Spaces:
Sleeping
Sleeping
changes app
Browse files- src/streamlit_app.py +688 -38
src/streamlit_app.py
CHANGED
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@@ -1,40 +1,690 @@
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import altair as alt
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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import streamlit as st
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Edit `/streamlit_app.py` to customize this app to your heart's desire :heart:.
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If you have any questions, checkout our [documentation](https://docs.streamlit.io) and [community
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forums](https://discuss.streamlit.io).
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In the meantime, below is an example of what you can do with just a few lines of code:
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"""
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num_points = st.slider("Number of points in spiral", 1, 10000, 1100)
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num_turns = st.slider("Number of turns in spiral", 1, 300, 31)
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indices = np.linspace(0, 1, num_points)
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theta = 2 * np.pi * num_turns * indices
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radius = indices
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x = radius * np.cos(theta)
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y = radius * np.sin(theta)
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df = pd.DataFrame({
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"x": x,
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"y": y,
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"idx": indices,
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"rand": np.random.randn(num_points),
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})
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st.altair_chart(alt.Chart(df, height=700, width=700)
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.mark_point(filled=True)
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.encode(
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x=alt.X("x", axis=None),
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y=alt.Y("y", axis=None),
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color=alt.Color("idx", legend=None, scale=alt.Scale()),
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size=alt.Size("rand", legend=None, scale=alt.Scale(range=[1, 150])),
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))
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| 1 |
import streamlit as st
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| 2 |
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import pandas as pd
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import yfinance as yf
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| 4 |
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import plotly.graph_objects as go
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| 5 |
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import plotly.express as px
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| 6 |
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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import numpy as np
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from reportlab.lib.pagesizes import letter
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from reportlab.platypus import SimpleDocTemplate, Table, TableStyle, Paragraph, Spacer
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from reportlab.lib.styles import getSampleStyleSheet
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from reportlab.lib import colors
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import io
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import base64
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from math import erf, sqrt as msqrt
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import os
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# Ensure Streamlit writes to a writable location (fixes permission issues on some hosts like HF Spaces)
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os.environ.setdefault("HOME", "/tmp")
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os.environ.setdefault("XDG_CACHE_HOME", "/tmp")
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os.environ["STREAMLIT_BROWSER_GATHER_USAGE_STATS"] = "false"
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try:
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os.makedirs(os.path.join(os.environ["HOME"], ".streamlit"), exist_ok=True)
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except Exception:
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pass
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| 26 |
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# Page configuration
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st.set_page_config(
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page_title="WhatIfWealth - Backtesting Portfolio",
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| 29 |
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page_icon="๐",
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layout="wide"
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)
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# Title and description
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| 34 |
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st.title("๐ WhatIfWealth - ืกืืืืืฆืืืช ืืฉืงืขื ืจืืจืืืงืืืืืช")
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| 35 |
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st.markdown("""
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ืืคืืืงืฆืื ืื ืืชืื ืืืฆืืขื ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช ืืืกืืืจื ืขื ืืฉืืืื ื-benchmarks
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""")
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# Sidebar for input
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st.sidebar.header("ืืืืจืืช ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช")
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# Date inputs
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| 43 |
+
col1, col2 = st.sidebar.columns(2)
|
| 44 |
+
with col1:
|
| 45 |
+
start_date = st.date_input(
|
| 46 |
+
"ืชืืจืื ืืชืืื",
|
| 47 |
+
value=datetime.now() - timedelta(days=365),
|
| 48 |
+
max_value=datetime.now()
|
| 49 |
+
)
|
| 50 |
+
with col2:
|
| 51 |
+
end_date = st.date_input(
|
| 52 |
+
"ืชืืจืื ืกืืื",
|
| 53 |
+
value=datetime.now(),
|
| 54 |
+
max_value=datetime.now()
|
| 55 |
+
)
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
# Portfolio input
|
| 58 |
+
st.sidebar.subheader("ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช")
|
| 59 |
+
st.sidebar.markdown("ืืื ืก ืื ืืืช ืืืืืื ืืฉืงืขื (ืกืืดื ืฆืจืื ืืืืืช 100%)")
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
# Sample portfolio for demonstration
|
| 62 |
+
sample_portfolio = {
|
| 63 |
+
"AAPL": 30,
|
| 64 |
+
"MSFT": 25,
|
| 65 |
+
"GOOGL": 20,
|
| 66 |
+
"AMZN": 15,
|
| 67 |
+
"TSLA": 10
|
| 68 |
+
}
|
| 69 |
+
|
| 70 |
+
# Portfolio input interface
|
| 71 |
+
portfolio = {}
|
| 72 |
+
total_percentage = 0
|
| 73 |
+
|
| 74 |
+
# Check if optimized portfolio exists in session state
|
| 75 |
+
if 'optimized_portfolio' in st.session_state:
|
| 76 |
+
sample_portfolio = st.session_state.optimized_portfolio
|
| 77 |
+
# Clear the session state after using it
|
| 78 |
+
del st.session_state.optimized_portfolio
|
| 79 |
+
else:
|
| 80 |
+
sample_portfolio = {
|
| 81 |
+
"QQQ": 30,
|
| 82 |
+
"MAGS": 10,
|
| 83 |
+
"XAR": 20,
|
| 84 |
+
"VXUS": 15,
|
| 85 |
+
"SPY": 10,
|
| 86 |
+
"XLV": 15
|
| 87 |
+
}
|
| 88 |
+
|
| 89 |
+
for i, (ticker, percentage) in enumerate(sample_portfolio.items()):
|
| 90 |
+
col1, col2 = st.sidebar.columns([3, 1])
|
| 91 |
+
with col1:
|
| 92 |
+
new_ticker = st.text_input(f"ืื ืื {i+1}", value=ticker, key=f"ticker_{i}")
|
| 93 |
+
with col2:
|
| 94 |
+
new_percentage = st.number_input(f"ืืืื {i+1}", value=percentage, min_value=0, max_value=100, key=f"perc_{i}")
|
| 95 |
+
|
| 96 |
+
if new_ticker and new_percentage > 0:
|
| 97 |
+
portfolio[new_ticker.upper()] = new_percentage
|
| 98 |
+
total_percentage += new_percentage
|
| 99 |
+
|
| 100 |
+
# Add more stocks
|
| 101 |
+
num_additional = st.sidebar.number_input("ืืกืคืจ ืื ืืืช ื ืืกืคืืช", min_value=0, max_value=10, value=0)
|
| 102 |
+
|
| 103 |
+
for i in range(num_additional):
|
| 104 |
+
col1, col2 = st.sidebar.columns([3, 1])
|
| 105 |
+
with col1:
|
| 106 |
+
ticker = st.text_input(f"ืื ืื ื ืืกืคืช {i+1}", key=f"add_ticker_{i}")
|
| 107 |
+
with col2:
|
| 108 |
+
percentage = st.number_input(f"ืืืื {i+1}", min_value=0, max_value=100, key=f"add_perc_{i}")
|
| 109 |
+
|
| 110 |
+
if ticker and percentage > 0:
|
| 111 |
+
portfolio[ticker.upper()] = percentage
|
| 112 |
+
total_percentage += percentage
|
| 113 |
+
|
| 114 |
+
# Display total percentage
|
| 115 |
+
st.sidebar.markdown(f"**ืกืืดื ืืืืืื: {total_percentage}%**")
|
| 116 |
+
|
| 117 |
+
if total_percentage != 100:
|
| 118 |
+
st.sidebar.warning(f"ืกืืดื ืืืืืืื ืฆืจืื ืืืืืช 100%. ืืจืืข: {total_percentage}%")
|
| 119 |
+
|
| 120 |
+
# Benchmark selection
|
| 121 |
+
st.sidebar.subheader("Benchmark ืืืฉืืืื")
|
| 122 |
+
benchmark = st.sidebar.selectbox(
|
| 123 |
+
"ืืืจ benchmark",
|
| 124 |
+
["SPY", "QQQ", "IWM", "TLT", "GLD", "BTC-USD"],
|
| 125 |
+
help="SPY = S&P 500, QQQ = NASDAQ, IWM = Russell 2000, TLT = Treasury Bonds, GLD = Gold, BTC-USD = Bitcoin"
|
| 126 |
+
)
|
| 127 |
+
|
| 128 |
+
# Safety slider: user's confidence not to lose money in alternative portfolios
|
| 129 |
+
st.sidebar.subheader("ืจืืช ืืืืืื ืฉืื ืืคืกืื ืืกืฃ (ืชืืงืื ืืืืคืืื)")
|
| 130 |
+
safety_level = st.sidebar.slider(
|
| 131 |
+
"safety",
|
| 132 |
+
min_value=0,
|
| 133 |
+
max_value=100,
|
| 134 |
+
value=50,
|
| 135 |
+
help="0 = ืื ืืืคืช ืื ืืืคืกืื, 100 = ืืืืืื ืืื ืฉืื ืืคืกืื"
|
| 136 |
+
)
|
| 137 |
+
|
| 138 |
+
# Lock specific tickers for alternative suggestions
|
| 139 |
+
st.sidebar.subheader("ื ืขืืื: ืื ืชืฉื ื ืืืืืื ืืื ืืืช ืื ืืืจืืช")
|
| 140 |
+
locked_tickers = st.sidebar.multiselect(
|
| 141 |
+
"ืืืจ ืื ืืืช ืื ืขืืื",
|
| 142 |
+
options=list(portfolio.keys()),
|
| 143 |
+
help="ืืื ืืืช ืฉื ืืืจื ืืฉืืจื ืขื ืืืื ืืืฉืงืขื ืื ืืืื ืืืืคืืืืืืฆืื"
|
| 144 |
+
)
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
+
# Instructions
|
| 147 |
+
with st.expander("ืืืจืืืช ืฉืืืืฉ"):
|
| 148 |
+
st.markdown("""
|
| 149 |
+
### ืืื ืืืฉืชืืฉ ืืืคืืืงืฆืื:
|
| 150 |
+
|
| 151 |
+
1. **ืืืืจ ืชืืจืืืื**: ืืืจ ืชืืจืื ืืชืืื ืืกืืื ืื ืืชืื
|
| 152 |
+
2. **ืืื ืก ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช**: ืืืกืฃ ืื ืืืช ืืืืืื ืืฉืงืขื (ืกืืดื 100%)
|
| 153 |
+
3. **ืืืจ Benchmark**: ืืืจ ืืื ืืืฉืืืื (SPY, QQQ, ืืืืณ)
|
| 154 |
+
4. **ืืจืฅ ื ืืชืื**: ืืืฅ ืขื ืืคืชืืจ "ืืจืฅ ื ืืชืื"
|
| 155 |
+
5. **ืืฆืข ืฉืืืื ืืืฉ**: ืืืฅ ืขื "ืืฆืข ืฉืืืื ืืืฉ" ืืงืืืช ืืืคืืืืืืฆืื
|
| 156 |
+
6. **ืฆืคื ืืชืืฆืืืช**: ืืจืคืื, ืืืื ืืืฆืืข, ืืืฉืืืืืช
|
| 157 |
+
7. **ืืืฆื ืืื**: ืืืจื ืืื PDF ืืคืืจื
|
| 158 |
+
|
| 159 |
+
### ืืืื ืืืฆืืข:
|
| 160 |
+
- **ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช**: ืืจืืื/ืืคืกื ืืืืื ืืชืงืืคื
|
| 161 |
+
- **ืชืฉืืื ืฉื ืชืืช**: ืชื ืืืชืืืช ืฉื ืชืืช
|
| 162 |
+
- **Sharpe Ratio**: ืืืก ืชืฉืืื ืืกืืืื
|
| 163 |
+
- **Max Drawdown**: ืืืจืืื ืืืงืกืืืืืช ืืืฉืื
|
| 164 |
+
|
| 165 |
+
### ืืืคืืืืืืฆืื:
|
| 166 |
+
- ** ื ืืืงืื 5,000 ืฉืื ืืืื ืืงืจืืืื ืืชืืง, ืืื ืืืกืคืช ืจืืืืื ืืืฉืื
|
| 167 |
+
- **Sharpe Ratio**: ืงืจืืืจืืื ืจืืฉื (70%)
|
| 168 |
+
- **ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช**: ืงืจืืืจืืื ืืฉื ื (30%)
|
| 169 |
+
- **ืื ืืืช ืืืื ืืช**: ืชืืง ื ืืืื + ืจืืืื benchmark
|
| 170 |
+
""")
|
| 171 |
+
|
| 172 |
+
|
| 173 |
+
# Run analysis button
|
| 174 |
+
run_analysis = st.sidebar.button("ืืจืฅ ื ืืชืื", type="primary")
|
| 175 |
+
|
| 176 |
+
# Suggest new combination button
|
| 177 |
+
suggest_combination = st.sidebar.button("ืืฆืข ืฉืืืื ืืืฉ", type="secondary")
|
| 178 |
+
|
| 179 |
+
if run_analysis and portfolio and total_percentage == 100:
|
| 180 |
+
with st.spinner("ืืืฉื ืืืฆืืขื ืชืืง..."):
|
| 181 |
+
|
| 182 |
+
# Fetch historical data
|
| 183 |
+
@st.cache_data
|
| 184 |
+
def fetch_data(tickers, start, end):
|
| 185 |
+
data = {}
|
| 186 |
+
for ticker in tickers:
|
| 187 |
+
try:
|
| 188 |
+
stock = yf.Ticker(ticker)
|
| 189 |
+
hist = stock.history(start=start, end=end)
|
| 190 |
+
if not hist.empty:
|
| 191 |
+
data[ticker] = hist['Close']
|
| 192 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 193 |
+
st.error(f"ืฉืืืื ืืืขืื ืช {ticker}: {e}")
|
| 194 |
+
return data
|
| 195 |
+
|
| 196 |
+
# Get portfolio and benchmark data
|
| 197 |
+
portfolio_data = fetch_data(list(portfolio.keys()), start_date, end_date)
|
| 198 |
+
benchmark_data = fetch_data([benchmark], start_date, end_date)
|
| 199 |
+
|
| 200 |
+
if portfolio_data and benchmark_data:
|
| 201 |
+
|
| 202 |
+
# Calculate portfolio returns
|
| 203 |
+
portfolio_df = pd.DataFrame(portfolio_data)
|
| 204 |
+
portfolio_df = portfolio_df.fillna(method='ffill')
|
| 205 |
+
|
| 206 |
+
# Calculate weighted returns
|
| 207 |
+
weights = np.array(list(portfolio.values())) / 100
|
| 208 |
+
portfolio_returns = portfolio_df.pct_change().dropna()
|
| 209 |
+
weighted_returns = (portfolio_returns * weights).sum(axis=1)
|
| 210 |
+
|
| 211 |
+
# Calculate cumulative returns
|
| 212 |
+
cumulative_returns = (1 + weighted_returns).cumprod()
|
| 213 |
+
|
| 214 |
+
# Benchmark returns
|
| 215 |
+
benchmark_returns = benchmark_data[benchmark].pct_change().dropna()
|
| 216 |
+
benchmark_cumulative = (1 + benchmark_returns).cumprod()
|
| 217 |
+
|
| 218 |
+
# Performance metrics
|
| 219 |
+
total_return = (cumulative_returns.iloc[-1] - 1) * 100
|
| 220 |
+
benchmark_total_return = (benchmark_cumulative.iloc[-1] - 1) * 100
|
| 221 |
+
|
| 222 |
+
# Volatility (annualized)
|
| 223 |
+
volatility = weighted_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252) * 100
|
| 224 |
+
benchmark_volatility = benchmark_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252) * 100
|
| 225 |
+
|
| 226 |
+
# Sharpe ratio (assuming risk-free rate of 2%)
|
| 227 |
+
risk_free_rate = 0.02
|
| 228 |
+
sharpe_ratio = (weighted_returns.mean() * 252 - risk_free_rate) / (weighted_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252))
|
| 229 |
+
benchmark_sharpe = (benchmark_returns.mean() * 252 - risk_free_rate) / (benchmark_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252))
|
| 230 |
+
|
| 231 |
+
# Maximum drawdown
|
| 232 |
+
rolling_max = cumulative_returns.expanding().max()
|
| 233 |
+
drawdown = (cumulative_returns - rolling_max) / rolling_max
|
| 234 |
+
max_drawdown = drawdown.min() * 100
|
| 235 |
+
|
| 236 |
+
benchmark_rolling_max = benchmark_cumulative.expanding().max()
|
| 237 |
+
benchmark_drawdown = (benchmark_cumulative - benchmark_rolling_max) / benchmark_rolling_max
|
| 238 |
+
benchmark_max_drawdown = benchmark_drawdown.min() * 100
|
| 239 |
+
|
| 240 |
+
# Probability of not losing money over selected period
|
| 241 |
+
log_returns_main = np.log1p(weighted_returns)
|
| 242 |
+
trading_days_main = len(log_returns_main)
|
| 243 |
+
mu_log_main = log_returns_main.mean()
|
| 244 |
+
sigma_log_main = log_returns_main.std()
|
| 245 |
+
if sigma_log_main == 0:
|
| 246 |
+
p_no_loss_main = 1.0 if mu_log_main > 0 else 0.0
|
| 247 |
+
else:
|
| 248 |
+
mean_sum_main = mu_log_main * trading_days_main
|
| 249 |
+
std_sum_main = sigma_log_main * np.sqrt(trading_days_main)
|
| 250 |
+
z_main = (0 - mean_sum_main) / std_sum_main
|
| 251 |
+
cdf_main = 0.5 * (1 + erf(z_main / msqrt(2)))
|
| 252 |
+
p_no_loss_main = 1 - cdf_main
|
| 253 |
+
|
| 254 |
+
# Display results
|
| 255 |
+
st.header("๐ ืชืืฆืืืช ืื ืืชืื")
|
| 256 |
+
|
| 257 |
+
# Performance comparison
|
| 258 |
+
col1, col2, col3, col4, col5 = st.columns(5)
|
| 259 |
+
|
| 260 |
+
with col1:
|
| 261 |
+
st.metric("ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช", f"{total_return:.2f}%", f"{total_return - benchmark_total_return:.2f}%")
|
| 262 |
+
|
| 263 |
+
with col2:
|
| 264 |
+
st.metric("ืชืฉืืื ืฉื ืชืืช", f"{volatility:.2f}%", f"{volatility - benchmark_volatility:.2f}%")
|
| 265 |
+
|
| 266 |
+
with col3:
|
| 267 |
+
st.metric("Sharpe Ratio", f"{sharpe_ratio:.2f}", f"{sharpe_ratio - benchmark_sharpe:.2f}")
|
| 268 |
+
|
| 269 |
+
with col4:
|
| 270 |
+
st.metric("Max Drawdown", f"{max_drawdown:.2f}%", f"{max_drawdown - benchmark_max_drawdown:.2f}%")
|
| 271 |
+
with col5:
|
| 272 |
+
st.metric("ืกืืืื ืื ืืืคืกืื", f"{p_no_loss_main*100:.1f}%")
|
| 273 |
+
if p_no_loss_main * 100 < safety_level:
|
| 274 |
+
st.warning(f"ืจืืช ืืืืืืื ืืืืฉืืช ({p_no_loss_main*100:.1f}%) ื ืืืื ืืืกืฃ ืฉื ืืืจ ({safety_level}%). ืฉืงืื ืืฉื ืืช ืืงืฆืืืช ืื ืืืคืืืช ืกืืืื.")
|
| 275 |
+
|
| 276 |
+
# Portfolio composition
|
| 277 |
+
st.subheader("ืืจืื ืืชืืง")
|
| 278 |
+
portfolio_df_display = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 279 |
+
'ืื ืื': list(portfolio.keys()),
|
| 280 |
+
'ืืืื ืืฉืงืขื': list(portfolio.values()),
|
| 281 |
+
'ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช': [((portfolio_df[ticker].iloc[-1] / portfolio_df[ticker].iloc[0]) - 1) * 100
|
| 282 |
+
for ticker in portfolio.keys()]
|
| 283 |
+
})
|
| 284 |
+
st.dataframe(portfolio_df_display, use_container_width=True)
|
| 285 |
+
|
| 286 |
+
# Performance chart
|
| 287 |
+
st.subheader("ืืจืฃ ืืืฆืืขืื")
|
| 288 |
+
|
| 289 |
+
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 290 |
+
|
| 291 |
+
# Portfolio line
|
| 292 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 293 |
+
x=cumulative_returns.index,
|
| 294 |
+
y=cumulative_returns.values * 100,
|
| 295 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 296 |
+
name='ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช',
|
| 297 |
+
line=dict(color='blue', width=2)
|
| 298 |
+
))
|
| 299 |
+
|
| 300 |
+
# Benchmark line
|
| 301 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 302 |
+
x=benchmark_cumulative.index,
|
| 303 |
+
y=benchmark_cumulative.values * 100,
|
| 304 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 305 |
+
name=f'Benchmark ({benchmark})',
|
| 306 |
+
line=dict(color='red', width=2)
|
| 307 |
+
))
|
| 308 |
+
|
| 309 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 310 |
+
title="ืืฉืืืืช ืืืฆืืขืื",
|
| 311 |
+
xaxis_title="ืชืืจืื",
|
| 312 |
+
yaxis_title="ืชืฉืืื ืืฆืืืจืช (%)",
|
| 313 |
+
hovermode='x unified'
|
| 314 |
+
)
|
| 315 |
+
|
| 316 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
|
| 317 |
+
|
| 318 |
+
# Drawdown chart
|
| 319 |
+
st.subheader("ืืจืฃ Drawdown")
|
| 320 |
+
|
| 321 |
+
fig_dd = go.Figure()
|
| 322 |
+
|
| 323 |
+
fig_dd.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 324 |
+
x=drawdown.index,
|
| 325 |
+
y=drawdown.values * 100,
|
| 326 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 327 |
+
name='ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช',
|
| 328 |
+
fill='tonexty',
|
| 329 |
+
line=dict(color='blue')
|
| 330 |
+
))
|
| 331 |
+
|
| 332 |
+
fig_dd.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 333 |
+
x=benchmark_drawdown.index,
|
| 334 |
+
y=benchmark_drawdown.values * 100,
|
| 335 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 336 |
+
name=f'Benchmark ({benchmark})',
|
| 337 |
+
fill='tonexty',
|
| 338 |
+
line=dict(color='red')
|
| 339 |
+
))
|
| 340 |
+
|
| 341 |
+
fig_dd.update_layout(
|
| 342 |
+
title="Drawdown ืืืืจื ืืื",
|
| 343 |
+
xaxis_title="ืชืืจืื",
|
| 344 |
+
yaxis_title="Drawdown (%)",
|
| 345 |
+
hovermode='x unified'
|
| 346 |
+
)
|
| 347 |
+
|
| 348 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig_dd, use_container_width=True)
|
| 349 |
+
|
| 350 |
+
# Detailed metrics table
|
| 351 |
+
st.subheader("ืืืื ืืืฆืืข ืืคืืจืืื")
|
| 352 |
+
|
| 353 |
+
metrics_df = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 354 |
+
'ืืื': ['ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช', 'ืชืฉืืื ืฉื ืชืืช', 'Sharpe Ratio', 'Max Drawdown', 'Beta'],
|
| 355 |
+
'ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช': [f"{total_return:.2f}%", f"{volatility:.2f}%", f"{sharpe_ratio:.2f}", f"{max_drawdown:.2f}%", "N/A"],
|
| 356 |
+
f'Benchmark ({benchmark})': [f"{benchmark_total_return:.2f}%", f"{benchmark_volatility:.2f}%", f"{benchmark_sharpe:.2f}", f"{benchmark_max_drawdown:.2f}%", "1.00"],
|
| 357 |
+
'ืืคืจืฉ': [f"{total_return - benchmark_total_return:.2f}%", f"{volatility - benchmark_volatility:.2f}%", f"{sharpe_ratio - benchmark_sharpe:.2f}", f"{max_drawdown - benchmark_max_drawdown:.2f}%", "N/A"]
|
| 358 |
+
})
|
| 359 |
+
|
| 360 |
+
st.dataframe(metrics_df, use_container_width=True)
|
| 361 |
+
|
| 362 |
+
# Additional comparative analyses: 5, 10, 15, 20 years (portfolio vs benchmark)
|
| 363 |
+
st.subheader("ื ืืชืืืื ื ืืกืคืื: ืืฉืืืืช ืชืืง ืืื Benchmark (5/10/15/20 ืฉื ืื)")
|
| 364 |
+
compare_periods = {
|
| 365 |
+
'5 ืฉื ืื': 1260,
|
| 366 |
+
'10 ืฉื ืื': 2520,
|
| 367 |
+
'15 ืฉื ืื': 3780,
|
| 368 |
+
'20 ืฉื ืื': 5040
|
| 369 |
+
}
|
| 370 |
+
for label_ep, days_ep in compare_periods.items():
|
| 371 |
+
ep_end = pd.Timestamp(end_date)
|
| 372 |
+
ep_start = ep_end - pd.Timedelta(days=days_ep)
|
| 373 |
+
# fetch data
|
| 374 |
+
ep_portfolio_data = fetch_data(list(portfolio.keys()), ep_start, ep_end)
|
| 375 |
+
ep_bench_data = fetch_data([benchmark], ep_start, ep_end)
|
| 376 |
+
if not ep_portfolio_data or not ep_bench_data:
|
| 377 |
+
st.info(f"{label_ep}: ืืื ืืกืคืืง ื ืชืื ืื ืืื ืืจืืืืื.")
|
| 378 |
+
continue
|
| 379 |
+
# Portfolio metrics
|
| 380 |
+
ep_df = pd.DataFrame(ep_portfolio_data).fillna(method='ffill')
|
| 381 |
+
ep_returns = ep_df.pct_change().dropna()
|
| 382 |
+
if ep_returns.empty:
|
| 383 |
+
st.info(f"{label_ep}: ืืื ื ืชืื ื ืชืฉืืืืช ืชืงืคืื ืืชืืง.")
|
| 384 |
+
continue
|
| 385 |
+
ep_weights = np.array(list(portfolio.values())) / 100
|
| 386 |
+
if ep_returns.shape[1] != len(ep_weights):
|
| 387 |
+
try:
|
| 388 |
+
ep_df_aligned = ep_df[list(portfolio.keys())]
|
| 389 |
+
ep_returns = ep_df_aligned.pct_change().dropna()
|
| 390 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 391 |
+
st.info(f"{label_ep}: ืื ืืชืืื ืืื ืืฉืงืืืืช ืืขืืืืืช ื ืชืื ืื.")
|
| 392 |
+
continue
|
| 393 |
+
ep_port_ret = (ep_returns * ep_weights).sum(axis=1)
|
| 394 |
+
ep_cum = (1 + ep_port_ret).cumprod()
|
| 395 |
+
ep_total_return = (ep_cum.iloc[-1] - 1) * 100
|
| 396 |
+
ep_vol = ep_port_ret.std() * np.sqrt(252) * 100
|
| 397 |
+
ep_sharpe = (ep_port_ret.mean() * 252 - risk_free_rate) / (ep_port_ret.std() * np.sqrt(252))
|
| 398 |
+
ep_log = np.log1p(ep_port_ret)
|
| 399 |
+
ep_t = len(ep_log)
|
| 400 |
+
mu_ep = ep_log.mean()
|
| 401 |
+
sig_ep = ep_log.std()
|
| 402 |
+
if sig_ep == 0:
|
| 403 |
+
p_no_loss_ep = 1.0 if mu_ep > 0 else 0.0
|
| 404 |
+
else:
|
| 405 |
+
mean_sum_ep = mu_ep * ep_t
|
| 406 |
+
std_sum_ep = sig_ep * np.sqrt(ep_t)
|
| 407 |
+
z_ep = (0 - mean_sum_ep) / std_sum_ep
|
| 408 |
+
cdf_ep = 0.5 * (1 + erf(z_ep / msqrt(2)))
|
| 409 |
+
p_no_loss_ep = 1 - cdf_ep
|
| 410 |
+
# Benchmark metrics
|
| 411 |
+
ep_bench_series = pd.Series(ep_bench_data[benchmark]).dropna()
|
| 412 |
+
ep_bench_ret = ep_bench_series.pct_change().dropna()
|
| 413 |
+
if ep_bench_ret.empty:
|
| 414 |
+
st.info(f"{label_ep}: ืืื ื ืชืื ื ืชืฉืืืืช ืชืงืคืื ื-Benchmark.")
|
| 415 |
+
continue
|
| 416 |
+
ep_bench_cum = (1 + ep_bench_ret).cumprod()
|
| 417 |
+
ep_bench_total_return = (ep_bench_cum.iloc[-1] - 1) * 100
|
| 418 |
+
ep_bench_vol = ep_bench_ret.std() * np.sqrt(252) * 100
|
| 419 |
+
ep_bench_sharpe = (ep_bench_ret.mean() * 252 - risk_free_rate) / (ep_bench_ret.std() * np.sqrt(252))
|
| 420 |
+
ep_bench_log = np.log1p(ep_bench_ret)
|
| 421 |
+
ep_bt = len(ep_bench_log)
|
| 422 |
+
mu_b = ep_bench_log.mean()
|
| 423 |
+
sig_b = ep_bench_log.std()
|
| 424 |
+
if sig_b == 0:
|
| 425 |
+
p_no_loss_bench = 1.0 if mu_b > 0 else 0.0
|
| 426 |
+
else:
|
| 427 |
+
mean_sum_b = mu_b * ep_bt
|
| 428 |
+
std_sum_b = sig_b * np.sqrt(ep_bt)
|
| 429 |
+
z_b = (0 - mean_sum_b) / std_sum_b
|
| 430 |
+
cdf_b = 0.5 * (1 + erf(z_b / msqrt(2)))
|
| 431 |
+
p_no_loss_bench = 1 - cdf_b
|
| 432 |
+
# Display side-by-side
|
| 433 |
+
st.markdown(f"**{label_ep}**")
|
| 434 |
+
c1, c2, c3, c4, c5 = st.columns(5)
|
| 435 |
+
with c1:
|
| 436 |
+
st.markdown("**ืืื**")
|
| 437 |
+
st.write("ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช")
|
| 438 |
+
st.write("Sharpe Ratio")
|
| 439 |
+
st.write("ืชื ืืืชืืืช")
|
| 440 |
+
st.write("ืกืืืื ืื ืืืคืกืื")
|
| 441 |
+
with c2:
|
| 442 |
+
st.markdown("**ืชืืง**")
|
| 443 |
+
st.write(f"{ep_total_return:.2f}%")
|
| 444 |
+
st.write(f"{ep_sharpe:.2f}")
|
| 445 |
+
st.write(f"{ep_vol:.2f}%")
|
| 446 |
+
st.write(f"{p_no_loss_ep*100:.1f}%")
|
| 447 |
+
with c3:
|
| 448 |
+
st.markdown("**Benchmark**")
|
| 449 |
+
st.write(f"{ep_bench_total_return:.2f}%")
|
| 450 |
+
st.write(f"{ep_bench_sharpe:.2f}")
|
| 451 |
+
st.write(f"{ep_bench_vol:.2f}%")
|
| 452 |
+
st.write(f"{p_no_loss_bench*100:.1f}%")
|
| 453 |
+
with c4:
|
| 454 |
+
st.markdown("**ืืคืจืฉ (ืชืืง - Benchmark)**")
|
| 455 |
+
st.write(f"{ep_total_return - ep_bench_total_return:.2f}%")
|
| 456 |
+
st.write(f"{ep_sharpe - ep_bench_sharpe:.2f}")
|
| 457 |
+
st.write(f"{ep_vol - ep_bench_vol:.2f}%")
|
| 458 |
+
st.write(f"{(p_no_loss_ep - p_no_loss_bench)*100:.1f}%")
|
| 459 |
+
with c5:
|
| 460 |
+
st.empty()
|
| 461 |
+
|
| 462 |
+
# PDF Export
|
| 463 |
+
st.subheader("ืืืฆืื PDF")
|
| 464 |
+
|
| 465 |
+
def generate_pdf():
|
| 466 |
+
buffer = io.BytesIO()
|
| 467 |
+
doc = SimpleDocTemplate(buffer, pagesize=letter)
|
| 468 |
+
story = []
|
| 469 |
+
|
| 470 |
+
# Title
|
| 471 |
+
styles = getSampleStyleSheet()
|
| 472 |
+
title = Paragraph("ืืื ืืืฆืืขื ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช - WhatIfWealth", styles['Title'])
|
| 473 |
+
story.append(title)
|
| 474 |
+
story.append(Spacer(1, 12))
|
| 475 |
+
|
| 476 |
+
# Summary
|
| 477 |
+
summary = Paragraph(f"""
|
| 478 |
+
<b>ืกืืืื:</b><br/>
|
| 479 |
+
ืชืืจืื ืืชืืื: {start_date}<br/>
|
| 480 |
+
ืชืืจืื ืกืืื: {end_date}<br/>
|
| 481 |
+
ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช: {total_return:.2f}%<br/>
|
| 482 |
+
Benchmark: {benchmark} ({benchmark_total_return:.2f}%)<br/>
|
| 483 |
+
""", styles['Normal'])
|
| 484 |
+
story.append(summary)
|
| 485 |
+
story.append(Spacer(1, 12))
|
| 486 |
+
|
| 487 |
+
# Portfolio composition
|
| 488 |
+
story.append(Paragraph("<b>ืืจืื ืืชืืง:</b>", styles['Heading2']))
|
| 489 |
+
portfolio_data_for_table = [['ืื ืื', 'ืืืื ืืฉืงืขื', 'ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช']]
|
| 490 |
+
for ticker, weight in portfolio.items():
|
| 491 |
+
ticker_return = ((portfolio_df[ticker].iloc[-1] / portfolio_df[ticker].iloc[0]) - 1) * 100
|
| 492 |
+
portfolio_data_for_table.append([ticker, f"{weight}%", f"{ticker_return:.2f}%"])
|
| 493 |
+
|
| 494 |
+
portfolio_table = Table(portfolio_data_for_table)
|
| 495 |
+
portfolio_table.setStyle(TableStyle([
|
| 496 |
+
('BACKGROUND', (0, 0), (-1, 0), colors.grey),
|
| 497 |
+
('TEXTCOLOR', (0, 0), (-1, 0), colors.whitesmoke),
|
| 498 |
+
('ALIGN', (0, 0), (-1, -1), 'CENTER'),
|
| 499 |
+
('FONTNAME', (0, 0), (-1, 0), 'Helvetica-Bold'),
|
| 500 |
+
('FONTSIZE', (0, 0), (-1, 0), 14),
|
| 501 |
+
('BOTTOMPADDING', (0, 0), (-1, 0), 12),
|
| 502 |
+
('BACKGROUND', (0, 1), (-1, -1), colors.beige),
|
| 503 |
+
('GRID', (0, 0), (-1, -1), 1, colors.black)
|
| 504 |
+
]))
|
| 505 |
+
story.append(portfolio_table)
|
| 506 |
+
story.append(Spacer(1, 12))
|
| 507 |
+
|
| 508 |
+
# Performance metrics
|
| 509 |
+
story.append(Paragraph("<b>ืืืื ืืืฆืืข:</b>", styles['Heading2']))
|
| 510 |
+
metrics_data_for_table = [['ืืื', 'ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช', f'Benchmark ({benchmark})', 'ืืคืจืฉ']]
|
| 511 |
+
metrics_data_for_table.extend([
|
| 512 |
+
['ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช', f"{total_return:.2f}%", f"{benchmark_total_return:.2f}%", f"{total_return - benchmark_total_return:.2f}%"],
|
| 513 |
+
['ืชืฉืืื ืฉื ืชืืช', f"{volatility:.2f}%", f"{benchmark_volatility:.2f}%", f"{volatility - benchmark_volatility:.2f}%"],
|
| 514 |
+
['Sharpe Ratio', f"{sharpe_ratio:.2f}", f"{benchmark_sharpe:.2f}", f"{sharpe_ratio - benchmark_sharpe:.2f}"],
|
| 515 |
+
['Max Drawdown', f"{max_drawdown:.2f}%", f"{benchmark_max_drawdown:.2f}%", f"{max_drawdown - benchmark_max_drawdown:.2f}%"]
|
| 516 |
+
])
|
| 517 |
+
|
| 518 |
+
metrics_table = Table(metrics_data_for_table)
|
| 519 |
+
metrics_table.setStyle(TableStyle([
|
| 520 |
+
('BACKGROUND', (0, 0), (-1, 0), colors.grey),
|
| 521 |
+
('TEXTCOLOR', (0, 0), (-1, 0), colors.whitesmoke),
|
| 522 |
+
('ALIGN', (0, 0), (-1, -1), 'CENTER'),
|
| 523 |
+
('FONTNAME', (0, 0), (-1, 0), 'Helvetica-Bold'),
|
| 524 |
+
('FONTSIZE', (0, 0), (-1, 0), 14),
|
| 525 |
+
('BOTTOMPADDING', (0, 0), (-1, 0), 12),
|
| 526 |
+
('BACKGROUND', (0, 1), (-1, -1), colors.beige),
|
| 527 |
+
('GRID', (0, 0), (-1, -1), 1, colors.black)
|
| 528 |
+
]))
|
| 529 |
+
story.append(metrics_table)
|
| 530 |
+
|
| 531 |
+
doc.build(story)
|
| 532 |
+
buffer.seek(0)
|
| 533 |
+
return buffer
|
| 534 |
+
|
| 535 |
+
pdf_buffer = generate_pdf()
|
| 536 |
+
st.download_button(
|
| 537 |
+
label="ืืืจื ืืื PDF",
|
| 538 |
+
data=pdf_buffer.getvalue(),
|
| 539 |
+
file_name=f"portfolio_analysis_{start_date}_{end_date}.pdf",
|
| 540 |
+
mime="application/pdf"
|
| 541 |
+
)
|
| 542 |
+
|
| 543 |
+
elif run_analysis:
|
| 544 |
+
if not portfolio:
|
| 545 |
+
st.error("ืื ื ืืื ืก ืืคืืืช ืื ืื ืืืช")
|
| 546 |
+
elif total_percentage != 100:
|
| 547 |
+
st.error(f"ืกืืดื ืืืืืืื ืฆืจืื ืืืืืช 100%. ืืจืืข: {total_percentage}%")
|
| 548 |
+
|
| 549 |
+
# Portfolio optimization section
|
| 550 |
+
if suggest_combination and portfolio and total_percentage == 100:
|
| 551 |
+
with st.spinner("ืืืคืฉ ืฉืืืืืื ืืืคืืืืืืื ืืชืงืืคืืช ืฉืื ืืช..."):
|
| 552 |
+
periods = {
|
| 553 |
+
'3 ืืืืฉืื': 63, # ~63 trading days
|
| 554 |
+
'6 ืืืืฉืื': 126, # ~126 trading days
|
| 555 |
+
'1 ืฉื ื': 252, # ~252 trading days
|
| 556 |
+
'2 ืฉื ืื': 504, # ~504 trading days
|
| 557 |
+
'5 ืฉื ืื': 1260, # ~1260 trading days
|
| 558 |
+
'10 ืฉื ืื': 2520, # ~2520 trading days
|
| 559 |
+
'15 ืฉื ืื': 3780 # ~3780 trading days
|
| 560 |
+
}
|
| 561 |
+
results = {}
|
| 562 |
+
for label, days in periods.items():
|
| 563 |
+
# Limit the date range for each period
|
| 564 |
+
period_end = pd.Timestamp(end_date)
|
| 565 |
+
period_start = period_end - pd.Timedelta(days=days)
|
| 566 |
+
# Fetch data for user stocks only
|
| 567 |
+
@st.cache_data
|
| 568 |
+
def fetch_period_data(stocks, start, end):
|
| 569 |
+
data = {}
|
| 570 |
+
for stock in stocks:
|
| 571 |
+
try:
|
| 572 |
+
ticker = yf.Ticker(stock)
|
| 573 |
+
hist = ticker.history(start=start, end=end)
|
| 574 |
+
if not hist.empty:
|
| 575 |
+
data[stock] = hist['Close']
|
| 576 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 577 |
+
continue
|
| 578 |
+
return data
|
| 579 |
+
period_data = fetch_period_data(list(portfolio.keys()), period_start, period_end)
|
| 580 |
+
if len(period_data) < 2:
|
| 581 |
+
continue
|
| 582 |
+
returns_df = pd.DataFrame(period_data).pct_change().dropna()
|
| 583 |
+
best_score = -999
|
| 584 |
+
best_portfolio = None
|
| 585 |
+
best_metrics = None
|
| 586 |
+
trading_days = len(returns_df)
|
| 587 |
+
# Build baseline weights vector aligned to available columns and normalized to 100
|
| 588 |
+
cols = list(returns_df.columns)
|
| 589 |
+
baseline_raw = np.array([portfolio.get(sym, 0) for sym in cols], dtype=float)
|
| 590 |
+
baseline_sum = baseline_raw.sum()
|
| 591 |
+
if baseline_sum == 0:
|
| 592 |
+
baseline_weights = np.zeros_like(baseline_raw)
|
| 593 |
+
else:
|
| 594 |
+
baseline_weights = baseline_raw / baseline_sum * 100
|
| 595 |
+
# Build locking mask aligned to available columns
|
| 596 |
+
locked_mask = np.array([1 if sym in locked_tickers else 0 for sym in cols], dtype=int)
|
| 597 |
+
locked_weights = baseline_weights * locked_mask
|
| 598 |
+
locked_total = locked_weights.sum()
|
| 599 |
+
all_locked = int((locked_mask == 1).all())
|
| 600 |
+
for i in range(5000):
|
| 601 |
+
if all_locked:
|
| 602 |
+
# No suggestion possible if everything is locked
|
| 603 |
+
continue
|
| 604 |
+
# Randomize only the unlocked portion and normalize to remaining budget
|
| 605 |
+
rand = np.random.random(len(cols))
|
| 606 |
+
rand = rand * (1 - locked_mask) # zero for locked
|
| 607 |
+
if rand.sum() == 0:
|
| 608 |
+
# if random produced zeros for all unlocked, try again
|
| 609 |
+
continue
|
| 610 |
+
rand = rand / rand.sum() * max(0.0, 100.0 - locked_total)
|
| 611 |
+
weights = locked_weights + rand
|
| 612 |
+
portfolio_returns = (returns_df * (weights / 100)).sum(axis=1)
|
| 613 |
+
risk_free_rate = 0.02
|
| 614 |
+
sharpe = (portfolio_returns.mean() * 252 - risk_free_rate) / (portfolio_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252))
|
| 615 |
+
total_return = ((1 + portfolio_returns).cumprod().iloc[-1] - 1) * 100
|
| 616 |
+
volatility = portfolio_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252) * 100
|
| 617 |
+
cumulative = (1 + portfolio_returns).cumprod()
|
| 618 |
+
rolling_max = cumulative.expanding().max()
|
| 619 |
+
drawdown = (cumulative - rolling_max) / rolling_max
|
| 620 |
+
max_dd = drawdown.min() * 100
|
| 621 |
+
# Estimate probability of not losing money over the period using normal approximation on log-returns
|
| 622 |
+
log_returns = np.log1p(portfolio_returns)
|
| 623 |
+
mu_log = log_returns.mean()
|
| 624 |
+
sigma_log = log_returns.std()
|
| 625 |
+
if sigma_log == 0:
|
| 626 |
+
p_no_loss = 1.0 if mu_log > 0 else 0.0
|
| 627 |
+
else:
|
| 628 |
+
mean_sum = mu_log * trading_days
|
| 629 |
+
std_sum = sigma_log * np.sqrt(trading_days)
|
| 630 |
+
z = (0 - mean_sum) / std_sum
|
| 631 |
+
# Standard normal CDF via erf
|
| 632 |
+
cdf = 0.5 * (1 + erf(z / msqrt(2)))
|
| 633 |
+
p_no_loss = 1 - cdf
|
| 634 |
+
# Filter by user-selected safety level
|
| 635 |
+
if p_no_loss * 100 < safety_level:
|
| 636 |
+
continue
|
| 637 |
+
# Enforce max 45% total change (L1 distance in percentage points)
|
| 638 |
+
l1_change = float(np.abs(weights - baseline_weights).sum())
|
| 639 |
+
if l1_change > 45:
|
| 640 |
+
continue
|
| 641 |
+
# Score: 60% Sharpe, 40% total return
|
| 642 |
+
score = sharpe * 0.6 + (total_return / 100) * 0.4
|
| 643 |
+
if score > best_score:
|
| 644 |
+
best_score = score
|
| 645 |
+
best_portfolio = dict(zip(returns_df.columns, weights))
|
| 646 |
+
best_metrics = {
|
| 647 |
+
'sharpe': sharpe,
|
| 648 |
+
'total_return': total_return,
|
| 649 |
+
'volatility': volatility,
|
| 650 |
+
'max_drawdown': max_dd,
|
| 651 |
+
'p_no_loss': p_no_loss * 100
|
| 652 |
+
}
|
| 653 |
+
if best_portfolio:
|
| 654 |
+
results[label] = {
|
| 655 |
+
'portfolio': best_portfolio,
|
| 656 |
+
'metrics': best_metrics
|
| 657 |
+
}
|
| 658 |
+
if results:
|
| 659 |
+
st.success("โ
ื ืืฆืื ืืืืฆืืช ืืืคืืืืืืืช ืืื ืืชืงืืคืืช!")
|
| 660 |
+
for label, res in results.items():
|
| 661 |
+
st.subheader(f"{label} - ืืฉืืืื ืืืืืืฅ")
|
| 662 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 663 |
+
'ืื ืื': list(res['portfolio'].keys()),
|
| 664 |
+
'ืืืื ืืฉืงืขื ืืืฆืข': [f"{w:.1f}%" for w in res['portfolio'].values()]
|
| 665 |
+
})
|
| 666 |
+
st.dataframe(df, use_container_width=True)
|
| 667 |
+
col1, col2, col3, col4, col5 = st.columns(5)
|
| 668 |
+
with col1:
|
| 669 |
+
st.metric("Sharpe Ratio", f"{res['metrics']['sharpe']:.2f}")
|
| 670 |
+
with col2:
|
| 671 |
+
st.metric("ืชืฉืืื ืืืืืช", f"{res['metrics']['total_return']:.2f}%")
|
| 672 |
+
with col3:
|
| 673 |
+
st.metric("ืชื ืืืชืืืช", f"{res['metrics']['volatility']:.2f}%")
|
| 674 |
+
with col4:
|
| 675 |
+
st.metric("Max Drawdown", f"{res['metrics']['max_drawdown']:.2f}%")
|
| 676 |
+
with col5:
|
| 677 |
+
st.metric("ืกืืืื ืื ืืืคืกืื", f"{res['metrics']['p_no_loss']:.1f}%")
|
| 678 |
+
else:
|
| 679 |
+
st.error("ืื ื ืืชื ืืืฆืข ืืืคืืืืืืฆืื - ื ืืจืฉืืช ืืคืืืช 2 ืื ืืืช ืขื ื ืชืื ืื ืืืื ืื ืืื ืชืงืืคื")
|
| 680 |
+
|
| 681 |
+
elif suggest_combination:
|
| 682 |
+
if not portfolio:
|
| 683 |
+
st.error("ืื ื ืืื ืก ืืคืืืช ืื ืื ืืืช")
|
| 684 |
+
elif total_percentage != 100:
|
| 685 |
+
st.error(f"ืกืืดื ืืืืืืื ืฆืจืื ืืืืืช 100%. ืืจืืข: {total_percentage}%")
|
| 686 |
+
|
| 687 |
|
| 688 |
+
# Footer
|
| 689 |
+
st.markdown("---")
|
| 690 |
+
st.markdown("**WhatIfWealth** - ืืื ืื ืืชืื ืืืฆืืขื ืชืืง ืืฉืงืขืืช ืืืกืืืจื")
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