data/state.json

{
  "trades": [],
  "pnl": 3.43,
  "last_scan": "2026-06-05T09:47:27.212284+00:00",
  "last_signals": [
    {
      "market_id": "540818",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:23.561080+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.4824,
      "market_price": 0.51,
      "edge": 0.0276,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1233,
      "strength": 0.176,
      "confidence": 0.692,
      "kelly_raw": 0.054,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0135,
      "kelly_pct": 1.4,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?",
      "end_date": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 204.47295400000004
    },
    {
      "market_id": "540820",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:23.798182+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "YES",
      "P_YES": 0.5434,
      "market_price": 0.505,
      "edge": 0.0384,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0656,
      "strength": 0.434,
      "confidence": 0.836,
      "kelly_raw": 0.0775,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0194,
      "kelly_pct": 1.9,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Trump out as President before GTA VI?",
      "end_date": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 167.17137
    },
    {
      "market_id": "540844",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:24.037985+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.4867,
      "market_price": 0.4925,
      "edge": 0.0058,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1081,
      "strength": 0.133,
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "kelly_raw": 0.0118,
      "kelly_applied": 0.003,
      "kelly_pct": 0.3,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?",
      "end_date": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 2236.8100819999995
    },
    {
      "market_id": "544092",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:24.282743+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "YES",
      "P_YES": 0.8479,
      "market_price": 0.825,
      "edge": 0.0229,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1142,
      "strength": 0.66,
      "confidence": 0.714,
      "kelly_raw": 0.1306,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0146,
      "kelly_pct": 1.5,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?",
      "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 171.346264
    },
    {
      "market_id": "544093",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:24.532429+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.0659,
      "market_price": 0.0345,
      "edge": -0.0314,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.075,
      "strength": 0.947,
      "confidence": 0.812,
      "kelly_raw": -0.9103,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0,
      "kelly_pct": 0.0,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in p",
      "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 127.53
    },
    {
      "market_id": "544094",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:24.773421+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.0571,
      "market_price": 0.0315,
      "edge": -0.0256,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0481,
      "strength": 0.976,
      "confidence": 0.88,
      "kelly_raw": -0.8134,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0,
      "kelly_pct": 0.0,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years",
      "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 206.1
    },
    {
      "market_id": "544096",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.018457+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.1231,
      "market_price": 0.076,
      "edge": -0.0471,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0972,
      "strength": 0.756,
      "confidence": 0.757,
      "kelly_raw": -0.6195,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0,
      "kelly_pct": 0.0,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 year",
      "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 84.978888
    },
    {
      "market_id": "544097",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.259574+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.0327,
      "market_price": 0.02,
      "edge": -0.0127,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0288,
      "strength": 1.0,
      "confidence": 0.928,
      "kelly_raw": -0.6357,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0,
      "kelly_pct": 0.0,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in ",
      "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 437.631735
    },
    {
      "market_id": "553824",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.500307+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "YES",
      "P_YES": 0.6163,
      "market_price": 0.555,
      "edge": 0.0613,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0996,
      "strength": 1.163,
      "confidence": 0.751,
      "kelly_raw": 0.1378,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0154,
      "kelly_pct": 1.5,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?",
      "end_date": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 114736.19148100007
    },
    {
      "market_id": "553829",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.752316+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.484,
      "market_price": 0.446,
      "edge": -0.038,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0587,
      "strength": 0.16,
      "confidence": 0.853,
      "kelly_raw": -0.0852,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0,
      "kelly_pct": 0.0,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?",
      "end_date": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 233833.64711799996
    },
    {
      "market_id": "553858",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.987724+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.4947,
      "market_price": 0.5375,
      "edge": 0.0428,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0587,
      "strength": 0.053,
      "confidence": 0.853,
      "kelly_raw": 0.0796,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0199,
      "kelly_pct": 2.0,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?",
      "end_date": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 218935.07199099995
    },
    {
      "market_id": "553866",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:26.227544+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.4614,
      "market_price": 0.4635,
      "edge": 0.0021,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1207,
      "strength": 0.386,
      "confidence": 0.698,
      "kelly_raw": 0.0046,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0012,
      "kelly_pct": 0.1,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?",
      "end_date": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 436424.19923500007
    },
    {
      "market_id": "556108",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:26.473040+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.1339,
      "market_price": 0.1445,
      "edge": 0.0106,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1055,
      "strength": 0.72,
      "confidence": 0.736,
      "kelly_raw": 0.0736,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0184,
      "kelly_pct": 1.8,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? ",
      "end_date": "2026-07-01T04:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 5126.380352
    },
    {
      "market_id": "558934",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:26.722972+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.18,
      "market_price": 0.1595,
      "edge": -0.0205,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0781,
      "strength": 0.567,
      "confidence": 0.805,
      "kelly_raw": -0.1285,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0,
      "kelly_pct": 0.0,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?",
      "end_date": "2026-07-20T00:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 566642.8406379998
    },
    {
      "market_id": "558935",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:26.963651+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.1472,
      "market_price": 0.1135,
      "edge": -0.0337,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0817,
      "strength": 0.676,
      "confidence": 0.796,
      "kelly_raw": -0.2969,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0,
      "kelly_pct": 0.0,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?",
      "end_date": "2026-07-20T00:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 786955.6415919999
    },
    {
      "market_id": "558936",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:27.211994+00:00",
      "direction": "HOLD",
      "side": "NO",
      "P_YES": 0.1683,
      "market_price": 0.1595,
      "edge": -0.0088,
      "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0793,
      "strength": 0.606,
      "confidence": 0.802,
      "kelly_raw": -0.0551,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0,
      "kelly_pct": 0.0,
      "suggested_position": 0,
      "polyclaw_command": "HOLD",
      "model": "Chronos2Forecaster",
      "ensemble_size": null,
      "question": "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?",
      "end_date": "2026-07-20T00:00:00Z",
      "volume_24h": 847314.7300999993
    }
  ],
  "model_id": "amazon/chronos-2",
  "model_type": "chronos2",
  "model_size": "base",
  "params_m": 14,
  "open_positions": [
    {
      "market_id": "540817",
      "question": "New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?",
      "side": "NO",
      "size": 35,
      "entry_price": 0.51,
      "entry_time": "2026-05-30T10:18:15.990061+00:00",
      "peak_price": 0.505,
      "trailing_stop": 0.58075,
      "direction": "BUY_NO_WEAK",
      "kelly_raw": 0.1424,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0356,
      "pnl_pct": 0.0098,
      "pnl_dollars": 0.36,
      "current_value": 35.36,
      "last_price": 0.505,
      "last_checked": "2026-06-05T09:47:22.212997+00:00"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "544095",
      "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 a",
      "side": "NO",
      "size": 42,
      "entry_price": 0.116,
      "entry_time": "2026-05-31T17:24:34.681509+00:00",
      "peak_price": 0.0595,
      "trailing_stop": 0.06842499999999999,
      "direction": "BUY_NO",
      "kelly_raw": 0.2585,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0457,
      "pnl_pct": 0.4871,
      "pnl_dollars": 2.68,
      "current_value": 44.68,
      "last_checked": "2026-06-05T09:47:22.212997+00:00",
      "last_price": 0.0595,
      "take_profit_triggered": true
    },
    {
      "market_id": "540843",
      "question": "Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?",
      "side": "NO",
      "size": 38,
      "entry_price": 0.51,
      "entry_time": "2026-05-31T17:24:31.283218+00:00",
      "peak_price": 0.505,
      "trailing_stop": 0.58075,
      "direction": "BUY_NO_WEAK",
      "kelly_raw": 0.2365,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0418,
      "pnl_pct": 0.0098,
      "pnl_dollars": 0.39,
      "current_value": 38.39,
      "last_checked": "2026-06-05T09:47:22.212997+00:00",
      "last_price": 0.505
    },
    {
      "market_id": "540819",
      "question": "Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?",
      "side": "NO",
      "size": 29,
      "entry_price": 0.485,
      "entry_time": "2026-05-31T17:24:30.175613+00:00",
      "peak_price": 0.485,
      "trailing_stop": 0.55775,
      "direction": "BUY_NO_WEAK",
      "kelly_raw": 0.1784,
      "kelly_applied": 0.0315,
      "pnl_pct": 0.0,
      "pnl_dollars": 0.0,
      "current_value": 29.0,
      "last_checked": "2026-06-05T09:47:22.212997+00:00",
      "last_price": 0.485
    }
  ],
  "capital": 856.0
}