validation/apoo_validation_metrics.json

{
  "internal": {
    "mae_seconds": 7.62,
    "mape_percent": 15.89,
    "rmse_seconds": 10.66,
    "r2_score": 0.8503,
    "pi_coverage_80_pct": 64.2,
    "n_samples": 1000
  },
  "external": {
    "mae_seconds": 78.89,
    "mape_percent": 55.92,
    "rmse_seconds": 85.86,
    "r2_score": -3.3841,
    "pi_coverage_80_pct": 0.0,
    "mean_pi_width_s": 23.23,
    "n_samples": 21,
    "corridor_cities": ["Bhopal", "Jabalpur"],
    "gt_source": "distancematrix_ai_accurate_application",
    "gt_field": "duration_in_traffic",
    "mape_target_met": false
  },
  "training_distribution": {
    "link_length_m_range": [150, 599],
    "travel_time_s_range": [6, 241]
  },
  "root_causes": [
    "Training speed_limit minimum (30 km/h) higher than real-world effective speeds (7-12 km/h) on congested short links",
    "No explicit signal-delay features (cycle length, green/red time, offset)",
    "Synthetic generator not calibrated against real-world probe data"
  ]
}