Spaces:
Sleeping
Sleeping
File size: 28,058 Bytes
558db1e | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 | import os
import sys
if sys.stdout.encoding.lower() != 'utf-8':
sys.stdout.reconfigure(encoding='utf-8')
import time
import json
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Dict, Any, List
# βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# IMPORT OUR CUSTOM MODULES
# βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
from config import load_config, save_config, Color, hr, MODEL_NAMES, SPREAD_BY_SECTOR, COST_BASIS_FILE, logger, OUTPUT_DIR
from core_types import PortfolioState
from data import fetch_risk_free_rate, fetch_fama_french_factors, fetch_data, fetch_risk_free_series, build_monthly_returns
from solver import build_and_optimize
from analytics import (
portfolio_sensitivity, portfolio_stress_test, backtest,
behavioral_diagnostics, build_macro
)
from utils.metrics import portfolio_gross_metrics, israelsen_sharpe
from backtest import (
monte_carlo, expanding_window_backtest
)
from report import _ensure_chartjs, generate_html_report
from exports import export_csv, export_excel
from server import serve_report
from futures_overlay import optimize_futures_overlay
from overlay_analytics import aggregate_overlay_returns, simulate_margin_calls
# Advanced Quant Modules
from risk_attribution import factor_exposure, marginal_var, cvar_attribution, stress_correlation
from regime_detection import detect_volatility_regime, dynamic_risk_aversion
from validation import (
christoffersen_test,
diebold_mariano_test,
probabilistic_sharpe_ratio,
deflated_sharpe_ratio,
print_validation_report
)
# Unified Database Access
from database import get_pg_engine
# βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# DYNAMIC TICKER UNIVERSE & CLI WIZARD
# βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
def _print_universe(cfg):
print(f"\n{Color.DIM} ββ Available symbols by asset class βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ")
categories = cfg.get("universe_categories", {})
if not categories:
categories = {
"Core Equities": ["SPY", "QQQ", "DIA", "IWM"],
"Bonds & Rates": ["TLT", "IEF", "SHY", "AGG"],
"Tech & Growth": ["AAPL", "MSFT", "NVDA", "TSLA"],
}
for cat, tks in categories.items():
display_tks = tks[:12]
row = " ".join(f"{t:<11}" for t in display_tks)
print(f" β {Color.CYAN}{cat:<20}{Color.RESET}{Color.DIM} {row}")
print(f" ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ{Color.RESET}")
def _section(title, color=Color.CYAN):
print(f"\n{color}{Color.BOLD}{chr(8212)*58}")
print(f" {title}")
print(f"{chr(8212)*58}{Color.RESET}")
def setup_portfolio(cfg):
risk_map = {1:0.1,2:0.5,3:1.0,4:2.0,5:3.0,6:5.0,7:7.5,8:10.0,9:15.0,10:25.0}
try: os.system("cls" if os.name == "nt" else "clear")
except Exception: pass
print(f"\n{Color.BOLD}{Color.MAGENTA}ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ")
print("β QUANTITATIVE PORTFOLIO BUILDER v8.0 β")
print("β Global Institutional Optimization Engine β")
print(f"ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ{Color.RESET}")
_section("STEP 1 OF 5 β Regional & Market Settings")
curr_in = input(f" {Color.BOLD}Base Currency Symbol [{cfg.get('currency_symbol', '$')}]:{Color.RESET} ").strip()
if curr_in: cfg['currency_symbol'] = curr_in
days_in = input(f" {Color.BOLD}Trading Days per Year [{cfg.get('trading_days_per_year', 252)}]:{Color.RESET} ").strip()
if days_in.isdigit(): cfg['trading_days_per_year'] = int(days_in)
_section("STEP 2 OF 5 β Your Current Portfolio")
_print_universe(cfg)
current_weights_raw = {}
while True:
try: line = input(f" {Color.BOLD}>{Color.RESET} ").strip().upper()
except (EOFError, KeyboardInterrupt): break
if not line: break
parts = line.replace(",", " ").split()
if len(parts) >= 2:
try:
t, w = parts[0], float(parts[1].replace("%", ""))
current_weights_raw[t] = w
except ValueError: pass
if current_weights_raw:
total_w = sum(current_weights_raw.values())
if total_w > 0: current_weights_raw = {t: w/total_w for t, w in current_weights_raw.items()}
for t in current_weights_raw:
if t not in cfg.get("sector_map", {}): cfg.setdefault("sector_map", {})[t] = "Other"
tickers = list(current_weights_raw.keys())
else:
raw = input(f" {Color.BOLD}Tickers (comma-separated):{Color.RESET} ").upper().replace(" ", "")
tickers = [t for t in raw.split(",") if t] or ["SPY", "TLT", "GLD"]
for t in tickers:
if t not in cfg.get("sector_map", {}): cfg.setdefault("sector_map", {})[t] = "Other"
try: capital = float(input(f" {Color.BOLD}Portfolio value:{Color.RESET} ").replace(",", ""))
except ValueError: capital = 100_000.0
_section("STEP 3 OF 5 β Risk Aversion")
try:
ri = int(input(f"\n {Color.BOLD}Risk Aversion (1-10):{Color.RESET} "))
if ri not in risk_map: raise ValueError
risk_input, risk_factor = ri, risk_map[ri]
except ValueError: risk_input, risk_factor = 5, 3.0
_section("STEP 4 OF 5 β Expected Return Model")
try:
mi_in = int(input(f" {Color.BOLD}Return Model (1-5):{Color.RESET} "))
if mi_in not in MODEL_NAMES: raise ValueError
model = mi_in
except ValueError: model = 1
try: ae_in = int(input(f" {Color.BOLD}Allocation Engine (1-2):{Color.RESET} "))
except ValueError: ae_in = 1
allocation_engine = ae_in if ae_in in [1, 2] else 1
_section("STEP 5 OF 5 β Tax & Advanced Risk Constraints")
tax_lt = cfg.get("tax_rate_lt", 0.20)
tax_st = cfg.get("tax_rate_st", 0.35)
cfg["tax_rate_lt"], cfg["tax_rate_st"] = tax_lt, tax_st
cfg["tax_enabled"] = tax_lt > 0
cfg["_use_saved_basis"] = cfg["tax_enabled"] and os.path.exists(COST_BASIS_FILE)
allow_ss = False
if allow_ss:
cfg["single_asset_min"] = -0.30
cfg["gross_leverage_cap"] = 1.5
cfg["short_borrow_cost"] = 0.015
else:
cfg["single_asset_min"] = 0.0
cfg["gross_leverage_cap"] = 1.0
cfg["short_borrow_cost"] = 0.0
cfg["garch_enabled"] = True
cfg["cvar_enabled"] = True
return tickers, capital, risk_input, risk_factor, model, allocation_engine, current_weights_raw
def build_spread_map(tickers, sector_map):
return {t: SPREAD_BY_SECTOR.get(sector_map.get(t, "Other"), 0.0008) for t in tickers}
def load_portfolio_state_dict():
if os.path.exists(COST_BASIS_FILE):
try:
with open(COST_BASIS_FILE) as f: return json.load(f)
except Exception: pass
return {}
def save_portfolio_state_dict(weights, prices, capital, existing_state=None):
state = {k: dict(v) for k, v in (existing_state or {}).items() if not k.startswith('_')}
today = time.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
for t, w in weights.items():
price = prices.get(t, 0.0)
if price <= 0: continue
new_alloc = capital * w
new_shares = new_alloc / price if abs(w) > 0.001 else 0.0
if new_shares < 0.0001:
state.pop(t, None)
continue
if t in state and state[t].get('shares', 0) > 0:
old_shares = state[t]['shares']
old_avg_cost = state[t]['avg_cost']
new_avg_cost = (old_shares * old_avg_cost + (new_shares - old_shares) * price) / new_shares if new_shares > old_shares else old_avg_cost
state[t].update({'avg_cost': round(new_avg_cost, 4), 'shares': round(new_shares, 6), 'last_updated': today})
else:
state[t] = {'avg_cost': round(price, 4), 'shares': round(new_shares, 6), 'purchase_date': today, 'last_updated': today}
state['_metadata'] = {
"disclaimer": "Note: Prices used here may be synthetic or stale based on the last backtest. Do not use for live accounting.",
"last_generated": today
}
with open(COST_BASIS_FILE, 'w') as f:
json.dump(state, f, indent=2)
return state
def _force_liquidate_for_margin(weights, prices, shortfall, capital, cfg):
if shortfall >= 0 or weights.empty: return weights
weights = weights.copy()
long_positions = sorted([t for t in weights.index if t != "CASH" and weights.get(t, 0.0) > 0], key=lambda t: -float(abs(weights.get(t, 0.0))))
remaining = -shortfall
for ticker in long_positions:
price = prices.get(ticker, 0.0)
if price <= 0: continue
max_reducible = float(weights[ticker]) * capital
sell_amount = min(max_reducible, remaining)
weight_reduction = sell_amount / capital
weights[ticker] = float(weights[ticker]) - weight_reduction
weights["CASH"] = float(weights.get("CASH", 0.0)) + weight_reduction
remaining -= sell_amount
if remaining <= 0: break
return weights
# βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# PIPELINE DATA STRUCTURES
# βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
@dataclass
class ValidationBundle:
oos_eq: pd.Series
oos_bench_curve: pd.Series
oos_port_rets: pd.Series
wf_ann_ret: float
var_results: dict
dm_results: dict
psr_results: dict
dsr_results: dict
@dataclass
class OptimizationBundle:
weights: pd.Series
exp_rets: pd.Series
cov_mat: pd.DataFrame
vol: float
corr_matrix: pd.DataFrame
betas: pd.Series
model_info: dict
sens_report: dict
stress_report: dict
n_fragile: int
# βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# PIPELINE ORCHESTRATOR
# βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
class PortfolioPipeline:
def __init__(self, overrides=None):
self.cfg = load_config()
self.overrides = overrides or {}
# Determine execution mode
if overrides:
logger.info("Executing in Headless Orchestrator Mode with overrides.")
self.tickers = self.overrides.get('tickers', ["SPY", "TLT", "GLD"])
self.capital = self.overrides.get('capital', 100000.0)
self.risk_input = self.overrides.get('risk_input', 5)
self.risk_factor = self.overrides.get('risk_factor', 3.0)
self.model = self.overrides.get('model', 1)
self.allocation_engine = self.overrides.get('allocation_engine', 1)
self.current_weights_raw = self.overrides.get('current_weights_raw', {})
for k, v in self.overrides.get('cfg_overrides', {}).items():
self.cfg[k] = v
for t in self.tickers + list(self.current_weights_raw.keys()):
if t not in self.cfg.get("sector_map", {}):
self.cfg.setdefault("sector_map", {})[t] = "Other"
else:
t, c, ri, rf, m, ae, cw = setup_portfolio(self.cfg)
self.tickers, self.capital, self.risk_input, self.risk_factor = t, c, ri, rf
self.model, self.allocation_engine, self.current_weights_raw = m, ae, cw
save_config(self.cfg)
self.chartjs_js = _ensure_chartjs()
self.trading_days = self.cfg.get("trading_days_per_year", 252)
# State populated through pipeline
self.data_bundle = {}
def load_data(self) -> None:
"""Fetches market data, sets up benchmarks and populates legacy state via DataRepository."""
from data_repository import DataRepository
repo = DataRepository(self.cfg)
snap = repo.fetch_all(self.tickers, self.model)
self.ff_df = snap.opt_ff_df
self.rfr = snap.rfr
self.spread_map = snap.spread_map
self.legacy_state_dict = snap.master_state.to_dict() if hasattr(snap.master_state, 'to_dict') else {}
self.vol_raw = snap.vol_raw
self.opt_tickers = snap.opt_tickers
self.opt_returns_df = snap.opt_returns_df
self.bench_rets_monthly = snap.bench_rets_monthly
self.opt_ff_df = snap.opt_ff_df
self.display_df = snap.display_df
self.bench_display = snap.bench_display
self.final_tickers = snap.master_state.tickers
self.master_state = snap.master_state
self.train_yrs = snap.train_yrs
self.OOS_TEST_DAYS = int(snap.test_yrs * self.trading_days)
self.OOS_TRAIN_DAYS = int(snap.train_yrs * self.trading_days)
self.test_yrs = snap.test_yrs
self.tn_ratio = (len(snap.opt_returns_df) if snap.opt_returns_df is not None else 0) / max(len(snap.opt_tickers), 1)
vix_current = float(self.vol_raw.iloc[-1]) if self.vol_raw is not None and not self.vol_raw.empty else 0.0
self.risk_adj = None
if self.cfg.get("dynamic_risk", True):
orig_ri, orig_rf = self.risk_input, self.risk_factor
self.risk_input, self.risk_factor = dynamic_risk_aversion(vix_current, orig_ri, orig_rf, silent=False)
self.risk_adj = {"original_input": orig_ri, "adjusted_input": self.risk_input, "vix_val": vix_current}
self.regime_info = detect_volatility_regime(snap.bench_rets, cfg=self.cfg, silent=False) if self.cfg.get("hmm_regime", True) else None
self.data_bundle = {
"returns_df": snap.returns_df, "bench_rets": snap.bench_rets,
"raw": snap.raw, "prices": snap.prices, "eq_bench": snap.eq_bench,
"vol_bench": snap.vol_bench, "rfr_bench": snap.rfr_bench
}
def run_validation(self) -> ValidationBundle:
returns_df = self.data_bundle["returns_df"]
bench_rets = self.data_bundle["bench_rets"]
reb_freq = int(self.trading_days / 4)
self.cfg['_risk_input'] = self.risk_input
self.cfg['_risk_factor'] = self.risk_factor
oos_eq, oos_bench_curve = expanding_window_backtest(
returns_df, bench_rets, self.capital, self.rfr, self.cfg, self.model, self.allocation_engine,
self.spread_map, initial_train_days=self.OOS_TRAIN_DAYS, rebalance_freq=reb_freq, ff_df=self.ff_df
)
oos_port_rets = oos_eq.pct_change().dropna()
oos_rets_arr = oos_port_rets.values
total_days = len(oos_rets_arr)
n_yrs_wf = total_days / self.trading_days if total_days > 0 else 1.0
wf_ann_ret = float((oos_eq.iloc[-1] / self.capital) ** (1 / max(n_yrs_wf, 0.01)) - 1.0)
cvar_alpha = self.cfg.get('cvar_alpha', 0.95)
rolling_var = -oos_port_rets.rolling(window=self.trading_days).quantile(1 - cvar_alpha).bfill().values
var_results = christoffersen_test(oos_rets_arr, rolling_var, target_alpha=round(1.0 - cvar_alpha, 2))
sim_state = PortfolioState.empty(self.final_tickers)
temp_macro = {"hmm_regime": self.regime_info} if self.regime_info else {}
opt_res_cv = build_and_optimize(
returns_df.iloc[:self.OOS_TRAIN_DAYS], bench_rets.iloc[:self.OOS_TRAIN_DAYS],
self.risk_input, self.risk_factor, sim_state, self.cfg, self.model, self.allocation_engine,
self.ff_df, spread_map=self.spread_map, macro=temp_macro, silent=True,
opt_rets_df=returns_df.iloc[:self.OOS_TRAIN_DAYS], opt_spy_rets=bench_rets.iloc[:self.OOS_TRAIN_DAYS], opt_ff_df=self.ff_df
)
oos_w_risky = opt_res_cv.weights.drop(labels=['CASH'], errors='ignore')
oos_cash_w = float(opt_res_cv.weights.get('CASH', 0.0))
rfr_scalar = self.rfr.mean() if isinstance(self.rfr, pd.Series) else self.rfr
oos_opt_ret = float(oos_w_risky @ opt_res_cv.expected_returns.reindex(oos_w_risky.index).fillna(0.0)) + (oos_cash_w * rfr_scalar)
naive_exp_rets = returns_df.iloc[:self.OOS_TRAIN_DAYS].mean() * self.trading_days
naive_opt_ret = float(oos_w_risky @ naive_exp_rets.reindex(oos_w_risky.index).fillna(0.0)) + (oos_cash_w * rfr_scalar)
pred_model = np.full(len(oos_rets_arr), oos_opt_ret / self.trading_days)
pred_naive = np.full(len(oos_rets_arr), naive_opt_ret / self.trading_days)
dm_results = diebold_mariano_test(oos_rets_arr, pred_model, pred_naive, h=1, loss_type='MAE')
dm_results['winner'] = f"{MODEL_NAMES.get(self.model).split(' ')[0]}" if dm_results['winner'] == "Model 1" else "Naive Mean"
psr_results = probabilistic_sharpe_ratio(oos_rets_arr, benchmark_sharpe=0.0, periods=self.trading_days)
dsr_results = deflated_sharpe_ratio(oos_rets_arr, num_trials=len(MODEL_NAMES), variance_of_trials=0.5, periods=self.trading_days)
print_validation_report(dm_results, var_results, psr_results, dsr_results, model_name=f"{MODEL_NAMES.get(self.model).split(' ')[0]}")
return ValidationBundle(oos_eq, oos_bench_curve, oos_port_rets, wf_ann_ret, var_results, dm_results, psr_results, dsr_results)
def optimize(self) -> OptimizationBundle:
returns_df = self.data_bundle["returns_df"]
bench_rets = self.data_bundle["bench_rets"]
raw = self.data_bundle["raw"]
temp_macro = {"hmm_regime": self.regime_info} if self.regime_info else {}
opt_res = build_and_optimize(
returns_df, bench_rets, self.risk_input, self.risk_factor, self.master_state, self.cfg,
self.model, self.allocation_engine, self.ff_df, spread_map=self.spread_map, macro=temp_macro, silent=False,
opt_rets_df=self.opt_returns_df, opt_spy_rets=self.bench_rets_monthly, opt_ff_df=self.opt_ff_df
)
weights = opt_res.weights
exp_rets = opt_res.expected_returns
cov_mat = opt_res.covariance_matrix
vol = opt_res.volatility
corr_matrix = opt_res.correlation_matrix
betas = opt_res.betas
model_info = opt_res.model_info
sens_report = portfolio_sensitivity(weights, returns_df, bench_rets, exp_rets, cov_mat, self.risk_factor, self.risk_input, self.cfg, betas, self.spread_map)
stress_report = portfolio_stress_test(weights, returns_df, raw, betas)
stab_spreads = np.array([sens_report.get(t, {}).get('spread', 0.0) for t in returns_df.columns], dtype=float)
fragile_mask = stab_spreads > 0.15
n_fragile = int(fragile_mask.sum())
if n_fragile > 0 and self.allocation_engine == 1:
self.cfg['_stability_spreads'] = stab_spreads.tolist()
self.cfg['_stab_lambda'] = float(self.risk_factor * 0.5 * (n_fragile / len(stab_spreads)))
opt_res_fragile = build_and_optimize(
returns_df, bench_rets, self.risk_input, self.risk_factor, self.master_state, self.cfg,
self.model, self.allocation_engine, self.ff_df, spread_map=self.spread_map, macro=temp_macro, silent=False,
opt_rets_df=self.opt_returns_df, opt_spy_rets=self.bench_rets_monthly, opt_ff_df=self.opt_ff_df
)
weights, exp_rets, cov_mat = opt_res_fragile.weights, opt_res_fragile.expected_returns, opt_res_fragile.covariance_matrix
vol, corr_matrix, betas = opt_res_fragile.volatility, opt_res_fragile.correlation_matrix, opt_res_fragile.betas
model_info = opt_res_fragile.model_info
self.cfg['_stab_lambda'] = 0.0
return OptimizationBundle(weights, exp_rets, cov_mat, vol, corr_matrix, betas, model_info, sens_report, stress_report, n_fragile)
def generate_reports(self, val: ValidationBundle, opt: OptimizationBundle) -> None:
prices = self.data_bundle["prices"]
raw = self.data_bundle["raw"]
returns_df = self.data_bundle["returns_df"]
w_risky = opt.weights.drop(labels=['CASH'], errors='ignore')
mvar_series = marginal_var(w_risky, opt.cov_mat, alpha=0.95)
if 'CASH' in opt.weights: mvar_series['CASH'] = 0.0
c_cvar, t_cvar = cvar_attribution(w_risky, self.display_df, alpha=0.95)
_, s_vol = stress_correlation(w_risky, opt.cov_mat, shock_corr=0.30)
factor_exposures = factor_exposure(w_risky, opt.model_info['ff_betas']) if self.model == 4 and 'ff_betas' in opt.model_info else None
macro_series = []
for label, key in [(self.data_bundle["eq_bench"], self.data_bundle["eq_bench"]), ("VIX_PROXY", self.data_bundle["vol_bench"]), ("RFR_PROXY", self.data_bundle["rfr_bench"])]:
if key in raw and label not in returns_df.columns:
macro_series.append(raw[key].pct_change().rename(label))
corr_matrix_html = pd.concat([self.display_df] + macro_series, axis=1, sort=False).dropna().corr() if macro_series else opt.corr_matrix
if 'CASH' in corr_matrix_html.columns: corr_matrix_html = corr_matrix_html.drop(index=['CASH'], columns=['CASH'], errors='ignore')
equity, bench_curve_full, port_rets, bt_stats = backtest(self.display_df, opt.weights, self.capital, self.rfr, self.bench_display, self.spread_map, self.cfg, state=self.master_state, betas=opt.betas)
macro = build_macro(prices, raw, self.rfr, self.display_df, opt.weights.values, self.vol_raw, self.cfg)
if self.regime_info: macro["hmm_regime"] = self.regime_info
mc_paths, mc_stats = monte_carlo(opt.weights, opt.exp_rets, opt.cov_mat, self.capital, self.cfg, macro, seed=42)
diags = behavioral_diagnostics(opt.weights, self.display_df, opt.cov_mat, self.risk_input, bt_stats["max_dd"])
overlay_html = ""
if self.cfg.get("with_futures", False):
overlay_result = optimize_futures_overlay(opt.weights, opt.betas, self.capital, self.cfg, equity_returns=returns_df, prices=prices)
if overlay_result.cash_reserve < 0:
opt.weights = _force_liquidate_for_margin(opt.weights, prices, overlay_result.cash_reserve, self.capital, self.cfg)
contract_list = ", ".join(f"{v:+d} {k}" for k, v in overlay_result.contracts.items()) if overlay_result.contracts else "None"
overlay_html = f'<div class="card"><h3>Futures Overlay</h3><div class="mg"><div class="mc"><div class="ml">Contracts</div><div class="mv">{contract_list}</div></div></div></div>'
export_csv(opt.weights, opt.exp_rets, opt.vol, prices, self.capital, opt.betas, self.spread_map, self.cfg,
mvar_series=mvar_series, cvar_components=(c_cvar, t_cvar), factor_exp=factor_exposures, tax_meta={})
if self.cfg.get("export_excel", False):
export_excel(opt.weights, opt.exp_rets, opt.vol, prices, self.capital, opt.betas, self.spread_map, self.cfg,
mvar_series=mvar_series, cvar_components=(c_cvar, t_cvar), factor_exp=factor_exposures, tax_meta={})
save_portfolio_state_dict(opt.weights, prices, self.capital, self.legacy_state_dict)
curr_w_series, current_stats = None, None
if self.current_weights_raw:
ok = {t: w for t, w in self.current_weights_raw.items() if t in returns_df.columns}
if ok:
tot = sum(ok.values())
curr_w_series = pd.Series({t: w/tot for t, w in ok.items()}, dtype=float).reindex(returns_df.columns).fillna(0.0)
curr_exp_ret = float(curr_w_series @ opt.exp_rets)
curr_vol_val = float(np.sqrt(curr_w_series @ opt.cov_mat.values @ curr_w_series))
rfr_scalar = self.rfr.iloc[-1] if isinstance(self.rfr, pd.Series) else self.rfr
curr_sr = israelsen_sharpe(curr_exp_ret - rfr_scalar, curr_vol_val)
curr_bt_full = backtest(self.display_df, curr_w_series, self.capital, self.rfr, self.bench_display, self.spread_map, self.cfg, state=self.master_state, betas=opt.betas)
_, curr_mc_stats = monte_carlo(curr_w_series, opt.exp_rets, opt.cov_mat, self.capital, self.cfg, macro, seed=42)
current_stats = {"exp_ret": curr_exp_ret, "exp_vol": curr_vol_val, "exp_sr": curr_sr, "beta": float(curr_w_series @ opt.betas), "bt": curr_bt_full, "mc": curr_mc_stats}
generate_html_report(
opt.weights, opt.exp_rets, opt.cov_mat, opt.vol, corr_matrix_html, opt.betas,
equity, bench_curve_full, port_rets, val.oos_eq, val.oos_bench_curve,
mc_paths, mc_stats, bt_stats, None,
self.capital, self.cfg, prices, macro, opt.model_info,
self.spread_map, opt.sens_report, opt.stress_report,
diags=diags, tax_meta={},
tn_ratio=self.tn_ratio, n_fragile=opt.n_fragile,
train_yrs=self.train_yrs, test_yrs=self.test_yrs,
returns_df=self.display_df, chartjs_js=self.chartjs_js,
current_weights=curr_w_series, current_stats=current_stats,
risk_input=self.risk_input, mvar_series=mvar_series,
cvar_components=(c_cvar, t_cvar), stressed_vol=s_vol,
factor_exp=factor_exposures, regime_info=self.regime_info,
risk_adj=self.risk_adj, dm_results=val.dm_results,
var_results=val.var_results, overlay_html=overlay_html
)
if self.cfg.get('_serve', True):
serve_report(block=not bool(self.overrides))
def run_engine(overrides=None, serve=True, preview_only=False):
"""
Main orchestration logic decomposed into a Pipeline pattern.
"""
pipeline = PortfolioPipeline(overrides=overrides)
pipeline.cfg['_serve'] = serve
pipeline.load_data()
if preview_only:
# In preview mode, skip validation and report generation
opt_bundle = pipeline.optimize()
return {
"target_weights": opt_bundle.weights.to_dict(),
"expected_returns": opt_bundle.exp_rets.to_dict(),
"volatility": opt_bundle.vol,
"prices": pipeline.data_bundle["prices"],
"efficient_frontier": opt_bundle.model_info.get('ef_curve', {"vols": [], "rets": []})
}
val_bundle = pipeline.run_validation()
opt_bundle = pipeline.optimize()
pipeline.generate_reports(val_bundle, opt_bundle)
# Return useful attributes for testing/api downstream hooks
return {
"target_weights": opt_bundle.weights.to_dict(),
"expected_returns": opt_bundle.exp_rets.to_dict(),
"volatility": opt_bundle.vol,
"prices": pipeline.data_bundle["prices"]
}
if __name__ == "__main__":
try:
run_engine()
except KeyboardInterrupt:
print(f"\n{Color.YELLOW}Interrupted.{Color.RESET}")
except SystemExit as e:
print(e)
except Exception as e:
import traceback
traceback.print_exc()
print(f"\nFatal error during headless execution: {e}")
|