statement: AI agents will automate >30% of standard customer support tickets in major US retail firms by 2024-Q3.

rationale: Analyzing historical trends in labor with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.

category: labor

resolution_criteria: Determined via public economic reports and news search.

judged_rationale: Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.


statement: The cost of 1M output tokens for GPT-4 level models will drop below $0.05 by 2024-Q1.

rationale: Analyzing historical trends in compute with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.

category: compute

judged_rationale: Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.


statement: The US and China will sign a joint declaration or treaty on AI safety guidelines by 2024-Q4.

rationale: Analyzing historical trends in policy with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.

category: policy


statement: AI agents will automate >30% of standard customer support tickets in major US retail firms by 2024-Q2.


statement: A major government will mandate safety evaluations for models exceeding 1e25 FLOPs by 2024-Q1.


statement: Sovereign supercomputers in the EU will account for >15% of global training compute by 2024-Q4.


statement: Venture capital funding for semiconductor startups will reach an all-time high by 2024-Q3.

rationale: Analyzing historical trends in capital with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.

category: capital


statement: The BLS productivity index for the services sector will grow by >3.0% annually by 2024-Q2.

rationale: Analyzing historical trends in macro with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.

category: macro


statement: AI agents will automate >30% of standard customer support tickets in major US retail firms by 2024-Q4.


statement: A major central bank will mention 'artificial intelligence productivity impacts' in its rate decision notes by 2024-Q3.


statement: Venture capital funding for semiconductor startups will reach an all-time high by 2024-Q1.


statement: A study will find net software engineering employment in the US grew despite copilot adoption by 2024-Q3.


statement: A US state will pass legislation banning autonomous vehicles from freight transport by 2024-Q2.


statement: A major US warehouse operator will deploy humanoid robots for sorting by 2024-Q1.


statement: FRED data will show tech sector capital expenditure has increased by >40% year-over-year by 2024-Q3.


statement: A major central bank will mention 'artificial intelligence productivity impacts' in its rate decision notes by 2024-Q2.


statement: The price of electricity in major data center hubs will rise by >20% due to AI workloads by 2024-Q1.


statement: A leading AI lab will publish a research paper demonstrating 10x compute savings in training via new architectures by 2024-Q2.


statement: Tech giant capital expenditure on data centers will exceed $150B in a single fiscal year by 2024-Q3.


statement: An EU member state will issue the first major fine (>10M Euros) under the EU AI Act by 2024-Q3.


statement: A model trained with >1e26 FLOPs will be open-sourced by a major lab by 2024-Q3.


statement: The US GDP growth rate will exceed 3.5% for two consecutive quarters driven by productivity gains by 2024-Q2.


statement: The BLS productivity index for the services sector will grow by >3.0% annually by 2024-Q4.


statement: An AI-focused startup will go public at a valuation exceeding $50B by 2024-Q3.


statement: Sovereign supercomputers in the EU will account for >15% of global training compute by 2024-Q3.


statement: Venture capital funding for semiconductor startups will reach an all-time high by 2024-Q4.


statement: The cost of 1M output tokens for GPT-4 level models will drop below $0.05 by 2024-Q4.


statement: A tech firm with >1000 employees will replace its entire first-line IT support with an AI agent by 2024-Q4.


statement: A national union will successfully negotiate a contract containing specific AI deployment limits by 2024-Q1.


statement: A US state will pass legislation banning autonomous vehicles from freight transport by 2026-Q3.

rationale: Current projection for policy shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.

resolution_criteria: To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.

status: open


statement: A major cloud provider will announce a dedicated 100k GPU cluster for a single tenant by 2026-Q1.

rationale: Current projection for compute shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.


statement: An EU member state will issue the first major fine (>10M Euros) under the EU AI Act by 2026-Q1.


statement: A major government will mandate safety evaluations for models exceeding 1e25 FLOPs by 2026-Q2.


statement: A major government will mandate safety evaluations for models exceeding 1e25 FLOPs by 2026-Q1.


statement: AI agents will automate >30% of standard customer support tickets in major US retail firms by 2026-Q3.

rationale: Current projection for labor shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.


statement: A model trained with >1e26 FLOPs will be open-sourced by a major lab by 2026-Q2.


statement: A national union will successfully negotiate a contract containing specific AI deployment limits by 2026-Q4.


statement: The cost of 1M output tokens for GPT-4 level models will drop below $0.05 by 2026-Q4.


statement: An economic study will attribute a drop in youth employment in developed nations to entry-level automation by 2026-Q4.

rationale: Current projection for macro shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.


statement: Sovereign supercomputers in the EU will account for >15% of global training compute by 2026-Q3.


statement: Venture capital funding for semiconductor startups will reach an all-time high by 2026-Q4.

rationale: Current projection for capital shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.


statement: The number of remote data-labeler jobs globally will double due to RLHF demand by 2026-Q1.


statement: A major US warehouse operator will deploy humanoid robots for sorting by 2026-Q1.