{ "trades": [], "pnl": 3.43, "last_scan": "2026-06-05T09:47:27.212284+00:00", "last_signals": [ { "market_id": "540818", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:23.561080+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.4824, "market_price": 0.51, "edge": 0.0276, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1233, "strength": 0.176, "confidence": 0.692, "kelly_raw": 0.054, "kelly_applied": 0.0135, "kelly_pct": 1.4, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?", "end_date": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 204.47295400000004 }, { "market_id": "540820", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:23.798182+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "YES", "P_YES": 0.5434, "market_price": 0.505, "edge": 0.0384, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0656, "strength": 0.434, "confidence": 0.836, "kelly_raw": 0.0775, "kelly_applied": 0.0194, "kelly_pct": 1.9, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Trump out as President before GTA VI?", "end_date": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 167.17137 }, { "market_id": "540844", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:24.037985+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.4867, "market_price": 0.4925, "edge": 0.0058, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1081, "strength": 0.133, "confidence": 0.73, "kelly_raw": 0.0118, "kelly_applied": 0.003, "kelly_pct": 0.3, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?", "end_date": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 2236.8100819999995 }, { "market_id": "544092", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:24.282743+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "YES", "P_YES": 0.8479, "market_price": 0.825, "edge": 0.0229, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1142, "strength": 0.66, "confidence": 0.714, "kelly_raw": 0.1306, "kelly_applied": 0.0146, "kelly_pct": 1.5, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?", "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 171.346264 }, { "market_id": "544093", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:24.532429+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.0659, "market_price": 0.0345, "edge": -0.0314, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.075, "strength": 0.947, "confidence": 0.812, "kelly_raw": -0.9103, "kelly_applied": 0.0, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in p", "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 127.53 }, { "market_id": "544094", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:24.773421+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.0571, "market_price": 0.0315, "edge": -0.0256, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0481, "strength": 0.976, "confidence": 0.88, "kelly_raw": -0.8134, "kelly_applied": 0.0, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years", "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 206.1 }, { "market_id": "544096", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.018457+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.1231, "market_price": 0.076, "edge": -0.0471, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0972, "strength": 0.756, "confidence": 0.757, "kelly_raw": -0.6195, "kelly_applied": 0.0, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 year", "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 84.978888 }, { "market_id": "544097", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.259574+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.0327, "market_price": 0.02, "edge": -0.0127, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0288, "strength": 1.0, "confidence": 0.928, "kelly_raw": -0.6357, "kelly_applied": 0.0, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in ", "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 437.631735 }, { "market_id": "553824", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.500307+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "YES", "P_YES": 0.6163, "market_price": 0.555, "edge": 0.0613, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0996, "strength": 1.163, "confidence": 0.751, "kelly_raw": 0.1378, "kelly_applied": 0.0154, "kelly_pct": 1.5, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?", "end_date": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 114736.19148100007 }, { "market_id": "553829", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.752316+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.484, "market_price": 0.446, "edge": -0.038, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0587, "strength": 0.16, "confidence": 0.853, "kelly_raw": -0.0852, "kelly_applied": 0.0, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?", "end_date": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 233833.64711799996 }, { "market_id": "553858", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:25.987724+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.4947, "market_price": 0.5375, "edge": 0.0428, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0587, "strength": 0.053, "confidence": 0.853, "kelly_raw": 0.0796, "kelly_applied": 0.0199, "kelly_pct": 2.0, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?", "end_date": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 218935.07199099995 }, { "market_id": "553866", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:26.227544+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.4614, "market_price": 0.4635, "edge": 0.0021, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1207, "strength": 0.386, "confidence": 0.698, "kelly_raw": 0.0046, "kelly_applied": 0.0012, "kelly_pct": 0.1, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?", "end_date": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 436424.19923500007 }, { "market_id": "556108", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:26.473040+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.1339, "market_price": 0.1445, "edge": 0.0106, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.1055, "strength": 0.72, "confidence": 0.736, "kelly_raw": 0.0736, "kelly_applied": 0.0184, "kelly_pct": 1.8, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? ", "end_date": "2026-07-01T04:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 5126.380352 }, { "market_id": "558934", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:26.722972+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.18, "market_price": 0.1595, "edge": -0.0205, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0781, "strength": 0.567, "confidence": 0.805, "kelly_raw": -0.1285, "kelly_applied": 0.0, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?", "end_date": "2026-07-20T00:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 566642.8406379998 }, { "market_id": "558935", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:26.963651+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.1472, "market_price": 0.1135, "edge": -0.0337, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0817, "strength": 0.676, "confidence": 0.796, "kelly_raw": -0.2969, "kelly_applied": 0.0, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?", "end_date": "2026-07-20T00:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 786955.6415919999 }, { "market_id": "558936", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T09:47:27.211994+00:00", "direction": "HOLD", "side": "NO", "P_YES": 0.1683, "market_price": 0.1595, "edge": -0.0088, "uncertainty_90ci": 0.0793, "strength": 0.606, "confidence": 0.802, "kelly_raw": -0.0551, "kelly_applied": 0.0, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "suggested_position": 0, "polyclaw_command": "HOLD", "model": "Chronos2Forecaster", "ensemble_size": null, "question": "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?", "end_date": "2026-07-20T00:00:00Z", "volume_24h": 847314.7300999993 } ], "model_id": "amazon/chronos-2", "model_type": "chronos2", "model_size": "base", "params_m": 14, "open_positions": [ { "market_id": "540817", "question": "New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?", "side": "NO", "size": 35, "entry_price": 0.51, "entry_time": "2026-05-30T10:18:15.990061+00:00", "peak_price": 0.505, "trailing_stop": 0.58075, "direction": "BUY_NO_WEAK", "kelly_raw": 0.1424, "kelly_applied": 0.0356, "pnl_pct": 0.0098, "pnl_dollars": 0.36, "current_value": 35.36, "last_price": 0.505, "last_checked": "2026-06-05T09:47:22.212997+00:00" }, { "market_id": "544095", "question": "Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 a", "side": "NO", "size": 42, "entry_price": 0.116, "entry_time": "2026-05-31T17:24:34.681509+00:00", "peak_price": 0.0595, "trailing_stop": 0.06842499999999999, "direction": "BUY_NO", "kelly_raw": 0.2585, "kelly_applied": 0.0457, "pnl_pct": 0.4871, "pnl_dollars": 2.68, "current_value": 44.68, "last_checked": "2026-06-05T09:47:22.212997+00:00", "last_price": 0.0595, "take_profit_triggered": true }, { "market_id": "540843", "question": "Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?", "side": "NO", "size": 38, "entry_price": 0.51, "entry_time": "2026-05-31T17:24:31.283218+00:00", "peak_price": 0.505, "trailing_stop": 0.58075, "direction": "BUY_NO_WEAK", "kelly_raw": 0.2365, "kelly_applied": 0.0418, "pnl_pct": 0.0098, "pnl_dollars": 0.39, "current_value": 38.39, "last_checked": "2026-06-05T09:47:22.212997+00:00", "last_price": 0.505 }, { "market_id": "540819", "question": "Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?", "side": "NO", "size": 29, "entry_price": 0.485, "entry_time": "2026-05-31T17:24:30.175613+00:00", "peak_price": 0.485, "trailing_stop": 0.55775, "direction": "BUY_NO_WEAK", "kelly_raw": 0.1784, "kelly_applied": 0.0315, "pnl_pct": 0.0, "pnl_dollars": 0.0, "current_value": 29.0, "last_checked": "2026-06-05T09:47:22.212997+00:00", "last_price": 0.485 } ], "capital": 856.0 }