# ======================== # IMPORTS # ======================== import os import pandas as pd import requests import numpy as np from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error, mean_squared_error from tensorflow.keras.models import Sequential from tensorflow.keras.layers import LSTM, Dense import streamlit as st from prophet import Prophet import plotly.graph_objects as go import math # ======================== # CONFIGURATION # ======================== API_KEY = "579b464db66ec23bdd000001cff99e32ded74c1e60ee264b550dd5c6" RESOURCE_ID = "35985678-0d79-46b4-9ed6-6f13308a1d24" TRAIN_EPOCHS = 10 FORECAST_HORIZON = 30 LOOK_BACK = 7 FORECAST_DIR = "forecasts" os.makedirs(FORECAST_DIR, exist_ok=True) # ======================== # PAGE SETUP # ======================== st.set_page_config( page_title="🌾 Commodity Price Predictor", page_icon="🌱", layout="wide", initial_sidebar_state="expanded" ) st.markdown(""" """, unsafe_allow_html=True) # ======================== # LOAD DATA # ======================== @st.cache_data def load_data(): url = f"https://api.data.gov.in/resource/{RESOURCE_ID}?api-key={API_KEY}&format=json&limit=10000" response = requests.get(url) data = response.json() df = pd.DataFrame(data["records"]) df.columns = [c.replace(" ", "_") for c in df.columns] df["Arrival_Date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["Arrival_Date"], dayfirst=True) df["avg_price"] = ( df[["Min_Price", "Max_Price", "Modal_Price"]].astype(float).mean(axis=1) ) df = df.dropna(subset=["Commodity_Code", "avg_price", "Commodity"]) return df df = load_data() # ======================== # HELPERS # ======================== def prepare_series(df, code): temp = df[df["Commodity_Code"] == code][["Arrival_Date", "avg_price"]] temp = temp.groupby("Arrival_Date").mean().reset_index() temp = temp.sort_values("Arrival_Date") temp = temp.rename(columns={"Arrival_Date": "timestamp", "avg_price": "value"}) return temp def fill_dates(series_df): all_days = pd.date_range(series_df["timestamp"].min(), series_df["timestamp"].max(), freq="D") series_df = series_df.set_index("timestamp").reindex(all_days).interpolate().reset_index() series_df.columns = ["timestamp", "value"] return series_df def create_dataset(series, look_back=10): X, y = [], [] for i in range(len(series) - look_back): X.append(series[i : i + look_back]) y.append(series[i + look_back]) return np.array(X), np.array(y) # ======================== # UI HEADER # ======================== st.title("🌾 Commodity Price Predictor") st.markdown('

Predict future commodity prices using Deep Learning (LSTM), Facebook Prophet, and hybrid ensemble modeling

', unsafe_allow_html=True) # ======================== # SIDEBAR # ======================== with st.sidebar: st.header("📊 Forecast Settings") st.markdown("---") commodity_list = df["Commodity"].unique() selected_commodity = st.selectbox( "🌾 Select Commodity:", sorted(commodity_list), help="Choose a commodity to forecast" ) st.markdown("---") st.subheader("⚙️ Model Configuration") st.info(f""" **Current Settings:** - Forecast Horizon: {FORECAST_HORIZON} days - Look Back Period: {LOOK_BACK} days - Training Epochs: {TRAIN_EPOCHS} - Hybrid Weight: 60% LSTM, 40% Prophet """) st.markdown("---") st.subheader("📈 About the Models") with st.expander("LSTM Neural Network"): st.write("Deep learning model that learns temporal patterns in price data") with st.expander("Prophet"): st.write("Facebook's time series forecasting tool optimized for business data") with st.expander("Hybrid Ensemble"): st.write("Combines both models for improved accuracy and stability") # ======================== # MAIN CONTENT # ======================== col1, col2, col3 = st.columns([1, 2, 1]) with col2: forecast_button = st.button("🔮 Generate Forecast", use_container_width=True) if forecast_button: code = df[df["Commodity"] == selected_commodity]["Commodity_Code"].iloc[0] # Info card st.markdown(f'
🔄 Processing {selected_commodity} (Code: {code})...
', unsafe_allow_html=True) # Prepare and clean data series = fill_dates(prepare_series(df, code)) values = series["value"].values.reshape(-1, 1) scaler = MinMaxScaler() scaled = scaler.fit_transform(values) X, y = create_dataset(scaled, LOOK_BACK) X = np.reshape(X, (X.shape[0], X.shape[1], 1)) # ======================== # PROGRESS TRACKING # ======================== progress_bar = st.progress(0) status_text = st.empty() # ======================== # LSTM MODEL # ======================== status_text.text("🤖 Training LSTM model...") progress_bar.progress(20) model = Sequential([ LSTM(32, input_shape=(LOOK_BACK, 1), activation="tanh"), Dense(1) ]) model.compile(optimizer="adam", loss="mse") model.fit(X, y, epochs=TRAIN_EPOCHS, batch_size=16, verbose=0) progress_bar.progress(40) status_text.text("✅ LSTM training complete") # Forecast with LSTM last_seq = scaled[-LOOK_BACK:] preds = [] for _ in range(FORECAST_HORIZON): pred = model.predict(last_seq.reshape(1, LOOK_BACK, 1), verbose=0) preds.append(pred[0][0]) last_seq = np.append(last_seq[1:], pred, axis=0) forecast_lstm = scaler.inverse_transform(np.array(preds).reshape(-1, 1)).flatten() # ======================== # PROPHET MODEL # ======================== status_text.text("📈 Training Prophet model...") progress_bar.progress(60) prophet_df = series.rename(columns={"timestamp": "ds", "value": "y"}) model_prophet = Prophet() model_prophet.fit(prophet_df) future = model_prophet.make_future_dataframe(periods=FORECAST_HORIZON) forecast_prophet = model_prophet.predict(future) prophet_values = forecast_prophet["yhat"].tail(FORECAST_HORIZON).values progress_bar.progress(80) status_text.text("✅ Prophet training complete") # ======================== # HYBRID (FINAL) FORECAST # ======================== status_text.text("🌿 Generating hybrid forecast...") progress_bar.progress(90) final_pred = 0.6 * forecast_lstm + 0.4 * prophet_values progress_bar.progress(100) status_text.text("✅ Forecast complete!") st.markdown('
', unsafe_allow_html=True) # ======================== # VISUALIZATION # ======================== st.subheader("📊 Forecast Visualization") # Create tabs for different views tab1, tab2, tab3 = st.tabs(["📈 Hybrid Forecast", "🔍 Model Comparison", "📉 Historical Context"]) with tab1: fig_final = go.Figure() fig_final.add_trace(go.Scatter( y=final_pred, mode="lines+markers", name="Hybrid Forecast", line=dict(color="#2e7d32", width=3), marker=dict(size=6), fill='tozeroy', fillcolor='rgba(46, 125, 50, 0.1)' )) fig_final.update_layout( title=f"🌾 30-Day Hybrid Forecast for {selected_commodity}", xaxis_title="Days Ahead", yaxis_title="Predicted Price (₹)", plot_bgcolor="white", hovermode="x unified", height=500, font=dict(size=12) ) st.plotly_chart(fig_final, use_container_width=True) with tab2: fig_compare = go.Figure() fig_compare.add_trace(go.Scatter( y=forecast_lstm, mode="lines", name="LSTM", line=dict(color="#1976d2", dash="dot") )) fig_compare.add_trace(go.Scatter( y=prophet_values, mode="lines", name="Prophet", line=dict(color="#f57c00", dash="dash") )) fig_compare.add_trace(go.Scatter( y=final_pred, mode="lines+markers", name="Hybrid Final", line=dict(color="#2e7d32", width=3) )) fig_compare.update_layout( title="Model Comparison", xaxis_title="Days Ahead", yaxis_title="Predicted Price (₹)", plot_bgcolor="white", hovermode="x unified", height=500 ) st.plotly_chart(fig_compare, use_container_width=True) with tab3: # Historical + Forecast fig_hist = go.Figure() hist_days = min(90, len(values)) fig_hist.add_trace(go.Scatter( y=values[-hist_days:].flatten(), mode="lines", name="Historical Prices", line=dict(color="#616161") )) fig_hist.add_trace(go.Scatter( y=final_pred, mode="lines", name="Forecast", line=dict(color="#2e7d32", width=2) )) fig_hist.update_layout( title=f"Historical Prices (Last {hist_days} days) + Forecast", xaxis_title="Time Period", yaxis_title="Price (₹)", plot_bgcolor="white", hovermode="x unified", height=500 ) st.plotly_chart(fig_hist, use_container_width=True) st.markdown('
', unsafe_allow_html=True) # ======================== # METRICS # ======================== st.subheader("📊 Model Performance Metrics") # Calculate metrics (comparing last 30 days if available) if len(values) >= FORECAST_HORIZON: mae_lstm = mean_absolute_error(values[-FORECAST_HORIZON:], forecast_lstm[-FORECAST_HORIZON:]) rmse_lstm = math.sqrt(mean_squared_error(values[-FORECAST_HORIZON:], forecast_lstm[-FORECAST_HORIZON:])) mae_prophet = mean_absolute_error(values[-FORECAST_HORIZON:], prophet_values) rmse_prophet = math.sqrt(mean_squared_error(values[-FORECAST_HORIZON:], prophet_values)) else: mae_lstm = rmse_lstm = mae_prophet = rmse_prophet = 0 col1, col2, col3 = st.columns(3) with col1: st.markdown(f'''

🤖 LSTM Model

MAE: ₹{mae_lstm:.2f}
RMSE: ₹{rmse_lstm:.2f}
''', unsafe_allow_html=True) with col2: st.markdown(f'''

📈 Prophet Model

MAE: ₹{mae_prophet:.2f}
RMSE: ₹{rmse_prophet:.2f}
''', unsafe_allow_html=True) with col3: avg_pred = np.mean(final_pred) min_pred = np.min(final_pred) max_pred = np.max(final_pred) st.markdown(f'''

🌿 Hybrid Forecast

Avg: ₹{avg_pred:.2f}
Range: ₹{min_pred:.2f} - ₹{max_pred:.2f}
''', unsafe_allow_html=True) st.markdown('
', unsafe_allow_html=True) # ======================== # FORECAST TABLE # ======================== st.subheader("📅 Detailed Forecast Data") forecast_df = pd.DataFrame({ "Day": np.arange(1, FORECAST_HORIZON + 1), "LSTM_Forecast": forecast_lstm, "Prophet_Forecast": prophet_values, "Final_Hybrid": final_pred }) st.dataframe( forecast_df.style.format({ "LSTM_Forecast": "₹{:.2f}", "Prophet_Forecast": "₹{:.2f}", "Final_Hybrid": "₹{:.2f}" }).background_gradient(subset=["Final_Hybrid"], cmap="Greens"), use_container_width=True, height=400 ) # ======================== # SUMMARY & DOWNLOAD # ======================== st.markdown(f'''
🎯 Average Predicted Price (Hybrid): ₹{avg_pred:.2f}
''', unsafe_allow_html=True) filename = f"{selected_commodity.replace(' ', '_')}_{code}_forecast.csv" forecast_df.to_csv(os.path.join(FORECAST_DIR, filename), index=False) col1, col2, col3 = st.columns([1, 1, 1]) with col2: st.download_button( "📥 Download Forecast CSV", data=forecast_df.to_csv(index=False), file_name=filename, use_container_width=True ) # ======================== # FOOTER # ======================== st.markdown('
', unsafe_allow_html=True) st.markdown("""

🌱 Powered by LSTM Neural Networks & Facebook Prophet | Data from Government of India API

""", unsafe_allow_html=True)