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AgriFlow Matching Engine β Main Orchestrator
=============================================
Menggabungkan Layer 0 β 1 β 2 β 3 + handle 19 skenario edge case.
Public entrypoint:
run_matching(surplus_nodes, deficit_nodes, ...) -> MatchingReport
19 skenario edge case (Section 5.5.5) di-handle di sini melalui:
- Pre-processing (Layer 0): tier classification, stale data, emergency mode
- Constraint filtering (Layer 1): hard constraints di constraints.py
- Score adjustments (Layer 2): weight switching untuk Ramadan/Import policy
- Post-processing: Bulog priority split, equity tie-break, external opportunities
Author: AgriFlow Team
Version: 9.0
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import time
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from typing import Callable, Dict, List, Optional, Set
from . import scoring
from .allocation import allocate, equity_multiplier_value
from .constraints import (
BULOG_PROCUREMENT_KAB, generate_candidates, is_viable_pair,
)
from .models import (
Confidence, DemandNode, DemandSegment, EmergencyMode, Kabupaten,
LogisticsContext, MatchingReport, MatchResult, RouteBlackout,
SupplyNode, Tier, WeatherForecast,
)
# =============================================================================
# SCENARIO DETECTION (Section 5.5.5)
# =============================================================================
# Threshold untuk anomaly detection
PRICE_ANOMALY_SIGMA = 3.0
SUPPLY_DROP_WOW_THRESHOLD = 0.50 # 50% week-over-week
RAIN_HEAVY_MM = 50.0
RAIN_MEDIUM_MM = 20.0
STALE_DATA_HOURS = 24
def detect_stale_data(
nodes: List[SupplyNode | DemandNode],
threshold_hours: float = STALE_DATA_HOURS,
) -> List[SupplyNode | DemandNode]:
"""
Skenario C3: data > 24 jam dianggap stale.
Tidak di-drop, tapi di-flag confidence MEDIUM.
"""
cutoff = datetime.now() - timedelta(hours=threshold_hours)
stale = [n for n in nodes if n.timestamp < cutoff]
return stale
def detect_price_anomaly(
node: SupplyNode | DemandNode,
historical_median: float,
historical_std: float,
) -> bool:
"""
Skenario D3: harga > 3Ο dari rolling median dianggap outlier.
"""
if historical_std == 0:
return False
z_score = abs(node.price_per_kg - historical_median) / historical_std
return z_score > PRICE_ANOMALY_SIGMA
def detect_zero_demand(deficit_nodes: List[DemandNode], commodity_code: str) -> bool:
"""Skenario A4: tidak ada deficit untuk komoditas tertentu."""
return not any(d.commodity.code == commodity_code for d in deficit_nodes)
def detect_geographic_cluster_surplus(
surplus_nodes: List[SupplyNode],
commodity_code: str,
cluster_kab_ids: Set[str],
) -> bool:
"""
Skenario B3: regional cluster surplus.
Misal Madura: Sumenep + Pamekasan + Sampang + Bangkalan semua surplus β cluster.
"""
in_cluster = [
s for s in surplus_nodes
if s.commodity.code == commodity_code
and s.kabupaten.id in cluster_kab_ids
]
return len(in_cluster) >= max(2, len(cluster_kab_ids) // 2 + 1)
# Cluster definitions (Section 5.5.5 B3 contoh: Madura)
CLUSTER_MADURA: Set[str] = {
"3526", # Bangkalan
"3527", # Sampang
"3528", # Pamekasan
"3529", # Sumenep
}
# =============================================================================
# BULOG SPLIT (Skenario E3)
# =============================================================================
BULOG_RESERVE_PCT = 0.60 # 60% reserve untuk Bulog procurement
def apply_bulog_split(
surplus_nodes: List[SupplyNode],
bulog_procurement_kab: Optional[Set[str]] = None,
) -> tuple[List[SupplyNode], List[str]]:
"""
Skenario E3 Bulog Priority:
Untuk surplus di kab procurement aktif, reserve 60% volume untuk Bulog,
sisanya available untuk private matching.
Args:
surplus_nodes: list of supply nodes
bulog_procurement_kab: explicit set of kab IDs with active Bulog
procurement. Eksplisit > implicit β kalau None, fallback ke
module global BULOG_PROCUREMENT_KAB (untuk back-compat dengan
set_bulog_procurement()). Caller paralel HARUS pass eksplisit
untuk hindari race pada global.
Return (adjusted_surplus_nodes, warning_messages).
"""
active_kab = (
bulog_procurement_kab if bulog_procurement_kab is not None
else BULOG_PROCUREMENT_KAB
)
adjusted = []
warnings = []
for s in surplus_nodes:
if (s.commodity.code in {"beras_premium", "beras_medium", "jagung", "kedelai"}
and s.kabupaten.id in active_kab):
reserved = s.volume_tons * BULOG_RESERVE_PCT
available = s.volume_tons - reserved
if available <= 0:
warnings.append(
f"{s.kabupaten.nama} {s.commodity.nama}: "
f"100% reserved untuk Bulog procurement ({s.volume_tons}t)"
)
continue
new_s = SupplyNode(
kabupaten=s.kabupaten,
commodity=s.commodity,
volume_tons=available,
price_per_kg=s.price_per_kg,
harvest_age_days=s.harvest_age_days,
timestamp=s.timestamp,
data_source=s.data_source,
)
adjusted.append(new_s)
warnings.append(
f"{s.kabupaten.nama} {s.commodity.nama}: "
f"{reserved:.1f}t Bulog priority, {available:.1f}t available"
)
else:
adjusted.append(s)
return adjusted, warnings
# =============================================================================
# RAMADAN ADJUSTMENT (Skenario C1)
# =============================================================================
def is_ramadan_proximity(reference_date: Optional[datetime] = None) -> bool:
"""
Skenario C1: H-14 sebelum Idul Fitri.
Production: integrasi Hijri calendar API (Aladhan).
Fallback: hardcoded date untuk year terkini.
Catatan tim: ganti tanggal di bawah setiap tahun atau pakai
`data_sources.hijri_calendar.is_ramadan_period()`.
"""
reference_date = reference_date or datetime.now()
# Idul Fitri 2026: 20 Maret (kasar) β H-14 = 6 Maret 2026
idul_fitri_2026 = datetime(2026, 3, 20)
spike_window_start = idul_fitri_2026 - timedelta(days=21)
spike_window_end = idul_fitri_2026 - timedelta(days=1)
if spike_window_start <= reference_date <= spike_window_end:
return True
# Idul Fitri 2027: ~9 Maret 2027
idul_fitri_2027 = datetime(2027, 3, 9)
spike_window_start = idul_fitri_2027 - timedelta(days=21)
spike_window_end = idul_fitri_2027 - timedelta(days=1)
if spike_window_start <= reference_date <= spike_window_end:
return True
return False
# =============================================================================
# C4 β HOLIDAY CALENDAR (extends C1 Ramadan to multi-event)
# =============================================================================
def get_active_demand_event(
reference_date: Optional[datetime] = None,
) -> Optional[str]:
"""
Skenario C4: deteksi event demand spike yang sedang aktif.
Return event name: "RAMADAN" | "IMLEK" | "NATAL" | "SCHOOL_START" | None.
Window per event:
RAMADAN β H-21 to H-1 sebelum Idul Fitri (warisan dari C1)
IMLEK β H-7 to H-1 sebelum Chinese New Year (window pendek)
NATAL β H-21 to H-1 sebelum 25 Desember
SCHOOL_START β 2 minggu sebelum mid-Juli + mid-Januari (kos-kosan)
Priority order saat overlap: RAMADAN > NATAL > IMLEK > SCHOOL_START.
Production: ganti hardcoded tanggal dengan Hijri + Lunar calendar API.
"""
reference_date = reference_date or datetime.now()
yr = reference_date.year
# RAMADAN β re-use existing logic
if is_ramadan_proximity(reference_date):
return "RAMADAN"
# NATAL β H-21 to H-1
for natal_yr in (yr, yr - 1, yr + 1):
natal = datetime(natal_yr, 12, 25)
if natal - timedelta(days=21) <= reference_date <= natal - timedelta(days=1):
return "NATAL"
# IMLEK β hardcoded approximations (production: lunar calendar)
imlek_dates = {
2026: datetime(2026, 2, 17),
2027: datetime(2027, 2, 6),
2028: datetime(2028, 1, 26),
}
imlek = imlek_dates.get(yr) or imlek_dates.get(yr - 1)
if imlek:
if imlek - timedelta(days=7) <= reference_date <= imlek - timedelta(days=1):
return "IMLEK"
# SCHOOL_START β 2 minggu sebelum mid-Juli & mid-Januari
for school_start in (datetime(yr, 7, 15), datetime(yr, 1, 15)):
if school_start - timedelta(days=14) <= reference_date <= school_start:
return "SCHOOL_START"
return None
def _weights_for_event(event: Optional[str]) -> Dict[str, float]:
"""Map event name β weight profile dari scoring.py."""
if event == "RAMADAN":
return scoring.RAMADAN_WEIGHTS
if event == "IMLEK":
return scoring.IMLEK_WEIGHTS
if event == "NATAL":
return scoring.NATAL_WEIGHTS
if event == "SCHOOL_START":
return scoring.SCHOOL_START_WEIGHTS
return scoring.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS
# =============================================================================
# D6 β ROUTE BLACKOUT (mudik / demonstrasi / maintenance)
# =============================================================================
def is_route_blacked_out(
origin_id: str,
dest_id: str,
blackouts: List[RouteBlackout],
reference_date: datetime,
) -> Optional[RouteBlackout]:
"""
Skenario D6: cek apakah rute originβdest sedang ditutup pada reference_date.
Return RouteBlackout pertama yang matching, None kalau bersih.
Wildcard "*" pada origin/dest cocok semua kab.
"""
for b in blackouts:
if b.is_active(reference_date) and b.matches_route(origin_id, dest_id):
return b
return None
# =============================================================================
# E6 β CONTRACT RESERVE (generalized Bulog pattern)
# =============================================================================
def apply_contract_reserve(
surplus_nodes: List[SupplyNode],
contracts: Optional[Dict[tuple, float]] = None,
) -> tuple[List[SupplyNode], List[str]]:
"""
Skenario E6: generalisasi Bulog reserve pattern untuk contract farming
pre-commitment (mis. Carrefour MoU 70%, Indofood kontrak gula 50%).
Args:
contracts: Dict[(kab_id, commodity_code), reserve_pct_0_to_1]
mis. {("3506", "bawang_merah"): 0.70} β 70% bawang Kediri
reserved untuk kontrak, 30% available untuk spot matching.
Return (adjusted_surplus_nodes, warning_messages).
"""
if not contracts:
return list(surplus_nodes), []
adjusted = []
warnings = []
for s in surplus_nodes:
key = (s.kabupaten.id, s.commodity.code)
reserve_pct = contracts.get(key)
if reserve_pct is None or reserve_pct <= 0:
adjusted.append(s)
continue
reserved = s.volume_tons * reserve_pct
available = s.volume_tons - reserved
if available <= 0:
warnings.append(
f"{s.kabupaten.nama} {s.commodity.nama}: "
f"100% reserved untuk contract ({s.volume_tons:.1f}t)"
)
continue
new_s = SupplyNode(
kabupaten=s.kabupaten,
commodity=s.commodity,
volume_tons=available,
price_per_kg=s.price_per_kg,
harvest_age_days=s.harvest_age_days,
timestamp=s.timestamp,
data_source=s.data_source,
)
adjusted.append(new_s)
warnings.append(
f"{s.kabupaten.nama} {s.commodity.nama}: "
f"{reserved:.1f}t contract priority ({reserve_pct*100:.0f}%), "
f"{available:.1f}t available untuk spot matching"
)
return adjusted, warnings
# =============================================================================
# MAIN ENTRYPOINT
# =============================================================================
def run_matching(
surplus_nodes: List[SupplyNode],
deficit_nodes: List[DemandNode],
logistics: Optional[LogisticsContext] = None,
weather_forecasts: Optional[Dict[str, WeatherForecast]] = None,
historical_prices: Optional[Dict[str, tuple[float, float]]] = None,
# historical_prices: {commodity_code: (median, std)} untuk anomaly detection
import_policy_active: bool = False,
reference_date: Optional[datetime] = None,
force_strategy: Optional[str] = None,
route_blackouts: Optional[List[RouteBlackout]] = None,
contracts: Optional[Dict[tuple, float]] = None,
allow_grade_substitution: bool = False,
bulog_procurement_kab: Optional[Set[str]] = None,
equity_fn: Optional[Callable[[float], float]] = None,
) -> MatchingReport:
"""
AgriFlow Matching Engine β main entrypoint.
Args:
surplus_nodes: list semua kabupaten surplus untuk semua komoditas hari itu
deficit_nodes: list semua kabupaten deficit
logistics: konteks logistik global (BBM, BBM baseline)
weather_forecasts: dict (origin_id + dest_id) β WeatherForecast
historical_prices: dict commodity_code β (median, std) 30-day rolling
import_policy_active: skenario E4 β bobot price diturunkan
reference_date: untuk Ramadan detection (default: now)
force_strategy: "stable" | "greedy" untuk testing override
bulog_procurement_kab: set of kab IDs dengan Bulog procurement aktif
untuk run ini. Pass eksplisit kalau memanggil run_matching secara
paralel (mis. FastAPI multi-worker) supaya tidak race pada module
global. None β fallback ke BULOG_PROCUREMENT_KAB module-level
(di-set via set_bulog_procurement, back-compat untuk tests).
Returns:
MatchingReport dengan matches, unmatched, warnings, metadata.
Latency target: <500ms p99 untuk 38 kab Γ 19 komoditas (Section 5.5.4).
"""
t_start = time.perf_counter()
warnings: List[str] = []
external_opportunities: List[str] = []
logistics = logistics or LogisticsContext()
weather_forecasts = weather_forecasts or {}
historical_prices = historical_prices or {}
# =========================================================================
# PRE-PROCESSING
# =========================================================================
# Skenario C3 β stale data detection
stale_supply = detect_stale_data(surplus_nodes)
stale_demand = detect_stale_data(deficit_nodes)
# Build lookup set untuk identitas stable (kab_id + commodity_code) β
# menggunakan `in` operator pada list dataclass instance fragile karena
# bergantung pada object identity / __eq__ behavior.
stale_supply_keys = {(n.kabupaten.id, n.commodity.code) for n in stale_supply}
stale_demand_keys = {(n.kabupaten.id, n.commodity.code) for n in stale_demand}
if stale_supply or stale_demand:
warnings.append(
f"Stale data detected: {len(stale_supply)} supply, "
f"{len(stale_demand)} demand nodes >24h. Confidence downgraded."
)
# Skenario D3 β price anomaly: drop dari pool
if historical_prices:
clean_supply = []
for s in surplus_nodes:
stats = historical_prices.get(s.commodity.code)
if stats and detect_price_anomaly(s, stats[0], stats[1]):
warnings.append(
f"Price anomaly detected: {s.kabupaten.nama} {s.commodity.nama} "
f"@ Rp {s.price_per_kg:,.0f}/kg (median Rp {stats[0]:,.0f}). "
f"Excluded β manual review pending."
)
continue
clean_supply.append(s)
surplus_nodes = clean_supply
clean_demand = []
for d in deficit_nodes:
stats = historical_prices.get(d.commodity.code)
if stats and detect_price_anomaly(d, stats[0], stats[1]):
warnings.append(
f"Price anomaly detected: {d.kabupaten.nama} {d.commodity.nama} "
f"@ Rp {d.price_per_kg:,.0f}/kg. Excluded."
)
continue
clean_demand.append(d)
deficit_nodes = clean_demand
# Skenario E3 β Bulog procurement split
surplus_nodes, bulog_warnings = apply_bulog_split(
surplus_nodes, bulog_procurement_kab=bulog_procurement_kab
)
warnings.extend(bulog_warnings)
# Skenario E6 β Contract reserve (generalisasi Bulog untuk MoU swasta)
surplus_nodes, contract_warnings = apply_contract_reserve(surplus_nodes, contracts)
warnings.extend(contract_warnings)
# Skenario C1 + C4 β Holiday calendar (RAMADAN / IMLEK / NATAL / SCHOOL_START)
active_event = get_active_demand_event(reference_date)
if logistics.is_ramadan_proximity:
active_event = active_event or "RAMADAN"
ramadan_active = active_event == "RAMADAN"
if active_event:
weights = _weights_for_event(active_event)
event_label = {
"RAMADAN": "Pre-Ramadan/Idul Fitri",
"IMLEK": "Pre-Imlek",
"NATAL": "Pre-Natal",
"SCHOOL_START": "School-start kos-kosan",
}.get(active_event, active_event)
warnings.append(f"{event_label} spike mode aktif β "
f"bobot scoring disesuaikan untuk event ini.")
elif import_policy_active:
weights = scoring.IMPORT_POLICY_WEIGHTS
warnings.append("Import policy detected β bobot price diturunkan, "
"matching deprioritized untuk komoditas terdampak.")
else:
weights = scoring.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS
# Skenario A4 β zero demand check per komoditas
surplus_commodities = {s.commodity.code for s in surplus_nodes}
for comm_code in surplus_commodities:
if detect_zero_demand(deficit_nodes, comm_code):
external_opportunities.append(
f"{comm_code}: tidak ada internal demand. "
f"Saran: ekspor luar Jatim (Jakarta/Bali) atau Bulog procurement."
)
# Skenario B3 β geographic cluster surplus (Madura)
for comm_code in surplus_commodities:
if detect_geographic_cluster_surplus(surplus_nodes, comm_code, CLUSTER_MADURA):
cluster_supply = sum(
s.volume_tons for s in surplus_nodes
if s.commodity.code == comm_code and s.kabupaten.id in CLUSTER_MADURA
)
external_opportunities.append(
f"Cluster Madura surplus {comm_code}: {cluster_supply:.0f}t total. "
f"Saran: agregasi ekspor ke Surabaya/Sidoarjo via Suramadu."
)
# =========================================================================
# LAYER 1 β CANDIDATE GENERATION
# =========================================================================
candidates = generate_candidates(
surplus_nodes, deficit_nodes, logistics=logistics,
allow_grade_substitution=allow_grade_substitution,
)
# Skenario D6 β Filter rute yang ditutup (mudik / demo / maintenance)
if route_blackouts:
ref_date = reference_date or datetime.now()
filtered = []
blackout_count = 0
for s, d in candidates:
blocked = is_route_blacked_out(
s.kabupaten.id, d.kabupaten.id, route_blackouts, ref_date,
)
if blocked:
blackout_count += 1
continue
filtered.append((s, d))
if blackout_count > 0:
warnings.append(
f"Route blackout aktif: {blackout_count} pair difilter karena "
f"rute tertutup pada {ref_date.date().isoformat()}."
)
candidates = filtered
# Track unmatched surplus/deficit
matched_surplus_ids: Set[str] = set()
matched_deficit_ids: Set[str] = set()
if not candidates:
latency_ms = (time.perf_counter() - t_start) * 1000
return MatchingReport(
matches=[],
unmatched_surplus=list(surplus_nodes),
unmatched_deficit=list(deficit_nodes),
external_opportunities=external_opportunities,
warnings=warnings + ["Tidak ada candidate pair yang lolos hard constraints."],
run_metadata={
"latency_ms": round(latency_ms, 2),
"tier1_candidates": 0,
"tier2_candidates": 0,
"weights_used": weights,
},
)
# =========================================================================
# LAYER 2 β SCORING (closure menangkap weights, logistics, weather)
# =========================================================================
def score_fn(s: SupplyNode, d: DemandNode):
# Lookup weather forecast untuk rute
wf_key = f"{s.kabupaten.id}_{d.kabupaten.id}"
wf = weather_forecasts.get(wf_key)
return scoring.compute_score(
s, d, logistics=logistics, weather=wf, weights=weights
)
# =========================================================================
# LAYER 3 β ALLOCATION
# =========================================================================
_equity_fn = equity_fn if equity_fn is not None else equity_multiplier_value
matches = allocate(candidates, score_fn=score_fn, force_strategy=force_strategy,
equity_fn=_equity_fn)
# =========================================================================
# POST-PROCESSING
# =========================================================================
# Tag flags untuk tracking. v11: preserve segment flags from allocation
# (F2 segment-aware multiplier emits audit flags like SEGMENT_HORECA_BULK_BONUS).
for m in matches:
flags = list(m.flags) if m.flags else [] # preserve segment audit flags
if ramadan_active:
flags.append("RAMADAN_SPIKE")
elif active_event == "IMLEK":
flags.append("IMLEK_SPIKE")
elif active_event == "NATAL":
flags.append("NATAL_SPIKE")
elif active_event == "SCHOOL_START":
flags.append("SCHOOL_START_SPIKE")
if import_policy_active:
flags.append("IMPORT_POLICY_ACTIVE")
if m.equity_multiplier == 1.30:
flags.append("EQUITY_BOOST_30")
elif m.equity_multiplier == 1.15:
flags.append("EQUITY_BOOST_15")
elif m.equity_multiplier == 1.05:
flags.append("EQUITY_BOOST_05")
if (m.surplus.kabupaten.id in CLUSTER_MADURA
or m.deficit.kabupaten.id in CLUSTER_MADURA):
flags.append("MADURA_CLUSTER")
if m.deficit.kabupaten.emergency_mode == EmergencyMode.HUMANITARIAN:
flags.append("HUMANITARIAN_PRIORITY")
# F1 β Grade substitution flag
if m.surplus.commodity.code != m.deficit.commodity.code:
flags.append("GRADE_SUBSTITUTION")
m.notes = (
f"{m.surplus.commodity.code} digunakan untuk memenuhi demand "
f"{m.deficit.commodity.code} (grade compatible substitution)."
)
# F2 β Demand segmentation flag (non-default segment)
if m.deficit.segment != DemandSegment.RETAIL:
flags.append(f"SEGMENT_{m.deficit.segment.value}")
# Stale data flag β confidence drop satu tingkat
# HIGH β MEDIUM, MEDIUM β LOW (sesuai spec C3).
s_key = (m.surplus.kabupaten.id, m.surplus.commodity.code)
d_key = (m.deficit.kabupaten.id, m.deficit.commodity.code)
if s_key in stale_supply_keys or d_key in stale_demand_keys:
flags.append("STALE_DATA_24H")
if m.confidence == Confidence.HIGH:
m.confidence = Confidence.MEDIUM
elif m.confidence == Confidence.MEDIUM:
m.confidence = Confidence.LOW
# Skenario A3 β volume mismatch drastis
ratio = min(m.surplus.volume_tons, m.deficit.volume_tons) / max(
m.surplus.volume_tons, m.deficit.volume_tons
)
if ratio < 0.20:
flags.append("VOLUME_MISMATCH_DRASTIS")
m.notes = ("Marginal contribution: surplus/demand ratio < 20%. "
"Suggest combine dengan source lain.")
m.flags = flags
matched_surplus_ids.add(m.surplus.kabupaten.id + "_" + m.surplus.commodity.code)
matched_deficit_ids.add(m.deficit.kabupaten.id + "_" + m.deficit.commodity.code)
# Identifikasi unmatched
unmatched_surplus = [
s for s in surplus_nodes
if (s.kabupaten.id + "_" + s.commodity.code) not in matched_surplus_ids
]
unmatched_deficit = [
d for d in deficit_nodes
if (d.kabupaten.id + "_" + d.commodity.code) not in matched_deficit_ids
]
latency_ms = (time.perf_counter() - t_start) * 1000
tier1_count = sum(
1 for m in matches
if m.surplus.kabupaten.is_tier1 and m.deficit.kabupaten.is_tier1
)
return MatchingReport(
matches=matches,
unmatched_surplus=unmatched_surplus,
unmatched_deficit=unmatched_deficit,
external_opportunities=external_opportunities,
warnings=warnings,
run_metadata={
"latency_ms": round(latency_ms, 2),
"total_matches": len(matches),
"tier1_tier1_matches": tier1_count,
"cross_or_tier2_matches": len(matches) - tier1_count,
"candidate_pairs_evaluated": len(candidates),
"weights_used": weights,
"ramadan_active": ramadan_active,
"import_policy_active": import_policy_active,
"bbm_change_pct": logistics.bbm_change_pct,
"stale_data_count": len(stale_supply) + len(stale_demand),
},
)
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