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Task 3: Cascading Failure Prevention (Hard)
============================================
Objective
---------
Detect correlated alert chains and stop them *before* they cascade into
system failures. This is the defining challenge of the hard task: each
chain's trigger alert arrives first; if the agent fails to handle it
correctly, the *next* alert in the chain is spawned by the environment in
a future step β and so on until the chain terminates in a system failure.
How cascading chains work in this environment
---------------------------------------------
Unlike the easy and medium tasks where alerts are mostly independent, the
hard task environment (correlation_probability = 0.40) frequently spawns
*correlated chains*. The full chain is NOT delivered all at once. Instead:
Step N β trigger alert arrives (chain position 0)
Step N+k β if trigger was IGNORED/DELAYED, child alert arrives (position 1)
Step N+m β if child was missed, grandchild arrives (position 2) β¦etc.
This means the agent must:
1. Recognise a trigger alert before seeing any siblings (the siblings
haven't spawned yet).
2. INVESTIGATE or ESCALATE the trigger, which *stops* the chain from
propagating further.
3. If the trigger is missed, handle each subsequent child aggressively.
The grader tracks chain-level outcomes (was the chain stopped at the
trigger? at the first child? did it run all the way to a system failure?)
and awards bonus/penalty accordingly.
Grading formula (all inputs are deterministic given the same seed)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
component_score = chain_outcome_score + isolation_bonus
+ stability_score β timing_penalty
where:
chain_outcome_score:
Each chain contributes up to 1.0 depending on where it was stopped:
stopped at trigger (position 0) β 1.00
stopped at child (position 1) β 0.70
stopped at position 2 β 0.40
ran to system failure β 0.00
Weighted by the chain's max true_severity so dangerous chains
matter more.
isolation_bonus:
+0.10 per independent (non-correlated) alert correctly handled.
Cap: 0.20 total (so non-correlated work can contribute at most 20 %)
stability_score:
Based on total system failures:
0 failures β 1.00
1 β 0.80
2 β 0.60
3 β 0.30
4+ β 0.00
timing_penalty:
For each chain: 0.05 Γ (stop_position - 1).clamp(0, 3)
Penalises the agent for letting the chain run multiple steps.
Final normalisation:
raw = component_score / max_possible_score β [0, 1]
final = max(0.0, min(raw * stability_score, 1.0))
Success threshold: β₯ 0.50 (intentionally hard to challenge frontier models)
Why this is genuinely hard
--------------------------
- The agent sees only one alert at a time. It cannot know whether an
alert is a chain trigger without correlating its type, timing, and
visible_severity pattern.
- The chain siblings are hidden β they haven't spawned yet when the
trigger arrives, so `is_correlated` can only be known from ground truth.
- Delayed action is penalised: DELAYing a trigger causes a child to spawn.
- The stability multiplier creates a non-linear cliff: even a single
missed chain that reaches failure drops the score significantly.
Integration with env.py
-----------------------
obs, reward, done, info = env.step(action)
# 1. Update correlation state (called EVERY step β chains grow dynamically)
grader.update_correlation_state(info.get("correlation_groups", []))
# 2. Process all actions this step
for alert_data in info.get("processed_alerts", []):
grader.process_step(alert_data, info)
# 3. Record any system failures
grader.record_failures(info.get("failures_this_step", 0))
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Set, Tuple
import numpy as np
from adaptive_alert_triage.models import Action, Alert, Reward
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Constants
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
_CRITICAL_THRESHOLD: float = 0.75
_MEDIUM_THRESHOLD: float = 0.50
_FALSE_POSITIVE_THRESHOLD: float = 0.30
# Chain-stop rewards by position index (0 = trigger, 1 = first child, β¦)
_CHAIN_STOP_REWARDS: Dict[int, float] = {
0: 1.00, # stopped at trigger β best outcome
1: 0.70, # stopped at first child
2: 0.40, # stopped two steps in
3: 0.15, # barely caught it
}
_CHAIN_FAILURE_REWARD: float = 0.00 # ran all the way to failure
_TIMING_PENALTY_PER_STEP: float = 0.05 # extra penalty per position beyond 0
_MAX_TIMING_PENALTY_STEPS: int = 3
# Isolation bonus for correctly handling non-correlated alerts
_ISOLATION_BONUS_PER_ALERT: float = 0.10
_ISOLATION_BONUS_CAP: float = 0.20
# Stability score by failure count (step-function approximation)
_STABILITY_BY_FAILURES: List[Tuple[int, float]] = [
(0, 1.00),
(1, 0.80),
(2, 0.60),
(3, 0.30),
]
_STABILITY_FLOOR: float = 0.00
SUCCESS_THRESHOLD: float = 0.50
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Internal data class for one chain
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
class _ChainRecord:
"""Bookkeeping for a single correlated alert chain."""
__slots__ = (
"chain_id", "alert_ids", "max_severity",
"stop_position", "completed", "hit_failure",
)
def __init__(self, chain_id: int, alert_ids: List[str]) -> None:
self.chain_id: int = chain_id
self.alert_ids: List[str] = list(alert_ids)
self.max_severity: float = 0.0 # updated as alerts arrive
self.stop_position: Optional[int] = None # index where chain was halted
self.completed: bool = False
self.hit_failure: bool = False
def position_of(self, alert_id: str) -> Optional[int]:
try:
return self.alert_ids.index(alert_id)
except ValueError:
return None
def mark_stopped(self, position: int, severity: float) -> None:
if not self.completed:
self.stop_position = position
self.completed = True
self.max_severity = max(self.max_severity, severity)
def mark_failure(self) -> None:
self.hit_failure = True
self.completed = True
def outcome_score(self) -> float:
"""Score for this chain's outcome weighted by severity."""
if self.hit_failure:
return _CHAIN_FAILURE_REWARD
if self.stop_position is None:
return _CHAIN_FAILURE_REWARD # chain never handled
base = _CHAIN_STOP_REWARDS.get(self.stop_position, _CHAIN_FAILURE_REWARD)
timing = _TIMING_PENALTY_PER_STEP * min(self.stop_position,
_MAX_TIMING_PENALTY_STEPS)
return max(0.0, base - timing) * max(self.max_severity, 0.5)
def max_possible(self) -> float:
"""Maximum possible score for this chain."""
return _CHAIN_STOP_REWARDS[0] * max(self.max_severity, 0.5)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Grader
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
class HardTaskGrader:
"""
Grader for Task 3: Cascading Failure Prevention.
Lifecycle (one episode)
-----------------------
1. Instantiate once per episode.
2. After every env.step(action):
a. grader.update_correlation_state(info["correlation_groups"])
b. for alert_data in info["processed_alerts"]:
grader.process_step(alert_data, info)
c. grader.record_failures(info["failures_this_step"])
3. At episode end: grader.get_episode_score() β float β [0.0, 1.0].
4. grader.get_metrics() for a full breakdown.
5. grader.reset() to reuse for a new episode.
"""
def __init__(
self,
correlation_chains: Optional[List[List[str]]] = None,
) -> None:
# Map from chain_id β _ChainRecord (built up over the episode)
self._chains: Dict[int, _ChainRecord] = {}
# Map from alert_id β chain_id for O(1) lookup
self._alert_to_chain: Dict[str, int] = {}
# Independent-alert counters
self._isolation_correct: int = 0
self._isolation_total: int = 0
# System failures
self._system_failures: int = 0
# Overall accumulator (non-correlated alerts only)
self._action_history: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
self._total_actions: int = 0
# Seed with any chains already known at episode start
if correlation_chains:
self.update_correlation_state(correlation_chains)
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# State update (called every step)
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def update_correlation_state(self, chains: List[List[str]]) -> None:
"""
Sync the grader's chain knowledge with the environment's live state.
MUST be called EVERY step with info["correlation_groups"] because
new chains spawn mid-episode as the agent misses trigger alerts.
Args:
chains: Current list-of-lists of correlated alert IDs from
info["correlation_groups"].
"""
for chain_id, alert_ids in enumerate(chains):
if chain_id not in self._chains:
# New chain discovered this step
record = _ChainRecord(chain_id, alert_ids)
self._chains[chain_id] = record
for aid in alert_ids:
self._alert_to_chain[aid] = chain_id
else:
# Existing chain may have grown (new child spawned)
existing = self._chains[chain_id]
for aid in alert_ids:
if aid not in existing.alert_ids:
existing.alert_ids.append(aid)
self._alert_to_chain[aid] = chain_id
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Primary interface
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def process_step(
self,
alert_data: Dict[str, Any],
info: Dict[str, Any], # noqa: ARG002
) -> float:
"""
Evaluate one action using ground-truth data from env.step().
For correlated alerts: updates the chain record (stopped / missed).
For independent alerts: accumulates the isolation bonus.
Args:
alert_data: One entry from info["processed_alerts"].
info: Full info dict (unused here, kept for API symmetry).
Returns:
Immediate contribution to the score (for logging β the true
episode score is only finalised at get_episode_score()).
"""
self._total_actions += 1
alert_id: str = str(alert_data.get("alert_id", ""))
true_sev: float = float(alert_data.get("true_severity", 0.0))
action_type: str = str(alert_data.get("action_taken", ""))
is_corr: bool = bool(alert_data.get("is_correlated", False))
chain_idx: Optional[int] = alert_data.get("correlation_group_index")
# Normalise: use our own chain map if env didn't set the index
if chain_idx is None:
chain_idx = self._alert_to_chain.get(alert_id)
contribution = 0.0
if is_corr and chain_idx is not None and chain_idx in self._chains:
contribution = self._handle_correlated(
alert_id, true_sev, action_type, chain_idx
)
else:
# Independent alert
contribution = self._handle_independent(true_sev, action_type)
self._action_history.append({
"alert_id": alert_id,
"action": action_type,
"true_severity": true_sev,
"is_correlated": is_corr,
"chain_idx": chain_idx,
"contribution": contribution,
})
return contribution
def record_failures(self, count: int) -> None:
"""
Record system failures detected this step.
Call with info["failures_this_step"] after every env.step().
Args:
count: Number of failures this step (0 is fine).
"""
self._system_failures += max(0, int(count))
# Mark all incomplete chains as hit_failure (conservative)
for record in self._chains.values():
if not record.completed and count > 0:
record.mark_failure()
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Legacy API
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def grade_action(
self,
action: Action,
alert: Alert,
reward: Reward,
current_alerts: Optional[List[Alert]] = None,
) -> float:
"""Grade a single action-alert pair (legacy / unit-test API)."""
alert_data = {
"alert_id": alert.id,
"true_severity": alert.true_severity,
"visible_severity": alert.visible_severity,
"confidence": alert.confidence,
"alert_type": alert.alert_type,
"age": alert.age,
"action_taken": action.action_type,
"is_correlated": alert.is_correlated,
"is_false_positive": alert.true_severity < _FALSE_POSITIVE_THRESHOLD,
"correlation_group_index": self._alert_to_chain.get(alert.id),
}
return self.process_step(alert_data, {})
def record_system_failure(self, alert_id: Optional[str] = None) -> None:
"""Legacy single-failure recorder (kept for backward compat)."""
self.record_failures(1)
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Scoring
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def get_episode_score(self) -> float:
"""
Return final normalised score strictly in (0, 1) β never 0.0 or 1.0.
"""
chain_score = sum(c.outcome_score() for c in self._chains.values())
max_chain = sum(c.max_possible() for c in self._chains.values())
isolation = min(
self._isolation_correct * _ISOLATION_BONUS_PER_ALERT,
_ISOLATION_BONUS_CAP,
)
denominator = max(max_chain, 1.0)
raw = (chain_score + isolation) / denominator
stability = self._stability_score(self._system_failures)
# Raw * stability is naturally in [0, 1].
# Map [0, 1] linearly to [0.01, 0.99] without clipping
mapped = (raw * stability * 0.98) + 0.01
return float(round(mapped, 4))
def passed(self) -> bool:
"""Return True if the agent meets the hard-task success threshold."""
return self.get_episode_score() >= SUCCESS_THRESHOLD
def calculate_correlation_detection_rate(self) -> float:
"""
Fraction of chains that were successfully stopped (any position).
Returns 1.0 when no chains exist (nothing to detect).
"""
if not self._chains:
return 1.0
stopped = sum(
1 for c in self._chains.values()
if c.completed and not c.hit_failure
)
raw = stopped / len(self._chains)
return raw
def calculate_stability_score(self) -> float:
"""Return the stability multiplier for the current failure count."""
return self._stability_score(self._system_failures)
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Metrics
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def get_metrics(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Return a full breakdown of episode performance."""
score = self.get_episode_score()
corr_rate = self.calculate_correlation_detection_rate()
stability = self.calculate_stability_score()
chain_details = []
for cid, rec in sorted(self._chains.items()):
chain_details.append({
"chain_id": cid,
"length": len(rec.alert_ids),
"max_severity": rec.max_severity,
"stop_position": rec.stop_position,
"hit_failure": rec.hit_failure,
"outcome_score": rec.outcome_score(),
})
breakdown: Dict[str, int] = {
"INVESTIGATE": 0, "IGNORE": 0, "ESCALATE": 0, "DELAY": 0,
}
for h in self._action_history:
breakdown[h["action"]] = breakdown.get(h["action"], 0) + 1
return {
"overall_score": score,
"passed": self.passed(),
"success_threshold": SUCCESS_THRESHOLD,
"chain_score": sum(c.outcome_score() for c in self._chains.values()),
"max_chain_score": sum(c.max_possible() for c in self._chains.values()),
"correlation_detection_rate": corr_rate,
"total_chains": len(self._chains),
"chains_stopped": sum(1 for c in self._chains.values()
if c.completed and not c.hit_failure),
"chains_at_trigger": sum(1 for c in self._chains.values()
if c.stop_position == 0),
"chains_hit_failure": sum(1 for c in self._chains.values()
if c.hit_failure),
"chain_details": chain_details,
"isolation_correct": self._isolation_correct,
"isolation_total": self._isolation_total,
"system_failures": self._system_failures,
"stability_score": stability,
"total_actions": self._total_actions,
"action_breakdown": breakdown,
}
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Housekeeping
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def reset(self) -> None:
"""Reset all state for a new episode."""
self._chains = {}
self._alert_to_chain = {}
self._isolation_correct = 0
self._isolation_total = 0
self._system_failures = 0
self._action_history = []
self._total_actions = 0
def __repr__(self) -> str:
score = self.get_episode_score()
corr_r = self.calculate_correlation_detection_rate()
return (
f"HardTaskGrader(score={score:.3f}, "
f"failures={self._system_failures}, "
f"chains={len(self._chains)}, "
f"detection_rate={corr_r:.3f}, "
f"passed={self.passed()})"
)
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Private helpers
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def _handle_correlated(
self,
alert_id: str,
true_sev: float,
action_type: str,
chain_idx: int,
) -> float:
"""
Update chain record based on action and return immediate contribution.
If the action is INVESTIGATE or ESCALATE β chain is stopped here.
If IGNORE or DELAY β chain continues (child will spawn next step).
"""
record = self._chains[chain_idx]
position = record.position_of(alert_id)
if position is None:
position = len(record.alert_ids) # fallback: treat as end of chain
record.max_severity = max(record.max_severity, true_sev)
proactive = action_type in ("INVESTIGATE", "ESCALATE")
if proactive:
# Agent stopped the chain at this position
record.mark_stopped(position, true_sev)
base = _CHAIN_STOP_REWARDS.get(position, _CHAIN_FAILURE_REWARD)
timing = _TIMING_PENALTY_PER_STEP * min(position, _MAX_TIMING_PENALTY_STEPS)
contrib = max(0.0, base - timing) * max(true_sev, 0.5)
else:
# Agent missed this alert β chain propagates
# Give a small negative signal so the agent learns
if true_sev >= _CRITICAL_THRESHOLD:
contrib = -0.30 * true_sev
else:
contrib = -0.10
return contrib
def _handle_independent(self, true_sev: float, action_type: str) -> float:
"""
Score a non-correlated alert action and accumulate isolation bonus.
Returns a small contribution that feeds into the isolation bonus pool.
"""
self._isolation_total += 1
is_correct = self._independent_correct(action_type, true_sev)
if is_correct:
self._isolation_correct += 1
return _ISOLATION_BONUS_PER_ALERT
return 0.0
@staticmethod
def _independent_correct(action_type: str, true_sev: float) -> bool:
"""Correctness rule for non-correlated alerts (same as easy task)."""
if true_sev >= _CRITICAL_THRESHOLD:
return action_type in ("INVESTIGATE", "ESCALATE")
if true_sev < _FALSE_POSITIVE_THRESHOLD:
return action_type == "IGNORE"
# Medium
return action_type in ("INVESTIGATE", "ESCALATE")
@staticmethod
def _stability_score(failures: int) -> float:
"""Step-function stability multiplier."""
for threshold, score in _STABILITY_BY_FAILURES:
if failures <= threshold:
return score
return _STABILITY_FLOOR
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Evaluation helper
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def run_episode_evaluation(
agent,
env,
num_episodes: int = 10,
seed_offset: int = 0,
verbose: bool = False,
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""
Run multiple episodes and return aggregated grading results.
Args:
agent: Agent with .act(observation) -> Action method.
env: AdaptiveAlertTriageEnv(task_id="hard") instance.
num_episodes: Number of episodes to run.
seed_offset: Added to episode index for the reset seed.
verbose: Print per-episode summary when True.
Returns:
Dict with keys: mean_score, std_score, min_score, max_score,
success_rate, mean_failures, mean_detection_rate,
episode_scores, episode_metrics.
"""
episode_scores: List[float] = []
episode_metrics: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
for ep in range(num_episodes):
grader = HardTaskGrader()
obs = env.reset(seed=seed_offset + ep)
done = False
while not done:
if not obs.alerts:
break
action = agent.act(obs)
obs, _reward, done, info = env.step(action)
# 1. Update chain knowledge (MUST be before process_step)
grader.update_correlation_state(info.get("correlation_groups", []))
# 2. Grade actions
for alert_data in info.get("processed_alerts", []):
grader.process_step(alert_data, info)
# 3. Record failures
grader.record_failures(info.get("failures_this_step", 0))
score = grader.get_episode_score()
metrics = grader.get_metrics()
episode_scores.append(score)
episode_metrics.append(metrics)
if verbose:
print(
f" ep {ep + 1:02d} score={score:.3f} "
f"failures={metrics['system_failures']} "
f"chains={metrics['chains_stopped']}/{metrics['total_chains']} "
f"passed={metrics['passed']}"
)
scores_arr = np.array(episode_scores)
fail_arr = np.array([m["system_failures"] for m in episode_metrics])
det_arr = np.array([m["correlation_detection_rate"] for m in episode_metrics])
return {
"mean_score": float(scores_arr.mean()),
"std_score": float(scores_arr.std()),
"min_score": float(scores_arr.min()),
"max_score": float(scores_arr.max()),
"success_rate": float((scores_arr >= SUCCESS_THRESHOLD).mean()),
"mean_failures": float(fail_arr.mean()),
"mean_detection_rate": float(det_arr.mean()),
"episode_scores": episode_scores,
"episode_metrics": episode_metrics,
}
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Self-test
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
if __name__ == "__main__":
print("HardTaskGrader β self-test\n" + "=" * 60)
from adaptive_alert_triage.models import Alert, Action, Reward
def _alert(aid: str, true_sev: float, correlated: bool = False) -> Alert:
return Alert(
id=aid, visible_severity=true_sev * 0.95, confidence=0.85,
alert_type="CPU", age=1, true_severity=true_sev,
is_correlated=correlated,
)
# ββ Scenario 1: Agent stops chain at trigger ββββββββββββββββββββββ
print("\n[Scenario 1] Agent catches trigger alert β chain stops immediately")
grader = HardTaskGrader()
grader.update_correlation_state([["cpu_01", "mem_01", "app_01"]])
a = _alert("cpu_01", 0.80, correlated=True)
contrib = grader.grade_action(Action(alert_id="cpu_01", action_type="INVESTIGATE"), a, Reward(value=0))
print(f" Trigger INVESTIGATE contrib={contrib:+.4f}")
grader.record_failures(0)
score = grader.get_episode_score()
m = grader.get_metrics()
print(f" Episode score : {score:.4f} (expected β₯ 0.5)")
print(f" Chains stopped at trigger: {m['chains_at_trigger']}")
assert score >= 0.50, f"Expected β₯0.50, got {score}"
assert m["chains_at_trigger"] == 1
# ββ Scenario 2: Agent misses trigger β child spawns β agent catches child ββ
print("\n[Scenario 2] Agent misses trigger, catches first child")
grader2 = HardTaskGrader()
grader2.update_correlation_state([["cpu_02", "mem_02", "app_02"]])
# Miss trigger
a1 = _alert("cpu_02", 0.78, correlated=True)
c1 = grader2.grade_action(Action(alert_id="cpu_02", action_type="IGNORE"), a1, Reward(value=0))
print(f" Trigger IGNORE contrib={c1:+.4f} (penalty expected)")
# Child alert spawned, agent catches it
a2 = _alert("mem_02", 0.85, correlated=True)
c2 = grader2.grade_action(Action(alert_id="mem_02", action_type="INVESTIGATE"), a2, Reward(value=0))
print(f" Child INVESTIGATE contrib={c2:+.4f}")
grader2.record_failures(0)
score2 = grader2.get_episode_score()
print(f" Episode score : {score2:.4f} (expected < scenario 1 score)")
assert score2 < score, "Catching child should score less than catching trigger"
# ββ Scenario 3: Full failure β agent misses entire chain βββββββββββ
print("\n[Scenario 3] Agent misses all chain alerts β system failure")
grader3 = HardTaskGrader()
grader3.update_correlation_state([["cpu_03", "mem_03", "app_03"]])
for aid, sev in [("cpu_03", 0.80), ("mem_03", 0.88), ("app_03", 0.92)]:
a = _alert(aid, sev, correlated=True)
grader3.grade_action(Action(alert_id=aid, action_type="IGNORE"), a, Reward(value=0))
grader3.record_failures(1) # system failure registered
score3 = grader3.get_episode_score()
print(f" Episode score : {score3:.4f} (expected β 0)")
assert score3 < 0.3, f"Missed entire chain + failure should score < 0.3, got {score3}"
# ββ Determinism check βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
print("\n[Determinism] Same inputs β same score")
def _run_fixed() -> float:
g = HardTaskGrader()
g.update_correlation_state([["x1", "x2"]])
a = _alert("x1", 0.82, correlated=True)
g.grade_action(Action(alert_id="x1", action_type="INVESTIGATE"), a, Reward(value=0))
g.record_failures(0)
return g.get_episode_score()
s_a, s_b = _run_fixed(), _run_fixed()
assert s_a == s_b, f"Non-deterministic: {s_a} != {s_b}"
print(f" Score both runs: {s_a:.6f} β")
print("\n" + "=" * 60)
print("All self-tests passed!") |