model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.061,-0.011,0.135
Chronos-2,TiRex,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.072,0.024,0.128
Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.084,0.024,0.141
Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.044,-0.015,0.106
Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.14,0.075,0.214
Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.123,0.039,0.2
Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.223,0.102,0.33
Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.313,0.185,0.417
Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.547,0.245,0.764
Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.208,0.107,0.287
Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.201,0.393
Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527
Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527
Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.322,0.528
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.065,-0.157,0.011
TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.012,-0.027,0.046
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.024,-0.016,0.062
TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.018,-0.134,0.078
TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.084,0.01,0.153
TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.067,0.011,0.124
TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.173,0.029,0.303
TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.136,0.394
TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.519,0.197,0.751
TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.157,0.099,0.203
TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.153,0.356
TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487
TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487
TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.29,0.494
TiRex,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.078,-0.147,-0.025
TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.012,-0.048,0.026
TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.012,-0.027,0.045
TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.03,-0.14,0.061
TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.073,0.02,0.129
TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.055,0.006,0.109
TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.163,0.042,0.281
TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.26,0.125,0.379
TiRex,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.515,0.198,0.749
TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.146,0.07,0.209
TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.147,0.343
TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482
TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482
TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.281,0.484
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.091,-0.164,-0.025
Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.025,-0.066,0.016
Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.013,-0.047,0.026
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.043,-0.144,0.047
Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,0.001,0.127
Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.043,-0.008,0.116
Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.152,0.031,0.269
Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.25,0.113,0.373
Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.511,0.189,0.746
Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.136,0.078,0.191
Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.237,0.137,0.329
Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468
Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468
Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.278,0.477
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.046,-0.119,0.015
TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.017,-0.085,0.118
TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.029,-0.065,0.123
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.041,-0.049,0.126
TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.1,0.003,0.193
TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.083,-0.022,0.187
TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.187,0.056,0.297
TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.281,0.126,0.401
TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.527,0.21,0.753
TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.171,0.074,0.257
TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.161,0.361
TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.405,0.276,0.506
TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.405,0.276,0.506
TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.407,0.28,0.518
Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.163,-0.272,-0.082
Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.092,-0.181,-0.01
Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.079,-0.147,-0.021
Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.145,-0.001
Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.111,-0.239,-0.003
Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.02,-0.081,0.035
Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.097,0.004,0.19
Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.201,0.063,0.334
Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.484,0.142,0.738
Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.079,-0.03,0.175
Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.187,0.1,0.277
Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.338,0.23,0.436
Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.338,0.23,0.436
Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.341,0.244,0.429
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.141,-0.249,-0.04
Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.071,-0.142,-0.011
Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.058,-0.123,-0.006
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.045,-0.131,0.008
Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.09,-0.231,0.021
Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.019,-0.036,0.075
Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.114,-0.014,0.233
Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.216,0.053,0.355
Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.492,0.147,0.742
Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.097,-0.012,0.174
Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.099,0.303
Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.351,0.227,0.454
Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.351,0.227,0.454
Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.354,0.239,0.452
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.287,-0.493,-0.114
Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.209,-0.435,-0.03
Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.194,-0.391,-0.044
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.18,-0.367,-0.032
Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.23,-0.422,-0.06
Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.107,-0.235,-0.004
Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.129,-0.304,0.014
Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,-0.022,0.273
Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.438,0.038,0.713
Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.019,-0.221,0.144
Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.1,0.028,0.186
Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.267,0.141,0.378
Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.267,0.141,0.378
Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.271,0.171,0.359
AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.455,-0.716,-0.227
AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.65,-0.157
AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.351,-0.61,-0.143
AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.334,-0.595,-0.128
AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.391,-0.67,-0.144
AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.252,-0.502,-0.067
AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.276,-0.551,-0.056
AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.376,0.022
AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.358,-0.097,0.681
AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.153,-0.417,0.05
AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.018,-0.19,0.101
AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,-0.011,0.302
AutoARIMA,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,-0.011,0.302
AutoARIMA,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.175,-0.025,0.321
AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-1.208,-3.239,-0.325
AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.08,-3.015,-0.246
AutoETS,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.06,-2.983,-0.248
AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-1.045,-2.936,-0.233
AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-1.113,-3.044,-0.267
AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.937,-2.814,-0.166
AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.967,-2.881,-0.173
AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.78,-2.483,-0.04
AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.558,-2.133,0.088
AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.776,-2.496,-0.056
AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.62,-2.269,0.042
AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.344,-1.76,0.201
AutoETS,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.344,-1.76,0.201
AutoETS,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.347,-1.747,0.191
Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.263,-0.402,-0.12
Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.186,-0.255,-0.109
Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.172,-0.265,-0.075
Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.157,-0.236,-0.085
Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.207,-0.346,-0.08
Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.086,-0.211,0.029
Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.107,-0.211,0.012
Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.019,-0.168,0.181
Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.132,-0.052,0.294
Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.437,0.053,0.714
Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.117,-0.014,0.233
Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.281,0.162,0.385
Sundial-Base,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.281,0.162,0.385
Sundial-Base,Drift,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.284,0.14,0.401
AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.647,-0.251
AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.553,-0.181
AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.523,-0.172
AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.311,-0.49,-0.159
AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.565,-0.192
AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.23,-0.383,-0.111
AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.254,-0.434,-0.109
AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.111,-0.229,-0.029
AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.017,-0.112,0.159
AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.383,-0.044,0.694
AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.133,-0.304,0.014
AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.186,0.095,0.268
AutoTheta,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.186,0.095,0.268
AutoTheta,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.189,0.096,0.275
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468
Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418
Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379
Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.679,-1.026,-0.381
Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.773,-0.299
Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.54,-0.831,-0.293
Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.365,-0.608,-0.165
Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.432,0.011
Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.256,-0.252,0.638
Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.392,-0.627,-0.194
Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.228,-0.365,-0.105
Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.061
Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468
Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418
Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386
Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379
Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.679,-1.026,-0.381
Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.773,-0.299
Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.54,-0.831,-0.293
Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.365,-0.608,-0.165
Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.432,0.011
Naive,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.256,-0.252,0.638
Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.392,-0.627,-0.194
Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.228,-0.365,-0.105
Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.061
Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.765,-1.118,-0.476
Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.977,-0.407
Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-0.937,-0.391
Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.911,-0.385
Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.687,-1.076,-0.389
Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.518,-0.75,-0.322
Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.547,-0.824,-0.314
Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.371,-0.559,-0.206
Drift,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.212,-0.472,0.024
Drift,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.257,-0.236,0.636
Drift,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.398,-0.669,-0.163
Drift,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.234,-0.379,-0.107
Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.004,-0.065,0.058
Drift,Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.004,-0.065,0.058
Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0