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import os
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.ticker as ticker
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
from matplotlib.dates import DateFormatter
# Set up plotting style
plt.style.use("seaborn-v0_8-whitegrid")
sns.set_palette("deep")
plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = (14, 8)
plt.rcParams["font.size"] = 12
def visualize_predictions_by_store_item(test_results, output_dir="visualizations"):
"""
Create visualizations of actual vs predicted values for each store-item combination.
Args:
test_results: DataFrame containing test results with columns:
'date', 'store_name', 'item_name', 'sales', 'prediction'
output_dir: Directory to save the visualizations
"""
# Create output directory if it doesn't exist
os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Create a time series plot for each store-item combination
store_items = test_results.groupby(["store_name", "item_name"])
# Get total number of combinations for progress tracking
total_combinations = len(store_items)
print(
f"Creating visualizations for {total_combinations} store-item combinations..."
)
# Counter for progress tracking
counter = 0
# For each store-item combination, create a plot
for (store, item), group in store_items:
# Sort by date to ensure proper time series order
group = group.sort_values("date")
# Convert date to datetime if it's not already
if not pd.api.types.is_datetime64_any_dtype(group["date"]):
group["date"] = pd.to_datetime(group["date"])
# Create the plot
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(14, 6))
# Plot actual and predicted values
ax.plot(
group["date"], group["sales"], "o-", label="Actual", alpha=0.7, linewidth=2
)
ax.plot(
group["date"],
group["prediction"],
"s--",
label="Predicted",
alpha=0.7,
linewidth=2,
)
# Calculate error metrics for this store-item
mae = np.mean(np.abs(group["sales"] - group["prediction"]))
mape = (
np.mean(np.abs((group["sales"] - group["prediction"]) / group["sales"]))
* 100
)
# Add title and labels
ax.set_title(f"Store: {store}, Item: {item}\nMAE: {mae:.2f}, MAPE: {mape:.2f}%")
ax.set_xlabel("Date")
ax.set_ylabel("Sales")
# Format x-axis dates
date_formatter = DateFormatter("%Y-%m-%d")
ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(date_formatter)
# Rotate date labels for better readability
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
# Add grid for easier reading
ax.grid(True, linestyle="--", alpha=0.7)
# Add legend
ax.legend()
# Adjust layout
plt.tight_layout()
# Save the figure
safe_store = store.replace(" ", "_").replace("/", "_")
safe_item = item.replace(" ", "_").replace("/", "_")
filename = f"{safe_store}_{safe_item}.png"
plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, filename))
# Close the figure to free memory
plt.close(fig)
# Update progress
counter += 1
if counter % 10 == 0:
print(f"Processed {counter}/{total_combinations} combinations")
print(f"All visualizations saved to {output_dir}/")
def visualize_aggregated_predictions(test_results, output_dir="visualizations"):
"""
Create aggregated visualizations of actual vs predicted values by store, item, and date.
Args:
test_results: DataFrame containing test results
output_dir: Directory to save the visualizations
"""
# Create output directory if it doesn't exist
os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Ensure date is in datetime format
if not pd.api.types.is_datetime64_any_dtype(test_results["date"]):
test_results["date"] = pd.to_datetime(test_results["date"])
# 1. Aggregate by date
daily_results = (
test_results.groupby("date")
.agg({"sales": "sum", "prediction": "sum"})
.reset_index()
)
# Plot daily aggregated results
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(14, 6))
ax.plot(
daily_results["date"],
daily_results["sales"],
"o-",
label="Actual",
alpha=0.7,
linewidth=2,
)
ax.plot(
daily_results["date"],
daily_results["prediction"],
"s--",
label="Predicted",
alpha=0.7,
linewidth=2,
)
# Add title and labels
ax.set_title("Total Daily Sales: Actual vs Predicted")
ax.set_xlabel("Date")
ax.set_ylabel("Total Sales")
# Format x-axis dates
date_formatter = DateFormatter("%Y-%m-%d")
ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(date_formatter)
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
# Add grid and legend
ax.grid(True, linestyle="--", alpha=0.7)
ax.legend()
# Adjust layout and save
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "total_daily_sales.png"))
plt.close(fig)
# 2. Aggregate by store
store_results = (
test_results.groupby(["store_name", "date"])
.agg({"sales": "sum", "prediction": "sum"})
.reset_index()
)
# Plot for each store
stores = store_results["store_name"].unique()
for store in stores:
store_data = store_results[store_results["store_name"] == store]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(14, 6))
ax.plot(
store_data["date"],
store_data["sales"],
"o-",
label="Actual",
alpha=0.7,
linewidth=2,
)
ax.plot(
store_data["date"],
store_data["prediction"],
"s--",
label="Predicted",
alpha=0.7,
linewidth=2,
)
# Add title and labels
ax.set_title(f"Store: {store} - Total Daily Sales")
ax.set_xlabel("Date")
ax.set_ylabel("Total Sales")
# Format x-axis dates
ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(date_formatter)
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
# Add grid and legend
ax.grid(True, linestyle="--", alpha=0.7)
ax.legend()
# Adjust layout and save
plt.tight_layout()
safe_store = store.replace(" ", "_").replace("/", "_")
plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, f"store_{safe_store}_total.png"))
plt.close(fig)
# 3. Aggregate by item
item_results = (
test_results.groupby(["item_name", "date"])
.agg({"sales": "sum", "prediction": "sum"})
.reset_index()
)
# Plot for each item
items = item_results["item_name"].unique()
for item in items:
item_data = item_results[item_results["item_name"] == item]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(14, 6))
ax.plot(
item_data["date"],
item_data["sales"],
"o-",
label="Actual",
alpha=0.7,
linewidth=2,
)
ax.plot(
item_data["date"],
item_data["prediction"],
"s--",
label="Predicted",
alpha=0.7,
linewidth=2,
)
# Add title and labels
ax.set_title(f"Item: {item} - Total Daily Sales")
ax.set_xlabel("Date")
ax.set_ylabel("Total Sales")
# Format x-axis dates
ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(date_formatter)
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
# Add grid and legend
ax.grid(True, linestyle="--", alpha=0.7)
ax.legend()
# Adjust layout and save
plt.tight_layout()
safe_item = item.replace(" ", "_").replace("/", "_")
plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, f"item_{safe_item}_total.png"))
plt.close(fig)
print(f"Aggregated visualizations saved to {output_dir}/")
def create_interactive_dashboard(test_results, output_dir="visualizations"):
"""
Create an interactive HTML dashboard with plots for all store-item combinations.
Requires Plotly and Dash libraries.
Args:
test_results: DataFrame containing test results
output_dir: Directory to save the dashboard
"""
try:
import plotly.express as px
import plotly.graph_objects as go
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
print("Creating interactive dashboard...")
# Create output directory if it doesn't exist
os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Ensure date is in datetime format
if not pd.api.types.is_datetime64_any_dtype(test_results["date"]):
test_results["date"] = pd.to_datetime(test_results["date"])
# Create overall performance figure
daily_results = (
test_results.groupby("date")
.agg({"sales": "sum", "prediction": "sum"})
.reset_index()
)
fig = go.Figure()
fig.add_trace(
go.Scatter(
x=daily_results["date"],
y=daily_results["sales"],
mode="lines+markers",
name="Actual",
line=dict(color="blue"),
)
)
fig.add_trace(
go.Scatter(
x=daily_results["date"],
y=daily_results["prediction"],
mode="lines+markers",
name="Predicted",
line=dict(color="red", dash="dash"),
)
)
fig.update_layout(
title="Overall Sales Performance: Actual vs Predicted",
xaxis_title="Date",
yaxis_title="Total Sales",
legend_title="Series",
height=600,
)
# Save the overall chart as HTML
fig.write_html(os.path.join(output_dir, "overall_performance.html"))
# Create an error heatmap
store_item_error = (
test_results.groupby(["store_name", "item_name"])
.apply(
lambda x: np.mean(np.abs((x["sales"] - x["prediction"]) / x["sales"]))
* 100
)
.reset_index()
)
store_item_error.columns = ["store_name", "item_name", "mape"]
# Pivot the data for the heatmap
heatmap_data = store_item_error.pivot(
index="store_name", columns="item_name", values="mape"
)
# Create heatmap figure
heatmap_fig = px.imshow(
heatmap_data,
labels=dict(x="Item", y="Store", color="MAPE (%)"),
x=heatmap_data.columns,
y=heatmap_data.index,
color_continuous_scale="RdBu_r",
title="Mean Absolute Percentage Error by Store and Item",
)
heatmap_fig.update_layout(height=800, width=1200)
# Save the heatmap as HTML
heatmap_fig.write_html(os.path.join(output_dir, "error_heatmap.html"))
print(f"Interactive dashboard elements saved to {output_dir}/")
except ImportError:
print("Could not create interactive dashboard. Plotly library is required.")
print("Install it with: pip install plotly dash")
def visualize_error_distribution(test_results, output_dir="visualizations"):
"""
Visualize the distribution and patterns of prediction errors.
Args:
test_results: DataFrame containing test results
output_dir: Directory to save the visualizations
"""
# Create output directory if it doesn't exist
os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Calculate errors
test_results["error"] = test_results["sales"] - test_results["prediction"]
test_results["abs_error"] = np.abs(test_results["error"])
test_results["pct_error"] = (test_results["error"] / test_results["sales"]) * 100
# 1. Error distribution histogram
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
sns.histplot(test_results["error"], kde=True, bins=50)
plt.axvline(x=0, color="red", linestyle="--")
plt.title("Distribution of Prediction Errors")
plt.xlabel("Error (Actual - Predicted)")
plt.ylabel("Frequency")
plt.grid(True, linestyle="--", alpha=0.7)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "error_distribution.png"))
plt.close()
# 2. Error vs Actual Sales
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
plt.scatter(test_results["sales"], test_results["error"], alpha=0.5)
plt.axhline(y=0, color="red", linestyle="--")
plt.title("Prediction Error vs Actual Sales")
plt.xlabel("Actual Sales")
plt.ylabel("Error (Actual - Predicted)")
plt.grid(True, linestyle="--", alpha=0.7)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "error_vs_sales.png"))
plt.close()
# 3. Error over time
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 6))
# Ensure date is in datetime format
if not pd.api.types.is_datetime64_any_dtype(test_results["date"]):
test_results["date"] = pd.to_datetime(test_results["date"])
# Group by date to see overall error trend
daily_error = test_results.groupby("date")["error"].mean().reset_index()
plt.plot(daily_error["date"], daily_error["error"], "o-")
plt.axhline(y=0, color="red", linestyle="--")
plt.title("Mean Prediction Error Over Time")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.ylabel("Mean Error")
date_formatter = DateFormatter("%Y-%m-%d")
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(date_formatter)
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.grid(True, linestyle="--", alpha=0.7)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "error_over_time.png"))
plt.close()
# 4. Error by day of week
test_results["day_of_week"] = test_results["date"].dt.dayofweek
test_results["day_name"] = test_results["date"].dt.day_name()
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
day_error = (
test_results.groupby("day_name")["pct_error"]
.mean()
.reindex(
[
"Monday",
"Tuesday",
"Wednesday",
"Thursday",
"Friday",
"Saturday",
"Sunday",
]
)
)
sns.barplot(x=day_error.index, y=day_error.values)
plt.title("Mean Percentage Error by Day of Week")
plt.xlabel("Day of Week")
plt.ylabel("Mean Percentage Error (%)")
plt.axhline(y=0, color="red", linestyle="--")
plt.grid(True, linestyle="--", alpha=0.7)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "error_by_day_of_week.png"))
plt.close()
# 5. Error by category - only if 'category' column exists
if "category" in test_results.columns:
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
cat_error = test_results.groupby("category")["pct_error"].mean().sort_values()
sns.barplot(x=cat_error.index, y=cat_error.values)
plt.title("Mean Percentage Error by Category")
plt.xlabel("Category")
plt.ylabel("Mean Percentage Error (%)")
plt.axhline(y=0, color="red", linestyle="--")
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.grid(True, linestyle="--", alpha=0.7)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "error_by_category.png"))
plt.close()
print(f"Error analysis visualizations saved to {output_dir}/")
def create_forecast_dashboard(
model, X_test, y_test, test_results, data, output_dir="visualizations"
):
"""
Create a comprehensive dashboard of forecast visualizations.
Args:
model: Trained model
X_test: Test features
y_test: Test target values
test_results: DataFrame with test results
data: Original data with date, store, item info
output_dir: Directory to save visualizations
"""
# Create all visualizations
print("Creating forecast visualizations...")
# 1. Individual store-item visualizations (limited to avoid too many plots)
# Get the top 20 store-item combinations by sales volume
store_item_sales = (
test_results.groupby(["store_name", "item_name"])["sales"].sum().reset_index()
)
top_combinations = store_item_sales.sort_values("sales", ascending=False).head(20)
# Filter test_results to include only these top combinations
top_results = pd.merge(
test_results,
top_combinations[["store_name", "item_name"]],
on=["store_name", "item_name"],
)
# Create visualizations for top combinations
visualize_predictions_by_store_item(top_results, output_dir)
# 2. Aggregated visualizations
visualize_aggregated_predictions(test_results, output_dir)
# 3. Error distribution and patterns
visualize_error_distribution(test_results, output_dir)
# 4. Try to create interactive dashboard if plotly is available
create_interactive_dashboard(test_results, output_dir)
print("Forecast visualization dashboard created successfully!")
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