"""Local classifier for the CHRIS carbon-free ceramic fallback. The model is intentionally narrow: it estimates whether a carbon-free, otherwise-unclassified material belongs above the historical 700 C ceramic melting-point gate. It is not a general melting-point model. Runtime data files (version-controlled under ``data/``): * ``ceramic_classifier_training.csv`` Trusted material formulas and reference MP ranges used to train the model. * ``magpie_element_properties.csv`` Magpie elemental-property table copied from CBFV. Elemental melting-point columns are excluded at runtime because the validated production model did not need them. The model trains lazily on first use and is cached for the lifetime of the process. ``warm_classifier()`` may be called during application startup if explicit eager training is preferred. """ from __future__ import annotations from collections import Counter from dataclasses import dataclass import logging import os from pathlib import Path import re import threading from typing import Optional import numpy as np import pandas as pd import chemicals from rdkit.Chem import AllChem as Chem from sklearn.ensemble import ExtraTreesClassifier from sklearn.impute import SimpleImputer from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline _logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) MODEL_VERSION = "magpie700-v1" TRAINING_DATA_VERSION = "2026-10-07" REFERENCE_CUTOFF_C = 700.0 DEFAULT_THRESHOLD = 0.5 RANDOM_STATE = 20261006 N_TREES = 300 EXPECTED_FEATURE_COUNT = 126 _DATA_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent / "data" _DEFAULT_TRAINING_PATH = _DATA_DIR / "ceramic_classifier_training.csv" _DEFAULT_MAGPIE_PATH = _DATA_DIR / "magpie_element_properties.csv" FORMULA_TOKEN_RE = re.compile(r"([A-Z][a-z]?)(\d*)") ISOTOPE_RE = re.compile(r"\[(?:\d+)?([A-Z][a-z]?)\]") # Deliberately narrow warnings copied from the material-formula preparation # workflow. They prevent molecular-database formula artifacts from being used # as material stoichiometry for unseen compounds. _MISSING_H_NAME_RE = re.compile( r"(?:\bborohydride\b|^\s*(?:di|tri|tetra|penta|hexa|hepta|octa|nona|deca)?borane\b)", flags=re.IGNORECASE, ) _ANHYDROUS_SOLID_RE = re.compile( r"(?:\b(?:oxide|sulfide|selenide|telluride|silicide|nitride|carbide|boride|" r"phosphide|arsenide|fluoride|chloride|bromide|iodide|silicate|aluminate|" r"titanate|zirconate|ferrite|chromite|spinel)\b)", flags=re.IGNORECASE, ) _HYDROGEN_ALLOWED_RE = re.compile( r"(?:(?:mono|di|tri|tetra|penta|hexa|hepta|octa|nona|deca)?hydrate\b|" r"\bhemihydrate\b|\bhydroxide\b|\bhydride\b|\bhydrogen\b|" r"\bdeuterium\b|\btritium\b|\bammonium\b|\bphosphonium\b|" r"\bphosphine\b|\barsine\b|\bstibine\b|\bsilane\b|" r"\bacid\b|\bborohydride\b)", flags=re.IGNORECASE, ) @dataclass(frozen=True) class CeramicPrediction: """Result returned by :func:`predict_high_mp`.""" is_high_mp: bool probability: float threshold: float formula: str model_version: str = MODEL_VERSION reference_cutoff_C: float = REFERENCE_CUTOFF_C @property def origin(self) -> str: return f"{self.model_version}/classifier p={self.probability:.3f}" @dataclass class _ModelState: pipeline: Pipeline feature_columns: list[str] magpie_table: pd.DataFrame trusted_formula_by_cas: dict[str, str] n_training_rows: int _MODEL_STATE: Optional[_ModelState] = None _MODEL_ERROR: Optional[str] = None _MODEL_LOCK = threading.Lock() def _disabled() -> bool: return os.environ.get("DISABLE_CERAMIC_CLASSIFIER", "").strip().lower() in { "1", "true", "yes", } def _runtime_path(env_name: str, default: Path) -> Path: value = os.environ.get(env_name) return Path(value).expanduser().resolve() if value else default def _training_path() -> Path: return _runtime_path("CERAMIC_CLASSIFIER_TRAINING_PATH", _DEFAULT_TRAINING_PATH) def _magpie_path() -> Path: return _runtime_path("CERAMIC_CLASSIFIER_MAGPIE_PATH", _DEFAULT_MAGPIE_PATH) def _formula_counts(formula: object) -> Counter[str] | None: if formula is None or (isinstance(formula, float) and np.isnan(formula)): return None text = str(formula).strip() if not text: return None text = ISOTOPE_RE.sub(r"\1", text) text = re.sub(r"[+-]\d*$", "", text) text = re.sub(r"[+-]$", "", text) counts: Counter[str] = Counter() pos = 0 for match in FORMULA_TOKEN_RE.finditer(text): if match.start() != pos: return None symbol, number = match.groups() if symbol in {"D", "T"}: symbol = "H" counts[symbol] += int(number) if number else 1 pos = match.end() if pos != len(text) or not counts: return None return counts def _canonical_formula(counts: Counter[str] | None) -> str | None: if not counts: return None symbols = list(counts) if "C" in counts: order = ["C"] if "H" in counts: order.append("H") order.extend(sorted(symbol for symbol in symbols if symbol not in {"C", "H"})) else: order = sorted(symbols) parts: list[str] = [] for symbol in order: n = int(counts[symbol]) parts.append(symbol) if n != 1: parts.append(str(n)) return "".join(parts) def _heavy_counts(counts: Counter[str] | None) -> Counter[str] | None: if counts is None: return None return Counter({symbol: n for symbol, n in counts.items() if symbol != "H" and n}) def _smiles_heavy_counts(smiles: object) -> Counter[str] | None: if not isinstance(smiles, str) or not smiles.strip(): return None try: mol = Chem.MolFromSmiles(smiles) except Exception: mol = None if mol is None: return None return Counter( atom.GetSymbol() for atom in mol.GetAtoms() if atom.GetSymbol() != "H" ) def _safe_database_formula(identifier: str | None, name: str | None, smiles: str | None) -> str | None: """Return a conservative material-formula candidate from local metadata. The chemicals database formula is accepted only when its heavy-element stoichiometry exactly matches the atom nodes in the supplied SMILES and it does not trip known hydrogen-artifact warnings. No implicit RDKit hydrogen is ever added here. """ raw_formula = None for query in (identifier, name): if not query: continue try: record = chemicals.search_chemical(query) raw_formula = record.formula if raw_formula: break except Exception: continue if not raw_formula: return None counts = _formula_counts(raw_formula) if counts is None: return None smiles_heavy = _smiles_heavy_counts(smiles) if smiles_heavy is None or _heavy_counts(counts) != smiles_heavy: return None text = name or "" h_count = int(counts.get("H", 0)) if h_count == 0 and _MISSING_H_NAME_RE.search(text): return None if ( h_count > 0 and _ANHYDROUS_SOLID_RE.search(text) and not _HYDROGEN_ALLOWED_RE.search(text) ): return None return _canonical_formula(counts) def _load_magpie_table() -> pd.DataFrame: path = _magpie_path() if not path.exists(): raise FileNotFoundError( f"Ceramic classifier Magpie table not found: {path}" ) table = pd.read_csv(path) if "element" not in table.columns: raise ValueError(f"Magpie table {path} has no 'element' column") table = table.copy().set_index("element", drop=True) for column in table.columns: table[column] = pd.to_numeric(table[column], errors="coerce") # The validated production candidate excluded elemental melting-point # descriptors. Keep the source table unmodified and drop them here. melting_columns = [column for column in table.columns if "melt" in column.lower()] table = table.drop(columns=melting_columns) feature_count = len(table.columns) * 6 if feature_count != EXPECTED_FEATURE_COUNT: raise ValueError( "Unexpected Magpie schema after excluding elemental melting-point " f"columns: expected {EXPECTED_FEATURE_COUNT} features, got {feature_count}. " "Use the same Magpie table version used for validation." ) return table def _magpie_feature_columns(table: pd.DataFrame) -> list[str]: return [ f"{stat}_{prop}" for stat in ("avg", "dev", "range", "max", "min", "mode") for prop in table.columns ] def _magpie_vector(counts: Counter[str], table: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray | None: symbols = list(counts) available = set(table.index.astype(str)) if not set(symbols).issubset(available): return None atom_counts = np.asarray([counts[symbol] for symbol in symbols], dtype=float) fractions = atom_counts / atom_counts.sum() values = table.loc[symbols].to_numpy(dtype=float) with np.errstate(invalid="ignore", divide="ignore"): avg = np.sum(values * fractions[:, None], axis=0) dev = np.sum(np.abs(values - avg[None, :]) * fractions[:, None], axis=0) value_range = np.ptp(values, axis=0) value_max = np.max(values, axis=0) value_min = np.min(values, axis=0) prominent = np.isclose(fractions, np.max(fractions)) mode = np.min(values[prominent, :], axis=0) return np.concatenate([avg, dev, value_range, value_max, value_min, mode]) def _build_feature_frame(formulas: pd.Series, table: pd.DataFrame) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.Series]: columns = _magpie_feature_columns(table) rows: list[np.ndarray | None] = [] supported: list[bool] = [] for formula in formulas: counts = _formula_counts(formula) vector = _magpie_vector(counts, table) if counts is not None else None rows.append(vector) supported.append(vector is not None) data = np.full((len(rows), len(columns)), np.nan, dtype=float) for i, vector in enumerate(rows): if vector is not None: data[i, :] = vector return ( pd.DataFrame(data, index=formulas.index, columns=columns), pd.Series(supported, index=formulas.index, dtype=bool), ) def _train_model() -> _ModelState: training_path = _training_path() if not training_path.exists(): raise FileNotFoundError( f"Ceramic classifier training data not found: {training_path}" ) df = pd.read_csv(training_path, dtype={"CASRN": str}) required = {"CASRN", "material_formula", "mp_min_C", "mp_max_C"} missing = required - set(df.columns) if missing: raise ValueError( f"Ceramic classifier training file is missing columns: {sorted(missing)}" ) df = df.copy() df["mp_min_C"] = pd.to_numeric(df["mp_min_C"], errors="coerce") df["mp_max_C"] = pd.to_numeric(df["mp_max_C"], errors="coerce") df = df.dropna(subset=["material_formula", "mp_min_C", "mp_max_C"]) # Formula provenance is independent of whether reference MP sources cross # the cutoff, so keep all trusted formulas available for runtime lookup. trusted_formula_by_cas = { str(cas).strip(): str(formula).strip() for cas, formula in zip(df["CASRN"], df["material_formula"]) if pd.notna(cas) and pd.notna(formula) } # Conservative reference labels: only rows whose complete reference range # is on one side of 700 C are used for training. low = df["mp_max_C"] <= REFERENCE_CUTOFF_C high = df["mp_min_C"] > REFERENCE_CUTOFF_C stable = low | high df = df.loc[stable].copy() y = high.loc[df.index].astype(int).to_numpy() if len(df) < 100 or len(np.unique(y)) != 2: raise ValueError( "Ceramic classifier training data are incomplete: expected a substantial " "set containing both LOW and HIGH classes." ) table = _load_magpie_table() X, supported = _build_feature_frame(df["material_formula"], table) if not bool(supported.all()): unsupported = int((~supported).sum()) raise ValueError( f"{unsupported} training formulas are unsupported by the Magpie table" ) pipeline = Pipeline( [ ("imputer", SimpleImputer(strategy="median", keep_empty_features=True)), ( "classifier", ExtraTreesClassifier( n_estimators=N_TREES, min_samples_leaf=2, max_features="sqrt", class_weight="balanced", random_state=RANDOM_STATE, n_jobs=1, ), ), ] ) pipeline.fit(X, y) _logger.info( "Ceramic classifier trained: version=%s rows=%d features=%d threshold=%.2f", MODEL_VERSION, len(df), X.shape[1], DEFAULT_THRESHOLD, ) return _ModelState( pipeline=pipeline, feature_columns=list(X.columns), magpie_table=table, trusted_formula_by_cas=trusted_formula_by_cas, n_training_rows=len(df), ) def _ensure_model() -> _ModelState | None: global _MODEL_STATE, _MODEL_ERROR if _disabled(): return None if _MODEL_STATE is not None: return _MODEL_STATE if _MODEL_ERROR is not None: return None with _MODEL_LOCK: if _MODEL_STATE is not None: return _MODEL_STATE if _MODEL_ERROR is not None: return None try: _MODEL_STATE = _train_model() except Exception as exc: _MODEL_ERROR = f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}" _logger.warning( "Ceramic classifier unavailable; falling back to MP lookups: %s", _MODEL_ERROR, ) return None return _MODEL_STATE def warm_classifier() -> bool: """Train/load the classifier now instead of waiting for first prediction.""" return _ensure_model() is not None def resolve_material_formula( *, cas: str | None = None, name: str | None = None, smiles: str | None = None, formula: str | None = None, ) -> str | None: """Resolve a conservative material formula for classifier input. Explicit ``formula`` wins. Otherwise a trusted formula from the bundled training table is used when the CAS is known. For unseen compounds, a local chemicals-database formula is accepted only after conservative heavy-stoichiometry and hydrogen-artifact checks. """ if formula: counts = _formula_counts(formula) return _canonical_formula(counts) state = _ensure_model() if state is None: return None clean_cas = None if cas in {None, "", "Not found"} else str(cas).strip() clean_name = None if name in {None, "", "Not found"} else str(name).strip() if clean_cas and clean_cas in state.trusted_formula_by_cas: return state.trusted_formula_by_cas[clean_cas] return _safe_database_formula(clean_cas, clean_name, smiles) def predict_high_mp( *, cas: str | None = None, name: str | None = None, smiles: str | None = None, formula: str | None = None, threshold: float = DEFAULT_THRESHOLD, ) -> CeramicPrediction | None: """Predict whether an unresolved carbon-free material is above 700 C. Returns ``None`` when the model or a trustworthy material formula is not available. Callers should then fall back to experimental/tabulated MP lookup and ultimately to the conservative non-ceramic default. """ state = _ensure_model() if state is None: return None material_formula = resolve_material_formula( cas=cas, name=name, smiles=smiles, formula=formula, ) if material_formula is None: return None counts = _formula_counts(material_formula) if counts is None: return None vector = _magpie_vector(counts, state.magpie_table) if vector is None: return None X = pd.DataFrame([vector], columns=state.feature_columns) probability = float(state.pipeline.predict_proba(X)[0, 1]) return CeramicPrediction( is_high_mp=probability >= float(threshold), probability=probability, threshold=float(threshold), formula=material_formula, )