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.7740434291,0.8221839563000001,3.122066617,3.2580293089,2.0.1,,,1340 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,1.2544668347,0.0,4.828917108,0d8bfe3780a2c494,False,0.7.0,1.2544668347,1.2236286692,0.9158941507,0.8588793502000001,2.0.1,,,30490 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.1398593529,0.0,1.232174927,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.1398593529,1.3266370526,0.5107533932,0.4285745193,2.0.1,,,29364 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,1.3557578931,0.0,2.017565551,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,1.3557578931,1.3382424884,0.5041812062000001,0.5198944018,2.0.1,,,30490 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,1.1997208201,0.0,1.950526799,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,1.1997208201,1.428177457,0.1285183787,0.1088404134,2.0.1,,,110 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,1.0750756438,0.0,0.18898157,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,1.0750756438,1.1988543772,0.0586917939,0.0529491741,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.3160348949,0.0,2.200114127,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,1.3160348949,1.5845048132,0.1077746021,0.0897222269,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,1.2313423811,0.0,2.472600023,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,1.2313423811,1.0323384841,0.3900802583,0.4607365658,2.0.1,,,1260 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.9424894097,0.0,2.38652295,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.9424894097,1.6826194185,0.3300818771,0.4120467256,2.0.1,,,1380 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,1.2243411634,0.0,2.866603317,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,1.2243411634,1.0410587245,0.4487639129,0.5026322375,2.0.1,,,1180 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.9837597907,0.0,3.596593623,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.9837597907,1.1194990361,0.483283326,0.4263793897,2.0.1,,,6502 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.5544219081,0.0,0.528358624,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.5544219081,1.7782872152,0.0827216394,0.0730389024,2.0.1,,,35 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.4844422646,0.0,0.545209501,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.4844422646,1.7311823321,0.058363314,0.0498648091,2.0.1,,,35 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.3749816723,0.0,0.998962432,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.3749816723,1.6150435602000002,0.4345725775,0.3727953997,2.0.1,,,4116 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.9282179039,0.0,0.7413607280000001,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.9282179039,1.9154827568,0.311866194,0.3323396817,2.0.1,,,3942 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.9136725214,0.0,7.323782581,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,0.9136725214,0.7885548119,0.2692451894,0.3139894604,2.0.1,,,11150 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.8987958652,0.0,4.245679649,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.8987958652,0.7960291356,0.2192445789,0.2508975252,2.0.1,,,8920 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.9019637416,0.0,2.512184478,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.9019637416,0.9900696291,0.3093768284,0.2794918566,2.0.1,,,1370 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.4228493197,0.0,0.345574613,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,1.4228493197,1.9187253475,0.326290369,0.241539109,2.0.1,,,137 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,1.1937856846,0.0,0.156112923,61e547dc95d83f5d,False,0.7.0,1.1937856846,1.0500997059,1.311486863,1.4073798197,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,1.2119606616,0.0,0.100857583,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,1.2119606616,1.0619359164,1.2338736704,1.3170887607,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.4013448948,0.0,0.65034532,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.4013448948,1.7337243007,0.3624341339,0.2922307509,2.0.1,,,44 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,1.3840397362,0.0,1.51837345,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,1.3840397362,1.4424742241,0.4562693149,0.460867968,2.0.1,,,80 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,27.0030154455,0.0,2.9943939310000003,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,27.0030154455,30.7671471585,0.0695790831,0.0616683882,2.0.1,,,240 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.5728651106,0.0,3.376844859,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.5728651106,2.8996526561,0.4987584807,0.7590347607,2.0.1,,,240 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,7.7039519752,0.0,0.581385946,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,7.7039519752,8.7736590065,0.0820604023,0.0708838512,2.0.1,,,48 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.1795349212,0.0,0.7883404930000001,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.1795349212,5.8035952813,0.4544002153,0.4524501242,2.0.1,,,48 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,4.5971311302,0.0,3.037979108,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,4.5971311302,5.2400849649,0.5015514418,0.4420318364,2.0.1,,,2140 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,24.6697283453,0.0,1.573106218,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,24.6697283453,26.0772211706,0.2501822181,0.2340614394,2.0.1,,,1070 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,2.6840778381,0.0,2.320112789,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,2.6840778381,3.1370276717,0.0583924714,0.0497079002,2.0.1,,,310 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,3.3237196122,0.0,2.523104623,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,3.3237196122,3.8594112114,0.0723187622,0.0619774434,2.0.1,,,310 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,6.5846226659,0.0,1.972667002,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,6.5846226659,7.3594854558,0.1702565216,0.1514273794,2.0.1,,,310 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,2.0341238516,0.0,0.704313787,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,2.0341238516,1.5240930953,0.1967352033,0.3075011099,2.0.1,,,2936 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,3.1550152472,0.0,2.410642099,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,3.1550152472,3.6978220012,0.0984961833,0.0832284265,2.0.1,,,1719 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.8297624985,0.0,3.358739425,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.8297624985,2.2537764593,0.0171300128,0.0143077928,2.0.1,,,2370 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,3.2013302671,0.0,0.591032764,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,3.2013302671,3.8281690603,0.1106580384,0.0866853455,2.0.1,,,356 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.2707356751,0.0,591.308394604,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.2707356751,1.4122431037,0.3275626761,0.3227852613,2.0.1,,,280 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,1.2717102201,0.0,4904.244242552,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,1.2717102201,1.2518551239,0.2621275507,0.2620350459,2.0.1,,,280 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.4073690783,0.0,121.813284998,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.4073690783,2.6874358146,0.4587044328,0.4495446321,2.0.1,,,70 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8198461462000001,0.0,1117.570205374,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.8198461462000001,0.9983198527,0.0378798334,0.0310410872,2.0.1,,,3230 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,1.0436727136,0.0,708.116609412,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,1.0436727136,0.9579580055,0.1069220781,0.1151931596,2.0.1,,,3230 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.9647884446,0.0,475.398940131,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.9647884446,1.050932514,0.1192791395,0.1131422312,2.0.1,,,300 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,1.1265341106,0.0,3308.933807024,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,1.1265341106,1.1917704339,0.2484246612,0.2346087824,2.0.1,,,300 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.6894973186000001,0.0,906.053197735,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.6894973186000001,0.5582147152,0.1850999221,0.2449234495,2.0.1,,,312 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.7300394505000001,0.0,59.498346012,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.7300394505000001,0.9323052664,0.0957876109,0.0747720206,2.0.1,,,178 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.6336059931,0.0,2581.657258101,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.6336059931,0.7567537453000001,1.3223615305,1.2739406784,2.0.1,,,140 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.7197078839000001,0.0,377.192475263,9cb515b57514a9ab,False,0.7.0,0.7197078839000001,0.8068916121,1.3437154961,1.5128526941,2.0.1,,,140 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1062,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1062,0.9851058144,0.0,622.398566754,44381d6f431f8c90,False,0.7.0,0.9851058144,1.0019575039,0.7826401234,0.7822110511,2.0.1,,,420 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1209,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,2.4692530935,0.0,826.410131006,1466ee197c499055,False,0.7.0,2.4692530935,1.0454166675,0.4339859435,1.0148176093,2.0.1,,,1060 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.2803755249,0.0,687.830853475,5d9eb3c2d9389376,False,0.7.0,0.2803755249,0.2904167694,0.153843496,0.1451941336,2.0.1,,,980 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,3.3900350214,0.0,626.509165054,034f57f6576437cc,False,0.7.0,3.3900350214,1.5513275237,0.3894998971,0.9994018454,2.0.1,,,460 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,0.7391125197,0.0,685.096379452,de65600e18e27fe8,False,0.7.0,0.7391125197,0.6397695821,0.4329732117,0.49773322,2.0.1,,,700 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1487,0.6807093562000001,0.0,722.394241634,17003e37fda85cdd,False,0.7.0,0.6807093562000001,0.6620511075000001,0.2612758556,0.2664583485,2.0.1,,,1080 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,1.1233499934,0.0,8178.632638533,ca3cf5b18a145f72,False,0.7.0,1.1233499934,0.7137233958,0.2153578225,0.2389634823,2.0.1,,,1040 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.5478588809,0.0,8213.223546339,3d8d0f68506b1995,False,0.7.0,0.5478588809,0.5885200818,0.3327476291,0.3109341662,2.0.1,,,1500 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_2187,1.2729717642,0.0,16619.60447995,c3fe1a491401b248,False,0.7.0,1.2729717642,1.18136692,0.4073318877,0.4312238249,2.0.1,,,2000 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,1.2619335645,0.0,813.907301356,3dfa571029207f1f,False,0.7.0,1.2619335645,0.7526380608000001,0.3599062982,0.3030251372,2.0.1,,,1500 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.7771722948,0.0,768.457542738,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,0.7771722948,1.0046773699,0.8714422486000001,0.6585898854000001,2.0.1,,,1040 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,1.1794168073,0.0,815.345085907,66ce5fbc5ad575a2,False,0.7.0,1.1794168073,0.5801758985000001,0.2635364999,0.4436068427,2.0.1,,,1340 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.3348061563,0.0,656.509975032,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,1.3348061563,1.1173343797,0.5013279652,0.6331985559000001,2.0.1,,,560 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.8373720704,0.0,281.839308161,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,3.8373720704,4.3217227901,0.5675356537,0.5427352164,2.0.1,,,240 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.8919673675,0.0,4486.845290944,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,0.8919673675,1.1144887827,0.0833389089,0.0660357719,2.0.1,,,120 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.8465224818,0.0,19848.176065065,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,0.8465224818,1.0577908951,0.0767360015,0.0612238614,2.0.1,,,120 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.2134724304,0.0,1465.778892428,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,1.2134724304,0.9813953164,0.1754423061,0.2109061816,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.1665641061,0.0,1282.873286161,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.1665641061,1.3821017935,0.6023222137,0.4882154408,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,1.1455989836,0.0,1389.970409861,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,1.1455989836,0.7410301647,0.1133474851,0.1676570118,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,1.2844205231,0.0,920.482226084,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,1.2844205231,1.514694987,0.0682523511,0.05738593,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.4870679588,0.0,1153.794469074,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.4870679588,0.5294817721,0.0933501931,0.0862614181,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,1.2548535439,0.0,766.755828996,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,1.2548535439,1.5207401049,0.1129253348,0.0936050684,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.259822515,0.0,4226.398714524,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.259822515,1.610467295,0.0829790251,0.0642267414,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.7617082171,0.0,279.902711693,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.7617082171,0.9720301101,0.0481692294,0.0375336712,2.0.1,,,120 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.0949542269,0.0,346.234637116,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,2.0949542269,2.6623042168,0.1453860532,0.1138242996,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.1970549978,0.0,19137.806969692,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,1.1970549978,1.3400112075,0.1788716882,0.1606265395,2.0.1,,,15790 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,1.942621879,0.0,206.213942732,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,1.942621879,2.1181450497,0.1466952749,0.1265354908,2.0.1,,,3158 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.2196008497,0.0,991.292025278,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.2196008497,2.433980351,0.1436039165,0.1336292959,2.0.1,,,15790 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.1848435874,0.0,1041.452981464,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,1.1848435874,1.2657781225,0.1005134217,0.094900864,2.0.1,,,510 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.1521708088,0.0,55.262591933,a9ebe0fd05a285b6,False,0.7.0,1.1521708088,1.3044406101,0.0746712369,0.0705845865,2.0.1,,,102 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.55928265,0.0,284.20368462,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.55928265,1.6323769125,0.0683781244,0.0648065086,2.0.1,,,510 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,3.7449838346,0.0,443.590980849,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,3.7449838346,4.1492831073,0.0880950077,0.1051946757,2.0.1,,,60 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,5.7428835095,0.0,1531.88394101,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,5.7428835095,6.4760151224,0.0850931924,0.0780002055,2.0.1,,,1020 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,1.9027740715,0.0,339.830400567,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,1.9027740715,2.2117006108,0.1535186178,0.1373877839,2.0.1,,,60 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,3.6148508861,0.0,640.376472624,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,3.6148508861,4.2291679217,0.1102426328,0.0918310561,2.0.1,,,1020 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.5896099351,0.0,370.731844336,e60f8e1e38f9acca,False,0.7.0,0.5896099351,0.6831004748,0.018235926,0.0162937715,2.0.1,,,1980 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,1.4161705928,0.0,484.092505837,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,1.4161705928,1.8121264962,0.0078905979,0.0061269301,2.0.1,,,10000 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.7197387018,0.0,1623.079508759,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.7197387018,0.8130155521,0.8618716657000001,0.8177303567,2.0.1,,,1180 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.7460571909,0.0,305.838406241,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.7460571909,0.9004451123,0.5484556556,0.465201591,2.0.1,,,1180 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.6974795864000001,0.0,304.955501139,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.6974795864000001,0.8766229998,0.0920567866,0.0749195627,2.0.1,,,3068 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5569559255000001,0.0,406.630838224,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.5569559255000001,0.7213815906000001,0.5351516929,0.41312756,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,0.5789001687,0.0,265.527152189,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,0.5789001687,0.7551866274,0.2126255133,0.1630497452,2.0.1,,,128 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.3391730809,0.0,334.639738077,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.3391730809,1.5642224637000002,0.3410053076,0.3084284928,2.0.1,,,231 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.4515903467,0.0,4856.390390097,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.4515903467,0.4663908322,0.3278975237,1.0549343053,2.0.1,,,420 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7298517236000001,0.0,422.357523714,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.7298517236000001,0.9701127541,0.7985714674000001,0.5920639476,2.0.1,,,1340 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.6792689234,0.0,17708.502792506,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.6792689234,0.7681145469,2.1525859416,2.2310513851,2.0.1,,,1340 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0218515241,0.0,1374.809584598,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0218515241,1.1819548335,0.4417713284,0.3701215676,2.0.1,,,29364 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9362638046,0.0,1377.807311117,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9362638046,1.151797309,0.4386759996,0.3617147564,2.0.1,,,30490 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,1.3049170998,0.0,1481.177475357,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,1.3049170998,1.5463300248,0.140745189,0.1181658339,2.0.1,,,110 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.9059171447,0.0,1801.326725561,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.9059171447,1.1044049767,0.0540108977,0.0444124312,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.1416586194,0.0,3876.877459598,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,1.1416586194,1.4215223964,0.0960090132,0.0769991028,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.8587229014,0.0,11111.154965765,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.8587229014,1.761972427,0.302437371,0.3644260201,2.0.1,,,1380 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,2.6902332367,0.0,469.659707589,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,2.6902332367,2.1640102467,0.6020359665,0.9331343204,2.0.1,,,1180 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.7085218117000001,0.0,1636.438172128,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.7085218117000001,0.8717386477,0.3710609339,0.2987534022,2.0.1,,,6502 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.2113521188,0.0,152.253078862,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.2113521188,1.3812243729,0.0628061324,0.0551848097,2.0.1,,,35 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.3984122308,0.0,80.974064822,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.3984122308,1.71276995,0.0573217526,0.0465205009,2.0.1,,,35 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.2482652223,0.0,3480.038220145,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.2482652223,1.4759756392,0.4056582451,0.3425447103,2.0.1,,,4116 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.6455287753,0.0,174.201546265,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.6455287753,1.8249729553,0.2905908525,0.2595910509,2.0.1,,,3942 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.5781148561,0.0,12099.182737344,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,0.5781148561,0.6678317895,0.2277583107,0.1969163908,2.0.1,,,11150 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.5013864497,0.0,585.627439512,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.5013864497,0.6512769978,0.1783457696,0.135127457,2.0.1,,,8920 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6528759965,0.0,419.52374111,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6528759965,0.7950641496,0.2494917773,0.2041438251,2.0.1,,,1370 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.2959542496,0.0,29.938983224,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,1.2959542496,1.7922537528,0.3008096814,0.2181202588,2.0.1,,,137 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,1.4584163166000002,0.0,1452.280802725,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,1.4584163166000002,1.3147978753,1.2681774691,1.1487515083,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.1225466397,0.0,223.223674699,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.1225466397,1.3836855571,0.2860204957,0.2303977966,2.0.1,,,44 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,1.5607085558,0.0,3192.157178467,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,1.5607085558,1.2991890754,0.4116057828,0.5268864008,2.0.1,,,80 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,7.7115645361,0.0,768.6960846,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,7.7115645361,8.8341213691,0.0214682838,0.0188346391,2.0.1,,,240 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.7990662584,0.0,901.763477651,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.7990662584,3.1171908684,0.4527084805,0.6131520742000001,2.0.1,,,240 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,2.2375975817,0.0,94.775343948,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,2.2375975817,2.5352192342,0.0229528998,0.0198408228,2.0.1,,,48 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.7411671194,0.0,91.212828663,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.7411671194,6.252228662,0.4829665609,0.4963902021,2.0.1,,,48 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,5.5816729211,0.0,3179.678684717,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,5.5816729211,6.2345012475,0.5653157011000001,0.5001590872,2.0.1,,,2140 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,14.3311431786,0.0,158.602062052,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,14.3311431786,15.8503479662,0.1562370956,0.138335546,2.0.1,,,1070 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.4864869258,0.0,690.615290623,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.4864869258,1.7231034056,0.0240289312,0.0214320964,2.0.1,,,310 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,1.9078230052,0.0,296.607322825,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,1.9078230052,2.2422219291,0.0338116094,0.0294259535,2.0.1,,,310 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,3.7862940987,0.0,268.117960684,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,3.7862940987,4.453578755,0.0638795553,0.0515666785,2.0.1,,,310 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,1.2166093946,0.0,173.792624478,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,1.2166093946,1.3563890452,0.1773376018,0.1643578174,2.0.1,,,2936 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.6879348969,0.0,271.545519405,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,2.6879348969,3.1762491991,0.081172869,0.0701479592,2.0.1,,,1719 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.3050094069,0.0,308.227983309,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.3050094069,1.5403532831,0.0126706732,0.010866463,2.0.1,,,2370 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,2.552402438,0.0,59.487051402,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,2.552402438,3.0020746256,0.0681912079,0.0552036802,2.0.1,,,356 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.597092731,0.0,23.224015235,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.597092731,0.7138930444,0.1157490913,0.0969683943,,,,280 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 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-Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8625023325000001,0.0,250.299855604,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.8625023325000001,0.9847669395,0.0372882528,0.0326217509,,,,3230 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.7695770803,0.0,249.409578512,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.7695770803,0.9012445092,0.077676107,0.0664487294,,,,3230 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.4438538338,0.0,121.765275519,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.4438538338,0.5133618160000001,0.245247978,0.2118998785,,,,1560 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.5170317067,0.0,25.087226993,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.5170317067,0.6129421994,0.2091502994,0.1764986928,,,,312 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.7908486579,0.0,14.482178761,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.7908486579,0.9146409764,0.0969211906,0.0836038879,,,,178 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'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.2699963407,0.0,107.107984053,e200b7c6bc525a8d,True,0.7.0,0.2699963407,0.3142160547,0.6564920723000001,0.5695530374000001,,,,1340 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.8018621055,0.0,107.986037061,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.8018621055,0.9235145261,0.7455375254000001,0.6469029607,,,,1340 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0814673882,0.0,2290.891352852,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0814673882,1.199580668,0.4508921802,0.3886462021,,,,29364 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9747800888,0.0,2332.306454716,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9747800888,1.1330759513,0.4258472919,0.3622685986,,,,30490 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 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{'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,0.8873768717,0.0,91.825214293,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,0.8873768717,1.0328105291,0.3967622221,0.3372367613,,,,1180 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.7474752761,0.0,494.888195731,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.7474752761,0.8630231098000001,0.3637035079,0.3121784735,,,,6502 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 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{'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.2026659678,0.0,320.868032144,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.2026659678,1.3442522277,0.3645052612,0.3250144355,,,,4116 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6669937254,0.0,105.915848403,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6669937254,0.7866198335,0.2471724987,0.2094179217,,,,1370 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,0.9287843032,0.0,11.704671042,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,0.9287843032,1.1001413936,0.1854887605,0.1567824467,,,,137 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 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0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.6498480124,0.0,169.640670302,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,3.6498480124,4.1215258287,0.4043421954,0.3594274377,,,,2140 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,26.4381110934,0.0,84.210658576,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,26.4381110934,27.7918750277,0.2817648932,0.2660261673,,,,1070 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.8961848647,0.0,25.040507703,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.8961848647,2.1034739353,0.0353930782,0.032429082,,,,310 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'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,0.8422492473000001,0.0,230.839530845,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,0.8422492473000001,0.9842192099,0.1211136207,0.1036346439,,,,2936 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,3.6825226706,0.0,133.395333519,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,3.6825226706,4.0694291919,0.1067606712,0.0955702861,,,,1719 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.6015213365,0.0,180.122422217,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.6015213365,1.7987773288,0.0145865259,0.0129798805,,,,2370 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,4.3603502979,0.0,28.539923844,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,4.3603502979,4.7392839763,0.1553527489,0.1403522964,,,,356 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.6023976568,0.0,622.826942601,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.6023976568,0.7625422865,0.122192445,0.0966499793,,,,280 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.2302029516,0.0,192.758975266,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.2302029516,1.4991782178,0.3959747152,0.3179643477,,,,280 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,0.93321436,0.0,574.371845285,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,0.93321436,1.1773747941,0.2553246886,0.2034494101,,,,280 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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-TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,0.7127008195,0.0,2251.225120419,3dfa571029207f1f,False,0.7.0,0.7127008195,0.3931546055,0.1742876602,0.1553438735,,,,1500 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.3305066441,0.0,1767.957107851,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,0.3305066441,0.4305322873,0.3036044294,0.2349216897,,,,1040 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,0.3295303206,0.0,3601.941862429,66ce5fbc5ad575a2,False,0.7.0,0.3295303206,0.3608040826,0.1705900793,0.1546550252,,,,1340 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,0.7960581525,0.0,1484.477017497,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,0.7960581525,0.8758112548,0.415064609,0.368648075,,,,560 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,2.3819418015,0.0,52.985427624,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,2.3819418015,2.8110944773,0.3879963517,0.3232828815,,,,240 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.4837394321,0.0,277.003432296,34c503cb4346b380,False,0.7.0,0.4837394321,0.6094490505,0.0426369185,0.0335205629,,,,120 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.4419444303,0.0,296.701026967,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,0.4419444303,0.5377189816,0.0333449995,0.0272967255,,,,120 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.5116608489,0.0,294.146155078,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,0.5116608489,0.6350493808000001,0.0390591249,0.0321818804,,,,120 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,0.5324134798,0.0,67.483784867,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,0.5324134798,0.6701844387,0.1179565661,0.0932975438,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,0.4402987265,0.0,67.661415406,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,0.4402987265,0.5674762585,0.3069136301,0.2426255873,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,0.3307410445,0.0,67.242104675,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,0.3307410445,0.4181703173,0.0618426707,0.0491162423,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,0.6592724518,0.0,65.401675639,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,0.6592724518,0.8709423510000001,0.0386706958,0.0293296573,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.4270292068,0.0,66.395716168,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.4270292068,0.5339815846,0.092521411,0.0739926826,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,0.9810503129,0.0,304.438810058,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,0.9810503129,1.2627737925,0.0898239311,0.0688811199,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.2076871071,0.0,332.245445011,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.2076871071,1.5551131815,0.0795933543,0.0615615188,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.9028337317,0.0,30.323501934,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.9028337317,1.2288572299,0.05342761,0.0407906509,,,,120 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,1.2284207021,0.0,270.147918178,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,1.2284207021,1.6253611467,0.0684465686,0.0531508617,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,0.9697812299,0.0,7345.838813181,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,0.9697812299,1.1942878338,0.1485749632,0.1204039869,,,,15790 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,1.9335734731,0.0,517.691344205,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,1.9335734731,2.1757603336,0.1158652566,0.0943255732,,,,3158 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.1226627361,0.0,3164.105345998,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.1226627361,2.5267645799,0.1259902738,0.1011036417,,,,15790 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.2251845822,0.0,242.410962423,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,1.2251845822,1.6727335501,0.0773345503,0.0603391606,,,,510 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.2438493019,0.0,22.886077933,a9ebe0fd05a285b6,False,0.7.0,1.2438493019,1.4261630874,0.0822258855,0.0718016091,,,,102 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.9116392061,0.0,112.386299644,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.9116392061,2.436781004,0.070972002,0.0575076503,,,,510 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,3.872866885,0.0,24.271172449,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,3.872866885,4.6737821611,0.0853241075,0.0743757483,,,,60 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,6.3986770227,0.0,289.177228128,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,6.3986770227,7.7467550529,0.0845430854,0.0703198143,,,,1020 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,2.2915507616,0.0,22.044858268,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,2.2915507616,2.9044098381000003,0.1495637866,0.1232875729,,,,60 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,4.2401411107,0.0,200.074460561,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,4.2401411107,5.2932799619,0.1155847,0.0926080385,,,,1020 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.6741322757,0.0,306.49392464,e60f8e1e38f9acca,False,0.7.0,0.6741322757,0.9010948704,0.0235774602,0.0179419087,,,,1980 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,0.7049311249,0.0,3298.342035606,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,0.7049311249,0.9123318673,0.003404404,0.0026219625,,,,10000 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5720159668,0.0,579.919207945,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.5720159668,0.7080055758,0.7258024514,0.5928670205000001,,,,1180 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6369452495,0.0,267.055232427,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.6369452495,0.7740136921,0.4384448647,0.3741749103,,,,1180 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.6961291798,0.0,496.649065989,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.6961291798,0.8808779374,0.0931978375,0.0744330876,,,,3068 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5622795668,0.0,80.142890459,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.5622795668,0.7244514742,0.5375386306000001,0.4170562141,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,0.5814141841,0.0,35.95493711,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,0.5814141841,0.7534416615,0.2122697207,0.163762699,,,,128 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.412525166,0.0,863.943525893,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.412525166,0.516391649,0.2988471952,0.2551716964,,,,420 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.1553103934,0.0,69.238576972,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.1553103934,1.4445769356,0.2843381079,0.2320364869,,,,231 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.4127616053,0.0,774.363291708,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.4127616053,0.5111184304,0.2825195241,0.2343045768,,,,420 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.5550654023,0.0,2650.714077241,e200b7c6bc525a8d,False,0.7.0,0.5550654023,0.6951920674000001,2.9485943079,2.3282104591,,,,1340 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7153283882,0.0,271.993962454,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.7153283882,0.9150751748,0.729861784,0.5680073145,,,,1340 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.5433847052,0.0,2430.690493173,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.5433847052,0.6765431227,2.7372743011000003,2.2207570053,,,,1340 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0016519091,0.0,5159.98158573,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0016519091,1.1871283177,0.4364556372,0.3466619129,,,,29364 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9281611829,0.0,8498.926744264,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9281611829,1.1604987437,0.4357982576,0.3436698517,,,,30490 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.8344528413000001,0.0,237.059457211,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,0.8344528413000001,1.0338246822,0.0878337689,0.0702222225,,,,110 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.5148198578000001,0.0,59.271923663,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.5148198578000001,0.6406314316,0.0314071138,0.0252054415,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,0.6716514716,0.0,337.373854587,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,0.6716514716,0.8553343104000001,0.0562544549,0.0440642892,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,1.2504740912,0.0,2379.030323521,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,1.2504740912,2.1719934434,0.2824990153,0.2325884637,,,,1260 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.3205339155,0.0,820.337277951,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.3205339155,1.4385006498,0.2258856788,0.1873583276,,,,1380 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,0.7111485095000001,0.0,2540.255711945,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,0.7111485095000001,0.8423602104,0.3484145552,0.289831124,,,,1180 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.6930359174,0.0,1939.457551525,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.6930359174,0.8689264082,0.3642114922,0.286941911,,,,6502 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.3410638007,0.0,34.902976293,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.3410638007,1.547892006,0.0655876726,0.0585028628,,,,35 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.5240499794,0.0,12.991896232,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.5240499794,1.9886917666,0.0652046457,0.049953361,,,,35 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.220508006,0.0,877.590754188,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.220508006,1.5204800642,0.2151686251,0.1697896851,,,,3942 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.23207865,0.0,14387.535355731,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,0.23207865,0.2944517637,0.0979018956,0.0772288962,,,,11150 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.2538651882,0.0,1488.372172291,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.2538651882,0.3046311863,0.0791731263,0.0659741153,,,,8920 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6146167789,0.0,356.121102074,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6146167789,0.7848225151,0.2466564849,0.1919496514,,,,1370 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,0.8695612766,0.0,26.700574169,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,0.8695612766,1.0931583831,0.1849420816,0.1459644443,,,,137 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,0.7470578953,0.0,61.940340957,61e547dc95d83f5d,False,0.7.0,0.7470578953,0.9444749979,1.1661535196,0.9712352474,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,0.7005612194,0.0,69.248057882,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,0.7005612194,0.8628512004000001,0.9096449066,0.7960101453,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.1863454763,0.0,36.414025668,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.1863454763,1.5308266811,0.3105711883,0.239766452,,,,44 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,0.9312390864,0.0,186.834506216,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,0.9312390864,1.1751368971,0.3857780203,0.3066820684,,,,80 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,13.0445256974,0.0,233.156534991,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,13.0445256974,16.8706126207,0.0419449611,0.0316628726,,,,240 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.0764757709,0.0,180.724875159,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.0764757709,2.5101268505,0.4174416304,0.3652919167,,,,240 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,2.8719957749,0.0,13.317467767,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,2.8719957749,3.1721656359,0.0386651377,0.0313019374,,,,48 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,4.1427702993,0.0,13.727034601,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,4.1427702993,4.8064190531,0.626670666,0.5181874025000001,,,,48 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.8009751218,0.0,1854.394699517,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,3.8009751218,4.582072345,0.4566554457,0.3768120784,,,,2140 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,16.9124597959,0.0,163.597468951,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,16.9124597959,19.7677867998,0.1957054086,0.16972636,,,,1070 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.5711057336,0.0,106.80668551,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.5711057336,1.8857443126,0.0282917617,0.0243746544,,,,310 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,2.6728862979,0.0,106.271390052,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,2.6728862979,3.7648783035,0.0508262731,0.039451329,,,,310 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,4.1801774688,0.0,55.193754933,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,4.1801774688,5.0551837428,0.0673417844,0.0536317719,,,,310 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,0.6618592710000001,0.0,625.895905024,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,0.6618592710000001,0.8317842871000001,0.0943299681,0.0751515146,,,,2936 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.7200799174,0.0,267.598193471,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,2.7200799174,3.2702702323,0.0868360951,0.0717195922,,,,1719 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.1492708484,0.0,357.449659468,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.1492708484,1.3478888107,0.0108183488,0.0093362704,,,,2370 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,2.7953196676000003,0.0,57.327634924,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,2.7953196676000003,3.3270326033,0.0676485132,0.0601786476,,,,356 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.5771622748,0.0,64.786757655,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.5771622748,0.7295309932,0.1167248718,0.0925313491,2.0.0,,,280 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.1440582667,0.0,3.459230485,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.1440582667,1.3611067371,0.332150948,0.267888696,2.0.0,,,280 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,0.8822637379,0.0,66.847923284,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,0.8822637379,1.1239074995,0.245201607,0.1916135933,2.0.0,,,280 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.2485701754,0.0,0.642457335,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.2485701754,2.6215325512,0.4956519336,0.3998766685,2.0.0,,,70 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.7738014961,0.0,6.011495267,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.7738014961,0.9509504834,0.0359623253,0.0292182088,2.0.0,,,3230 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6206804936,0.0,106.692232849,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.6206804936,0.7539313166,0.0643115029,0.0529133781,2.0.0,,,3230 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.5953126390000001,0.0,202.939028706,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.5953126390000001,0.7344527308000001,0.0792618439,0.0643709018,2.0.0,,,3230 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.7075343346,0.0,1.847663017,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.7075343346,0.8575514804000001,0.0935403809,0.0773717212,2.0.0,,,300 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,0.556059175,0.0,33.107849628,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,0.556059175,0.6693472657,0.13799605,0.1143436056,2.0.0,,,300 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.3966454244,0.0,16.42275307,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.3966454244,0.5037458638,0.2409728497,0.1894354422,2.0.0,,,1560 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.4156030479,0.0,1.66766593,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.4156030479,0.5174781061,0.1730356291,0.1394973218,2.0.0,,,312 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,0.5270142745,0.0,0.70574625,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,0.5270142745,0.6743990368,0.1230011668,0.0962218885,1.0.0,,,20 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.0321659189,0.0,0.70938062,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.0321659189,1.2971032281,0.5786662247000001,0.468452292,1.0.0,,,20 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.9081089751,0.0,1.559683873,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,0.9081089751,1.1241553096,0.0953878213,0.0771150803,1.0.0,,,110 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.7205809869,0.0,2.651049489,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.7205809869,0.9119046182,0.0447395099,0.0353901819,1.0.0,,,20 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,0.8894497071,0.0,2.882867384,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,0.8894497071,1.1380901313,0.0764463827,0.0597007945,1.0.0,,,160 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,0.7872933801,0.0,6.513939162,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,0.7872933801,0.9453718328,0.3807104856,0.3109114114,1.0.0,,,1180 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.6816216488,0.0,3.876236678,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.6816216488,0.8522179843000001,0.3583980985,0.282683528,1.0.0,,,6502 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 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0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.1480800218,0.0,2.550835136,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.1480800218,1.3844809879,0.3783946335,0.3154378947,1.0.0,,,4116 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 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'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,0.9000403927,0.0,0.706085474,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,0.9000403927,1.1582715132,1.5260583486,1.2498913502,1.0.0,,,20 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.1279764862,0.0,0.505930308,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.1279764862,1.4312317693,0.2942162712,0.2321704936,1.0.0,,,44 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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