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| { | |
| "baseline": "shipped global temperature calibration", | |
| "method": "regularized five-parameter multiclass vector scaling", | |
| "rolling_origin_regularization_scores": { | |
| "0.0001": 0.7525188824528779, | |
| "0.001": 0.7526886773719569, | |
| "0.01": 0.7541321350490496, | |
| "0.1": 0.7578710034159443 | |
| }, | |
| "selected_regularization": 0.0001, | |
| "parameters": [ | |
| 1.0484497532436863, | |
| 0.8770152538723214, | |
| 0.9388567787680596, | |
| 0.8290372459085292, | |
| 0.49591824484502284 | |
| ], | |
| "slices": { | |
| "selection_descriptive": { | |
| "baseline": { | |
| "n": 7914, | |
| "log_loss": 0.7917934118271145, | |
| "brier": 0.4641057448243238, | |
| "rps": 0.1471617663399534, | |
| "ece": 0.00846231279824596 | |
| }, | |
| "candidate": { | |
| "n": 7914, | |
| "log_loss": 0.7651349976317772, | |
| "brier": 0.44767783933088434, | |
| "rps": 0.14003929365045623, | |
| "ece": 0.009059596794553856 | |
| }, | |
| "blocked_log_loss_difference_95": [ | |
| -0.032996290530500585, | |
| -0.020046464365746766 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "robustness_2026_viewed": { | |
| "baseline": { | |
| "n": 351, | |
| "log_loss": 0.7931215868621926, | |
| "brier": 0.46119749518248465, | |
| "rps": 0.1453477516943903, | |
| "ece": 0.04067188143421708 | |
| }, | |
| "candidate": { | |
| "n": 351, | |
| "log_loss": 0.7638626804396227, | |
| "brier": 0.44661751123246113, | |
| "rps": 0.13839649327242182, | |
| "ece": 0.035138558590492315 | |
| }, | |
| "blocked_log_loss_difference_95": [ | |
| -0.05139728352686812, | |
| -0.005637635590483102 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "robustness_2026_neutral_viewed": { | |
| "baseline": { | |
| "n": 143, | |
| "log_loss": 0.7916431257734952, | |
| "brier": 0.45920689749839105, | |
| "rps": 0.1474630439153726, | |
| "ece": 0.10246247217248158 | |
| }, | |
| "candidate": { | |
| "n": 143, | |
| "log_loss": 0.6571008523753717, | |
| "brier": 0.37555349693483997, | |
| "rps": 0.10922584831530416, | |
| "ece": 0.16122760848044432 | |
| }, | |
| "blocked_log_loss_difference_95": [ | |
| -0.14603544930037682, | |
| -0.12198283454688964 | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "research_gate_passed": false, | |
| "production_adopted": false, | |
| "claim_boundary": "The 2026 slice has already been viewed and used in prior model decisions. It is a robustness diagnostic, not pristine confirmation. Production adoption requires a future pre-registered evaluation period." | |
| } | |