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Upload 2 files
Browse files- requirements.txt +22 -0
- typhoon_analysis.py +1445 -0
requirements.txt
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
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dash==2.17.1
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plotly==5.22.0
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pandas==2.2.2
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numpy==1.26.4
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scipy==1.13.1
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scikit-learn==1.5.1
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cachetools==5.3.3
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tropycal==1.3
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pyshp==2.3.1
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gitpython==3.1.30
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requests==2.32.3
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matplotlib==3.8.4
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networkx==3.3
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xarray==2024.6.0
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shapely==2.0.4
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pyproj==3.6.1
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dash-core-components==2.0.0
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dash-html-components==2.0.0
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dash-table==5.0.0
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Cartopy==0.23.0
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statsmodels==0.14.1
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schedule==1.2.0
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typhoon_analysis.py
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,1445 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
import dash
|
| 2 |
+
import plotly.graph_objects as go
|
| 3 |
+
import plotly.express as px
|
| 4 |
+
import pickle
|
| 5 |
+
import tropycal.tracks as tracks
|
| 6 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 7 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 8 |
+
import cachetools
|
| 9 |
+
import functools
|
| 10 |
+
import hashlib
|
| 11 |
+
import os
|
| 12 |
+
import argparse
|
| 13 |
+
from dash import dcc, html
|
| 14 |
+
from dash.dependencies import Input, Output, State
|
| 15 |
+
from dash.exceptions import PreventUpdate
|
| 16 |
+
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
|
| 17 |
+
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
| 18 |
+
from datetime import date, datetime
|
| 19 |
+
from scipy import stats
|
| 20 |
+
from scipy.optimize import minimize, curve_fit
|
| 21 |
+
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
|
| 22 |
+
from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
|
| 23 |
+
from scipy.interpolate import interp1d
|
| 24 |
+
from fractions import Fraction
|
| 25 |
+
from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor
|
| 26 |
+
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
|
| 27 |
+
import statsmodels.api as sm
|
| 28 |
+
import schedule
|
| 29 |
+
import time
|
| 30 |
+
import threading
|
| 31 |
+
import requests
|
| 32 |
+
from io import StringIO
|
| 33 |
+
import tempfile
|
| 34 |
+
import csv
|
| 35 |
+
from collections import defaultdict
|
| 36 |
+
import shutil
|
| 37 |
+
import filecmp
|
| 38 |
+
|
| 39 |
+
# Add command-line argument parsing
|
| 40 |
+
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description='Typhoon Analysis Dashboard')
|
| 41 |
+
parser.add_argument('--data_path', type=str, default=os.getcwd(), help='Path to the data directory')
|
| 42 |
+
args = parser.parse_args()
|
| 43 |
+
|
| 44 |
+
# Use the command-line argument for data path
|
| 45 |
+
DATA_PATH = args.data_path
|
| 46 |
+
|
| 47 |
+
ONI_DATA_PATH = os.path.join(DATA_PATH, 'oni_data.csv')
|
| 48 |
+
TYPHOON_DATA_PATH = os.path.join(DATA_PATH, 'processed_typhoon_data.csv')
|
| 49 |
+
LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH = os.path.join(DATA_PATH, 'ibtracs.WP.list.v04r01.csv')
|
| 50 |
+
iBtrace_uri = 'https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/international-best-track-archive-for-climate-stewardship-ibtracs/v04r01/access/csv/ibtracs.WP.list.v04r01.csv'
|
| 51 |
+
|
| 52 |
+
CACHE_FILE = 'ibtracs_cache.pkl'
|
| 53 |
+
CACHE_EXPIRY_DAYS = 1
|
| 54 |
+
last_oni_update = None
|
| 55 |
+
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
def should_update_oni():
|
| 58 |
+
today = datetime.now()
|
| 59 |
+
# Beginning of the month: 1st day
|
| 60 |
+
if today.day == 1:
|
| 61 |
+
return True
|
| 62 |
+
# Middle of the month: 15th day
|
| 63 |
+
if today.day == 15:
|
| 64 |
+
return True
|
| 65 |
+
# End of the month: last day
|
| 66 |
+
if today.day == (today.replace(day=1, month=today.month%12+1) - timedelta(days=1)).day:
|
| 67 |
+
return True
|
| 68 |
+
return False
|
| 69 |
+
|
| 70 |
+
color_map = {
|
| 71 |
+
'C5 Super Typhoon': 'rgb(255, 0, 0)', # Red
|
| 72 |
+
'C4 Very Strong Typhoon': 'rgb(255, 63, 0)', # Red-Orange
|
| 73 |
+
'C3 Strong Typhoon': 'rgb(255, 127, 0)', # Orange
|
| 74 |
+
'C2 Typhoon': 'rgb(255, 191, 0)', # Orange-Yellow
|
| 75 |
+
'C1 Typhoon': 'rgb(255, 255, 0)', # Yellow
|
| 76 |
+
'Tropical Storm': 'rgb(0, 255, 255)', # Cyan
|
| 77 |
+
'Tropical Depression': 'rgb(173, 216, 230)' # Light Blue
|
| 78 |
+
}
|
| 79 |
+
|
| 80 |
+
def convert_typhoondata(input_file, output_file):
|
| 81 |
+
with open(input_file, 'r') as infile:
|
| 82 |
+
# Skip the title and the unit line.
|
| 83 |
+
next(infile)
|
| 84 |
+
next(infile)
|
| 85 |
+
|
| 86 |
+
reader = csv.reader(infile)
|
| 87 |
+
|
| 88 |
+
# Used for storing data for each SID
|
| 89 |
+
sid_data = defaultdict(list)
|
| 90 |
+
|
| 91 |
+
for row in reader:
|
| 92 |
+
if not row: # Skip the blank lines
|
| 93 |
+
continue
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
sid = row[0]
|
| 96 |
+
iso_time = row[6]
|
| 97 |
+
sid_data[sid].append((row, iso_time))
|
| 98 |
+
|
| 99 |
+
with open(output_file, 'w', newline='') as outfile:
|
| 100 |
+
fieldnames = ['SID', 'ISO_TIME', 'LAT', 'LON', 'SEASON', 'NAME', 'WMO_WIND', 'WMO_PRES', 'USA_WIND', 'USA_PRES', 'START_DATE', 'END_DATE']
|
| 101 |
+
writer = csv.DictWriter(outfile, fieldnames=fieldnames)
|
| 102 |
+
|
| 103 |
+
writer.writeheader()
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
for sid, data in sid_data.items():
|
| 106 |
+
start_date = min(data, key=lambda x: x[1])[1]
|
| 107 |
+
end_date = max(data, key=lambda x: x[1])[1]
|
| 108 |
+
|
| 109 |
+
for row, iso_time in data:
|
| 110 |
+
writer.writerow({
|
| 111 |
+
'SID': row[0],
|
| 112 |
+
'ISO_TIME': iso_time,
|
| 113 |
+
'LAT': row[8],
|
| 114 |
+
'LON': row[9],
|
| 115 |
+
'SEASON': row[1],
|
| 116 |
+
'NAME': row[5],
|
| 117 |
+
'WMO_WIND': row[10].strip() or ' ',
|
| 118 |
+
'WMO_PRES': row[11].strip() or ' ',
|
| 119 |
+
'USA_WIND': row[23].strip() or ' ',
|
| 120 |
+
'USA_PRES': row[24].strip() or ' ',
|
| 121 |
+
'START_DATE': start_date,
|
| 122 |
+
'END_DATE': end_date
|
| 123 |
+
})
|
| 124 |
+
|
| 125 |
+
|
| 126 |
+
def download_oni_file(url, filename):
|
| 127 |
+
print(f"Downloading file from {url}...")
|
| 128 |
+
try:
|
| 129 |
+
response = requests.get(url)
|
| 130 |
+
response.raise_for_status() # Raises an exception for non-200 status codes
|
| 131 |
+
with open(filename, 'wb') as f:
|
| 132 |
+
f.write(response.content)
|
| 133 |
+
print(f"File successfully downloaded and saved as {filename}")
|
| 134 |
+
return True
|
| 135 |
+
except requests.RequestException as e:
|
| 136 |
+
print(f"Download failed. Error: {e}")
|
| 137 |
+
return False
|
| 138 |
+
|
| 139 |
+
|
| 140 |
+
def convert_oni_ascii_to_csv(input_file, output_file):
|
| 141 |
+
data = defaultdict(lambda: [''] * 12)
|
| 142 |
+
season_to_month = {
|
| 143 |
+
'DJF': 12, 'JFM': 1, 'FMA': 2, 'MAM': 3, 'AMJ': 4, 'MJJ': 5,
|
| 144 |
+
'JJA': 6, 'JAS': 7, 'ASO': 8, 'SON': 9, 'OND': 10, 'NDJ': 11
|
| 145 |
+
}
|
| 146 |
+
|
| 147 |
+
print(f"Attempting to read file: {input_file}")
|
| 148 |
+
try:
|
| 149 |
+
with open(input_file, 'r') as f:
|
| 150 |
+
lines = f.readlines()
|
| 151 |
+
print(f"Successfully read {len(lines)} lines")
|
| 152 |
+
|
| 153 |
+
if len(lines) <= 1:
|
| 154 |
+
print("Error: File is empty or contains only header")
|
| 155 |
+
return
|
| 156 |
+
|
| 157 |
+
for line in lines[1:]: # Skip header
|
| 158 |
+
parts = line.split()
|
| 159 |
+
if len(parts) >= 4:
|
| 160 |
+
season, year = parts[0], parts[1]
|
| 161 |
+
anom = parts[-1]
|
| 162 |
+
|
| 163 |
+
if season in season_to_month:
|
| 164 |
+
month = season_to_month[season]
|
| 165 |
+
|
| 166 |
+
if season == 'DJF':
|
| 167 |
+
year = str(int(year) - 1)
|
| 168 |
+
|
| 169 |
+
data[year][month-1] = anom
|
| 170 |
+
else:
|
| 171 |
+
print(f"Warning: Unknown season: {season}")
|
| 172 |
+
else:
|
| 173 |
+
print(f"Warning: Skipping invalid line: {line.strip()}")
|
| 174 |
+
|
| 175 |
+
print(f"Processed data for {len(data)} years")
|
| 176 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 177 |
+
print(f"Error reading file: {e}")
|
| 178 |
+
return
|
| 179 |
+
|
| 180 |
+
print(f"Attempting to write file: {output_file}")
|
| 181 |
+
try:
|
| 182 |
+
with open(output_file, 'w', newline='') as f:
|
| 183 |
+
writer = csv.writer(f)
|
| 184 |
+
writer.writerow(['Year', 'Jan', 'Feb', 'Mar', 'Apr', 'May', 'Jun', 'Jul', 'Aug', 'Sep', 'Oct', 'Nov', 'Dec'])
|
| 185 |
+
|
| 186 |
+
for year in sorted(data.keys()):
|
| 187 |
+
row = [year] + data[year]
|
| 188 |
+
writer.writerow(row)
|
| 189 |
+
|
| 190 |
+
print(f"Successfully wrote {len(data)} rows of data")
|
| 191 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 192 |
+
print(f"Error writing file: {e}")
|
| 193 |
+
return
|
| 194 |
+
|
| 195 |
+
print(f"Conversion complete. Data saved to {output_file}")
|
| 196 |
+
|
| 197 |
+
def update_oni_data():
|
| 198 |
+
global last_oni_update
|
| 199 |
+
current_date = date.today()
|
| 200 |
+
|
| 201 |
+
# Check if already updated today
|
| 202 |
+
if last_oni_update == current_date:
|
| 203 |
+
print("ONI data already checked today. Skipping update.")
|
| 204 |
+
return
|
| 205 |
+
|
| 206 |
+
url = "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt"
|
| 207 |
+
temp_file = os.path.join(DATA_PATH, "temp_oni.ascii.txt")
|
| 208 |
+
input_file = os.path.join(DATA_PATH, "oni.ascii.txt")
|
| 209 |
+
output_file = ONI_DATA_PATH
|
| 210 |
+
|
| 211 |
+
if download_oni_file(url, temp_file):
|
| 212 |
+
if not os.path.exists(input_file) or not filecmp.cmp(temp_file, input_file, shallow=False):
|
| 213 |
+
# File doesn't exist or has been updated
|
| 214 |
+
os.replace(temp_file, input_file)
|
| 215 |
+
print("New ONI data detected. Converting to CSV.")
|
| 216 |
+
convert_oni_ascii_to_csv(input_file, output_file)
|
| 217 |
+
print("ONI data updated successfully.")
|
| 218 |
+
else:
|
| 219 |
+
print("ONI data is up to date. No conversion needed.")
|
| 220 |
+
os.remove(temp_file) # Remove temporary file
|
| 221 |
+
|
| 222 |
+
last_oni_update = current_date
|
| 223 |
+
else:
|
| 224 |
+
print("Failed to download ONI data.")
|
| 225 |
+
if os.path.exists(temp_file):
|
| 226 |
+
os.remove(temp_file) # Ensure cleanup of temporary file
|
| 227 |
+
|
| 228 |
+
def load_ibtracs_data():
|
| 229 |
+
if os.path.exists(CACHE_FILE):
|
| 230 |
+
cache_time = datetime.fromtimestamp(os.path.getmtime(CACHE_FILE))
|
| 231 |
+
if datetime.now() - cache_time < timedelta(days=CACHE_EXPIRY_DAYS):
|
| 232 |
+
print("Loading data from cache...")
|
| 233 |
+
with open(CACHE_FILE, 'rb') as f:
|
| 234 |
+
return pickle.load(f)
|
| 235 |
+
|
| 236 |
+
if os.path.exists(LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH):
|
| 237 |
+
print("Using local IBTrACS file...")
|
| 238 |
+
ibtracs = tracks.TrackDataset(basin='west_pacific', source='ibtracs', ibtracs_url=LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH)
|
| 239 |
+
else:
|
| 240 |
+
print("Local IBTrACS file not found. Fetching data from remote server...")
|
| 241 |
+
try:
|
| 242 |
+
response = requests.get(iBtrace_uri)
|
| 243 |
+
response.raise_for_status()
|
| 244 |
+
|
| 245 |
+
with tempfile.NamedTemporaryFile(mode='w', delete=False, suffix='.csv') as temp_file:
|
| 246 |
+
temp_file.write(response.text)
|
| 247 |
+
temp_file_path = temp_file.name
|
| 248 |
+
|
| 249 |
+
# Save the downloaded data as the local file
|
| 250 |
+
shutil.move(temp_file_path, LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH)
|
| 251 |
+
print(f"Downloaded data saved to {LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH}")
|
| 252 |
+
|
| 253 |
+
ibtracs = tracks.TrackDataset(basin='west_pacific', source='ibtracs', ibtracs_url=LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH)
|
| 254 |
+
except requests.RequestException as e:
|
| 255 |
+
print(f"Error downloading data: {e}")
|
| 256 |
+
print("No local file available and download failed. Unable to load IBTrACS data.")
|
| 257 |
+
return None
|
| 258 |
+
|
| 259 |
+
with open(CACHE_FILE, 'wb') as f:
|
| 260 |
+
pickle.dump(ibtracs, f)
|
| 261 |
+
|
| 262 |
+
return ibtracs
|
| 263 |
+
|
| 264 |
+
def update_ibtracs_data():
|
| 265 |
+
global ibtracs
|
| 266 |
+
print("Checking for IBTrACS data updates...")
|
| 267 |
+
|
| 268 |
+
try:
|
| 269 |
+
# Get the last-modified time of the remote file
|
| 270 |
+
response = requests.head(iBtrace_uri)
|
| 271 |
+
remote_last_modified = datetime.strptime(response.headers['Last-Modified'], '%a, %d %b %Y %H:%M:%S GMT')
|
| 272 |
+
|
| 273 |
+
# Get the last-modified time of the local file
|
| 274 |
+
if os.path.exists(LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH):
|
| 275 |
+
local_last_modified = datetime.fromtimestamp(os.path.getmtime(LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH))
|
| 276 |
+
else:
|
| 277 |
+
local_last_modified = datetime.min
|
| 278 |
+
|
| 279 |
+
# Compare the modification times
|
| 280 |
+
if remote_last_modified <= local_last_modified:
|
| 281 |
+
print("Local IBTrACS data is up to date. No update needed.")
|
| 282 |
+
if os.path.exists(CACHE_FILE):
|
| 283 |
+
# Update the cache file's timestamp to extend its validity
|
| 284 |
+
os.utime(CACHE_FILE, None)
|
| 285 |
+
print("Cache file timestamp updated.")
|
| 286 |
+
return
|
| 287 |
+
|
| 288 |
+
print("Remote data is newer. Updating IBTrACS data...")
|
| 289 |
+
|
| 290 |
+
# Download the new data
|
| 291 |
+
response = requests.get(iBtrace_uri)
|
| 292 |
+
response.raise_for_status()
|
| 293 |
+
|
| 294 |
+
with tempfile.NamedTemporaryFile(mode='w', delete=False, suffix='.csv') as temp_file:
|
| 295 |
+
temp_file.write(response.text)
|
| 296 |
+
temp_file_path = temp_file.name
|
| 297 |
+
|
| 298 |
+
# Save the downloaded data as the local file
|
| 299 |
+
shutil.move(temp_file_path, LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH)
|
| 300 |
+
print(f"Downloaded data saved to {LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH}")
|
| 301 |
+
|
| 302 |
+
# Update the last modified time of the local file to match the remote file
|
| 303 |
+
os.utime(LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH, (remote_last_modified.timestamp(), remote_last_modified.timestamp()))
|
| 304 |
+
|
| 305 |
+
ibtracs = tracks.TrackDataset(basin='west_pacific', source='ibtracs', ibtracs_url=LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH)
|
| 306 |
+
|
| 307 |
+
with open(CACHE_FILE, 'wb') as f:
|
| 308 |
+
pickle.dump(ibtracs, f)
|
| 309 |
+
print("IBTrACS data updated and cache refreshed.")
|
| 310 |
+
|
| 311 |
+
except requests.RequestException as e:
|
| 312 |
+
print(f"Error checking or downloading data: {e}")
|
| 313 |
+
if os.path.exists(LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH):
|
| 314 |
+
print("Using existing local file.")
|
| 315 |
+
ibtracs = tracks.TrackDataset(basin='west_pacific', source='ibtracs', ibtracs_url=LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH)
|
| 316 |
+
if os.path.exists(CACHE_FILE):
|
| 317 |
+
# Update the cache file's timestamp even when using existing local file
|
| 318 |
+
os.utime(CACHE_FILE, None)
|
| 319 |
+
print("Cache file timestamp updated.")
|
| 320 |
+
else:
|
| 321 |
+
print("No local file available. Update failed.")
|
| 322 |
+
|
| 323 |
+
def run_schedule():
|
| 324 |
+
while True:
|
| 325 |
+
schedule.run_pending()
|
| 326 |
+
time.sleep(1)
|
| 327 |
+
|
| 328 |
+
def analyze_typhoon_generation(merged_data, start_date, end_date):
|
| 329 |
+
filtered_data = merged_data[
|
| 330 |
+
(merged_data['ISO_TIME'] >= start_date) &
|
| 331 |
+
(merged_data['ISO_TIME'] <= end_date)
|
| 332 |
+
]
|
| 333 |
+
|
| 334 |
+
filtered_data['ENSO_Phase'] = filtered_data['ONI'].apply(classify_enso_phases)
|
| 335 |
+
|
| 336 |
+
typhoon_counts = filtered_data['ENSO_Phase'].value_counts().to_dict()
|
| 337 |
+
|
| 338 |
+
month_counts = filtered_data.groupby(['ENSO_Phase', filtered_data['ISO_TIME'].dt.month]).size().unstack(fill_value=0)
|
| 339 |
+
concentrated_months = month_counts.idxmax(axis=1).to_dict()
|
| 340 |
+
|
| 341 |
+
return typhoon_counts, concentrated_months
|
| 342 |
+
|
| 343 |
+
def cache_key_generator(*args, **kwargs):
|
| 344 |
+
key = hashlib.md5()
|
| 345 |
+
for arg in args:
|
| 346 |
+
key.update(str(arg).encode())
|
| 347 |
+
for k, v in sorted(kwargs.items()):
|
| 348 |
+
key.update(str(k).encode())
|
| 349 |
+
key.update(str(v).encode())
|
| 350 |
+
return key.hexdigest()
|
| 351 |
+
|
| 352 |
+
def categorize_typhoon(wind_speed):
|
| 353 |
+
wind_speed_kt = wind_speed / 2 # Convert kt to m/s
|
| 354 |
+
|
| 355 |
+
# Add category classification
|
| 356 |
+
if wind_speed_kt >= 137/2.35:
|
| 357 |
+
return 'C5 Super Typhoon'
|
| 358 |
+
elif wind_speed_kt >= 113/2.35:
|
| 359 |
+
return 'C4 Very Strong Typhoon'
|
| 360 |
+
elif wind_speed_kt >= 96/2.35:
|
| 361 |
+
return 'C3 Strong Typhoon'
|
| 362 |
+
elif wind_speed_kt >= 83/2.35:
|
| 363 |
+
return 'C2 Typhoon'
|
| 364 |
+
elif wind_speed_kt >= 64/2.35:
|
| 365 |
+
return 'C1 Typhoon'
|
| 366 |
+
elif wind_speed_kt >= 34/2.35:
|
| 367 |
+
return 'Tropical Storm'
|
| 368 |
+
else:
|
| 369 |
+
return 'Tropical Depression'
|
| 370 |
+
|
| 371 |
+
@functools.lru_cache(maxsize=None)
|
| 372 |
+
def process_oni_data_cached(oni_data_hash):
|
| 373 |
+
return process_oni_data(oni_data)
|
| 374 |
+
|
| 375 |
+
def process_oni_data(oni_data):
|
| 376 |
+
oni_long = oni_data.melt(id_vars=['Year'], var_name='Month', value_name='ONI')
|
| 377 |
+
oni_long['Month'] = oni_long['Month'].map({
|
| 378 |
+
'Jan': '01', 'Feb': '02', 'Mar': '03', 'Apr': '04', 'May': '05', 'Jun': '06',
|
| 379 |
+
'Jul': '07', 'Aug': '08', 'Sep': '09', 'Oct': '10', 'Nov': '11', 'Dec': '12'
|
| 380 |
+
})
|
| 381 |
+
oni_long['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(oni_long['Year'].astype(str) + '-' + oni_long['Month'] + '-01')
|
| 382 |
+
oni_long['ONI'] = pd.to_numeric(oni_long['ONI'], errors='coerce')
|
| 383 |
+
return oni_long
|
| 384 |
+
|
| 385 |
+
def process_oni_data_with_cache(oni_data):
|
| 386 |
+
oni_data_hash = cache_key_generator(oni_data.to_json())
|
| 387 |
+
return process_oni_data_cached(oni_data_hash)
|
| 388 |
+
|
| 389 |
+
@functools.lru_cache(maxsize=None)
|
| 390 |
+
def process_typhoon_data_cached(typhoon_data_hash):
|
| 391 |
+
return process_typhoon_data(typhoon_data)
|
| 392 |
+
|
| 393 |
+
def process_typhoon_data(typhoon_data):
|
| 394 |
+
typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'] = pd.to_datetime(typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'], errors='coerce')
|
| 395 |
+
typhoon_data['USA_WIND'] = pd.to_numeric(typhoon_data['USA_WIND'], errors='coerce')
|
| 396 |
+
typhoon_data['USA_PRES'] = pd.to_numeric(typhoon_data['USA_PRES'], errors='coerce')
|
| 397 |
+
typhoon_data['LON'] = pd.to_numeric(typhoon_data['LON'], errors='coerce')
|
| 398 |
+
|
| 399 |
+
typhoon_max = typhoon_data.groupby('SID').agg({
|
| 400 |
+
'USA_WIND': 'max',
|
| 401 |
+
'USA_PRES': 'min',
|
| 402 |
+
'ISO_TIME': 'first',
|
| 403 |
+
'SEASON': 'first',
|
| 404 |
+
'NAME': 'first',
|
| 405 |
+
'LAT': 'first',
|
| 406 |
+
'LON': 'first'
|
| 407 |
+
}).reset_index()
|
| 408 |
+
|
| 409 |
+
typhoon_max['Month'] = typhoon_max['ISO_TIME'].dt.strftime('%m')
|
| 410 |
+
typhoon_max['Year'] = typhoon_max['ISO_TIME'].dt.year
|
| 411 |
+
typhoon_max['Category'] = typhoon_max['USA_WIND'].apply(categorize_typhoon)
|
| 412 |
+
return typhoon_max
|
| 413 |
+
|
| 414 |
+
def process_typhoon_data_with_cache(typhoon_data):
|
| 415 |
+
typhoon_data_hash = cache_key_generator(typhoon_data.to_json())
|
| 416 |
+
return process_typhoon_data_cached(typhoon_data_hash)
|
| 417 |
+
|
| 418 |
+
def merge_data(oni_long, typhoon_max):
|
| 419 |
+
return pd.merge(typhoon_max, oni_long, on=['Year', 'Month'])
|
| 420 |
+
|
| 421 |
+
def calculate_logistic_regression(merged_data):
|
| 422 |
+
data = merged_data.dropna(subset=['USA_WIND', 'ONI'])
|
| 423 |
+
|
| 424 |
+
# Create binary outcome for severe typhoons
|
| 425 |
+
data['severe_typhoon'] = (data['USA_WIND'] >= 51).astype(int)
|
| 426 |
+
|
| 427 |
+
# Create binary predictor for El Niño
|
| 428 |
+
data['el_nino'] = (data['ONI'] >= 0.5).astype(int)
|
| 429 |
+
|
| 430 |
+
X = data['el_nino']
|
| 431 |
+
X = sm.add_constant(X) # Add constant term
|
| 432 |
+
y = data['severe_typhoon']
|
| 433 |
+
|
| 434 |
+
model = sm.Logit(y, X).fit()
|
| 435 |
+
|
| 436 |
+
beta_1 = model.params['el_nino']
|
| 437 |
+
exp_beta_1 = np.exp(beta_1)
|
| 438 |
+
p_value = model.pvalues['el_nino']
|
| 439 |
+
|
| 440 |
+
return beta_1, exp_beta_1, p_value
|
| 441 |
+
|
| 442 |
+
@cachetools.cached(cache={})
|
| 443 |
+
def fetch_oni_data_from_csv(file_path):
|
| 444 |
+
df = pd.read_csv(file_path, sep=',', header=0, na_values='-99.90')
|
| 445 |
+
df.columns = ['Year', 'Jan', 'Feb', 'Mar', 'Apr', 'May', 'Jun', 'Jul', 'Aug', 'Sep', 'Oct', 'Nov', 'Dec']
|
| 446 |
+
df = df.melt(id_vars=['Year'], var_name='Month', value_name='ONI')
|
| 447 |
+
df['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['Year'].astype(str) + df['Month'], format='%Y%b')
|
| 448 |
+
df = df.set_index('Date')
|
| 449 |
+
return df
|
| 450 |
+
|
| 451 |
+
def classify_enso_phases(oni_value):
|
| 452 |
+
if isinstance(oni_value, pd.Series):
|
| 453 |
+
oni_value = oni_value.iloc[0]
|
| 454 |
+
if oni_value >= 0.5:
|
| 455 |
+
return 'El Nino'
|
| 456 |
+
elif oni_value <= -0.5:
|
| 457 |
+
return 'La Nina'
|
| 458 |
+
else:
|
| 459 |
+
return 'Neutral'
|
| 460 |
+
|
| 461 |
+
def load_data(oni_data_path, typhoon_data_path):
|
| 462 |
+
oni_data = pd.read_csv(oni_data_path)
|
| 463 |
+
typhoon_data = pd.read_csv(typhoon_data_path, low_memory=False)
|
| 464 |
+
|
| 465 |
+
typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'] = pd.to_datetime(typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'], errors='coerce')
|
| 466 |
+
|
| 467 |
+
typhoon_data = typhoon_data.dropna(subset=['ISO_TIME'])
|
| 468 |
+
|
| 469 |
+
print(f"Typhoon data shape after cleaning: {typhoon_data.shape}")
|
| 470 |
+
print(f"Year range: {typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'].dt.year.min()} - {typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'].dt.year.max()}")
|
| 471 |
+
|
| 472 |
+
return oni_data, typhoon_data
|
| 473 |
+
|
| 474 |
+
def preprocess_data(oni_data, typhoon_data):
|
| 475 |
+
typhoon_data['USA_WIND'] = pd.to_numeric(typhoon_data['USA_WIND'], errors='coerce')
|
| 476 |
+
typhoon_data['WMO_PRES'] = pd.to_numeric(typhoon_data['WMO_PRES'], errors='coerce')
|
| 477 |
+
typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'] = pd.to_datetime(typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'], errors='coerce')
|
| 478 |
+
typhoon_data['Year'] = typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'].dt.year
|
| 479 |
+
typhoon_data['Month'] = typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'].dt.month
|
| 480 |
+
|
| 481 |
+
monthly_max_wind_speed = typhoon_data.groupby(['Year', 'Month'])['USA_WIND'].max().reset_index()
|
| 482 |
+
|
| 483 |
+
oni_data_long = pd.melt(oni_data, id_vars=['Year'], var_name='Month', value_name='ONI')
|
| 484 |
+
oni_data_long['Month'] = oni_data_long['Month'].apply(lambda x: pd.to_datetime(x, format='%b').month)
|
| 485 |
+
|
| 486 |
+
merged_data = pd.merge(monthly_max_wind_speed, oni_data_long, on=['Year', 'Month'])
|
| 487 |
+
|
| 488 |
+
return merged_data
|
| 489 |
+
|
| 490 |
+
def calculate_max_wind_min_pressure(typhoon_data):
|
| 491 |
+
max_wind_speed = typhoon_data['USA_WIND'].max()
|
| 492 |
+
min_pressure = typhoon_data['WMO_PRES'].min()
|
| 493 |
+
return max_wind_speed, min_pressure
|
| 494 |
+
|
| 495 |
+
@functools.lru_cache(maxsize=None)
|
| 496 |
+
def get_storm_data(storm_id):
|
| 497 |
+
return ibtracs.get_storm(storm_id)
|
| 498 |
+
|
| 499 |
+
def filter_west_pacific_coordinates(lons, lats):
|
| 500 |
+
mask = (100 <= lons) & (lons <= 180) & (0 <= lats) & (lats <= 40)
|
| 501 |
+
return lons[mask], lats[mask]
|
| 502 |
+
|
| 503 |
+
def polynomial_exp(x, a, b, c, d):
|
| 504 |
+
return a * x**2 + b * x + c + d * np.exp(x)
|
| 505 |
+
|
| 506 |
+
def exponential(x, a, b, c):
|
| 507 |
+
return a * np.exp(b * x) + c
|
| 508 |
+
|
| 509 |
+
def generate_cluster_equations(cluster_center):
|
| 510 |
+
X = cluster_center[:, 0] # Longitudes
|
| 511 |
+
y = cluster_center[:, 1] # Latitudes
|
| 512 |
+
|
| 513 |
+
x_min = X.min()
|
| 514 |
+
x_max = X.max()
|
| 515 |
+
|
| 516 |
+
equations = []
|
| 517 |
+
|
| 518 |
+
# Fourier Series (up to 4th order)
|
| 519 |
+
def fourier_series(x, a0, a1, b1, a2, b2, a3, b3, a4, b4):
|
| 520 |
+
return (a0 + a1*np.cos(x) + b1*np.sin(x) +
|
| 521 |
+
a2*np.cos(2*x) + b2*np.sin(2*x) +
|
| 522 |
+
a3*np.cos(3*x) + b3*np.sin(3*x) +
|
| 523 |
+
a4*np.cos(4*x) + b4*np.sin(4*x))
|
| 524 |
+
|
| 525 |
+
# Normalize X to the range [0, 2π]
|
| 526 |
+
X_normalized = 2 * np.pi * (X - x_min) / (x_max - x_min)
|
| 527 |
+
|
| 528 |
+
params, _ = curve_fit(fourier_series, X_normalized, y)
|
| 529 |
+
a0, a1, b1, a2, b2, a3, b3, a4, b4 = params
|
| 530 |
+
|
| 531 |
+
# Create the equation string
|
| 532 |
+
fourier_eq = (f"y = {a0:.4f} + {a1:.4f}*cos(x) + {b1:.4f}*sin(x) + "
|
| 533 |
+
f"{a2:.4f}*cos(2x) + {b2:.4f}*sin(2x) + "
|
| 534 |
+
f"{a3:.4f}*cos(3x) + {b3:.4f}*sin(3x) + "
|
| 535 |
+
f"{a4:.4f}*cos(4x) + {b4:.4f}*sin(4x)")
|
| 536 |
+
|
| 537 |
+
equations.append(("Fourier Series", fourier_eq))
|
| 538 |
+
equations.append(("X Range", f"x goes from 0 to {2*np.pi:.4f}"))
|
| 539 |
+
equations.append(("Longitude Range", f"Longitude goes from {x_min:.4f}°E to {x_max:.4f}°E"))
|
| 540 |
+
|
| 541 |
+
return equations, (x_min, x_max)
|
| 542 |
+
|
| 543 |
+
#oni_df = fetch_oni_data_from_csv(ONI_DATA_PATH)
|
| 544 |
+
#ibtracs = load_ibtracs_data()
|
| 545 |
+
#oni_data, typhoon_data = load_data(ONI_DATA_PATH, TYPHOON_DATA_PATH)
|
| 546 |
+
#oni_long = process_oni_data_with_cache(oni_data)
|
| 547 |
+
#typhoon_max = process_typhoon_data_with_cache(typhoon_data)
|
| 548 |
+
#merged_data = merge_data(oni_long, typhoon_max)
|
| 549 |
+
#data = preprocess_data(oni_data, typhoon_data)
|
| 550 |
+
#max_wind_speed, min_pressure = calculate_max_wind_min_pressure(typhoon_data)
|
| 551 |
+
#
|
| 552 |
+
## Schedule the update to run daily at 1:00 AM
|
| 553 |
+
#schedule.every().day.at("01:00").do(update_ibtracs_data)
|
| 554 |
+
#
|
| 555 |
+
## Run the scheduler in a separate thread
|
| 556 |
+
#scheduler_thread = threading.Thread(target=run_schedule)
|
| 557 |
+
#scheduler_thread.start()
|
| 558 |
+
|
| 559 |
+
|
| 560 |
+
app = dash.Dash(__name__)
|
| 561 |
+
|
| 562 |
+
# First, add the classification standards
|
| 563 |
+
atlantic_standard = {
|
| 564 |
+
'C5 Super Typhoon': {'wind_speed': 137, 'color': 'rgb(255, 0, 0)'},
|
| 565 |
+
'C4 Very Strong Typhoon': {'wind_speed': 113, 'color': 'rgb(255, 63, 0)'},
|
| 566 |
+
'C3 Strong Typhoon': {'wind_speed': 96, 'color': 'rgb(255, 127, 0)'},
|
| 567 |
+
'C2 Typhoon': {'wind_speed': 83, 'color': 'rgb(255, 191, 0)'},
|
| 568 |
+
'C1 Typhoon': {'wind_speed': 64, 'color': 'rgb(255, 255, 0)'},
|
| 569 |
+
'Tropical Storm': {'wind_speed': 34, 'color': 'rgb(0, 255, 255)'},
|
| 570 |
+
'Tropical Depression': {'wind_speed': 0, 'color': 'rgb(173, 216, 230)'}
|
| 571 |
+
}
|
| 572 |
+
|
| 573 |
+
taiwan_standard = {
|
| 574 |
+
'Strong Typhoon': {'wind_speed': 51.0, 'color': 'rgb(255, 0, 0)'}, # >= 51.0 m/s
|
| 575 |
+
'Medium Typhoon': {'wind_speed': 33.7, 'color': 'rgb(255, 127, 0)'}, # 33.7-50.9 m/s
|
| 576 |
+
'Mild Typhoon': {'wind_speed': 17.2, 'color': 'rgb(255, 255, 0)'}, # 17.2-33.6 m/s
|
| 577 |
+
'Tropical Depression': {'wind_speed': 0, 'color': 'rgb(173, 216, 230)'} # < 17.2 m/s
|
| 578 |
+
}
|
| 579 |
+
|
| 580 |
+
app.layout = html.Div([
|
| 581 |
+
html.H1("Typhoon Analysis Dashboard"),
|
| 582 |
+
|
| 583 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 584 |
+
dcc.Input(id='start-year', type='number', placeholder='Start Year', value=2000, min=1900, max=2024, step=1),
|
| 585 |
+
dcc.Input(id='start-month', type='number', placeholder='Start Month', value=1, min=1, max=12, step=1),
|
| 586 |
+
dcc.Input(id='end-year', type='number', placeholder='End Year', value=2024, min=1900, max=2024, step=1),
|
| 587 |
+
dcc.Input(id='end-month', type='number', placeholder='End Month', value=6, min=1, max=12, step=1),
|
| 588 |
+
dcc.Dropdown(
|
| 589 |
+
id='enso-dropdown',
|
| 590 |
+
options=[
|
| 591 |
+
{'label': 'All Years', 'value': 'all'},
|
| 592 |
+
{'label': 'El Niño Years', 'value': 'el_nino'},
|
| 593 |
+
{'label': 'La Niña Years', 'value': 'la_nina'},
|
| 594 |
+
{'label': 'Neutral Years', 'value': 'neutral'}
|
| 595 |
+
],
|
| 596 |
+
value='all'
|
| 597 |
+
),
|
| 598 |
+
html.Button('Analyze', id='analyze-button', n_clicks=0),
|
| 599 |
+
]),
|
| 600 |
+
|
| 601 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 602 |
+
dcc.Input(id='typhoon-search', type='text', placeholder='Search Typhoon Name'),
|
| 603 |
+
html.Button('Find Typhoon', id='find-typhoon-button', n_clicks=0),
|
| 604 |
+
]),
|
| 605 |
+
|
| 606 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 607 |
+
html.Div(id='correlation-coefficient'),
|
| 608 |
+
html.Div(id='max-wind-speed'),
|
| 609 |
+
html.Div(id='min-pressure'),
|
| 610 |
+
]),
|
| 611 |
+
|
| 612 |
+
dcc.Graph(id='typhoon-tracks-graph'),
|
| 613 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 614 |
+
html.P("Number of Clusters"),
|
| 615 |
+
dcc.Input(id='n-clusters', type='number', placeholder='Number of Clusters', value=5, min=1, max=20, step=1),
|
| 616 |
+
html.Button('Show Clusters', id='show-clusters-button', n_clicks=0),
|
| 617 |
+
html.Button('Show Typhoon Routes', id='show-routes-button', n_clicks=0),
|
| 618 |
+
]),
|
| 619 |
+
|
| 620 |
+
dcc.Graph(id='typhoon-routes-graph'),
|
| 621 |
+
|
| 622 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 623 |
+
html.Button('Fourier Series', id='fourier-series-button', n_clicks=0),
|
| 624 |
+
]),
|
| 625 |
+
html.Div(id='cluster-equation-results'),
|
| 626 |
+
|
| 627 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 628 |
+
html.Button('Wind Speed Logistic Regression', id='wind-regression-button', n_clicks=0),
|
| 629 |
+
html.Button('Pressure Logistic Regression', id='pressure-regression-button', n_clicks=0),
|
| 630 |
+
html.Button('Longitude Logistic Regression', id='longitude-regression-button', n_clicks=0),
|
| 631 |
+
]),
|
| 632 |
+
html.Div(id='logistic-regression-results'),
|
| 633 |
+
|
| 634 |
+
html.H2("Typhoon Path Analysis"),
|
| 635 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 636 |
+
dcc.Dropdown(
|
| 637 |
+
id='year-dropdown',
|
| 638 |
+
options=[{'label': str(year), 'value': year} for year in range(1950, 2025)],
|
| 639 |
+
value=2024,
|
| 640 |
+
style={'width': '200px'}
|
| 641 |
+
),
|
| 642 |
+
dcc.Dropdown(
|
| 643 |
+
id='typhoon-dropdown',
|
| 644 |
+
style={'width': '300px'}
|
| 645 |
+
),
|
| 646 |
+
dcc.Dropdown(
|
| 647 |
+
id='classification-standard',
|
| 648 |
+
options=[
|
| 649 |
+
{'label': 'Atlantic Standard', 'value': 'atlantic'},
|
| 650 |
+
{'label': 'Taiwan Standard', 'value': 'taiwan'}
|
| 651 |
+
],
|
| 652 |
+
value='atlantic',
|
| 653 |
+
style={'width': '200px'}
|
| 654 |
+
)
|
| 655 |
+
], style={'display': 'flex', 'gap': '10px'}),
|
| 656 |
+
|
| 657 |
+
dcc.Graph(id='typhoon-path-animation'),
|
| 658 |
+
dcc.Graph(id='all-years-regression-graph'),
|
| 659 |
+
dcc.Graph(id='wind-oni-scatter-plot'),
|
| 660 |
+
dcc.Graph(id='pressure-oni-scatter'),
|
| 661 |
+
|
| 662 |
+
html.Div(id='regression-graphs'),
|
| 663 |
+
html.Div(id='slopes'),
|
| 664 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 665 |
+
html.H3("Correlation Analysis"),
|
| 666 |
+
html.Div(id='wind-oni-correlation'),
|
| 667 |
+
html.Div(id='pressure-oni-correlation'),
|
| 668 |
+
]),
|
| 669 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 670 |
+
html.H3("Typhoon Generation Analysis"),
|
| 671 |
+
html.Div(id='typhoon-count-analysis'),
|
| 672 |
+
html.Div(id='concentrated-months-analysis'),
|
| 673 |
+
]),
|
| 674 |
+
html.Div(id='cluster-info'),
|
| 675 |
+
|
| 676 |
+
html.Div([
|
| 677 |
+
dcc.Dropdown(
|
| 678 |
+
id='classification-standard',
|
| 679 |
+
options=[
|
| 680 |
+
{'label': 'Atlantic Standard', 'value': 'atlantic'},
|
| 681 |
+
{'label': 'Taiwan Standard', 'value': 'taiwan'}
|
| 682 |
+
],
|
| 683 |
+
value='atlantic',
|
| 684 |
+
style={'width': '200px'}
|
| 685 |
+
)
|
| 686 |
+
], style={'margin': '10px'}),
|
| 687 |
+
|
| 688 |
+
], style={'font-family': 'Arial, sans-serif'})
|
| 689 |
+
|
| 690 |
+
@app.callback(
|
| 691 |
+
Output('year-dropdown', 'options'),
|
| 692 |
+
Input('typhoon-tracks-graph', 'figure')
|
| 693 |
+
)
|
| 694 |
+
def initialize_year_dropdown(_):
|
| 695 |
+
try:
|
| 696 |
+
years = typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'].dt.year.unique()
|
| 697 |
+
years = years[~np.isnan(years)]
|
| 698 |
+
years = sorted(years)
|
| 699 |
+
|
| 700 |
+
options = [{'label': str(int(year)), 'value': int(year)} for year in years]
|
| 701 |
+
print(f"Generated options: {options[:5]}...")
|
| 702 |
+
return options
|
| 703 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 704 |
+
print(f"Error in initialize_year_dropdown: {str(e)}")
|
| 705 |
+
return [{'label': 'Error', 'value': 'error'}]
|
| 706 |
+
|
| 707 |
+
@app.callback(
|
| 708 |
+
[Output('typhoon-dropdown', 'options'),
|
| 709 |
+
Output('typhoon-dropdown', 'value')],
|
| 710 |
+
[Input('year-dropdown', 'value')]
|
| 711 |
+
)
|
| 712 |
+
def update_typhoon_dropdown(selected_year):
|
| 713 |
+
if not selected_year:
|
| 714 |
+
raise PreventUpdate
|
| 715 |
+
|
| 716 |
+
selected_year = int(selected_year)
|
| 717 |
+
|
| 718 |
+
season = ibtracs.get_season(selected_year)
|
| 719 |
+
storm_summary = season.summary()
|
| 720 |
+
|
| 721 |
+
typhoon_options = []
|
| 722 |
+
for i in range(storm_summary['season_storms']):
|
| 723 |
+
storm_id = storm_summary['id'][i]
|
| 724 |
+
storm_name = storm_summary['name'][i]
|
| 725 |
+
typhoon_options.append({'label': f"{storm_name} ({storm_id})", 'value': storm_id})
|
| 726 |
+
|
| 727 |
+
selected_typhoon = typhoon_options[0]['value'] if typhoon_options else None
|
| 728 |
+
return typhoon_options, selected_typhoon
|
| 729 |
+
|
| 730 |
+
@app.callback(
|
| 731 |
+
Output('typhoon-path-animation', 'figure'),
|
| 732 |
+
[Input('year-dropdown', 'value'),
|
| 733 |
+
Input('typhoon-dropdown', 'value'),
|
| 734 |
+
Input('classification-standard', 'value')]
|
| 735 |
+
)
|
| 736 |
+
def update_typhoon_path(selected_year, selected_sid, standard):
|
| 737 |
+
if not selected_year or not selected_sid:
|
| 738 |
+
raise PreventUpdate
|
| 739 |
+
|
| 740 |
+
storm = ibtracs.get_storm(selected_sid)
|
| 741 |
+
return create_typhoon_path_figure(storm, selected_year, standard)
|
| 742 |
+
|
| 743 |
+
def create_typhoon_path_figure(storm, selected_year, standard='atlantic'):
|
| 744 |
+
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 745 |
+
|
| 746 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 747 |
+
go.Scattergeo(
|
| 748 |
+
lon=storm.lon,
|
| 749 |
+
lat=storm.lat,
|
| 750 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 751 |
+
line=dict(width=2, color='gray'),
|
| 752 |
+
name='Path',
|
| 753 |
+
showlegend=False,
|
| 754 |
+
)
|
| 755 |
+
)
|
| 756 |
+
|
| 757 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 758 |
+
go.Scattergeo(
|
| 759 |
+
lon=[storm.lon[0]],
|
| 760 |
+
lat=[storm.lat[0]],
|
| 761 |
+
mode='markers',
|
| 762 |
+
marker=dict(size=10, color='green', symbol='star'),
|
| 763 |
+
name='Starting Point',
|
| 764 |
+
text=storm.time[0].strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M'),
|
| 765 |
+
hoverinfo='text+name',
|
| 766 |
+
)
|
| 767 |
+
)
|
| 768 |
+
|
| 769 |
+
frames = []
|
| 770 |
+
for i in range(len(storm.time)):
|
| 771 |
+
category, color = categorize_typhoon_by_standard(storm.vmax[i], standard)
|
| 772 |
+
|
| 773 |
+
r34_ne = storm.dict['USA_R34_NE'][i] if 'USA_R34_NE' in storm.dict else None
|
| 774 |
+
r34_se = storm.dict['USA_R34_SE'][i] if 'USA_R34_SE' in storm.dict else None
|
| 775 |
+
r34_sw = storm.dict['USA_R34_SW'][i] if 'USA_R34_SW' in storm.dict else None
|
| 776 |
+
r34_nw = storm.dict['USA_R34_NW'][i] if 'USA_R34_NW' in storm.dict else None
|
| 777 |
+
rmw = storm.dict['USA_RMW'][i] if 'USA_RMW' in storm.dict else None
|
| 778 |
+
eye_diameter = storm.dict['USA_EYE'][i] if 'USA_EYE' in storm.dict else None
|
| 779 |
+
|
| 780 |
+
radius_info = f"R34: NE={r34_ne}, SE={r34_se}, SW={r34_sw}, NW={r34_nw}<br>"
|
| 781 |
+
radius_info += f"RMW: {rmw}<br>"
|
| 782 |
+
radius_info += f"Eye Diameter: {eye_diameter}"
|
| 783 |
+
|
| 784 |
+
frame_data = [
|
| 785 |
+
go.Scattergeo(
|
| 786 |
+
lon=storm.lon[:i+1],
|
| 787 |
+
lat=storm.lat[:i+1],
|
| 788 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 789 |
+
line=dict(width=2, color='blue'),
|
| 790 |
+
name='Path Traveled',
|
| 791 |
+
showlegend=False,
|
| 792 |
+
),
|
| 793 |
+
go.Scattergeo(
|
| 794 |
+
lon=[storm.lon[i]],
|
| 795 |
+
lat=[storm.lat[i]],
|
| 796 |
+
mode='markers+text',
|
| 797 |
+
marker=dict(size=10, color=color, symbol='star'),
|
| 798 |
+
text=category,
|
| 799 |
+
textposition="top center",
|
| 800 |
+
textfont=dict(size=12, color=color),
|
| 801 |
+
name='Current Location',
|
| 802 |
+
hovertext=f"{storm.time[i].strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M')}<br>"
|
| 803 |
+
f"Category: {category}<br>"
|
| 804 |
+
f"Wind Speed: {storm.vmax[i]:.1f} m/s<br>"
|
| 805 |
+
f"{radius_info}",
|
| 806 |
+
hoverinfo='text',
|
| 807 |
+
),
|
| 808 |
+
]
|
| 809 |
+
frames.append(go.Frame(data=frame_data, name=f"frame{i}"))
|
| 810 |
+
|
| 811 |
+
fig.frames = frames
|
| 812 |
+
|
| 813 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 814 |
+
title=f"{selected_year} Year {storm.name} Typhoon Path",
|
| 815 |
+
showlegend=False,
|
| 816 |
+
geo=dict(
|
| 817 |
+
projection_type='natural earth',
|
| 818 |
+
showland=True,
|
| 819 |
+
landcolor='rgb(243, 243, 243)',
|
| 820 |
+
countrycolor='rgb(204, 204, 204)',
|
| 821 |
+
coastlinecolor='rgb(100, 100, 100)',
|
| 822 |
+
showocean=True,
|
| 823 |
+
oceancolor='rgb(230, 250, 255)',
|
| 824 |
+
),
|
| 825 |
+
updatemenus=[{
|
| 826 |
+
"buttons": [
|
| 827 |
+
{
|
| 828 |
+
"args": [None, {"frame": {"duration": 100, "redraw": True},
|
| 829 |
+
"fromcurrent": True,
|
| 830 |
+
"transition": {"duration": 0}}],
|
| 831 |
+
"label": "Play",
|
| 832 |
+
"method": "animate"
|
| 833 |
+
},
|
| 834 |
+
{
|
| 835 |
+
"args": [[None], {"frame": {"duration": 0, "redraw": True},
|
| 836 |
+
"mode": "immediate",
|
| 837 |
+
"transition": {"duration": 0}}],
|
| 838 |
+
"label": "Pause",
|
| 839 |
+
"method": "animate"
|
| 840 |
+
}
|
| 841 |
+
],
|
| 842 |
+
"direction": "left",
|
| 843 |
+
"pad": {"r": 10, "t": 87},
|
| 844 |
+
"showactive": False,
|
| 845 |
+
"type": "buttons",
|
| 846 |
+
"x": 0.1,
|
| 847 |
+
"xanchor": "right",
|
| 848 |
+
"y": 0,
|
| 849 |
+
"yanchor": "top"
|
| 850 |
+
}],
|
| 851 |
+
sliders=[{
|
| 852 |
+
"active": 0,
|
| 853 |
+
"yanchor": "top",
|
| 854 |
+
"xanchor": "left",
|
| 855 |
+
"currentvalue": {
|
| 856 |
+
"font": {"size": 20},
|
| 857 |
+
"prefix": "Time: ",
|
| 858 |
+
"visible": True,
|
| 859 |
+
"xanchor": "right"
|
| 860 |
+
},
|
| 861 |
+
"transition": {"duration": 100, "easing": "cubic-in-out"},
|
| 862 |
+
"pad": {"b": 10, "t": 50},
|
| 863 |
+
"len": 0.9,
|
| 864 |
+
"x": 0.1,
|
| 865 |
+
"y": 0,
|
| 866 |
+
"steps": [
|
| 867 |
+
{
|
| 868 |
+
"args": [[f"frame{k}"],
|
| 869 |
+
{"frame": {"duration": 100, "redraw": True},
|
| 870 |
+
"mode": "immediate",
|
| 871 |
+
"transition": {"duration": 0}}
|
| 872 |
+
],
|
| 873 |
+
"label": storm.time[k].strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M'),
|
| 874 |
+
"method": "animate"
|
| 875 |
+
}
|
| 876 |
+
for k in range(len(storm.time))
|
| 877 |
+
]
|
| 878 |
+
}]
|
| 879 |
+
)
|
| 880 |
+
|
| 881 |
+
return fig
|
| 882 |
+
|
| 883 |
+
@app.callback(
|
| 884 |
+
[Output('typhoon-routes-graph', 'figure'),
|
| 885 |
+
Output('cluster-equation-results', 'children')],
|
| 886 |
+
[Input('analyze-button', 'n_clicks'),
|
| 887 |
+
Input('show-clusters-button', 'n_clicks'),
|
| 888 |
+
Input('show-routes-button', 'n_clicks'),
|
| 889 |
+
Input('fourier-series-button', 'n_clicks')],
|
| 890 |
+
[State('start-year', 'value'),
|
| 891 |
+
State('start-month', 'value'),
|
| 892 |
+
State('end-year', 'value'),
|
| 893 |
+
State('end-month', 'value'),
|
| 894 |
+
State('n-clusters', 'value'),
|
| 895 |
+
State('enso-dropdown', 'value')]
|
| 896 |
+
)
|
| 897 |
+
|
| 898 |
+
def update_route_clusters(analyze_clicks, show_clusters_clicks, show_routes_clicks,
|
| 899 |
+
fourier_clicks, start_year, start_month, end_year, end_month,
|
| 900 |
+
n_clusters, enso_value):
|
| 901 |
+
ctx = dash.callback_context
|
| 902 |
+
button_id = ctx.triggered[0]['prop_id'].split('.')[0]
|
| 903 |
+
|
| 904 |
+
start_date = datetime(start_year, start_month, 1)
|
| 905 |
+
end_date = datetime(end_year, end_month, 28)
|
| 906 |
+
|
| 907 |
+
filtered_oni_df = oni_df[(oni_df.index >= start_date) & (oni_df.index <= end_date)]
|
| 908 |
+
|
| 909 |
+
fig_routes = go.Figure()
|
| 910 |
+
|
| 911 |
+
clusters = np.array([]) # Initialize as empty NumPy array
|
| 912 |
+
cluster_equations = []
|
| 913 |
+
|
| 914 |
+
# Clustering analysis
|
| 915 |
+
west_pacific_storms = []
|
| 916 |
+
for year in range(start_year, end_year + 1):
|
| 917 |
+
season = ibtracs.get_season(year)
|
| 918 |
+
for storm_id in season.summary()['id']:
|
| 919 |
+
storm = get_storm_data(storm_id)
|
| 920 |
+
storm_date = storm.time[0]
|
| 921 |
+
storm_oni = oni_df.loc[storm_date.strftime('%Y-%b')]['ONI']
|
| 922 |
+
if isinstance(storm_oni, pd.Series):
|
| 923 |
+
storm_oni = storm_oni.iloc[0]
|
| 924 |
+
storm_phase = classify_enso_phases(storm_oni)
|
| 925 |
+
|
| 926 |
+
if enso_value == 'all' or \
|
| 927 |
+
(enso_value == 'el_nino' and storm_phase == 'El Nino') or \
|
| 928 |
+
(enso_value == 'la_nina' and storm_phase == 'La Nina') or \
|
| 929 |
+
(enso_value == 'neutral' and storm_phase == 'Neutral'):
|
| 930 |
+
lons, lats = filter_west_pacific_coordinates(np.array(storm.lon), np.array(storm.lat))
|
| 931 |
+
if len(lons) > 1: # Ensure the storm has a valid path in West Pacific
|
| 932 |
+
west_pacific_storms.append((lons, lats))
|
| 933 |
+
|
| 934 |
+
max_length = max(len(storm[0]) for storm in west_pacific_storms)
|
| 935 |
+
standardized_routes = []
|
| 936 |
+
|
| 937 |
+
for lons, lats in west_pacific_storms:
|
| 938 |
+
if len(lons) < 2: # Skip if not enough points
|
| 939 |
+
continue
|
| 940 |
+
t = np.linspace(0, 1, len(lons))
|
| 941 |
+
t_new = np.linspace(0, 1, max_length)
|
| 942 |
+
lon_interp = interp1d(t, lons, kind='linear')(t_new)
|
| 943 |
+
lat_interp = interp1d(t, lats, kind='linear')(t_new)
|
| 944 |
+
route_vector = np.column_stack((lon_interp, lat_interp)).flatten()
|
| 945 |
+
standardized_routes.append(route_vector)
|
| 946 |
+
|
| 947 |
+
kmeans = KMeans(n_clusters=n_clusters, random_state=42, n_init=10)
|
| 948 |
+
clusters = kmeans.fit_predict(standardized_routes)
|
| 949 |
+
|
| 950 |
+
# Count the number of typhoons in each cluster
|
| 951 |
+
cluster_counts = np.bincount(clusters)
|
| 952 |
+
|
| 953 |
+
for lons, lats in west_pacific_storms:
|
| 954 |
+
fig_routes.add_trace(go.Scattergeo(
|
| 955 |
+
lon=lons, lat=lats,
|
| 956 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 957 |
+
line=dict(width=1, color='lightgray'),
|
| 958 |
+
showlegend=False,
|
| 959 |
+
hoverinfo='none',
|
| 960 |
+
visible=(button_id == 'show-routes-button')
|
| 961 |
+
))
|
| 962 |
+
|
| 963 |
+
equations_output = []
|
| 964 |
+
for i in range(n_clusters):
|
| 965 |
+
cluster_center = kmeans.cluster_centers_[i].reshape(-1, 2)
|
| 966 |
+
cluster_equations, (lon_min, lon_max) = generate_cluster_equations(cluster_center)
|
| 967 |
+
|
| 968 |
+
#equations_output.append(html.H4(f"Cluster {i+1} (Typhoons: {cluster_counts[i]})"))
|
| 969 |
+
equations_output.append(html.H4([
|
| 970 |
+
f"Cluster {i+1} (Typhoons: ",
|
| 971 |
+
html.Span(f"{cluster_counts[i]}", style={'color': 'blue'}),
|
| 972 |
+
")"
|
| 973 |
+
]))
|
| 974 |
+
for name, eq in cluster_equations:
|
| 975 |
+
equations_output.append(html.P(f"{name}: {eq}"))
|
| 976 |
+
|
| 977 |
+
equations_output.append(html.P("To use in GeoGebra:"))
|
| 978 |
+
equations_output.append(html.P(f"1. Set x-axis from 0 to {2*np.pi:.4f}"))
|
| 979 |
+
equations_output.append(html.P(f"2. Use the equation as is"))
|
| 980 |
+
equations_output.append(html.P(f"3. To convert x back to longitude: lon = {lon_min:.4f} + x * {(lon_max - lon_min) / (2*np.pi):.4f}"))
|
| 981 |
+
equations_output.append(html.Hr())
|
| 982 |
+
|
| 983 |
+
fig_routes.add_trace(go.Scattergeo(
|
| 984 |
+
lon=cluster_center[:, 0],
|
| 985 |
+
lat=cluster_center[:, 1],
|
| 986 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 987 |
+
name=f'Cluster {i+1} (n={cluster_counts[i]})',
|
| 988 |
+
line=dict(width=3),
|
| 989 |
+
visible=(button_id == 'show-clusters-button')
|
| 990 |
+
))
|
| 991 |
+
|
| 992 |
+
enso_phase_text = {
|
| 993 |
+
'all': 'All Years',
|
| 994 |
+
'el_nino': 'El Niño Years',
|
| 995 |
+
'la_nina': 'La Niña Years',
|
| 996 |
+
'neutral': 'Neutral Years'
|
| 997 |
+
}
|
| 998 |
+
fig_routes.update_layout(
|
| 999 |
+
title=f'Typhoon Routes Clustering in West Pacific ({start_year}-{end_year}) - {enso_phase_text[enso_value]}',
|
| 1000 |
+
geo=dict(
|
| 1001 |
+
projection_type='mercator',
|
| 1002 |
+
showland=True,
|
| 1003 |
+
landcolor='rgb(243, 243, 243)',
|
| 1004 |
+
countrycolor='rgb(204, 204, 204)',
|
| 1005 |
+
coastlinecolor='rgb(100, 100, 100)',
|
| 1006 |
+
showocean=True,
|
| 1007 |
+
oceancolor='rgb(230, 250, 255)',
|
| 1008 |
+
lataxis={'range': [0, 40]},
|
| 1009 |
+
lonaxis={'range': [100, 180]},
|
| 1010 |
+
center={'lat': 20, 'lon': 140},
|
| 1011 |
+
),
|
| 1012 |
+
legend_title='Clusters'
|
| 1013 |
+
)
|
| 1014 |
+
|
| 1015 |
+
return fig_routes, html.Div(equations_output)
|
| 1016 |
+
|
| 1017 |
+
@app.callback(
|
| 1018 |
+
[Output('typhoon-tracks-graph', 'figure'),
|
| 1019 |
+
Output('all-years-regression-graph', 'figure'),
|
| 1020 |
+
Output('regression-graphs', 'children'),
|
| 1021 |
+
Output('slopes', 'children'),
|
| 1022 |
+
Output('wind-oni-scatter-plot', 'figure'),
|
| 1023 |
+
Output('pressure-oni-scatter', 'figure'),
|
| 1024 |
+
Output('correlation-coefficient', 'children'),
|
| 1025 |
+
Output('max-wind-speed', 'children'),
|
| 1026 |
+
Output('min-pressure', 'children'),
|
| 1027 |
+
Output('wind-oni-correlation', 'children'),
|
| 1028 |
+
Output('pressure-oni-correlation', 'children'),
|
| 1029 |
+
Output('typhoon-count-analysis', 'children'),
|
| 1030 |
+
Output('concentrated-months-analysis', 'children')],
|
| 1031 |
+
[Input('analyze-button', 'n_clicks'),
|
| 1032 |
+
Input('find-typhoon-button', 'n_clicks')],
|
| 1033 |
+
[State('start-year', 'value'),
|
| 1034 |
+
State('start-month', 'value'),
|
| 1035 |
+
State('end-year', 'value'),
|
| 1036 |
+
State('end-month', 'value'),
|
| 1037 |
+
State('enso-dropdown', 'value'),
|
| 1038 |
+
State('typhoon-search', 'value')]
|
| 1039 |
+
)
|
| 1040 |
+
|
| 1041 |
+
def update_graphs(analyze_clicks, find_typhoon_clicks,
|
| 1042 |
+
start_year, start_month, end_year, end_month,
|
| 1043 |
+
enso_value, typhoon_search):
|
| 1044 |
+
ctx = dash.callback_context
|
| 1045 |
+
button_id = ctx.triggered[0]['prop_id'].split('.')[0]
|
| 1046 |
+
|
| 1047 |
+
start_date = datetime(start_year, start_month, 1)
|
| 1048 |
+
end_date = datetime(end_year, end_month, 28)
|
| 1049 |
+
|
| 1050 |
+
filtered_oni_df = oni_df[(oni_df.index >= start_date) & (oni_df.index <= end_date)]
|
| 1051 |
+
|
| 1052 |
+
|
| 1053 |
+
regression_data = {'El Nino': {'longitudes': [], 'oni_values': [], 'names': []},
|
| 1054 |
+
'La Nina': {'longitudes': [], 'oni_values': [], 'names': []},
|
| 1055 |
+
'Neutral': {'longitudes': [], 'oni_values': [], 'names': []},
|
| 1056 |
+
'All': {'longitudes': [], 'oni_values': [], 'names': []}}
|
| 1057 |
+
|
| 1058 |
+
fig_tracks = go.Figure()
|
| 1059 |
+
|
| 1060 |
+
def process_storm(year, storm_id):
|
| 1061 |
+
storm = get_storm_data(storm_id)
|
| 1062 |
+
storm_dates = storm.time
|
| 1063 |
+
if any(start_date <= date <= end_date for date in storm_dates):
|
| 1064 |
+
storm_oni = filtered_oni_df.loc[storm_dates[0].strftime('%Y-%b')]['ONI']
|
| 1065 |
+
if isinstance(storm_oni, pd.Series):
|
| 1066 |
+
storm_oni = storm_oni.iloc[0]
|
| 1067 |
+
phase = classify_enso_phases(storm_oni)
|
| 1068 |
+
|
| 1069 |
+
regression_data[phase]['longitudes'].append(storm.lon[0])
|
| 1070 |
+
regression_data[phase]['oni_values'].append(storm_oni)
|
| 1071 |
+
regression_data[phase]['names'].append(f'{storm.name} ({year})')
|
| 1072 |
+
regression_data['All']['longitudes'].append(storm.lon[0])
|
| 1073 |
+
regression_data['All']['oni_values'].append(storm_oni)
|
| 1074 |
+
regression_data['All']['names'].append(f'{storm.name} ({year})')
|
| 1075 |
+
|
| 1076 |
+
if (enso_value == 'all' or
|
| 1077 |
+
(enso_value == 'el_nino' and phase == 'El Nino') or
|
| 1078 |
+
(enso_value == 'la_nina' and phase == 'La Nina') or
|
| 1079 |
+
(enso_value == 'neutral' and phase == 'Neutral')):
|
| 1080 |
+
color = {'El Nino': 'red', 'La Nina': 'blue', 'Neutral': 'green'}[phase]
|
| 1081 |
+
return go.Scattergeo(
|
| 1082 |
+
lon=storm.lon,
|
| 1083 |
+
lat=storm.lat,
|
| 1084 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 1085 |
+
name=storm.name,
|
| 1086 |
+
text=f'{storm.name} ({year})',
|
| 1087 |
+
hoverinfo='text',
|
| 1088 |
+
line=dict(width=2, color=color)
|
| 1089 |
+
)
|
| 1090 |
+
return None
|
| 1091 |
+
|
| 1092 |
+
with ThreadPoolExecutor() as executor:
|
| 1093 |
+
futures = []
|
| 1094 |
+
for year in range(start_year, end_year + 1):
|
| 1095 |
+
season = ibtracs.get_season(year)
|
| 1096 |
+
for storm_id in season.summary()['id']:
|
| 1097 |
+
futures.append(executor.submit(process_storm, year, storm_id))
|
| 1098 |
+
|
| 1099 |
+
for future in futures:
|
| 1100 |
+
result = future.result()
|
| 1101 |
+
if result:
|
| 1102 |
+
fig_tracks.add_trace(result)
|
| 1103 |
+
|
| 1104 |
+
fig_tracks.update_layout(
|
| 1105 |
+
title=f'Typhoon Tracks from {start_year}-{start_month} to {end_year}-{end_month}',
|
| 1106 |
+
geo=dict(
|
| 1107 |
+
projection_type='natural earth',
|
| 1108 |
+
showland=True,
|
| 1109 |
+
)
|
| 1110 |
+
)
|
| 1111 |
+
|
| 1112 |
+
regression_figs = []
|
| 1113 |
+
slopes = []
|
| 1114 |
+
all_years_fig = go.Figure() # Initialize with an empty figure
|
| 1115 |
+
|
| 1116 |
+
for phase in ['El Nino', 'La Nina', 'Neutral', 'All']:
|
| 1117 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 1118 |
+
'Longitude': regression_data[phase]['longitudes'],
|
| 1119 |
+
'ONI': regression_data[phase]['oni_values'],
|
| 1120 |
+
'Name': regression_data[phase]['names']
|
| 1121 |
+
})
|
| 1122 |
+
|
| 1123 |
+
if not df.empty and len(df) > 1: # Ensure there's enough data for regression
|
| 1124 |
+
try:
|
| 1125 |
+
fig = px.scatter(df, x='Longitude', y='ONI', hover_data=['Name'],
|
| 1126 |
+
labels={'Longitude': 'Longitude of Typhoon Generation', 'ONI': 'ONI Value'},
|
| 1127 |
+
title=f'Typhoon Generation Location vs. ONI ({phase})')
|
| 1128 |
+
|
| 1129 |
+
X = np.array(df['Longitude']).reshape(-1, 1)
|
| 1130 |
+
y = df['ONI']
|
| 1131 |
+
model = LinearRegression()
|
| 1132 |
+
model.fit(X, y)
|
| 1133 |
+
y_pred = model.predict(X)
|
| 1134 |
+
slope = model.coef_[0]
|
| 1135 |
+
intercept = model.intercept_
|
| 1136 |
+
fraction_slope = Fraction(slope).limit_denominator()
|
| 1137 |
+
equation = f'ONI = {fraction_slope} * Longitude + {Fraction(intercept).limit_denominator()}'
|
| 1138 |
+
|
| 1139 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=df['Longitude'], y=y_pred, mode='lines', name='Regression Line'))
|
| 1140 |
+
fig.add_annotation(x=df['Longitude'].mean(), y=y_pred.mean(),
|
| 1141 |
+
text=equation, showarrow=False, yshift=10)
|
| 1142 |
+
|
| 1143 |
+
if phase == 'All':
|
| 1144 |
+
all_years_fig = fig
|
| 1145 |
+
else:
|
| 1146 |
+
regression_figs.append(dcc.Graph(figure=fig))
|
| 1147 |
+
|
| 1148 |
+
correlation_coef = np.corrcoef(df['Longitude'], df['ONI'])[0, 1]
|
| 1149 |
+
slopes.append(html.P(f'{phase} Regression Slope: {slope:.4f}, Correlation Coefficient: {correlation_coef:.4f}'))
|
| 1150 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 1151 |
+
print(f"Error in regression analysis for {phase}: {str(e)}")
|
| 1152 |
+
if phase != 'All':
|
| 1153 |
+
regression_figs.append(html.Div(f"Error in analysis for {phase}"))
|
| 1154 |
+
slopes.append(html.P(f'{phase} Regression: Error in analysis'))
|
| 1155 |
+
else:
|
| 1156 |
+
if phase != 'All':
|
| 1157 |
+
regression_figs.append(html.Div(f"Insufficient data for {phase}"))
|
| 1158 |
+
slopes.append(html.P(f'{phase} Regression: Insufficient data'))
|
| 1159 |
+
|
| 1160 |
+
if all_years_fig.data == ():
|
| 1161 |
+
all_years_fig = go.Figure()
|
| 1162 |
+
all_years_fig.add_annotation(text="No data available for regression analysis",
|
| 1163 |
+
xref="paper", yref="paper",
|
| 1164 |
+
x=0.5, y=0.5, showarrow=False)
|
| 1165 |
+
|
| 1166 |
+
if button_id == 'find-typhoon-button' and typhoon_search:
|
| 1167 |
+
for trace in fig_tracks.data:
|
| 1168 |
+
if typhoon_search.lower() in trace.name.lower():
|
| 1169 |
+
trace.line.width = 5
|
| 1170 |
+
trace.line.color = 'yellow'
|
| 1171 |
+
|
| 1172 |
+
filtered_data = merged_data[
|
| 1173 |
+
(merged_data['Year'] >= start_year) &
|
| 1174 |
+
(merged_data['Year'] <= end_year) &
|
| 1175 |
+
(merged_data['Month'].astype(int) >= start_month) &
|
| 1176 |
+
(merged_data['Month'].astype(int) <= end_month)
|
| 1177 |
+
]
|
| 1178 |
+
|
| 1179 |
+
wind_oni_scatter = px.scatter(filtered_data, x='ONI', y='USA_WIND', color='Category',
|
| 1180 |
+
hover_data=['NAME', 'Year','Category'],
|
| 1181 |
+
title='Wind Speed vs ONI',
|
| 1182 |
+
labels={'ONI': 'ONI Value', 'USA_WIND': 'Maximum Wind Speed (knots)'},
|
| 1183 |
+
color_discrete_map=color_map)
|
| 1184 |
+
wind_oni_scatter.update_traces(hovertemplate='<b>%{customdata[0]} (%{customdata[1]})</b><br>Category: %{customdata[2]}<br>ONI: %{x}<br>Wind Speed: %{y} knots')
|
| 1185 |
+
|
| 1186 |
+
pressure_oni_scatter = px.scatter(filtered_data, x='ONI', y='USA_PRES',color='Category',
|
| 1187 |
+
hover_data=['NAME', 'Year','Category'],
|
| 1188 |
+
title='Pressure vs ONI',
|
| 1189 |
+
labels={'ONI': 'ONI Value', 'USA_PRES': 'Minimum Pressure (hPa)'},
|
| 1190 |
+
color_discrete_map=color_map)
|
| 1191 |
+
pressure_oni_scatter.update_traces(hovertemplate='<b>%{customdata[0]} (%{customdata[1]})</b><br>Category: %{customdata[2]}<br>ONI: %{x}<br>Pressure: %{y} hPa')
|
| 1192 |
+
|
| 1193 |
+
if typhoon_search:
|
| 1194 |
+
for fig in [wind_oni_scatter, pressure_oni_scatter]:
|
| 1195 |
+
mask = filtered_data['NAME'].str.contains(typhoon_search, case=False, na=False)
|
| 1196 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 1197 |
+
x=filtered_data.loc[mask, 'ONI'],
|
| 1198 |
+
y=filtered_data.loc[mask, 'USA_WIND' if 'Wind' in fig.layout.title.text else 'USA_PRES'],
|
| 1199 |
+
mode='markers',
|
| 1200 |
+
marker=dict(size=10, color='red', symbol='star'),
|
| 1201 |
+
name=f'Matched: {typhoon_search}',
|
| 1202 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{text}</b><br>Category: %{customdata}<br>ONI: %{x}<br>Value: %{y}',
|
| 1203 |
+
text=filtered_data.loc[mask, 'NAME'] + ' (' + filtered_data.loc[mask, 'Year'].astype(str) + ')',
|
| 1204 |
+
customdata=filtered_data.loc[mask, 'Category']
|
| 1205 |
+
))
|
| 1206 |
+
|
| 1207 |
+
|
| 1208 |
+
start_date = datetime(start_year, start_month, 1)
|
| 1209 |
+
end_date = datetime(end_year, end_month, 28)
|
| 1210 |
+
typhoon_counts, concentrated_months = analyze_typhoon_generation(merged_data, start_date, end_date)
|
| 1211 |
+
|
| 1212 |
+
month_names = ['Jan', 'Feb', 'Mar', 'Apr', 'May', 'Jun', 'Jul', 'Aug', 'Sep', 'Oct', 'Nov', 'Dec']
|
| 1213 |
+
count_analysis = [html.P(f"{phase}: {count} typhoons") for phase, count in typhoon_counts.items()]
|
| 1214 |
+
month_analysis = [html.P(f"{phase}: Most concentrated in {month_names[month-1]}") for phase, month in concentrated_months.items()]
|
| 1215 |
+
|
| 1216 |
+
max_wind_speed = filtered_data['USA_WIND'].max()
|
| 1217 |
+
min_pressure = typhoon_data[(typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'].dt.year >= start_year) &
|
| 1218 |
+
(typhoon_data['ISO_TIME'].dt.year <= end_year)]['WMO_PRES'].min()
|
| 1219 |
+
|
| 1220 |
+
correlation_text = f"Logistic Regression Results: see below"
|
| 1221 |
+
max_wind_speed_text = f"Maximum Wind Speed: {max_wind_speed:.2f} knots"
|
| 1222 |
+
min_pressure_text = f"Minimum Pressure: {min_pressure:.2f} hPa"
|
| 1223 |
+
|
| 1224 |
+
|
| 1225 |
+
return (fig_tracks, all_years_fig, regression_figs, slopes,
|
| 1226 |
+
wind_oni_scatter, pressure_oni_scatter,
|
| 1227 |
+
correlation_text, max_wind_speed_text, min_pressure_text,
|
| 1228 |
+
"Wind-ONI correlation: See logistic regression results",
|
| 1229 |
+
"Pressure-ONI correlation: See logistic regression results",
|
| 1230 |
+
count_analysis, month_analysis)
|
| 1231 |
+
|
| 1232 |
+
@app.callback(
|
| 1233 |
+
Output('logistic-regression-results', 'children'),
|
| 1234 |
+
[Input('wind-regression-button', 'n_clicks'),
|
| 1235 |
+
Input('pressure-regression-button', 'n_clicks'),
|
| 1236 |
+
Input('longitude-regression-button', 'n_clicks')],
|
| 1237 |
+
[State('start-year', 'value'),
|
| 1238 |
+
State('start-month', 'value'),
|
| 1239 |
+
State('end-year', 'value'),
|
| 1240 |
+
State('end-month', 'value')]
|
| 1241 |
+
)
|
| 1242 |
+
def update_logistic_regression(wind_clicks, pressure_clicks, longitude_clicks,
|
| 1243 |
+
start_year, start_month, end_year, end_month):
|
| 1244 |
+
ctx = dash.callback_context
|
| 1245 |
+
if not ctx.triggered:
|
| 1246 |
+
return "Click a button to see logistic regression results."
|
| 1247 |
+
|
| 1248 |
+
button_id = ctx.triggered[0]['prop_id'].split('.')[0]
|
| 1249 |
+
|
| 1250 |
+
start_date = datetime(start_year, start_month, 1)
|
| 1251 |
+
end_date = datetime(end_year, end_month, 28)
|
| 1252 |
+
|
| 1253 |
+
filtered_data = merged_data[
|
| 1254 |
+
(merged_data['ISO_TIME'] >= start_date) &
|
| 1255 |
+
(merged_data['ISO_TIME'] <= end_date)
|
| 1256 |
+
]
|
| 1257 |
+
|
| 1258 |
+
if button_id == 'wind-regression-button':
|
| 1259 |
+
return calculate_wind_logistic_regression(filtered_data)
|
| 1260 |
+
elif button_id == 'pressure-regression-button':
|
| 1261 |
+
return calculate_pressure_logistic_regression(filtered_data)
|
| 1262 |
+
elif button_id == 'longitude-regression-button':
|
| 1263 |
+
return calculate_longitude_logistic_regression(filtered_data)
|
| 1264 |
+
|
| 1265 |
+
def calculate_wind_logistic_regression(data):
|
| 1266 |
+
data['severe_typhoon'] = (data['USA_WIND'] >= 64).astype(int) # 64 knots threshold for severe typhoons
|
| 1267 |
+
X = sm.add_constant(data['ONI'])
|
| 1268 |
+
y = data['severe_typhoon']
|
| 1269 |
+
model = sm.Logit(y, X).fit()
|
| 1270 |
+
|
| 1271 |
+
beta_1 = model.params['ONI']
|
| 1272 |
+
exp_beta_1 = np.exp(beta_1)
|
| 1273 |
+
p_value = model.pvalues['ONI']
|
| 1274 |
+
|
| 1275 |
+
el_nino_data = data[data['ONI'] >= 0.5]
|
| 1276 |
+
la_nina_data = data[data['ONI'] <= -0.5]
|
| 1277 |
+
neutral_data = data[(data['ONI'] > -0.5) & (data['ONI'] < 0.5)]
|
| 1278 |
+
|
| 1279 |
+
el_nino_severe = el_nino_data['severe_typhoon'].mean()
|
| 1280 |
+
la_nina_severe = la_nina_data['severe_typhoon'].mean()
|
| 1281 |
+
neutral_severe = neutral_data['severe_typhoon'].mean()
|
| 1282 |
+
|
| 1283 |
+
return html.Div([
|
| 1284 |
+
html.H3("Wind Speed Logistic Regression Results"),
|
| 1285 |
+
html.P(f"β1 (ONI coefficient): {beta_1:.4f}"),
|
| 1286 |
+
html.P(f"exp(β1) (Odds Ratio): {exp_beta_1:.4f}"),
|
| 1287 |
+
html.P(f"P-value: {p_value:.4f}"),
|
| 1288 |
+
html.P("Interpretation:"),
|
| 1289 |
+
html.Ul([
|
| 1290 |
+
html.Li(f"For each unit increase in ONI, the odds of a severe typhoon are "
|
| 1291 |
+
f"{'increased' if exp_beta_1 > 1 else 'decreased'} by a factor of {exp_beta_1:.2f}."),
|
| 1292 |
+
html.Li(f"This effect is {'statistically significant' if p_value < 0.05 else 'not statistically significant'} "
|
| 1293 |
+
f"at the 0.05 level.")
|
| 1294 |
+
]),
|
| 1295 |
+
html.P("Proportion of severe typhoons:"),
|
| 1296 |
+
html.Ul([
|
| 1297 |
+
html.Li(f"El Niño conditions: {el_nino_severe:.2%}"),
|
| 1298 |
+
html.Li(f"La Niña conditions: {la_nina_severe:.2%}"),
|
| 1299 |
+
html.Li(f"Neutral conditions: {neutral_severe:.2%}")
|
| 1300 |
+
])
|
| 1301 |
+
])
|
| 1302 |
+
|
| 1303 |
+
def calculate_pressure_logistic_regression(data):
|
| 1304 |
+
data['intense_typhoon'] = (data['USA_PRES'] <= 950).astype(int) # 950 hPa threshold for intense typhoons
|
| 1305 |
+
X = sm.add_constant(data['ONI'])
|
| 1306 |
+
y = data['intense_typhoon']
|
| 1307 |
+
model = sm.Logit(y, X).fit()
|
| 1308 |
+
|
| 1309 |
+
beta_1 = model.params['ONI']
|
| 1310 |
+
exp_beta_1 = np.exp(beta_1)
|
| 1311 |
+
p_value = model.pvalues['ONI']
|
| 1312 |
+
|
| 1313 |
+
el_nino_data = data[data['ONI'] >= 0.5]
|
| 1314 |
+
la_nina_data = data[data['ONI'] <= -0.5]
|
| 1315 |
+
neutral_data = data[(data['ONI'] > -0.5) & (data['ONI'] < 0.5)]
|
| 1316 |
+
|
| 1317 |
+
el_nino_intense = el_nino_data['intense_typhoon'].mean()
|
| 1318 |
+
la_nina_intense = la_nina_data['intense_typhoon'].mean()
|
| 1319 |
+
neutral_intense = neutral_data['intense_typhoon'].mean()
|
| 1320 |
+
|
| 1321 |
+
return html.Div([
|
| 1322 |
+
html.H3("Pressure Logistic Regression Results"),
|
| 1323 |
+
html.P(f"β1 (ONI coefficient): {beta_1:.4f}"),
|
| 1324 |
+
html.P(f"exp(β1) (Odds Ratio): {exp_beta_1:.4f}"),
|
| 1325 |
+
html.P(f"P-value: {p_value:.4f}"),
|
| 1326 |
+
html.P("Interpretation:"),
|
| 1327 |
+
html.Ul([
|
| 1328 |
+
html.Li(f"For each unit increase in ONI, the odds of an intense typhoon (pressure <= 950 hPa) are "
|
| 1329 |
+
f"{'increased' if exp_beta_1 > 1 else 'decreased'} by a factor of {exp_beta_1:.2f}."),
|
| 1330 |
+
html.Li(f"This effect is {'statistically significant' if p_value < 0.05 else 'not statistically significant'} "
|
| 1331 |
+
f"at the 0.05 level.")
|
| 1332 |
+
]),
|
| 1333 |
+
html.P("Proportion of intense typhoons:"),
|
| 1334 |
+
html.Ul([
|
| 1335 |
+
html.Li(f"El Niño conditions: {el_nino_intense:.2%}"),
|
| 1336 |
+
html.Li(f"La Niña conditions: {la_nina_intense:.2%}"),
|
| 1337 |
+
html.Li(f"Neutral conditions: {neutral_intense:.2%}")
|
| 1338 |
+
])
|
| 1339 |
+
])
|
| 1340 |
+
|
| 1341 |
+
def calculate_longitude_logistic_regression(data):
|
| 1342 |
+
# Use only the data points where longitude is available
|
| 1343 |
+
data = data.dropna(subset=['LON'])
|
| 1344 |
+
|
| 1345 |
+
if len(data) == 0:
|
| 1346 |
+
return html.Div("Insufficient data for longitude analysis")
|
| 1347 |
+
|
| 1348 |
+
data['western_typhoon'] = (data['LON'] <= 140).astype(int) # 140°E as threshold for western typhoons
|
| 1349 |
+
X = sm.add_constant(data['ONI'])
|
| 1350 |
+
y = data['western_typhoon']
|
| 1351 |
+
model = sm.Logit(y, X).fit()
|
| 1352 |
+
|
| 1353 |
+
beta_1 = model.params['ONI']
|
| 1354 |
+
exp_beta_1 = np.exp(beta_1)
|
| 1355 |
+
p_value = model.pvalues['ONI']
|
| 1356 |
+
|
| 1357 |
+
el_nino_data = data[data['ONI'] >= 0.5]
|
| 1358 |
+
la_nina_data = data[data['ONI'] <= -0.5]
|
| 1359 |
+
neutral_data = data[(data['ONI'] > -0.5) & (data['ONI'] < 0.5)]
|
| 1360 |
+
|
| 1361 |
+
el_nino_western = el_nino_data['western_typhoon'].mean()
|
| 1362 |
+
la_nina_western = la_nina_data['western_typhoon'].mean()
|
| 1363 |
+
neutral_western = neutral_data['western_typhoon'].mean()
|
| 1364 |
+
|
| 1365 |
+
return html.Div([
|
| 1366 |
+
html.H3("Longitude Logistic Regression Results"),
|
| 1367 |
+
html.P(f"β1 (ONI coefficient): {beta_1:.4f}"),
|
| 1368 |
+
html.P(f"exp(β1) (Odds Ratio): {exp_beta_1:.4f}"),
|
| 1369 |
+
html.P(f"P-value: {p_value:.4f}"),
|
| 1370 |
+
html.P("Interpretation:"),
|
| 1371 |
+
html.Ul([
|
| 1372 |
+
html.Li(f"For each unit increase in ONI, the odds of a typhoon forming west of 140°E are "
|
| 1373 |
+
f"{'increased' if exp_beta_1 > 1 else 'decreased'} by a factor of {exp_beta_1:.2f}."),
|
| 1374 |
+
html.Li(f"This effect is {'statistically significant' if p_value < 0.05 else 'not statistically significant'} "
|
| 1375 |
+
f"at the 0.05 level.")
|
| 1376 |
+
]),
|
| 1377 |
+
html.P("Proportion of typhoons forming west of 140°E:"),
|
| 1378 |
+
html.Ul([
|
| 1379 |
+
html.Li(f"El Niño conditions: {el_nino_western:.2%}"),
|
| 1380 |
+
html.Li(f"La Niña conditions: {la_nina_western:.2%}"),
|
| 1381 |
+
html.Li(f"Neutral conditions: {neutral_western:.2%}")
|
| 1382 |
+
])
|
| 1383 |
+
])
|
| 1384 |
+
|
| 1385 |
+
def categorize_typhoon_by_standard(wind_speed, standard='atlantic'):
|
| 1386 |
+
"""
|
| 1387 |
+
Categorize typhoon based on wind speed and chosen standard
|
| 1388 |
+
wind_speed is in knots
|
| 1389 |
+
"""
|
| 1390 |
+
if standard == 'taiwan':
|
| 1391 |
+
# Convert knots to m/s for Taiwan standard
|
| 1392 |
+
wind_speed_ms = wind_speed * 0.514444
|
| 1393 |
+
|
| 1394 |
+
if wind_speed_ms >= 51.0:
|
| 1395 |
+
return 'Strong Typhoon', taiwan_standard['Strong Typhoon']['color']
|
| 1396 |
+
elif wind_speed_ms >= 33.7:
|
| 1397 |
+
return 'Medium Typhoon', taiwan_standard['Medium Typhoon']['color']
|
| 1398 |
+
elif wind_speed_ms >= 17.2:
|
| 1399 |
+
return 'Mild Typhoon', taiwan_standard['Mild Typhoon']['color']
|
| 1400 |
+
else:
|
| 1401 |
+
return 'Tropical Depression', taiwan_standard['Tropical Depression']['color']
|
| 1402 |
+
else:
|
| 1403 |
+
# Atlantic standard uses knots
|
| 1404 |
+
if wind_speed >= 137:
|
| 1405 |
+
return 'C5 Super Typhoon', atlantic_standard['C5 Super Typhoon']['color']
|
| 1406 |
+
elif wind_speed >= 113:
|
| 1407 |
+
return 'C4 Very Strong Typhoon', atlantic_standard['C4 Very Strong Typhoon']['color']
|
| 1408 |
+
elif wind_speed >= 96:
|
| 1409 |
+
return 'C3 Strong Typhoon', atlantic_standard['C3 Strong Typhoon']['color']
|
| 1410 |
+
elif wind_speed >= 83:
|
| 1411 |
+
return 'C2 Typhoon', atlantic_standard['C2 Typhoon']['color']
|
| 1412 |
+
elif wind_speed >= 64:
|
| 1413 |
+
return 'C1 Typhoon', atlantic_standard['C1 Typhoon']['color']
|
| 1414 |
+
elif wind_speed >= 34:
|
| 1415 |
+
return 'Tropical Storm', atlantic_standard['Tropical Storm']['color']
|
| 1416 |
+
else:
|
| 1417 |
+
return 'Tropical Depression', atlantic_standard['Tropical Depression']['color']
|
| 1418 |
+
|
| 1419 |
+
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 1420 |
+
print(f"Using data path: {DATA_PATH}")
|
| 1421 |
+
# Update ONI data before starting the application
|
| 1422 |
+
update_oni_data()
|
| 1423 |
+
oni_df = fetch_oni_data_from_csv(ONI_DATA_PATH)
|
| 1424 |
+
ibtracs = load_ibtracs_data()
|
| 1425 |
+
convert_typhoondata(LOCAL_iBtrace_PATH, TYPHOON_DATA_PATH)
|
| 1426 |
+
oni_data, typhoon_data = load_data(ONI_DATA_PATH, TYPHOON_DATA_PATH)
|
| 1427 |
+
oni_long = process_oni_data_with_cache(oni_data)
|
| 1428 |
+
typhoon_max = process_typhoon_data_with_cache(typhoon_data)
|
| 1429 |
+
merged_data = merge_data(oni_long, typhoon_max)
|
| 1430 |
+
data = preprocess_data(oni_data, typhoon_data)
|
| 1431 |
+
max_wind_speed, min_pressure = calculate_max_wind_min_pressure(typhoon_data)
|
| 1432 |
+
|
| 1433 |
+
|
| 1434 |
+
# Schedule IBTrACS data update daily
|
| 1435 |
+
schedule.every().day.at("01:00").do(update_ibtracs_data)
|
| 1436 |
+
|
| 1437 |
+
# Schedule ONI data check daily, but only update on specified dates
|
| 1438 |
+
schedule.every().day.at("00:00").do(lambda: update_oni_data() if should_update_oni() else None)
|
| 1439 |
+
|
| 1440 |
+
# Run the scheduler in a separate thread
|
| 1441 |
+
scheduler_thread = threading.Thread(target=run_schedule)
|
| 1442 |
+
scheduler_thread.start()
|
| 1443 |
+
|
| 1444 |
+
|
| 1445 |
+
app.run_server(debug=True, host='127.0.0.1', port=8050)
|