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Update src/analyze_portfolio_risk.py
Browse files- src/analyze_portfolio_risk.py +82 -82
src/analyze_portfolio_risk.py
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# compute_my_srisk.py
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# ==================================================
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# 💼 개인 포트폴리오 Srisk 계산기 (최종 안정화 버전)
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# ==================================================
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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import re
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# === 문자열에서 숫자만 추출 ===
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def extract_number(x):
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if isinstance(x, str):
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match = re.search(r"[-+]?\d*\.\d+|\d+", x)
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return float(match.group()) if match else np.nan
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return x
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# === Robust Z-score (IQR 기준 + 클리핑) ===
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def robust_zscore(val, series):
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series = series.dropna()
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q1, q3 = series.quantile([0.25, 0.75])
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iqr = q3 - q1
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med = series.median()
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if iqr == 0:
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return 0
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z = (val - med) / iqr
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return np.clip(z, -3, 3)
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# === Srisk 계산 함수 ===
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def compute_srisk_from_portfolio(portfolio, full_df):
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df = full_df[full_df["Ticker"].isin(portfolio.keys())].copy()
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# === 가중 평균 ===
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df["Weight"] = df["Ticker"].map(portfolio)
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sigma_p = np.average(df["Sigma"], weights=df["Weight"])
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mdd_p = np.average(df["MDD"], weights=df["Weight"])
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beta_p = np.average(df["Beta"], weights=df["Weight"])
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# === 섹터 기반 HHI ===
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sector_map = df.set_index("Ticker")["Sector"].to_dict()
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sector_weights = {}
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for ticker, w in portfolio.items():
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sector = sector_map.get(ticker, "Unknown")
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sector_weights[sector] = sector_weights.get(sector, 0) + w
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hhi_p = sum([w**2 for w in sector_weights.values()])
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# === 시장 전체 기준 robust Z-score 계산 ===
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S_sigma = robust_zscore(sigma_p, full_df["Sigma"]) # 변동성 ↑ → 위험 ↑
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S_mdd = -robust_zscore(abs(mdd_p), abs(full_df["MDD"])) # 낙폭 ↑ → 위험 ↑
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S_beta = robust_zscore(beta_p, full_df["Beta"]) # 민감도 ↑ → 위험 ↑
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S_hhi = robust_zscore(hhi_p, pd.Series([(1/len(portfolio))**2]*len(full_df)))
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# === Srisk 계산 (조정된 가중치)
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Srisk = 0.35*S_sigma + 0.25*S_mdd + 0.20*S_beta + 0.10*S_hhi
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# === 구간 분류
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if Srisk < 0.33:
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category = "SAFE"
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elif Srisk < 0.66:
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category = "NEUTRAL"
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else:
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category = "
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return {
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"Srisk": Srisk,
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"Category": category,
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"Sigma_p": sigma_p,
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"MDD_p": mdd_p,
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"Beta_p": beta_p,
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"HHI": hhi_p,
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"Sectors": sector_weights
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}
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def classify_investment_style(full_df, portfolio_list):
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for col in ["Sigma", "MDD", "Beta"]:
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full_df[col] = full_df[col].apply(extract_number)
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df_port = pd.DataFrame(portfolio_list)
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total_value = df_port['total_value'].sum()
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portfolio_weights = (df_port.groupby('ticker')['total_value'].sum() / total_value).to_dict()
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r = compute_srisk_from_portfolio(portfolio_weights, full_df)
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return r['Srisk'], r['Category']
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# compute_my_srisk.py
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# ==================================================
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# 💼 개인 포트폴리오 Srisk 계산기 (최종 안정화 버전)
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# ==================================================
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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import re
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# === 문자열에서 숫자만 추출 ===
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def extract_number(x):
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if isinstance(x, str):
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match = re.search(r"[-+]?\d*\.\d+|\d+", x)
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return float(match.group()) if match else np.nan
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return x
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# === Robust Z-score (IQR 기준 + 클리핑) ===
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def robust_zscore(val, series):
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series = series.dropna()
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q1, q3 = series.quantile([0.25, 0.75])
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iqr = q3 - q1
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med = series.median()
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if iqr == 0:
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return 0
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z = (val - med) / iqr
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return np.clip(z, -3, 3)
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# === Srisk 계산 함수 ===
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def compute_srisk_from_portfolio(portfolio, full_df):
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df = full_df[full_df["Ticker"].isin(portfolio.keys())].copy()
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# === 가중 평균 ===
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df["Weight"] = df["Ticker"].map(portfolio)
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sigma_p = np.average(df["Sigma"], weights=df["Weight"])
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mdd_p = np.average(df["MDD"], weights=df["Weight"])
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beta_p = np.average(df["Beta"], weights=df["Weight"])
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# === 섹터 기반 HHI ===
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sector_map = df.set_index("Ticker")["Sector"].to_dict()
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sector_weights = {}
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for ticker, w in portfolio.items():
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sector = sector_map.get(ticker, "Unknown")
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sector_weights[sector] = sector_weights.get(sector, 0) + w
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hhi_p = sum([w**2 for w in sector_weights.values()])
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# === 시장 전체 기준 robust Z-score 계산 ===
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S_sigma = robust_zscore(sigma_p, full_df["Sigma"]) # 변동성 ↑ → 위험 ↑
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S_mdd = -robust_zscore(abs(mdd_p), abs(full_df["MDD"])) # 낙폭 ↑ → 위험 ↑
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S_beta = robust_zscore(beta_p, full_df["Beta"]) # 민감도 ↑ → 위험 ↑
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S_hhi = robust_zscore(hhi_p, pd.Series([(1/len(portfolio))**2]*len(full_df)))
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# === Srisk 계산 (조정된 가중치)
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Srisk = 0.35*S_sigma + 0.25*S_mdd + 0.20*S_beta + 0.10*S_hhi
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# === 구간 분류
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if Srisk < 0.33:
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category = "SAFE"
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elif Srisk < 0.66:
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category = "NEUTRAL"
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else:
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category = "RISKY"
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return {
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"Srisk": Srisk,
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"Category": category,
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"Sigma_p": sigma_p,
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"MDD_p": mdd_p,
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"Beta_p": beta_p,
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"HHI": hhi_p,
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"Sectors": sector_weights
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}
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def classify_investment_style(full_df, portfolio_list):
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for col in ["Sigma", "MDD", "Beta"]:
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full_df[col] = full_df[col].apply(extract_number)
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df_port = pd.DataFrame(portfolio_list)
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total_value = df_port['total_value'].sum()
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portfolio_weights = (df_port.groupby('ticker')['total_value'].sum() / total_value).to_dict()
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r = compute_srisk_from_portfolio(portfolio_weights, full_df)
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return r['Srisk'], r['Category']
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