| import streamlit as st |
| from pathlib import Path |
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| st.set_page_config(page_title="Calibration Benchmark", page_icon="π ", layout="wide") |
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| |
| st.sidebar.title("Navigation") |
| st.sidebar.page_link("streamlit_app.py", label="Home", icon="π ") |
| st.sidebar.page_link("pages/OptimizationLeaderboard.py", label="Optimization Leaderboard", icon="π") |
| st.sidebar.page_link("pages/UQLeaderboard.py", label="UQ Leaderboard", icon="π―") |
| st.sidebar.page_link("pages/MethodDetails.py", label="Methods", icon="π") |
| st.sidebar.page_link("pages/RawData.py", label="Get Data", icon="π§Ύ") |
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| st.title("Calibration Benchmark") |
| st.markdown( |
| "A benchmark comparing parameter-calibration methods on chaotic dynamical systems. " |
| "Methods are ranked by **forward-model run efficiency** β how many forward-model " |
| "evaluations are needed, on average across random seeds, to reach a target accuracy." |
| ) |
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|
| st.divider() |
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| col1, col2 = st.columns(2, gap="large") |
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| with col1: |
| st.subheader("π Optimization Leaderboard") |
| st.markdown( |
| "Ranks methods by mean forward-model runs to reach an **RMSE target** on " |
| "Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 benchmarks. " |
| "Lower is better; failed runs are tracked separately as a failure rate." |
| ) |
| st.page_link("pages/OptimizationLeaderboard.py", label="Go to Optimization Leaderboard β") |
|
|
| with col2: |
| st.subheader("π― UQ Leaderboard") |
| st.markdown( |
| "Ranks methods by mean forward-model runs to reach an **uncertainty quantification " |
| "target**. Same metric and benchmarks as the Optimization Leaderboard, evaluated " |
| "at a UQ-specific convergence criterion." |
| ) |
| st.page_link("pages/UQLeaderboard.py", label="Go to UQ Leaderboard β") |
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| st.divider() |
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| st.subheader("Benchmarks") |
| st.markdown( |
| "Results are reported on four benchmark configurations of the [Lorenz system]" |
| "(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorenz_system), a standard testbed for " |
| "data-assimilation and calibration algorithms:" |
| ) |
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|
| _media = Path(__file__).parent / "media" |
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| st.markdown("- **L63** β Lorenz-63 β 3-variable chaotic attractor; learn 2 parameters, strongly nonlinear.") |
| st.image( |
| str(_media / "posterior_ribbons_20_13_k5.png"), |
| caption="Example prior-posterior & truth. L: Difference to true parameter. R: data-sample/output predictived distribution (state-mean [1:3], state-covariance (diag [4:6] and off-diag [7:9]))", |
| width=800, |
| ) |
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| st.markdown("- **L96** β Lorenz-96 (40-variable); learn 1-parameter constant forcing.") |
| st.image( |
| str(_media / "posterior_ribbons_const-force_12_1_k3.png"), |
| caption="Example prior-posterior & truth. L: Difference to true parameter. C: parameter-induced forcing of the L96 system. R: data-sample/output predictived distribution ([1:40] state-mean [41:80] state-std)", |
| width=1200, |
| ) |
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| st.markdown("- **L96_SPATIAL_FORCING** β Lorenz-96 (40-variable) with spatially-varying forcing; learn 40 parameters; moderately correlated prior.") |
| st.image( |
| str(_media / "posterior_ribbons_vec-force_65_1_k3.png"), |
| caption="Example prior-posterior & truth. L: Difference to true parameters. C: parameter-induced forcing of the L96 system. R: data-sample/output predictived distribution ([1:40] state-mean [41:80] state-std)", |
| width=1200, |
| ) |
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| st.markdown("- **L96_NN_FORCING** β Lorenz-96 (100-variable) with a neural-network forcing; Learn 61 parameters (weights and biases of the network). Reasonable prior given.") |
| st.image( |
| str(_media / "posterior_ribbons_flux-force_80_1_k3.png"), |
| caption="Example prior-posterior & truth. L: Difference to true parameters (weights). C: parameter-induced forcing of the L96 system. R: data-sample/output predictived distribution ([1:100] state-mean [101:200] state-std)", |
| width=1200, |
| ) |
|
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| st.subheader("Method families") |
| st.markdown( |
| "Methods are grouped into three families. See the **π Methods** page for " |
| "citations and per-method performance charts." |
| ) |
| families = { |
| "Kalman": "Ensemble Kalman variants (TEKI, ETKI, IEKF, UKI) β update an ensemble of parameter guesses via a linearized observation operator.", |
| "Bayesian": "Sampling-based approaches (ABC, HM) β explore parameter space without requiring gradient information.", |
| "Calibrate-then-emulate": "Two-stage pipelines (CES-EKI-DMC) β use an initial calibration phase to build a cheap emulator, then sample the posterior via MCMC.", |
| } |
| for family, desc in families.items(): |
| st.markdown(f"- **{family}** β {desc}") |
|
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| st.subheader("Key metric") |
| st.markdown( |
| "The reported metric is the **mean number of forward-model evaluations** required " |
| "to reach the target, averaged over random seeds. " |
| "A value of **β1** indicates a failed run (did not reach the target); " |
| "the **failure rate** shows the fraction of seeds that failed." |
| ) |
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