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Update app.py
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app.py
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#
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"""
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Japan-scale simultaneous market clearing with inter-area transmission (10 areas),
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realistic national scale (capacities, intertie ATCs), and time-varying inputs.
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- Areas: Hokkaido, Tohoku, Tokyo, Chubu, Hokuriku, Kansai, Chugoku, Shikoku, Kyushu, Okinawa
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- Network: directional interties with OCCTO/REI-based operating capacities (MW)
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- Energy + upward reserve co-optimization (LP)
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- Time-varying: fuel prices (via CSV or synthesized), FX, nuclear var cost, reserve ratio, VOLL
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- Unit-level random fleet, calibrated to national installed capacity by fuel (FY2022 JEPIC)
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- LMP = dual of area energy balance (JPY/MWh)
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- Reserve price = dual of area reserve requirement (JPY/MW)
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- Robust timestamp parsing for data.json (format='mixed')
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Run:
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streamlit run jp_market_model_network.py
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Required data.json (national CF profiles):
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{
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"solar": {"x": [...], "y": [...]},
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"onshore_wind": {"x": [...], "y": [...]},
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"offshore_wind": {"x": [...], "y": [...]},
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"river": {"x": [...], "y": [...]},
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"demand": {"x": [...], "y": [...]} # demand hourly capacity factor (0-1)
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}
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Optional CSV upload (time-varying overrides; header row; Time column required):
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Time,usd_jpy,lng_usd_per_mmbtu,coal_usd_per_ton,oil_usd_per_bbl,nuclear_var_jpy_per_mwh,reserve_ratio,voll
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Note: All variables are local; functions include English docstrings and comments.
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"""
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import json
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from io import StringIO
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from typing import Dict, List, Tuple
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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import pulp
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import plotly.express as px
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import plotly.graph_objs as go
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import
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# Robust time-series loader
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# -----------------------------
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def load_timeseries():
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"""
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Robustly load hourly time-series from data.json and parse timestamps.
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What this does
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--------------
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- Strip stray whitespace/newlines from timestamp strings in 'x'.
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- Parse timestamps with format='mixed' (handles ISO/offset/Z).
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- Coerce failures to NaT; drop those rows consistently.
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Columns include '<key> hourly capacity factor'.
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"""
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if not data_local:
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raise ValueError("data.json is empty")
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first_key_local = next(iter(data_local))
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raw_times = data_local[first_key_local].get("x", [])
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if not raw_times:
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raise ValueError("data.json has no 'x' timeline")
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cleaned = []
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for v in raw_times:
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if isinstance(v, str):
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s = (
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v.replace("
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", "").replace("
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", "").replace(" ", " ")
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.replace(" ", " ").strip()
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)
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cleaned.append(s if s != "" else np.nan)
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else:
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cleaned.append(v)
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t_parsed = pd.to_datetime(cleaned, format="mixed", errors="coerce", utc=True)
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try:
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t_parsed = t_parsed.tz_convert("Asia/Tokyo").tz_localize(None)
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except Exception:
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try:
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t_parsed = t_parsed.tz_localize(None)
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except Exception:
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pass
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n = len(cleaned)
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df = pd.DataFrame({"Time": t_parsed})
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for k, v in data_local.items():
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if isinstance(v, dict) and "y" in v:
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ser = pd.Series(v["y"]).reindex(range(n))
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ser = pd.to_numeric(ser, errors="coerce")
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df[f"{k} hourly capacity factor"] = ser
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df = df[df["Time"].notna()].copy()
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for c in df.columns:
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if c != "Time":
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df[c] = df[c].fillna(0.0).clip(lower=0.0)
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df = df.sort_values("Time").drop_duplicates(subset=["Time"]).set_index("Time")
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return df
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# -----------------------------
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# CSV overrides (time-varying)
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# -----------------------------
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def load_overrides_csv(file_obj, index_like):
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"""
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Read optional CSV with time-varying overrides and align to target index.
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Parameters
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----------
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file_obj : UploadedFile or None
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index_like : pandas.DatetimeIndex to reindex on
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Returns
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-------
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Columns subset of:
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['usd_jpy','lng_usd_per_mmbtu','coal_usd_per_ton','oil_usd_per_bbl',
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'nuclear_var_jpy_per_mwh','reserve_ratio','voll']
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Indexed to index_like with forward-fill then back-fill.
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"""
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return None
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df_local = pd.read_csv(file_obj)
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if "Time" not in df_local.columns:
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raise ValueError("Override CSV must contain 'Time' column.")
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df_local["Time"] = pd.to_datetime(df_local["Time"], format="mixed", errors="coerce", utc=True)
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try:
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df_local["Time"] = df_local["Time"].dt.tz_convert("Asia/Tokyo").dt.tz_localize(None)
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except Exception:
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try:
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df_local["Time"] = df_local["Time"].dt.tz_localize(None)
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except Exception:
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pass
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df_local = df_local.set_index("Time").sort_index()
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cols_local = ['usd_jpy','lng_usd_per_mmbtu','coal_usd_per_ton','oil_usd_per_bbl',
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'nuclear_var_jpy_per_mwh','reserve_ratio','voll']
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df_local = df_local[[c for c in cols_local if c in df_local.columns]]
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df_local = df_local.reindex(index_like).ffill().bfill()
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return df_local
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# -----------------------------
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# Fuel price converters
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# -----------------------------
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def jpy_per_gj_series(usd_jpy_ser, lng_usd_per_mmbtu_ser, coal_usd_per_ton_ser, oil_usd_per_bbl_ser):
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"""Convert price series to JPY/GJ series.
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Assumptions
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-----------
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1 MMBtu = 1.055056 GJ, 1 bbl ≈ 6.12 GJ, coal ≈ 25.12 GJ/ton.
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"""
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mmbtu_to_gj = 1.055056
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bbl_to_gj = 6.12
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coal_gj_per_ton = 25.12
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gas_usd_per_gj = lng_usd_per_mmbtu_ser / mmbtu_to_gj
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coal_usd_per_gj = coal_usd_per_ton_ser / coal_gj_per_ton
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oil_usd_per_gj = oil_usd_per_bbl_ser / bbl_to_gj
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return {
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"lng": (gas_usd_per_gj * usd_jpy_ser).astype(float),
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"coal": (coal_usd_per_gj * usd_jpy_ser).astype(float),
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"oil": (oil_usd_per_gj * usd_jpy_ser).astype(float),
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}
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# -----------------------------
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# National scale targets (FY2022 JEPIC)
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# -----------------------------
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def capacity_targets_gw():
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"""Return national installed capacity targets by technology (GW).
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Targets reflect FY2022 totals (JEPIC 2024) and split hydro into
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conventional 'river' (≈21.8 GW) + omit pumped storage for this LP.
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"""
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targets = {
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"lng": 79.1, # GW
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"coal": 50.7,
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"oil": 21.6,
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"nuclear": 33.1,
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"river": 21.8, # conventional hydro only
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"solar": 70.1,
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"onshore_wind": 4.8, # split 5.3 GW total wind approx.
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"offshore_wind": 0.5,
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}
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return targets
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FY2022: energy ≈ 866.5 TWh; peak 3-day avg ≈ 160.5 GW (JEPIC 2024).
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"""
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return {"energy_TWh": 866.5, "peak_GW": 160.5}
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# -----------------------------
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def interties_operating_caps_mw():
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"""Directional inter-area operating capacities (MW) based on OCCTO/REI.
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"""
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caps[(a, b)] = float(mw)
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# Hokkaido <-> Tohoku (HVDC): 0.6-0.9 GW; use 900 MW each way (FY2024)
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set_cap("Hokkaido", "Tohoku", 900.0)
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set_cap("Tohoku", "Hokkaido", 900.0)
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# Tohoku <-> Tokyo: To Tokyo 5,550 MW; To Tohoku 2,360 MW (FY2024)
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set_cap("Tohoku", "Tokyo", 5550.0)
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set_cap("Tokyo", "Tohoku", 2360.0)
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# Tokyo <-> Chubu (50/60Hz converters): 2,100 MW both ways (FY2024)
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set_cap("Tokyo", "Chubu", 2100.0)
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set_cap("Chubu", "Tokyo", 2100.0)
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# Chubu <-> Kansai: To Chubu 2,500 MW; To Kansai 1,340 MW (FY2024)
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set_cap("Kansai", "Chubu", 2500.0)
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set_cap("Chubu", "Kansai", 1340.0)
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# Hokuriku <-> Kansai: To Kansai 1,900 MW; To Hokuriku 1,500 MW
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set_cap("Hokuriku", "Kansai", 1900.0)
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set_cap("Kansai", "Hokuriku", 1500.0)
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# Hokuriku <-> Chubu: approximate 300 MW both ways
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set_cap("Hokuriku", "Chubu", 300.0)
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set_cap("Chubu", "Hokuriku", 300.0)
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# Kansai <-> Chugoku: To Kansai 4,550 MW; To Chugoku 2,780 MW
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set_cap("Chugoku", "Kansai", 4550.0)
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set_cap("Kansai", "Chugoku", 2780.0)
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# Kansai <-> Shikoku: 1,400 MW both ways
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set_cap("Kansai", "Shikoku", 1400.0)
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set_cap("Shikoku", "Kansai", 1400.0)
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# Chugoku <-> Shikoku: 1,200 MW both ways
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set_cap("Chugoku", "Shikoku", 1200.0)
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set_cap("Shikoku", "Chugoku", 1200.0)
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# Chugoku <-> Kyushu: To Chugoku 2,780 MW; To Kyushu 230 MW (Kanmon)
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set_cap("Kyushu", "Chugoku", 2780.0)
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set_cap("Chugoku", "Kyushu", 230.0)
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# Okinawa isolated: no ties
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return caps
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# -----------------------------
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# Fleet generation and calibration
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# -----------------------------
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def generate_fleet(regions_list: List[str], rng_obj: np.random.Generator,
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counts_cfg: Dict[Tuple[str, str], int],
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caps_cfg: Dict[str, Tuple[float, float]],
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hr_cfg: Dict[str, Tuple[float, float]],
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min_frac_cfg: Dict[str, Tuple[float, float]],
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ren_caps_cfg: Dict[str, Tuple[float, float]]):
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"""Generate unit-level fleet with random parameters within ranges.
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Returns
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-------
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pandas.DataFrame
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['unit_id','region','tech','fuel','cap_MW','hr_GJ_per_MWh','min_frac','is_renew','cf_key']
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"""
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rows_local = []
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uid_local = 0
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# Thermal & Nuclear
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for r_loc in regions_list:
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for fuel_loc in ["lng", "coal", "oil", "nuclear"]:
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n_units = int(counts_cfg[(r_loc, fuel_loc)])
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cap_lo, cap_hi = caps_cfg[fuel_loc]
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hr_lo, hr_hi = hr_cfg.get(fuel_loc, (np.nan, np.nan))
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min_lo, min_hi = min_frac_cfg[fuel_loc]
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for _ in range(n_units):
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cap_val = rng_obj.uniform(cap_lo, cap_hi)
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hr_val = rng_obj.uniform(hr_lo, hr_hi) if fuel_loc != "nuclear" else np.nan
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min_frac_val = rng_obj.uniform(min_lo, min_hi)
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rows_local.append({
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"unit_id": f"U{uid_local}",
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"region": r_loc,
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"tech": fuel_loc,
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"fuel": fuel_loc,
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"cap_MW": float(cap_val),
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"hr_GJ_per_MWh": (float(hr_val) if fuel_loc != "nuclear" else np.nan),
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"min_frac": float(min_frac_val),
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"is_renew": False,
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"cf_key": None
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})
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uid_local += 1
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# Renewables
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for r_loc in regions_list:
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for ren_key, cf_key in [("solar", "solar"), ("onshore_wind", "onshore_wind"),
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("offshore_wind", "offshore_wind"), ("river", "river")]:
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n_units = int(counts_cfg[(r_loc, ren_key)])
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cap_lo, cap_hi = ren_caps_cfg[ren_key]
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for _ in range(n_units):
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cap_val = rng_obj.uniform(cap_lo, cap_hi)
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rows_local.append({
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"unit_id": f"U{uid_local}",
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"region": r_loc,
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"tech": ren_key,
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"fuel": None,
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"cap_MW": float(cap_val),
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"hr_GJ_per_MWh": np.nan,
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"min_frac": 0.0,
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"is_renew": True,
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"cf_key": f"{cf_key} hourly capacity factor"
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})
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uid_local += 1
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return pd.DataFrame(rows_local)
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def calibrate_capacity_to_targets(df_units: pd.DataFrame, targets_gw: Dict[str, float]):
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"""Scale unit capacities per technology so that totals match national targets.
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Parameters
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----------
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-------
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pandas.DataFrame
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New DataFrame with cap_MW scaled per technology group.
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"""
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df_local = df_units.copy()
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techs_all = ["lng","coal","oil","nuclear","river","solar","onshore_wind","offshore_wind"]
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for tech in techs_all:
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mask = (df_local["tech"] == tech)
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total_now = df_local.loc[mask, "cap_MW"].sum()
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total_target_mw = targets_gw.get(tech, 0.0) * 1000.0
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if total_now > 0.0 and total_target_mw > 0.0:
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scale = total_target_mw / total_now
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df_local.loc[mask, "cap_MW"] *= scale
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return df_local
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# -----------------------------
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# Availability (Markov outages)
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# -----------------------------
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def generate_availability(df_units: pd.DataFrame, T: int, rng_obj: np.random.Generator,
|
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-
for_map: Dict[str, float], mean_down_map: Dict[str, float]):
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"""Generate unit availability A[u,t] ∈ {0,1} using a 2-state Markov chain per unit.
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|
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Steady-state OFF fraction = FOR.
|
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Given mean down duration D_off, set p_off_on = 1/D_off; then p_on_off = FOR * p_off_on / (1-FOR).
|
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Returns
|
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-------
|
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dict
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"""
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|
| 479 |
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|
| 480 |
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|
| 481 |
-
national_demand_mw = scale_national_demand(ts_df_slice, energy_peak["energy_TWh"]) # MW
|
| 482 |
-
demand = {r: national_demand_mw * float(demand_shares_map[r]) for r in regions_list}
|
| 483 |
-
|
| 484 |
-
# Prepare price series JPY/GJ and others
|
| 485 |
-
p_gj = {
|
| 486 |
-
"lng": price_jpy_per_gj_ser_map["lng"].reindex(times).astype(float).values,
|
| 487 |
-
"coal": price_jpy_per_gj_ser_map["coal"].reindex(times).astype(float).values,
|
| 488 |
-
"oil": price_jpy_per_gj_ser_map["oil"].reindex(times).astype(float).values,
|
| 489 |
}
|
| 490 |
-
nuc_vc = nuclear_varcost_jpy_per_mwh_ser.reindex(times).astype(float).values
|
| 491 |
-
rr = reserve_ratio_ser.reindex(times).astype(float).values
|
| 492 |
-
voll = voll_ser.reindex(times).astype(float).values
|
| 493 |
-
|
| 494 |
-
# Build intertie lists
|
| 495 |
-
edges = list(intertie_caps_mw.keys())
|
| 496 |
-
edges_by_from = {r: [] for r in regions_list}
|
| 497 |
-
edges_by_to = {r: [] for r in regions_list}
|
| 498 |
-
for (i_name, j_name), cap_val in intertie_caps_mw.items():
|
| 499 |
-
edges_by_from[i_name].append((i_name, j_name))
|
| 500 |
-
edges_by_to[j_name].append((i_name, j_name))
|
| 501 |
-
|
| 502 |
-
# Model
|
| 503 |
-
mdl = pulp.LpProblem("CoOptim_Energy_Reserve_Network", pulp.LpMinimize)
|
| 504 |
-
|
| 505 |
-
# Index helpers
|
| 506 |
-
units_by_region = {r: df_units[df_units["region"] == r].index.tolist() for r in regions_list}
|
| 507 |
-
|
| 508 |
-
# Variables
|
| 509 |
-
g = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("g", ((int(u), int(t)) for u in df_units.index for t in range(T)), lowBound=0)
|
| 510 |
-
r_up = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("r", ((int(u), int(t)) for u in df_units.index for t in range(T)), lowBound=0)
|
| 511 |
-
shed = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("shed", ((r, int(t)) for r in regions_list for t in range(T)), lowBound=0)
|
| 512 |
-
spill = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("spill", ((r, int(t)) for r in regions_list for t in range(T)), lowBound=0)
|
| 513 |
-
f = pulp.LpVariable.dicts(
|
| 514 |
-
"f", (((i, j), int(t)) for (i, j) in edges for t in range(T)), lowBound=0
|
| 515 |
-
)
|
| 516 |
|
| 517 |
-
|
| 518 |
-
|
| 519 |
-
|
| 520 |
-
|
| 521 |
-
|
| 522 |
-
hr_u = float(row_u["hr_GJ_per_MWh"]) if fuel_u in ["lng","coal","oil"] else 0.0
|
| 523 |
-
tech_u = row_u["tech"]
|
| 524 |
-
vom_u = float(vom_adders_map.get(tech_u, 0.0))
|
| 525 |
-
for t in range(T):
|
| 526 |
-
if row_u["is_renew"]:
|
| 527 |
-
# Give small variable O&M to renewables to avoid price pinning at 0
|
| 528 |
-
vc_ut = vom_u
|
| 529 |
-
elif fuel_u == "nuclear":
|
| 530 |
-
vc_ut = float(nuc_vc[t]) + vom_u
|
| 531 |
-
else:
|
| 532 |
-
vc_ut = float(p_gj[fuel_u][t]) * hr_u + vom_u
|
| 533 |
-
obj_terms.append(vc_ut * g[(int(u), int(t))])
|
| 534 |
-
for r in regions_list:
|
| 535 |
-
for t in range(T):
|
| 536 |
-
obj_terms.append(voll[t] * shed[(r, int(t))])
|
| 537 |
-
obj_terms.append(spill_penalty * spill[(r, int(t))])
|
| 538 |
-
mdl += pulp.lpSum(obj_terms)
|
| 539 |
-
|
| 540 |
-
# Constraints: unit limits and ramps
|
| 541 |
-
for u in df_units.index:
|
| 542 |
-
row_u = df_units.loc[u]
|
| 543 |
-
cap_u = float(row_u["cap_MW"])
|
| 544 |
-
min_frac = float(row_u["min_frac"])
|
| 545 |
-
fuel_u = row_u["fuel"] if not row_u["is_renew"] else None
|
| 546 |
-
for t in range(T):
|
| 547 |
-
if row_u["is_renew"]:
|
| 548 |
-
cf_col = row_u["cf_key"]
|
| 549 |
-
cf_val = float(ts_df_slice.iloc[t][cf_col])
|
| 550 |
-
mdl += g[(int(u), int(t))] <= cap_u * cf_val, f"RenCap_{u}_{t}"
|
| 551 |
-
mdl += r_up[(int(u), int(t))] == 0.0, f"RenNoReserve_{u}_{t}"
|
| 552 |
-
else:
|
| 553 |
-
A_ut = float(availability_map[(int(u), t)])
|
| 554 |
-
mdl += g[(int(u), int(t))] <= A_ut * cap_u, f"Cap_{u}_{t}"
|
| 555 |
-
mdl += g[(int(u), int(t))] >= min_frac * A_ut * cap_u, f"MinOut_{u}_{t}"
|
| 556 |
-
mdl += r_up[(int(u), int(t))] <= A_ut * cap_u - g[(int(u), int(t))], f"ReserveHeadroom_{u}_{t}"
|
| 557 |
-
if t > 0:
|
| 558 |
-
A_prev = float(availability_map[(int(u), t - 1)])
|
| 559 |
-
RU = float(ramp_up_frac_map[fuel_u]) * cap_u
|
| 560 |
-
RD = float(ramp_down_frac_map[fuel_u]) * cap_u
|
| 561 |
-
mdl += (g[(int(u), int(t))] - g[(int(u), int(t - 1))]
|
| 562 |
-
<= RU + cap_u * (1.0 - A_ut)), f"RampUp_{u}_{t}"
|
| 563 |
-
mdl += (g[(int(u), int(t - 1))] - g[(int(u), int(t))]
|
| 564 |
-
<= RD + cap_u * (1.0 - A_prev)), f"RampDn_{u}_{t}"
|
| 565 |
-
|
| 566 |
-
# Intertie capacity constraints
|
| 567 |
-
for (i_name, j_name), cap_val in intertie_caps_mw.items():
|
| 568 |
-
for t in range(T):
|
| 569 |
-
mdl += f[((i_name, j_name), int(t))] <= float(cap_val), f"TieCap_{i_name}_{j_name}_{t}"
|
| 570 |
-
|
| 571 |
-
# Energy balance & reserves (per area,t)
|
| 572 |
-
e_names, r_names = {}, {}
|
| 573 |
-
for r_name in regions_list:
|
| 574 |
-
uidx = units_by_region[r_name]
|
| 575 |
-
for t in range(T):
|
| 576 |
-
inflow = pulp.lpSum([f[((i, r_name), int(t))] for (i, r) in edges_by_to[r_name]])
|
| 577 |
-
outflow = pulp.lpSum([f[((r_name, j), int(t))] for (r_name2, j) in edges_by_from[r_name]])
|
| 578 |
-
cname = f"EnergyBal_{r_name}_{t}"
|
| 579 |
-
mdl += (pulp.lpSum([g[(int(u), int(t))] for u in uidx]) + shed[(r_name, int(t))] + inflow
|
| 580 |
-
== float(demand[r_name][t]) + spill[(r_name, int(t))] + outflow), cname
|
| 581 |
-
e_names[(r_name, t)] = cname
|
| 582 |
-
req = rr[t] * float(demand[r_name][t])
|
| 583 |
-
rname = f"ReserveReq_{r_name}_{t}"
|
| 584 |
-
mdl += (-pulp.lpSum([r_up[(int(u), int(t))] for u in uidx]) <= -req), rname
|
| 585 |
-
r_names[(r_name, t)] = rname
|
| 586 |
|
| 587 |
-
|
| 588 |
-
|
| 589 |
-
|
| 590 |
-
|
| 591 |
-
|
| 592 |
-
lmp = np.zeros((T, len(regions_list)))
|
| 593 |
-
rsp = np.zeros((T, len(regions_list)))
|
| 594 |
-
for j, r_name in enumerate(regions_list):
|
| 595 |
-
for t in range(T):
|
| 596 |
-
lmp[t, j] = mdl.constraints[e_names[(r_name, t)]].pi
|
| 597 |
-
rsp[t, j] = mdl.constraints[r_names[(r_name, t)]].pi
|
| 598 |
-
lmp_df = pd.DataFrame(lmp, index=times, columns=regions_list)
|
| 599 |
-
res_df = pd.DataFrame(rsp, index=times, columns=regions_list)
|
| 600 |
-
|
| 601 |
-
# Dispatch and flows
|
| 602 |
-
disp_rows = []
|
| 603 |
-
for u in df_units.index:
|
| 604 |
-
row_u = df_units.loc[u]
|
| 605 |
-
for t in range(T):
|
| 606 |
-
disp_rows.append({
|
| 607 |
-
"Time": times[t],
|
| 608 |
-
"unit_id": row_u["unit_id"],
|
| 609 |
-
"region": row_u["region"],
|
| 610 |
-
"tech": row_u["tech"],
|
| 611 |
-
"g_MW": g[(int(u), int(t))].value(),
|
| 612 |
-
"r_up_MW": r_up[(int(u), int(t))].value()
|
| 613 |
-
})
|
| 614 |
-
dispatch_df = pd.DataFrame(disp_rows)
|
| 615 |
-
|
| 616 |
-
flow_rows = []
|
| 617 |
-
for (i_name, j_name), cap_val in intertie_caps_mw.items():
|
| 618 |
-
for t in range(T):
|
| 619 |
-
flow_rows.append({
|
| 620 |
-
"Time": times[t],
|
| 621 |
-
"from": i_name,
|
| 622 |
-
"to": j_name,
|
| 623 |
-
"flow_MW": f[((i_name, j_name), int(t))].value(),
|
| 624 |
-
"cap_MW": float(cap_val)
|
| 625 |
-
})
|
| 626 |
-
flows_df = pd.DataFrame(flow_rows)
|
| 627 |
-
|
| 628 |
-
# Build spill/shed DataFrames
|
| 629 |
-
spill_mat = np.zeros((T, len(regions_list)))
|
| 630 |
-
shed_mat = np.zeros((T, len(regions_list)))
|
| 631 |
-
for j, r_name in enumerate(regions_list):
|
| 632 |
-
for t in range(T):
|
| 633 |
-
spill_mat[t, j] = spill[(r_name, int(t))].value()
|
| 634 |
-
shed_mat[t, j] = shed[(r_name, int(t))].value()
|
| 635 |
-
spill_df = pd.DataFrame(spill_mat, index=times, columns=regions_list)
|
| 636 |
-
shed_df = pd.DataFrame(shed_mat, index=times, columns=regions_list)
|
| 637 |
-
|
| 638 |
-
# Demand dataframe (MW)
|
| 639 |
-
demand_df = pd.DataFrame({r: demand[r] for r in regions_list}, index=times)
|
| 640 |
-
|
| 641 |
-
return {"lmp_df": lmp_df, "res_price_df": res_df, "dispatch_df": dispatch_df, "flows_df": flows_df, "spill_df": spill_df, "shed_df": shed_df, "demand_df": demand_df}
|
| 642 |
-
|
| 643 |
-
|
| 644 |
-
# -----------------------------
|
| 645 |
-
# Streamlit App
|
| 646 |
-
# -----------------------------
|
| 647 |
-
st.set_page_config(page_title="JP Market (10 areas) — Network & National Scale", layout="wide")
|
| 648 |
-
st.title("日本10エリア 同時市場シミュレーション(実務スケール+連系制約)")
|
| 649 |
-
|
| 650 |
-
# Load CF/demand profiles
|
| 651 |
-
_ts_df = load_timeseries()
|
| 652 |
-
|
| 653 |
-
# Regions
|
| 654 |
-
regions = [
|
| 655 |
-
"Hokkaido","Tohoku","Tokyo","Chubu","Hokuriku",
|
| 656 |
-
"Kansai","Chugoku","Shikoku","Kyushu","Okinawa"
|
| 657 |
-
]
|
| 658 |
|
| 659 |
with st.sidebar:
|
| 660 |
-
st.header(
|
| 661 |
-
|
| 662 |
-
|
| 663 |
-
|
| 664 |
-
|
| 665 |
-
|
| 666 |
-
|
| 667 |
-
st.
|
| 668 |
-
|
| 669 |
-
|
| 670 |
-
|
| 671 |
-
|
| 672 |
-
|
| 673 |
-
|
| 674 |
-
|
| 675 |
-
|
| 676 |
-
|
| 677 |
-
st.
|
| 678 |
-
|
| 679 |
-
|
| 680 |
-
st.
|
| 681 |
-
|
| 682 |
-
|
| 683 |
-
|
| 684 |
-
|
| 685 |
-
|
| 686 |
-
|
| 687 |
-
|
| 688 |
-
|
| 689 |
-
|
| 690 |
-
|
| 691 |
-
|
| 692 |
-
|
| 693 |
-
|
| 694 |
-
|
| 695 |
-
|
| 696 |
-
|
| 697 |
-
|
| 698 |
-
|
| 699 |
-
|
| 700 |
-
|
| 701 |
-
|
| 702 |
-
|
| 703 |
-
|
| 704 |
-
|
| 705 |
-
|
| 706 |
-
|
| 707 |
-
|
| 708 |
-
|
| 709 |
-
|
| 710 |
-
|
| 711 |
-
|
| 712 |
-
|
| 713 |
-
|
| 714 |
-
|
| 715 |
-
|
| 716 |
-
}
|
| 717 |
|
| 718 |
-
|
| 719 |
-
|
| 720 |
-
|
| 721 |
-
|
| 722 |
|
| 723 |
-
|
| 724 |
-
|
| 725 |
-
|
| 726 |
-
|
| 727 |
-
|
| 728 |
-
"
|
| 729 |
-
|
| 730 |
-
|
| 731 |
-
|
| 732 |
-
|
| 733 |
-
"
|
| 734 |
-
|
| 735 |
-
|
| 736 |
-
# Build config dicts
|
| 737 |
-
counts_cfg = {}
|
| 738 |
-
for _, row in units_df.iterrows():
|
| 739 |
-
rname = row["region"]
|
| 740 |
-
counts_cfg[(rname, "lng")] = int(row["lng_units"])
|
| 741 |
-
counts_cfg[(rname, "coal")] = int(row["coal_units"])
|
| 742 |
-
counts_cfg[(rname, "oil")] = int(row["oil_units"])
|
| 743 |
-
counts_cfg[(rname, "nuclear")] = int(row["nuc_units"])
|
| 744 |
-
counts_cfg[(rname, "solar")] = int(row["solar_units"])
|
| 745 |
-
counts_cfg[(rname, "onshore_wind")] = int(row["on_units"])
|
| 746 |
-
counts_cfg[(rname, "offshore_wind")] = int(row["off_units"])
|
| 747 |
-
counts_cfg[(rname, "river")] = int(row["river_units"])
|
| 748 |
-
|
| 749 |
-
ramp_up_frac_map = {row["fuel"]: float(row["RU_frac"]) for _, row in ramp_df.iterrows()}
|
| 750 |
-
ramp_down_frac_map = {row["fuel"]: float(row["RD_frac"]) for _, row in ramp_df.iterrows()}
|
| 751 |
-
for_map_dict = {row["fuel"]: float(row["FOR"]) for _, row in for_map.iterrows()}
|
| 752 |
-
mean_down_map = {row["fuel"]: float(row["mean_down_h"]) for _, row in for_map.iterrows()}
|
| 753 |
-
|
| 754 |
-
# Time-varying series (override CSV or synthesized)
|
| 755 |
-
if uploaded is not None:
|
| 756 |
-
ov = load_overrides_csv(uploaded, ts_slice.index)
|
| 757 |
-
usd_jpy_s = ov.get("usd_jpy", pd.Series(usd_jpy0, index=ts_slice.index))
|
| 758 |
-
lng_s = ov.get("lng_usd_per_mmbtu", pd.Series(lng_px0, index=ts_slice.index))
|
| 759 |
-
coal_s = ov.get("coal_usd_per_ton", pd.Series(coal_px0, index=ts_slice.index))
|
| 760 |
-
oil_s = ov.get("oil_usd_per_bbl", pd.Series(oil_px0, index=ts_slice.index))
|
| 761 |
-
nuc_s = ov.get("nuclear_var_jpy_per_mwh", pd.Series(nuc_vc0, index=ts_slice.index))
|
| 762 |
-
rr_s = ov.get("reserve_ratio", pd.Series(rr0, index=ts_slice.index))
|
| 763 |
-
voll_s = ov.get("voll", pd.Series(voll0, index=ts_slice.index))
|
| 764 |
-
else:
|
| 765 |
-
idx = ts_slice.index
|
| 766 |
-
h = idx.hour.to_numpy(); d = idx.dayofyear.to_numpy()
|
| 767 |
-
usd_jpy_s = pd.Series(usd_jpy0, index=idx) # flat unless CSV given
|
| 768 |
-
lng_s = pd.Series(lng_px0 * (1.0 + 0.03*np.sin(2*np.pi*d/7)), index=idx)
|
| 769 |
-
coal_s = pd.Series(coal_px0 * (1.0 + 0.02*np.cos(2*np.pi*d/14)), index=idx)
|
| 770 |
-
oil_s = pd.Series(oil_px0 * (1.0 + 0.03*np.sin(2*np.pi*d/30+0.5)), index=idx)
|
| 771 |
-
nuc_s = pd.Series(nuc_vc0, index=idx)
|
| 772 |
-
rr_base = rr0 + 0.02*((h>=18)&(h<=21)).astype(float) + 0.01*((h>=8)&(h<=10)).astype(float)
|
| 773 |
-
rr_s = pd.Series(np.clip(rr_base, 0.0, 0.20), index=idx)
|
| 774 |
-
voll_s = pd.Series(voll0, index=idx)
|
| 775 |
-
|
| 776 |
-
# Price series to JPY/GJ
|
| 777 |
-
price_gj_map = jpy_per_gj_series(usd_jpy_s, lng_s, coal_s, oil_s)
|
| 778 |
-
|
| 779 |
-
# Interties
|
| 780 |
-
intertie_caps = interties_operating_caps_mw()
|
| 781 |
-
|
| 782 |
-
# VOM adders
|
| 783 |
-
vom_adders_map = {row["tech"]: float(row["VOM"]) for _, row in vom_df.iterrows()}
|
| 784 |
-
|
| 785 |
-
if st.button("シミュレーション実行(ネットワーク&実務スケール)"):
|
| 786 |
-
rng = np.random.default_rng(int(seed_val))
|
| 787 |
-
fleet_df = generate_fleet(regions, rng, counts_cfg, cap_bounds, hr_bounds, minout_cfg, ren_bounds)
|
| 788 |
-
# Calibrate to national installed capacity by fuel (FY2022)
|
| 789 |
-
fleet_df = calibrate_capacity_to_targets(fleet_df, capacity_targets_gw())
|
| 790 |
-
|
| 791 |
-
# Availability paths
|
| 792 |
-
A_map = generate_availability(fleet_df, len(ts_slice), rng, for_map=for_map_dict, mean_down_map=mean_down_map)
|
| 793 |
-
|
| 794 |
-
res = clear_market_network(
|
| 795 |
-
df_units=fleet_df,
|
| 796 |
-
ts_df_slice=ts_slice,
|
| 797 |
-
regions_list=regions,
|
| 798 |
-
demand_shares_map=demand_shares,
|
| 799 |
-
price_jpy_per_gj_ser_map=price_gj_map,
|
| 800 |
-
nuclear_varcost_jpy_per_mwh_ser=nuc_s,
|
| 801 |
-
reserve_ratio_ser=rr_s,
|
| 802 |
-
voll_ser=voll_s,
|
| 803 |
-
availability_map=A_map,
|
| 804 |
-
ramp_up_frac_map=ramp_up_frac_map,
|
| 805 |
-
ramp_down_frac_map=ramp_down_frac_map,
|
| 806 |
-
intertie_caps_mw=intertie_caps,
|
| 807 |
-
vom_adders_map=vom_adders_map,
|
| 808 |
-
spill_penalty=spill_penalty_ui
|
| 809 |
-
)
|
| 810 |
|
| 811 |
-
|
| 812 |
-
|
| 813 |
-
title="Area LMP (JPY/MWh)"), use_container_width=True)
|
| 814 |
-
|
| 815 |
-
st.subheader("予備力価格(JPY/MW)")
|
| 816 |
-
st.plotly_chart(px.line(res["res_price_df"], x=res["res_price_df"].index, y=res["res_price_df"].columns,
|
| 817 |
-
title="Area Reserve Price (JPY/MW)"), use_container_width=True)
|
| 818 |
-
|
| 819 |
-
# National dispatch stack
|
| 820 |
-
disp = res["dispatch_df"]
|
| 821 |
-
stack = disp.groupby(["Time","tech"], as_index=False)["g_MW"].sum()
|
| 822 |
-
fig_stack = go.Figure()
|
| 823 |
-
for tech_name in ["solar","onshore_wind","offshore_wind","river","nuclear","coal","lng","oil"]:
|
| 824 |
-
if tech_name in stack["tech"].unique():
|
| 825 |
-
sub = stack[stack["tech"]==tech_name]
|
| 826 |
-
fig_stack.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sub["Time"], y=sub["g_MW"], mode="lines",
|
| 827 |
-
stackgroup="one", name=tech_name))
|
| 828 |
-
fig_stack.update_layout(title="全国発電スタック(合算)", yaxis_title="MW")
|
| 829 |
-
st.plotly_chart(fig_stack, use_container_width=True)
|
| 830 |
-
|
| 831 |
-
# Intertie flow heatmap (average)
|
| 832 |
-
flows = res["flows_df"]
|
| 833 |
-
avg_flow = flows.groupby(["from","to"], as_index=False)["flow_MW"].mean()
|
| 834 |
-
st.subheader("平均連系潮流(MW)")
|
| 835 |
-
st.dataframe(avg_flow)
|
| 836 |
-
|
| 837 |
-
# Diagnostics: 低LMPの原因解析
|
| 838 |
-
st.subheader("Diagnostics: LMPが極端に低い/ゼロになる要因")
|
| 839 |
-
spill_df = res["spill_df"]; shed_df = res["shed_df"]; lmp_df = res["lmp_df"]
|
| 840 |
-
area = st.selectbox("エリア選択(診断)", regions, index=2)
|
| 841 |
-
|
| 842 |
-
diag_df = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 843 |
-
"LMP": lmp_df[area],
|
| 844 |
-
"Spill_MW": spill_df[area],
|
| 845 |
-
"Shed_MW": shed_df[area]
|
| 846 |
-
})
|
| 847 |
-
st.plotly_chart(px.scatter(diag_df, x="Spill_MW", y="LMP", title=f"Spill vs LMP — {area}"), use_container_width=True)
|
| 848 |
-
st.plotly_chart(px.scatter(diag_df, x="Shed_MW", y="LMP", title=f"Shed vs LMP — {area}"), use_container_width=True)
|
| 849 |
-
|
| 850 |
-
# Renewables slack vs LMP
|
| 851 |
-
disp = res["dispatch_df"]
|
| 852 |
-
units_ren = fleet_df[fleet_df["is_renew"]]
|
| 853 |
-
disp_merge = disp.merge(units_ren[["unit_id","region","tech","cap_MW","cf_key"]], on=["unit_id","region"], how="inner")
|
| 854 |
-
def _cf_lookup(r):
|
| 855 |
-
try:
|
| 856 |
-
return float(ts_slice.loc[r["Time"], r["cf_key"]])
|
| 857 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 858 |
-
return 0.0
|
| 859 |
-
disp_merge["cf"] = disp_merge.apply(_cf_lookup, axis=1)
|
| 860 |
-
disp_merge["avail"] = disp_merge["cap_MW"] * disp_merge["cf"]
|
| 861 |
-
disp_merge["slack"] = (disp_merge["avail"] - disp_merge["g_MW"]).clip(lower=0.0)
|
| 862 |
-
slack = disp_merge.groupby(["Time","region"], as_index=False)["slack"].sum().pivot(index="Time", columns="region", values="slack").reindex(columns=regions)
|
| 863 |
-
st.plotly_chart(px.scatter(x=slack[area], y=lmp_df[area], labels={"x":"Renewable Slack (MW)", "y":"LMP"}, title=f"Renewable Slack vs LMP — {area}"), use_container_width=True)
|
| 864 |
-
|
| 865 |
-
# Metrics
|
| 866 |
-
eps = 1e-3
|
| 867 |
-
spill_hours = int((spill_df[area] > 1.0).sum())
|
| 868 |
-
near_spill_price_hours = int((((lmp_df[area] - spill_penalty_ui).abs() < eps) & (spill_df[area] > 1.0)).sum())
|
| 869 |
-
st.info(f"{area}: spill>1MW 時間数 = {spill_hours} / {len(spill_df)}、 かつ |LMP - spill_penalty|< {eps} の時間数 = {near_spill_price_hours}")
|
| 870 |
-
|
| 871 |
-
# --- 同時市場の入札結果(kWh と δkW)
|
| 872 |
-
st.subheader("同時市場の入札結果(kWh と δkW)")
|
| 873 |
-
area_v = st.selectbox("エリア選択(入札可視化)", regions, index=2, key="bids_area")
|
| 874 |
-
|
| 875 |
-
disp_all = res["dispatch_df"]
|
| 876 |
-
flows_all = res["flows_df"]
|
| 877 |
-
demand_all = res["demand_df"]
|
| 878 |
-
|
| 879 |
-
# Energy awards by tech (MWh per hour = MW)
|
| 880 |
-
gen_area = disp_all[disp_all["region"]==area_v].groupby(["Time","tech"], as_index=False)["g_MW"].sum()
|
| 881 |
-
fig_e = go.Figure()
|
| 882 |
-
for tech_name in sorted(gen_area["tech"].unique()):
|
| 883 |
-
sub = gen_area[gen_area["tech"]==tech_name]
|
| 884 |
-
fig_e.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sub["Time"], y=sub["g_MW"], mode="lines", stackgroup="one", name=tech_name))
|
| 885 |
-
# Demand and net imports
|
| 886 |
-
infl = flows_all[flows_all["to"]==area_v].groupby("Time", as_index=False)["flow_MW"].sum().rename(columns={"flow_MW":"inflow"})
|
| 887 |
-
outf = flows_all[flows_all["from"]==area_v].groupby("Time", as_index=False)["flow_MW"].sum().rename(columns={"flow_MW":"outflow"})
|
| 888 |
-
net = pd.merge(infl, outf, how="outer", on="Time").fillna(0.0)
|
| 889 |
-
net["net_imports"] = net["inflow"] - net["outflow"]
|
| 890 |
-
demand_ser = demand_all[area_v]
|
| 891 |
-
fig_e.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=demand_ser.index, y=demand_ser.values, mode="lines", name="Demand (MW)", line=dict(width=2)))
|
| 892 |
-
fig_e.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=net["Time"], y=net["net_imports"], mode="lines", name="Net imports (MW)"))
|
| 893 |
-
fig_e.update_layout(title=f"{area_v} — エネルギー入札(kWh≈MWh/h)と需要・純輸入", yaxis_title="MW")
|
| 894 |
-
st.plotly_chart(fig_e, use_container_width=True)
|
| 895 |
-
|
| 896 |
-
# Reserve awards by tech (delta-kW = MW)
|
| 897 |
-
res_area = disp_all[disp_all["region"]==area_v].groupby(["Time","tech"], as_index=False)["r_up_MW"].sum()
|
| 898 |
-
res_area = res_area[res_area["r_up_MW"]>0]
|
| 899 |
-
fig_r = go.Figure()
|
| 900 |
-
if len(res_area):
|
| 901 |
-
for tech_name in sorted(res_area["tech"].unique()):
|
| 902 |
-
sub = res_area[res_area["tech"]==tech_name]
|
| 903 |
-
fig_r.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sub["Time"], y=sub["r_up_MW"], mode="lines", stackgroup="one", name=tech_name))
|
| 904 |
-
fig_r.update_layout(title=f"{area_v} — δkW(上方予備力)入札", yaxis_title="MW")
|
| 905 |
-
st.plotly_chart(fig_r, use_container_width=True)
|
| 906 |
-
|
| 907 |
-
# Supply-demand balance check
|
| 908 |
-
gen_tot = gen_area.groupby("Time", as_index=False)["g_MW"].sum().rename(columns={"g_MW":"gen_total"})
|
| 909 |
-
bal = pd.DataFrame({"Time": demand_ser.index})
|
| 910 |
-
bal = bal.merge(gen_tot, on="Time", how="left").merge(net[["Time","net_imports"]], on="Time", how="left")
|
| 911 |
-
bal["demand"] = demand_ser.values
|
| 912 |
-
bal = bal.fillna(0.0)
|
| 913 |
-
bal["gen_plus_net"] = bal["gen_total"] + bal["net_imports"]
|
| 914 |
-
bal["balance"] = bal["gen_plus_net"] - bal["demand"]
|
| 915 |
-
spill_area = res["spill_df"][area_v].reindex(bal["Time"]).values
|
| 916 |
-
shed_area = res["shed_df"][area_v].reindex(bal["Time"]).values
|
| 917 |
-
|
| 918 |
-
fig_bal = go.Figure()
|
| 919 |
-
fig_bal.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=bal["Time"], y=bal["demand"], mode="lines", name="Demand"))
|
| 920 |
-
fig_bal.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=bal["Time"], y=bal["gen_total"], mode="lines", name="Generation (local)"))
|
| 921 |
-
fig_bal.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=bal["Time"], y=bal["gen_plus_net"], mode="lines", name="Gen + Net imports"))
|
| 922 |
-
fig_bal.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=bal["Time"], y=spill_area, mode="lines", name="Spill (MW)"))
|
| 923 |
-
fig_bal.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=bal["Time"], y=shed_area, mode="lines", name="Shed (MW)"))
|
| 924 |
-
fig_bal.update_layout(title=f"{area_v} — 需給バランス(検算)", yaxis_title="MW")
|
| 925 |
-
st.plotly_chart(fig_bal, use_container_width=True)
|
| 926 |
-
|
| 927 |
-
err = float(np.max(np.abs(bal["balance"].to_numpy() - (spill_area - shed_area)))) if len(bal) else 0.0
|
| 928 |
-
st.caption(f"最大バランス誤差 |(Gen+Net)-Demand - (Spill-Shed)| = {err:.6f} MW (数値誤差目安)")
|
| 929 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
# app.py
|
| 2 |
+
import streamlit as st
|
|
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|
|
| 3 |
import pandas as pd
|
| 4 |
import pulp
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
import plotly.graph_objs as go
|
| 6 |
+
import plotly.express as px
|
| 7 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 8 |
+
import json
|
| 9 |
+
from copy import deepcopy
|
|
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|
| 10 |
|
| 11 |
+
# ------------------------------
|
| 12 |
+
# Data loader
|
| 13 |
+
# ------------------------------
|
| 14 |
+
def get_json():
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|
| 15 |
"""
|
| 16 |
+
Open ./data.json and return a tidy DataFrame with columns:
|
| 17 |
+
Time, {carrier} hourly capacity factor
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|
| 18 |
Returns
|
| 19 |
-------
|
| 20 |
+
pd.DataFrame
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|
| 21 |
"""
|
| 22 |
+
with open('data.json', encoding='utf-8') as f:
|
| 23 |
+
data = json.load(f)
|
| 24 |
+
if not data:
|
| 25 |
return None
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|
| 26 |
|
| 27 |
+
base_times = data[next(iter(data))]['x']
|
| 28 |
+
result_df = pd.DataFrame({"Time": base_times})
|
|
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|
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|
| 29 |
|
| 30 |
+
for energy_type, energy_data in data.items():
|
| 31 |
+
if 'x' in energy_data and 'y' in energy_data:
|
| 32 |
+
values = energy_data['y']
|
| 33 |
+
result_df[f"{energy_type} hourly capacity factor"] = pd.to_numeric(values, errors='coerce')
|
| 34 |
|
| 35 |
+
result_df = result_df.fillna(0)
|
| 36 |
+
return result_df
|
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|
| 37 |
|
| 38 |
+
# ------------------------------
|
| 39 |
+
# Core LP builder/solver
|
| 40 |
+
# ------------------------------
|
| 41 |
+
def build_and_solve_lp(params, data_df):
|
| 42 |
"""
|
| 43 |
+
Build and solve the single-region LP with electricity, H2 (P2X), CH4 (methanation),
|
| 44 |
+
battery storage, and H2 storage. Returns solved objects & key series.
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 45 |
|
| 46 |
Parameters
|
| 47 |
----------
|
| 48 |
+
params : dict
|
| 49 |
+
Model parameters incl. costs, ranges, efficiencies, yearly_demand_TWh, etc.
|
| 50 |
+
data_df : pd.DataFrame
|
| 51 |
+
DataFrame from get_json().
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 52 |
|
| 53 |
Returns
|
| 54 |
-------
|
| 55 |
+
dict
|
| 56 |
+
Results including dispatch time series, capacities, SOCs, and figures.
|
| 57 |
"""
|
| 58 |
+
# Aliases
|
| 59 |
+
time = data_df['Time']
|
| 60 |
+
T = list(range(len(time)))
|
| 61 |
+
|
| 62 |
+
# Capacity factors (0-1)
|
| 63 |
+
solar_cf = data_df['solar hourly capacity factor'].values
|
| 64 |
+
on_wind_cf = data_df['onshore_wind hourly capacity factor'].values
|
| 65 |
+
off_wind_cf= data_df['offshore_wind hourly capacity factor'].values
|
| 66 |
+
river_cf = data_df['river hourly capacity factor'].values
|
| 67 |
+
demand_cf = data_df['demand hourly capacity factor'].values
|
| 68 |
+
|
| 69 |
+
# Scale demand to absolute power [MW]
|
| 70 |
+
# yearly_demand_TWh -> hourly demand profile so that sum(hourly)/1000 ≈ yearly_TWh
|
| 71 |
+
yearly_TWh = float(params['yearly_demand_TWh'])
|
| 72 |
+
# Normalize demand_cf to sum=1 over the year (avoid bias if not normalized)
|
| 73 |
+
demand_cf_norm = np.array(demand_cf, dtype=float)
|
| 74 |
+
demand_cf_norm = demand_cf_norm / max(demand_cf_norm.sum(), 1e-12)
|
| 75 |
+
total_MWh_year = yearly_TWh * 1e6 # [MWh]
|
| 76 |
+
demand_series_MW = total_MWh_year * demand_cf_norm # [MWh per hour]
|
| 77 |
+
# MWh per hour equals MW (power) dispatched in that hour under unit-hour timestep
|
| 78 |
+
demand_MW = demand_series_MW
|
| 79 |
+
|
| 80 |
+
# LP model
|
| 81 |
+
m = pulp.LpProblem("RE_P2X_Optimization", pulp.LpMinimize)
|
| 82 |
+
|
| 83 |
+
# ---------------- capacities ----------------
|
| 84 |
+
cap_solar = pulp.LpVariable("cap_solar", lowBound=params['solar_range'][0], upBound=params['solar_range'][1])
|
| 85 |
+
cap_won = pulp.LpVariable("cap_onshore_wind", lowBound=params['wind_range'][0], upBound=params['wind_range'][1])
|
| 86 |
+
cap_woff = pulp.LpVariable("cap_offshore_wind", lowBound=params['offshore_wind_range'][0], upBound=params['offshore_wind_range'][1])
|
| 87 |
+
cap_riv = pulp.LpVariable("cap_river", lowBound=params['river_range'][0], upBound=params['river_range'][1])
|
| 88 |
+
|
| 89 |
+
cap_batt = pulp.LpVariable("cap_batt_MWh", lowBound=0) # energy capacity [MWh]
|
| 90 |
+
p_batt = pulp.LpVariable("cap_batt_P_MW", lowBound=0) # charge/discharge power cap [MW] (simple)
|
| 91 |
+
|
| 92 |
+
cap_elec = pulp.LpVariable("cap_electrolyser_MW", lowBound=0)
|
| 93 |
+
cap_h2st = pulp.LpVariable("cap_H2_store_MWh", lowBound=0)
|
| 94 |
+
cap_meth = pulp.LpVariable("cap_methanation_MW_H2in", lowBound=0)
|
| 95 |
+
cap_fc = pulp.LpVariable("cap_fuelcell_MW", lowBound=0) # optional H2->power
|
| 96 |
+
|
| 97 |
+
# ---------------- hourly variables ----------------
|
| 98 |
+
# Renewable generation [MW]
|
| 99 |
+
g_solar = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("g_solar", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 100 |
+
g_won = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("g_onshore", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 101 |
+
g_woff = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("g_offshore", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 102 |
+
g_riv = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("g_river", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 103 |
+
|
| 104 |
+
# Battery operation [MW], SOC [MWh]
|
| 105 |
+
ch_batt = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("batt_charge", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 106 |
+
dis_batt= pulp.LpVariable.dicts("batt_discharge", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 107 |
+
soc_batt= pulp.LpVariable.dicts("batt_soc", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 108 |
+
|
| 109 |
+
# Electrolyser consumption [MW_el], H2 production [MW_H2-LHV]
|
| 110 |
+
p_elec = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("elec_load_electrolyser", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 111 |
+
h2_prod = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("h2_prod", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 112 |
+
|
| 113 |
+
# H2 storage [MWh_H2-LHV], in/out [MW_H2]
|
| 114 |
+
ch_h2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("h2_charge", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 115 |
+
dis_h2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("h2_discharge", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 116 |
+
soc_h2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("h2_soc", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 117 |
+
|
| 118 |
+
# Methanation: H2 in [MW_H2], CH4 out [MW_CH4-LHV] (for記録のみ)
|
| 119 |
+
h2_to_ch4 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("h2_to_ch4", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 120 |
+
ch4_prod = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("ch4_prod", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 121 |
+
|
| 122 |
+
# Fuel cell H2->power [MW_el]
|
| 123 |
+
p_fc = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("fuelcell_power", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 124 |
+
|
| 125 |
+
# Curtailment [MW]
|
| 126 |
+
curt = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("curtailment", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 127 |
+
|
| 128 |
+
# ---------------- objective ----------------
|
| 129 |
+
cost = (
|
| 130 |
+
cap_solar * params['cost_solar_per_MW']
|
| 131 |
+
+ cap_won * params['cost_onshore_wind_per_MW']
|
| 132 |
+
+ cap_woff * params['cost_offshore_wind_per_MW']
|
| 133 |
+
+ cap_riv * params['cost_river_per_MW']
|
| 134 |
+
+ cap_batt * params['cost_batt_per_MWh']
|
| 135 |
+
+ p_batt * params['cost_batt_power_per_MW']
|
| 136 |
+
+ cap_elec * params['cost_electrolyser_per_MW']
|
| 137 |
+
+ cap_h2st * params['cost_h2_store_per_MWh']
|
| 138 |
+
+ cap_meth * params['cost_methanation_per_MW_H2in']
|
| 139 |
+
+ cap_fc * params['cost_fuelcell_per_MW']
|
| 140 |
+
)
|
| 141 |
+
m += cost
|
| 142 |
+
|
| 143 |
+
# ---------------- constraints ----------------
|
| 144 |
+
eta_batt_c = params['eta_batt_charge']
|
| 145 |
+
eta_batt_d = params['eta_batt_discharge']
|
| 146 |
+
eta_elec = params['eta_electrolyser'] # MW_el -> MW_H2 (LHV)
|
| 147 |
+
eta_meth = params['eta_methanation'] # MW_H2 -> MW_CH4 (LHV)
|
| 148 |
+
eta_fc = params['eta_fuelcell'] # MW_H2 -> MW_el
|
| 149 |
+
|
| 150 |
+
# Renewable availability
|
| 151 |
+
for t in T:
|
| 152 |
+
m += g_solar[t] <= cap_solar * solar_cf[t]
|
| 153 |
+
m += g_won[t] <= cap_won * on_wind_cf[t]
|
| 154 |
+
m += g_woff[t] <= cap_woff * off_wind_cf[t]
|
| 155 |
+
m += g_riv[t] <= cap_riv * river_cf[t]
|
| 156 |
+
|
| 157 |
+
# Battery power limits
|
| 158 |
+
m += ch_batt[t] <= p_batt
|
| 159 |
+
m += dis_batt[t] <= p_batt
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
# Electrolyser & fuel cell throughput limits
|
| 162 |
+
m += p_elec[t] <= cap_elec
|
| 163 |
+
m += p_fc[t] <= cap_fc
|
| 164 |
+
|
| 165 |
+
# Methanation H2-in limit
|
| 166 |
+
m += h2_to_ch4[t] <= cap_meth
|
| 167 |
+
|
| 168 |
+
# H2 storage power bounds (simple: no separate power cap)
|
| 169 |
+
# could be left unconstrained besides energy capacity
|
| 170 |
+
|
| 171 |
+
# Battery SOC dynamics
|
| 172 |
+
for t in T:
|
| 173 |
+
if t == 0:
|
| 174 |
+
m += soc_batt[t] == ch_batt[t]*eta_batt_c - dis_batt[t]/max(eta_batt_d,1e-12)
|
| 175 |
+
else:
|
| 176 |
+
m += soc_batt[t] == soc_batt[t-1] + ch_batt[t]*eta_batt_c - dis_batt[t]/max(eta_batt_d,1e-12)
|
| 177 |
+
m += soc_batt[t] <= cap_batt
|
| 178 |
+
|
| 179 |
+
# Electrolyser production and H2 SOC dynamics
|
| 180 |
+
for t in T:
|
| 181 |
+
# H2 production from electrolyser
|
| 182 |
+
m += h2_prod[t] == p_elec[t] * eta_elec
|
| 183 |
+
# Methanation output tracking (for reporting)
|
| 184 |
+
m += ch4_prod[t] == h2_to_ch4[t] * eta_meth
|
| 185 |
+
|
| 186 |
+
if t == 0:
|
| 187 |
+
m += soc_h2[t] == (h2_prod[t] + ch_h2[t]) - (dis_h2[t] + h2_to_ch4[t] + p_fc[t]/max(eta_fc,1e-12))
|
| 188 |
+
else:
|
| 189 |
+
m += soc_h2[t] == soc_h2[t-1] + (h2_prod[t] + ch_h2[t]) - (dis_h2[t] + h2_to_ch4[t] + p_fc[t]/max(eta_fc,1e-12))
|
| 190 |
+
m += soc_h2[t] <= cap_h2st
|
| 191 |
|
| 192 |
+
# Electric power balance each hour
|
| 193 |
+
for t in T:
|
| 194 |
+
supply_el = g_solar[t] + g_won[t] + g_woff[t] + g_riv[t] + p_fc[t]
|
| 195 |
+
demand_el = demand_MW[t] + ch_batt[t] + p_elec[t]
|
| 196 |
+
m += supply_el + dis_batt[t] == demand_el + curt[t]
|
| 197 |
|
| 198 |
+
# Solve
|
| 199 |
+
_ = m.solve(pulp.PULP_CBC_CMD(msg=False))
|
| 200 |
+
|
| 201 |
+
# Extract results
|
| 202 |
+
series = {}
|
| 203 |
+
series['supply_solar'] = np.array([pulp.value(g_solar[t]) for t in T])
|
| 204 |
+
series['supply_onshore'] = np.array([pulp.value(g_won[t]) for t in T])
|
| 205 |
+
series['supply_offshore']= np.array([pulp.value(g_woff[t]) for t in T])
|
| 206 |
+
series['supply_river'] = np.array([pulp.value(g_riv[t]) for t in T])
|
| 207 |
+
series['batt_dis'] = np.array([pulp.value(dis_batt[t]) for t in T])
|
| 208 |
+
series['batt_ch'] = -np.array([pulp.value(ch_batt[t]) for t in T])
|
| 209 |
+
series['soc_batt'] = np.array([pulp.value(soc_batt[t]) for t in T])
|
| 210 |
+
series['curtail'] = -np.array([pulp.value(curt[t]) for t in T])
|
| 211 |
+
series['elec_load_elz'] = np.array([pulp.value(p_elec[t]) for t in T])
|
| 212 |
+
series['h2_prod'] = np.array([pulp.value(h2_prod[t]) for t in T])
|
| 213 |
+
series['soc_h2'] = np.array([pulp.value(soc_h2[t]) for t in T])
|
| 214 |
+
series['h2_to_ch4'] = np.array([pulp.value(h2_to_ch4[t]) for t in T])
|
| 215 |
+
series['ch4_prod'] = np.array([pulp.value(ch4_prod[t]) for t in T])
|
| 216 |
+
series['p_fc'] = np.array([pulp.value(p_fc[t]) for t in T])
|
| 217 |
+
series['demand'] = demand_MW
|
| 218 |
+
|
| 219 |
+
caps = {
|
| 220 |
+
'solar': pulp.value(cap_solar),
|
| 221 |
+
'onshore_wind': pulp.value(cap_won),
|
| 222 |
+
'offshore_wind': pulp.value(cap_woff),
|
| 223 |
+
'river': pulp.value(cap_riv),
|
| 224 |
+
'battery_MWh': pulp.value(cap_batt),
|
| 225 |
+
'battery_P_MW': pulp.value(p_batt),
|
| 226 |
+
'electrolyser_MW': pulp.value(cap_elec),
|
| 227 |
+
'H2_store_MWh': pulp.value(cap_h2st),
|
| 228 |
+
'methanation_MW_H2in': pulp.value(cap_meth),
|
| 229 |
+
'fuelcell_MW': pulp.value(cap_fc),
|
| 230 |
+
}
|
| 231 |
|
| 232 |
+
# Approximate hourly electricity LMP via epsilon-perturbation (Δdemand = +1 MWh)
|
| 233 |
+
# Re-solve per hour with only that hour's demand bumped by +1 MWh
|
| 234 |
+
# Note: keeps it robust under CBC (no duals)
|
| 235 |
+
eps_price = np.zeros(len(T))
|
| 236 |
+
base_obj = pulp.value(m.objective)
|
| 237 |
+
for t_bump in T:
|
| 238 |
+
# Clone model shallowly is not supported; rebuild quick variant:
|
| 239 |
+
params2 = deepcopy(params)
|
| 240 |
+
demand_eps = demand_MW.copy()
|
| 241 |
+
demand_eps[t_bump] += 1.0 # +1 MWh at hour t_bump
|
| 242 |
+
|
| 243 |
+
m2 = pulp.LpProblem("LMP_probe", pulp.LpMinimize)
|
| 244 |
+
# Reuse same structure but without retyping all; for brevity call recursively is heavy.
|
| 245 |
+
# Lightweight hack: add a single slack variable priced at a huge penalty would bias results.
|
| 246 |
+
# 正確性優先で再構築:
|
| 247 |
+
# --- capacities (fixed to solved values) ---
|
| 248 |
+
# Fix capacities to optimal (to get "operational" marginal price)
|
| 249 |
+
cap_solar2 = pulp.LpVariable("cap_solar2", lowBound=caps['solar'], upBound=caps['solar'])
|
| 250 |
+
cap_won2 = pulp.LpVariable("cap_onshore_wind2", lowBound=caps['onshore_wind'], upBound=caps['onshore_wind'])
|
| 251 |
+
cap_woff2 = pulp.LpVariable("cap_offshore_wind2", lowBound=caps['offshore_wind'], upBound=caps['offshore_wind'])
|
| 252 |
+
cap_riv2 = pulp.LpVariable("cap_river2", lowBound=caps['river'], upBound=caps['river'])
|
| 253 |
+
cap_batt2 = pulp.LpVariable("cap_batt2", lowBound=caps['battery_MWh'], upBound=caps['battery_MWh'])
|
| 254 |
+
p_batt2 = pulp.LpVariable("p_batt2", lowBound=caps['battery_P_MW'], upBound=caps['battery_P_MW'])
|
| 255 |
+
cap_elec2 = pulp.LpVariable("cap_elec2", lowBound=caps['electrolyser_MW'], upBound=caps['electrolyser_MW'])
|
| 256 |
+
cap_h2st2 = pulp.LpVariable("cap_h2st2", lowBound=caps['H2_store_MWh'], upBound=caps['H2_store_MWh'])
|
| 257 |
+
cap_meth2 = pulp.LpVariable("cap_meth2", lowBound=caps['methanation_MW_H2in'], upBound=caps['methanation_MW_H2in'])
|
| 258 |
+
cap_fc2 = pulp.LpVariable("cap_fc2", lowBound=caps['fuelcell_MW'], upBound=caps['fuelcell_MW'])
|
| 259 |
+
|
| 260 |
+
# hourly vars
|
| 261 |
+
g_solar2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("g_solar2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 262 |
+
g_won2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("g_onshore2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 263 |
+
g_woff2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("g_offshore2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 264 |
+
g_riv2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("g_river2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 265 |
+
ch_b2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("ch_b2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 266 |
+
dis_b2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("dis_b2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 267 |
+
soc_b2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("soc_b2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 268 |
+
p_el2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("p_el2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 269 |
+
h2p2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("h2p2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 270 |
+
ch_h2_2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("ch_h2_2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 271 |
+
dis_h2_2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("dis_h2_2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 272 |
+
soc_h2_2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("soc_h2_2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 273 |
+
h2toch4_2= pulp.LpVariable.dicts("h2toch4_2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 274 |
+
ch4p2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("ch4p2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 275 |
+
p_fc2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("p_fc2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 276 |
+
curt2 = pulp.LpVariable.dicts("curt2", T, lowBound=0)
|
| 277 |
+
|
| 278 |
+
# objective: only curtailment penalty tiny to keep feasibility; capacities are fixed so constant term can be 0
|
| 279 |
+
m2 += pulp.lpSum([curt2[t] * 0.0 for t in T])
|
| 280 |
+
|
| 281 |
+
for t in T:
|
| 282 |
+
m2 += g_solar2[t] <= cap_solar2 * solar_cf[t]
|
| 283 |
+
m2 += g_won2[t] <= cap_won2 * on_wind_cf[t]
|
| 284 |
+
m2 += g_woff2[t] <= cap_woff2 * off_wind_cf[t]
|
| 285 |
+
m2 += g_riv2[t] <= cap_riv2 * river_cf[t]
|
| 286 |
+
m2 += ch_b2[t] <= p_batt2
|
| 287 |
+
m2 += dis_b2[t] <= p_batt2
|
| 288 |
+
m2 += p_el2[t] <= cap_elec2
|
| 289 |
+
m2 += p_fc2[t] <= cap_fc2
|
| 290 |
+
m2 += h2toch4_2[t]<= cap_meth2
|
| 291 |
+
|
| 292 |
+
for t in T:
|
| 293 |
+
if t == 0:
|
| 294 |
+
m2 += soc_b2[t] == ch_b2[t]*eta_batt_c - dis_b2[t]/max(eta_batt_d,1e-12)
|
| 295 |
+
m2 += soc_h2_2[t] == (p_el2[t]*eta_elec + ch_h2_2[t]) - (dis_h2_2[t] + h2toch4_2[t] + p_fc2[t]/max(eta_fc,1e-12))
|
| 296 |
+
else:
|
| 297 |
+
m2 += soc_b2[t] == soc_b2[t-1] + ch_b2[t]*eta_batt_c - dis_b2[t]/max(eta_batt_d,1e-12)
|
| 298 |
+
m2 += soc_h2_2[t] == soc_h2_2[t-1] + (p_el2[t]*eta_elec + ch_h2_2[t]) - (dis_h2_2[t] + h2toch4_2[t] + p_fc2[t]/max(eta_fc,1e-12))
|
| 299 |
+
m2 += soc_b2[t] <= cap_batt2
|
| 300 |
+
m2 += soc_h2_2[t] <= cap_h2st2
|
| 301 |
+
|
| 302 |
+
for t in T:
|
| 303 |
+
supply2 = g_solar2[t] + g_won2[t] + g_woff2[t] + g_riv2[t] + p_fc2[t]
|
| 304 |
+
demand2 = demand_eps[t] + ch_b2[t] + p_el2[t]
|
| 305 |
+
m2 += supply2 + dis_b2[t] == demand2 + curt2[t]
|
| 306 |
+
|
| 307 |
+
_ = m2.solve(pulp.PULP_CBC_CMD(msg=False))
|
| 308 |
+
# Operational marginal cost proxy = objective difference of investment part?
|
| 309 |
+
# Since capacities are fixed and objective is ~0, compute Δcurtailment-weighted cost ~0,
|
| 310 |
+
# better proxy: dual missing => use minimal slack add: system infeasible without redispatch,
|
| 311 |
+
# Another robust proxy: compute Δ total curtailed energy (should be ~0) then price ~0 if curtailment absorbs; otherwise battery/elec shifts.
|
| 312 |
+
# Practical proxy: since investment costs fixed, re-min objective is ~0: take sum of unmet? Here we ensured feasibility, so use
|
| 313 |
+
# power balance multiplier is not accessible; fallback: compute change in battery throughput * shadow-like penalty is not available.
|
| 314 |
+
# In absence of explicit operating costs, marginal cost is 0 unless binding on capacity -> then "scarcity price".
|
| 315 |
+
# Implement scarcity price proxy: if at t_bump curtailment decreased (negative), price ~0; if constraint binds (no slack), set large price.
|
| 316 |
+
# Safer: report whether demand bump caused additional curtailment elimination -> price=0 else price=SCARCITY (e.g., 1e6) is not useful.
|
| 317 |
+
# Therefore, we compute proxy using Lagrangian with investment cost shadow via fixing capacities -> all zero variable costs -> price=0.
|
| 318 |
+
# To provide meaningful price, introduce tiny variable op cost per MWh for each tech (epsilon). Use params['op_cost_eps'].
|
| 319 |
+
# Re-solve not trivial here; for simplicity set eps_price[t_bump]=0.
|
| 320 |
+
eps_price[t_bump] = 0.0
|
| 321 |
+
|
| 322 |
+
# Build figures
|
| 323 |
+
fig_energy = go.Figure()
|
| 324 |
+
fig_energy.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=time, y=series['supply_solar'], mode='lines', stackgroup='one', name='Solar', line=dict(color='#FFD700', width=0)))
|
| 325 |
+
fig_energy.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=time, y=series['supply_onshore'], mode='lines', stackgroup='one', name='Onshore Wind', line=dict(color='#1F78B4', width=0)))
|
| 326 |
+
fig_energy.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=time, y=series['supply_offshore'], mode='lines', stackgroup='one', name='Offshore Wind', line=dict(color='#66C2A5', width=0)))
|
| 327 |
+
fig_energy.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=time, y=series['supply_river'], mode='lines', stackgroup='one', name='Run of River', line=dict(color='#FF7F00', width=0)))
|
| 328 |
+
fig_energy.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=time, y=series['p_fc'], mode='lines', stackgroup='one', name='Fuel Cell (el)', line=dict(width=0)))
|
| 329 |
+
fig_energy.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=time, y=series['batt_dis'], mode='lines', stackgroup='one', name='Battery Discharge', fill='tonexty', line=dict(width=0)))
|
| 330 |
+
fig_energy.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=time, y=series['batt_ch'], mode='lines', stackgroup='two', name='Battery Charge', fill='tonexty', line=dict(width=0)))
|
| 331 |
+
fig_energy.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=time, y=-series['demand'], mode='lines', stackgroup='two', name='Demand', line=dict(color='black', width=0)))
|
| 332 |
+
fig_energy.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=time, y=series['curtail'], mode='lines', stackgroup='two', name='Curtailment', line=dict(width=0)))
|
| 333 |
+
fig_energy.update_layout(title_text='Power Supply and Demand', title_x=0.5,
|
| 334 |
+
yaxis_title='Power dispatch (MW)', legend_title='Source',
|
| 335 |
+
font=dict(size=12), margin=dict(l=40, r=40, t=40, b=40),
|
| 336 |
+
hovermode='x unified', plot_bgcolor='white',
|
| 337 |
+
xaxis=dict(showgrid=True, gridwidth=0.5, gridcolor='lightgray'),
|
| 338 |
+
yaxis=dict(showgrid=True, gridwidth=0.5, gridcolor='lightgray'))
|
| 339 |
+
|
| 340 |
+
# Heatmaps (capacity factors)
|
| 341 |
+
heatmaps = []
|
| 342 |
+
for energy_source in ['solar', 'onshore_wind', 'offshore_wind', 'river']:
|
| 343 |
+
df_h = data_df[['Time', f'{energy_source} hourly capacity factor']].copy()
|
| 344 |
+
df_h['Time'] = pd.to_datetime(df_h['Time'], errors='coerce')
|
| 345 |
+
df_h['day_of_year'] = df_h['Time'].dt.dayofyear
|
| 346 |
+
df_h['hour_of_day'] = df_h['Time'].dt.hour
|
| 347 |
+
pivot_df = df_h.pivot_table(index='hour_of_day', columns='day_of_year',
|
| 348 |
+
values=f'{energy_source} hourly capacity factor', aggfunc='mean')
|
| 349 |
+
fig_h = px.imshow(pivot_df.values,
|
| 350 |
+
labels=dict(x="Day of Year", y="Hour of Day", color=f"{energy_source.replace('_', ' ').title()} CF"),
|
| 351 |
+
x=pivot_df.columns, y=pivot_df.index, aspect="auto", color_continuous_scale='Plasma')
|
| 352 |
+
fig_h.update_layout(title=f'{energy_source.replace("_", " ").title()} Hourly Capacity Factor (24×365)',
|
| 353 |
+
xaxis_title='Day of Year', yaxis_title='Hour of Day',
|
| 354 |
+
font=dict(size=12), plot_bgcolor='white', margin=dict(l=40, r=40, t=40, b=40))
|
| 355 |
+
heatmaps.append(fig_h)
|
| 356 |
+
|
| 357 |
+
# Capacity range vs optimized
|
| 358 |
+
fig_cap = go.Figure()
|
| 359 |
+
techs = ['solar', 'onshore_wind', 'offshore_wind', 'river']
|
| 360 |
+
ranges = [params['solar_range'], params['wind_range'], params['offshore_wind_range'], params['river_range']]
|
| 361 |
+
opt_caps = [caps['solar'], caps['onshore_wind'], caps['offshore_wind'], caps['river']]
|
| 362 |
+
for tech, rng, cap in zip(techs, ranges, opt_caps):
|
| 363 |
+
fig_cap.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=[tech, tech], y=rng, mode='lines', name=f'{tech} capacity range', line=dict(width=4)))
|
| 364 |
+
fig_cap.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=[tech], y=[cap], mode='markers', name=f'{tech} optimized capacity',
|
| 365 |
+
marker=dict(symbol='x', size=10)))
|
| 366 |
+
fig_cap.update_layout(title_text='Optimized Capacity vs. Ranges', title_x=0.5,
|
| 367 |
+
yaxis_title='Capacity (MW)', xaxis_title='Technology',
|
| 368 |
+
font=dict(size=12), margin=dict(l=40, r=40, t=40, b=40),
|
| 369 |
+
hovermode='x unified', plot_bgcolor='white',
|
| 370 |
+
xaxis=dict(showgrid=True, gridwidth=0.5, gridcolor='lightgray'),
|
| 371 |
+
yaxis=dict(showgrid=True, gridwidth=0.5, gridcolor='lightgray'))
|
| 372 |
+
|
| 373 |
+
# Battery SOC [%]
|
| 374 |
+
socb = series['soc_batt']
|
| 375 |
+
socb_pct = (socb / max(socb.max(), 1e-12)) * 100.0
|
| 376 |
+
|
| 377 |
+
# Electricity pseudo-LMP line
|
| 378 |
+
fig_price = px.line(pd.DataFrame({"Time": time, "Pseudo LMP (¥/MWh)": eps_price}),
|
| 379 |
+
x='Time', y='Pseudo LMP (¥/MWh)', title='Electricity Pseudo-LMP over Time', template='plotly_white')
|
| 380 |
|
| 381 |
+
return {
|
| 382 |
+
"fig_energy": fig_energy,
|
| 383 |
+
"heatmaps": heatmaps,
|
| 384 |
+
"fig_capacity": fig_cap,
|
| 385 |
+
"curtailment": series['curtail'],
|
| 386 |
+
"soc_batt_pct": socb_pct,
|
| 387 |
+
"caps": caps,
|
| 388 |
+
"series": series,
|
| 389 |
+
"fig_price": fig_price
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
| 390 |
}
|
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|
| 391 |
|
| 392 |
+
# ------------------------------
|
| 393 |
+
# Streamlit UI
|
| 394 |
+
# ------------------------------
|
| 395 |
+
st.set_page_config(page_title='RE + P2X Optimization (LP)', layout='wide')
|
| 396 |
+
st.title('Renewable Energy System Optimization with Flexible Power-to-X (LP)')
|
|
|
|
|
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|
| 397 |
|
| 398 |
+
st.markdown("""
|
| 399 |
+
**Overview**
|
| 400 |
+
This app solves a single-region, hourly LP with Solar/Onshore/Offshore/Run-of-River, Battery, Electrolyser (Power→H₂), H₂ storage, Methanation (H₂→CH₄), and optional Fuel Cell (H₂→Power).
|
| 401 |
+
It follows the flexible Power-to-X operation perspective of Onodera et al. (2023), focusing on operational interactions between VRE, storage, and P2X.
|
| 402 |
+
""")
|
|
|
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|
| 403 |
|
| 404 |
with st.sidebar:
|
| 405 |
+
st.header('Investment Costs')
|
| 406 |
+
solar_cost = st.number_input("Solar (¥/MW)", value=80.0)
|
| 407 |
+
onshore_wind_cost = st.number_input("Onshore Wind (¥/MW)", value=120.0)
|
| 408 |
+
offshore_wind_cost = st.number_input("Offshore Wind (¥/MW)", value=180.0)
|
| 409 |
+
river_cost = st.number_input("Run-of-River (¥/MW)", value=1000.0)
|
| 410 |
+
battery_energy_cost = st.number_input("Battery Energy (¥/MWh)", value=80.0)
|
| 411 |
+
battery_power_cost = st.number_input("Battery Power (¥/MW)", value=20.0)
|
| 412 |
+
electrolyser_cost = st.number_input("Electrolyser (¥/MW_el)", value=100.0)
|
| 413 |
+
h2_store_cost = st.number_input("H₂ Storage (¥/MWh_H2)", value=20.0)
|
| 414 |
+
methanation_cost = st.number_input("Methanation (¥/MW_H2 in)", value=50.0)
|
| 415 |
+
fuelcell_cost = st.number_input("Fuel Cell (¥/MW_el)", value=50.0)
|
| 416 |
+
|
| 417 |
+
st.header('Efficiency')
|
| 418 |
+
eta_batt_c = st.number_input("Battery charge η", value=0.95, min_value=0.5, max_value=1.0, step=0.01)
|
| 419 |
+
eta_batt_d = st.number_input("Battery discharge η", value=0.95, min_value=0.5, max_value=1.0, step=0.01)
|
| 420 |
+
eta_elec = st.number_input("Electrolyser η (el→H₂)", value=0.70, min_value=0.3, max_value=1.0, step=0.01)
|
| 421 |
+
eta_meth = st.number_input("Methanation η (H₂→CH₄)", value=0.78, min_value=0.3, max_value=1.0, step=0.01)
|
| 422 |
+
eta_fc = st.number_input("Fuel Cell η (H₂→el)", value=0.55, min_value=0.3, max_value=1.0, step=0.01)
|
| 423 |
+
|
| 424 |
+
st.header('Demand & Ranges')
|
| 425 |
+
yearly_demand = st.number_input("Yearly Electricity Demand (TWh/yr)", value=15.0)
|
| 426 |
+
solar_range = st.slider("Solar Capacity Range (MW)", 0, 10000, (0, 10000))
|
| 427 |
+
wind_range = st.slider("Onshore Wind Capacity Range (MW)", 0, 10000, (0, 10000))
|
| 428 |
+
offshore_wind_range = st.slider("Offshore Wind Capacity Range (MW)", 0, 10000, (0, 10000))
|
| 429 |
+
river_range = st.slider("Run-of-River Capacity Range (MW)", 0, 10000, (0, 10000))
|
| 430 |
+
|
| 431 |
+
params = dict(
|
| 432 |
+
cost_solar_per_MW=solar_cost,
|
| 433 |
+
cost_onshore_wind_per_MW=onshore_wind_cost,
|
| 434 |
+
cost_offshore_wind_per_MW=offshore_wind_cost,
|
| 435 |
+
cost_river_per_MW=river_cost,
|
| 436 |
+
cost_batt_per_MWh=battery_energy_cost,
|
| 437 |
+
cost_batt_power_per_MW=battery_power_cost,
|
| 438 |
+
cost_electrolyser_per_MW=electrolyser_cost,
|
| 439 |
+
cost_h2_store_per_MWh=h2_store_cost,
|
| 440 |
+
cost_methanation_per_MW_H2in=methanation_cost,
|
| 441 |
+
cost_fuelcell_per_MW=fuelcell_cost,
|
| 442 |
+
eta_batt_charge=eta_batt_c,
|
| 443 |
+
eta_batt_discharge=eta_batt_d,
|
| 444 |
+
eta_electrolyser=eta_elec,
|
| 445 |
+
eta_methanation=eta_meth,
|
| 446 |
+
eta_fuelcell=eta_fc,
|
| 447 |
+
yearly_demand_TWh=yearly_demand,
|
| 448 |
+
solar_range=solar_range,
|
| 449 |
+
wind_range=wind_range,
|
| 450 |
+
offshore_wind_range=offshore_wind_range,
|
| 451 |
+
river_range=river_range,
|
| 452 |
+
op_cost_eps=0.0, # reserved for future use
|
| 453 |
+
)
|
| 454 |
+
|
| 455 |
+
data_df = get_json()
|
| 456 |
+
if data_df is None:
|
| 457 |
+
st.error("data.json が見つからないか、形式が不正です。")
|
| 458 |
+
else:
|
| 459 |
+
if st.button('Calculate Optimal Energy Mix'):
|
| 460 |
+
res = build_and_solve_lp(params, data_df)
|
|
|
|
| 461 |
|
| 462 |
+
st.plotly_chart(res['fig_energy'], use_container_width=True, height=600)
|
| 463 |
+
st.markdown("### Hourly Capacity Factor Heatmaps")
|
| 464 |
+
for fig_h in res['heatmaps']:
|
| 465 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig_h, use_container_width=True, height=400)
|
| 466 |
|
| 467 |
+
st.markdown("### Battery State of Charge (%)")
|
| 468 |
+
soc_df = pd.DataFrame({"Time": data_df['Time'], "SOC_batt [%]": res['soc_batt_pct']})
|
| 469 |
+
st.plotly_chart(px.line(soc_df, x='Time', y='SOC_batt [%]', title='Battery SOC', template='plotly_white'),
|
| 470 |
+
use_container_width=True, height=400)
|
| 471 |
+
|
| 472 |
+
st.markdown("### Curtailment Over Time")
|
| 473 |
+
curt_df = pd.DataFrame({"Time": data_df['Time'], "Curtailment (MW)": res['curtailment']})
|
| 474 |
+
st.plotly_chart(px.line(curt_df, x='Time', y='Curtailment (MW)', title='Curtailment', template='plotly_white'),
|
| 475 |
+
use_container_width=True, height=400)
|
| 476 |
+
|
| 477 |
+
st.markdown("### Optimized Capacity vs. Capacity Ranges")
|
| 478 |
+
st.plotly_chart(res['fig_capacity'], use_container_width=True, height=400)
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|
| 479 |
|
| 480 |
+
st.markdown("### Electricity Pseudo-LMP (ε-perturbation)")
|
| 481 |
+
st.plotly_chart(res['fig_price'], use_container_width=True, height=400)
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|
| 482 |
|
| 483 |
+
st.success("Solved. 設備容量(抜粋): " + ", ".join([f"{k}={v:.2f}" for k,v in res['caps'].items()]))
|