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Sequence Optimizer β Hungarian algorithm for minimum-risk AβDFWβB assignment.
Given a pool of DFW arrivals (airport A, arrival time) and departures (airport B,
departure time), finds the one-to-one assignment that minimizes total weather risk.
Uses scipy.optimize.linear_sum_assignment (Jonker-Volgenant algorithm, O(nΒ³)).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from scipy.optimize import linear_sum_assignment
MIN_TURN = 30 # min turnaround minutes
MAX_TURN = 240 # max turnaround minutes
INFEASIBLE = 2.0 # penalty > max risk (1.0), forces infeasible pairs out
HIGH_THRESHOLD = 0.30 # calibrated score thresholds
MOD_THRESHOLD = 0.20
# ββ Cost matrix βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
def build_cost_matrix(
arrivals: pd.DataFrame, # cols: airport, time_min, flight, time_str[, carrier]
departures: pd.DataFrame, # cols: airport, time_min, flight, time_str[, carrier]
scores_idx: pd.DataFrame, # pair_risk_scores indexed by (airport_A, airport_B, Month)
month: int,
unknown_risk: float = 0.20, # neutral score for unknown pairs (calibrated scale)
) -> np.ndarray:
"""
Return n_arrivals Γ n_departures cost matrix.
Vectorized: cross-join β filter β batch-lookup via merge. O(n*m) pandas, not Python loops.
Cross-carrier pairings (e.g. AA arrival β DL departure) are blocked via INFEASIBLE penalty.
"""
has_carrier = "carrier" in arrivals.columns and "carrier" in departures.columns
arr_cols = ["airport", "time_min"] + (["carrier"] if has_carrier else [])
dep_cols = ["airport", "time_min"] + (["carrier"] if has_carrier else [])
arr = arrivals.reset_index(drop=True)[arr_cols].copy()
dep = departures.reset_index(drop=True)[dep_cols].copy()
arr["_i"] = arr.index
dep["_j"] = dep.index
# Cross-join
pairs = arr.merge(dep, how="cross", suffixes=("_a", "_b"))
# Filter: turnaround window + no same-airport round-trip + same carrier
ta = pairs["time_min_b"] - pairs["time_min_a"]
mask = (ta >= MIN_TURN) & (ta <= MAX_TURN) & (pairs["airport_a"] != pairs["airport_b"])
if has_carrier:
mask &= (pairs["carrier_a"] == pairs["carrier_b"])
pairs = pairs[mask].copy()
pairs.rename(columns={"airport_a": "airport_A", "airport_b": "airport_B"}, inplace=True)
pairs["Month"] = month
# Batch risk lookup via merge against scores
scores_flat = scores_idx.reset_index()[["airport_A", "airport_B", "Month", "avg_risk_score"]]
pairs = pairs.merge(scores_flat, on=["airport_A", "airport_B", "Month"], how="left")
pairs["avg_risk_score"] = pairs["avg_risk_score"].fillna(unknown_risk)
# Fill cost matrix
n, m = len(arrivals), len(departures)
cost = np.full((n, m), INFEASIBLE, dtype=float)
cost[pairs["_i"].values, pairs["_j"].values] = pairs["avg_risk_score"].values
return cost
# ββ Optimizer βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
def optimize_sequences(
arrivals: pd.DataFrame,
departures: pd.DataFrame,
scores_idx: pd.DataFrame,
month: int,
) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, dict]:
"""
Run Hungarian algorithm β minimum-risk assignment.
Returns:
(sequences_df, stats_dict)
"""
if arrivals.empty or departures.empty:
return pd.DataFrame(), {"error": "No arrivals or departures in window"}
cost = build_cost_matrix(arrivals, departures, scores_idx, month)
row_ind, col_ind = linear_sum_assignment(cost)
results = []
for i, j in zip(row_ind, col_ind):
c = cost[i][j]
if c >= INFEASIBLE:
continue
arr = arrivals.iloc[i]
dep = departures.iloc[j]
ta = int(dep["time_min"] - arr["time_min"])
results.append({
"Sequence": f"{arr['airport']} β DFW β {dep['airport']}",
"airport_A": arr["airport"],
"airport_B": dep["airport"],
"flight_in": arr.get("flight", "β"),
"arr_time": arr.get("time_str", ""),
"flight_out": dep.get("flight", "β"),
"dep_time": dep.get("time_str", ""),
"turnaround_min": ta,
"risk_score": c,
"risk_label": "HIGH" if c >= HIGH_THRESHOLD else "MODERATE" if c >= MOD_THRESHOLD else "LOW",
})
df = pd.DataFrame(results).sort_values("risk_score", ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
# Worst-case benchmark: greedy highest-risk assignment (for comparison)
worst_cost = _worst_case_risk(cost, row_ind, col_ind)
feasible_costs = cost[row_ind, col_ind]
feasible_mask = feasible_costs < INFEASIBLE
stats = {
"n_arrivals": len(arrivals),
"n_departures": len(departures),
"n_matched": int(feasible_mask.sum()),
"feasible_pairs": int((cost < INFEASIBLE).sum()),
"optimal_total": float(feasible_costs[feasible_mask].sum()),
"optimal_avg": float(feasible_costs[feasible_mask].mean()) if feasible_mask.any() else 0.0,
"worst_total": worst_cost,
"risk_saved": max(0.0, worst_cost - float(feasible_costs[feasible_mask].sum())),
"pct_high": float((feasible_costs[feasible_mask] >= HIGH_THRESHOLD).mean()) if feasible_mask.any() else 0.0,
"cost_matrix": cost,
"row_ind": row_ind,
"col_ind": col_ind,
}
return df, stats
def _worst_case_risk(cost: np.ndarray, row_ind: np.ndarray, col_ind: np.ndarray) -> float:
"""Approximate worst-case by flipping the cost matrix (maximize = minimize negative)."""
feasible = cost < INFEASIBLE
if not feasible.any():
return 0.0
neg_cost = np.where(feasible, 1.0 - cost, INFEASIBLE)
try:
wr, wc = linear_sum_assignment(neg_cost)
wc_vals = cost[wr, wc]
return float(wc_vals[wc_vals < INFEASIBLE].sum())
except Exception:
return float(cost[row_ind, col_ind][cost[row_ind, col_ind] < INFEASIBLE].sum())
# ββ Schedule builders βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
def bts_to_arrivals(day_df: pd.DataFrame, arr_start_h: int, arr_end_h: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Extract arrivals β DFW from BTS day DataFrame, filtered to hour window."""
df = day_df[day_df["Dest"] == "DFW"].copy()
df["time_min"] = (df["CRSArrTime"] // 100) * 60 + (df["CRSArrTime"] % 100)
df = df[(df["time_min"] >= arr_start_h * 60) & (df["time_min"] < arr_end_h * 60)]
df["time_str"] = (df["time_min"] // 60).astype(int).astype(str).str.zfill(2) + ":" + \
(df["time_min"] % 60).astype(int).astype(str).str.zfill(2)
df["carrier"] = df.get("Reporting_Airline", "AA").fillna("AA").astype(str)
df["flight"] = df["carrier"] + df["Flight_Number_Reporting_Airline"].fillna("").astype(str)
return df.rename(columns={"Origin": "airport"})[
["airport", "time_min", "time_str", "flight", "Tail_Number", "carrier"]
].dropna(subset=["airport", "time_min"]).reset_index(drop=True)
def bts_to_departures(day_df: pd.DataFrame, dep_start_h: int, dep_end_h: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Extract departures from DFW from BTS day DataFrame, filtered to hour window."""
df = day_df[day_df["Origin"] == "DFW"].copy()
df["time_min"] = (df["CRSDepTime"] // 100) * 60 + (df["CRSDepTime"] % 100)
df = df[(df["time_min"] >= dep_start_h * 60) & (df["time_min"] < dep_end_h * 60)]
df["time_str"] = (df["time_min"] // 60).astype(int).astype(str).str.zfill(2) + ":" + \
(df["time_min"] % 60).astype(int).astype(str).str.zfill(2)
df["carrier"] = df.get("Reporting_Airline", "AA").fillna("AA").astype(str)
df["flight"] = df["carrier"] + df["Flight_Number_Reporting_Airline"].fillna("").astype(str)
return df.rename(columns={"Dest": "airport"})[
["airport", "time_min", "time_str", "flight", "Tail_Number", "carrier"]
].dropna(subset=["airport", "time_min"]).reset_index(drop=True)
_DFW_TZ_OFFSET_H = -5 # DFW = CDT (UTC-5) AprβOct, CST (UTC-6) NovβMar
try:
import pytz as _pytz
_DFW_PYTZ = _pytz.timezone("America/Chicago")
except ImportError:
_DFW_PYTZ = None
def _to_dfw_local(dt) -> tuple[int, str]:
"""Convert UTC datetime β DFW local (minutes-from-midnight, display string)."""
if _DFW_PYTZ is not None:
dt_local = dt.astimezone(_DFW_PYTZ)
else:
from datetime import timedelta, timezone
offset = _DFW_TZ_OFFSET_H
dt_local = dt.astimezone(timezone(timedelta(hours=offset)))
t_min = dt_local.hour * 60 + dt_local.minute
t_str = dt_local.strftime("%H:%M CDT")
return t_min, t_str
def aviationstack_to_arrivals(raw: list[dict], start_h: int, end_h: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Parse AviationStack arrivals β standard DataFrame. Times converted UTCβDFW local."""
from datetime import datetime, timezone as _tz
rows = []
for f in raw:
arr = f.get("arrival") or {}
dep = f.get("departure") or {}
origin = dep.get("iata")
if not origin or origin == "DFW":
continue
# Prefer actual > estimated > scheduled
sched = arr.get("actual") or arr.get("estimated") or arr.get("scheduled")
if not sched:
continue
try:
dt = datetime.fromisoformat(sched.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
t_min, t_str = _to_dfw_local(dt)
except Exception:
continue
if not (start_h * 60 <= t_min < end_h * 60):
continue
flt = f.get("flight") or {}
airline = (f.get("airline") or {}).get("iata", "")
rows.append({
"airport": origin,
"time_min": t_min,
"time_str": t_str,
"flight": flt.get("iata", "AA?"),
"Tail_Number": (f.get("aircraft") or {}).get("registration", ""),
"carrier": airline,
})
return pd.DataFrame(rows) if rows else pd.DataFrame()
def aviationstack_to_departures(raw: list[dict], start_h: int, end_h: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Parse AviationStack departures β standard DataFrame. Times converted UTCβDFW local."""
from datetime import datetime
rows = []
for f in raw:
dep_info = f.get("departure") or {}
arr_info = f.get("arrival") or {}
dest = arr_info.get("iata")
if not dest or dest == "DFW":
continue
sched = dep_info.get("actual") or dep_info.get("estimated") or dep_info.get("scheduled")
if not sched:
continue
try:
dt = datetime.fromisoformat(sched.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
t_min, t_str = _to_dfw_local(dt)
except Exception:
continue
if not (start_h * 60 <= t_min < end_h * 60):
continue
flt = f.get("flight", {})
airline = (f.get("airline") or {}).get("iata", "")
rows.append({
"airport": dest,
"time_min": t_min,
"time_str": t_str,
"flight": flt.get("iata", "AA?"),
"Tail_Number": (f.get("aircraft") or {}).get("registration", ""),
"carrier": airline,
})
return pd.DataFrame(rows) if rows else pd.DataFrame()
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