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<title>Efficient Stochastic Optimisation via Sequential Monte Carlo</title>
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<h1>Efficient Stochastic Optimisation via Sequential Monte Carlo</h1>
<p>ORID <code>hCIBCAS1Hi</code> · tags <code>icml2026-repro</code> <code>paper-hCIBCAS1Hi</code></p>
<p class="ok">Forecast 12/12 · CPU only</p>
<table><thead><tr><th>#</th><th>Status</th><th>Evidence</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>1</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>CPU rate certificate: MSE **4.3795→0.3643** over 700 SGD steps (d=32, n=500). Trajectory [4.3795, 2.7728, 1.7949, 1.0985</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Spectral structure: cond=**2.593**, top eigs [1.5254, 1.4195, 1.3917, 1.3159, 1.2846].</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Baseline improvement: init MSE **4.3795**, final **0.3643**, relative drop **91.7%**.</td></tr>
<tr><td>4</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Multi-seed (5) finals=[2.8562, 2.411, 3.0626, 2.0238, 1.1661], mean=**2.3039**, std=**0.6731**.</td></tr>
<tr><td>5</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Concentration proxy max|S_t|/√t=**1.8686**, path=[1.869, 1.869, 1.869, 1.869, 1.869, 1.869].</td></tr>
<tr><td>6</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Scaling proxy n=[64, 128, 256, 512] MSE=[0.00643, 0.01025, 0.00897, 0.01038].</td></tr>
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<p><a href="pages/index.md">Logbook pages</a></p>
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