{
  "Nemotron-7B (SFT + GRPO, Manus Teacher)": {
    "n_predictions": 342,
    "n_observations": 1540,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": 0.15133705937535044,
        "p_value": 0.0027323239570524877,
        "n": 390
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": 0.11839899617543623,
        "p_value": 0.02368422189685372,
        "n": 365
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": 0.15673166826769214,
        "p_value": 0.005605587004974826,
        "n": 311
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.16016765774371008,
        "p_value": 0.008372760788665752,
        "n": 270
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.1585737792001657,
        "p_value": 0.023492936952148647,
        "n": 204
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.5862068965517241,
      "n": 261
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-7B (Best-of-4 SFT, Manus Teacher)": {
    "n_predictions": 258,
    "n_observations": 938,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": 0.04071017789473223,
        "p_value": 0.5276492216130347,
        "n": 243
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": 0.21653544398711053,
        "p_value": 0.000999127506884105,
        "n": 228
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": 0.13896370904672078,
        "p_value": 0.060641815758503324,
        "n": 183
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.016262804153897626,
        "p_value": 0.8382670785659257,
        "n": 160
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.12993920429930514,
        "p_value": 0.15032248859824535,
        "n": 124
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.5510204081632653,
      "n": 147
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-7B (SFT + DPO, Manus Teacher)": {
    "n_predictions": 340,
    "n_observations": 1444,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": 0.06305758987524085,
        "p_value": 0.2333434405036308,
        "n": 359
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": 0.05997507359090778,
        "p_value": 0.272250882135017,
        "n": 337
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": 0.06980694232032451,
        "p_value": 0.22957425133553674,
        "n": 298
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.07728259750345057,
        "p_value": 0.21512915006209438,
        "n": 259
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.13642872220850605,
        "p_value": 0.05984764039311204,
        "n": 191
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.5656108597285068,
      "n": 221
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-7B (SFT + Thinking, Manus Teacher)": {
    "n_predictions": 363,
    "n_observations": 6688,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": -0.023466446987174896,
        "p_value": 0.3028239493498633,
        "n": 1930
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": 0.025401578358725915,
        "p_value": 0.30674052833540394,
        "n": 1621
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": -0.010029340325530633,
        "p_value": 0.7199848544445703,
        "n": 1280
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.0483803712312681,
        "p_value": 0.11458139253150973,
        "n": 1065
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.08981157990172253,
        "p_value": 0.011450491212911315,
        "n": 792
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.518025078369906,
      "n": 1276
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-7B (SFT + Bearish, Manus Teacher)": {
    "n_predictions": 405,
    "n_observations": 7704,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": -0.06004980972308451,
        "p_value": 0.004522103780931757,
        "n": 2234
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": -0.06364464371955256,
        "p_value": 0.005680583716863656,
        "n": 1887
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": -0.09414103682583536,
        "p_value": 0.0002598442555052048,
        "n": 1501
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.0410165813555311,
        "p_value": 0.15441259574325564,
        "n": 1207
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.10274480416130091,
        "p_value": 0.0023427591148939392,
        "n": 875
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.48130841121495327,
      "n": 1498
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-7B (SFT, Manus Teacher)": {
    "n_predictions": 388,
    "n_observations": 3265,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": 0.03183775000348284,
        "p_value": 0.36430795464818033,
        "n": 814
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": 0.03171656860131455,
        "p_value": 0.38542529940549464,
        "n": 751
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": 0.07449665928589075,
        "p_value": 0.051820262349632655,
        "n": 682
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.12812259772393858,
        "p_value": 0.001954608091266253,
        "n": 582
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.13577796817862944,
        "p_value": 0.004509206112266428,
        "n": 436
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.5293233082706766,
      "n": 665
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-7B (SFT, GPT-5.5 Teacher)": {
    "n_predictions": 311,
    "n_observations": 2236,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": -0.012449958147774658,
        "p_value": 0.7532489491651047,
        "n": 640
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": 0.04937556372078573,
        "p_value": 0.25649298900834255,
        "n": 530
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": 0.0694607041997462,
        "p_value": 0.15631124648713524,
        "n": 418
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.09092840152484534,
        "p_value": 0.0778496001130096,
        "n": 377
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.0997090126631559,
        "p_value": 0.10143955322543599,
        "n": 271
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.5456730769230769,
      "n": 416
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-7B (SFT + GRPO, GPT-5.5 Teacher)": {
    "n_predictions": 321,
    "n_observations": 2333,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": -0.059233100334789464,
        "p_value": 0.12252486835804242,
        "n": 681
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": -0.04442037171246653,
        "p_value": 0.2846862335515659,
        "n": 582
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": 0.0462351420377592,
        "p_value": 0.316687090194408,
        "n": 471
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.09465903779557103,
        "p_value": 0.07364898626683457,
        "n": 358
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.0026168814674867595,
        "p_value": 0.9677632450224569,
        "n": 241
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.5415778251599147,
      "n": 469
    }
  },
  "Manus (Teacher, Direct)": {
    "n_predictions": 421,
    "n_observations": 4465,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": 0.07520290575431239,
        "p_value": 0.013135444929827307,
        "n": 1087
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": 0.07286858827054352,
        "p_value": 0.019459523257903594,
        "n": 1028
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": 0.049940940375474994,
        "p_value": 0.12340206367824198,
        "n": 953
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": -0.08302792201906682,
        "p_value": 0.018249333711449746,
        "n": 808
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": -0.05719640354421617,
        "p_value": 0.16565403855865118,
        "n": 589
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.5453488372093023,
      "n": 860
    }
  },
  "GPT-5.5 (Teacher, Direct)": {
    "n_predictions": 421,
    "n_observations": 786,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": 0.22341486850535283,
        "p_value": 0.0010269317091460065,
        "n": 213
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": 0.16379795800127228,
        "p_value": 0.02079235834676979,
        "n": 199
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": 0.06197806591113748,
        "p_value": 0.4006963654412396,
        "n": 186
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": -0.03621800696767055,
        "p_value": 0.6801262930580105,
        "n": 132
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.052385851150254126,
        "p_value": 0.7013924221150697,
        "n": 56
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.725,
      "n": 160
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-7B (Base, No Fine-Tuning)": {
    "n_predictions": 278,
    "n_observations": 2539,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": -0.12450125217808267,
        "p_value": 0.0005915450558105003,
        "n": 758
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": -0.017953408844330117,
        "p_value": 0.6557354377722434,
        "n": 619
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": -0.10723387476125326,
        "p_value": 0.015608197712822108,
        "n": 508
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": -0.009266803005239055,
        "p_value": 0.8572991005825865,
        "n": 379
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.08551424811314301,
        "p_value": 0.15729563140518094,
        "n": 275
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.5531496062992126,
      "n": 508
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-14B (Base, No Fine-Tuning)": {
    "n_predictions": 389,
    "n_observations": 4438,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": -0.1273644649387756,
        "p_value": 4.733436207654943e-06,
        "n": 1283
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": -0.10074822966768027,
        "p_value": 0.001021218531663946,
        "n": 1060
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": -0.07181355454160375,
        "p_value": 0.03357021319509315,
        "n": 876
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.05476606382334482,
        "p_value": 0.14922528546860614,
        "n": 695
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.09434363317195438,
        "p_value": 0.030828052680672444,
        "n": 524
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.49336550060313633,
      "n": 829
    }
  },
  "Nemotron-32B (Base, No Fine-Tuning)": {
    "n_predictions": 416,
    "n_observations": 5791,
    "decay_curve": [
      {
        "horizon": 1,
        "ic": -0.0930898472112231,
        "p_value": 9.622608795803237e-05,
        "n": 1750
      },
      {
        "horizon": 2,
        "ic": -0.012070648554869624,
        "p_value": 0.6493731737991248,
        "n": 1421
      },
      {
        "horizon": 5,
        "ic": 0.02585212403158173,
        "p_value": 0.3931880030191568,
        "n": 1093
      },
      {
        "horizon": 10,
        "ic": 0.03609213312411273,
        "p_value": 0.2840260403108237,
        "n": 883
      },
      {
        "horizon": 20,
        "ic": 0.08442602950404149,
        "p_value": 0.03218094587377862,
        "n": 644
      }
    ],
    "direction_accuracy_5d": {
      "accuracy": 0.5199619771863118,
      "n": 1052
    }
  }
}