{
  "summary": {
    "n_predictions": 361,
    "n_observations": 15597,
    "date_range": "2024-12-09 to 2026-05-22"
  },
  "decay_curve": [
    {
      "ic": 0.010842649081371931,
      "p_value": 0.5366997092778675,
      "n": 3249,
      "ci_lower": -0.022312950572843132,
      "ci_upper": 0.04434736305002158,
      "horizon": 1
    },
    {
      "ic": 0.016010154324400425,
      "p_value": 0.36161812916098274,
      "n": 3249,
      "ci_lower": -0.020909436022960266,
      "ci_upper": 0.05098600965068408,
      "horizon": 2
    },
    {
      "ic": 0.0483085988139697,
      "p_value": 0.0058846854173515055,
      "n": 3249,
      "ci_lower": 0.015004222811843217,
      "ci_upper": 0.08164315213684191,
      "horizon": 5
    },
    {
      "ic": 0.08763479758802381,
      "p_value": 7.266250049903189e-07,
      "n": 3186,
      "ci_lower": 0.05006772481666812,
      "ci_upper": 0.12154109858940572,
      "horizon": 10
    },
    {
      "ic": 0.04686035460157709,
      "p_value": 0.015570013247258955,
      "n": 2664,
      "ci_lower": 0.010138893628952306,
      "ci_upper": 0.08685060991191736,
      "horizon": 20
    }
  ],
  "direction_accuracy": {
    "1": {
      "accuracy": 0.5096153846153846,
      "correct": 318,
      "total": 624
    },
    "5": {
      "accuracy": 0.5288461538461539,
      "correct": 330,
      "total": 624
    },
    "10": {
      "accuracy": 0.5171849427168577,
      "correct": 316,
      "total": 611
    }
  },
  "ic_by_source": {
    "arxiv": {
      "ic": -0.01759884417432572,
      "p_value": 0.8394521230847642,
      "n": 135
    },
    "news": {
      "ic": 0.049219929230873705,
      "p_value": 0.00601077257282562,
      "n": 3114
    }
  },
  "ic_by_ticker": {
    "IONQ": {
      "ic": 0.04367895493713617,
      "p_value": 0.4080008067870048,
      "n": 361
    },
    "RGTI": {
      "ic": 0.12987707397683337,
      "p_value": 0.013527381840960197,
      "n": 361
    },
    "QBTS": {
      "ic": 0.08498516638523321,
      "p_value": 0.10695418065212776,
      "n": 361
    },
    "QUBT": {
      "ic": 0.0838806737343516,
      "p_value": 0.11160721014476688,
      "n": 361
    },
    "IBM": {
      "ic": 0.057040112921264964,
      "p_value": 0.2797488339741528,
      "n": 361
    },
    "GOOGL": {
      "ic": -0.022756332364258183,
      "p_value": 0.666521736681608,
      "n": 361
    },
    "MSFT": {
      "ic": -0.033424722951485276,
      "p_value": 0.5267048197631223,
      "n": 361
    },
    "HON": {
      "ic": 0.1663565959475496,
      "p_value": 0.001514223171679334,
      "n": 361
    },
    "NVDA": {
      "ic": -0.17492317408841318,
      "p_value": 0.0008444938453064904,
      "n": 361
    }
  },
  "ic_by_event_type": {
    "academic_paper": {
      "ic": 0.12525560695212223,
      "p_value": 0.2652047007703262,
      "n": 81
    },
    "Sector-wide sentiment shift": {
      "ic": -0.3530493940568014,
      "p_value": 0.07086085914448845,
      "n": 27
    },
    "Government Funding": {
      "ic": 0.19568347074214495,
      "p_value": 0.05224513713100501,
      "n": 99
    },
    "error_correction_breakthrough": {
      "ic": 0.08234350635965255,
      "p_value": 0.4916741289148124,
      "n": 72
    },
    "superconducting_breakthrough": {
      "ic": -0.14472584978200367,
      "p_value": 0.47137812504810095,
      "n": 27
    },
    "trapped-ion breakthrough": {
      "ic": -0.019256693590013356,
      "p_value": 0.8809236798652323,
      "n": 63
    },
    "irrelevant": {
      "ic": NaN,
      "p_value": NaN,
      "n": 45
    },
    "sentiment": {
      "ic": 0.23586780459122558,
      "p_value": 0.16608548325793196,
      "n": 36
    },
    "technological_progress": {
      "ic": -0.06620056527527457,
      "p_value": 0.7012699911077985,
      "n": 36
    },
    "non-quantum": {
      "ic": NaN,
      "p_value": NaN,
      "n": 126
    },
    "Research Publication": {
      "ic": 0.04647937280708023,
      "p_value": 0.6982396896787522,
      "n": 72
    },
    "strategic partnership": {
      "ic": -0.055354359985174864,
      "p_value": 0.7484750259940576,
      "n": 36
    },
    "error_correction": {
      "ic": 0.33531340467472065,
      "p_value": 0.04558935687187667,
      "n": 36
    },
    "funding_round": {
      "ic": NaN,
      "p_value": NaN,
      "n": 27
    },
    "none": {
      "ic": NaN,
      "p_value": NaN,
      "n": 27
    },
    "government_funding": {
      "ic": 0.3688758798370275,
      "p_value": 0.012649416143863156,
      "n": 45
    },
    "technological advancement": {
      "ic": -0.11413194209154327,
      "p_value": 0.5708212967217875,
      "n": 27
    },
    "quantum computing breakthrough": {
      "ic": 0.3659936675809282,
      "p_value": 0.013416170754773138,
      "n": 45
    },
    "government_policy": {
      "ic": -0.040348502177920166,
      "p_value": 0.8416234614839969,
      "n": 27
    },
    "Quantum Error Correction Breakthrough": {
      "ic": -0.06814648474844212,
      "p_value": 0.6243995014619476,
      "n": 54
    },
    "adjacent_enabler": {
      "ic": 0.06523098046294788,
      "p_value": 0.5212103265086769,
      "n": 99
    },
    "quantum error correction": {
      "ic": -0.05666082428147829,
      "p_value": 0.7427371394292568,
      "n": 36
    },
    "quantum_technology_breakthrough": {
      "ic": -0.035719687965975105,
      "p_value": 0.8596038592773453,
      "n": 27
    }
  }
}