Spaces:
Running
Running
File size: 12,373 Bytes
f64b002 b020cb9 dff0b7c f64b002 aa191f1 f64b002 aa191f1 f64b002 cea6239 f64b002 cd8f75a f64b002 e93c6f5 f64b002 e93c6f5 f64b002 e93c6f5 f64b002 e93c6f5 f64b002 0218a42 f64b002 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 | """
Feature engineering for XGBoost model.
Handles:
- Multi-symbol calendar alignment
- Limited forward-fill for holidays
- Technical indicators (SMA, EMA, RSI, volatility)
- Lagged returns
- Sentiment feature join
"""
import logging
from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
from typing import Optional
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from sqlalchemy import func
from sqlalchemy.orm import Session
# pd.set_option("future.no_silent_downcasting", True)
from app.db import SessionLocal
from app.models import PriceBar, DailySentiment, DailySentimentV2
from app.settings import get_settings
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
# =============================================================================
# Data Loading
# =============================================================================
def load_price_data(
session: Session,
symbol: str,
start_date: Optional[datetime] = None,
end_date: Optional[datetime] = None
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""
Load price data for a symbol.
Returns:
DataFrame with columns: date, open, high, low, close, volume
"""
query = session.query(
PriceBar.date,
PriceBar.open,
PriceBar.high,
PriceBar.low,
PriceBar.close,
PriceBar.volume,
PriceBar.adj_close
).filter(PriceBar.symbol == symbol)
if start_date:
query = query.filter(PriceBar.date >= start_date)
if end_date:
query = query.filter(PriceBar.date <= end_date)
query = query.order_by(PriceBar.date.asc())
rows = query.all()
if not rows:
return pd.DataFrame()
df = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["date", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume", "adj_close"])
df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]).dt.tz_localize(None)
df = df.set_index("date")
return df
def load_sentiment_data(
session: Session,
start_date: Optional[datetime] = None,
end_date: Optional[datetime] = None
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""
Load daily sentiment data.
Returns:
DataFrame with columns: date, sentiment_index, news_count
"""
settings = get_settings()
source = str(getattr(settings, "scoring_source", "news_articles")).strip().lower()
use_v2 = source == "news_processed"
rows = []
if use_v2:
query_v2 = session.query(
DailySentimentV2.date,
DailySentimentV2.sentiment_index,
DailySentimentV2.news_count
)
if start_date:
query_v2 = query_v2.filter(DailySentimentV2.date >= start_date)
if end_date:
query_v2 = query_v2.filter(DailySentimentV2.date <= end_date)
rows = query_v2.order_by(DailySentimentV2.date.asc()).all()
if not rows:
logger.warning("No rows in daily_sentiments_v2; falling back to daily_sentiments")
if not rows:
query = session.query(
DailySentiment.date,
DailySentiment.sentiment_index,
DailySentiment.news_count
)
if start_date:
query = query.filter(DailySentiment.date >= start_date)
if end_date:
query = query.filter(DailySentiment.date <= end_date)
rows = query.order_by(DailySentiment.date.asc()).all()
if not rows:
return pd.DataFrame()
df = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["date", "sentiment_index", "news_count"])
df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]).dt.tz_localize(None)
df = df.set_index("date")
return df
# =============================================================================
# Technical Indicators
# =============================================================================
def compute_returns(prices: pd.Series, periods: int = 1) -> pd.Series:
"""Compute percentage returns."""
return prices.pct_change(periods)
def compute_sma(prices: pd.Series, window: int) -> pd.Series:
"""Simple Moving Average."""
return prices.rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).mean()
def compute_ema(prices: pd.Series, span: int) -> pd.Series:
"""Exponential Moving Average."""
return prices.ewm(span=span, adjust=False).mean()
def compute_rsi(prices: pd.Series, window: int = 14) -> pd.Series:
"""
Relative Strength Index.
RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS)
RS = avg_gain / avg_loss
"""
delta = prices.diff()
gain = delta.where(delta > 0, 0.0)
loss = (-delta).where(delta < 0, 0.0)
avg_gain = gain.rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).mean()
avg_loss = loss.rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).mean()
rs = avg_gain / avg_loss.replace(0, np.nan)
rsi = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs))
return rsi.fillna(50) # Neutral RSI when undefined
def compute_volatility(returns: pd.Series, window: int = 10) -> pd.Series:
"""Rolling standard deviation of returns (volatility)."""
return returns.rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).std()
# =============================================================================
# Feature Engineering
# =============================================================================
def generate_symbol_features(
df: pd.DataFrame,
symbol: str,
include_lags: list[int] = [1, 2, 3, 5],
sma_windows: list[int] = [5, 10, 20],
ema_windows: list[int] = [5, 10, 20],
rsi_window: int = 14,
vol_window: int = 10
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""
Generate features for a single symbol.
Features:
- ret1: 1-day return
- lag_ret1_k: lagged returns
- SMA_w: simple moving averages
- EMA_w: exponential moving averages
- RSI_14: relative strength index
- vol_10: rolling volatility
"""
features = pd.DataFrame(index=df.index)
prefix = f"{symbol}_" if symbol else ""
close = df["close"]
# Returns
ret1 = compute_returns(close, 1)
features[f"{prefix}ret1"] = ret1
# Lagged returns
for lag in include_lags:
features[f"{prefix}lag_ret1_{lag}"] = ret1.shift(lag)
# SMA
for w in sma_windows:
features[f"{prefix}SMA_{w}"] = compute_sma(close, w)
# EMA
for w in ema_windows:
features[f"{prefix}EMA_{w}"] = compute_ema(close, w)
# RSI
features[f"{prefix}RSI_{rsi_window}"] = compute_rsi(close, rsi_window)
# Volatility
features[f"{prefix}vol_{vol_window}"] = compute_volatility(ret1, vol_window)
# Price level (normalized by SMA for scale invariance)
sma_20 = compute_sma(close, 20)
features[f"{prefix}price_sma_ratio"] = close / sma_20.replace(0, np.nan)
return features
def align_to_target_calendar(
target_df: pd.DataFrame,
other_dfs: dict[str, pd.DataFrame],
max_ffill: int = 3
) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]:
"""
Align other DataFrames to target symbol's trading calendar.
Uses limited forward-fill for handling holidays/gaps.
Args:
target_df: DataFrame with target symbol (defines the index)
other_dfs: Dict of symbol -> DataFrame
max_ffill: Maximum days to forward-fill
Returns:
Dict of aligned DataFrames
"""
target_index = target_df.index
aligned = {}
for symbol, df in other_dfs.items():
if df.empty:
aligned[symbol] = pd.DataFrame(index=target_index)
continue
# Reindex to target calendar
reindexed = df.reindex(target_index)
# Limited forward-fill (infer_objects fixes future downcasting warning)
reindexed = reindexed.ffill(limit=max_ffill).infer_objects(copy=False)
aligned[symbol] = reindexed
return aligned
def build_feature_matrix(
session: Session,
target_symbol: str = "HG=F",
lookback_days: int = 365,
max_ffill: int = 3
) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.Series]:
"""
Build complete feature matrix for model training.
Returns:
Tuple of (X features DataFrame, y target Series)
Target: Next-day return (more stationary than price)
"""
settings = get_settings()
symbols = settings.training_symbols # Use active.json symbols for training
end_date = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
start_date = end_date - timedelta(days=lookback_days)
# Load target symbol
target_df = load_price_data(session, target_symbol, start_date, end_date)
if target_df.empty:
logger.error(f"No price data for target symbol {target_symbol}")
return pd.DataFrame(), pd.Series()
logger.info(f"Target symbol {target_symbol}: {len(target_df)} bars")
# Load other symbols
other_dfs = {}
for symbol in symbols:
if symbol != target_symbol:
df = load_price_data(session, symbol, start_date, end_date)
if not df.empty:
other_dfs[symbol] = df
logger.info(f"Symbol {symbol}: {len(df)} bars")
# Align to target calendar
aligned = align_to_target_calendar(target_df, other_dfs, max_ffill=max_ffill)
# Generate features for target
all_features = generate_symbol_features(target_df, target_symbol)
# Generate features for other symbols
for symbol, df in aligned.items():
if not df.empty:
symbol_features = generate_symbol_features(df, symbol)
all_features = all_features.join(symbol_features, how="left")
# Load and join sentiment data
sentiment_df = load_sentiment_data(session, start_date, end_date)
# Build sentiment features as separate Series, then concat (avoids fragmentation warning)
sentiment_parts = []
if not sentiment_df.empty:
# Reindex sentiment to target calendar
sentiment_aligned = sentiment_df.reindex(target_df.index)
sentiment_aligned = sentiment_aligned.ffill(limit=max_ffill)
sentiment_parts.append(
sentiment_aligned["sentiment_index"].fillna(settings.sentiment_missing_fill).rename("sentiment__index")
)
sentiment_parts.append(
sentiment_aligned["news_count"].fillna(0).rename("sentiment__news_count")
)
logger.info(f"Sentiment data joined: {sentiment_df.shape[0]} daily records")
else:
# No sentiment data - use defaults
sentiment_parts.append(
pd.Series(settings.sentiment_missing_fill, index=all_features.index, name="sentiment__index")
)
sentiment_parts.append(
pd.Series(0, index=all_features.index, name="sentiment__news_count")
)
logger.warning("No sentiment data available, using default values")
# Concat all at once to avoid fragmentation
all_features = pd.concat([all_features] + sentiment_parts, axis=1)
# Create target: next-day return
# IMPORTANT: Shift by -1 to get FUTURE return (what we're predicting)
target_ret = compute_returns(target_df["close"], 1)
y = target_ret.shift(-1) # Next day's return
y.name = "target_ret"
# Align features and target
X = all_features.copy()
# Drop rows with NaN target (last row won't have next-day return)
valid_mask = ~y.isna()
X = X[valid_mask]
y = y[valid_mask]
# Fill remaining NaN features with 0 (instead of dropping rows)
# This is important for new symbols that may have missing data
nan_count_before = X.isna().sum().sum()
X = X.fillna(0)
if nan_count_before > 0:
logger.info(f"Filled {nan_count_before} NaN values in features with 0")
logger.info(f"Feature matrix: {X.shape[0]} samples, {X.shape[1]} features")
return X, y
def get_feature_descriptions() -> dict[str, str]:
"""Get human-readable descriptions for feature names."""
return {
"sentiment__index": "Market Sentiment Index",
"sentiment__news_count": "Daily News Volume",
"ret1": "1-day Return",
"lag_ret1_1": "Return Lag 1",
"lag_ret1_2": "Return Lag 2",
"lag_ret1_3": "Return Lag 3",
"lag_ret1_5": "Return Lag 5",
"SMA_5": "5-day SMA",
"SMA_10": "10-day SMA",
"SMA_20": "20-day SMA",
"EMA_5": "5-day EMA",
"EMA_10": "10-day EMA",
"EMA_20": "20-day EMA",
"RSI_14": "14-day RSI",
"vol_10": "10-day Volatility",
"price_sma_ratio": "Price/SMA Ratio",
}
|