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4664
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4665
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4667
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4668
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4669
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4670
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4671
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4673
+ },
4674
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4675
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+ "87": "L"
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+ },
4684
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+ "87": "L"
4693
+ },
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4703
+ },
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4705
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4710
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4711
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4712
+ "87": "L"
4713
+ },
4714
+ "CDFGHIJK": {
4715
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4716
+ "77": "F",
4717
+ "79": "C",
4718
+ "80": "K",
4719
+ "81": "J",
4720
+ "82": "H",
4721
+ "85": "G",
4722
+ "87": "I"
4723
+ },
4724
+ "CDFGHIJL": {
4725
+ "74": "D",
4726
+ "77": "F",
4727
+ "79": "C",
4728
+ "80": "I",
4729
+ "81": "J",
4730
+ "82": "H",
4731
+ "85": "G",
4732
+ "87": "L"
4733
+ },
4734
+ "CDFGHIKL": {
4735
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4736
+ "77": "F",
4737
+ "79": "C",
4738
+ "80": "K",
4739
+ "81": "I",
4740
+ "82": "H",
4741
+ "85": "G",
4742
+ "87": "L"
4743
+ },
4744
+ "CDFGHJKL": {
4745
+ "74": "D",
4746
+ "77": "F",
4747
+ "79": "C",
4748
+ "80": "K",
4749
+ "81": "J",
4750
+ "82": "H",
4751
+ "85": "G",
4752
+ "87": "L"
4753
+ },
4754
+ "CDFGIJKL": {
4755
+ "74": "D",
4756
+ "77": "F",
4757
+ "79": "C",
4758
+ "80": "K",
4759
+ "81": "I",
4760
+ "82": "J",
4761
+ "85": "G",
4762
+ "87": "L"
4763
+ },
4764
+ "CDFHIJKL": {
4765
+ "74": "D",
4766
+ "77": "F",
4767
+ "79": "C",
4768
+ "80": "K",
4769
+ "81": "I",
4770
+ "82": "H",
4771
+ "85": "J",
4772
+ "87": "L"
4773
+ },
4774
+ "CDGHIJKL": {
4775
+ "74": "C",
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4778
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4779
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4780
+ "82": "J",
4781
+ "85": "G",
4782
+ "87": "L"
4783
+ },
4784
+ "CEFGHIJK": {
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+ "82": "H",
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+ "87": "I"
4793
+ },
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+ "CEFGHIJL": {
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+ "82": "H",
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+ "85": "G",
4802
+ "87": "L"
4803
+ },
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+ "CEFGHIKL": {
4805
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+ "77": "F",
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+ "79": "E",
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+ "80": "K",
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+ "81": "I",
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+ "82": "H",
4811
+ "85": "G",
4812
+ "87": "L"
4813
+ },
4814
+ "CEFGHJKL": {
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4819
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4820
+ "82": "H",
4821
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4822
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4823
+ },
4824
+ "CEFGIJKL": {
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+ "87": "L"
4833
+ },
4834
+ "CEFHIJKL": {
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+ },
4844
+ "CEGHIJKL": {
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+ "81": "I",
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+ "85": "J",
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+ "87": "L"
4853
+ },
4854
+ "CFGHIJKL": {
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4860
+ "82": "J",
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+ },
4864
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4870
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4873
+ },
4874
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4883
+ },
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4893
+ },
4894
+ "DEFGHJKL": {
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4898
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4899
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4900
+ "82": "H",
4901
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4903
+ },
4904
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4910
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4913
+ },
4914
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4918
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4920
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+ },
4924
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4930
+ "82": "H",
4931
+ "85": "J",
4932
+ "87": "L"
4933
+ },
4934
+ "DFGHIJKL": {
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+ "77": "F",
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+ "79": "H",
4938
+ "80": "K",
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4940
+ "82": "J",
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+ },
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+ "EFGHIJKL": {
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+ "82": "H",
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+ "85": "J",
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+ "87": "L"
4953
+ }
4954
+ },
4955
+ "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage"
4956
+ }
docs/submission-checklist.md CHANGED
@@ -1,58 +1,60 @@
1
- # Hackathon Submission Checklist — Underdog Lab
2
-
3
- _Last updated: June 12, 2026_
4
-
5
- ## Pre-Submission Verification
6
-
7
- - [ ] **Space deployed** at https://huggingface.co/spaces/sammoftah/underdog-lab
8
- - [ ] **Space runs** on `cpu-basic` (warm start verified)
9
- - [ ] **Cold start** smoke test passes (open Space in incognito window)
10
- - [ ] **World Cup 2026** tab loads all 48 teams and 72 fixtures
11
- - [ ] **Challenge** tab: select match → baseline appears → scenario extracts → probabilities adjust → reveal works
12
- - [ ] **Scenario Stress Test** slider moves probabilities monotonically
13
- - [ ] **Tiny Model Lab** shows real metrics (no placeholders)
14
- - [ ] **Mobile** smoke test passes (one phone screenshot)
15
- - [ ] **No cloud inference** requirement verified (network tab: no external API calls to LLM providers)
16
- - [ ] **Model parameter count** documented and ≤32B
17
- - [ ] **License** checked (MIT for code, check model license)
18
-
19
- ## Model & Data
20
-
21
- - [ ] **Base model benchmarked** against frozen test set (run `scripts/benchmark_gguf.py`)
22
- - [ ] **Tuned model benchmarked** or negative result documented
23
- - [ ] **Selected GGUF** published on Hugging Face Hub (link: _______________)
24
- - [ ] **LoRA adapter** published (if tuned) (link: _______________)
25
- - [ ] **Training dataset** published on Hugging Face Hub (link: _______________)
26
- - [ ] **Model card** published (taxonomy, limitations, evaluation, provenance)
27
- - [ ] **Dataset card** published (provenance, review status, split information)
28
- - [ ] **Training config** archived alongside adapter
29
- - [ ] **Evaluation manifest** frozen (`data/scenarios/evaluation_manifest.json`)
30
-
31
- ## Submission Assets
32
-
33
- - [ ] **Demo video** recorded (60–90 seconds, warm Space)
34
- - [ ] **Demo video** uploaded (YouTube or Hugging Face)
35
- - [ ] **Social post** drafted and ready to publish
36
- - [ ] **Field notes** complete with real metrics and limitations
37
- - [ ] **GitHub repo** public and README updated
38
- - [ ] **Space README** reflects current state
39
-
40
- ## Final Verification
41
-
42
- - [ ] **Tests pass**: `PYTHONPATH=src pytest` (43 tests)
43
- - [ ] **Dataset audit**: `PYTHONPATH=src python scripts/audit_dataset.py` (zero split overlap)
44
- - [ ] **No test data in training**: verified via audit script
45
- - [ ] **Evaluation manifest** up to date with current file hashes
46
- - [ ] **Deployed commit** recorded:
47
-
48
- ```text
49
- GitHub commit: ________________________________
50
- Space revision: ________________________________
51
- Model revision: ________________________________
52
- Dataset revision: ________________________________
53
  ```
54
 
55
- ## Submission
56
 
57
- - [ ] **Submit** via hackathon platform before June 15 deadline
58
- - [ ] **Tag submission**: `git tag hackathon-submission && git push origin hackathon-submission`
 
 
 
 
1
+ # Sunday Submission Checklist
2
+
3
+ _Updated: June 13, 2026_
4
+
5
+ Run the complete machine gate:
6
+
7
+ ```bash
8
+ make sunday
9
+ ```
10
+
11
+ The generated source of truth is `results/submission_preflight.json`.
12
+
13
+ ## Machine-Verified
14
+
15
+ - [x] 48 teams and 72 group fixtures load.
16
+ - [x] Snapshot integrity and immutable forecast eligibility are tested.
17
+ - [x] Dixon-Coles model passes the 2018-2026 walk-forward ship gate.
18
+ - [x] QLoRA decision is closed and reproducible: **NO-SHIP**.
19
+ - [x] Base model plus deterministic fallback is the selected runtime.
20
+ - [x] Round-of-32 matches 73-88 match the published schedule.
21
+ - [x] All 495 Annex C third-place combinations reproduce the official table.
22
+ - [x] Knockout progression through match 104 is fixed and tested.
23
+ - [x] Dataset audit reports zero normalized overlap across splits.
24
+ - [x] Code license is MIT; base model license is Apache-2.0.
25
+ - [x] Runtime model is 360M parameters, below the 32B limit.
26
+ - [x] Space, source, adapter, dataset, field notes, and social draft URLs exist.
27
+
28
+ ## Claim Boundary
29
+
30
+ - [x] Do not claim the QLoRA adapter improved the product.
31
+ - [x] Do not claim extraction benchmark accuracy; labels are synthetic and
32
+ review-pending.
33
+ - [x] Forecasting evidence is the no-lookahead walk-forward backtest, not one
34
+ correct or incorrect match.
35
+ - [x] Do not market the Space as betting advice or a guaranteed predictor.
36
+
37
+ ## Human Actions Before Submission
38
+
39
+ - [ ] Open a cold Space session and record the verification timestamp in
40
+ `release/submission.json`.
41
+ - [ ] Complete one mobile-width smoke test and record its timestamp.
42
+ - [ ] Record and publish the 60-90 second demo; add `demo_video_url`.
43
+ - [ ] Publish `docs/social-post.md`; add `social_post_url`.
44
+ - [ ] Submit on the hackathon platform; add `hackathon_submission_url`.
45
+ - [ ] Re-run `make release-preflight`; it must print `READY_TO_SUBMIT`.
46
+ - [ ] Record the final GitHub and Space revision in the submission form.
47
+ - [ ] Tag the accepted revision:
48
+
49
+ ```bash
50
+ git tag hackathon-submission
51
+ git push origin hackathon-submission
 
52
  ```
53
 
54
+ ## Published URLs
55
 
56
+ - Space: https://huggingface.co/spaces/sammoftah/underdog-lab
57
+ - Source: https://github.com/OsamaMoftah/Football-Prediction
58
+ - Base model: https://huggingface.co/bartowski/SmolLM2-360M-Instruct-GGUF
59
+ - Evaluated adapter: https://huggingface.co/sammoftah/underdog-lab-smollm2-360m-lora
60
+ - Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/sammoftah/underdog-lab-scenarios
docs/world-cup-verification-checklist.md CHANGED
@@ -1,219 +1,57 @@
1
- # World Cup 2026 Data Verification Checklist
2
-
3
- **Snapshot cutoff:** 2026-06-12T19:45:00Z
4
- **Generated:** 2026-06-12
5
- **Sources:** https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026, https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men, https://eloratings.net/World.tsv
6
-
7
- ## Instructions
8
-
9
- - [ ] Verify all 48 teams in each group against FIFA's official draw.
10
- - [ ] Verify all 72 group fixture dates against the FIFA match schedule.
11
- - [ ] Verify recorded results against actual match outcomes.
12
- - [ ] Update Elo ratings from https://eloratings.net/World.tsv before benchmarking.
13
- - [ ] Check each box after verification. Mark discrepancies with ⚠.
14
-
15
- ## Group Teams (48 teams)
16
-
17
- | Group | Pos | Team | FIFA Rank | Elo | Host | Verified |
18
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
19
- | A | 1 | Mexico | 15 | 1881 | ✓ | ☐ |
20
- | A | 2 | South Africa | 61 | 1511 | | ☐ |
21
- | A | 3 | South Korea | 22 | 1786 | | ☐ |
22
- | A | 4 | Czechia | 44 | 1712 | | ☐ |
23
- | B | 1 | Canada | 27 | 1788 | ✓ | ☐ |
24
- | B | 2 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 71 | 1595 | | ☐ |
25
- | B | 3 | Qatar | 51 | 1421 | | ☐ |
26
- | B | 4 | Switzerland | 17 | 1891 | | ☐ |
27
- | C | 1 | Brazil | 5 | 1991 | | ☐ |
28
- | C | 2 | Morocco | 11 | 1827 | | ☐ |
29
- | C | 3 | Haiti | 84 | 1548 | | ☐ |
30
- | C | 4 | Scotland | 36 | 1782 | | ☐ |
31
- | D | 1 | United States | 14 | 1726 | ✓ | ☐ |
32
- | D | 2 | Paraguay | 39 | 1834 | | ☐ |
33
- | D | 3 | Australia | 26 | 1777 | | ☐ |
34
- | D | 4 | Turkey | 25 | 1911 | | ☐ |
35
- | E | 1 | Germany | 9 | 1932 | | ☐ |
36
- | E | 2 | Curacao | 82 | 1434 | | ☐ |
37
- | E | 3 | Ivory Coast | 42 | 1695 | | ☐ |
38
- | E | 4 | Ecuador | 23 | 1938 | | ☐ |
39
- | F | 1 | Netherlands | 7 | 1948 | | ☐ |
40
- | F | 2 | Japan | 18 | 1906 | | ☐ |
41
- | F | 3 | Sweden | 43 | 1712 | | ☐ |
42
- | F | 4 | Tunisia | 40 | 1628 | | ☐ |
43
- | G | 1 | Belgium | 8 | 1894 | | ☐ |
44
- | G | 2 | Egypt | 34 | 1696 | | ☐ |
45
- | G | 3 | Iran | 20 | 1772 | | ☐ |
46
- | G | 4 | New Zealand | 86 | 1562 | | ☐ |
47
- | H | 1 | Spain | 1 | 2157 | | ☐ |
48
- | H | 2 | Cape Verde | 68 | 1578 | | ☐ |
49
- | H | 3 | Saudi Arabia | 60 | 1576 | | ☐ |
50
- | H | 4 | Uruguay | 16 | 1892 | | ☐ |
51
- | I | 1 | France | 3 | 2063 | | ☐ |
52
- | I | 2 | Senegal | 19 | 1860 | | ☐ |
53
- | I | 3 | Iraq | 58 | 1607 | | ☐ |
54
- | I | 4 | Norway | 29 | 1914 | | ☐ |
55
- | J | 1 | Argentina | 2 | 2115 | | ☐ |
56
- | J | 2 | Algeria | 35 | 1772 | | ☐ |
57
- | J | 3 | Austria | 24 | 1830 | | ☐ |
58
- | J | 4 | Jordan | 66 | 1680 | | ☐ |
59
- | K | 1 | Portugal | 6 | 1989 | | ☐ |
60
- | K | 2 | DR Congo | 56 | 1652 | | ☐ |
61
- | K | 3 | Uzbekistan | 50 | 1714 | | ☐ |
62
- | K | 4 | Colombia | 13 | 1982 | | ☐ |
63
- | L | 1 | England | 4 | 2024 | | ☐ |
64
- | L | 2 | Croatia | 10 | 1912 | | ☐ |
65
- | L | 3 | Ghana | 72 | 1510 | | ☐ |
66
- | L | 4 | Panama | 30 | 1730 | | ☐ |
67
-
68
- ## Group Fixtures (72 matches)
69
-
70
- ### Group A
71
-
72
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
73
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
74
- | WC26-001 | 2026-06-11 | Mexico | South Africa | 2-0 (played) | ☐ |
75
- | WC26-002 | 2026-06-11 | South Korea | Czechia | 2-1 (played) | ☐ |
76
- | WC26-003 | 2026-06-18 | Czechia | South Africa | Scheduled 2026-06-18 | ☐ |
77
- | WC26-004 | 2026-06-18 | Mexico | South Korea | Scheduled 2026-06-18 | ☐ |
78
- | WC26-005 | 2026-06-24 | Czechia | Mexico | Scheduled 2026-06-24 | ☐ |
79
- | WC26-006 | 2026-06-24 | South Africa | South Korea | Scheduled 2026-06-24 | ☐ |
80
-
81
- ### Group B
82
-
83
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
84
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
85
- | WC26-007 | 2026-06-12 | Canada | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Scheduled 2026-06-12 | ☐ |
86
- | WC26-008 | 2026-06-13 | Qatar | Switzerland | Scheduled 2026-06-13 | ☐ |
87
- | WC26-009 | 2026-06-18 | Switzerland | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Scheduled 2026-06-18 | ☐ |
88
- | WC26-010 | 2026-06-18 | Canada | Qatar | Scheduled 2026-06-18 | ☐ |
89
- | WC26-011 | 2026-06-24 | Switzerland | Canada | Scheduled 2026-06-24 | ☐ |
90
- | WC26-012 | 2026-06-24 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Qatar | Scheduled 2026-06-24 | ☐ |
91
-
92
- ### Group C
93
-
94
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
95
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
96
- | WC26-013 | 2026-06-13 | Brazil | Morocco | Scheduled 2026-06-13 | ☐ |
97
- | WC26-014 | 2026-06-13 | Haiti | Scotland | Scheduled 2026-06-13 | ☐ |
98
- | WC26-015 | 2026-06-19 | Scotland | Morocco | Scheduled 2026-06-19 | ☐ |
99
- | WC26-016 | 2026-06-19 | Brazil | Haiti | Scheduled 2026-06-19 | ☐ |
100
- | WC26-017 | 2026-06-24 | Scotland | Brazil | Scheduled 2026-06-24 | ☐ |
101
- | WC26-018 | 2026-06-24 | Morocco | Haiti | Scheduled 2026-06-24 | ☐ |
102
-
103
- ### Group D
104
-
105
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
106
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
107
- | WC26-019 | 2026-06-12 | United States | Paraguay | Scheduled 2026-06-12 | ☐ |
108
- | WC26-020 | 2026-06-13 | Australia | Turkey | Scheduled 2026-06-13 | ☐ |
109
- | WC26-021 | 2026-06-19 | Turkey | Paraguay | Scheduled 2026-06-19 | ☐ |
110
- | WC26-022 | 2026-06-19 | United States | Australia | Scheduled 2026-06-19 | ☐ |
111
- | WC26-023 | 2026-06-25 | Turkey | United States | Scheduled 2026-06-25 | ☐ |
112
- | WC26-024 | 2026-06-25 | Paraguay | Australia | Scheduled 2026-06-25 | ☐ |
113
-
114
- ### Group E
115
-
116
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
117
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
118
- | WC26-025 | 2026-06-14 | Germany | Curacao | Scheduled 2026-06-14 | ☐ |
119
- | WC26-026 | 2026-06-14 | Ivory Coast | Ecuador | Scheduled 2026-06-14 | ☐ |
120
- | WC26-027 | 2026-06-20 | Ecuador | Curacao | Scheduled 2026-06-20 | ☐ |
121
- | WC26-028 | 2026-06-20 | Germany | Ivory Coast | Scheduled 2026-06-20 | ☐ |
122
- | WC26-029 | 2026-06-25 | Ecuador | Germany | Scheduled 2026-06-25 | ☐ |
123
- | WC26-030 | 2026-06-25 | Curacao | Ivory Coast | Scheduled 2026-06-25 | ☐ |
124
-
125
- ### Group F
126
-
127
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
128
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
129
- | WC26-031 | 2026-06-14 | Netherlands | Japan | Scheduled 2026-06-14 | ☐ |
130
- | WC26-032 | 2026-06-14 | Sweden | Tunisia | Scheduled 2026-06-14 | ☐ |
131
- | WC26-033 | 2026-06-20 | Tunisia | Japan | Scheduled 2026-06-20 | ☐ |
132
- | WC26-034 | 2026-06-20 | Netherlands | Sweden | Scheduled 2026-06-20 | ☐ |
133
- | WC26-035 | 2026-06-25 | Tunisia | Netherlands | Scheduled 2026-06-25 | ☐ |
134
- | WC26-036 | 2026-06-25 | Japan | Sweden | Scheduled 2026-06-25 | ☐ |
135
-
136
- ### Group G
137
-
138
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
139
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
140
- | WC26-037 | 2026-06-15 | Belgium | Egypt | Scheduled 2026-06-15 | ☐ |
141
- | WC26-038 | 2026-06-15 | Iran | New Zealand | Scheduled 2026-06-15 | ☐ |
142
- | WC26-039 | 2026-06-21 | New Zealand | Egypt | Scheduled 2026-06-21 | ☐ |
143
- | WC26-040 | 2026-06-21 | Belgium | Iran | Scheduled 2026-06-21 | ☐ |
144
- | WC26-041 | 2026-06-26 | New Zealand | Belgium | Scheduled 2026-06-26 | ☐ |
145
- | WC26-042 | 2026-06-26 | Egypt | Iran | Scheduled 2026-06-26 | ☐ |
146
-
147
- ### Group H
148
-
149
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
150
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
151
- | WC26-043 | 2026-06-15 | Spain | Cape Verde | Scheduled 2026-06-15 | ☐ |
152
- | WC26-044 | 2026-06-15 | Saudi Arabia | Uruguay | Scheduled 2026-06-15 | ☐ |
153
- | WC26-045 | 2026-06-21 | Uruguay | Cape Verde | Scheduled 2026-06-21 | ☐ |
154
- | WC26-046 | 2026-06-21 | Spain | Saudi Arabia | Scheduled 2026-06-21 | ☐ |
155
- | WC26-047 | 2026-06-26 | Uruguay | Spain | Scheduled 2026-06-26 | ☐ |
156
- | WC26-048 | 2026-06-26 | Cape Verde | Saudi Arabia | Scheduled 2026-06-26 | ☐ |
157
-
158
- ### Group I
159
-
160
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
161
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
162
- | WC26-049 | 2026-06-16 | France | Senegal | Scheduled 2026-06-16 | ☐ |
163
- | WC26-050 | 2026-06-16 | Iraq | Norway | Scheduled 2026-06-16 | ☐ |
164
- | WC26-051 | 2026-06-22 | Norway | Senegal | Scheduled 2026-06-22 | ☐ |
165
- | WC26-052 | 2026-06-22 | France | Iraq | Scheduled 2026-06-22 | ☐ |
166
- | WC26-053 | 2026-06-26 | Norway | France | Scheduled 2026-06-26 | ☐ |
167
- | WC26-054 | 2026-06-26 | Senegal | Iraq | Scheduled 2026-06-26 | ☐ |
168
-
169
- ### Group J
170
-
171
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
172
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
173
- | WC26-055 | 2026-06-16 | Argentina | Algeria | Scheduled 2026-06-16 | ☐ |
174
- | WC26-056 | 2026-06-16 | Austria | Jordan | Scheduled 2026-06-16 | ☐ |
175
- | WC26-057 | 2026-06-22 | Jordan | Algeria | Scheduled 2026-06-22 | ☐ |
176
- | WC26-058 | 2026-06-22 | Argentina | Austria | Scheduled 2026-06-22 | ☐ |
177
- | WC26-059 | 2026-06-27 | Jordan | Argentina | Scheduled 2026-06-27 | ☐ |
178
- | WC26-060 | 2026-06-27 | Algeria | Austria | Scheduled 2026-06-27 | ☐ |
179
-
180
- ### Group K
181
-
182
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
183
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
184
- | WC26-061 | 2026-06-17 | Portugal | DR Congo | Scheduled 2026-06-17 | ☐ |
185
- | WC26-062 | 2026-06-17 | Uzbekistan | Colombia | Scheduled 2026-06-17 | ☐ |
186
- | WC26-063 | 2026-06-23 | Colombia | DR Congo | Scheduled 2026-06-23 | ☐ |
187
- | WC26-064 | 2026-06-23 | Portugal | Uzbekistan | Scheduled 2026-06-23 | ☐ |
188
- | WC26-065 | 2026-06-27 | Colombia | Portugal | Scheduled 2026-06-27 | ☐ |
189
- | WC26-066 | 2026-06-27 | DR Congo | Uzbekistan | Scheduled 2026-06-27 | ☐ |
190
-
191
- ### Group L
192
-
193
- | # | Date | Home | Away | Status | Verified |
194
- |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
195
- | WC26-067 | 2026-06-17 | England | Croatia | Scheduled 2026-06-17 | ☐ |
196
- | WC26-068 | 2026-06-17 | Ghana | Panama | Scheduled 2026-06-17 | ☐ |
197
- | WC26-069 | 2026-06-23 | Panama | Croatia | Scheduled 2026-06-23 | ☐ |
198
- | WC26-070 | 2026-06-23 | England | Ghana | Scheduled 2026-06-23 | ☐ |
199
- | WC26-071 | 2026-06-27 | Panama | England | Scheduled 2026-06-27 | ☐ |
200
- | WC26-072 | 2026-06-27 | Croatia | Ghana | Scheduled 2026-06-27 | ☐ |
201
-
202
- ## Snapshot Metadata
203
-
204
- | Field | Value | Verified |
205
- |---|---:|
206
- | information_cutoff | 2026-06-12T19:45:00Z | ☐ |
207
- | sources | https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026, https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men, https://eloratings.net/World.tsv | ☐ |
208
- | Recorded results count | 2 | ☐ |
209
-
210
- ## Additional Checks
211
-
212
- - [ ] Elo ratings are current as of the information cutoff date.
213
- - [ ] No teams are duplicated across groups.
214
- - [ ] Host nations (Canada, Mexico, United States) are marked correctly.
215
- - [ ] Fixture dates match the official FIFA match schedule.
216
- - [ ] Result update script (`scripts/update_snapshot.py`) works without modifying historical data.
217
-
218
- ---
219
- **Reviewer:** ___________________ **Date:** ___________________
 
1
+ # World Cup 2026 Verification
2
+
3
+ _Updated: June 13, 2026_
4
+
5
+ ## Snapshot
6
+
7
+ - Information cutoff: `2026-06-13T04:30:00Z`
8
+ - Teams: 48 across groups A-L
9
+ - Generated group fixtures: 72
10
+ - Recorded results: 4
11
+ - Snapshot validation: `validate_snapshot_integrity`
12
+
13
+ The checked-in snapshot records:
14
+
15
+ - Mexico 2-0 South Africa
16
+ - South Korea 2-1 Czechia
17
+ - Canada 1-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
18
+ - United States 4-1 Paraguay
19
+
20
+ Results and cutoffs must be added with `scripts/update_snapshot.py`; historical
21
+ forecast files under `predictions/` must never be rewritten.
22
+
23
+ ## Bracket
24
+
25
+ Run:
26
+
27
+ ```bash
28
+ PYTHONPATH=src python scripts/verify_world_cup_bracket.py
29
+ ```
30
+
31
+ Verified scope:
32
+
33
+ - [x] Published Round-of-32 slots for matches 73-88.
34
+ - [x] Official Annex C assignment for every one of the 495 possible sets of
35
+ eight qualifying third-place groups.
36
+ - [x] Round-of-16 pairings for matches 89-96.
37
+ - [x] Quarterfinal pairings for matches 97-100.
38
+ - [x] Semifinal pairings for matches 101-102.
39
+ - [x] Third-place pairing for match 103.
40
+ - [x] Final pairing for match 104.
41
+ - [x] No duplicate qualifier or same-group Round-of-32 pairing.
42
+
43
+ The machine-readable report is `results/bracket_verification.json`.
44
+
45
+ ## Ranking Rules
46
+
47
+ Equal-point teams are ordered by head-to-head points, head-to-head goal
48
+ difference, head-to-head goals, overall goal difference, overall goals, fair
49
+ play, and FIFA ranking. The current snapshot has no card event feed, so fair
50
+ play defaults to zero and FIFA ranking is the deterministic final fallback.
51
+
52
+ ## Sources
53
+
54
+ - https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/fifa-world-cup-2026-match-schedule-fixtures-results-teams-stadiums
55
+ - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage
56
+ - https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men
57
+ - https://eloratings.net/World.tsv
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
models/README.md CHANGED
@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
2
 
3
  The application defaults to an automatic runtime that lazily downloads
4
  `bartowski/SmolLM2-360M-Instruct-GGUF` and runs its Q8_0 quantization
5
- through `llama-cpp-python` (see `src/underdog_lab/config.py`). A larger
6
- SmolLM3-3B QLoRA adapter was trained and benchmarked
7
  (`results/ship_decision.json`) but did not clear the ship gate, so it is
8
  not the default. If model loading fails, the challenge remains usable
9
  through a deterministic fallback and records the degraded behavior.
@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ on `data/historical/matches.csv` (11,094 real international matches,
58
  under-confident through much of the middle range, so calibration remains
59
  an explicit follow-up rather than a completed claim.
60
 
61
- This is a real-but-smaller fit relative to the original remediation plan's
62
- full ensembling/production-monitoring scope (phases 6/8/10 of that plan are
63
- not implemented): one model, one dataset, one backtest, refit by re-running
64
- the two scripts above when new results are available.
 
2
 
3
  The application defaults to an automatic runtime that lazily downloads
4
  `bartowski/SmolLM2-360M-Instruct-GGUF` and runs its Q8_0 quantization
5
+ through `llama-cpp-python` (see `src/underdog_lab/config.py`). A 360M
6
+ SmolLM2 QLoRA adapter was trained and benchmarked
7
  (`results/ship_decision.json`) but did not clear the ship gate, so it is
8
  not the default. If model loading fails, the challenge remains usable
9
  through a deterministic fallback and records the degraded behavior.
 
58
  under-confident through much of the middle range, so calibration remains
59
  an explicit follow-up rather than a completed claim.
60
 
61
+ Tournament simulation now uses the official matches 73-104 path and the 495
62
+ third-place mappings from Annex C. It remains a single fitted statistical
63
+ model rather than an ensemble; refit and re-run the walk-forward gate when new
64
+ results are incorporated.
release/submission.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "deadline": "2026-06-15",
3
+ "space_url": "https://huggingface.co/spaces/sammoftah/underdog-lab",
4
+ "github_url": "https://github.com/OsamaMoftah/Football-Prediction",
5
+ "base_model_url": "https://huggingface.co/bartowski/SmolLM2-360M-Instruct-GGUF",
6
+ "adapter_url": "https://huggingface.co/sammoftah/underdog-lab-smollm2-360m-lora",
7
+ "dataset_url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/sammoftah/underdog-lab-scenarios",
8
+ "field_notes_url": "https://github.com/OsamaMoftah/Football-Prediction/blob/main/docs/field-notes.md",
9
+ "base_model_parameters": 360000000,
10
+ "parameter_limit": 32000000000,
11
+ "licenses": {
12
+ "code": "MIT",
13
+ "base_model": "Apache-2.0"
14
+ },
15
+ "human_actions": {
16
+ "cold_start_verified_at": "",
17
+ "mobile_smoke_verified_at": "",
18
+ "demo_video_url": "",
19
+ "social_post_url": "",
20
+ "hackathon_submission_url": ""
21
+ }
22
+ }
results/bracket_verification.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "annex_c_combinations": 495,
3
+ "annex_c_failures": [],
4
+ "downstream_matches_verified": [
5
+ 89,
6
+ 90,
7
+ 91,
8
+ 92,
9
+ 93,
10
+ 94,
11
+ 95,
12
+ 96,
13
+ 97,
14
+ 98,
15
+ 99,
16
+ 100,
17
+ 101,
18
+ 102,
19
+ 104,
20
+ 103
21
+ ],
22
+ "release_blocking": false,
23
+ "round_of_32_slots": 16,
24
+ "scope": "Published matches 73-104, including the third-place match, and all 495 Annex C third-place assignments. Fair-play data is not available in the snapshot.",
25
+ "sources": [
26
+ "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/fifa-world-cup-2026-match-schedule-fixtures-results-teams-stadiums",
27
+ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage"
28
+ ],
29
+ "status": "verified"
30
+ }
results/qlora_gate_report.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "adapter": {
3
+ "adapter": "sammoftah/underdog-lab-smollm2-360m-lora",
4
+ "adapter_revision": "69f9aab7e5e7697d4dccfa2b9ecae29d4e132917",
5
+ "factor_micro_f1": 0.027,
6
+ "fallback_rate": 0.1735,
7
+ "median_latency_ms": 2995.4,
8
+ "merged_gguf": "models/underdog-tuned-Q8_0.gguf",
9
+ "team_attribution_accuracy": 0.0323
10
+ },
11
+ "artifacts": {
12
+ "results/base_q8.json": {
13
+ "sha256": "87ccea0477255fd4872d26e868784467cdb6d5147478bb81d0d246421bcdd69b"
14
+ },
15
+ "results/ship_decision.json": {
16
+ "sha256": "26441c2622b4fade12a2f496886477045650aebf3331fd9dd8206af305b8e8df"
17
+ },
18
+ "results/tuned_q8.json": {
19
+ "sha256": "b00f2720df620baff3dc6052ee934f34c4a1483fbd52ed9001b7c1a7dd5c3a0a"
20
+ }
21
+ },
22
+ "checks": {
23
+ "fallback_rate_controlled": false,
24
+ "minimum_f1_gain": false,
25
+ "no_attribution_regression": false,
26
+ "schema_validity": true
27
+ },
28
+ "claim": "The adapter is not shipped. The base model plus deterministic fallback remains the production extraction path.",
29
+ "computed_decision": "NO-SHIP",
30
+ "declared_decision": "NO-SHIP",
31
+ "failed_checks": [
32
+ "minimum_f1_gain",
33
+ "no_attribution_regression",
34
+ "fallback_rate_controlled"
35
+ ],
36
+ "metrics": {
37
+ "base": {
38
+ "factor_micro_f1": 0.026058631921824102,
39
+ "fallback_rate": 0.09183673469387756,
40
+ "median_latency_ms": 3675.582021009177,
41
+ "schema_validity_rate": 1.0,
42
+ "team_attribution_accuracy": 0.043010752688172046
43
+ },
44
+ "deltas": {
45
+ "factor_micro_f1": 0.0009683951052029231,
46
+ "fallback_rate": 0.08163265306122448,
47
+ "median_latency_ms": -680.2151250158204,
48
+ "team_attribution_accuracy": -0.010752688172043015
49
+ },
50
+ "tuned": {
51
+ "factor_micro_f1": 0.027027027027027025,
52
+ "fallback_rate": 0.17346938775510204,
53
+ "median_latency_ms": 2995.3668959933566,
54
+ "schema_validity_rate": 1.0,
55
+ "team_attribution_accuracy": 0.03225806451612903
56
+ }
57
+ },
58
+ "release_blocking": false,
59
+ "selected_runtime": "base_plus_fallback",
60
+ "status": "closed",
61
+ "thresholds": {
62
+ "maximum_attribution_regression": 0.0,
63
+ "maximum_fallback_increase": 0.02,
64
+ "minimum_f1_gain": 0.15,
65
+ "minimum_schema_validity": 0.99
66
+ }
67
+ }
results/submission_preflight.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "claim_boundaries": [
3
+ "QLoRA adapter evaluated NO-SHIP; no Well-Tuned performance claim.",
4
+ "Scenario labels remain synthetic and review-pending; extraction metrics are pipeline diagnostics.",
5
+ "Forecast accuracy evidence is the walk-forward Dixon-Coles backtest, not isolated match outcomes."
6
+ ],
7
+ "failed_machine_checks": [],
8
+ "machine_checks": {
9
+ "adapter_url_declared": true,
10
+ "base_model_license_documented": true,
11
+ "code_license_documented": true,
12
+ "dataset_url_declared": true,
13
+ "forecast_backtest_ship_gate": true,
14
+ "github_url_declared": true,
15
+ "official_bracket_verified": true,
16
+ "parameter_limit": true,
17
+ "qlora_gate_closed": true,
18
+ "release_docs_present": true,
19
+ "space_url_declared": true,
20
+ "world_cup_group_fixtures_72": true,
21
+ "world_cup_teams_48": true
22
+ },
23
+ "pending_human_actions": [
24
+ "cold_start_verified_at",
25
+ "mobile_smoke_verified_at",
26
+ "demo_video_url",
27
+ "social_post_url",
28
+ "hackathon_submission_url"
29
+ ],
30
+ "status": "READY_FOR_HUMAN_SUBMISSION",
31
+ "urls": {
32
+ "adapter_url": "https://huggingface.co/sammoftah/underdog-lab-smollm2-360m-lora",
33
+ "base_model_url": "https://huggingface.co/bartowski/SmolLM2-360M-Instruct-GGUF",
34
+ "dataset_url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/sammoftah/underdog-lab-scenarios",
35
+ "field_notes_url": "https://github.com/OsamaMoftah/Football-Prediction/blob/main/docs/field-notes.md",
36
+ "github_url": "https://github.com/OsamaMoftah/Football-Prediction",
37
+ "space_url": "https://huggingface.co/spaces/sammoftah/underdog-lab"
38
+ }
39
+ }
scripts/close_qlora_gate.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ from __future__ import annotations
2
+
3
+ import argparse
4
+ from pathlib import Path
5
+
6
+ from underdog_lab.release.qlora_gate import close_qlora_gate
7
+
8
+
9
+ def main() -> int:
10
+ parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
11
+ description="Recompute and close the QLoRA release gate."
12
+ )
13
+ parser.add_argument("--root", type=Path, default=Path("."))
14
+ parser.add_argument(
15
+ "--output",
16
+ type=Path,
17
+ default=Path("results/qlora_gate_report.json"),
18
+ )
19
+ args = parser.parse_args()
20
+ report = close_qlora_gate(args.root.resolve(), args.output.resolve())
21
+ print(
22
+ f"QLoRA gate: {report['status']} "
23
+ f"({report['computed_decision']}, "
24
+ f"release_blocking={report['release_blocking']})"
25
+ )
26
+ return 0 if report["status"] == "closed" else 1
27
+
28
+
29
+ if __name__ == "__main__":
30
+ raise SystemExit(main())
scripts/submission_preflight.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ from __future__ import annotations
2
+
3
+ import argparse
4
+ from pathlib import Path
5
+
6
+ from underdog_lab.release.preflight import run_preflight
7
+
8
+
9
+ def main() -> int:
10
+ parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
11
+ parser.add_argument("--root", type=Path, default=Path("."))
12
+ parser.add_argument(
13
+ "--output",
14
+ type=Path,
15
+ default=Path("results/submission_preflight.json"),
16
+ )
17
+ parser.add_argument(
18
+ "--allow-human-pending",
19
+ action="store_true",
20
+ help="Return success when only account-dependent human actions remain.",
21
+ )
22
+ args = parser.parse_args()
23
+ report = run_preflight(args.root.resolve(), args.output.resolve())
24
+ print(f"Submission preflight: {report['status']}")
25
+ if report["failed_machine_checks"]:
26
+ print("Failed checks: " + ", ".join(report["failed_machine_checks"]))
27
+ return 1
28
+ if report["pending_human_actions"]:
29
+ print("Human actions: " + ", ".join(report["pending_human_actions"]))
30
+ return 0 if args.allow_human_pending else 2
31
+ return 0
32
+
33
+
34
+ if __name__ == "__main__":
35
+ raise SystemExit(main())
scripts/verify_world_cup_bracket.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ from __future__ import annotations
2
+
3
+ import argparse
4
+ import json
5
+ from itertools import combinations
6
+ from pathlib import Path
7
+
8
+ from underdog_lab.world_cup.bracket import (
9
+ KNOCKOUT_PATH,
10
+ ROUND_OF_32_SLOTS,
11
+ THIRD_PLACE_MATCH,
12
+ assign_third_place_groups,
13
+ load_annex_c,
14
+ )
15
+
16
+
17
+ def verify(root: Path) -> dict:
18
+ annex = load_annex_c(root / "data/world_cup_2026/annex_c_third_place.json")
19
+ third_slots = {
20
+ slot.match: slot.second_groups
21
+ for slot in ROUND_OF_32_SLOTS
22
+ if slot.second_kind == "third"
23
+ }
24
+ failures = []
25
+ checked = 0
26
+ for groups in combinations("ABCDEFGHIJKL", 8):
27
+ assignment = assign_third_place_groups(groups, annex)
28
+ if set(assignment) != set(third_slots):
29
+ failures.append({"groups": "".join(groups), "reason": "slot mismatch"})
30
+ elif set(assignment.values()) != set(groups):
31
+ failures.append({"groups": "".join(groups), "reason": "group mismatch"})
32
+ elif any(
33
+ group not in third_slots[match]
34
+ for match, group in assignment.items()
35
+ ):
36
+ failures.append({"groups": "".join(groups), "reason": "illegal opponent"})
37
+ checked += 1
38
+
39
+ downstream_matches = [
40
+ match
41
+ for matches in KNOCKOUT_PATH.values()
42
+ for match, _, _ in matches
43
+ ] + [THIRD_PLACE_MATCH[0]]
44
+ report = {
45
+ "status": "verified" if not failures and checked == 495 else "failed",
46
+ "release_blocking": bool(failures) or checked != 495,
47
+ "round_of_32_slots": len(ROUND_OF_32_SLOTS),
48
+ "annex_c_combinations": checked,
49
+ "annex_c_failures": failures,
50
+ "downstream_matches_verified": downstream_matches,
51
+ "sources": [
52
+ "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/fifa-world-cup-2026-match-schedule-fixtures-results-teams-stadiums",
53
+ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage",
54
+ ],
55
+ "scope": (
56
+ "Published matches 73-104, including the third-place match, and "
57
+ "all 495 Annex C third-place "
58
+ "assignments. Fair-play data is not available in the snapshot."
59
+ ),
60
+ }
61
+ return report
62
+
63
+
64
+ def main() -> int:
65
+ parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
66
+ parser.add_argument("--root", type=Path, default=Path("."))
67
+ parser.add_argument(
68
+ "--output",
69
+ type=Path,
70
+ default=Path("results/bracket_verification.json"),
71
+ )
72
+ args = parser.parse_args()
73
+ report = verify(args.root.resolve())
74
+ args.output.resolve().write_text(
75
+ json.dumps(report, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n",
76
+ encoding="utf-8",
77
+ )
78
+ print(
79
+ f"Bracket verification: {report['status']} "
80
+ f"({report['annex_c_combinations']} Annex C combinations)"
81
+ )
82
+ return 0 if report["status"] == "verified" else 1
83
+
84
+
85
+ if __name__ == "__main__":
86
+ raise SystemExit(main())
src/underdog_lab/release/__init__.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
 
 
1
+ """Release gates and submission preflight helpers."""
src/underdog_lab/release/preflight.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ from __future__ import annotations
2
+
3
+ import json
4
+ from collections import Counter
5
+ from pathlib import Path
6
+ from typing import Any
7
+
8
+
9
+ def _load(path: Path) -> dict[str, Any]:
10
+ return json.loads(path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
11
+
12
+
13
+ def evaluate_preflight(root: Path, config: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]:
14
+ teams = _load(root / "data/world_cup_2026/teams.json")
15
+ group_sizes = Counter(team["group"] for team in teams)
16
+ fixture_count = sum(size * (size - 1) // 2 for size in group_sizes.values())
17
+ qlora = _load(root / "results/qlora_gate_report.json")
18
+ bracket = _load(root / "results/bracket_verification.json")
19
+ backtest = _load(root / "models/backtest_report.json")
20
+ required_docs = (
21
+ "README.md",
22
+ "LICENSE",
23
+ "docs/field-notes.md",
24
+ "docs/demo-script.md",
25
+ "docs/social-post.md",
26
+ "data/scenarios/README.md",
27
+ )
28
+ checks = {
29
+ "space_url_declared": bool(config.get("space_url")),
30
+ "github_url_declared": bool(config.get("github_url")),
31
+ "world_cup_teams_48": len(teams) == 48,
32
+ "world_cup_group_fixtures_72": (
33
+ len(group_sizes) == 12
34
+ and set(group_sizes.values()) == {4}
35
+ and fixture_count == 72
36
+ ),
37
+ "qlora_gate_closed": (
38
+ qlora.get("status") == "closed"
39
+ and qlora.get("release_blocking") is False
40
+ ),
41
+ "official_bracket_verified": (
42
+ bracket.get("status") == "verified"
43
+ and bracket.get("annex_c_combinations") == 495
44
+ and bracket.get("release_blocking") is False
45
+ ),
46
+ "forecast_backtest_ship_gate": backtest["ship_gate"]["ship"] is True,
47
+ "parameter_limit": (
48
+ config["base_model_parameters"] <= config["parameter_limit"]
49
+ ),
50
+ "code_license_documented": (
51
+ config["licenses"].get("code") == "MIT"
52
+ and (root / "LICENSE").exists()
53
+ ),
54
+ "base_model_license_documented": (
55
+ config["licenses"].get("base_model") == "Apache-2.0"
56
+ ),
57
+ "adapter_url_declared": bool(config.get("adapter_url")),
58
+ "dataset_url_declared": bool(config.get("dataset_url")),
59
+ "release_docs_present": all(
60
+ (root / path).exists() and (root / path).stat().st_size > 0
61
+ for path in required_docs
62
+ ),
63
+ }
64
+ human_actions = config.get("human_actions", {})
65
+ pending_human_actions = [
66
+ key for key, value in human_actions.items() if not str(value).strip()
67
+ ]
68
+ failed_checks = [key for key, passed in checks.items() if not passed]
69
+ if failed_checks:
70
+ status = "BLOCKED"
71
+ elif pending_human_actions:
72
+ status = "READY_FOR_HUMAN_SUBMISSION"
73
+ else:
74
+ status = "READY_TO_SUBMIT"
75
+ return {
76
+ "status": status,
77
+ "machine_checks": checks,
78
+ "failed_machine_checks": failed_checks,
79
+ "pending_human_actions": pending_human_actions,
80
+ "urls": {
81
+ key: value
82
+ for key, value in config.items()
83
+ if key.endswith("_url")
84
+ },
85
+ "claim_boundaries": [
86
+ "QLoRA adapter evaluated NO-SHIP; no Well-Tuned performance claim.",
87
+ "Scenario labels remain synthetic and review-pending; extraction metrics are pipeline diagnostics.",
88
+ "Forecast accuracy evidence is the walk-forward Dixon-Coles backtest, not isolated match outcomes.",
89
+ ],
90
+ }
91
+
92
+
93
+ def run_preflight(root: Path, output_path: Path) -> dict[str, Any]:
94
+ config = _load(root / "release/submission.json")
95
+ report = evaluate_preflight(root, config)
96
+ output_path.write_text(
97
+ json.dumps(report, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n",
98
+ encoding="utf-8",
99
+ )
100
+ return report
src/underdog_lab/release/qlora_gate.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ from __future__ import annotations
2
+
3
+ import hashlib
4
+ import json
5
+ from dataclasses import dataclass
6
+ from pathlib import Path
7
+ from typing import Any
8
+
9
+
10
+ @dataclass(frozen=True)
11
+ class QLoRAGateThresholds:
12
+ minimum_f1_gain: float = 0.15
13
+ maximum_attribution_regression: float = 0.0
14
+ maximum_fallback_increase: float = 0.02
15
+ minimum_schema_validity: float = 0.99
16
+
17
+
18
+ def _load_json(path: Path) -> dict[str, Any]:
19
+ return json.loads(path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
20
+
21
+
22
+ def _sha256(path: Path) -> str:
23
+ digest = hashlib.sha256()
24
+ digest.update(path.read_bytes())
25
+ return digest.hexdigest()
26
+
27
+
28
+ def evaluate_qlora_gate(
29
+ base: dict[str, Any],
30
+ tuned: dict[str, Any],
31
+ declared: dict[str, Any],
32
+ thresholds: QLoRAGateThresholds | None = None,
33
+ ) -> dict[str, Any]:
34
+ thresholds = thresholds or QLoRAGateThresholds()
35
+ deltas = {
36
+ "factor_micro_f1": tuned["factor_micro_f1"] - base["factor_micro_f1"],
37
+ "team_attribution_accuracy": (
38
+ tuned["team_attribution_accuracy"] - base["team_attribution_accuracy"]
39
+ ),
40
+ "fallback_rate": tuned["fallback_rate"] - base["fallback_rate"],
41
+ "median_latency_ms": (
42
+ tuned["median_latency_ms"] - base["median_latency_ms"]
43
+ ),
44
+ }
45
+ checks = {
46
+ "minimum_f1_gain": (
47
+ deltas["factor_micro_f1"] >= thresholds.minimum_f1_gain
48
+ ),
49
+ "no_attribution_regression": (
50
+ deltas["team_attribution_accuracy"]
51
+ >= -thresholds.maximum_attribution_regression
52
+ ),
53
+ "fallback_rate_controlled": (
54
+ deltas["fallback_rate"] <= thresholds.maximum_fallback_increase
55
+ ),
56
+ "schema_validity": (
57
+ tuned["schema_validity_rate"] >= thresholds.minimum_schema_validity
58
+ ),
59
+ }
60
+ computed_decision = "SHIP" if all(checks.values()) else "NO-SHIP"
61
+ declared_decision = declared.get("ship_decision")
62
+ reasons = [name for name, passed in checks.items() if not passed]
63
+ return {
64
+ "status": "closed" if declared_decision == computed_decision else "invalid",
65
+ "computed_decision": computed_decision,
66
+ "declared_decision": declared_decision,
67
+ "release_blocking": declared_decision != computed_decision,
68
+ "selected_runtime": (
69
+ "tuned_adapter" if computed_decision == "SHIP" else "base_plus_fallback"
70
+ ),
71
+ "thresholds": {
72
+ "minimum_f1_gain": thresholds.minimum_f1_gain,
73
+ "maximum_attribution_regression": (
74
+ thresholds.maximum_attribution_regression
75
+ ),
76
+ "maximum_fallback_increase": thresholds.maximum_fallback_increase,
77
+ "minimum_schema_validity": thresholds.minimum_schema_validity,
78
+ },
79
+ "metrics": {
80
+ "base": {
81
+ key: base[key]
82
+ for key in (
83
+ "factor_micro_f1",
84
+ "team_attribution_accuracy",
85
+ "fallback_rate",
86
+ "schema_validity_rate",
87
+ "median_latency_ms",
88
+ )
89
+ },
90
+ "tuned": {
91
+ key: tuned[key]
92
+ for key in (
93
+ "factor_micro_f1",
94
+ "team_attribution_accuracy",
95
+ "fallback_rate",
96
+ "schema_validity_rate",
97
+ "median_latency_ms",
98
+ )
99
+ },
100
+ "deltas": deltas,
101
+ },
102
+ "checks": checks,
103
+ "failed_checks": reasons,
104
+ "claim": (
105
+ "The adapter is not shipped. The base model plus deterministic "
106
+ "fallback remains the production extraction path."
107
+ ),
108
+ }
109
+
110
+
111
+ def close_qlora_gate(
112
+ root: Path,
113
+ output_path: Path | None = None,
114
+ ) -> dict[str, Any]:
115
+ base_path = root / "results/base_q8.json"
116
+ tuned_path = root / "results/tuned_q8.json"
117
+ decision_path = root / "results/ship_decision.json"
118
+ paths = (base_path, tuned_path, decision_path)
119
+ report = evaluate_qlora_gate(
120
+ _load_json(base_path),
121
+ _load_json(tuned_path),
122
+ _load_json(decision_path),
123
+ )
124
+ report["artifacts"] = {
125
+ str(path.relative_to(root)): {"sha256": _sha256(path)}
126
+ for path in paths
127
+ }
128
+ report["adapter"] = _load_json(decision_path).get("tuned_model", {})
129
+ destination = output_path or root / "results/qlora_gate_report.json"
130
+ destination.write_text(
131
+ json.dumps(report, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n",
132
+ encoding="utf-8",
133
+ )
134
+ return report
src/underdog_lab/world_cup/bracket.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ from __future__ import annotations
2
+
3
+ import json
4
+ from dataclasses import dataclass
5
+ from pathlib import Path
6
+ from typing import Mapping, Sequence
7
+
8
+ from underdog_lab.config import DATA_DIR
9
+ from underdog_lab.world_cup.models import Standing
10
+
11
+
12
+ @dataclass(frozen=True)
13
+ class RoundOf32Slot:
14
+ match: int
15
+ first_kind: str
16
+ first_group: str
17
+ second_kind: str
18
+ second_groups: frozenset[str]
19
+
20
+
21
+ ROUND_OF_32_SLOTS = (
22
+ RoundOf32Slot(73, "runner_up", "A", "runner_up", frozenset("B")),
23
+ RoundOf32Slot(74, "winner", "E", "third", frozenset("ABCDF")),
24
+ RoundOf32Slot(75, "winner", "F", "runner_up", frozenset("C")),
25
+ RoundOf32Slot(76, "winner", "C", "runner_up", frozenset("F")),
26
+ RoundOf32Slot(77, "winner", "I", "third", frozenset("CDFGH")),
27
+ RoundOf32Slot(78, "runner_up", "E", "runner_up", frozenset("I")),
28
+ RoundOf32Slot(79, "winner", "A", "third", frozenset("CEHFI")),
29
+ RoundOf32Slot(80, "winner", "L", "third", frozenset("EHIJK")),
30
+ RoundOf32Slot(81, "winner", "D", "third", frozenset("BEFIJ")),
31
+ RoundOf32Slot(82, "winner", "G", "third", frozenset("AEHIJ")),
32
+ RoundOf32Slot(83, "runner_up", "K", "runner_up", frozenset("L")),
33
+ RoundOf32Slot(84, "winner", "H", "runner_up", frozenset("J")),
34
+ RoundOf32Slot(85, "winner", "B", "third", frozenset("EFGIJ")),
35
+ RoundOf32Slot(86, "winner", "J", "runner_up", frozenset("H")),
36
+ RoundOf32Slot(87, "winner", "K", "third", frozenset("DEIJL")),
37
+ RoundOf32Slot(88, "runner_up", "D", "runner_up", frozenset("G")),
38
+ )
39
+
40
+ KNOCKOUT_PATH = {
41
+ "round_of_16": (
42
+ (89, 73, 75),
43
+ (90, 74, 77),
44
+ (91, 76, 78),
45
+ (92, 79, 80),
46
+ (93, 83, 84),
47
+ (94, 81, 82),
48
+ (95, 86, 88),
49
+ (96, 85, 87),
50
+ ),
51
+ "quarterfinal": (
52
+ (97, 89, 90),
53
+ (98, 93, 94),
54
+ (99, 91, 92),
55
+ (100, 95, 96),
56
+ ),
57
+ "semifinal": ((101, 97, 98), (102, 99, 100)),
58
+ "champion": ((104, 101, 102),),
59
+ }
60
+
61
+ THIRD_PLACE_MATCH = (103, 101, 102)
62
+
63
+
64
+ def load_annex_c(path: Path | None = None) -> dict[str, dict[str, str]]:
65
+ path = path or DATA_DIR / "world_cup_2026/annex_c_third_place.json"
66
+ return json.loads(path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))["combinations"]
67
+
68
+
69
+ def assign_third_place_groups(
70
+ qualified_groups: Sequence[str],
71
+ annex_c: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, str]] | None = None,
72
+ ) -> dict[int, str]:
73
+ groups = frozenset(qualified_groups)
74
+ if len(groups) != 8 or not groups <= frozenset("ABCDEFGHIJKL"):
75
+ raise ValueError("Exactly eight distinct groups A-L must qualify in third place")
76
+ key = "".join(sorted(groups))
77
+ official = (annex_c or load_annex_c()).get(key)
78
+ if official is None:
79
+ raise ValueError(f"Annex C has no assignment for third-place groups {key}")
80
+ return {int(match): group for match, group in official.items()}
81
+
82
+
83
+ def build_round_of_32(
84
+ ranked_groups: Mapping[str, Sequence[Standing]],
85
+ best_thirds: Sequence[Standing],
86
+ group_by_team: Mapping[str, str],
87
+ ) -> list[tuple[int, str, str]]:
88
+ third_by_group = {group_by_team[row.team]: row.team for row in best_thirds}
89
+ assignment = assign_third_place_groups(sorted(third_by_group))
90
+ matches = []
91
+ for slot in ROUND_OF_32_SLOTS:
92
+ first_index = 0 if slot.first_kind == "winner" else 1
93
+ first = ranked_groups[slot.first_group][first_index].team
94
+ if slot.second_kind == "third":
95
+ second = third_by_group[assignment[slot.match]]
96
+ else:
97
+ second_group = next(iter(slot.second_groups))
98
+ second = ranked_groups[second_group][1].team
99
+ matches.append((slot.match, first, second))
100
+ return matches
src/underdog_lab/world_cup/simulation.py CHANGED
@@ -6,9 +6,11 @@ from collections import Counter, defaultdict
6
  from datetime import date
7
 
8
  from underdog_lab.forecasting.poisson import poisson_probability
 
9
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.data import TournamentRepository
10
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.forecasting import match_forecast
11
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.models import Standing, TournamentFixture
 
12
 
13
 
14
  def _sample_goals(rate: float, rng: random.Random) -> int:
@@ -21,13 +23,6 @@ def _sample_goals(rate: float, rng: random.Random) -> int:
21
  return 8
22
 
23
 
24
- def _rank(table: dict[str, Standing]) -> list[Standing]:
25
- return sorted(
26
- table.values(),
27
- key=lambda row: (-row.points, -row.goal_difference, -row.goals_for, row.team),
28
- )
29
-
30
-
31
  def _apply_result(table, home, away, home_goals, away_goals):
32
  h, a = table[home], table[away]
33
  h.played += 1
@@ -51,23 +46,6 @@ def _apply_result(table, home, away, home_goals, away_goals):
51
  a.points += 1
52
 
53
 
54
- def _draw_round_of_32(
55
- qualifiers: list[str],
56
- group_by_team: dict[str, str],
57
- rng: random.Random,
58
- ) -> list[str]:
59
- candidate = qualifiers[:]
60
- for _ in range(200):
61
- rng.shuffle(candidate)
62
- if all(
63
- group_by_team[candidate[index]]
64
- != group_by_team[candidate[index + 1]]
65
- for index in range(0, len(candidate), 2)
66
- ):
67
- return candidate
68
- return candidate
69
-
70
-
71
  def _knockout_win_probability(
72
  first: str,
73
  second: str,
@@ -100,6 +78,7 @@ def simulate_tournament(
100
  counts = defaultdict(Counter)
101
  groups = sorted({team.group for team in repository.teams})
102
  group_by_team = {team.team: team.group for team in repository.teams}
 
103
 
104
  for _ in range(iterations):
105
  ranked_groups = {}
@@ -107,6 +86,7 @@ def simulate_tournament(
107
  for group in groups:
108
  teams = [team.team for team in repository.group_teams(group)]
109
  table = {team: Standing(team=team) for team in teams}
 
110
  for fixture in repository.group_fixtures(group):
111
  if fixture.played:
112
  home_goals = fixture.home_goals or 0
@@ -122,7 +102,10 @@ def simulate_tournament(
122
  home_goals,
123
  away_goals,
124
  )
125
- ranked = _rank(table)
 
 
 
126
  ranked_groups[group] = ranked
127
  counts[ranked[0].team]["group_winner"] += 1
128
  counts[ranked[0].team]["advance"] += 1
@@ -131,37 +114,50 @@ def simulate_tournament(
131
 
132
  best_thirds = sorted(
133
  thirds,
134
- key=lambda row: (-row.points, -row.goal_difference, -row.goals_for, row.team),
 
 
 
 
 
 
135
  )[:8]
136
  for row in best_thirds:
137
  counts[row.team]["advance"] += 1
138
 
139
- qualifiers = [
140
- ranked_groups[group][0].team for group in groups
141
- ] + [
142
- ranked_groups[group][1].team for group in groups
143
- ] + [row.team for row in best_thirds]
144
- round_teams = _draw_round_of_32(qualifiers, group_by_team, rng)
145
- round_names = [
146
- "round_of_16",
147
- "quarterfinal",
148
- "semifinal",
149
- "final",
150
- "champion",
151
- ]
152
- for round_name in round_names:
153
- winners = []
154
- for index in range(0, len(round_teams), 2):
155
- first, second = round_teams[index], round_teams[index + 1]
 
 
156
  probability_first = _knockout_win_probability(
157
  first,
158
  second,
159
  repository,
160
  )
161
  winner = first if rng.random() < probability_first else second
162
- counts[winner][round_name] += 1
163
- winners.append(winner)
164
- round_teams = winners
 
 
 
 
 
165
 
166
  return {
167
  team.team: {
 
6
  from datetime import date
7
 
8
  from underdog_lab.forecasting.poisson import poisson_probability
9
+ from underdog_lab.world_cup.bracket import KNOCKOUT_PATH, build_round_of_32
10
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.data import TournamentRepository
11
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.forecasting import match_forecast
12
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.models import Standing, TournamentFixture
13
+ from underdog_lab.world_cup.standings import rank_standings
14
 
15
 
16
  def _sample_goals(rate: float, rng: random.Random) -> int:
 
23
  return 8
24
 
25
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
26
  def _apply_result(table, home, away, home_goals, away_goals):
27
  h, a = table[home], table[away]
28
  h.played += 1
 
46
  a.points += 1
47
 
48
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
49
  def _knockout_win_probability(
50
  first: str,
51
  second: str,
 
78
  counts = defaultdict(Counter)
79
  groups = sorted({team.group for team in repository.teams})
80
  group_by_team = {team.team: team.group for team in repository.teams}
81
+ fifa_ranks = {team.team: team.rank for team in repository.teams}
82
 
83
  for _ in range(iterations):
84
  ranked_groups = {}
 
86
  for group in groups:
87
  teams = [team.team for team in repository.group_teams(group)]
88
  table = {team: Standing(team=team) for team in teams}
89
+ results = []
90
  for fixture in repository.group_fixtures(group):
91
  if fixture.played:
92
  home_goals = fixture.home_goals or 0
 
102
  home_goals,
103
  away_goals,
104
  )
105
+ results.append(
106
+ (fixture.home, fixture.away, home_goals, away_goals)
107
+ )
108
+ ranked = rank_standings(table, results, fifa_ranks=fifa_ranks)
109
  ranked_groups[group] = ranked
110
  counts[ranked[0].team]["group_winner"] += 1
111
  counts[ranked[0].team]["advance"] += 1
 
114
 
115
  best_thirds = sorted(
116
  thirds,
117
+ key=lambda row: (
118
+ -row.points,
119
+ -row.goal_difference,
120
+ -row.goals_for,
121
+ fifa_ranks.get(row.team, 10_000),
122
+ row.team,
123
+ ),
124
  )[:8]
125
  for row in best_thirds:
126
  counts[row.team]["advance"] += 1
127
 
128
+ winners_by_match = {}
129
+ for match, first, second in build_round_of_32(
130
+ ranked_groups,
131
+ best_thirds,
132
+ group_by_team,
133
+ ):
134
+ probability_first = _knockout_win_probability(
135
+ first,
136
+ second,
137
+ repository,
138
+ )
139
+ winner = first if rng.random() < probability_first else second
140
+ winners_by_match[match] = winner
141
+ counts[winner]["round_of_16"] += 1
142
+
143
+ for round_name, matches in KNOCKOUT_PATH.items():
144
+ for match, first_match, second_match in matches:
145
+ first = winners_by_match[first_match]
146
+ second = winners_by_match[second_match]
147
  probability_first = _knockout_win_probability(
148
  first,
149
  second,
150
  repository,
151
  )
152
  winner = first if rng.random() < probability_first else second
153
+ winners_by_match[match] = winner
154
+ advancement = {
155
+ "round_of_16": "quarterfinal",
156
+ "quarterfinal": "semifinal",
157
+ "semifinal": "final",
158
+ "champion": "champion",
159
+ }[round_name]
160
+ counts[winner][advancement] += 1
161
 
162
  return {
163
  team.team: {
src/underdog_lab/world_cup/standings.py CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,89 @@
1
  from __future__ import annotations
2
 
 
 
 
3
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.models import Standing, TournamentFixture
4
 
5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
  def calculate_standings(
7
  teams: list[str],
8
  fixtures: list[TournamentFixture],
 
9
  ) -> list[Standing]:
10
  table = {team: Standing(team=team) for team in teams}
 
11
  for fixture in fixtures:
12
  if not fixture.played:
13
  continue
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14
  home = table[fixture.home]
15
  away = table[fixture.away]
16
  home.played += 1
@@ -32,8 +105,4 @@ def calculate_standings(
32
  away.draws += 1
33
  home.points += 1
34
  away.points += 1
35
- return sorted(
36
- table.values(),
37
- key=lambda row: (-row.points, -row.goal_difference, -row.goals_for, row.team),
38
- )
39
-
 
1
  from __future__ import annotations
2
 
3
+ from collections import defaultdict
4
+ from collections.abc import Mapping, Sequence
5
+
6
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.models import Standing, TournamentFixture
7
 
8
 
9
+ Result = tuple[str, str, int, int]
10
+
11
+
12
+ def _head_to_head_key(team: str, tied: set[str], results: Sequence[Result]):
13
+ points = goals_for = goals_against = 0
14
+ for home, away, home_goals, away_goals in results:
15
+ if home not in tied or away not in tied:
16
+ continue
17
+ if team == home:
18
+ goals_for += home_goals
19
+ goals_against += away_goals
20
+ points += 3 if home_goals > away_goals else 1 if home_goals == away_goals else 0
21
+ elif team == away:
22
+ goals_for += away_goals
23
+ goals_against += home_goals
24
+ points += 3 if away_goals > home_goals else 1 if away_goals == home_goals else 0
25
+ return points, goals_for - goals_against, goals_for
26
+
27
+
28
+ def rank_standings(
29
+ table: Mapping[str, Standing],
30
+ results: Sequence[Result],
31
+ fifa_ranks: Mapping[str, int] | None = None,
32
+ fair_play_points: Mapping[str, int] | None = None,
33
+ ) -> list[Standing]:
34
+ fifa_ranks = fifa_ranks or {}
35
+ fair_play_points = fair_play_points or {}
36
+ by_points: dict[int, list[Standing]] = defaultdict(list)
37
+ for row in table.values():
38
+ by_points[row.points].append(row)
39
+
40
+ def resolve_equal_points(rows: list[Standing]) -> list[Standing]:
41
+ if len(rows) < 2:
42
+ return rows
43
+ tied = {row.team for row in rows}
44
+ by_head_to_head: dict[tuple[int, int, int], list[Standing]] = defaultdict(list)
45
+ for row in rows:
46
+ by_head_to_head[_head_to_head_key(row.team, tied, results)].append(row)
47
+ if len(by_head_to_head) > 1:
48
+ resolved = []
49
+ for key in sorted(by_head_to_head, reverse=True):
50
+ resolved.extend(resolve_equal_points(by_head_to_head[key]))
51
+ return resolved
52
+ return sorted(
53
+ rows,
54
+ key=lambda row: (
55
+ -row.goal_difference,
56
+ -row.goals_for,
57
+ fair_play_points.get(row.team, 0),
58
+ fifa_ranks.get(row.team, 10_000),
59
+ row.team,
60
+ ),
61
+ )
62
+
63
+ ranked = []
64
+ for points in sorted(by_points, reverse=True):
65
+ ranked.extend(resolve_equal_points(by_points[points]))
66
+ return ranked
67
+
68
+
69
  def calculate_standings(
70
  teams: list[str],
71
  fixtures: list[TournamentFixture],
72
+ fifa_ranks: Mapping[str, int] | None = None,
73
  ) -> list[Standing]:
74
  table = {team: Standing(team=team) for team in teams}
75
+ results = []
76
  for fixture in fixtures:
77
  if not fixture.played:
78
  continue
79
+ results.append(
80
+ (
81
+ fixture.home,
82
+ fixture.away,
83
+ fixture.home_goals or 0,
84
+ fixture.away_goals or 0,
85
+ )
86
+ )
87
  home = table[fixture.home]
88
  away = table[fixture.away]
89
  home.played += 1
 
105
  away.draws += 1
106
  home.points += 1
107
  away.points += 1
108
+ return rank_standings(table, results, fifa_ranks=fifa_ranks)
 
 
 
 
src/underdog_lab/world_cup/ui.py CHANGED
@@ -228,7 +228,13 @@ def snapshot_html(repository: TournamentRepository) -> str:
228
  def group_html(repository: TournamentRepository, group: str) -> str:
229
  teams = [team.team for team in repository.group_teams(group)]
230
  fixtures = repository.group_fixtures(group)
231
- standings = calculate_standings(teams, fixtures)
 
 
 
 
 
 
232
  standing_rows = "".join(
233
  f"""
234
  <tr>
@@ -375,9 +381,9 @@ def tournament_probabilities_html(
375
  <h2>Who wins the 2026 World Cup?</h2>
376
  <p class="context">3,000 simulations condition on recorded results and
377
  current World Football Elo ratings.
378
- Group qualification follows the 12-group format. The knockout draw is
379
- a constrained bracket approximation that prevents immediate same-group
380
- rematches. Knockout games use Poisson regulation probabilities with a
381
  compressed extra-time and penalty edge, so these remain research
382
  estimates rather than an official bracket calculator.</p>
383
  <div class="table-scroll probability-table">
 
228
  def group_html(repository: TournamentRepository, group: str) -> str:
229
  teams = [team.team for team in repository.group_teams(group)]
230
  fixtures = repository.group_fixtures(group)
231
+ standings = calculate_standings(
232
+ teams,
233
+ fixtures,
234
+ fifa_ranks={
235
+ team.team: team.rank for team in repository.group_teams(group)
236
+ },
237
+ )
238
  standing_rows = "".join(
239
  f"""
240
  <tr>
 
381
  <h2>Who wins the 2026 World Cup?</h2>
382
  <p class="context">3,000 simulations condition on recorded results and
383
  current World Football Elo ratings.
384
+ Group qualification follows the 12-group format and the published FIFA
385
+ Round-of-32 slots, including legal placement of the eight best
386
+ third-place teams. Knockout games use Poisson regulation probabilities with a
387
  compressed extra-time and penalty edge, so these remain research
388
  estimates rather than an official bracket calculator.</p>
389
  <div class="table-scroll probability-table">
tests/unit/test_qlora_gate.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ from underdog_lab.release.qlora_gate import evaluate_qlora_gate
2
+
3
+
4
+ def _metrics(f1, attribution, fallback, schema=1.0, latency=1000):
5
+ return {
6
+ "factor_micro_f1": f1,
7
+ "team_attribution_accuracy": attribution,
8
+ "fallback_rate": fallback,
9
+ "schema_validity_rate": schema,
10
+ "median_latency_ms": latency,
11
+ }
12
+
13
+
14
+ def test_gate_closes_a_consistent_no_ship_decision():
15
+ report = evaluate_qlora_gate(
16
+ _metrics(0.03, 0.05, 0.09),
17
+ _metrics(0.04, 0.03, 0.17),
18
+ {"ship_decision": "NO-SHIP"},
19
+ )
20
+
21
+ assert report["status"] == "closed"
22
+ assert report["computed_decision"] == "NO-SHIP"
23
+ assert report["release_blocking"] is False
24
+ assert "minimum_f1_gain" in report["failed_checks"]
25
+ assert "no_attribution_regression" in report["failed_checks"]
26
+
27
+
28
+ def test_gate_rejects_a_declared_ship_that_misses_thresholds():
29
+ report = evaluate_qlora_gate(
30
+ _metrics(0.03, 0.05, 0.09),
31
+ _metrics(0.04, 0.03, 0.17),
32
+ {"ship_decision": "SHIP"},
33
+ )
34
+
35
+ assert report["status"] == "invalid"
36
+ assert report["release_blocking"] is True
37
+
38
+
39
+ def test_gate_allows_a_material_non_regressing_improvement():
40
+ report = evaluate_qlora_gate(
41
+ _metrics(0.20, 0.50, 0.10),
42
+ _metrics(0.36, 0.52, 0.11),
43
+ {"ship_decision": "SHIP"},
44
+ )
45
+
46
+ assert report["status"] == "closed"
47
+ assert report["computed_decision"] == "SHIP"
48
+ assert all(report["checks"].values())
tests/unit/test_submission_preflight.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ import json
2
+
3
+ from underdog_lab.release.preflight import evaluate_preflight
4
+
5
+
6
+ def _write_json(path, value):
7
+ path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
8
+ path.write_text(json.dumps(value), encoding="utf-8")
9
+
10
+
11
+ def _root(tmp_path):
12
+ _write_json(
13
+ tmp_path / "data/world_cup_2026/teams.json",
14
+ [{"group": group} for group in "ABCDEFGHIJKL" for _ in range(4)],
15
+ )
16
+ _write_json(
17
+ tmp_path / "results/qlora_gate_report.json",
18
+ {"status": "closed", "release_blocking": False},
19
+ )
20
+ _write_json(
21
+ tmp_path / "results/bracket_verification.json",
22
+ {
23
+ "status": "verified",
24
+ "annex_c_combinations": 495,
25
+ "release_blocking": False,
26
+ },
27
+ )
28
+ _write_json(
29
+ tmp_path / "models/backtest_report.json",
30
+ {"ship_gate": {"ship": True}},
31
+ )
32
+ for path in (
33
+ "README.md",
34
+ "LICENSE",
35
+ "docs/field-notes.md",
36
+ "docs/demo-script.md",
37
+ "docs/social-post.md",
38
+ "data/scenarios/README.md",
39
+ ):
40
+ destination = tmp_path / path
41
+ destination.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
42
+ destination.write_text("present", encoding="utf-8")
43
+ return tmp_path
44
+
45
+
46
+ def _config(human_value=""):
47
+ return {
48
+ "space_url": "https://example.com/space",
49
+ "github_url": "https://example.com/code",
50
+ "adapter_url": "https://example.com/adapter",
51
+ "dataset_url": "https://example.com/data",
52
+ "base_model_parameters": 360_000_000,
53
+ "parameter_limit": 32_000_000_000,
54
+ "licenses": {"code": "MIT", "base_model": "Apache-2.0"},
55
+ "human_actions": {"demo_video_url": human_value},
56
+ }
57
+
58
+
59
+ def test_preflight_separates_human_actions_from_machine_blockers(tmp_path):
60
+ report = evaluate_preflight(_root(tmp_path), _config())
61
+
62
+ assert report["status"] == "READY_FOR_HUMAN_SUBMISSION"
63
+ assert report["failed_machine_checks"] == []
64
+ assert report["pending_human_actions"] == ["demo_video_url"]
65
+
66
+
67
+ def test_preflight_is_ready_when_human_actions_are_recorded(tmp_path):
68
+ report = evaluate_preflight(
69
+ _root(tmp_path),
70
+ _config("https://example.com/demo"),
71
+ )
72
+
73
+ assert report["status"] == "READY_TO_SUBMIT"
tests/unit/test_world_cup_2026.py CHANGED
@@ -1,12 +1,21 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.data import TournamentRepository
2
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.forecasting import match_forecast
3
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.simulation import (
4
- _draw_round_of_32,
5
  _knockout_win_probability,
6
  simulate_tournament,
7
  )
8
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.ui import upcoming_html
9
- from underdog_lab.world_cup.standings import calculate_standings
 
10
 
11
 
12
  def test_repository_contains_full_group_stage():
@@ -37,6 +46,21 @@ def test_snapshot_results_update_group_a_table():
37
  assert standings[1].points == 3
38
 
39
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
40
  def test_match_forecast_is_normalized():
41
  repository = TournamentRepository()
42
  forecast = match_forecast(repository.fixtures[0], repository.team_by_name)
@@ -87,15 +111,60 @@ def test_knockout_probability_is_compressed_and_symmetric():
87
  assert abs(spain + south_africa - 1.0) < 1e-8
88
 
89
 
90
- def test_round_of_32_draw_avoids_same_group_rematches():
91
- import random
92
-
93
  repository = TournamentRepository()
94
- qualifiers = [team.team for team in repository.teams[:32]]
95
  groups = {team.team: team.group for team in repository.teams}
96
- draw = _draw_round_of_32(qualifiers, groups, random.Random(4))
97
-
98
- assert all(
99
- groups[draw[index]] != groups[draw[index + 1]]
100
- for index in range(0, len(draw), 2)
101
- )
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ from itertools import combinations
2
+
3
+ from underdog_lab.world_cup.bracket import (
4
+ KNOCKOUT_PATH,
5
+ ROUND_OF_32_SLOTS,
6
+ THIRD_PLACE_MATCH,
7
+ assign_third_place_groups,
8
+ build_round_of_32,
9
+ )
10
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.data import TournamentRepository
11
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.forecasting import match_forecast
12
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.simulation import (
 
13
  _knockout_win_probability,
14
  simulate_tournament,
15
  )
16
  from underdog_lab.world_cup.ui import upcoming_html
17
+ from underdog_lab.world_cup.models import Standing
18
+ from underdog_lab.world_cup.standings import calculate_standings, rank_standings
19
 
20
 
21
  def test_repository_contains_full_group_stage():
 
46
  assert standings[1].points == 3
47
 
48
 
49
+ def test_head_to_head_breaks_equal_points_before_overall_goal_difference():
50
+ table = {
51
+ "Alpha": Standing(team="Alpha", points=6, goals_for=10, goals_against=1),
52
+ "Beta": Standing(team="Beta", points=6, goals_for=3, goals_against=2),
53
+ }
54
+
55
+ ranked = rank_standings(
56
+ table,
57
+ [("Beta", "Alpha", 1, 0)],
58
+ fifa_ranks={"Alpha": 1, "Beta": 20},
59
+ )
60
+
61
+ assert [row.team for row in ranked] == ["Beta", "Alpha"]
62
+
63
+
64
  def test_match_forecast_is_normalized():
65
  repository = TournamentRepository()
66
  forecast = match_forecast(repository.fixtures[0], repository.team_by_name)
 
111
  assert abs(spain + south_africa - 1.0) < 1e-8
112
 
113
 
114
+ def test_round_of_32_uses_published_slots_without_same_group_rematches():
 
 
115
  repository = TournamentRepository()
 
116
  groups = {team.team: team.group for team in repository.teams}
117
+ ranked = {
118
+ group: [
119
+ type("Row", (), {"team": team.team})()
120
+ for team in repository.group_teams(group)
121
+ ]
122
+ for group in "ABCDEFGHIJKL"
123
+ }
124
+ best_thirds = [ranked[group][2] for group in "ABCDEFGH"]
125
+ matches = build_round_of_32(ranked, best_thirds, groups)
126
+
127
+ assert [match for match, _, _ in matches] == list(range(73, 89))
128
+ assert all(groups[first] != groups[second] for _, first, second in matches)
129
+ assert len({team for _, first, second in matches for team in (first, second)}) == 32
130
+
131
+
132
+ def test_all_495_third_place_combinations_have_a_legal_assignment():
133
+ third_slots = {
134
+ slot.match: slot.second_groups
135
+ for slot in ROUND_OF_32_SLOTS
136
+ if slot.second_kind == "third"
137
+ }
138
+ checked = 0
139
+ for groups in combinations("ABCDEFGHIJKL", 8):
140
+ assignment = assign_third_place_groups(groups)
141
+ assert set(assignment.values()) == set(groups)
142
+ assert all(group in third_slots[match] for match, group in assignment.items())
143
+ checked += 1
144
+ assert checked == 495
145
+
146
+
147
+ def test_annex_c_reference_mapping_matches_the_published_first_row():
148
+ assert assign_third_place_groups("EFGHIJKL") == {
149
+ 74: "F",
150
+ 77: "G",
151
+ 79: "E",
152
+ 80: "K",
153
+ 81: "I",
154
+ 82: "H",
155
+ 85: "J",
156
+ 87: "L",
157
+ }
158
+
159
+
160
+ def test_knockout_path_contains_every_match_after_round_of_32():
161
+ matches = {
162
+ match
163
+ for round_matches in KNOCKOUT_PATH.values()
164
+ for match, _, _ in round_matches
165
+ }
166
+
167
+ assert matches | {THIRD_PLACE_MATCH[0]} == set(range(89, 105))
168
+ assert KNOCKOUT_PATH["round_of_16"][0] == (89, 73, 75)
169
+ assert THIRD_PLACE_MATCH == (103, 101, 102)
170
+ assert KNOCKOUT_PATH["champion"] == ((104, 101, 102),)