{ "description": "Meteomat shows probabilistic weather forecasts anywhere in the world. Instead of a single number, it shows a range of likely outcomes so you can see not just what is most likely, but how confident the forecast is.", "sources": [ { "product": "ECMWF IFS Ensemble (EPS)", "resolution_km": 18, "members": 51, "horizon_days": 7, "type": "weather" }, { "product": "ECMWF IFS HRES", "resolution_km": 9, "members": 1, "horizon_days": 7, "type": "weather" }, { "product": "ECMWF Wave Model", "resolution_km": 28, "members": null, "horizon_days": 7, "type": "marine" } ], "parameters": { "uncertainty_band_pct": { "low": 10, "high": 90 }, "rain_threshold_mm": 0.1, "rain_blend_hres_rain": { "ensemble": 0.5, "hres": 0.5 }, "rain_blend_hres_no_rain": { "ensemble": 0.75, "hres": 0.25 } }, "limitations": [ { "id": "spatial_resolution", "title": "Spatial resolution", "body": "HRES at ~9 km and the ensemble at ~18 km cannot resolve sub-grid features such as valley-scale orography, urban heat islands, or small coastal inlets. Two nearby locations within the same grid cell will receive nearly identical forecasts." }, { "id": "ensemble_calibration", "title": "Ensemble calibration", "body": "The ECMWF ensemble is one of the best-calibrated probabilistic forecast systems in the world, but calibration is not perfect. Stated probabilities are skill estimates, not guarantees." }, { "id": "rainfall_uncertainty", "title": "Rainfall uncertainty", "body": "Precipitation is the hardest variable to forecast deterministically. The blending methodology is a pragmatic combination of two imperfect sources and should be interpreted with appropriate caution." }, { "id": "sst_upwelling", "title": "SST and upwelling", "body": "The marine SST forecast does not account for wind-driven upwelling events, which are common along the Cantabrian coast of Spain and can cause surface temperatures significantly colder than the model suggests." } ], "version": "2.0.1" }