underdog-lab / models /host_adjustment_evaluation.json
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Finalize forecast integrity and evaluation gates
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{
"candidate_boosts": [
0.0,
25.0,
50.0
],
"fitted_host_elo_boost": 99.99999999996494,
"selection_editions": [
"AC-2015",
"AC-2019",
"CA-2015",
"CA-2016",
"CA-2019",
"CA-2021",
"EC-2016",
"EC-2021",
"WC-2018"
],
"confirmation_editions": [
"AC-2024",
"CA-2024",
"EC-2024",
"WC-2022"
],
"n_selection": 82,
"n_confirmation": 18,
"evaluations": {
"0.0": {
"selection_log_loss": 0.7682781486957051,
"confirmation_log_loss": 0.7149237224255186
},
"25.0": {
"selection_log_loss": 0.7492140241392978,
"confirmation_log_loss": 0.6963029815949857
},
"50.0": {
"selection_log_loss": 0.7346874337302839,
"confirmation_log_loss": 0.6826786366130198
},
"99.99999999996494": {
"selection_log_loss": 0.7189889474431906,
"confirmation_log_loss": 0.6702670728206412
}
},
"edition_cluster_bootstrap_95": {
"selection": [
-0.10492565189612492,
-0.01744263150971822
],
"confirmation": [
-0.1952026997526005,
0.18613459077576663
]
},
"adopted": false,
"criterion": "A host boost is adopted only if the fitted one-parameter value beats no boost on both selection and completed-edition confirmation data, with edition-cluster bootstrap intervals entirely below zero."
}