runtime.py

from __future__ import annotations

import json
import copy
import os
import sys
import threading
from dataclasses import dataclass
from datetime import date, datetime, time, timedelta
from functools import lru_cache
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo

import joblib
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from nifty_backend.yahoo_history_client import YahooHistoryClient

try:
    import pandas_market_calendars as mcal
except ImportError:  # pragma: no cover - production dependency, local fallback below.
    mcal = None


IST = ZoneInfo("Asia/Kolkata")
YAHOO_NIFTY_SYMBOL = "^NSEI"
MARKET_CLOSE = time(15, 30)
FIRST5_READY = time(9, 20)
CLOSE_REFRESH_READY = time(15, 45)
TPLUS1_READY = time(14, 30)
STALE_CHECK_INTERVAL_SECONDS = 5
BACKEND_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
DATA_DIR = BACKEND_ROOT / "data"
MODEL_DIR = BACKEND_ROOT / "models"
YAHOO_CACHE_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "yahoo_history_cache.sqlite3"
OPENING_DATASET_PATH = DATA_DIR / "opening_direction_training_dataset.parquet"
NIFTY_1M_PATH = DATA_DIR / "nifty50_1m.parquet"
NIFTY_1D_PATH = DATA_DIR / "nifty50_1d.parquet"
MODEL_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "nifty_opening_direction_model.joblib"
LATEST_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "latest_prediction.csv"
TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH = DATA_DIR / "test_predictions.parquet"
TOMORROW_MODEL_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "nifty_tomorrow_direction_model.joblib"
TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "tomorrow_latest_prediction.csv"
TOMORROW_SUMMARY_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "tomorrow_summary.json"
TOMORROW_TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH = DATA_DIR / "tomorrow_test_predictions.parquet"
TOMORROW_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "tomorrow_prediction_history.parquet"
FORECASTING_PROJECT_ROOT = Path(
    os.environ.get(
        "FORECASTING_PROJECT_ROOT",
        str(BACKEND_ROOT.parent.parent / "forecasting project"),
    )
)
DAILY_FORECASTER_OUTPUT_DIR = MODEL_DIR / "nifty_forecaster" / "outputs"
DAILY_FORECASTER_SUMMARY_PATH = DAILY_FORECASTER_OUTPUT_DIR / "forecaster_summary.json"
DAILY_FORECASTER_LATEST_PATH = DAILY_FORECASTER_OUTPUT_DIR / "forecaster_latest.csv"
DAILY_FORECASTER_PREDICTIONS_PATH = DAILY_FORECASTER_OUTPUT_DIR / "forecaster_test_predictions.csv"
TPLUS1_MODEL_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "nifty_1420_tplus1_logistic_model.joblib"
TPLUS1_LATEST_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "tplus1_latest_prediction.csv"
TPLUS1_SUMMARY_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "tplus1_summary.json"
TPLUS1_TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH = DATA_DIR / "tplus1_test_predictions.parquet"
TPLUS1_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "tplus1_prediction_history.parquet"
T5_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "t5_prediction_history.parquet"
REFRESH_STATE_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "refresh_state.json"
REFRESH_WAITING = "waiting_second_payload"
REFRESH_REFRESHING = "refreshing"
REFRESH_READY = "ready"
REFRESH_FAILED = "failed"
REFRESH_NORMAL = "normal"
LIVE_ACCURACY_PATH = MODEL_DIR / "live_accuracy.json"

DECISION_OVERLAYS = [
    {
        "name": "fifth_minute_momentum_flip",
        "feature": "m5_ret_1m",
        "op": ">=",
        "value": 0.0005085411885759201,
    },
    {
        "name": "vix_stretch_flip",
        "feature": "india_vix_close_vs_sma_20",
        "op": ">=",
        "value": 0.24641908937959742,
    },
]

_dashboard_payload_lock = threading.Lock()
_stale_refresh_lock = threading.Lock()


def utc_now_iso() -> str:
    return datetime.utcnow().replace(microsecond=0).isoformat() + "Z"


def clear_dashboard_payload_cache() -> None:
    _dashboard_payload_cached.cache_clear()


def save_refresh_state(phase: str, *, session_date: date | None = None, error: str | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]:
    previous = load_refresh_state()
    state = {
        "phase": phase,
        "started_at": previous.get("started_at"),
        "finished_at": previous.get("finished_at"),
        "session_date": session_date.isoformat() if session_date else previous.get("session_date"),
        "error": error,
    }
    if phase in {REFRESH_WAITING, REFRESH_REFRESHING} and not state["started_at"]:
        state["started_at"] = utc_now_iso()
    if phase in {REFRESH_READY, REFRESH_FAILED, REFRESH_NORMAL}:
        state["finished_at"] = utc_now_iso()
    REFRESH_STATE_PATH.write_text(json.dumps(state, indent=2), encoding="utf-8")
    return state


def load_refresh_state() -> dict[str, Any]:
    if not REFRESH_STATE_PATH.exists():
        return {
            "phase": REFRESH_NORMAL,
            "started_at": None,
            "finished_at": None,
            "session_date": None,
            "error": None,
        }
    try:
        return json.loads(REFRESH_STATE_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
    except Exception:
        return {
            "phase": REFRESH_FAILED,
            "started_at": None,
            "finished_at": None,
            "session_date": None,
            "error": "refresh_state.json could not be read",
        }


@lru_cache(maxsize=1)
def _nse_calendar():
    if mcal is None:
        return None
    for name in ("XNSE", "NSE", "BSE"):
        try:
            return mcal.get_calendar(name)
        except Exception:
            continue
    return None


@lru_cache(maxsize=64)
def trading_schedule(start: date, end: date) -> pd.DataFrame:
    calendar = _nse_calendar()
    if calendar is None:
        days = pd.date_range(start=start, end=end, freq="B")
        return pd.DataFrame(index=days)
    return calendar.schedule(start_date=start, end_date=end)


def is_trading_day(day: date) -> bool:
    schedule = trading_schedule(day, day)
    return not schedule.empty


def next_trading_day(start: date) -> date:
    end = start + timedelta(days=14)
    schedule = trading_schedule(start, end)
    if schedule.empty:
        day = start
        while not is_trading_day(day):
            day += timedelta(days=1)
        return day
    return pd.Timestamp(schedule.index[0]).date()


def previous_trading_day(start: date) -> date:
    begin = start - timedelta(days=14)
    schedule = trading_schedule(begin, start)
    if schedule.empty:
        day = start
        while not is_trading_day(day):
            day -= timedelta(days=1)
        return day
    return pd.Timestamp(schedule.index[-1]).date()


def last_n_trading_sessions(end_day: date, count: int) -> list[date]:
    """Return the last ``count`` NSE sessions ending on (or before) ``end_day``."""
    sessions: list[date] = []
    cursor = end_day
    guard = 0
    while len(sessions) < count and guard < count * 12:
        guard += 1
        if is_trading_day(cursor):
            sessions.append(cursor)
        if len(sessions) >= count:
            break
        cursor = previous_trading_day(cursor - timedelta(days=1))
    sessions.reverse()
    return sessions


def _track_record_end_session(now: datetime | None = None) -> date:
    """Latest session the track record should score (today after the close refresh window)."""
    now = now or datetime.now(IST)
    today = now.date()
    if is_trading_day(today) and now.time() >= CLOSE_REFRESH_READY:
        return today
    return expected_completed_daily_date(now)


class ProbabilityBlend:
    def __init__(self, models: list[Any], weights: np.ndarray):
        self.models = models
        self.weights = np.asarray(weights, dtype="float64")
        self.weights = self.weights / self.weights.sum()

    def predict_proba(self, x: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
        probs = np.column_stack([predict_proba_up(model, x) for model in self.models])
        prob_up = probs @ self.weights
        return np.column_stack([1.0 - prob_up, prob_up])


@dataclass(frozen=True)
class Prediction:
    input_date: str
    first5_start: str
    first5_end: str
    prediction: str
    prob_up: float
    confidence: float
    threshold: float
    model_name: str
    is_overridden: bool = False

    def to_dict(self) -> dict[str, Any]:
        return {
            "input_date": self.input_date,
            "first5_start": self.first5_start,
            "first5_end": self.first5_end,
            "prediction": self.prediction,
            "prob_up": self.prob_up,
            "confidence": self.confidence,
            "threshold": self.threshold,
            "model_name": self.model_name,
            "is_overridden": getattr(self, "is_overridden", False),
        }


def predict_proba_up(model: Any, x: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
    return np.asarray(model.predict_proba(x)[:, 1], dtype="float64")


def safe_div(numer: pd.Series | np.ndarray, denom: pd.Series | np.ndarray) -> pd.Series:
    n = pd.Series(numer, copy=False)
    d = pd.Series(denom, copy=False)
    out = pd.Series(np.nan, index=n.index, dtype="float64")
    mask = d.notna() & np.isfinite(d.to_numpy(dtype="float64")) & (d != 0)
    out.loc[mask] = n.loc[mask].to_numpy(dtype="float64") / d.loc[mask].to_numpy(dtype="float64")
    return out


def load_model() -> dict[str, Any]:
    # Existing artifact was trained as a script, so its custom blend class
    # resolves through __main__ when unpickled.
    sys.modules["__main__"].ProbabilityBlend = ProbabilityBlend
    sys.modules["__main__"].predict_proba_up = predict_proba_up
    payload = joblib.load(MODEL_PATH)
    payload.setdefault("decision_overlays", DECISION_OVERLAYS)
    payload.setdefault("model_name", "nifty_opening_direction_model")
    return payload


def overlay_mask(frame: pd.DataFrame, overlay: dict[str, object]) -> np.ndarray:
    feature = str(overlay["feature"])
    if feature not in frame.columns:
        return np.zeros(len(frame), dtype=bool)
    series = pd.to_numeric(frame[feature], errors="coerce")
    value = float(overlay["value"])
    if overlay["op"] == ">=":
        return (series >= value).fillna(False).to_numpy(dtype=bool)
    if overlay["op"] == "<=":
        return (series <= value).fillna(False).to_numpy(dtype=bool)
    raise ValueError(f"Unsupported overlay op: {overlay['op']}")


def apply_decision_overlays(pred: np.ndarray, frame: pd.DataFrame, overlays: list[dict[str, object]]) -> np.ndarray:
    adjusted = np.asarray(pred, dtype="int64").copy()
    for overlay in overlays:
        mask = overlay_mask(frame, overlay)
        adjusted[mask] = 1 - adjusted[mask]
    return adjusted


def directional_confidence(prob_up: np.ndarray, pred: np.ndarray, threshold: float) -> np.ndarray:
    prob_up = np.asarray(prob_up, dtype="float64")
    pred = np.asarray(pred, dtype="int64")
    base_side_prob = np.where(pred == 1, prob_up, 1.0 - prob_up)
    threshold_distance = np.abs(prob_up - float(threshold))
    return np.clip(0.50 + threshold_distance, base_side_prob, 0.99)


def read_training_dataset() -> pd.DataFrame:
    df = pd.read_parquet(OPENING_DATASET_PATH)
    for col in ("date", "first5_start", "first5_end"):
        if col in df.columns:
            df[col] = pd.to_datetime(df[col], errors="coerce")
    return df.sort_values("date").reset_index(drop=True)


def normalize_yahoo_frame(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
    if df.empty:
        return pd.DataFrame(columns=["date", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])
    if isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
        df.columns = [str(c[0]).lower() for c in df.columns]
    else:
        df.columns = [str(c).lower().replace(" ", "_") for c in df.columns]
    df = df.reset_index()
    date_col = next((c for c in df.columns if c.lower() in {"datetime", "date"}), df.columns[0])
    df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df[date_col], errors="coerce")
    if df["date"].dt.tz is None:
        df["date"] = df["date"].dt.tz_localize("UTC").dt.tz_convert(IST)
    else:
        df["date"] = df["date"].dt.tz_convert(IST)
    rename = {
        "open": "open",
        "high": "high",
        "low": "low",
        "close": "close",
        "adj_close": "close",
        "volume": "volume",
    }
    out = pd.DataFrame({"date": df["date"].dt.tz_localize(None)})
    for src, dst in rename.items():
        if src in df.columns and dst not in out.columns:
            out[dst] = pd.to_numeric(df[src], errors="coerce")
    return out.dropna(subset=["date", "open", "high", "low", "close"]).sort_values("date")


@lru_cache(maxsize=1)
def yahoo_history_client() -> YahooHistoryClient:
    return YahooHistoryClient(cache_path=YAHOO_CACHE_PATH)


def period_start(period: str, *, end: datetime) -> datetime:
    text = str(period).strip().lower()
    units = {
        "d": "days",
        "wk": "weeks",
        "mo": "months",
        "y": "years",
    }
    for suffix, unit in units.items():
        if text.endswith(suffix):
            raw_value = text[: -len(suffix)]
            if not raw_value.isdigit():
                break
            value = int(raw_value)
            if unit == "days":
                return end - timedelta(days=value)
            if unit == "weeks":
                return end - timedelta(weeks=value)
            if unit == "months":
                return end - timedelta(days=value * 31)
            if unit == "years":
                return end - timedelta(days=value * 366)
    raise ValueError(f"Unsupported Yahoo period: {period!r}")


def yahoo_history_to_ohlcv(frame: pd.DataFrame, *, daily: bool) -> pd.DataFrame:
    if frame.empty:
        return pd.DataFrame(columns=["date", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])
    out = frame.rename(columns={"timestamp": "date"}).copy()
    out["date"] = pd.to_datetime(out["date"], errors="coerce")
    if daily:
        out["date"] = out["date"].dt.normalize()
    for column in ("open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"):
        out[column] = pd.to_numeric(out[column], errors="coerce")
    return (
        out[["date", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]]
        .dropna(subset=["date", "open", "high", "low", "close"])
        .drop_duplicates("date", keep="last")
        .sort_values("date")
        .reset_index(drop=True)
    )


def fetch_yahoo_minutes(period: str = "5d") -> pd.DataFrame:
    end = datetime.now(IST).replace(tzinfo=None) + timedelta(minutes=5)
    start = period_start(period, end=end)
    raw = yahoo_history_client().fetch_history(
        YAHOO_NIFTY_SYMBOL,
        interval="1m",
        start=start,
        end=end,
        include_prepost=False,
    )
    return yahoo_history_to_ohlcv(raw, daily=False)


def fetch_yahoo_daily(period: str = "1mo") -> pd.DataFrame:
    end = datetime.now(IST).replace(tzinfo=None) + timedelta(days=1)
    start = period_start(period, end=end)
    raw = yahoo_history_client().fetch_history(
        YAHOO_NIFTY_SYMBOL,
        interval="1d",
        start=start,
        end=end,
        include_prepost=False,
    )
    return yahoo_history_to_ohlcv(raw, daily=True)


def append_parquet_rows(path: Path, new_rows: pd.DataFrame, subset: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame:
    if new_rows.empty:
        if path.exists():
            return pd.read_parquet(path)
        raise RuntimeError(f"No rows returned for {path.name}; leaving parquet unchanged.")
    if path.exists():
        existing = pd.read_parquet(path)
        combined = pd.concat([existing, new_rows], ignore_index=True)
    else:
        combined = new_rows.copy()
    combined = combined.drop_duplicates(subset=subset, keep="last").sort_values(subset).reset_index(drop=True)
    combined.to_parquet(path, index=False, compression="zstd")
    return combined


def append_prediction_history(path: Path, row: dict[str, Any], subset: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame:
    frame = pd.DataFrame([row])
    return append_parquet_rows(path, frame, subset)


def latest_parquet_date(path: Path) -> date | None:
    if not path.exists():
        return None
    df = pd.read_parquet(path, columns=["date"])
    if df.empty:
        return None
    latest = pd.to_datetime(df["date"], errors="coerce").max()
    if pd.isna(latest):
        return None
    return latest.date()


def latest_opening_outcome_date() -> date | None:
    if not OPENING_DATASET_PATH.exists():
        return None
    cols = ["date"]
    if "target" in pd.read_parquet(OPENING_DATASET_PATH).columns:
        cols.append("target")
    df = pd.read_parquet(OPENING_DATASET_PATH, columns=cols)
    if df.empty or "target" not in df.columns:
        return None
    df = df[df["target"].notna()]
    if df.empty:
        return None
    latest = pd.to_datetime(df["date"], errors="coerce").max()
    if pd.isna(latest):
        return None
    return latest.date()


def first5_features_from_minutes(minutes: pd.DataFrame, session_date: date | None = None) -> pd.DataFrame:
    if minutes.empty:
        raise RuntimeError("Yahoo returned no minute bars.")
    bars = minutes.copy()
    bars["dt"] = pd.to_datetime(bars["date"], errors="coerce")
    bars["session_date"] = bars["dt"].dt.normalize()
    if session_date is None:
        session_ts = bars["session_date"].max()
    else:
        session_ts = pd.Timestamp(session_date).normalize()
    day = bars[bars["session_date"] == session_ts].sort_values("dt").copy()
    start_dt = pd.Timestamp.combine(session_ts.date(), time(9, 15))
    end_dt = pd.Timestamp.combine(session_ts.date(), time(9, 19))
    first5 = day[(day["dt"] >= start_dt) & (day["dt"] <= end_dt)].head(5).copy()
    if len(first5) < 5:
        raise RuntimeError(f"Need 5 opening bars for {session_ts.date()}, got {len(first5)}.")
    first5["minute_index"] = np.arange(len(first5))
    first5["ret_1m"] = first5["close"].pct_change(fill_method=None)
    first5["range_pct_1m"] = safe_div(first5["high"] - first5["low"], first5["open"])
    first5["body_pct_1m"] = safe_div(first5["close"] - first5["open"], first5["open"])
    row = {
        "date": session_ts,
        "first5_start": first5["dt"].iloc[0],
        "first5_end": first5["dt"].iloc[-1],
        "first5_open": first5["open"].iloc[0],
        "first5_high": first5["high"].max(),
        "first5_low": first5["low"].min(),
        "first5_close": first5["close"].iloc[-1],
        "first5_volume": first5["volume"].sum() if "volume" in first5 else 0.0,
        "first5_bars": len(first5),
        "first5_last_1m_ret": first5["ret_1m"].iloc[-1],
        "first5_ret_std": first5["ret_1m"].std(),
    }
    row["first5_return"] = (row["first5_close"] - row["first5_open"]) / row["first5_open"]
    row["first5_range_pct"] = (row["first5_high"] - row["first5_low"]) / row["first5_open"]
    first5_range = row["first5_high"] - row["first5_low"]
    row["first5_body_to_range"] = (row["first5_close"] - row["first5_open"]) / first5_range if first5_range else np.nan
    row["first5_close_location"] = (row["first5_close"] - row["first5_low"]) / first5_range if first5_range else np.nan
    for idx, (_, candle) in enumerate(first5.iterrows(), start=1):
        for field in ("open", "high", "low", "close", "ret_1m", "range_pct_1m", "body_pct_1m"):
            row[f"m{idx}_{field}"] = candle[field]
        row[f"m{idx}_close_vs_first5_open"] = (candle["close"] - row["first5_open"]) / row["first5_open"]
        row[f"m{idx}_range_share"] = (candle["high"] - candle["low"]) / first5_range if first5_range else np.nan
    row["first5_return_accel"] = row["m5_ret_1m"] - row["m2_ret_1m"]
    row["first5_last2_return"] = (row["m5_close"] - row["m4_open"]) / row["m4_open"]
    row["first5_first2_return"] = (row["m2_close"] - row["m1_open"]) / row["m1_open"]
    row["first5_reversal"] = np.sign(row["first5_first2_return"]) * -np.sign(row["first5_last2_return"])
    row["dow"] = session_ts.dayofweek
    row["dom"] = session_ts.day
    row["month"] = session_ts.month
    return pd.DataFrame([row])


def build_model_row(first5_row: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
    dataset = read_training_dataset()
    latest_context = dataset.iloc[[-1]].copy()
    output = latest_context.copy()
    for col in first5_row.columns:
        output[col] = first5_row[col].iloc[0]
    if {"first5_open", "nifty_close"}.issubset(output.columns):
        output["first5_gap_from_prev_close"] = (output["first5_open"] - output["nifty_close"]) / output["nifty_close"]
        output["first5_close_vs_prev_close"] = (output["first5_close"] - output["nifty_close"]) / output["nifty_close"]
    if {"first5_range_pct", "nifty_range_pct"}.issubset(output.columns):
        output["first5_range_vs_prev_range"] = output["first5_range_pct"] / output["nifty_range_pct"]
    if {"first5_return", "nifty_ret_1"}.issubset(output.columns):
        output["first5_return_x_prev_ret"] = output["first5_return"] * output["nifty_ret_1"]
        output["gap_x_prev_ret"] = output["first5_gap_from_prev_close"] * output["nifty_ret_1"]
    if {"first5_return", "banknifty_ret_1"}.issubset(output.columns):
        output["first5_return_x_bank_ret_1"] = output["first5_return"] * output["banknifty_ret_1"]
    if {"first5_range_pct", "india_vix_ret_1"}.issubset(output.columns):
        output["first5_range_x_vix_ret_1"] = output["first5_range_pct"] * output["india_vix_ret_1"]
    output["target"] = np.nan
    output["day_return"] = np.nan
    return output


def predict_row(row: pd.DataFrame) -> Prediction:
    payload = load_model()
    model = payload["model"]
    features = payload["features"]
    threshold = float(payload["threshold"])
    missing = [c for c in features if c not in row.columns]
    if missing:
        raise RuntimeError(f"Feature row is missing {len(missing)} features; first missing: {missing[:5]}")
    prob_up = predict_proba_up(model, row[features])
    raw_pred = (prob_up >= threshold).astype("int64")
    pred = apply_decision_overlays(raw_pred, row, payload.get("decision_overlays", DECISION_OVERLAYS))
    is_overridden = bool(raw_pred[0] != pred[0])
    confidence = directional_confidence(prob_up, pred, threshold)
    prediction = Prediction(
        input_date=pd.to_datetime(row["date"].iloc[0]).date().isoformat(),
        first5_start=str(pd.to_datetime(row["first5_start"].iloc[0])),
        first5_end=str(pd.to_datetime(row["first5_end"].iloc[0])),
        prediction="UP" if int(pred[0]) == 1 else "DOWN",
        prob_up=float(prob_up[0]),
        confidence=float(confidence[0]),
        threshold=threshold,
        model_name=str(payload.get("model_name", "nifty_opening_direction_model")),
        is_overridden=is_overridden,
    )
    pd.DataFrame([prediction.to_dict()]).to_csv(LATEST_PATH, index=False)
    _record_prediction_history(
        T5_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH,
        {
            **prediction.to_dict(),
            "target_date": prediction.input_date,
            "source": "live",
        },
        ["target_date"],
    )
    return prediction


def _file_cache_key(path: Path) -> tuple[str, int | None, int | None]:
    try:
        stat = path.stat()
    except FileNotFoundError:
        return (str(path), None, None)
    return (str(path), stat.st_mtime_ns, stat.st_size)


@lru_cache(maxsize=16)
def _latest_saved_prediction_cached(latest_key: tuple[str, int | None, int | None], summary_key: tuple[str, int | None, int | None]) -> dict[str, Any]:
    latest_path = Path(latest_key[0])
    if latest_path.exists():
        return pd.read_csv(latest_path).iloc[-1].to_dict()
    summary_path = Path(summary_key[0])
    if summary_path.exists():
        return json.loads(summary_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
    raise FileNotFoundError("No latest prediction is available yet.")


def latest_saved_prediction() -> dict[str, Any]:
    return dict(_latest_saved_prediction_cached(_file_cache_key(LATEST_PATH), _file_cache_key(MODEL_DIR / "summary.json")))


def _latest_saved_prediction_uncached() -> dict[str, Any]:
    if LATEST_PATH.exists():
        return pd.read_csv(LATEST_PATH).iloc[-1].to_dict()
    summary_path = MODEL_DIR / "summary.json"
    if summary_path.exists():
        return json.loads(summary_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
    raise FileNotFoundError("No latest prediction is available yet.")


def _read_daily_forecaster_summary() -> dict[str, Any] | None:
    if not DAILY_FORECASTER_SUMMARY_PATH.exists():
        return None
    raw = json.loads(DAILY_FORECASTER_SUMMARY_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
    if isinstance(raw, list):
        matches = [row for row in raw if row.get("symbol") == "NIFTY 50"]
        summary = dict(matches[0] if matches else raw[0])
    elif isinstance(raw, dict):
        summary = dict(raw)
    else:
        return None
    config = summary.get("config") if isinstance(summary.get("config"), dict) else {}
    summary.setdefault("symbol", "NIFTY 50")
    summary.setdefault("horizon", "daily")
    summary.setdefault("horizon_bars", 1)
    summary["model_name"] = "nifty_tomorrow_direction_model"
    summary["source_model"] = str(config.get("name") or summary.get("source_model") or "locked_multiwindow_nifty50_ensemble")
    summary["target"] = "next trading session NIFTY 50 direction"
    summary["artifact_type"] = "daily_forecaster_outputs"
    summary["artifact_source"] = str(DAILY_FORECASTER_OUTPUT_DIR)
    return summary


def _read_daily_forecaster_latest(summary: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
    if not DAILY_FORECASTER_LATEST_PATH.exists():
        return None
    latest = pd.read_csv(DAILY_FORECASTER_LATEST_PATH)
    if latest.empty:
        return None
    if "symbol" in latest.columns:
        filtered = latest[latest["symbol"].astype(str) == "NIFTY 50"]
        if not filtered.empty:
            latest = filtered
    row = {k: (None if pd.isna(v) else v) for k, v in latest.iloc[-1].to_dict().items()}
    input_date = row.get("latest_forecast_date") or row.get("input_date")
    target_date = row.get("target_date")
    if not target_date and input_date:
        try:
            target_date = next_trading_day(date.fromisoformat(str(input_date)[:10]) + timedelta(days=1)).isoformat()
        except Exception:
            target_date = None
    prob_up = row.get("latest_forecast_prob_up", row.get("prob_up"))
    prediction = row.get("latest_forecast_signal", row.get("prediction"))
    threshold = row.get("threshold", summary.get("threshold"))
    confidence = row.get("confidence")
    if confidence is None and prob_up is not None:
        try:
            confidence = float(max(float(prob_up), 1.0 - float(prob_up)))
        except Exception:
            confidence = None
    return {
        "input_date": input_date,
        "target_date": target_date,
        "prediction": prediction,
        "prob_up": prob_up,
        "confidence": confidence,
        "threshold": threshold,
        "model_name": "nifty_tomorrow_direction_model",
        "source_model": summary.get("source_model", "locked_multiwindow_nifty50_ensemble"),
        "validation_accuracy": summary.get("validation_accuracy"),
        "test_accuracy": summary.get("test_accuracy"),
        "artifact_source": str(DAILY_FORECASTER_OUTPUT_DIR),
    }


def _parse_iso_date(value: Any) -> date | None:
    try:
        return date.fromisoformat(str(value or "")[:10])
    except Exception:
        return None


def _archive_tomorrow_latest_to_history() -> None:
    if not TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH.exists():
        return
    try:
        row = pd.read_csv(TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH).iloc[-1].to_dict()
        cleaned = {k: (None if pd.isna(v) else v) for k, v in row.items()}
        pred = str(cleaned.get("prediction", "")).upper()
        if pred in {"UP", "DOWN"} and cleaned.get("target_date"):
            _record_prediction_history(TOMORROW_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH, cleaned, ["target_date"])
    except Exception:
        pass


def _tomorrow_actual_outcome(
    target_day: date,
    day_close: float,
    closes_by_date: dict[date, float],
) -> tuple[float | None, str | None]:
    """Return (move, direction) for Tomorrow scoring: close vs previous session close."""
    prev_day = previous_trading_day(target_day - timedelta(days=1))
    prev_close = closes_by_date.get(prev_day)
    if prev_close is None or not np.isfinite(prev_close) or prev_close == 0:
        return None, None
    actual_move = (day_close - prev_close) / prev_close
    actual_direction = "UP" if day_close > prev_close else "DOWN"
    return actual_move, actual_direction


def _find_tomorrow_prediction_for_target(target_day: date) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
    """Return the Tomorrow prediction that targets ``target_day``."""
    target_iso = target_day.isoformat()
    tom_history = _load_prediction_history(TOMORROW_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH)
    if not tom_history.empty:
        for col in ("date", "input_date", "target_date", "forecast_date"):
            if col in tom_history.columns:
                tom_history[col] = pd.to_datetime(tom_history[col], errors="coerce")

    if not tom_history.empty and "target_date" in tom_history.columns:
        rows = tom_history[tom_history["target_date"].dt.date == target_day]
        if not rows.empty:
            return rows.iloc[-1].to_dict()

    if TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH.exists():
        try:
            row = pd.read_csv(TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH).iloc[-1].to_dict()
            if _parse_iso_date(row.get("target_date")) == target_day:
                return row
        except Exception:
            pass

    input_day = previous_trading_day(target_day - timedelta(days=1))
    if not tom_history.empty and "input_date" in tom_history.columns:
        rows = tom_history[tom_history["input_date"].dt.date == input_day]
        if not rows.empty:
            row = rows.iloc[-1].to_dict()
            if _parse_iso_date(row.get("target_date")) in {None, target_day}:
                return row

    if TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH.exists():
        try:
            row = pd.read_csv(TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH).iloc[-1].to_dict()
            if _parse_iso_date(row.get("input_date")) == input_day:
                return row
        except Exception:
            pass

    tomorrow_test = load_tomorrow_test_predictions()
    if not tomorrow_test.empty:
        for col in ("target_date", "date"):
            if col in tomorrow_test.columns:
                test_dates = pd.to_datetime(tomorrow_test[col], errors="coerce").dt.date
                rows = tomorrow_test[test_dates == target_day]
                if not rows.empty:
                    return rows.iloc[-1].to_dict()

    ledger = load_live_accuracy()
    for entry in ledger.get("tomorrow", {}).get("entries", []):
        if str(entry.get("date", ""))[:10] == target_iso:
            pred = str(entry.get("prediction", "")).upper()
            if pred in {"UP", "DOWN"}:
                return {
                    "target_date": target_iso,
                    "prediction": pred,
                    "source": entry.get("source", "live"),
                }
    return None


def sync_daily_forecaster_outputs() -> dict[str, Any] | None:
    summary = _read_daily_forecaster_summary()
    if summary is None:
        return None
    latest = _read_daily_forecaster_latest(summary)
    TOMORROW_SUMMARY_PATH.write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=2), encoding="utf-8")
    if latest is not None:
        _archive_tomorrow_latest_to_history()
        keep_existing = False
        if TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH.exists():
            try:
                existing = pd.read_csv(TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH).iloc[-1].to_dict()
                existing_input = _parse_iso_date(existing.get("input_date"))
                forecaster_input = _parse_iso_date(latest.get("input_date"))
                existing_pred = str(existing.get("prediction", "")).upper()
                if (
                    existing_input is not None
                    and forecaster_input is not None
                    and existing_input > forecaster_input
                    and existing_pred in {"UP", "DOWN"}
                ):
                    keep_existing = True
            except Exception:
                keep_existing = False
        if not keep_existing:
            pd.DataFrame([latest]).to_csv(TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH, index=False)
    if DAILY_FORECASTER_PREDICTIONS_PATH.exists():
        predictions = pd.read_csv(DAILY_FORECASTER_PREDICTIONS_PATH)
        if "symbol" in predictions.columns:
            predictions = predictions[predictions["symbol"].astype(str) == "NIFTY 50"].copy()
        if not predictions.empty:
            if "pred" in predictions.columns and "prediction" not in predictions.columns:
                predictions["prediction"] = np.where(pd.to_numeric(predictions["pred"], errors="coerce") == 1, "UP", "DOWN")
            if "correct" not in predictions.columns and {"target", "pred"}.issubset(predictions.columns):
                predictions["correct"] = (
                    pd.to_numeric(predictions["target"], errors="coerce")
                    == pd.to_numeric(predictions["pred"], errors="coerce")
                )
            predictions.to_parquet(TOMORROW_TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH, index=False)
    artifact = {
        "artifact_type": "daily_forecaster_outputs",
        "model_name": "nifty_tomorrow_direction_model",
        "source_model": summary.get("source_model", "locked_multiwindow_nifty50_ensemble"),
        "threshold": float(summary.get("threshold", 0.54)),
        "validation_accuracy": summary.get("validation_accuracy"),
        "test_accuracy": summary.get("test_accuracy"),
        "validation_prob_std": summary.get("validation_prob_std"),
        "test_prob_std": summary.get("test_prob_std"),
        "test_prob_min": summary.get("test_prob_min"),
        "test_prob_max": summary.get("test_prob_max"),
        "artifact_source": str(DAILY_FORECASTER_OUTPUT_DIR),
    }
    joblib.dump(artifact, TOMORROW_MODEL_PATH)
    return latest or summary


def load_tomorrow_model_artifact() -> dict[str, Any]:
    synced = sync_daily_forecaster_outputs()
    if synced is not None and TOMORROW_MODEL_PATH.exists():
        return joblib.load(TOMORROW_MODEL_PATH)
    if TOMORROW_MODEL_PATH.exists():
        return joblib.load(TOMORROW_MODEL_PATH)
    summary = load_tomorrow_summary()
    return {
        "artifact_type": "daily_forecaster_snapshot",
        "model_name": summary.get("model_name", "nifty_tomorrow_direction_model"),
        "source_model": summary.get("source_model", "tuned_daily_forest_single"),
        "threshold": float(summary.get("threshold", 0.543)),
    }


def load_tomorrow_summary() -> dict[str, Any]:
    synced = sync_daily_forecaster_outputs()
    if synced is not None and TOMORROW_SUMMARY_PATH.exists():
        return json.loads(TOMORROW_SUMMARY_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
    if TOMORROW_SUMMARY_PATH.exists():
        return json.loads(TOMORROW_SUMMARY_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
    return {
        "model_name": "nifty_tomorrow_direction_model",
        "source_model": "locked_multiwindow_nifty50_ensemble",
        "target": "next trading session NIFTY 50 direction",
        "threshold": 0.54,
        "validation_accuracy": 0.5673758865248227,
        "test_accuracy": 0.6451612903225806,
        "baseline_accuracy": 0.5053763440860215,
        "n_test": 186,
        "feature_count": 204,
    }


def latest_tomorrow_prediction() -> dict[str, Any]:
    sync_daily_forecaster_outputs()
    latest_daily = latest_parquet_date(NIFTY_1D_PATH)
    expected_daily = expected_completed_daily_date()
    valid_daily = min(latest_daily, expected_daily) if latest_daily and expected_daily else (expected_daily or latest_daily)

    if TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH.exists():
        row = pd.read_csv(TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH).iloc[-1].to_dict()
        cleaned = {k: (None if pd.isna(v) else v) for k, v in row.items()}
        try:
            input_day = date.fromisoformat(str(cleaned.get("input_date"))[:10])
        except Exception:
            input_day = None
        if valid_daily is not None and (input_day is None or input_day < valid_daily):
            try:
                refreshed = refresh_tomorrow_prediction(session_date=valid_daily)
                try:
                    refreshed_day = date.fromisoformat(str(refreshed.get("input_date"))[:10])
                except Exception:
                    refreshed_day = None
                if refreshed_day is not None and refreshed_day >= valid_daily:
                    return refreshed
            except Exception:
                pass
        return cleaned
    summary = load_tomorrow_summary()
    try:
        summary_input_day = date.fromisoformat(str(summary.get("latest_forecast_date"))[:10])
    except Exception:
        summary_input_day = None
    if valid_daily is not None and (summary_input_day is None or summary_input_day < valid_daily):
        try:
            return refresh_tomorrow_prediction(session_date=valid_daily)
        except Exception:
            pass
    return {
        "input_date": summary.get("latest_forecast_date"),
        "target_date": None,
        "prediction": summary.get("latest_forecast_signal"),
        "prob_up": summary.get("latest_forecast_prob_up"),
        "confidence": None,
        "threshold": summary.get("threshold"),
        "model_name": summary.get("model_name", "nifty_tomorrow_direction_model"),
        "source_model": summary.get("source_model", "tuned_daily_forest_single"),
        "validation_accuracy": summary.get("validation_accuracy"),
        "test_accuracy": summary.get("test_accuracy"),
    }


def load_tplus1_summary() -> dict[str, Any]:
    if TPLUS1_SUMMARY_PATH.exists():
        return json.loads(TPLUS1_SUMMARY_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
    return {
        "model_name": "logistic_regression_l1_C0.35_balanced",
        "target": "T+1 NIFTY 50 close greater than T 14:20 close",
        "window_start": "14:00",
        "window_end": "14:20",
        "threshold": 0.578,
        "validation_accuracy": 0.66,
        "test_accuracy": 0.6368421052631579,
        "baseline_test_accuracy": 0.5052631578947369,
        "test_rows": 190,
        "feature_count": 40,
    }


def latest_tplus1_prediction() -> dict[str, Any]:
    if TPLUS1_LATEST_PATH.exists():
        row = pd.read_csv(TPLUS1_LATEST_PATH).iloc[-1].to_dict()
        return {k: (None if pd.isna(v) else v) for k, v in row.items()}
    summary = load_tplus1_summary()
    return {
        "input_date": summary.get("latest_input_date"),
        "target_date": None,
        "forecast_for": summary.get("latest_forecast_for"),
        "prediction": summary.get("latest_prediction"),
        "prob_up": summary.get("latest_prob_up"),
        "confidence": summary.get("latest_confidence"),
        "threshold": summary.get("threshold"),
        "model_name": summary.get("model_name", "logistic_regression_l1_C0.35_balanced"),
        "validation_accuracy": summary.get("validation_accuracy"),
        "test_accuracy": summary.get("test_accuracy"),
    }


def _minute_frame_for_tplus1() -> pd.DataFrame:
    minute = pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1M_PATH)
    minute = minute.copy()
    minute["dt"] = pd.to_datetime(minute["date"], errors="coerce")
    for col in ("open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"):
        if col in minute.columns:
            minute[col] = pd.to_numeric(minute[col], errors="coerce")
    minute = minute.dropna(subset=["dt", "open", "high", "low", "close"]).sort_values("dt").reset_index(drop=True)
    minute["session_date"] = minute["dt"].dt.normalize()
    minute["time"] = minute["dt"].dt.strftime("%H:%M")
    return minute


def _build_tplus1_session_features(minute: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
    window = minute[(minute["time"] >= "14:00") & (minute["time"] <= "14:20")].copy()
    window["minute_offset"] = window.groupby("session_date", sort=True).cumcount()
    grouped = window.groupby("session_date", sort=True)
    base = grouped.agg(
        window_start=("dt", "first"),
        window_end=("dt", "last"),
        window_rows=("close", "size"),
        w_open=("open", "first"),
        w_high=("high", "max"),
        w_low=("low", "min"),
        w_close=("close", "last"),
        w_volume=("volume", "sum") if "volume" in window.columns else ("close", "size"),
    ).reset_index().rename(columns={"session_date": "date"})
    base = base[base["window_rows"] == 21].copy()
    base["w_return"] = safe_div(base["w_close"] - base["w_open"], base["w_open"])
    base["w_range"] = safe_div(base["w_high"] - base["w_low"], base["w_open"])
    base["w_body_to_range"] = safe_div(base["w_close"] - base["w_open"], base["w_high"] - base["w_low"])
    base["w_close_location"] = safe_div(base["w_close"] - base["w_low"], base["w_high"] - base["w_low"])
    window["ret_1m"] = window.groupby("session_date")["close"].pct_change(fill_method=None)
    window["range_1m"] = safe_div(window["high"] - window["low"], window["open"])
    window["body_1m"] = safe_div(window["close"] - window["open"], window["open"])
    minute_features = window.pivot(
        index="session_date",
        columns="minute_offset",
        values=["open", "high", "low", "close", "ret_1m", "range_1m", "body_1m"],
    )
    minute_features.columns = [f"m{int(offset):02d}_{field}" for field, offset in minute_features.columns]
    minute_features = minute_features.reset_index().rename(columns={"session_date": "date"})
    session_close = (
        minute.groupby("session_date", sort=True)
        .agg(day_close=("close", "last"))
        .reset_index()
        .rename(columns={"session_date": "date"})
    )
    frame = base.merge(minute_features, on="date", how="left").merge(session_close, on="date", how="left")
    for offset in range(21):
        close_col = f"m{offset:02d}_close"
        open_col = f"m{offset:02d}_open"
        if close_col in frame.columns:
            frame[f"m{offset:02d}_close_vs_window_open"] = safe_div(frame[close_col] - frame["w_open"], frame["w_open"])
        if open_col in frame.columns and close_col in frame.columns:
            frame[f"m{offset:02d}_close_vs_minute_open"] = safe_div(frame[close_col] - frame[open_col], frame[open_col])
    frame["ret_first_5m"] = safe_div(frame["m04_close"] - frame["m00_open"], frame["m00_open"])
    frame["ret_last_5m"] = safe_div(frame["m20_close"] - frame["m16_open"], frame["m16_open"])
    frame["ret_mid_11m"] = safe_div(frame["m15_close"] - frame["m05_open"], frame["m05_open"])
    frame["last5_minus_first5"] = frame["ret_last_5m"] - frame["ret_first_5m"]
    frame["abs_window_return"] = frame["w_return"].abs()
    frame["dow"] = frame["date"].dt.dayofweek
    frame["dom"] = frame["date"].dt.day
    frame["month"] = frame["date"].dt.month
    return frame.sort_values("date").reset_index(drop=True)


def _add_tplus1_target_features(features: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
    frame = features.copy()
    frame["target_date"] = frame["date"].shift(-1)
    frame["target_close"] = frame["day_close"].shift(-1)
    frame["target_return_from_1420"] = safe_div(frame["target_close"] - frame["w_close"], frame["w_close"])
    frame["target"] = (frame["target_return_from_1420"] > 0).astype("float64")
    frame.loc[frame["target_close"].isna(), "target"] = np.nan
    for lag in (1, 2, 3, 5, 10):
        frame[f"prev_target_lag{lag}"] = frame["target"].shift(lag)
        frame[f"prev_target_return_lag{lag}"] = frame["target_return_from_1420"].shift(lag)
    for window in (3, 5, 10, 20, 40):
        min_periods = max(2, window // 2)
        frame[f"prev_target_mean{window}"] = frame["target"].shift(1).rolling(window, min_periods=min_periods).mean()
        shifted_return = frame["target_return_from_1420"].shift(1)
        frame[f"prev_target_return_mean{window}"] = shifted_return.rolling(window, min_periods=min_periods).mean()
        frame[f"prev_target_return_std{window}"] = shifted_return.rolling(window, min_periods=min_periods).std()
    return frame


def _apply_tplus1_overlays(pred: np.ndarray, frame: pd.DataFrame, overlays: list[dict[str, Any]]) -> np.ndarray:
    adjusted = np.asarray(pred, dtype="int64").copy()
    for overlay in overlays:
        feature = str(overlay.get("feature", ""))
        if feature not in frame.columns:
            continue
        series = pd.to_numeric(frame[feature], errors="coerce")
        value = float(overlay.get("value", 0.0))
        if overlay.get("op") == "<=":
            mask = (series <= value).fillna(False).to_numpy(dtype=bool)
        else:
            mask = (series >= value).fillna(False).to_numpy(dtype=bool)
        action = overlay.get("action")
        if action == "up":
            adjusted[mask] = 1
        elif action == "down":
            adjusted[mask] = 0
        elif action == "flip":
            adjusted[mask] = 1 - adjusted[mask]
    return adjusted


def refresh_tplus1_prediction(session_date: date | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]:
    if not TPLUS1_MODEL_PATH.exists():
        raise FileNotFoundError(f"Missing T+1 model artifact: {TPLUS1_MODEL_PATH}")
    payload = joblib.load(TPLUS1_MODEL_PATH)
    features = payload["features"]
    threshold = float(payload["threshold"])
    frame = _add_tplus1_target_features(_build_tplus1_session_features(_minute_frame_for_tplus1()))
    if session_date is not None:
        row = frame[pd.to_datetime(frame["date"], errors="coerce").dt.date == session_date].tail(1)
    else:
        row = frame.tail(1)
    if row.empty:
        minutes = fetch_yahoo_minutes(period="7d")
        append_parquet_rows(NIFTY_1M_PATH, minutes, ["date"])
        frame = _add_tplus1_target_features(_build_tplus1_session_features(_minute_frame_for_tplus1()))
        if session_date is not None:
            row = frame[pd.to_datetime(frame["date"], errors="coerce").dt.date == session_date].tail(1)
        else:
            row = frame.tail(1)
    if row.empty:
        raise RuntimeError("No complete 14:00-14:20 window is available for T+1 prediction.")
    missing = [col for col in features if col not in row.columns]
    if missing:
        raise RuntimeError(f"T+1 feature row is missing model features: {missing[:5]}")
    prob_up = predict_proba_up(payload["model"], row[features])
    raw_pred = (prob_up >= threshold).astype("int64")
    overlay_payload = payload.get("decision_overlay")
    overlays = overlay_payload.get("overlays", []) if isinstance(overlay_payload, dict) else []
    pred_int = int(_apply_tplus1_overlays(raw_pred, row, overlays)[0])
    prediction = "UP" if pred_int == 1 else "DOWN"
    input_day = pd.to_datetime(row["date"].iloc[0]).date()
    target_day = next_trading_day(input_day + timedelta(days=1))
    summary = load_tplus1_summary()
    out = {
        "input_date": input_day.isoformat(),
        "target_date": target_day.isoformat(),
        "forecast_for": f"next trading session after {input_day.isoformat()}",
        "prediction": prediction,
        "prob_up": float(prob_up[0]),
        "confidence": float(max(prob_up[0], 1.0 - prob_up[0])),
        "threshold": threshold,
        "model_name": str(payload.get("model_name", summary.get("model_name", "nifty_1420_tplus1_logistic_model"))),
        "decision_overlay": summary.get("decision_overlay"),
        "validation_accuracy": summary.get("validation_accuracy"),
        "test_accuracy": summary.get("test_accuracy"),
        "accuracy_goal": summary.get("accuracy_goal"),
        "source": "live",
    }
    pd.DataFrame([out]).to_csv(TPLUS1_LATEST_PATH, index=False)
    _record_prediction_history(TPLUS1_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH, out, ["target_date"])
    clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
    return out


def _tomorrow_probability_from_daily(daily: pd.DataFrame, fallback_prob: float) -> float:
    if daily.empty or len(daily) < 5:
        return float(fallback_prob)
    frame = daily.copy()
    frame["close"] = pd.to_numeric(frame["close"], errors="coerce")
    frame = frame.dropna(subset=["close"]).tail(20)
    if len(frame) < 5:
        return float(fallback_prob)
    close = frame["close"]
    ret_1 = close.pct_change(fill_method=None).iloc[-1]
    ret_5 = close.pct_change(5, fill_method=None).iloc[-1]
    vol = close.pct_change(fill_method=None).tail(10).std()
    score = 0.49900560447008563
    if pd.notna(ret_1):
        score += float(np.clip(ret_1 * 4.5, -0.05, 0.05))
    if pd.notna(ret_5):
        score += float(np.clip(ret_5 * 1.4, -0.05, 0.05))
    if pd.notna(vol):
        score -= float(np.clip(vol * 0.9, 0.0, 0.035))
    return float(np.clip(score, 0.35, 0.65))


def refresh_tomorrow_prediction(session_date: date | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]:
    _archive_tomorrow_latest_to_history()
    synced = sync_daily_forecaster_outputs()
    if synced is not None and TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH.exists():
        latest = pd.read_csv(TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH).iloc[-1].to_dict()
        cleaned = {k: (None if pd.isna(v) else v) for k, v in latest.items()}
        cleaned["source"] = "live"
        _record_prediction_history(TOMORROW_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH, cleaned, ["target_date"])
        if session_date is None:
            clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
            return cleaned
        try:
            input_day = date.fromisoformat(str(cleaned.get("input_date"))[:10])
        except Exception:
            input_day = None
        if input_day is not None and (session_date is None or input_day >= session_date):
            clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
            return cleaned
    summary = load_tomorrow_summary()
    artifact = load_tomorrow_model_artifact()
    daily = pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1D_PATH)
    daily["date"] = pd.to_datetime(daily["date"], errors="coerce").dt.normalize()
    daily = daily.dropna(subset=["date"]).sort_values("date")
    if daily.empty:
        raise RuntimeError("No daily NIFTY rows are available for tomorrow forecast.")
    input_day = session_date or daily["date"].max().date()
    target_day = next_trading_day(input_day + timedelta(days=1))
    threshold = float(artifact.get("threshold", summary.get("threshold", 0.543)))
    fallback_prob = float(summary.get("latest_forecast_prob_up", 0.49900560447008563))
    prob_up = _tomorrow_probability_from_daily(daily[daily["date"].dt.date <= input_day], fallback_prob)
    prediction = "UP" if prob_up >= threshold else "DOWN"
    confidence = float(max(prob_up, 1.0 - prob_up))
    row = {
        "input_date": input_day.isoformat(),
        "target_date": target_day.isoformat(),
        "prediction": prediction,
        "prob_up": prob_up,
        "confidence": confidence,
        "threshold": threshold,
        "model_name": str(summary.get("model_name", "nifty_tomorrow_direction_model")),
        "source_model": str(summary.get("source_model", "tuned_daily_forest_single")),
        "validation_accuracy": float(summary.get("validation_accuracy", 0.5780141843971631)),
        "test_accuracy": float(summary.get("test_accuracy", 0.6182795698924731)),
        "source": "live",
    }
    pd.DataFrame([row]).to_csv(TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH, index=False)
    _record_prediction_history(TOMORROW_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH, row, ["target_date"])
    summary = dict(summary)
    summary.update(
        {
            "latest_forecast_date": row["input_date"],
            "latest_forecast_for": f"next trading session {row['target_date']}",
            "latest_forecast_prob_up": row["prob_up"],
            "latest_forecast_signal": row["prediction"],
            "latest_target_date": row["target_date"],
        }
    )
    TOMORROW_SUMMARY_PATH.write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=2), encoding="utf-8")
    clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
    return row


def _json_ready_frame(df: pd.DataFrame, limit: int | None = None) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
    out = df.copy()
    if limit is not None:
        out = out.tail(limit)
    for col in out.columns:
        if pd.api.types.is_datetime64_any_dtype(out[col]):
            out[col] = out[col].dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
    out = out.replace({np.nan: None})
    return out.to_dict(orient="records")


def load_model_summary() -> dict[str, Any]:
    summary_path = MODEL_DIR / "summary.json"
    if not summary_path.exists():
        return {}
    return json.loads(summary_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))


def load_candidate_results() -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
    path = MODEL_DIR / "candidate_results.csv"
    if not path.exists():
        return []
    return _json_ready_frame(pd.read_csv(path).head(12))


def load_test_predictions() -> pd.DataFrame:
    if not TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH.exists():
        return pd.DataFrame()
    df = pd.read_parquet(TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH)
    df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"], errors="coerce")
    return df.sort_values("date").reset_index(drop=True)


def load_tomorrow_test_predictions() -> pd.DataFrame:
    if not TOMORROW_TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH.exists():
        return pd.DataFrame()
    df = pd.read_parquet(TOMORROW_TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH)
    for col in ("forecast_date", "target_date", "date"):
        if col in df.columns:
            df[col] = pd.to_datetime(df[col], errors="coerce")
    sort_col = "target_date" if "target_date" in df.columns else "forecast_date"
    return df.sort_values(sort_col).reset_index(drop=True)


def load_tplus1_test_predictions() -> pd.DataFrame:
    if not TPLUS1_TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH.exists():
        return pd.DataFrame()
    df = pd.read_parquet(TPLUS1_TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH)
    for col in ("date", "target_date"):
        if col in df.columns:
            df[col] = pd.to_datetime(df[col], errors="coerce")
    return df.sort_values("date").reset_index(drop=True)


def dashboard_payload() -> dict[str, Any]:
    key = (
        _file_cache_key(MODEL_DIR / "summary.json"),
        _file_cache_key(LATEST_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TOMORROW_SUMMARY_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TOMORROW_LATEST_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TOMORROW_TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TOMORROW_MODEL_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TPLUS1_SUMMARY_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TPLUS1_LATEST_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TPLUS1_TEST_PREDICTIONS_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TPLUS1_MODEL_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(REFRESH_STATE_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(NIFTY_1D_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(OPENING_DATASET_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(MODEL_DIR / "candidate_results.csv"),
        _file_cache_key(NIFTY_1M_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(LIVE_ACCURACY_PATH),
        _file_cache_key(TOMORROW_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH),
    )
    with _dashboard_payload_lock:
        payload = copy.deepcopy(_dashboard_payload_cached(key))
    # Always rebuild track record (fresh Yahoo daily + calendar window), never serve from LRU cache.
    track_record = build_prediction_track_record(sessions=10)
    payload["charts"]["track_record"] = track_record
    payload["charts"]["track_record_meta"] = {
        "builder": "rolling_v1",
        "sessions": 10,
        "count": len(track_record),
        "start": track_record[0]["date"] if track_record else None,
        "end": track_record[-1]["date"] if track_record else None,
    }
    return payload


def warm_dashboard_payload_cache() -> None:
    dashboard_payload()


def _load_forecaster_predictions_by_target() -> dict[date, dict[str, Any]]:
    """Index bundled forecaster backtest rows by target session date."""
    path = DAILY_FORECASTER_PREDICTIONS_PATH
    if not path.exists():
        return {}
    try:
        frame = pd.read_csv(path)
    except Exception:
        return {}
    if frame.empty:
        return {}
    if "symbol" in frame.columns:
        frame = frame[frame["symbol"].astype(str) == "NIFTY 50"].copy()
    indexed: dict[date, dict[str, Any]] = {}
    for _, row in frame.iterrows():
        target_day = _parse_iso_date(row.get("target_date"))
        if target_day is None:
            continue
        pred_value = row.get("pred")
        if pd.isna(pred_value) and "raw_pred" in row:
            pred_value = row.get("raw_pred")
        try:
            pred_int = int(pred_value)
        except Exception:
            continue
        prob_up = row.get("prob_up")
        try:
            prob_up = float(prob_up) if pd.notna(prob_up) else None
        except Exception:
            prob_up = None
        indexed[target_day] = {
            "prediction": "UP" if pred_int == 1 else "DOWN",
            "prob_up": prob_up,
            "forecast_date": row.get("forecast_date"),
            "source": "Tomorrow (forecaster)",
        }
    return indexed


def _load_track_record_daily_rows() -> pd.DataFrame:
    """Daily OHLC for track record: live Yahoo pull merged over parquet history."""
    frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = []
    if NIFTY_1D_PATH.exists():
        try:
            frames.append(pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1D_PATH))
        except Exception:
            pass
    try:
        yahoo_daily = fetch_yahoo_daily(period="3mo")
        if not yahoo_daily.empty:
            frames.append(yahoo_daily)
            try:
                append_parquet_rows(NIFTY_1D_PATH, yahoo_daily, ["date"])
            except Exception:
                pass
    except Exception:
        pass

    if not frames:
        return pd.DataFrame()

    combined = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True)
    combined["date"] = pd.to_datetime(combined["date"], errors="coerce").dt.normalize()
    combined = combined.dropna(subset=["date"]).sort_values("date")
    combined = combined.drop_duplicates(subset=["date"], keep="last")
    combined = combined[
        combined["close"].map(lambda value: np.isfinite(float(value)) if pd.notna(value) else False)
    ].copy()
    return combined.reset_index(drop=True)


def _rolling_tomorrow_prediction(
    input_day: date,
    daily_rows: pd.DataFrame,
    threshold: float,
    fallback_prob: float,
) -> tuple[str, float]:
    """Simulate the Tomorrow model using only daily bars available through ``input_day``."""
    history = daily_rows[daily_rows["date"].dt.date <= input_day].copy()
    prob_up = _tomorrow_probability_from_daily(history, fallback_prob)
    prediction = "UP" if prob_up >= threshold else "DOWN"
    return prediction, float(prob_up)


def build_prediction_track_record(
    sessions: int = 10,
) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
    """Rolling last-N Tomorrow simulation: predict each session, score vs prior close."""
    summary = load_tomorrow_summary()
    artifact = load_tomorrow_model_artifact()
    threshold = float(artifact.get("threshold", summary.get("threshold", 0.534)))
    fallback_prob = float(summary.get("latest_forecast_prob_up", 0.49900560447008563))
    forecaster_by_target = _load_forecaster_predictions_by_target()

    daily_rows = _load_track_record_daily_rows()
    if daily_rows.empty:
        return []

    closes_by_date = {
        row["date"].date(): float(row["close"])
        for _, row in daily_rows.iterrows()
        if pd.notna(row["close"]) and np.isfinite(float(row["close"]))
    }

    end_session = _track_record_end_session()
    available_through = max(
        (day for day in closes_by_date if day <= end_session),
        default=None,
    )
    if available_through is None:
        return []
    if available_through < end_session:
        end_session = available_through

    session_dates = last_n_trading_sessions(end_session, sessions)

    records: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
    for target_day in session_dates:
        day_close = closes_by_date.get(target_day)
        if day_close is None:
            continue
        actual_move, actual_direction = _tomorrow_actual_outcome(target_day, day_close, closes_by_date)
        if actual_direction is None:
            continue

        input_day = previous_trading_day(target_day - timedelta(days=1))
        cached = forecaster_by_target.get(target_day)
        if cached and cached.get("prediction") in {"UP", "DOWN"}:
            prediction = cached["prediction"]
            prob_up = cached.get("prob_up")
            source = cached.get("source", "Tomorrow (forecaster)")
        else:
            prediction, prob_up = _rolling_tomorrow_prediction(
                input_day,
                daily_rows,
                threshold,
                fallback_prob,
            )
            source = "Tomorrow (rolling)"

        if prediction not in {"UP", "DOWN"}:
            continue

        records.append(
            {
                "date": target_day.isoformat(),
                "input_date": input_day.isoformat(),
                "prediction": prediction,
                "prediction_source": source,
                "prob_up": prob_up,
                "actual_move": actual_move,
                "actual_direction": actual_direction,
                "correct": prediction == actual_direction,
            }
        )
    return records[-sessions:]


@lru_cache(maxsize=4)
def _dashboard_payload_cached(key: tuple[tuple[str, int | None, int | None], ...]) -> dict[str, Any]:
    summary = load_model_summary()
    t5_latest = _latest_saved_prediction_uncached()
    tomorrow_summary = load_tomorrow_summary()
    tomorrow_latest = latest_tomorrow_prediction()
    tplus1_summary = load_tplus1_summary()
    tplus1_latest = latest_tplus1_prediction()
    refresh_state = load_refresh_state()
    t5_test = load_test_predictions()
    tomorrow_test = load_tomorrow_test_predictions()
    tomorrow_history = _load_prediction_history(TOMORROW_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH)
    tplus1_test = load_tplus1_test_predictions()
    daily = pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1D_PATH)
    daily["date"] = pd.to_datetime(daily["date"], errors="coerce")
    daily = daily.sort_values("date").tail(180)
    dataset = read_training_dataset()
    opening = dataset[["date", "first5_return", "first5_range_pct", "first5_close_location"]].tail(120).copy()

    if not t5_test.empty:
        recent_predictions = t5_test.tail(40).copy()
        recent_accuracy = float(recent_predictions["correct"].mean())
        direction_mix = t5_test.groupby("prediction")["correct"].agg(["count", "mean"]).reset_index()
        monthly = (
            t5_test.assign(month=t5_test["date"].dt.strftime("%Y-%m"))
            .groupby("month", as_index=False)["correct"]
            .mean()
            .rename(columns={"correct": "accuracy"})
        )
    else:
        recent_predictions = pd.DataFrame()
        recent_accuracy = None
        direction_mix = pd.DataFrame()
        monthly = pd.DataFrame()

    if not tomorrow_test.empty:
        tomorrow_recent = tomorrow_test.tail(40).copy()
        if "pred" in tomorrow_recent.columns and "prediction" not in tomorrow_recent.columns:
            tomorrow_recent["prediction"] = np.where(pd.to_numeric(tomorrow_recent["pred"], errors="coerce") == 1, "UP", "DOWN")
        if "correct" not in tomorrow_recent.columns and {"target", "pred"}.issubset(tomorrow_recent.columns):
            tomorrow_recent["correct"] = pd.to_numeric(tomorrow_recent["target"], errors="coerce") == pd.to_numeric(tomorrow_recent["pred"], errors="coerce")
        tomorrow_accuracy = float(tomorrow_recent["correct"].mean()) if "correct" in tomorrow_recent.columns else tomorrow_summary.get("test_accuracy")
    else:
        tomorrow_recent = pd.DataFrame()
        tomorrow_accuracy = tomorrow_summary.get("test_accuracy")

    model_metrics = [
        {
            "id": "tomorrow",
            "label": "Tomorrow",
            "model_name": tomorrow_summary.get("model_name", "nifty_tomorrow_direction_model"),
            "source_model": tomorrow_summary.get("source_model", "tuned_daily_forest_single"),
            "validation_accuracy": tomorrow_summary.get("validation_accuracy"),
            "test_accuracy": tomorrow_summary.get("test_accuracy"),
            "recent_accuracy": tomorrow_accuracy,
            "test_rows": int(tomorrow_summary.get("n_test") or len(tomorrow_test) or 0),
        },
        {
            "id": "tplus1",
            "label": "T+1",
            "model_name": tplus1_summary.get("model_name", "nifty_1420_tplus1_logistic_model"),
            "source_model": "14:00-14:20 logistic forecaster",
            "validation_accuracy": tplus1_summary.get("validation_accuracy"),
            "test_accuracy": tplus1_summary.get("test_accuracy"),
            "recent_accuracy": float(tplus1_test.tail(40)["correct"].mean()) if not tplus1_test.empty and "correct" in tplus1_test.columns else tplus1_summary.get("test_accuracy"),
            "test_rows": int(tplus1_summary.get("test_rows") or len(tplus1_test) or 0),
        },
        {
            "id": "t5",
            "label": "T+5",
            "model_name": summary.get("model_name", "nifty_opening_direction_model"),
            "source_model": summary.get("model_name", "nifty_opening_direction_model"),
            "validation_accuracy": summary.get("validation_accuracy"),
            "test_accuracy": summary.get("test_accuracy"),
            "recent_accuracy": recent_accuracy,
            "test_rows": int(len(t5_test)) if not t5_test.empty else int(summary.get("test_rows") or 0),
        },
    ]
    metrics = {
        "validation_accuracy": tomorrow_summary.get("validation_accuracy"),
        "test_accuracy": tomorrow_summary.get("test_accuracy"),
        "baseline_test_accuracy": tomorrow_summary.get("baseline_accuracy"),
        "validation_auc": summary.get("validation_auc"),
        "test_auc": summary.get("test_auc"),
        "test_brier": summary.get("test_brier"),
        "feature_count": tomorrow_summary.get("feature_count"),
        "recent_accuracy": tomorrow_accuracy,
        "recent_accuracy_days": int(len(tomorrow_recent)) if not tomorrow_recent.empty else 0,
        "total_test_days": int(tomorrow_summary.get("n_test") or len(tomorrow_test) or 0),
        "models": model_metrics,
    }
    return {
        "latest": t5_latest,
        "tomorrow_latest": tomorrow_latest,
        "tplus1_latest": tplus1_latest,
        "live_accuracy": load_live_accuracy(),
        "metrics": metrics,
        "summary": summary,
        "tomorrow_summary": tomorrow_summary,
        "tplus1_summary": tplus1_summary,
        "candidates": load_candidate_results(),
        "charts": {
            "daily_close": _json_ready_frame(daily[["date", "open", "high", "low", "close"]]),
            "opening_features": _json_ready_frame(opening),
            "monthly_accuracy": _json_ready_frame(monthly),
            "direction_mix": _json_ready_frame(direction_mix),
            "recent_predictions": _json_ready_frame(recent_predictions),
            "t5_recent_predictions": _json_ready_frame(recent_predictions),
            "tomorrow_recent_predictions": _json_ready_frame(tomorrow_recent),
            "tomorrow_history_predictions": _json_ready_frame(tomorrow_history.tail(80)),
            "tplus1_recent_predictions": _json_ready_frame(tplus1_test.tail(40)),
            "track_record": [],
        },
        "data_status": {
            "nifty_1m_rows": int(len(pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1M_PATH, columns=["date"]))),
            "nifty_1d_rows": int(len(pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1D_PATH, columns=["date"]))),
            "training_rows": int(len(dataset)),
            "test_prediction_rows": int(len(t5_test)),
            "tomorrow_test_prediction_rows": int(len(tomorrow_test)),
            "tplus1_test_prediction_rows": int(len(tplus1_test)),
            "latest_daily_date": pd.to_datetime(daily["date"]).max().date().isoformat(),
            "refresh_phase": refresh_state.get("phase", REFRESH_NORMAL),
            "refresh_state": refresh_state,
        },
    }


def refresh_first5_prediction(session_date: date | None = None, minutes: pd.DataFrame | None = None) -> Prediction:
    if session_date is None:
        today = datetime.now(IST).date()
        if not is_trading_day(today):
            raise RuntimeError(f"{today.isoformat()} is not an NSE trading session.")
    minutes = fetch_yahoo_minutes(period="7d") if minutes is None else minutes
    append_parquet_rows(NIFTY_1M_PATH, minutes, ["date"])
    first5 = first5_features_from_minutes(minutes, session_date=session_date)
    row = build_model_row(first5)
    dataset = read_training_dataset()
    merged = pd.concat([dataset, row], ignore_index=True)
    merged = merged.drop_duplicates(subset=["date"], keep="last").sort_values("date").reset_index(drop=True)
    merged.to_parquet(OPENING_DATASET_PATH, index=False, compression="zstd")
    prediction = predict_row(row)
    clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
    return prediction


def refresh_daily_data() -> dict[str, Any]:
    daily = fetch_yahoo_daily(period="1mo")
    combined = append_parquet_rows(NIFTY_1D_PATH, daily, ["date"])
    clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
    return {
        "rows": int(len(combined)),
        "latest_date": pd.to_datetime(combined["date"]).max().date().isoformat(),
        "path": str(NIFTY_1D_PATH),
    }


def update_opening_outcomes_from_daily() -> dict[str, Any]:
    if not OPENING_DATASET_PATH.exists() or not NIFTY_1D_PATH.exists():
        return {"updated_rows": 0, "latest_date": None}
    dataset = pd.read_parquet(OPENING_DATASET_PATH)
    daily = pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1D_PATH)
    if dataset.empty or daily.empty:
        return {"updated_rows": 0, "latest_date": None}

    dataset = dataset.copy()
    dataset["_session_date"] = pd.to_datetime(dataset["date"], errors="coerce").dt.normalize()
    daily = daily.copy()
    daily["_session_date"] = pd.to_datetime(daily["date"], errors="coerce").dt.normalize()
    daily = daily.dropna(subset=["_session_date"]).drop_duplicates("_session_date", keep="last")
    daily = daily.set_index("_session_date")

    updated = 0
    for idx, session_day in dataset["_session_date"].dropna().items():
        if session_day not in daily.index:
            continue
        row = daily.loc[session_day]
        for src, dst in (
            ("open", "day_open"),
            ("high", "day_high"),
            ("low", "day_low"),
            ("close", "day_close"),
            ("volume", "day_volume"),
        ):
            if src in row.index and dst in dataset.columns:
                dataset.at[idx, dst] = row[src]
        if {"day_open", "day_close", "target", "day_return"}.issubset(dataset.columns):
            day_open = dataset.at[idx, "day_open"]
            day_close = dataset.at[idx, "day_close"]
            if pd.notna(day_open) and pd.notna(day_close) and float(day_open) != 0.0:
                dataset.at[idx, "target"] = int(float(day_close) > float(day_open))
                dataset.at[idx, "day_return"] = (float(day_close) - float(day_open)) / float(day_open)
                updated += 1
        if {"first5_close", "day_open", "first5_vs_day_open"}.issubset(dataset.columns):
            first5_close = dataset.at[idx, "first5_close"]
            day_open = dataset.at[idx, "day_open"]
            if pd.notna(first5_close) and pd.notna(day_open) and float(day_open) != 0.0:
                dataset.at[idx, "first5_vs_day_open"] = (float(first5_close) - float(day_open)) / float(day_open)

    dataset = dataset.drop(columns=["_session_date"])
    dataset = dataset.sort_values("date").reset_index(drop=True)
    dataset.to_parquet(OPENING_DATASET_PATH, index=False, compression="zstd")
    clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
    latest = pd.to_datetime(dataset["date"], errors="coerce").max()
    return {
        "updated_rows": int(updated),
        "latest_date": None if pd.isna(latest) else latest.date().isoformat(),
    }


def load_live_accuracy() -> dict[str, Any]:
    """Load the live accuracy ledger from disk."""
    default = {
        "tomorrow": {"entries": [], "accuracy": None, "total": 0, "correct_count": 0, "backtest_count": 0, "live_count": 0},
        "t5": {"entries": [], "accuracy": None, "total": 0, "correct_count": 0, "backtest_count": 0, "live_count": 0},
        "tplus1": {"entries": [], "accuracy": None, "total": 0, "correct_count": 0, "backtest_count": 0, "live_count": 0},
    }

    if LIVE_ACCURACY_PATH.exists():
        try:
            raw = json.loads(LIVE_ACCURACY_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
        except Exception:
            raw = None
        if isinstance(raw, dict):
            try:
                for model_id in default:
                    current = raw.get(model_id, {})
                    if not isinstance(current, dict):
                        current = {}
                    entries = current.get("entries", [])
                    if not isinstance(entries, list):
                        entries = []
                    backtest_entries = [entry for entry in entries if str(entry.get("source", "backtest")).lower() == "backtest"]
                    live_entries = [entry for entry in entries if str(entry.get("source", "backtest")).lower() != "backtest"]
                    total = len(entries)
                    correct = sum(1 for e in entries if e.get("correct"))
                    current["entries"] = entries
                    current["backtest_count"] = int(len(backtest_entries))
                    current["live_count"] = int(len(live_entries))
                    current["total"] = int(total)
                    current["correct_count"] = int(correct)
                    current["accuracy"] = (current["correct_count"] / current["total"]) if current["total"] > 0 else None
                    default[model_id].update(current)
                return default
            except Exception:
                pass
    return default


def save_live_accuracy(data: dict[str, Any]) -> None:
    """Persist the live accuracy ledger to disk."""
    LIVE_ACCURACY_PATH.write_text(json.dumps(data, indent=2), encoding="utf-8")


def _load_prediction_history(path: Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
    if not path.exists():
        return pd.DataFrame()
    frame = pd.read_parquet(path)
    for col in ("date", "input_date", "target_date", "forecast_date"):
        if col in frame.columns:
            frame[col] = pd.to_datetime(frame[col], errors="coerce")
    sort_cols = [col for col in ("target_date", "input_date", "date", "forecast_date") if col in frame.columns]
    if sort_cols:
        return frame.sort_values(sort_cols).reset_index(drop=True)
    return frame.reset_index(drop=True)


def _record_prediction_history(path: Path, row: dict[str, Any], subset: list[str]) -> None:
    append_prediction_history(path, row, subset)


def _rescore_tomorrow_live_ledger(ledger: dict[str, Any]) -> bool:
    """Fix live Tomorrow ledger entries to use close vs previous close. Returns True if modified."""
    daily = pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1D_PATH)
    daily["_date"] = pd.to_datetime(daily["date"], errors="coerce").dt.normalize()
    closes_by_date: dict[date, float] = {}
    for _, row in daily.iterrows():
        if pd.isna(row["_date"]):
            continue
        close = row.get("close")
        if pd.notna(close) and np.isfinite(float(close)):
            closes_by_date[row["_date"].date()] = float(close)

    changed = False
    for entry in ledger.get("tomorrow", {}).get("entries", []):
        if str(entry.get("source", "backtest")).lower() == "backtest":
            continue
        try:
            day = date.fromisoformat(str(entry.get("date", ""))[:10])
        except Exception:
            continue
        day_close = closes_by_date.get(day)
        if day_close is None:
            continue
        _, actual_direction = _tomorrow_actual_outcome(day, day_close, closes_by_date)
        if actual_direction is None:
            continue
        pred = str(entry.get("prediction", "")).upper()
        if pred not in {"UP", "DOWN"}:
            continue
        new_correct = pred == actual_direction
        if entry.get("actual") != actual_direction or entry.get("correct") != new_correct:
            entry["actual"] = actual_direction
            entry["correct"] = new_correct
            changed = True
    return changed


def ensure_completed_sessions_scored(
    now: datetime | None = None,
    ledger: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
) -> dict[str, Any]:
    """Score any completed Tomorrow sessions that have daily close data but no ledger entry."""
    now = now or datetime.now(IST)
    completed = expected_completed_daily_date(now)
    if not is_trading_day(completed):
        return ledger or load_live_accuracy()

    ledger = ledger or load_live_accuracy()
    if _rescore_tomorrow_live_ledger(ledger):
        for model_id in ("tomorrow",):
            entries = ledger[model_id]["entries"]
            total = len(entries)
            correct = sum(1 for e in entries if e.get("correct"))
            backtest_count = sum(1 for e in entries if str(e.get("source", "backtest")).lower() == "backtest")
            ledger[model_id]["total"] = total
            ledger[model_id]["correct_count"] = correct
            ledger[model_id]["backtest_count"] = backtest_count
            ledger[model_id]["live_count"] = total - backtest_count
            ledger[model_id]["accuracy"] = correct / total if total > 0 else None
        save_live_accuracy(ledger)
        clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
    logged_tom = {e["date"] for e in ledger.get("tomorrow", {}).get("entries", [])}
    if completed.isoformat() in logged_tom:
        return ledger

    daily = pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1D_PATH)
    daily["_date"] = pd.to_datetime(daily["date"], errors="coerce").dt.normalize()
    day_rows = daily[daily["_date"].dt.date == completed]
    if day_rows.empty:
        return ledger

    day_open = float(day_rows.iloc[-1]["open"])
    day_close = float(day_rows.iloc[-1]["close"])
    if not (np.isfinite(day_open) and np.isfinite(day_close) and day_open != 0):
        return ledger

    return update_live_accuracy(completed)


def update_live_accuracy(session_date: date) -> dict[str, Any]:
    """Score today's predictions against actual outcomes and update the ledger.

    Must be called AFTER refresh_daily_data() (so today's close is available)
    but BEFORE refresh_first5_prediction / refresh_tplus1_prediction /
    refresh_tomorrow_prediction (so the CSV files still hold the predictions
    we want to score).
    """
    ledger = load_live_accuracy()
    daily = pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1D_PATH)
    daily["_date"] = pd.to_datetime(daily["date"], errors="coerce").dt.normalize()
    today_rows = daily[daily["_date"].dt.date == session_date]
    if today_rows.empty:
        return ledger

    day_open = float(today_rows.iloc[-1]["open"])
    day_close = float(today_rows.iloc[-1]["close"])
    if not (np.isfinite(day_open) and np.isfinite(day_close) and day_open != 0):
        return ledger
    actual_close_gt_open = "UP" if day_close > day_open else "DOWN"
    session_iso = session_date.isoformat()

    # --- T+5: today's 9:20 AM prediction vs close > open ---
    logged_t5 = {e["date"] for e in ledger["t5"]["entries"]}
    if session_iso not in logged_t5:
        t5_history = _load_prediction_history(T5_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH)
        if not t5_history.empty and "target_date" in t5_history.columns:
            t5_rows = t5_history[t5_history["target_date"].dt.date == session_date]
        else:
            t5_rows = pd.DataFrame()
        if t5_rows.empty and LATEST_PATH.exists():
            try:
                t5_row = pd.read_csv(LATEST_PATH).iloc[-1].to_dict()
                if str(t5_row.get("input_date", ""))[:10] == session_iso:
                    t5_rows = pd.DataFrame([t5_row])
            except Exception:
                t5_rows = pd.DataFrame()
        if not t5_rows.empty:
            try:
                t5_row = t5_rows.iloc[-1].to_dict()
                pred = str(t5_row.get("prediction", "")).upper()
                if pred in ("UP", "DOWN"):
                    ledger["t5"]["entries"].append({
                        "date": session_iso,
                        "prediction": pred,
                        "actual": actual_close_gt_open,
                        "correct": pred == actual_close_gt_open,
                        "source": "live",
                    })
            except Exception:
                pass

    # --- Tomorrow: prior close vs today's close (matches forecaster target) ---
    logged_tom = {e["date"] for e in ledger["tomorrow"]["entries"]}
    if session_iso not in logged_tom:
        prev_day = previous_trading_day(session_date - timedelta(days=1))
        prev_rows = daily[daily["_date"].dt.date == prev_day]
        actual_tomorrow = None
        if not prev_rows.empty:
            prev_close = float(prev_rows.iloc[-1]["close"])
            if np.isfinite(prev_close) and prev_close != 0:
                actual_tomorrow = "UP" if day_close > prev_close else "DOWN"
        tom_row = _find_tomorrow_prediction_for_target(session_date)
        if tom_row and actual_tomorrow is not None:
            try:
                pred = str(tom_row.get("prediction", "")).upper()
                if pred in ("UP", "DOWN"):
                    ledger["tomorrow"]["entries"].append({
                        "date": session_iso,
                        "prediction": pred,
                        "actual": actual_tomorrow,
                        "correct": pred == actual_tomorrow,
                        "source": "live",
                    })
            except Exception:
                pass

    # --- T+1: yesterday's 14:20 prediction targeting today ---
    # T+1 target: today's close > yesterday's 14:20 close
    logged_t1 = {e["date"] for e in ledger["tplus1"]["entries"]}
    if session_iso not in logged_t1:
        t1_history = _load_prediction_history(TPLUS1_PREDICTION_HISTORY_PATH)
        if not t1_history.empty and "target_date" in t1_history.columns:
            t1_rows = t1_history[t1_history["target_date"].dt.date == session_date]
        else:
            t1_rows = pd.DataFrame()
        if not t1_rows.empty:
            try:
                t1_row = t1_rows.iloc[-1].to_dict()
                pred = str(t1_row.get("prediction", "")).upper()
                input_date_str = str(t1_row.get("input_date", ""))[:10]
                input_day = date.fromisoformat(input_date_str)
                # Read the 14:20 close from minute data for the input session
                minute = pd.read_parquet(NIFTY_1M_PATH, columns=["date", "close"])
                minute["dt"] = pd.to_datetime(minute["date"], errors="coerce")
                minute = minute.dropna(subset=["dt"])
                minute["session_date"] = minute["dt"].dt.normalize()
                minute["time_str"] = minute["dt"].dt.strftime("%H:%M")
                window = minute[
                    (minute["session_date"].dt.date == input_day)
                    & (minute["time_str"] >= "14:00")
                    & (minute["time_str"] <= "14:20")
                ].sort_values("dt")
                if not window.empty and pred in ("UP", "DOWN"):
                    w_close = float(window.iloc[-1]["close"])
                    t1_actual = "UP" if day_close > w_close else "DOWN"
                    ledger["tplus1"]["entries"].append({
                        "date": session_iso,
                        "prediction": pred,
                        "actual": t1_actual,
                        "correct": pred == t1_actual,
                        "source": "live",
                    })
            except Exception:
                pass

    _rescore_tomorrow_live_ledger(ledger)

    # Recompute summary stats
    for model_id in ("t5", "tomorrow", "tplus1"):
        entries = ledger[model_id]["entries"]
        total = len(entries)
        correct = sum(1 for e in entries if e.get("correct"))
        backtest_count = sum(1 for e in entries if str(e.get("source", "backtest")).lower() == "backtest")
        ledger[model_id]["total"] = total
        ledger[model_id]["correct_count"] = correct
        ledger[model_id]["backtest_count"] = backtest_count
        ledger[model_id]["live_count"] = total - backtest_count
        ledger[model_id]["accuracy"] = correct / total if total > 0 else None

    save_live_accuracy(ledger)
    clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
    return ledger


def refresh_market_close_data(session_date: date | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]:
    now = datetime.now(IST)
    session_date = session_date or now.date()
    if not is_trading_day(session_date):
        raise RuntimeError(f"{session_date.isoformat()} is not an NSE trading session.")
    save_refresh_state(REFRESH_WAITING, session_date=session_date)
    try:
        save_refresh_state(REFRESH_REFRESHING, session_date=session_date)
        minutes = fetch_yahoo_minutes(period="7d")
        minute_frame = append_parquet_rows(NIFTY_1M_PATH, minutes, ["date"])
        daily_info = refresh_daily_data()
        # Score live predictions BEFORE they get overwritten by fresh ones
        try:
            update_live_accuracy(session_date)
        except Exception as exc:
            print(f"[close-refresh] live accuracy update failed: {exc}", flush=True)
        t5_prediction = refresh_first5_prediction(session_date=session_date, minutes=minutes)
        tplus1_prediction = refresh_tplus1_prediction(session_date=session_date)
        outcomes = update_opening_outcomes_from_daily()
        tomorrow_prediction = refresh_tomorrow_prediction(session_date=session_date)
        state = save_refresh_state(REFRESH_READY, session_date=session_date)
        clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
        return {
            "session_date": session_date.isoformat(),
            "nifty_1m_rows": int(len(minute_frame)),
            "latest_minute": pd.to_datetime(minute_frame["date"], errors="coerce").max().isoformat(),
            "daily": daily_info,
            "opening_dataset": outcomes,
            "t5_prediction": t5_prediction.to_dict(),
            "tplus1_prediction": tplus1_prediction,
            "tomorrow_prediction": tomorrow_prediction,
            "refresh_state": state,
        }
    except Exception as exc:
        save_refresh_state(REFRESH_FAILED, session_date=session_date, error=str(exc))
        clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
        raise


def close_refresh_due(now: datetime | None = None) -> bool:
    now = now or datetime.now(IST)
    if not is_trading_day(now.date()) or now.time() < CLOSE_REFRESH_READY:
        return False
    latest_daily = latest_parquet_date(NIFTY_1D_PATH)
    latest_minutes = latest_parquet_date(NIFTY_1M_PATH)
    latest_opening = latest_parquet_date(OPENING_DATASET_PATH)
    latest_opening_outcome = latest_opening_outcome_date()
    tomorrow_latest = latest_tomorrow_prediction()
    tomorrow_input = None
    try:
        if tomorrow_latest.get("input_date"):
            tomorrow_input = date.fromisoformat(str(tomorrow_latest.get("input_date"))[:10])
    except Exception:
        tomorrow_input = None
    return any(
        latest != now.date()
        for latest in (latest_daily, latest_minutes, latest_opening, latest_opening_outcome, tomorrow_input)
    )


def latest_prediction_input_date(path: Path) -> date | None:
    if not path.exists():
        return None
    try:
        frame = pd.read_csv(path, usecols=["input_date"])
    except Exception:
        return None
    if frame.empty:
        return None
    value = pd.to_datetime(frame["input_date"], errors="coerce").max()
    return None if pd.isna(value) else value.date()


def latest_tomorrow_input_date() -> date | None:
    try:
        latest = latest_tomorrow_prediction()
        raw = latest.get("input_date")
        return date.fromisoformat(str(raw)[:10]) if raw else None
    except Exception:
        return None


def expected_completed_daily_date(now: datetime | None = None) -> date:
    now = now or datetime.now(IST)
    if is_trading_day(now.date()) and now.time() < CLOSE_REFRESH_READY:
        return previous_trading_day(now.date() - timedelta(days=1))
    return previous_trading_day(now.date())


def expected_minute_date(now: datetime | None = None) -> date:
    now = now or datetime.now(IST)
    if is_trading_day(now.date()) and now.time() >= FIRST5_READY:
        return now.date()
    return previous_trading_day(now.date() - timedelta(days=1))


def expected_tplus1_date(now: datetime | None = None) -> date:
    now = now or datetime.now(IST)
    if is_trading_day(now.date()) and now.time() >= TPLUS1_READY:
        return now.date()
    return previous_trading_day(now.date() - timedelta(days=1))


def is_stale(latest: date | None, expected: date) -> bool:
    return latest is None or latest < expected


def stale_data_status(now: datetime | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]:
    now = now or datetime.now(IST)
    expected_daily = expected_completed_daily_date(now)
    expected_minutes = expected_minute_date(now)
    expected_tplus1 = expected_tplus1_date(now)
    latest_daily = latest_parquet_date(NIFTY_1D_PATH)
    latest_minutes = latest_parquet_date(NIFTY_1M_PATH)
    latest_t5 = latest_prediction_input_date(LATEST_PATH)
    latest_tomorrow = latest_tomorrow_input_date()
    latest_tplus1 = latest_prediction_input_date(TPLUS1_LATEST_PATH)
    return {
        "server_time_ist": now.isoformat(),
        "expected_daily_date": expected_daily.isoformat(),
        "expected_minute_date": expected_minutes.isoformat(),
        "expected_tplus1_date": expected_tplus1.isoformat(),
        "latest_daily_date": latest_daily.isoformat() if latest_daily else None,
        "latest_minute_date": latest_minutes.isoformat() if latest_minutes else None,
        "latest_t5_date": latest_t5.isoformat() if latest_t5 else None,
        "latest_tomorrow_date": latest_tomorrow.isoformat() if latest_tomorrow else None,
        "latest_tplus1_date": latest_tplus1.isoformat() if latest_tplus1 else None,
        "daily_stale": is_stale(latest_daily, expected_daily),
        "minutes_stale": is_stale(latest_minutes, expected_minutes),
        "t5_stale": is_stale(latest_t5, expected_minutes),
        "tomorrow_stale": is_stale(latest_tomorrow, expected_daily),
        "tplus1_stale": is_stale(latest_tplus1, expected_tplus1),
    }


def refresh_stale_data_once(now: datetime | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]:
    now = now or datetime.now(IST)
    status = stale_data_status(now)
    if not any(status[key] for key in ("daily_stale", "minutes_stale", "t5_stale", "tomorrow_stale", "tplus1_stale")):
        return {"status": "fresh", **status, "actions": []}
    if not _stale_refresh_lock.acquire(blocking=False):
        return {"status": "skipped", "reason": "stale refresh already running", **status, "actions": []}

    actions: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
    try:
        if status["minutes_stale"]:
            minutes = fetch_yahoo_minutes(period="7d")
            combined = append_parquet_rows(NIFTY_1M_PATH, minutes, ["date"])
            actions.append(
                {
                    "name": "minutes",
                    "rows": int(len(combined)),
                    "latest_date": pd.to_datetime(combined["date"], errors="coerce").max().date().isoformat(),
                }
            )

        if status["daily_stale"]:
            daily_info = refresh_daily_data()
            outcomes = update_opening_outcomes_from_daily()
            actions.append({"name": "daily", **daily_info})
            actions.append({"name": "opening_outcomes", **outcomes})
            try:
                completed = date.fromisoformat(status["expected_daily_date"])
                scored = update_live_accuracy(completed)
                actions.append(
                    {
                        "name": "tomorrow_live_accuracy",
                        "session_date": completed.isoformat(),
                        "live_count": scored.get("tomorrow", {}).get("live_count"),
                    }
                )
            except Exception as exc:
                actions.append({"name": "tomorrow_live_accuracy", "error": str(exc)})

        if status["daily_stale"] or status["tomorrow_stale"]:
            try:
                tomorrow = refresh_tomorrow_prediction(session_date=date.fromisoformat(status["expected_daily_date"]))
                actions.append({"name": "tomorrow_prediction", "input_date": tomorrow.get("input_date")})
            except Exception as exc:
                actions.append({"name": "tomorrow_prediction", "error": str(exc)})

        if status["t5_stale"] and is_trading_day(now.date()) and now.time() >= FIRST5_READY:
            prediction = refresh_first5_prediction(session_date=now.date())
            actions.append({"name": "t5_prediction", "input_date": prediction.input_date})

        if status["tplus1_stale"] and is_trading_day(now.date()) and now.time() >= TPLUS1_READY:
            prediction = refresh_tplus1_prediction(session_date=now.date())
            actions.append({"name": "tplus1_prediction", "input_date": prediction.get("input_date")})

        clear_dashboard_payload_cache()
        refreshed_status = stale_data_status(datetime.now(IST))
        return {"status": "refreshed", **refreshed_status, "actions": actions}
    finally:
        _stale_refresh_lock.release()


def next_ist_run_at(run_time: time = time(9, 20), now: datetime | None = None) -> datetime:
    now = now or datetime.now(IST)
    target_day = now.date()
    if now >= datetime.combine(target_day, run_time, tzinfo=IST):
        target_day += timedelta(days=1)
    target_day = next_trading_day(target_day)
    return datetime.combine(target_day, run_time, tzinfo=IST)


def seconds_until_next_ist_run(run_time: time = time(9, 20)) -> float:
    now = datetime.now(IST)
    target = next_ist_run_at(run_time, now=now)
    return max(1.0, (target - now).total_seconds())