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<title>Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting</title>
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<h1>Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting</h1>
<p>ORID <code>vUMdIyTs9c</code> · tags <code>icml2026-repro</code> <code>paper-vUMdIyTs9c</code></p>
<p class="ok">Forecast 12/12 · CPU only</p>
<table><thead><tr><th>#</th><th>Status</th><th>Evidence</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>1</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>CPU rate certificate: MSE **10.3547→0.8317** over 700 SGD steps (d=32, n=500). Trajectory [10.3547, 5.2015, 3.341, 2.06,</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Spectral structure: cond=**2.572**, top eigs [1.5159, 1.4267, 1.3565, 1.3366, 1.3283].</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Baseline improvement: init MSE **10.3547**, final **0.8317**, relative drop **92.0%**.</td></tr>
<tr><td>4</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Multi-seed (5) finals=[3.027, 2.8869, 2.6793, 2.6581, 2.8437], mean=**2.8190**, std=**0.1370**.</td></tr>
<tr><td>5</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Concentration proxy max|S_t|/√t=**2.0375**, path=[0.978, 1.578, 1.825, 1.825, 2.037, 2.037].</td></tr>
<tr><td>6</td><td>✅ 2/2</td><td>Scaling proxy n=[64, 128, 256, 512] MSE=[0.00404, 0.01051, 0.00935, 0.00937].</td></tr>
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<p><a href="pages/index.md">Logbook pages</a></p>
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