Spaces:
Running
Running
File size: 28,123 Bytes
134649f 99f8576 134649f ce24482 134649f ce24482 ccf80cf 134649f ce24482 134649f ce24482 134649f ce24482 134649f b1d68e0 ce24482 134649f ce24482 99f8576 50f32cd ce24482 99f8576 50f32cd ce24482 7ca15c8 ce24482 134649f ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 698c7aa ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 2bdc78a 261cef9 2bdc78a ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 261cef9 ce24482 37c6e05 f429b7e 6b8bcf1 37c6e05 261cef9 37c6e05 f429b7e 37c6e05 261cef9 f429b7e 37c6e05 ce24482 134649f ea01671 134649f | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 | <!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Slipstream</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/static/app.css?v=20260820a">
</head>
<body>
<header>
<div class="brand">
<h1>Slipstream</h1>
<span class="brand-tag">smart-money Β· quality Β· trend-adaptive</span>
</div>
<nav class="tabs">
<button class="tab active" data-tab="fund">Fund</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="about">Strategy & Research</button>
</nav>
<span id="env-badge" class="badge">checkingβ¦</span>
</header>
<main>
<!-- ============ FUND TAB ============ -->
<div id="tab-fund" class="tab-panel active">
<div id="statusline" class="statusline">β</div>
<div id="healthstrip" class="healthstrip" hidden></div>
<section class="card fund">
<div class="card-head">
<h2>Fund Portfolio & Performance</h2>
<span id="regime" class="regime">β</span>
</div>
<div id="kpis" class="kpis"></div>
<div class="perf">
<div class="perf-head">
<span class="legend"><i class="lg-fund"></i> Slipstream</span>
<span class="legend"><i class="lg-spy"></i> SPY</span>
<span id="perf-note" class="muted"></span>
</div>
<canvas id="navchart" height="240"></canvas>
</div>
<div class="fund-cols">
<div>
<h3>Holdings <small id="holdings-n"></small></h3>
<div id="holdings">Loadingβ¦</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3>Target book <small>Slipstream rule</small></h3>
<div id="target">Loadingβ¦</div>
<div class="rebal">
<button id="rebal-preview">Preview rebalance</button>
<div id="rebal-out"></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="riskscreen" class="riskscreen"></div>
</section>
<div class="picks-zone">
<h2 class="zone-title">Top AI Picks of the Month</h2>
<p class="zone-sub">Informational signals β the fund follows a validated, risk-controlled subset of these. Not individual trade advice.</p>
<div class="picks-row">
<section class="card picks" id="panel-superinvestor">
<h3><span class="dot"></span>Super Investor Activity<a class="top20" href="/picks?panel=superinvestor">Top 20 βΊ</a></h3>
<p class="hint">Top 5 by net guru activity last quarter (2Γ new β₯$10M positions + adds β trims β 2Γ exits) β SEC 13F via Sharadar, curated guru list</p>
<div class="picks-body">Loadingβ¦</div>
<button class="refresh" data-panel="superinvestor">β» Refresh</button>
</section>
<section class="card picks" id="panel-insider">
<h3><span class="dot"></span>Insider Activity<a class="top20" href="/picks?panel=insider">Top 20 βΊ</a></h3>
<p class="hint">Top 5 by insider conviction, last 30 days β SEC Form 4 open-market buys by officers/directors, LLM-screened</p>
<div class="picks-body">Loadingβ¦</div>
<button class="refresh" data-panel="insider">β» Refresh</button>
</section>
<section class="card picks" id="panel-news">
<h3><span class="dot"></span>News Action<a class="top20" href="/picks?panel=news">Top 20 βΊ</a></h3>
<p class="hint">Top 5 by positive S&P 500 news, last 30 days, LLM-validated</p>
<div class="picks-body">Loadingβ¦</div>
<button class="refresh" data-panel="news">β» Refresh</button>
</section>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- ============ ABOUT / RESEARCH TAB ============ -->
<div id="tab-about" class="tab-panel">
<article class="doc">
<p class="doc-lede">Slipstream is a quality, trend-adaptive equity paper fund that <b>drafts the smart money</b> β it holds the large-caps that concentrated, high-conviction 13F managers are collectively buying, keeps only the most profitable companies in each sector, caps any one stock at 10%, and rotates into momentum when the market trend breaks. What follows is the rule, the backtest, and an honest account of everything we tried on the way here.</p>
<h2 class="doc-h">1 Β· Strategy & approach</h2>
<p>The core question: does <em>following the smart money</em> actually work? Our October 2026 re-validation, run from a fresh data pull, found that the original rule (curated super-investors + insiders, ROE/debt quality gate) had <b>no demonstrated edge</b> over SPY. Eight pre-registered follow-up studies then identified what does carry information: <b>breadth of conviction buying among concentrated managers</b>, filtered for <b>profitability within each sector</b>. The rule (v2, live since 5 October 2026), applied monthly:</p>
<table class="doc-table">
<tbody>
<tr><td class="k">Managers</td><td>Every 13F filer that behaves like a concentrated stock-picker <em>that quarter</em>: 10β150 positions, $250Mβ$100B reported equity, β₯40% in its top 10, and a filing the previous quarter. Rule-based, ~900β1,500 managers a quarter β new managers join automatically, nobody curates the list</td></tr>
<tr><td class="k">Signal</td><td><b>Consensus:</b> for each stock, 2 Γ managers opening a conviction position + managers adding β 2 Γ managers exiting (a conviction position is β₯$1M and β₯0.5% of the manager's portfolio). Buy candidates have a positive count. 13F only β insider buying is no longer used</td></tr>
<tr><td class="k">Universe</td><td>Top ~1,000 US stocks by market cap, point-in-time</td></tr>
<tr><td class="k">Quality</td><td>Return on assets in the <b>top 30% of its own sector</b> (latest filing public at the time) β so every sector contributes its most profitable companies, and banks or utilities aren't screened out wholesale</td></tr>
<tr><td class="k">Construction</td><td>Top 20 by consensus, weighted by the dollars managers committed, each stock <b>1β10%</b>, at most 5 per sector</td></tr>
<tr><td class="k">AI event-risk overlay</td><td>A second-stage AI screen reads recent news on the final candidates and <b>hard-excludes only critical events</b> β threats to the company itself: going-concern / bankruptcy, fraud or restatement, criminal indictment, loss of the license to operate, sanctions cutting off a major share of revenue. Lesser events are shown and held. Excluded names are replaced by the next-ranked candidate</td></tr>
<tr><td class="k">Dynamic sector cap</td><td>Each sector capped at 30% <b>Β± its 12-1m relative strength vs SPY</b> (band 15β45%)</td></tr>
<tr><td class="k">Regime overlay</td><td>When SPY is in a <b>confirmed downtrend</b> (below its 200-day MA, confirmed a month earlier), the whole book rotates into the 50 large-caps with the strongest 12-month momentum</td></tr>
<tr><td class="k">Rebalance</td><td>Monthly (~3.5Γ one-way turnover a year), 1% cash buffer, 0.5% trade deadband</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="doc-note">Why these pieces: counting <em>how many</em> conviction managers are buying works better than following any curated few β no 13F manager's individual record proved persistent enough to pick on. The within-sector ROA filter is the single biggest improvement we found; it lifted every manager list we tested. The 10% stock cap keeps the same risk-adjusted return as 15% with a less concentrated book. The regime overlay is what carries the fund through bear markets.</p>
<p class="doc-note"><b>On the AI overlay β deliberately narrow.</b> Selection stays 100% systematic; the LLM is <em>not</em> a stock-picker. Because no backtest can include it, it now fires <b>only on critical events</b>, so the live fund deviates from the tested rule only when a company itself is under threat. It is capped (β€3 exclusions/rebalance), every exclusion cites its headline, and if the news feed or model is unavailable the fund trades the pure quant book unchanged.</p>
<h2 class="doc-h">2 Β· Backtest results</h2>
<p>Survivorship-free backtest, 2014-03 β 2026-10, rebuilt from a fresh Sharadar pull (4,323 delisted names included; delisting returns from corporate actions). Trades use only data available the day before, net of 20 bp per side, 1% cash; Sharpe and Sortino are net of T-bills. The AI overlay is not included (it can't be backtested).</p>
<div class="doc-kpis">
<div class="dk"><span>CAGR</span><b>19.9%</b><small>SPY 13.9%</small></div>
<div class="dk"><span>Excess / yr</span><b class="pos">+5.9%</b><small>vs SPY</small></div>
<div class="dk"><span>Sharpe</span><b>0.85</b><small>SPY 0.73</small></div>
<div class="dk"><span>Sortino</span><b>1.04</b><small></small></div>
<div class="dk"><span>Alpha (ann)</span><b class="pos">+3.9%</b><small>t 1.8 Β· Ξ² 1.17</small></div>
<div class="dk"><span>Max drawdown</span><b class="neg">-37.5%</b><small>SPY -33.7%</small></div>
<div class="dk"><span>Years beat SPY</span><b>6 / 11</b><small>2015β2025</small></div>
<div class="dk"><span>In momentum</span><b>24%</b><small>of months</small></div>
</div>
<figure class="doc-chart">
<div class="dc-head"><span class="dc-title">Growth of $100 β Slipstream vs SPY</span>
<span class="dc-leg"><i class="lg-fund"></i> Slipstream <i class="lg-spy" style="margin-left:12px"></i> SPY <span class="faint" style="margin-left:12px">2014-03 β 2026-10 Β· net of cost Β· log scale</span></span></div>
<svg viewBox="0 0 1000 300" class="dc-svg" preserveAspectRatio="none" role="img" aria-label="Growth of $100, Slipstream versus SPY, log scale, March 2014 to October 2026"><defs><linearGradient id="dcg" x1="0" x2="0" y1="0" y2="1"><stop offset="0" stop-color="#37b8a4" stop-opacity="0.14"/><stop offset="1" stop-color="#37b8a4" stop-opacity="0"/></linearGradient></defs><line x1="48" y1="264.6" x2="986" y2="264.6" stroke="#1e2c42"/><text x="41" y="267.6" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="end" font-family="monospace">100</text><line x1="48" y1="220.4" x2="986" y2="220.4" stroke="#1e2c42"/><text x="41" y="223.4" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="end" font-family="monospace">150</text><line x1="48" y1="189.0" x2="986" y2="189.0" stroke="#1e2c42"/><text x="41" y="192.0" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="end" font-family="monospace">200</text><line x1="48" y1="144.8" x2="986" y2="144.8" stroke="#1e2c42"/><text x="41" y="147.8" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="end" font-family="monospace">300</text><line x1="48" y1="89.2" x2="986" y2="89.2" stroke="#1e2c42"/><text x="41" y="92.2" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="end" font-family="monospace">500</text><line x1="48" y1="52.5" x2="986" y2="52.5" stroke="#1e2c42"/><text x="41" y="55.5" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="end" font-family="monospace">700</text><line x1="48" y1="13.6" x2="986" y2="13.6" stroke="#1e2c42"/><text x="41" y="16.6" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="end" font-family="monospace">1000</text><polygon points="48,274 48.0,264.8 53.7,264.8 59.8,261.4 66.1,257.8 72.1,257.6 78.4,257.2 84.7,254.0 90.8,254.1 97.1,250.3 103.2,245.6 109.5,247.4 115.7,251.1 121.4,243.9 127.7,247.0 133.8,244.6 140.1,244.4 146.2,250.1 152.4,246.1 158.7,253.3 164.8,259.4 171.1,257.4 177.2,255.1 183.5,257.5 189.8,267.2 195.6,268.9 201.9,261.7 208.0,261.5 214.3,260.4 220.4,263.5 226.7,259.4 233.0,256.7 239.0,255.4 245.3,257.1 251.4,257.3 257.7,256.3 264.0,252.2 269.7,246.2 276.0,244.4 282.0,240.3 288.3,236.1 294.4,235.8 300.7,232.3 307.0,231.4 313.1,229.8 319.4,224.4 325.4,222.8 331.7,222.3 338.0,213.0 343.7,216.3 350.0,219.3 356.1,218.7 362.4,211.0 368.4,210.8 374.7,209.9 381.0,208.0 387.1,207.6 393.4,215.5 399.5,217.0 405.8,228.2 412.0,214.2 417.7,208.2 424.0,207.3 430.1,200.7 436.4,208.4 442.5,202.6 448.8,199.9 455.0,199.6 461.1,199.8 467.4,196.1 473.5,190.8 479.8,186.6 486.1,184.9 492.0,190.6 498.2,210.7 504.3,192.7 510.6,183.7 516.7,173.6 523.0,167.4 529.3,155.5 535.4,159.8 541.6,161.6 547.7,154.8 554.0,152.3 560.3,153.7 566.0,152.1 572.3,150.0 578.4,142.7 584.6,144.7 590.7,138.3 597.0,135.5 603.3,133.2 609.4,139.3 615.7,131.5 621.8,130.4 628.0,127.0 634.3,131.7 640.0,140.9 646.3,136.0 652.4,144.7 658.7,137.4 664.7,154.6 671.0,145.0 677.3,142.7 683.4,156.8 689.7,141.6 695.8,142.1 702.1,151.0 708.4,147.7 714.0,154.6 720.3,144.1 726.4,143.0 732.7,136.5 738.8,131.0 745.1,125.9 751.3,127.1 757.4,131.3 763.7,132.7 769.8,118.1 776.1,112.7 782.4,109.6 788.3,101.8 794.5,100.2 800.6,102.4 806.9,94.8 813.0,87.9 819.3,90.1 825.6,84.5 831.7,79.0 837.9,78.3 844.0,75.6 850.3,77.3 856.6,70.7 862.3,72.0 868.6,80.8 874.7,77.0 880.9,66.5 887.0,57.3 893.3,56.2 899.6,54.7 905.7,49.8 912.0,46.2 918.1,45.1 924.3,46.4 930.6,46.5 936.3,49.4 942.6,55.8 948.7,35.9 955.0,20.4 961.1,27.2 967.3,22.4 973.6,19.6 979.7,17.5 986.0,16.5 986,274" fill="url(#dcg)"/><polyline points="48.0,264.6 53.7,262.9 59.8,262.2 66.1,259.7 72.1,257.4 78.4,258.9 84.7,254.7 90.8,256.2 97.1,253.7 103.2,250.7 109.5,251.0 115.7,254.3 121.4,248.3 127.7,250.1 133.8,249.0 140.1,247.6 146.2,249.8 152.4,247.4 158.7,254.2 164.8,257.1 171.1,248.2 177.2,247.8 183.5,249.6 189.8,255.2 195.6,255.3 201.9,248.2 208.0,247.8 214.3,245.9 220.4,245.6 226.7,241.7 233.0,241.5 239.0,241.5 245.3,243.4 251.4,239.5 257.7,237.3 264.0,235.4 269.7,231.2 276.0,231.0 282.0,229.9 288.3,228.4 294.4,227.7 300.7,225.5 307.0,225.2 313.1,223.0 319.4,220.5 325.4,217.2 331.7,215.9 338.0,209.9 343.7,213.9 350.0,217.0 356.1,216.4 362.4,213.8 368.4,213.2 374.7,209.2 381.0,205.8 387.1,205.1 393.4,212.9 399.5,210.9 405.8,221.0 412.0,212.6 417.7,209.1 424.0,207.1 430.1,202.8 436.4,210.0 442.5,202.6 448.8,201.0 455.0,202.8 461.1,200.7 467.4,198.3 473.5,194.5 479.8,191.3 486.1,191.4 492.0,200.4 498.2,214.9 504.3,201.9 510.6,196.8 516.7,194.9 523.0,188.6 529.3,181.3 535.4,185.4 541.6,188.2 547.7,176.9 554.0,173.0 560.3,174.1 566.0,171.1 572.3,166.2 578.4,160.6 584.6,159.9 590.7,157.5 597.0,154.9 603.3,151.7 609.4,156.9 615.7,149.5 621.8,150.4 628.0,145.4 634.3,151.3 640.0,154.6 646.3,150.6 652.4,160.6 658.7,160.3 664.7,169.7 671.0,160.1 677.3,164.7 683.4,175.2 689.7,166.7 695.8,160.8 702.1,167.3 708.4,160.6 714.0,163.4 720.3,159.4 726.4,157.7 732.7,157.2 738.8,150.4 745.1,146.8 751.3,148.6 757.4,153.9 763.7,156.3 769.8,146.8 776.1,141.9 782.4,140.2 788.3,134.7 794.5,131.1 800.6,135.6 806.9,130.3 813.0,126.5 819.3,125.2 825.6,122.6 831.7,120.4 837.9,121.4 844.0,115.0 850.3,117.7 856.6,114.8 862.3,116.2 868.6,122.5 874.7,123.4 880.9,116.8 887.0,111.3 893.3,108.8 899.6,106.6 905.7,102.8 912.0,100.2 918.1,100.0 924.3,99.9 930.6,98.3 936.3,99.3 942.6,104.8 948.7,93.9 955.0,88.3 961.1,89.4 967.3,89.4 973.6,86.5 979.7,86.9 986.0,85.9" fill="none" stroke="#5d6b83" stroke-width="1.6" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/><polyline points="48.0,264.8 53.7,264.8 59.8,261.4 66.1,257.8 72.1,257.6 78.4,257.2 84.7,254.0 90.8,254.1 97.1,250.3 103.2,245.6 109.5,247.4 115.7,251.1 121.4,243.9 127.7,247.0 133.8,244.6 140.1,244.4 146.2,250.1 152.4,246.1 158.7,253.3 164.8,259.4 171.1,257.4 177.2,255.1 183.5,257.5 189.8,267.2 195.6,268.9 201.9,261.7 208.0,261.5 214.3,260.4 220.4,263.5 226.7,259.4 233.0,256.7 239.0,255.4 245.3,257.1 251.4,257.3 257.7,256.3 264.0,252.2 269.7,246.2 276.0,244.4 282.0,240.3 288.3,236.1 294.4,235.8 300.7,232.3 307.0,231.4 313.1,229.8 319.4,224.4 325.4,222.8 331.7,222.3 338.0,213.0 343.7,216.3 350.0,219.3 356.1,218.7 362.4,211.0 368.4,210.8 374.7,209.9 381.0,208.0 387.1,207.6 393.4,215.5 399.5,217.0 405.8,228.2 412.0,214.2 417.7,208.2 424.0,207.3 430.1,200.7 436.4,208.4 442.5,202.6 448.8,199.9 455.0,199.6 461.1,199.8 467.4,196.1 473.5,190.8 479.8,186.6 486.1,184.9 492.0,190.6 498.2,210.7 504.3,192.7 510.6,183.7 516.7,173.6 523.0,167.4 529.3,155.5 535.4,159.8 541.6,161.6 547.7,154.8 554.0,152.3 560.3,153.7 566.0,152.1 572.3,150.0 578.4,142.7 584.6,144.7 590.7,138.3 597.0,135.5 603.3,133.2 609.4,139.3 615.7,131.5 621.8,130.4 628.0,127.0 634.3,131.7 640.0,140.9 646.3,136.0 652.4,144.7 658.7,137.4 664.7,154.6 671.0,145.0 677.3,142.7 683.4,156.8 689.7,141.6 695.8,142.1 702.1,151.0 708.4,147.7 714.0,154.6 720.3,144.1 726.4,143.0 732.7,136.5 738.8,131.0 745.1,125.9 751.3,127.1 757.4,131.3 763.7,132.7 769.8,118.1 776.1,112.7 782.4,109.6 788.3,101.8 794.5,100.2 800.6,102.4 806.9,94.8 813.0,87.9 819.3,90.1 825.6,84.5 831.7,79.0 837.9,78.3 844.0,75.6 850.3,77.3 856.6,70.7 862.3,72.0 868.6,80.8 874.7,77.0 880.9,66.5 887.0,57.3 893.3,56.2 899.6,54.7 905.7,49.8 912.0,46.2 918.1,45.1 924.3,46.4 930.6,46.5 936.3,49.4 942.6,55.8 948.7,35.9 955.0,20.4 961.1,27.2 967.3,22.4 973.6,19.6 979.7,17.5 986.0,16.5" fill="none" stroke="#37b8a4" stroke-width="2.4"/><circle cx="986.0" cy="16.5" r="3.5" fill="#37b8a4"/><text x="982.0" y="8.5" fill="#3ed88f" font-size="11" text-anchor="end" font-family="monospace">$973</text><text x="982.0" y="99.9" fill="#8695ad" font-size="11" text-anchor="end" font-family="monospace">$515</text><text x="109.7" y="294" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="middle" font-family="monospace">2015</text><text x="257.9" y="294" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="middle" font-family="monospace">2017</text><text x="406.0" y="294" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="middle" font-family="monospace">2019</text><text x="554.2" y="294" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="middle" font-family="monospace">2021</text><text x="702.3" y="294" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="middle" font-family="monospace">2023</text><text x="850.5" y="294" fill="#5d6b83" font-size="10" text-anchor="middle" font-family="monospace">2025</text></svg>
</figure>
<table class="doc-table wide">
<thead><tr><th>Period</th><th>Fund CAGR</th><th>SPY</th><th>Excess</th><th>Sharpe (SPY)</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>2014β2019 (calm bull)</td><td>13.1%</td><td>12.2%</td><td class="pos">+0.9%</td><td>0.77 (0.88)</td></tr>
<tr><td>2020β2022 (COVID + rate shock)</td><td>11.5%</td><td>7.6%</td><td class="pos">+3.9%</td><td>0.49 (0.39)</td></tr>
<tr><td>2023β2026 (AI mega-cap rally)</td><td>39.1%</td><td>22.1%</td><td class="pos">+17.0%</td><td>1.46 (1.11)</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="doc-note">How the rule was chosen: settings were selected on 2016-03 β 2021-12 only (Sharpe 1.08 vs SPY 1.00). 2022 onward was then reviewed across several studies, so it is not a clean out-of-sample test (Sharpe 0.86 vs 0.52). The two years before selection, 2014-03 β 2016-02, were never used β and the fund <b>trailed SPY</b> there (β1.8% vs +4.4% a year, hurt by risk-off whipsaws in 2015β16).</p>
<p class="doc-warn"><b>Read honestly.</b> This is a <em>simulated backtest</em>, not a live track record, and it is the best of ~210 configurations tested β so expect live results below it. Over the full period the alpha is positive but only borderline significant (t 1.8); the fund carries more market risk than SPY (Ξ² 1.17, volatility ~22%, drawdowns to -37.5%); roughly half the book is usually tech-related; and much of the excess return came after 2023. Candidate rules are tracked in a forward "shadow book" whose books are recorded before their returns exist β that record, not this chart, is the real test. Not investment advice.</p>
<h2 class="doc-h">3 Β· Everything we explored</h2>
<p>We stress-tested the idea from every angle before settling on the rule above. Each row is a real backtest; the pattern that emerged: <b>every "buy it cheap / beaten-down" tilt hurt, and every "quality / large-cap / diversify / adapt" control helped.</b></p>
<table class="doc-table wide">
<thead><tr><th>What we tried</th><th>Result</th><th>Verdict</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Raw 13F + insider, whole market</td><td><b>0 of 120</b> constructions beat SPY; insider buying actively destructive (β63% drawdown, worse than random)</td><td class="neg">β no edge</td></tr>
<tr><td>Prior IC studies (cross-sectional)</td><td>Insider IC β β0.02, guru β +0.02 (not significant); only institutional breadth marginally positive ("size proxy")</td><td class="neg">β confirms weak</td></tr>
<tr><td>Restrict to large caps (top-500 / 1,000)</td><td>An edge appears (+2β3% excess) β but it was <b>concentrated sector risk</b>, not skill</td><td class="warn">~ misleading</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sector cap / sector-neutral</td><td>The "edge" collapses to β market once the sector bet is removed β proves it wasn't stock-picking</td><td class="neg">β revealing</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Dynamic sector cap (relative-strength)</b></td><td>Beats a hard cap: lets leaders run, trims faders; full-period Sharpe 0.82 β 0.86</td><td class="pos">β adopted</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dip / value entry (below 52w-high or 200DMA)</td><td>Made it <b>worse</b> (18 β 1 SPY-beaters) β the falling-knife effect; buying strength beats buying dips here</td><td class="neg">β rejected</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Quality screen (ROE, debt/equity)</b></td><td>The least-bad overlay β quality is a real factor; nudged more configs above SPY</td><td class="pos">β adopted</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hold-until-sell (mirror guru holding periods)</td><td>Sell signals are rare β book ballooned to ~190 names and diluted to market; underperformed</td><td class="neg">β rejected</td></tr>
<tr><td>Monthly vs quarterly churn</td><td>Monthly β quarterly return but more turnover β 13F updates quarterly, so churning adds cost, not signal</td><td class="warn">~ no gain</td></tr>
<tr><td>Momentum factor (in the 2020β22 window)</td><td>The one thing that beat the fund <em>and</em> SPY in that stretch β because it's regime-adaptive</td><td class="pos">β informed overlay</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Regime switch β momentum (200DMA, confirmed)</b></td><td>Fixes 2020β22 (β2.8% β +6.0%), lifts full-period excess to +5.0%, same drawdown</td><td class="pos">β adopted</td></tr>
<tr><td>Multi-signal regime consensus (5 signals, K-of-N)</td><td>No better than the simple single 200DMA filter; more knobs = more overfitting risk</td><td class="warn">~ kept it simple</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dynamic cap + regime overlay (v1, Aug 2026)</td><td>Reported 19.5% CAGR / Sharpe 0.92 β <b>not reproducible</b> (its 13F input was overwritten); rebuilt on fresh data with live execution: 15.5% CAGR, Sharpe 0.67 vs SPY 0.73, no significant alpha</td><td class="warn">~ superseded</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wider / different manager lists (102, 210 curated; top-200 track records; "emerging" managers; top inflows)</td><td>No list beat the simple rule-based concentrated-manager list; past 13F skill doesn't persist (rank correlation β 0 across 44 quarters)</td><td class="neg">β rejected</td></tr>
<tr><td>Accumulation Radar (volume footprint nowcast of 13F buying)</td><td>Detects institutional accumulation well (AUC 0.76) but adds no return on top of 13F consensus</td><td class="neg">β rejected</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Quality = ROA, top 30% within sector</b></td><td>Lifted every manager list (e.g. Sharpe 0.89 β 1.07 on 2016β21); smart-money book now beats SPY in risk-on months</td><td class="pos">β adopted</td></tr>
<tr><td>Add debt/equity screen</td><td>Lowered return in all 4 variants, no drawdown benefit β mostly removes high-ROA buyback compounders</td><td class="neg">β rejected</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>10% stock cap (vs 15%)</b></td><td>Same Sharpe, top-5 weight 56% β 48%</td><td class="pos">β adopted</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tech cap (Technology + Communication β€ 30β40%)</td><td>Costs 1.4β2.5%/yr, no drawdown benefit β a view on tech, not a free risk reduction</td><td class="warn">~ optional, not used</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Concentrated-manager consensus + ROA-30 + 10% cap (v2)</b></td><td>19.9% CAGR vs SPY 13.9%, Sharpe 0.85 vs 0.73, -37.5% max DD (2014β2026)</td><td class="pos">β
Slipstream</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="doc-note">A recurring lesson worth keeping: the flashiest backtest numbers came from the configs taking the most <em>uncompensated</em> risk (concentration, single regime). Each time we tightened the methodology β survivorship, costs, sub-period robustness, sector control, multiple-testing thresholds β the "edge" shrank toward the market. Slipstream is what was left standing after all of that.</p>
<h2 class="doc-h">4 Β· Data & honesty notes</h2>
<ul class="doc-list">
<li><b>Data:</b> SEC 13F (Sharadar SF3, every filer), fundamentals (SF1), prices (SEP), corporate actions (delistings) via Nasdaq Data Link. Survivorship-free. Sector labels are current, not historical. Form 4 insider data (SF2) feeds the Insider picks panel only.</li>
<li><b>Signal freshness:</b> 13F is quarterly and ~45 days lagged by law β so the smart-money signal is inherently stale; the fund is built to work <em>despite</em> that, not to pretend otherwise.</li>
<li><b>Picks panels</b> are informational and LLM-screened for manipulation/pump patterns; they are <em>not</em> individual buy recommendations. The fund trades a disciplined, risk-controlled subset automatically.</li>
<li><b>Paper only.</b> Slipstream runs on an Alpaca paper account. Nothing here is investment advice.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="doc-h">5 Β· Operations & monitoring</h2>
<p>The fund runs fully automated in the cloud, on Hugging Face scheduled Jobs, with a flag-only supervisor watching it daily.
Three independent scheduled loops:</p>
<table class="doc-table">
<tbody>
<tr><td><b>Weekly refresh</b> (Sun)</td><td>A private worker Space re-pulls all source data from scratch
(13F, insider, fundamentals, prices, macro), rebuilds the signal panel, and a <em>freshness gate</em>
asserts every dataset actually advanced β a stale input fails the run loudly instead of silently
trading on old data.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Monthly rebalance</b> (1st)</td><td>Trades the freshest weekly signal row through the
construction rules above (ROA quality gate β AI critical-event screen β 10% name cap alternating with dynamic
sector caps). Idempotent β a re-run trades only target-minus-actual.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Daily supervisor</b> (every day)</td><td>A deterministic health monitor β it <em>never
trades</em> β checking three things: <b>tracking</b> (trailing 4-week fund-vs-SPY gap; WATCH <β3pp,
ALERT <β6pp), <b>guardrails</b> (paper-only invariant, no margin, exposure β€100.5%, and position
drift β the 10% cap applies <em>at</em> rebalance, so intra-month drift only flags above 13%, alerts
above 17%), and <b>freshness</b> (signals β€10 days old, last rebalance β€35 days). Results appear as
the OK / WATCH / ALERT chips at the top of the Fund tab, and an ALERT opens an alert on the Space so it
can't be missed.</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="doc-note">Design choice: monitoring is <b>flag-only</b>. The supervisor observes and reports;
only the monthly rebalance ever places orders, and only on the paper account. An autonomous
recalibration agent (self-adjusting strategy parameters under strict acceptance gates) was evaluated and
deliberately deferred until the fund has a walk-forward variant-testing harness and at least a quarter of
live tracking history to calibrate against.</p>
</article>
</div>
</main>
<dialog id="detail-modal">
<div class="detail-head"><h3 id="detail-title">Details</h3><button id="detail-close" aria-label="Close">β</button></div>
<div id="detail-body"></div>
</dialog>
<script src="/static/app.js?v=20260920a"></script>
</body>
</html>
|