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@@ -33,3 +33,4 @@ saved_model/**/* filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 *.zip filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 *.zst filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 *tfevents* filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
+model/feature_importance.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text

model/best_model.joblib

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
+oid sha256:5be2f7409c36d8a1cc2836a72e153ccac6e2777ea723c9ba93f745a4bb178c93
+size 1039747

model/feature_names.json

@@ -0,0 +1,230 @@
+[
+  "acres_kiptraq",
+  "lat",
+  "lon",
+  "temperature_avg_d0",
+  "temperature_max_d0",
+  "temperature_min_d0",
+  "humidity_avg_d0",
+  "humidity_max_d0",
+  "humidity_min_d0",
+  "wind_speed_avg_d0",
+  "wind_speed_max_d0",
+  "wind_speed_min_d0",
+  "wind_run_avg_d0",
+  "wind_run_max_d0",
+  "wind_run_min_d0",
+  "wind_chill_avg_d0",
+  "wind_chill_max_d0",
+  "wind_chill_min_d0",
+  "heat_index_avg_d0",
+  "heat_index_max_d0",
+  "heat_index_min_d0",
+  "thw_index_avg_d0",
+  "thw_index_max_d0",
+  "thw_index_min_d0",
+  "rain_avg_d0",
+  "rain_max_d0",
+  "rain_min_d0",
+  "rain_rate_avg_d0",
+  "rain_rate_max_d0",
+  "rain_rate_min_d0",
+  "solar_radiation_max_d0",
+  "solar_radiation_min_d0",
+  "ET_avg_d0",
+  "ET_max_d0",
+  "ET_min_d0",
+  "heating_degree_days_avg_d0",
+  "heating_degree_days_max_d0",
+  "heating_degree_days_min_d0",
+  "cooling_degree_days_avg_d0",
+  "cooling_degree_days_max_d0",
+  "cooling_degree_days_min_d0",
+  "temperature_avg_d1_before",
+  "temperature_max_d1_before",
+  "temperature_min_d1_before",
+  "humidity_avg_d1_before",
+  "humidity_max_d1_before",
+  "humidity_min_d1_before",
+  "wind_speed_avg_d1_before",
+  "wind_speed_max_d1_before",
+  "wind_speed_min_d1_before",
+  "wind_run_avg_d1_before",
+  "wind_run_max_d1_before",
+  "wind_run_min_d1_before",
+  "wind_chill_avg_d1_before",
+  "wind_chill_max_d1_before",
+  "wind_chill_min_d1_before",
+  "heat_index_avg_d1_before",
+  "heat_index_max_d1_before",
+  "heat_index_min_d1_before",
+  "thw_index_avg_d1_before",
+  "thw_index_max_d1_before",
+  "thw_index_min_d1_before",
+  "rain_avg_d1_before",
+  "rain_max_d1_before",
+  "rain_min_d1_before",
+  "rain_rate_avg_d1_before",
+  "rain_rate_max_d1_before",
+  "rain_rate_min_d1_before",
+  "solar_radiation_max_d1_before",
+  "solar_radiation_min_d1_before",
+  "ET_avg_d1_before",
+  "ET_max_d1_before",
+  "ET_min_d1_before",
+  "heating_degree_days_avg_d1_before",
+  "heating_degree_days_max_d1_before",
+  "heating_degree_days_min_d1_before",
+  "cooling_degree_days_avg_d1_before",
+  "cooling_degree_days_max_d1_before",
+  "cooling_degree_days_min_d1_before",
+  "temperature_avg_d3_before",
+  "temperature_max_d3_before",
+  "temperature_min_d3_before",
+  "humidity_avg_d3_before",
+  "humidity_max_d3_before",
+  "humidity_min_d3_before",
+  "wind_speed_avg_d3_before",
+  "wind_speed_max_d3_before",
+  "wind_speed_min_d3_before",
+  "wind_run_avg_d3_before",
+  "wind_run_max_d3_before",
+  "wind_run_min_d3_before",
+  "wind_chill_avg_d3_before",
+  "wind_chill_max_d3_before",
+  "wind_chill_min_d3_before",
+  "heat_index_avg_d3_before",
+  "heat_index_max_d3_before",
+  "heat_index_min_d3_before",
+  "thw_index_avg_d3_before",
+  "thw_index_max_d3_before",
+  "thw_index_min_d3_before",
+  "rain_avg_d3_before",
+  "rain_max_d3_before",
+  "rain_min_d3_before",
+  "rain_rate_avg_d3_before",
+  "rain_rate_max_d3_before",
+  "rain_rate_min_d3_before",
+  "solar_radiation_max_d3_before",
+  "solar_radiation_min_d3_before",
+  "ET_avg_d3_before",
+  "ET_max_d3_before",
+  "ET_min_d3_before",
+  "heating_degree_days_avg_d3_before",
+  "heating_degree_days_max_d3_before",
+  "heating_degree_days_min_d3_before",
+  "cooling_degree_days_avg_d3_before",
+  "cooling_degree_days_max_d3_before",
+  "cooling_degree_days_min_d3_before",
+  "temperature_avg_d7_before",
+  "temperature_max_d7_before",
+  "temperature_min_d7_before",
+  "humidity_avg_d7_before",
+  "humidity_max_d7_before",
+  "humidity_min_d7_before",
+  "wind_speed_avg_d7_before",
+  "wind_speed_max_d7_before",
+  "wind_speed_min_d7_before",
+  "wind_run_avg_d7_before",
+  "wind_run_max_d7_before",
+  "wind_run_min_d7_before",
+  "wind_chill_avg_d7_before",
+  "wind_chill_max_d7_before",
+  "wind_chill_min_d7_before",
+  "heat_index_avg_d7_before",
+  "heat_index_max_d7_before",
+  "heat_index_min_d7_before",
+  "thw_index_avg_d7_before",
+  "thw_index_max_d7_before",
+  "thw_index_min_d7_before",
+  "rain_avg_d7_before",
+  "rain_max_d7_before",
+  "rain_min_d7_before",
+  "rain_rate_avg_d7_before",
+  "rain_rate_max_d7_before",
+  "rain_rate_min_d7_before",
+  "solar_radiation_max_d7_before",
+  "solar_radiation_min_d7_before",
+  "ET_avg_d7_before",
+  "ET_max_d7_before",
+  "ET_min_d7_before",
+  "heating_degree_days_avg_d7_before",
+  "heating_degree_days_max_d7_before",
+  "heating_degree_days_min_d7_before",
+  "cooling_degree_days_avg_d7_before",
+  "cooling_degree_days_max_d7_before",
+  "cooling_degree_days_min_d7_before",
+  "org_conv_kiptraq_Conventional",
+  "org_conv_kiptraq_Organic",
+  "season_Fall",
+  "season_Spring",
+  "season_Summer",
+  "season_Winter",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_--",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_E",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_ENE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_ESE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_N",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_NE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_NNE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_NNW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_NW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_S",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_SE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_SSE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_SSW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_SW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_W",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_WNW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d0_WSW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_--",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_E",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_ENE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_ESE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_N",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_NE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_NNE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_NNW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_NW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_S",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_SE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_SSE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_SSW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_SW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_W",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_WNW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d1_before_WSW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_--",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_E",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_ENE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_ESE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_N",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_NE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_NNE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_NNW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_NW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_S",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_SE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_SSE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_SSW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_SW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_W",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_WNW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d3_before_WSW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_--",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_E",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_ENE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_ESE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_N",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_NE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_NNW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_NW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_S",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_SE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_SSE",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_SSW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_SW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_W",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_WNW",
+  "wind_direction_mode_d7_before_WSW"
+]

model/model_comparison.json

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+{
+  "RandomForest": {
+    "cv_roc_auc_mean": 0.6570736663913218,
+    "cv_roc_auc_std": 0.23626271641720448,
+    "best_params": {
+      "model__n_estimators": 1000,
+      "model__min_samples_split": 5,
+      "model__min_samples_leaf": 1,
+      "model__max_features": null,
+      "model__max_depth": null
+    }
+  },
+  "XGBoost": {
+    "cv_roc_auc_mean": 0.6802915502368345,
+    "cv_roc_auc_std": 0.25513056403399653,
+    "best_params": {
+      "model__subsample": 1.0,
+      "model__scale_pos_weight": 50,
+      "model__n_estimators": 500,
+      "model__max_depth": 5,
+      "model__learning_rate": 0.2,
+      "model__colsample_bytree": 1.0
+    }
+  },
+  "LightGBM": {
+    "cv_roc_auc_mean": 0.7117485460646773,
+    "cv_roc_auc_std": 0.23671957245320416,
+    "best_params": {
+      "model__subsample": 0.6,
+      "model__num_leaves": 100,
+      "model__n_estimators": 1000,
+      "model__max_depth": 3,
+      "model__learning_rate": 0.01,
+      "model__colsample_bytree": 0.6
+    }
+  }
+}

model/model_metrics.json

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+{
+  "winning_algorithm": "LightGBM",
+  "training_date": "2026-01-28T01:49:15.844819",
+  "metrics": {
+    "roc_auc": 0.9950623623266059,
+    "accuracy": 0.9896131512227039,
+    "precision": 0.07352941176470588,
+    "recall": 0.9090909090909091,
+    "f1_score": 0.1360544217687075,
+    "confusion_matrix": [
+      [
+        12090,
+        126
+      ],
+      [
+        1,
+        10
+      ]
+    ]
+  },
+  "top_features": {
+    "num__humidity_avg_d0": 356,
+    "num__heat_index_avg_d7_before": 327,
+    "num__rain_rate_max_d7_before": 297,
+    "num__rain_avg_d1_before": 229,
+    "num__acres_kiptraq": 181,
+    "num__solar_radiation_max_d7_before": 176,
+    "remainder__wind_direction_mode_d3_before_SSW": 175,
+    "num__heat_index_min_d7_before": 161,
+    "num__temperature_max_d1_before": 141,
+    "num__cooling_degree_days_min_d0": 141,
+    "remainder__wind_direction_mode_d0_WSW": 137,
+    "num__rain_rate_min_d7_before": 125,
+    "num__heating_degree_days_min_d3_before": 123,
+    "num__lat": 120,
+    "num__humidity_max_d1_before": 118,
+    "num__lon": 117,
+    "num__rain_rate_max_d1_before": 114,
+    "num__ET_max_d7_before": 106,
+    "num__wind_run_max_d0": 102,
+    "remainder__wind_direction_mode_d1_before_--": 101
+  }
+}

model/preprocessor.joblib

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+version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
+oid sha256:eb5dcc00380d2151cb8b49f830177c44ab2257892f7ff3daa89ca00bc640cccc
+size 4557