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1 Parent(s): 7a39b64

Update app.py

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  1. app.py +23 -12
app.py CHANGED
@@ -146,16 +146,27 @@ gas_share = st.sidebar.slider(
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  with st.sidebar.expander("More on Energy Mix"):
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  st.markdown("""
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  **Why Gas?**
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- The electric grid in major hubs like Texas is effectively "sold out," with wait times for connection approaching 5 years. To bypass this, AI labs are adopting "Bring Your Own Generation" (BYOG) strategies, primarily using natural gas which can be deployed in months rather than years.
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151
  **What about Solar?**
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- While solar prices have dropped ~88% since 2009, it faces physical limits:
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- * **Land Use:** 2 GW of solar requires a land area roughly the size of Manhattan.
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- * **Uptime:** Solar requires battery backup for 24/7 reliability, adding complexity for off-grid "island" data centers.
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- [Source](https://open.substack.com/pub/semianalysis/p/how-ai-labs-are-solving-the-power)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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  """)
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  st.sidebar.markdown('<div class="spacer"></div>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
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  # 3. Turbine Efficiency
@@ -215,7 +226,6 @@ with c2:
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  """, unsafe_allow_html=True)
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  # 2. Charts
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- st.subheader("US Emissions Trajectory vs. AI Impact")
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  # Updated Data from Our World in Data (Billion tCO2e -> Million tCO2e)
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  years = [2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024]
@@ -232,8 +242,9 @@ fig1 = go.Figure()
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  fig1.add_trace(go.Scatter(
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  x=years, y=emissions_hist,
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  mode='lines+markers',
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- name='Historical CO₂ (Fossil/Industry)',
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- line=dict(color='gray', width=2)
 
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  ))
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  # Target Dot (Changed from line to single marker)
@@ -241,14 +252,14 @@ fig1.add_trace(go.Scatter(
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  x=[2030], y=[target_2030],
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  mode='markers',
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  name='2030 Climate Goal (50% Cut)',
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- marker=dict(color='green', size=12, symbol='circle')
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  ))
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  # AI Impact Stacked Bar
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  fig1.add_trace(go.Bar(
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  x=[2030], y=[bau_2030],
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  name='2030 Baseline Estimate',
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- marker_color='lightgray'
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  ))
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  fig1.add_trace(go.Bar(
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  x=[2030], y=[ai_emissions_mmt],
@@ -261,8 +272,8 @@ fig1.update_layout(
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  height=650,
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  font=dict(size=18),
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  title={
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- 'text': "Can we hit the 50% reduction target?",
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- 'font': {'size': 24},
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  'x': 0.5,
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  'xanchor': 'center'
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  },
 
146
  with st.sidebar.expander("More on Energy Mix"):
147
  st.markdown("""
148
  **Why Gas?**
149
+ The electric grid in major hubs like Texas is effectively "sold out," with wait times for connection approaching 5 years. To bypass this, AI labs are adopting "Bring Your Own Generation" (BYOG) strategies, primarily using natural gas which can be deployed in months rather than years. In fact, current projections suggest that **nearly a third of all new data center development will deploy behind-the-meter (BTM) gas generation** to circumvent these bottlenecks.<sup>1,2</sup>
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+ * **Grid Dominance:** Natural gas is the backbone of the U.S. power system, accounting for approximately **43% of total utility-scale electricity generation** in 2023.<sup>3,4</sup>
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+ * **The Flexibility Wildcard:** "Demand response" (or data center flexibility) could theoretically pull gigawatts "out of thin air" by matching AI training jobs to times when the grid has spare capacity.<sup>5</sup> However, many experts remain skeptical of the true magnitude of this solution, as large-scale implementation faces significant technical hurdles and pushback from major grid operators like PJM.<sup>5,6</sup>
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+
154
  **What about Solar?**
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+ While solar prices have dropped ~88% since 2009, it faces physical limits:<sup>5</sup>
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+ * **Land Use:** 2 GW of solar requires a land area roughly the size of Manhattan (approx. 60 km²).<sup>5</sup>
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+ * **Uptime:** Solar requires massive battery storage for 24/7 reliability, adding complexity for off-grid "island" data centers that cannot draw on spare grid capacity at night.<sup>5</sup>
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+ ---
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+ *Sources:*
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+ 1. [Latitude Media (Jan 2026)](https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/what-the-michigan-stargate-site-says-about-todays-ai-market)
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+ 2. [JLL 2026 Global Data Center Outlook](https://www.jll.com/en-us/insights/market-outlook/data-center-outlook)
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+ 3. [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.php)
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+ 4. [Ember Energy - U.S. Country Profile](https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-states-of-america/)
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+ 5. [Epoch AI: America's AI Power Problem (Dec 2025)](https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/is-almost-everyone-wrong-about-americas-ai-power-problem)
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+ 6. [Woodway Energy: Bridging the 5-Year Gap](https://www.woodwayenergy.com/off-grid-btm-gas-power-generation-data-centers/)
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  """)
168
 
169
+
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  st.sidebar.markdown('<div class="spacer"></div>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
171
 
172
  # 3. Turbine Efficiency
 
226
  """, unsafe_allow_html=True)
227
 
228
  # 2. Charts
 
229
 
230
  # Updated Data from Our World in Data (Billion tCO2e -> Million tCO2e)
231
  years = [2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024]
 
242
  fig1.add_trace(go.Scatter(
243
  x=years, y=emissions_hist,
244
  mode='lines+markers',
245
+ name='Historical CO₂',
246
+ line=dict(color='gray', width=4),
247
+ marker=dict(size=12)
248
  ))
249
 
250
  # Target Dot (Changed from line to single marker)
 
252
  x=[2030], y=[target_2030],
253
  mode='markers',
254
  name='2030 Climate Goal (50% Cut)',
255
+ marker=dict(color='green', size=15, symbol='circle')
256
  ))
257
 
258
  # AI Impact Stacked Bar
259
  fig1.add_trace(go.Bar(
260
  x=[2030], y=[bau_2030],
261
  name='2030 Baseline Estimate',
262
+ marker_color='gray'
263
  ))
264
  fig1.add_trace(go.Bar(
265
  x=[2030], y=[ai_emissions_mmt],
 
272
  height=650,
273
  font=dict(size=18),
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  title={
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+ 'text': "US Emissions Trajectory vs. AI Impact",
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+ 'font': {'size': 30},
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  'x': 0.5,
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  'xanchor': 'center'
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  },