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app.py
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"""
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Decomposition Explorer
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Interactive tool for exploring time-series decomposition methods.
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Part of ISA 444: Business Forecasting at Miami University (Spring 2026).
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Deployed to HuggingFace Spaces as fmegahed/decomposition-explorer.
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"""
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import io
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import warnings
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import gradio as gr
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import matplotlib
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matplotlib.use("Agg")
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import STL, seasonal_decompose
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Color palette
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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CLR_PRIMARY = "#84d6d3" # teal
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CLR_ACCENT = "#C3142D" # Miami red
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CLR_TREND = "#C3142D"
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CLR_SEASON = "#84d6d3"
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CLR_RESID = "#666666"
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Built-in datasets
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _airline_passengers() -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Classic Box-Jenkins airline passengers (1949-1960, monthly)."""
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try:
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from statsmodels.datasets import co2 # noqa: F401
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import statsmodels.api as sm
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data = sm.datasets.get_rdataset("AirPassengers", "datasets").data
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dates = pd.date_range(start="1949-01-01", periods=len(data), freq="MS")
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return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": data.iloc[:, 0].values})
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except Exception:
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# Fallback: generate the well-known series manually
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np.random.seed(0)
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dates = pd.date_range("1949-01-01", "1960-12-01", freq="MS")
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n = len(dates)
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t = np.arange(n)
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trend = 110 + 2.5 * t
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seasonal_pattern = np.array(
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[-24, -20, 2, -1, -5, 30, 47, 46, 14, -10, -25, -26]
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)
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season = np.tile(seasonal_pattern, n // 12 + 1)[:n]
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noise = np.random.normal(0, 6, n)
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y = trend + season * (1 + 0.02 * t) + noise
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return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
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def _us_retail_employment() -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Realistic synthetic monthly US retail employment (2000-2024)."""
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np.random.seed(42)
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dates = pd.date_range("2000-01-01", "2024-12-01", freq="MS")
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n = len(dates)
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t = np.arange(n)
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# Trend: upward with dips around 2008-09 and 2020
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trend = 15_000 + 12 * t
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# 2008-2009 recession dip
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recession_08 = -1400 * np.exp(-0.5 * ((t - 108) / 8) ** 2)
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# 2020 COVID dip
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covid_20 = -2800 * np.exp(-0.5 * ((t - 243) / 3) ** 2)
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trend = trend + recession_08 + covid_20
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# Seasonal pattern (retail peaks in Nov-Dec)
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seasonal_pattern = np.array(
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[-200, -350, -100, 50, 100, 150, 100, 80, -50, -100, 250, 500]
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)
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season = np.tile(seasonal_pattern, n // 12 + 1)[:n]
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noise = np.random.normal(0, 60, n)
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y = trend + season + noise
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return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
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def _ohio_nonfarm() -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Realistic synthetic monthly Ohio nonfarm employment (2010-2024)."""
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np.random.seed(7)
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dates = pd.date_range("2010-01-01", "2024-12-01", freq="MS")
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n = len(dates)
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t = np.arange(n)
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trend = 5_100 + 4.5 * t
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# COVID dip
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covid = -650 * np.exp(-0.5 * ((t - 123) / 3) ** 2)
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trend = trend + covid
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seasonal_pattern = np.array(
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[-80, -50, 30, 50, 70, 60, 20, 10, 30, 20, -30, -60]
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)
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season = np.tile(seasonal_pattern, n // 12 + 1)[:n]
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noise = np.random.normal(0, 25, n)
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y = trend + season + noise
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return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
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BUILTIN_DATASETS = {
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"Airline Passengers": _airline_passengers,
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"US Retail Employment": _us_retail_employment,
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"Ohio Nonfarm Employment": _ohio_nonfarm,
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}
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Helpers
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _load_dataset(name: str, csv_file) -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Return a DataFrame with columns ds (datetime) and y (float)."""
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if csv_file is not None:
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try:
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raw = pd.read_csv(csv_file.name if hasattr(csv_file, "name") else csv_file)
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if "ds" not in raw.columns or "y" not in raw.columns:
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raise ValueError("CSV must contain columns 'ds' and 'y'.")
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raw["ds"] = pd.to_datetime(raw["ds"])
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raw["y"] = pd.to_numeric(raw["y"], errors="coerce")
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raw = raw.dropna(subset=["y"]).sort_values("ds").reset_index(drop=True)
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return raw
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except Exception as exc:
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raise gr.Error(f"Could not read uploaded CSV: {exc}")
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if name in BUILTIN_DATASETS:
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return BUILTIN_DATASETS[name]()
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raise gr.Error(f"Unknown dataset: {name}")
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def _ensure_odd(val: int) -> int:
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"""Force a value to be odd (required by statsmodels windows)."""
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val = int(val)
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return val if val % 2 == 1 else val + 1
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def _strength(residual: np.ndarray, component_plus_residual: np.ndarray) -> float:
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"""Compute strength of a component: max(0, 1 - Var(R)/Var(C+R))."""
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var_r = np.nanvar(residual)
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var_cr = np.nanvar(component_plus_residual)
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if var_cr == 0:
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return 0.0
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return float(max(0.0, 1.0 - var_r / var_cr))
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Core decomposition + plotting
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def decompose_and_plot(
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dataset_name: str,
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csv_file,
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method: str,
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period: int,
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stl_seasonal: int,
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stl_trend: int,
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stl_robust: bool,
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):
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"""Run decomposition and return (matplotlib Figure, summary string)."""
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# --- Load data --------------------------------------------------------
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df = _load_dataset(dataset_name, csv_file)
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if len(df) < 2 * period:
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raise gr.Error(
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f"Not enough observations ({len(df)}) for the chosen period ({period}). "
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f"Need at least {2 * period} observations."
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)
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y_series = pd.Series(df["y"].values, index=df["ds"])
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# --- Decompose --------------------------------------------------------
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with warnings.catch_warnings():
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warnings.simplefilter("ignore")
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if method == "STL":
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stl_seasonal = _ensure_odd(stl_seasonal)
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stl_trend_val = _ensure_odd(stl_trend) if stl_trend > 0 else None
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stl_obj = STL(
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y_series,
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period=int(period),
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seasonal=stl_seasonal,
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trend=stl_trend_val,
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robust=bool(stl_robust),
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)
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result = stl_obj.fit()
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else:
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model_type = "additive" if "Additive" in method else "multiplicative"
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result = seasonal_decompose(
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y_series, model=model_type, period=int(period)
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)
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observed = result.observed
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trend = result.trend
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seasonal = result.seasonal
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resid = result.resid
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# --- Strength measures ------------------------------------------------
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r = resid.values
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t = trend.values
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s = seasonal.values
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mask = ~(np.isnan(r) | np.isnan(t) | np.isnan(s))
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r_clean = r[mask]
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t_clean = t[mask]
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s_clean = s[mask]
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f_trend = _strength(r_clean, t_clean + r_clean)
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f_season = _strength(r_clean, s_clean + r_clean)
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# --- Plot -------------------------------------------------------------
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fig, axes = plt.subplots(4, 1, figsize=(10, 8), sharex=True)
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fig.patch.set_facecolor("white")
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for ax in axes:
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ax.set_facecolor("white")
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ax.grid(True, linewidth=0.3, alpha=0.5)
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dates = observed.index
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# 1. Observed
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axes[0].plot(dates, observed, color=CLR_PRIMARY, linewidth=1.2)
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axes[0].set_ylabel("Observed", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold")
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# 2. Trend
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axes[1].plot(dates, trend, color=CLR_TREND, linewidth=1.4)
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axes[1].set_ylabel("Trend", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold")
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# 3. Seasonal
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axes[2].plot(dates, seasonal, color=CLR_SEASON, linewidth=1.0)
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axes[2].set_ylabel("Seasonal", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold")
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# 4. Residual
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axes[3].plot(dates, resid, color=CLR_RESID, linewidth=0.8, alpha=0.8)
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axes[3].set_ylabel("Remainder", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold")
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axes[3].set_xlabel("Date", fontsize=10)
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method_label = method if method == "STL" else method.replace("Classical ", "Classical – ")
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fig.suptitle(
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f"Decomposition · {method_label} · period = {period}",
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fontsize=13,
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fontweight="bold",
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y=0.98,
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)
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fig.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0, 1, 0.96])
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# --- Summary text -----------------------------------------------------
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summary = (
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f"Strength of Trend (F_T): {f_trend:.4f}\n"
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f"Strength of Seasonality (F_S): {f_season:.4f}\n\n"
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f"Formulas:\n"
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f" F_T = max(0, 1 − Var(R) / Var(T + R))\n"
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f" F_S = max(0, 1 − Var(R) / Var(S + R))"
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)
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return fig, summary
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Gradio UI
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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_THEME = gr.themes.Soft(
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primary_hue=gr.themes.Color(
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c50="#fef2f3", c100="#fde6e8", c200="#fbd0d5",
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c300="#f7a4ae", c400="#f17182", c500="#C3142D",
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c600="#b01228", c700="#8B0E1E", c800="#6e0b18",
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c900="#5c0d17", c950="#33040a",
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),
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secondary_hue=gr.themes.Color(
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c50="#fef2f3", c100="#fde6e8", c200="#fbd0d5",
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c300="#f7a4ae", c400="#f17182", c500="#C3142D",
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c600="#b01228", c700="#8B0E1E", c800="#6e0b18",
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c900="#5c0d17", c950="#33040a",
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),
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neutral_hue=gr.themes.Color(
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c50="#EDECE2", c100="#E5E4D9", c200="#DDDCD0",
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c300="#C8C7BC", c400="#A3A299", c500="#858479",
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c600="#6B6A61", c700="#53524B", c800="#3B3A35",
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c900="#252420", c950="#151410",
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),
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font=[gr.themes.GoogleFont("Inter"), "ui-sans-serif", "system-ui", "sans-serif"],
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)
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_CSS = """
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.gradio-container { max-width: 1280px !important; margin: auto; }
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footer { display: none !important; }
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.gr-button-primary { background: #C3142D !important; border: none !important; }
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.gr-button-primary:hover { background: #8B0E1E !important; }
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.gr-button-secondary { border-color: #C3142D !important; color: #C3142D !important; }
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.gr-button-secondary:hover { background: #8B0E1E !important; color: white !important; }
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.gr-input:focus { border-color: #C3142D !important; box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(195,20,45,0.2) !important; }
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"""
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def build_app() -> gr.Blocks:
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with gr.Blocks(title="Decomposition Explorer v1.0") as app:
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gr.HTML("""
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<div style="display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 16px; padding: 16px 24px;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #C3142D 0%, #8B0E1E 100%);
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border-radius: 12px; margin-bottom: 16px; box-shadow: 0 4px 12px rgba(0,0,0,0.15);">
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<img src="
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alt="Miami University" style="height: 56px; filter: brightness(0) invert(1);">
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<div>
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<h1 style="margin: 0; color: white; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: -0.5px;">
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Decomposition Explorer v1.0
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</h1>
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<p style="margin: 4px 0 0; color: rgba(255,255,255,0.85); font-size: 14px;">
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ISA 444: Business Forecasting · Farmer School of Business · Miami University
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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""")
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gr.HTML("""
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<div style="background: #EDECE2; border-left: 4px solid #C3142D; padding: 12px 16px;
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border-radius: 0 8px 8px 0; margin-bottom: 16px; font-size: 14px; color: #585E60;">
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Interactive tool for exploring time-series decomposition methods (Classical and STL).
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Choose a built-in dataset or upload your own CSV, adjust decomposition parameters, and
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examine trend, seasonal, and remainder components along with strength measures.
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</div>
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""")
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with gr.Row():
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# --- Left column: controls ------------------------------------
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with gr.Column(scale=1, min_width=280):
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dataset_dd = gr.Dropdown(
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label="Dataset",
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choices=list(BUILTIN_DATASETS.keys()),
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value="Airline Passengers",
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)
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csv_upload = gr.File(
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label="Or upload CSV (columns: ds, y)",
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file_types=[".csv"],
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type="filepath",
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)
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method_radio = gr.Radio(
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label="Decomposition Method",
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choices=[
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"Classical (Additive)",
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"Classical (Multiplicative)",
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"STL",
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],
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value="STL",
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)
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period_slider = gr.Slider(
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label="Period / Season Length",
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minimum=2,
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maximum=52,
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step=1,
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value=12,
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)
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# STL-specific controls
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stl_group = gr.Group(visible=True)
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with stl_group:
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-
gr.Markdown("**STL Parameters**")
|
| 356 |
-
stl_seasonal_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 357 |
-
label="seasonal (seasonality window, odd)",
|
| 358 |
-
minimum=7,
|
| 359 |
-
maximum=51,
|
| 360 |
-
step=2,
|
| 361 |
-
value=13,
|
| 362 |
-
)
|
| 363 |
-
stl_trend_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 364 |
-
label="trend (trend window, odd; 0 = auto)",
|
| 365 |
-
minimum=0,
|
| 366 |
-
maximum=101,
|
| 367 |
-
step=2,
|
| 368 |
-
value=0,
|
| 369 |
-
)
|
| 370 |
-
stl_robust_cb = gr.Checkbox(
|
| 371 |
-
label="robust (robust to outliers)",
|
| 372 |
-
value=False,
|
| 373 |
-
)
|
| 374 |
-
|
| 375 |
-
# --- Right column: output -------------------------------------
|
| 376 |
-
with gr.Column(scale=3):
|
| 377 |
-
plot_output = gr.Plot(label="Decomposition")
|
| 378 |
-
summary_box = gr.Textbox(
|
| 379 |
-
label="Strength Measures",
|
| 380 |
-
lines=5,
|
| 381 |
-
interactive=False,
|
| 382 |
-
)
|
| 383 |
-
|
| 384 |
-
# --- Visibility toggle for STL controls ---------------------------
|
| 385 |
-
def toggle_stl(method):
|
| 386 |
-
return gr.Group(visible=(method == "STL"))
|
| 387 |
-
|
| 388 |
-
method_radio.change(
|
| 389 |
-
fn=toggle_stl,
|
| 390 |
-
inputs=[method_radio],
|
| 391 |
-
outputs=[stl_group],
|
| 392 |
-
)
|
| 393 |
-
|
| 394 |
-
# --- Gather all inputs --------------------------------------------
|
| 395 |
-
all_inputs = [
|
| 396 |
-
dataset_dd,
|
| 397 |
-
csv_upload,
|
| 398 |
-
method_radio,
|
| 399 |
-
period_slider,
|
| 400 |
-
stl_seasonal_slider,
|
| 401 |
-
stl_trend_slider,
|
| 402 |
-
stl_robust_cb,
|
| 403 |
-
]
|
| 404 |
-
all_outputs = [plot_output, summary_box]
|
| 405 |
-
|
| 406 |
-
# --- Wire change events -------------------------------------------
|
| 407 |
-
for ctrl in all_inputs:
|
| 408 |
-
ctrl.change(
|
| 409 |
-
fn=decompose_and_plot,
|
| 410 |
-
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 411 |
-
outputs=all_outputs,
|
| 412 |
-
)
|
| 413 |
-
|
| 414 |
-
# --- Initial load -------------------------------------------------
|
| 415 |
-
app.load(
|
| 416 |
-
fn=decompose_and_plot,
|
| 417 |
-
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 418 |
-
outputs=all_outputs,
|
| 419 |
-
)
|
| 420 |
-
|
| 421 |
-
gr.HTML("""
|
| 422 |
-
<div style="margin-top: 24px; padding: 16px; background: #EDECE2; border-radius: 8px;
|
| 423 |
-
text-align: center; font-size: 13px; color: #585E60; border-top: 2px solid #C3142D;">
|
| 424 |
-
<div style="margin-bottom: 4px;">
|
| 425 |
-
<strong style="color: #C3142D;">Developed by</strong>
|
| 426 |
-
<a href="https://miamioh.edu/fsb/directory/?up=/directory/megahefm"
|
| 427 |
-
style="color: #C3142D; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600;">
|
| 428 |
-
Fadel M. Megahed
|
| 429 |
-
</a>
|
| 430 |
-
· Gloss Professor of Analytics · Miami University
|
| 431 |
-
</div>
|
| 432 |
-
<div style="font-size: 12px; color: #888;">
|
| 433 |
-
Version 1.0.0 · Spring 2026 ·
|
| 434 |
-
<a href="https://github.com/fmegahed" style="color: #C3142D; text-decoration: none;">GitHub</a> ·
|
| 435 |
-
<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/fmegahed/" style="color: #C3142D; text-decoration: none;">LinkedIn</a>
|
| 436 |
-
</div>
|
| 437 |
-
</div>
|
| 438 |
-
""")
|
| 439 |
-
|
| 440 |
-
return app
|
| 441 |
-
|
| 442 |
-
|
| 443 |
-
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 444 |
-
# Entry point
|
| 445 |
-
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 446 |
-
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 447 |
-
demo = build_app()
|
| 448 |
-
demo.launch(theme=_THEME, css=_CSS, ssr_mode=False, allowed_paths=["beveled-m-min-size.png"])
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
"""
|
| 2 |
+
Decomposition Explorer
|
| 3 |
+
Interactive tool for exploring time-series decomposition methods.
|
| 4 |
+
Part of ISA 444: Business Forecasting at Miami University (Spring 2026).
|
| 5 |
+
|
| 6 |
+
Deployed to HuggingFace Spaces as fmegahed/decomposition-explorer.
|
| 7 |
+
"""
|
| 8 |
+
|
| 9 |
+
import io
|
| 10 |
+
import warnings
|
| 11 |
+
|
| 12 |
+
import gradio as gr
|
| 13 |
+
import matplotlib
|
| 14 |
+
matplotlib.use("Agg")
|
| 15 |
+
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 16 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 17 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 18 |
+
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import STL, seasonal_decompose
|
| 19 |
+
|
| 20 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 21 |
+
# Color palette
|
| 22 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 23 |
+
CLR_PRIMARY = "#84d6d3" # teal
|
| 24 |
+
CLR_ACCENT = "#C3142D" # Miami red
|
| 25 |
+
CLR_TREND = "#C3142D"
|
| 26 |
+
CLR_SEASON = "#84d6d3"
|
| 27 |
+
CLR_RESID = "#666666"
|
| 28 |
+
|
| 29 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 30 |
+
# Built-in datasets
|
| 31 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 32 |
+
|
| 33 |
+
def _airline_passengers() -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 34 |
+
"""Classic Box-Jenkins airline passengers (1949-1960, monthly)."""
|
| 35 |
+
try:
|
| 36 |
+
from statsmodels.datasets import co2 # noqa: F401
|
| 37 |
+
import statsmodels.api as sm
|
| 38 |
+
data = sm.datasets.get_rdataset("AirPassengers", "datasets").data
|
| 39 |
+
dates = pd.date_range(start="1949-01-01", periods=len(data), freq="MS")
|
| 40 |
+
return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": data.iloc[:, 0].values})
|
| 41 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 42 |
+
# Fallback: generate the well-known series manually
|
| 43 |
+
np.random.seed(0)
|
| 44 |
+
dates = pd.date_range("1949-01-01", "1960-12-01", freq="MS")
|
| 45 |
+
n = len(dates)
|
| 46 |
+
t = np.arange(n)
|
| 47 |
+
trend = 110 + 2.5 * t
|
| 48 |
+
seasonal_pattern = np.array(
|
| 49 |
+
[-24, -20, 2, -1, -5, 30, 47, 46, 14, -10, -25, -26]
|
| 50 |
+
)
|
| 51 |
+
season = np.tile(seasonal_pattern, n // 12 + 1)[:n]
|
| 52 |
+
noise = np.random.normal(0, 6, n)
|
| 53 |
+
y = trend + season * (1 + 0.02 * t) + noise
|
| 54 |
+
return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
|
| 55 |
+
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
def _us_retail_employment() -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 58 |
+
"""Realistic synthetic monthly US retail employment (2000-2024)."""
|
| 59 |
+
np.random.seed(42)
|
| 60 |
+
dates = pd.date_range("2000-01-01", "2024-12-01", freq="MS")
|
| 61 |
+
n = len(dates)
|
| 62 |
+
t = np.arange(n)
|
| 63 |
+
|
| 64 |
+
# Trend: upward with dips around 2008-09 and 2020
|
| 65 |
+
trend = 15_000 + 12 * t
|
| 66 |
+
# 2008-2009 recession dip
|
| 67 |
+
recession_08 = -1400 * np.exp(-0.5 * ((t - 108) / 8) ** 2)
|
| 68 |
+
# 2020 COVID dip
|
| 69 |
+
covid_20 = -2800 * np.exp(-0.5 * ((t - 243) / 3) ** 2)
|
| 70 |
+
trend = trend + recession_08 + covid_20
|
| 71 |
+
|
| 72 |
+
# Seasonal pattern (retail peaks in Nov-Dec)
|
| 73 |
+
seasonal_pattern = np.array(
|
| 74 |
+
[-200, -350, -100, 50, 100, 150, 100, 80, -50, -100, 250, 500]
|
| 75 |
+
)
|
| 76 |
+
season = np.tile(seasonal_pattern, n // 12 + 1)[:n]
|
| 77 |
+
|
| 78 |
+
noise = np.random.normal(0, 60, n)
|
| 79 |
+
y = trend + season + noise
|
| 80 |
+
return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
|
| 81 |
+
|
| 82 |
+
|
| 83 |
+
def _ohio_nonfarm() -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 84 |
+
"""Realistic synthetic monthly Ohio nonfarm employment (2010-2024)."""
|
| 85 |
+
np.random.seed(7)
|
| 86 |
+
dates = pd.date_range("2010-01-01", "2024-12-01", freq="MS")
|
| 87 |
+
n = len(dates)
|
| 88 |
+
t = np.arange(n)
|
| 89 |
+
|
| 90 |
+
trend = 5_100 + 4.5 * t
|
| 91 |
+
# COVID dip
|
| 92 |
+
covid = -650 * np.exp(-0.5 * ((t - 123) / 3) ** 2)
|
| 93 |
+
trend = trend + covid
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
seasonal_pattern = np.array(
|
| 96 |
+
[-80, -50, 30, 50, 70, 60, 20, 10, 30, 20, -30, -60]
|
| 97 |
+
)
|
| 98 |
+
season = np.tile(seasonal_pattern, n // 12 + 1)[:n]
|
| 99 |
+
|
| 100 |
+
noise = np.random.normal(0, 25, n)
|
| 101 |
+
y = trend + season + noise
|
| 102 |
+
return pd.DataFrame({"ds": dates, "y": np.round(y, 1)})
|
| 103 |
+
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
BUILTIN_DATASETS = {
|
| 106 |
+
"Airline Passengers": _airline_passengers,
|
| 107 |
+
"US Retail Employment": _us_retail_employment,
|
| 108 |
+
"Ohio Nonfarm Employment": _ohio_nonfarm,
|
| 109 |
+
}
|
| 110 |
+
|
| 111 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 112 |
+
# Helpers
|
| 113 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 114 |
+
|
| 115 |
+
def _load_dataset(name: str, csv_file) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 116 |
+
"""Return a DataFrame with columns ds (datetime) and y (float)."""
|
| 117 |
+
if csv_file is not None:
|
| 118 |
+
try:
|
| 119 |
+
raw = pd.read_csv(csv_file.name if hasattr(csv_file, "name") else csv_file)
|
| 120 |
+
if "ds" not in raw.columns or "y" not in raw.columns:
|
| 121 |
+
raise ValueError("CSV must contain columns 'ds' and 'y'.")
|
| 122 |
+
raw["ds"] = pd.to_datetime(raw["ds"])
|
| 123 |
+
raw["y"] = pd.to_numeric(raw["y"], errors="coerce")
|
| 124 |
+
raw = raw.dropna(subset=["y"]).sort_values("ds").reset_index(drop=True)
|
| 125 |
+
return raw
|
| 126 |
+
except Exception as exc:
|
| 127 |
+
raise gr.Error(f"Could not read uploaded CSV: {exc}")
|
| 128 |
+
if name in BUILTIN_DATASETS:
|
| 129 |
+
return BUILTIN_DATASETS[name]()
|
| 130 |
+
raise gr.Error(f"Unknown dataset: {name}")
|
| 131 |
+
|
| 132 |
+
|
| 133 |
+
def _ensure_odd(val: int) -> int:
|
| 134 |
+
"""Force a value to be odd (required by statsmodels windows)."""
|
| 135 |
+
val = int(val)
|
| 136 |
+
return val if val % 2 == 1 else val + 1
|
| 137 |
+
|
| 138 |
+
|
| 139 |
+
def _strength(residual: np.ndarray, component_plus_residual: np.ndarray) -> float:
|
| 140 |
+
"""Compute strength of a component: max(0, 1 - Var(R)/Var(C+R))."""
|
| 141 |
+
var_r = np.nanvar(residual)
|
| 142 |
+
var_cr = np.nanvar(component_plus_residual)
|
| 143 |
+
if var_cr == 0:
|
| 144 |
+
return 0.0
|
| 145 |
+
return float(max(0.0, 1.0 - var_r / var_cr))
|
| 146 |
+
|
| 147 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 148 |
+
# Core decomposition + plotting
|
| 149 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 150 |
+
|
| 151 |
+
def decompose_and_plot(
|
| 152 |
+
dataset_name: str,
|
| 153 |
+
csv_file,
|
| 154 |
+
method: str,
|
| 155 |
+
period: int,
|
| 156 |
+
stl_seasonal: int,
|
| 157 |
+
stl_trend: int,
|
| 158 |
+
stl_robust: bool,
|
| 159 |
+
):
|
| 160 |
+
"""Run decomposition and return (matplotlib Figure, summary string)."""
|
| 161 |
+
|
| 162 |
+
# --- Load data --------------------------------------------------------
|
| 163 |
+
df = _load_dataset(dataset_name, csv_file)
|
| 164 |
+
|
| 165 |
+
if len(df) < 2 * period:
|
| 166 |
+
raise gr.Error(
|
| 167 |
+
f"Not enough observations ({len(df)}) for the chosen period ({period}). "
|
| 168 |
+
f"Need at least {2 * period} observations."
|
| 169 |
+
)
|
| 170 |
+
|
| 171 |
+
y_series = pd.Series(df["y"].values, index=df["ds"])
|
| 172 |
+
|
| 173 |
+
# --- Decompose --------------------------------------------------------
|
| 174 |
+
with warnings.catch_warnings():
|
| 175 |
+
warnings.simplefilter("ignore")
|
| 176 |
+
|
| 177 |
+
if method == "STL":
|
| 178 |
+
stl_seasonal = _ensure_odd(stl_seasonal)
|
| 179 |
+
stl_trend_val = _ensure_odd(stl_trend) if stl_trend > 0 else None
|
| 180 |
+
stl_obj = STL(
|
| 181 |
+
y_series,
|
| 182 |
+
period=int(period),
|
| 183 |
+
seasonal=stl_seasonal,
|
| 184 |
+
trend=stl_trend_val,
|
| 185 |
+
robust=bool(stl_robust),
|
| 186 |
+
)
|
| 187 |
+
result = stl_obj.fit()
|
| 188 |
+
else:
|
| 189 |
+
model_type = "additive" if "Additive" in method else "multiplicative"
|
| 190 |
+
result = seasonal_decompose(
|
| 191 |
+
y_series, model=model_type, period=int(period)
|
| 192 |
+
)
|
| 193 |
+
|
| 194 |
+
observed = result.observed
|
| 195 |
+
trend = result.trend
|
| 196 |
+
seasonal = result.seasonal
|
| 197 |
+
resid = result.resid
|
| 198 |
+
|
| 199 |
+
# --- Strength measures ------------------------------------------------
|
| 200 |
+
r = resid.values
|
| 201 |
+
t = trend.values
|
| 202 |
+
s = seasonal.values
|
| 203 |
+
mask = ~(np.isnan(r) | np.isnan(t) | np.isnan(s))
|
| 204 |
+
r_clean = r[mask]
|
| 205 |
+
t_clean = t[mask]
|
| 206 |
+
s_clean = s[mask]
|
| 207 |
+
|
| 208 |
+
f_trend = _strength(r_clean, t_clean + r_clean)
|
| 209 |
+
f_season = _strength(r_clean, s_clean + r_clean)
|
| 210 |
+
|
| 211 |
+
# --- Plot -------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 212 |
+
fig, axes = plt.subplots(4, 1, figsize=(10, 8), sharex=True)
|
| 213 |
+
fig.patch.set_facecolor("white")
|
| 214 |
+
for ax in axes:
|
| 215 |
+
ax.set_facecolor("white")
|
| 216 |
+
ax.grid(True, linewidth=0.3, alpha=0.5)
|
| 217 |
+
|
| 218 |
+
dates = observed.index
|
| 219 |
+
|
| 220 |
+
# 1. Observed
|
| 221 |
+
axes[0].plot(dates, observed, color=CLR_PRIMARY, linewidth=1.2)
|
| 222 |
+
axes[0].set_ylabel("Observed", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold")
|
| 223 |
+
|
| 224 |
+
# 2. Trend
|
| 225 |
+
axes[1].plot(dates, trend, color=CLR_TREND, linewidth=1.4)
|
| 226 |
+
axes[1].set_ylabel("Trend", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold")
|
| 227 |
+
|
| 228 |
+
# 3. Seasonal
|
| 229 |
+
axes[2].plot(dates, seasonal, color=CLR_SEASON, linewidth=1.0)
|
| 230 |
+
axes[2].set_ylabel("Seasonal", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold")
|
| 231 |
+
|
| 232 |
+
# 4. Residual
|
| 233 |
+
axes[3].plot(dates, resid, color=CLR_RESID, linewidth=0.8, alpha=0.8)
|
| 234 |
+
axes[3].set_ylabel("Remainder", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold")
|
| 235 |
+
axes[3].set_xlabel("Date", fontsize=10)
|
| 236 |
+
|
| 237 |
+
method_label = method if method == "STL" else method.replace("Classical ", "Classical – ")
|
| 238 |
+
fig.suptitle(
|
| 239 |
+
f"Decomposition · {method_label} · period = {period}",
|
| 240 |
+
fontsize=13,
|
| 241 |
+
fontweight="bold",
|
| 242 |
+
y=0.98,
|
| 243 |
+
)
|
| 244 |
+
fig.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0, 1, 0.96])
|
| 245 |
+
|
| 246 |
+
# --- Summary text -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 247 |
+
summary = (
|
| 248 |
+
f"Strength of Trend (F_T): {f_trend:.4f}\n"
|
| 249 |
+
f"Strength of Seasonality (F_S): {f_season:.4f}\n\n"
|
| 250 |
+
f"Formulas:\n"
|
| 251 |
+
f" F_T = max(0, 1 − Var(R) / Var(T + R))\n"
|
| 252 |
+
f" F_S = max(0, 1 − Var(R) / Var(S + R))"
|
| 253 |
+
)
|
| 254 |
+
|
| 255 |
+
return fig, summary
|
| 256 |
+
|
| 257 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 258 |
+
# Gradio UI
|
| 259 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 260 |
+
|
| 261 |
+
_THEME = gr.themes.Soft(
|
| 262 |
+
primary_hue=gr.themes.Color(
|
| 263 |
+
c50="#fef2f3", c100="#fde6e8", c200="#fbd0d5",
|
| 264 |
+
c300="#f7a4ae", c400="#f17182", c500="#C3142D",
|
| 265 |
+
c600="#b01228", c700="#8B0E1E", c800="#6e0b18",
|
| 266 |
+
c900="#5c0d17", c950="#33040a",
|
| 267 |
+
),
|
| 268 |
+
secondary_hue=gr.themes.Color(
|
| 269 |
+
c50="#fef2f3", c100="#fde6e8", c200="#fbd0d5",
|
| 270 |
+
c300="#f7a4ae", c400="#f17182", c500="#C3142D",
|
| 271 |
+
c600="#b01228", c700="#8B0E1E", c800="#6e0b18",
|
| 272 |
+
c900="#5c0d17", c950="#33040a",
|
| 273 |
+
),
|
| 274 |
+
neutral_hue=gr.themes.Color(
|
| 275 |
+
c50="#EDECE2", c100="#E5E4D9", c200="#DDDCD0",
|
| 276 |
+
c300="#C8C7BC", c400="#A3A299", c500="#858479",
|
| 277 |
+
c600="#6B6A61", c700="#53524B", c800="#3B3A35",
|
| 278 |
+
c900="#252420", c950="#151410",
|
| 279 |
+
),
|
| 280 |
+
font=[gr.themes.GoogleFont("Inter"), "ui-sans-serif", "system-ui", "sans-serif"],
|
| 281 |
+
)
|
| 282 |
+
|
| 283 |
+
_CSS = """
|
| 284 |
+
.gradio-container { max-width: 1280px !important; margin: auto; }
|
| 285 |
+
footer { display: none !important; }
|
| 286 |
+
.gr-button-primary { background: #C3142D !important; border: none !important; }
|
| 287 |
+
.gr-button-primary:hover { background: #8B0E1E !important; }
|
| 288 |
+
.gr-button-secondary { border-color: #C3142D !important; color: #C3142D !important; }
|
| 289 |
+
.gr-button-secondary:hover { background: #8B0E1E !important; color: white !important; }
|
| 290 |
+
.gr-input:focus { border-color: #C3142D !important; box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(195,20,45,0.2) !important; }
|
| 291 |
+
"""
|
| 292 |
+
|
| 293 |
+
|
| 294 |
+
def build_app() -> gr.Blocks:
|
| 295 |
+
with gr.Blocks(title="Decomposition Explorer v1.0") as app:
|
| 296 |
+
gr.HTML("""
|
| 297 |
+
<div style="display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 16px; padding: 16px 24px;
|
| 298 |
+
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #C3142D 0%, #8B0E1E 100%);
|
| 299 |
+
border-radius: 12px; margin-bottom: 16px; box-shadow: 0 4px 12px rgba(0,0,0,0.15);">
|
| 300 |
+
<img src="beveled-m-min-size.png"
|
| 301 |
+
alt="Miami University" style="height: 56px; filter: brightness(0) invert(1);">
|
| 302 |
+
<div>
|
| 303 |
+
<h1 style="margin: 0; color: white; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: -0.5px;">
|
| 304 |
+
Decomposition Explorer v1.0
|
| 305 |
+
</h1>
|
| 306 |
+
<p style="margin: 4px 0 0; color: rgba(255,255,255,0.85); font-size: 14px;">
|
| 307 |
+
ISA 444: Business Forecasting · Farmer School of Business · Miami University
|
| 308 |
+
</p>
|
| 309 |
+
</div>
|
| 310 |
+
</div>
|
| 311 |
+
""")
|
| 312 |
+
|
| 313 |
+
gr.HTML("""
|
| 314 |
+
<div style="background: #EDECE2; border-left: 4px solid #C3142D; padding: 12px 16px;
|
| 315 |
+
border-radius: 0 8px 8px 0; margin-bottom: 16px; font-size: 14px; color: #585E60;">
|
| 316 |
+
Interactive tool for exploring time-series decomposition methods (Classical and STL).
|
| 317 |
+
Choose a built-in dataset or upload your own CSV, adjust decomposition parameters, and
|
| 318 |
+
examine trend, seasonal, and remainder components along with strength measures.
|
| 319 |
+
</div>
|
| 320 |
+
""")
|
| 321 |
+
|
| 322 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
| 323 |
+
# --- Left column: controls ------------------------------------
|
| 324 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=1, min_width=280):
|
| 325 |
+
dataset_dd = gr.Dropdown(
|
| 326 |
+
label="Dataset",
|
| 327 |
+
choices=list(BUILTIN_DATASETS.keys()),
|
| 328 |
+
value="Airline Passengers",
|
| 329 |
+
)
|
| 330 |
+
csv_upload = gr.File(
|
| 331 |
+
label="Or upload CSV (columns: ds, y)",
|
| 332 |
+
file_types=[".csv"],
|
| 333 |
+
type="filepath",
|
| 334 |
+
)
|
| 335 |
+
method_radio = gr.Radio(
|
| 336 |
+
label="Decomposition Method",
|
| 337 |
+
choices=[
|
| 338 |
+
"Classical (Additive)",
|
| 339 |
+
"Classical (Multiplicative)",
|
| 340 |
+
"STL",
|
| 341 |
+
],
|
| 342 |
+
value="STL",
|
| 343 |
+
)
|
| 344 |
+
period_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 345 |
+
label="Period / Season Length",
|
| 346 |
+
minimum=2,
|
| 347 |
+
maximum=52,
|
| 348 |
+
step=1,
|
| 349 |
+
value=12,
|
| 350 |
+
)
|
| 351 |
+
|
| 352 |
+
# STL-specific controls
|
| 353 |
+
stl_group = gr.Group(visible=True)
|
| 354 |
+
with stl_group:
|
| 355 |
+
gr.Markdown("**STL Parameters**")
|
| 356 |
+
stl_seasonal_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 357 |
+
label="seasonal (seasonality window, odd)",
|
| 358 |
+
minimum=7,
|
| 359 |
+
maximum=51,
|
| 360 |
+
step=2,
|
| 361 |
+
value=13,
|
| 362 |
+
)
|
| 363 |
+
stl_trend_slider = gr.Slider(
|
| 364 |
+
label="trend (trend window, odd; 0 = auto)",
|
| 365 |
+
minimum=0,
|
| 366 |
+
maximum=101,
|
| 367 |
+
step=2,
|
| 368 |
+
value=0,
|
| 369 |
+
)
|
| 370 |
+
stl_robust_cb = gr.Checkbox(
|
| 371 |
+
label="robust (robust to outliers)",
|
| 372 |
+
value=False,
|
| 373 |
+
)
|
| 374 |
+
|
| 375 |
+
# --- Right column: output -------------------------------------
|
| 376 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=3):
|
| 377 |
+
plot_output = gr.Plot(label="Decomposition")
|
| 378 |
+
summary_box = gr.Textbox(
|
| 379 |
+
label="Strength Measures",
|
| 380 |
+
lines=5,
|
| 381 |
+
interactive=False,
|
| 382 |
+
)
|
| 383 |
+
|
| 384 |
+
# --- Visibility toggle for STL controls ---------------------------
|
| 385 |
+
def toggle_stl(method):
|
| 386 |
+
return gr.Group(visible=(method == "STL"))
|
| 387 |
+
|
| 388 |
+
method_radio.change(
|
| 389 |
+
fn=toggle_stl,
|
| 390 |
+
inputs=[method_radio],
|
| 391 |
+
outputs=[stl_group],
|
| 392 |
+
)
|
| 393 |
+
|
| 394 |
+
# --- Gather all inputs --------------------------------------------
|
| 395 |
+
all_inputs = [
|
| 396 |
+
dataset_dd,
|
| 397 |
+
csv_upload,
|
| 398 |
+
method_radio,
|
| 399 |
+
period_slider,
|
| 400 |
+
stl_seasonal_slider,
|
| 401 |
+
stl_trend_slider,
|
| 402 |
+
stl_robust_cb,
|
| 403 |
+
]
|
| 404 |
+
all_outputs = [plot_output, summary_box]
|
| 405 |
+
|
| 406 |
+
# --- Wire change events -------------------------------------------
|
| 407 |
+
for ctrl in all_inputs:
|
| 408 |
+
ctrl.change(
|
| 409 |
+
fn=decompose_and_plot,
|
| 410 |
+
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 411 |
+
outputs=all_outputs,
|
| 412 |
+
)
|
| 413 |
+
|
| 414 |
+
# --- Initial load -------------------------------------------------
|
| 415 |
+
app.load(
|
| 416 |
+
fn=decompose_and_plot,
|
| 417 |
+
inputs=all_inputs,
|
| 418 |
+
outputs=all_outputs,
|
| 419 |
+
)
|
| 420 |
+
|
| 421 |
+
gr.HTML("""
|
| 422 |
+
<div style="margin-top: 24px; padding: 16px; background: #EDECE2; border-radius: 8px;
|
| 423 |
+
text-align: center; font-size: 13px; color: #585E60; border-top: 2px solid #C3142D;">
|
| 424 |
+
<div style="margin-bottom: 4px;">
|
| 425 |
+
<strong style="color: #C3142D;">Developed by</strong>
|
| 426 |
+
<a href="https://miamioh.edu/fsb/directory/?up=/directory/megahefm"
|
| 427 |
+
style="color: #C3142D; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600;">
|
| 428 |
+
Fadel M. Megahed
|
| 429 |
+
</a>
|
| 430 |
+
· Gloss Professor of Analytics · Miami University
|
| 431 |
+
</div>
|
| 432 |
+
<div style="font-size: 12px; color: #888;">
|
| 433 |
+
Version 1.0.0 · Spring 2026 ·
|
| 434 |
+
<a href="https://github.com/fmegahed" style="color: #C3142D; text-decoration: none;">GitHub</a> ·
|
| 435 |
+
<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/fmegahed/" style="color: #C3142D; text-decoration: none;">LinkedIn</a>
|
| 436 |
+
</div>
|
| 437 |
+
</div>
|
| 438 |
+
""")
|
| 439 |
+
|
| 440 |
+
return app
|
| 441 |
+
|
| 442 |
+
|
| 443 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 444 |
+
# Entry point
|
| 445 |
+
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 446 |
+
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 447 |
+
demo = build_app()
|
| 448 |
+
demo.launch(theme=_THEME, css=_CSS, ssr_mode=False, allowed_paths=["beveled-m-min-size.png"])
|