import numpy as np import pandas as pd from scipy.linalg import cholesky import copy from config import Color, logger, DEFAULT_CONFIG from core_types import PortfolioState, LotManager, CovarianceResult from models import regime_stress_covariance from solver import build_and_optimize # ───────────────────────────────────────────── # MODULE-LEVEL IMPORTS # ───────────────────────────────────────────── # Note: Moved import to module level so runtime errors in execution.py aren't masked try: from execution import estimate_market_impact _HAS_EXECUTION = True except ImportError: _HAS_EXECUTION = False # ───────────────────────────────────────────── # UTILITY & METRIC FUNCTIONS from utils.metrics import israelsen_sharpe, portfolio_gross_metrics, liquidity_score, annual_returns # ───────────────────────────────────────────── # CORE BACKTESTING ENGINES # ───────────────────────────────────────────── def backtest(returns_df, weights, capital, rfr, spy_rets, spread_map, cfg, state: PortfolioState = None, betas: pd.Series = None): """ Standard historical backtest with transaction costs, Almgren-Chriss market impact, and heuristic state-driven tax-drag modeling (for single-period projections). """ trading_days = cfg.get("trading_days_per_year", 252) adv_proxy = cfg.get("default_adv_proxy", 50000000.0) w_risky = weights.drop(labels=['CASH'], errors='ignore') w_arr = w_risky.reindex(returns_df.columns).fillna(0.0).values cash_w = float(weights.get('CASH', 0.0)) if isinstance(rfr, pd.Series): rfr_aligned = rfr.reindex(returns_df.index).ffill().bfill().fillna(0.04) daily_rfr = (rfr_aligned / trading_days).values cash_growth = (1 + daily_rfr).cumprod() else: daily_rfr = rfr / trading_days cash_growth = (1 + daily_rfr) ** np.arange(1, len(returns_df) + 1) # True Buy-and-Hold Return Computation (Instead of Daily Rebalancing Approximation) asset_paths = (1 + returns_df.fillna(0)).cumprod().values allocated_capital_path = capital * (asset_paths @ w_arr) cash_path = capital * cash_w * cash_growth total_path = allocated_capital_path + cash_path port_daily_rets = np.diff(total_path, prepend=capital) / np.concatenate(([capital], total_path[:-1])) port_rets_series = pd.Series(port_daily_rets.copy(), index=returns_df.index) spy_aligned = spy_rets.reindex(returns_df.index).fillna(0.0) n = len(w_arr) # Note: Ensure state weights are identically shaped and aligned before subtracting if state and state.current_weights is not None and state.current_weights.size > 0: current_w_arr = pd.Series(state.current_weights, index=state.tickers).reindex(returns_df.columns).fillna(0.0).values else: current_w_arr = np.zeros(n) delta = w_arr - current_w_arr # 1. Friction Cost (Bid-Ask Spread + Brokerage) spreads = np.array([spread_map.get(t, 0.0008) for t in returns_df.columns]) if spread_map else np.full(n, 0.0008) trade_cost = cfg.get("transaction_cost", 0.001) total_friction_rate = np.sum(np.abs(delta) * (spreads + trade_cost), axis=0) # 2. Market Impact (Almgren-Chriss Square Root Model) impact_hit_rate = 0.0 if _HAS_EXECUTION: vols = returns_df.std().values for i, t_val in enumerate(delta): if abs(t_val) > 1e-4: trade_dollars = abs(t_val) * capital asset_vol = vols[i] if i < len(vols) else 0.015 impact_pct = estimate_market_impact(trade_dollars, adv_proxy, asset_vol) impact_hit_rate += impact_pct * abs(t_val) # 3. Precision Tax Drag (Heuristic aggregate since single-period lacks time-series prices) tax_hit_rate = 0.0 if cfg.get('tax_enabled', False) and state and current_w_arr.size > 0: if getattr(state, 'gain_fractions', None) is not None and getattr(state, 'tax_rates', None) is not None: if len(state.gain_fractions) == len(state.tickers) and len(state.tax_rates) == len(state.tickers): sells = np.maximum(current_w_arr - w_arr, 0.0) gain_fracs = pd.Series(state.gain_fractions, index=state.tickers).reindex(returns_df.columns).fillna(0.0).values tax_rates_aligned = pd.Series(state.tax_rates, index=state.tickers).reindex(returns_df.columns).fillna(0.0).values tax_hit_rate = np.sum(sells * gain_fracs * tax_rates_aligned) port_rets_series.iloc[0] -= (total_friction_rate + impact_hit_rate + tax_hit_rate) equity_curve = capital * (1 + port_rets_series).cumprod() bench_curve = capital * (1 + spy_aligned).cumprod() # Prepend the baseline (t=0) capital to ensure charting starts exactly at the baseline first_date = port_rets_series.index[0] - pd.Timedelta(days=1) equity_curve.loc[first_date] = capital bench_curve.loc[first_date] = capital equity_curve = equity_curve.sort_index() bench_curve = bench_curve.sort_index() total_days = len(port_rets_series) n_yrs = total_days / trading_days if total_days > 0 else 1.0 total_ret = float(equity_curve.iloc[-1] / capital - 1.0) ann_ret = (1 + total_ret) ** (1 / max(n_yrs, 0.01)) - 1.0 ann_vol = port_rets_series.std() * np.sqrt(trading_days) if isinstance(rfr, pd.Series): rfr_full = rfr.reindex(equity_curve.index).ffill().bfill().fillna(0.04) daily_rfr_full = (rfr_full / trading_days).values[1:] # drop t=0 else: daily_rfr_full = rfr / trading_days daily_excess = port_rets_series - daily_rfr_full ann_excess = daily_excess.mean() * trading_days sharpe = israelsen_sharpe(ann_excess, ann_vol) roll_max = equity_curve.cummax() drawdowns = (equity_curve - roll_max) / roll_max max_dd = float(drawdowns.min()) if not drawdowns.empty else 0.0 max_dd_date = drawdowns.idxmin() if not drawdowns.empty else None optimizer_failures = 0 total_rebalances = 0 is_dd = drawdowns < 0 dd_days = int(is_dd.groupby((~is_dd).cumsum()).sum().max()) if is_dd.any() else 0 # Note: Use semi-deviation instead of the standard deviation of negative subset sortino = 0.0 downside_sq = np.minimum(port_rets_series.values - daily_rfr_full, 0.0) ** 2 downside_vol = np.sqrt(downside_sq.mean()) * np.sqrt(trading_days) if downside_vol > 0: sortino = (ann_ret - (rfr.mean() if isinstance(rfr, pd.Series) else rfr)) / downside_vol calmar = ann_ret / abs(max_dd) if abs(max_dd) > 0.001 else 0.0 roll_mean = port_rets_series.rolling(trading_days).mean() * trading_days roll_std = port_rets_series.rolling(trading_days).std() * np.sqrt(trading_days) rolling_sharpe = (roll_mean - (rfr.mean() if isinstance(rfr, pd.Series) else rfr)) / roll_std stats = { "total_ret": total_ret, "ann_ret": ann_ret, "ann_vol": ann_vol, "sharpe": sharpe, "sortino": sortino, "calmar": calmar, "max_dd": max_dd, "dd_days": dd_days, "friction_paid": total_friction_rate * capital, "friction_rate": round(total_friction_rate * 100, 4), "impact_paid": impact_hit_rate * capital, "tax_paid": tax_hit_rate * capital, "max_dd_date": max_dd_date.date() if isinstance(max_dd_date, pd.Timestamp) else max_dd_date, "is_historical": True, "optimizer_failures": optimizer_failures, "optimizer_failure_rate": optimizer_failures / max(1, total_rebalances), # Note: Compute annual returns purely on daily return series, not on the equity_curve # which contains a T-0 prepend that distorts first-year geometry. "ann_rets": annual_returns(port_rets_series), "rolling_sharpe": rolling_sharpe } return equity_curve, bench_curve, port_rets_series, stats # ───────────────────────────────────────────── # SYSTEMIC STRESS & SENSITIVITY TESTING # ───────────────────────────────────────────── def portfolio_stress_test(weights, returns_df, raw_data, betas, durations=None): """ Parametric Scenario Generation (Phase 2). Evaluates portfolio impact across synthetic market and yield curve shocks. """ w = weights.drop(labels=['CASH'], errors='ignore') w_arr = w.reindex(returns_df.columns).fillna(0.0).values port_beta = float(w @ betas.reindex(w.index).fillna(0.0)) port_duration = float(w @ durations.reindex(w.index).fillna(0.0)) if durations is not None else 0.0 scenarios = [ {"name": "2008 Financial Crisis (Simulated)", "spy_drop": -0.55, "rate_shift": -0.04}, {"name": "2020 COVID Crash (Simulated)", "spy_drop": -0.33, "rate_shift": -0.015}, {"name": "Equity Market Shock (Moderate)", "spy_drop": -0.10, "rate_shift": 0.0}, {"name": "Equity Market Shock (Severe)", "spy_drop": -0.25, "rate_shift": 0.0}, {"name": "Interest Rate Spike (+100 bps)", "spy_drop": 0.0, "rate_shift": 0.01}, {"name": "Interest Rate Cut (-100 bps)", "spy_drop": 0.0, "rate_shift": -0.01}, {"name": "Stagflation (Equities Down, Rates Up)", "spy_drop": -0.15, "rate_shift": 0.015} ] results = [] for sc in scenarios: # Equity impact via Beta eq_impact = port_beta * sc["spy_drop"] # Fixed income impact via Duration: dP/P ≈ -Duration * dY fi_impact = -port_duration * sc["rate_shift"] total_impact = eq_impact + fi_impact trigger_desc = [] if sc["spy_drop"] != 0: trigger_desc.append(f"SPY {sc['spy_drop']*100:+.0f}%") if sc["rate_shift"] != 0: trigger_desc.append(f"Rates {sc['rate_shift']*10000:+.0f} bps") results.append({ "scenario": sc["name"], "trigger": " & ".join(trigger_desc) if trigger_desc else "No Shock", "impact": total_impact }) return results def liquidity_adjusted_var(weights, exp_rets, cov_mat, capital, spread_map, cfg=None, adv_proxy=50000000.0, conf_level=0.95, days=21): """ Computes Liquidity-Adjusted Value at Risk (LVaR). Standard VaR is adjusted by the exogenous liquidity cost of liquidation (half-spread + market impact). """ import scipy.stats as st w_risky = weights.drop(labels=['CASH'], errors='ignore') w_arr = w_risky.reindex(cov_mat.columns).fillna(0.0).values ac_gamma = cfg.get("tc_volume_profile", 0.10) if cfg else 0.10 # Standard Parametric VaR mu_p = float(w_arr @ exp_rets.reindex(cov_mat.columns).fillna(0.0)) vol_p = float(np.sqrt(w_arr @ cov_mat.values @ w_arr)) mu_h = mu_p * (days / 252.0) vol_h = vol_p * np.sqrt(days / 252.0) z_score = st.norm.ppf(conf_level) standard_var_pct = (z_score * vol_h) - mu_h # Liquidity Adjustment liquidity_cost_pct = 0.0 vols = np.sqrt(np.diag(cov_mat.values)) spreads = np.array([spread_map.get(t, 0.0008) for t in cov_mat.columns]) for i, t_val in enumerate(w_arr): if abs(t_val) > 1e-4: trade_dollars = abs(t_val * capital) spread_cost = (spreads[i] / 2.0) * abs(t_val) impact_pct = ac_gamma * vols[i] * np.sqrt(trade_dollars / adv_proxy) liquidity_cost_pct += spread_cost + (impact_pct * abs(t_val)) lvar_pct = standard_var_pct + liquidity_cost_pct return lvar_pct * capital def portfolio_sensitivity(weights, returns_df, benchmark_rets, exp_rets, cov_mat, risk_factor, risk_input, cfg, betas, spread_map, yield_df=None): """ Measures allocation stability by introducing noise into expected returns. Passes the true historical dataframe and shifts the specific ticker's mean to allow CAPM to calculate real covariance beta profiles against the shock. """ report = {} tickers = list(exp_rets.index) original_w = weights.drop(labels=['CASH'], errors='ignore') empty_state = PortfolioState.empty(tickers) trading_days = cfg.get("trading_days_per_year", 252) for t in tickers: w_orig = float(original_w.get(t, 0.0)) if abs(w_orig) < 0.01: continue w_min, w_max = w_orig, w_orig for shock in [-0.10, 0.10]: # Directly shock the annualized expected returns shocked_exp_rets = exp_rets.copy() shocked_exp_rets[t] += shock try: temp_cfg = copy.deepcopy(cfg) temp_cfg.garch_enabled = False temp_cfg.cvar_enabled = False opt_res = build_and_optimize( returns_df=returns_df, benchmark_rets=benchmark_rets, risk_input=risk_input, risk_factor=risk_factor, state=empty_state, cfg=temp_cfg, model=1, allocation_engine=1, ff_df=None, spread_map=spread_map, silent=True, yield_df=yield_df, override_exp_rets=shocked_exp_rets ) nw = float(opt_res.weights.get(t, 0.0)) w_min = min(w_min, nw) w_max = max(w_max, nw) except Exception as e: logger.error(f"Sensitivity optimization failed for {t}: {e}", exc_info=True) raise RuntimeError(f"Sensitivity optimization failed for {t}: {e}") from e report[t] = { "optimal": w_orig, "min": w_min, "max": w_max, "spread": w_max - w_min } jacobian = None try: import torch from differentiable_optimizer import DifferentiablePortfolioLayer n = len(tickers) # Note: the true bounds constraint uses allow_short=cfg.get("allow_short", False) layer = DifferentiablePortfolioLayer(n_assets=n, risk_factor=risk_factor, allow_short=cfg.get("allow_short", False)) Sigma = cov_mat.reindex(index=tickers, columns=tickers).fillna(0.0).values # Ridge for Cholesky stability L_val = np.linalg.cholesky(Sigma + np.eye(n)*1e-6) mu_tensor = torch.tensor(exp_rets.reindex(tickers).fillna(0.0).values, dtype=torch.float32, requires_grad=True) L_tensor = torch.tensor(L_val, dtype=torch.float32) def _f(mu_t): # forward expects (batch, n), returns (batch, n) w_out = layer(mu_t.unsqueeze(0), L_tensor.unsqueeze(0)) return w_out.squeeze(0) J = torch.autograd.functional.jacobian(_f, mu_tensor) jacobian = J.detach().numpy() except Exception as e: logger.warning(f"Could not compute gradient-based sensitivity jacobian: {e}") return { "report": report, "jacobian": jacobian, "tickers": tickers } # ───────────────────────────────────────────── # ───────────────────────────────────────────── # ───────────────────────────────────────────── # CONTEXT & DIAGNOSTIC HELPERS # ───────────────────────────────────────────── def build_macro(prices, raw, rfr, display_df, w_arr, vix_raw, cfg): """Constructs a dictionary of market indicators (VIX, yield curve, Benchmark trend).""" import pandas as pd rfr_scalar = rfr.iloc[-1] if isinstance(rfr, pd.Series) else rfr macro = {"vix_val": 0.0, "vix_high": False, "tnx_val": rfr_scalar * 100, "curve_inverted": False, "spy_trend": "UNKNOWN"} benchmarks = cfg.get("benchmarks", {}) vol_ticker = benchmarks.get("volatility", "^VIX") eq_ticker = benchmarks.get("equity", "SPY") rfr_ticker = benchmarks.get("risk_free", "^TNX") short_rate_ticker = benchmarks.get("short_term_rate", "^IRX") if vix_raw is not None and not vix_raw.empty: val = float(vix_raw.iloc[-1]) macro["vix_val"] = val macro["vix_high"] = val > 20.0 if eq_ticker in raw: spy_px = raw[eq_ticker] if len(spy_px) > 200: sma200 = spy_px.iloc[-200:].mean() sma50 = spy_px.iloc[-50:].mean() if sma50 > sma200 and spy_px.iloc[-1] > sma200: macro["spy_trend"] = "BULL" elif sma50 < sma200 and spy_px.iloc[-1] < sma200: macro["spy_trend"] = "BEAR" else: macro["spy_trend"] = "CHOP" if rfr_ticker in prices and short_rate_ticker in prices: macro["curve_inverted"] = prices[rfr_ticker] < prices[short_rate_ticker] return macro def behavioral_diagnostics(weights, display_df, cov_mat, risk_input, max_dd): """Flags potential conflicts between portfolio behavior and user risk settings.""" diags = [] w_risky = weights.drop(labels=['CASH'], errors='ignore') w_arr = w_risky.reindex(cov_mat.columns).fillna(0.0).values vol = float(np.sqrt(w_arr @ cov_mat.values @ w_arr)) if max_dd < -0.20 and risk_input >= 7: diags.append(f"Portfolio suffered a {max_dd:.0%} historical drawdown despite a Conservative (Level {risk_input}) setting.") if vol > 0.25 and risk_input >= 6: diags.append(f"High annualized volatility ({vol:.1%}) conflicts with Preservation objectives.") if weights.get("CASH", 0.0) > 0.40 and risk_input <= 4: diags.append("Large cash drag (>40%) is severely hampering your Aggressive growth objectives.") return diags