src/streamlit_app.py

import streamlit as st
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import plotly.express as px
import plotly.graph_objects as go
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller, acf, pacf
from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf, plot_pacf
from statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters import ExponentialSmoothing
from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
from prophet import Prophet
from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error, mean_squared_error
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import io
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")

# Metadata
AUTHOR = "Eduardo Nacimiento García"
EMAIL = "enacimie@ull.edu.es"
LICENSE = "Apache 2.0"

# Page config
st.set_page_config(
    page_title="SimpleTS",
    page_icon="📈",
    layout="wide",
    initial_sidebar_state="expanded",
)

# Title
st.title("📈 SimpleTS")
st.markdown(f"**Author:** {AUTHOR} | **Email:** {EMAIL} | **License:** {LICENSE}")
st.write("""
Upload a time series CSV or use the demo dataset to visualize, analyze, and forecast your data.
""")

# === GENERATE DEMO TIME SERIES ===
@st.cache_data
def create_demo_ts(freq='D', periods=365):
    np.random.seed(42)
    date_rng = pd.date_range(start='2023-01-01', periods=periods, freq=freq)
    # Create trend + seasonality + noise
    trend = np.linspace(100, 200, periods)
    if freq in ['D', 'W']:
        seasonality = 20 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * np.arange(periods) / 365.25)
    elif freq == 'M':
        seasonality = 25 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * np.arange(periods) / 12)
    noise = np.random.normal(0, 5, periods)
    values = trend + seasonality + noise
    df = pd.DataFrame({
        'Date': date_rng,
        'Value': values
    })
    return df

# === LOAD DATA ===
if "demo_loaded" not in st.session_state:
    st.session_state.demo_loaded = False
    st.session_state.freq = 'D'

col1, col2, col3 = st.columns(3)
with col1:
    if st.button("🧪 Load Daily Demo"):
        st.session_state.demo_loaded = True
        st.session_state.freq = 'D'
        st.session_state.df = create_demo_ts('D', 365)
        st.success("✅ Daily demo loaded!")
with col2:
    if st.button("🧪 Load Monthly Demo"):
        st.session_state.demo_loaded = True
        st.session_state.freq = 'M'
        st.session_state.df = create_demo_ts('M', 48)
        st.success("✅ Monthly demo loaded!")
with col3:
    if st.button("🧪 Load Weekly Demo"):
        st.session_state.demo_loaded = True
        st.session_state.freq = 'W'
        st.session_state.df = create_demo_ts('W', 104)
        st.success("✅ Weekly demo loaded!")

uploaded_file = st.file_uploader("📂 Upload your time series CSV (must have a date and a value column)", type=["csv"])

# Use demo or uploaded file
if uploaded_file:
    df = pd.read_csv(uploaded_file)
    st.session_state.df = df
    st.session_state.demo_loaded = False
    st.success("✅ File uploaded successfully.")
elif "df" in st.session_state:
    df = st.session_state.df
    freq = st.session_state.freq
    if st.session_state.demo_loaded:
        st.info(f"Using **{freq}** frequency demo dataset.")
else:
    df = None
    st.info("👆 Upload a CSV or load a demo dataset to begin.")
    st.stop()

# Show data preview
with st.expander("🔍 Data Preview (first 10 rows)"):
    st.dataframe(df.head(10))

# === SELECT DATE AND VALUE COLUMNS ===
st.subheader("📅 Configure Time Series")

date_col = st.selectbox("Select date column:", df.columns)
value_col = st.selectbox("Select value column:", [col for col in df.columns if col != date_col])

# Convert to datetime and set index
try:
    df[date_col] = pd.to_datetime(df[date_col])
    df = df.set_index(date_col).sort_index()
    ts = df[value_col]
    st.success("✅ Time series configured successfully.")
except Exception as e:
    st.error(f"❌ Error processing date column: {e}")
    st.stop()

# Plot original series
st.subheader("📊 Original Time Series")
fig = px.line(x=ts.index, y=ts.values, labels={'x': 'Date', 'y': value_col}, title="Original Time Series")
st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)

# === TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ===
st.header("🔬 Time Series Analysis")

# Stationarity test (ADF)
st.subheader("📉 Stationarity Test (ADF)")
adf_result = adfuller(ts.dropna())
st.write(f"- **ADF Statistic:** {adf_result[0]:.4f}")
st.write(f"- **p-value:** {adf_result[1]:.4f}")
if adf_result[1] < 0.05:
    st.success("🟢 Series is stationary (p < 0.05)")
else:
    st.warning("🟠 Series is non-stationary (p >= 0.05) — consider differencing")

# Seasonal Decomposition
st.subheader("🎯 Seasonal Decomposition")
period_options = {
    'D': 365,
    'W': 52,
    'M': 12,
    'Q': 4,
    'Y': 1
}
freq = st.session_state.freq if st.session_state.demo_loaded else 'D'
default_period = period_options.get(freq, 12)

period = st.number_input("Seasonal period (e.g., 12 for monthly, 365 for daily):", 
                        min_value=2, value=default_period, step=1)

try:
    decomposition = seasonal_decompose(ts.dropna(), model='additive', period=int(period), extrapolate_trend='freq')
    
    # Plot decomposition
    fig = go.Figure()
    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=decomposition.observed.index, y=decomposition.observed, mode='lines', name='Observed'))
    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=decomposition.trend.index, y=decomposition.trend, mode='lines', name='Trend'))
    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=decomposition.seasonal.index, y=decomposition.seasonal, mode='lines', name='Seasonal'))
    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=decomposition.resid.index, y=decomposition.resid, mode='lines', name='Residual'))
    fig.update_layout(title="Seasonal Decomposition", height=600)
    st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
except Exception as e:
    st.error(f"Could not decompose series: {e}")

# ACF / PACF Plots (CORREGIDO)
st.subheader("🔗 Autocorrelation (ACF) & Partial Autocorrelation (PACF)")

# Calculate safe max lags (must be < 50% of sample size for PACF)
n = len(ts.dropna())
safe_max_lag = max(1, int(n * 0.49))  # Must be strictly less than 50%

# Adjust slider dynamically
max_lags_default = min(40, safe_max_lag)
max_lags = st.slider(
    "Max lags:",
    min_value=1,
    max_value=safe_max_lag,
    value=max_lags_default,
    step=1,
    help=f"Max allowed lags: {safe_max_lag} (based on sample size: {n})"
)

col1, col2 = st.columns(2)

with col1:
    st.write("**ACF Plot**")
    fig_acf, ax_acf = plt.subplots(figsize=(6, 4))
    plot_acf(ts.dropna(), lags=max_lags, ax=ax_acf)
    st.pyplot(fig_acf)

with col2:
    st.write("**PACF Plot**")
    try:
        fig_pacf, ax_pacf = plt.subplots(figsize=(6, 4))
        plot_pacf(ts.dropna(), lags=max_lags, ax=ax_pacf)
        st.pyplot(fig_pacf)
    except Exception as e:
        st.error(f"Could not generate PACF plot: {e}")
        st.write("Try reducing the number of lags.")

# === FORECASTING MODELS ===
st.header("🤖 Forecasting Models")

# Train/test split
test_size = st.slider("Test set size (as % of data):", min_value=5, max_value=40, value=20, step=5)
split_point = int(len(ts) * (1 - test_size/100))
train, test = ts[:split_point], ts[split_point:]

st.write(f"Training on {len(train)} points, testing on {len(test)} points.")

model_choice = st.selectbox("Choose forecasting model:", 
                           ["Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing", "ARIMA", "Prophet"])

# Initialize forecast variable
forecast = None
model = None

if model_choice == "Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing":
    seasonal_periods = st.number_input("Seasonal periods:", min_value=2, value=period, step=1)
    try:
        hw_model = ExponentialSmoothing(
            train,
            trend='add',
            seasonal='add',
            seasonal_periods=seasonal_periods
        ).fit()
        forecast = hw_model.forecast(len(test))
        model = hw_model
    except Exception as e:
        st.error(f"Could not fit Holt-Winters model: {e}")

elif model_choice == "ARIMA":
    col1, col2, col3 = st.columns(3)
    p = col1.number_input("AR order (p):", min_value=0, max_value=5, value=1)
    d = col2.number_input("Differencing order (d):", min_value=0, max_value=2, value=1)
    q = col3.number_input("MA order (q):", min_value=0, max_value=5, value=1)
    try:
        arima_model = ARIMA(train, order=(p, d, q)).fit()
        forecast = arima_model.forecast(len(test))
        model = arima_model
    except Exception as e:
        st.error(f"Could not fit ARIMA model: {e}")

elif model_choice == "Prophet":
    # Prepare data for Prophet
    prophet_df = pd.DataFrame({
        'ds': train.index,
        'y': train.values
    })
    try:
        prophet_model = Prophet(
            yearly_seasonality=True if freq in ['D', 'W'] else False,
            weekly_seasonality=True if freq == 'D' else False,
            daily_seasonality=False
        )
        if freq == 'M':
            prophet_model.add_seasonality(name='monthly', period=30.5, fourier_order=5)
        prophet_model.fit(prophet_df)
        
        # Forecast
        future = pd.DataFrame({'ds': test.index})
        forecast_df = prophet_model.predict(future)
        forecast = forecast_df['yhat'].values
        model = prophet_model
    except Exception as e:
        st.error(f"Could not fit Prophet model: {e}")

# Show results if forecast exists
if forecast is not None:
    # Metrics
    mae = mean_absolute_error(test, forecast)
    mse = mean_squared_error(test, forecast)
    rmse = np.sqrt(mse)
    
    st.subheader("📈 Forecast Results")
    col1, col2, col3 = st.columns(3)
    col1.metric("MAE", f"{mae:.2f}")
    col2.metric("MSE", f"{mse:.2f}")
    col3.metric("RMSE", f"{rmse:.2f}")

    # Plot forecast vs actual
    fig = go.Figure()
    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=train.index, y=train, mode='lines', name='Training', line=dict(color='blue')))
    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=test.index, y=test, mode='lines', name='Actual', line=dict(color='green')))
    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=test.index, y=forecast, mode='lines+markers', name='Forecast', line=dict(color='red', dash='dash')))
    fig.update_layout(
        title=f"{model_choice} Forecast",
        xaxis_title="Date",
        yaxis_title=value_col,
        legend=dict(x=0, y=1)
    )
    st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)

    # Allow forecasting into future
    st.subheader("🔮 Forecast Future Periods")
    future_periods = st.number_input("Number of future periods to forecast:", min_value=1, max_value=365, value=30, step=1)
    
    if st.button("🚀 Generate Future Forecast"):
        try:
            if model_choice == "Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing":
                future_forecast = model.forecast(future_periods)
                last_date = ts.index[-1]
                if freq == 'D':
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.Timedelta(days=1), periods=future_periods, freq='D')
                elif freq == 'W':
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.Timedelta(weeks=1), periods=future_periods, freq='W')
                elif freq == 'M':
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.DateOffset(months=1), periods=future_periods, freq='M')
                else:
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.Timedelta(days=1), periods=future_periods, freq='D')
                
            elif model_choice == "ARIMA":
                future_forecast = model.forecast(future_periods)
                last_date = ts.index[-1]
                if freq == 'D':
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.Timedelta(days=1), periods=future_periods, freq='D')
                elif freq == 'W':
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.Timedelta(weeks=1), periods=future_periods, freq='W')
                elif freq == 'M':
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.DateOffset(months=1), periods=future_periods, freq='M')
                else:
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.Timedelta(days=1), periods=future_periods, freq='D')
                
            elif model_choice == "Prophet":
                last_date = ts.index[-1]
                if freq == 'D':
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.Timedelta(days=1), periods=future_periods, freq='D')
                elif freq == 'W':
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.Timedelta(weeks=1), periods=future_periods, freq='W')
                elif freq == 'M':
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.DateOffset(months=1), periods=future_periods, freq='M')
                else:
                    future_dates = pd.date_range(start=last_date + pd.Timedelta(days=1), periods=future_periods, freq='D')
                
                future_df = pd.DataFrame({'ds': future_dates})
                forecast_df = model.predict(future_df)
                future_forecast = forecast_df['yhat'].values

            # Plot future forecast
            fig_future = go.Figure()
            fig_future.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=ts.index, y=ts.values, mode='lines', name='Historical', line=dict(color='blue')))
            fig_future.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=future_dates, y=future_forecast, mode='lines+markers', name='Future Forecast', line=dict(color='red', dash='dash')))
            fig_future.update_layout(
                title="Future Forecast",
                xaxis_title="Date",
                yaxis_title=value_col
            )
            st.plotly_chart(fig_future, use_container_width=True)

            # Show as table
            forecast_df = pd.DataFrame({
                'Date': future_dates,
                'Forecast': future_forecast
            })
            with st.expander("📋 View Forecast Table"):
                st.dataframe(forecast_df)

        except Exception as e:
            st.error(f"Could not generate future forecast: {e}")

# Footer
st.markdown("---")
st.caption(f"© {AUTHOR} | License {LICENSE} | Contact: {EMAIL}")