src/modules/forecasting.py

import streamlit as st
import pandas as pd
import sys
import os
import plotly.graph_objects as go
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
import numpy as np

# Import du module d'analyse
sys.path.append(os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), '..'))
from Analytics.VortexOutFlux import VortexOutFlux
from Analytics.DataSyncForecasting import actualiser_forecasting_depuis_prets

# === CSS AMÉLIORÉ - STYLE GOTHAM PROFESSIONNEL ===
def apply_forecasting_styles():
    st.markdown("""
    <style>
    /* === STYLES SPÉCIFIQUES MODULE FORECASTING === */
    
    /* Wrapper pour isolation */
    #forecasting-module {
        font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
    }
    
    /* Headers spécifiques */
    #forecasting-module h1 {
        font-size: 1.8rem !important;
        margin-bottom: 24px !important;
        color: #58a6ff !important;
        border-bottom: 2px solid rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.3);
        padding-bottom: 12px;
    }
    
    #forecasting-module h2 {
        font-size: 1.4rem !important;
        margin-bottom: 16px !important;
        color: #8b949e !important;
    }
    
    #forecasting-module h3 {
        font-size: 1.1rem !important;
        margin-bottom: 12px !important;
        color: #58a6ff !important;
    }
    
    /* Metrics cards pour KPIs */
    #forecasting-module [data-testid="stMetric"] {
        background: rgba(22, 27, 34, 0.7);
        border: 1px solid rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.4);
        padding: 16px !important;
        border-radius: 6px;
        box-shadow: 0 2px 8px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);
    }
    
    #forecasting-module [data-testid="stMetric"] label {
        color: #8b949e !important;
        font-size: 0.75rem !important;
        font-weight: 600 !important;
        text-transform: uppercase;
        letter-spacing: 0.8px;
    }
    
    #forecasting-module [data-testid="stMetric"] [data-testid="stMetricValue"] {
        color: #58a6ff !important;
        font-size: 1.6rem !important;
        font-weight: 700 !important;
    }
    
    #forecasting-module [data-testid="stMetric"] [data-testid="stMetricDelta"] {
        color: #54bd4b !important;
        font-size: 0.9rem !important;
    }
    
    /* Carte de prédiction style Palantir - MINIMALISTE */
    .forecast-card {
        background: rgba(22, 27, 34, 0.4);
        border: 1px solid rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.2);
        border-radius: 4px;
        padding: 16px;
        margin: 12px 0;
        transition: border-color 0.2s ease;
    }
    
    .forecast-card:hover {
        border-color: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.4);
    }
    
    .forecast-card::before {
        content: '';
        position: absolute;
        top: 0;
        left: 0;
        right: 0;
        height: 2px;
        background: linear-gradient(90deg, rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.8), rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.3));
    }
    
    .forecast-card-header {
        display: flex;
        justify-content: space-between;
        align-items: center;
        margin-bottom: 16px;
        padding-bottom: 12px;
        border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.2);
    }
    
    .forecast-card-title {
        font-size: 1.2rem;
        font-weight: 700;
        color: #c9d1d9;
        margin: 0;
    }
    
    .forecast-card-badge {
        background: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.15);
        color: #58a6ff;
        padding: 4px 12px;
        border-radius: 12px;
        font-size: 0.75rem;
        font-weight: 600;
        text-transform: uppercase;
        border: 1px solid rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.3);
    }
    
    .forecast-card-badge.positive {
        background: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.15);
        color: #58a6ff;
        border-color: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.3);
    }
    
    .forecast-card-badge.negative {
        background: rgba(139, 148, 158, 0.15);
        color: #8b949e;
        border-color: rgba(139, 148, 158, 0.3);
    }
    
    .forecast-card-body {
        color: #c9d1d9;
    }
    
    .forecast-card-row {
        display: flex;
        justify-content: space-between;
        padding: 10px 0;
        border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(48, 54, 61, 0.3);
    }
    
    .forecast-card-row:last-child {
        border-bottom: none;
    }
    
    .forecast-card-label {
        color: #8b949e;
        font-size: 0.9rem;
        font-weight: 500;
    }
    
    .forecast-card-value {
        color: #c9d1d9;
        font-weight: 600;
        font-size: 1rem;
    }
    
    .forecast-card-value.highlight {
        color: #58a6ff;
        font-size: 1.2rem;
        font-weight: 700;
    }
    
    /* Bloc d'interprétation */
    .interpretation-box {
        background: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.05);
        border-left: 4px solid #58a6ff;
        border-radius: 4px;
        padding: 16px;
        margin: 16px 0;
    }
    
    .interpretation-box h4 {
        color: #58a6ff !important;
        margin: 0 0 12px 0 !important;
        font-size: 1rem !important;
    }
    
    .interpretation-box p {
        color: #c9d1d9;
        margin: 8px 0;
        line-height: 1.6;
        font-size: 0.9rem;
    }
    
    /* Bloc métriques de performance */
    .metrics-performance {
        background: rgba(22, 27, 34, 0.6);
        border: 1px solid rgba(48, 54, 61, 0.8);
        border-radius: 6px;
        padding: 16px;
        margin: 16px 0;
    }
    
    .metrics-grid {
        display: grid;
        grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(200px, 1fr));
        gap: 16px;
        margin-top: 12px;
    }
    
    .metric-item {
        background: rgba(13, 17, 23, 0.8);
        padding: 12px;
        border-radius: 4px;
        border-left: 3px solid #58a6ff;
    }
    
    .metric-item-label {
        color: #8b949e;
        font-size: 0.75rem;
        text-transform: uppercase;
        letter-spacing: 0.5px;
        margin-bottom: 4px;
    }
    
    .metric-item-value {
        color: #58a6ff;
        font-size: 1.3rem;
        font-weight: 700;
    }
    
    /* Bouton de synchronisation - STYLE GOTHAM MONOCHROME */
    [data-testid="column"] .stButton[data-baseweb="button"] > button[kind="primary"] {
        background: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.15) !important;
        border: 2px solid #58a6ff !important;
        color: #58a6ff !important;
        font-weight: 700 !important;
        text-transform: uppercase;
        letter-spacing: 1px;
    }
    
    [data-testid="column"] .stButton[data-baseweb="button"] > button[kind="primary"]:hover {
        background: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.25) !important;
        border-color: #79b8ff !important;
        box-shadow: 0 0 20px rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.3) !important;
    }
    
    /* Divider */
    #forecasting-module hr {
        background: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.3);
        height: 2px;
        margin: 24px 0;
    }
    
    /* Alert boxes */
    #forecasting-module .stAlert {
        border-radius: 6px;
        padding: 12px 16px !important;
    }
    
    #forecasting-module .stAlert[kind="info"] {
        background: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.1) !important;
        border-left: 4px solid #58a6ff !important;
    }
    
    #forecasting-module .stAlert[kind="warning"] {
        background: rgba(243, 156, 18, 0.1) !important;
        border-left: 4px solid #f39c12 !important;
    }
    
    #forecasting-module .stAlert[kind="success"] {
        background: rgba(84, 189, 75, 0.1) !important;
        border-left: 4px solid #54bd4b !important;
    }
    
    /* Expanders */
    #forecasting-module .streamlit-expanderHeader {
        background: rgba(22, 27, 34, 0.7) !important;
        border-left: 3px solid rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.6) !important;
        padding: 12px 16px !important;
        font-weight: 600 !important;
        color: #8b949e !important;
    }
    
    #forecasting-module .streamlit-expanderHeader:hover {
        background: rgba(33, 38, 45, 0.9) !important;
        border-left-color: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.9) !important;
    }
    
    #forecasting-module .streamlit-expanderContent {
        background: rgba(13, 17, 23, 0.7);
        border: 1px solid rgba(48, 54, 61, 0.6);
        padding: 16px !important;
    }
    
    /* Animation de chargement */
    @keyframes pulse {
        0%, 100% { opacity: 1; }
        50% { opacity: 0.5; }
    }
    
    .loading-indicator {
        animation: pulse 2s ease-in-out infinite;
        color: #58a6ff;
        text-align: center;
        padding: 20px;
    }
    </style>
    """, unsafe_allow_html=True)

    
def render_forecast_card(month_data):
    """Génère une carte de prédiction mensuelle style Gotham"""
    
    date_str = month_data['Date'].strftime("%B %Y")
    montant = month_data['Montant_Predit']
    lower = month_data['Borne_Inf']
    upper = month_data['Borne_Sup']
    
    # Calcul de la marge d'erreur
    margin = ((upper - lower) / 2) / montant * 100 if montant > 0 else 0
    
    html = f"""
    <div class="forecast-card">
        <div class="forecast-card-header">
            <h4 class="forecast-card-title">{date_str}</h4>
            <span class="forecast-card-badge">Prédiction</span>
        </div>
        <div class="forecast-card-body">
            <div class="forecast-card-row">
                <span class="forecast-card-label">Montant Prédit</span>
                <span class="forecast-card-value highlight">{montant:,.0f} XOF</span>
            </div>
            <div class="forecast-card-row">
                <span class="forecast-card-label">Intervalle de Confiance (95%)</span>
                <span class="forecast-card-value">{lower:,.0f} - {upper:,.0f} XOF</span>
            </div>
            <div class="forecast-card-row">
                <span class="forecast-card-label">Marge d'Erreur</span>
                <span class="forecast-card-value">± {margin:.1f}%</span>
            </div>
        </div>
    </div>
    """
    return html

def show_forecasting_module(client, sheet_name):
    """Module principal de prévision des flux de sortie"""
    
    # Appliquer les styles
    apply_forecasting_styles()
    
    # Wrapper pour isolation
    st.markdown('<div id="forecasting-module">', unsafe_allow_html=True)
    
    st.header("JASMINE - PRÉDICTION DES FLUX DE SORTIE")
    st.caption("Analyse prédictive en temps réel basée sur la régression linéaire")
    
    # === SECTION SYNCHRONISATION ===
    st.divider()
    
    col_sync1, col_sync2 = st.columns([3, 1])
    
    with col_sync1:
        st.markdown("""
        <div style="background: rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.05); border-left: 4px solid #58a6ff; padding: 12px; border-radius: 4px;">
            <p style="color: #8b949e; margin: 0; font-size: 0.9rem;">
                <strong style="color: #58a6ff;"> Synchronisation automatique :</strong> 
                Les données de flux de sortie sont calculées automatiquement depuis les déblocages de prêts (Prets_Master).
                Cliquez sur le bouton pour actualiser.
            </p>
        </div>
        """, unsafe_allow_html=True)
    
    with col_sync2:
        if st.button(" Synchroniser", use_container_width=True, type="primary"):
            with st.spinner("Synchronisation en cours..."):
                result = actualiser_forecasting_depuis_prets(client, sheet_name)
                
                if result['success']:
                    stats = result['stats']
                    st.success(f"✅ {result['message']}")
                    
                    # Afficher les détails
                    with st.expander(" Détails de la synchronisation", expanded=True):
                        col1, col2, col3 = st.columns(3)
                        
                        with col1:
                            st.metric("Mois Conservés", stats['nb_conserves'], 
                                     help="Mois gardés de l'historique manuel")
                        with col2:
                            st.metric("Mois Mis à Jour", stats['nb_mis_a_jour'],
                                     help="Mois recalculés depuis Prets_Master")
                        with col3:
                            st.metric("Mois Ajoutés", stats['nb_ajoutes'],
                                     help="Nouveaux mois détectés")
                        
                        if stats['nb_mis_a_jour'] > 0:
                            st.info(f"**Mois mis à jour :** {', '.join(stats['mois_mis_a_jour'])}")
                        
                        if stats['nb_ajoutes'] > 0:
                            st.success(f"**Nouveaux mois ajoutés :** {', '.join(stats['mois_ajoutes'])}")
                    
                    # Forcer le rechargement
                    st.rerun()
                else:
                    st.error(f"❌ {result['message']}")
    
    try:
        # Connexion à Google Sheets
        sh = client.open(sheet_name)
        ws_forecasting = sh.worksheet("Forecasting")
        
        # Chargement des données
        df_forecasting = pd.DataFrame(ws_forecasting.get_all_records())
        
        if df_forecasting.empty or len(df_forecasting) < 2:
            st.warning("⚠️ Données insuffisantes pour effectuer une prédiction. Minimum 2 points de données requis.")
            st.markdown('</div>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
            return
        
        # Vérification des colonnes
        if 'Date' not in df_forecasting.columns or 'Montant_Total_Sortie' not in df_forecasting.columns:
            st.error("❌ Structure de données invalide. Colonnes requises : 'Date', 'Montant_Total_Sortie'")
            st.markdown('</div>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
            return
        
        # Initialisation de l'analyseur
        analyzer = VortexOutFlux(df_forecasting)
        
        # Section 1 : Vue d'ensemble des données
        st.divider()
        st.subheader(" Vue d'Ensemble des Données Historiques")
        
        col1, col2, col3, col4 = st.columns(4)
        
        with col1:
            nb_points = len(analyzer.df)
            st.metric("Points de Données", nb_points)
        
        with col2:
            flux_moyen = analyzer.df['Montant_Total_Sortie'].mean()
            st.metric("Flux Moyen", f"{flux_moyen:,.0f} XOF")
        
        with col3:
            flux_total = analyzer.df['Montant_Total_Sortie'].sum()
            st.metric("Flux Total", f"{flux_total:,.0f} XOF")
        
        with col4:
            date_debut = analyzer.df['Date'].min().strftime("%m/%Y")
            date_fin = analyzer.df['Date'].max().strftime("%m/%Y")
            st.metric("Période", f"{date_debut} - {date_fin}")
        
        # Section 2 : Prédictions
        st.divider()
        st.subheader(" Prédictions pour les 3 Prochains Mois")
        
        with st.spinner("Calcul des prédictions en cours..."):
            predictions_result = analyzer.predict_next_months(n_months=3)
        
        if 'error' in predictions_result:
            st.error(f"❌ {predictions_result['error']}")
            st.markdown('</div>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
            return
        
        predictions_df = predictions_result['predictions']
        models = predictions_result['models']
        
        # Affichage des cartes de prédiction
        cols = st.columns(3)
        for idx, (_, row) in enumerate(predictions_df.iterrows()):
            with cols[idx]:
                st.markdown(render_forecast_card(row), unsafe_allow_html=True)
        
        # Section 3 : Analyse de Tendance et Interprétation
        st.divider()
        st.subheader(" Analyse de Tendance")
        
        interpretations = analyzer.get_interpretation(models)
        
        # Affichage de la tendance principale
        tendance_badge_class = "positive" if interpretations['tendance'] == "CROISSANCE" else "negative"
        
        st.markdown(f"""
        <div class="forecast-card">
            <div class="forecast-card-header">
                <h4 class="forecast-card-title">Tendance Détectée</h4>
                <span class="forecast-card-badge {tendance_badge_class}">{interpretations['tendance']}</span>
            </div>
            <div class="forecast-card-body">
                <div class="forecast-card-row">
                    <span class="forecast-card-label">Variation Mensuelle Moyenne</span>
                    <span class="forecast-card-value highlight">{abs(interpretations['pente_mensuelle']):,.0f} XOF/mois ({interpretations['pct_variation']:.1f}%)</span>
                </div>
                <div class="forecast-card-row">
                    <span class="forecast-card-label">Force de la Corrélation</span>
                    <span class="forecast-card-value">{interpretations['force_correlation'].upper()}</span>
                </div>
                <div class="forecast-card-row">
                    <span class="forecast-card-label">Qualité du Modèle</span>
                    <span class="forecast-card-value">{interpretations['qualite_modele'].upper()}</span>
                </div>
            </div>
        </div>
        """, unsafe_allow_html=True)
        
        # Interprétation textuelle
        st.markdown(f"""
        <div class="interpretation-box">
            <h4> Interprétation</h4>
            <p><strong>Tendance :</strong> {interpretations['message_principal']}</p>
            <p><strong>Fiabilité :</strong> {interpretations['message_fiabilite']}</p>
            <p><strong>Précision :</strong> {interpretations['message_precision']}</p>
        </div>
        """, unsafe_allow_html=True)
        
        # Section 4 : Métriques de Performance du Modèle
        st.divider()
        st.subheader(" Performance du Modèle")
        
        col1, col2, col3, col4, col5 = st.columns(5)
        
        with col1:
            st.metric("R² (R-Carré)", f"{models['r_squared']:.3f}", 
                     help="Coefficient de détermination - Pourcentage de variance expliquée")
        
        with col2:
            st.metric("R (Corrélation)", f"{models['r_coefficient']:.3f}",
                     help="Coefficient de corrélation")
        
        with col3:
            st.metric("MAE", f"{models['mae']:,.0f} XOF",
                     help="Mean Absolute Error - Erreur moyenne absolue")
        
        with col4:
            st.metric("RMSE", f"{models['rmse']:,.0f} XOF",
                     help="Root Mean Squared Error - Erreur quadratique moyenne")
        
        with col5:
            pente_jour = models['pente']
            st.metric("Pente", f"{pente_jour:.2f} XOF/jour",
                     help="Croissance par jour ordinal")
        
        # Section 5 : Visualisations
        st.divider()
        st.subheader(" Visualisations Analytiques")
        
        # Préparation des données de visualisation
        viz_data = analyzer.generate_visualization_data(predictions_result)
        
        # Graphique principal : Historique + Prédictions
        fig_main = go.Figure()
        
        # Données historiques
        fig_main.add_trace(go.Scatter(
            x=viz_data['historical']['dates'],
            y=viz_data['historical']['values'],
            mode='lines+markers',
            name='Flux Historiques',
            line=dict(color='#58a6ff', width=2),
            marker=dict(size=8, symbol='circle')
        ))
        
        # Prédictions futures
        fig_main.add_trace(go.Scatter(
            x=viz_data['future']['dates'],
            y=viz_data['future']['predictions'],
            mode='lines+markers',
            name='Prédictions',
            line=dict(color='#54bd4b', width=2, dash='dash'),
            marker=dict(size=10, symbol='diamond')
        ))
        
        # Intervalle de confiance
        fig_main.add_trace(go.Scatter(
            x=viz_data['future']['dates'] + viz_data['future']['dates'][::-1],
            y=viz_data['future']['upper_bound'] + viz_data['future']['lower_bound'][::-1],
            fill='toself',
            fillcolor='rgba(84, 189, 75, 0.2)',
            line=dict(color='rgba(84, 189, 75, 0)'),
            name='Intervalle de Confiance (95%)',
            showlegend=True
        ))
        
        fig_main.update_layout(
            title=dict(
                text="Flux de Sortie Mensuels : Historique & Prédictions",
                font=dict(size=16, color='#58a6ff')
            ),
            xaxis=dict(
                title="Date",
                gridcolor='rgba(48, 54, 61, 0.3)',
                color='#8b949e'
            ),
            yaxis=dict(
                title="Montant (XOF)",
                gridcolor='rgba(48, 54, 61, 0.3)',
                color='#8b949e'
            ),
            plot_bgcolor='rgba(13, 17, 23, 0.8)',
            paper_bgcolor='rgba(22, 27, 34, 0.9)',
            font=dict(color='#c9d1d9', family='Space Grotesk'),
            hovermode='x unified',
            legend=dict(
                bgcolor='rgba(22, 27, 34, 0.8)',
                bordercolor='rgba(88, 166, 255, 0.3)',
                borderwidth=1
            ),
            height=500
        )
        
        st.plotly_chart(fig_main, use_container_width=True)
        
        # Graphiques secondaires : Résidus
        with st.expander(" Analyse des Résidus (Diagnostic du Modèle)", expanded=False):
            fig_residuals = make_subplots(
                rows=1, cols=2,
                subplot_titles=("Graphique des Résidus", "Distribution des Résidus"),
                specs=[[{"type": "scatter"}, {"type": "histogram"}]]
            )
            
            # Graphique des résidus
            fig_residuals.add_trace(
                go.Scatter(
                    x=viz_data['residuals']['predictions'],
                    y=viz_data['residuals']['values'],
                    mode='markers',
                    marker=dict(color='#58a6ff', size=8),
                    name='Résidus'
                ),
                row=1, col=1
            )
            
            # Ligne à zéro
            fig_residuals.add_hline(
                y=0, line_dash="dash", line_color="#f39c12",
                row=1, col=1
            )
            
            # Distribution des résidus
            fig_residuals.add_trace(
                go.Histogram(
                    x=viz_data['residuals']['values'],
                    marker=dict(color='#58a6ff', line=dict(color='#c9d1d9', width=1)),
                    name='Distribution',
                    nbinsx=15
                ),
                row=1, col=2
            )
            
            fig_residuals.update_xaxes(title_text="Valeurs Prédites (XOF)", row=1, col=1, gridcolor='rgba(48, 54, 61, 0.3)', color='#8b949e')
            fig_residuals.update_yaxes(title_text="Résidus (XOF)", row=1, col=1, gridcolor='rgba(48, 54, 61, 0.3)', color='#8b949e')
            fig_residuals.update_xaxes(title_text="Résidus (XOF)", row=1, col=2, gridcolor='rgba(48, 54, 61, 0.3)', color='#8b949e')
            fig_residuals.update_yaxes(title_text="Fréquence", row=1, col=2, gridcolor='rgba(48, 54, 61, 0.3)', color='#8b949e')
            
            fig_residuals.update_layout(
                plot_bgcolor='rgba(13, 17, 23, 0.8)',
                paper_bgcolor='rgba(22, 27, 34, 0.9)',
                font=dict(color='#c9d1d9', family='Space Grotesk'),
                showlegend=False,
                height=400
            )
            
            st.plotly_chart(fig_residuals, use_container_width=True)
            
            st.caption("**Note :** Les résidus doivent être aléatoirement distribués autour de zéro pour un bon modèle.")
        
        # Section 6 : Tableau des données
        with st.expander(" Tableau Détaillé des Prédictions", expanded=False):
            # Formatage du DataFrame pour l'affichage
            display_df = predictions_df.copy()
            display_df['Date'] = display_df['Date'].dt.strftime('%B %Y')
            display_df['Montant_Predit'] = display_df['Montant_Predit'].apply(lambda x: f"{x:,.0f} XOF")
            display_df['Borne_Inf'] = display_df['Borne_Inf'].apply(lambda x: f"{x:,.0f} XOF")
            display_df['Borne_Sup'] = display_df['Borne_Sup'].apply(lambda x: f"{x:,.0f} XOF")
            
            display_df.columns = ['Date', 'Montant Prédit', 'Borne Inférieure (95%)', 'Borne Supérieure (95%)']
            
            st.dataframe(display_df, use_container_width=True, hide_index=True)
        
        # Section 7 : Informations complémentaires
        st.divider()
        st.info("""
        **ℹ️ À Propos de ce Modèle**
        
        - **Modèle utilisé :** Régression Linéaire avec Intervalles de Confiance à 95%
        - **Actualisation :** Les prédictions se mettent à jour automatiquement à chaque ajout de données dans la feuille "Forecasting"
        - **Utilisation :** Ce modèle est adapté pour des tendances linéaires. Pour des patterns saisonniers complexes, envisagez des modèles avancés (SARIMA, Prophet)
        - **Recommandation :** Vérifiez régulièrement les résidus et le R² pour assurer la qualité du modèle
        """)
        
    except Exception as e:
        st.error(f"❌ Erreur lors du chargement des données : {e}")
        st.exception(e)
    
    st.markdown('</div>', unsafe_allow_html=True)