[
  {
    "match_id": "wc2022-arg-ksa",
    "kickoff_date": "2022-11-22",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Group stage",
    "home_team": "Argentina",
    "away_team": "Saudi Arabia",
    "venue": "Lusail Iconic Stadium",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 1,
    "away_goals": 2,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2143,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 1635,
    "context": "A tournament group match on neutral ground. The home-listed team entered as a clear rating favorite.",
    "reveal_notes": "A low-probability result is not evidence that the original forecast was wrong.",
    "lambda_home": 2.870581,
    "lambda_away": 0.485059
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2014-bra-ger",
    "kickoff_date": "2014-07-08",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Semi-final",
    "home_team": "Brazil",
    "away_team": "Germany",
    "venue": "Mineirao",
    "neutral_venue": false,
    "home_goals": 1,
    "away_goals": 7,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2103,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2085,
    "context": "A World Cup semi-final hosted in the home-listed team's country between two elite teams.",
    "reveal_notes": "Independent Poisson models assign very little mass to extreme scorelines.",
    "lambda_home": 1.376459,
    "lambda_away": 1.011581
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2018-ger-kor",
    "kickoff_date": "2018-06-27",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Group stage",
    "home_team": "Germany",
    "away_team": "South Korea",
    "venue": "Kazan Arena",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 0,
    "away_goals": 2,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2038,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 1747,
    "context": "A final group match on neutral ground with qualification pressure.",
    "reveal_notes": "Game state and late goals can make the final score look less likely than the underlying match.",
    "lambda_home": 1.96357,
    "lambda_away": 0.709116
  },
  {
    "match_id": "euro2004-por-gre-final",
    "kickoff_date": "2004-07-04",
    "competition": "UEFA European Championship",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "Portugal",
    "away_team": "Greece",
    "venue": "Estadio da Luz",
    "neutral_venue": false,
    "home_goals": 0,
    "away_goals": 1,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 1976,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 1882,
    "context": "A continental final hosted by the home-listed team.",
    "reveal_notes": "A defensive tournament team can win without being the most probable winner in one match.",
    "lambda_home": 1.572261,
    "lambda_away": 0.885604
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2010-esp-ned",
    "kickoff_date": "2010-07-11",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "Netherlands",
    "away_team": "Spain",
    "venue": "Soccer City",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 0,
    "away_goals": 1,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2045,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2111,
    "context": "A World Cup final on neutral ground between two highly rated teams.",
    "reveal_notes": "The displayed result is after 90 minutes plus extra time for storytelling; the baseline remains a simplified match model.",
    "lambda_home": 1.051286,
    "lambda_away": 1.324473
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2014-esp-ned",
    "kickoff_date": "2014-06-13",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Group stage",
    "home_team": "Spain",
    "away_team": "Netherlands",
    "venue": "Arena Fonte Nova",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 1,
    "away_goals": 5,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2111,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2023,
    "context": "A tournament group match on neutral ground between the previous finalists.",
    "reveal_notes": "A plausible away win and a five-goal away score are different forecasting questions.",
    "lambda_home": 1.376459,
    "lambda_away": 1.011581
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2022-fra-arg",
    "kickoff_date": "2022-12-18",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "Argentina",
    "away_team": "France",
    "venue": "Lusail Iconic Stadium",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 3,
    "away_goals": 3,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2126,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2110,
    "context": "A World Cup final on neutral ground between nearly equal elite teams.",
    "reveal_notes": "The challenge scores the regulation-plus-extra-time display result as a draw; production betting definitions differ.",
    "lambda_home": 1.213507,
    "lambda_away": 1.147418
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2022-mar-por",
    "kickoff_date": "2022-12-10",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Quarter-final",
    "home_team": "Morocco",
    "away_team": "Portugal",
    "venue": "Al Thumama Stadium",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 1,
    "away_goals": 0,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 1904,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2011,
    "context": "A knockout match on neutral ground between a compact defensive team and a rating favorite.",
    "reveal_notes": "Tournament knockout matches can be lower scoring than a generic international baseline.",
    "lambda_home": 0.978499,
    "lambda_away": 1.422996
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2022-bra-cro",
    "kickoff_date": "2022-12-09",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Quarter-final",
    "home_team": "Croatia",
    "away_team": "Brazil",
    "venue": "Education City Stadium",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 1,
    "away_goals": 1,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 1931,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2158,
    "context": "A knockout match on neutral ground with one team holding a substantial rating advantage.",
    "reveal_notes": "The model forecasts match outcomes, not penalty shootouts.",
    "lambda_home": 0.793156,
    "lambda_away": 1.755519
  },
  {
    "match_id": "euro2020-ita-eng",
    "kickoff_date": "2021-07-11",
    "competition": "UEFA European Championship",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "England",
    "away_team": "Italy",
    "venue": "Wembley Stadium",
    "neutral_venue": false,
    "home_goals": 1,
    "away_goals": 1,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2064,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2033,
    "context": "A continental final played at the home-listed team's national stadium.",
    "reveal_notes": "Finals can remain low scoring even when one side has a venue advantage.",
    "lambda_home": 1.408133,
    "lambda_away": 0.988827
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2018-fra-cro",
    "kickoff_date": "2018-07-15",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "France",
    "away_team": "Croatia",
    "venue": "Luzhniki Stadium",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 4,
    "away_goals": 2,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2053,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 1961,
    "context": "A World Cup final on neutral ground with a moderate rating favorite.",
    "reveal_notes": "The baseline is transparent but does not model correlated score effects.",
    "lambda_home": 1.386128,
    "lambda_away": 1.004525
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2018-bel-jpn",
    "kickoff_date": "2018-07-02",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Round of 16",
    "home_team": "Belgium",
    "away_team": "Japan",
    "venue": "Rostov Arena",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 3,
    "away_goals": 2,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2029,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 1762,
    "context": "A knockout match on neutral ground with a clear rating favorite.",
    "reveal_notes": "A favorite can win while still experiencing a difficult match.",
    "lambda_home": 1.882808,
    "lambda_away": 0.739534
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2014-ger-arg",
    "kickoff_date": "2014-07-13",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "Germany",
    "away_team": "Argentina",
    "venue": "Maracana",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 1,
    "away_goals": 0,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2118,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2057,
    "context": "A World Cup final on neutral ground between two elite teams.",
    "reveal_notes": "Close elite matches naturally retain substantial draw probability.",
    "lambda_home": 1.312934,
    "lambda_away": 1.060525
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2010-ger-eng",
    "kickoff_date": "2010-06-27",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Round of 16",
    "home_team": "Germany",
    "away_team": "England",
    "venue": "Free State Stadium",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 4,
    "away_goals": 1,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 1967,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 1985,
    "context": "A knockout match on neutral ground between similarly rated teams.",
    "reveal_notes": "Scoreline variance is much larger than winner-probability variance.",
    "lambda_home": 1.143409,
    "lambda_away": 1.217762
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2002-bra-ger",
    "kickoff_date": "2002-06-30",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "Germany",
    "away_team": "Brazil",
    "venue": "International Stadium Yokohama",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 0,
    "away_goals": 2,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 1977,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2074,
    "context": "A World Cup final on neutral ground with the away-listed team holding a rating edge.",
    "reveal_notes": "A well-calibrated favorite still loses many individual matches.",
    "lambda_home": 0.995773,
    "lambda_away": 1.39831
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc1998-fra-bra",
    "kickoff_date": "1998-07-12",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "France",
    "away_team": "Brazil",
    "venue": "Stade de France",
    "neutral_venue": false,
    "home_goals": 3,
    "away_goals": 0,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2009,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2084,
    "context": "A World Cup final played in the home-listed team's host country.",
    "reveal_notes": "The app explicitly separates model assumptions from historical narrative.",
    "lambda_home": 1.16972,
    "lambda_away": 1.19037
  },
  {
    "match_id": "euro2016-fra-por",
    "kickoff_date": "2016-07-10",
    "competition": "UEFA European Championship",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "France",
    "away_team": "Portugal",
    "venue": "Stade de France",
    "neutral_venue": false,
    "home_goals": 0,
    "away_goals": 1,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2055,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 1943,
    "context": "A continental final in the home-listed team's host country.",
    "reveal_notes": "Venue advantage changes probability, not certainty.",
    "lambda_home": 1.622575,
    "lambda_away": 0.858142
  },
  {
    "match_id": "copa2021-arg-bra",
    "kickoff_date": "2021-07-10",
    "competition": "Copa America",
    "stage": "Final",
    "home_team": "Brazil",
    "away_team": "Argentina",
    "venue": "Maracana",
    "neutral_venue": false,
    "home_goals": 0,
    "away_goals": 1,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2168,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 2103,
    "context": "A continental final hosted by the home-listed team between close elite rivals.",
    "reveal_notes": "Finals often create tactical conditions not captured by a generic independent Poisson model.",
    "lambda_home": 1.494459,
    "lambda_away": 0.931708
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2022-eng-usa",
    "kickoff_date": "2022-11-25",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Group stage",
    "home_team": "England",
    "away_team": "United States",
    "venue": "Al Bayt Stadium",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 0,
    "away_goals": 0,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 2044,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 1832,
    "context": "A tournament group match on neutral ground with the home-listed team favored by ratings.",
    "reveal_notes": "Independent Poisson models commonly understate some low-score dependencies.",
    "lambda_home": 1.710036,
    "lambda_away": 0.814252
  },
  {
    "match_id": "wc2018-cro-eng",
    "kickoff_date": "2018-07-11",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup",
    "stage": "Semi-final",
    "home_team": "Croatia",
    "away_team": "England",
    "venue": "Luzhniki Stadium",
    "neutral_venue": true,
    "home_goals": 2,
    "away_goals": 1,
    "pre_match_home_elo": 1948,
    "pre_match_away_elo": 1957,
    "context": "A World Cup semi-final on neutral ground between almost equally rated teams.",
    "reveal_notes": "Near-even ratings should produce broad, uncertain outcome probabilities.",
    "lambda_home": 1.161561,
    "lambda_away": 1.198732
  }
]