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A/B Testing Framework for Model Performance Comparison
Implements statistical testing, multi-armed bandit optimization, and comprehensive experiment tracking
"""
import torch
import torch.nn as nn
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import logging
from typing import Dict, List, Tuple, Optional, Any, Union, Callable
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import json
import sqlite3
from pathlib import Path
import hashlib
import uuid
from enum import Enum
import scipy.stats as stats
from scipy.stats import chi2_contingency, mannwhitneyu, ttest_ind
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
import plotly.graph_objects as go
import plotly.express as px
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
# Multi-armed bandit algorithms
from typing import Protocol
import math
import random
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
class ExperimentStatus(Enum):
"""Experiment status enumeration"""
DRAFT = "draft"
RUNNING = "running"
PAUSED = "paused"
COMPLETED = "completed"
CANCELLED = "cancelled"
class BanditAlgorithm(Enum):
"""Multi-armed bandit algorithm types"""
EPSILON_GREEDY = "epsilon_greedy"
UCB1 = "ucb1"
THOMPSON_SAMPLING = "thompson_sampling"
LINUCB = "linucb"
@dataclass
class ModelVariant:
"""A/B test model variant definition"""
variant_id: str
model: nn.Module
model_path: Optional[str] = None
description: str = ""
hyperparameters: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
preprocessing_config: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
postprocessing_config: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
metadata: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
@dataclass
class ExperimentMetric:
"""Experiment metric definition"""
name: str
description: str
metric_type: str # "accuracy", "latency", "throughput", "memory", "custom"
target_value: Optional[float] = None
higher_is_better: bool = True
weight: float = 1.0
threshold: Optional[float] = None
@dataclass
class ExperimentConfig:
"""A/B test experiment configuration"""
experiment_id: str
name: str
description: str
variants: List[ModelVariant]
metrics: List[ExperimentMetric]
traffic_split: Dict[str, float] # variant_id -> traffic percentage
min_sample_size: int = 1000
max_duration_days: int = 30
confidence_level: float = 0.95
minimum_detectable_effect: float = 0.05
bandit_algorithm: BanditAlgorithm = BanditAlgorithm.EPSILON_GREEDY
bandit_config: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
auto_stop_winning_threshold: float = 0.99
auto_stop_losing_threshold: float = 0.01
@dataclass
class TestResult:
"""Individual test result"""
result_id: str
experiment_id: str
variant_id: str
user_id: Optional[str]
session_id: str
timestamp: datetime
metrics: Dict[str, float]
metadata: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
processing_time_ms: float = 0.0
@dataclass
class StatisticalTestResult:
"""Statistical test result"""
test_name: str
statistic: float
p_value: float
confidence_interval: Tuple[float, float]
effect_size: float
is_significant: bool
power: float
interpretation: str
@dataclass
class ExperimentSummary:
"""Experiment summary with statistical analysis"""
experiment_id: str
status: ExperimentStatus
start_time: datetime
end_time: Optional[datetime]
total_samples: int
variant_samples: Dict[str, int]
variant_metrics: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]
statistical_tests: Dict[str, List[StatisticalTestResult]]
confidence_intervals: Dict[str, Dict[str, Tuple[float, float]]]
best_variant: Optional[str]
recommendation: str
bandit_performance: Dict[str, float]
class BanditStrategy:
"""Base class for multi-armed bandit strategies"""
def __init__(self, variants: List[str], config: Dict[str, Any]):
self.variants = variants
self.config = config
self.reset()
def reset(self):
"""Reset bandit state"""
self.counts = {variant: 0 for variant in self.variants}
self.rewards = {variant: 0.0 for variant in self.variants}
self.total_count = 0
def select_variant(self) -> str:
"""Select next variant to test"""
raise NotImplementedError
def update_reward(self, variant: str, reward: float):
"""Update reward for selected variant"""
self.counts[variant] += 1
self.rewards[variant] += reward
self.total_count += 1
def get_variant_stats(self) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]:
"""Get statistics for all variants"""
stats = {}
for variant in self.variants:
if self.counts[variant] > 0:
avg_reward = self.rewards[variant] / self.counts[variant]
else:
avg_reward = 0.0
stats[variant] = {
'count': self.counts[variant],
'total_reward': self.rewards[variant],
'average_reward': avg_reward,
'selection_probability': self.counts[variant] / max(self.total_count, 1)
}
return stats
class EpsilonGreedyBandit(BanditStrategy):
"""Epsilon-greedy bandit algorithm"""
def __init__(self, variants: List[str], config: Dict[str, Any]):
super().__init__(variants, config)
self.epsilon = config.get('epsilon', 0.1)
self.decay_rate = config.get('decay_rate', 0.99)
def select_variant(self) -> str:
if random.random() < self.epsilon:
# Explore: random selection
return random.choice(self.variants)
else:
# Exploit: select best variant
best_variant = self.variants[0]
best_avg = 0.0
for variant in self.variants:
if self.counts[variant] > 0:
avg_reward = self.rewards[variant] / self.counts[variant]
if avg_reward > best_avg:
best_avg = avg_reward
best_variant = variant
return best_variant
def update_reward(self, variant: str, reward: float):
super().update_reward(variant, reward)
# Decay epsilon over time
self.epsilon *= self.decay_rate
class UCB1Bandit(BanditStrategy):
"""Upper Confidence Bound (UCB1) bandit algorithm"""
def __init__(self, variants: List[str], config: Dict[str, Any]):
super().__init__(variants, config)
self.exploration_factor = config.get('exploration_factor', 2.0)
def select_variant(self) -> str:
# Select unplayed variants first
for variant in self.variants:
if self.counts[variant] == 0:
return variant
# Calculate UCB values
ucb_values = {}
for variant in self.variants:
avg_reward = self.rewards[variant] / self.counts[variant]
confidence_interval = math.sqrt(
(self.exploration_factor * math.log(self.total_count)) / self.counts[variant]
)
ucb_values[variant] = avg_reward + confidence_interval
# Select variant with highest UCB value
return max(ucb_values, key=ucb_values.get)
class ThompsonSamplingBandit(BanditStrategy):
"""Thompson Sampling bandit algorithm"""
def __init__(self, variants: List[str], config: Dict[str, Any]):
super().__init__(variants, config)
self.alpha = {variant: 1.0 for variant in variants} # Success parameter
self.beta = {variant: 1.0 for variant in variants} # Failure parameter
def select_variant(self) -> str:
# Sample from Beta distribution for each variant
samples = {}
for variant in self.variants:
samples[variant] = np.random.beta(self.alpha[variant], self.beta[variant])
# Select variant with highest sample
return max(samples, key=samples.get)
def update_reward(self, variant: str, reward: float):
super().update_reward(variant, reward)
# Update Beta distribution parameters
# Assuming reward is between 0 and 1
self.alpha[variant] += reward
self.beta[variant] += (1 - reward)
class ABTestingFramework:
"""
Comprehensive A/B testing framework for model comparison
"""
def __init__(self, db_path: str = "ab_testing.db"):
self.db_path = db_path
self._init_database()
self.active_experiments = {}
self.bandit_strategies = {}
def _init_database(self):
"""Initialize SQLite database for experiment tracking"""
conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path)
cursor = conn.cursor()
# Experiments table
cursor.execute("""
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS experiments (
experiment_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
name TEXT NOT NULL,
description TEXT,
config TEXT,
status TEXT,
start_time TIMESTAMP,
end_time TIMESTAMP,
created_at TIMESTAMP DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP
)
""")
# Test results table
cursor.execute("""
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS test_results (
result_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
experiment_id TEXT,
variant_id TEXT,
user_id TEXT,
session_id TEXT,
timestamp TIMESTAMP,
metrics TEXT,
metadata TEXT,
processing_time_ms REAL,
FOREIGN KEY (experiment_id) REFERENCES experiments (experiment_id)
)
""")
# Statistical results table
cursor.execute("""
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS statistical_results (
id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
experiment_id TEXT,
test_name TEXT,
variant_a TEXT,
variant_b TEXT,
statistic REAL,
p_value REAL,
effect_size REAL,
confidence_interval TEXT,
is_significant BOOLEAN,
created_at TIMESTAMP DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
FOREIGN KEY (experiment_id) REFERENCES experiments (experiment_id)
)
""")
conn.commit()
conn.close()
def create_experiment(self, config: ExperimentConfig) -> str:
"""Create a new A/B test experiment"""
# Validate configuration
self._validate_experiment_config(config)
# Store experiment in database
conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path)
cursor = conn.cursor()
cursor.execute("""
INSERT INTO experiments (experiment_id, name, description, config, status, start_time)
VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
""", (
config.experiment_id,
config.name,
config.description,
json.dumps(config.__dict__, default=str),
ExperimentStatus.DRAFT.value,
datetime.now()
))
conn.commit()
conn.close()
logger.info(f"Created experiment {config.experiment_id}: {config.name}")
return config.experiment_id
def start_experiment(self, experiment_id: str) -> bool:
"""Start an A/B test experiment"""
# Load experiment configuration
config = self._load_experiment_config(experiment_id)
if not config:
logger.error(f"Experiment {experiment_id} not found")
return False
# Initialize bandit strategy
variant_ids = [v.variant_id for v in config.variants]
if config.bandit_algorithm == BanditAlgorithm.EPSILON_GREEDY:
self.bandit_strategies[experiment_id] = EpsilonGreedyBandit(variant_ids, config.bandit_config)
elif config.bandit_algorithm == BanditAlgorithm.UCB1:
self.bandit_strategies[experiment_id] = UCB1Bandit(variant_ids, config.bandit_config)
elif config.bandit_algorithm == BanditAlgorithm.THOMPSON_SAMPLING:
self.bandit_strategies[experiment_id] = ThompsonSamplingBandit(variant_ids, config.bandit_config)
# Update experiment status
self._update_experiment_status(experiment_id, ExperimentStatus.RUNNING)
# Store active experiment
self.active_experiments[experiment_id] = config
logger.info(f"Started experiment {experiment_id}")
return True
def assign_variant(self, experiment_id: str, user_id: Optional[str] = None) -> Optional[str]:
"""
Assign a variant to a user for the experiment
Args:
experiment_id: Experiment ID
user_id: Optional user ID for consistent assignment
Returns:
Assigned variant ID or None if experiment not found
"""
if experiment_id not in self.active_experiments:
logger.warning(f"Experiment {experiment_id} is not active")
return None
config = self.active_experiments[experiment_id]
# Use bandit algorithm if enabled
if experiment_id in self.bandit_strategies:
return self.bandit_strategies[experiment_id].select_variant()
# Use static traffic split
variant_ids = list(config.traffic_split.keys())
weights = list(config.traffic_split.values())
# Consistent assignment for same user
if user_id:
# Use hash of user_id for deterministic assignment
hash_value = int(hashlib.md5(f"{experiment_id}_{user_id}".encode()).hexdigest(), 16)
random.seed(hash_value)
selected_variant = np.random.choice(variant_ids, p=weights)
return selected_variant
def record_result(
self,
experiment_id: str,
variant_id: str,
metrics: Dict[str, float],
user_id: Optional[str] = None,
session_id: Optional[str] = None,
metadata: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None
) -> str:
"""
Record a test result
Args:
experiment_id: Experiment ID
variant_id: Variant ID
metrics: Dictionary of metric values
user_id: Optional user ID
session_id: Optional session ID
metadata: Optional metadata
Returns:
Result ID
"""
result_id = str(uuid.uuid4())
timestamp = datetime.now()
if session_id is None:
session_id = str(uuid.uuid4())
if metadata is None:
metadata = {}
# Store result in database
conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path)
cursor = conn.cursor()
cursor.execute("""
INSERT INTO test_results
(result_id, experiment_id, variant_id, user_id, session_id, timestamp, metrics, metadata, processing_time_ms)
VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
""", (
result_id,
experiment_id,
variant_id,
user_id,
session_id,
timestamp,
json.dumps(metrics),
json.dumps(metadata),
0.0 # Will be updated if provided
))
conn.commit()
conn.close()
# Update bandit strategy if applicable
if experiment_id in self.bandit_strategies:
# Calculate reward based on primary metric
config = self.active_experiments[experiment_id]
primary_metric = config.metrics[0] # Assume first metric is primary
if primary_metric.name in metrics:
reward = metrics[primary_metric.name]
# Normalize reward to [0, 1] if needed
if primary_metric.target_value:
reward = min(reward / primary_metric.target_value, 1.0)
self.bandit_strategies[experiment_id].update_reward(variant_id, reward)
logger.debug(f"Recorded result {result_id} for experiment {experiment_id}, variant {variant_id}")
return result_id
def run_statistical_analysis(self, experiment_id: str) -> ExperimentSummary:
"""
Run comprehensive statistical analysis on experiment results
Args:
experiment_id: Experiment ID
Returns:
Experiment summary with statistical analysis
"""
# Load experiment data
config = self._load_experiment_config(experiment_id)
results_df = self._load_experiment_results(experiment_id)
if results_df.empty:
logger.warning(f"No results found for experiment {experiment_id}")
return self._create_empty_summary(experiment_id)
# Calculate basic statistics
variant_samples = results_df['variant_id'].value_counts().to_dict()
total_samples = len(results_df)
# Calculate variant metrics
variant_metrics = {}
for variant_id in variant_samples.keys():
variant_data = results_df[results_df['variant_id'] == variant_id]
variant_metrics[variant_id] = self._calculate_variant_metrics(variant_data, config.metrics)
# Run statistical tests
statistical_tests = self._run_statistical_tests(results_df, config.metrics)
# Calculate confidence intervals
confidence_intervals = self._calculate_confidence_intervals(results_df, config.metrics, config.confidence_level)
# Determine best variant
best_variant = self._determine_best_variant(variant_metrics, config.metrics)
# Generate recommendation
recommendation = self._generate_recommendation(statistical_tests, variant_metrics, config)
# Get bandit performance
bandit_performance = {}
if experiment_id in self.bandit_strategies:
bandit_performance = self.bandit_strategies[experiment_id].get_variant_stats()
# Create summary
summary = ExperimentSummary(
experiment_id=experiment_id,
status=self._get_experiment_status(experiment_id),
start_time=config.start_time if hasattr(config, 'start_time') else datetime.now(),
end_time=None,
total_samples=total_samples,
variant_samples=variant_samples,
variant_metrics=variant_metrics,
statistical_tests=statistical_tests,
confidence_intervals=confidence_intervals,
best_variant=best_variant,
recommendation=recommendation,
bandit_performance=bandit_performance
)
return summary
def stop_experiment(self, experiment_id: str, reason: str = "Manual stop") -> bool:
"""Stop an A/B test experiment"""
if experiment_id not in self.active_experiments:
logger.warning(f"Experiment {experiment_id} is not active")
return False
# Update experiment status
self._update_experiment_status(experiment_id, ExperimentStatus.COMPLETED)
# Remove from active experiments
del self.active_experiments[experiment_id]
# Clean up bandit strategy
if experiment_id in self.bandit_strategies:
del self.bandit_strategies[experiment_id]
logger.info(f"Stopped experiment {experiment_id}. Reason: {reason}")
return True
def auto_check_experiments(self):
"""Automatically check experiments for early stopping conditions"""
for experiment_id in list(self.active_experiments.keys()):
config = self.active_experiments[experiment_id]
summary = self.run_statistical_analysis(experiment_id)
# Check for auto-stop conditions
should_stop, reason = self._check_auto_stop_conditions(summary, config)
if should_stop:
self.stop_experiment(experiment_id, reason)
def generate_report(self, experiment_id: str, output_path: Optional[str] = None) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""
Generate comprehensive experiment report
Args:
experiment_id: Experiment ID
output_path: Optional path to save report
Returns:
Report dictionary
"""
summary = self.run_statistical_analysis(experiment_id)
# Create visualizations
visualizations = self._create_visualizations(experiment_id, summary)
# Generate report
report = {
'experiment_summary': summary,
'detailed_analysis': self._generate_detailed_analysis(summary),
'visualizations': visualizations,
'recommendations': self._generate_detailed_recommendations(summary),
'next_steps': self._suggest_next_steps(summary)
}
# Save report if path provided
if output_path:
self._save_report(report, output_path)
return report
def _validate_experiment_config(self, config: ExperimentConfig):
"""Validate experiment configuration"""
# Check traffic split sums to 1.0
total_traffic = sum(config.traffic_split.values())
if abs(total_traffic - 1.0) > 0.001:
raise ValueError(f"Traffic split must sum to 1.0, got {total_traffic}")
# Check all variants have traffic allocation
variant_ids = {v.variant_id for v in config.variants}
traffic_variants = set(config.traffic_split.keys())
if variant_ids != traffic_variants:
raise ValueError("Variant IDs in variants and traffic_split must match")
# Validate metrics
if not config.metrics:
raise ValueError("At least one metric must be defined")
def _load_experiment_config(self, experiment_id: str) -> Optional[ExperimentConfig]:
"""Load experiment configuration from database"""
conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path)
cursor = conn.cursor()
cursor.execute("SELECT config FROM experiments WHERE experiment_id = ?", (experiment_id,))
result = cursor.fetchone()
conn.close()
if result:
config_dict = json.loads(result[0])
# Would need to reconstruct ExperimentConfig from dict
# This is simplified for the example
return config_dict
return None
def _load_experiment_results(self, experiment_id: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Load experiment results from database"""
conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path)
query = """
SELECT result_id, variant_id, user_id, session_id, timestamp,
metrics, metadata, processing_time_ms
FROM test_results
WHERE experiment_id = ?
ORDER BY timestamp
"""
df = pd.read_sql_query(query, conn, params=(experiment_id,))
conn.close()
# Parse JSON columns
if not df.empty:
df['metrics'] = df['metrics'].apply(json.loads)
df['metadata'] = df['metadata'].apply(json.loads)
df['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(df['timestamp'])
return df
def _calculate_variant_metrics(self, variant_data: pd.DataFrame, metrics: List[ExperimentMetric]) -> Dict[str, float]:
"""Calculate metrics for a variant"""
result = {}
for metric in metrics:
metric_values = []
for _, row in variant_data.iterrows():
if metric.name in row['metrics']:
metric_values.append(row['metrics'][metric.name])
if metric_values:
result[f"{metric.name}_mean"] = np.mean(metric_values)
result[f"{metric.name}_std"] = np.std(metric_values)
result[f"{metric.name}_count"] = len(metric_values)
result[f"{metric.name}_median"] = np.median(metric_values)
if metric.metric_type == "accuracy":
result[f"{metric.name}_min"] = np.min(metric_values)
result[f"{metric.name}_max"] = np.max(metric_values)
return result
def _run_statistical_tests(self, results_df: pd.DataFrame, metrics: List[ExperimentMetric]) -> Dict[str, List[StatisticalTestResult]]:
"""Run statistical tests comparing variants"""
tests = {}
variants = results_df['variant_id'].unique()
for metric in metrics:
tests[metric.name] = []
# Pairwise comparisons between variants
for i, variant_a in enumerate(variants):
for variant_b in variants[i+1:]:
# Extract metric values for both variants
values_a = []
values_b = []
for _, row in results_df.iterrows():
if row['variant_id'] == variant_a and metric.name in row['metrics']:
values_a.append(row['metrics'][metric.name])
elif row['variant_id'] == variant_b and metric.name in row['metrics']:
values_b.append(row['metrics'][metric.name])
if len(values_a) > 10 and len(values_b) > 10: # Minimum sample size
# Choose appropriate test based on metric type
if metric.metric_type == "accuracy":
# Use t-test for continuous metrics
statistic, p_value = ttest_ind(values_a, values_b)
test_name = "t-test"
else:
# Use Mann-Whitney U test for non-parametric data
statistic, p_value = mannwhitneyu(values_a, values_b, alternative='two-sided')
test_name = "Mann-Whitney U"
# Calculate effect size (Cohen's d)
pooled_std = np.sqrt(((len(values_a) - 1) * np.var(values_a) +
(len(values_b) - 1) * np.var(values_b)) /
(len(values_a) + len(values_b) - 2))
if pooled_std > 0:
cohens_d = (np.mean(values_a) - np.mean(values_b)) / pooled_std
else:
cohens_d = 0.0
# Calculate confidence interval
conf_int = self._calculate_mean_difference_ci(values_a, values_b)
# Determine significance
alpha = 1 - 0.95 # Assuming 95% confidence level
is_significant = p_value < alpha
# Calculate statistical power (simplified)
power = self._calculate_statistical_power(len(values_a), len(values_b), cohens_d, alpha)
# Generate interpretation
interpretation = self._interpret_test_result(
variant_a, variant_b, statistic, p_value, cohens_d, is_significant
)
test_result = StatisticalTestResult(
test_name=f"{test_name}_{variant_a}_vs_{variant_b}",
statistic=statistic,
p_value=p_value,
confidence_interval=conf_int,
effect_size=cohens_d,
is_significant=is_significant,
power=power,
interpretation=interpretation
)
tests[metric.name].append(test_result)
return tests
def _calculate_confidence_intervals(
self,
results_df: pd.DataFrame,
metrics: List[ExperimentMetric],
confidence_level: float
) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, Tuple[float, float]]]:
"""Calculate confidence intervals for metrics by variant"""
intervals = {}
variants = results_df['variant_id'].unique()
for metric in metrics:
intervals[metric.name] = {}
for variant in variants:
values = []
for _, row in results_df.iterrows():
if row['variant_id'] == variant and metric.name in row['metrics']:
values.append(row['metrics'][metric.name])
if len(values) > 1:
mean = np.mean(values)
sem = stats.sem(values) # Standard error of mean
h = sem * stats.t.ppf((1 + confidence_level) / 2., len(values) - 1)
intervals[metric.name][variant] = (mean - h, mean + h)
else:
intervals[metric.name][variant] = (0.0, 0.0)
return intervals
def _determine_best_variant(self, variant_metrics: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]], metrics: List[ExperimentMetric]) -> Optional[str]:
"""Determine the best performing variant"""
if not variant_metrics:
return None
# Use weighted scoring based on primary metric
primary_metric = metrics[0] # Assume first metric is primary
metric_key = f"{primary_metric.name}_mean"
best_variant = None
best_score = float('-inf') if primary_metric.higher_is_better else float('inf')
for variant_id, variant_data in variant_metrics.items():
if metric_key in variant_data:
score = variant_data[metric_key]
if primary_metric.higher_is_better and score > best_score:
best_score = score
best_variant = variant_id
elif not primary_metric.higher_is_better and score < best_score:
best_score = score
best_variant = variant_id
return best_variant
def _generate_recommendation(
self,
statistical_tests: Dict[str, List[StatisticalTestResult]],
variant_metrics: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]],
config: ExperimentConfig
) -> str:
"""Generate experiment recommendation"""
# Count significant results
significant_tests = 0
total_tests = 0
for metric_tests in statistical_tests.values():
for test in metric_tests:
total_tests += 1
if test.is_significant:
significant_tests += 1
if total_tests == 0:
return "Insufficient data for recommendation"
significance_ratio = significant_tests / total_tests
if significance_ratio > 0.5:
return "Strong evidence of variant differences. Recommend deploying best variant."
elif significance_ratio > 0.2:
return "Some evidence of variant differences. Consider extending experiment."
else:
return "No strong evidence of variant differences. Current variant can be maintained."
def _check_auto_stop_conditions(self, summary: ExperimentSummary, config: ExperimentConfig) -> Tuple[bool, str]:
"""Check if experiment should be automatically stopped"""
# Check minimum sample size
if summary.total_samples < config.min_sample_size:
return False, ""
# Check duration
if summary.start_time:
duration = datetime.now() - summary.start_time
if duration.days >= config.max_duration_days:
return True, f"Maximum duration reached ({config.max_duration_days} days)"
# Check for winning variant
if summary.statistical_tests:
# Simplified check for clear winner
significant_wins = 0
total_comparisons = 0
for metric_tests in summary.statistical_tests.values():
for test in metric_tests:
total_comparisons += 1
if test.is_significant and test.p_value < config.auto_stop_winning_threshold:
significant_wins += 1
if total_comparisons > 0 and significant_wins / total_comparisons > 0.8:
return True, "Clear winning variant detected"
return False, ""
def _create_visualizations(self, experiment_id: str, summary: ExperimentSummary) -> Dict[str, str]:
"""Create visualizations for experiment report"""
visualizations = {}
# This would create actual plots and return their paths/base64 encodings
# For now, returning placeholder paths
visualizations['metrics_comparison'] = f"metrics_comparison_{experiment_id}.png"
visualizations['confidence_intervals'] = f"confidence_intervals_{experiment_id}.png"
visualizations['statistical_significance'] = f"statistical_significance_{experiment_id}.png"
visualizations['bandit_performance'] = f"bandit_performance_{experiment_id}.png"
return visualizations
def _generate_detailed_analysis(self, summary: ExperimentSummary) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Generate detailed analysis"""
return {
'sample_size_analysis': self._analyze_sample_sizes(summary),
'effect_size_analysis': self._analyze_effect_sizes(summary),
'statistical_power_analysis': self._analyze_statistical_power(summary),
'practical_significance': self._analyze_practical_significance(summary)
}
def _generate_detailed_recommendations(self, summary: ExperimentSummary) -> List[str]:
"""Generate detailed recommendations"""
recommendations = []
# Sample size recommendations
if summary.total_samples < 1000:
recommendations.append("Consider collecting more data for increased statistical power")
# Effect size recommendations
# ... implementation based on effect sizes
# Business impact recommendations
recommendations.append("Evaluate business impact beyond statistical significance")
return recommendations
def _suggest_next_steps(self, summary: ExperimentSummary) -> List[str]:
"""Suggest next steps based on results"""
next_steps = []
if summary.best_variant:
next_steps.append(f"Consider deploying {summary.best_variant} as the new default")
next_steps.append("Monitor performance in production environment")
next_steps.append("Plan follow-up experiments to optimize further")
return next_steps
def _calculate_mean_difference_ci(self, values_a: List[float], values_b: List[float]) -> Tuple[float, float]:
"""Calculate confidence interval for mean difference"""
mean_a, mean_b = np.mean(values_a), np.mean(values_b)
var_a, var_b = np.var(values_a, ddof=1), np.var(values_b, ddof=1)
n_a, n_b = len(values_a), len(values_b)
# Pooled standard error
se_diff = np.sqrt(var_a / n_a + var_b / n_b)
# Degrees of freedom (Welch's formula)
df = (var_a / n_a + var_b / n_b) ** 2 / ((var_a / n_a) ** 2 / (n_a - 1) + (var_b / n_b) ** 2 / (n_b - 1))
# Critical value for 95% confidence
t_crit = stats.t.ppf(0.975, df)
mean_diff = mean_a - mean_b
margin_of_error = t_crit * se_diff
return (mean_diff - margin_of_error, mean_diff + margin_of_error)
def _calculate_statistical_power(self, n1: int, n2: int, effect_size: float, alpha: float) -> float:
"""Calculate statistical power (simplified)"""
# This is a simplified power calculation
# In practice, you'd use more sophisticated methods
total_n = n1 + n2
if total_n < 20:
return 0.2
elif total_n < 100:
return 0.5
elif abs(effect_size) > 0.5:
return 0.8
else:
return 0.6
def _interpret_test_result(
self,
variant_a: str,
variant_b: str,
statistic: float,
p_value: float,
effect_size: float,
is_significant: bool
) -> str:
"""Interpret statistical test result"""
if is_significant:
if abs(effect_size) > 0.8:
magnitude = "large"
elif abs(effect_size) > 0.5:
magnitude = "medium"
else:
magnitude = "small"
direction = "outperforms" if effect_size > 0 else "underperforms"
return f"{variant_a} {direction} {variant_b} with a {magnitude} effect size (p={p_value:.3f})"
else:
return f"No significant difference between {variant_a} and {variant_b} (p={p_value:.3f})"
def _analyze_sample_sizes(self, summary: ExperimentSummary) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Analyze sample sizes"""
return {"analysis": "Sample size analysis would be implemented here"}
def _analyze_effect_sizes(self, summary: ExperimentSummary) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Analyze effect sizes"""
return {"analysis": "Effect size analysis would be implemented here"}
def _analyze_statistical_power(self, summary: ExperimentSummary) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Analyze statistical power"""
return {"analysis": "Statistical power analysis would be implemented here"}
def _analyze_practical_significance(self, summary: ExperimentSummary) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Analyze practical significance"""
return {"analysis": "Practical significance analysis would be implemented here"}
def _update_experiment_status(self, experiment_id: str, status: ExperimentStatus):
"""Update experiment status in database"""
conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path)
cursor = conn.cursor()
cursor.execute(
"UPDATE experiments SET status = ?, end_time = ? WHERE experiment_id = ?",
(status.value, datetime.now() if status == ExperimentStatus.COMPLETED else None, experiment_id)
)
conn.commit()
conn.close()
def _get_experiment_status(self, experiment_id: str) -> ExperimentStatus:
"""Get experiment status"""
conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path)
cursor = conn.cursor()
cursor.execute("SELECT status FROM experiments WHERE experiment_id = ?", (experiment_id,))
result = cursor.fetchone()
conn.close()
if result:
return ExperimentStatus(result[0])
return ExperimentStatus.DRAFT
def _create_empty_summary(self, experiment_id: str) -> ExperimentSummary:
"""Create empty experiment summary"""
return ExperimentSummary(
experiment_id=experiment_id,
status=ExperimentStatus.DRAFT,
start_time=datetime.now(),
end_time=None,
total_samples=0,
variant_samples={},
variant_metrics={},
statistical_tests={},
confidence_intervals={},
best_variant=None,
recommendation="No data available",
bandit_performance={}
)
def _save_report(self, report: Dict[str, Any], output_path: str):
"""Save experiment report"""
Path(output_path).parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
with open(output_path, 'w') as f:
json.dump(report, f, indent=2, default=str)
logger.info(f"Report saved to {output_path}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO)
# Example usage
framework = ABTestingFramework()
# Example models (placeholders)
model_a = nn.Sequential(nn.Linear(100, 1))
model_b = nn.Sequential(nn.Linear(100, 50), nn.ReLU(), nn.Linear(50, 1))
# Create experiment configuration
config = ExperimentConfig(
experiment_id="morph_detection_comparison_001",
name="MorphGuard Model Comparison",
description="Comparing baseline vs enhanced model for morph detection",
variants=[
ModelVariant(variant_id="baseline", model=model_a, description="Baseline model"),
ModelVariant(variant_id="enhanced", model=model_b, description="Enhanced model with hidden layer")
],
metrics=[
ExperimentMetric(name="accuracy", description="Detection accuracy", metric_type="accuracy", higher_is_better=True),
ExperimentMetric(name="latency", description="Inference latency", metric_type="latency", higher_is_better=False)
],
traffic_split={"baseline": 0.5, "enhanced": 0.5},
bandit_algorithm=BanditAlgorithm.THOMPSON_SAMPLING
)
# Create and start experiment
experiment_id = framework.create_experiment(config)
framework.start_experiment(experiment_id)
# Simulate some test results
for i in range(1000):
variant = framework.assign_variant(experiment_id)
# Simulate metrics (enhanced model performs slightly better)
if variant == "enhanced":
accuracy = np.random.normal(0.92, 0.02)
latency = np.random.normal(45, 5)
else:
accuracy = np.random.normal(0.89, 0.02)
latency = np.random.normal(50, 5)
framework.record_result(
experiment_id=experiment_id,
variant_id=variant,
metrics={"accuracy": accuracy, "latency": latency},
user_id=f"user_{i}",
session_id=f"session_{i}"
)
# Analyze results
summary = framework.run_statistical_analysis(experiment_id)
print(f"Best variant: {summary.best_variant}")
print(f"Recommendation: {summary.recommendation}")
# Generate report
report = framework.generate_report(experiment_id)
print("Report generated successfully") |