File size: 19,733 Bytes
7bb0af0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
e60df7c
7bb0af0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
"""
excel_export.py -- Excel workbook creation with natively calculated VaR/ES formulas.
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import math
import os
from datetime import date
import openpyxl
from openpyxl.styles import Alignment, Border, Font, PatternFill, Side
from openpyxl.worksheet.worksheet import Worksheet
import pandas as pd
from loguru import logger

# Cell values can be str, int, float, None, etc.
CellValue = str | int | float | None
SummaryRow = list[CellValue]


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Shared styles
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

HEADER_FILL = PatternFill(start_color="1F497D", end_color="1F497D", fill_type="solid")
HEADER_FONT = Font(color="FFFFFF", bold=True)
VAR_95_FILL = PatternFill(start_color="FFD966", end_color="FFD966", fill_type="solid")  # orangish-yellow
VAR_99_FILL = PatternFill(start_color="F6C96C", end_color="F6C96C", fill_type="solid")  # light amber
THIN_BORDER = Border(
    left=Side(style="thin"),
    right=Side(style="thin"),
    top=Side(style="thin"),
    bottom=Side(style="thin"),
)


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Public helpers
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


def make_output_dir() -> str:
    """Create and return the directory ``output/{YYYY-MM-DD}/``."""
    dir_path = os.path.join("output", date.today().strftime("%Y-%m-%d"))
    os.makedirs(dir_path, exist_ok=True)
    logger.debug(f"Output directory: {dir_path}")
    return dir_path


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Data columns (A-D) -- shared between Historical and Parametric
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


def _write_data_columns(
    worksheet: Worksheet,
    prices: pd.Series,
    max_data_row: int,
    method: str,
) -> None:
    """Write date/price headers and rows into columns A-D.

    Column C:
    - Historical: -(P_t - P_{t-1}) / P_{t-1}  (arithmetic loss, positive = loss)
    - Parametric: LN(P_t / P_{t-1})            (log return, negative = loss)
    Column D:
    - Historical: LARGE() -- losses descending (worst first)
    - Parametric: SMALL() -- returns ascending (worst first)
    """
    if method == "Historical":
        col_c_header = "Daily Arithmetic Return"
        col_d_header = "Sorted Return"
    else:
        col_c_header = "Daily Log Return"
        col_d_header = "Sorted Return"
    center = Alignment(horizontal="right")

    headers = ["Date", "Close Price", col_c_header, col_d_header]
    for col_idx, header in enumerate(headers, start=1):
        cell = worksheet.cell(row=1, column=col_idx, value=header)
        cell.fill = HEADER_FILL
        cell.font = HEADER_FONT
        cell.border = THIN_BORDER
        if col_idx in (2, 3, 4):
            cell.alignment = center

    dates = pd.DatetimeIndex(prices.index)
    price_values = prices.values

    for i in range(len(prices)):
        row = i + 2
        worksheet.cell(row=row, column=1, value=dates[i].strftime("%Y-%m-%d"))
        price_cell = worksheet.cell(row=row, column=2, value=float(price_values[i]))
        price_cell.alignment = center

        if row > 2:
            if method == "Historical":
                col_c_formula = f"=(B{row}-B{row - 1})/B{row - 1}"
                col_d_formula = f"=SMALL(C$3:C${max_data_row}, ROW()-2)"
            else:
                col_c_formula = f"=LN(B{row}/B{row - 1})"
                col_d_formula = f"=SMALL(C$3:C${max_data_row}, ROW()-2)"
            return_cell = worksheet.cell(row=row, column=3, value=col_c_formula)
            return_cell.number_format = "0.0000%"
            return_cell.alignment = center

            sorted_cell = worksheet.cell(row=row, column=4, value=col_d_formula)
            sorted_cell.number_format = "0.0000%"
            sorted_cell.alignment = center


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# VaR / ES formulas -- method-specific
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


def _var_dollar_formula(method: str, max_data_row: int, alpha: float, pv_ref: str) -> str:
    """Return the Excel formula for 1-Day VaR ($) — positive = loss.

    Historical: PERCENTILE(losses, confidence) * V
    Parametric: -V * (mu - z_alpha * sigma)   where column C = LN returns
    """
    confidence = 1.0 - alpha
    rng = f"C$3:C${max_data_row}"
    if method == "Historical":
        return f"=-PERCENTILE({rng},{alpha})*{pv_ref}"
    else:
        return (
            f"=-{pv_ref}*(AVERAGE({rng})"
            f"-_xlfn.NORM.S.INV({confidence})*_xlfn.STDEV.S({rng}))"
        )


def _es_dollar_formula(method: str, max_data_row: int, alpha: float, pv_ref: str) -> str:
    """Return the Excel formula for 1-Day ES ($) — positive = loss.

    Historical: ES = E[loss | loss > VaR] where loss = -return
                -AVERAGEIF(returns < VaR_threshold) * V
    Parametric: -V * (mu - sigma * phi(z) / alpha)
    """
    confidence = 1.0 - alpha
    rng = f"C$3:C${max_data_row}"
    if method == "Historical":
        var_threshold = f"PERCENTILE({rng},{alpha})"
        return f'=-AVERAGEIF({rng},"<"&{var_threshold})*{pv_ref}'
    else:
        return (
            f"=-{pv_ref}*(AVERAGE({rng})"
            f"-_xlfn.STDEV.S({rng})"
            f"*_xlfn.NORM.DIST(_xlfn.NORM.S.INV({confidence}),0,1,FALSE)/{alpha})"
        )


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Core export (shared between Historical and Parametric)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


def _export_sheet(
    method: str,
    path: str,
    prices: pd.Series,
    ticker: str,
    n_days: int,
    portfolio_value: float,
    var_date: pd.Timestamp | None,
    stressed: bool,
    lookback: int | None,
    stress_start: str,
    stress_end: str,
    stress_label: str,
    var_confidence: float = 0.99,
    es_confidence: float = 0.975,
) -> str:
    """Create or append a VaR/ES sheet to an Excel workbook.

    ``method`` must be ``"Historical"`` or ``"Parametric"``.
    """

    # ---- 1. Workbook / sheet setup -----------------------------------------

    sheet_title = "VaR and ES"
    stressed_sheet_title = "Stressed VaR and ES"

    if stressed:
        workbook = openpyxl.load_workbook(path)
        worksheet = workbook.create_sheet(title=stressed_sheet_title)
    else:
        workbook = openpyxl.Workbook()
        worksheet = workbook.active
        assert worksheet is not None
        worksheet.title = sheet_title

    max_data_row = len(prices) + 1

    # ---- 2. Write data columns A-D -----------------------------------------

    _write_data_columns(worksheet, prices, max_data_row, method)

    # ---- 2b. Highlight sorted returns at 95% and 99% VaR positions ---------

    n_returns = max_data_row - 2  # returns start at row 3
    for alpha, fill in [(0.05, VAR_95_FILL), (0.01, VAR_99_FILL)]:
        pos = alpha * n_returns
        lo = math.floor(pos)
        hi = math.ceil(pos)
        for k in {lo, hi}:
            if 1 <= k <= n_returns:
                worksheet.cell(row=k + 2, column=4).fill = fill  # column D

    # ---- 3. Build parameter entries ----------------------------------------

    date_str = var_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") if var_date is not None else ""

    if stressed:
        param_entries: list[SummaryRow] = [
            ["Method", method, ""],
            ["Ticker", ticker, ""],
            ["VaR Date", date_str, ""],
            ["Portfolio Value ($)", portfolio_value, ""],
            ["N-Day Horizon", n_days, ""],
            ["Stress Period Start Date", stress_start, ""],
            ["Stress Period End Date", stress_end, ""],
            ["Stress Period", stress_label, ""],
        ]
    else:
        param_entries = [
            ["Method", method, ""],
            ["Ticker", ticker, ""],
            ["VaR Date", date_str, ""],
            ["Portfolio Value ($)", portfolio_value, ""],
            ["N-Day Horizon", n_days, ""],
            ["Return Observations", lookback - 1 if lookback else "", ""],
        ]

    # ---- 4. Compute row layout ---------------------------------------------
    #
    # Layout (0-based indices into summary_data):
    #   [0]       Parameter header
    #   [1..N]    param_entries   (N = len(param_entries))
    #   [N+1]     separator
    #   [N+2]     Standard header  (Risk Metric | 99% VaR ($) | 97.5% ES ($))
    #   [N+3]     Standard 1-Day
    #   [N+4]     Standard 10-Day Scaled
    #   [N+5]     separator
    #   [N+6]     Custom header   (Risk Metric | VaR X% | ES Y%)
    #   [N+7]     Custom 1-Day
    #   [N+8]     Custom 10-Day Scaled
    #   [N+9]     Custom n-Day Scaled  (only when n_days != 10)

    summary_start_row = 2
    summary_start_col = 7  # Column G

    N_params = len(param_entries)
    # Portfolio Value is always param_entries[3]; entries start at absolute index 1
    portfolio_value_abs_idx = 1 + 3  # = 4
    pv_ref = f"$H${summary_start_row + portfolio_value_abs_idx}"

    param_header_idx = 0
    param_separator_idx = N_params + 1

    std_header_idx = param_separator_idx + 1
    std_1day_idx = std_header_idx + 1
    std_10day_idx = std_1day_idx + 1
    std_separator_idx = std_10day_idx + 1

    custom_header_idx = std_separator_idx + 1
    custom_1day_idx = custom_header_idx + 1
    custom_10day_idx = custom_1day_idx + 1
    custom_nday_idx: int | None = None
    if n_days != 10:
        custom_nday_idx = custom_10day_idx + 1

    # ---- 5. Build standard table (fixed 99% VaR / 97.5% ES) ----------------

    # Only show custom table when the selected levels differ from the standard (99%/97.5%)
    show_custom = not (var_confidence == 0.99 and es_confidence == 0.975)

    std_1day_h = f"H{summary_start_row + std_1day_idx}"
    std_1day_i = f"I{summary_start_row + std_1day_idx}"

    std_header_label = "Standard Stressed Risk Summary" if stressed else "Standard Risk Summary"

    std_rows: list[SummaryRow] = [
        [std_header_label, "99% VaR ($)", "97.5% ES ($)"],
        ["1-Day",
         _var_dollar_formula(method, max_data_row, 0.01, pv_ref),
         _es_dollar_formula(method, max_data_row, 0.025, pv_ref)],
        ["10-Day Scaled",
         f"={std_1day_h} * SQRT(10)",
         f"={std_1day_i} * SQRT(10)"],
    ]
    std_nday_idx: int | None = None
    if n_days != 10 and not show_custom:
        std_nday_idx = std_10day_idx + 1
        std_rows.append([
            f"{n_days}-Day Scaled",
            f"={std_1day_h} * SQRT({n_days})",
            f"={std_1day_i} * SQRT({n_days})",
        ])

    # ---- 6. Build custom table (user-selected confidence levels) ------------

    var_alpha = 1.0 - var_confidence
    es_alpha = 1.0 - es_confidence
    var_conf_label = f"{var_confidence * 100:g}%"
    es_conf_label = f"{es_confidence * 100:g}%"

    custom_1day_h = f"H{summary_start_row + custom_1day_idx}"
    custom_1day_i = f"I{summary_start_row + custom_1day_idx}"

    custom_header_label = "Stressed Risk Summary" if stressed else "Risk Summary"

    custom_rows: list[SummaryRow] = [
        [custom_header_label, f"{var_conf_label} VaR ($)", f"{es_conf_label} ES ($)"],
        ["1-Day",
         _var_dollar_formula(method, max_data_row, var_alpha, pv_ref),
         _es_dollar_formula(method, max_data_row, es_alpha, pv_ref)],
        ["10-Day Scaled",
         f"={custom_1day_h} * SQRT(10)",
         f"={custom_1day_i} * SQRT(10)"],
    ]
    if n_days != 10:
        custom_rows.append([
            f"{n_days}-Day Scaled",
            f"={custom_1day_h} * SQRT({n_days})",
            f"={custom_1day_i} * SQRT({n_days})",
        ])

    # ---- 7. Assemble full summary ------------------------------------------

    empty_row: SummaryRow = ["", "", ""]
    summary_data: list[SummaryRow] = []
    summary_data.append(["Parameter", "Value", ""])       # index 0
    summary_data.extend(param_entries)                    # indices 1..N
    summary_data.append(empty_row)                        # index N+1
    summary_data.extend(std_rows)                         # indices N+2..N+4
    if show_custom:
        summary_data.append(empty_row)                    # index N+5
        summary_data.extend(custom_rows)                  # indices N+6..

    # ---- 9. Write and style the summary ------------------------------------

    # Indices of param-section rows (skip col I for these)
    param_all_indices = {param_header_idx} | set(range(1, 1 + N_params))

    # Which rows to right-align value (col H) — param entries except Portfolio Value
    right_align_indices = set(range(1, 1 + N_params)) - {portfolio_value_abs_idx}

    # Which rows get money ($) formatting
    money_format_indices: set[int] = {
        portfolio_value_abs_idx,
        std_1day_idx, std_10day_idx,
    }
    if std_nday_idx is not None:
        money_format_indices.add(std_nday_idx)
    if show_custom:
        money_format_indices |= {custom_1day_idx, custom_10day_idx}
        if custom_nday_idx is not None:
            money_format_indices.add(custom_nday_idx)

    # Which rows get dark-blue header styling
    section_header_indices = {param_header_idx, std_header_idx}
    if show_custom:
        section_header_indices.add(custom_header_idx)

    # Which rows skip all styling (separators)
    unstyled_indices = {param_separator_idx}
    if show_custom:
        unstyled_indices.add(std_separator_idx)

    for data_index, row_data in enumerate(summary_data):
        sheet_row = summary_start_row + data_index
        for col_offset, value in enumerate(row_data):
            # Third column (col I) is unused for parameter rows
            if data_index in param_all_indices and col_offset == 2:
                continue

            col = summary_start_col + col_offset
            cell = worksheet.cell(row=sheet_row, column=col, value=value)  # type: ignore[arg-type]

            # Skip styling for empty separators
            if data_index in unstyled_indices:
                continue

            cell.border = THIN_BORDER

            if data_index in section_header_indices:
                cell.fill = HEADER_FILL
                cell.font = HEADER_FONT
                if col == 8:
                    cell.alignment = Alignment(horizontal="right")
                elif col == 9 and data_index != param_header_idx:
                    cell.alignment = Alignment(horizontal="right")

            if data_index in right_align_indices and col_offset == 1:
                cell.alignment = Alignment(horizontal="right")

            if col in (8, 9):  # Columns H and I
                if data_index in money_format_indices:
                    cell.number_format = '"$"#,##0.00'

    # ---- 10. Column widths -------------------------------------------------

    column_widths = {
        "A": 12, "B": 15, "C": 20, "D": 15,
        "E": 5, "F": 5,
        "G": 27, "H": 24, "I": 24,
    }
    for column_letter, width in column_widths.items():
        worksheet.column_dimensions[column_letter].width = width

    # ---- 11. Save ----------------------------------------------------------

    workbook.save(path)
    action = "sheet added" if stressed else "report saved"
    logger.debug(f"{method} VaR ES {action}: {path}")
    return path


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# API -- thin wrappers around _export_sheet
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


def export_historical_var_sheet(
    path: str,
    prices: pd.Series,
    ticker: str,
    n_days: int,
    portfolio_value: float,
    var_date: pd.Timestamp | None = None,
    stressed: bool = False,
    lookback: int | None = None,
    stress_start: str = "",
    stress_end: str = "",
    stress_label: str = "",
    var_confidence: float = 0.99,
    es_confidence: float = 0.975,
) -> str:
    """Create or append a Historical VaR/ES sheet to an Excel workbook."""
    return _export_sheet(
        "Historical", path, prices, ticker, n_days, portfolio_value,
        var_date, stressed, lookback, stress_start, stress_end, stress_label,
        var_confidence, es_confidence,
    )


def export_parametric_var_sheet(
    path: str,
    prices: pd.Series,
    ticker: str,
    n_days: int,
    portfolio_value: float,
    var_date: pd.Timestamp | None = None,
    stressed: bool = False,
    lookback: int | None = None,
    stress_start: str = "",
    stress_end: str = "",
    stress_label: str = "",
    var_confidence: float = 0.99,
    es_confidence: float = 0.975,
) -> str:
    """Create or append a Parametric VaR/ES sheet to an Excel workbook."""
    return _export_sheet(
        "Parametric", path, prices, ticker, n_days, portfolio_value,
        var_date, stressed, lookback, stress_start, stress_end, stress_label,
        var_confidence, es_confidence,
    )


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Report-level exports (output dir + both normal & stressed sheets)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


def export_historical_var_report(
    prices: pd.Series,
    ticker: str,
    n_days: int,
    portfolio_value: float,
    var_date: pd.Timestamp | None,
    lookback: int,
    stressed_prices: pd.Series,
    stress_start: str,
    stress_end: str,
    stress_label: str,
    var_confidence: float = 0.99,
    es_confidence: float = 0.975,
) -> str:
    """Generate a full Historical VaR Excel report (normal + stressed sheets)."""
    output_dir = make_output_dir()
    date_str = var_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") if var_date else ""
    excel_path = os.path.join(output_dir, f"{ticker}_{date_str}_Historical_VaR.xlsx")

    export_historical_var_sheet(
        path=excel_path, prices=prices, ticker=ticker, n_days=n_days,
        portfolio_value=portfolio_value, var_date=var_date, stressed=False,
        lookback=lookback, var_confidence=var_confidence, es_confidence=es_confidence,
    )
    export_historical_var_sheet(
        path=excel_path, prices=stressed_prices, ticker=ticker, n_days=n_days,
        portfolio_value=portfolio_value, var_date=var_date, stressed=True,
        stress_start=stress_start, stress_end=stress_end, stress_label=stress_label,
        var_confidence=var_confidence, es_confidence=es_confidence,
    )
    return excel_path


def export_parametric_var_report(
    prices: pd.Series,
    ticker: str,
    n_days: int,
    portfolio_value: float,
    var_date: pd.Timestamp | None,
    lookback: int,
    stressed_prices: pd.Series,
    stress_start: str,
    stress_end: str,
    stress_label: str,
    var_confidence: float = 0.99,
    es_confidence: float = 0.975,
) -> str:
    """Generate a full Parametric VaR Excel report (normal + stressed sheets)."""
    output_dir = make_output_dir()
    date_str = var_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") if var_date else ""
    excel_path = os.path.join(output_dir, f"{ticker}_{date_str}_Parametric_VaR.xlsx")

    export_parametric_var_sheet(
        path=excel_path, prices=prices, ticker=ticker, n_days=n_days,
        portfolio_value=portfolio_value, var_date=var_date, stressed=False,
        lookback=lookback, var_confidence=var_confidence, es_confidence=es_confidence,
    )
    export_parametric_var_sheet(
        path=excel_path, prices=stressed_prices, ticker=ticker, n_days=n_days,
        portfolio_value=portfolio_value, var_date=var_date, stressed=True,
        stress_start=stress_start, stress_end=stress_end, stress_label=stress_label,
        var_confidence=var_confidence, es_confidence=es_confidence,
    )
    return excel_path