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crucible / engine /predict_yearly.py

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  1. Withheld-run fixes: recorded margin floor; re-blend bounded by the recorded cap; precise break-even revenue and sign-aware growth clause; pre-revenue message; no retry invitation for deterministic failures

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  1. Mechanical DCF: cumulative discounting along the rate path; MechanicalDCFState; MECHANICAL_DCF_DISCOUNT_PATH

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  2. Story business identity from canonical state only: no recalled segments, filing-verified disposals, story-business validators

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  3. BSX root causes: token-safe segment keywords + parent-sector compatibility gate; growth label; semantic gate before the PM

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  1. Claim lineage: typed guidance/engine-vs-consensus relations, lineage checks, HistoricalMetricQuality label

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  2. Open items: break-even solved on the adopted margin (floor never cuts); recalibrated thesis gate; benign co-citation; no triggers on price multiples; nominated peers only; benchmark applicability; merged guidance rows; engine-EPS basis; market composite noun; insider transaction counts; filer names; quarter limitation; story revenue/share precision

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  3. Structured arguments items 1-2: thesis rests_on + two-pass gate with report context, one bounded repair turn, typed trigger labels, evidence printed in full once, identifier and authored-once audits, relaxed evidence limits, past returns withheld

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  4. Structured arguments (crucible.args/2): typed evidence + figure-free judgement, templated figures, validated forwarding between rounds, semantic gate; data-quality notes kept out of author prompts

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  1. Expectations frontier (conditional, not conjunctive); guidance coverage pass and FOUND_BUT_REJECTED semantics

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  2. Relationship layer: RelationshipClaim, typed break-even/story metrics, model-evidence scope, guidance epistemic state, semantic returns, typed blend sources

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  3. SPGI root-cause remediation: typed units, comparability, corporate actions, StoryBase, discount-rate path, evidence permissions

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  1. Premium inputs: perimeter-changed trailing ROE/margin and distorted EPS growth add no differential

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  2. Pricing premium architecture: industry-relative premium on the industry anchor only; regime adjustment on own history; double-adjustment validator S13; cap diagnostics

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  3. Guidance exhibit matching + retries; outlier trim vs median of all methods; margin-change claims; motive rule scoped to trades

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  4. PM evidence ids from state; guidance candidate diagnostics; bridge wording

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  5. Root-cause remediation: reconciled forecast basis, canonical segments, PricingState, company guidance, ownership/insider permissions, S1-S12 validators

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  1. ML models: walk-forward-judged panel rank, plain-language ML disclosure in report and progress

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  2. storytellers: seat labels in the log; larger response budget for segment builds

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  3. Storytellers run in parallel; 'under the hood' progress narration of Damodaran's framework inputs

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  4. progress: story-start marker, updated timings; summary limited to two figures

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  5. Summary-first report with expandable sections, mobile UI, live progress (storytellers, debate seats), low-risk stable-rate override

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  6. report: segment-build evidence cited as claims

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  7. Damodaran method: value-weighted business mix, mature-company stable cost of capital, required segment builds

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  8. Filed segment mix from the latest 10-Q/10-K; business-mix beta from Damodaran industry betas; storytellers build segment stories from filings

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  9. Share-count reconciliation: SEC cover page sums all classes; one-class provider counts replaced

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  10. NaN is missing data at the claim layer; ownership sentence without a prior-quarter count

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  11. One risk-free source for the story; a missing statistical forecast is a limitation when the story carries the value

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  12. Damodaran datasets wired in: monthly implied ERP (auto-refresh), country risk premiums, bottom-up industry betas, industry sales-to-capital and margins; market-built cost of equity in the cross-sectional DCF

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  13. Trailing growth for staging, the mechanical DCF and the storytellers comes from the reconciled statements

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  14. Damodaran life cycle: consensus-based staging; story FCFF for every operating company; capital release, distress value and zero stable growth in decline; 13F ownership as a state namespace

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  15. Lifecycle: an earnings drop is decline only when revenue is not growing (replaces the LLM stage override)

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  16. Legacy cleanup: state mode is the only debate path; text gate, claim sweep, report exporter, metric categories and 29 unused modules removed; LLM stage override replaced by a deterministic GAAP-distortion test; unused dependencies dropped

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  1. Perimeter as a metric field; consensus reconciled against the USD base (D14); intrinsic label from the producing model; policy-excluded multiples absent; SEC tag recency; token-only persona templates; 10b5-1 rule scoped

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  2. One label-adjacency rule for ingestion and audit; structured sensitivity shifts

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  3. Blend: excluded price model cannot reweight or haircut; adjustments carried into state; stage-accurate withheld message

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  4. AnalysisState pipeline: reconciliation, staged validation, frozen state, claim-token prose, audited renderer; public/QA split

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  5. Summary prompt takes its anchor names from the engine; terminology audit covers any sentence naming the estimate, excusing explicit denials

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  6. Persona and PM prompts take their valuation vocabulary and typed metric labels from the selected engine

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  7. Surface the traceback when the JSON export fails

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  8. An insider window with no discretionary transactions has no score; every consumer handles that

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  9. Industrial DCF vocabulary forbidden on non-FCFF engines; typed insider score applied after the Form 4 canon exists

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  10. Same-model rewrite emits grammatical engine vocabulary; typed insider score reaches the persona components

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  11. Fix two undefined references introduced by the P0 wiring

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  12. P0 hardening: one percentage type, exhaustive rendered-claim audit, engine-owned terminology, reliability as evidence permissions, typed metric categories, FPI leadership, 10b5-1 semantics, deterministic ranges

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  13. Consensus-gate messages name the anchor value so the shrunk forecast is not read as consensus

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  14. Normalize sell-side consensus to the report currency before any model/consensus comparison

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  15. Enforce forecast accounting identities: EPS forecast cannot imply net income above after-tax operating income

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  16. ADR facts survive re-classification (FPI on a US exchange is ADS-quoted); PM structured triggers survive the synthesis parser; name and target-price parsing no longer false-positive; qualified signal phrases not re-flagged; impossible implied margin names its inconsistent input

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  17. Boundary normalization of model forecasts (filing currency → USD, or withheld); ADS basis resolved before metrics; scenario/trigger objects carried through the report data; signals built pre-debate; engine terminology policed in valuation context only; peer multiple removal warns; intrinsic-value and price claims registered

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  18. Semantic types: normalized metrics (currency/scale/ADS basis) with gated derivations; engine-owned labels and methodology; one ScenarioSet and immutable object ids; reliability controls weight, language and persona visibility; structured thesis triggers with causal polarity; separate intrinsic/pricing/momentum signals; claim-registry render audit; 8 publication gates; 95 tests

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