#!/usr/bin/env python3 """ TFT Training Pipeline Walk-forward training for the Temporal Fusion Transformer: 1. Fetches 2+ years of historical OHLCV data 2. Creates windowed (lookback, n_features) → (n_horizons,) dataset 3. Trains with quantile loss on MPS/CUDA/CPU 4. Evaluates directional accuracy per horizon 5. Saves best model per asset Usage: python -m src.models.train_forecaster --asset BTCUSDT --epochs 100 python -m src.models.train_forecaster --asset ETHUSDT --epochs 80 --resume """ import argparse import logging import os import sys import time from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd import torch from torch.utils.data import Dataset, DataLoader # Add project root PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT)) from src.models.price_forecaster import ( TemporalFusionTransformer, TFTFeaturePreprocessor, QuantileLoss, TFTForecaster, ) from src.backtest.data_loader import download_binance_data logging.basicConfig( level=logging.INFO, format='%(asctime)s - %(name)s - %(levelname)s - %(message)s' ) logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) # ─── Dataset ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── class TimeSeriesDataset(Dataset): """ Sliding window dataset for TFT training. Each sample: - x: (lookback, n_features) — past features - y: (n_horizons,) — future returns at each horizon """ def __init__( self, features: np.ndarray, targets: np.ndarray, lookback: int = 72, ): self.features = features self.targets = targets self.lookback = lookback # Valid indices: need lookback bars of history AND forward targets to exist max_horizon = targets.shape[1] # number of horizons self.valid_indices = [] for i in range(lookback, len(features)): # Check that targets are not all zero (which means we're at the end) if i < len(targets) and not np.all(targets[i] == 0): self.valid_indices.append(i) def __len__(self): return len(self.valid_indices) def __getitem__(self, idx): actual_idx = self.valid_indices[idx] x = self.features[actual_idx - self.lookback:actual_idx] y = self.targets[actual_idx] return ( torch.tensor(x, dtype=torch.float32), torch.tensor(y, dtype=torch.float32), ) # ─── Data Loading ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── def fetch_training_data( symbol: str = 'BTCUSDT', timeframe: str = '1h', days: int = 730, # 2 years ) -> pd.DataFrame: """Fetch historical data for training.""" logger.info(f"📥 Fetching {days} days of {timeframe} data for {symbol}...") # Convert BTCUSDT → BTC/USDT for the loader clean_symbol = symbol.replace('USDT', '/USDT') df = download_binance_data( symbol=clean_symbol, timeframe=timeframe, days=days, ) if df is None or df.empty: raise ValueError(f"Failed to fetch data for {symbol}") logger.info(f"✅ Fetched {len(df)} candles ({df.index[0]} → {df.index[-1]})") return df def prepare_datasets( df: pd.DataFrame, lookback: int = 72, horizons: list = None, train_ratio: float = 0.7, val_ratio: float = 0.15, ) -> tuple: """ Prepare train/val/test datasets with walk-forward split. Split is chronological (no data leakage): [====== train 70% ======][=== val 15% ===][=== test 15% ===] """ horizons = horizons or [1, 4, 12, 24] # Compute features and targets features = TFTFeaturePreprocessor.prepare_features(df) targets = TFTFeaturePreprocessor.prepare_targets(df, horizons) n = len(features) train_end = int(n * train_ratio) val_end = int(n * (train_ratio + val_ratio)) train_ds = TimeSeriesDataset(features[:train_end], targets[:train_end], lookback) val_ds = TimeSeriesDataset(features[train_end:val_end], targets[train_end:val_end], lookback) test_ds = TimeSeriesDataset(features[val_end:], targets[val_end:], lookback) logger.info( f"📊 Datasets: train={len(train_ds)}, val={len(val_ds)}, test={len(test_ds)} " f"(lookback={lookback}, horizons={horizons})" ) return train_ds, val_ds, test_ds # ─── Training Loop ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── def train_tft( symbol: str = 'BTCUSDT', epochs: int = 100, lookback: int = 72, hidden_dim: int = 64, batch_size: int = 64, learning_rate: float = 1e-3, patience: int = 15, days: int = 730, resume: bool = False, model_dir: str = './data/models/tft', ): """Full TFT training pipeline.""" # ── Device ── if torch.backends.mps.is_available(): device = torch.device('mps') elif torch.cuda.is_available(): device = torch.device('cuda') else: device = torch.device('cpu') logger.info(f"🖥️ Device: {device}") # ── Data ── df = fetch_training_data(symbol, '1h', days) train_ds, val_ds, test_ds = prepare_datasets(df, lookback) train_loader = DataLoader(train_ds, batch_size=batch_size, shuffle=True, num_workers=0) val_loader = DataLoader(val_ds, batch_size=batch_size, shuffle=False, num_workers=0) test_loader = DataLoader(test_ds, batch_size=batch_size, shuffle=False, num_workers=0) # ── Model ── model = TemporalFusionTransformer( n_features=TFTFeaturePreprocessor.N_FEATURES, hidden_dim=hidden_dim, ).to(device) # Resume from checkpoint model_path = os.path.join(model_dir, f'tft_{symbol.lower()}.pt') if resume and os.path.exists(model_path): model.load_state_dict(torch.load(model_path, map_location=device, weights_only=True)) logger.info(f"📂 Resumed from {model_path}") # ── Training setup ── criterion = QuantileLoss() optimizer = torch.optim.AdamW(model.parameters(), lr=learning_rate, weight_decay=1e-5) scheduler = torch.optim.lr_scheduler.CosineAnnealingLR(optimizer, T_max=epochs, eta_min=1e-6) # Count parameters n_params = sum(p.numel() for p in model.parameters() if p.requires_grad) logger.info(f"🧠 Model parameters: {n_params:,}") best_val_loss = float('inf') patience_counter = 0 # ── Training loop ── logger.info(f"\n{'='*60}") logger.info(f"🚀 Training TFT for {symbol} ({epochs} epochs)") logger.info(f"{'='*60}\n") for epoch in range(epochs): # ── Train ── model.train() train_loss = 0.0 n_train_batches = 0 for batch_x, batch_y in train_loader: batch_x, batch_y = batch_x.to(device), batch_y.to(device) optimizer.zero_grad() predictions, _ = model(batch_x) loss = criterion(predictions, batch_y) loss.backward() # Gradient clipping torch.nn.utils.clip_grad_norm_(model.parameters(), max_norm=1.0) optimizer.step() train_loss += loss.item() n_train_batches += 1 train_loss /= max(n_train_batches, 1) # ── Validate ── model.eval() val_loss = 0.0 n_val_batches = 0 val_correct = {h: 0 for h in [0, 1, 2, 3]} val_total = 0 with torch.no_grad(): for batch_x, batch_y in val_loader: batch_x, batch_y = batch_x.to(device), batch_y.to(device) predictions, _ = model(batch_x) loss = criterion(predictions, batch_y) val_loss += loss.item() n_val_batches += 1 # Directional accuracy (median predictions) median_idx = 1 # 50th percentile pred_dir = torch.sign(predictions[:, :, median_idx]) true_dir = torch.sign(batch_y) for h in range(predictions.shape[1]): val_correct[h] += (pred_dir[:, h] == true_dir[:, h]).sum().item() val_total += batch_y.shape[0] val_loss /= max(n_val_batches, 1) scheduler.step() # Directional accuracy per horizon dir_acc = {h: val_correct[h] / max(val_total, 1) * 100 for h in val_correct} # ── Logging ── if epoch % 5 == 0 or epoch == epochs - 1: logger.info( f"Epoch {epoch+1:3d}/{epochs} | " f"Train Loss: {train_loss:.6f} | " f"Val Loss: {val_loss:.6f} | " f"Dir Acc: 1h={dir_acc[0]:.1f}% 4h={dir_acc[1]:.1f}% " f"12h={dir_acc[2]:.1f}% 24h={dir_acc[3]:.1f}% | " f"LR: {scheduler.get_last_lr()[0]:.2e}" ) # ── Early stopping ── if val_loss < best_val_loss: best_val_loss = val_loss patience_counter = 0 # Save best model os.makedirs(model_dir, exist_ok=True) torch.save(model.state_dict(), model_path) logger.info(f" 💾 Best model saved (val_loss={val_loss:.6f})") else: patience_counter += 1 if patience_counter >= patience: logger.info(f" ⏹️ Early stopping (no improvement for {patience} epochs)") break # ── Final Evaluation on Test Set ── logger.info(f"\n{'='*60}") logger.info(f"📊 Final Evaluation on Test Set") logger.info(f"{'='*60}\n") # Load best model model.load_state_dict(torch.load(model_path, map_location=device, weights_only=True)) model.eval() test_preds = [] test_targets = [] with torch.no_grad(): for batch_x, batch_y in test_loader: batch_x = batch_x.to(device) predictions, _ = model(batch_x) median_preds = predictions[:, :, 1].cpu().numpy() # 50th percentile test_preds.append(median_preds) test_targets.append(batch_y.numpy()) test_preds = np.concatenate(test_preds) test_targets = np.concatenate(test_targets) horizons = [1, 4, 12, 24] for i, h in enumerate(horizons): pred_dir = np.sign(test_preds[:, i]) true_dir = np.sign(test_targets[:, i]) dir_acc = (pred_dir == true_dir).mean() * 100 mae = np.mean(np.abs(test_preds[:, i] - test_targets[:, i])) * 100 corr = np.corrcoef(test_preds[:, i], test_targets[:, i])[0, 1] logger.info( f" {h}h horizon: Dir.Acc={dir_acc:.1f}% | MAE={mae:.3f}% | Corr={corr:.3f}" ) # Save evaluation report report = { 'symbol': symbol, 'epochs_trained': epoch + 1, 'best_val_loss': float(best_val_loss), 'test_results': {}, 'n_params': n_params, 'lookback': lookback, 'hidden_dim': hidden_dim, } for i, h in enumerate(horizons): pred_dir = np.sign(test_preds[:, i]) true_dir = np.sign(test_targets[:, i]) report['test_results'][f'{h}h'] = { 'directional_accuracy': float((pred_dir == true_dir).mean() * 100), 'mae': float(np.mean(np.abs(test_preds[:, i] - test_targets[:, i])) * 100), 'correlation': float(np.corrcoef(test_preds[:, i], test_targets[:, i])[0, 1]), } import json report_path = os.path.join(model_dir, f'tft_{symbol.lower()}_report.json') with open(report_path, 'w') as f: json.dump(report, f, indent=2) logger.info(f"\n✅ Training complete! Model: {model_path}") logger.info(f"📄 Report: {report_path}") return model_path # ─── CLI ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── if __name__ == '__main__': parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description='Train TFT Price Forecaster') parser.add_argument('--asset', type=str, default='BTCUSDT', help='Trading pair') parser.add_argument('--epochs', type=int, default=100, help='Training epochs') parser.add_argument('--lookback', type=int, default=72, help='Lookback window (hours)') parser.add_argument('--hidden-dim', type=int, default=64, help='Hidden dimension') parser.add_argument('--batch-size', type=int, default=64, help='Batch size') parser.add_argument('--lr', type=float, default=1e-3, help='Learning rate') parser.add_argument('--patience', type=int, default=15, help='Early stopping patience') parser.add_argument('--days', type=int, default=730, help='Days of data') parser.add_argument('--resume', action='store_true', help='Resume from checkpoint') args = parser.parse_args() train_tft( symbol=args.asset, epochs=args.epochs, lookback=args.lookback, hidden_dim=args.hidden_dim, batch_size=args.batch_size, learning_rate=args.lr, patience=args.patience, days=args.days, resume=args.resume, )