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Browse files- Dockerfile +11 -0
- app.ipynb +304 -0
- requirements.txt +7 -0
Dockerfile
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FROM python:3.9
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WORKDIR /code
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COPY ./requirements.txt /code/requirements.txt
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RUN pip install --no-cache-dir --upgrade -r /code/requirements.txt
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COPY . .
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CMD ["mnn", "serve", "/code/app.ipynb", "--address", "0.0.0.0", "--port", "7860", "--allow-websocket-origin", "*"]
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app.ipynb
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{
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"cells": [
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"import manganite\n",
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"%load_ext manganite"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"# Portfolio Selection Optimization\n",
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"This model is an example of the classic [Markowitz portfolio selection optimization model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markowitz_model). We want to find the fraction of the portfolio to invest among a set of stocks that balances risk and return. It is a Quadratic Programming (QP) model with vector and matrix data for returns and risk, respectively. This is best suited to a matrix formulation, so we use the Gurobi Python *matrix* interface. The basic model is fairly simple, so we also solve it parametrically to find the efficient frontier.\n",
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"\n",
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"**Download the Repository** <br /> \n",
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"You can download the repository containing this and other examples by clicking [here](https://github.com/Gurobi/modeling-examples/archive/master.zip). \n",
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"\n",
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"**Gurobi License** <br /> \n",
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"In order to run this Jupyter Notebook properly, you must have a Gurobi license. If you do not have one, you can request an [evaluation license](https://www.gurobi.com/downloads/request-an-evaluation-license/?utm_source=3PW&utm_medium=OT&utm_campaign=WW-MU-MUI-OR-O_LEA-PR_NO-Q3_FY20_WW_JPME_Lost_Luggage_Distribution_COM_EVAL_GitHub&utm_term=Lost%20Luggage%20Distribution&utm_content=C_JPM) as a *commercial user*, or download a [free license](https://www.gurobi.com/academia/academic-program-and-licenses/?utm_source=3PW&utm_medium=OT&utm_campaign=WW-MU-EDU-OR-O_LEA-PR_NO-Q3_FY20_WW_JPME_Lost_Luggage_Distribution_COM_EVAL_GitHub&utm_term=Lost%20Luggage%20Distribution&utm_content=C_JPM) as an *academic user*.\n",
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"\n",
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"\n",
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"## Model Formulation\n",
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"### Parameters\n",
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"\n",
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"We use the [Greek values](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greeks_\\(finance\\)) that are traditional in finance:\n",
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"\n",
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"- $$ \\delta $$: n-element vector measuring the change in price for each stock\n",
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"- $$ \\sigma $$: n x n matrix measuring the covariance among stocks\n",
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"\n",
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"There is one additional parameter when solving the model parametrically:\n",
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"\n",
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"- r: target return\n",
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"\n",
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"\n",
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"### Decision Variables\n",
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"- $$ x \\ge 0 $$ : n-element vector where each element represents the fraction of the porfolio to invest in each stock\n",
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"\n",
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"### Objective Function\n",
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"Minimize the total risk, a convex quadratic function:\n",
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"<pre>\n",
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"$$\n",
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"\\begin{equation}\n",
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"\\min x^t \\cdot \\sigma \\cdot x\n",
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"\\end{equation}\n",
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"$$\n",
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"</pre>\n",
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"\n",
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"### Constraints\n",
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"\n",
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"Allocate the entire portfolio: the total investments should be 1.0 (100%), where $e$ is a unit vector (all 1's):\n",
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"<pre>\n",
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"$$\n",
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"\\begin{equation}\n",
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"e \\cdot x = 1\n",
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"\\end{equation}\n",
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"$$\n",
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"</pre>\n",
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"Return: When we solve the model parametrically for different return values $r$, we add a constraint on the target return:\n",
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"<pre>\n",
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"$$\n",
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"\\begin{equation}\n",
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"\\delta \\cdot x = r\n",
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"\\end{equation}\n",
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"$$\n",
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"</pre>"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"## Python Implementation\n",
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"### Stock data\n",
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"Use [yfinance](https://pypi.org/project/yfinance/) library to get the latest 2 years of _actual stock data_ from the 20 most profitable US companies, [according to Wikipedia in April 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_in_the_United_States_by_revenue#List_of_companies_by_profit).\n",
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| 80 |
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"### Dashboard\n",
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"Use manganite package to create a beautiful dashoard from the jupyter notebook"
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| 82 |
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]
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},
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| 84 |
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{
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| 85 |
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"cell_type": "code",
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| 86 |
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"execution_count": null,
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| 87 |
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"metadata": {
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"scrolled": true
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},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"import yfinance as yf\n",
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"import numpy as np\n",
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"\n",
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"import gurobipy as gp\n",
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| 96 |
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"from gurobipy import GRB\n",
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| 97 |
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"from math import sqrt\n",
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"\n",
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"import pandas as pd\n",
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"import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
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"import plotly.express as px\n",
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| 102 |
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"import plotly.graph_objects as go\n",
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"\n",
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| 104 |
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"import plotly.io as pio\n",
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| 105 |
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"pio.templates.default = 'plotly_white'"
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]
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| 107 |
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},
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| 108 |
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{
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| 109 |
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"cell_type": "code",
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| 110 |
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"execution_count": null,
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| 111 |
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"metadata": {},
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| 112 |
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"outputs": [],
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| 113 |
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"source": [
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| 114 |
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"%%mnn widget --type text --tab \"Stock Selector\" --header \"Select your stocks\" --var stocks --position 0 0 3\n",
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| 115 |
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"stocks = 'AAPL, MSFT, JPM, GOOG, BAC, INTC, WFC, Meta'"
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]
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| 117 |
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},
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| 118 |
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{
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| 119 |
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"cell_type": "code",
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| 120 |
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"execution_count": null,
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| 121 |
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"metadata": {},
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| 122 |
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"outputs": [],
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| 123 |
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"source": [
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| 124 |
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"# Split the input string into a list using the column separator\n",
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"tick_marks_list = stocks.split(',')\n",
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"\n",
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| 127 |
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"# Remove unwanted characters and spaces from each element\n",
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| 128 |
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"clean_tick_marks = [tick.strip() for tick in tick_marks_list]\n",
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| 129 |
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"\n",
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| 130 |
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"data = yf.download(clean_tick_marks, period='2y')"
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| 131 |
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]
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| 132 |
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},
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| 133 |
+
{
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| 134 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
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| 135 |
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"execution_count": null,
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| 136 |
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"metadata": {},
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| 137 |
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"outputs": [],
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| 138 |
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"source": [
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| 139 |
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"%%mnn widget --type plot --var fig_stocks --tab \"Stock Selector\" --position 1 0 4 --header \"Stock prices\"\n",
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| 140 |
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"\n",
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| 141 |
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"df_closing = data['Close']\n",
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| 142 |
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"fig_stocks = px.line(df_closing, x=df_closing.index, y=df_closing.columns,\n",
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| 143 |
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" # hover_data={\"date\": \"|%B %d, %Y\"},\n",
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| 144 |
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" )\n",
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"\n",
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| 146 |
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"# Update the layout to customize axis labels\n",
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| 147 |
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"fig_stocks.update_yaxes(title_text='Stock Price ($)')\n",
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| 148 |
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"\n",
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| 149 |
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"fig_stocks.update_xaxes(\n",
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| 150 |
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" title_text='',\n",
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| 151 |
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" dtick=\"M1\",\n",
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| 152 |
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" tickformat=\"%b\\n%Y\",\n",
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| 153 |
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" ticklabelmode=\"period\")\n",
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| 154 |
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"\n",
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| 155 |
+
"fig_stocks.update_layout(legend_title=\"Stock\",)"
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| 156 |
+
]
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| 157 |
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},
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| 158 |
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{
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| 159 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
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| 160 |
+
"execution_count": null,
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| 161 |
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"metadata": {},
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| 162 |
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"outputs": [],
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| 163 |
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"source": [
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| 164 |
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"%%mnn execute --on button \"Optimize Portfolio\" --returns solution\n",
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| 165 |
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"\n",
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| 166 |
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"#calculating greeks\n",
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| 167 |
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"closes = np.transpose(np.array(data.Close)) # matrix of daily closing prices\n",
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| 168 |
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"absdiff = np.diff(closes) # change in closing price each day\n",
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| 169 |
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"reldiff = np.divide(absdiff, closes[:,:-1]) # relative change in daily closing price\n",
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| 170 |
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"delta = np.mean(reldiff, axis=1) # mean price change\n",
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| 171 |
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"sigma = np.cov(reldiff) # covariance (standard deviations)\n",
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| 172 |
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"std = np.std(reldiff, axis=1) # standard deviation\n",
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| 173 |
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"df_plot = pd.DataFrame({'std': std, 'delta': delta, 'stocks':clean_tick_marks})\n",
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| 174 |
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"print('solving QP model')\n",
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| 175 |
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"# Create an empty model\n",
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| 176 |
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"m = gp.Model('portfolio')\n",
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"\n",
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| 178 |
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"# Add matrix variable for the stocks\n",
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| 179 |
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"x = m.addMVar(len(clean_tick_marks))\n",
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"\n",
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| 181 |
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"# Objective is to minimize risk (squared). This is modeled using the\n",
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| 182 |
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"# covariance matrix, which measures the historical correlation between stocks\n",
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| 183 |
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"portfolio_risk = x @ sigma @ x\n",
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| 184 |
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"m.setObjective(portfolio_risk, GRB.MINIMIZE)\n",
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"\n",
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| 186 |
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"# Fix budget with a constraint\n",
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| 187 |
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"m.addConstr(x.sum() == 1, 'budget')\n",
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"\n",
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| 189 |
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"# Verify model formulation\n",
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| 190 |
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"# m.write('portfolio_selection_optimization.lp')\n",
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"\n",
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| 192 |
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"# Optimize model to find the minimum risk portfolio\n",
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| 193 |
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"m.optimize()\n",
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"\n",
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| 195 |
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"minrisk_volatility = sqrt(m.ObjVal)\n",
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| 196 |
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"minrisk_return = delta @ x.X\n",
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"\n",
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| 198 |
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"# Create an expression representing the expected return for the portfolio\n",
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| 199 |
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"portfolio_return = delta @ x\n",
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"\n",
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"target = m.addConstr(portfolio_return == minrisk_return, 'target')\n",
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"\n",
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| 203 |
+
"# solution = pd.DataFrame(data=np.append(x.X, [minrisk_volatility, minrisk_return]),\n",
|
| 204 |
+
"# index=clean_tick_marks + ['Volatility', 'Expected Return'],\n",
|
| 205 |
+
"# columns=['Minimum Risk Portfolio'])\n",
|
| 206 |
+
"\n",
|
| 207 |
+
"solution = pd.DataFrame(data=x.X,\n",
|
| 208 |
+
" index=clean_tick_marks,\n",
|
| 209 |
+
" columns=['Minimum Risk Portfolio'])\n",
|
| 210 |
+
"\n",
|
| 211 |
+
"exp_return = minrisk_return\n",
|
| 212 |
+
"exp_volatility = minrisk_volatility\n",
|
| 213 |
+
"\n",
|
| 214 |
+
"# Solve for efficient frontier by varying target return\n",
|
| 215 |
+
"frontier = np.empty((2,0))\n",
|
| 216 |
+
"for r in np.linspace(delta.min(), delta.max(), 25):\n",
|
| 217 |
+
" target.rhs = r\n",
|
| 218 |
+
" m.optimize()\n",
|
| 219 |
+
" frontier = np.append(frontier, [[sqrt(m.ObjVal)],[r]], axis=1)\n",
|
| 220 |
+
"\n"
|
| 221 |
+
]
|
| 222 |
+
},
|
| 223 |
+
{
|
| 224 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 225 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 226 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 227 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 228 |
+
"source": [
|
| 229 |
+
"%%mnn widget --type plot --var fig_bar --tab \"Portfolio\" --position 0 0 3 --header \"Minimum Risk Portfolio\"\n",
|
| 230 |
+
"# Create a pie chart\n",
|
| 231 |
+
"fig_pie = px.pie(solution, values='Minimum Risk Portfolio', names=solution.index,\n",
|
| 232 |
+
" title=f'Your Portfolio Distribution<br>Expected Return: {round(exp_return,6)}<br>Volatility: {round(exp_volatility,4)}')\n",
|
| 233 |
+
"fig_pie.update_traces(textposition='inside', textinfo='percent+label')\n",
|
| 234 |
+
"\n",
|
| 235 |
+
"# Create a bar chart\n",
|
| 236 |
+
"fig_bar = px.bar(solution, x=solution.index, y='Minimum Risk Portfolio',\n",
|
| 237 |
+
"title=f'Your Portfolio Distribution<br>Expected Return: {round(exp_return,6)}<br>Volatility: {round(exp_volatility,4)}',\n",
|
| 238 |
+
")\n",
|
| 239 |
+
"\n",
|
| 240 |
+
"# Hide x-axis and y-axis labels\n",
|
| 241 |
+
"fig_bar.update_xaxes(title_text='')\n",
|
| 242 |
+
"fig_bar.update_yaxes(title_text='')"
|
| 243 |
+
]
|
| 244 |
+
},
|
| 245 |
+
{
|
| 246 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 247 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 248 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 249 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 250 |
+
"source": [
|
| 251 |
+
"%%mnn widget --type plot --var fig --tab \"Portfolio\" --position 0 3 3 --header \"Efficient Frontier\"\n",
|
| 252 |
+
"\n",
|
| 253 |
+
"update = solution\n",
|
| 254 |
+
"# Plot volatility versus expected return for individual stocks\n",
|
| 255 |
+
"fig1 = px.scatter(df_plot, x=\"std\", y=\"delta\" ,\n",
|
| 256 |
+
" labels = { \"std\": \"Volatility (standard deviation)\", \"delta\": \"Expected Return\"}, text=\"stocks\" )\n",
|
| 257 |
+
"fig1.update_traces(textposition=\"bottom right\")\n",
|
| 258 |
+
"\n",
|
| 259 |
+
"# Plot volatility versus expected return for minimum risk portfolio\n",
|
| 260 |
+
"\n",
|
| 261 |
+
"fig2 = px.scatter(x=[minrisk_volatility], y=[minrisk_return],text = [\"Minimum Risk<br>Portfolio\"])\n",
|
| 262 |
+
"fig2.update_traces(textposition=\"bottom right\")\n",
|
| 263 |
+
"fig = go.Figure(data=fig1.data + fig2.data)\n",
|
| 264 |
+
"\n",
|
| 265 |
+
"# Plot efficient frontier\n",
|
| 266 |
+
"\n",
|
| 267 |
+
"fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=frontier[0], y=frontier[1], mode='lines', name='Efficient Frontier'))\n",
|
| 268 |
+
"\n",
|
| 269 |
+
"# Set x and y labels using update_xaxes and update_yaxes\n",
|
| 270 |
+
"fig.update_xaxes(title_text=\"Volatility (standard deviation)\")\n",
|
| 271 |
+
"fig.update_yaxes(title_text=\"Expected Return\")\n",
|
| 272 |
+
"\n",
|
| 273 |
+
"fig.update_layout(legend=dict(\n",
|
| 274 |
+
" yanchor=\"bottom\",\n",
|
| 275 |
+
" y=0.01,\n",
|
| 276 |
+
" xanchor=\"right\",\n",
|
| 277 |
+
" x=0.99\n",
|
| 278 |
+
"))\n",
|
| 279 |
+
"\n"
|
| 280 |
+
]
|
| 281 |
+
}
|
| 282 |
+
],
|
| 283 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 284 |
+
"kernelspec": {
|
| 285 |
+
"display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)",
|
| 286 |
+
"language": "python",
|
| 287 |
+
"name": "python3"
|
| 288 |
+
},
|
| 289 |
+
"language_info": {
|
| 290 |
+
"codemirror_mode": {
|
| 291 |
+
"name": "ipython",
|
| 292 |
+
"version": 3
|
| 293 |
+
},
|
| 294 |
+
"file_extension": ".py",
|
| 295 |
+
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
|
| 296 |
+
"name": "python",
|
| 297 |
+
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
|
| 298 |
+
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
|
| 299 |
+
"version": "3.11.4"
|
| 300 |
+
}
|
| 301 |
+
},
|
| 302 |
+
"nbformat": 4,
|
| 303 |
+
"nbformat_minor": 4
|
| 304 |
+
}
|
requirements.txt
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
manganite
|
| 2 |
+
yfinance
|
| 3 |
+
numpy
|
| 4 |
+
pandas
|
| 5 |
+
plotly
|
| 6 |
+
gurobipy
|
| 7 |
+
scipy
|