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app.py
CHANGED
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"""
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Cross-Validation Visualizer
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============================
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Visualize time-series cross-validation strategies (expanding window and
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rolling/sliding window) with animated fold progression and per-fold
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accuracy metrics using a naive forecast.
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Part of ISA 444: Business Forecasting — Spring 2026, Miami University.
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Deployed to HuggingFace Spaces as fmegahed/cv-visualizer.
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"""
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import io
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import time
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import threading
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import gradio as gr
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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import matplotlib
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matplotlib.use("Agg")
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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import matplotlib.patches as mpatches
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from matplotlib.lines import Line2D
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Color palette
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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TEAL = "#84d6d3"
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RED = "#C3142D"
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GRAY = "#CCCCCC"
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DARK_GRAY = "#888888"
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WHITE = "#FFFFFF"
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Dataset generators
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _airline_passengers() -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Classic Box-Jenkins airline passengers (1949-1960, 144 obs)."""
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# Reproduce the well-known series with a multiplicative seasonal pattern.
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np.random.seed(42)
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n = 144
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t = np.arange(n)
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trend = 132 + 2.4 * t
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seasonal_period = 12
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seasonal = 40 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / seasonal_period)
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# Multiplicative-style growth in amplitude
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amplitude_growth = 1 + 0.006 * t
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y = trend * amplitude_growth + seasonal * amplitude_growth
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# Add a touch of noise
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y += np.random.normal(0, 5, n)
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dates = pd.date_range("1949-01-01", periods=n, freq="MS")
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return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
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def _ohio_employment() -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Synthetic Ohio monthly employment (2010-2024, 180 obs)."""
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np.random.seed(123)
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n = 180
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t = np.arange(n)
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trend = 5200 + 3.5 * t
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seasonal = 120 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / 12) + 60 * np.cos(2 * np.pi * t / 6)
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# Covid dip around index 120-130 (~ early 2020)
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dip = np.zeros(n)
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dip[120:132] = -np.array([200, 800, 1100, 900, 600, 400, 300, 200, 150, 100, 60, 30])
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noise = np.random.normal(0, 40, n)
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y = trend + seasonal + dip + noise
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dates = pd.date_range("2010-01-01", periods=n, freq="MS")
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return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
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def _simple_trend() -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Simple linear trend + noise (120 obs) for pedagogical clarity."""
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np.random.seed(7)
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n = 120
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t = np.arange(n)
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y = 0.5 * t + np.random.normal(0, 2, n)
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dates = pd.date_range("2015-01-01", periods=n, freq="MS")
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return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 2)})
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DATASETS = {
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"Airline Passengers": _airline_passengers,
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"Ohio Employment": _ohio_employment,
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"Simple Trend + Noise": _simple_trend,
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}
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Fold computation
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step, strategy, window_size=None):
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"""Return a list of fold dicts with train/test index ranges."""
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folds = []
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max_possible = n # safety upper bound
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if strategy == "Expanding Window":
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start = 0
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for k in range(max_possible):
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train_end = initial + k * step
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test_start = train_end
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test_end = test_start + horizon
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if test_end > n:
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break
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folds.append({
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"fold": k + 1,
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"train_start": start,
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"train_end": train_end,
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"test_start": test_start,
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"test_end": test_end,
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})
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else: # Rolling / Sliding Window
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ws = window_size if window_size is not None else initial
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for k in range(max_possible):
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train_start = k * step
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train_end = train_start + ws
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test_start = train_end
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test_end = test_start + horizon
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if test_end > n:
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break
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folds.append({
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"fold": k + 1,
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"train_start": train_start,
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"train_end": train_end,
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"test_start": test_start,
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"test_end": test_end,
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})
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return folds
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Naive forecast & metrics
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def naive_metrics(y_series, folds):
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"""Compute MAE, RMSE, MAPE per fold using a naive (last-value) forecast."""
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records = []
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y = y_series.values if hasattr(y_series, "values") else np.array(y_series)
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for f in folds:
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train_vals = y[f["train_start"]:f["train_end"]]
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test_vals = y[f["test_start"]:f["test_end"]]
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forecast = np.full_like(test_vals, train_vals[-1], dtype=float)
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errors = test_vals - forecast
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abs_errors = np.abs(errors)
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mae = np.mean(abs_errors)
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rmse = np.sqrt(np.mean(errors ** 2))
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# MAPE — guard against zeros
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nonzero = np.abs(test_vals) > 1e-8
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if nonzero.any():
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mape = np.mean(np.abs(errors[nonzero] / test_vals[nonzero])) * 100
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else:
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mape = np.nan
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records.append({
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"Fold": f["fold"],
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"Train Start": f["train_start"],
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"Train End": f["train_end"] - 1,
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"Test Start": f["test_start"],
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"Test End": f["test_end"] - 1,
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"Train Size": f["train_end"] - f["train_start"],
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"MAE": round(mae, 2),
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"RMSE": round(rmse, 2),
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"MAPE (%)": round(mape, 2) if not np.isnan(mape) else "N/A",
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})
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return pd.DataFrame(records)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Plotting
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _make_figure(df, folds, current_fold, show_all, strategy_label):
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"""Build the matplotlib figure with either one or two panels."""
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y = df["y"].values
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n = len(y)
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x = np.arange(n)
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if show_all:
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fig, ax_gantt = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 5), facecolor=WHITE)
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_draw_gantt(ax_gantt, folds, current_fold=None, n=n, highlight=False)
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ax_gantt.set_title(
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f"All {len(folds)} Folds — {strategy_label}",
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fontsize=14, fontweight="bold", pad=10,
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)
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fig.tight_layout(pad=2.0)
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return fig
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# Two-panel layout
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fig, (ax_ts, ax_gantt) = plt.subplots(
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2, 1, figsize=(12, 7.5),
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gridspec_kw={"height_ratios": [2, 1.2]},
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facecolor=WHITE,
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)
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fold_idx = max(0, min(current_fold - 1, len(folds) - 1))
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f = folds[fold_idx]
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K = len(folds)
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# --- Top panel: time series with CV split ---
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ax_ts.plot(x, y, color=GRAY, linewidth=1.2, zorder=1, label="Full series")
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# Training segment
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train_x = x[f["train_start"]:f["train_end"]]
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train_y = y[f["train_start"]:f["train_end"]]
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ax_ts.plot(train_x, train_y, color=TEAL, linewidth=2.4, zorder=3, label="Training")
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# Test segment
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test_x = x[f["test_start"]:f["test_end"]]
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test_y = y[f["test_start"]:f["test_end"]]
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ax_ts.plot(test_x, test_y, color=RED, linewidth=2.4, zorder=3, label="Test / Validation")
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# Vertical boundary lines
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ax_ts.axvline(f["train_end"] - 0.5, color=DARK_GRAY, linestyle="--", linewidth=1, zorder=2, alpha=0.7)
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if f["train_start"] > 0:
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ax_ts.axvline(f["train_start"] - 0.5, color=DARK_GRAY, linestyle=":", linewidth=1, zorder=2, alpha=0.5)
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ax_ts.set_title(
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f"Fold {f['fold']} of {K} — {strategy_label}",
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fontsize=14, fontweight="bold", pad=10,
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)
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ax_ts.set_xlabel("Time Index", fontsize=11)
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ax_ts.set_ylabel("y", fontsize=11)
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ax_ts.legend(loc="upper left", fontsize=9, framealpha=0.9)
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ax_ts.set_xlim(-1, n + 1)
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# --- Bottom panel: Gantt-style fold map ---
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_draw_gantt(ax_gantt, folds, current_fold=f["fold"], n=n, highlight=True)
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fig.tight_layout(pad=2.0)
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return fig
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def _draw_gantt(ax, folds, current_fold, n, highlight):
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"""Draw the Gantt-style fold map on the given axes."""
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K = len(folds)
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bar_height = 0.6
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highlight_height = 0.85
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for f in folds:
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k = f["fold"]
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is_current = highlight and (k == current_fold)
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h = highlight_height if is_current else bar_height
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lw = 1.8 if is_current else 0.5
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edge = "black" if is_current else "#666666"
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# Training bar
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ax.barh(
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k, f["train_end"] - f["train_start"], left=f["train_start"],
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height=h, color=TEAL, edgecolor=edge, linewidth=lw, zorder=3 if is_current else 2,
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)
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# Test bar
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ax.barh(
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k, f["test_end"] - f["test_start"], left=f["test_start"],
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height=h, color=RED, edgecolor=edge, linewidth=lw, zorder=3 if is_current else 2,
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)
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ax.set_xlabel("Time Index", fontsize=11)
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ax.set_ylabel("Fold", fontsize=11)
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ax.set_xlim(-1, n + 1)
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ax.set_ylim(0.2, K + 0.8)
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ax.set_yticks(range(1, K + 1))
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ax.invert_yaxis()
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# Legend
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handles = [
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mpatches.Patch(facecolor=TEAL, edgecolor="#333", label="Training"),
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mpatches.Patch(facecolor=RED, edgecolor="#333", label="Test"),
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]
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ax.legend(handles=handles, loc="upper right", fontsize=9, framealpha=0.9)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Summary text
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def build_summary(folds, strategy, initial, step, metrics_df):
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K = len(folds)
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if K == 0:
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return "**No valid folds.** Adjust the parameters so that at least one fold fits within the data."
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# Average metrics
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numeric_cols = ["MAE", "RMSE"]
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avgs = {c: metrics_df[c].mean() for c in numeric_cols}
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mape_vals = pd.to_numeric(metrics_df["MAPE (%)"], errors="coerce")
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avg_mape = mape_vals.mean()
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lines = [
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f"### Summary",
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f"- **Total folds:** {K}",
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f"- **Average MAE:** {avgs['MAE']:.2f}",
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f"- **Average RMSE:** {avgs['RMSE']:.2f}",
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f"- **Average MAPE:** {avg_mape:.2f}%" if not np.isnan(avg_mape) else "- **Average MAPE:** N/A",
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"",
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]
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if strategy == "Expanding Window":
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last_train = initial + (K - 1) * step
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lines.append(
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f"*Expanding window*: training set grows from **{initial}** to "
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f"**{last_train}** observations across {K} folds."
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)
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else:
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ws = folds[0]["train_end"] - folds[0]["train_start"]
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lines.append(
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f"*Rolling / sliding window*: fixed training size of **{ws}** "
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f"observations slides forward across {K} folds."
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)
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lines.append("")
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lines.append(
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"Forecasts use a **naive model** (last training value repeated over "
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"the horizon) to keep focus on the CV visualization concept."
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)
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return "\n".join(lines)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Main update callback
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def load_dataset(name, file_obj):
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"""Return a DataFrame given the selector value and optional upload."""
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if name == "Upload CSV" and file_obj is not None:
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raw = pd.read_csv(file_obj.name if hasattr(file_obj, "name") else file_obj)
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if "ds" not in raw.columns or "y" not in raw.columns:
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raise gr.Error("Uploaded CSV must contain columns named 'ds' and 'y'.")
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return raw[["ds", "y"]].copy()
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if name in DATASETS:
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return DATASETS[name]()
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# Fallback
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return DATASETS["Simple Trend + Noise"]()
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def update_total_folds(dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon, step_size, window_size):
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"""Return the max number of folds so we can update the fold slider range."""
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try:
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df = load_dataset(dataset_name, file_obj)
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except Exception:
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return gr.update(maximum=1, value=1)
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n = len(df)
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folds = compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step_size, strategy, window_size)
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K = max(len(folds), 1)
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return gr.update(maximum=K, value=min(1, K))
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def run_visualizer(dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon, step_size, window_size, current_fold, show_all):
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"""Core callback — returns (figure, metrics_df, summary_md)."""
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try:
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df = load_dataset(dataset_name, file_obj)
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except gr.Error:
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raise
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except Exception as exc:
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raise gr.Error(f"Could not load data: {exc}")
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n = len(df)
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folds = compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step_size, strategy, window_size)
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K = len(folds)
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if K == 0:
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fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 4), facecolor=WHITE)
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ax.text(0.5, 0.5, "No valid folds — adjust parameters.",
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ha="center", va="center", fontsize=14, transform=ax.transAxes)
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ax.axis("off")
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empty_df = pd.DataFrame(columns=[
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"Fold", "Train Start", "Train End", "Test Start", "Test End",
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"Train Size", "MAE", "RMSE", "MAPE (%)"
|
| 359 |
-
])
|
| 360 |
-
summary = "**No valid folds.** Reduce `initial` + `horizon` or increase data length."
|
| 361 |
-
return fig, empty_df, summary
|
| 362 |
-
|
| 363 |
-
strategy_label = strategy
|
| 364 |
-
fig = _make_figure(df, folds, current_fold, show_all, strategy_label)
|
| 365 |
-
metrics_df = naive_metrics(df["y"], folds)
|
| 366 |
-
|
| 367 |
-
# Append average row
|
| 368 |
-
avg_row = {
|
| 369 |
-
"Fold": "Avg",
|
| 370 |
-
"Train Start": "",
|
| 371 |
-
"Train End": "",
|
| 372 |
-
"Test Start": "",
|
| 373 |
-
"Test End": "",
|
| 374 |
-
"Train Size": "",
|
| 375 |
-
"MAE": round(metrics_df["MAE"].mean(), 2),
|
| 376 |
-
"RMSE": round(metrics_df["RMSE"].mean(), 2),
|
| 377 |
-
}
|
| 378 |
-
mape_vals = pd.to_numeric(metrics_df["MAPE (%)"], errors="coerce")
|
| 379 |
-
avg_row["MAPE (%)"] = round(mape_vals.mean(), 2) if not mape_vals.isna().all() else "N/A"
|
| 380 |
-
avg_df = pd.concat([metrics_df, pd.DataFrame([avg_row])], ignore_index=True)
|
| 381 |
-
|
| 382 |
-
summary = build_summary(folds, strategy, initial, step_size, metrics_df)
|
| 383 |
-
plt.close("all")
|
| 384 |
-
return fig, avg_df, summary
|
| 385 |
-
|
| 386 |
-
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 387 |
-
# Gradio UI
|
| 388 |
-
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 389 |
-
|
| 390 |
-
def build_app():
|
| 391 |
-
theme = gr.themes.Soft(
|
| 392 |
-
primary_hue=gr.themes.Color(
|
| 393 |
-
c50="#eafaf9", c100="#d4f5f3", c200="#aaecea",
|
| 394 |
-
c300="#84d6d3", c400="#5ec4c0", c500="#3eaea9",
|
| 395 |
-
c600="#2e938e", c700="#237873", c800="#1a5d59",
|
| 396 |
-
c900="#12423f", c950="#0a2725",
|
| 397 |
-
),
|
| 398 |
-
secondary_hue=gr.themes.Color(
|
| 399 |
-
c50="#fef2f3", c100="#fde6e8", c200="#fbd0d5",
|
| 400 |
-
c300="#f7a4ae", c400="#f17182", c500="#C3142D",
|
| 401 |
-
c600="#b01228", c700="#8B0E1E", c800="#6e0b18",
|
| 402 |
-
c900="#5c0d17", c950="#33040a",
|
| 403 |
-
),
|
| 404 |
-
font=[gr.themes.GoogleFont("Inter"), "ui-sans-serif", "system-ui", "sans-serif"],
|
| 405 |
-
)
|
| 406 |
-
|
| 407 |
-
with gr.Blocks(
|
| 408 |
-
title="Cross-Validation Visualizer v1.0",
|
| 409 |
-
theme=theme,
|
| 410 |
-
css="""
|
| 411 |
-
.gradio-container { max-width: 1280px !important; margin: auto; }
|
| 412 |
-
footer { display: none !important; }
|
| 413 |
-
.gr-button-primary { background: #C3142D !important; border: none !important; }
|
| 414 |
-
.gr-button-primary:hover { background: #8B0E1E !important; }
|
| 415 |
-
.gr-button-secondary { border-color: #84d6d3 !important; color: #84d6d3 !important; }
|
| 416 |
-
.gr-button-secondary:hover { background: #84d6d3 !important; color: white !important; }
|
| 417 |
-
.gr-input:focus { border-color: #84d6d3 !important; box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(132,214,211,0.2) !important; }
|
| 418 |
-
""",
|
| 419 |
-
) as demo:
|
| 420 |
-
gr.HTML("""
|
| 421 |
-
<div style="display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 16px; padding: 16px 24px;
|
| 422 |
-
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #C3142D 0%, #8B0E1E 100%);
|
| 423 |
-
border-radius: 12px; margin-bottom: 16px; box-shadow: 0 4px 12px rgba(0,0,0,0.15);">
|
| 424 |
-
<img src="https://miamioh.edu/miami-brand/_files/images/system/logo-usage/minimum-size/beveled-m-min-size.png"
|
| 425 |
-
alt="Miami University" style="height: 56px;
|
| 426 |
-
<div>
|
| 427 |
-
<h1 style="margin: 0; color: white; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: -0.5px;">
|
| 428 |
-
Cross-Validation Visualizer v1.0
|
| 429 |
-
</h1>
|
| 430 |
-
<p style="margin: 4px 0 0; color: rgba(255,255,255,0.85); font-size: 14px;">
|
| 431 |
-
ISA 444: Business Forecasting · Farmer School of Business · Miami University
|
| 432 |
-
</p>
|
| 433 |
-
</div>
|
| 434 |
-
</div>
|
| 435 |
-
""")
|
| 436 |
-
|
| 437 |
-
gr.HTML("""
|
| 438 |
-
<div style="background: #f8f9fa; border-left: 4px solid #84d6d3; padding: 12px 16px;
|
| 439 |
-
border-radius: 0 8px 8px 0; margin-bottom: 16px; font-size: 14px; color: #585E60;">
|
| 440 |
-
Visualize time-series cross-validation strategies (expanding window and rolling/sliding window)
|
| 441 |
-
with animated fold progression and per-fold accuracy metrics using a naive forecast.
|
| 442 |
-
Understand how forecast accuracy is evaluated across folds.
|
| 443 |
-
</div>
|
| 444 |
-
""")
|
| 445 |
-
|
| 446 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 447 |
-
# ---- Left column: controls ----
|
| 448 |
-
with gr.Column(scale=1, min_width=300):
|
| 449 |
-
gr.Markdown("### Data")
|
| 450 |
-
dataset_dd = gr.Dropdown(
|
| 451 |
-
choices=["Airline Passengers", "Ohio Employment",
|
| 452 |
-
"Simple Trend + Noise", "Upload CSV"],
|
| 453 |
-
value="Simple Trend + Noise",
|
| 454 |
-
label="Dataset",
|
| 455 |
-
)
|
| 456 |
-
csv_upload = gr.File(
|
| 457 |
-
label="Upload CSV (columns: ds, y)",
|
| 458 |
-
file_types=[".csv"],
|
| 459 |
-
visible=False,
|
| 460 |
-
)
|
| 461 |
-
|
| 462 |
-
gr.Markdown("### CV Strategy")
|
| 463 |
-
strategy_radio = gr.Radio(
|
| 464 |
-
choices=["Expanding Window", "Rolling/Sliding Window"],
|
| 465 |
-
value="Expanding Window",
|
| 466 |
-
label="Strategy",
|
| 467 |
-
)
|
| 468 |
-
|
| 469 |
-
gr.Markdown("### Parameters")
|
| 470 |
-
initial_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 471 |
-
minimum=12, maximum=120, value=60, step=1,
|
| 472 |
-
label="initial (initial training size)",
|
| 473 |
-
)
|
| 474 |
-
horizon_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 475 |
-
minimum=1, maximum=24, value=12, step=1,
|
| 476 |
-
label="horizon (forecast horizon)",
|
| 477 |
-
)
|
| 478 |
-
step_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 479 |
-
minimum=1, maximum=12, value=1, step=1,
|
| 480 |
-
label="step (step size between folds)",
|
| 481 |
-
)
|
| 482 |
-
window_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 483 |
-
minimum=12, maximum=120, value=60, step=1,
|
| 484 |
-
label="window_size (rolling window only)",
|
| 485 |
-
visible=False,
|
| 486 |
-
)
|
| 487 |
-
|
| 488 |
-
gr.Markdown("### Animation Controls")
|
| 489 |
-
fold_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 490 |
-
minimum=1, maximum=1, value=1, step=1,
|
| 491 |
-
label="Current Fold",
|
| 492 |
-
)
|
| 493 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 494 |
-
play_btn = gr.Button("Play Animation", variant="primary")
|
| 495 |
-
stop_btn = gr.Button("Stop", variant="stop")
|
| 496 |
-
show_all_cb = gr.Checkbox(label="Show All Folds", value=False)
|
| 497 |
-
|
| 498 |
-
# ---- Right column: outputs ----
|
| 499 |
-
with gr.Column(scale=2, min_width=500):
|
| 500 |
-
plot_output = gr.Plot(label="Visualization")
|
| 501 |
-
metrics_output = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 502 |
-
label="Per-Fold Metrics (Naive Forecast)",
|
| 503 |
-
interactive=False,
|
| 504 |
-
wrap=True,
|
| 505 |
-
)
|
| 506 |
-
summary_output = gr.Markdown(label="Summary")
|
| 507 |
-
|
| 508 |
-
# ---- Visibility toggles ----
|
| 509 |
-
def toggle_csv_upload(name):
|
| 510 |
-
return gr.update(visible=(name == "Upload CSV"))
|
| 511 |
-
|
| 512 |
-
dataset_dd.change(toggle_csv_upload, inputs=[dataset_dd], outputs=[csv_upload])
|
| 513 |
-
|
| 514 |
-
def toggle_window_slider(strategy):
|
| 515 |
-
return gr.update(visible=(strategy == "Rolling/Sliding Window"))
|
| 516 |
-
|
| 517 |
-
strategy_radio.change(toggle_window_slider, inputs=[strategy_radio], outputs=[window_slider])
|
| 518 |
-
|
| 519 |
-
# ---- Gather all control inputs ----
|
| 520 |
-
all_inputs = [
|
| 521 |
-
dataset_dd, csv_upload, strategy_radio,
|
| 522 |
-
initial_slider, horizon_slider, step_slider,
|
| 523 |
-
window_slider, fold_slider, show_all_cb,
|
| 524 |
-
]
|
| 525 |
-
all_outputs = [plot_output, metrics_output, summary_output]
|
| 526 |
-
|
| 527 |
-
# Helper to also refresh the fold slider range
|
| 528 |
-
fold_range_inputs = [
|
| 529 |
-
dataset_dd, csv_upload, strategy_radio,
|
| 530 |
-
initial_slider, horizon_slider, step_slider, window_slider,
|
| 531 |
-
]
|
| 532 |
-
|
| 533 |
-
def refresh_and_run(dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon,
|
| 534 |
-
step_size, window_size, current_fold, show_all):
|
| 535 |
-
"""Update fold slider range, clamp current_fold, then run."""
|
| 536 |
-
try:
|
| 537 |
-
df = load_dataset(dataset_name, file_obj)
|
| 538 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 539 |
-
df = DATASETS["Simple Trend + Noise"]()
|
| 540 |
-
n = len(df)
|
| 541 |
-
folds = compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step_size, strategy, window_size)
|
| 542 |
-
K = max(len(folds), 1)
|
| 543 |
-
current_fold = max(1, min(current_fold, K))
|
| 544 |
-
fig, metrics, summary = run_visualizer(
|
| 545 |
-
dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon,
|
| 546 |
-
step_size, window_size, current_fold, show_all,
|
| 547 |
-
)
|
| 548 |
-
return gr.update(maximum=K, value=current_fold), fig, metrics, summary
|
| 549 |
-
|
| 550 |
-
combined_outputs = [fold_slider] + all_outputs
|
| 551 |
-
|
| 552 |
-
# Trigger on any parameter change
|
| 553 |
-
for ctrl in [dataset_dd, csv_upload, strategy_radio, initial_slider,
|
| 554 |
-
horizon_slider, step_slider, window_slider, show_all_cb]:
|
| 555 |
-
ctrl.change(
|
| 556 |
-
refresh_and_run,
|
| 557 |
-
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 558 |
-
outputs=combined_outputs,
|
| 559 |
-
)
|
| 560 |
-
|
| 561 |
-
# Fold slider change (just re-render, no range update needed)
|
| 562 |
-
fold_slider.release(
|
| 563 |
-
run_visualizer,
|
| 564 |
-
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 565 |
-
outputs=all_outputs,
|
| 566 |
-
)
|
| 567 |
-
|
| 568 |
-
# ---- Animation via a background thread ----
|
| 569 |
-
# We use a gr.State to hold the "playing" flag
|
| 570 |
-
animation_state = gr.State({"playing": False})
|
| 571 |
-
|
| 572 |
-
def start_animation(state, dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial,
|
| 573 |
-
horizon, step_size, window_size, current_fold, show_all):
|
| 574 |
-
state["playing"] = True
|
| 575 |
-
try:
|
| 576 |
-
df = load_dataset(dataset_name, file_obj)
|
| 577 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 578 |
-
df = DATASETS["Simple Trend + Noise"]()
|
| 579 |
-
n = len(df)
|
| 580 |
-
folds = compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step_size, strategy, window_size)
|
| 581 |
-
K = max(len(folds), 1)
|
| 582 |
-
|
| 583 |
-
for k in range(1, K + 1):
|
| 584 |
-
if not state.get("playing", False):
|
| 585 |
-
break
|
| 586 |
-
fig, metrics, summary = run_visualizer(
|
| 587 |
-
dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon,
|
| 588 |
-
step_size, window_size, k, False,
|
| 589 |
-
)
|
| 590 |
-
yield state, gr.update(maximum=K, value=k), fig, metrics, summary
|
| 591 |
-
time.sleep(1.0)
|
| 592 |
-
state["playing"] = False
|
| 593 |
-
yield state, gr.update(), fig, metrics, summary
|
| 594 |
-
|
| 595 |
-
def stop_animation(state):
|
| 596 |
-
state["playing"] = False
|
| 597 |
-
return state
|
| 598 |
-
|
| 599 |
-
play_btn.click(
|
| 600 |
-
start_animation,
|
| 601 |
-
inputs=[animation_state] + all_inputs,
|
| 602 |
-
outputs=[animation_state, fold_slider] + all_outputs,
|
| 603 |
-
)
|
| 604 |
-
stop_btn.click(stop_animation, inputs=[animation_state], outputs=[animation_state])
|
| 605 |
-
|
| 606 |
-
# ---- Initial render on load ----
|
| 607 |
-
demo.load(
|
| 608 |
-
refresh_and_run,
|
| 609 |
-
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 610 |
-
outputs=combined_outputs,
|
| 611 |
-
)
|
| 612 |
-
|
| 613 |
-
gr.HTML("""
|
| 614 |
-
<div style="margin-top: 24px; padding: 16px; background: #f8f9fa; border-radius: 8px;
|
| 615 |
-
text-align: center; font-size: 13px; color: #585E60; border-top: 2px solid #84d6d3;">
|
| 616 |
-
<div style="margin-bottom: 4px;">
|
| 617 |
-
<strong style="color: #C3142D;">Developed by</strong>
|
| 618 |
-
<a href="https://miamioh.edu/fsb/directory/?up=/directory/megahefm"
|
| 619 |
-
style="color: #84d6d3; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600;">
|
| 620 |
-
Fadel M. Megahed
|
| 621 |
-
</a>
|
| 622 |
-
· Gloss Professor of Analytics · Miami University
|
| 623 |
-
</div>
|
| 624 |
-
<div style="font-size: 12px; color: #888;">
|
| 625 |
-
Version 1.0.0 · Spring 2026 ·
|
| 626 |
-
<a href="https://github.com/fmegahed" style="color: #84d6d3; text-decoration: none;">GitHub</a> ·
|
| 627 |
-
<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/fmegahed/" style="color: #84d6d3; text-decoration: none;">LinkedIn</a>
|
| 628 |
-
</div>
|
| 629 |
-
</div>
|
| 630 |
-
""")
|
| 631 |
-
|
| 632 |
-
return demo
|
| 633 |
-
|
| 634 |
-
|
| 635 |
-
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 636 |
-
app = build_app()
|
| 637 |
-
app.launch()
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
"""
|
| 2 |
+
Cross-Validation Visualizer
|
| 3 |
+
============================
|
| 4 |
+
Visualize time-series cross-validation strategies (expanding window and
|
| 5 |
+
rolling/sliding window) with animated fold progression and per-fold
|
| 6 |
+
accuracy metrics using a naive forecast.
|
| 7 |
+
|
| 8 |
+
Part of ISA 444: Business Forecasting — Spring 2026, Miami University.
|
| 9 |
+
Deployed to HuggingFace Spaces as fmegahed/cv-visualizer.
|
| 10 |
+
"""
|
| 11 |
+
|
| 12 |
+
import io
|
| 13 |
+
import time
|
| 14 |
+
import threading
|
| 15 |
+
|
| 16 |
+
import gradio as gr
|
| 17 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 18 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 19 |
+
import matplotlib
|
| 20 |
+
matplotlib.use("Agg")
|
| 21 |
+
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 22 |
+
import matplotlib.patches as mpatches
|
| 23 |
+
from matplotlib.lines import Line2D
|
| 24 |
+
|
| 25 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 26 |
+
# Color palette
|
| 27 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 28 |
+
TEAL = "#84d6d3"
|
| 29 |
+
RED = "#C3142D"
|
| 30 |
+
GRAY = "#CCCCCC"
|
| 31 |
+
DARK_GRAY = "#888888"
|
| 32 |
+
WHITE = "#FFFFFF"
|
| 33 |
+
|
| 34 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 35 |
+
# Dataset generators
|
| 36 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
def _airline_passengers() -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 39 |
+
"""Classic Box-Jenkins airline passengers (1949-1960, 144 obs)."""
|
| 40 |
+
# Reproduce the well-known series with a multiplicative seasonal pattern.
|
| 41 |
+
np.random.seed(42)
|
| 42 |
+
n = 144
|
| 43 |
+
t = np.arange(n)
|
| 44 |
+
trend = 132 + 2.4 * t
|
| 45 |
+
seasonal_period = 12
|
| 46 |
+
seasonal = 40 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / seasonal_period)
|
| 47 |
+
# Multiplicative-style growth in amplitude
|
| 48 |
+
amplitude_growth = 1 + 0.006 * t
|
| 49 |
+
y = trend * amplitude_growth + seasonal * amplitude_growth
|
| 50 |
+
# Add a touch of noise
|
| 51 |
+
y += np.random.normal(0, 5, n)
|
| 52 |
+
dates = pd.date_range("1949-01-01", periods=n, freq="MS")
|
| 53 |
+
return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
|
| 54 |
+
|
| 55 |
+
|
| 56 |
+
def _ohio_employment() -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 57 |
+
"""Synthetic Ohio monthly employment (2010-2024, 180 obs)."""
|
| 58 |
+
np.random.seed(123)
|
| 59 |
+
n = 180
|
| 60 |
+
t = np.arange(n)
|
| 61 |
+
trend = 5200 + 3.5 * t
|
| 62 |
+
seasonal = 120 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / 12) + 60 * np.cos(2 * np.pi * t / 6)
|
| 63 |
+
# Covid dip around index 120-130 (~ early 2020)
|
| 64 |
+
dip = np.zeros(n)
|
| 65 |
+
dip[120:132] = -np.array([200, 800, 1100, 900, 600, 400, 300, 200, 150, 100, 60, 30])
|
| 66 |
+
noise = np.random.normal(0, 40, n)
|
| 67 |
+
y = trend + seasonal + dip + noise
|
| 68 |
+
dates = pd.date_range("2010-01-01", periods=n, freq="MS")
|
| 69 |
+
return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
|
| 70 |
+
|
| 71 |
+
|
| 72 |
+
def _simple_trend() -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 73 |
+
"""Simple linear trend + noise (120 obs) for pedagogical clarity."""
|
| 74 |
+
np.random.seed(7)
|
| 75 |
+
n = 120
|
| 76 |
+
t = np.arange(n)
|
| 77 |
+
y = 0.5 * t + np.random.normal(0, 2, n)
|
| 78 |
+
dates = pd.date_range("2015-01-01", periods=n, freq="MS")
|
| 79 |
+
return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 2)})
|
| 80 |
+
|
| 81 |
+
|
| 82 |
+
DATASETS = {
|
| 83 |
+
"Airline Passengers": _airline_passengers,
|
| 84 |
+
"Ohio Employment": _ohio_employment,
|
| 85 |
+
"Simple Trend + Noise": _simple_trend,
|
| 86 |
+
}
|
| 87 |
+
|
| 88 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 89 |
+
# Fold computation
|
| 90 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 91 |
+
|
| 92 |
+
def compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step, strategy, window_size=None):
|
| 93 |
+
"""Return a list of fold dicts with train/test index ranges."""
|
| 94 |
+
folds = []
|
| 95 |
+
max_possible = n # safety upper bound
|
| 96 |
+
if strategy == "Expanding Window":
|
| 97 |
+
start = 0
|
| 98 |
+
for k in range(max_possible):
|
| 99 |
+
train_end = initial + k * step
|
| 100 |
+
test_start = train_end
|
| 101 |
+
test_end = test_start + horizon
|
| 102 |
+
if test_end > n:
|
| 103 |
+
break
|
| 104 |
+
folds.append({
|
| 105 |
+
"fold": k + 1,
|
| 106 |
+
"train_start": start,
|
| 107 |
+
"train_end": train_end,
|
| 108 |
+
"test_start": test_start,
|
| 109 |
+
"test_end": test_end,
|
| 110 |
+
})
|
| 111 |
+
else: # Rolling / Sliding Window
|
| 112 |
+
ws = window_size if window_size is not None else initial
|
| 113 |
+
for k in range(max_possible):
|
| 114 |
+
train_start = k * step
|
| 115 |
+
train_end = train_start + ws
|
| 116 |
+
test_start = train_end
|
| 117 |
+
test_end = test_start + horizon
|
| 118 |
+
if test_end > n:
|
| 119 |
+
break
|
| 120 |
+
folds.append({
|
| 121 |
+
"fold": k + 1,
|
| 122 |
+
"train_start": train_start,
|
| 123 |
+
"train_end": train_end,
|
| 124 |
+
"test_start": test_start,
|
| 125 |
+
"test_end": test_end,
|
| 126 |
+
})
|
| 127 |
+
return folds
|
| 128 |
+
|
| 129 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 130 |
+
# Naive forecast & metrics
|
| 131 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 132 |
+
|
| 133 |
+
def naive_metrics(y_series, folds):
|
| 134 |
+
"""Compute MAE, RMSE, MAPE per fold using a naive (last-value) forecast."""
|
| 135 |
+
records = []
|
| 136 |
+
y = y_series.values if hasattr(y_series, "values") else np.array(y_series)
|
| 137 |
+
for f in folds:
|
| 138 |
+
train_vals = y[f["train_start"]:f["train_end"]]
|
| 139 |
+
test_vals = y[f["test_start"]:f["test_end"]]
|
| 140 |
+
forecast = np.full_like(test_vals, train_vals[-1], dtype=float)
|
| 141 |
+
errors = test_vals - forecast
|
| 142 |
+
abs_errors = np.abs(errors)
|
| 143 |
+
mae = np.mean(abs_errors)
|
| 144 |
+
rmse = np.sqrt(np.mean(errors ** 2))
|
| 145 |
+
# MAPE — guard against zeros
|
| 146 |
+
nonzero = np.abs(test_vals) > 1e-8
|
| 147 |
+
if nonzero.any():
|
| 148 |
+
mape = np.mean(np.abs(errors[nonzero] / test_vals[nonzero])) * 100
|
| 149 |
+
else:
|
| 150 |
+
mape = np.nan
|
| 151 |
+
records.append({
|
| 152 |
+
"Fold": f["fold"],
|
| 153 |
+
"Train Start": f["train_start"],
|
| 154 |
+
"Train End": f["train_end"] - 1,
|
| 155 |
+
"Test Start": f["test_start"],
|
| 156 |
+
"Test End": f["test_end"] - 1,
|
| 157 |
+
"Train Size": f["train_end"] - f["train_start"],
|
| 158 |
+
"MAE": round(mae, 2),
|
| 159 |
+
"RMSE": round(rmse, 2),
|
| 160 |
+
"MAPE (%)": round(mape, 2) if not np.isnan(mape) else "N/A",
|
| 161 |
+
})
|
| 162 |
+
return pd.DataFrame(records)
|
| 163 |
+
|
| 164 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 165 |
+
# Plotting
|
| 166 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 167 |
+
|
| 168 |
+
def _make_figure(df, folds, current_fold, show_all, strategy_label):
|
| 169 |
+
"""Build the matplotlib figure with either one or two panels."""
|
| 170 |
+
y = df["y"].values
|
| 171 |
+
n = len(y)
|
| 172 |
+
x = np.arange(n)
|
| 173 |
+
|
| 174 |
+
if show_all:
|
| 175 |
+
fig, ax_gantt = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 5), facecolor=WHITE)
|
| 176 |
+
_draw_gantt(ax_gantt, folds, current_fold=None, n=n, highlight=False)
|
| 177 |
+
ax_gantt.set_title(
|
| 178 |
+
f"All {len(folds)} Folds — {strategy_label}",
|
| 179 |
+
fontsize=14, fontweight="bold", pad=10,
|
| 180 |
+
)
|
| 181 |
+
fig.tight_layout(pad=2.0)
|
| 182 |
+
return fig
|
| 183 |
+
|
| 184 |
+
# Two-panel layout
|
| 185 |
+
fig, (ax_ts, ax_gantt) = plt.subplots(
|
| 186 |
+
2, 1, figsize=(12, 7.5),
|
| 187 |
+
gridspec_kw={"height_ratios": [2, 1.2]},
|
| 188 |
+
facecolor=WHITE,
|
| 189 |
+
)
|
| 190 |
+
|
| 191 |
+
fold_idx = max(0, min(current_fold - 1, len(folds) - 1))
|
| 192 |
+
f = folds[fold_idx]
|
| 193 |
+
K = len(folds)
|
| 194 |
+
|
| 195 |
+
# --- Top panel: time series with CV split ---
|
| 196 |
+
ax_ts.plot(x, y, color=GRAY, linewidth=1.2, zorder=1, label="Full series")
|
| 197 |
+
|
| 198 |
+
# Training segment
|
| 199 |
+
train_x = x[f["train_start"]:f["train_end"]]
|
| 200 |
+
train_y = y[f["train_start"]:f["train_end"]]
|
| 201 |
+
ax_ts.plot(train_x, train_y, color=TEAL, linewidth=2.4, zorder=3, label="Training")
|
| 202 |
+
|
| 203 |
+
# Test segment
|
| 204 |
+
test_x = x[f["test_start"]:f["test_end"]]
|
| 205 |
+
test_y = y[f["test_start"]:f["test_end"]]
|
| 206 |
+
ax_ts.plot(test_x, test_y, color=RED, linewidth=2.4, zorder=3, label="Test / Validation")
|
| 207 |
+
|
| 208 |
+
# Vertical boundary lines
|
| 209 |
+
ax_ts.axvline(f["train_end"] - 0.5, color=DARK_GRAY, linestyle="--", linewidth=1, zorder=2, alpha=0.7)
|
| 210 |
+
if f["train_start"] > 0:
|
| 211 |
+
ax_ts.axvline(f["train_start"] - 0.5, color=DARK_GRAY, linestyle=":", linewidth=1, zorder=2, alpha=0.5)
|
| 212 |
+
|
| 213 |
+
ax_ts.set_title(
|
| 214 |
+
f"Fold {f['fold']} of {K} — {strategy_label}",
|
| 215 |
+
fontsize=14, fontweight="bold", pad=10,
|
| 216 |
+
)
|
| 217 |
+
ax_ts.set_xlabel("Time Index", fontsize=11)
|
| 218 |
+
ax_ts.set_ylabel("y", fontsize=11)
|
| 219 |
+
ax_ts.legend(loc="upper left", fontsize=9, framealpha=0.9)
|
| 220 |
+
ax_ts.set_xlim(-1, n + 1)
|
| 221 |
+
|
| 222 |
+
# --- Bottom panel: Gantt-style fold map ---
|
| 223 |
+
_draw_gantt(ax_gantt, folds, current_fold=f["fold"], n=n, highlight=True)
|
| 224 |
+
|
| 225 |
+
fig.tight_layout(pad=2.0)
|
| 226 |
+
return fig
|
| 227 |
+
|
| 228 |
+
|
| 229 |
+
def _draw_gantt(ax, folds, current_fold, n, highlight):
|
| 230 |
+
"""Draw the Gantt-style fold map on the given axes."""
|
| 231 |
+
K = len(folds)
|
| 232 |
+
bar_height = 0.6
|
| 233 |
+
highlight_height = 0.85
|
| 234 |
+
|
| 235 |
+
for f in folds:
|
| 236 |
+
k = f["fold"]
|
| 237 |
+
is_current = highlight and (k == current_fold)
|
| 238 |
+
h = highlight_height if is_current else bar_height
|
| 239 |
+
lw = 1.8 if is_current else 0.5
|
| 240 |
+
edge = "black" if is_current else "#666666"
|
| 241 |
+
|
| 242 |
+
# Training bar
|
| 243 |
+
ax.barh(
|
| 244 |
+
k, f["train_end"] - f["train_start"], left=f["train_start"],
|
| 245 |
+
height=h, color=TEAL, edgecolor=edge, linewidth=lw, zorder=3 if is_current else 2,
|
| 246 |
+
)
|
| 247 |
+
# Test bar
|
| 248 |
+
ax.barh(
|
| 249 |
+
k, f["test_end"] - f["test_start"], left=f["test_start"],
|
| 250 |
+
height=h, color=RED, edgecolor=edge, linewidth=lw, zorder=3 if is_current else 2,
|
| 251 |
+
)
|
| 252 |
+
|
| 253 |
+
ax.set_xlabel("Time Index", fontsize=11)
|
| 254 |
+
ax.set_ylabel("Fold", fontsize=11)
|
| 255 |
+
ax.set_xlim(-1, n + 1)
|
| 256 |
+
ax.set_ylim(0.2, K + 0.8)
|
| 257 |
+
ax.set_yticks(range(1, K + 1))
|
| 258 |
+
ax.invert_yaxis()
|
| 259 |
+
|
| 260 |
+
# Legend
|
| 261 |
+
handles = [
|
| 262 |
+
mpatches.Patch(facecolor=TEAL, edgecolor="#333", label="Training"),
|
| 263 |
+
mpatches.Patch(facecolor=RED, edgecolor="#333", label="Test"),
|
| 264 |
+
]
|
| 265 |
+
ax.legend(handles=handles, loc="upper right", fontsize=9, framealpha=0.9)
|
| 266 |
+
|
| 267 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 268 |
+
# Summary text
|
| 269 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 270 |
+
|
| 271 |
+
def build_summary(folds, strategy, initial, step, metrics_df):
|
| 272 |
+
K = len(folds)
|
| 273 |
+
if K == 0:
|
| 274 |
+
return "**No valid folds.** Adjust the parameters so that at least one fold fits within the data."
|
| 275 |
+
|
| 276 |
+
# Average metrics
|
| 277 |
+
numeric_cols = ["MAE", "RMSE"]
|
| 278 |
+
avgs = {c: metrics_df[c].mean() for c in numeric_cols}
|
| 279 |
+
mape_vals = pd.to_numeric(metrics_df["MAPE (%)"], errors="coerce")
|
| 280 |
+
avg_mape = mape_vals.mean()
|
| 281 |
+
|
| 282 |
+
lines = [
|
| 283 |
+
f"### Summary",
|
| 284 |
+
f"- **Total folds:** {K}",
|
| 285 |
+
f"- **Average MAE:** {avgs['MAE']:.2f}",
|
| 286 |
+
f"- **Average RMSE:** {avgs['RMSE']:.2f}",
|
| 287 |
+
f"- **Average MAPE:** {avg_mape:.2f}%" if not np.isnan(avg_mape) else "- **Average MAPE:** N/A",
|
| 288 |
+
"",
|
| 289 |
+
]
|
| 290 |
+
if strategy == "Expanding Window":
|
| 291 |
+
last_train = initial + (K - 1) * step
|
| 292 |
+
lines.append(
|
| 293 |
+
f"*Expanding window*: training set grows from **{initial}** to "
|
| 294 |
+
f"**{last_train}** observations across {K} folds."
|
| 295 |
+
)
|
| 296 |
+
else:
|
| 297 |
+
ws = folds[0]["train_end"] - folds[0]["train_start"]
|
| 298 |
+
lines.append(
|
| 299 |
+
f"*Rolling / sliding window*: fixed training size of **{ws}** "
|
| 300 |
+
f"observations slides forward across {K} folds."
|
| 301 |
+
)
|
| 302 |
+
lines.append("")
|
| 303 |
+
lines.append(
|
| 304 |
+
"Forecasts use a **naive model** (last training value repeated over "
|
| 305 |
+
"the horizon) to keep focus on the CV visualization concept."
|
| 306 |
+
)
|
| 307 |
+
return "\n".join(lines)
|
| 308 |
+
|
| 309 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 310 |
+
# Main update callback
|
| 311 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 312 |
+
|
| 313 |
+
def load_dataset(name, file_obj):
|
| 314 |
+
"""Return a DataFrame given the selector value and optional upload."""
|
| 315 |
+
if name == "Upload CSV" and file_obj is not None:
|
| 316 |
+
raw = pd.read_csv(file_obj.name if hasattr(file_obj, "name") else file_obj)
|
| 317 |
+
if "ds" not in raw.columns or "y" not in raw.columns:
|
| 318 |
+
raise gr.Error("Uploaded CSV must contain columns named 'ds' and 'y'.")
|
| 319 |
+
return raw[["ds", "y"]].copy()
|
| 320 |
+
if name in DATASETS:
|
| 321 |
+
return DATASETS[name]()
|
| 322 |
+
# Fallback
|
| 323 |
+
return DATASETS["Simple Trend + Noise"]()
|
| 324 |
+
|
| 325 |
+
|
| 326 |
+
def update_total_folds(dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon, step_size, window_size):
|
| 327 |
+
"""Return the max number of folds so we can update the fold slider range."""
|
| 328 |
+
try:
|
| 329 |
+
df = load_dataset(dataset_name, file_obj)
|
| 330 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 331 |
+
return gr.update(maximum=1, value=1)
|
| 332 |
+
n = len(df)
|
| 333 |
+
folds = compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step_size, strategy, window_size)
|
| 334 |
+
K = max(len(folds), 1)
|
| 335 |
+
return gr.update(maximum=K, value=min(1, K))
|
| 336 |
+
|
| 337 |
+
|
| 338 |
+
def run_visualizer(dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon, step_size, window_size, current_fold, show_all):
|
| 339 |
+
"""Core callback — returns (figure, metrics_df, summary_md)."""
|
| 340 |
+
try:
|
| 341 |
+
df = load_dataset(dataset_name, file_obj)
|
| 342 |
+
except gr.Error:
|
| 343 |
+
raise
|
| 344 |
+
except Exception as exc:
|
| 345 |
+
raise gr.Error(f"Could not load data: {exc}")
|
| 346 |
+
|
| 347 |
+
n = len(df)
|
| 348 |
+
folds = compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step_size, strategy, window_size)
|
| 349 |
+
K = len(folds)
|
| 350 |
+
|
| 351 |
+
if K == 0:
|
| 352 |
+
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 4), facecolor=WHITE)
|
| 353 |
+
ax.text(0.5, 0.5, "No valid folds — adjust parameters.",
|
| 354 |
+
ha="center", va="center", fontsize=14, transform=ax.transAxes)
|
| 355 |
+
ax.axis("off")
|
| 356 |
+
empty_df = pd.DataFrame(columns=[
|
| 357 |
+
"Fold", "Train Start", "Train End", "Test Start", "Test End",
|
| 358 |
+
"Train Size", "MAE", "RMSE", "MAPE (%)"
|
| 359 |
+
])
|
| 360 |
+
summary = "**No valid folds.** Reduce `initial` + `horizon` or increase data length."
|
| 361 |
+
return fig, empty_df, summary
|
| 362 |
+
|
| 363 |
+
strategy_label = strategy
|
| 364 |
+
fig = _make_figure(df, folds, current_fold, show_all, strategy_label)
|
| 365 |
+
metrics_df = naive_metrics(df["y"], folds)
|
| 366 |
+
|
| 367 |
+
# Append average row
|
| 368 |
+
avg_row = {
|
| 369 |
+
"Fold": "Avg",
|
| 370 |
+
"Train Start": "",
|
| 371 |
+
"Train End": "",
|
| 372 |
+
"Test Start": "",
|
| 373 |
+
"Test End": "",
|
| 374 |
+
"Train Size": "",
|
| 375 |
+
"MAE": round(metrics_df["MAE"].mean(), 2),
|
| 376 |
+
"RMSE": round(metrics_df["RMSE"].mean(), 2),
|
| 377 |
+
}
|
| 378 |
+
mape_vals = pd.to_numeric(metrics_df["MAPE (%)"], errors="coerce")
|
| 379 |
+
avg_row["MAPE (%)"] = round(mape_vals.mean(), 2) if not mape_vals.isna().all() else "N/A"
|
| 380 |
+
avg_df = pd.concat([metrics_df, pd.DataFrame([avg_row])], ignore_index=True)
|
| 381 |
+
|
| 382 |
+
summary = build_summary(folds, strategy, initial, step_size, metrics_df)
|
| 383 |
+
plt.close("all")
|
| 384 |
+
return fig, avg_df, summary
|
| 385 |
+
|
| 386 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 387 |
+
# Gradio UI
|
| 388 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 389 |
+
|
| 390 |
+
def build_app():
|
| 391 |
+
theme = gr.themes.Soft(
|
| 392 |
+
primary_hue=gr.themes.Color(
|
| 393 |
+
c50="#eafaf9", c100="#d4f5f3", c200="#aaecea",
|
| 394 |
+
c300="#84d6d3", c400="#5ec4c0", c500="#3eaea9",
|
| 395 |
+
c600="#2e938e", c700="#237873", c800="#1a5d59",
|
| 396 |
+
c900="#12423f", c950="#0a2725",
|
| 397 |
+
),
|
| 398 |
+
secondary_hue=gr.themes.Color(
|
| 399 |
+
c50="#fef2f3", c100="#fde6e8", c200="#fbd0d5",
|
| 400 |
+
c300="#f7a4ae", c400="#f17182", c500="#C3142D",
|
| 401 |
+
c600="#b01228", c700="#8B0E1E", c800="#6e0b18",
|
| 402 |
+
c900="#5c0d17", c950="#33040a",
|
| 403 |
+
),
|
| 404 |
+
font=[gr.themes.GoogleFont("Inter"), "ui-sans-serif", "system-ui", "sans-serif"],
|
| 405 |
+
)
|
| 406 |
+
|
| 407 |
+
with gr.Blocks(
|
| 408 |
+
title="Cross-Validation Visualizer v1.0",
|
| 409 |
+
theme=theme,
|
| 410 |
+
css="""
|
| 411 |
+
.gradio-container { max-width: 1280px !important; margin: auto; }
|
| 412 |
+
footer { display: none !important; }
|
| 413 |
+
.gr-button-primary { background: #C3142D !important; border: none !important; }
|
| 414 |
+
.gr-button-primary:hover { background: #8B0E1E !important; }
|
| 415 |
+
.gr-button-secondary { border-color: #84d6d3 !important; color: #84d6d3 !important; }
|
| 416 |
+
.gr-button-secondary:hover { background: #84d6d3 !important; color: white !important; }
|
| 417 |
+
.gr-input:focus { border-color: #84d6d3 !important; box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(132,214,211,0.2) !important; }
|
| 418 |
+
""",
|
| 419 |
+
) as demo:
|
| 420 |
+
gr.HTML("""
|
| 421 |
+
<div style="display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 16px; padding: 16px 24px;
|
| 422 |
+
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #C3142D 0%, #8B0E1E 100%);
|
| 423 |
+
border-radius: 12px; margin-bottom: 16px; box-shadow: 0 4px 12px rgba(0,0,0,0.15);">
|
| 424 |
+
<img src="https://miamioh.edu/miami-brand/_files/images/system/logo-usage/minimum-size/beveled-m-min-size.png"
|
| 425 |
+
alt="Miami University" style="height: 56px;">
|
| 426 |
+
<div>
|
| 427 |
+
<h1 style="margin: 0; color: white; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: -0.5px;">
|
| 428 |
+
Cross-Validation Visualizer v1.0
|
| 429 |
+
</h1>
|
| 430 |
+
<p style="margin: 4px 0 0; color: rgba(255,255,255,0.85); font-size: 14px;">
|
| 431 |
+
ISA 444: Business Forecasting · Farmer School of Business · Miami University
|
| 432 |
+
</p>
|
| 433 |
+
</div>
|
| 434 |
+
</div>
|
| 435 |
+
""")
|
| 436 |
+
|
| 437 |
+
gr.HTML("""
|
| 438 |
+
<div style="background: #f8f9fa; border-left: 4px solid #84d6d3; padding: 12px 16px;
|
| 439 |
+
border-radius: 0 8px 8px 0; margin-bottom: 16px; font-size: 14px; color: #585E60;">
|
| 440 |
+
Visualize time-series cross-validation strategies (expanding window and rolling/sliding window)
|
| 441 |
+
with animated fold progression and per-fold accuracy metrics using a naive forecast.
|
| 442 |
+
Understand how forecast accuracy is evaluated across folds.
|
| 443 |
+
</div>
|
| 444 |
+
""")
|
| 445 |
+
|
| 446 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
| 447 |
+
# ---- Left column: controls ----
|
| 448 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=1, min_width=300):
|
| 449 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Data")
|
| 450 |
+
dataset_dd = gr.Dropdown(
|
| 451 |
+
choices=["Airline Passengers", "Ohio Employment",
|
| 452 |
+
"Simple Trend + Noise", "Upload CSV"],
|
| 453 |
+
value="Simple Trend + Noise",
|
| 454 |
+
label="Dataset",
|
| 455 |
+
)
|
| 456 |
+
csv_upload = gr.File(
|
| 457 |
+
label="Upload CSV (columns: ds, y)",
|
| 458 |
+
file_types=[".csv"],
|
| 459 |
+
visible=False,
|
| 460 |
+
)
|
| 461 |
+
|
| 462 |
+
gr.Markdown("### CV Strategy")
|
| 463 |
+
strategy_radio = gr.Radio(
|
| 464 |
+
choices=["Expanding Window", "Rolling/Sliding Window"],
|
| 465 |
+
value="Expanding Window",
|
| 466 |
+
label="Strategy",
|
| 467 |
+
)
|
| 468 |
+
|
| 469 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Parameters")
|
| 470 |
+
initial_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 471 |
+
minimum=12, maximum=120, value=60, step=1,
|
| 472 |
+
label="initial (initial training size)",
|
| 473 |
+
)
|
| 474 |
+
horizon_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 475 |
+
minimum=1, maximum=24, value=12, step=1,
|
| 476 |
+
label="horizon (forecast horizon)",
|
| 477 |
+
)
|
| 478 |
+
step_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 479 |
+
minimum=1, maximum=12, value=1, step=1,
|
| 480 |
+
label="step (step size between folds)",
|
| 481 |
+
)
|
| 482 |
+
window_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 483 |
+
minimum=12, maximum=120, value=60, step=1,
|
| 484 |
+
label="window_size (rolling window only)",
|
| 485 |
+
visible=False,
|
| 486 |
+
)
|
| 487 |
+
|
| 488 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Animation Controls")
|
| 489 |
+
fold_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 490 |
+
minimum=1, maximum=1, value=1, step=1,
|
| 491 |
+
label="Current Fold",
|
| 492 |
+
)
|
| 493 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
| 494 |
+
play_btn = gr.Button("Play Animation", variant="primary")
|
| 495 |
+
stop_btn = gr.Button("Stop", variant="stop")
|
| 496 |
+
show_all_cb = gr.Checkbox(label="Show All Folds", value=False)
|
| 497 |
+
|
| 498 |
+
# ---- Right column: outputs ----
|
| 499 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=2, min_width=500):
|
| 500 |
+
plot_output = gr.Plot(label="Visualization")
|
| 501 |
+
metrics_output = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 502 |
+
label="Per-Fold Metrics (Naive Forecast)",
|
| 503 |
+
interactive=False,
|
| 504 |
+
wrap=True,
|
| 505 |
+
)
|
| 506 |
+
summary_output = gr.Markdown(label="Summary")
|
| 507 |
+
|
| 508 |
+
# ---- Visibility toggles ----
|
| 509 |
+
def toggle_csv_upload(name):
|
| 510 |
+
return gr.update(visible=(name == "Upload CSV"))
|
| 511 |
+
|
| 512 |
+
dataset_dd.change(toggle_csv_upload, inputs=[dataset_dd], outputs=[csv_upload])
|
| 513 |
+
|
| 514 |
+
def toggle_window_slider(strategy):
|
| 515 |
+
return gr.update(visible=(strategy == "Rolling/Sliding Window"))
|
| 516 |
+
|
| 517 |
+
strategy_radio.change(toggle_window_slider, inputs=[strategy_radio], outputs=[window_slider])
|
| 518 |
+
|
| 519 |
+
# ---- Gather all control inputs ----
|
| 520 |
+
all_inputs = [
|
| 521 |
+
dataset_dd, csv_upload, strategy_radio,
|
| 522 |
+
initial_slider, horizon_slider, step_slider,
|
| 523 |
+
window_slider, fold_slider, show_all_cb,
|
| 524 |
+
]
|
| 525 |
+
all_outputs = [plot_output, metrics_output, summary_output]
|
| 526 |
+
|
| 527 |
+
# Helper to also refresh the fold slider range
|
| 528 |
+
fold_range_inputs = [
|
| 529 |
+
dataset_dd, csv_upload, strategy_radio,
|
| 530 |
+
initial_slider, horizon_slider, step_slider, window_slider,
|
| 531 |
+
]
|
| 532 |
+
|
| 533 |
+
def refresh_and_run(dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon,
|
| 534 |
+
step_size, window_size, current_fold, show_all):
|
| 535 |
+
"""Update fold slider range, clamp current_fold, then run."""
|
| 536 |
+
try:
|
| 537 |
+
df = load_dataset(dataset_name, file_obj)
|
| 538 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 539 |
+
df = DATASETS["Simple Trend + Noise"]()
|
| 540 |
+
n = len(df)
|
| 541 |
+
folds = compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step_size, strategy, window_size)
|
| 542 |
+
K = max(len(folds), 1)
|
| 543 |
+
current_fold = max(1, min(current_fold, K))
|
| 544 |
+
fig, metrics, summary = run_visualizer(
|
| 545 |
+
dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon,
|
| 546 |
+
step_size, window_size, current_fold, show_all,
|
| 547 |
+
)
|
| 548 |
+
return gr.update(maximum=K, value=current_fold), fig, metrics, summary
|
| 549 |
+
|
| 550 |
+
combined_outputs = [fold_slider] + all_outputs
|
| 551 |
+
|
| 552 |
+
# Trigger on any parameter change
|
| 553 |
+
for ctrl in [dataset_dd, csv_upload, strategy_radio, initial_slider,
|
| 554 |
+
horizon_slider, step_slider, window_slider, show_all_cb]:
|
| 555 |
+
ctrl.change(
|
| 556 |
+
refresh_and_run,
|
| 557 |
+
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 558 |
+
outputs=combined_outputs,
|
| 559 |
+
)
|
| 560 |
+
|
| 561 |
+
# Fold slider change (just re-render, no range update needed)
|
| 562 |
+
fold_slider.release(
|
| 563 |
+
run_visualizer,
|
| 564 |
+
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 565 |
+
outputs=all_outputs,
|
| 566 |
+
)
|
| 567 |
+
|
| 568 |
+
# ---- Animation via a background thread ----
|
| 569 |
+
# We use a gr.State to hold the "playing" flag
|
| 570 |
+
animation_state = gr.State({"playing": False})
|
| 571 |
+
|
| 572 |
+
def start_animation(state, dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial,
|
| 573 |
+
horizon, step_size, window_size, current_fold, show_all):
|
| 574 |
+
state["playing"] = True
|
| 575 |
+
try:
|
| 576 |
+
df = load_dataset(dataset_name, file_obj)
|
| 577 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 578 |
+
df = DATASETS["Simple Trend + Noise"]()
|
| 579 |
+
n = len(df)
|
| 580 |
+
folds = compute_folds(n, initial, horizon, step_size, strategy, window_size)
|
| 581 |
+
K = max(len(folds), 1)
|
| 582 |
+
|
| 583 |
+
for k in range(1, K + 1):
|
| 584 |
+
if not state.get("playing", False):
|
| 585 |
+
break
|
| 586 |
+
fig, metrics, summary = run_visualizer(
|
| 587 |
+
dataset_name, file_obj, strategy, initial, horizon,
|
| 588 |
+
step_size, window_size, k, False,
|
| 589 |
+
)
|
| 590 |
+
yield state, gr.update(maximum=K, value=k), fig, metrics, summary
|
| 591 |
+
time.sleep(1.0)
|
| 592 |
+
state["playing"] = False
|
| 593 |
+
yield state, gr.update(), fig, metrics, summary
|
| 594 |
+
|
| 595 |
+
def stop_animation(state):
|
| 596 |
+
state["playing"] = False
|
| 597 |
+
return state
|
| 598 |
+
|
| 599 |
+
play_btn.click(
|
| 600 |
+
start_animation,
|
| 601 |
+
inputs=[animation_state] + all_inputs,
|
| 602 |
+
outputs=[animation_state, fold_slider] + all_outputs,
|
| 603 |
+
)
|
| 604 |
+
stop_btn.click(stop_animation, inputs=[animation_state], outputs=[animation_state])
|
| 605 |
+
|
| 606 |
+
# ---- Initial render on load ----
|
| 607 |
+
demo.load(
|
| 608 |
+
refresh_and_run,
|
| 609 |
+
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 610 |
+
outputs=combined_outputs,
|
| 611 |
+
)
|
| 612 |
+
|
| 613 |
+
gr.HTML("""
|
| 614 |
+
<div style="margin-top: 24px; padding: 16px; background: #f8f9fa; border-radius: 8px;
|
| 615 |
+
text-align: center; font-size: 13px; color: #585E60; border-top: 2px solid #84d6d3;">
|
| 616 |
+
<div style="margin-bottom: 4px;">
|
| 617 |
+
<strong style="color: #C3142D;">Developed by</strong>
|
| 618 |
+
<a href="https://miamioh.edu/fsb/directory/?up=/directory/megahefm"
|
| 619 |
+
style="color: #84d6d3; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600;">
|
| 620 |
+
Fadel M. Megahed
|
| 621 |
+
</a>
|
| 622 |
+
· Gloss Professor of Analytics · Miami University
|
| 623 |
+
</div>
|
| 624 |
+
<div style="font-size: 12px; color: #888;">
|
| 625 |
+
Version 1.0.0 · Spring 2026 ·
|
| 626 |
+
<a href="https://github.com/fmegahed" style="color: #84d6d3; text-decoration: none;">GitHub</a> ·
|
| 627 |
+
<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/fmegahed/" style="color: #84d6d3; text-decoration: none;">LinkedIn</a>
|
| 628 |
+
</div>
|
| 629 |
+
</div>
|
| 630 |
+
""")
|
| 631 |
+
|
| 632 |
+
return demo
|
| 633 |
+
|
| 634 |
+
|
| 635 |
+
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 636 |
+
app = build_app()
|
| 637 |
+
app.launch()
|