Clustering validity based on the most similarity

One basic requirement of many studies is the necessity of classifying data. Clustering is a proposed method for summarizing networks. Clustering methods can be divided into two categories named model-based approaches and algorithmic approaches. Since the most of clustering methods depend on their input parameters, it is important to evaluate the result of a clustering algorithm with its different input parameters, to choose the most appropriate one. There are several clustering validity techniques based on inner density and outer density of clusters that represent different metrics to choose the most appropriate clustering independent of the input parameters. According to dependency of previous methods on the input parameters, one challenge in facing with large systems, is to complete data incrementally that effects on the final choice of the most appropriate clustering. Those methods define the existence of high intensity in a cluster, and low intensity among different clusters as the measure of choosing the optimal clustering. This measure has a tremendous problem, not availing all data at the first stage. In this paper, we introduce an efficient measure in which maximum number of repetitions for various initial values occurs.


Canonical dual solutions to nonconvex radial basis neural network optimization problem

Radial Basis Functions Neural Networks (RBFNNs) are tools widely used in regression problems. One of their principal drawbacks is that the formulation corresponding to the training with the supervision of both the centers and the weights is a highly non-convex optimization problem, which leads to some fundamentally difficulties for traditional optimization theory and methods. This paper presents a generalized canonical duality theory for solving this challenging problem. We demonstrate that by sequential canonical dual transformations, the nonconvex optimization problem of the RBFNN can be reformulated as a canonical dual problem (without duality gap). Both global optimal solution and local extrema can be classified. Several applications to one of the most used Radial Basis Functions, the Gaussian function, are illustrated. Our results show that even for one-dimensional case, the global minimizer of the nonconvex problem may not be the best solution to the RBFNNs, and the canonical dual theory is a promising tool for solving general neural networks training problems.


Metrics for Multivariate Dictionaries

Overcomplete representations and dictionary learning algorithms kept attracting a growing interest in the machine learning community. This paper addresses the emerging problem of comparing multivariate overcomplete representations. Despite a recurrent need to rely on a distance for learning or assessing multivariate overcomplete representations, no metrics in their underlying spaces have yet been proposed. Henceforth we propose to study overcomplete representations from the perspective of frame theory and matrix manifolds. We consider distances between multivariate dictionaries as distances between their spans which reveal to be elements of a Grassmannian manifold. We introduce Wasserstein-like set-metrics defined on Grassmannian spaces and study their properties both theoretically and numerically. Indeed a deep experimental study based on tailored synthetic datasetsand real EEG signals for Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI) have been conducted. In particular, the introduced metrics have been embedded in clustering algorithm and applied to BCI Competition IV-2a for dataset quality assessment. Besides, a principled connection is made between three close but still disjoint research fields, namely, Grassmannian packing, dictionary learning and compressed sensing.


Feature Multi-Selection among Subjective Features

When dealing with subjective, noisy, or otherwise nebulous features, the "wisdom of crowds" suggests that one may benefit from multiple judgments of the same feature on the same object. We give theoretically-motivated `feature multi-selection' algorithms that choose, among a large set of candidate features, not only which features to judge but how many times to judge each one. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach for linear regression on a crowdsourced learning task of predicting people's height and weight from photos, using features such as 'gender' and 'estimated weight' as well as culturally fraught ones such as 'attractive'.


On Translation Invariant Kernels and Screw Functions

We explore the connection between Hilbertian metrics and positive definite kernels on the real line. In particular, we look at a well-known characterization of translation invariant Hilbertian metrics on the real line by von Neumann and Schoenberg (1941). Using this result we are able to give an alternate proof of Bochner's theorem for translation invariant positive definite kernels on the real line (Rudin, 1962).


Online Learning with Switching Costs and Other Adaptive Adversaries

We study the power of different types of adaptive (nonoblivious) adversaries in the setting of prediction with expert advice, under both full-information and bandit feedback. We measure the player's performance using a new notion of regret, also known as policy regret, which better captures the adversary's adaptiveness to the player's behavior. In a setting where losses are allowed to drift, we characterize ---in a nearly complete manner--- the power of adaptive adversaries with bounded memories and switching costs. In particular, we show that with switching costs, the attainable rate with bandit feedback is $\widetilde{\Theta}(T^{2/3})$. Interestingly, this rate is significantly worse than the $\Theta(\sqrt{T})$ rate attainable with switching costs in the full-information case. Via a novel reduction from experts to bandits, we also show that a bounded memory adversary can force $\widetilde{\Theta}(T^{2/3})$ regret even in the full information case, proving that switching costs are easier to control than bounded memory adversaries. Our lower bounds rely on a new stochastic adversary strategy that generates loss processes with strong dependencies.


Maxout Networks

We consider the problem of designing models to leverage a recently introduced approximate model averaging technique called dropout. We define a simple new model called maxout (so named because its output is the max of a set of inputs, and because it is a natural companion to dropout) designed to both facilitate optimization by dropout and improve the accuracy of dropout's fast approximate model averaging technique. We empirically verify that the model successfully accomplishes both of these tasks. We use maxout and dropout to demonstrate state of the art classification performance on four benchmark datasets: MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and SVHN.


Breaking the Small Cluster Barrier of Graph Clustering

This paper investigates graph clustering in the planted cluster model in the presence of {\em small clusters}. Traditional results dictate that for an algorithm to provably correctly recover the clusters, {\em all} clusters must be sufficiently large (in particular, $\tilde{\Omega}(\sqrt{n})$ where $n$ is the number of nodes of the graph). We show that this is not really a restriction: by a more refined analysis of the trace-norm based recovery approach proposed in Jalali et al. (2011) and Chen et al. (2012), we prove that small clusters, under certain mild assumptions, do not hinder recovery of large ones. Based on this result, we further devise an iterative algorithm to recover {\em almost all clusters} via a "peeling strategy", i.e., recover large clusters first, leading to a reduced problem, and repeat this procedure. These results are extended to the {\em partial observation} setting, in which only a (chosen) part of the graph is observed.The peeling strategy gives rise to an active learning algorithm, in which edges adjacent to smaller clusters are queried more often as large clusters are learned (and removed). From a high level, this paper sheds novel insights on high-dimensional statistics and learning structured data, by presenting a structured matrix learning problem for which a one shot convex relaxation approach necessarily fails, but a carefully constructed sequence of convex relaxationsdoes the job.


Optimal Discriminant Functions Based On Sampled Distribution Distance for Modulation Classification

In this letter, we derive the optimal discriminant functions for modulation classification based on the sampled distribution distance. The proposed method classifies various candidate constellations using a low complexity approach based on the distribution distance at specific testpoints along the cumulative distribution function. This method, based on the Bayesian decision criteria, asymptotically provides the minimum classification error possible given a set of testpoints. Testpoint locations are also optimized to improve classification performance. The method provides significant gains over existing approaches that also use the distribution of the signal features.


A Labeled Graph Kernel for Relationship Extraction

In this paper, we propose an approach for Relationship Extraction (RE) based on labeled graph kernels. The kernel we propose is a particularization of a random walk kernel that exploits two properties previously studied in the RE literature: (i) the words between the candidate entities or connecting them in a syntactic representation are particularly likely to carry information regarding the relationship; and (ii) combining information from distinct sources in a kernel may help the RE system make better decisions. We performed experiments on a dataset of protein-protein interactions and the results show that our approach obtains effectiveness values that are comparable with the state-of-the art kernel methods. Moreover, our approach is able to outperform the state-of-the-art kernels when combined with other kernel methods.


Fast methods for denoising matrix completion formulations, with applications to robust seismic data interpolation

Recent SVD-free matrix factorization formulations have enabled rank minimization for systems with millions of rows and columns, paving the way for matrix completion in extremely large-scale applications, such as seismic data interpolation. In this paper, we consider matrix completion formulations designed to hit a target data-fitting error level provided by the user, and propose an algorithm called LR-BPDN that is able to exploit factorized formulations to solve the corresponding optimization problem. Since practitioners typically have strong prior knowledge about target error level, this innovation makes it easy to apply the algorithm in practice, leaving only the factor rank to be determined. Within the established framework, we propose two extensions that are highly relevant to solving practical challenges of data interpolation. First, we propose a weighted extension that allows known subspace information to improve the results of matrix completion formulations. We show how this weighting can be used in the context of frequency continuation, an essential aspect to seismic data interpolation. Second, we propose matrix completion formulations that are robust to large measurement errors in the available data. We illustrate the advantages of LR-BPDN on the collaborative filtering problem using the MovieLens 1M, 10M, and Netflix 100M datasets. Then, we use the new method, along with its robust and subspace re-weighted extensions, to obtain high-quality reconstructions for large scale seismic interpolation problems with real data, even in the presence of data contamination.


Structure Discovery in Nonparametric Regression through Compositional Kernel Search

Despite its importance, choosing the structural form of the kernel in nonparametric regression remains a black art. We define a space of kernel structures which are built compositionally by adding and multiplying a small number of base kernels. We present a method for searching over this space of structures which mirrors the scientific discovery process. The learned structures can often decompose functions into interpretable components and enable long-range extrapolation on time-series datasets. Our structure search method outperforms many widely used kernels and kernel combination methods on a variety of prediction tasks.


A Characterization of the Dirichlet Distribution with Application to Learning Bayesian Networks

We provide a new characterization of the Dirichlet distribution. This characterization implies that under assumptions made by several previous authors for learning belief networks, a Dirichlet prior on the parameters is inevitable.


Estimating Continuous Distributions in Bayesian Classifiers

When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated by a single Gaussian. In this paper we abandon the normality assumption and instead use statistical methods for nonparametric density estimation. For a naive Bayesian classifier, we present experimental results on a variety of natural and artificial domains, comparing two methods of density estimation: assuming normality and modeling each conditional distribution with a single Gaussian; and using nonparametric kernel density estimation. We observe large reductions in error on several natural and artificial data sets, which suggests that kernel estimation is a useful tool for learning Bayesian models.


Matching Pursuit LASSO Part II: Applications and Sparse Recovery over Batch Signals

Matching Pursuit LASSIn Part I \cite{TanPMLPart1}, a Matching Pursuit LASSO ({MPL}) algorithm has been presented for solving large-scale sparse recovery (SR) problems. In this paper, we present a subspace search to further improve the performance of MPL, and then continue to address another major challenge of SR -- batch SR with many signals, a consideration which is absent from most of previous $\ell_1$-norm methods. As a result, a batch-mode {MPL} is developed to vastly speed up sparse recovery of many signals simultaneously. Comprehensive numerical experiments on compressive sensing and face recognition tasks demonstrate the superior performance of MPL and BMPL over other methods considered in this paper, in terms of sparse recovery ability and efficiency. In particular, BMPL is up to 400 times faster than existing $\ell_1$-norm methods considered to be state-of-the-art.O Part II: Applications and Sparse Recovery over Batch Signals


Pooling-Invariant Image Feature Learning

Unsupervised dictionary learning has been a key component in state-of-the-art computer vision recognition architectures. While highly effective methods exist for patch-based dictionary learning, these methods may learn redundant features after the pooling stage in a given early vision architecture. In this paper, we offer a novel dictionary learning scheme to efficiently take into account the invariance of learned features after the spatial pooling stage. The algorithm is built on simple clustering, and thus enjoys efficiency and scalability. We discuss the underlying mechanism that justifies the use of clustering algorithms, and empirically show that the algorithm finds better dictionaries than patch-based methods with the same dictionary size.


High-Dimensional Probability Estimation with Deep Density Models

One of the fundamental problems in machine learning is the estimation of a probability distribution from data. Many techniques have been proposed to study the structure of data, most often building around the assumption that observations lie on a lower-dimensional manifold of high probability. It has been more difficult, however, to exploit this insight to build explicit, tractable density models for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we introduce the deep density model (DDM), a new approach to density estimation. We exploit insights from deep learning to construct a bijective map to a representation space, under which the transformation of the distribution of the data is approximately factorized and has identical and known marginal densities. The simplicity of the latent distribution under the model allows us to feasibly explore it, and the invertibility of the map to characterize contraction of measure across it. This enables us to compute normalized densities for out-of-sample data. This combination of tractability and flexibility allows us to tackle a variety of probabilistic tasks on high-dimensional datasets, including: rapid computation of normalized densities at test-time without evaluating a partition function; generation of samples without MCMC; and characterization of the joint entropy of the data.


Prediction and Clustering in Signed Networks: A Local to Global Perspective

The study of social networks is a burgeoning research area. However, most existing work deals with networks that simply encode whether relationships exist or not. In contrast, relationships in signed networks can be positive ("like", "trust") or negative ("dislike", "distrust"). The theory of social balance shows that signed networks tend to conform to some local patterns that, in turn, induce certain global characteristics. In this paper, we exploit both local as well as global aspects of social balance theory for two fundamental problems in the analysis of signed networks: sign prediction and clustering. Motivated by local patterns of social balance, we first propose two families of sign prediction methods: measures of social imbalance (MOIs), and supervised learning using high order cycles (HOCs). These methods predict signs of edges based on triangles and \ell-cycles for relatively small values of \ell. Interestingly, by examining measures of social imbalance, we show that the classic Katz measure, which is used widely in unsigned link prediction, actually has a balance theoretic interpretation when applied to signed networks. Furthermore, motivated by the global structure of balanced networks, we propose an effective low rank modeling approach for both sign prediction and clustering. For the low rank modeling approach, we provide theoretical performance guarantees via convex relaxations, scale it up to large problem sizes using a matrix factorization based algorithm, and provide extensive experimental validation including comparisons with local approaches. Our experimental results indicate that, by adopting a more global viewpoint of balance structure, we get significant performance and computational gains in prediction and clustering tasks on signed networks. Our work therefore highlights the usefulness of the global aspect of balance theory for the analysis of signed networks.


Graph-based Generalization Bounds for Learning Binary Relations

We investigate the generalizability of learned binary relations: functions that map pairs of instances to a logical indicator. This problem has application in numerous areas of machine learning, such as ranking, entity resolution and link prediction. Our learning framework incorporates an example labeler that, given a sequence $X$ of $n$ instances and a desired training size $m$, subsamples $m$ pairs from $X \times X$ without replacement. The challenge in analyzing this learning scenario is that pairwise combinations of random variables are inherently dependent, which prevents us from using traditional learning-theoretic arguments. We present a unified, graph-based analysis, which allows us to analyze this dependence using well-known graph identities. We are then able to bound the generalization error of learned binary relations using Rademacher complexity and algorithmic stability. The rate of uniform convergence is partially determined by the labeler's subsampling process. We thus examine how various assumptions about subsampling affect generalization; under a natural random subsampling process, our bounds guarantee $\tilde{O}(1/\sqrt{n})$ uniform convergence.


Nonparametric Basis Pursuit via Sparse Kernel-based Learning

Signal processing tasks as fundamental as sampling, reconstruction, minimum mean-square error interpolation and prediction can be viewed under the prism of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Endowing this vantage point with contemporary advances in sparsity-aware modeling and processing, promotes the nonparametric basis pursuit advocated in this paper as the overarching framework for the confluence of kernel-based learning (KBL) approaches leveraging sparse linear regression, nuclear-norm regularization, and dictionary learning. The novel sparse KBL toolbox goes beyond translating sparse parametric approaches to their nonparametric counterparts, to incorporate new possibilities such as multi-kernel selection and matrix smoothing. The impact of sparse KBL to signal processing applications is illustrated through test cases from cognitive radio sensing, microarray data imputation, and network traffic prediction.


The Importance of Clipping in Neurocontrol by Direct Gradient Descent on the Cost-to-Go Function and in Adaptive Dynamic Programming

In adaptive dynamic programming, neurocontrol and reinforcement learning, the objective is for an agent to learn to choose actions so as to minimise a total cost function. In this paper we show that when discretized time is used to model the motion of the agent, it can be very important to do "clipping" on the motion of the agent in the final time step of the trajectory. By clipping we mean that the final time step of the trajectory is to be truncated such that the agent stops exactly at the first terminal state reached, and no distance further. We demonstrate that when clipping is omitted, learning performance can fail to reach the optimum; and when clipping is done properly, learning performance can improve significantly. The clipping problem we describe affects algorithms which use explicit derivatives of the model functions of the environment to calculate a learning gradient. These include Backpropagation Through Time for Control, and methods based on Dual Heuristic Dynamic Programming. However the clipping problem does not significantly affect methods based on Heuristic Dynamic Programming, Temporal Differences or Policy Gradient Learning algorithms. Similarly, the clipping problem does not affect fixed-length finite-horizon problems.


Accelerated Linear SVM Training with Adaptive Variable Selection Frequencies

Support vector machine (SVM) training is an active research area since the dawn of the method. In recent years there has been increasing interest in specialized solvers for the important case of linear models. The algorithm presented by Hsieh et al., probably best known under the name of the "liblinear" implementation, marks a major breakthrough. The method is analog to established dual decomposition algorithms for training of non-linear SVMs, but with greatly reduced computational complexity per update step. This comes at the cost of not keeping track of the gradient of the objective any more, which excludes the application of highly developed working set selection algorithms. We present an algorithmic improvement to this method. We replace uniform working set selection with an online adaptation of selection frequencies. The adaptation criterion is inspired by modern second order working set selection methods. The same mechanism replaces the shrinking heuristic. This novel technique speeds up training in some cases by more than an order of magnitude.


Sparse Signal Estimation by Maximally Sparse Convex Optimization

This paper addresses the problem of sparsity penalized least squares for applications in sparse signal processing, e.g. sparse deconvolution. This paper aims to induce sparsity more strongly than L1 norm regularization, while avoiding non-convex optimization. For this purpose, this paper describes the design and use of non-convex penalty functions (regularizers) constrained so as to ensure the convexity of the total cost function, F, to be minimized. The method is based on parametric penalty functions, the parameters of which are constrained to ensure convexity of F. It is shown that optimal parameters can be obtained by semidefinite programming (SDP). This maximally sparse convex (MSC) approach yields maximally non-convex sparsity-inducing penalty functions constrained such that the total cost function, F, is convex. It is demonstrated that iterative MSC (IMSC) can yield solutions substantially more sparse than the standard convex sparsity-inducing approach, i.e., L1 norm minimization.


Prediction by Random-Walk Perturbation

We propose a version of the follow-the-perturbed-leader online prediction algorithm in which the cumulative losses are perturbed by independent symmetric random walks. The forecaster is shown to achieve an expected regret of the optimal order O(sqrt(n log N)) where n is the time horizon and N is the number of experts. More importantly, it is shown that the forecaster changes its prediction at most O(sqrt(n log N)) times, in expectation. We also extend the analysis to online combinatorial optimization and show that even in this more general setting, the forecaster rarely switches between experts while having a regret of near-optimal order.


On learning parametric-output HMMs

We present a novel approach for learning an HMM whose outputs are distributed according to a parametric family. This is done by {\em decoupling} the learning task into two steps: first estimating the output parameters, and then estimating the hidden states transition probabilities. The first step is accomplished by fitting a mixture model to the output stationary distribution. Given the parameters of this mixture model, the second step is formulated as the solution of an easily solvable convex quadratic program. We provide an error analysis for the estimated transition probabilities and show they are robust to small perturbations in the estimates of the mixture parameters. Finally, we support our analysis with some encouraging empirical results.


Phoneme discrimination using $KS$-algebra II

$KS$-algebra consists of expressions constructed with four kinds operations, the minimum, maximum, difference and additively homogeneous generalized means. Five families of $Z$-classifiers are investigated on binary classification tasks between English phonemes. It is shown that the classifiers are able to reflect well known formant characteristics of vowels, while having very small Kolmogoroff's complexity.


A Homogeneous Ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting

Enhancing the robustness and accuracy of time series forecasting models is an active area of research. Recently, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have found extensive applications in many practical forecasting problems. However, the standard backpropagation ANN training algorithm has some critical issues, e.g. it has a slow convergence rate and often converges to a local minimum, the complex pattern of error surfaces, lack of proper training parameters selection methods, etc. To overcome these drawbacks, various improved training methods have been developed in literature; but, still none of them can be guaranteed as the best for all problems. In this paper, we propose a novel weighted ensemble scheme which intelligently combines multiple training algorithms to increase the ANN forecast accuracies. The weight for each training algorithm is determined from the performance of the corresponding ANN model on the validation dataset. Experimental results on four important time series depicts that our proposed technique reduces the mentioned shortcomings of individual ANN training algorithms to a great extent. Also it achieves significantly better forecast accuracies than two other popular statistical models.


Rate-Distortion Bounds for an Epsilon-Insensitive Distortion Measure

Direct evaluation of the rate-distortion function has rarely been achieved when it is strictly greater than its Shannon lower bound. In this paper, we consider the rate-distortion function for the distortion measure defined by an epsilon-insensitive loss function. We first present the Shannon lower bound applicable to any source distribution with finite differential entropy. Then, focusing on the Laplacian and Gaussian sources, we prove that the rate-distortion functions of these sources are strictly greater than their Shannon lower bounds and obtain analytically evaluable upper bounds for the rate-distortion functions. Small distortion limit and numerical evaluation of the bounds suggest that the Shannon lower bound provides a good approximation to the rate-distortion function for the epsilon-insensitive distortion measure.


The adaptive Gril estimator with a diverging number of parameters

We consider the problem of variables selection and estimation in linear regression model in situations where the number of parameters diverges with the sample size. We propose the adaptive Generalized Ridge-Lasso (\mbox{AdaGril}) which is an extension of the the adaptive Elastic Net. AdaGril incorporates information redundancy among correlated variables for model selection and estimation. It combines the strengths of the quadratic regularization and the adaptively weighted Lasso shrinkage. In this paper, we highlight the grouped selection property for AdaCnet method (one type of AdaGril) in the equal correlation case. Under weak conditions, we establish the oracle property of AdaGril which ensures the optimal large performance when the dimension is high. Consequently, it achieves both goals of handling the problem of collinearity in high dimension and enjoys the oracle property. Moreover, we show that AdaGril estimator achieves a Sparsity Inequality, i. e., a bound in terms of the number of non-zero components of the 'true' regression coefficient. This bound is obtained under a similar weak Restricted Eigenvalue (RE) condition used for Lasso. Simulations studies show that some particular cases of AdaGril outperform its competitors.


ML4PG in Computer Algebra verification

ML4PG is a machine-learning extension that provides statistical proof hints during the process of Coq/SSReflect proof development. In this paper, we use ML4PG to find proof patterns in the CoqEAL library -- a library that was devised to verify the correctness of Computer Algebra algorithms. In particular, we use ML4PG to help us in the formalisation of an efficient algorithm to compute the inverse of triangular matrices.


A Conformal Prediction Approach to Explore Functional Data

This paper applies conformal prediction techniques to compute simultaneous prediction bands and clustering trees for functional data. These tools can be used to detect outliers and clusters. Both our prediction bands and clustering trees provide prediction sets for the underlying stochastic process with a guaranteed finite sample behavior, under no distributional assumptions. The prediction sets are also informative in that they correspond to the high density region of the underlying process. While ordinary conformal prediction has high computational cost for functional data, we use the inductive conformal predictor, together with several novel choices of conformity scores, to simplify the computation. Our methods are illustrated on some real data examples.


Sparse Frequency Analysis with Sparse-Derivative Instantaneous Amplitude and Phase Functions

This paper addresses the problem of expressing a signal as a sum of frequency components (sinusoids) wherein each sinusoid may exhibit abrupt changes in its amplitude and/or phase. The Fourier transform of a narrow-band signal, with a discontinuous amplitude and/or phase function, exhibits spectral and temporal spreading. The proposed method aims to avoid such spreading by explicitly modeling the signal of interest as a sum of sinusoids with time-varying amplitudes. So as to accommodate abrupt changes, it is further assumed that the amplitude/phase functions are approximately piecewise constant (i.e., their time-derivatives are sparse). The proposed method is based on a convex variational (optimization) approach wherein the total variation (TV) of the amplitude functions are regularized subject to a perfect (or approximate) reconstruction constraint. A computationally efficient algorithm is derived based on convex optimization techniques. The proposed technique can be used to perform band-pass filtering that is relatively insensitive to narrow-band amplitude/phase jumps present in data, which normally pose a challenge (due to transients, leakage, etc.). The method is illustrated using both synthetic signals and human EEG data for the purpose of band-pass filtering and the estimation of phase synchrony indexes.


An Introductory Study on Time Series Modeling and Forecasting

Time series modeling and forecasting has fundamental importance to various practical domains. Thus a lot of active research works is going on in this subject during several years. Many important models have been proposed in literature for improving the accuracy and effectiveness of time series forecasting. The aim of this dissertation work is to present a concise description of some popular time series forecasting models used in practice, with their salient features. In this thesis, we have described three important classes of time series models, viz. the stochastic, neural networks and SVM based models, together with their inherent forecasting strengths and weaknesses. We have also discussed about the basic issues related to time series modeling, such as stationarity, parsimony, overfitting, etc. Our discussion about different time series models is supported by giving the experimental forecast results, performed on six real time series datasets. While fitting a model to a dataset, special care is taken to select the most parsimonious one. To evaluate forecast accuracy as well as to compare among different models fitted to a time series, we have used the five performance measures, viz. MSE, MAD, RMSE, MAPE and Theil's U-statistics. For each of the six datasets, we have shown the obtained forecast diagram which graphically depicts the closeness between the original and forecasted observations. To have authenticity as well as clarity in our discussion about time series modeling and forecasting, we have taken the help of various published research works from reputed journals and some standard books.


Arriving on time: estimating travel time distributions on large-scale road networks

Most optimal routing problems focus on minimizing travel time or distance traveled. Oftentimes, a more useful objective is to maximize the probability of on-time arrival, which requires statistical distributions of travel times, rather than just mean values. We propose a method to estimate travel time distributions on large-scale road networks, using probe vehicle data collected from GPS. We present a framework that works with large input of data, and scales linearly with the size of the network. Leveraging the planar topology of the graph, the method computes efficiently the time correlations between neighboring streets. First, raw probe vehicle traces are compressed into pairs of travel times and number of stops for each traversed road segment using a `stop-and-go' algorithm developed for this work. The compressed data is then used as input for training a path travel time model, which couples a Markov model along with a Gaussian Markov random field. Finally, scalable inference algorithms are developed for obtaining path travel time distributions from the composite MM-GMRF model. We illustrate the accuracy and scalability of our model on a 505,000 road link network spanning the San Francisco Bay Area.


Taming the Curse of Dimensionality: Discrete Integration by Hashing and Optimization

Integration is affected by the curse of dimensionality and quickly becomes intractable as the dimensionality of the problem grows. We propose a randomized algorithm that, with high probability, gives a constant-factor approximation of a general discrete integral defined over an exponentially large set. This algorithm relies on solving only a small number of instances of a discrete combinatorial optimization problem subject to randomly generated parity constraints used as a hash function. As an application, we demonstrate that with a small number of MAP queries we can efficiently approximate the partition function of discrete graphical models, which can in turn be used, for instance, for marginal computation or model selection.


Categorizing Bugs with Social Networks: A Case Study on Four Open Source Software Communities

Efficient bug triaging procedures are an important precondition for successful collaborative software engineering projects. Triaging bugs can become a laborious task particularly in open source software (OSS) projects with a large base of comparably inexperienced part-time contributors. In this paper, we propose an efficient and practical method to identify valid bug reports which a) refer to an actual software bug, b) are not duplicates and c) contain enough information to be processed right away. Our classification is based on nine measures to quantify the social embeddedness of bug reporters in the collaboration network. We demonstrate its applicability in a case study, using a comprehensive data set of more than 700,000 bug reports obtained from the Bugzilla installation of four major OSS communities, for a period of more than ten years. For those projects that exhibit the lowest fraction of valid bug reports, we find that the bug reporters' position in the collaboration network is a strong indicator for the quality of bug reports. Based on this finding, we develop an automated classification scheme that can easily be integrated into bug tracking platforms and analyze its performance in the considered OSS communities. A support vector machine (SVM) to identify valid bug reports based on the nine measures yields a precision of up to 90.3% with an associated recall of 38.9%. With this, we significantly improve the results obtained in previous case studies for an automated early identification of bugs that are eventually fixed. Furthermore, our study highlights the potential of using quantitative measures of social organization in collaborative software engineering. It also opens a broad perspective for the integration of social awareness in the design of support infrastructures.


Missing Entries Matrix Approximation and Completion

We describe several algorithms for matrix completion and matrix approximation when only some of its entries are known. The approximation constraint can be any whose approximated solution is known for the full matrix. For low rank approximations, similar algorithms appears recently in the literature under different names. In this work, we introduce new theorems for matrix approximation and show that these algorithms can be extended to handle different constraints such as nuclear norm, spectral norm, orthogonality constraints and more that are different than low rank approximations. As the algorithms can be viewed from an optimization point of view, we discuss their convergence to global solution for the convex case. We also discuss the optimal step size and show that it is fixed in each iteration. In addition, the derived matrix completion flow is robust and does not require any parameters. This matrix completion flow is applicable to different spectral minimizations and can be applied to physics, mathematics and electrical engineering problems such as data reconstruction of images and data coming from PDEs such as Helmholtz equation used for electromagnetic waves.


Learning Gaussian Networks

We describe algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from a combination of user knowledge and statistical data. The algorithms have two components: a scoring metric and a search procedure. The scoring metric takes a network structure, statistical data, and a user's prior knowledge, and returns a score proportional to the posterior probability of the network structure given the data. The search procedure generates networks for evaluation by the scoring metric. Previous work has concentrated on metrics for domains containing only discrete variables, under the assumption that data represents a multinomial sample. In this paper, we extend this work, developing scoring metrics for domains containing all continuous variables or a mixture of discrete and continuous variables, under the assumption that continuous data is sampled from a multivariate normal distribution. Our work extends traditional statistical approaches for identifying vanishing regression coefficients in that we identify two important assumptions, called event equivalence and parameter modularity, that when combined allow the construction of prior distributions for multivariate normal parameters from a single prior Bayesian network specified by a user.


Induction of Selective Bayesian Classifiers

In this paper, we examine previous work on the naive Bayesian classifier and review its limitations, which include a sensitivity to correlated features. We respond to this problem by embedding the naive Bayesian induction scheme within an algorithm that c arries out a greedy search through the space of features. We hypothesize that this approach will improve asymptotic accuracy in domains that involve correlated features without reducing the rate of learning in ones that do not. We report experimental results on six natural domains, including comparisons with decision-tree induction, that support these hypotheses. In closing, we discuss other approaches to extending naive Bayesian classifiers and outline some directions for future research.


Online Learning for Time Series Prediction

In this paper we address the problem of predicting a time series using the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model, under minimal assumptions on the noise terms. Using regret minimization techniques, we develop effective online learning algorithms for the prediction problem, without assuming that the noise terms are Gaussian, identically distributed or even independent. Furthermore, we show that our algorithm's performances asymptotically approaches the performance of the best ARMA model in hindsight.


Online Convex Optimization Against Adversaries with Memory and Application to Statistical Arbitrage

The framework of online learning with memory naturally captures learning problems with temporal constraints, and was previously studied for the experts setting. In this work we extend the notion of learning with memory to the general Online Convex Optimization (OCO) framework, and present two algorithms that attain low regret. The first algorithm applies to Lipschitz continuous loss functions, obtaining optimal regret bounds for both convex and strongly convex losses. The second algorithm attains the optimal regret bounds and applies more broadly to convex losses without requiring Lipschitz continuity, yet is more complicated to implement. We complement our theoretic results with an application to statistical arbitrage in finance: we devise algorithms for constructing mean-reverting portfolios.


Spectrum Bandit Optimization

We consider the problem of allocating radio channels to links in a wireless network. Links interact through interference, modelled as a conflict graph (i.e., two interfering links cannot be simultaneously active on the same channel). We aim at identifying the channel allocation maximizing the total network throughput over a finite time horizon. Should we know the average radio conditions on each channel and on each link, an optimal allocation would be obtained by solving an Integer Linear Program (ILP). When radio conditions are unknown a priori, we look for a sequential channel allocation policy that converges to the optimal allocation while minimizing on the way the throughput loss or {\it regret} due to the need for exploring sub-optimal allocations. We formulate this problem as a generic linear bandit problem, and analyze it first in a stochastic setting where radio conditions are driven by a stationary stochastic process, and then in an adversarial setting where radio conditions can evolve arbitrarily. We provide new algorithms in both settings and derive upper bounds on their regrets.


Scoup-SMT: Scalable Coupled Sparse Matrix-Tensor Factorization

How can we correlate neural activity in the human brain as it responds to words, with behavioral data expressed as answers to questions about these same words? In short, we want to find latent variables, that explain both the brain activity, as well as the behavioral responses. We show that this is an instance of the Coupled Matrix-Tensor Factorization (CMTF) problem. We propose Scoup-SMT, a novel, fast, and parallel algorithm that solves the CMTF problem and produces a sparse latent low-rank subspace of the data. In our experiments, we find that Scoup-SMT is 50-100 times faster than a state-of-the-art algorithm for CMTF, along with a 5 fold increase in sparsity. Moreover, we extend Scoup-SMT to handle missing data without degradation of performance. We apply Scoup-SMT to BrainQ, a dataset consisting of a (nouns, brain voxels, human subjects) tensor and a (nouns, properties) matrix, with coupling along the nouns dimension. Scoup-SMT is able to find meaningful latent variables, as well as to predict brain activity with competitive accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the generality of Scoup-SMT, by applying it on a Facebook dataset (users, friends, wall-postings); there, Scoup-SMT spots spammer-like anomalies.


Learning Theory in the Arithmetic Hierarchy

We consider the arithmetic complexity of index sets of uniformly computably enumerable families learnable under different learning criteria. We determine the exact complexity of these sets for the standard notions of finite learning, learning in the limit, behaviorally correct learning and anomalous learning in the limit. In proving the $\Sigma_5^0$-completeness result for behaviorally correct learning we prove a result of independent interest; if a uniformly computably enumerable family is not learnable, then for any computable learner there is a $\Delta_2^0$ enumeration witnessing failure.


Estimating the Maximum Expected Value: An Analysis of (Nested) Cross Validation and the Maximum Sample Average

We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we show that it is non-trivial to select a good estimator without knowledge about the distributions of the random variables. We investigate and bound the bias and variance of the aforementioned estimators and prove consistency. The variance of cross validation can be significantly reduced, but not without risking a large bias. The bias and variance of different variants of cross validation are shown to be very problem-dependent, and a wrong choice can lead to very inaccurate estimates.


Online Similarity Prediction of Networked Data from Known and Unknown Graphs

We consider online similarity prediction problems over networked data. We begin by relating this task to the more standard class prediction problem, showing that, given an arbitrary algorithm for class prediction, we can construct an algorithm for similarity prediction with "nearly" the same mistake bound, and vice versa. After noticing that this general construction is computationally infeasible, we target our study to {\em feasible} similarity prediction algorithms on networked data. We initially assume that the network structure is {\em known} to the learner. Here we observe that Matrix Winnow \cite{w07} has a near-optimal mistake guarantee, at the price of cubic prediction time per round. This motivates our effort for an efficient implementation of a Perceptron algorithm with a weaker mistake guarantee but with only poly-logarithmic prediction time. Our focus then turns to the challenging case of networks whose structure is initially {\em unknown} to the learner. In this novel setting, where the network structure is only incrementally revealed, we obtain a mistake-bounded algorithm with a quadratic prediction time per round.


Bayesian Consensus Clustering

The task of clustering a set of objects based on multiple sources of data arises in several modern applications. We propose an integrative statistical model that permits a separate clustering of the objects for each data source. These separate clusterings adhere loosely to an overall consensus clustering, and hence they are not independent. We describe a computationally scalable Bayesian framework for simultaneous estimation of both the consensus clustering and the source-specific clusterings. We demonstrate that this flexible approach is more robust than joint clustering of all data sources, and is more powerful than clustering each data source separately. This work is motivated by the integrated analysis of heterogeneous biomedical data, and we present an application to subtype identification of breast cancer tumor samples using publicly available data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Software is available at http://people.duke.edu/~el113/software.html.


Source Separation using Regularized NMF with MMSE Estimates under GMM Priors with Online Learning for The Uncertainties

We propose a new method to enforce priors on the solution of the nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF). The proposed algorithm can be used for denoising or single-channel source separation (SCSS) applications. The NMF solution is guided to follow the Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) estimates under Gaussian mixture prior models (GMM) for the source signal. In SCSS applications, the spectra of the observed mixed signal are decomposed as a weighted linear combination of trained basis vectors for each source using NMF. In this work, the NMF decomposition weight matrices are treated as a distorted image by a distortion operator, which is learned directly from the observed signals. The MMSE estimate of the weights matrix under GMM prior and log-normal distribution for the distortion is then found to improve the NMF decomposition results. The MMSE estimate is embedded within the optimization objective to form a novel regularized NMF cost function. The corresponding update rules for the new objectives are derived in this paper. Experimental results show that, the proposed regularized NMF algorithm improves the source separation performance compared with using NMF without prior or with other prior models.


A Method for Comparing Hedge Funds

The paper presents new machine learning methods: signal composition, which classifies time-series regardless of length, type, and quantity; and self-labeling, a supervised-learning enhancement. The paper describes further the implementation of the methods on a financial search engine system to identify behavioral similarities among time-series representing monthly returns of 11,312 hedge funds operated during approximately one decade (2000 - 2010). The presented approach of cross-category and cross-location classification assists the investor to identify alternative investments.


Bio-Signals-based Situation Comparison Approach to Predict Pain

This paper describes a time-series-based classification approach to identify similarities between bio-medical-based situations. The proposed approach allows classifying collections of time-series representing bio-medical measurements, i.e., situations, regardless of the type, the length and the quantity of the time-series a situation comprised of.


Label-dependent Feature Extraction in Social Networks for Node Classification

A new method of feature extraction in the social network for within-network classification is proposed in the paper. The method provides new features calculated by combination of both: network structure information and class labels assigned to nodes. The influence of various features on classification performance has also been studied. The experiments on real-world data have shown that features created owing to the proposed method can lead to significant improvement of classification accuracy.


Second-Order Non-Stationary Online Learning for Regression

The goal of a learner, in standard online learning, is to have the cumulative loss not much larger compared with the best-performing function from some fixed class. Numerous algorithms were shown to have this gap arbitrarily close to zero, compared with the best function that is chosen off-line. Nevertheless, many real-world applications, such as adaptive filtering, are non-stationary in nature, and the best prediction function may drift over time. We introduce two novel algorithms for online regression, designed to work well in non-stationary environment. Our first algorithm performs adaptive resets to forget the history, while the second is last-step min-max optimal in context of a drift. We analyze both algorithms in the worst-case regret framework and show that they maintain an average loss close to that of the best slowly changing sequence of linear functions, as long as the cumulative drift is sublinear. In addition, in the stationary case, when no drift occurs, our algorithms suffer logarithmic regret, as for previous algorithms. Our bounds improve over the existing ones, and simulations demonstrate the usefulness of these algorithms compared with other state-of-the-art approaches.


Exploiting the Accumulated Evidence for Gene Selection in Microarray Gene Expression Data

Machine Learning methods have of late made significant efforts to solving multidisciplinary problems in the field of cancer classification using microarray gene expression data. Feature subset selection methods can play an important role in the modeling process, since these tasks are characterized by a large number of features and a few observations, making the modeling a non-trivial undertaking. In this particular scenario, it is extremely important to select genes by taking into account the possible interactions with other gene subsets. This paper shows that, by accumulating the evidence in favour (or against) each gene along the search process, the obtained gene subsets may constitute better solutions, either in terms of predictive accuracy or gene size, or in both. The proposed technique is extremely simple and applicable at a negligible overhead in cost.


Inverse Signal Classification for Financial Instruments

The paper presents new machine learning methods: signal composition, which classifies time-series regardless of length, type, and quantity; and self-labeling, a supervised-learning enhancement. The paper describes further the implementation of the methods on a financial search engine system using a collection of 7,881 financial instruments traded during 2011 to identify inverse behavior among the time-series.


One-Class Support Measure Machines for Group Anomaly Detection

We propose one-class support measure machines (OCSMMs) for group anomaly detection which aims at recognizing anomalous aggregate behaviors of data points. The OCSMMs generalize well-known one-class support vector machines (OCSVMs) to a space of probability measures. By formulating the problem as quantile estimation on distributions, we can establish an interesting connection to the OCSVMs and variable kernel density estimators (VKDEs) over the input space on which the distributions are defined, bridging the gap between large-margin methods and kernel density estimators. In particular, we show that various types of VKDEs can be considered as solutions to a class of regularization problems studied in this paper. Experiments on Sloan Digital Sky Survey dataset and High Energy Particle Physics dataset demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework in real-world applications.


Learning Hash Functions Using Column Generation

Fast nearest neighbor searching is becoming an increasingly important tool in solving many large-scale problems. Recently a number of approaches to learning data-dependent hash functions have been developed. In this work, we propose a column generation based method for learning data-dependent hash functions on the basis of proximity comparison information. Given a set of triplets that encode the pairwise proximity comparison information, our method learns hash functions that preserve the relative comparison relationships in the data as well as possible within the large-margin learning framework. The learning procedure is implemented using column generation and hence is named CGHash. At each iteration of the column generation procedure, the best hash function is selected. Unlike most other hashing methods, our method generalizes to new data points naturally; and has a training objective which is convex, thus ensuring that the global optimum can be identified. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method learns compact binary codes and that its retrieval performance compares favorably with state-of-the-art methods when tested on a few benchmark datasets.


Matrix Completion via Max-Norm Constrained Optimization

Matrix completion has been well studied under the uniform sampling model and the trace-norm regularized methods perform well both theoretically and numerically in such a setting. However, the uniform sampling model is unrealistic for a range of applications and the standard trace-norm relaxation can behave very poorly when the underlying sampling scheme is non-uniform. In this paper we propose and analyze a max-norm constrained empirical risk minimization method for noisy matrix completion under a general sampling model. The optimal rate of convergence is established under the Frobenius norm loss in the context of approximately low-rank matrix reconstruction. It is shown that the max-norm constrained method is minimax rate-optimal and yields a unified and robust approximate recovery guarantee, with respect to the sampling distributions. The computational effectiveness of this method is also discussed, based on first-order algorithms for solving convex optimizations involving max-norm regularization.


Inductive Sparse Subspace Clustering

Sparse Subspace Clustering (SSC) has achieved state-of-the-art clustering quality by performing spectral clustering over a $\ell^{1}$-norm based similarity graph. However, SSC is a transductive method which does not handle with the data not used to construct the graph (out-of-sample data). For each new datum, SSC requires solving $n$ optimization problems in O(n) variables for performing the algorithm over the whole data set, where $n$ is the number of data points. Therefore, it is inefficient to apply SSC in fast online clustering and scalable graphing. In this letter, we propose an inductive spectral clustering algorithm, called inductive Sparse Subspace Clustering (iSSC), which makes SSC feasible to cluster out-of-sample data. iSSC adopts the assumption that high-dimensional data actually lie on the low-dimensional manifold such that out-of-sample data could be grouped in the embedding space learned from in-sample data. Experimental results show that iSSC is promising in clustering out-of-sample data.


Sparse PCA through Low-rank Approximations

We introduce a novel algorithm that computes the $k$-sparse principal component of a positive semidefinite matrix $A$. Our algorithm is combinatorial and operates by examining a discrete set of special vectors lying in a low-dimensional eigen-subspace of $A$. We obtain provable approximation guarantees that depend on the spectral decay profile of the matrix: the faster the eigenvalue decay, the better the quality of our approximation. For example, if the eigenvalues of $A$ follow a power-law decay, we obtain a polynomial-time approximation algorithm for any desired accuracy. A key algorithmic component of our scheme is a combinatorial feature elimination step that is provably safe and in practice significantly reduces the running complexity of our algorithm. We implement our algorithm and test it on multiple artificial and real data sets. Due to the feature elimination step, it is possible to perform sparse PCA on data sets consisting of millions of entries in a few minutes. Our experimental evaluation shows that our scheme is nearly optimal while finding very sparse vectors. We compare to the prior state of the art and show that our scheme matches or outperforms previous algorithms in all tested data sets.


Top-down particle filtering for Bayesian decision trees

Decision tree learning is a popular approach for classification and regression in machine learning and statistics, and Bayesian formulations---which introduce a prior distribution over decision trees, and formulate learning as posterior inference given data---have been shown to produce competitive performance. Unlike classic decision tree learning algorithms like ID3, C4.5 and CART, which work in a top-down manner, existing Bayesian algorithms produce an approximation to the posterior distribution by evolving a complete tree (or collection thereof) iteratively via local Monte Carlo modifications to the structure of the tree, e.g., using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that instead works in a top-down manner, mimicking the behavior and speed of classic algorithms. We demonstrate empirically that our approach delivers accuracy comparable to the most popular MCMC method, but operates more than an order of magnitude faster, and thus represents a better computation-accuracy tradeoff.


Bayesian Compressed Regression

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the predictors can be projected to a low dimensional linear subspace with minimal loss of information about the response. As opposed to existing Bayesian dimensionality reduction approaches, the exact posterior distribution conditional on the compressed data is available analytically, speeding up computation by many orders of magnitude while also bypassing robustness issues due to convergence and mixing problems with MCMC. Model averaging is used to reduce sensitivity to the random projection matrix, while accommodating uncertainty in the subspace dimension. Strong theoretical support is provided for the approach by showing near parametric convergence rates for the predictive density in the large p small n asymptotic paradigm. Practical performance relative to competitors is illustrated in simulations and real data applications.


Denoising Deep Neural Networks Based Voice Activity Detection

Recently, the deep-belief-networks (DBN) based voice activity detection (VAD) has been proposed. It is powerful in fusing the advantages of multiple features, and achieves the state-of-the-art performance. However, the deep layers of the DBN-based VAD do not show an apparent superiority to the shallower layers. In this paper, we propose a denoising-deep-neural-network (DDNN) based VAD to address the aforementioned problem. Specifically, we pre-train a deep neural network in a special unsupervised denoising greedy layer-wise mode, and then fine-tune the whole network in a supervised way by the common back-propagation algorithm. In the pre-training phase, we take the noisy speech signals as the visible layer and try to extract a new feature that minimizes the reconstruction cross-entropy loss between the noisy speech signals and its corresponding clean speech signals. Experimental results show that the proposed DDNN-based VAD not only outperforms the DBN-based VAD but also shows an apparent performance improvement of the deep layers over shallower layers.


Personalized News Recommendation with Context Trees

The profusion of online news articles makes it difficult to find interesting articles, a problem that can be assuaged by using a recommender system to bring the most relevant news stories to readers. However, news recommendation is challenging because the most relevant articles are often new content seen by few users. In addition, they are subject to trends and preference changes over time, and in many cases we do not have sufficient information to profile the reader. In this paper, we introduce a class of news recommendation systems based on context trees. They can provide high-quality news recommendation to anonymous visitors based on present browsing behaviour. We show that context-tree recommender systems provide good prediction accuracy and recommendation novelty, and they are sufficiently flexible to capture the unique properties of news articles.


Learning AMP Chain Graphs and some Marginal Models Thereof under Faithfulness: Extended Version

This paper deals with chain graphs under the Andersson-Madigan-Perlman (AMP) interpretation. In particular, we present a constraint based algorithm for learning an AMP chain graph a given probability distribution is faithful to. Moreover, we show that the extension of Meek's conjecture to AMP chain graphs does not hold, which compromises the development of efficient and correct score+search learning algorithms under assumptions weaker than faithfulness. We also introduce a new family of graphical models that consists of undirected and bidirected edges. We name this new family maximal covariance-concentration graphs (MCCGs) because it includes both covariance and concentration graphs as subfamilies. However, every MCCG can be seen as the result of marginalizing out some nodes in an AMP CG. We describe global, local and pairwise Markov properties for MCCGs and prove their equivalence. We characterize when two MCCGs are Markov equivalent, and show that every Markov equivalence class of MCCGs has a distinguished member. We present a constraint based algorithm for learning a MCCG a given probability distribution is faithful to. Finally, we present a graphical criterion for reading dependencies from a MCCG of a probability distribution that satisfies the graphoid properties, weak transitivity and composition. We prove that the criterion is sound and complete in certain sense.


Multivariate Temporal Dictionary Learning for EEG

This article addresses the issue of representing electroencephalographic (EEG) signals in an efficient way. While classical approaches use a fixed Gabor dictionary to analyze EEG signals, this article proposes a data-driven method to obtain an adapted dictionary. To reach an efficient dictionary learning, appropriate spatial and temporal modeling is required. Inter-channels links are taken into account in the spatial multivariate model, and shift-invariance is used for the temporal model. Multivariate learned kernels are informative (a few atoms code plentiful energy) and interpretable (the atoms can have a physiological meaning). Using real EEG data, the proposed method is shown to outperform the classical multichannel matching pursuit used with a Gabor dictionary, as measured by the representative power of the learned dictionary and its spatial flexibility. Moreover, dictionary learning can capture interpretable patterns: this ability is illustrated on real data, learning a P300 evoked potential.


Riemannian metrics for neural networks I: feedforward networks

We describe four algorithms for neural network training, each adapted to different scalability constraints. These algorithms are mathematically principled and invariant under a number of transformations in data and network representation, from which performance is thus independent. These algorithms are obtained from the setting of differential geometry, and are based on either the natural gradient using the Fisher information matrix, or on Hessian methods, scaled down in a specific way to allow for scalability while keeping some of their key mathematical properties.


GURLS: a Least Squares Library for Supervised Learning

We present GURLS, a least squares, modular, easy-to-extend software library for efficient supervised learning. GURLS is targeted to machine learning practitioners, as well as non-specialists. It offers a number state-of-the-art training strategies for medium and large-scale learning, and routines for efficient model selection. The library is particularly well suited for multi-output problems (multi-category/multi-label). GURLS is currently available in two independent implementations: Matlab and C++. It takes advantage of the favorable properties of regularized least squares algorithm to exploit advanced tools in linear algebra. Routines to handle computations with very large matrices by means of memory-mapped storage and distributed task execution are available. The package is distributed under the BSD licence and is available for download at https://github.com/CBCL/GURLS.


An Equivalence between the Lasso and Support Vector Machines

We investigate the relation of two fundamental tools in machine learning and signal processing, that is the support vector machine (SVM) for classification, and the Lasso technique used in regression. We show that the resulting optimization problems are equivalent, in the following sense. Given any instance of an $\ell_2$-loss soft-margin (or hard-margin) SVM, we construct a Lasso instance having the same optimal solutions, and vice versa. As a consequence, many existing optimization algorithms for both SVMs and Lasso can also be applied to the respective other problem instances. Also, the equivalence allows for many known theoretical insights for SVM and Lasso to be translated between the two settings. One such implication gives a simple kernelized version of the Lasso, analogous to the kernels used in the SVM setting. Another consequence is that the sparsity of a Lasso solution is equal to the number of support vectors for the corresponding SVM instance, and that one can use screening rules to prune the set of support vectors. Furthermore, we can relate sublinear time algorithms for the two problems, and give a new such algorithm variant for the Lasso. We also study the regularization paths for both methods.


Classification with Asymmetric Label Noise: Consistency and Maximal Denoising

In many real-world classification problems, the labels of training examples are randomly corrupted. Most previous theoretical work on classification with label noise assumes that the two classes are separable, that the label noise is independent of the true class label, or that the noise proportions for each class are known. In this work, we give conditions that are necessary and sufficient for the true class-conditional distributions to be identifiable. These conditions are weaker than those analyzed previously, and allow for the classes to be nonseparable and the noise levels to be asymmetric and unknown. The conditions essentially state that a majority of the observed labels are correct and that the true class-conditional distributions are "mutually irreducible," a concept we introduce that limits the similarity of the two distributions. For any label noise problem, there is a unique pair of true class-conditional distributions satisfying the proposed conditions, and we argue that this pair corresponds in a certain sense to maximal denoising of the observed distributions. Our results are facilitated by a connection to "mixture proportion estimation," which is the problem of estimating the maximal proportion of one distribution that is present in another. We establish a novel rate of convergence result for mixture proportion estimation, and apply this to obtain consistency of a discrimination rule based on surrogate loss minimization. Experimental results on benchmark data and a nuclear particle classification problem demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.


Discovery of factors in matrices with grades

We present an approach to decomposition and factor analysis of matrices with ordinal data. The matrix entries are grades to which objects represented by rows satisfy attributes represented by columns, e.g. grades to which an image is red, a product has a given feature, or a person performs well in a test. We assume that the grades form a bounded scale equipped with certain aggregation operators and conforms to the structure of a complete residuated lattice. We present a greedy approximation algorithm for the problem of decomposition of such matrix in a product of two matrices with grades under the restriction that the number of factors be small. Our algorithm is based on a geometric insight provided by a theorem identifying particular rectangular-shaped submatrices as optimal factors for the decompositions. These factors correspond to formal concepts of the input data and allow an easy interpretation of the decomposition. We present illustrative examples and experimental evaluation.


Convex and Scalable Weakly Labeled SVMs

In this paper, we study the problem of learning from weakly labeled data, where labels of the training examples are incomplete. This includes, for example, (i) semi-supervised learning where labels are partially known; (ii) multi-instance learning where labels are implicitly known; and (iii) clustering where labels are completely unknown. Unlike supervised learning, learning with weak labels involves a difficult Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) problem. Therefore, it can suffer from poor scalability and may also get stuck in local minimum. In this paper, we focus on SVMs and propose the WellSVM via a novel label generation strategy. This leads to a convex relaxation of the original MIP, which is at least as tight as existing convex Semi-Definite Programming (SDP) relaxations. Moreover, the WellSVM can be solved via a sequence of SVM subproblems that are much more scalable than previous convex SDP relaxations. Experiments on three weakly labeled learning tasks, namely, (i) semi-supervised learning; (ii) multi-instance learning for locating regions of interest in content-based information retrieval; and (iii) clustering, clearly demonstrate improved performance, and WellSVM is also readily applicable on large data sets.


Large-Margin Metric Learning for Partitioning Problems

In this paper, we consider unsupervised partitioning problems, such as clustering, image segmentation, video segmentation and other change-point detection problems. We focus on partitioning problems based explicitly or implicitly on the minimization of Euclidean distortions, which include mean-based change-point detection, K-means, spectral clustering and normalized cuts. Our main goal is to learn a Mahalanobis metric for these unsupervised problems, leading to feature weighting and/or selection. This is done in a supervised way by assuming the availability of several potentially partially labelled datasets that share the same metric. We cast the metric learning problem as a large-margin structured prediction problem, with proper definition of regularizers and losses, leading to a convex optimization problem which can be solved efficiently with iterative techniques. We provide experiments where we show how learning the metric may significantly improve the partitioning performance in synthetic examples, bioinformatics, video segmentation and image segmentation problems.


Multi-relational Learning Using Weighted Tensor Decomposition with Modular Loss

We propose a modular framework for multi-relational learning via tensor decomposition. In our learning setting, the training data contains multiple types of relationships among a set of objects, which we represent by a sparse three-mode tensor. The goal is to predict the values of the missing entries. To do so, we model each relationship as a function of a linear combination of latent factors. We learn this latent representation by computing a low-rank tensor decomposition, using quasi-Newton optimization of a weighted objective function. Sparsity in the observed data is captured by the weighted objective, leading to improved accuracy when training data is limited. Exploiting sparsity also improves efficiency, potentially up to an order of magnitude over unweighted approaches. In addition, our framework accommodates arbitrary combinations of smooth, task-specific loss functions, making it better suited for learning different types of relations. For the typical cases of real-valued functions and binary relations, we propose several loss functions and derive the associated parameter gradients. We evaluate our method on synthetic and real data, showing significant improvements in both accuracy and scalability over related factorization techniques.


Revisiting the Nystrom Method for Improved Large-Scale Machine Learning

We reconsider randomized algorithms for the low-rank approximation of symmetric positive semi-definite (SPSD) matrices such as Laplacian and kernel matrices that arise in data analysis and machine learning applications. Our main results consist of an empirical evaluation of the performance quality and running time of sampling and projection methods on a diverse suite of SPSD matrices. Our results highlight complementary aspects of sampling versus projection methods; they characterize the effects of common data preprocessing steps on the performance of these algorithms; and they point to important differences between uniform sampling and nonuniform sampling methods based on leverage scores. In addition, our empirical results illustrate that existing theory is so weak that it does not provide even a qualitative guide to practice. Thus, we complement our empirical results with a suite of worst-case theoretical bounds for both random sampling and random projection methods. These bounds are qualitatively superior to existing bounds---e.g. improved additive-error bounds for spectral and Frobenius norm error and relative-error bounds for trace norm error---and they point to future directions to make these algorithms useful in even larger-scale machine learning applications.


Mining Representative Unsubstituted Graph Patterns Using Prior Similarity Matrix

One of the most powerful techniques to study protein structures is to look for recurrent fragments (also called substructures or spatial motifs), then use them as patterns to characterize the proteins under study. An emergent trend consists in parsing proteins three-dimensional (3D) structures into graphs of amino acids. Hence, the search of recurrent spatial motifs is formulated as a process of frequent subgraph discovery where each subgraph represents a spatial motif. In this scope, several efficient approaches for frequent subgraph discovery have been proposed in the literature. However, the set of discovered frequent subgraphs is too large to be efficiently analyzed and explored in any further process. In this paper, we propose a novel pattern selection approach that shrinks the large number of discovered frequent subgraphs by selecting the representative ones. Existing pattern selection approaches do not exploit the domain knowledge. Yet, in our approach we incorporate the evolutionary information of amino acids defined in the substitution matrices in order to select the representative subgraphs. We show the effectiveness of our approach on a number of real datasets. The results issued from our experiments show that our approach is able to considerably decrease the number of motifs while enhancing their interestingness.


Transfer Learning for Voice Activity Detection: A Denoising Deep Neural Network Perspective

Mismatching problem between the source and target noisy corpora severely hinder the practical use of the machine-learning-based voice activity detection (VAD). In this paper, we try to address this problem in the transfer learning prospective. Transfer learning tries to find a common learning machine or a common feature subspace that is shared by both the source corpus and the target corpus. The denoising deep neural network is used as the learning machine. Three transfer techniques, which aim to learn common feature representations, are used for analysis. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the transfer learning schemes on the mismatch problem.


Convex Discriminative Multitask Clustering

Multitask clustering tries to improve the clustering performance of multiple tasks simultaneously by taking their relationship into account. Most existing multitask clustering algorithms fall into the type of generative clustering, and none are formulated as convex optimization problems. In this paper, we propose two convex Discriminative Multitask Clustering (DMTC) algorithms to address the problems. Specifically, we first propose a Bayesian DMTC framework. Then, we propose two convex DMTC objectives within the framework. The first one, which can be seen as a technical combination of the convex multitask feature learning and the convex Multiclass Maximum Margin Clustering (M3C), aims to learn a shared feature representation. The second one, which can be seen as a combination of the convex multitask relationship learning and M3C, aims to learn the task relationship. The two objectives are solved in a uniform procedure by the efficient cutting-plane algorithm. Experimental results on a toy problem and two benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.


Heuristic Ternary Error-Correcting Output Codes Via Weight Optimization and Layered Clustering-Based Approach

One important classifier ensemble for multiclass classification problems is Error-Correcting Output Codes (ECOCs). It bridges multiclass problems and binary-class classifiers by decomposing multiclass problems to a serial binary-class problems. In this paper, we present a heuristic ternary code, named Weight Optimization and Layered Clustering-based ECOC (WOLC-ECOC). It starts with an arbitrary valid ECOC and iterates the following two steps until the training risk converges. The first step, named Layered Clustering based ECOC (LC-ECOC), constructs multiple strong classifiers on the most confusing binary-class problem. The second step adds the new classifiers to ECOC by a novel Optimized Weighted (OW) decoding algorithm, where the optimization problem of the decoding is solved by the cutting plane algorithm. Technically, LC-ECOC makes the heuristic training process not blocked by some difficult binary-class problem. OW decoding guarantees the non-increase of the training risk for ensuring a small code length. Results on 14 UCI datasets and a music genre classification problem demonstrate the effectiveness of WOLC-ECOC.


Complex Support Vector Machines for Regression and Quaternary Classification

The paper presents a new framework for complex Support Vector Regression as well as Support Vector Machines for quaternary classification. The method exploits the notion of widely linear estimation to model the input-out relation for complex-valued data and considers two cases: a) the complex data are split into their real and imaginary parts and a typical real kernel is employed to map the complex data to a complexified feature space and b) a pure complex kernel is used to directly map the data to the induced complex feature space. The recently developed Wirtinger's calculus on complex reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) is employed in order to compute the Lagrangian and derive the dual optimization problem. As one of our major results, we prove that any complex SVM/SVR task is equivalent with solving two real SVM/SVR tasks exploiting a specific real kernel which is generated by the chosen complex kernel. In particular, the case of pure complex kernels leads to the generation of new kernels, which have not been considered before. In the classification case, the proposed framework inherently splits the complex space into four parts. This leads naturally in solving the four class-task (quaternary classification), instead of the typical two classes of the real SVM. In turn, this rationale can be used in a multiclass problem as a split-class scenario based on four classes, as opposed to the one-versus-all method; this can lead to significant computational savings. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for regression and classification tasks that involve complex data.


Clustering on Multi-Layer Graphs via Subspace Analysis on Grassmann Manifolds

Relationships between entities in datasets are often of multiple nature, like geographical distance, social relationships, or common interests among people in a social network, for example. This information can naturally be modeled by a set of weighted and undirected graphs that form a global multilayer graph, where the common vertex set represents the entities and the edges on different layers capture the similarities of the entities in term of the different modalities. In this paper, we address the problem of analyzing multi-layer graphs and propose methods for clustering the vertices by efficiently merging the information provided by the multiple modalities. To this end, we propose to combine the characteristics of individual graph layers using tools from subspace analysis on a Grassmann manifold. The resulting combination can then be viewed as a low dimensional representation of the original data which preserves the most important information from diverse relationships between entities. We use this information in new clustering methods and test our algorithm on several synthetic and real world datasets where we demonstrate superior or competitive performances compared to baseline and state-of-the-art techniques. Our generic framework further extends to numerous analysis and learning problems that involve different types of information on graphs.


Penalty-regulated dynamics and robust learning procedures in games

Starting from a heuristic learning scheme for N-person games, we derive a new class of continuous-time learning dynamics consisting of a replicator-like drift adjusted by a penalty term that renders the boundary of the game's strategy space repelling. These penalty-regulated dynamics are equivalent to players keeping an exponentially discounted aggregate of their on-going payoffs and then using a smooth best response to pick an action based on these performance scores. Owing to this inherent duality, the proposed dynamics satisfy a variant of the folk theorem of evolutionary game theory and they converge to (arbitrarily precise) approximations of Nash equilibria in potential games. Motivated by applications to traffic engineering, we exploit this duality further to design a discrete-time, payoff-based learning algorithm which retains these convergence properties and only requires players to observe their in-game payoffs: moreover, the algorithm remains robust in the presence of stochastic perturbations and observation errors, and it does not require any synchronization between players.


Mini-Batch Primal and Dual Methods for SVMs

We address the issue of using mini-batches in stochastic optimization of SVMs. We show that the same quantity, the spectral norm of the data, controls the parallelization speedup obtained for both primal stochastic subgradient descent (SGD) and stochastic dual coordinate ascent (SCDA) methods and use it to derive novel variants of mini-batched SDCA. Our guarantees for both methods are expressed in terms of the original nonsmooth primal problem based on the hinge-loss.


State estimation under non-Gaussian Levy noise: A modified Kalman filtering method

The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian L\'evy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian L\'evy noise may have infinite variance. A modified Kalman filter for linear systems with non-Gaussian L\'evy noise is devised. It works effectively with reasonable computational cost. Simulation results are presented to illustrate this non-Gaussian filtering method.


Linear NDCG and Pair-wise Loss

Linear NDCG is used for measuring the performance of the Web content quality assessment in ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge 2010. In this paper, we will prove that the DCG error equals a new pair-wise loss.


Monte-Carlo utility estimates for Bayesian reinforcement learning

This paper introduces a set of algorithms for Monte-Carlo Bayesian reinforcement learning. Firstly, Monte-Carlo estimation of upper bounds on the Bayes-optimal value function is employed to construct an optimistic policy. Secondly, gradient-based algorithms for approximate upper and lower bounds are introduced. Finally, we introduce a new class of gradient algorithms for Bayesian Bellman error minimisation. We theoretically show that the gradient methods are sound. Experimentally, we demonstrate the superiority of the upper bound method in terms of reward obtained. However, we also show that the Bayesian Bellman error method is a close second, despite its significant computational simplicity.


Revealing Cluster Structure of Graph by Path Following Replicator Dynamic

In this paper, we propose a path following replicator dynamic, and investigate its potentials in uncovering the underlying cluster structure of a graph. The proposed dynamic is a generalization of the discrete replicator dynamic. The replicator dynamic has been successfully used to extract dense clusters of graphs; however, it is often sensitive to the degree distribution of a graph, and usually biased by vertices with large degrees, thus may fail to detect the densest cluster. To overcome this problem, we introduce a dynamic parameter, called path parameter, into the evolution process. The path parameter can be interpreted as the maximal possible probability of a current cluster containing a vertex, and it monotonically increases as evolution process proceeds. By limiting the maximal probability, the phenomenon of some vertices dominating the early stage of evolution process is suppressed, thus making evolution process more robust. To solve the optimization problem with a fixed path parameter, we propose an efficient fixed point algorithm. The time complexity of the path following replicator dynamic is only linear in the number of edges of a graph, thus it can analyze graphs with millions of vertices and tens of millions of edges on a common PC in a few minutes. Besides, it can be naturally generalized to hypergraph and graph with edges of different orders. We apply it to four important problems: maximum clique problem, densest k-subgraph problem, structure fitting, and discovery of high-density regions. The extensive experimental results clearly demonstrate its advantages, in terms of robustness, scalability and flexility.


Hybrid Q-Learning Applied to Ubiquitous recommender system

Ubiquitous information access becomes more and more important nowadays and research is aimed at making it adapted to users. Our work consists in applying machine learning techniques in order to bring a solution to some of the problems concerning the acceptance of the system by users. To achieve this, we propose a fundamental shift in terms of how we model the learning of recommender system: inspired by models of human reasoning developed in robotic, we combine reinforcement learning and case-base reasoning to define a recommendation process that uses these two approaches for generating recommendations on different context dimensions (social, temporal, geographic). We describe an implementation of the recommender system based on this framework. We also present preliminary results from experiments with the system and show how our approach increases the recommendation quality.


Spectral Clustering with Epidemic Diffusion

Spectral clustering is widely used to partition graphs into distinct modules or communities. Existing methods for spectral clustering use the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian, an operator that is closely associated with random walks on graphs. We propose a new spectral partitioning method that exploits the properties of epidemic diffusion. An epidemic is a dynamic process that, unlike the random walk, simultaneously transitions to all the neighbors of a given node. We show that the replicator, an operator describing epidemic diffusion, is equivalent to the symmetric normalized Laplacian of a reweighted graph with edges reweighted by the eigenvector centralities of their incident nodes. Thus, more weight is given to edges connecting more central nodes. We describe a method that partitions the nodes based on the componentwise ratio of the replicator's second eigenvector to the first, and compare its performance to traditional spectral clustering techniques on synthetic graphs with known community structure. We demonstrate that the replicator gives preference to dense, clique-like structures, enabling it to more effectively discover communities that may be obscured by dense intercommunity linking.


Machine Learning for Bioclimatic Modelling

Many machine learning (ML) approaches are widely used to generate bioclimatic models for prediction of geographic range of organism as a function of climate. Applications such as prediction of range shift in organism, range of invasive species influenced by climate change are important parameters in understanding the impact of climate change. However, success of machine learning-based approaches depends on a number of factors. While it can be safely said that no particular ML technique can be effective in all applications and success of a technique is predominantly dependent on the application or the type of the problem, it is useful to understand their behavior to ensure informed choice of techniques. This paper presents a comprehensive review of machine learning-based bioclimatic model generation and analyses the factors influencing success of such models. Considering the wide use of statistical techniques, in our discussion we also include conventional statistical techniques used in bioclimatic modelling.


A Cooperative Q-learning Approach for Real-time Power Allocation in Femtocell Networks

In this paper, we address the problem of distributed interference management of cognitive femtocells that share the same frequency range with macrocells (primary user) using distributed multi-agent Q-learning. We formulate and solve three problems representing three different Q-learning algorithms: namely, centralized, distributed and partially distributed power control using Q-learning (CPC-Q, DPC-Q and PDPC-Q). CPCQ, although not of practical interest, characterizes the global optimum. Each of DPC-Q and PDPC-Q works in two different learning paradigms: Independent (IL) and Cooperative (CL). The former is considered the simplest form for applying Qlearning in multi-agent scenarios, where all the femtocells learn independently. The latter is the proposed scheme in which femtocells share partial information during the learning process in order to strike a balance between practical relevance and performance. In terms of performance, the simulation results showed that the CL paradigm outperforms the IL paradigm and achieves an aggregate femtocells capacity that is very close to the optimal one. For the practical relevance issue, we evaluate the robustness and scalability of DPC-Q, in real time, by deploying new femtocells in the system during the learning process, where we showed that DPC-Q in the CL paradigm is scalable to large number of femtocells and more robust to the network dynamics compared to the IL paradigm


Gaussian Processes for Nonlinear Signal Processing

Gaussian processes (GPs) are versatile tools that have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear estimation problems in machine learning, but that are rarely used in signal processing. In this tutorial, we present GPs for regression as a natural nonlinear extension to optimal Wiener filtering. After establishing their basic formulation, we discuss several important aspects and extensions, including recursive and adaptive algorithms for dealing with non-stationarity, low-complexity solutions, non-Gaussian noise models and classification scenarios. Furthermore, we provide a selection of relevant applications to wireless digital communications.


Online Learning in Markov Decision Processes with Adversarially Chosen Transition Probability Distributions

We study the problem of learning Markov decision processes with finite state and action spaces when the transition probability distributions and loss functions are chosen adversarially and are allowed to change with time. We introduce an algorithm whose regret with respect to any policy in a comparison class grows as the square root of the number of rounds of the game, provided the transition probabilities satisfy a uniform mixing condition. Our approach is efficient as long as the comparison class is polynomial and we can compute expectations over sample paths for each policy. Designing an efficient algorithm with small regret for the general case remains an open problem.


A Greedy Approximation of Bayesian Reinforcement Learning with Probably Optimistic Transition Model

Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (RL) is capable of not only incorporating domain knowledge, but also solving the exploration-exploitation dilemma in a natural way. As Bayesian RL is intractable except for special cases, previous work has proposed several approximation methods. However, these methods are usually too sensitive to parameter values, and finding an acceptable parameter setting is practically impossible in many applications. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that greedily approximates Bayesian RL to achieve robustness in parameter space. We show that for a desired learning behavior, our proposed algorithm has a polynomial sample complexity that is lower than those of existing algorithms. We also demonstrate that the proposed algorithm naturally outperforms other existing algorithms when the prior distributions are not significantly misleading. On the other hand, the proposed algorithm cannot handle greatly misspecified priors as well as the other algorithms can. This is a natural consequence of the fact that the proposed algorithm is greedier than the other algorithms. Accordingly, we discuss a way to select an appropriate algorithm for different tasks based on the algorithms' greediness. We also introduce a new way of simplifying Bayesian planning, based on which future work would be able to derive new algorithms.