diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes index 5b1996635030471fb8ac157c25dfb2af1ea8b81c..cc1148bc6192798718f93db22ddcf3ef51fdd80b 100644 --- a/.gitattributes +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -109,3 +109,4 @@ pages/modules/Module_03/banner.jpg filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text pages/modules/Module_03/satmap_slide.jpg filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text pages/modules/Module_03/satmap.jpg filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text pages/modules/Module_04/banner.jpg filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text +pages/modules/Module_01/Stock_Market_2025_Outlook.pdf filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text diff --git a/pages/Bonus.py b/pages/Bonus.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8ec2915069885addc75210e843391872b27dc7f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Bonus.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Bonus" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_01.py b/pages/Module_01.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..87a3760ac2785d15fe921f653ef28587b2219435 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_01.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_01" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_02.py b/pages/Module_02.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4d6028cce861a02125dd51b3ff1b6f680856a5e9 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_02.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_02" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_03.py b/pages/Module_03.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a4ae65cbb66c9e3737ebfde06acda080d7c20d2b --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_03.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_03" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_04.py b/pages/Module_04.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..22916bcbd9c4e48effbac4052b61c26d9adbfe13 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_04.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_04" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_05.py b/pages/Module_05.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e406d294bc10113a83e67f7d955682aeb856e9a8 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_05.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_05" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_06.py b/pages/Module_06.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d3a6dc07924af56fb53ba38ee5987abf90b1d3aa --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_06.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_06" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_07.py b/pages/Module_07.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b7534edb9c7c11d947320376157a25bca9a7a3c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_07.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_07" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_08.py b/pages/Module_08.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a38eec64788085f1ae998d629e91b124f230aff6 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_08.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_08" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_09.py b/pages/Module_09.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9eb99dd4188e14a7d15f9f8b336bb76dab359abb --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_09.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_09" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_10.py b/pages/Module_10.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7e571b3f10e2b889bf6c3a28cd74917d55b39615 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_10.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_10" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_11.py b/pages/Module_11.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_11.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_12.py b/pages/Module_12.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_12.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_13.py b/pages/Module_13.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_13.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_14.py b/pages/Module_14.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_14.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_15.py b/pages/Module_15.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_15.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_16.py b/pages/Module_16.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_16.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_17.py b/pages/Module_17.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_17.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_18.py b/pages/Module_18.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_18.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_19.py b/pages/Module_19.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_19.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Module_20.py b/pages/Module_20.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdaa3d2457f6743671a999d80171117d73fb6041 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Module_20.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Module_11" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/Overview.py b/pages/Overview.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f5b2424afdbf334e139ec2a746a1b3b77e973c4c --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/Overview.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +CURRENT_MODULE = "Overview" + +# Imports + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components +from pages import load_pages + +if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: + pass +else: + load_pages.load_page(CURRENT_MODULE) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + load_pages.test_load() + print("<<< Module [", CURRENT_MODULE, "] Compile Successful >>>") + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/pages/assets/AI_Algo_Info_Overload.jpg b/pages/assets/AI_Algo_Info_Overload.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..adb3f48e8e8bb7b4e6bde4d342a1c031927580c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/AI_Algo_Info_Overload.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:3556c9ae693efae236d0a5ebf76070fe3770ddf3a02de2b2c10583a78efd1804 +size 729763 diff --git a/pages/assets/AI_Circular_Financing.jpg b/pages/assets/AI_Circular_Financing.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d850001690642793326970ca0ff5997111b98c76 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/AI_Circular_Financing.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:126d5f7ece1016b07a47988d9896725e6c4e4699ae9f455703ce481d27445774 +size 153736 diff --git a/pages/assets/AI_eats_software.jpg b/pages/assets/AI_eats_software.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..22c2deb29b96e1d1799e0df76b82c063438c74d8 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/AI_eats_software.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version 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a/pages/assets/Burford Capital Sample.docx b/pages/assets/Burford Capital Sample.docx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..033da611d2cf58805e3581c19d427ea470e2108c Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/assets/Burford Capital Sample.docx differ diff --git a/pages/assets/Burford Capital Sample.pdf b/pages/assets/Burford Capital Sample.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..06ff41411c0abb714a6c887da77a501929ba1f23 Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/assets/Burford Capital Sample.pdf differ diff --git a/pages/assets/Global_Forward_Power_Demand.jpg b/pages/assets/Global_Forward_Power_Demand.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b8ea7c5a81e17c2ba52302b7c48d1fce4b0b54a3 Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/assets/Global_Forward_Power_Demand.jpg differ diff --git a/pages/assets/Legal_Hearings.jpg b/pages/assets/Legal_Hearings.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4fcab2616bed2ee36db7cbe7a29726d3d4356971 Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/assets/Legal_Hearings.jpg differ diff --git a/pages/assets/Recent ArXiv papers with substantial NVIDIA involvement or authorship.docx b/pages/assets/Recent ArXiv papers with substantial NVIDIA involvement or authorship.docx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ad5028cfc55dab6ffb5b654d158384c70aa35ae7 Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/assets/Recent ArXiv papers with substantial NVIDIA involvement or authorship.docx differ diff --git a/pages/assets/Stargate_Texas.jpg b/pages/assets/Stargate_Texas.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..451eb7d3503a7a9f879e3d8b2a36fe2feb99b24f --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/Stargate_Texas.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:f327ff69259f984e2f41e6e37eee43f5413e59017e39945d0e4de52467d372d8 +size 274338 diff --git a/pages/assets/US_China_AI_Patents.jpg b/pages/assets/US_China_AI_Patents.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..eaafcf7fbe37fc25288b326f24e213dffa6bef59 Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/assets/US_China_AI_Patents.jpg differ diff --git a/pages/assets/attack_chip_clones.jpg b/pages/assets/attack_chip_clones.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d60ad181295bd5df1d827c09abfd454345b5d0c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/attack_chip_clones.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:3b7eccb38dee04a59e330c88168af813052c3d882831525825bce19d7c6a90c4 +size 193143 diff --git a/pages/assets/backup/Datapoint - Backup[01-01-01].txt b/pages/assets/backup/Datapoint - Backup[01-01-01].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d60e36beacdd590386e400656e7d0e71a13fa787 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/backup/Datapoint - Backup[01-01-01].txt @@ -0,0 +1,43 @@ +Texas’s data center market continues to expand rapidly, driven by surging demand for cloud services and AI infrastructure. Between 2023 and 2024 alone, Central Texas saw a four-fold increase in data center construction, totaling 463.5 MW of potential demand under development—making the region the second-largest data center market in the U.S. behind Northern Virginia (industryintel.com). State-wide, ConstructConnect projects total data center construction starts could exceed $46 billion in 2025, reflecting a nationwide boom in hyperscale facilities (news.constructconnect.com). + +Vantage Data Centers – Omicron Drive, San Antonio +Denver-based Vantage Data Centers is adding a fourth facility on San Antonio’s far West Side. The new two-story building at 17420 Omicron Drive will encompass 432,800 sq ft of critical space at an estimated cost of 276.9 million (https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/san−antonio−data−centers−vantage−development−21055301.php?utm +source=openai)).This project is part of Vantage’s broader Texas strategy, which includes the planned $25 billion “Frontier” campus—a 1,200-acre, 1.4 GW AI-focused development in Shackelford County slated to open its first building in the second half of 2026 (reuters.com). To date, no reports of permitting delays or budget overruns have emerged, indicating these expansions remain on schedule. + +CyrusOne DFW10 – Bosque County Campus +CyrusOne, backed by Global Infrastructure Partners and KKR, is developing the DFW10 hyperscale campus adjacent to Calpine’s Thad Hill Energy Center. Phase 1 of the project secured a 190 MW power agreement with Calpine and encompasses 190,000 sq ft of data center space, representing a $1.2 billion infrastructure investment. Groundbreaking occurred mid-2025, and the facility is under construction with an expected operational date in Q4 2026 (cyrusone.com). In November 2025, Calpine and CyrusOne expanded their agreement by an additional 210 MW—bringing the total to 400 MW to support future campus growth—while reaffirming the Q4 2026 target and budget framework (cyrusone.com). + +Google Midlothian Campus – Sharka Data Center Building 4 +At its Midlothian campus (Railport Business Park), Google has filed plans under the “Sharka” name for Building 4, a 170,600 sq ft, single-story data center with associated central utility plant. The $100 million project commenced April 1, 2024, and is scheduled for completion on December 31, 2025 (datacenterdynamics.com). To underpin its Texas expansions, Google has signed long-term solar power purchase agreements totaling 375 MW of renewable capacity, aligning energy supply with sustainability goals (datacenterdynamics.com). As of November 2025, construction is on track for year-end delivery and within the initially announced budget. + +Quality Technology Services (QTS) – Fort Worth DC2 +QTS Realty Trust is expanding its Fort Worth campus with DC2, a two-story, 42 MW data center at 14100 Park Vista Boulevard. The 471,876 sq ft facility, budgeted at $220 million, broke ground March 1, 2024, with completion set for April 1, 2026 (tdlr.texas.gov). Large hyperscale sites in Texas typically demand 100 MW or more each, underscoring the significant scale of DC2’s 42 MW addition (texastribune.org). The project’s plan review is complete, and no construction delays or cost increases have been reported, indicating it remains on schedule. + +Conclusion and Outlook +Across Texas, megawatt-scale data center developments are proceeding largely on time and within budget, reflecting robust site selection, secured power agreements, and proactive permitting strategies. From Vantage’s San Antonio expansion to CyrusOne’s Bosque County campus, and from Google’s Midlothian buildout to QTS’s Fort Worth addition, these projects demonstrate Texas’s pivotal role in supporting the nation’s AI and cloud computing needs. With minimal reported delays and substantial financial backing, the state looks poised to solidify its status as a leading global data center hub—even as grid integration and sustainable power sourcing remain critical to future growth. + + +### Chunk 1 Review + +## Vantage Data Centers – Omicron Drive, San Antonio +Denver-based Vantage Data Centers has filed with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation to build a two-story, hyperscale data center at 17420 Omicron Drive on San Antonio’s far West Side. The facility will total 432,800 square feet and draw 96 MW of power, at an estimated construction cost of $276.9 million. Construction is slated to begin in October 2025 and conclude by August 2027, with site preparation and permitting complete and no reported cost overruns or schedule changes to date, indicating the project is proceeding on time and on budget ([expressnews.com](https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/san-antonio-data-centers-vantage-development-21055301.php)). + +## Vantage Data Centers – Frontier AI Megacampus, Shackelford County +In August 2025, Vantage Data Centers announced “Frontier,” a $25 billion, 1,200-acre AI campus in Shackelford County, Texas. The build will ultimately support 1.4 GW of power across ten ultra-high-density data centers, each designed for racks drawing over 250 kW. The first building is expected to be operational in the second half of 2026. Backed by a $9.2 billion equity raise co-led by Silver Lake and DigitalBridge, the Frontier campus remains in early site development, with no public reports of cost escalations or timeline delays ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/vantage-data-centers-plans-25-billion-ai-campus-texas-2025-08-19/?utm_source=openai)). + +## Blueprint Data Centers – Taylor Campus +Blueprint Data Centers secured rezoning in June 2025 for a three-building data center campus at 1601 MLK Jr. Blvd in Taylor, Texas. The 135,000 square foot campus will house servers for AI and high-performance computing, drawing up to 60 MW of power (30 MW secured in the initial phase). The company has committed at least $1 billion to construction and equipment over the next ten years. Initial delays arose due to Oncor’s power-capacity confirmation and a temporary restraining order filed by neighbors, which halted work until October 15, 2025, when a judge dismissed the injunction. With legal and utility issues resolved, construction is set to resume, targeting energization by 2026, and remains on budget with no further cost overruns reported ([taylorpress.net](https://www.taylorpress.net/article/10228%2Cdata-center-gets-zoning-ok-for-s1billion-project)). + +## Blueprint Data Centers – Georgetown Facility +Blueprint’s sister site in Georgetown, Texas, received city approval in September 2024 for a 45,000 square foot, $160 million data center on a 10-acre parcel at 1201 Westinghouse Road. Designed for 25 MW of power capacity, the Georgetown DC will be delivered in two phases—12.5 MW by Q4 2026 and the remainder by early 2027. Construction is scheduled to commence imminently, with no reported setbacks or budget changes, keeping the project on track for its planned commissioning timeline ([hellogeorgetown.com](https://www.hellogeorgetown.com/coming-soon-to-georgetown/blueprint-data-centers-commits-160m-to-georgetown-site-tied-to-taylor-expansion/?utm_source=openai)). + +## Skybox Datacenters – PowerCampus Austin (Hutto) +Dallas-based Skybox Datacenters LLC is advancing its “PowerCampus Austin” in Hutto, a six-building, 3.9 million square foot hyperscale campus on 160 acres with 600 MW of total power capacity. Building 1—a $163 million, unspecified-square-foot facility—broke ground last year and is slated for completion by June 2025. Building 2, at 234,820 square feet and costing $125 million, will begin construction on October 1, 2025, and finish by June 2026. Both phases remain aligned with their original schedules and budgets, with no reported cost overages or construction delays ([mysanantonio.com](https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/austin-skybox-hutto-data-center-21029501.php)). + +## EdgeConneX – Cedar Creek Campus, Bastrop County +Virginia-based EdgeConneX is developing a four-building, $1.44 billion data center campus (DFW33220N) at FM 535 and Wolf Lane in Cedar Creek, Bastrop County. The first phase, Building AUS02, is a two-story, 578,000 square foot facility drawing up to 96 MW of power, at a cost of $440 million. Construction will commence in August 2025 and wrap up by June 2026. The project secured a ten-year property tax abatement in December 2024 and is proceeding on time and within its projected budget ([communityimpact.com](https://communityimpact.com/austin/bastrop-cedar-creek/development/2025/08/01/data-center-slated-for-construction-in-cedar-creek/)). + +--- + +Overall, Texas remains one of the fastest-growing data center markets in the United States, fueled by a deregulated power grid, robust tax incentives, and proximity to major semiconductor and tech manufacturing hubs. Projects by hyperscalers and emerging developers alike are advancing largely on schedule and within budget, with only localized regulatory or community-related hurdles briefly affecting timelines. This sustained momentum underscores Texas’s strategic role in meeting escalating global demand for cloud, AI, and high-performance computing infrastructure. + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/assets/backup/Texas_Datacenter_Map_old.html b/pages/assets/backup/Texas_Datacenter_Map_old.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e52ad3b21370278721a45364dc792f34807298aa --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/backup/Texas_Datacenter_Map_old.html @@ -0,0 +1,207 @@ + Texas Data Centers Map – Babylon.js + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/assets/backup/Texas_Datacenter_Map_old02.html b/pages/assets/backup/Texas_Datacenter_Map_old02.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f3a0fd95c65a4dd378305d6f87e0e3fb87c5b9d9 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/backup/Texas_Datacenter_Map_old02.html @@ -0,0 +1,203 @@ + Texas Data Centers Map – Babylon.js + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/assets/backup/Texas_Datacenter_Vega_Gantt_Chart.html b/pages/assets/backup/Texas_Datacenter_Vega_Gantt_Chart.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3feafdd00dc9b331ac042d31205f2599a132c368 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/backup/Texas_Datacenter_Vega_Gantt_Chart.html @@ -0,0 +1,22 @@ + + + + +Data Center Construction Gantt Chart + + + + + + +

Data Center Construction Gantt Chart

+ +
+ + + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/assets/backup/formulas.txt b/pages/assets/backup/formulas.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1e8b82487e2bae9c7274cd0b030b6a2828105727 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/backup/formulas.txt @@ -0,0 +1,221 @@ +Expander: Null Hypothesis +**The “no‐effect” or “no‐difference” assumption** + +Mathematical Notation: +H₀: θ = θ₀ (e.g. H₀: μ = 0) + +*Example (one‐sample t‐test against μ₀ = 5):* +*x = c(5.1, 4.9, 5.0, 5.2)* +*t.test(x, mu = 5)* +End Expander: +Expander: Alternative Hypothesis +**The different claim you wish to support** + +Mathematical Notation: +– Two‐sided: Hₐ: θ ≠ θ₀ +– One‐sided: Hₐ: θ > θ₀ or Hₐ: θ < θ₀ + +*Example (test if mean > 5):* +*t.test(x, mu = 5, alternative = "greater")* +*or alternative = "two.sided" (default), "greater" or "less"* +End Expander: +Expander: p-value +**Assuming H₀ is true, this is the probability of seeing data** +**in your statistical test that is at least as extreme as yours** + +Mathematical Notation: +p = P(Test statistic ≥ observed | H₀) (one‐tailed) +p = 2·P(|Test statistic| ≥ |observed| | H₀) (two‐tailed) + +R function: +returned by many tests as $p.value + +*Example (from t.test above):* +*res = t.test(x, mu = 5)* +*res$p.value* +End Expander: +Expander: Confidence Interval +A range of plausible values for the parameter calculated so that +e.g. 95% of such intervals (in repeated sampling) contain the true value +Mathematical form & notation: +CI₁₋α = [θ̂ ± z₁₋α/₂·SE(θ̂)] for normal distribution +CI₁₋α = [θ̂ ± t_{n–1,1–α/₂}·SE(θ̂)] for an unknown σ + +*Example (95% CI for mean):* +*t.test(x, conf.level = 0.95)$conf.int* +End Expander: +Expander: Significance Level (α) +**The cutoff probability for a rare result under H₀** +**if p ≤ α you reject H₀** + +Mathematical Notation: +α = P(Type I error) += P(reject H₀ | H₀ true) + +R function: +you compare to see if p.value ≤ α +and conf.level = 1–α +End Expander: +Expander: One-tailed test +**A test that looks for an effect in only one direction (greater or less)** + +Mathematical Notation: +Hₐ: θ > θ₀ or Hₐ: θ < θ₀ + +R function: +alternative = "greater" or "less" + +*Example:* +*t.test(x, mu = 5, alternative = "less")* +End Expander: +Expander: Two-tailed Test +**A test that looks for an effect in either direction** + +Mathematical Notation: +Hₐ: θ ≠ θ₀ + +R function: +alternative = "two.sided" (default) + +*Example:* +*t.test(x, mu = 5, alternative = "two.sided")* +End Expander: +Expander: Normal Distribution +**The symmetric bell‐shaped distribution** +Many statistical curves “look normal” when the sample size is large + +Mathematical Notation: +X ~ N(μ, σ²) +The amount of area under the normal curve when 2 standard deviations +away to the right is written as P(Z ≤ 2.0) = 97.72% of the curve + +R functions: +– dnorm(x, mean, sd) density +– pnorm(q, mean, sd) pdf +– qnorm(p, mean, sd) inverse of pnorm +– rnorm(n, mean, sd) n random samples + +*Example:* +*pnorm(2.0, mean = 0, sd = 1) # = 97.72%* +*qnorm(0.9772, mean = 0, sd = 1) # = 2.0 = inverse of p* +End Expander: +Expander: False Positive (Type I Error) +**Rejecting H₀ when it is actually true** +*e.g. Unicorns do not exist but the statistical test said they did* +*when the null hypothesis (H₀) or base assumption is unicorns do not exist* +Mathematical Notation: +P(Type I error) = α +End Expander: +Expander: False Negative (Type II error) +**Failing to reject H₀ when it is actually false** +*e.g. Unicorns exist but the statistical test said they do not* +*when the null hypothesis (H₀) or base assumption is unicorns do not exist* +Also called Beta(β) + +Mathematical Notation: +β = P(Type II error) +End Expander: +Expander: Power +Power is defined as 1 - Beta (β) +Reminder: Beta is a False Negative (Type II error) +so Beta is Failing to reject H₀ when it is actually false + +Mathematical Notation: +Power = 1 – β +Power = P(reject H₀ | Hₐ true) +the conditional probability of rejecting the null hypothesis +when the alternative hypothesis is true and the null is false + +R function: +use power.t.test(), power.prop.test(), etc. + +*Example (power for one‐sample t):* +*power.t.test(n = 20, delta = 1, sd = 2, sig.level = 0.05, type = "one.sample")* +End Expander: +Expander: One-Sample T-Test +**Tests whether the mean of one group differs from a given value μ₀** + +Mathematical Notation: +t = (x̄ – μ₀) / (s / √n), df = n – 1 + +R function: +t.test(x, mu, alternative, conf.level) +*where:* +– x: numeric vector +– mu: hypothesized mean μ₀ +– alternative: "two.sided"/"greater"/"less" +– conf.level: e.g. 0.95 + +*Example:* +*x = c(5.1, 4.9, 5.0, 5.2)* +*t.test(x, mu = 5, alternative = "two.sided", conf.level = 0.95)* +End Expander: +Expander: Two-Sample T-Test +**Tests whether two group means differ.** + +Mathematical Notation (unequal variances): +t = (x̄₁ – x̄₂) / √(s₁²/n₁ + s₂²/n₂), df by Welch’s formula + +R function: +t.test(x, y, var.equal = FALSE, alternative, conf.level) +*where:* +– x, y: numeric vectors for each group +– var.equal: TRUE for pooled‐variance test, FALSE for Welch’s + +*Example:* +*groupA = c(5.1,4.9,5.0,5.2)* +*groupB = c(5.3,5.4,5.2,5.5)* +*t.test(groupA, groupB, var.equal = FALSE)* +End Expander: +Expander: Z-test +**Like a t-test but uses a known σ or large-n approximation** + +Mathematical Notation: +z = (x̄ – μ₀) / (σ / √n), compare to N(0,1) + +R function: +use BSDA::z.test() or do manually (below) + +*Example* +*x = c(102, 98, 100, 101, 99)* +*n = length(x)* +*mu0 = 100* +*sigma = 2* +*z = (mean(x) - mu0) / (sigma / sqrt(n))* +*p_value = 2 * pnorm(-abs(z)) # two‐sided* +End Expander: +Expander: Chi-Squared Test of Independence +**Tests whether two Categorical variables are related** + +Mathematical Notation: +χ² = Σ_{i,j} (O_{i,j} – E_{i,j})² / E_{i,j}, df = (rows–1)(cols–1) + +R function: +chisq.test(x, correct = TRUE/FALSE) +*where:* +– x: contingency table (matrix or table) +– correct: apply Yates’s continuity correction for 2×2 tables + +*Example:* +*tbl = matrix(c(12, 5,7, 16), nrow = 2,* +* dimnames = list(Gene = c("A","B"),* +* Outcome = c("Yes","No")))* +*chisq.test(tbl, correct = FALSE)* +End Expander: +Expander: Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Test (Frequencies) +**Tests if observed sample counts match expected proportions** + +Mathematical Notation: +χ² = Σ (O_i – E_i)² / E_i, df = k – 1 + +R function: +chisq.test(x, p) +*where:* +– x: vector of observed counts +– p: vector of hypothesized probabilities (sum to 1) + +*Example:* +*observed = c(50, 30, 20)* +*expected_probs = c(0.5, 0.3, 0.2)* +*chisq.test(observed, p = expected_probs)* +End Expander: \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/assets/backup/logo_02.jpg b/pages/assets/backup/logo_02.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..51e14a205aeace7d002dc0966b0a1de202fb7411 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/backup/logo_02.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:8d55c3bb0902a792796150e42dfad6cd21f0c04949f2e34f3b8bd6f41853e531 +size 376961 diff --git a/pages/assets/backup/profile.txt b/pages/assets/backup/profile.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..914b04e43ff6aa25ebef5ee66a680d7b6e6c0faf --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/backup/profile.txt @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +# 🚀 Student Profile + +- **Student Name:** Charlie B +- **Department:** BMO Wealth +- **Expertise:** Intermediate + +## 🎯 Interests: +- Data science and analytics +- Predictive models +- Capital market applications + +## 🎯 Goals for Next Review: +- Complete topics in **Supervised Learning**. +- Begin study on Advanced Optimization Methods. +- Initiate **Computer Vision** topics. + +** Keep up the excellent work ** diff --git a/pages/assets/backup/progress.txt b/pages/assets/backup/progress.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cdef1476e32fe71130a57e782d8e980cb154b3aa --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/backup/progress.txt @@ -0,0 +1,43 @@ +# 🚀 Progress Report + +- **Student Name:** +- **Enrollment Date:** Sept 15, 2025 +- **Report Date:** Nov 2, 2025 + +--- + +# 📚 Progress Overview +Completed topics are marked with a checkmark (✔️), +while incomplete or pending topics remain unchecked. + +## 📈 Overall Progress Summary + +| Curriculum Area | Completion (%) | +|------------------------------|----------------| +| Overview | 100% | +| Inference Concepts | 100% | +| One and Two-Tailed Tests | 100% | +| Mathematical Concepts | 75% | +| Normal Distribution | 75% | +| T-tests | 70% | +| Paired T-tests | 65% | +| Chi-Squared Independence | 0% | +| Chi-Squared Frequencies | 0% | +| Summary | 0% | + +--- + +## ✅ Statistics and Probability +| Subtopic | Status | +|----------------------------------------|---------| +| Measures of Central Tendency | ✔️ | +| Variance and Standard Deviation | ✔️ | +| Probability Distributions | ✔️ | +| Central Limit Theorem & Applications | ✔️ | +| Hypothesis Testing | ✔️ | +| Bayesian Statistics | | + +--- + +**Keep up the excellent work, you're well on your way** +**to mastering this module! 🚀** \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/assets/backup/test_quantum_question.txt b/pages/assets/backup/test_quantum_question.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..52c161986e5245b95b2f165c4fb81a8bf1bc07b8 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/backup/test_quantum_question.txt @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ + +Explain quantum computing. What are the different technological approaches e.g. Annealing, Ionic, Supercomputing and Photonic. 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Google Search.pdf b/pages/assets/streamlit button key - Google Search.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7744c174475297fc714a88e78da2ae0c17bc0e5e --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/assets/streamlit button key - Google Search.pdf @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:cc62574b97560c7d531386185f04a78f468ff4905d85be1b391479c39db1c6ad +size 521113 diff --git a/pages/assets/the_new_thinker.jpg b/pages/assets/the_new_thinker.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5f494c4cee810282319fa8a61b42c22169c0d03a Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/assets/the_new_thinker.jpg differ diff --git a/pages/load_pages.py b/pages/load_pages.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..53a613fe984852b6fff4d8e7ff7951d3f520c6db --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/load_pages.py @@ -0,0 +1,584 @@ + +# ========================================================================= +# Imports +# ========================================================================= + +import os, time, re, sys +import numpy as np +from openai import OpenAI + +import streamlit as st +import streamlit.components.v1 as components + +import urllib.parse + +# ========================================================================= +# AI Response Dialog +# ========================================================================= + +# st.set_page_config(layout="wide") # Optional: sets the main page to wide layout +# "small" (default): maximum 500 pixels wide. +# "medium": maximum 750 pixels wide. +# "large": maximum 1280 pixels wide + +@st.dialog("🤖 Response", width="medium") +def AI_gen_response(prompt): + + MIN_PROMPT_LENGTH = 6 + + if len(prompt.strip()) < MIN_PROMPT_LENGTH: + print("ERROR: AI prompt too short") + st.markdown("*Your input is too short, please retype ...*") # clear output and print statement in italics + return + + # AI API Call + + with st.spinner("Thinking ...", show_time=True): + + st.markdown("*Thinking about your response ...*") # clear output and print statement in italics + + client = st.session_state["openai_client"] + + response = client.responses.create( + model= "gpt-5-nano", # "o4-mini", + stream = False, # Set True for Streaming version + input=[ + { + "role": "developer", + "content": [ + { + "type": "input_text", + "text": "You are an expert AI researcher. You are asked to answer the questions provided. You can request tools to perform a web search. Conclude with answers and sentiment around the topic. Include links to referenced sources." + } + ] + }, + { + "role": "user", + "content": [ + { + "type": "input_text", + "text": prompt + } + ] + } + ], + text={ + "format": { + "type": "text" + } + }, + reasoning={ + "effort": "medium" # high + }, + tools=[ + { + "type": "web_search", + "user_location": { + "type": "approximate" + }, + "search_context_size": "medium", # medium # high + # "filters": {"allowed_domains": ["arxiv.org"]} e.g. arxiv.org for research papers + } + ], + store=True, + include=["reasoning.encrypted_content","web_search_call.action.sources"] + ) + + print(response.output_text) + + format_text(response.output_text, input_directory="") # there is no input directory for the OpenAI API + + return response.output_text + + +# ========================================================================= +# Symbolic Lookup Table - Greek (lower and upper, math and equality signs) +# ========================================================================= + +SYMBOLS: dict[str, str] = { + r"\alpha": "α", r"\beta": "β", r"\gamma": "γ", r"\delta": "δ",r"\epsilon": "ε",r"\zeta": "ζ", r"\eta": "η", r"\theta": "θ", r"\iota": "ι", r"\kappa": "κ", r"\lambda": "λ", r"\mu": "μ", r"\nu": "ν", r"\xi": "ξ", r"\omicron": "ο", r"\pi": "π", r"\rho": "ρ", r"\sigma": "σ", r"\tau": "τ", r"\upsilon": "υ", r"\phi": "φ", r"\chi": "χ", r"\psi": "ψ", r"\omega": "ω", + r"\Alpha": "Α", r"\Beta": "Β", r"\Gamma": "Γ", r"\Delta": "Δ", r"\Epsilon": "Ε",r"\Zeta": "Ζ", r"\Eta": "Η", r"\Theta": "Θ", r"\Iota": "Ι", r"\Kappa": "Κ", r"\Lambda": "Λ", r"\Mu": "Μ", r"\Nu": "Ν", r"\Xi": "Ξ", r"\Omicron": "Ο", r"\Pi": "Π", r"\Rho": "Ρ", r"\Sigma": "Σ", r"\Tau": "Τ", r"\Upsilon": "Υ", r"\Phi": "Φ", r"\Chi": "Χ", r"\Psi": "Ψ", r"\Omega": "Ω", + r"\pm": "±", r"\times": "×", r"\div": "÷", r"\cdot": "·", r"\sqrt": "√", r"\sum": "∑", r"\prod": "∏", r"\int": "∫", r"\infty": "∞", r"\partial": "∂", r"\nabla": "∇", r"\le": "≤", r"\ge": "≥", r"\neq": "≠", r"\approx": "≈", + r"\and": "∧", r"\or": "∨", r"\neg": "¬", r"\in": "∈", r"\notin": "∉", r"\subset": "⊂", r"\subseteq": "⊆",r"\supset": "⊃", r"\supseteq": "⊇", r"\cup": "∪", r"\cap": "∩", r"\angle": "∠", r"\triangle": "△", + r"\therefore": "∴", r"\because": "∵", r"\propto": "∝", r"\parallel": "∥",r"\perp": "⊥", r"\degree": "°", r"\bullet": "•", r"\rightarrow": "→", r"\leftarrow": "←", r"\uparrow": "↑", + r"\downarrow": "↓", r"\leftrightarrow": "↔", r"\ell": "ℓ", r"\Re": "ℜ", r"\Im": "ℑ", r"\aleph": "ℵ", r"\wp": "℘", + r"\$":"$" +} + +# ===================================================== +# Functions - to convert symbol tags to symbols +# ===================================================== + +FORMULA_REGEX = re.compile(r'\\[A-Za-z]+') +BOLD_TXT_REGEX = re.compile(r'\\[A-Za-z]+{([^{}]*)}') + +def test_load(): + # print("load_pages - testing external call") # DEBUG + pass + +def latex_to_unicode(text: str, table: dict[str, str] = SYMBOLS) -> str: + return FORMULA_REGEX.sub(lambda m: table.get(m.group(0), m.group(0)), text) + +def latex_bold_to_markdown(text: str) -> str: + return BOLD_TXT_REGEX.sub(r'**\1**', text) + +# ===================================================================================== +# format_text - loads a text file, formats it and places streamlit components +# based on instructions from the text file (lesson/learning module) file +# ===================================================================================== + +def format_text(input_text, input_directory=""): + + # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + # Uses text file as input - input_text + # within the text are instructional tags used to build the content for the page + # This code parses the text line-by-line to determine what to display for the page + # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + + # Parse the raw text for certain backslashes for mathematical formulae and + # instruct the program to call the st.latex function to render + + input_text = input_text.replace("\\[\n",'st.latex("') + input_text = input_text.replace("\\[",'st.latex("') + input_text = input_text.replace("\n\\]\n",'")\n') + input_text = input_text.replace("\\]\n",'")\n') + + # Split the text line by line to parse + + lines = input_text.split("\n") + idx = 0 + + # Scan each line + + while(idx", height=600, width = 700, scrolling=True) + + # --------------------------------------------------------------------- + # A Cognitive Checkpoint is a point in the module where the student is asked to + # write a briefing that demonstrates whether they understand a concept + # The briefing is sent to the AI for evaluation + # Constructing this as a multi-line input gives the ability to enhance the admin prompt + # which will need custom instructions based on the checkpoint + # --------------------------------------------------------------------- + + elif line[:len("Cognitive Checkpoint:")]=="Cognitive Checkpoint:": + + question_key = line[23:31] # Unique key for response + question = "" # Multi-line question for cognitive response + + for c, question_line in enumerate(lines[idx+1:]): + if question_line[:len("End Cognitive Checkpoint:")]=="End Cognitive Checkpoint:": + idx+=1 # skip this line + break + else: + question += question_line + "\n" + + idx+=c # Set global counter to skip past the lines already read in lookahead mode + + st.write(question) # Write question + + # Provide area to write response + + with st.expander(label = "Checkpoint:", expanded=True, icon=":material/live_help:"): + + if answer_text := st.text_area(label="Question to Answer", value="", height=150, key=question_key): # := is the "Walrus Operator - assigns, checks and runs function" + + # Return your assessment in JSON format # Optional - for eval purposes + + AI_question = "[" + answer_text + "]" + + try: + AI_gen_response(prompt=AI_question) + except Exception as e: + print("ERROR: Dialog box open. Message suppressed\n",str(e)) + + + + # --------------------------------------------------------------------- + # A Datapoint is an information point that the user wants the AI to research + # --------------------------------------------------------------------- + + elif line[:len("Datapoint")]=="Datapoint": + + question_key = line[9:19] # Unique key for response + question = "" # Multi-line question for cognitive response + + # Check to see if a previous answer was generated for this Datapoint key + + content_name = "Datapoint"+question_key+".txt" + content_file = open(os.path.join(input_directory,content_name), "r", encoding="UTF-8") + + if content_file is None: + answer = "" + else: + print("Previous answer found:",content_name) + answer = content_file.read() + + with st.expander(label = "Datapoint Answer:", expanded=False, icon=":material/live_help:"): + st.write(answer) + + # Read the question for the Datapoint to resolve + + for c, question_line in enumerate(lines[idx+1:]): + if question_line[:len("End Datapoint")]=="End Datapoint": + idx+=1 # skip this line + break + else: + question += question_line + "\n" + + idx+=c # Set global counter to skip past the lines already read in lookahead mode + + # Provide area to edit / write question + + with st.expander(label = "Datapoint Question:", expanded=True, icon=":material/live_help:"): + + if answer_text := st.text_area(label="Datapoint", value=question, height=300, key=question_key): # := is the "Walrus Operator - assigns, checks and runs function" + + # Return your assessment in JSON format # Optional - for eval purposes + + AI_question = "[" + answer_text + "]" + + if st.button("🤖 Send Question to AI 🤖",key=question_key+"_button"): + try: + AI_gen_response(prompt=AI_question) + # write answer + + except Exception as e: + print("ERROR: Dialog box open. Message suppressed\n",str(e)) + + + + # ------------------------------------------ + # DEFAULT Instructions if no tag is provided + # ------------------------------------------ + + else: + line_unicode = latex_to_unicode(line) # convert text to unicode symbols if needed + line_bold = latex_bold_to_markdown(line_unicode) # bold text + # print(line_bold) + st.markdown(line_bold) # markdown that line + + # ------------------------------------------ + # Increment line counter / go to next line + # ------------------------------------------ + + idx+=1 + + + # END Parse text + + return + + +# ===================================================== +# Load Content +# ===================================================== + +def load_content(module): + + input_directory = os.path.join(st.session_state["start_dir"],"pages","modules",module) + + # if file exists - otherwise do nothing + content_str = open(os.path.join(input_directory,"Overview.txt"), "r", encoding="UTF-8").read() + tab_content = content_str.split("---\n") + + # Display Module title if one is given, otherwise blank + + title = tab_content[0].strip() + if len(title)>0: + st.subheader(title) + + # Draw tabs according to page count + + tab_list = ["🚀"+str(idx+1) for idx,x in enumerate(tab_content[1:])] + tabs = st.tabs(tab_list) + + # For each tab, render the appropriate content + + for idx,tab in enumerate(tabs): + with tab: + format_text(tab_content[idx+1], input_directory) + + # Add AI Bot Interface to bottom of page + +## if prompt := st.chat_input("I would like to learn about ..."): +## AI_gen_response(prompt=prompt) + + return + +# ===================================================== +# Load Page +# ===================================================== + +def load_page(module): + + if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: # User is not logged in - don't load content + return + + # -------------------------------------------------- + # Sidebar + # -------------------------------------------------- + + asset_dir = os.path.join(st.session_state["start_dir"],"pages","assets") + + with st.sidebar: + + with st.expander("Research", expanded=True, icon=":material/library_books:"): + + st.page_link("pages/Module_01.py", label="Market Outlook", icon=":material/rocket_launch:") + st.page_link("pages/Module_05.py", label="Tariffs", icon=":material/rocket_launch:") + st.page_link("pages/Module_03.py", label="Data Centers", icon=":material/rocket_launch:") + st.page_link("pages/Module_04.py", label="Financing", icon=":material/rocket_launch:") + st.page_link("pages/Bonus.py", label="Additional Tools", icon=":material/library_books:") + + with st.expander("Ask the AI", expanded=False, icon=":material/smart_toy:"): + + if AI_question := st.text_input(label="Ask the AI", value="", key="AI_Question"): + try: + AI_gen_response(prompt=AI_question) + except Exception as e: + print("ERROR: Dialog box open. Message suppressed\n",str(e)) + + # Callback function to clear text from previous AI question inputs + + def set_name(new_text): + st.session_state.AI_Question = new_text + + st.button('Clear',on_click=set_name, args=['']) + + with st.expander("Calculator", expanded=False, icon=":material/calculate:"): + components.html("", height=550, width = 550, scrolling=True) + +## +## with st.expander("Statistical Glossary", expanded=False, icon=":material/functions:"): +## overview_dir = os.path.join(st.session_state["start_dir"],"pages","assets") +## overview_str = open(os.path.join(overview_dir,"formulas.txt"), "r", encoding="UTF-8").read() +## format_text(overview_str, overview_dir) +## +## with st.expander("Your Progress",expanded=False, icon=":material/preliminary:"): +## progress_str = open(os.path.join(st.session_state["start_dir"],"pages","assets","progress.txt"), "r", encoding="UTF-8").read() +## st.markdown(progress_str) + + with st.expander("Logout", expanded=False, icon=":material/logout:"): # + if st.button("Logout"): + del st.session_state["logged_in"] + st.switch_page("app.py") # switch to main page + st.rerun() # should invoke login dialog + + # END Sidebar + + # -------------------------------------------------- + # Main Screen Content - e.g. Pages with Tabs + # -------------------------------------------------- + + if "logged_in" not in st.session_state: # check if user has logged out with sidebar + pass + else: + load_content(module) # otherwise load and provide access to the content + +# ================================================= +# Standalone Code if Program is Run as Main +# ================================================= + +if __name__ == "__main__": + pass + diff --git a/pages/modules/Bonus/GlobeBad.html b/pages/modules/Bonus/GlobeBad.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3ea5f39cf2184da3d2e160c0071cedef47e83873 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Bonus/GlobeBad.html @@ -0,0 +1,108 @@ + + + + + Globe + + + + + + + + + + + + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/modules/Bonus/GlobeGood.html b/pages/modules/Bonus/GlobeGood.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..eb43d7b7f207760596fff1e85bc11e2fe4320137 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Bonus/GlobeGood.html @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ + + + + + 3D Wireframe Globe + + + + + + + + + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/modules/Bonus/Overview.txt b/pages/modules/Bonus/Overview.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9d4f97bb688b20b3529a8d40ebb41efbdc3bb33f --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Bonus/Overview.txt @@ -0,0 +1,7 @@ +Additional Tools +--- +HTML: GlobeBad.html +--- +HTML: GlobeGood.html +--- +#### Last Page diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-01].txt b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-01].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c86e8d8e26c24b7192edebc8912b20e4d271eccf --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-01].txt @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +##### Overall 2025 Summary Outlook + +The core view is a US-led expansion with inflation broadly contained but not necessarily back to the Fed’s target quickly, given tariff and immigration risks. +The US is expected to lead global growth, aided by pro-growth policies, deregulation, and ongoing monetary easing in many regions (though some expect easing to be slower than markets currently price in). +Equities are seen as likely to broaden beyond the AI‑driven mega-cap rally, aided by AI adoption, improving earnings, and ongoing policy support; however valuations and policy uncertainty remain key risks. +Fixed income remains important for income and diversification, with a wide range of views on duration and credit in a world of higher-for-longer rates and potential fiscal stimulus. +Private markets and hedge funds are frequently recommended as diversifiers, given dispersion in outcomes and the difficulty of repeating last year’s equity performance. +Tariffs and policy shifts loom large as major downside risks, with potential for volatility and diverging regional outcomes. + +**Positive outliers** (firms with especially bullish or notably constructive 2025 views) + +- Bank of America (BofA): Goldilocks scenario for 2025 — roughly 3.25% GDP growth, about 2.5% inflation, a weaker US dollar, lower oil, and gold near $3,000/oz. Views a favorable, moderately positive global backdrop with ongoing monetary easing. +- Ned Davis Research (NDR): Skies mostly clear into 2025; bullish on US stocks on an absolute basis; themes include crypto, software AI, and durable goods; preference for a broad, cyclical tilt. +- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (and JPMorgan Asset Management): Positive on US risky assets; “US exceptionalism” reinforced; a pro-growth, pro-deregulation stance with easing in the background; breadth of rally expected as earnings grow across more stocks. +- BNY Mellon Investment Management (BNY): AI as a dominant long‑term driver; AI’s impact to surpass prior tech eras; overweight to US large-cap equities; broadening of leadership beyond megacaps. +- Neuberger Berman: “Above-trend growth” scenario for 2025; inflation contained; central banks can stay accommodative; policy supports earnings and growth. +- Schroders: Benign backdrop with a soft landing; inflation moving toward target; rates falling in the US and Europe; growth reaccelerates through 2025. +- Capital Group: Global growth diverging across regions with the US as a key driver; fed rate cuts likely; healthy environment for both stocks and bonds. +- UBS: US growth supported by deregulation and business confidence; US equities rise; bond yields drift lower on rate cuts toward neutral. +- Pictet Asset Management: Global growth around 2.8% in 2025; US leadership; resilient growth and falling rates should help equities outperform; relatively favorable valuation context outside a few overvalued areas. +- Amundi Investment Institute: Benign global outlook; central banks able to cut rates further; diversification emphasized as policy risk remains. +- Goldman Sachs Asset Management: Rate cuts progress in many regions; a broad-based but moderate positive returns environment with tail risks and policy uncertainty acknowledged. +- T. Rowe Price: Potential early 2025 slowdown followed by rapid rate cuts; shift from services to manufacturing due to AI and infrastructure build; constructive read on global growth. +- First Abu Dhabi Bank: Constructive view on US growth; productivity powered by deregulation and pro-business policies; global growth scenario still favorable overall. +- JPMorgan Wealth Management: Global easing cycle expected; US/Europe growth remains positive with volatility, but strategies favor balanced offense/defense. + +Others with constructive tones (briefly): Amundi, UBS, Capital Economics, and certain private-market/alternative strategists who emphasize diversification and AI/factory of growth themes. + +**Negative outliers** (firms with notably cautious or bearish/slower-growth views) + +- Wells Fargo Investment Institute: Highlights increased probability of a global recession and tariff-driven headwinds; warns that tariffs could materially slow growth and elevate macro uncertainty. +- Deutsche Bank (macro/euro view): Sees stronger US growth but a slower, weaker eurozone path (euro area around 0.8% growth in 2025; UK around 1.3%); Europe faces meaningful downside risk relative to the US. +- Barclays Private Bank: Cautions that some of the early returns in 2025 may have already materialized; expects more muted returns ahead; recommends focusing on quality and valuations, implying a more cyclical/defensive tilt. +- BCA Research: While acknowledging potential US upside from tax cuts/deregulation, also flags the risk of a larger tariff shock and a path where tariffs/or policy could weigh on global growth; less comfortable with a too-elevated equity risk posture in some scenarios. +- TD Securities: Notes heightened uncertainty and greater regional divergence; suggests a more fragmented global picture than in a straightforward soft landing. + +(Somewhat mixed but skewing cautious) Deutsche Bank’s Europe outlook and the risk of inflationary spillovers from tariffs, plus a general note that policy paths may not converge quickly enough for all regions. +In short + +The consensus on balance is US-led growth with inflation contained; AI and deregulation are seen as major upside catalysts for 2025, with a broadening equity rally and income-oriented fixed income strategies. Positive outliers emphasize strong US leadership, AI-driven productivity, and a soft-landing scenario across major markets. Negative outliers center on policy risk (tariffs, immigration, deficits), euro-area slowdown, and higher uncertainty around the size/tace of rate cuts, suggesting more caution and a potential for volatility or downside surprises in some regions. diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-02].txt b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-02].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..239bf80c75f0ca52975fc1133554cbdc4d50c5b1 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-02].txt @@ -0,0 +1,68 @@ +##### Inflation outlook for 2025 + +The crowd expect inflation to be broadly contained and to drift toward target in many regions, but with notable regional variation and key US risk from tariffs, immigration policies, and fiscal actions. +In the US, inflation is more at risk of staying higher than target or re-accelerating unless policy eases faster, while in Europe and other regions inflation is generally seen as more likely to trend toward target with ongoing rate cuts. +Central banks are expected to move to easing in many economies, but the pace and magnitude vary; tariffs and policy shifts are the dominant upside risks to inflation in 2025. + +**Positive inflation outliers** (institutions with a constructive view on inflation staying low or moving toward target) + +- Pimco: Developed markets are on track to return to target inflation levels in 2025, implying a benign inflation backdrop overall. +- UniCredit: Trump 2.0 is likely to be less inflationary than feared, suggesting inflation pressures may be more contained than some expect. +- Amundi Investment Institute: Global inflation is expected to be benign/contained, with disinflation favorable to rate cuts; inflation pressure should ease as policy eases. +- Schroders: Inflation has moved in the right direction; they expect a soft landing with inflation coming down and rates falling in the US and Europe. +- Barclays Private Bank: Any tariffs-related inflation shock is expected to be short-lived, implying inflation won’t stay elevated for long. + +**Negative inflation outliers** (institutions with a more hawkish or inflationary view for 2025) + +- Citi: Tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration/deregulation could lift US inflation moderately in 2025, even if growth is broadly flat. +- Deutsche Bank: US inflation progress stalls; core PCE may stay at or above about 2.5% over the next couple of years. +- TD Securities: Tariffs could push US inflation up by about 1 percentage point into 2026, implying a stickier inflation path. +- Vanguard: Inflation risks could increase; core inflation stays above about 2.5% for much of 2025. +- NatWest: Upside risks to core goods prices from tariffs; end-2025 PCE inflation could be around 3.2% year-over-year (i.e., above target). +- Allspring Global Investments: US inflation is likely to progress toward the 2% target slowly and in a non-linear fashion (not a smooth glide). +- Capital Economics: Policy shifts under Trump could lift inflation and yields next year, i.e., a higher-inflation regime is possible. +- BNP Paribas Asset Management: Expect inflation to be higher than markets currently price in, with fewer rate cuts than priced in. + +(Additional note) Some other vendors flag inflation staying nearer to or above target in parts of Europe or EM, implying regional divergence rather than a uniform decline. + + + + +The core view is a US-led expansion with inflation broadly contained but not necessarily back to the Fed’s target quickly, given tariff and immigration risks. +The US is expected to lead global growth, aided by pro-growth policies, deregulation, and ongoing monetary easing in many regions (though some expect easing to be slower than markets currently price in). +Equities are seen as likely to broaden beyond the AI‑driven mega-cap rally, aided by AI adoption, improving earnings, and ongoing policy support; however valuations and policy uncertainty remain key risks. +Fixed income remains important for income and diversification, with a wide range of views on duration and credit in a world of higher-for-longer rates and potential fiscal stimulus. +Private markets and hedge funds are frequently recommended as diversifiers, given dispersion in outcomes and the difficulty of repeating last year’s equity performance. +Tariffs and policy shifts loom large as major downside risks, with potential for volatility and diverging regional outcomes. + +**Positive outliers** (firms with especially bullish or notably constructive 2025 views) + +- Bank of America (BofA): Goldilocks scenario for 2025 — roughly 3.25% GDP growth, about 2.5% inflation, a weaker US dollar, lower oil, and gold near $3,000/oz. Views a favorable, moderately positive global backdrop with ongoing monetary easing. +- Ned Davis Research (NDR): Skies mostly clear into 2025; bullish on US stocks on an absolute basis; themes include crypto, software AI, and durable goods; preference for a broad, cyclical tilt. +- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (and JPMorgan Asset Management): Positive on US risky assets; “US exceptionalism” reinforced; a pro-growth, pro-deregulation stance with easing in the background; breadth of rally expected as earnings grow across more stocks. +- BNY Mellon Investment Management (BNY): AI as a dominant long‑term driver; AI’s impact to surpass prior tech eras; overweight to US large-cap equities; broadening of leadership beyond megacaps. +- Neuberger Berman: “Above-trend growth” scenario for 2025; inflation contained; central banks can stay accommodative; policy supports earnings and growth. +- Schroders: Benign backdrop with a soft landing; inflation moving toward target; rates falling in the US and Europe; growth reaccelerates through 2025. +- Capital Group: Global growth diverging across regions with the US as a key driver; fed rate cuts likely; healthy environment for both stocks and bonds. +- UBS: US growth supported by deregulation and business confidence; US equities rise; bond yields drift lower on rate cuts toward neutral. +- Pictet Asset Management: Global growth around 2.8% in 2025; US leadership; resilient growth and falling rates should help equities outperform; relatively favorable valuation context outside a few overvalued areas. +- Amundi Investment Institute: Benign global outlook; central banks able to cut rates further; diversification emphasized as policy risk remains. +- Goldman Sachs Asset Management: Rate cuts progress in many regions; a broad-based but moderate positive returns environment with tail risks and policy uncertainty acknowledged. +- T. Rowe Price: Potential early 2025 slowdown followed by rapid rate cuts; shift from services to manufacturing due to AI and infrastructure build; constructive read on global growth. +- First Abu Dhabi Bank: Constructive view on US growth; productivity powered by deregulation and pro-business policies; global growth scenario still favorable overall. +- JPMorgan Wealth Management: Global easing cycle expected; US/Europe growth remains positive with volatility, but strategies favor balanced offense/defense. + +Others with constructive tones (briefly): Amundi, UBS, Capital Economics, and certain private-market/alternative strategists who emphasize diversification and AI/factory of growth themes. + +**Negative outliers** (firms with notably cautious or bearish/slower-growth views) + +- Wells Fargo Investment Institute: Highlights increased probability of a global recession and tariff-driven headwinds; warns that tariffs could materially slow growth and elevate macro uncertainty. +- Deutsche Bank (macro/euro view): Sees stronger US growth but a slower, weaker eurozone path (euro area around 0.8% growth in 2025; UK around 1.3%); Europe faces meaningful downside risk relative to the US. +- Barclays Private Bank: Cautions that some of the early returns in 2025 may have already materialized; expects more muted returns ahead; recommends focusing on quality and valuations, implying a more cyclical/defensive tilt. +- BCA Research: While acknowledging potential US upside from tax cuts/deregulation, also flags the risk of a larger tariff shock and a path where tariffs/or policy could weigh on global growth; less comfortable with a too-elevated equity risk posture in some scenarios. +- TD Securities: Notes heightened uncertainty and greater regional divergence; suggests a more fragmented global picture than in a straightforward soft landing. + +(Somewhat mixed but skewing cautious) Deutsche Bank’s Europe outlook and the risk of inflationary spillovers from tariffs, plus a general note that policy paths may not converge quickly enough for all regions. +In short + +The consensus on balance is US-led growth with inflation contained; AI and deregulation are seen as major upside catalysts for 2025, with a broadening equity rally and income-oriented fixed income strategies. Positive outliers emphasize strong US leadership, AI-driven productivity, and a soft-landing scenario across major markets. Negative outliers center on policy risk (tariffs, immigration, deficits), euro-area slowdown, and higher uncertainty around the size/tace of rate cuts, suggesting more caution and a potential for volatility or downside surprises in some regions. diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-03].txt b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-03].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..33cb51ab329aed79852b1334b510636cc9ac525b --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-03].txt @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +##### Overall Fed/rate-cut view for 2025 + +Most forecasters expect the Fed to ease in 2025, but the pace, magnitude, and terminal rate vary a lot by forecaster. +The central tension is whether rate cuts come in a steady, front-loaded fashion or are delayed by inflation persistence or policy uncertainty (often tied to tariffs and immigration policy). +Several institutions anticipate a multi-quarter easing cycle, while a subset expect only a modest amount of cuts or a mid-year pause before any further reductions. +Regional inflation dynamics, fiscal/tariff policy, and global easing pathways help determine whether the Fed cuts are aggressive or cautious. + +**Positive outliers** (forecasters more bullish/dovish on Fed policy and rate cuts in 2025) + +- Bank of America: Projects a meaningful easing path with the Fed cutting in the first half of 2025 and ending the year with a few rate cuts (the easing cycle to about mid-2025). Overall dovish on the Fed relative to markets pricing more aggressively. +- Morgan Stanley: Calls for substantial 2025 rate cuts (about 75–100 basis points by year-end 2025), i.e., a clear bias toward a softer Fed path. +- JPMorgan Chase & Co. / JPMorgan Asset Management: Expect a global easing cycle with policy rates moving lower in 2025, supported by improving growth and earnings; US policy likely to follow a softer path as inflation remains contained. +- Invesco: Sees the Fed funds rate ending around 3.5% in 2025, i.e., a meaningful reduction from the current level, with broader easing across major economies. +- Northern Trust Asset Management: Base case is a US soft-landing with gradual rate cuts; a constructive path for equities and bonds as the Fed eases. +- UBS: Positive tilt toward rate cuts toward neutral as inflation cools and growth improves; Fed likely to cut toward a neutral policy stance. +- Amundi Investment Institute: Benign global inflation and room for further easing; Fed cuts are plausible as part of a broader easing cycle. +- Goldman Sachs Asset Management: Sees rate cuts progressing across major economies in 2025, implying a broadly positive environment for assets as policy eases. +- Capital Group: Fed rate cuts are plausible and could be a powerful tailwind for both stock and bond markets as inflation stays contained. +- Citi (inflation-focused notes aside): Some views imply that tariffs and policy could push inflation modestly higher, but in the Fed-policy context a number of forecasters still expect some easing in 2025; when they do stake a view, it’s often cautious to moderate on cuts (included here as a broad easing bias from - Citi’s framing in other sections). + +**Negative outliers** (forecasters more hawkish or expecting minimal cuts/tighter Fed path) + +- TD Securities: Sees a delayed Fed easing path with a six-month pause after an initial move, then a slower resume; implies the Fed could end up at about 3% by mid-2026, i.e., a noticeably less aggressive 2025 easing path. +- Deutsche Bank: UK/Europe aside, their US view is relatively hawkish for 2025, with a higher terminal rate than previously expected and inflation pressures sustaining, suggesting fewer or more gradual cuts. +- UniCredit: Fed cuts in 2025 are likely but at a slower pace, with the funds rate potentially staying around 3.75–4% through 2026; a slower, higher-for-longer path than many. +- Pictet Asset Management: Signals that the Fed could disappoint by cutting less than market hopes, with the funds rate ending around 4.25% in 2025 (i.e., less aggressive easing than some peers). +- Capital Economics: Their 2025 call features a higher end to policy rates (3.5%–3.75% by year-end) and a slower pace of cuts than some other forecasters. +- BNP Paribas Asset Management (within Fed/rates framing): Anticipates higher-than-market-inflation pressure and suggests the Fed may not cut as much as markets expect. +- BNP Paribas (macro/funding view): Notes the Fed may stay higher for longer given deficits and policy mix, implying more modest cuts than some other forecasters. +- First Abu Dhabi Bank (monetary policy framing): Expects the ECB/BoE to move quicker than the Fed in easing, i.e., a relatively slower or less aggressive Fed easing path. + +Several forecasters emphasize that tariff/policy uncertainty could keep inflation sticky and thus keep the Fed on a slower pace or higher neutral rate than wide-market pricing implies. +A number of positive outliers frame 2025 as a gradual, credible easing cycle that helps risk assets and supports a broadening market rally. +Negative outliers stress a higher terminal rate, slower pace of cuts, or a mid-to-late-2025 pause that could delay the full benefits of easing. diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-04].txt b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-04].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0f9d0000d730ad349c1605c37207485d3a648ad5 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-04].txt @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +##### Overall equity-market outlook for 2025 + +The prevailing view is that US equities should remain the leadership driver, but the rally is expected to broaden beyond the megacaps as AI, deregulation, and earnings growth support a broader set of stocks. +Global equities may diverge: the US could outperform, while Europe and some EMs face more headwinds from tariffs, policy uncertainty, or weaker growth. +Valuations are a concern in parts of the market, so many strategists emphasize breadth, quality, and pockets of value or mid-/small-cap opportunities. +The big swing factors are policy/diplomacy (tariffs, immigration, deregulation), AI-driven productivity, and the pace of central-bank easing. These shape earnings visibility, sector leadership, and the valuation multiple investors are willing to pay. + +**Positive outliers** (firms with notably positive, bullish views on 2025 equity markets) + +- Bank of America (BofA): Sees a “goldilocks” global backdrop in 2025, with modest growth and inflation, ongoing easing, and US leadership; expects S&P gains and some rotation toward international markets. +- Deutsche Bank: Very constructive on US equities, with a 7,000 target for the S&P 500 in 2025, implying solid upside despite Europe’s slower path. +- Evercore ISI: Bullish case for broadening equity gains supported by earnings growth, continued easing, and AI-driven productivity; targets mid/high single-digit to ~6,800 for the S&P 500 depending on scenario. +- Ned Davis Research (NDR): Positive on US stocks, sees a favorable environment for a broad rally, and highlights themes like crypto, AI software, and durable goods. +- JPMorgan Chase & Co. / JPMorgan Asset Management: Positive on US risky assets and “US exceptionalism” continuing; sees a broadening rally as earnings recover across more stocks. +- BNY Mell on Investment Management (BNY): AI becomes a major growth driver; overweight on US large caps with leadership broadening beyond megacaps. +- UBS: US growth supported by deregulation and business confidence; US equities anticipated to rise as yields drift lower with rate cuts. +- Pictet Asset Management: Global growth near ~2.8% with US leadership; equities expected to outperform bonds as rates fall and earnings stay resilient. +- Amundi Investment Institute: Global inflation benign and policy easing likely; a supportive backdrop for equities through a diversified, risk-managed stance. +- JPMorgan Wealth Management: Global easing cycle expected; balanced positioning should still favor equities as growth remains constructive. +- T. Rowe Price: Sees a shift in the cycle (manufacturing and infrastructure driven by AI) supporting equities; an overall constructive growth backdrop. +- State Street Global Advisors (SSGA): Rate cuts and macro resilience to continue; a US soft-landing supports equities. +- Morgan Stanley: Moderate growth, disinflation, and further equity/bond upside supported by easing; equities attractive within a balanced, diversified portfolio. +- Russell Investments: US small caps look appealing as part of a broadened equity upcycle; favorable tilt to value/mid-caps in 2025. +- Wells Fargo Investment Institute: Earnings-led upside for 2025; a sustainable broadening of the equity rally with a mid-6,000s S&P path in view. +- Capital Group, Amundi, AXA Investment Managers, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and many other big houses also flag a constructive, by-no-means exuberant, path for equities with selective opportunities outside the megacaps. + +**Negative outliers** (firms with notably negative or more cautious views on 2025 equities) + +- BCA Research: Cautions on risk/build-up; still sees strong US growth in some scenarios but favors underweight to stocks versus bonds in the 6–12 month horizon, warning that tariffs and policy could weigh on equity returns. +- Citi: Inflation/tariff risk could cap upside; while some bets on a softer cycle remain, they stress uncertain returns from tariffs and policy as a major downside risk to equities. +- BNP Paribas Asset Management: While not outright bearish everywhere, they flag Europe’s still-challenging growth and higher uncertainty around US tariffs, implying more cautious regional positioning for equities. +- Barclays Private Bank: Sees some early 2025 returns having already materialized; overall message is more muted forward-looking equity gains and a push toward quality/valuation discipline. +- TD Securities: Highlights heightened global uncertainty and regional divergence; a less synchronized, more fragile equity path than other forecasters imply. +- Lombard Odier: Cautious on the US/Tariffs regime; argues that trade frictions and policy uncertainty could restrain upside and lead to more volatility. +- Robeco: Describes a treacherous macro climate and a “ceci n’est pas un landing” stance; warns that returns could be choppier and more idiosyncratic across regions. +- UniCredit: US rate-cut timing may be slower than peers; a higher-for-longer path and potential volatility could cap near-term equity gains. +- BNP Paribas (macro view) and First Abu Dhabi Bank notes: more cautious on the steadiness or magnitude of an equity rally due to policy/inflation dynamics and the pace of easing. +- Citi (also listed as cautious) and some Europe-focused views emphasize that tariffs, energy, and geopolitical tensions could cap upside and raise volatility. + diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-05].txt b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-05].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5431f1286f588cc745cff4f4958d2fa8e5b52442 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/Datapoint[01-01-05].txt @@ -0,0 +1,29 @@ +##### Tariffs outlook for 2025 + +Tariff policy is expected to be a dominant risk/driver, with discussions about broad-based measures and targeted actions. The pace and scope are highly uncertain. +Some forecasters assume tariffs will be rolled out incrementally or used as bargaining tools, which could generate short‑term inflation pressure and macro volatility but may not derail growth. +Others warn of a broader, more persistent tariff regime that could weigh on global growth, raise inflation, and sustain policy uncertainty. +The US dollar is often viewed as potentially strengthening on tariff headlines, while growth trajectories and inflation paths become more divergent across regions. + +**Positive outliers** (forecasters more upbeat or cautious about tariffs, i.e., implying smaller or shorter-lived negative impacts) + +- Barclays Private Bank: Tariffs could deliver a short-lived inflation shock, but the US economy should move on within a few quarters; downside risks are tempered by policy responses and adaptability. +- Charles Schwab: Tariff threats are likely to be negotiation tools rather than lasting shocks; upside comes from resilience in growth and potential policy easing that offsets tariff headwinds. +- Schroders: Tariffs are uncertain and hard to implement; they could spur reshoring and, with offsetting monetary stimulus abroad, may not derail the outlook—partial upside via policy responses. +- JPMorgan Chase & Co. / JPMorgan Asset Management: Tariffs are a notable risk but not necessarily a devastating shock; the view emphasizes resilient growth and a broader, potentially positive earnings backdrop if policy shifts support activity. +- Capital Group (view in tariffs context): Tariffs could be supportive of US growth in some scenarios, though they also carry risks like higher inflation and a stronger dollar; the net effect is seen as nuanced rather than outright negative. +- First Abu Dhabi Bank (tariffs context): Scenario-based view where positive derivatives from tax cuts and pro-business deregulatory steps could offset some tariff headwinds, keeping a constructive tilt. +- Amundi Investment Institute (tariffs context): Policymaking and easing should help contain inflation and support risk assets; tariffs are a risk, but a contained one in their base case. + +**Negative outliers** (forecasters more hawkish or scarred by tariff risks) + +- BCA Research: Major trade action in 2025 seen as likely negative for global and US growth, with meaningful downside risk from tariff shocks. +- Deutsche Bank: Tariffs contribute to a weaker, more divergent path for Europe and a higher stance on US/inflation risk; not constructive for global growth unless offset by policy. +- Morgan Stanley: Tariffs can slow economic activity with a lag, potentially weighing on growth into late 2025 and 2026. +- TD Securities: Sees heightened uncertainty and regional divergence from tariff impacts; a less synchronized, more fragile path than the base case. +- Citi: Tariffs, combined with immigration and tax policy dynamics, could push inflation higher and weigh on growth, creating a downside risk to equities and macro outlook. +- BNP Paribas Asset Management: Tariffs add to inflation pressures and complicate the growth/inflation mix, especially for open EM economies; more cautious stance on global impact. +- Lombard Odier: More adversarial US trade policy could restrain upside and raise volatility; a cautionary stance on the tariff pathway. +- UniCredit: Fed/tariff dynamics imply a slower, higher-for-longer tilt which could cap upside in risk assets and keep policy uncertainty elevated. +- BNP Paribas (macro view) and First Abu Dhabi Bank (tariffs framing): More cautious about the steadiness or magnitude of a tariff-driven rally, highlighting higher inflation risk and slower policy normalization. + diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/Outlook_Summaries.txt b/pages/modules/Module_01/Outlook_Summaries.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e67cc87d4540ef81d9cf077b1297a2d7e6c48f44 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/Outlook_Summaries.txt @@ -0,0 +1,200 @@ +Provide a summary of the GENERAL MARKET outlook for 2025. +Which firms are positive outliers and what are their opinions? +Which firms are negative outliers and what are their opinions? + +Overall 2025 Outlook + +The core view is a US-led expansion with inflation broadly contained but not necessarily back to the Fed’s target quickly, given tariff and immigration risks. +The US is expected to lead global growth, aided by pro-growth policies, deregulation, and ongoing monetary easing in many regions (though some expect easing to be slower than markets currently price in). +Equities are seen as likely to broaden beyond the AI‑driven mega-cap rally, aided by AI adoption, improving earnings, and ongoing policy support; however valuations and policy uncertainty remain key risks. +Fixed income remains important for income and diversification, with a wide range of views on duration and credit in a world of higher-for-longer rates and potential fiscal stimulus. +Private markets and hedge funds are frequently recommended as diversifiers, given dispersion in outcomes and the difficulty of repeating last year’s equity performance. +Tariffs and policy shifts loom large as major downside risks, with potential for volatility and diverging regional outcomes. + +*Positive outliers (firms with especially bullish or notably constructive 2025 views) + +- Bank of America (BofA): Goldilocks scenario for 2025 — roughly 3.25% GDP growth, about 2.5% inflation, a weaker US dollar, lower oil, and gold near $3,000/oz. Views a favorable, moderately positive global backdrop with ongoing monetary easing. +- Ned Davis Research (NDR): Skies mostly clear into 2025; bullish on US stocks on an absolute basis; themes include crypto, software AI, and durable goods; preference for a broad, cyclical tilt. +- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (and JPMorgan Asset Management): Positive on US risky assets; “US exceptionalism” reinforced; a pro-growth, pro-deregulation stance with easing in the background; breadth of rally expected as earnings grow across more stocks. +- BNY Mellon Investment Management (BNY): AI as a dominant long‑term driver; AI’s impact to surpass prior tech eras; overweight to US large-cap equities; broadening of leadership beyond megacaps. +- Neuberger Berman: “Above-trend growth” scenario for 2025; inflation contained; central banks can stay accommodative; policy supports earnings and growth. +- Schroders: Benign backdrop with a soft landing; inflation moving toward target; rates falling in the US and Europe; growth reaccelerates through 2025. +- Capital Group: Global growth diverging across regions with the US as a key driver; fed rate cuts likely; healthy environment for both stocks and bonds. +- UBS: US growth supported by deregulation and business confidence; US equities rise; bond yields drift lower on rate cuts toward neutral. +- Pictet Asset Management: Global growth around 2.8% in 2025; US leadership; resilient growth and falling rates should help equities outperform; relatively favorable valuation context outside a few overvalued areas. +- Amundi Investment Institute: Benign global outlook; central banks able to cut rates further; diversification emphasized as policy risk remains. +- Goldman Sachs Asset Management: Rate cuts progress in many regions; a broad-based but moderate positive returns environment with tail risks and policy uncertainty acknowledged. +- T. Rowe Price: Potential early 2025 slowdown followed by rapid rate cuts; shift from services to manufacturing due to AI and infrastructure build; constructive read on global growth. +- First Abu Dhabi Bank: Constructive view on US growth; productivity powered by deregulation and pro-business policies; global growth scenario still favorable overall. +- JPMorgan Wealth Management: Global easing cycle expected; US/Europe growth remains positive with volatility, but strategies favor balanced offense/defense. + +Others with constructive tones (briefly): Amundi, UBS, Capital Economics, and certain private-market/alternative strategists who emphasize diversification and AI/factory of growth themes. + +*Negative outliers (firms with notably cautious or bearish/slower-growth views) + +- Wells Fargo Investment Institute: Highlights increased probability of a global recession and tariff-driven headwinds; warns that tariffs could materially slow growth and elevate macro uncertainty. +- Deutsche Bank (macro/euro view): Sees stronger US growth but a slower, weaker eurozone path (euro area around 0.8% growth in 2025; UK around 1.3%); Europe faces meaningful downside risk relative to the US. +- Barclays Private Bank: Cautions that some of the early returns in 2025 may have already materialized; expects more muted returns ahead; recommends focusing on quality and valuations, implying a more cyclical/defensive tilt. +- BCA Research: While acknowledging potential US upside from tax cuts/deregulation, also flags the risk of a larger tariff shock and a path where tariffs/or policy could weigh on global growth; less comfortable with a too-elevated equity risk posture in some scenarios. +- TD Securities: Notes heightened uncertainty and greater regional divergence; suggests a more fragmented global picture than in a straightforward soft landing. + +(Somewhat mixed but skewing cautious) Deutsche Bank’s Europe outlook and the risk of inflationary spillovers from tariffs, plus a general note that policy paths may not converge quickly enough for all regions. +In short + +The consensus on balance is US-led growth with inflation contained; AI and deregulation are seen as major upside catalysts for 2025, with a broadening equity rally and income-oriented fixed income strategies. Positive outliers emphasize strong US leadership, AI-driven productivity, and a soft-landing scenario across major markets. Negative outliers center on policy risk (tariffs, immigration, deficits), euro-area slowdown, and higher uncertainty around the size/tace of rate cuts, suggesting more caution and a potential for volatility or downside surprises in some regions. + + +-- + + + + + +Provide a summary of the outlook for INFLATION in 2025. which firms were positive outliers and what were their opinions? Which firms were negative outliers and what were their opinions? + +Inflation outlook for 2025 + +The crowd expect inflation to be broadly contained and to drift toward target in many regions, but with notable regional variation and key US risk from tariffs, immigration policies, and fiscal actions. +In the US, inflation is more at risk of staying higher than target or re-accelerating unless policy eases faster, while in Europe and other regions inflation is generally seen as more likely to trend toward target with ongoing rate cuts. +Central banks are expected to move to easing in many economies, but the pace and magnitude vary; tariffs and policy shifts are the dominant upside risks to inflation in 2025. +Positive inflation outliers (institutions with a constructive view on inflation staying low or moving toward target) + +Pimco: Developed markets are on track to return to target inflation levels in 2025, implying a benign inflation backdrop overall. +UniCredit: Trump 2.0 is likely to be less inflationary than feared, suggesting inflation pressures may be more contained than some expect. +Amundi Investment Institute: Global inflation is expected to be benign/contained, with disinflation favorable to rate cuts; inflation pressure should ease as policy eases. +Schroders: Inflation has moved in the right direction; they expect a soft landing with inflation coming down and rates falling in the US and Europe. +Barclays Private Bank: Any tariffs-related inflation shock is expected to be short-lived, implying inflation won’t stay elevated for long. +Negative inflation outliers (institutions with a more hawkish or inflationary view for 2025) + +Citi: Tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration/deregulation could lift US inflation moderately in 2025, even if growth is broadly flat. +Deutsche Bank: US inflation progress stalls; core PCE may stay at or above about 2.5% over the next couple of years. +TD Securities: Tariffs could push US inflation up by about 1 percentage point into 2026, implying a stickier inflation path. +Vanguard: Inflation risks could increase; core inflation stays above about 2.5% for much of 2025. +NatWest: Upside risks to core goods prices from tariffs; end-2025 PCE inflation could be around 3.2% year-over-year (i.e., above target). +Allspring Global Investments: US inflation is likely to progress toward the 2% target slowly and in a non-linear fashion (not a smooth glide). +Capital Economics: Policy shifts under Trump could lift inflation and yields next year, i.e., a higher-inflation regime is possible. +BNP Paribas Asset Management: Expect inflation to be higher than markets currently price in, with fewer rate cuts than priced in. +(Additional note) Some other vendors flag inflation staying nearer to or above target in parts of Europe or EM, implying regional divergence rather than a uniform decline. + + + + +Provide a summary of the outlook for FED POLICY and RATE CUTS in 2025. which firms were positive outliers and what were their opinions. Which firms were negative outliers and what were their opinions + + +Overall Fed/rate-cut view for 2025 + +Most forecasters expect the Fed to ease in 2025, but the pace, magnitude, and terminal rate vary a lot by forecaster. +The central tension is whether rate cuts come in a steady, front-loaded fashion or are delayed by inflation persistence or policy uncertainty (often tied to tariffs and immigration policy). +Several institutions anticipate a multi-quarter easing cycle, while a subset expect only a modest amount of cuts or a mid-year pause before any further reductions. +Regional inflation dynamics, fiscal/tariff policy, and global easing pathways help determine whether the Fed cuts are aggressive or cautious. +Positive outliers (forecasters more bullish/dovish on Fed policy and rate cuts in 2025) + +Bank of America: Projects a meaningful easing path with the Fed cutting in the first half of 2025 and ending the year with a few rate cuts (the easing cycle to about mid-2025). Overall dovish on the Fed relative to markets pricing more aggressively. +Morgan Stanley: Calls for substantial 2025 rate cuts (about 75–100 basis points by year-end 2025), i.e., a clear bias toward a softer Fed path. +JPMorgan Chase & Co. / JPMorgan Asset Management: Expect a global easing cycle with policy rates moving lower in 2025, supported by improving growth and earnings; US policy likely to follow a softer path as inflation remains contained. +Invesco: Sees the Fed funds rate ending around 3.5% in 2025, i.e., a meaningful reduction from the current level, with broader easing across major economies. +Northern Trust Asset Management: Base case is a US soft-landing with gradual rate cuts; a constructive path for equities and bonds as the Fed eases. +UBS: Positive tilt toward rate cuts toward neutral as inflation cools and growth improves; Fed likely to cut toward a neutral policy stance. +Amundi Investment Institute: Benign global inflation and room for further easing; Fed cuts are plausible as part of a broader easing cycle. +Goldman Sachs Asset Management: Sees rate cuts progressing across major economies in 2025, implying a broadly positive environment for assets as policy eases. +Capital Group: Fed rate cuts are plausible and could be a powerful tailwind for both stock and bond markets as inflation stays contained. +Citi (inflation-focused notes aside): Some views imply that tariffs and policy could push inflation modestly higher, but in the Fed-policy context a number of forecasters still expect some easing in 2025; when they do stake a view, it’s often cautious to moderate on cuts (included here as a broad easing bias from Citi’s framing in other sections). +Negative outliers (forecasters more hawkish or expecting minimal cuts/tighter Fed path) + +TD Securities: Sees a delayed Fed easing path with a six-month pause after an initial move, then a slower resume; implies the Fed could end up at about 3% by mid-2026, i.e., a noticeably less aggressive 2025 easing path. +Deutsche Bank: UK/Europe aside, their US view is relatively hawkish for 2025, with a higher terminal rate than previously expected and inflation pressures sustaining, suggesting fewer or more gradual cuts. +UniCredit: Fed cuts in 2025 are likely but at a slower pace, with the funds rate potentially staying around 3.75–4% through 2026; a slower, higher-for-longer path than many. +Pictet Asset Management: Signals that the Fed could disappoint by cutting less than market hopes, with the funds rate ending around 4.25% in 2025 (i.e., less aggressive easing than some peers). +Capital Economics: Their 2025 call features a higher end to policy rates (3.5%–3.75% by year-end) and a slower pace of cuts than some other forecasters. +BNP Paribas Asset Management (within Fed/rates framing): Anticipates higher-than-market-inflation pressure and suggests the Fed may not cut as much as markets expect. +BNP Paribas (macro/funding view): Notes the Fed may stay higher for longer given deficits and policy mix, implying more modest cuts than some other forecasters. +First Abu Dhabi Bank (monetary policy framing): Expects the ECB/BoE to move quicker than the Fed in easing, i.e., a relatively slower or less aggressive Fed easing path. +Notes and nuance + +Several forecasters emphasize that tariff/policy uncertainty could keep inflation sticky and thus keep the Fed on a slower pace or higher neutral rate than wide-market pricing implies. +A number of positive outliers frame 2025 as a gradual, credible easing cycle that helps risk assets and supports a broadening market rally. +Negative outliers stress a higher terminal rate, slower pace of cuts, or a mid-to-late-2025 pause that could delay the full benefits of easing. + + +-- + +Provide a summary of the outlook for EQUITY MARKETS in 2025. Which firms are positive outliers and what are their opinions ? Which firms are negative outliers and what are their opinions ? + +Overall equity-market outlook for 2025 + +The prevailing view is that US equities should remain the leadership driver, but the rally is expected to broaden beyond the megacaps as AI, deregulation, and earnings growth support a broader set of stocks. +Global equities may diverge: the US could outperform, while Europe and some EMs face more headwinds from tariffs, policy uncertainty, or weaker growth. +Valuations are a concern in parts of the market, so many strategists emphasize breadth, quality, and pockets of value or mid-/small-cap opportunities. +The big swing factors are policy/diplomacy (tariffs, immigration, deregulation), AI-driven productivity, and the pace of central-bank easing. These shape earnings visibility, sector leadership, and the valuation multiple investors are willing to pay. + +Positive outliers (firms with notably positive, bullish views on 2025 equity markets) + +Bank of America (BofA): Sees a “goldilocks” global backdrop in 2025, with modest growth and inflation, ongoing easing, and US leadership; expects S&P gains and some rotation toward international markets. +Deutsche Bank: Very constructive on US equities, with a 7,000 target for the S&P 500 in 2025, implying solid upside despite Europe’s slower path. +Evercore ISI: Bullish case for broadening equity gains supported by earnings growth, continued easing, and AI-driven productivity; targets mid/high single-digit to ~6,800 for the S&P 500 depending on scenario. +Ned Davis Research (NDR): Positive on US stocks, sees a favorable environment for a broad rally, and highlights themes like crypto, AI software, and durable goods. +JPMorgan Chase & Co. / JPMorgan Asset Management: Positive on US risky assets and “US exceptionalism” continuing; sees a broadening rally as earnings recover across more stocks. +BNY Mell on Investment Management (BNY): AI becomes a major growth driver; overweight on US large caps with leadership broadening beyond megacaps. +UBS: US growth supported by deregulation and business confidence; US equities anticipated to rise as yields drift lower with rate cuts. +Pictet Asset Management: Global growth near ~2.8% with US leadership; equities expected to outperform bonds as rates fall and earnings stay resilient. +Amundi Investment Institute: Global inflation benign and policy easing likely; a supportive backdrop for equities through a diversified, risk-managed stance. +JPMorgan Wealth Management: Global easing cycle expected; balanced positioning should still favor equities as growth remains constructive. +T. Rowe Price: Sees a shift in the cycle (manufacturing and infrastructure driven by AI) supporting equities; an overall constructive growth backdrop. +State Street Global Advisors (SSGA): Rate cuts and macro resilience to continue; a US soft-landing supports equities. +Morgan Stanley: Moderate growth, disinflation, and further equity/bond upside supported by easing; equities attractive within a balanced, diversified portfolio. +Russell Investments: US small caps look appealing as part of a broadened equity upcycle; favorable tilt to value/mid-caps in 2025. +Wells Fargo Investment Institute: Earnings-led upside for 2025; a sustainable broadening of the equity rally with a mid-6,000s S&P path in view. +Capital Group, Amundi, AXA Investment Managers, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and many other big houses also flag a constructive, by-no-means exuberant, path for equities with selective opportunities outside the megacaps. + +Negative outliers (firms with notably negative or more cautious views on 2025 equities) + +BCA Research: Cautions on risk/build-up; still sees strong US growth in some scenarios but favors underweight to stocks versus bonds in the 6–12 month horizon, warning that tariffs and policy could weigh on equity returns. +Citi: Inflation/tariff risk could cap upside; while some bets on a softer cycle remain, they stress uncertain returns from tariffs and policy as a major downside risk to equities. +BNP Paribas Asset Management: While not outright bearish everywhere, they flag Europe’s still-challenging growth and higher uncertainty around US tariffs, implying more cautious regional positioning for equities. +Barclays Private Bank: Sees some early 2025 returns having already materialized; overall message is more muted forward-looking equity gains and a push toward quality/valuation discipline. +TD Securities: Highlights heightened global uncertainty and regional divergence; a less synchronized, more fragile equity path than other forecasters imply. +Lombard Odier: Cautious on the US/Tariffs regime; argues that trade frictions and policy uncertainty could restrain upside and lead to more volatility. +Robeco: Describes a treacherous macro climate and a “ceci n’est pas un landing” stance; warns that returns could be choppier and more idiosyncratic across regions. +UniCredit: US rate-cut timing may be slower than peers; a higher-for-longer path and potential volatility could cap near-term equity gains. +BNP Paribas (macro view) and First Abu Dhabi Bank notes: more cautious on the steadiness or magnitude of an equity rally due to policy/inflation dynamics and the pace of easing. +Citi (also listed as cautious) and some Europe-focused views emphasize that tariffs, energy, and geopolitical tensions could cap upside and raise volatility. + + +-- + +Provide a summary of the outlook for TARIFFS in 2025. Which firms are positive outliers and what are their opinions ? Which firms are negative outliers and what are their opinions ? + +Tariffs outlook for 2025 (key themes) + +Tariff policy is expected to be a dominant risk/driver, with discussions about broad-based measures and targeted actions. The pace and scope are highly uncertain. +Some forecasters assume tariffs will be rolled out incrementally or used as bargaining tools, which could generate short‑term inflation pressure and macro volatility but may not derail growth. +Others warn of a broader, more persistent tariff regime that could weigh on global growth, raise inflation, and sustain policy uncertainty. +The US dollar is often viewed as potentially strengthening on tariff headlines, while growth trajectories and inflation paths become more divergent across regions. +Positive outliers (forecasters more upbeat or cautious about tariffs, i.e., implying smaller or shorter-lived negative impacts) + +Barclays Private Bank: Tariffs could deliver a short-lived inflation shock, but the US economy should move on within a few quarters; downside risks are tempered by policy responses and adaptability. +Charles Schwab: Tariff threats are likely to be negotiation tools rather than lasting shocks; upside comes from resilience in growth and potential policy easing that offsets tariff headwinds. +Schroders: Tariffs are uncertain and hard to implement; they could spur reshoring and, with offsetting monetary stimulus abroad, may not derail the outlook—partial upside via policy responses. +JPMorgan Chase & Co. / JPMorgan Asset Management: Tariffs are a notable risk but not necessarily a devastating shock; the view emphasizes resilient growth and a broader, potentially positive earnings backdrop if policy shifts support activity. +Capital Group (view in tariffs context): Tariffs could be supportive of US growth in some scenarios, though they also carry risks like higher inflation and a stronger dollar; the net effect is seen as nuanced rather than outright negative. +First Abu Dhabi Bank (tariffs context): Scenario-based view where positive derivatives from tax cuts and pro-business deregulatory steps could offset some tariff headwinds, keeping a constructive tilt. +Amundi Investment Institute (tariffs context): Policymaking and easing should help contain inflation and support risk assets; tariffs are a risk, but a contained one in their base case. +Negative outliers (forecasters more hawkish or scarred by tariff risks) + +BCA Research: Major trade action in 2025 seen as likely negative for global and US growth, with meaningful downside risk from tariff shocks. +Deutsche Bank: Tariffs contribute to a weaker, more divergent path for Europe and a higher stance on US/inflation risk; not constructive for global growth unless offset by policy. +Morgan Stanley: Tariffs can slow economic activity with a lag, potentially weighing on growth into late 2025 and 2026. +TD Securities: Sees heightened uncertainty and regional divergence from tariff impacts; a less synchronized, more fragile path than the base case. +Citi: Tariffs, combined with immigration and tax policy dynamics, could push inflation higher and weigh on growth, creating a downside risk to equities and macro outlook. +BNP Paribas Asset Management: Tariffs add to inflation pressures and complicate the growth/inflation mix, especially for open EM economies; more cautious stance on global impact. +Lombard Odier: More adversarial US trade policy could restrain upside and raise volatility; a cautionary stance on the tariff pathway. +UniCredit: Fed/tariff dynamics imply a slower, higher-for-longer tilt which could cap upside in risk assets and keep policy uncertainty elevated. +BNP Paribas (macro view) and First Abu Dhabi Bank (tariffs framing): More cautious about the steadiness or magnitude of a tariff-driven rally, highlighting higher inflation risk and slower policy normalization. + +-- + + + + + diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/Overview.txt b/pages/modules/Module_01/Overview.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ab87ca39c743bca4cc49dd992d8584d351a4e844 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/Overview.txt @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +Market Outlook +--- +PDF: "pages/modules/Module_01/Stock_Market_2025_Outlook.pdf" +--- +##### Overall outlook for 2025 +Datapoint[01-01-01] +Provide a summary of the OVERALL outlook for 2025. +Which firms are positive outliers and what are their opinions? +Which firms are negative outliers and what are their opinions? +End Datapoint +--- +##### Inflation outlook for 2025 +Datapoint[01-01-02] +Provide a summary of the INFLATION outlook for 2025. +Which firms are positive outliers and what are their opinions? +Which firms are negative outliers and what are their opinions? +End Datapoint +--- +##### Central Bank outlook for 2025 +Datapoint[01-01-03] +Provide a summary of the FED POLICY and RATE CUTS outlook for 2025. +Which firms are positive outliers and what are their opinions? +Which firms are negative outliers and what are their opinions? +End Datapoint +--- +##### Equity Market outlook for 2025 +Datapoint[01-01-04] +Provide a summary of the EQUITY MARKET outlook for 2025. +Which firms are positive outliers and what are their opinions? +Which firms are negative outliers and what are their opinions? +End Datapoint +--- +##### Tariff outlook for 2025 +Datapoint[01-01-05] +Provide a summary of the outlook for TARIFFS in 2025. +Which firms are positive outliers and what are their opinions? +Which firms are negative outliers and what are their opinions? +End Datapoint \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/Stock_Market_2025_Outlook.pdf b/pages/modules/Module_01/Stock_Market_2025_Outlook.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5c48df2494ca982b830d9c5a4d4a51075a3c7094 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/Stock_Market_2025_Outlook.pdf @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:26a4a0891c8f1b5ff22b4a12bf4fe2538452bba68dd2898293e2494737ac4899 +size 4251356 diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/What Wall Street Expects in 2025.txt b/pages/modules/Module_01/What Wall Street Expects in 2025.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ace1d969c58e0c2b816fc3495b23a84b9c3d4685 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/What Wall Street Expects in 2025.txt @@ -0,0 +1,3276 @@ +What Wall Street Expects in 2025 + +Bloomberg collated over 700 key calls from more than 50 leading financial institutions presenting them here: +https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-investment-outlooks/ + +Source Text from Report + +Summary + +The US economy and assets are once again expected to power ahead, enjoying new momentum from Trump and benefitting from the comparative lack of appeal of other major markets, many of which could be hit by his tariffs. This will be a world, says JPMorgan Chase & Co., “where US exceptionalism gets reinforced.” + +Inflation is seen as broadly contained, albeit unlikely to fall to target as Trump throws up trade barriers and takes a hard line on immigration. “It will take longer than expected for the Fed to travel the last mile toward its inflation goal,” Apollo Global Management says. It’s one of multiple firms that think interest rates will be cut more slowly than currently priced by the market. + +Pretty much every institution warns investors not to expect another year of equity returns topping 20%, just like they did a year ago. But few are ready to call an end to the artificial intelligence-fueled stock boom. BNY believes “AI’s role in the world will surpass that of other technologies that propelled earlier periods of tidal change.” While no one else quite matches that bullishness, many expect gains to broaden as adoption of the tech spreads. + +And it may not be a “year of the bond,” given current tight pricing and ongoing worries about excessive government borrowing. But starting yields across both rates and credit are solid, and many firms would agree with the sentiment captured by Schroders: “The old-fashioned reason for owning bonds — to generate income — is back.” + +Meanwhile, with lower returns expected from key assets like stocks and so much uncertainty surrounding Trump and US policy, diversification is the name of the game, Wall Street reckons. Look to alternative assets like private markets and hedge funds, firms say. And of course, many urge you to rely on your trusty professional money manager to help navigate this complex landscape. + +This year, the calls have been divided into sections covering the key themes and assets. In each section they are ordered by their level of conviction, as judged by Bloomberg, with the highest-conviction calls appearing first. Where levels of confidence are similar, the calls are ordered alphabetically by institution name. Finally, the new filtering tool allows you to view the calls from multiple specific institutions at once. + +From Trump 2.0 to wildly expensive US assets to the lurking threat of bond vigilantes, this is what the finance world’s best and brightest see in the year ahead. + +=============================== +Base Cases: America First Again +=============================== + +Lower rates and pro-growth policies should support a modest global expansion with the US largely leading the way. Risks abound — not least the unpredictability of the new American administration — but solid, not exceptional, returns are the base case for most of Wall Street. Call it cautious optimism. + +Bank of America + +BofA economists and strategists forecast "goldilocks" for the global economy in '25 (3.25% GDP growth, 2.5% inflation), another year of monetary easing and big budget deficits, a weaker US dollar (down 2-3% by end-25), a big drop in oil prices (-20%), gold prices hitting $3,000 per ounce. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +We are staying pro-risk. We see the US still standing out versus other developed markets thanks to stronger growth and its ability to better capitalize on mega forces. We up our overweight to US equities and see the AI theme broadening out. + +Global X + +Global X believes economic growth is likely to surprise on the upside in 2025. Struggling sectors like manufacturing, paired with renewed small- and mid-cap corporate investment, could extend the mid-cycle expansion, translating to better market breadth with higher multiples. That said, interest rate volatility, which tends to rise in protectionist periods with considerable tariffs, is a potential risk to that outlook. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +A positive cyclical course has been set, and attractive structural trends are in place. The increased clarity will be reassuring for investors, we believe, supporting investment flows and asset returns. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +We are positive on US risky assets in a world where US exceptionalism gets reinforced, amidst a prolonged business cycle with ongoing easing from central banks and with additional support coming from Fed ending QT in the first quarter. + +Ned Davis Research + +The skies appear mostly clear for the financial markets heading into 2025. The Fed’s easing cycle is ongoing amid disinflation and low recession risks, earnings growth is solid, and the rally is broadening. Against that backdrop, we enter the year bullish on US stocks on an absolute basis and relative to bonds and cash, favor cyclical over defensive sectors, and are focused on crypto, software AI, and durable goods themes. + +Neuberger Berman + +A year of above-trend growth. While the politics may change, industrial policy aimed at influencing domestic production patterns will continue, whether achieved via government spending and investment, tax policy, trade policy, deregulation or other means. If inflation can be contained — and we think it can — central banks can stand aside and allow economies to run a little warm. That is a recipe for above-trend US GDP growth, which could drag some of the world’s other economies with it. + +UBS + +US growth is supported by deregulation and improved business confidence, more than offsetting the impact of selective tariffs on Chinese and key European imports. Trade and geopolitical negotiations add to volatility for European and Chinese markets. The most expansionary US fiscal plans are shelved and inflation falls toward target. US equities rise. Bond yields fall slightly and central banks consistently cut interest rates toward neutral. + +Apollo Global Management + +The outlook for the US economy remains strong with no signs of a major slowdown going into 2025. We continue to see interest rates staying higher for longer on a relative basis, regardless of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing monetary easing campaign. + +BNY + +In 2025, the combination of the Fed’s continued easing, US economic strength and the potential boost from pro-growth policies under the new administration will bring the runway for moderate growth into sight. Lower short-term interest rates will reduce borrowing costs for many consumers and businesses, helping to bolster consumer spending and economic activity. This backdrop should present attractive opportunities across asset classes for investors. + +Capital Economics + +Warnings about a spiral into a global trade war next year are overdone. We expect the world economy to grow by around 3% in 2025, similar to the rate of growth this year. This would be comparatively weak by past standards but would not be a disaster in the circumstances. Notably, it is unlikely to be so weak that “risky” assets are prevented from making further gains. + +Charles Schwab + +International markets are expected to clear the hurdles of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy and slower than average economic growth to support solid overall returns. + +Jefferies + +We see 2025 as remaining broadly positive for risky assets. An environment of economy doing fine and central bank cutting rates will likely be supportive. However, we do not expect the path to be a straight line and see increased divergence across geographies and sectors. + +LGIM + +We believe markets are mispricing a host of risks – and opportunities – regarding the outlook for 2025. The current market consensus is complacent and mistakenly extrapolating the reflationary effects from Trump’s policies during his first administration. Consensus could also be underestimating both the extent of tariffs and the impact for any given tariff level. + +Macquarie + +With fiscal policy likely to turn more accommodative in both China and the US, we expect growth to remain solid over the first half of 2025, as manufacturing finally begins to recover. That should see equities continue to rally into 2025, and commodities supported. + +NatWest + +We are bullish as we enter 2025. Our short-term focus will be on continued moderate economic growth, rising wages and falling global interest rates which should all be good for corporate earnings. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +Northern Trust Asset Management’s base case economic outlook for 2025 is a US soft landing. NTAM expects economic growth to settle slightly below 2024 levels, inflation to ease further toward 2% and the Federal Reserve to proceed gradually cutting rates. + +Principal Asset Management + +We approach the year with optimism for equities, credit, and risk assets. While our risk appetite has diminished from the past several years, we retain a slight equity overweight and see a path to a rewarding 2025. + +Schroders + +Leaving aside political risks, the economic backdrop remains benign. Inflation has moved in the right direction and interest rates are falling in the US and Europe. We expect a soft landing, and our expectation is that growth will reaccelerate as we move through 2025. + +ABN AMRO Investment Solutions + +In 2025, the US is expected to maintain solid economic growth, driven by rising productivity, strong consumer spending, and easing core inflation, despite uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies. + +AXA Investment Managers + +US President-elect Donald Trump’s radical policy agenda has created some financial market uncertainty, in terms of the outlook for investment returns. Nevertheless, we believe the central macroeconomic outlook remains favorable for bonds and equities. Growth, stable inflation and lower interest rates should support markets. + +Bel Air Investment Advisors + +We expect the bull market in global equities will likely continue in 2025, with the US again likely to outperform the rest of the world. US companies generate stronger ROEs and earnings growth across industries and sectors, explaining dominant outperformance of US equities. + +BNP Paribas + +In our central case, US growth settles into a soft landing in early 2025 before idling into 2026 as the impacts of import tariffs and immigration policies outweigh more pro-growth initiatives. + +Carmignac + +We anticipate the US to outperform at the beginning of the year (given the Trump 2.0 effect on consumer confidence and spending, and companies with the highest effective tax rates). However, inflation concerns and a steeper yield curve, down the line, could lead investors to question the truly exceptional US equity valuations. + +Citi + +Excluding the United States, the global economy is projected to grow at a 2.7% pace during the coming year. For the US, we are watching developments closely but are broadly encouraged. We stick to the risk-on stance into year-end with a US exceptionalism flavor, but expect to pare back equity risk in the first quarter. + +Deutsche Bank + +Our base case for 2025 is stronger US growth and inflation and a higher Fed terminal rate than previously expected with the opposite conditions for Europe. This is driven by the assumption of modest US tax cuts, a strong deregulation push, and more supportive financial conditions. + +Evercore ISI + +The potential for exceptionally positive policy and geopolitical outcomes as well as for increases in tension and frictions set the table for a rollercoaster, yet ultimately bullish continuation of the past two years’ “Roaring 20%’s” rally in 2025. + +Franklin Templeton + +Globally, positive fundamentals for growth, inflation and interest rates, as well as the absence of significant imbalances or credit misallocation, offer favorable preconditions for positive returns across most asset classes and regions. + +Invesco + +US assets usually perform well in the year after an election. Hence, given that we expect less inflation, easing central banks and more growth, we think 2025 should be a good year for financial markets. However, we embrace risk cautiously after strong price gains in 2024. + +Lombard Odier + +For 2025, the world will be shaken up amid more adversarial US trade policies. While US tariffs will be inflationary at home, overseas their biggest impact will be to reduce growth, and this could push authorities in China and Europe into more radical policy responses. + +Morgan Stanley + +A global economy with moderate growth, disinflation and monetary easing should encourage investors to look to equities and other risk assets. + +Pictet Asset Management + +Given the importance of the US for global growth and weakness in Europe and China, we expect global growth to remain stable at some 2.8% in 2025, broadly its trend rate – assuming our base case for Trump’s policies. Resilient growth and falling interest rates should help equities outperform bonds next year, with US in the lead. + +Russell Investments + +We expect that the US will achieve a soft-landing in 2025, with the economy growing at a trend-like pace of 2%. Outside the US, we think growth will likely remain under pressure, with trade-policy uncertainty and tariffs weighing on Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. + +State Street + +State Street Global Advisors expects rate cuts and macroeconomic resilience to continue in 2025, and its long-standing forecast of a US soft landing to materialize. While there are a range of uncertainties to contend with, investors may want to consider above target allocations to equities and should remain thoughtful about portfolio construction. + +Tallbacken Capital + +The economy remains in the midst of a key structural shift to a higher nominal GDP environment, where real and nominal rates will find a higher floor. Against this backdrop, the dollar and US centric risk assets will be supported, longer dated Treasuries less so. However, next year also comes with some sense of a US political risk premium. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +We are in an unconventional economic cycle phase, characterized by a positive outlook alongside anomalies like market concentration and excessive debt levels. While global macro liquidity supports riskier assets, growing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions highlight the need for greater diversification. + +BCA Research + +We now see the classic soft-landing outcome that investors have been betting on (higher stock prices and lower bond yields) as very unlikely to occur. At the same time, Trump’s election does increase the odds of a bullish outcome for stocks in 2025, albeit with higher government bond yields. + +Capital Group + +The world’s major economies look to be headed down divergent paths in 2025, and America’s role as the chief driver of global growth figures could expand even further. The Fed’s rate cutting cycle could be a powerful tailwind for investors in what is shaping up to be a healthy environment for both stock and bond markets. + +Columbia Threadneedle + +For equities to continue their exceptional performance we would need geopolitical risks to stabilize; growth, but not too much; steady but low inflation so rates can come down … a lot has to go right. So although we expect gains, we wouldn’t expect a continuation of the 20%-25% growth in the US stock market. + +Fidelity + +We are mid- to late-cycle, and not end-of-cycle, creating a volatile environment that should generally be good for risk assets but puts a premium on getting investment choices right. Valuations of a number of past winners are elevated, but the mood in general is positive. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +We expect rate cuts to progress in 2025 across most developed and emerging markets with divergence in their pace and timing. We remain optimistic that major economies can achieve sustained economic growth as interest rates ease, although the range of potential macroeconomic outcomes has widened following the US elections. + +Janus Henderson + +The combination of rate cuts and other potential accommodative policy in the US and stimulus in China should lend support to the global economy. Still, there are forces at play that make it imperative to apply caution when adding risk. Broadly speaking, markets have been quick to price in the cycle’s extension, leaving valuations vulnerable to downgrades if risks increase. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +In 2025, the balance between tailwinds (continued global economic expansion, falling interest rates, healthy earnings growth) and headwinds (elevated valuations, especially in US large-cap stocks, tight spreads in investment-grade and high-yield bonds, increased macroeconomic volatility and ongoing geopolitical risks) suggest that portfolio returns are likely to outpace cash but also revert to trend-like rates. We suggest that investors consider maintaining balanced positioning between offense and defense, stocks and bonds, and income and capital appreciation. + +LPL Financial + +We remain cautiously optimistic. Cautious because we know that no market environment is ever permanent, and that change is always potentially around the corner. Optimistic because we recognize constructive long-term technology trends are in place. Plus, potential tax policy and deregulation efforts in 2025 could provide some semblance of a tailwind — particularly from an economic perspective. While growth asset returns are not expected to be as robust as 2024, 2025’s investment environment should prove to be favorable for investors. + +Nuveen + +The economy is experiencing a different kind of landing that defies easy categorization. It’s one in which inflation and monetary policy rates settle but stay structurally higher than they were pre-Covid. And while this landing may lack a label, it’s replete with opportunity for investors willing to adjust their portfolio itineraries. + +Pimco + +The factors that supported relative US economic strength are diminishing. That suggests some recoupling with the rest of the world and further progress on curbing inflation. + +Robeco + +In our view, 2025 will be another year of a treacherous macro climate with many idiosyncratic cross winds. By occasionally signaling some economic weakness, the data will blur broader economic resilience. Our stance remains: ceci n’est pas un landing. + +Societe Generale + +In 2025, we believe the world we will live in will increasingly resemble a story with four new chapters: new US policy, China’s reflation plans, the unwinding of the yen carry trade and an end to the German debt-brake rule. Three of these are "risk-on." + +T. Rowe Price + +There is strong potential for a slowdown in global growth in early 2025. But central banks are poised to respond with rapid rate cuts, paving the way for a fast recovery. We expect a shift from services to manufacturing — the result of a global push towards renewable energy and the rise of AI. These factors are, in part, fueling infrastructure spending. + +Truist Wealth + +We stay anchored and aligned with the primary market uptrend as opportunities remain. Yet investors will need to navigate a delicate landscape. We balance optimism about the ongoing economic expansion and the likelihood of further stock market gains with a keen awareness of potential disruptions. + +Allspring Global Investments + +US growth will likely stabilize in 2025 as the effects of lower interest rates make their way through the economy. Lower mortgage rates and robust real earnings should underpin a growth rate of 2–3%. Additional fiscal stimulus from a Republican sweep will likely boost economic growth further. Economic weakness internationally probably won’t meaningfully affect the US. + +Barclays Private Bank + +Some of the returns initially expected to materialize in 2025 may have already occurred. In this context, and with a global economy that is unlikely to generate much better gross domestic product growth, a period of lower returns probably lies ahead. We recommend looking beyond index-driven rallies to focus on quality companies that can deliver growth as the economy moderates and trade at reasonable valuations. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +Developed market central banks are cutting policy rates. This should boost both equities – as shorter-term financing costs fall – and fixed income, as the policy rate component of bond yields declines. Of course, anticipating the reaction of markets is not as simple as that because the other, arguably more important, factor driving asset prices is economic growth. Investors should initially be circumspect in anticipating positive equity returns during a rate-cutting cycle given that four out of the last five such cycles in the US coincided with a recession. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +If the threatened trade war does not escalate further, the more positive derivatives from tax cuts, a friendlier regulatory environment, and improved pro-business attitudes should create a positive environment for risk asset performance as the year evolves and as we look further ahead to 2026. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +Policy forecasts at this stage are still highly speculative, but they don’t seem to spell disaster for the economy or markets in the short run. The economy remains on stable footing as we enter the new year, with a gradual return to normal across many fronts. However, investors should remain vigilant, considering the fragility of the economic expansion that underpins a bullish fervor in markets. + +UniCredit + +Our outlook for 2025 is marked by cautious optimism: a macro environment characterized by lower interest rates and positive economic growth will support risk appetite, as the tightening cycle has replenished central banks’ toolboxes, creating room for bold action if needed. This is good news for equity and bond returns in 2025, but it will not necessarily translate into an all-clear for global markets. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +We think the global economic recovery will be strongest in the US, because of structural advantages — such as stronger fiscal stimulus, a vibrant technology sector, and less dependence on exports — compared with emerging markets and other developed markets. An economic rebound, reinforced by lower short-term interest rates, should promote broader earnings growth and higher equity prices through year-end 2025. + +DWS + +We expect 2025 to be a good year for investors overall, as inflation eases, growth returns to normal and central bank interest rate cuts help many asset classes. However, stock valuations leave little room for negative surprises and, after the US presidential election, we should expect the year to be anything but predictable. + +Goldman Sachs + +Despite heightened tension between our baseline macro forecasts and high valuations and markets that have moved to reflect the better US growth picture, we still forecast modest positive returns across the key asset classes. The challenge is that tail risks are greater than before, and the new administration’s policy agenda creates a wider distribution of potential outcomes. + +HSBC Asset Management + +Our baseline scenario assumes moderate global growth with lingering inflation concerns translating to subdued rate cuts from central banks. This would coincide with modest trade policy changes and geopolitical disruption. Markets might maintain stability, with steady growth across emerging and developed markets. + +TD Securities + +As we look into 2025, we see a world of heightened uncertainty and greater regional divergence. + +Vanguard + +Positive supply-side drivers of growth may continue in 2025, emerging policy risks such as the implementation of trade tariffs and stricter immigration policies may offset gains. Under such a scenario, US real GDP growth would cool from its present rate of around 3% to closer to 2%. + +Wells Fargo + +Increased probability of global recession with potential tariffs and trade war becoming more likely. The most concerning effect of tariffs is on growth, not necessarily inflation. + +=========================== +Growth: US Versus the World +=========================== + +The so-called Red Sweep of US government is expected to kick off a pro-business, regulation-light era that gives American activity a boost. Confidence in a European revival is low, while China is seen struggling to manage an ongoing deceleration. + +Apollo Global Management + +We believe US GDP growth will end 2024 at 2.8%. We see real GDP growth at 2.3% in 2025, mostly in line with consensus estimates as of this writing. + +Bank of America + +BofA forecasts "soft landing" in both the US (2.5% GDP growth) and China (4.5%), modest acceleration in Europe and Japan (GDP growth 1-1.5%); global inflation rates are forecast to fall, though US core CPI expected to rise above 3%. + +Capital Economics + +We expect GDP in the euro area to expand by 0.8% in 2025 – a forecast that put us right at the bottom end of the consensus only a few months ago but no longer looks so outlandish. Growth in the UK is likely to pick up, albeit from a relatively low base. + +Charles Schwab + +Our overall outlook for global GDP growth in 2025 is likely to be similar to 2024 at around 3%. While economic growth in the world's two largest countries, the US and China, is expected to slow next year—nearly everywhere else growth is expected to improve. Not one of the top 45 economies in the world are expected to be in recession + +Deutsche Bank + +For Europe, the Trump victory appears overwhelmingly negative at face value, but it could shake the continent into more positive policy action over the medium term. For 2025, it's too early for the positive scenario to be considered and the economic performance gap to the US will likely widen. In light of this, our economists have downgraded their growth forecast (0.8% in 2025) while lowering their inflation and ECB terminal rate forecast (to 1.5% by year-end 2025). + +Deutsche Bank + +For the UK, domestic and external headwinds are picking up heading into 2025. As such, our growth forecasts have edged lower to 1.3% for 2025 with the BOE now only cutting four times as inflation proves sticky. + +DWS + +We do not expect any pick-up in global economic growth, with 3.1% GDP growth being our expectation this year and in 2025 and 2026. + +Lombard Odier + +Japan is on a different trajectory from other major economies. Lombard Odier sees growth expanding to around 1.4%, helped by weaker fiscal discipline from the minority government, more consumer spending, improving business sentiment and corporate reforms starting to bear fruit. + +NatWest + +We predict four more ECB cuts in the first half, bringing the policy rate down to what we think is a terminal 2%. Inflation expectations also point to around 2%, with the ECB’s expectations now just above 2%. While there are good reasons to expect a re-acceleration in European output growth in the coming quarters, recent surveys have surprised with less impressive data, dampening our view of a rebound in 2025. + +ABN AMRO Investment Solutions + +In Europe, short-term growth may stagnate due to weak confidence and competitiveness, but a rebound is expected in the latter half of the year, supported by ECB interest rate cuts and potential political stability. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +The global economy is expected to soften in 2025. The US economy will moderate due to cooling domestic demand and labour market conditions. Disinflation may persist, but inflation risks loom and the Fed may need to adapt to a potential shift in US policy. Europe is positioned for a modest recovery, with strategic investments in focus. Emerging markets are likely to continue to command a growth premium over developed ones, and Asia remains a major driver of growth. + +Barclays Private Bank + +The euro zone's combination of low inflation, lower rates and a low base, could drive a significant improvement in GDP growth – albeit absolute expansion is likely to remain subdued – of around 0.7% in 2025, in our base-case scenario. The European "renaissance" could be further strengthened by the bloc’s outsized exposure to China if that country’s stimulus plans bear fruit and reignite its economy. + +BNP Paribas + +China is likely to make the fiscal and monetary moves required to meet the authorities’ minimum acceptable 4.5% GDP growth rate in the face of US tariffs. + +BNY + +We expect to see the economy slow modestly before a renewal of activity ensues as the economy benefits from a further moderation of inflation and lower interest rates. We expect US growth for 2025 to range from 1.5% to 2.5%, in line with trend growth, marking the fastest growth rate among developed economies. + +Capital Economics + +We now expect lower US GDP growth and higher inflation and interest rates next year as a result of Trump’s policies. However, with private sector balance sheets still strong, a soft landing remains the most likely scenario. + +Deutsche Bank + +Our US economists believe the most likely scenario is that modest tax cuts, a strong deregulation push, and more supportive financial conditions will produce faster US growth in 2025, which they now see at 2.5% versus 2.2% previously. + +Deutsche Bank + +For China, our economists believe momentum has improved thanks to the recent expansionary macroeconomic policies. They expect 4.8% GDP growth in 2025. They anticipate that significant fiscal stimulus will be announced in March 2025 alongside the annual budget. However, the sustainability of the recovery is dependent on the property sector's performance and the impact of US-China trade tensions. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +We expect global economic growth to come in at around 3.2% this year, a similar rate of expansion as seen last year in 2024. Several low-income developing countries, have seen sizable downward revisions to their growth outlooks, while other (developed market) economies, namely the US, have seen their economic growth outlooks expanded. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +We continue to believe that the China economy will struggle to get even close to the government’s aspirational target of 5% real GDP growth and would forecast 4.1% as a more likely result over the coming 12 months as the hit from tariffs offsets (at least partially) the boost from stimulus. + +Goldman Sachs + +Our European economists have downgraded their GDP forecasts across the region in anticipation of higher trade uncertainty, the ongoing pressures from China competition in key industries, and other spillovers. The ECB again is the primary and perhaps only institution that will need to respond, and a deeper rate cut path is the most likely outcome. + +Ned Davis Research + +Our inflation forecast (2.75%-3.25%), GDP expectations (2.0%-2.5%, with a slower second half), Fed policy uncertainty, EPS projection (8.4%), 10-year yield outlook (4.625% fair value), potential for tariffs and deportations, and the presidential cycle suggest the risks increase in the second half. + +Pictet Asset Management + +We are more cautious on the euro zone. Although economic growth appears to be stabilising, it is still lacklustre and could be significantly impacted by Trump’s tariffs (particularly in manufacturing-heavy Germany). The region is also less focused on tech and related industries than the US, so may lag as the AI revolution continues. Moreover, political uncertainty in both France and Germany means it is unlikely that the region would, in the near term, be able to produce a coherent and credible growth strategy. + +Pictet Asset Management + +In Japan, we expect a domestic consumption-led recovery in economic growth through next year and continued progress on corporate governance reforms, offering some support to the country’s financial markets. + +Principal Asset Management + +US economic growth is set to remain above trend, at least in the first half of 2025. Prospects for deregulation under the new administration provide an important boost to business sentiment, reinforcing the constructive backdrop for the jobs market. + +Principal Asset Management + +China’s growth is set to underperform once again. The bleak outlook remains rooted in a vicious cycle of deflationary risks, high unemployment, consumer caution and property market weakness. High hopes for a policy stimulus bazooka have faded, but fiscal expansion should at least put a floor under economic weakness. + +Robeco + +In the US, procyclical monetary policy is joining procyclical expansionary fiscal policy, a powerful policy mix underpinning US exceptionalism. We also believe Trump’s corporate tax cuts will add jobs and growth. + +T. Rowe Price + +US exceptionalism has not run out of steam. The US economy is set for another year of growth, bolstered by investments in AI. Fiscal policies and coordinated monetary easing support this outlook. Job creation will likely slow as companies have front-loaded hiring, but unemployment is expected to remain low. Improving productivity should also provide another boost to growth. + +TD Securities + +Europe faces perhaps some of the biggest challenges in 2025, with geopolitics almost certain to have a negative impact on growth. Europe will be hit by US tariffs and China dumping its goods in response to US tariffs. The ECB will cut below neutral to 2% by June, while stickier inflation will see the UK cut more cautiously, pausing at 3.5% from August. + +Truist Wealth + +We anticipate steady growth on shifting ground for the US economy, which should remain the shining country on the global stage. The recovery will turn five early in 2025, and the evidence suggests we are in a mid-cycle transition with expected growth near 2.5%. + +UBS + +In Europe growth is likely to be uneven and subdued, but it should improve as wage growth remains strong while interest rates fall. Spain, the UK, and Switzerland should outperform with growth rates above 1%, compared to more modest growth of around 1% in Germany, France and Italy. + +Vanguard + +While inflation is now close to target in the euro area, that has come at the price of stagnation in 2023 and 2024, with muted external demand, weak productivity, and the lingering effects of the energy crisis holding activity back. Growth is expected to remain below trend next year, as a slowdown in global trade represents a key risk. Expect the ECB to cut rates below neutral, to 1.75%, by the end of 2025. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +The global economic outlook is benign as monetary policymakers have curbed high inflation without triggering a recession. Abating price pressures will allow major central banks to cut rates further but the easing cycle will end well before policy rates reach pre-pandemic lows. + +Apollo Global Management + +The US economy has charted its own path in the post-pandemic world, and it is diverging from both its own historical performance in a context of higher rates as well as its historical correlation to other developed economies, especially Europe and Japan. We see this trend continuing in 2025. + +AXA Investment Managers + +For now, we don’t expect a recession in 2025 which should help deliver positive equity returns, while credit markets should provide attractive income opportunities. + +BNP Paribas + +We cut our 2025 GDP growth outlook for the euro zone and see near-term risks skewed to the downside as geopolitics and local political uncertainty weigh. However, US policies could prompt a bolder European policy response and thus a brighter medium-term outlook. + +BNY + +In Europe, we believe the impacts of falling interest rates and low and stable inflation on consumer spending will help deliver modest growth in 2025. However, the region’s high reliance on imported energy and the potential for supply disruptions amid rising geopolitical tensions remain a risk. + +BNY + +We anticipate that China’s economic growth will continue to slow, as headwinds, including real estate, demographics and geopolitical uncertainty, persist. + +Capital Economics + +Economic growth will slow in many emerging markets, but in most cases the slowdown will be gradual. Even if the pace of its expansion is slowing, India will once again be the world’s fastest growing major economy. + +Charles Schwab + +Economic and earnings downturns in Europe in 2023-24 were followed by economic stimulus in the form of interest rate cuts, so a strong rebound in growth might be expected for 2025. But the acceleration is likely to be mild with economic and earnings growth improving yet remaining below average. + +Comerica + +“Animal spirits” will likely boost consumer spending and job openings in the first half of 2025 as affluent consumers and businesses act on their good vibes. Comerica’s forecast accordingly raises the outlook for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +Our constructive view on US economic growth prospects for the year ahead are also founded on our expectation that productivity growth should remain significantly stronger than in other developed economies. + +Goldman Sachs + +Our baseline forecast remains essentially benign for the US: solid growth, cooling inflation and further non-recessionary rate cuts, alongside a range of policies that could be friendly to corporate earnings. While the US is a clear outperformer, non-US economies still see stable growth, falling inflation and monetary easing in our central scenario. + +Goldman Sachs + +Given the otherwise soggy growth outlook in Europe, the UK’s relative outperformance is likely to stand out and benefit a procyclical currency like the pound and other UK assets on a relative basis. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +The US economy remains resilient heading into 2025. We lean toward a soft landing as our base-case scenario against a backdrop of late-cycle opportunities and lingering tail risks. + +HSBC Asset Management + +In advanced economies, we expect growth to converge. While the US economy shows some signs of cooling, the period of US exceptionalism that has characterized the post-pandemic economy may begin to fade. Europe is on a recovery path, but growth remains subdued. In contrast, Asia and frontier economies are projected to experience premium growth rates, with China benefiting from policy support and India maintaining its status as the fastest-growing large economy + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +In 2025, investors may be disappointed by the scale of Chinese fiscal policy stimulus and hence overall economic growth. + +LGIM + +We are cautious on the UK. The recent tax-raising budget appears to have dented business confidence and pushed up interest rates, which could offset any growth boost from increased government spending. If the UK gets caught in a global trade war, the Bank of England might need to deliver a faster pace of easing than markets currently anticipate. + +Lombard Odier + +The outlook for emerging markets has dimmed amid a more negative outlook for exports and growth, a stronger US dollar and weaker EM currencies. Yet economic fundamentals across EM including external balances have improved, helping limit stresses. + +Morgan Stanley + +Restrictions on immigration, which may make labor market conditions less favorable, are also expected to have a negative impact in the latter half of 2025. + +Nuveen + +Outside of the US, we are increasingly cautious toward both developed and emerging markets based on relative economic growth prospects and the likelihood of a stronger dollar. One exception is Japan, given the country’s emergence from deflation and solid real wage growth. + +Robeco + +The peak misery from the global tightening cycle is behind us, especially in Europe. We find that after peak misery a cyclical rebound in European consumption gets underway which is likely to accelerate in 2025. + +Robeco + +A mix of Chinese monetary and fiscal stimulus only pushes growth back to its (declining) trend growth path, removing downside risks yet failing to eliminate disinflationary pressures as output gaps remain negative. + +Societe Generale + +With permanently (very) high fiscal deficits, the growth outlook overall was always going to be robust regardless of who had won the US election. We can now expect an upsurge in the use of industrial policies that are a key part of the global trade war. That's likely to become an increasing hurdle to other regions. We act accordingly in our allocation. + +Tallbacken Capital + +Structural forces reinforce the ongoing shift to higher nominal GDP. Re-localization of supply chains, the energy transition, and AI will all continue to reinforce fixed asset growth and help reinforce economic growth. + +Vanguard + +We maintain our weaker-than-consensus secular view on Chinese growth. Growth should pick up in the coming quarters as financing conditions ease and fiscal stimulus measures kick in. But more decisive and aggressive measures are needed to overcome intensifying external headwinds, thus we expect additional monetary and fiscal loosening in 2025. + +BCA Research + +We expect Beijing to take continued incremental steps to support the Chinese economy and to avoid an economic collapse, but these measures are not likely to lead to a significant growth impulse for the global economy. + +BCA Research + +The European growth outlook was already weakening leading up to the US election, and it is likely to get worse under Trump, whenever he imposes tariffs. Trump’s election could ironically trigger reform in Europe, but Europe’s existing growth momentum alongside trade action next year and China’s response to it are likely to be the dominant cyclical drivers of the European economy. + +BNP Paribas + +Higher US import tariffs are likely to be particularly negative for growth in open EM economies. + +Capital Economics + +We expect a pick-up in growth in China over the first half of next year as fiscal and monetary support feeds through. But the economy is likely to slow over the second half when structural constraints reassert themselves. + +Charles Schwab + +A continued slow recovery from recession in 2023 combined with a slight drag from tighter fiscal policy is likely to result in better, but still below average growth in the UK. + +Citi + +The combination of the adverse demand effects from US tariffs and increased uncertainty looks to skew growth a bit lower. But this should also provide scope for foreign central banks to be somewhat more stimulative than otherwise. + +DWS + +We do not expect a recession in any of the major economies, but rather steady, moderate growth. This is a very good environment for many asset classes. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +If they are implemented, more expansive, universal US tariffs may act as a drag on European economic growth, leading to faster and deeper rate cuts by the ECB if incoming data is worse than expected. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +We continue to see better opportunities in the US than in Europe, due to relative levels of current growth, innovation and policy support. Despite increased trade uncertainty after the US elections, we expect Asian growth to stay resilient in 2025. + +Invesco + +The combination of falling inflation, central bank easing, and an increase in money supply suggests that the risks of an economic accident are diminishing. In the absence of significant shocks, we anticipate that recession will not be a concern in 2025, with economies more likely to be in recovery mode. + +Invesco + +Global GDP growth will recover towards trend, global inflation will fall towards central bank targets, and major western central banks will continue cutting rates towards “neutral.” + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +Japan is moving out of a long period of deflation, stagnant nominal growth and negative rates. In the year ahead, reflation should support consumer spending and domestic earnings more broadly. Yen stability, which is crucial for internationally exposed companies and foreign investors, is expected to improve. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +In past rate-cutting cycles, falling rates have supported emerging market assets through higher growth, increased capital flows and weaker currencies that boost exports. But we take a more cautious view. We expect developed market equities to outperform their EM counterparts in 2025, as they have for eight of the past 10 years. EM economies face a host of challenges. Most importantly, China confronts a crisis of consumer confidence (only slightly eased by the government’s recently announced stimulus package). + +LPL Financial + +The economy will likely downshift throughout 2025 as consumer spending begins to moderate, though pent-up demand for business capital expenditures, favorable tax policy, and likely deregulation could help offset some of the softening. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +Japan’s economic growth in 2024 was unspectacular, but wage gains that may support consumer spending are spreading across the economy and those gains may continue into 2025. + +TD Securities + +A Trump presidency means higher US inflation and weaker global growth. We expect more bark than bite for the most part, so while we work in higher inflation from tariffs and a (limited) labour shock from migration policies in the US, we factor in only mildly weaker growth in key trading partners. + +UBS + +China’s growth is likely to slow, with reactive fiscal stimulus measures unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the impact of tariffs and structural challenges. India is expected to continue to deliver more robust growth. + +Allspring Global Investments + +We anticipate international growth will trend lower until mid-2025 as a number of countries, especially in Europe, continue struggling due to tighter fiscal policy and not-loose-enough monetary policy. Potential Trump administration–induced tariffs could hit growth in China and Europe over-proportionately. + +Barclays Private Bank + +Whether it’s tax cuts, deregulation or new tariffs being imposed, they could all significantly alter the US growth trajectory. It’s important to remember that any impact may not be felt in 2025, though. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +Many leaders across developed economies are constrained – by inflation, low political support and, outside the US, lack of growth. We expect a sharp focus on national economic and security priorities, potentially at the expense of others. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +While we anticipate more stimulus from Beijing, it does not look likely there will be a major change in economic policy; Beijing will probably continue to focus on investment in new, developing industries rather than nurturing household consumption or bailing out property developers. We question whether these privileged sectors will be able to generate growth for the whole economy at the rate the authorities would like. + +BNY + +We believe the BOJ will continue its efforts to slow inflation while growth improves next year. We expect a weaker yen to support greater exports and an increase in wages to drive consumer spending. However, structural headwinds such as labor shortages and aging demographics will persist and limit the country’s growth potential. + +Carmignac + +One should not discard the potential of Chinese authorities to bring forward more easing, nor the capacity of European authorities to react at times of existential crisis. As such, contrarian plays may take over as local policy makers are forced to react. + +Charles Schwab + +While the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates again in 2025, should the outlook for inflation remain above 2% supported by wage increases, the increase is unlikely to create a measurable drag on Japan's economy. + +Evercore ISI + +Yield stabilization coupled with monetary and fiscal stimulus could provide support to a beleaguered China. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +We believe 2025 will be the year of the global easing cycle. Falling policy rates will support trend-like economic growth in the US and the euro zone, but not boost demand so much that it reignites inflation. In China, policymakers seem set on ensuring that growth stabilizes, especially in response to the increased likelihood of higher US tariff rates. + +Morgan Stanley + +Major policy changes are often announced quickly and achieved more slowly, so the current benign macroeconomic conditions may persist well into 2025 without significant disruption. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +In Europe, the economic picture straddles growth and contraction. A resilient labor force and target-level inflation is coupled with manufacturing sector contraction and risks of further geopolitical tensions and trade barriers. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +In Asia, while the overall optics are for favorable growth, the outlook for China remains a central concern, with economic growth falling short of the government’s 5% target. A slowing economy is deepening a deflationary loop. + +Columbia Threadneedle + +China disappointed in 2024 and although we are now seeing that stimulus come through, will it be sufficient to drive sustainable higher economic growth? Coupled with challenges around its demographics and uncertainties over tariffs and global trade, there is some risk there. + +Fidelity + +Growth, inflation and interest rates across the world’s biggest economies are liable to head in very different directions in the months ahead and there is far more doubt about those paths. + +Janus Henderson + +In the US, the benefits of rate cuts and a resilient economy are countered by an uneven labor market, the threat of higher long-term rates, and the policy uncertainty that comes with a new administration. Meanwhile, major economies outside the US struggle to find their footing with a mix of hot and cold data across Europe and Asia. + +Neuberger Berman + +Countries and governments that deliver moderate inflation and broader participation in positive real wage growth and positive real revenue growth will increasingly come to define success, visible in data points such as higher consumer confidence, political approval ratings and GDP growth rates. While it remains to be seen whether specific policy mixes can achieve this, we see evidence that the incoming US administration at least recognizes the objective, and active industrial policy is evidence of growing recognition elsewhere. + +================================ +Inflation: Contained, Not Killed +================================ + +Trump’s potential barriers to trade and aggressive approach to immigration are seen as fresh fuel for inflation, with the Federal Reserve struggling to bring price growth down to target. Still, inflation is generally seen as contained and range-bound both in the US and abroad, compared to recent years. + +Citi + +With respect to Trump policies, the base case of our global team is tariffs, extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, a sharp curb in immigration inflows, a broad deregulation of Biden-era requirements, and a potential boost to animal spirits. They think this cocktail will bring moderately higher inflation in the US, while the effects on US growth may net out at around zero. + +Deutsche Bank + +For Europe, the Trump victory appears overwhelmingly negative at face value, but it could shake the continent into more positive policy action over the medium term. For 2025, it's too early for the positive scenario to be considered and the economic performance gap to the US will likely widen. In light of this, our economists have downgraded their growth forecast (0.8% in 2025) while lowering their inflation and ECB terminal rate forecast (to 1.5% by year-end 2025). + +Deutsche Bank + +The US policy mix will stall progress on inflation, with core PCE expected to remain at or above 2.5% over the next two years, leading the Fed to halt their rate cuts. We now see the fed funds rate at 4.375% by year-end 2025. + +TD Securities + +In the US, tariffs and immigration policies will boost inflation by nearly 1 percentage point by early 2026, eventually weighing on growth and have an important impact on monetary policy. As the labour market softens and wage growth slows, we expect aggregate income growth to cool; we expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.4% in 2025. + +Vanguard + +Policy risks may increase inflationary pressures. Therefore, we anticipate that core inflation will remain above 2.5% for most of 2025. + +Apollo Global Management + +We believe it will take longer than expected for the Fed to travel the last mile toward its inflation goal. We expect the Consumer Price Index and Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to come in at 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively, in 2025. + +HSBC Asset Management + +Concerns about inflation are likely to linger and we do not foresee a return to the low inflation environment of the 2010s. Instead, we anticipate inflation settling in the 2-3% range for most major economies, with interest rate cutting cycles expected to be shallow in both the US and Europe. + +Ned Davis Research + +Our inflation forecast (2.75%-3.25%), GDP expectations (2.0%-2.5%, with a slower second half), Fed policy uncertainty, EPS projection (8.4%), 10-year yield outlook (4.625% fair value), potential for tariffs and deportations, and the presidential cycle suggest the risks increase in the second half. + +Pimco + +Developed markets (DM) appear on track to return to target inflation levels in 2025, driven by normalizing consumer demand and increased competition for limited job openings. + +Tallbacken Capital + +Housing and employment will keep the Fed from reaching its inflation target. Both have been tight for some time, and significant solutions to both increasing the supply in both of these markets will not be close at hand. + +Allspring Global Investments + +US inflation will likely progress very slowly toward the Fed's 2% target rate as the US economy stabilizes, but it’s unlikely to be a straight line to the target. + +Barclays Private Bank + +Any tariffs-related inflation shock should be short-lived. Similarly, just as how companies and consumers adjusted after the "trade war" in Trump’s first administration, we would expect the US economy to “move on” within a few quarters, following the announcement of new tariffs. + +Bel Air Investment Advisors + +While the Federal Reserve has successfully brought inflation meaningfully lower since the June 2022 peak, it is not clear we will enter a period of low, below-target rate of inflation. We believe a combination of tariffs, tighter immigration, and onshoring may result in a higher inflation regime going forward. + +NatWest + +Heading into 2025, we are less optimistic the cooling US inflation trend will continue. However, with a Trump victory we reasonably expect upside risks to core goods prices (tariffs), and our forecast for PCE inflation for the end of 2025 (year on year) has grown from 2.4% to 3.2%. + +Nuveen + +Though we believe there is further disinflation in the pipeline from housing and other core services, overall inflation is likely to remain above the Fed’s target. Rates are unlikely to fall as much as many expect, and risk assets are likely to be supported. + +Pictet Asset Management + +Support for risk assets is likely to come from further monetary easing, as central banks respond to improvements in inflation. It will continue to drift lower, although developed market central banks are unlikely to hit their 2% targets during the year. + +UniCredit + +Trump 2.0 will probably be a less inflationary presidency than many fear. After making some symbolic decisions related to targeted tariffs, immigration and taxes in the first months of his presidency, to follow through on campaign promises, Trump is likely to try and shift attention away from economic promises and towards identity issues. + +Bel Air Investment Advisors + +The Trump administration has vowed to impose additional tariffs on US trading partners, curtail legal immigration, and accelerate the deportation of illegal immigrants. While these policies could be inflationary domestically, these measures will likely be offset by liberal fossil fuel policies and significant deregulation across various industries and sectors, especially in the energy and financial sectors. + +BNP Paribas + +We expect the market to shift to price in higher US inflation and fewer rate cuts than it currently does. + +Apollo Global Management + +If implemented, Trump's key policy objectives — lower taxes, higher tariffs, and reduced immigration — could increase rates, boost asset prices, drive inflation, and strengthen the dollar. + + + +=============================== +Monetary Policy: Fewer US Cuts +=============================== + +Trump’s potentially inflationary policies may limit the Fed’s room for maneuver, leading to fewer rate cuts than anticipated and a higher-than-expected terminal rate. The Bank of England faces similar heacaches. Europe is expected to lean dovish with mutliple cuts. Japan is the only major bank raising rates. + +Apollo Global Management + +We believe the Fed will continue to lower the fed funds rate beyond its current range of 4.5% to 4.75%, but at a slower pace than the market expects. As of this writing, the market is pricing in four 25-basis-point cuts in 2025. We think we will get fewer cuts than that. We see a fed funds rate of 4% by year-end 2025. + +AXA Investment Managers + +We expect a pause in Fed cuts at 4.25% in March but resuming in the second half of 2026 to 3.5% as growth slows. We expect the ECB to take an accommodative stance, cutting its deposit rate to 1.5% by the end of 2025, possibly sooner. UK rates will be cut gradually. We look for a 25-basis point cut each quarter. The BOJ will likely hike twice more by end-2025 to 0.75%, but then be forced to halt policy normalisation through 2026, as both growth and inflation ease. + +Bank of America + +BofA forecasts 124 rate cuts by central banks taking the global policy rate from 5% to 4%; the Fed predicted to cut rates two more times in the first half and then end its easing cycle in June; fiscal policies set to ease (German deficit to 3% GDP) or stay accommodative (US deficit 6-7% of GDP). + +BNY + +In the US, our outlook calls for modest growth and a non-linear path of disinflation. We believe that the Fed’s path of easing may be measured in 2025, with a total of two rate cuts. We anticipate one 0.25% cut in the first half of the year and one 0.25% cut in the second. + +Capital Economics + +A rise in inflation next year means that the Fed is likely to be more cautious about removing policy restrictiveness more gradually than would otherwise have been the case. We now think the Fed funds rate will end next year at 3.5% to 3.75%. + +Capital Economics + +We have pushed up our profile for UK interest rates after October’s Budget and now think the Bank rate will end next year at 3.75%, before dropping to a cyclical low of 3.5% in early 2026. + +Capital Economics + +The real policy outlier will be the BOJ, which is likely to be the only major advanced economy central bank to raise interest rates next year. We expect its policy rate to be increased to 1% by the end of 2025. + +Capital Economics + +With growth extremely weak and labour market conditions cooling, we think that policymakers in the euro zone will cut interest rates more aggressively than their peers in other major economies. We forecast that the ECB will lower its key policy rate to around 1.5% by the end of 2025. One consequence is that the euro is likely to weaken further: we think it will hit parity against the US dollar next year. + +Deutsche Bank + +For Europe, the Trump victory appears overwhelmingly negative at face value, but it could shake the continent into more positive policy action over the medium term. For 2025, it's too early for the positive scenario to be considered and the economic performance gap to the US will likely widen. In light of this, our economists have downgraded their growth forecast (0.8% in 2025) while lowering their inflation and ECB terminal rate forecast (to 1.5% by year-end 2025). + +Deutsche Bank + +For the UK, domestic and external headwinds are picking up heading into 2025. As such, our growth forecasts have edged lower to 1.3% for 2025 with the BOE now only cutting four times as inflation proves sticky. + +Deutsche Bank + +The US policy mix will stall progress on inflation, with core PCE expected to remain at or above 2.5% over the next two years, leading the Fed to halt their rate cuts. We now see the fed funds rate at 4.375% by year-end 2025. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +We believe that the ECB (and to a lesser extent the BOE) should move much more quickly than the Fed in the rate easing process, bringing the ECB’s deposit rate to 2% by the middle of this year (2025). Such a rate differential outlook should help to underpin generic dollar strength in year ahead relative to both European currencies. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +We now expect the ECB to cut policy rates by 25 basis points at every meeting until June. More importantly, we expect to see further ECB easing during the second half, when the euro area neutral rate is likely to be viewed as being lower than the ECB's 2-2.5% estimate. This being the case, global markets should be braced for the ECB’s deposit rate to fall toward 1.5% territory during the latter half of the year. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +We believe that the UK government’s budget last October will create a solid headwind against BOE easing aspirations. We believe that the Bank will now follow a slower pace of monetary easing – likely structured around quarterly (25 basis point) cuts until May (2025), and then sequentially thereafter until September 2025, which should result in Bank Rate finding a floor close to 3.5% territory. + +Invesco + +We expect the Fed policy rate will be around 3.5% at the end of 2025 (versus the current 4.75%), with a similar reduction expected from the BOE but slightly less from the ECB. The BOJ is the obvious exception, and we expect 50 basis points of rate rises by the end of 2025. + +Macquarie + +We expect the ECB will continue easing rates to reduce the degree of restriction in its policy settings, with the deposit facility rate reaching a more neutral level of 2% by end-2025. For German 10-year yields, we do not expect significant changes over 2025 as a whole. + +NatWest + +We predict four more ECB cuts in the first half, bringing the policy rate down to what we think is a terminal 2%. Inflation expectations also point to around 2%, with the ECB’s expectations now just above 2%. While there are good reasons to expect a re-acceleration in European output growth in the coming quarters, recent surveys have surprised with less impressive data, dampening our view of a rebound in 2025. + +TD Securities + +The path for global rates markets will hinge on the evolution of longer-term Fed pricing. We see a six-month pause after the 25 basis point cut in December. Only in the second half of 2025 – once the growth impact of tariffs and immigration policy starts to bite – does the FOMC resume its rate cut path, taking the fed funds rate to its neutral rate of 3% by spring 2026. + +Truist Wealth + +We anticipate the Fed will cut rates 75 to 100 basis points from current levels by the end of 2025. Notwithstanding temporary overshoots, we estimate the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will trade primarily in a range between 3.75% to 4.50%, which should provide opportunities to adjust our current neutral duration stance. + +UniCredit + +Since it will take a few months for Trump’s policies to be announced and implemented, and then for these to work their way through to the economy, we think the Fed will keep cutting rates in the first half but probably at a slower pace of 25 basis points per quarter. The Fed will probably enter a wait-and-see holding period beyond mid-2025, as prospects for above-target inflation and slightly-above-trend growth would require a higher trajectory for rates than otherwise. This would leave the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75-4% through 2026. + +UniCredit + +For next year, we expect a total of 125 basis points of BOE cuts, taking the bank rate to 3.5% by the end of next year. This is less than we previously expected, since the smaller tightening of fiscal policy will favour a more gradual reduction in monetary-policy restriction. + +BNP Paribas + +Uncertainty and the return of inflationary pressures in the second half 2025 look set to keep the Federal Reserve on hold throughout 2025. + +Comerica + +The Fed will see less need to cut interest rates in 2025 than signaled in their September Dot Plot. Comerica’s forecast sees the Fed cutting the fed funds target three quarters of a percent between Thanksgiving 2024 and the end of 2025. + +Deutsche Bank + +For Japan, a domestically driven recovery is likely to be fuelled by wage growth exceeding inflation, with the latter remaining around 2%. This should encourage the BOJ to lift the policy rate to at least 1% in fiscal year 2025. + +DWS + +In the bond market we expect yield curves to steepen further in 2025 as central banks' interest rate cuts leave their mark on two-year bond yields in particular. At the end of 2025 we see the Fed Funds rate at 3.75-4% and the ECB deposit rate at 2%. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +Faced with the aforementioned stickiness to price pressures though and the prospect of the inflationary aspect of Trump’s threatened trade tariffs and promised tax cuts, the Fed and other central banks will need to tread a very careful monetary path over the course of the coming 12 months. The FOMC could now leave rates unchanged until at least March. Moreover we anticipate a maximum of 75 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025. + +Global X + +In our view, the market’s rate cut expectations are slightly off, and we expect four 25 basis-point cuts from the Fed in 2025, though our confidence around the path of rate policy is likely to be impacted by tariff and tax decisions. + +Goldman Sachs + +Our European economists have downgraded their GDP forecasts across the region in anticipation of higher trade uncertainty, the ongoing pressures from China competition in key industries, and other spillovers. The ECB again is the primary and perhaps only institution that will need to respond, and a deeper rate cut path is the most likely outcome. + +Goldman Sachs + +In Japan, fiscal policy is also likely to be loosened after a disappointing election outcome for the ruling LDP, and we are increasingly confident in a domestic wage-price spiral and the ability of the BOJ to take policy rates to a higher terminal rate than the consensus among many market participants. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +Strong underlying wage-price dynamics suggest further policy normalization by the Bank of Japan, and we anticipate gradual upward rate adjustments in 2025 as election uncertainty subsides. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +It is worth monitoring the effect of changes to immigration policies, tariffs and fiscal spending on the Fed’s policy, but we don’t think the Fed will halt or reverse rate cuts till at least mid-2025. + +Jefferies + +We expect central banks to continue cutting rates and move close to neutral by end 2025. What neutral is can be debatable, but we see Fed rates around 3.5/3.75% and ECB rates close to 2% by end 2025. Risk is that the Fed stops slightly above neutral while the ECB moves slightly below neutral by end of next year. + +LGIM + +We think it is entirely possible that Fed cuts of 100 basis points or more will arrive by March, as the fabled soft landing is at last achieved. + +Macquarie + +The combination of still above target US core inflation, tax cuts, higher tariffs, and reduced immigration is likely to limit the scope for further US rate cuts, with the Fed funds rate bottoming around 4% (the end of secular stagnation). The dollar is likely to continue to move higher. + +NatWest + +We expect 50 basis points of Fed easing in 2025, and most of this to be done in the first quarter. In the wake of the presidential election, we no longer expect cuts in April and June, owing to the inflationary pressures of increased tariffs, among several factors. We also expect the Fed’s terminal rate to exceed the neutral, or ideal, rate. + +NatWest + +Our BOE forecast is for terminal rates to fall to 4% in May 2025, albeit subject to slippage. While the BOE’s remit is focused on hitting 2% inflation, a fix for the country’s deeper economic woes complicates the mission. + +Pictet Asset Management + +The Fed could disappoint by cutting less than the market hopes – we see its funds rate at 4.25% by the end of 2025, marginally above market consensus. But this could be offset by a relatively deeper cuts by the European Central Bank. This should spur credit demand and private money creation, and this increase in liquidity should underpinning what are otherwise rich asset valuations. + +Principal Asset Management + +Come early 2025, rather than reducing policy rates at each meeting, the Fed is likely to slow its cutting pace to every other meeting — with some risk that rates don’t fall as far as either the Fed or the market initially envisioned. + +Robeco + +Japanese corporates continue to pass on higher PPI prices to domestic consumers, BOJ raises policy rates. + +TD Securities + +Europe faces perhaps some of the biggest challenges in 2025, with geopolitics almost certain to have a negative impact on growth. Europe will be hit by US tariffs and China dumping its goods in response to US tariffs. The ECB will cut below neutral to 2% by June, while stickier inflation will see the UK cut more cautiously, pausing at 3.5% from August. + +Vanguard + +While inflation is now close to target in the euro area, that has come at the price of stagnation in 2023 and 2024, with muted external demand, weak productivity, and the lingering effects of the energy crisis holding activity back. Growth is expected to remain below trend next year, as a slowdown in global trade represents a key risk. Expect the ECB to cut rates below neutral, to 1.75%, by the end of 2025. + +Wells Fargo + +The Bank of Japan stands apart from other G10 central banks and is likely to continue hiking. Fiscal stimulus and higher than expected inflation drive this move. Upcoming wage negotiations could be another inflationary and consumption catalyst. + +ABN AMRO Investment Solutions + +The Federal Reserve is likely to cautiously normalize monetary policy, supporting spending through improved credit conditions. + +Allspring Global Investments + +We believe that the US economy can avoid a 2025 recession and that gradual rate normalization makes sense. Should these hold true, we expect short-term US rates will decline to 4% by summer 2025. + +Allspring Global Investments + +Internationally, the ECB will likely stabilize Europe’s short-term rates at 2%. However, we wouldn’t rule out a more aggressive approach, as the euro zone might have entered a low-growth, low-inflation environment. This would mean sales of government bonds — quantitative tightening — would end in 2025. + +Allspring Global Investments + +China and Japan will likely remain the outliers: Japan will aim to normalize monetary policy further while China is expected to deliver more fiscal and monetary stimuli to boost consumer demand. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +The global economic outlook is benign as monetary policymakers have curbed high inflation without triggering a recession. Abating price pressures will allow major central banks to cut rates further but the easing cycle will end well before policy rates reach pre-pandemic lows. + +Capital Group + +Interest rates don’t appear very restrictive to economic growth. Absent a recession, the Fed may cut less than previously expected before the election. Markets will shift their focus from the Fed to economic growth, corporate earnings, and the changing political and regulatory landscape. + +Columbia Threadneedle + +With underlying inflation around 2.5% and core inflation closer to 3% in the US (and not far off elsewhere), we don’t expect rates to fall as far as people think – certainly they will be higher than the 2010s. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +The pace of rate cuts could accelerate throughout 2025 if the economic growth impact of the UK Budget is less significant than expected and if domestic inflation pressures continue to normalize. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +In Japan, we have a call for the BOJ to be more hawkish than priced by the market and favor JGB curve flatteners. We also believe that the BOJ outlook will be almost orthogonal to the US outlook as most of the inflationary pressure at present are more driven by the domestic service component and less impacted by global or US drivers, barring a global recession. + +LPL Financial + +Inflationary pressures may re-emerge as new policies are digested, so upticks in inflation could lead to changing narratives and a slower pace of Fed rate cuts than expected. The labor market continues to show signs it is slowly shifting and remains key to how the economy ultimately lands. + +NatWest + +Whilst we expect G3 central banks to reach terminal rates before the end of the first half, these rates will be much higher than the levels settled at in previous cutting cycles, and the destination could differ significantly across regions. It is these different destinations that we expect be a key driver for foreign exchange in 2025, not just the speed at which central banks are cutting. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +In the UK, NTAM expects the Bank of England to maintain a gradual and cautious approach to further interest rate cuts. + +Nuveen + +Interest rates will likely be lowered more slowly than previously anticipated. In fixed income, this calls for less emphasis on duration positioning and more on generating alpha via relative spreads and credit selectivity. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to remain mostly rangebound from here. + +Principal Asset Management + +Stagnant European economic growth implies continued disinflation, potentially pushing inflation below-target in 2025. The ECB must cut more than the Fed, taking policy rates below their neutral level. + +Tallbacken Capital + +We are only a cut away from several estimates of the neutral rate. If the economy and inflation continue to trend the way they have, then there is a case for zero rate cuts or even a hike. We expect minimal cuts next year, moderately higher term premia, and back end rates to finish slightly higher than they are currently. We are in a tweaking cycle, not a cutting cycle. + +Vanguard + +We maintain our view that policy rates will settle at higher levels than in the 2010s. This environment sets the foundation for solid cash and fixed income returns over the next decade, but the equity view is more cautious. This structural theme holds even in a scenario where central banks briefly cut rates below neutral to allay temporary growth wobbles. + +Citi + +The combination of the adverse demand effects from US tariffs and increased uncertainty looks to skew growth a bit lower. But this should also provide scope for foreign central banks to be somewhat more stimulative than otherwise. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +Major Western central banks are all on a rate cutting path that should continue, while lower inflation gives consumers some breathing space. And corporate earnings have continued to surprise to the upside, proving that many companies have benefited a lot from innovation, and have suffered less from high rates than many expected. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +The Bank of England, with concerns over inflation, will likely cut rates at slower pace than the ECB while we expect Japan to increase its policy rate slowly. + +Robeco + +Central bankers need to tread carefully. By underestimating inflation risks in 2025 relative to growth risks, they could cause excessive easing (lowering actual policy below the natural rate), bringing an inflationary inflection point forward in time against a backdrop of reinvigorated procyclical fiscal policy and higher cost-push inflation due to tariffs. + +State Street + +State Street Global Advisors believes that the rate cut cycle that started in 2024 will continue for a while longer, although the Trump-led Republican US election victory could result in a change to the narrative in the latter part of 2025. Global geopolitical forces could also play their part in rupturing long-standing economic and financial ties. + +UniCredit + +Although the ECB and the BOE will likely continue towards neutral territory, a less-dovish Fed might make them more hesitant. + +Vanguard + +Although we expect the Fed to reduce its policy rate to 4%, cuts beyond that would prove difficult as any weakening of growth would have to be weighed against a potential inflation revival. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +We believe the Fed has flexibility to cut interest rates further, but we think policymakers will proceed cautiously based on how quickly the economy and inflation rebound. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +We believe 2025 will be the year of the global easing cycle. Falling policy rates will support trend-like economic growth in the US and the euro zone, but not boost demand so much that it reignites inflation. In China, policymakers seem set on ensuring that growth stabilizes, especially in response to the increased likelihood of higher US tariff rates. + +Pimco + +In the US, labor markets appear looser than in 2019, heightening the risk of rising unemployment. The Fed, like other DM central banks, is expected to realign monetary policy to this new cyclical reality. + +Wells Fargo + +US exceptionalism may finally lead to a sustained monetary divergence between the Fed and other central banks. We also expect differentiation across G10 even excluding the Fed, due to the quite distinct fundamentals and trade exposures of the various economies. + +====================================== +Fiscal Policy: Cutting Tax and Tape +====================================== + +The sustainability of government spending around the world is a key concern, but no one is expecting countries to rein it in. Any worries about Trump-led tax cuts in the US are cancelled out by optimism over their potential boost to growth. + +Bank of America + +BofA forecasts 124 rate cuts by central banks taking the global policy rate from 5% to 4%; the Fed predicted to cut rates two more times in the first half and then end its easing cycle in June; fiscal policies set to ease (German deficit to 3% GDP) or stay accommodative (US deficit 6-7% of GDP). + +Macquarie + +We expect the planned corporate tax cuts to be implemented quickly, boosting business investment and financial activity, and supporting yields. We also expect significant early action on immigration, although at this stage we assume that the impact on labor supply will be modest. + +Comerica + +The next Congress passes a major tax bill, combining extensions of some expiring provisions of the 2017 tax cut, reversal of some Biden-era tax increases, and follow-through on some tax-related campaign promises. Fiscal stimulus through tax cuts provides a significant incremental boost to disposable incomes and corporate profits, with pass-through to consumer spending and hiring. + +Jefferies + +We believe that current market concerns over Trump fiscal expansion and tariff impact are exaggerated. We do see US fiscal deficits moving higher, but we believe that the fiscal policies will not be as negative as the market fears. Similarly, on tariffs, we see them more as a bargaining tool for Trump and do not think they would have as negative growth impact as is currently feared. + +Tallbacken Capital + +Trump has promised tax breaks and seems intent to run a hot fiscal condition against the backdrop of 3% GDP and reasonably strong employment. Less regulation and potentially lower corporate taxes means more corporate capital for fixed asset investment, re-localizing key parts of the economy and reinforcing higher growth and inflation. + +Wells Fargo + +Tax cuts might be on the way for the US. The GOP sweep should allow Republicans to extend the TCJA, and possibly reduce tax rates even further. + +ABN AMRO Investment Solutions + +Trump's tax cuts may enhance corporate profits, continuing the robust earnings trend from 2024. + +Columbia Threadneedle + +Major global economies – from the US, the UK and Japan to much of Europe – are running deficits of 5%-6% (despite Europe’s supposed 3% limit). That may be manageable if interest rates are low, but if deficits continue to rise and rates don’t come down as much as expected, financing the deficit becomes increasingly problematic. When this eventually becomes a focus, it will become a market-moving factor. + +Neuberger Berman + +The debt and deficit implications, and the question of whether capital is being well allocated, may surprise investors by being manageable concerns in 2025. + +Pimco + +High budget deficits will likely persist, limiting the potential for further fiscal stimulus and adding to economic risks. As developed economies slow and potential trade and geopolitical conflicts loom, investors should favor caution and flexibility in portfolio positioning. + +BCA Research + +Our central case for US fiscal policy is likely to be bullish for growth and US corporate profits. If a moderate expansion in the deficit and deregulation are the only policies likely to be implemented next year (a replay of 2017), we would expect the US economy to continue to expand and equities to rise in 2025. That would warrant an overweight equity stance over a six- to 12-month time horizon. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +If interest rates do fall, we expect yield curves to remain steep and long-term rates relatively high. There are concerns about budget deficits, which look large for this stage of the cycle, but there currently appears to be little political appetite for fiscal prudence. + +Fidelity + +What China does on stimulus — and with its stock of US Treasuries — looms large. A stabilizing Chinese economy is welcome news for Europe, but it will not lend enough strength to the continent to fully recover in the next 12 months, while the dollar is a crucial factor for emerging markets. + +NatWest + +Whilst there will be fewer elections to contend with in 2025, we expect markets to be no less volatile as they navigate the swing towards fiscal activism, terminal rates and global protectionism. + +Wells Fargo + +China seems unlikely to enact a policy bazooka. However, we see direct stimulus and RMB depreciation to protect against tariffs and weak domestic demand. + +BCA Research + +Bond yields are likely to move significantly higher in an aggressive fiscal expansion scenario, but that is why moderate fiscal thrust is our base case view. Similarly, while tariffs typically raise prices, they could easily be deflationary on balance if they destabilize global economic activity. That favors a long duration stance. + +Capital Economics + +Fiscal vulnerabilities constrain governments over the coming year – indeed, this is a key reason why we do not expect the Trump administration to enact the additional deficit-financed tax cuts that many now anticipate. If governments attempt to delay the fiscal tightening that the markets have already factored in, or push through fiscal expansion that adds to already large deficits, then 2025 could be the year when the "bond vigilantes" make their proper return. + +Wells Fargo + +European politics have several major catalysts on the horizon. German elections could be a positive catalyst for the euro zone if the debt brake is ended, and fiscal stimulus reinvigorates growth. However, French cohabitation poses a risk to the current minority government and past fiscal reforms. + +=============================== +Tariffs: Tactical Awareness +=============================== + + +While everyone agrees new tariffs are on the way, some consider Trump’s tough talk a negotiating tactic, and expect actual trade barriers to be highly targeted and less aggressive than the worst-case scenario. China will bear the brunt. + +BCA Research + +We expect major trade action from the Trump administration in 2025, which will likely be negative for both the global and US economies. + +BCA Research + +We expect at least one major broad-based unilateral tariff next year: either a 10% tariff on all US imports or a large tariff on imports from China. Trump’s tariff proposals go well beyond what was implemented between 2018 and 2019, to the point that even half measures would probably cause a substantial global shock. + +Citi + +With respect to Trump policies, the base case of our global team is tariffs, extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, a sharp curb in immigration inflows, a broad deregulation of Biden-era requirements, and a potential boost to animal spirits. They think this cocktail will bring moderately higher inflation in the US, while the effects on US growth may net out at around zero. + +Comerica + +Comerica assumes that tariff rates increase. That lifts near-term growth of industrial production, contributes to higher prices of consumer and capital goods, and as a result raises inflation. The forecast also assumes that curbs on immigration slow the growth of the labor force. + +Deutsche Bank + +On trade we assume a 10 percentage point increase in the tariff rate on imports from China in the first half of the year (ratcheting up a further 10 percentage points in the second half) and an equalisation of tariff rates on motor vehicles with Europe. The forecast also assumes a 5% universal baseline tariff, though that is more likely to be implemented late 2025/early 2026. + +TD Securities + +China will be hit hard with 40% US tariffs imposed across the board. We expect policymakers to do everything in their power to replace lost export demand with domestic demand. + +DWS + +There can be little doubt that Trump will not be able to implement all of his plans in full, especially since some of them counteract one another. For example, getting a grip on the cost of living crisis, i.e. lowering inflation faster, is unlikely to go hand in hand with import tariffs and a ban on migration. + +Goldman Sachs + +Tariffs are likely to feature prominently in the new Trump Administration, coupled with modest additional tax cuts, more federal spending, and a light touch on regulation. That combination, meant to boost domestic business and weigh on foreign activity levels, should continue to keep capital flows tilted towards the US versus the rest of the world and support the Dollar on a broad basis. + +Goldman Sachs + +The disruptive macro and market impacts of across-the-board tariffs are the reason they aren't in our baseline scenario. But we do see a 40% chance of them being enacted, making them an underpriced tail risk. + +Jefferies + +We believe that current market concerns over Trump fiscal expansion and tariff impact are exaggerated. We do see US fiscal deficits moving higher, but we believe that the fiscal policies will not be as negative as the market fears. Similarly, on tariffs, we see them more as a bargaining tool for Trump and do not think they would have as negative growth impact as is currently feared. + +Macquarie + +Tariffs are likely to be rolled out faster this time, with the level of new tariffs imposed on China and others building over time. That would see a modest impact on growth and inflation in the second half, with headwinds building into 2026. + +Barclays Private Bank + +Any tariffs-related inflation shock should be short-lived. Similarly, just as how companies and consumers adjusted after the "trade war" in Trump’s first administration, we would expect the US economy to “move on” within a few quarters, following the announcement of new tariffs. + +Capital Group + +Trumponomics 2.0 policy priorities of tax cuts, tariffs and deregulation might be supportive of US economic growth and risk assets. It could also lead to a stronger dollar, higher inflation and elevated interest rates. We could see elevated volatility in interest rates and financial markets broadly as investors calibrate the direction of policy. + +Charles Schwab + +If history is any indication, the extreme tariff threats may simply be negotiation tools leading toward agreements with China and other countries, and potentially much less disruptive to economic growth, inflation, sales, and operations of multinational corporations. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +While the specifics and timing of potential US policy shifts remain unclear, we anticipate tax cuts, higher tariffs, reduced immigration and deregulation of various sectors. + +LGIM + +There are widespread expectations that tariffs imply a stronger US dollar, due to FX moves re-equilibrating trade flows in response to a relative price change and upward pressure on rates from higher inflation. We think that view ignores the potential impact on capital flows. + +Morgan Stanley + +Morgan Stanley economists point out that tariffs can slow economic activity with a lag of two or three quarters. Therefore, tariffs could become a drag on US growth in late 2025 and in 2026. + +TD Securities + +The first phase of the new Trump presidency is to introduce global trade uncertainty with the aim of reshaping policy. The first order effect is bullish for the dollar, reflecting the impact global trade tensions and associated tariff jawboning. + +Bel Air Investment Advisors + +The Trump administration has vowed to impose additional tariffs on US trading partners, curtail legal immigration, and accelerate the deportation of illegal immigrants. While these policies could be inflationary domestically, these measures will likely be offset by liberal fossil fuel policies and significant deregulation across various industries and sectors, especially in the energy and financial sectors. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +Our back-of-an-envelope calculations suggest that Trump’s proposed trade tariffs could reduce US GDP by as much as 0.3% this year (2025) and by far more in 2026 if more onerous tariffs are implanted. The flip side to this scenario of course is that the impact could be less severe if all the associated tariff revenues are fully recycled into fiscal easing (tax cut) measures. + +Schroders + +Widespread tariffs might be hard to implement into law, but the uncertainty will encourage US companies to reshore in any case. This could boost US growth at the expense of its neighbors, but we would also expect more monetary stimulus outside of the US to offset this. + +================================== +Stocks: Broadening Out +================================== + + +Wall Street is looking for the stock rally driven by the tech megacaps to broaden. That means a boost for mid- and small-cap equities in the US, which remains most firms’ preferred market, even if it won’t match recent returns. Cheap-looking international companies may offer bargains. + +Bank of America + +BofA forecasts the S&P 500 to end 2025 at 6,666, gains of 5-10% for global stocks, rotation from US to International markets in the second quarter. + +BNY + +Following a year of resilient earnings growth, we see a continuation of this trend with S&P 500 earnings growing between 10-15% in 2025. This brings our year-end S&P 500 target to 6,600. This suggests continued positive, albeit more muted, returns compared to 2024. + +Deutsche Bank + +Our equity strategists have been consistently and successfully bullish over the last decade, and they remain confident for 2025 with an S&P 500 target of 7,000 with gains seen in Europe too as they believe the risks are priced in. + +Evercore ISI + +Broad based earnings growth, a “still easing” Fed, generative AI and a business-friendly Trump administration support S&P 500 upside in 2025. Evercore ISI Strategy forecasts a year-end 2025 S&P 500 price target of 6,800. 2025e EPS is forecast to rise 9.6% to $263 while 2026e EPS is forecast to increase 9% to $287. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +Our 2025 S&P 500 price target is 6,500 with EPS of $270 (+10% y/y). Further easing in rates should help broaden the earnings recovery within S&P 500 and across the size spectrum. The central equity theme for next year is one of higher dispersion across stocks, styles, sectors, and themes driven by unsynchronized regional business cycles and central bank policies, evolving policy agenda of the new US administration, broadening earnings growth and crowded momentum factor positioning. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +In the regional portfolio, stay overweight Japan. Japanese equities stand to benefit from domestic reflation with improving real wage growth, accelerating buybacks and continued corporate reforms. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +While index concentration in big tech firms remains a concern (the top 10 companies account for 36% of S&P 500 market capitalization, the highest on record), every sector in the S&P 500 is expected to deliver positive earnings growth in 2025. This hasn’t happened since 2018. + +Ned Davis Research + +Our year-end S&P 500 target is 6,600, or 9% above current levels, with the risk for the market to overshoot and give back some gains in the second half. We would look to rotate into defensive styles and sectors. We enter the year favoring mid-caps and neutral on growth/value, but are prepared to rotate to large-caps and defensive value. + +Russell Investments + +We believe that post-US election dynamics, improving earnings, and attractive valuations may create compelling opportunities for US small caps in the year ahead. We also see a steepening yield curve offering opportunities in short-term bonds, as short-term rates are expected to decline faster than long-term yields. + +Societe Generale + +We raise our US equities slightly by 3 percentage points to 30% (and raise the overall equity weighting by the same to 45% of the entire portfolio), a moderate move considering already stretched valuations, with a 3.2% equity risk premium (we recommend avoiding US equities below the 3% mark). To protect the equity allocation from the looming trade war, we reallocate from continental Europe (-3) to the UK (+3) and from China (-2, from overweight to neutral) to Japan (+2). + +Tallbacken Capital + +The transition to a pre-GFC regime continues for older economy companies. Earnings, not P/E expansion, will define next year’s rally. We estimate 5% growth in the SPX Equal Weight Index in 2025 and up to 8% from 2025 to 2026. Our presumption is that de-regulation and AI will help boost margins in 2026. + +UniCredit + +Our year-end equity targets for 2025 range from +8% for Europe to +15% for the US. Japanese and Chinese companies are projected to show growth potential similar to Europe, each at +8%. Thus, we see the highest stock-market potential in the US, followed by Europe and Japan. While China's markets may exhibit some tactical catch-up potential, this will be limited by uncertainty surrounding tariffs. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +Earnings should be the primary driver of 2025 prices across equity asset classes. We expect that a broadening and acceleration of economic growth, spurred on by a Fed easing cycle, significant new deregulation, and resilient consumer, should fuel healthy top-line sales growth while the past two years’ focus on cost control should help turn revenue growth into profit growth. Year-end 2025 S&P 500 Index midpoint of 6,600. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +A positive backdrop for earnings, coupled with good macro liquidity, is positive for equity. However, valuations are stretched, particularly in US mega caps. Investors should look at equal-weighted indexes in the US, pockets of value in Europe and sectors such as financials, utilities and communication services, and consumer discretionary. Value investing and mid-caps are good hedges against possible declines in Growth and mega-cap stocks. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +US earnings forecasts and valuations look aggressive, yet past soft landings have driven strong equity gains. We remain optimistic about 2025 and we expect a mid-high single-digit return. The convergence of earnings growth should support a broadening of the rally in favor of US equal-weighted stocks. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +Sector allocation will be more critical than country allocation, emphazing a shift towards cyclicals, particularly consumer discretionary. AI, defence upgrades and manufacturing re-shoring will continue to be key themes. + +AXA Investment Managers + +A US growth focus in equities is also seen as core with upside coming from thematic sectors like automation, the green transition and the broader continued strong investment in technology and AI. + +Barclays Private Bank + +With global growth projected to slow below trend in the next couple of years and yields expected to decline, defensive sectors and so-called bond proxies could help to improve portfolio diversification. At the sector level, utilities and consumer staples appear best positioned globally, being negatively correlated with the business cycle and interest rates. They remain reasonably priced, especially in Europe. + +Barclays Private Bank + +We maintain a favorable view on UK large caps, due to their defensive tilt, undemanding valuations and attractive dividend yield. The FTSE 100 index has low exposure to the technology sector compared to global equity indexes, making it a compelling option to capitalize on a broadening of market leadership. + +BCA Research + +For now, global investors should be underweight stocks versus bonds and long portfolio duration on a six- to 12-month time horizon. Over the nearer-term, positive equity market momentum could continue unless the labor market deteriorates further, the prospect of fiscal thrust wanes, or until tariffs are announced or seem imminent. + +BCA Research + +Within a global equity portfolio, we recommend an overweight stance toward the US versus global ex-US even though the US market is very richly priced. Two out the three drivers of relative common currency equity returns favor the US next year. Still, valuation shows that the US equity market is quite vulnerable in absolute terms to a significant shock. Global ex-US stocks are priced much more reasonably, but their earnings would be disproportionately impacted by unilateral US tariffs. + +BCA Research + +We recommend overweighting defensive sectors versus classical cyclicals over the coming year. We recommend favoring large over small caps for now. Small caps are reliably high-beta plays, and major tariff imposition leading to declining large-cap stock prices would very likely entail small-cap underperformance. + +Bel Air Investment Advisors + +We believe the new Trump administration policies of looser regulations will lead to increased M&A activities across various sectors in the year ahead. This may significantly boost the prospects of small and mid-cap companies in the US going forward. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +Robust economic growth, broad earnings growth and a quality tilt underpin our conviction and overweight in US stocks versus other regions. We see valuations for Big Tech backed by strong earnings, and less lofty valuations for other sectors. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +Our regional equities preference remains the US. Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence was the primary driver of rising earnings in 2024; the bulk of earnings derived from the types of stocks making up the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, while the rest of the market saw barely positive growth. In 2025, the distribution is expected to be more balanced, even if Nasdaq earnings growth is still superior. + +Capital Group + +Look for opportunities to invest in dividend payers that have been left behind by the market. These include forgotten pharma, or drugmakers that have been ignored amid the market focus on weight loss treatments, as well as utilities and select banks. + +Capital Group + +The valuation disconnect between small and larger stocks is one of the highest we've seen. There are a lot of innovative companies reasonably priced relative to larger companies associated with well-known market themes. Certain small caps are poised for a comeback. + +Carmignac + +The broadly shared pessimistic sentiment towards Europe means some great quality assets – less exposed to economic and political uncertainty — can be bought at discount compared to their American peers, providing a great portfolio diversifier. We are not expecting fireworks in growth given what is happening – or rather not happening – on the old continent, but several factors could play in favor of European equities. There are many global leaders to be found at a very reasonable price. + +Charles Schwab + +The combination of mildly accelerating UK economic and earnings growth, tame inflation, rate cuts by the Bank of England and Brent crude oil prices remaining in this year's range of $70 to $90 per barrel, may help to deliver solid stock market performance in 2025, above the 30-year average of 6%. + +Citi + +In sectors we stay overweight tech on the positive cyclical backdrop and overweight financials on potential deregulation. If tariffs are more sweeping or earlier than anticipated, our overweight in communications and underweights in materials and industrials should outperform. + +Citi + +Investors are particularly downbeat on European equities, and the Stoxx 600 has lagged the S&P 500 on par with major crises. But bearish sentiment might set the stage for upside surprises. Potential catalysts include stabilizing EPS revisions, improving macro data, supportive tariff outcomes, China stimulus or ceasefire in Ukraine. We also go long the UK, a more defensive market, where tariffs are not a major threat and which could outperform early next year. + +Columbia Threadneedle + +At some stage US stocks will be too expensive, but underperformance is most likely to happen when other areas grow faster. If, for example, Europe grows faster it will look attractive because it is that much cheaper. Do we expect it to do so? No. + +DWS + +Equities should continue to be driven primarily by rising earnings, which we expect on both sides of the Atlantic. However, in the US, this growth is likely to continue to be strongly driven by the large tech stocks, which we expect will therefore retain their dominant position in the stock markets. In order to avoid being fully exposed to the resulting concentration risk we have no regional preferences and we foresee high single-digit returns on average globally for equities by the end of 2025. + +Evercore ISI + +Expensive valuations have a history of remaining expensive for extended periods of time. We are less than a year into this current high-valuation regime. While they could suppress longer term returns, near term, elevated valuation levels alone do not end bull markets. + +Evercore ISI + +Underperform rated sectors are Energy, Industrials, and Materials. These sectors have lower exposure to the secular AI trends and higher exposure to a slower global economy, particularly sluggish Manufacturing – resulting in less favorable earnings growth and revision profiles and are more sensitive to a strong dollar and weak China. + +Evercore ISI + +Small-cap stocks head into 2025 having completed their long climb back to their 2021 all time high, with arguably their best prospects since the peak of their pandemic era outperformance almost four years removed. + +Evercore ISI + +Our outperform rated sectors are Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology. Exposure to secular AI trends – as either Enablers or Adopters – features prominently in our selection. + +Fidelity + +Our multi-asset team recommends looking beyond the previous stars to patches of the market that have been more neglected in the enthusiasm for AI and tech. They highlight US mid-caps, for thematic investors future financials, for income investors non-US duration, CLOs, and short dated high-yielding credit, and for drawdown-aware investors the value of absolute return strategies. + +Franklin Templeton + +Returns will probably be close to long-term averages in the upper-single digits, including dividends. Prevailing valuations (which are relatively high) and historically high levels of profitability (on almost every metric) suggest that the super-charged double-digit returns of the past two years are probably not in the offing. + +Franklin Templeton + +Growth, earnings and valuations are likely to produce positive returns across global equity markets, with the US market once again leading. Over the next year, we believe global equity market leadership will come less from mega-cap tech companies, but instead via rotation into other sectors (as noted, already underway). + +Franklin Templeton + +Global equity investors can also tap into important themes to augment portfolio returns. Infrastructure buildouts in transportation, energy and communications remain pressing needs worldwide. Digital finance promises catalysts for financial disintermediation, innovation and growth. Demographic trends will continue to bolster asset gathering and asset management. And the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) creates vast opportunities across almost all industries. + +Global X + +An allocation strategy that aligns with a few key themes tied to US competitiveness in can offer reasonable upside and a degree of insulation from potential volatility: infrastructure development; defense and global security; automation, AI and onshoring; and energy independence and nuclear power. + +Goldman Sachs + +Given subdued valuations and a pro-cyclical backdrop, EM equities are likely to outperform fixed income, with greater room for policy support in China (and to a lesser extent India). EM equities will likely struggle to generate higher returns relative to US equities, however, especially in vol-adjusted terms. And while EM hard currency fixed income should prove more defensive than local currency in a strong Dollar environment, local currency assets have more scope to outperform if the tails are avoided. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +We expect the return structure of the stock market to broaden in 2025 against a backdrop of easing cycles and resilient growth. High valuations in some areas provide motivation for diversification. We see potentially undervalued long-term opportunities in the US, internationally and across the market cap spectrum. + +HSBC Asset Management + +With US valuations stretched, broadening profits growth could see a rotation within US equities towards neglected or defensive sectors that stand to benefit from policy actions, such as financials and industrials. Financials in particular would benefit from potential deregulation and increased M&A, while some industrials may benefit from tariffs, even with higher input costs + +HSBC Asset Management + +Assets currently priced for perfection could be the most exposed, paving the way for a significant shift in market leadership. Previously overlooked sectors such as value stocks, small caps and emerging market assets are likely to gain traction. This "great rotation" underscores the need to focus on local fundamentals and be nimble. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +In equities, US valuations are well above average and stocks’ upside will thus mainly depend on EPS growth. So we look for companies that can innovate and be well-positioned for structural trends. The US remains our principal equities overweight, together with the UK, India, Singapore and Japan. We remain overweight on technology but continue to diversify into communication services, financials, industrials, healthcare, and utilities. + +Jefferies + +We continue to find the macro backdrop as positive for risky assets. In our view it’s still a US vs Europe story with US exceptionalism to continue and Trump tariffs hurting European growth. We see S&P reaching 6,500 in 2025 but expect greater volatility in the price action. + +Jefferies + +Within equities, we remain long financials as the sector should benefit from deregulation. We are taking a step back from Big Tech and believe that equal weighted S&P would be a better index to be long rather than normal S&P. We expect small caps to outperform large caps in 2025. + +Jefferies + +European equities do look attractive from a valuation perspective. We think its too soon to start playing the long Europe story. But at some point, potentially around early in the second quarter, when Trump tariffs will prove less onerous than feared, and we could be looking at more fiscal stimulus from Europe and China along with better geopolitics, we would look to overweight Europe. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +We expect extraordinary earnings growth will settle at still-elevated levels for mega-cap tech while reaccelerating in other areas of the US market. This broadening, coupled with resilient economic fundamentals, policy tailwinds and secular trends, should support a more inclusive rally in the year ahead. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +The current polarized regional equity performance will likely remain in place going into 2025, with US equities preferred over euro zone and Emerging Markets. As 2025 progresses, there exists the potential for a convergence trade, given extreme relative positioning, valuations and price divergences across regions. However, more clarity is first needed on global trade and geopolitics. In the meantime, lack of a quality substitute to US equities remains the reality. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +Within Europe, UK could be more shielded with respect to trade headwind, given smaller manufacturing base and lower beta to the index. On the other side, euro zone remains an underweight given a combination of persistent growth and earnings downgrades, challenging politics and disappointing China growth. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +Europe’s domestic productivity woes do not mean that investors should ignore the top European companies. The 50 largest European companies derive only about 40% of their revenues from Europe, and the “national champions” within this cohort are dominant global players and best-in-class operators. That said, we prefer US equities to European equities in 2025. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +As governments reassess their national security, they will likely deliver higher levels of capital investment. Security covers not just traditional military defense, but cybersecurity, supply of critical natural resources, energy production, transportation and infrastructure. We think markets do not yet fully appreciate the investment prospects that this secular shift will create. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +We think capital investment into the power sector is about to ignite for three key reasons: the reindustrialization of US manufacturing, increased use of electrification in clean energy solutions and surging demand from data centers. Investors looking to capitalize on the growing demand for power can focus on broad infrastructure funds, power generation and utility companies. + +LGIM + +Amid conviction in yet more US equity outperformance, investors are prepared for the worst in Europe, Australia and Far East (EAFE) equities. With the hurdle for positive surprises low, we will be looking to add risk in non-US equities where we see opportunities. Japan is likely to be toward the top of this list. Investor appetite for Japan is subdued, while corporate profitability has been on a rising trend, with little by way of multiple expansion. + +Lombard Odier + +In equities, the outlook for earnings is strong, yet valuations are already very high. Where valuations look more appealing, the earnings outlook is less enticing. In the US, we expect deregulation and lower taxes to extend economic and equity market exceptionalism. Trade tariffs will weigh on growth elsewhere. We favour Japanese equities in non-US developed markets and Korea/Taiwan in emerging markets. + +Lombard Odier + +Macroeconomic conditions and the investment needs of a multipolar world are likely to benefit cyclical sectors. We believe materials will be the first to benefit from the tailwinds this creates. More sectors will follow, including industrials, later in the year. + +LPL Financial + +Expect modest stock market gains in 2025, supported by a stable economy, solid corporate profits, a Fed that is no longer hawkish, and some potential deregulation tailwinds. With stocks pricing in a lot of good news, positive surprises may be tougher to come by, so a repeat of 2024’s performance is unlikely. With the bull market another year older, interest-rate risk rising, valuations elevated, and still significant geopolitical threats, be prepared for bouts of volatility in 2025, and consider buying equities on market pullbacks. Our S&P 500 fair value target range for 2025 is 6,275 to 6,375. + +Morgan Stanley + +Emerging-market equities are still out of favor, and any potential increase in trade tensions would only make them less attractive. + +NatWest + +Our investments continue to be weighted toward risky assets, specifically global equities, which should include multinational companies with strong profit-making potential. + +Neuberger Berman + +The stage is set for broadening equity market performance. Deregulation, business-friendly policies, moderating inflation and lower rates may allow a broadening of earnings growth and price performance. + +Neuberger Berman + +Mega-cap technology growth rates are likely to decelerate and normalize as capital expenditure ramps up. Value and small-cap stocks, and sectors such as financials and industrials, could begin to catch up with mega-cap technology. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +We maintain a preference for equities over fixed income. We expect US equities to benefit from an economic soft landing and healthier corporate profits than most other regions. In 2025, we expect more modest gains for 60/40 portfolios with US equities leading the charge again. We are also constructive on small cap equities, which will likely benefit from lower interest rates as about half of small cap debt is floating interest rate. + +Nuveen + +While the AI boom should remain a key US growth driver, we believe investors should broaden their allocations. We are growing more positive toward US small caps that could benefit from shifts in tax policies, rising M&A activity and more protectionist trade practices. + +Pictet Asset Management + +Our wild card pick for 2025 is the unloved UK equity market. The UK is less exposed to US tariff hikes than the euro zone because it is more focused on services (which are unlikely to be impacted by Trump’s measures) and has no goods trade surplus with the US. The dominance of energy stocks and defensive sectors in the FTSE 100 also makes it an attractive hedge for stagflation – which we see as the biggest risk to our base case scenario. + +Pictet Asset Management + +Banks are our preferred soft-landing play – we expect strong loan growth in a benign growth environment given healthy private sector balance sheets; valuations also remain very attractive. Utilities are our favourite defensive sector that typically benefits from lower bond yields and has a strong tailwind from increased electricity demand. In communication services we see continued strong earnings dynamics and exposure to secular growth themes of AI and digitalisation. + +Principal Asset Management + +The backdrop bodes favorably for small-and mid-capitalization stocks, which quietly outpaced the long-dominant large-caps in the latter half of 2024, yet still offer historic relative valuation discounts. + +Robeco + +We see ultimately a stagflationary twist emerging from Trump’s policy agenda. After the initial hope phase, equities could face headwinds as the implications of a tariff wave become more tangible. In our base case, we expect mid-single-digit returns for the S&P 500 with 9% EPS growth, but higher real yields will likely reduce the high US equity multiples throughout 2025. + +Robeco + +Within the equity space, we see room for US small-cap and value stocks as tariffs will benefit domestic companies, aligning with an anti-globalist presidency. Reducing the US corporate tax rate to 15% might especially benefit smaller companies. At the same time, small caps and value have lagged a growth-driven rally, are still cheap. + +Robeco + +Europe trails behind the US in the cycle. We expect a rise in European multiples, given the continent’s positive earnings surprises and relatively lower discount rates creating multiple expansion, lowering the existing historically large discount on P/E basis versus the US. + +Russell Investments + +We are focused on US small caps, where post-election dynamics, improving earnings, and attractive valuations may create compelling opportunities. We also see growth managers targeting high-growth cyclicals like software, while value managers identify M&A (mergers and acquisitions) potential in financials and healthcare. Core managers are balancing cyclical exposure and managing risks in rate-sensitive sectors. + +Societe Generale + +Japanese growth is looking more robust than expected, while the wage and inflation outlook will probably trigger monetary policy normalization. We remain heavily exposed to the yen (17% in total, although cut by 3 percentage points) based on the monetary policy divergence with the US and Europe, and the massive undervaluation (read: one of the best expected returns). Japanese equities remain a relatively attractive asset, in our view, backed by solid balance sheets and more supportive shareholder-value policies. + +Societe Generale + +We recommend gearing equity baskets to the dominant mega-trends of our time: the shifting trends in trade and investment (US reshoring, Asia trade); energy (nuclear energy, given its importance in the transition period, allowing us to decarbonize with competitiveness); and defense, especially focused on European defense spending. + +State Street + +We believe US large cap equity will maintain its structural advantage to the rest of developed markets and see the outlook for emerging markets as more nuanced as investors balance economic and earnings growth, and easing inflationary pressures versus geopolitical risk and a strong US dollar. + +Tallbacken Capital + +Our year end price target for the S&P 500 is 6,500. This is predicated on a year end 2025 P/E of 22x forward earnings and a P/E modestly below current levels. We are forecasting earnings of $265 in 2025, $297 in 2026. However, if earnings momentum falters, we should expect significant consolidation and P/E contraction. This rally will be, once again, driven by large tech. + +Tallbacken Capital + +Large tech stocks will remain the core pillar of the rally. While Mag7 earnings will likely not be as great in 2025 as they have been in 2023-4, this segment will demonstrate again that it has the highest quantity and highest quality (lowest volatility) of earnings growth. + +Truist Wealth + +We expect the equity bull market — which still trails the typical up cycle in both price and duration — to be sustained by an ongoing economic expansion that boosts corporate profits, easing monetary policy, and continued fiscal support. + +Truist Wealth + +From a global asset allocation perspective, we enter 2025 maintaining our equity bias and our long-standing preference for US stocks relative to international. + +Truist Wealth + +We retain our positive view of US large caps given better fundamentals and earnings trends. We have turned more favorable towards mid caps given pro-growth policies, attractive relative valuations, and improving technical trends. + +Truist Wealth + +Our tactical sector preferences, which tend to be shorter term in nature, continue to be technology, communication services, and financials. The AI story remains a dominant theme of this bull market, and profit trends remain superior to the overall market. Financials should benefit from pro-growth policies, deregulation, and rise in mergers and acquisitions. + +UBS + +2025 should bring further upside for stock markets. The US is a preferred market, while diversified exposure to Asia ex-Japan could be an effective way to capture potential upside in the region while managing risks. In Europe, euro zone small- and mid-caps and Swiss high-quality dividend stocks look attractive. + +UBS + +The S&P 500 could reach 6,600 by the end of 2025 driven by solid US growth, lower interest rates, and AI advancements. + +UniCredit + +With economic growth likely to accelerate during 2025, the appeal of cyclical sectors will probably rise, making small- and mid-cap companies attractive relative to large caps. In relative terms, this could temper the momentum of technology stocks, whose robust earnings growth is already reflected in high valuations. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +Ample cash on the sidelines and continued elevated levels of federal government spending and Fed interest-rate cuts bolster the case for a full allocation to equities, in our view. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +We prefer the S&P 500 Index Energy, Communication Services, Financials, and Industrials sectors over a tactical horizon through 2025. And while these favored sectors seek to take advantage of growth opportunities, we think it is equally important to avoid areas of the market that are defensive in nature and may detract from tactical performance, like Consumer Staples and Utilities. + +Allspring Global Investments + +The breadth of the US equity market should continue to widen beyond the handful of mega-cap growth stocks that have pushed index concentrations to unprecedented levels. It’s also likely that we’ll see many of the value-focused sectors continue to outperform. + +Allspring Global Investments + +Investments in small- and mid-cap US equities will likely increase. Given their attractive valuations relative to large caps, investors are being compensated to move down in market cap. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +While excessive valuations persist in US mega caps, we see bright spots appearing in Japan, Europe and the US market beyond the mega caps. + +Apollo Global Management + +In public equities, valuations are too lofty, high concentration remains, and risk premia is virtually nil. When stocks are overvalued like they are today, lower future returns can be expected. + +AXA Investment Managers + +Policy may stimulate stronger earnings growth in areas such as financials and energy although the impact of potential tariffs is unknown for other industries. Overall, however, US equities are likely to retain their leadership position. Small-cap equities could also benefit from lower taxes and interest rates with upgrades to earnings expectations already having been seen. + +AXA Investment Managers + +Europe’s growth outlook is subdued, although equities could get some support from lower interest rates and the improvement in real incomes via lower inflation. European stocks benefit from more attractive valuations than in the US, and they boast a higher dividend yield. But expected earnings growth is only about half that forecast for the US. + +AXA Investment Managers + +Interest rate-sensitive and consumer-focused sectors should continue to perform well, with some potential upside for industrials – provided the global industrial cycle shows signs of an upturn and if the worst fears of a trade war do not materialize. + +Barclays Private Bank + +At this stage of the cycle, we favor quality companies with strong balance sheets, that have shown resilience in previous downturns and trade at reasonable prices. For investors who need to maintain index-level allocations, we would lean towards equally weighted indexes. + +Bel Air Investment Advisors + +Even at current elevated multiples, we anticipate that US stocks, which represent 64% of global equities, to outperform the RoW in 2025. Furthermore, US companies are much further along in the use of AI and other advanced data science techniques in optimizing their business models. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +European equities should also see market gains, but once again lag most other major markets. The region remains hindered by the overhang of geopolitics and structural challenges facing its largest economy, Germany. + +BNY + +US equities are poised to benefit. Earnings growth will remain strong while AI-driven technology improves profit margins, allowing US equities to continue to outperform the rest of the world. + +BNY + +In addition to solid corporate and economic fundamentals, the new administration’s focus on business-friendly policies, including the potential reduction of the corporate tax rate and reduced regulation, should support the US equity market’s move higher. History tells us that stocks tend to advance following an initial rate cut as long as a recession is avoided, which is our expectation. In fact, under these circumstances, stocks tend to earn double-digit returns. + +Capital Group + +Conditions appear favorable for broader market participation to continue, boosted by incoming President-elect Donald Trump’s business-friendly policy agenda. Priorities include easing regulations for banks, energy and health care companies, as well as increasing defense spending. + +Capital Group + +The build-out of data centres, a rebound in global travel demand and new energy sources are creating growth opportunities for Europe’s industrial titans. Although, tariff proposals in the US could pose headwinds for European companies so we are monitoring developments closely. + +Charles Schwab + +With the ECB widely expected to cut rates steadily through the middle of 2025, easier monetary policy could lift stock market valuation, as took place during prior rate cutting cycles. + +Citi + +The 2018 episode suggests that equities do not trade well during tariff wars, even if they are not as broad. The market will have to price some risk premium for broader tariffs, in our view. While US equities should outperform, it is a headwind for all markets. We stay overweight equities, with a bias to the US, but are prepared to cut early next year. + +Citi + +Our bubble indicator is suggesting that the rally is getting long in the tooth. We position for broadening, allocating a part of the US overweight into small caps, which typically does well when the manufacturing ISM is bottoming. + +DWS + +We believe investors should prepare themselves in good time for the fact that equities are more likely to see mid-single-digit total returns in coming years, not least due to the currently high valuation multiples. + +Evercore ISI + +While tech is expected to lead EPS growth, broad based growth across all sectors will lessen the index’s discomfiting reliance on a handful of stocks. + +Evercore ISI + +Volatility will rise given the unknown knowns of US policy changes intersecting with historically elevated valuations. While long term “buy and hold” investors will be best served by looking through the volatility, active investors will be able to take advantage of ebbs and flows in sentiment and positioning. + +Evercore ISI + +For Japan, corporate reform and improving profitability are expected to drive Japan's long term opportunity. + +Fidelity + +On equities we conclude that reflation will boost earnings, easing fears over higher corporate valuations. A pro- business, pro-innovation administration should prove helpful and lower interest rates should benefit capital-intensive industries and help cyclicals outperform. Optimism prevails in Japan and India. + +Global X + +Economic conditions are ripe for small- and mid-cap companies to perform well in 2025. While capital expenditure slowed in 2024, deregulation and increased business activity could encourage expansion and investment. If small businesses return to prior spending levels, this could provide a substantial lift to nonresidential private investment. + +Goldman Sachs + +As in 2024, we think there are strong arguments for using options to provide protection against macro tails. Equity volatility has fallen post-election, making it easier to gain upside exposure to US assets through calls again. Deeper downside exposure (including in European equities, which are vulnerable to some key risks) also looks more attractively priced. + +HSBC Asset Management + +We expect GDP and profit growth to converge in advanced economies, suggesting that investment markets outside of the US have room to perform. Neglected parts of global stock markets — such as value stocks — have an opportunity to catch up. + +HSBC Asset Management + +US equities could see continued strength, albeit limited by valuation concerns and interest rate sensitivity. As growth stabilizes and inflation remains under control, we expect to see high-quality equities outperforming. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +Many companies are sitting on cash which they will be happy to put to work, while others will take advantage of lower borrowing costs to invest. More M&A and more share buybacks will boost shareholder value and support stock markets. + +Janus Henderson + +Within equities, a broadening of US market performance beyond the Magnificent Seven may improve the return prospects of innovators outside of technology, and the sanguine economic environment and falling financing costs put small- and mid-cap stocks in a particularly favorable light. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +The prospect of deregulation and corporate tax cuts may finally give investors conviction to add to previously unloved areas of the market, like value and mid/small cap stocks, which are also benefiting from earnings recovery and attractive valuations. However, volatility may be ahead should more growth-negative policies emerge, such as tariffs. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +A shift in sentiment and earnings for European equities will depend largely on a rebound in China, a manufacturing upturn or stronger consumer spending — all challenging to overcome in 2025. However sector-level discounts, combined with healthy buybacks and dividend yields, present compelling opportunities in select European companies. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +Despite the risks, international equities offer investors the chance to diversify beyond expensive US markets. Adopting an active approach is crucial for capturing attractive opportunities fueled by powerful long-term trends, while also skillfully maneuvering through the policy fog ahead. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +Japanese corporations have in recent years made major strides toward improved corporate governance and more shareholder-friendly practices. Corporate buyback announcements in 2024 doubled the previous record. This trend should benefit private equity investors in Japan as well. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +While we believe DM equities will outperform EM equities next year, Taiwan, India, Indonesia and Mexico stand out to us as regions that could deliver solid returns to shareholders in both public and private markets. + +Lombard Odier + +We expect the US elections and potentially German elections to act as catalysts in developed markets to convert some of the reported infrastructure investment needs into infrastructure spending. In equities, we focus on stocks from companies along the length of the value chain, from materials to infrastructure operators, which will benefit from rising infrastructure spending. + +Morgan Stanley + +Fixed-income markets may benefit in the first half of 2025 as modest growth and lower inflation prompt additional interest rate cuts. In the second half of the year, relative value should shift toward equities if policy supports a meaningful pickup in mergers and acquisitions. But timing the rotation will be everything. + +Morgan Stanley + +Investors should consider stocks and spread products in fixed income in 2025, and US and Japan equities are likely to be the most attractive. + +Morgan Stanley + +The outlook moves European equities to neutral. Europe is growing more slowly than the US, and it’s exposed to tariff risks and further slowing in China, which faces continuing deflationary pressures. + +Neuberger Berman + +Non-US markets could perform more strongly on higher global growth and lower commodity prices. Relative valuations, as well as fundamentals, should provide support for this theme. + +Nuveen + +In equities, we generally favor higher-quality segments, leaning toward industries and geographic regions that offer fundamental tailwinds. Likewise, we are less positive toward areas with a higher degree of economic or interest rate sensitivity. + +Nuveen + +Geographically, we continue to believe US stocks offer the best combination of defensive characteristics and growth opportunities, although we are seeing some shifts in relative opportunities. + +Nuveen + +Energy demand is growing exponentially, but supply and transmission aren’t keeping pace. This imbalance suggests investing in green energy technologies, nuclear power and natural gas production to help fill the supply/demand gap as renewables ramp up. + +Pictet Asset Management + +Resilience will be the distinguishing feature of global equity markets in 2025, with companies likely to deliver steady earnings growth, translating into single digit returns for investors. We expect US equities to outperform. The US economy is still growing much faster than that of any other major developed country (albeit the gap is set to narrow somewhat in 2025). US corporate earnings are also increasing at a faster pace than elsewhere with continued traction on AI adoption benefitting the US-centric ecosystem. + +Principal Asset Management + +Improving economic conditions, growing corporate earnings, solid balance sheets and favorable credit conditions provide a constructive backdrop for global equities. Nothing on the equities horizon is raising broad warning flags, but vigilance is needed as disappointments will be punished amid the current high expectations. + +Principal Asset Management + +Opportunities will likely arise in companies residing in economically sensitive industries and overlooked sectors. There are many examples of companies generating resilient free cash flows trading at attractive valuations across various economically sensitive sectors, including materials, capital goods, consumer cyclicals and financials. The resilient but out-of-favor health care sector could experience improved breadth driven by greater M&A in response to recent market conditions. + +Principal Asset Management + +While numerous challenges and risks persist — most notably ongoing economic weakness in Europe and parts of Asia — the depressed valuations in these regions create attractive entry points for long-term investors in firms generating resilient economic returns. + +Robeco + +The path for equities may be treacherous as the incoming macro data will sometimes represent a hard landing narrative. Historically stretched US valuation levels against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical risk leaves the market susceptible to (deep) sell-offs and warrant protection against downside risk. + +Robeco + +High yield typically outperforms equities on a 12-month horizon only once starting spreads are above 700 basis points. As this level remains out of sight in our baseline scenario, we prefer taking equity risk in 2025. + +Russell Investments + +Elevated equity valuations make the US market vulnerable to negative surprises, and further dollar strength will challenge emerging markets. Sustained Treasury yields above 4.5% could challenge equities, diminishing the earnings yield advantage stocks have enjoyed over bonds since 2002. + +Russell Investments + +We expect increased market volatility from US foreign policy actions to create opportunities for active managers to find quality companies temporarily impacted by headline risks. + +Schroders + +The S&P 500 is looking expensive but valuations away from the mega caps and outside of the US appear more reasonable. Equity investors have grown used to a small number of large companies powering the stock market’s gains; however, this pattern is already changing. We think there is potential for markets to broaden out further in the US, particularly given Trump’s focus on deregulation and corporate tax cuts. + +Societe Generale + +The robust growth outlook and falling oil price are supportive of growth-driven assets. Corporate profits should remain solid and margins high, particularly in the US where corporate taxes could stay low (or even lower) helped by likely deregulation. + +State Street + +Within global equity markets, the resilient economic backdrop provides support for earnings, particularly in the US. Outside the US, we expect Japanese equities to move sideways due to potential volatility, while Chinese equities may struggle in sustaining higher growth and strong performance despite the short-term relief from the country’s stimulus program. + +T. Rowe Price + +As we emerge from a period dominated by US tech, international equities may offer breadth and room for growth. Diversifying into areas that have valuation support and robust fundamentals, such as value and small cap stocks, seems prudent. Japan, Korea, and the UK could also benefit from structural changes. + +T. Rowe Price + +We see a broadening opportunity set in equity markets. Small caps should benefit from further interest rate cuts and any signs of an improving economy. Underappreciated sectors like energy, financials, and industrials could also offer opportunities, signaling a stock-pickers' market. + +Truist Wealth + +The positives are partially offset by elevated market valuations and investor optimism indicating that the bar for positive surprises has been raised higher. These factors, alongside wider policy outcomes, suggest a bumpier ride relative to the past year. Investors should look to capitalize on opportunities that are likely to present themselves in the context of an ongoing uptrend. + +Truist Wealth + +The underperformance of the international markets, amplified by the US election, is nearing a short-term extreme. There are potential catalysts, such as follow through on China stimulus, easing Ukraine-Russia tensions, and a weaker dollar. While these developments may trigger sharp bounces in the international markets, the primary trend remains in favor of the US. + +UniCredit + +US equities will probably show the highest potential in the coming quarters, despite high market concentration and elevated valuations, but opportunities will also arise in other regions. We expect profit margins to remain highest in the US, albeit slightly lower, and we think the divergence in corporate earnings growth between the US and Europe that we have observed this year will continue in 2025. + +Vanguard + +US equity valuations are elevated but not as stretched as traditional metrics imply. Despite higher interest rates, many large corporations insulated themselves from tighter monetary policy by locking in low financing costs ahead of time. And more importantly, the market has been increasingly concentrated toward growth-oriented sectors, such as technology, that support higher valuations. + +Vanguard + +Ultimately, high starting valuations will drag long-term returns down. But history shows that, absent an economic or earnings growth shock, US equity market returns can continue to defy their valuation gravity in the near term. + +Vanguard + +International valuations are more attractive. We suspect this could continue as these economies are likely to be most exposed to rising global economic and policy risks. Differences in long-term price/earnings ratios are the biggest driver of relative returns over five-plus years, but economic growth and profits matter more over shorter horizons. + +Vanguard + +Within emerging markets, China is the sole reason valuations are below fair value, but the risks of rising trade tensions and insufficient fiscal stimulus in China pose additional headwinds. + +AXA Investment Managers + +China appears likely to continue rolling out policies designed to stimulate domestic demand. This should be positive for Chinese equities, but any improvement needs to be judged against the potential negative growth impact from US tariffs. + +AXA Investment Managers + +Emerging-market equities may find this a more difficult backdrop with a less benign US interest rate outlook and a stronger dollar also being headwinds. + +Barclays Private Bank + +In this environment, maintaining a well-diversified portfolio across sectors, regions, and styles is essential for equity investors. With returns likely to be more muted going forward, a greater focus on yield generation and capital protection is essential. Option strategies and structured products can be useful tools in that respect. + +Barclays Private Bank + +Chinese shares may become investible again in the coming months, once clarity on the stimulus measures announced by the authorities in September emerges. + +BCA Research + +Our central case for US fiscal policy is likely to be bullish for growth and US corporate profits. If a moderate expansion in the deficit and deregulation are the only policies likely to be implemented next year (a replay of 2017), we would expect the US economy to continue to expand and equities to rise in 2025. That would warrant an overweight equity stance over a six- to 12-month time horizon. + +Bel Air Investment Advisors + +Trading at a discount alone is insufficient to close the outperformance gap, unless earnings in the RoW grow faster than the that of US corporations. Based on real-time data, this seems unlikely. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +We don’t think pricey US equity valuations alone will trigger a near-term reassessment. But we are ready to adjust if markets become overexuberant. + +Capital Group + +Investors will need to dig deeper to discover opportunities in emerging markets. India and China present distinct investment opportunities and risks, with India's tech boom and China's consumer market each driving growth. + +Charles Schwab + +Japanese stocks remain attractively valued and have tended to perform better when the yen is weakening. Investors who are concerned about currency volatility may want to consider currency hedged investments. + +Charles Schwab + +China's economy could pick up in the near term due to recent acceleration in fiscal spending and front-loading of exports but is likely to continue to decelerate in 2025. Chinese stocks may continue to trade on prospects for stimulus, rather than company fundamentals. + +Global X + +Economic uncertainty is likely to remain as financial markets weigh the tradeoffs and net effects of lower taxes, higher tariffs, reduced immigration, more stimulus, and less regulation. Yet Global X sees an opportunity for investors to target themes tied to US competitiveness that will likely resonate in the economic and policy backdrop ahead. + +Global X + +Equities and risk assets may be poised for another year of good performance; however, the unique set of economic and policy circumstances likely warrants a more targeted approach in 2025. + +Global X + +Income investors may want to adopt a more targeted approach going into 2025 given the policy uncertainty and potential interest rate volatility. Many debt instruments could underperform in a volatile interest rate environment, led by long duration. To minimize sensitivity to rate uncertainty, equity income strategies using covered calls, preferred stocks and energy infrastructure assets can offer solutions. + +Goldman Sachs + +We think our baseline forecasts justify higher equity prices and further dollar outperformance, but that judgment is more finely balanced than it was. As US equity markets take more credit for potential favorable policies, the risks of disappointment as the policy agenda ultimately becomes reality will rise. The backdrop justifies investors maintaining upside exposure to US equities, while diversifying or using options to limit the major tail risks. + +Janus Henderson + +Outside of the US, lower premiums and upside potential warrant a second look. China’s policy support will need to continue if it is to meet the magnitude of the country’s economic challenges. This, in turn, could support select European companies that export to China. Other areas of interest include India, where reforms are helping create a high-growth backdrop, and Japan, where supportive corporate governance reforms are being enacted. + +Pictet Asset Management + +The tax cuts and deregulation measures expected from the Trump administration should deliver a significant boost to corporate bottom lines. However, we expect this to be largely offset by the negative impact of increased trade tariffs and tighter immigration rules. + +Pictet Asset Management + +Though the risks appear greatest for emerging markets, we feel they offer value under out central scenario. Stocks will be supported by globally coordinated easing and benign domestic inflation dynamics while growth conditions remain robust. + +Societe Generale + +An important debating point for markets in the run-up to the German general election (23 February 2025) is the increasing likelihood of the debt-brake rule being removed, and a fragmentation of the main political forces, as in France. This implies that the party(ies) in power would almost certainly need to secure the 2/3 majority in both chambers of parliament needed to change the constitution. We continue to recommend heavy overweights in the peripheral markets versus the core markets, in bonds and equities, and increase the weighting towards the UK. We like banks in Europe too. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +Besides fixed income, investors may earn dividend income from equities. US large-cap companies have accumulated over $2.4 trillion in cash on their balance sheets and could choose to initiate or increase dividend payouts. + +Morgan Stanley + +Equity valuations are more stretched than they were six months ago, but this is justified by company fundamentals and growing certainty about the economy. + +============================== +Bonds: All About Income +============================== + + +It’s a mixed bag, with more rates volatility expected and the potential for higher Treasury yields. Still, Wall Street sees fixed income as a key source of income, with relatively attractive yields. Almost everyone says get out of cash. + +Pictet Asset Management + +We expect US Treasury yields to fall slightly to 4.3% from the current 4.4%, with the Fed cutting interest rates to 4.25%. Real yields – a return bond investors can expect after inflation – are a positive 2.1%. We expect gilt yields to fall to 4% from the current 4.4%, supported by a more favourable inflation outlook compared with the rest of the Europe. + +Principal Asset Management + +Fixed income investors should consider the early 2025 rate environment a unique entry point to capture attractive starting yield levels and mitigate reinvestment risk. + +Russell Investments + +We believe that post-US election dynamics, improving earnings, and attractive valuations may create compelling opportunities for US small caps in the year ahead. We also see a steepening yield curve offering opportunities in short-term bonds, as short-term rates are expected to decline faster than long-term yields. + +Truist Wealth + +We anticipate the Fed will cut rates 75 to 100 basis points from current levels by the end of 2025. Notwithstanding temporary overshoots, we estimate the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will trade primarily in a range between 3.75% to 4.50%, which should provide opportunities to adjust our current neutral duration stance. + +Wells Fargo + +Implied terminal rates look too high. We continue to stress that markets are pricing too high a probability of a soft landing in the US, UK and Canada. For instance, we estimate the rates market prices about a 90% chance of a US soft landing. In our base case, low growth in US and euro zone leads to 10-year yields falling to 3.75% in the US and 1.9% in Germany. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +With the Fed and ECB expected to cut policy rates all the way to long-term neutral levels by mid-2025, Treasuries are expected to lead performance among government bonds, while investment grade credit will also benefit. The low recession probability and non-restrictive fiscal policies (at least in the US) suggest bonds will be key to portfolio diversification, fulfilling their income-generating function. + +BNP Paribas + +Our forecasts put the end-2025 two-year yield differential between the US and Germany at about 45 basis points wider than forwards currently imply. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +This is a positive environment for fixed income, in which bonds can again offer the income, carry and defensive characteristics to which investors were accustomed before the crisis years. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +The falling cash rate represents an incentive to move out of money market funds and to reinvest before policy rates hit their trough. + +BNY + +Bond yields continue to be attractive, and given our outlook for continued Fed rate cuts, we believe bonds are poised to perform well in 2025 once again. Yields across government, corporate and municipal bonds are at decade highs. + +BNY + +Higher starting yields not only provide investors with attractive income, but they can also act as a buffer against price swings caused by fluctuations in interest rates. This will be beneficial in the year ahead because the interest rate environment could remain volatile. Our estimated range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield of 3.25- 5% for 2025 is wider than normal. + +Citi + +In bonds, we look for relative value, keeping duration longs outside of the US. We switch our European periphery overweight to an overweight in Bunds, and add a new UK overweight. Our underweights are the US and Japan. + +Comerica + +The 10-year Treasury yield is forecast to average between 4.25% and 4.75% in 2025, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate between 6.25% and 7%. + +Deutsche Bank + +The 10-year Treasury yield should hit 4.75% in 2025 with Bunds at 2.50%. The curve in Europe should steepen significantly with a front-end rally. Conversely our strategists believe the front end of the JGB market is vulnerable. + +DWS + +In the bond market we expect yield curves to steepen further in 2025 as central banks' interest rate cuts leave their mark on two-year bond yields in particular. At the end of 2025 we see the Fed Funds rate at 3.75-4% and the ECB deposit rate at 2%. + +Goldman Sachs + +Given subdued valuations and a pro-cyclical backdrop, EM equities are likely to outperform fixed income, with greater room for policy support in China (and to a lesser extent India). EM equities will likely struggle to generate higher returns relative to US equities, however, especially in vol-adjusted terms. And while EM hard currency fixed income should prove more defensive than local currency in a strong Dollar environment, local currency assets have more scope to outperform if the tails are avoided. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +Rate cuts favor fixed income. We believe asset allocation decisions that land on bonds may prove rewarding in 2025. We see opportunities to ride the easing cycle, capture income across corporate and securitized credit, and use a dynamic investment approach across sectors and regions. + +Janus Henderson + +Within fixed income, diverging policy in major economies represents an opportunity to reinvest cash, capture excess yield, and diversify returns across geographies. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +In rates space we have a strong conviction in long duration in euro (10-year Bund below 2% in the second half) as the challenging growth outlook and the starting level of inflation prepandemic give more confidence on the ability of central bank to take inflation back to target, with risks skewed to the downside. + +LGIM + +We think yields on fixed income remain attractive by the historical standards that matter – the memories of current market participants. We consider this to likely be positive for fixed income strategies as we expect significant inflows in search of these yields. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +Money market funds remain an attractive alternative to other cash management options like deposits or Treasury bills, even as the Federal Reserve has started to cut rates. We see little chance of money market rates returning to near-zero. + +Nuveen + +Our general preference for de-emphasizing duration has one notable exception: municipal bonds. The municipal yield curve is steeper than the Treasury curve, and with credit fundamentals looking solid, we think longer-duration positioning in municipals makes sense. + +Nuveen + +We have a generally unfavorable view toward Treasuries (we see better value elsewhere) and investment-grade bonds (spreads are tight and the duration profile is longer than we prefer). + +Pimco + +We expect yield curves to steepen as central banks lower short-term rates, creating a favorable environment for fixed income investments. Historically, high quality bonds tend to perform well during soft landings and even better in recessions. Moreover, bonds have recently resumed their traditional inverse relationship with equities, providing valuable diversification benefits. + +Pimco + +Bond yields are attractive in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms, with the five-year area of the yield curve particularly appealing. Cash rates are set to decline alongside policy rates, while high government deficits may drive long-term bond yields higher over time. + +Principal Asset Management + +With a greater likelihood for the lasting path of front-end rates to be lower versus higher, increasing duration now will better position a portfolio to take advantage of falling rates. Coincidentally, increasing duration will reduce the risk that an investor sitting in cash and cash equivalents today will have to reinvest that money at a lower rate by locking in yield for a longer period. + +Robeco + +Improved global liquidity due to supportive procyclical fiscal and monetary policy bodes well for another year of risky assets beating sovereign bonds. + +Schroders + +The old-fashioned reason for owning bonds — to generate income — is back and we continue to argue for their inclusion in portfolios. Divergent fiscal and monetary policies around the world will also provide cross-market opportunities in fixed income and currency. Strong corporate balance sheets support the yield offered by credit markets. + +Societe Generale + +We again cut our exposure to government bonds on worsening fiscal metrics, debt-sustainability concerns and the threats from tariffs (EM local currency bonds cut 3 percentage points to zero). Credit, the "new cash," now has an equal weighting to sovereign bonds, at 19%, this being driven by credit-rating upgrades. + +UniCredit + +Assuming monetary easing will progress as we expect in both the euro zone and the US, we believe long-dated yields of eurozone government bonds and Treasuries have little room to decline from their current levels. With respect to the 10-year Treasury yield, we have pencilled in a range of 4.4%-4.6% for the end of 2025, 40-60 basis points higher than the terminal rate. We expect the 10-year Bund yield to remain in a range between 2.2% and 2.4% by the end of 2025 + +UniCredit + +Bonds will be in demand given their still-attractive carry, with rate cuts being well priced into government and corporate bonds. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +We see an opportunity for fixed-income investors to remain active and implement defensive and growth-oriented strategies concurrently. We believe that maintaining overweight exposure in US Intermediate Term Taxable Fixed Income will provide investors with the best relative yield while considering potential interest-rate risk. 10-year yield end-year target 4.5-5%. + +Allspring Global Investments + +If the Fed’s 2% inflation target is achieved, then the federal funds rate will likely be 3–3.5% by the end of 2025. The Treasury yield curve will likely normalize and steepen as a result, but longer-maturity bonds are vulnerable to higher yields if inflation remains elevated and/or fiscal impulses strengthen. We believe bonds should deliver “bond-like” returns in 2025. + +AXA Investment Managers + +The prevailing level of yields in developed bond markets provides the basis for robust income returns, which should remain above inflation. + +AXA Investment Managers + +For short and intermediate maturities, the bond market looks healthy. We see yields as fairly valued given the interest rate outlook – so much so that investors are unlikely to experience similar duration shocks to those seen in 2022 and 2023. + +Bank of America + +BofA forecasts range-bound government bond yields (e.g. Treasuries 4-4 .5%), range-bound corporate bond spreads (US IG bonds 80-100 basis points), and wider emerging-market bond spreads (widening by up to 100 basis points). + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +We are underweight long-term Treasuries on both a tactical and strategic horizon – and we see risks to our upbeat view from any spike in long-term bond yields. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +Persistent deficits and sticky inflation in the US make us more positive on fixed income elsewhere, notably Europe. We are underweight long-term Treasuries and like UK gilts instead. We also prefer European credit – both investment grade and high yield – over the US on cheaper valuations. + +Goldman Sachs + +Easing should sustain the outperformance of European rates relative to the US, although the market has moved a long way to reflect this. Better market opportunities may therefore lie in outright longs in Bunds, or a renewed compression of rate spreads between core Europe and Central and Eastern Europe, where the lower growth and rate outlook should spill over eventually. + +Invesco + +Long-term government yields will be mixed but most yield curves will steepen. Credit spreads will widen slightly and defaults will rise a little. Bank loan spreads will narrow marginally but defaults will rise a little. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +Slowing yet stable US growth and easing price pressures provide runway for continued cuts through 2025. We see the 10-year yield stabilizing between 3.75%-4.25% in a soft landing scenario, which remains our base case, and below 3.5% in a hard landing scenario. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +Extend duration out of cash. As the yield curve shape continues to normalize toward its steeper slope, reinvestment risk is real on ultra short-duration bonds. + +LGIM + +As a team, we go into year-end short duration, as speculation can build on what the new administration means for the inflation and fiscal outlook. But we intend to rotate that position back to a more structurally positive duration outlook once that reset in expectations is done. Curve steepening is a clear Trump trade that could come unstuck as the year progresses. + +Macquarie + +We see Japanese 10-year yields drifting higher very gradually, to around 1.5% by end-2026 on the back of BOJ policy normalisation and higher global yields. + +NatWest + +Within the bond space, we lean away from Japanese government bonds as it is the one region where inflation and interest rates are rising rather than falling. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +While US inflation likely will settle into a range above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% for 2025, we expect the path to be bumpy. We believe TIPS are an important defensive portfolio component for unanticipated inflation. + +Nuveen + +It makes sense to stick with an overall neutral duration stance (and investors still holding high levels of cash should consider lengthening duration). While the Federal Reserve and other central banks are cutting rates, we don’t anticipate quick or dramatic declines. + +Nuveen + +Interest rates will likely be lowered more slowly than previously anticipated. In fixed income, this calls for less emphasis on duration positioning and more on generating alpha via relative spreads and credit selectivity. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to remain mostly rangebound from here. + +Pictet Asset Management + +While bonds may not deliver outsized returns next year, the investment landscape is unlikely to be hostile for fixed income assets. Based on our base-case scenario – which is for benign growth and moderating inflation — we expect benchmark bond yields to stay range-bound, but real rates will be positive for most developed government bonds. + +Principal Asset Management + +As the year progresses, high-quality, longer-duration fixed income should outperform on a risk-adjusted basis as the inverted yield curve steepens and an economic slowdown becomes more apparent. Holding investment-grade paper should better position portfolios to weather an economic downturn and help reduce default risk. + +Robeco + +We generally expect negative macro surprises in the US given our below consensus 2025 US GDP call, and inflation will surprise to the upside in the second half of 2025. US bond yields are likely to peak somewhere in the 4.5%-5% bracket, reflecting a US nominal growth rate averaging above 4% in 2025. + +Russell Investments + +We see a steepening yield curve offering opportunities in short-term bonds, as short-term rates are expected to decline faster than long-term yields. + +State Street + +While spreads across both investment grade credit and high yield debt are near historic lows, we are optimistic about prospects for fixed income assets next year, and see a generally favorable environment for advanced economy sovereign debt. Market sentiment swings and volatility could potentially create opportunities for investors to manage or extend duration. + +Tallbacken Capital + +We simply won’t know where the Trump bond and equity puts are struck for some time, or for that matter, whether Trump’s reaction function to bond and stock movements is itself a moving target. This discovery process means volatility — first and foremost in the bond market. + +Truist Wealth + +For bond investors, the sharp reset higher in yields over the past three years has laid a solid foundation to deliver reliable income as well as stability during periods of equity volatility. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +We expect short-term Treasury yields to fall with the Fed policy rate, but longer-term yields should rise with economic growth, tariffs, and immigration restrictions. + +Allspring Global Investments + +Yields on the front end of the curve are particularly attractive today, but they are likely to move lower through 2025. Cash investors should consider extending duration to increase the income their portfolios produce while benefiting from duration as yields decline over time. + +AXA Investment Managers + +Our forecasts allow for greater monetary easing in Europe than in the US, reflecting softer growth. Thus, European fixed income investors may see total returns boosted by some decline in bond yields. + +Barclays Private Bank + +A neutral duration stance seems appropriate, and investors should be on the lookout for rate volatility, as a signal to extend duration selectively. In the credit market, securitised credit could be a useful diversification tool, while relative value and carry options abound in the BB-rated segment. Finally, emerging-market debt provides a vast pool of opportunities for investors to improve a portfolio’s risk-return profile. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +We see emerging-market bonds – particularly those denominated in local currencies – as a better place to take interest-rate risk. Country selection is of course important + +Carmignac + +We stay largely shy of the developed market sovereign bond space which, despite circumstances, offer a meager yield. The shape of the yield curve (inverted to flat) and the lingering inflation question leads us to prefer bonds linked to real rates (i.e. inflation-linked) over nominal ones. + +Goldman Sachs + +Bonds, particularly non-US bonds, should provide some protection against growth risks including those from a deeper trade war. Although US inflation risks are quite well-priced at the front end of the curve, expectations are more moderate further along the curve, so TIPS may offer a good portfolio hedge too. And broadening US equity exposure towards mid-cap equities or a more equal-weighted allocation may mitigate concentration and valuation risks. + +HSBC Asset Management + +With the yield curve set to structurally steepen, fixed-income returns will increasingly hinge on income components rather than capital appreciation — although less inflation risk and more pronounced growth risks in Europe support the case for duration assets there. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +We have a neutral stance across almost all bonds’ segments, apart from the Japanese government bonds, where we retain an underweight position. However, we continue to see corporate credit, including dollar investment grade bonds and global high yield as a good way of diversifying multi-asset portfolios and generating income by locking in elevated yields. + +Jefferies + +For rates, we see a range bound environment for much of 2025. Our bias would be to buy duration on any sell offs, though would prefer to buy European rates over the US. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +The outlook for US Treasury is more mixed in our baseline scenario of resilience (trough at 4.1% in the third quarter), but with a bullish duration bias at the short end of the curve as the market is pricing no chances of complete disinflation. + +Lombard Odier + +In fixed income, we keep our preference for corporate bonds, which will provide higher returns than government bonds. The latter will be challenged by rising budget deficits and public debt, generating more yield volatility. We therefore focus on where we see least pressure for bond yields to rise, notably Germany and the UK. + +Macquarie + +Our 10-year treasury yield forecast is driven by our outlook for Fed policy, growth and inflation. In 2025, we suspect it will be range bound, but move upwards in the first half on hopes for stronger growth before pulling back in the second half and ending the year at 4.25% as implemented tariffs weigh on the outlook + +Neuberger Berman + +Bond investors will likely shift focus to the growth outlook through most of 2025, and possibly deficits and the term-premium question late in the year and into 2026. The result will be moderately steeper yield curves and a migration of bond market volatility from the short end of the curve to the intermediate and long parts. + +Societe Generale + +An important debating point for markets in the run-up to the German general election (23 February 2025) is the increasing likelihood of the debt-brake rule being removed, and a fragmentation of the main political forces, as in France. This implies that the party(ies) in power would almost certainly need to secure the 2/3 majority in both chambers of parliament needed to change the constitution. We continue to recommend heavy overweights in the peripheral markets versus the core markets, in bonds and equities, and increase the weighting towards the UK. We like banks in Europe too. + +Vanguard + +Higher starting yields have greatly improved the risk-return tradeoff in fixed income. Bonds are still back. Over the next decade, we expect 4.3%–5.3% annualized returns for both US and global ex-US currency-hedged bonds. This view reflects a gradual normalization in policy rates and yield curves, though important near-term risks remain. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +Money market funds and other short-term fixed-income instruments likely will provide less benefit over inflation than in recent years. We favor extending maturities using a laddered strategy, investing first in intermediate maturities (3 – 7 years), next in longer-dated maturities, and finally shorter maturities. + +Allspring Global Investments + +Interest-rate volatility is high, and it may move higher due to inflation uncertainty and technical pressure in the government bond market. + +BCA Research + +Bond yields are likely to move significantly higher in an aggressive fiscal expansion scenario, but that is why moderate fiscal thrust is our base case view. Similarly, while tariffs typically raise prices, they could easily be deflationary on balance if they destabilize global economic activity. That favors a long duration stance. + +Capital Group + +US inflation is trending down towards the Fed’s 2% target. Using history as a guide, this would suggest we might be entering an environment in which bonds could continue to fulfil their traditional role as a portfolio diversifier. + +First Abu Dhabi Bank + +As far as Treasuries are concerned, the sector looks reasonably well priced, albeit not cheap. In the context of a robust US growth outlook, coupled with the prospect of higher government debt issuance this year (2025), as well as rapidly rising deficits, if all the tax cuts from 2017 are extended by President Trump, we may see some renewed downside pressure on prices in the coming months. + +Franklin Templeton + +Stronger US growth and the risk of inflation reversing course and moving higher could reduce the scope of Fed rate cuts, which would be a headwind for longer duration US Treasuries in 2025. + +Franklin Templeton + +Modest growth and falling inflation will allow most other major central banks to ease further, led by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the People’s Bank of China. But because European sovereign debt typically moves in tandem with Treasuries, European yield curves could steepen, and the euro may depreciate further. + +Franklin Templeton + +Protectionist US tariffs will probably escalate global economic tensions, which could lead to rising risk premiums. If so, global equity markets may struggle, leading to safe-haven flows that boost returns on higher quality sovereign bonds. Accordingly, risk management suggests that investors should include European longer-duration bonds as a hedge against trade-war risk. + +Franklin Templeton + +Income-oriented investors may want to consider shortening durations until it becomes clearer where interest rates are headed, and despite relatively tight spread levels increasing exposures to corporate credit, mortgage credit and asset backed securities is appropriate. + +HSBC Asset Management + +A higher-for-longer rate environment also challenges traditional 60/40 portfolio constructs, with government bonds losing some of their hedge appeal. This adds to the benefits of alternatives like private credit and real assets, alongside the uncorrelated returns of hedge funds. + +Janus Henderson + +While the 10-year US Treasury yield may see upward pressure from economic strength and potential policy impacts, yields on shorter-dated notes could still fall, although perhaps not as far as in Europe, as policymakers there have more work to do. + +LPL Financial + +Bond yields are expected to remain elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield likely to remain between 3.75% and 4.25%. Over the next 12 months, we see roughly equal upside and downside risks to yields as the markets grapple with the true impacts of budget deficits, increasing Treasury supply, and the scope of the Fed’s current easing cycle. For fixed income investors, a focus on income generation and duration management is advised and we believe the most attractive opportunities lie in the five-year maturity range. + +Morgan Stanley + +In fixed income, Treasury yields may continue to decline as the Federal Reserve cuts rates further than what markets have priced. Our economists expect Fed rate cuts to be on hold by midyear, however. + +Ned Davis Research + +We reduced our exposure to 100% of benchmark duration, and closed out our curve steepeners. We are overweight MBS and underweight CMBS and ABS. We are marketweight everything else. Policy uncertainty is set to drive a wide range of outcomes. Fair value ranges from 4% to 5.25% on the 10-year Treasury. Credit remains richly valued. Continue to favor loans over fixed-rate debt. + +T. Rowe Price + +Bond yields have been on a roller coaster ride as markets have tried to anticipate shifts in central bank policies. Given current market pricing, this implies upside risk to yields. Where to focus: Cash yields remain attractive, but longer duration fixed income is vulnerable. High-yield bonds and bank loans are best positioned for yield, while emerging market bonds also present favorable income prospects. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +Investors are likely to keep faith with Treasuries as long as the US economy keeps growing but the fiscal outlook points to higher fixed-income volatility. + +AXA Investment Managers + +There are risks around longer-term interest rates coming from policy uncertainty and the profile of government debt in many countries. This has already led to a cheapening of longer-term government bonds on a relative value basis, when compared to the interest rate swap curve. For some investors, this could provide opportunities to move out of longer-term corporate debt into government bonds + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +Longer-term Treasury yields could rise to reflect the uncertainty about the outlook for inflation, to say nothing of the US budget deficit. An extension or expansion of tax cuts would only lead to a further deterioration in the fiscal outlook. As always, however, it is unclear if and when the market will decide to fully price in these risks. + +========================================= +Credit: Pricey But With Potential +========================================= + + +Corporate debt looks priced to perfection, meaning risks are arguably tilted to the downside. But yields are solid, central banks are cutting rates and default risks seen as relatively low. Many firms prefer credit to government bonds as a source of income. + +Allspring Global Investments + +A diversified portfolio of dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed income bonds with intermediate (5- to 10-year) maturities has the potential to generate 6–7.5% total return over the next 12 months if interest rates fall approximately 50 basis points. A higher-quality bias is appropriate as the business/credit cycle advances and credit risk premiums remain compressed. + +Allspring Global Investments + +In global fixed income we have moved up in quality in favor of more defensive subsectors. This is expressed through overweights in health care and communications and an underweight in cyclicals. We are also overweight short/intermediate- dated maturities and underweight duration in the longer-dated part of the yield curve. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +With the Fed and ECB expected to cut policy rates all the way to long-term neutral levels by mid-2025, Treasuries are expected to lead performance among government bonds, while investment grade credit will also benefit. The low recession probability and non-restrictive fiscal policies (at least in the US) suggest bonds will be key to portfolio diversification, fulfilling their income-generating function. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +Investment-grade credit should provide superior returns relative to government bonds as spreads remain contained alongside steady economic growth. While spreads are narrow – both in the US and in the euro zone, and both for investment grade and high yield – they are relatively better for euro zone investment-grade credit, and we see this asset class as offering the best risk-adjusted returns. + +Fidelity + +Our multi-asset team recommends looking beyond the previous stars to patches of the market that have been more neglected in the enthusiasm for AI and tech. They highlight US mid-caps, for thematic investors future financials, for income investors non-US duration, CLOs, and short dated high-yielding credit, and for drawdown-aware investors the value of absolute return strategies. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +Rate cuts favor fixed income. We believe asset allocation decisions that land on bonds may prove rewarding in 2025. We see opportunities to ride the easing cycle, capture income across corporate and securitized credit, and use a dynamic investment approach across sectors and regions. + +Invesco + +Our optimisation process unambiguously favors bank loans, investment grade credit and commodities, while gold and equities are out of favor. When faced with difficult choices, we are now erring on the riskier side (given our view that economies will accelerate). + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +We like high-quality duration in securitized markets like agency MBS and asset-backed securities. We also favor the full spectrum of corporate credit (IG, high yield, bank loans and convertible bonds). These sectors would benefit in a soft landing scenario and continue to provide attractive yields even though spreads remain tight. + +LGIM + +We think yields on fixed income remain attractive by the historical standards that matter – the memories of current market participants. We consider this to likely be positive for fixed income strategies as we expect significant inflows in search of these yields. + +Nuveen + +We have a generally unfavorable view toward Treasuries (we see better value elsewhere) and investment-grade bonds (spreads are tight and the duration profile is longer than we prefer). + +Schroders + +The old-fashioned reason for owning bonds — to generate income — is back and we continue to argue for their inclusion in portfolios. Divergent fiscal and monetary policies around the world will also provide cross-market opportunities in fixed income and currency. Strong corporate balance sheets support the yield offered by credit markets. + +Societe Generale + +We again cut our exposure to government bonds on worsening fiscal metrics, debt-sustainability concerns and the threats from tariffs (EM local currency bonds cut 3 percentage points to zero). Credit, the "new cash," now has an equal weighting to sovereign bonds, at 19%, this being driven by credit-rating upgrades. + +UBS + +Cash returns are set to diminish in light of further central bank rate cuts. Meanwhile, investment grade bonds offer attractive yields and potential for capital gains, with total expected returns in the mid-single-digit range in dollars. + +AXA Investment Managers + +We continue to see US high-yield, a short-duration asset class, delivering healthy returns. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +Persistent deficits and sticky inflation in the US make us more positive on fixed income elsewhere, notably Europe. We are underweight long-term Treasuries and like UK gilts instead. We also prefer European credit – both investment grade and high yield – over the US on cheaper valuations. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +We prefer short- and medium-term investment grade credit, which offers similar yields with less interest rate risk than long-dated credit. We also like short-term government bonds in the US and euro area and UK gilts overall. + +Capital Group + +All in yields around 5% for a high-quality corporate bond market seems very attractive. If you also factor in potential rate cuts, then total returns of mid to high single digits over the next 12-18 months look to be a very reasonable expectation. + +Capital Group + +Investors can capture a healthy level of income within high-quality bonds. Security selection may be a driver of return, with attractive opportunities in agency mortgage bonds and securitized credit. + +Carmignac + +We prefer short-term investment grade corporates where a potential widening in credit spreads would be more than offset by the lowering of rates; and high-yield bonds with a favorable technical backdrop in a context where net issuances have been negative and are expected to be continuously met by investor appetite over the coming quarters. + +Invesco + +Long-term government yields will be mixed but most yield curves will steepen. Credit spreads will widen slightly and defaults will rise a little. Bank loan spreads will narrow marginally but defaults will rise a little. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +We are broadly constructive on credit with mild widening in euro high grade and modest narrowing in dollar high grade. + +Morgan Stanley + +Morgan Stanley strategists believe that leveraged loans offer the best balance of risk and reward, ahead of investment grade and high yield bonds, and the US market is more attractive than Europe. + +Morgan Stanley + +Fixed-income markets may benefit in the first half of 2025 as modest growth and lower inflation prompt additional interest rate cuts. In the second half of the year, relative value should shift toward equities if policy supports a meaningful pickup in mergers and acquisitions. But timing the rotation will be everything. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +Within fixed income, we continue to favor high yield bonds because of elevated yields, strong fundamentals and a supportive market backdrop. Credit ratings upgrades are outpacing downgrades, and the overall credit quality of the high yield market remains historically high + +Nuveen + +We favor high yield (especially higher quality segments that can weather slowing growth), securitized assets (where asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed segments offer value) and senior loans (which look increasingly attractive given the higher-for-longer rates environment). We are moving toward a more neutral view on preferred securities given recent strong performance, although we see value in $1,000 par securities where spreads offer value. + +Principal Asset Management + +As the year progresses, high-quality, longer-duration fixed income should outperform on a risk-adjusted basis as the inverted yield curve steepens and an economic slowdown becomes more apparent. Holding investment-grade paper should better position portfolios to weather an economic downturn and help reduce default risk. + +State Street + +While spreads across both investment grade credit and high yield debt are near historic lows, we are optimistic about prospects for fixed income assets next year, and see a generally favorable environment for advanced economy sovereign debt. Market sentiment swings and volatility could potentially create opportunities for investors to manage or extend duration. + +UniCredit + +Carry trade is set to be the name of the game for credit markets. The promising performance expected for European non-financials credit is fuelled by moderate macroeconomic growth in the euro zone and a credit cycle that is firmly in recovery mode. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +Opportunities are appealing in investment grade and short-maturity high-yield credit, leveraged loans, EM bonds and private debt. + +Apollo Global Management + +We expect credit fundamentals to remain robust. This, combined with elevated all-in yields and steep yield curves, can continue to attract inflows into the asset class. We believe this should support valuations even as the room for further compression is increasingly limited. + +Barclays Private Bank + +A neutral duration stance seems appropriate, and investors should be on the lookout for rate volatility, as a signal to extend duration selectively. In the credit market, securitised credit could be a useful diversification tool, while relative value and carry options abound in the BB-rated segment. Finally, emerging-market debt provides a vast pool of opportunities for investors to improve a portfolio’s risk-return profile. + +Capital Group + +Economic growth accompanied by interest rate cuts may offer a favorable tailwind for US corporate bonds across the ratings spectrum. Combined with attractive yields, US corporate investment-grade (BBB/Baa and above) and US high-yield bonds may benefit income-seeking investors. + +Capital Group + +Our portfolios currently have a bias towards higher-quality investment grade credit as we believe this area offers better relative value given tighter spreads. That said, our analysts believe the attractive level of yield offered, improved credit quality of the index and relatively short duration of US high yield provides a good source of diversified carry for mixed asset portfolios. + +Citi + +Credit tends to react earlier to deteriorating economic conditions in the US, and spreads are so tight that the convexity favors underweights to hedge our equity overweights in case of rising risk aversion, maybe on weaker US growth outcomes. We prefer to implement the underweight outside of the US, as US credit should benefit from lower corporate taxes and deregulation. We therefore go underweight EU IG and EM sovereign credit. + +Columbia Threadneedle + +Fixed income should start 2025 from a good base: yields are attractive and central banks are engaged in supportive, rate-cutting cycles, but disparities will exist. Stock and credit selection will be paramount. + +HSBC Asset Management + +There are favorable opportunities from high all-in yields elsewhere in credits, with fundaments solid, but many segments are "priced for perfection." This leaves little buffer against any downturn in credit quality. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +We have a neutral stance across almost all bonds’ segments, apart from the Japanese government bonds, where we retain an underweight position. However, we continue to see corporate credit, including dollar investment grade bonds and global high yield as a good way of diversifying multi-asset portfolios and generating income by locking in elevated yields. + +Janus Henderson + +Historically tight corporate spreads suggest securitized sectors and quality high-yield corporates may be better ways to add risk. Given the stage of the cycle, diversification and quality should be prioritized. + +Jefferies + +Overall we are positive credit for 2025, but with spreads at current tight levels, see a limited room for outperformance. In our view, credit will remain a total yield story rather than a spread story in 2025. + +Jefferies + +In our view there is still a fair bit of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to be invested. US money market funds have crossed $7 trillion. As Fed rates move lower, the cash will need to be invested and support fixed income in general and credit in particular. + +Lombard Odier + +In fixed income, we keep our preference for corporate bonds, which will provide higher returns than government bonds. The latter will be challenged by rising budget deficits and public debt, generating more yield volatility. We therefore focus on where we see least pressure for bond yields to rise, notably Germany and the UK. + +Morgan Stanley + +Corporate credit in 2025 may also be a story of two halves. The moderating environment in the first half may sustain corporate credit, but the story changes in the second half as equities may outperform. + +Pictet Asset Management + +We are constructive on credit in the medium term. Even though corporate bond spreads have fallen to near all-time lows, company balance sheets remain healthy with ample cash. Default rates are low and falling, in line with our forecast for the average default rate over the next five years of 2.7%. What is more, credit will benefit from further interest rate cuts. + +Pimco + +US agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) offer an attractive and liquid alternative to corporate credit. Additionally, asset-based sectors, in both consumer and non-consumer areas, provide appealing opportunities for private market investors, particularly relative to corporate lending. + +Robeco + +US investment grade credit, in particular, stands out with exceptionally tight spreads. In contrast, euro investment grade credit appears more attractive relative to the US, as spreads hover just below the 20-year median. + +Russell Investments + +Credit markets may have limited upside due to tight spreads, particularly in US high-yield and investment-grade bonds. This creates an opportunity to expand fixed income exposure into areas with more attractive risk/return trade-offs, such as emerging-market dollar bonds and private credit. + +Truist Wealth + +We stay tilted to high quality bonds as yields remain elevated relative to the past two decades. We patiently seek a better tactical opportunity to upgrade credit, where valuations are rich. + +Allspring Global Investments + +Credit spreads may stay tight given the supportive fundamental and technical backdrop. Waiting for a better entry point may cause investors to miss out on attractive carry. + +Apollo Global Management + +Given the combination of tight credit valuations and beta compression, we do not see attractive risk-reward trade-offs in extending spread duration or moving down the rating spectrum. We also see better value in private credit with the private-public spread still elevated. + +AXA Investment Managers + +On the credit side, despite spreads being tight, the additional return and the continued healthy state of corporate balance sheets underpins the attractiveness of both investment grade and high-yield bonds. Of course, investor sentiment towards credit will be subject to the uncertain evolution of policy and geopolitical risks but on a risk-adjusted return basis, credit is attractive. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +Investors thinking about the year ahead should be aware of the sizeable corporate refinancing wave coming up in the next 12-18 months, which could lead to higher yields (and lower prices). US mortgages can be a useful substitute, offering a higher yield in combination with an implied triple-A rating given their government backing. + +Columbia Threadneedle + +The rate-cutting cycle should create a favorable backdrop for high-quality bonds, but we think credit dispersion will increase in 2025. Balance sheet health across industries is not uniform, with highly leveraged companies particularly within high yield potentially vulnerable. + +Deutsche Bank + +For credit, 2025 starts at incredibly tight levels and as such the most likely outcome is wider spreads, even if this will be within the breakevens for most parts of the market. + +DWS + +Corporate bonds should remain attractive in 2025 due to their high current interest yield and overall robust economy. However, we do not expect yield spreads to narrow further. We prefer bonds with investment grade status to those without. + +Franklin Templeton + +Income-oriented investors may want to consider shortening durations until it becomes clearer where interest rates are headed, and despite relatively tight spread levels increasing exposures to corporate credit, mortgage credit and asset backed securities is appropriate. + +HSBC Asset Management + +We think shorter duration credits, like asset-backed securities, look interesting. They benefit from a higher-for-longer scenario given their floating rate nature. Securitised credits have high starting income levels and exhibit low correlations to traditional fixed income – making them a useful diversifier for portfolios. + +Ned Davis Research + +We reduced our exposure to 100% of benchmark duration, and closed out our curve steepeners. We are overweight MBS and underweight CMBS and ABS. We are marketweight everything else. Policy uncertainty is set to drive a wide range of outcomes. Fair value ranges from 4% to 5.25% on the 10-year Treasury. Credit remains richly valued. Continue to favor loans over fixed-rate debt. + +Pimco + +We maintain a cautious stance given some complacency we see in corporate credit due to tighter valuations, favoring higher-quality credit and structured products. Lower-quality, floating-rate private market areas appear more vulnerable to economic downturns and interest rate changes than prices suggest, with credit risks poised to rise just as yields fall, potentially benefiting borrowers but hurting investors. + +Fidelity + +Fixed income investors face tight spreads that are priced for benign economic conditions. With public sector deficits projected to expand, the prospect of tariffs and trade disputes, and ongoing geopolitical tension, there is a case that less optimistic scenarios are being underpriced. This represents a potential source of value in credit markets. + +=================================== +Commodities: Going for Gold +=================================== + +Wall Street is split on whether gold can continue to shine, though bulls see it as a good hedge for the unpredictable macro backdrop. Improving growth and the build out of tech infrastructure (data centers, power plants) could boost base metals. No one is particularly bullish on oil. + +BNP Paribas + +A stronger dollar and an on-hold Fed will keep a lid on gold prices into the second half, in our view, after hitting new highs in early 2025. + +Citi + +We forecast that oil prices will gradually decline to $60 per barrel by mid-2025 and remain around that level. + +Invesco + +Our optimisation process unambiguously favors bank loans, investment grade credit and commodities, while gold and equities are out of favor. When faced with difficult choices, we are now erring on the riskier side (given our view that economies will accelerate). + +Macquarie + +At core, we continue to anticipate a heavily oversupplied oil market in 2025, even assuming a continuation of subdued Saudi Arabian supply. Yet, we see room for pronounced volatility. we are modestly increasing our full-year outlook, with WTI averaging about $66 per barrel, up from about $65. + +UniCredit + +If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East do not escalate into a broader regional conflict, we expect OPEC+ to seek to stabilise the Brent price at around $75 per barrel. + +Bank of America + +BofA expects commodity prices to ultimately rise in 2025; base and precious metal prices forecast to jump (copper up 17%, gold to $3,000 per ounce); but oil prices to buck trend (Brent to average $65 per barrel, down 20% from 2024). + +BCA Research + +We are long the dollar, and are negative toward energy and industrial metals within the commodity complex. We are likely to remain overweight gold until we see significant evidence that central bank purchases are likely to wane. Investors should buy gold on dips. + +BNP Paribas + +Bearish pressures are likely to develop on crude oil prices in the second half, as tariffs sap demand growth. + +Citi + +We remain long precious metals despite the large run-up, largely because under Trump, central banks of countries that fear they could be targeted by sanctions will be even more incentivized to diversify away from the dollar. Gold is one of the few options available to them. + +DWS + +We do not expect gold to rally as it did in 2024, but we expect it will still achieve a decent gain. In any case, we believe that the precious metal is likely to serve as a good hedge in a challenging year 2025. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +In a context of higher US debt from fiscal expansion policies, potential higher inflation, and global uncertainties, we see gold edging even higher in the coming months. + +Jefferies + +We see 2025 as challenging for the oil sector. However, we see the macro picture as positive for metals, in particular copper and gold. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +In commodities, weak oil supply-demand fundamentals will likely bring down oil prices, with further support form Trump’s energy agenda. We remain bearish also on base metals on further pricing of China tariff risk. Keep a longterm bullish outlook on gold. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +Critically, gold – the original safe-haven asset – can serve as an attractive hedge against both geopolitical risk and uncertainty around sovereign debt and deficits. We also believe the US dollar is structurally overvalued. Gold is an efficient way to diversify currency exposure. + +Lombard Odier + +Following new US trade and energy policies, 2025 will likely be a year of US dollar strength and lower oil prices. We expect gold to perform well on haven demand and structural buying from central banks, but returns are unlikely to be comparable to 2024. Industrial metals should be supported by positive economic growth. + +Ned Davis Research + +We are currently bullish gold. We are neutral on the US dollar, euro, yen and the UK pound. + +Pictet Asset Management + +Gold continues to offer a useful hedge against inflation, geopolitical risks and any unforeseen shocks from the Trump presidency. After a recent correction, the precious metal has already started trending higher and it is likely to attract safe-haven flows. + +Schroders + +To the extent that investors are seeking diversifiers, we continue to like gold as it provides a hedge against recession risks like bonds. It is also a good store of value in the event of more stagflationary outcomes and geopolitical events. + +Societe Generale + +US energy policy should ensure that oil remains abundant. This comes at a time when Saudi Arabia is running massive excess capacity and demand growth remainsdisappointing. Based on this, we expect the oil price to continue to trend downwards, leaving room to offset some of the potential concerns from inflation prints, despite Trump’s policies -- and only allowing most central banks to keep a moderate loosening bias, preventing a sharp steepening. + +Societe Generale + +Central banks increasing their gold reserves is another long-term trend we would highlight. Apart from a heavy gold holding at 7% (unchanged) as protection against intensifying global geopolitical tensions, we have otherwise zero exposure to commodities. + +UBS + +Lower interest rates, persistent geopolitical risks, and US government debt concerns should continue to support gold in 2025. There are also long-term opportunities in copper and in other transition metals as demand rises alongside rising investment in power generation, storage, and electric transport. + +UniCredit + +Barring any escalation in geopolitical tensions or sudden spikes in inflation, gold may face limited upside in the near future. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +In our view, commodities are well-positioned to benefit from a rebound in global demand, driven by a modest international economic recovery and lower global interest rates. We favor holding a basket of commodities to gain exposure to the reacceleration of the commodity bull super-cycle. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +We are balancing our mildly pro-risk stance for 2025 with inflation-resilient assets such as cyclical base metals and infrastructure. + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +We would anticipate ongoing support for gold prices as investors look for alternative safe haven assets. + +Goldman Sachs + +In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85 per barrel range. Including the roll return, this means that energy and our broader commodity indexes should offer modest positive returns in the central case. But we think the risks of breaking outside those ranges are growing. + +Invesco + +Dollar will weaken as Fed loosens. Commodities will be supported by accelerating global economy and dollar weakness. + +LPL Financial + +Demand for a broad assembly of commodities will be crucial for new infrastructure projects globally, and continued renovation of aging infrastructure. The buildout of data centers is poised to require an abundance of commodities. For investors, commodity exposure should remain a small portion of a portfolio that’s diversified across the commodity complex. In addition, investors should consider infrastructure opportunities. + +Schroders + +Commodities have been out of favour due to global growth worries, but they have an important role to play in offering diversification and creating resilient portfolios. Energy is one way to play this, while gold is still the ultimate safe haven asset. + +TD Securities + +Given the change in the interest rate trajectory, a firm dollar and a slower uptake of physical metal by central banks and coin and bar investors, the gold market may very well be ready to consolidate recent gains. + +UniCredit + +Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to sustain demand for precious metals, while industrial metals will await better economic-growth prospects. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +We see more frequent volatility spikes in oil markets in 2025, but supply should remain the driving force. Saudi Arabia’s willingness to accept lower prices to restore OPEC credibility and regain market share, and growing non-OPEC output, both point to a weaker price equilibrium, in the low range of our $75 to $80 Brent target. + +Citi + +The looming tariffs mean that base metals may not trade all that well, despite signs that the global manufacturing PMI has turned higher, which is usually supportive. We are tempted to buy a tariff driven pullback. + +Jefferies + +On balance, we expect (and hope) for 2025 to be a better year on geopolitical front than the last couple of years. Whether Trump Presidency could engineer a deal between Ukraine and Russia remains to be seen. It would have significant implications on commodity prices and the growth outlook for Europe. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +Over the long run, we believe the negative stock-bond correlation will hold. But we see a strong argument for owning assets that can provide diversification to both equities and fixed income. What fits the bill? Historically, real estate, commodities and infrastructure have exhibited low correlations to stocks and bonds. At the same time, diversified hedge fund strategies have proved their worth in the post-COVID period. + +============================== +Currencies: Dominant Dollar +============================== + +The dollar is looking pricey, but on balance Wall Street sees more strength for the greenback in the near term as Trump policies come into play. Several institutions are predicting parity with the euro. + +Bank of America + +BofA forecasts a peak in the dollar in the first quarter; to remain strong vs. Asian currencies (end-year forecast for Japanese yen is 160, for Chinese renminbi 7.4), but euro to appreciate to 1.15 by year-end. + +BNP Paribas + +Given our expectation of widening front-end interest rate spreads, we expect EURUSD to fall to parity in 2025. + +Capital Economics + +With growth extremely weak and labour market conditions cooling, we think that policymakers in the euro zone will cut interest rates more aggressively than their peers in other major economies. We forecast that the ECB will lower its key policy rate to around 1.5% by the end of 2025. One consequence is that the euro is likely to weaken further: we think it will hit parity against the US dollar next year. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +We are also positive on the dollar with a call for EURUSD breaking parity (0.99 in the first quarter), we expect CNH to weaken on the back of the tariff shock (7.40 in the first quarter and 7.50 in the second), whereas we expect USDJPY to retrace on the back of a more hawkish BOJ policy than currently priced in (151 in first quarter, 148 in second). + +LPL Financial + +President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs could elevate currency market volatility and stoke inflation fears, putting additional upward pressure on the dollar. Based on this backdrop, we believe the dollar will be well-supported in 2025. We expect limited downside risk, while meaningful upside could be capped by the gravitational pull of a less hawkish Fed. + +Macquarie + +We think this dollar rally still has further to run. There is widespread optimism that tariffs will be rolled out incrementally not explosively, and only after a delay of up to a year — mimicking the playbook used last time. Back then, the dollar enjoyed broad-based strength from 2018-19, and history could well be about to repeat itself. + +Macquarie + +The yen is likely to be the only exception to the broad-based US dollar strength we anticipate. It should rally even more than the dollar. + +Societe Generale + +Japanese growth is looking more robust than expected, while the wage and inflation outlook will probably trigger monetary policy normalization. We remain heavily exposed to the yen (17% in total, although cut by 3 percentage points) based on the monetary policy divergence with the US and Europe, and the massive undervaluation (read: one of the best expected returns). Japanese equities remain a relatively attractive asset, in our view, backed by solid balance sheets and more supportive shareholder-value policies. + +UniCredit + +We expect the dollar to shine in 2025. The Trump presidency is likely to lead to higher inflation, a more-cautious stance by the Fed, more trade tensions with China and Europe and more isolationist US foreign policy, which all point to strong demand for the greenback. + +Wells Fargo + +The US dollar and currency volatility look poised to rise as tariffs, geopolitical risks, US fiscal and immigration policy serve as positive catalysts for continued dollar strength. + +BCA Research + +We are long the dollar, and are negative toward energy and industrial metals within the commodity complex. We are likely to remain overweight gold until we see significant evidence that central bank purchases are likely to wane. Investors should buy gold on dips. + +BNP Paribas + +We see further upside for the dollar against the CNY, MXN, CAD, SEK and CEE3 currencies. + +Franklin Templeton + +In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar should continue to appreciate, as investors seek out higher returns in US equities (public and private), US fixed income (given higher US interest rates) and via direct investment. + +Goldman Sachs + +Long dollar positions should also provide protection against both US rate upside and broadening tariff risks, reinforcing the case for US investors to keep hedging their overseas bonds (and equity) exposures. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +While global policy rates are expected to drift down, the US dollar will remain one of the higher yielding currencies, which makes it attractive. The US economy’s outperformance may be another source of support. And as tariffs add to uncertainty in our multi-polar world, the US dollar may continue to see some support from its safe haven status. + +Ned Davis Research + +We are currently bullish gold. We are neutral on the US dollar, euro, yen and the UK pound. + +Pictet Asset Management + +In currency markets, we expect the US dollar to overshoot in the near term. With resilient US growth and stalling disinflation, the Fed is unlikely to be able to cut interest rates aggressively. However, we think the dollar is approaching a cyclical and secular peak, under pressure from twin deficits of expanding government spending and current account imbalances, as well as expensive valuation. + +TD Securities + +The first phase of the new Trump presidency is to introduce global trade uncertainty with the aim of reshaping policy. The first order effect is bullish for the dollar, reflecting the impact global trade tensions and associated tariff jawboning. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +We believe a resurgence in US inflation and a spike in interest rate volatility are the only scenarios that would necessitate substantial upside for the dollar from this point. We find it difficult to believe that such a trend can be sustained, and expect the dollar to eventually weaken in 2025. + +Citi + +We expect the dollar rally will continue into the first quarter of 2025, and potentially persist through the first half, bringing the dollar into a new and higher range relative to the past two years. As the year progresses, though, uncertainty will reign, and the range of potential economic (and therefore central bank) outcomes feels wider than in recent years. + +Deutsche Bank + +In foreign exchange, the highlight is a EURUSD move to parity in 2025, but with a high beta to the uncertain tariff regime, and then to the European policy response which may lift the single currency as we move into 2026. + +Invesco + +Dollar will weaken as Fed loosens. Commodities will be supported by accelerating global economy and dollar weakness. + +Pimco + +In foreign exchange, we are somewhat underweight the US dollar as the Fed cuts rates, while diversifying into currencies from both DM and emerging markets. + +Wells Fargo + +We expect dollar gains in early 2025 to be concentrated against China-linked, more open economies with larger current account deficits. + +Wells Fargo + +Havens should enjoy relative near-term support with the Swiss franc and yen benefiting if interest rate differentials do not widen significantly. + +ABN AMRO Investment Solutions + +Tariff challenges for Europe may be mitigated by negotiation leverage and currency devaluation against the dollar. + +Robeco + +In our base case, bouts of dollar strength may remain, especially if the Fed slows easing and the US economy remains resilient in the second half of 2025 relative to the rest of world. The dollar-yen pair trade tickles our interest, as the discount of the yen on relative purchasing power parity is historical. + +Russell Investments + +The dollar is expected to face upward pressure from tariffs, the strength of the US economy, and a less dovish Fed compared to other central banks. However, its valuation remains high, and emerging-market currencies have already been under pressure. Given this, we are keeping currency bets in portfolios limited for 2025, while staying alert to any opportunities and risks that may arise throughout the year. + +UBS + +The US dollar is likely to be caught between short-term positive drivers, including tight US labor markets and tariffs, and longer-term negatives, including overvaluation . Investors should use periods of strength to reduce US dollar exposure. + +==================================== +Alt. Assets: Private Markets Rule +==================================== + +In an era of falling rates, high public asset valuations and rising dispersion in performance, Wall Street is touting both private markets and hedge funds as potential sources of diversification and returns. + +Principal Asset Management + +We believe the private market sectors should deliver improved or steady performance in our base-case economic scenarios in 2025. Even in a less-than-ideal future environment, the current positioning of the private market sectors (real estate, infrastructure, alternative credit, and asset-backed lending) could provide some softening in negative or tail risk outcomes. + +Russell Investments + +We expect private markets to continue playing an increasingly vital role in the evolving landscape of capital flows, as the shift away from public markets accelerates with fewer IPOs (initial public offerings) and later-stage listings. In this environment, we believe a multi-manager approach is crucial. By diversifying across specialized managers, particularly in real assets, we believe investors can access a broader range of opportunities that blend public and private market investments + +BNY + +Private credit is an all-weather allocation in our recommended portfolios. It offers higher current income and has outperformed public debt markets, such as investment grade and high yield bonds, over the last decade. This has been true in both rising interest rate environments and periods of low rates + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +Given rich public market valuations, lower bond yields and positive stock/bond correlation, investors should leverage alternatives to enhance portfolio return, income and diversification. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +We think capital investment into the power sector is about to ignite for three key reasons: the reindustrialization of US manufacturing, increased use of electrification in clean energy solutions and surging demand from data centers. Investors looking to capitalize on the growing demand for power can focus on broad infrastructure funds, power generation and utility companies. + +Lombard Odier + +There's an even greater role for alternative assets to play in extending investment opportunities for multi-asset portfolios. We emphasize the role of real estate, hedge fund strategies and private assets. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +As economies adjust, private markets and other alternative assets continue to evolve and attract a broader base of investors seeking to complement their traditional market exposures. We see a diverse opportunity set across private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure and hedge funds. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +We think volatility and dispersion in equities, fixed income and currencies will continue be substantial. This should benefit long/short and active strategies and underscores the importance of hedge funds as portfolio diversifiers. We maintain our overweight on hedge funds. We are most positive on discretionary macro, systematic equity market neutral, Asian equity long/short, multi-strategy and multi-PM managers. + +LPL Financial + +Investors should be prepared for a more dynamic market environment in 2025 and consider the use of alternative strategies to further diversify and enhance portfolios. Equity market-neutral, global macro, and managed futures strategies are well-positioned to capitalize on increased volatility and market dispersion. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +In private capital, we maintain our favorable guidance on growth equity and small- and mid-cap buyout strategies as deal activity continues to highlight preferences for quality growth and less debt. If economic growth accelerates in 2025, as we anticipate, we favor allocating to strategies with the flexibility to adjust to changing market conditions, such as equity hedge – directional, relative value – long/short credit, and macro – discretionary. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +Exploit volatility diversifiers (hedge funds and absolute return strategies), liquidity diversifiers (private markets) and macro/geopolitical diversifiers (gold). + +Apollo Global Management + +We believe the potential for long-term alpha generation remains more attractive via further diversification of portfolios with the inclusion of private markets (both equity and credit). + +BNP Paribas Asset Management + +In 2025, we see private credit as well placed to attract inflows. The fundamentals of companies across Europe are very strong after extensive deleveraging of balance sheets. Investors are searching for yield, as witnessed by the strength of public credit markets. For those investors with an appropriate investment horizon, private credit can generate attractive risk-adjusted returns relative to traditional fixed income. + +BNY + +Lower rates and the potential deregulatory environment coming from the new administration should create the conditions for M&A and IPO activity to reignite. We favor buyouts and venture capital funds, both of which have consistently delivered an illiquidity premium over passive public investments in exchange for their longer holding period. + +Fidelity + +The need for a diversified portfolio to spread risk also makes the case for private assets. Going into 2025, with many markets still on the cusp of recovery, prices are low and there are opportunities for investment that could deliver solid returns in the medium to long-term. + +UBS + +The outlook for residential and commercial real estate investments is bright. With constrained supply and rising demand, there are opportunities in sectors including logistics, data centers, and multifamily housing. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +In private markets, we stick to our long-term preference for infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. For income, we prefer direct lending given more attractive yields in private credit. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +We see the potential for assets like Bitcoin to provide distinct sources of risk and return. With traditional diversifiers like bonds no longer working as before, investors have more reasons to be dynamic with portfolios. + +DWS + +Alternative assets are enjoying little tailwind from monetary policy due to fairly stable interest rates at the long end, but fundamental conditions are improving in many areas, for example in residential real estate. + +HSBC Asset Management + +Alternative asset classes, such as private credit, offer valuable options to provide diversification and resilience to a global allocation. + +HSBC Asset Management + +A higher-for-longer rate environment also challenges traditional 60/40 portfolio constructs, with government bonds losing some of their hedge appeal. This adds to the benefits of alternatives like private credit and real assets, alongside the uncorrelated returns of hedge funds. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +Over the long run, we believe the negative stock-bond correlation will hold. But we see a strong argument for owning assets that can provide diversification to both equities and fixed income. What fits the bill? Historically, real estate, commodities and infrastructure have exhibited low correlations to stocks and bonds. At the same time, diversified hedge fund strategies have proved their worth in the post-COVID period. + +LGIM + +We think macro conditions are supportive of another strong year for private credit, but are watching out for higher-for-longer rates and strong bank competition. Real estate returns are expected to be reasonable, based on yields that have already reset and subsequent income growth – not yield compression. + +LPL Financial + +In the private market space, private credit and infrastructure remain attractive, albeit with some moderation in expectations. While challenges persist in private equity, opportunities should exist in the secondary market. + +Neuberger Berman + +Numerous factors are aligning to release a pent-up torrent of corporate dealmaking: above-trend growth; buoyant public equity market valuations; a more stable inflation and central bank outlook; the return of banks to the leveraged lending market; declining rates and tight credit spreads; and, perhaps most importantly, an expected change in regulatory stance in the US. Event-driven hedge fund strategies will benefit from a big new opportunity set. + +Northern Trust Asset Management + +We believe private credit has room to grow, supported by the shift of lending from traditional capital providers to private credit asset managers, while lower interest rates encourage potentially more mergers and acquisitions in 2025. + +Russell Investments + +We see private credit as a resilient asset class, particularly in the current higher-rate environment. With asset-based lending and European direct lending providing attractive relative value, we are broadening our fixed income exposures into these areas to capture higher yields and better diversification. We see attractive investment opportunities in real estate and infrastructure, particularly in areas benefiting from stabilizing long-term interest rates and favorable relative valuations compared to other growth assets. + +Schroders + +Private markets can also help provide resilience via exposure to different types of assets that are typically more insulated from geopolitical events than listed equities or bonds. Examples include real estate and infrastructure assets that offer resilient long-term cash flows, as well as assets like insurance-linked securities, where weather is the key risk factor. + +State Street + +Investors should look beyond the traditional balanced (“60/40”) portfolio and evaluate alternative exposures from a diversification, risk mitigation and alpha generation perspective. Allocations to real assets, commodities, infrastructure, digital assets and private assets could potentially offer higher returns, lower volatility and enhanced diversification. + +Truist Wealth + +Alternatives should help qualified investors navigate markets and embrace wider outcomes. Hedge funds are likely to offer opportunities amid global crosscurrents and asset class return dispersion. Private markets should benefit against the backdrop of lower yields and a pickup in mergers and acquisitions, improved business sentiment, and deregulation. We still find value in holding a modest gold position as a portfolio diversifier. + +Bel Air Investment Advisors + +Private credit will likely facilitate a significant portion of the M&A activities. Private equity funds that have been on the sidelines will likely have more exit opportunities and begin distributing capital back to LPs. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +The sharp decline in values and falling interest rates are starting to boost the appeal of real estate, but investment volumes remain subdued for now. That could start to change with further interest rate cuts and post-US election clarity. + +Janus Henderson + +While declining inflation may have diminished the need for real assets, inflation may return, and some categories could also benefit from lower rates and serve as a diversifier during a period of heightened geopolitical risk. Private assets within credit, equity, and infrastructure offer potential. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +As short-term interest rates settle at more normal elevated levels and as policy uncertainty increases, volatility across financial markets could remain elevated. Both dynamics should benefit hedge funds, which can provide diversification and the potential for enhanced returns. Meanwhile, investments in infrastructure and transportation can provide stability via steady income. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +Falling interest rates and a less onerous regulatory environment could help sustain a nascent revival in dealmaking, which had been essentially frozen since 2021. As a backlog of deals stands ready to be cleared, increased private lending should help jump-start transactions. Opportunities exist across the capital structure. The likely beneficiaries of a better environment for dealmakers? Wall Street banks, private equity and credit firms, and private business owners. + +LGIM + +While leverage and refinancing costs are likely to weigh on some areas of infrastructure, we think others will see robust asset creation. + +Nuveen + +In real estate, the office sector remains challenged, but we see compelling ideas in the industrial and alternative segments. We also like publicly listed REITs, where valuations, fundamentals and earnings appear favorable. + +T. Rowe Price + +Evolving economic and market conditions could expand opportunities for private market investors. Private credit will cater to complex financing needs, while potential IPOs and increased M&A activity, driven by lower interest rates, may offer liquidity avenues for private equity investors. + +Nuveen + +Private equity markets remain under some pressure (especially given still-high interest rates), but we do see value in secondary private equity markets, where demand is stronger and should continue to grow. + +========================== +Multi-Asset: Diversify +========================== + +Optimism for all things US meets richly priced assets and an unpredictable new era. There’s no escaping the gravity of American assets, but Wall Street is also looking for diversification, eying hedges and cautiously seeking opportunities abroad. + +Invesco + +We boost allocations to investment grade, REITS and commodities (all overweight) and high yield (remaining underweight), while reducing cash (to zero) and government bonds (to neutral). Bank loans remain our favorite asset class (from a risk-reward basis) and we remain underweight equities. + +Ned Davis Research + +Our US asset allocation recommendation is 70% stocks (15% overweight), 25% bonds (10% underweight), and 5% cash (5% underweight). On an absolute basis, we are overweight the S&P 500 (year-end 2025 target of 6,600). We are neutral on small-caps versus large-caps (implicit overweight to midcaps) and neutral on growth versus value. + +Carmignac + +We see opportunities in special-situation countries which have already had to battle with bond vigilantes and where significant reforms and turnaround policies are having an impact. Countries such as Argentina (where inflation is moving from triple to double digits), Turkey (where real yields are finally turning into positive territory), or Ecuador (where the combination of reforms and support from international institutions is beneficial). + +Franklin Templeton + +The re-election of President Donald Trump, accompanied by a Republican “clean sweep,” should provide markets with strong support into 2025. We believe earnings-friendly tax cuts and deregulation, accompanied by supportive macroeconomic fundamentals, should set the stage for solid returns. + +Franklin Templeton + +While investors ought to seek higher returns in US equities, global equity themes, short duration credit, and (where possible) in private markets/alternatives, they must also build in resistance against potentially higher volatility. We believe the appropriate approach relies on sound portfolio construction, blending uncorrelated returns across asset classes, styles, and securities. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +We maintain our mild overweight on global equities, while continuing to build our allocation to alternative assets. We believe equities will outperform bonds, and bonds will outperform cash. Sitting on excess cash is likely to once again be a drag on performance. + +Invesco + +From a regional perspective we prefer European and emerging market assets. We also seek exposure to an appreciating yen, which we do partly by maintaining the partial hedge out of dollar into yen. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +From a positioning point of view the most vulnerable asset classes are equities, the dollar and bitcoin and the least vulnerable are non-gold commodities. The elevated equity positioning calls for the careful consideration of equity tail hedges (such as put ratios), especially given that post Trump’s election victory volatility and skew have normalized. + +Ned Davis Research + +For global asset allocation, NDR recommends an overweight allocation to stocks, market-weight allocation to cash, and an underweight allocation to bonds. + +Ned Davis Research + +We are overweight the US, Canada, and Pacific ex-Japan; underweight emerging markets, the UK, and Japan; and makeweight Europe ex. UK. + +Principal Asset Management + +Barring a recession, US equities could very well produce a +10% gain, and core US fixed income could return +5-7% in 2025, with a slight decline in the 10-year Treasury yield. Credit spreads, while narrow, should continue to hold income appeal and remain durable. A globally diversified multi-asset strategy will likely have less return in 2025 than in 2024, but we still expect a solid year. Across our multi-asset portfolios, we’re positioned for increased volatility. + +Apollo Global Management + +Ongoing worries about the future long-term success of traditional allocation strategies (i.e. 60% stocks/40% bonds) are unlikely to dissipate. We see potential for depressed long-run returns in the public markets (both equity and bonds). Parts of the 60/40 portfolio invested in public markets can be replaced with private fixed income and private equity. + +BlackRock Investment Institute + +We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook. + +Carmignac + +We see opportunities in countries such as Japan (where the strengthening currency and the tightening of monetary policy should be well perceived by both the president elect and global investors) and India (which enjoys positive long-term growth and a recent softening of equity valuations). . + +HSBC Asset Management + +Emerging markets, in particular, present compelling opportunities for diversification. Many of these markets remain undervalued and under-owned by international investors, meaning that any positive developments can lead to strong market reactions. However, we must remain selective, as risks associated with a stronger US dollar, rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties could impact market sentiment. + +Invesco + +Despite the constructive economic and policy backdrop, our projected returns are lower than a year ago because of the intervening sharp rise in some asset prices. + +Jefferies + +We are constructive on EM for 2025 despite the uncertainty over tariff policies. However, there will be increased differentiation across geographies. Asia ex China remains our favourite play with India being the top pick. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +While China’s path ahead may be bumpy and involve trade conflicts with the US, opportunities in EM ex-China remain promising. India is expected to maintain strong earnings momentum due to falling rates and robust services export growth. + +Amundi Investment Institute + +EMs are expected to outperform DMs. India and Indonesia are long-term winners. In the short term, China may benefit from additional stimulus. + +Evercore ISI + +Recent dollar strength has weighed on relative performance in Europe following Trump’s re-election. A moderation from near all-time dollar highs set in 2022 could ease headwinds. Moderating geopolitical tensions as well as a China recovery would bolster support as well. + +JPMorgan Chase & Co. + +In a resilient macro outlook with the Fed unable to deliver a complete cutting cycle, we are cautious across EM, leaving aside the additional risk potentially coming from tariff shock. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +To protect the recent surge in household wealth and manage increased macroeconomic volatility, clients need resilient portfolios. Three approaches – relying more on income, adding assets that may help mitigate the threat of inflation, and using options and derivatives strategies to shift risk and reward profiles – can help portfolios withstand unexpected shocks. + +Allspring Global Investments + +The relative payoff has been growing for emerging-market investing, and we expect this trend to continue. + +Citi + +Emerging markets are neutral; China’s policy shift could propel further gains, though Trump administration risks are particularly acute. + +================================= +AI: Long Live the Revolution +================================= + +Artificial intelligence is a potential double-driver of returns, as adoption of the technology brings new productivity gains, and as corporations and governments invest heavily in the infrastructure needed to power the revolution. + +BNY + +We expect technology to continue to drive profit margin improvements and earnings growth as AI ramps up and increasingly impacts our lives. We believe AI’s role in the world will surpass that of other technologies that propelled earlier periods of tidal change, such as the internet, mobile phones and the cloud. Gains will not be limited to technology companies; productivity enhancements will be distributed across all sectors as other industries embrace new business practices. We continue to recommend an overweight to US large cap stocks in 2025. + +Capital Group + +AI may be overhyped and bigger than you think. The so-called hyperscalers — Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft — are spending about half of their capex budget on technology and half on buying land, constructing as many data centers as possible near reliable power and locking in long-term contracts with energy suppliers. That should provide investment opportunity for years. + +Evercore ISI + +Our outperform rated sectors are Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology. Exposure to secular AI trends – as either Enablers or Adopters – features prominently in our selection. + +Franklin Templeton + +Global equity investors can also tap into important themes to augment portfolio returns. Infrastructure buildouts in transportation, energy and communications remain pressing needs worldwide. Digital finance promises catalysts for financial disintermediation, innovation and growth. Demographic trends will continue to bolster asset gathering and asset management. And the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) creates vast opportunities across almost all industries. + +Truist Wealth + +Our tactical sector preferences, which tend to be shorter term in nature, continue to be technology, communication services, and financials. The AI story remains a dominant theme of this bull market, and profit trends remain superior to the overall market. Financials should benefit from pro-growth policies, deregulation, and rise in mergers and acquisitions. + +Wells Fargo Investment Institute + +We expect the AI theme to broaden, benefiting companies across many sectors and industries typically more removed from the technology-related sectors. We anticipate long-term tailwinds for energy infrastructure investing. Industrial equipment (electrical, HVAC, generators, water utility infrastructure, midstream energy, nuclear power, and construction materials) is needed to build the infrastructure of a world driven by this emerging technology. + +UBS + +Artificial intelligence and power and resources constitute two opportunities within equities with the potential to provide significant and sustained profit growth, that could earn investors in these areas outsized long-term returns. + +T. Rowe Price + +While the initial rapid growth phase may be over, AI remains a powerful productivity enhancer for the global economy. What does that mean for investors? Transitioning to AI’s next investment phase. Innovative “linchpin” companies—with strong fundamentals—offer strongest growth prospects. + +Evercore ISI + +As AI tools move beyond the confines of chatroom applications and enter the arenas where goods and services get produced through the proliferation of Autonomous Agents and Robotics, Generative AI’s applications will become increasingly apparent. + +Goldman Sachs Asset Management + +This is an era of disruption. Geopolitics, supply chain shifts and the rise of AI will remain prominent themes. We believe mapping their long-term implications, identifying opportunities at their intersection, and strategically allocating capital across public and private markets can drive positive financial and real-world impact. + +Barclays Private Bank + +Investing in task-specific AI applications within fields where AI unlocks productivity gains, by automating a large share of an occupation’s tasks, appears more promising to us than banking on "breakthrough" developments from the competing producers of frontier models. + +Russell Investments + +We think that the new US administration’s focus on deregulation and tariff-based policies could reduce market concentration, potentially supporting active-manager outperformance. We and our active managers are focused on sectors where AI adoption is accelerating, such as industrials, healthcare, and consumer goods. We believe companies leveraging AI for productivity improvements are well-positioned to gain a lasting competitive edge and generate strong returns. + +JPMorgan Asset Management + +Secular spending on AI, the energy transition and diversifying supply chains are also providing sizable tailwind for the market. The “hyperscalers” are accelerating capex to upwards of $200 billion this year and 2025 is set to be another year of significant investment. This spending will benefit areas of the market like data center real estate, engineering and construction, nuclear and renewable power, energy transmission, gas-powered electricity, cooling technologies and the electrical components that connect it all. + +Jefferies + +We remain positive on utilities on continued investment into AI which is energy intensive. With central bank rates coming lower, we see real estate sector picking up though there would be variations across regions. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +Businesses and governments are primed to spend: 2025 will be the year of capital investment. Margins are elevated, profits and C-suite confidence are on the rise, and policymakers are focused on supporting growth. Three global trends require enormous investment: AI, power and energy, and security. + +Ned Davis Research + +We see several transitions impacting our thematic outlook for 2025. Moving to a crypto-friendly SEC, a greater software focus in AI, and more durables in demographic spending top our list. + +Nuveen + +Other attractive infrastructure plays: local electricity transmission facilities and data centers powering the artificial intelligence boom. + +======================= +Risks: Trade War II +======================= + +A bursting of the AI bubble and bond investors losing patience with profligate governments are among the big Wall Street worries. But the largest by far is that Trump goes harder than expected with tariffs, triggering retaliation and hammering world growth. + +Tallbacken Capital + +Given the current over-extension in the markets, we should expect some consolidation, with a high risk of a mid/late winter sell-off. This also means sector and stock picking is especially important, with key sectors outperforming, or underperforming the market. + +Wells Fargo + +Implied terminal rates look too high. We continue to stress that markets are pricing too high a probability of a soft landing in the US, UK and Canada. For instance, we estimate the rates market prices about a 90% chance of a US soft landing. In our base case, low growth in US and euro zone leads to 10-year yields falling to 3.75% in the US and 1.9% in Germany. + +Charles Schwab + +A trade war could pose the biggest risk to global growth in 2025. President-elect Trump initially threatened 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 10-20% tariffs on imports from all other countries. Taken at face value, this would calculate tariffs increasing to the highest level in over 100 years. + +Citi + +The main downside risk would come from excessive tariffs. If the 10% broad tariffs, the 60% on China and/or the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico should materialize, the outcomes for the economy would be much worse. + +Deutsche Bank + +For all economies and asset classes, a more severe trade war scenario is the most obvious risk, whilst the return of the bond vigilantes in the face of ever-growing fiscal deficits is an alternative risk. + +DWS + +Even though our core scenario is positive for 2025, this time the range of threats to this scenario is far larger than usual. Much depends on how the current geopolitical flashpoints (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan potentially) develop; the patience of the bond markets in the face of the unchecked US debt binge; the extent of further AI investment euphoria and, of course, the decisions that the presumably unconventional next US administration will take. + +Goldman Sachs + +The risks of a broader trade war look underpriced. If the market comes to place more weight on that outcome, we think that would reinforce dollar upside, but add to pressures on non-US, and ultimately US, equities. Unusually high US equity valuations may amplify the reaction to any economic weakness and dampen long-term expected returns. + +HSBC Asset Management + +From an investment standpoint, next year is likely to be marked by heightened volatility and policy uncertainty. In our view, tail risks shouldn’t be ignored. Currently, markets seem to prefer an optimistic outlook, focusing on assumptions around tax cuts, deregulation and their expected impact on future profits. What market valuations may not yet capture is a scenario of higher long-term rates and declining global trade, which could ultimately weigh on company fundamentals. + +JPMorgan Wealth Management + +Tariff policy presents perhaps the biggest risk to global growth. While we do not believe blanket duties on all imports are likely, tariffs on specific goods or trading partners are. Retaliation from trading partners would exacerbate the negative shock to global trade. + +Macquarie + +The risks appear skewed to the downside. While we assume a gradual ramp up in the level of tariffs, it is possible that the first salvo is both bigger and faster than we have assumed. That would see global growth slow materially and US inflation move higher. + +Morgan Stanley + +Policy uncertainty in the US will remain a factor worldwide, with potential deregulation as a positive, while tariffs and restrictions on immigration might disturb markets later in 2025. + +NatWest + +Donald Trump's proposed aggressive tariffs clearly represent a significant threat to the current pattern of global trade, risks further trade wars, and may weigh on economic growth in 2025 and beyond. Estimates suggest that there would be a negligible impact on the UK economy and a limited impact on the EU (with Germany and auto manufacturers the most exposed). However, a sharp drop in Chinese growth would be likely. + +Ned Davis Research + +Our inflation forecast (2.75%-3.25%), GDP expectations (2.0%-2.5%, with a slower second half), Fed policy uncertainty, EPS projection (8.4%), 10-year yield outlook (4.625% fair value), potential for tariffs and deportations, and the presidential cycle suggest the risks increase in the second half. + +Principal Asset Management + +What are the risks ahead? Policymaker error, either from central banks or the government. The difficulty of accurately estimating the neutral rate, particularly at a time of profound technological change, means that as monetary easing cycles progress, the risks mount. Governments also need to tread cautiously. Bond vigilantes are steadily gathering. + +Schroders + +We need to recognize that the risks are increasing as positive expectations get baked into market valuations. In particular, around a 4.5% to 5% yield on the US 10-year bond, we would judge that comparisons with bond valuations would pose a speed limit to equity returns. + +Schroders + +Our bias is still to worry that the US growth environment might be “too hot” rather than “too cold”. Curbs on immigration and policies to boost the corporate sector could increase the risk of domestic inflation, curbing the Federal Reserve’s abilities to deliver rate cuts. + +Capital Group + +While we have reasons to be optimistic about the outlook we must also be prepared for a downturn. In addition to stocks, bonds will play an important role as the normalization of interest rates returns us to a time when fixed income can provide income, diversification and a cushion against stock market volatility. + +Deutsche Bank + +US tariffs will reinforce Europe’s competitiveness issues and increase the need for the EU to coalesce around its own strategic policy shift. A maximalist Trump trade agenda and a Europe constrained to act because of fragmentation is a huge but realistic risk for the continent. + +Evercore ISI + +Signs of economic weakness would derail equities’ current trajectory. Tariffs and immigration could each weigh 0.4%pts on real GDP growth in 2025. Yet benign bond market conditions (10 year yield is rangebound between 4% and 4.5%) and credit spreads which remain near their “tights” do not acknowledge the threat to growth or inflation which Trump v2.0 prospectively poses. + +Evercore ISI + +Higher inflation from tariffs could force the Fed to temper, though not abandon, its easing stance. Sticky inflation coupled with slower growth could rekindle memories of a 2022 style drawdown, when stagflation worries catalyzed stocks sharply lower. + +Franklin Templeton + +A combination of stronger US demand, courtesy of surging business investment, tax cuts and fiscal easing, may not be accompanied by an increase in the economy’s supply side, especially if a combination of tariffs and immigration restrictions reduce foreign inputs of goods and labor supply. The support equity markets have garnered from falling inflation and falling interest rates could erode over the next 12–24 months. That is a risk factor we think investors should consider across equities and fixed income portfolio holdings. + +HSBC Global Private Banking + +If there is any risk here, we think it is the potential for stronger-than-expected US data (further boosted by tax cuts and deregulation) to cause markets to flip-flop between the soft-landing and no-landing scenarios: this would lead to volatility in the rate expectations and hence the need for a tactical and active investment approach. + +Invesco + +Apart from stretched valuations for some assets, there a number of other reasons for the cautious approach: fiscal consolidation is needed in many countries and this could dampen growth; the global economy may be too fragile to shrug off a potential trade war; inflation may pick up earlier than expected as economies accelerate and, finally, a worsening of an already extreme fiscal position in the US could push treasury yields even higher and weaken the dollar (especially if the Fed’s independence is called into question). + +Lombard Odier + +Geopolitics remain a prominent risk across markets, centred around US-China tensions, and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Other key risks include a resurgence in inflation, or a more pronounced slowdown in global growth. + +Pimco + +The US economy, like others, appears poised to achieve a rare soft landing – moderating growth and inflation without recession. But there are risks, such as tariffs, trade, fiscal policy, inflation, and economic growth. + +Truist Wealth + +Policy uncertainty remains elevated. The potential for tax cuts, deregulation, and improved business sentiment will counter risks such as tariffs, immigration-related labor constraints, and fiscal imbalances. + +Vanguard + +The likelihood that we are in the midst of a valuation-supporting productivity boom, akin to the mid-1990s, must be balanced with the possibility that the current environment may be more analogous to 1999. In the latter scenario, a negative economic development could expose the vulnerability of current stock market valuations. + +Bank of America + +Investors must hedge for unanticipated "tail risks" e.g. end of HK currency peg, "America First" policies inducing euro break-up or EU pivot to East, Trump tariffs causing snap US contraction, secondnd wave of inflation forcing Fed hikes, dollar debasement on new inflationary Fed Chair in 2026, classic Wall St bubble in AI, and so on. We believe an AI/Magnificent 7 "bubble" is the most obvious "tail." We believe long crypto and China stocks (distressed value/tech-exposure) are best plays in a Magnificent 7 bubble. + +Carmignac + +Global markets have been quick to price further US exceptionalism following the election, while European and emerging market equities are stuck at the low end of their historical valuation ranges. The return of bond vigilantes, along with the US moving from exceptionalism to disruption, could be the catalysts for a great regional rotation. + +Evercore ISI + +Higher bond yields responding to inflation or a worrisome debt trajectory could prove an issue. One of these years, this chart will matter. But for it to matter, we believe it will require bond yields well in excess of 5%. + +Ned Davis Research + +Supply-side disruptions, including tariffs and mass deportations, are downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation. + +Ned Davis Research + +The global economy has shown notable resilience, with recession chances waning. Risks include monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty, sticky inflation, and easing Chinese growth. + +UBS + +A tariff shock could trigger a stagflationary downside scenario. At the same time, negotiations with trading partners or domestic legal challenges might mitigate their scope and impact, and tax cuts and deregulation could support a more positive market narrative. + +Capital Economics + +Fiscal vulnerabilities constrain governments over the coming year – indeed, this is a key reason why we do not expect the Trump administration to enact the additional deficit-financed tax cuts that many now anticipate. If governments attempt to delay the fiscal tightening that the markets have already factored in, or push through fiscal expansion that adds to already large deficits, then 2025 could be the year when the "bond vigilantes" make their proper return. + + + +Related tickers: + +ABN NA Equity (ABN AMRO) +29025Z US Equity (Allspring Global Investments) +AMUN FP Equity (Amundi) +APO US Equity (Apollo) +0181531D FP Equity (AXA Investment Managers) +BAC US Equity (Bank of America) +BARC LN Equity (Barclays) +5142490Z CN Equity (BCA Research) +23576Z US Equity (Bel Air Investment Advisors) +BLK US Equity (BlackRock Investment Institute) +BNP FP Equity (BNP Paribas) +BK US Equity (BNY) +4471071Z LN Equity (Capital Economics) +5389Z US Equity (Capital Group) +0305118D FP Equity (Carmignac) +SCHW US Equity (Charles Schwab) +C US Equity (Citi) +297115Z LN Equity (Columbia Threadneedle) +CMA US Equity (Comerica) +DBK GR Equity (Deutsche Bank) +DWS GY Equity (DWS) +2587002Z LN Equity (Evercore ISI) +5079Z US Equity (Fidelity) +FAB UH Equity (First Abu Dhabi Bank) +BEN US Equity (Franklin Templeton) +1008806D US Equity (Global X) +GS US Equity (Goldman Sachs) +2942359Z US Equity (Goldman Sachs Asset Management) +HSBA LN Equity (HSBC) +IVZ US Equity (Invesco) +JHG US Equity (Janus Henderson) +JEF US Equity (Jefferies) +JPM US Equity (JPMorgan) +0282542D US Equity (JPMorgan Asset Management) +1279236D SW Equity (Lombard Odier) +4081767Z US Equity (LGIM) +LPLA US Equity (LPL Financial) +MQG AU Equity (Macquarie) +MS US Equity (Morgan Stanley) +NWG LN Equity (NatWest) +8766641Z US Equity (Ned Davis Research) +1031231Z US Equity (Neuberger Berman) +NTRS US Equity (Northern Trust) +1434394D US Equity (Nuveen) +3822720Z SW Equity (Pictet Asset Management) +21429Z US Equity (Pimco) +PFG US Equity (Principal Asset Management) +115120Z NA Equity (Robeco) +1401752D US Equity (Russell Investments) +SDR LN Equity (Schroders) +GLE FP Equity (Societe Generale) +STT US Equity (State Street) +TROW US Equity (T. Rowe Price) +1324Z CN Equity (TD Securities) +TFC US Equity (Truist Wealth) +UBSG SW Equity (UBS) +UCG IM Equity (UniCredit) +5125Z US Equity (Vanguard) +WFC US Equity (Wells Fargo) +4081735Z US Equity (Wells Fargo Investment Institute) + diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/banner.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_01/banner.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5f494c4cee810282319fa8a61b42c22169c0d03a Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/modules/Module_01/banner.jpg differ diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_01/intro.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_01/intro.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..adb3f48e8e8bb7b4e6bde4d342a1c031927580c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_01/intro.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:3556c9ae693efae236d0a5ebf76070fe3770ddf3a02de2b2c10583a78efd1804 +size 729763 diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_02/Datapoint[02-01-01].txt b/pages/modules/Module_02/Datapoint[02-01-01].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..710bdfc37ade3f9e149cbb8da22599c2f60930f1 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_02/Datapoint[02-01-01].txt @@ -0,0 +1,22 @@ +#### Chinese AI Semiconductor Advancements & Products + +In March 2025, Biren Technology, a Shanghai-based GPU chip designer, unveiled a compact “all-in-one” workstation built around its latest accelerator silicon and advanced thermal management, specifically tuned to run the open-source QwQ-32B large language model. The system integrates Biren’s proprietary GPU modules, high-efficiency liquid cooling, and a simplified software stack to enable small labs and enterprises to deploy high-end inference locally without relying on foreign hardware. This launch marks Biren’s first commercial system product and demonstrates the maturing capability of domestic GPU vendors to deliver turnkey AI compute solutions. + +Alongside emerging GPU players, Alibaba’s DAMO Academy has steadily expanded China’s RISC-V ecosystem with its XuanTie family of AI-oriented processors. In March 2025, DAMO shipped the flagship XuanTie C930, a 64-bit, superscalar RISC-V chip that fuses high-performance general-purpose cores with an integrated AI-acceleration engine. The C930 is designed for data centers and edge servers, delivering both 512 GFLOPS of double-precision compute and optimized INT8 inference throughput, and is accompanied by a full software development kit under an open-source license. Shortly beforehand, in February, the Institute of Computing Technology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences together with the Beijing Institute of Open Source Chip released a complete subsystem reference for high-performance, open-source RISC-V CPUs, signaling a collaborative, research-to-production pipeline for domestic chip design teams. +In the automotive domain, Horizon Robotics—known for its vision-centric SoCs—cemented its position as a leading Chinese AI chipmaker by signing a strategic memorandum with Bosch at Auto Shanghai 2025. Under the agreement, Bosch will leverage Horizon’s next-generation driver-assistance SoCs to develop multipurpose camera modules and advanced ADAS features, ranging from collision avoidance to 360-degree situational awareness. This collaboration not only validates Horizon’s ability to meet stringent OEM safety and performance requirements but also underscores the rising competitiveness of Chinese suppliers in the global automotive semiconductor supply chain. + +#### AI Research & Next-Generation Chips + +Pushing beyond conventional architectures, a joint team from the Institute of Automation under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and Swiss firm SynSense developed “Speck,” an energy-efficient neuromorphic chip that emulates neuronal spiking and synaptic dynamics. Using asynchronous event-driven circuits, Speck achieves an idle power draw of just 0.42 mW and supports in-sensor computing tasks such as pattern recognition, anomaly detection, and real-time sensor fusion. Its novel design promises orders-of-magnitude reductions in power for always-on AI sensors in IoT, robotics, and mobile devices, bringing brain-inspired computing into commercial viability. + +On the quantum frontier, the Center for Excellence in Quantum Information and Quantum Physics at CAS delivered Xiaohong, a 504-qubit superconducting quantum processor, to Anhui-based QuantumCTek Co., Ltd. Xiaohong sets a new domestic record for qubit count and serves as a testbed for scalable quantum algorithms and quantum-classical hybrid computing. Complementing superconducting efforts, researchers at Peking University and Shanxi University demonstrated the first integrated photonic quantum chip capable of continuous-variable multipartite entanglement and cluster-state generation on a silicon photonics platform. These breakthroughs in both hardware modalities underscore China’s dual-track strategy toward achieving quantum advantage and diversified quantum-computing ecosystems. + +#### AI Web Services & Model Ecosystem + +In February 2025, Hangzhou-based AI startup DeepSeek kick-started its Open Source Week, unveiling FlashMLA, an open-source optimization toolkit for large language models. FlashMLA focuses on accelerating autoregressive decoding, streamlining memory utilization, and reducing inference latency by up to 40 percent on 8-bit quantized weights—particularly critical for real-time chatbot and text-generation applications. By publishing the code on public repositories and soliciting community contributions, DeepSeek aims to foster transparency and collective advancement in model acceleration techniques. +Shortly thereafter, in May 2025, Alibaba Cloud released Tongyi Qianwen 2.5, a next-generation commercial LLM benchmarked on par with GPT-4 Turbo, offering improved multimodal capabilities and a cloud-native inference engine. Within days, ByteDance followed with its Doubao model series, which integrates vision, text, and audio modalities for unified AIGC workflows. According to official data, 36 percent of the world’s 1,328 publicly launched generative AI models now originate from China, reflecting the nation’s rapidly growing share of the global AI model development landscape. +In late April, Alibaba’s DAMO group further extended its open-source commitment by launching Qwen3, a hybrid reasoning LLM family comprising six dense and two Mixture-of-Experts variants. Qwen3 enables dynamic switching between deep reasoning modes for complex multi-step tasks and fast-response modes for general queries. Crucially, China’s national supercomputing internet platform published an API interface for the smaller, 32 billion-parameter QwQ-32B model, democratizing access to efficient on-premise inference. Complementing this, Biren Technology introduced its all-in-one AI workstation tailored for QwQ-32B, enabling developers and enterprises to deploy advanced LLM services locally, without dependence on foreign cloud infrastructure. + +#### Summary + +China’s AI-driven semiconductor landscape is rapidly diversifying, from bespoke GPU workstations by Biren Technology and RISC-V SoCs by Alibaba DAMO to advanced neuromorphic and quantum chips by leading research institutes. On the software and service side, the proliferation of open-source toolkits, hybrid reasoning models, and accessible APIs is laying the groundwork for a robust domestic AI ecosystem that spans chip design, algorithm research, and cloud-native deployment. As Chinese firms and institutions continue to close the gap with global peers, we can expect further convergence of hardware and software innovation—propelling new applications in edge computing, autonomous systems, and next-generation AI services. diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_02/Overview.txt b/pages/modules/Module_02/Overview.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0ae841f6308fde8a61cc1363dd00f508d717c1e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_02/Overview.txt @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +AI Investment Cycle - Chinese IP and Semiconductors +--- +Image: pages/modules/Module_02/intro.jpg +US companies such as OpenAI Inc. and Alphabet Inc.‘s Google have launched AI systems for videos, images and audio and agents designed to field increasingly complex tasks on a user’s behalf. +China’s tech companies have quickly followed in their footsteps, signaling how fast these technological advances become commoditized. Despite constraints on access to US chips, Chinese companies have built AI +models and IP that are able to do more work with less computing power. They have embraced open-source standards and have been making their AI products freely available for anyone to use and adapt for their purposes +China is now flooding the global market with these platforms and as a global leader in AI their progress (aka DeepSeek) should be tracked. +--- +Image: pages/modules/Module_02/banner.jpg +Datapoint[02-01-01] +Discuss new developments in Chinese AI semiconductors, research and web services. +Who are new Chinese AI-based semiconductor manufacturers and +what new products have they launched +Restrict your search to the Chinese site news.cn +End Datapoint diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_02/banner.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_02/banner.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1f83ffc16bf4bd7b911134f8d7eded9452faa257 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_02/banner.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:c9160b931b86d0415d675e7128c58d118c4824801b219cd73ad281aed45159c4 +size 300648 diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_02/intro.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_02/intro.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..eaafcf7fbe37fc25288b326f24e213dffa6bef59 Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/modules/Module_02/intro.jpg differ diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_03/Datapoint[03-01-01].txt b/pages/modules/Module_03/Datapoint[03-01-01].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..71e7821aa9a9ecce499fb967dc041bc126b8bb1e --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_03/Datapoint[03-01-01].txt @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +#### Report on the Status of Texas Data Center Builds + +Texas’s data center market continues to expand rapidly, driven by surging demand for cloud services and AI infrastructure. Between 2023 and 2024 alone, Central Texas saw a four-fold increase in data center construction, totaling 463.5 MW of potential demand under development—making the region the second-largest data center market in the U.S. behind Northern Virginia (industryintel.com). State-wide total data center construction starts could exceed $46 billion in 2025 reflecting a nationwide boom in hyperscale facilities (news.constructconnect.com). + +#### Vantage Data Centers – Omicron Drive, San Antonio +Denver-based Vantage Data Centers has filed with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation to build a two-story, hyperscale data center at 17420 Omicron Drive on San Antonio’s far West Side. The facility will total 432,800 square feet and draw 96 MW of power, at an estimated construction cost of \$276.9 million. Construction is slated to begin in October 2025 and conclude by August 2027, with site preparation and permitting complete and no reported cost overruns or schedule changes to date, indicating the project is proceeding on time and on budget ([expressnews.com](https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/san-antonio-data-centers-vantage-development-21055301.php)). + +#### Vantage Data Centers – Frontier AI Megacampus, Shackelford County +In August 2025, Vantage Data Centers announced “Frontier” a \$25 billion 1200-acre AI campus in Shackelford County, Texas. The build will ultimately support 1.4 GW of power across ten ultra-high-density data centers, each designed for racks drawing over 250 kW. The first building is expected to be operational in the second half of 2026. Backed by a \$9.2 billion equity raise co-led by Silver Lake and DigitalBridge, the Frontier campus remains in early site development, with no public reports of cost escalations or timeline delays ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/vantage-data-centers-plans-25-billion-ai-campus-texas-2025-08-19/?utm_source=openai)). + +#### Blueprint Data Centers – Taylor Campus +Blueprint Data Centers secured rezoning in June 2025 for a three-building data center campus at 1601 MLK Jr. Blvd in Taylor, Texas. The 135,000 square foot campus will house servers for AI and high-performance computing, drawing up to 60 MW of power (30 MW secured in the initial phase). The company has committed at least $1 billion to construction and equipment over the next ten years. Initial delays arose due to Oncor’s power-capacity confirmation and a temporary restraining order filed by neighbors, which halted work until October 15, 2025, when a judge dismissed the injunction. With legal and utility issues resolved, construction is set to resume, targeting energization by 2026, and remains on budget with no further cost overruns reported ([taylorpress.net](https://www.taylorpress.net/article/10228%2Cdata-center-gets-zoning-ok-for-s1billion-project)). + +#### Blueprint Data Centers – Georgetown Facility +Blueprint’s sister site in Georgetown, Texas, received city approval in September 2024 for a 45,000 square foot, $160 million data center on a 10-acre parcel at 1201 Westinghouse Road. Designed for 25 MW of power capacity, the Georgetown DC will be delivered in two phases—12.5 MW by Q4 2026 and the remainder by early 2027. Construction is scheduled to commence imminently, with no reported setbacks or budget changes, keeping the project on track for its planned commissioning timeline ([hellogeorgetown.com](https://www.hellogeorgetown.com/coming-soon-to-georgetown/blueprint-data-centers-commits-160m-to-georgetown-site-tied-to-taylor-expansion/?utm_source=openai)). + +#### Skybox Datacenters – PowerCampus Austin (Hutto) +Dallas-based Skybox Datacenters LLC is advancing its “PowerCampus Austin” in Hutto, a six-building, 3.9 million square foot hyperscale campus on 160 acres with 600 MW of total power capacity. Building 1—a \$163 million, unspecified-square-foot facility—broke ground last year and is slated for completion by June 2025. Building 2, at 234,820 square feet and costing \$125 million, will begin construction on October 1, 2025, and finish by June 2026. Both phases remain aligned with their original schedules and budgets, with no reported cost overages or construction delays ([mysanantonio.com](https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/austin-skybox-hutto-data-center-21029501.php)). + +#### EdgeConneX – Cedar Creek Campus, Bastrop County +Virginia-based EdgeConneX is developing a four-building, \$1.44 billion data center campus (DFW33220N) at FM 535 and Wolf Lane in Cedar Creek, Bastrop County. The first phase, Building AUS02, is a two-story, 578,000 square foot facility drawing up to 96 MW of power, at a cost of \$440 million. Construction will commence in August 2025 and wrap up by June 2026. The project secured a ten-year property tax abatement in December 2024 and is proceeding on time and within its projected budget ([communityimpact.com](https://communityimpact.com/austin/bastrop-cedar-creek/development/2025/08/01/data-center-slated-for-construction-in-cedar-creek/)). + +#### Conclusion and Outlook + +Across Texas, megawatt-scale data center developments are proceeding largely on time and within budget, reflecting robust site selection, secured power agreements, and proactive permitting strategies. From Vantage’s San Antonio expansion to CyrusOne’s Bosque County campus, and from Google’s Midlothian buildout to QTS’s Fort Worth addition, these projects demonstrate Texas’s pivotal role in supporting the nation’s AI and cloud computing needs. With minimal reported delays and substantial financial backing, the state looks poised to solidify its status as a leading global data center hub—even as grid integration and sustainable power sourcing remain critical to future growth. + +Overall, Texas remains one of the fastest-growing data center markets in the United States, fueled by a deregulated power grid, robust tax incentives, and proximity to major semiconductor and tech manufacturing hubs. Projects by hyperscalers and emerging developers alike are advancing largely on schedule and within budget, with only localized regulatory or community-related hurdles briefly affecting timelines. This sustained momentum underscores Texas’s strategic role in meeting escalating global demand for cloud, AI, and high-performance computing infrastructure. + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_03/Datapoint[03-02-01].txt b/pages/modules/Module_03/Datapoint[03-02-01].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..88b6cce12478ae0f4cf5fc58e3141168f3639850 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_03/Datapoint[03-02-01].txt @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +Here are the best-available coordinates for each site and a direct Google Maps “satellite” link centered on those coordinates: + +• Vantage Data Centers – Omicron Drive, San Antonio +Address: 17420 Omicron Dr, San Antonio, TX 78245 +Coordinates: 29.41824, −98.79627 (mapquest.com) +Satellite view: https://www.google.com/maps?q=29.41824,-98.79627&z=18&t=k + +• Vantage Data Centers – Frontier AI Megacampus, Shackelford County +Location: approximately the geographic center of the 1,200-acre Frontier campus in Shackelford County, near Albany, TX +Coordinates: 32.748464194666646, −99.31633163733319 (geocod.io) +Satellite view: https://www.google.com/maps?q=32.748464194666646,-99.31633163733319&z=12&t=k + +• Blueprint Data Centers – Taylor Campus +Address: 1601 E M L K Jr Blvd, Taylor, TX 76574 +Coordinates (city center, as a proxy for the campus): 30.572371, −97.416546 (en.wikipedia.org) +Satellite view: https://www.google.com/maps?q=30.572371,-97.416546&z=15&t=k + +• Blueprint Data Centers – Georgetown Facility +Address: 1201 Westinghouse Rd, Georgetown, TX 78626 +Coordinates: 30.5842009, −97.6724894 (realmo.com) +Satellite view: https://www.google.com/maps?q=30.5842009,-97.6724894&z=18&t=k + +• Skybox Datacenters – PowerCampus Austin (Hutto) +Address: 4200 County Road 132, Hutto, TX 78634 +Approximate coordinates (based on nearby parcel): 30.5694723, −98.4784444 (heartofaustinhomes.com) +Satellite view: https://www.google.com/maps?q=30.5694723,-98.4784444&z=14&t=k + +• EdgeConneX – Cedar Creek Campus, Bastrop County +Location: NE corner of FM 535 & Wolf Lane, Cedar Creek, TX 78612 +Coordinates (community center proxy): 30.085062, −97.500933 (latitude.to) +Satellite view: https://www.google.com/maps?q=30.085062,-97.500933&z=15&t=k \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_03/Overview.txt b/pages/modules/Module_03/Overview.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2d80fc4571b8b4e2efdc0f6b8bc5431f519f59c4 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_03/Overview.txt @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +AI Investment Cycle - Data Centers +--- +Image: pages/modules/Module_03/intro.jpg[1000] +--- +Image: pages/modules/Module_03/banner.jpg +Datapoint[03-01-01] +Provide an update on the status of the construction of data centers in the state of Texas detailing: +- who is building the data center +- the amount of power requested in terms of Megawatts +- the expected cost of the data center, square footage and its current completion status +- Identify if the project is proceeding on time and on budget + or whether the project is experiencing construction delays or cost overruns +End Datapoint +--- +HTML: Texas_Datacenter_Map.html +--- +HTML: Texas_Datacenter_Vega_Gantt_Chart.html +--- +Image: pages/modules/Module_03/banner.jpg +Datapoint[03-02-01] +For each of the data centers listed find their actual geographic coordinates and provide a link based on those coordinates to a satellite image of that data center +End Datapoint +--- +Image: pages/modules/Module_03/satmap_slide.jpg + + + diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_03/Texas_Datacenter_Map.html b/pages/modules/Module_03/Texas_Datacenter_Map.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..26293b21a30d8f8fcac47707765898a0b15f94f6 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_03/Texas_Datacenter_Map.html @@ -0,0 +1,205 @@ + Texas Data Centers Map – Babylon.js + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_03/Texas_Datacenter_Vega_Gantt_Chart.html b/pages/modules/Module_03/Texas_Datacenter_Vega_Gantt_Chart.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..56e4421691f20476cd29b3bcf774226bacc6c10f --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_03/Texas_Datacenter_Vega_Gantt_Chart.html @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ + + + + +Data Center Construction Gantt Chart + + + + + + +

Data Center Construction Gantt Chart

+ +
+ + + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_03/banner.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_03/banner.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..451eb7d3503a7a9f879e3d8b2a36fe2feb99b24f --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_03/banner.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:f327ff69259f984e2f41e6e37eee43f5413e59017e39945d0e4de52467d372d8 +size 274338 diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_03/intro.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_03/intro.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b8ea7c5a81e17c2ba52302b7c48d1fce4b0b54a3 Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/modules/Module_03/intro.jpg differ diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_03/satmap.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_03/satmap.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..655e6e1030e44200915b4ef93cc5f671d25d9aa2 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_03/satmap.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:2ef0a4dd3bfae4d27da23e6267f47980106ba225340173a9d6a19bdc1cdcbf2c +size 479751 diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_03/satmap_slide.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_03/satmap_slide.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..65970a8fea8edd4ca1a2b1df09003773110bd7c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_03/satmap_slide.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:23fa86a5d5087146f1246d4951b25bb1f0c25c434381fddb1d7721483e4dcf50 +size 716748 diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_04/Datapoint[04-01-01].txt b/pages/modules/Module_04/Datapoint[04-01-01].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c9a1c4a58ec6e7b116ff615a09bd374e8723e3f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_04/Datapoint[04-01-01].txt @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +#### Recent AI Industry Transactions in 2025 + +#### Hardware and Infrastructure Deals +• Nvidia → OpenAI In September 2025 Nvidia agreed to invest up to \$100 billion in OpenAI in linked tranches of \$10 billion each, contingent on infrastructure deployment milestones. OpenAI will use that funding to purchase Nvidia’s own data-center chips, creating a feedback loop where Nvidia effectively finances the purchase of its products (reuters.com). +• AMD → OpenAI In October 2025 AMD signed a multi-year agreement to supply up to six gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs to OpenAI, commencing with a one-gigawatt deployment in late 2026. To align incentives, AMD issued OpenAI warrants for up to 160 million shares (≈10% of AMD), vesting on deployment and share-price milestones (reuters.com). +• Oracle → Nvidia Oracle committed roughly \$40 billion to purchase about 400,000 of Nvidia’s GB200 AI chips for the Abilene, Texas “Stargate” data center, part of OpenAI’s infrastructure build-out. The chips will be leased to OpenAI under a 15-year agreement (reuters.com). +• Nvidia → Intel In September 2025 Nvidia invested \$5 billion in Intel, acquiring a roughly 4% stake to co-develop next-generation data-center and PC processors integrating Nvidia GPU chiplets, reflecting a “fusion of two world-class platforms” (cnbc.com). +• Dell (via Nvidia) → xAI Bloomberg reported that Dell will sell approximately \$5 billion of servers equipped with Nvidia GB200 GPUs to Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI in 2025, enabling xAI’s Grok chatbot training (cnbc.com). +#### Cloud and Services Agreements +• OpenAI → Oracle According to multiple reports, OpenAI inked a five-year cloud computing deal with Oracle valued at about \$300 billion starting in 2027. This commitment will require around 4.5 gigawatts of power capacity and granted Oracle a record backlog of future revenue, raising concerns about counterparty risk given OpenAI’s revenues (techcrunch.com). +• Microsoft → OpenAI On October 28 2025 Microsoft and OpenAI agreed new commercial terms valuing OpenAI at \$500 billion. Microsoft’s stake increased to 27% after investing approximately \$13.8 billion, alongside a \$250 billion Azure commitment. The restructure grants OpenAI greater operational freedom while securing Microsoft’s preferred access to its models through 2032 (reuters.com). +• Microsoft → Nebius In September 2025 Nebius secured a \$17.4 billion, five-year contract from Microsoft to lease GPU infrastructure capacity from its New Jersey data center, potentially rising to \$19.4 billion. The deal was partially financed by convertible notes and an equity raise (reuters.com). +• Microsoft → CoreWeave Reuters noted that Microsoft is also a major client of CoreWeave, contracting AI compute capacity to supplement Azure services as part of its multi-cloud strategy (reuters.com). +• CoreWeave ↔ Nvidia CoreWeave expanded its partnership with Nvidia through an initial \$6.3 billion order for GPU hardware that includes a guarantee by Nvidia to purchase unsold capacity through 2032. Nvidia also holds over 5% equity in CoreWeave (reuters.com). +• Nscale ↔ Microsoft British AI hyperscaler Nscale signed an expanded deal to supply Microsoft with approximately 200,000 Nvidia GB300 GPUs across its U.S. and European data centers, in a contract estimated at up to \$14 billion (reuters.com). +• Nscale ↔ Nvidia & Aker In September 2025 Nscale raised \$1.1 billion in a Series B led by Aker ASA (9.3% stake) and backed by Nvidia (pledging up to \$500 million of chips and equity) to fund greenfield AI data centers in Europe and North America (ft.com). +• Aker/Nscale/OpenAI → Stargate Norway In July 2025 Aker ASA, Nscale, and OpenAI announced plans for a \$1 billion AI facility in Narvik, Norway, named “Stargate Norway,” to install 100,000 Nvidia GPUs powered exclusively by renewable energy (reuters.com). +#### Venture Capital in AI Startups +• OpenAI Startup Fund → Ambience Healthcare In July 2025 Ambience Healthcare raised \$243 million in Series C co-led by Oak HC/FT and a16z, with participation from the OpenAI Startup Fund among other investors to scale its ambient AI clinical documentation platform (accessnewswire.com). +• OpenAI Startup Fund → Harvey AI In June 2025 Harvey AI closed a \$300 million Series E at a \$5 billion valuation. The round was co-led by Kleiner Perkins and Coatue, with OpenAI Startup Fund participating alongside Sequoia, GV, and others (thesaasnews.com). +• Nvidia, Andreessen Horowitz → Mistral AI In September 2025 French startup Mistral AI raised €1.7 billion in Series C led by ASML (€1.3 billion) with follow-on investment from Nvidia, Andreessen Horowitz, and others to build Europe’s leading AI models (reuters.com). +• Nvidia, Intel Capital → Figure AI In September 2025 humanoid robotics developer Figure AI raised over \$1 billion in Series C at a \$39 billion valuation, with Nvidia and Intel Capital among the participants to scale its Helix software and BotQ manufacturing (reuters.com). +• Nvidia (via Trilogy of Rounds) → xAI xAI has engaged in multiple financing efforts in 2025, including a reported SPV-backed scheme where Nvidia is expected to invest up to \$2 billion in equity and lease GPUs via a special-purpose vehicle to power Musk’s “Colossus 2” supercluster (investinglive.com). + +#### Circular Financing: Similarities to the Dot-Com Era +• Vendor financing where a supplier effectively lends or subsidizes capital so customers can purchase its own products was rampant in the late 1990s telecom boom (e.g., Lucent’s \$8.1 billion and Nortel’s \$3.1 billion in customer loans) (tomtunguz.com). +• Today’s AI cycle echoes that model: Nvidia and AMD are providing OpenAI with direct investments and equity warrants, which OpenAI then uses primarily to buy GPUs from the same vendors, creating a “self-funding” loop (reuters.com). +• Oracle’s \$300 billion cloud deal with OpenAI prompted Oracle to purchase tens of billions of dollars of Nvidia chips, completing a triangle—OpenAI → Oracle → Nvidia → back to OpenAI—mirroring the circular credit flows of the dot-com telecom bubble (livemint.com). + +#### Key Differences from the Dot-Com Era +• Stronger Balance Sheets & Cash Flows: Major hyperscaler customers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) collectively generated over \$450 billion in operating cash flow in 2024, versus the leveraged CLECs of 2000; Nvidia itself had \$50 billion in annual operating cash flow when it made its OpenAI commitment (tomtunguz.com). +• Transparent Accounting & Ratings: Unlike Lucent’s later-revealed off-balance-sheet guarantees and revenue manipulation, today’s major players are audited by top firms (e.g., PwC), carry investment-grade ratings (Nvidia’s Aa3) and employ SPV structures that are disclosed under current accounting standards (tomtunguz.com). +• Real Underlying Demand: AI compute utilization constraints are widely reported, with evidence of GPU shortages and high utilization in cloud data centers, as opposed to telecom equipment sitting largely idle in 2000 (tomtunguz.com). +• Diverse Hardware Sources: OpenAI and others are diversifying across multiple chip suppliers (Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom) and building custom silicon (Microsoft’s Maia, Google’s TPUs), reducing dependence on any single vendor—unlike the near-monopoly position of Lucent and Cisco in the telecom boom (tomtunguz.com). + +#### Summary + +In summary, while AI’s financing loops carry echoes of vendor financing excesses from the dot-com telecom crash, today’s participants operate with stronger financial fundamentals, clearer accounting, and demonstrable utilization, suggesting a structurally different environment despite the superficial circularity of capital flows. diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_04/Module_04.docx b/pages/modules/Module_04/Module_04.docx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d9abc2ff691c793c821978a1a00979890cdb2b19 Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/modules/Module_04/Module_04.docx differ diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_04/Overview.txt b/pages/modules/Module_04/Overview.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..021b33ea66a6c68bbc28847cfe65184c58623a55 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_04/Overview.txt @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +AI Investment Cycle - Monetization and Capex Financing +--- +Image: pages/modules/Module_04/intro.jpg +--- +Image: pages/modules/Module_04/banner.jpg +Datapoint[04-01-01] +Provide an analysis of the image above: +- Who are the entities listed in the graph +- What deals have they done together +- How is this similar to the circular financing of the dot-com era +- How is it dissimilar (different this time) +End Datapoint diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_04/banner.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_04/banner.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d850001690642793326970ca0ff5997111b98c76 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_04/banner.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:126d5f7ece1016b07a47988d9896725e6c4e4699ae9f455703ce481d27445774 +size 153736 diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_04/intro.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_04/intro.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b48e0d54edcffc3c9e3281dcac727a22d2336a4c Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/modules/Module_04/intro.jpg differ diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_05/Datapoint[05-01-01].txt b/pages/modules/Module_05/Datapoint[05-01-01].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ae16031ca15996a631c56757921d978f3b12a14e --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_05/Datapoint[05-01-01].txt @@ -0,0 +1,33 @@ +President Donald Trump’s controversial decision to impose broad tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—a law never before used for tariffs. Trump’s move is less about trade and more about expanding presidential power, bypassing Congress and upending the balance between the branches of government. By using IEEPA, Trump avoids the usual procedural checks required by other trade laws, raising legal and constitutional concerns about exceeding presidential authority. This approach will see court-based challenges, especially since Congress—not the president—is constitutionally granted the power to levy taxes and tariffs. + +The Supreme Court’s “major questions doctrine,” which demands clear Congressional authorization for significant executive actions, may play a crucial role in the legal outcome as Trump’s action sets a precedent that future presidents, from either party, could exploit to wield broad economic powers unilaterally. Congress, although limited by political realities, could theoretically override the tariffs or restrict presidential power under IEEPA through new legislation. Trump’s overreach weakens Congress’s constitutional authority and reminds readers that the framers intentionally left taxing and spending powers with the more democratically accountable legislative branch. + +The tariffs that Trump invoked in his first term were different from those in his second term in the following ways: + +1. Legal Authority Used + +First Term: Trump used existing trade laws like the Trade Act of 1974 and the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. These laws require investigations, procedural steps, and usually some consultation with Congress or federal agencies before imposing tariffs. + +Second Term: Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which had never before been used to impose tariffs. IEEPA is generally used for sanctions, not trade measures, and has fewer procedural requirements and safeguards. + +2. Procedural Requirements + +First Term: The statutes Trump used required his administration to conduct investigations (through bodies like the International Trade Commission or the Department of Commerce) and to make specific findings (such as proving certain imports cause serious injury to domestic industry). These often take months and involve oversight or input from Congress. + +Second Term: The IEEPA lets the president act unilaterally and quickly—there are fewer checks, no requirements for investigations or findings, and little to no Congressional involvement. Trump justified the tariffs by citing broad national security concerns (like the opioid crisis and illegal immigration). + +3. Scope and Precedent + +First Term: The tariffs were mostly targeted and justified under established trade law processes and were more narrowly focused on protecting specific industries or addressing unfair trade practices. + +Second Term: The IEEPA tariffs were broader in scope, targeting whole countries and potentially many sectors, and marked an unprecedented stretch of presidential power into trade policy. + +4. Constitutional Concerns + +First Term: The process followed existing statutes and precedent, with the president acting under clearly delegated Congressional authority. + +Second Term: Using IEEPA raises major constitutional issues—Congress is supposed to control taxing and spending, and the IEEPA does not explicitly grant tariff or taxing power, making this a possible overreach of executive authority. + +Summary: + +First-term tariffs used standard trade laws with safeguards and Congressional input; second-term tariffs broke new ground by relying on IEEPA, enabling Trump to bypass those checks and claim sweeping unilateral power over trade with little precedent and high constitutional risk. diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_05/Datapoint[05-02-01].txt b/pages/modules/Module_05/Datapoint[05-02-01].txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..fa421ab619ed8efa7084a8528e0bdfabcf886a3b --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_05/Datapoint[05-02-01].txt @@ -0,0 +1,56 @@ +Here is a structured analysis of why the Supreme Court might decide in favor of the administration’s use of IEEPA-based tariffs, or against it. I’ll outline the core legal theories, the principal counterarguments, and the likely doctrinal battlegrounds the Court would weigh. I’ll also provide a brief chronology with concrete dates drawn from contemporaneous reporting and official summaries to ground the discussion. + +Executive summary + +The central dispute is whether the President may impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a tool to regulate imports in response to national emergencies, and whether doing so runs afoul of the Constitution’s allocation of tariff/commerce power or the Supreme Court’s “major questions” doctrine. +Proponents (the administration) tend to emphasize broad executive power in foreign affairs, the text of IEEPA’s emergency powers to regulate importation, and international exigencies that justify flexible, regressive economic tools in the national interest. +Opponents emphasize that IEEPA does not expressly authorize tariffs, that broad delegations raise nondelegation concerns, and that the Court should apply the major questions doctrine to require explicit congressional authorization for such far-reaching economic measures. +The Court’s ultimate disposition would hinge on how it reads IEEPA’s text in the foreign-affairs context, how it treats major questions in this domain, and whether it construes IEEPA as authorizing only limited, narrowly tailored emergency actions or as a general license for sweeping tariff policy. +In favor of the administration’s position (why the Court might uphold IEEPA-based tariffs) + +Textual argument: IEEPA authorizes the President to regulate importation in national emergencies and to deal with unusual and extraordinary threats. If read liberally, the phrase “to regulate importation” could encompass regulatory tariffs as a direct instrument of that regulation, especially in a declared national emergency involving foreign commerce and national security. In argument summaries, counsel for the government contended that tariffs are a traditional and direct method of regulating importation and thus fall within IEEPA’s ambit. This textual reading is central to the government’s position in the case and is defended by proponents who emphasize the statutory purpose of IEEPA to enable rapid executive action during emergencies. (fedcircuitblog.com) +Foreign-affairs deference and Article II powers: Several outlets and legal commentators have argued that foreign-affairs contexts historically invite greater executive deference, and that the President operates with inherent Article II authority in international crises. In this view, the Court should treat IEEPA as part of the President’s foreign-affairs toolkit, not as a domestic regulatory regime, and thus hesitate to apply domestic doctrine (like major questions) that would unduly constrain presidential action in emergencies. Justices and commentators have signaled skepticism about applying the major questions doctrine to foreign policy contexts. (washingtonpost.com) +Limited scope and regulatory nature of tariffs: The government and its allies sometimes argue that “regulatory tariffs” imposed under IEEPA are different from pure revenue-raising taxes; they could be seen as tools to regulate foreign commerce rather than to raise revenue, which could influence how the Court views delegation and limits. Supporters frame tariffs under IEEPA as necessary to “regulate importation” in an emergency and as a matter of national security/economy health, not as ordinary taxation. (fedcircuitblog.com) +Case law posture and doctrinal trajectory: In some analyses, the Court’s prior decisions in related foreign-affairs contexts have shown a willingness to give the executive flexibility, particularly when Congress has vested broad powers in the President to address international crises. Advocates for the administration point to those strands in the Court’s jurisprudence as supportive of a more permissive reading of IEEPA’s emergency powers when foreign policy and national security are at stake. (washingtonpost.com) +Pragmatic policy consequences (if upheld): If the Court upholds IEEPA-based tariffs, it could give the executive branch a potent, flexible tool to counter perceived inequities in global trade, supply chain vulnerabilities, or security threats, with the caveat that Congress could later refine or constrain this tool via new legislation. This is the frame promoted by some observers who point to ongoing concerns about trade deficits, national security, and supply-chain resilience as drivers of executive action. (washingtonpost.com) +In favor of striking down IEEPA-based tariffs (why the Court might rule against the administration) + +Major questions doctrine: A central and growing theme in recent Supreme Court jurisprudence is the major questions doctrine—requiring clear congressional authorization for actions with enormous economic or political significance. Tariffs that broadly regulate foreign commerce could be viewed as a “major question” that the statute does not expressly authorize. Several high-profile outlets emphasize that the Court has been skeptical of sweeping executive power in areas like taxation or regulatory regimes without explicit congressional grant. The ongoing judicial debate in the case has focused on whether IEEPA can be stretched to cover tariffs and whether such expansion would violate the major questions principle. (scotusblog.com) +Statutory text and delegation concerns (nondelegation): The argument that IEEPA provides an unbounded delegation to the President is countered by Federal Circuit and other analyses that stress the absence of an intelligible principle governing tariff-rate setting under IEEPA and the risk that broad delegations violate nondelegation principles. The Court could align with the lower courts by insisting on a more explicit congressional grant or a narrower interpretation of “regulate importation” that does not reach broad tariff powers. The August 2025 Federal Circuit en banc decision and CRS summaries illustrate these concerns. (congress.gov) +Explicit constitutional limits on tariff power: The Constitution assigns tariff authority primarily to Congress. If IEEPA is read as providing blanket authority to levy broad, global tariffs, the Court could treat that as an unconstitutional delegation or as a misalignment with the Constitution’s allocation of power to legislate tariffs. Jurists and commentators have stressed the risk that broad emergency powers could supplant Congress’s tariff and revenue-raising powers. (congress.gov) +Practical and economic concerns: A ruling striking down the IEEPA-based tariffs would reduce market disruption and the risk of a broad trade war, potentially stabilizing prices for consumers and supply chains. Trade-law practitioners and commentators have highlighted the instability created by sweeping emergency tariffs and the importance of legislative clarity to avoid unintended economic harm. (foleyhoag.com) +Lower court precedent and remand dynamics: The Court of International Trade and the Federal Circuit have signaled, in several analyses and summaries, that IEEPA does not authorize the kind of universal or worldwide tariffs the administration attempted to impose, reinforcing a judicial preference for limiting executive power absent explicit congressional authorization. If the Supreme Court adopts that line, it would align with those lower-court decisions and require Congress to act to authorize or constrain tariffs in the future. (reuters.com) +Key doctrinal battlegrounds the Court is weighing + +Textual versus purposive reading of IEEPA: Is “regulate importation” (in an emergency) broad enough to include tariffs, or is it limited to sanctions, controls on transactions, or asset freezes? The government’s textual argument treats tariffs as a classic tool of import regulation in emergencies, while the opposite view emphasizes ambiguity and the absence of an explicit tariff power in IEEPA. (fedcircuitblog.com) +Major questions doctrine and foreign affairs: Does the Court apply the major questions doctrine with the same vigor in foreign affairs as in domestic regulatory regimes? Some commentary argues foreign affairs contexts may warrant greater executive deference, while others warn that the doctrine should apply robustly to avoid transforming emergency powers into a constitutional end-run around Congress. The debate is central to the oral-argument stage and subsequent decision. (washingtonpost.com) +Nondelegation concerns: If the Court finds IEEPA’s delegation too open-ended, it could require a more specific intelligible principle or a narrower scope of action. The Federal Circuit’s reasoning and CRS summaries provide a roadmap of how courts might construe the delegation’s boundaries. (congress.gov) +Franchise of Congress in tariff policy: Even if IEEPA could accommodate some regulatory tools, the Court might remind that Congress retains the core authority to set tariffs, and any executive action beyond narrow emergency powers would demand a legislative grant or a carefully tailored statutory framework. The constitutional and statutory frame here is a critical line of analysis. (reuters.com) +Concrete dates and timeline to ground the discussion (as of December 16, 2025) + +April 2, 2025: The President invoked an emergency under IEEPA to impose tariffs, including worldwide and “trafficking” tariffs, in response to claims about national emergency threats posed by drug trafficking and trade imbalances. This marks the start of the legal challenges. (congress.gov) +May 28, 2025: The Court of International Trade granted summary judgment striking down key IEEPA-based tariffs, holding that IEEPA does not authorize the challenged measures and that broad tariffs exceed presidential authority. The order permanently enjoined enforcement of the challenged tariffs. (reuters.com) +August 29, 2025: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, sitting en banc, affirmed the CIT’s decision on the merits, reinforcing the view that IEEPA does not authorize the trafficking or worldwide tariffs in question (with some opinions separately addressing broader questions about the delegation). This set the stage for Supreme Court review. (congress.gov) +November 5, 2025: Supreme Court oral arguments focused on the legality of IEEPA-based tariffs, with justices probing the government’s textual readings and the applicability of the major questions doctrine in this foreign-affairs context. The coverage highlighted significant skepticism from several justices about unlimited executive tariff power. (washingtonpost.com) +December 2025 onwards: Media and policy observers continued to analyze the Court’s potential disposition, with reports noting that the Court’s decision could have broad implications for presidential authority over trade and for potential refunds or continued enforcement under alternate authorities. (reuters.com) +Bottom-line assessment (what a decision could mean and the sentiment around it) + +If the Court rules in favor of the administration, it would be a watershed for executive power in economic policy, broadening the scope of IEEPA to include tariffs as a regulatory tool and signaling greater deference to presidential decisions in foreign-affairs emergencies. It would likely provoke a legislative response from Congress to clarify or constrain IEEPA’s provisions for tariffs going forward. Some supporters view this as a necessary tool for national security and economic resilience; opponents view it as an unacceptable concentration of power with potential for broad, unintended consequences. (washingtonpost.com) +If the Court rules against the administration, it would reinforce constitutional limits on executive tariff authority, preserve Congress’s tariff power, and heighten the need for explicit statutory authorization or narrowly tailored emergency measures. It would likely prompt the executive to seek congressional action to craft a clear framework for any future use of IEEPA or alternative authorities and could reduce the risk of a sweeping, uncertain tariff regime. The lower-court decisions and major-doctrine-era discussions cited by multiple outlets suggest a real judicial appetite to constrain unilateral executive action in this area. (congress.gov) +Overall sentiment in the discourse surrounding this issue has trended toward caution about expanding presidential power in economic policy through IEEPA, with a real appetite on the Court to require clearer congressional authorization for major economic actions. The nature of the foreign-affairs context and the potential for broad domestic economic impact make this a high-stakes constitutional and statutory question. (washingtonpost.com) +If you’d like, I can tailor this analysis to a specific hypothetical ruling (e.g., “the Court narrowly upholds IEEPA’s regulatory scope but rejects wholesale tariff authority”) and map out how the Court would structure its opinion, which justices might join which strands, and what the likely legislative consequences would be. I can also pull additional primary sources (statutory text of IEEPA, the Court of International Trade opinion, and the Federal Circuit en banc opinion) to deepen the analytic framework. + +References and sources (selected) + +Text and statutory context: Congressional Research Service briefing on CIT/V.O.S. Selections v. Trump and related IEEPA cases, including the 2025 en banc/May 2025 rulings and the Trade Act constraints. (congress.gov) +Lower court developments: Reuters reporting on May 28, 2025, and August 29, 2025, developments; Citations to the CIT/Federal Circuit line of decisions. (reuters.com) +Supreme Court oral arguments and doctrinal framing: Washington Post coverage of November 5, 2025 arguments; SCOTUSBlog argument recaps; Al Jazeera coverage of the arguments; and The Washington Post’s broader analysis of the major questions doctrine as it relates to foreign-affairs contexts. (washingtonpost.com) +Current-events context and policy commentary: Reuters coverage (December 10, 2025) on potential remedies if tariffs are struck down; Wall Street Journal and other outlets tracking market and industry responses to the arguments and anticipated rulings. (reuters.com) +Note on dates + +The timeline above reflects concrete, dated events relevant to the IEEPA-tariffs litigation as published in late 2025. Given the rapidly evolving nature of this litigation, if you’d like, I can update this with the latest Court ruling text or later commentary as soon as it’s available. For reference, the current date is December 16, 2025. +Sentiment around the topic + +The prevailing sentiment among legal observers and policy analysts is cautious and skeptical about broad, uncodified executive tariff power under IEEPA. While there is recognition of the President’s foreign-affairs leverage in emergencies, there is strong pressure to anchor any such authority in explicit congressional authorization and to avoid conflating regulatory tools with revenue-raising taxation. The coming Supreme Court decision (or its final articulation) is likely to be framed as a constitutional check on emergency powers, with significant policy and economic implications regardless of the outcome. (washingtonpost.com) +If you want, I can synthesize this into a one-page briefing with a concise “pros and cons” table and a short reading of how the decision could affect specific stakeholders (importers, consumers, state governments, and federal agencies). + diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_05/Overview.txt b/pages/modules/Module_05/Overview.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..040b545863114c029bd8edec423ab43a66fc3ade --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_05/Overview.txt @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +Economics - Tariff Analysis +--- +Image: pages/modules/Module_05/intro.jpg +--- +Datapoint[05-01-01] +Provide an analysis of the tariffs used in DJT's first term in contrast to the IEEPA-based tariffs proposed in the second term +How has IEEPA been implemented with tariffs in the history of the Act +End Datapoint +--- +Datapoint[05-02-01] +Provide an analysis why the Supreme Court would decide in favour of the administration's use of IEEPA-based tariffs or against. +End Datapoint diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_05/intro.jpg b/pages/modules/Module_05/intro.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4fcab2616bed2ee36db7cbe7a29726d3d4356971 Binary files /dev/null and b/pages/modules/Module_05/intro.jpg differ diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_06/Overview.txt b/pages/modules/Module_06/Overview.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bdce405f0b74fde81e03842e2ae127ba3d4af061 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_06/Overview.txt @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +Title +--- +#### Blank Page +--- +#### Last Page diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_07/Overview.txt b/pages/modules/Module_07/Overview.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bdce405f0b74fde81e03842e2ae127ba3d4af061 --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Module_07/Overview.txt @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +Title +--- +#### Blank Page +--- +#### Last Page diff --git a/pages/modules/Module_08/Overview.txt 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0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..084ddbdc204d4139a0edfc655c3508dc629629af --- /dev/null +++ b/pages/modules/Reset_Overview.bat @@ -0,0 +1,22 @@ +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_01 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_02 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_03 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_04 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_05 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_06 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_07 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_08 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_09 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_10 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_11 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_12 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_13 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_14 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_15 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_16 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_17 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_18 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_19 +copy overview.txt c:.\Module_20 +copy overview.txt c:.\Overview +copy overview.txt c:.\Bonus \ No newline at end of file