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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
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  <title>GridOps India Case Study | Capabl Machines</title>
  <meta name="description" content="GridOps is a Capabl Machines case study on AI-managed community microgrids for India's fast-growing rooftop solar future.">
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  </style>
</head>
<body>
  <nav class="nav" aria-label="Project navigation">
    <a class="brand" href="/case-study" aria-label="GridOps India case study">
      <span class="brand-mark">G</span>
      <span>GridOps</span>
    </a>
    <div class="nav-links">
      <a href="#india">India context</a>
      <a href="#machine">Capabl Machine</a>
      <a href="#results">Results</a>
      <a href="/dashboard/">Live demo</a>
    </div>
  </nav>

  <main>
    <section class="hero">
      <div class="hero-content">
        <p class="eyebrow">For India's next solar decade</p>
        <h1>Every society can run like a smart power plant.</h1>
        <p class="hero-subtitle">Solar has scaled. Now the hard problem is local dispatch: when to store, buy, shed, use backup, or sell flexibility so communities save money and keep the lights on.</p>
        <div class="hero-actions">
          <a class="button primary" href="/dashboard/">Open the live environment</a>
          <a class="button secondary" href="#results">See the model evidence</a>
        </div>
      </div>
    </section>

    <section class="section light" id="india">
      <div class="wrap">
        <p class="eyebrow">Why now</p>
        <h2>India has already built the solar base. The next layer is intelligence.</h2>
        <p class="lede">MNRE reports 150.26 GW of cumulative solar capacity as of March 31, 2026, including 25.73 GW of grid-connected rooftop solar. PIB's India Solar Momentum note shows how fast this moved: from 3 GW in 2014 to 129.92 GW by October 2025, with nearly 24 lakh PM Surya Ghar households already solarised by December 2025.</p>
        <div class="stats">
          <div class="stat"><strong>150.26 GW</strong><span>solar capacity reported by MNRE</span></div>
          <div class="stat"><strong>25.73 GW</strong><span>grid-connected rooftop solar</span></div>
          <div class="stat"><strong>24 lakh</strong><span>PM Surya Ghar households noted by PIB</span></div>
          <div class="stat"><strong>1 crore</strong><span>national rooftop household ambition</span></div>
        </div>
        <div class="wide-image">
          <img src="/assets/case_study/capabl_rooftop_infrastructure.webp" alt="Indian apartment society rooftop solar, battery storage, EV charging, and transformer infrastructure" width="1280" height="720" loading="lazy" decoding="async">
        </div>
        <p class="source-line">Context sources: <a href="https://mnre.gov.in/en/physical-progress/">MNRE Physical Achievements</a> and <a href="https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2025/dec/doc2025126720001.pdf">PIB India Solar Momentum</a>.</p>
        <div class="infographic" id="journey" aria-label="GridOps India solar intelligence journey infographic">
          <div class="infographic-scroll">
            <img src="/assets/case_study/capabl_energy_journey_infographic.svg" alt="Journey from India's rooftop solar scale to local microgrid complexity, Capabl Machine dispatch, and community outcomes" width="2200" height="900" loading="lazy" decoding="async">
          </div>
        </div>
      </div>
    </section>

    <section class="section soft">
      <div class="wrap split">
        <div>
          <p class="eyebrow">The new operating problem</p>
          <h2>A rooftop solar site is no longer just a bill reducer.</h2>
          <p class="lede">An apartment society, campus, hospital, market, cold storage unit, EV hub, or rural microgrid is becoming a small energy business. It has solar, battery, grid tariffs, backup fuel, comfort expectations, outage risk, and sometimes export or demand-response opportunity.</p>
          <p class="lede">Running that well usually needs a capable energy manager. GridOps asks a sharper question: can we turn that expertise into a Capabl Machine?</p>
          <div class="uses" aria-label="Example users">
            <span class="use">Apartment societies</span>
            <span class="use">RWAs and townships</span>
            <span class="use">Schools and campuses</span>
            <span class="use">Hospitals and clinics</span>
            <span class="use">EV charging hubs</span>
            <span class="use">Rural microgrids</span>
          </div>
        </div>
        <div class="image-frame">
          <img src="/assets/case_study/capabl_society_operator.webp" alt="Indian society manager and solar installer reviewing microgrid intelligence" width="1120" height="630" loading="lazy" decoding="async">
        </div>
      </div>
    </section>

    <section class="section light" id="machine">
      <div class="wrap split reverse">
        <div class="image-frame">
          <img src="/assets/case_study/capabl_neighbourhood_dispatch.webp" alt="Indian neighbourhood microgrid with solar, battery, EV charging, grid connection, and local dispatch" width="1280" height="720" loading="lazy" decoding="async">
        </div>
        <div>
          <p class="eyebrow">What intelligence unlocks</p>
          <h2>From solar asset to earning, resilient infrastructure.</h2>
          <p class="lede">A model that understands local state can do more than answer questions. It can decide. Charge before a price spike. Save battery before an outage. Use diesel only when it protects critical load. Reduce peak demand. Export or shift load when the economics make sense.</p>
          <div class="idea-grid">
            <article class="idea">
              <h3>Keep lights on</h3>
              <p>Prioritise battery and backup for high-risk hours instead of wasting them early.</p>
            </article>
            <article class="idea">
              <h3>Lower operating cost</h3>
              <p>Buy less from the grid during expensive windows and avoid unnecessary diesel burn.</p>
            </article>
            <article class="idea">
              <h3>Earn from flexibility</h3>
              <p>Make solar, storage, EV chargers, and flexible loads act like a coordinated local power plant.</p>
            </article>
          </div>
        </div>
      </div>
    </section>

    <section class="section dark">
      <div class="wrap">
        <p class="eyebrow">How we built the Capabl Machine</p>
        <h2>Environment first. Model second. Evidence always.</h2>
        <p class="lede">GridOps is an OpenEnv microgrid environment with a stable API. The model sees hourly observations and must output one valid action: <code>{"battery_dispatch": ..., "diesel_dispatch": ..., "demand_shedding": ...}</code>. No vague prose. No fake expertise. The environment executes the action and scores the outcome.</p>
        <div class="flow">
          <article class="flow-step">
            <span>01</span>
            <h3>Simulate reality</h3>
            <p>Demand, solar, price, battery, fuel, heatwave stress, and outage constraints.</p>
          </article>
          <article class="flow-step">
            <span>02</span>
            <h3>Teach the curriculum</h3>
            <p>1,418 traces across normal, heatwave, crisis, and targeted edge cases.</p>
          </article>
          <article class="flow-step">
            <span>03</span>
            <h3>Train compactly</h3>
            <p>Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct with QLoRA SFT to learn reliable JSON actions.</p>
          </article>
          <article class="flow-step">
            <span>04</span>
            <h3>Evaluate honestly</h3>
            <p>Heldout seeds compare do-nothing, trained model, and oracle policy.</p>
          </article>
        </div>
      </div>
    </section>

    <section class="section soft" id="results">
      <div class="wrap">
        <p class="eyebrow">What changed after training</p>
        <h2>The model learned useful battery behaviour, not a shortcut.</h2>
        <p class="lede">Across heldout seeds, the SFT model beat the do-nothing baseline on every task, reached 99.85% valid JSON actions, reduced blackout energy, and used the battery heavily in the hardest crisis setting.</p>
        <div class="table-wrap" role="region" aria-label="GridOps holdout evaluation table" tabindex="0">
          <table>
            <thead>
              <tr>
                <th>Policy</th>
                <th>Normal</th>
                <th>Heatwave</th>
                <th>Crisis</th>
                <th>Average</th>
                <th>What it means</th>
              </tr>
            </thead>
            <tbody>
              <tr>
                <td>Do-nothing baseline</td>
                <td>0.5820</td>
                <td>0.5057</td>
                <td>0.4522</td>
                <td>0.5133</td>
                <td>Solar exists, but no intelligent dispatch.</td>
              </tr>
              <tr>
                <td><strong>SFT action model</strong></td>
                <td><strong>0.6615</strong></td>
                <td><strong>0.7300</strong></td>
                <td><strong>0.6648</strong></td>
                <td><strong>0.6854</strong></td>
                <td>Reliable actions, lower outage impact, better energy use.</td>
              </tr>
              <tr>
                <td>Oracle policy</td>
                <td>0.7932</td>
                <td>0.8087</td>
                <td>0.7046</td>
                <td>0.7688</td>
                <td>Reference headroom for the next training phase.</td>
              </tr>
            </tbody>
          </table>
        </div>
        <div class="stats">
          <div class="stat"><strong>+33%</strong><span>average score lift vs do-nothing</span></div>
          <div class="stat"><strong>99.85%</strong><span>valid JSON action rate</span></div>
          <div class="stat"><strong>2,898 kWh</strong><span>crisis battery throughput</span></div>
          <div class="stat"><strong>979 kWh</strong><span>crisis blackout kWh vs 2,426 baseline</span></div>
        </div>
        <div class="plots">
          <figure class="plot">
            <img src="/evals/plots/gridops_holdout_scores.png" alt="Holdout score comparison for do-nothing, SFT, and oracle policies" width="1200" height="750" loading="lazy" decoding="async">
            <figcaption>Holdout score by task.</figcaption>
          </figure>
          <figure class="plot">
            <img src="/evals/plots/gridops_battery_throughput.png" alt="Battery throughput by policy and task" width="1200" height="750" loading="lazy" decoding="async">
            <figcaption>Battery throughput confirms active dispatch.</figcaption>
          </figure>
          <figure class="plot">
            <img src="/evals/plots/gridops_blackout_kwh.png" alt="Blackout kilowatt hours by policy and task" width="1200" height="750" loading="lazy" decoding="async">
            <figcaption>Blackout energy falls sharply versus baseline.</figcaption>
          </figure>
          <figure class="plot">
            <img src="/evals/plots/gridops_sft_training_curve.png" alt="SFT training loss and token accuracy curve" width="1200" height="750" loading="lazy" decoding="async">
            <figcaption>Real training loss and token accuracy from the run.</figcaption>
          </figure>
        </div>
      </div>
    </section>

    <section class="section dark">
      <div class="wrap">
        <p class="eyebrow">The larger point</p>
        <h2>Capable people will still matter. But every site should not need one full-time.</h2>
        <p class="lede">The opportunity is to package operational judgement into a machine layer that local teams can trust: society managers, solar installers, facility operators, EV hub owners, campus admins, and microgrid developers. That is the Capabl Machines thesis in one working environment.</p>
        <div class="ledger">
          <a href="https://huggingface.co/spaces/77ethers/gridops">
            <strong>Live OpenEnv Space</strong>
            <span>Runnable dashboard and API surface.</span>
          </a>
          <a href="https://huggingface.co/77ethers/gridops-models">
            <strong>Model repository</strong>
            <span>Adapter, model card, plots, and evaluation summary.</span>
          </a>
          <a href="https://github.com/capabl-machines/gridops/tree/codex/gridops-sft-pipeline">
            <strong>Source branch</strong>
            <span>Training scripts, validation harness, notebook, and docs.</span>
          </a>
        </div>
      </div>
    </section>
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