""" Feature engineering for XGBoost model. Handles: - Multi-symbol calendar alignment - Limited forward-fill for holidays - Technical indicators (SMA, EMA, RSI, volatility) - Lagged returns - Sentiment feature join """ import logging from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone from typing import Optional import numpy as np import pandas as pd from sqlalchemy import func from sqlalchemy.orm import Session # pd.set_option("future.no_silent_downcasting", True) from app.db import SessionLocal from app.models import PriceBar, DailySentiment, DailySentimentV2 from app.settings import get_settings logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) # ============================================================================= # Data Loading # ============================================================================= def load_price_data( session: Session, symbol: str, start_date: Optional[datetime] = None, end_date: Optional[datetime] = None ) -> pd.DataFrame: """ Load price data for a symbol. Returns: DataFrame with columns: date, open, high, low, close, volume """ query = session.query( PriceBar.date, PriceBar.open, PriceBar.high, PriceBar.low, PriceBar.close, PriceBar.volume, PriceBar.adj_close ).filter(PriceBar.symbol == symbol) if start_date: query = query.filter(PriceBar.date >= start_date) if end_date: query = query.filter(PriceBar.date <= end_date) query = query.order_by(PriceBar.date.asc()) rows = query.all() if not rows: return pd.DataFrame() df = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["date", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume", "adj_close"]) df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]).dt.tz_localize(None) df = df.set_index("date") return df def load_sentiment_data( session: Session, start_date: Optional[datetime] = None, end_date: Optional[datetime] = None ) -> pd.DataFrame: """ Load daily sentiment data. Returns: DataFrame with columns: date, sentiment_index, news_count """ settings = get_settings() source = str(getattr(settings, "scoring_source", "news_articles")).strip().lower() use_v2 = source == "news_processed" rows = [] if use_v2: query_v2 = session.query( DailySentimentV2.date, DailySentimentV2.sentiment_index, DailySentimentV2.news_count ) if start_date: query_v2 = query_v2.filter(DailySentimentV2.date >= start_date) if end_date: query_v2 = query_v2.filter(DailySentimentV2.date <= end_date) rows = query_v2.order_by(DailySentimentV2.date.asc()).all() if not rows: logger.warning("No rows in daily_sentiments_v2; falling back to daily_sentiments") if not rows: query = session.query( DailySentiment.date, DailySentiment.sentiment_index, DailySentiment.news_count ) if start_date: query = query.filter(DailySentiment.date >= start_date) if end_date: query = query.filter(DailySentiment.date <= end_date) rows = query.order_by(DailySentiment.date.asc()).all() if not rows: return pd.DataFrame() df = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["date", "sentiment_index", "news_count"]) df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]).dt.tz_localize(None) df = df.set_index("date") return df # ============================================================================= # Technical Indicators # ============================================================================= def compute_returns(prices: pd.Series, periods: int = 1) -> pd.Series: """Compute percentage returns.""" return prices.pct_change(periods) def compute_sma(prices: pd.Series, window: int) -> pd.Series: """Simple Moving Average.""" return prices.rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).mean() def compute_ema(prices: pd.Series, span: int) -> pd.Series: """Exponential Moving Average.""" return prices.ewm(span=span, adjust=False).mean() def compute_rsi(prices: pd.Series, window: int = 14) -> pd.Series: """ Relative Strength Index. RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS) RS = avg_gain / avg_loss """ delta = prices.diff() gain = delta.where(delta > 0, 0.0) loss = (-delta).where(delta < 0, 0.0) avg_gain = gain.rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).mean() avg_loss = loss.rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).mean() rs = avg_gain / avg_loss.replace(0, np.nan) rsi = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs)) return rsi.fillna(50) # Neutral RSI when undefined def compute_volatility(returns: pd.Series, window: int = 10) -> pd.Series: """Rolling standard deviation of returns (volatility).""" return returns.rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).std() # ============================================================================= # Feature Engineering # ============================================================================= def generate_symbol_features( df: pd.DataFrame, symbol: str, include_lags: list[int] = [1, 2, 3, 5], sma_windows: list[int] = [5, 10, 20], ema_windows: list[int] = [5, 10, 20], rsi_window: int = 14, vol_window: int = 10 ) -> pd.DataFrame: """ Generate features for a single symbol. Features: - ret1: 1-day return - lag_ret1_k: lagged returns - SMA_w: simple moving averages - EMA_w: exponential moving averages - RSI_14: relative strength index - vol_10: rolling volatility """ features = pd.DataFrame(index=df.index) prefix = f"{symbol}_" if symbol else "" close = df["close"] # Returns ret1 = compute_returns(close, 1) features[f"{prefix}ret1"] = ret1 # Lagged returns for lag in include_lags: features[f"{prefix}lag_ret1_{lag}"] = ret1.shift(lag) # SMA for w in sma_windows: features[f"{prefix}SMA_{w}"] = compute_sma(close, w) # EMA for w in ema_windows: features[f"{prefix}EMA_{w}"] = compute_ema(close, w) # RSI features[f"{prefix}RSI_{rsi_window}"] = compute_rsi(close, rsi_window) # Volatility features[f"{prefix}vol_{vol_window}"] = compute_volatility(ret1, vol_window) # Price level (normalized by SMA for scale invariance) sma_20 = compute_sma(close, 20) features[f"{prefix}price_sma_ratio"] = close / sma_20.replace(0, np.nan) return features def align_to_target_calendar( target_df: pd.DataFrame, other_dfs: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], max_ffill: int = 3 ) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: """ Align other DataFrames to target symbol's trading calendar. Uses limited forward-fill for handling holidays/gaps. Args: target_df: DataFrame with target symbol (defines the index) other_dfs: Dict of symbol -> DataFrame max_ffill: Maximum days to forward-fill Returns: Dict of aligned DataFrames """ target_index = target_df.index aligned = {} for symbol, df in other_dfs.items(): if df.empty: aligned[symbol] = pd.DataFrame(index=target_index) continue # Reindex to target calendar reindexed = df.reindex(target_index) # Limited forward-fill (infer_objects fixes future downcasting warning) reindexed = reindexed.ffill(limit=max_ffill).infer_objects(copy=False) aligned[symbol] = reindexed return aligned def build_feature_matrix( session: Session, target_symbol: str = "HG=F", lookback_days: int = 365, max_ffill: int = 3 ) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.Series]: """ Build complete feature matrix for model training. Returns: Tuple of (X features DataFrame, y target Series) Target: Next-day return (more stationary than price) """ settings = get_settings() symbols = settings.training_symbols # Use active.json symbols for training end_date = datetime.now(timezone.utc) start_date = end_date - timedelta(days=lookback_days) # Load target symbol target_df = load_price_data(session, target_symbol, start_date, end_date) if target_df.empty: logger.error(f"No price data for target symbol {target_symbol}") return pd.DataFrame(), pd.Series() logger.info(f"Target symbol {target_symbol}: {len(target_df)} bars") # Load other symbols other_dfs = {} for symbol in symbols: if symbol != target_symbol: df = load_price_data(session, symbol, start_date, end_date) if not df.empty: other_dfs[symbol] = df logger.info(f"Symbol {symbol}: {len(df)} bars") # Align to target calendar aligned = align_to_target_calendar(target_df, other_dfs, max_ffill=max_ffill) # Generate features for target all_features = generate_symbol_features(target_df, target_symbol) # Generate features for other symbols for symbol, df in aligned.items(): if not df.empty: symbol_features = generate_symbol_features(df, symbol) all_features = all_features.join(symbol_features, how="left") # Load and join sentiment data sentiment_df = load_sentiment_data(session, start_date, end_date) # Build sentiment features as separate Series, then concat (avoids fragmentation warning) sentiment_parts = [] if not sentiment_df.empty: # Reindex sentiment to target calendar sentiment_aligned = sentiment_df.reindex(target_df.index) sentiment_aligned = sentiment_aligned.ffill(limit=max_ffill) sentiment_parts.append( sentiment_aligned["sentiment_index"].fillna(settings.sentiment_missing_fill).rename("sentiment__index") ) sentiment_parts.append( sentiment_aligned["news_count"].fillna(0).rename("sentiment__news_count") ) logger.info(f"Sentiment data joined: {sentiment_df.shape[0]} daily records") else: # No sentiment data - use defaults sentiment_parts.append( pd.Series(settings.sentiment_missing_fill, index=all_features.index, name="sentiment__index") ) sentiment_parts.append( pd.Series(0, index=all_features.index, name="sentiment__news_count") ) logger.warning("No sentiment data available, using default values") # Concat all at once to avoid fragmentation all_features = pd.concat([all_features] + sentiment_parts, axis=1) # Create target: next-day return # IMPORTANT: Shift by -1 to get FUTURE return (what we're predicting) target_ret = compute_returns(target_df["close"], 1) y = target_ret.shift(-1) # Next day's return y.name = "target_ret" # Align features and target X = all_features.copy() # Drop rows with NaN target (last row won't have next-day return) valid_mask = ~y.isna() X = X[valid_mask] y = y[valid_mask] # Fill remaining NaN features with 0 (instead of dropping rows) # This is important for new symbols that may have missing data nan_count_before = X.isna().sum().sum() X = X.fillna(0) if nan_count_before > 0: logger.info(f"Filled {nan_count_before} NaN values in features with 0") logger.info(f"Feature matrix: {X.shape[0]} samples, {X.shape[1]} features") return X, y def get_feature_descriptions() -> dict[str, str]: """Get human-readable descriptions for feature names.""" return { "sentiment__index": "Market Sentiment Index", "sentiment__news_count": "Daily News Volume", "ret1": "1-day Return", "lag_ret1_1": "Return Lag 1", "lag_ret1_2": "Return Lag 2", "lag_ret1_3": "Return Lag 3", "lag_ret1_5": "Return Lag 5", "SMA_5": "5-day SMA", "SMA_10": "10-day SMA", "SMA_20": "20-day SMA", "EMA_5": "5-day EMA", "EMA_10": "10-day EMA", "EMA_20": "20-day EMA", "RSI_14": "14-day RSI", "vol_10": "10-day Volatility", "price_sma_ratio": "Price/SMA Ratio", }