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updraft
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<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Updraft — live quality-trend fund</title>
<meta name="description" content="Updraft holds the three quality US stocks with the strongest trends and rebalances itself on the first trading day of every month. An Alpaca live paper trade simulation, with the strategy and its backtest.">
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<body>
<header class="masthead">
  <div class="wrap mast">
    <a class="brand" href="/" aria-label="Updraft home">
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      <span class="word">Updraft</span>
    </a>
    <div class="mast-right"><span class="dot" id="dot"></span><span id="updated">connecting…</span>
      <button class="theme" id="themeBtn" aria-label="Toggle light or dark">◐</button></div>
  </div>
  <div class="wrap hero-copy">
    <h1>Three quality stocks with the strongest trends — rebalanced automatically every month.</h1>
    <p id="lede">An Alpaca live paper trade simulation, run by rules, not opinions. Below: what it is worth right now, how it
      compares with the S&amp;P 500, and what it holds.</p>
  </div>
  <nav class="wrap tabs" role="tablist" aria-label="Sections">
    <button role="tab" id="t-live" aria-selected="true" aria-controls="p-live">Live fund</button>
    <button role="tab" id="t-strategy" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="p-strategy">The strategy</button>
    <button role="tab" id="t-history" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="p-history">History</button>
  </nav>
</header>

<main class="wrap">
<!-- ===================================================== LIVE FUND -->
<section id="p-live" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="t-live">
  <div class="kpis">
    <div class="tile hero"><div class="l">Portfolio value</div><div class="v" id="k-eq">—</div><div class="s" id="k-today"></div></div>
    <div class="tile"><div class="l">Since start</div><div class="v" id="k-ret">—</div><div class="s" id="k-ret-s"></div></div>
    <div class="tile"><div class="l">S&amp;P 500, same money</div><div class="v" id="k-spy">—</div><div class="s" id="k-spy-s"></div></div>
    <div class="tile"><div class="l">Worst fall</div><div class="v" id="k-dd">—</div><div class="s">peak to trough, since start</div></div>
    <div class="tile"><div class="l">Next rebalance</div><div class="v" id="k-next">—</div><div class="s" id="k-next-s"></div></div>
  </div>

  <div class="filters" aria-label="Chart period">
    <div class="seg" id="range">
      <button data-r="1M" aria-pressed="false">1M</button><button data-r="3M" aria-pressed="false">3M</button>
      <button data-r="YTD" aria-pressed="false">YTD</button><button data-r="1Y" aria-pressed="false">1Y</button>
      <button data-r="ALL" aria-pressed="true">All</button></div>
    <span class="period-read" id="period-read"></span>
  </div>
  <div class="card">
    <div class="chart-head">
      <div><h2>Portfolio value</h2><p class="sub">The Alpaca paper account, against the same money invested in the S&amp;P 500 (same start, same deposits).</p></div>
      <div class="legend"><span><i style="background:var(--updraft)"></i>Updraft</span><span><i style="background:var(--spy)"></i>S&amp;P 500</span></div>
    </div>
    <div class="chartbox"><canvas id="c-live" role="img" aria-label="Portfolio value versus the S&P 500"></canvas></div>
    <p class="note" id="live-note">Daily closes from the Alpaca account, plus the live value now (updates every 30 seconds).</p>
  </div>

  <div class="card">
    <div class="chart-head"><div><h2>Current holdings</h2><p class="sub" id="hold-sub">A third each, re-split monthly. A stock stays while it ranks in the top 6.</p></div></div>
    <div style="overflow-x:auto"><table class="hold" id="holdings"><thead><tr>
      <th>Stock</th><th class="hide-s">Weight</th><th class="r">Value</th><th class="r">Gain</th><th class="r hide-s">Today</th><th class="r">Rank now</th>
    </tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="6" class="empty">Loading…</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
    <p class="note" id="cash-note"></p>
  </div>

  <div class="card">
    <div class="chart-head"><div><h2>Today's top 10</h2><p class="sub" id="short-sub">The quality pool ranked by trend — the list the three holdings are picked from.</p></div></div>
    <div style="overflow-x:auto"><table class="hold" id="shortlist"><thead><tr>
      <th class="r">#</th><th>Stock</th><th class="r">6 months</th><th class="r hide-s">1 month</th><th class="r hide-s">Quality</th><th>Status</th>
    </tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="6" class="empty">Loading…</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
    <p class="note" id="short-note"></p>
  </div>
</section>

<!-- ===================================================== HISTORY -->
<section id="p-history" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="t-history" hidden>
  <div class="stat4" id="h-stats"></div>
  <div class="card">
    <h2>Rebalance by rebalance</h2>
    <p class="sub">Read from Alpaca's own orders, newest first. A holding is sold only once it drops out of the top 6; its slot
      goes to the highest-ranked stock not held, and the stocks that stay are re-split to a third each.</p>
    <div id="h-events" style="margin-top:10px"><p class="empty">Loading…</p></div>
  </div>
  <div class="card">
    <h2>Every position</h2>
    <p class="sub">Result = money taken out (sales, plus today's value while still held) minus money put in, so the monthly
      top-ups and trims are counted.</p>
    <div style="overflow-x:auto"><table class="hold" id="h-positions"><thead><tr>
      <th>Stock</th><th class="hide-s">Bought</th><th>Sold</th><th class="r hide-s">Held for</th><th class="r hide-s">Put in</th><th class="r">Result</th><th class="r">Return</th>
    </tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="empty">Loading…</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
    <p class="note" id="h-note"></p>
  </div>
</section>

<!-- ===================================================== THE STRATEGY -->
<section id="p-strategy" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="t-strategy" hidden>
  <div class="card">
    <h2>How Updraft picks its three stocks</h2>
    <p class="sub">Two filters that each worked in 27 years of data — quality first, then trend — and a simple monthly routine.</p>
    <div class="steps">
      <div class="step"><div class="n">1,000</div><div class="t">Large US companies</div><p>The 1,000 largest by market value, price ≥ $5, at least $5M traded a day, US-dollar accounts.</p></div>
      <div class="step"><div class="n">~250</div><div class="t">Quality pool</div><p>The top 30% on capital discipline: buybacks, no new share issuance, low dilution, free-cash-flow yield, ROE, margins.</p></div>
      <div class="step"><div class="n">Rank</div><div class="t">Strongest trends</div><p>The pool ranked by its 50- vs 200-day average and its 6-month return (skipping the latest month).</p></div>
      <div class="step"><div class="n">3</div><div class="t">Held, a third each</div><p>On the first trading day of each month: keep a stock while it's still in the top 6, replace the rest from the top.</p></div>
    </div>
    <div class="callout">Why both filters: trend alone picks big winners and big blow-ups; the quality pool kept most of the winners and cut the
      blow-ups by about two-thirds. Holding only three concentrates the money in the strongest trends — fewer names earned more in every
      period tested, at the cost of bigger single-stock swings.</div>
  </div>

  <div class="card">
    <h2>27 years of backtest</h2>
    <p class="sub" id="bt-sub">Monthly, after trading costs, with companies that later went bust or were delisted included.</p>
    <div class="stat6" id="bt-stats"></div>
    <div class="chart-head" style="margin-top:14px">
      <div><h3>Growth of $10,000</h3><p class="sub">Log scale — equal distances mean equal percentage gains.</p></div>
      <div class="legend"><span><i style="background:var(--updraft)"></i>Updraft</span><span><i style="background:var(--spy)"></i>S&amp;P 500</span></div>
    </div>
    <div class="chartbox"><canvas id="c-growth" role="img" aria-label="Growth of ten thousand dollars, Updraft versus S&P 500"></canvas></div>
    <details><summary>View as table</summary><table id="t-growth"></table></details>
  </div>

  <div class="grid2">
    <div class="card">
      <div class="chart-head"><div><h3>Every calendar year</h3><p class="sub">First and last years are partial.</p></div>
        <div class="legend"><span><i class="band" style="background:var(--updraft);opacity:1"></i>Updraft</span><span><i class="band" style="background:var(--spy);opacity:1"></i>S&amp;P 500</span></div></div>
      <div class="chartbox sm"><canvas id="c-years" role="img" aria-label="Calendar-year returns"></canvas></div>
      <details><summary>View as table</summary><table id="t-years"></table></details>
    </div>
    <div class="card">
      <div class="chart-head"><div><h3>The falls along the way</h3><p class="sub">Distance below the previous peak at each month-end.</p></div>
        <div class="legend"><span><i style="background:var(--updraft)"></i>Updraft</span><span><i style="background:var(--spy)"></i>S&amp;P 500</span></div></div>
      <div class="chartbox sm"><canvas id="c-dd" role="img" aria-label="Drawdowns"></canvas></div>
    </div>
  </div>
  <div class="card">
    <div class="chart-head"><div><h3>What any 12 months looked like</h3><p class="sub" id="dist-sub">Share of all 12-month periods by return.</p></div>
      <div class="legend"><span><i class="band" style="background:var(--updraft);opacity:1"></i>Updraft</span><span><i class="band" style="background:var(--spy);opacity:1"></i>S&amp;P 500</span></div></div>
    <div class="chartbox sm"><canvas id="c-dist" role="img" aria-label="Distribution of 12-month returns"></canvas></div>
  </div>

  <div class="card">
    <h2>What it could grow to</h2>
    <p class="sub">20,000 simulated futures built from the real monthly returns (in 12-month blocks, so crashes and rallies stay clustered).
      Enter your amounts; the ranges scale exactly. Charts shade the middle half of outcomes; tables show the wider 10th–90th range.</p>
    <div class="calc">
      <div><div class="muted" style="margin-bottom:4px">Scenario</div><div class="seg" id="scen">
        <button data-s="planning" aria-pressed="true">Planning case</button><button data-s="history" aria-pressed="false">History repeats</button></div></div>
      <label>Lump sum ($)<input id="in-lump" type="number" min="0" step="1000" value="10000"></label>
      <label>Monthly SIP ($)<input id="in-sip" type="number" min="0" step="100" value="1000"></label>
    </div>
    <p class="muted" id="scen-note"></p>
    <div class="grid2" style="margin-top:6px">
      <div>
        <div class="chart-head" style="margin-bottom:6px"><div><h3>Lump sum</h3><p class="sub" id="lump-sub"></p></div></div>
        <div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:6px" id="leg-lump"></div>
        <div class="chartbox sm"><canvas id="c-lump" role="img" aria-label="Lump-sum projection"></canvas></div>
        <table class="proj" id="tb-lump"></table>
      </div>
      <div>
        <div class="chart-head" style="margin-bottom:6px"><div><h3>Monthly SIP</h3><p class="sub" id="sip-sub"></p></div></div>
        <div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:6px" id="leg-sip"></div>
        <div class="chartbox sm"><canvas id="c-sip" role="img" aria-label="Monthly investment projection"></canvas></div>
        <table class="proj" id="tb-sip"></table>
      </div>
    </div>
    <div class="callout">Read this honestly: the backtest's last few years were exceptionally strong (the 2024–26 AI rally). The
      <b>planning case</b> removes half of Updraft's historical edge over the S&amp;P and is the number to plan with; "history repeats" is the
      optimistic end. Single stocks are a third of the money each, so falls of 30–35% will happen along the way.</div>
  </div>
</section>
</main>

<footer class="wrap">Educational paper-trading demonstration — not investment advice. Live prices and positions from Alpaca (paper account,
IEX feed); rankings built daily from Sharadar fundamentals and prices; backtest 1999–2026 with point-in-time stock lists.</footer>

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    const tb = $("holdings").querySelector("tbody"); tb.textContent = "";
    if (!p.positions.length) { const tr = tb.insertRow(); const td = tr.insertCell(); td.colSpan = 6; td.className = "empty"; td.textContent = "No positions yet — the first rebalance buys the top 3."; }
    for (const r of p.positions) {
      const tr = tb.insertRow();
      const a = tr.insertCell(); const t = document.createElement("div"); t.className = "tick"; t.textContent = r.symbol;
      const co = document.createElement("div"); co.className = "co"; co.textContent = [r.name, r.sector].filter(Boolean).join(" · "); a.append(t, co);
      const w = tr.insertCell(); w.className = "hide-s"; const wb = document.createElement("div"); wb.className = "wbar";
      const tr2 = document.createElement("span"); const fill = document.createElement("b"); fill.style.width = Math.min(100, (r.weight || 0) * 100 / 0.5) + "%"; tr2.append(fill);
      const wl = document.createElement("small"); wl.textContent = pct(r.weight, 0).replace("+", ""); wb.append(tr2, wl); w.append(wb);
      const v = tr.insertCell(); v.className = "r"; v.textContent = usd(r.value);
      const g = tr.insertCell(); g.className = "r"; g.textContent = pct(r.pl_pct); signCls(g, r.pl_pct);
      const d = tr.insertCell(); d.className = "r hide-s"; d.textContent = pct(r.today); signCls(d, r.today);
      const k = tr.insertCell(); k.className = "r"; const rk = document.createElement("span"); rk.className = "rank"; rk.textContent = r.rank_now ? "#" + r.rank_now : "—"; k.append(rk);
    }
    setText($("cash-note"), `Cash ${usd(p.cash)} (about 1% is kept back for fills). Prices update every 30 seconds while this page is open.`);
    setText($("updated"), "Live · " + new Date().toLocaleTimeString([], { hour: "2-digit", minute: "2-digit" })); $("dot").style.background = "#3fbf6b";
  } catch (e) { setText($("updated"), "Live data unavailable"); $("dot").style.background = "#f07068"; }
}
let rk = null;
async function loadRanking() {
  try {
    rk = await get("/api/ranking");
    if (!rk.ranked || !rk.ranked.length) {          // the Space rebuilds the ranking for about a minute after a restart
      setText($("short-note"), "Today's ranking is being rebuilt — it appears here in about a minute."); setTimeout(loadRanking, 20000); return;
    }
    showShortlist();
  }
  catch (e) { setText($("short-note"), "The ranking is unavailable right now."); }
}
function showShortlist() {
  if (!rk || !rk.ranked || !rk.ranked.length) return;
  const N = (rk.rule && rk.rule.names) || 3, K = (rk.rule && rk.rule.keep_within) || 6;
  const order = rk.ranked.map(r => r.ticker), rank = Object.fromEntries(order.map((t, i) => [t, i + 1]));
  const held = port ? port.positions.map(p => p.symbol) : null;
  let target = null;                    // the same rule as the rebalance: keep holdings in the top K, refill from the top
  if (held) {
    const kept = held.filter(t => (rank[t] || 1e9) <= K).sort((a, b) => rank[a] - rank[b]).slice(0, N);
    target = kept.concat(order.filter(t => !kept.includes(t)).slice(0, N - kept.length));
  }
  const tb = $("shortlist").querySelector("tbody"); tb.textContent = "";
  for (const r of rk.ranked.slice(0, 10)) {
    const isHeld = !!held && held.includes(r.ticker), tr = tb.insertRow();
    if (isHeld) tr.className = "is-held";
    const n = tr.insertCell(); n.className = "r"; const rc = document.createElement("span"); rc.className = "rank"; rc.textContent = "#" + r.rank; n.append(rc);
    const a = tr.insertCell(); const t = document.createElement("div"); t.className = "tick"; t.textContent = r.ticker;
    const co = document.createElement("div"); co.className = "co"; co.textContent = [r.name, r.sector].filter(Boolean).join(" · "); a.append(t, co);
    const m6 = tr.insertCell(); m6.className = "r"; m6.textContent = pct(r.ret_6m, 0); signCls(m6, r.ret_6m);
    const m1 = tr.insertCell(); m1.className = "r hide-s"; m1.textContent = pct(r.ret_1m, 0); signCls(m1, r.ret_1m);
    const q = tr.insertCell(); q.className = "r hide-s"; q.textContent = r.qcd_pct == null ? "—" : "top " + Math.max(1, Math.round((1 - r.qcd_pct) * 100)) + "%";
    const st = tr.insertCell();
    if (target) {
      const tag = document.createElement("span");
      if (isHeld && target.includes(r.ticker)) { tag.className = "tag held"; tag.textContent = "Held"; }
      else if (isHeld) { tag.className = "tag sell"; tag.textContent = "Held · would sell"; }
      else if (target.includes(r.ticker)) { tag.className = "tag buy"; tag.textContent = "Would buy"; }
      if (tag.className) st.append(tag);
    }
  }
  const asOf = rk.prices_as_of ? new Date(rk.prices_as_of + "T12:00:00").toLocaleDateString([], { day: "numeric", month: "short" }) : null;
  setText($("short-sub"), `The ${rk.pool || "~250"} stocks in the quality pool, ranked by trend${asOf ? " on closes of " + asOf : ""} and rebuilt every night. The three holdings are picked from this list at each monthly rebalance.`);
  let note = "";
  if (held && target) {
    const sells = held.filter(x => !target.includes(x)), buys = target.filter(x => !held.includes(x));
    if (!held.length) note = `The first rebalance would buy ${buys.join(", ")}.`;
    else if (!sells.length) note = `If the rebalance ran today: no change — ${held.join(", ")} ${held.length > 1 ? "are all" : "is"} still in the top ${K}.`;
    else note = `If the rebalance ran today: sell ${sells.map(x => x + (rank[x] ? ` (now #${rank[x]})` : " (left the pool)")).join(", ")}; buy ${buys.join(", ")}.`;
    const ahead = order.slice(0, N).filter(x => !held.includes(x) && !buys.includes(x));
    if (ahead.length) note += ` ${ahead.join(", ")} ${ahead.length > 1 ? "rank" : "ranks"} in today's top ${N} but ${ahead.length > 1 ? "are" : "is"} bought only when a holding drops out of the top ${K} — the buffer avoids trading on small rank changes.`;
  }
  setText($("short-note"), (note + ` Quality = percentile on capital discipline among the ${rk.liquid_usd || ""} tradable stocks of the 1,000 largest; the top 30% form the pool.`).replace("among the  ", "among the ").trim());
}
async function loadStatus() {
  try {
    const s = await get("/api/status"); stat = s;
    setText($("k-next"), s.next_rebalance ? new Date(s.next_rebalance + "T12:00:00").toLocaleDateString([], { day: "numeric", month: "short" }) : "—");
    setText($("k-next-s"), s.done_this_month ? "this month's rebalance is done" : (s.market_open ? "market open" : "first trading day of the month"));
  } catch (e) {}
}

/* ---------- HISTORY */
let hist = null, stat = null, histAt = 0;
const fmtDay = d => new Date(d + "T12:00:00").toLocaleDateString([], { day: "numeric", month: "short", year: "numeric" });
const fmtHeld = d => d == null ? "—" : d < 60 ? `${d} day${d === 1 ? "" : "s"}` : `${(d / 30.44).toFixed(1)} months`;
const usdSigned = x => x == null ? "—" : (x >= 0 ? "+" : "−") + usd(Math.abs(x));
function el(tag, cls, text) { const e = document.createElement(tag); if (cls) e.className = cls; if (text != null) e.textContent = text; return e; }
function tile(label, value, sub, cls) {
  const t = el("div", "tile"); t.append(el("div", "l", label)); const v = el("div", "v", value); if (cls) v.classList.add(cls);
  t.append(v, el("div", "s", sub)); return t;
}
function periodRet(d0, d1) {        // fund and S&P from the last close before d0 to the last close before d1 (or now)
  if (!perf || !perf.dates || perf.dates.length < 2) return null;
  const D = perf.dates; let a = -1, b = D.length - 1;
  for (let i = 0; i < D.length; i++) { if (D[i] < d0) a = i; if (d1 && D[i] < d1) b = i; }
  a = Math.max(a, 0); if (b <= a) return null;
  return [perf.strategy[b] / perf.strategy[a] - 1, perf.spy[a] && perf.spy[b] ? perf.spy[b] / perf.spy[a] - 1 : null];
}
async function loadHistory() {
  if (hist && Date.now() - histAt < 120000) return;
  try { hist = await get("/api/history"); histAt = Date.now(); renderHistory(); }
  catch (e) { $("h-events").textContent = ""; $("h-events").append(el("p", "empty", "History unavailable right now: " + e.message)); }
}
function renderHistory() {
  const h = hist, S = h.summary, nameOf = r => [r.name, r.symbol].filter(Boolean)[0];
  const next = stat && stat.next_rebalance ? new Date(stat.next_rebalance + "T12:00:00").toLocaleDateString([], { day: "numeric", month: "short" }) : "the next rebalance";
  const st = $("h-stats"); st.textContent = "";
  st.append(
    tile("Rebalances", String(S.rebalances), S.first ? "since " + fmtDay(S.first) : "none yet"),
    tile("Stocks replaced", S.swaps_per_rebalance == null ? "—" : S.swaps_per_rebalance.toFixed(1) + " of 3",
      S.swaps_per_rebalance == null ? `none yet — the first possible change is ${next}` : "per rebalance, on average"),
    tile("Sold at a profit", S.win_rate == null ? "—" : pct(S.win_rate, 0).replace("+", ""),
      S.win_rate == null ? "no position has been sold yet" : `${S.closed} sold · average ${pct(S.avg_return)}`),
    tile("Average holding", S.avg_days == null ? "—" : fmtHeld(Math.round(S.avg_days)),
      S.best ? `best ${S.best.symbol} ${pct(S.best.return, 0)} · worst ${S.worst.symbol} ${pct(S.worst.return, 0)}` : "of the positions sold so far"));
  const box = $("h-events"); box.textContent = "";
  if (!h.events.length) box.append(el("p", "empty", "No rebalance yet — the first one buys the top 3."));
  h.events.forEach((e, i) => {
    const ev = el("div", "ev"), left = el("div", "ev-date"), body = el("div", "ev-body");
    const b = el("b"); if (i === 0) b.append(el("i", "now")); b.append(document.createTextNode(fmtDay(e.date)));
    left.append(b, el("span", null, e.first ? "Fund started" : i === 0 ? "Current portfolio" : "Monthly rebalance"));
    const r = periodRet(e.date, i > 0 ? h.events[i - 1].date : null);
    if (r) {
      const pp = el("div", "ev-perf"); pp.append(document.createTextNode((i === 0 ? "Held since: " : "While held: ") + "Updraft "));
      const u = el("b", null, pct(r[0])); signCls(u, r[0]); pp.append(u, document.createTextNode(" · S&P 500 " + pct(r[1]) + (i === 0 ? " so far" : "")));
      body.append(pp);
    }
    const row = (k, items) => { if (!items.length) return; const rw = el("div", "ev-row"); rw.append(el("span", "ev-k", k), ...items); body.append(rw); };
    const chip = (sym, cls, title) => { const c = el("span", "tag " + cls, sym); if (title) c.title = title; return c; };
    const names = {}; for (const p of h.open.concat(h.closed)) names[p.symbol] = p.name;
    row("Bought", e.bought.map(x => chip(x, "buy", names[x])));
    row("Sold", e.sold.flatMap(x => { const g = el("span", null, pct(x.return)); signCls(g, x.return);
      return [chip(x.symbol, "sell", x.name), g, el("span", "muted", `after ${fmtHeld(x.days)} · ${usdSigned(x.pnl)}`)]; }));
    row("Kept", e.kept.map(x => chip(x, "held", names[x])));
    const notes = [];
    if (e.sold.length) notes.push(`${e.sold.map(x => x.symbol).join(", ")} dropped out of the top 6`);
    if (e.resplit.length) notes.push("re-split: " + e.resplit.map(x => `${x.value > 0 ? "topped up" : "trimmed"} ${x.symbol} ${usd(Math.abs(x.value))}`).join(", "));
    if (e.added) notes.push(`${usd(e.added)} added since the previous rebalance`);
    notes.push(`${usd(e.traded)} traded`);
    body.append(el("div", "ev-small", notes.join(" · ")));
    ev.append(left, body); box.append(ev);
  });
  const tb = $("h-positions").querySelector("tbody"); tb.textContent = "";
  const rows = h.open.map(x => ({ ...x, held: true })).concat(h.closed);
  if (!rows.length) { const tr = tb.insertRow(); const td = tr.insertCell(); td.colSpan = 7; td.className = "empty"; td.textContent = "No positions yet."; }
  for (const x of rows) {
    const tr = tb.insertRow(); if (x.held) tr.className = "is-held";
    const a = tr.insertCell(); a.append(el("div", "tick", x.symbol), el("div", "co", x.name || ""));
    const bd = tr.insertCell(); bd.className = "hide-s"; bd.textContent = fmtDay(x.entered);
    const sc = tr.insertCell(); if (x.held) sc.append(el("span", "tag held", "Still held")); else sc.textContent = fmtDay(x.exited);
    const hd = tr.insertCell(); hd.className = "r hide-s"; hd.textContent = fmtHeld(x.days);
    const pi = tr.insertCell(); pi.className = "r hide-s"; pi.textContent = usd(x.put_in);
    const pl = tr.insertCell(); pl.className = "r"; pl.textContent = usdSigned(x.pnl); signCls(pl, x.pnl);
    const rt = tr.insertCell(); rt.className = "r"; rt.textContent = pct(x.return); signCls(rt, x.return);
  }
  setText($("h-note"), (h.pending_deposits > 0 ? `${usd(h.pending_deposits)} added since the last rebalance — it is invested at the next one. ` : "") +
    "Positions still held are valued at today's price. Updates every few minutes.");
}

/* ---------- THE STRATEGY */
let strat = null, scen = "planning";
async function loadStrategy() {
  if (strat) return;
  try { strat = await get("/static/data/strategy.json"); } catch (e) { setText($("bt-sub"), "Backtest data unavailable."); return; }
  const k = strat.stats, sp = strat.spy, y = strat.rolling_12m, box = $("bt-stats"); box.textContent = "";
  const tiles = [["Return per year", pct(k.cagr), `S&P 500 ${pct(sp.cagr)}`], ["Worst fall", pct(k.max_dd, 0), `S&P 500 ${pct(sp.max_dd, 0)}`],
    ["Sharpe ratio", k.sharpe.toFixed(2), `S&P 500 ${sp.sharpe.toFixed(2)}`], ["Median 12 months", pct(y.median, 0), `S&P 500 ${pct(y.spy_median, 0)}`],
    ["12 months in profit", Math.round(y.share_positive * 100) + "%", `S&P 500 ${Math.round(y.spy_share_positive * 100)}%`],
    ["Beat the S&P over 12 months", Math.round(y.share_beat_spy * 100) + "%", "of all start months"]];
  for (const [l, v, s] of tiles) { const t = document.createElement("div"); t.className = "tile";
    for (const [c, x] of [["l", l], ["v", v], ["s", s]]) { const d = document.createElement("div"); d.className = c; d.textContent = x; t.append(d); } box.append(t); }
  setText($("bt-sub"), `${strat.period}, monthly, after trading costs; companies that later went bust or were delisted are included. Before the 2024–26 AI rally (2013–2023): ${pct(k.cagr_2013_2023)} a year vs S&P ${pct(sp.cagr_2013_2023)}.`);
  setText($("dist-sub"), `Share of all ${y.n} rolling 12-month periods by return. Updraft's middle 80% ran from ${pct(y.p10, 0)} to ${pct(y.p90, 0)}.`);
  fillTables(); drawStrategy();
}
function fillTables() {
  const g = strat.growth, tg = $("t-growth"); tg.textContent = "";
  const h = tg.createTHead().insertRow(); for (const x of ["Year-end", "Updraft", "S&P 500"]) { const th = document.createElement("th"); th.textContent = x; h.append(th); }
  const b = tg.createTBody();
  g.dates.forEach((d, i) => { if (d.endsWith("-12") || i === g.dates.length - 1) { const r = b.insertRow(); for (const x of [d, usd(g.updraft[i]), usd(g.spy[i])]) r.insertCell().textContent = x; } });
  const ty = $("t-years"); ty.textContent = ""; const h2 = ty.createTHead().insertRow();
  for (const x of ["Year", "Updraft", "S&P 500"]) { const th = document.createElement("th"); th.textContent = x; h2.append(th); }
  const b2 = ty.createTBody(); strat.years.labels.forEach((yr, i) => { const r = b2.insertRow(); for (const x of [yr, pct(strat.years.updraft[i]), pct(strat.years.spy[i])]) r.insertCell().textContent = x; });
}
function bars(label, data, color) {
  return { label, data, backgroundColor: color, borderRadius: 4, borderSkipped: "start", maxBarThickness: 24, categoryPercentage: 0.72, barPercentage: 0.88, pointStyle: "rect" };
}
function drawStrategy() {
  if (!strat) return;
  const u = css("--updraft"), s = css("--spy"), g = strat.growth;
  mk("c-growth", { type: "line", data: { labels: g.dates, datasets: [line("Updraft", g.updraft, u), line("S&P 500", g.spy, s)] },
    options: baseOpts({ plugins: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins, { endLabels: { enabled: true, format: (ds, v) => usd(v) },
      tooltip: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins.tooltip, { callbacks: { label: c => `${usd(c.parsed.y)}   ${c.dataset.label}` } }) }),
      scales: { x: Object.assign(baseOpts().scales.x, { ticks: { color: css("--muted"), maxTicksLimit: 10, maxRotation: 0, callback: function (v) { return this.getLabelForValue(v).slice(0, 4); } } }),
        y: Object.assign(baseOpts().scales.y, { type: "logarithmic", ticks: { color: css("--muted"), callback: v => [1e4, 3e4, 1e5, 3e5, 1e6, 3e6, 1e7, 3e7].includes(v) ? usdShort(v) : null } }) } }) });
  const Y = strat.years;
  mk("c-years", { type: "bar", data: { labels: Y.labels.map(x => "’" + x.slice(2)), datasets: [bars("Updraft", Y.updraft, u), bars("S&P 500", Y.spy, s)] },
    options: baseOpts({ interaction: { mode: "index", intersect: false }, plugins: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins, {
      tooltip: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins.tooltip, { callbacks: { title: c => "20" + c[0].label.slice(1), label: c => `${pct(c.parsed.y)}   ${c.dataset.label}` } }) }),
      scales: { x: Object.assign(baseOpts().scales.x, { ticks: { color: css("--muted"), maxTicksLimit: 14, maxRotation: 0 } }),
        y: Object.assign(baseOpts().scales.y, { ticks: { color: css("--muted"), callback: v => pct(v, 0) } }) } }) });
  const DD = strat.drawdown;
  mk("c-dd", { type: "line", data: { labels: DD.dates, datasets: [line("Updraft", DD.updraft, u, { fill: "origin", backgroundColor: alpha(u, 0.10) }), line("S&P 500", DD.spy, s)] },
    options: baseOpts({ plugins: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins, { tooltip: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins.tooltip, { callbacks: { label: c => `${pct(c.parsed.y, 0)}   ${c.dataset.label}` } }) }),
      scales: { x: Object.assign(baseOpts().scales.x, { ticks: { color: css("--muted"), maxTicksLimit: 7, maxRotation: 0, callback: function (v) { return this.getLabelForValue(v).slice(0, 4); } } }),
        y: Object.assign(baseOpts().scales.y, { max: 0, ticks: { color: css("--muted"), callback: v => pct(v, 0) } }) } }) });
  const E = strat.dist12.edges, lab = E.slice(0, -1).map((e, i) => i === E.length - 2 ? `≥ ${pct(e, 0)}` : (i === 0 ? `≤ ${pct(E[1], 0)}` : pct(e, 0)));
  mk("c-dist", { type: "bar", data: { labels: lab, datasets: [bars("Updraft", strat.dist12.updraft, u), bars("S&P 500", strat.dist12.spy, s)] },
    options: baseOpts({ plugins: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins, { tooltip: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins.tooltip, {
      callbacks: { title: c => { const i = c[0].dataIndex; return i === 0 ? `12-month return ≤ ${pct(E[1], 0)}` : i === E.length - 2 ? `12-month return ≥ ${pct(E[i], 0)}` : `12-month return ${pct(E[i], 0)} to ${pct(E[i + 1], 0)}`; },
        label: c => `${Math.round(c.parsed.y * 100)}% of periods   ${c.dataset.label}` } }) }),
      scales: { x: Object.assign(baseOpts().scales.x, { ticks: { color: css("--muted"), maxTicksLimit: 9, maxRotation: 0 } }),
        y: Object.assign(baseOpts().scales.y, { ticks: { color: css("--muted"), callback: v => Math.round(v * 100) + "%" } }) } }) });
  drawProjections();
}
function num(id, def) { const v = parseFloat($(id).value); return isFinite(v) && v >= 0 ? v : def; }
function legendRow(el, items) {
  el.textContent = "";
  for (const [color, text, band] of items) { const s = document.createElement("span"); const i = document.createElement("i"); i.style.background = color;
    if (band) i.className = "band"; s.append(i, document.createTextNode(text)); el.append(s); }
}
function drawProjections() {
  if (!strat) return;
  const P = strat.projections, S = P[scen], B = P.spy, yrs = P.years;
  const col = scen === "planning" ? css("--plan") : css("--updraft"), spyc = css("--spy"), muted = css("--muted");
  const name = scen === "planning" ? "Updraft, planning case" : "Updraft, history repeats";
  setText($("scen-note"), scen === "planning"
    ? `Planning case: the same months with ${pct(P.planning_edge_removed, 1).replace("+", "")} a year of Updraft's edge removed — half of its historical lead over the S&P.`
    : "History repeats: Updraft's 1999–2026 monthly returns as they were — the optimistic end, flattered by the 2024–26 rally.");
  for (const kind of ["lump", "sip"]) {
    const amt = kind === "lump" ? num("in-lump", 10000) : num("in-sip", 1000), d = S[kind], b = B[kind];
    const scale = a => a.map(x => x * amt);
    const ds = [
      line("75th percentile", scale(d.p75), "transparent", { fill: "+1", backgroundColor: alpha(col, 0.16), endLabel: false, pointHoverRadius: 0 }),
      line("25th percentile", scale(d.p25), "transparent", { endLabel: false, pointHoverRadius: 0 }),
      line(name + " (median)", scale(d.p50), col),
      line("S&P 500 (median)", scale(b.p50), spyc)];
    if (kind === "sip") ds.push(line("Paid in", d.paid.map(x => x * amt), muted, { borderWidth: 1, endLabel: false }));
    legendRow($("leg-" + kind), [[col, "Median", false], [col, "Middle half of outcomes", true], [spyc, "S&P 500 median", false]].concat(kind === "sip" ? [[muted, "Paid in", false]] : []));
    mk("c-" + kind, { type: "line", data: { labels: yrs.map(y => y === 0 ? "Start" : y + "y"), datasets: ds },
      options: baseOpts({ plugins: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins, { endLabels: { enabled: true, format: (x, v) => usdShort(v) },
        tooltip: Object.assign(baseOpts().plugins.tooltip, { filter: it => it.datasetIndex > 1 || it.datasetIndex === 0,
          callbacks: { title: c => c[0].label === "Start" ? "Start" : "After " + c[0].label.replace("y", " years"),
            label: c => c.datasetIndex === 0 ? `${usdShort(scale(d.p25)[c.dataIndex])} – ${usdShort(c.parsed.y)}   middle half` : `${usd(c.parsed.y)}   ${c.dataset.label}` } }) }),
        scales: { x: baseOpts().scales.x, y: Object.assign(baseOpts().scales.y, { ticks: { color: css("--muted"), callback: v => usdShort(v) } }) } }) });
    const tb = $("tb-" + kind); tb.textContent = "";
    const hr = tb.createTHead().insertRow();
    for (const h of ["After", "Paid in", "Updraft median", "Range (10th–90th)", "S&P median", "Below paid in"]) { const th = document.createElement("th"); th.textContent = h; hr.append(th); }
    const body = tb.createTBody();
    for (const yr of [5, 10, 15]) {
      const r = body.insertRow(), paid = (kind === "lump" ? amt : amt * 12 * yr);
      const cells = [`${yr} years`, usd(paid), usd(d.p50[yr] * amt), `${usdShort(d.p10[yr] * amt)} – ${usdShort(d.p90[yr] * amt)}`, usd(b.p50[yr] * amt),
        Math.round(d.below_paid[yr] * 100) + "%"];
      cells.forEach((c, i) => { const td = r.insertCell(); td.textContent = c; if (i === 2) td.className = "big"; });
    }
    const m15 = d.p50[15] / (kind === "lump" ? 1 : 180), s15 = b.p50[15] / (kind === "lump" ? 1 : 180);
    setText($(kind + "-sub"), kind === "lump" ? `${usd(amt)} once. Median after 15 years: ${m15.toFixed(1)}× the money (S&P ${s15.toFixed(1)}×).`
      : `${usd(amt)} every month. Median after 15 years: ${m15.toFixed(1)}× what you paid in (S&P ${s15.toFixed(1)}×).`);
  }
}
document.querySelectorAll("#scen button").forEach(b => b.onclick = () => { scen = b.dataset.s;
  document.querySelectorAll("#scen button").forEach(x => x.setAttribute("aria-pressed", String(x === b))); drawProjections(); });
["in-lump", "in-sip"].forEach(id => $(id).addEventListener("input", () => drawProjections()));

function redrawAll() { drawLive(true); if (strat) drawStrategy(); }

/* ---------- start */
loadPortfolio(); loadPerformance(); loadStatus(); loadRanking();
setInterval(loadPortfolio, 30000); setInterval(loadStatus, 60000); setInterval(loadRanking, 600000); setInterval(loadPerformance, 60000);
if (location.hash === "#strategy" || location.hash === "#history") showTab(location.hash.slice(1));
</script>
</body>
</html>