Travel Time Estimation Using Floating Car Data

This report explores the use of machine learning techniques to accurately predict travel times in city streets and highways using floating car data (location information of user vehicles on a road network). The aim of this report is twofold, first we present a general architecture of solving this problem, then present and evaluate few techniques on real floating car data gathered over a month on a 5 Km highway in New Delhi.


How I won the "Chess Ratings - Elo vs the Rest of the World" Competition

This article discusses in detail the rating system that won the kaggle competition "Chess Ratings: Elo vs the rest of the world". The competition provided a historical dataset of outcomes for chess games, and aimed to discover whether novel approaches can predict the outcomes of future games, more accurately than the well-known Elo rating system. The winning rating system, called Elo++ in the rest of the article, builds upon the Elo rating system. Like Elo, Elo++ uses a single rating per player and predicts the outcome of a game, by using a logistic curve over the difference in ratings of the players. The major component of Elo++ is a regularization technique that avoids overfitting these ratings. The dataset of chess games and outcomes is relatively small and one has to be careful not to draw "too many conclusions" out of the limited data. Many approaches tested in the competition showed signs of such an overfitting. The leader-board was dominated by attempts that did a very good job on a small test dataset, but couldn't generalize well on the private hold-out dataset. The Elo++ regularization takes into account the number of games per player, the recency of these games and the ratings of the opponents. Finally, Elo++ employs a stochastic gradient descent scheme for training the ratings, and uses only two global parameters (white's advantage and regularization constant) that are optimized using cross-validation.


Calibration Using Matrix Completion with Application to Ultrasound Tomography

We study the calibration process in circular ultrasound tomography devices where the sensor positions deviate from the circumference of a perfect circle. This problem arises in a variety of applications in signal processing ranging from breast imaging to sensor network localization. We introduce a novel method of calibration/localization based on the time-of-flight (ToF) measurements between sensors when the enclosed medium is homogeneous. In the presence of all the pairwise ToFs, one can easily estimate the sensor positions using multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) method. In practice however, due to the transitional behaviour of the sensors and the beam form of the transducers, the ToF measurements for close-by sensors are unavailable. Further, random malfunctioning of the sensors leads to random missing ToF measurements. On top of the missing entries, in practice an unknown time delay is also added to the measurements. In this work, we incorporate the fact that a matrix defined from all the ToF measurements is of rank at most four. In order to estimate the missing ToFs, we apply a state-of-the-art low-rank matrix completion algorithm, OPTSPACE . To find the correct positions of the sensors (our ultimate goal) we then apply MDS. We show analytic bounds on the overall error of the whole process in the presence of noise and hence deduce its robustness. Finally, we confirm the functionality of our method in practice by simulations mimicking the measurements of a circular ultrasound tomography device.


Conditional information and definition of neighbor in categorical random fields

We show that the definition of neighbor in Markov random fields as defined by Besag (1974) when the joint distribution of the sites is not positive is not well-defined. In a random field with finite number of sites we study the conditions under which giving the value at extra sites will change the belief of an agent about one site. Also the conditions under which the information from some sites is equivalent to giving the value at all other sites is studied. These concepts provide an alternative to the concept of neighbor for general case where the positivity condition of the joint does not hold.


The Local Optimality of Reinforcement Learning by Value Gradients, and its Relationship to Policy Gradient Learning

In this theoretical paper we are concerned with the problem of learning a value function by a smooth general function approximator, to solve a deterministic episodic control problem in a large continuous state space. It is shown that learning the gradient of the value-function at every point along a trajectory generated by a greedy policy is a sufficient condition for the trajectory to be locally extremal, and often locally optimal, and we argue that this brings greater efficiency to value-function learning. This contrasts to traditional value-function learning in which the value-function must be learnt over the whole of state space. It is also proven that policy-gradient learning applied to a greedy policy on a value-function produces a weight update equivalent to a value-gradient weight update, which provides a surprising connection between these two alternative paradigms of reinforcement learning, and a convergence proof for control problems with a value function represented by a general smooth function approximator.


Sparsity regret bounds for individual sequences in online linear regression

We consider the problem of online linear regression on arbitrary deterministic sequences when the ambient dimension d can be much larger than the number of time rounds T. We introduce the notion of sparsity regret bound, which is a deterministic online counterpart of recent risk bounds derived in the stochastic setting under a sparsity scenario. We prove such regret bounds for an online-learning algorithm called SeqSEW and based on exponential weighting and data-driven truncation. In a second part we apply a parameter-free version of this algorithm to the stochastic setting (regression model with random design). This yields risk bounds of the same flavor as in Dalalyan and Tsybakov (2011) but which solve two questions left open therein. In particular our risk bounds are adaptive (up to a logarithmic factor) to the unknown variance of the noise if the latter is Gaussian. We also address the regression model with fixed design.


Review and Evaluation of Feature Selection Algorithms in Synthetic Problems

The main purpose of Feature Subset Selection is to find a reduced subset of attributes from a data set described by a feature set. The task of a feature selection algorithm (FSA) is to provide with a computational solution motivated by a certain definition of relevance or by a reliable evaluation measure. In this paper several fundamental algorithms are studied to assess their performance in a controlled experimental scenario. A measure to evaluate FSAs is devised that computes the degree of matching between the output given by a FSA and the known optimal solutions. An extensive experimental study on synthetic problems is carried out to assess the behaviour of the algorithms in terms of solution accuracy and size as a function of the relevance, irrelevance, redundancy and size of the data samples. The controlled experimental conditions facilitate the derivation of better-supported and meaningful conclusions.


Support vector machines/relevance vector machine for remote sensing classification: A review

Kernel-based machine learning algorithms are based on mapping data from the original input feature space to a kernel feature space of higher dimensionality to solve a linear problem in that space. Over the last decade, kernel based classification and regression approaches such as support vector machines have widely been used in remote sensing as well as in various civil engineering applications. In spite of their better performance with different datasets, support vector machines still suffer from shortcomings such as visualization/interpretation of model, choice of kernel and kernel specific parameter as well as the regularization parameter. Relevance vector machines are another kernel based approach being explored for classification and regression with in last few years. The advantages of the relevance vector machines over the support vector machines is the availability of probabilistic predictions, using arbitrary kernel functions and not requiring setting of the regularization parameter. This paper presents a state-of-the-art review of SVM and RVM in remote sensing and provides some details of their use in other civil engineering application also.


Classification under Data Contamination with Application to Remote Sensing Image Mis-registration

This work is motivated by the problem of image mis-registration in remote sensing and we are interested in determining the resulting loss in the accuracy of pattern classification. A statistical formulation is given where we propose to use data contamination to model and understand the phenomenon of image mis-registration. This model is widely applicable to many other types of errors as well, for example, measurement errors and gross errors etc. The impact of data contamination on classification is studied under a statistical learning theoretical framework. A closed-form asymptotic bound is established for the resulting loss in classification accuracy, which is less than $\epsilon/(1-\epsilon)$ for data contamination of an amount of $\epsilon$. Our bound is sharper than similar bounds in the domain adaptation literature and, unlike such bounds, it applies to classifiers with an infinite Vapnik-Chervonekis (VC) dimension. Extensive simulations have been conducted on both synthetic and real datasets under various types of data contamination, including label flipping, feature swapping and the replacement of feature values with data generated from a random source such as a Gaussian or Cauchy distribution. Our simulation results show that the bound we derive is fairly tight.


Dyna-H: a heuristic planning reinforcement learning algorithm applied to role-playing-game strategy decision systems

In a Role-Playing Game, finding optimal trajectories is one of the most important tasks. In fact, the strategy decision system becomes a key component of a game engine. Determining the way in which decisions are taken (online, batch or simulated) and the consumed resources in decision making (e.g. execution time, memory) will influence, in mayor degree, the game performance. When classical search algorithms such as A* can be used, they are the very first option. Nevertheless, such methods rely on precise and complete models of the search space, and there are many interesting scenarios where their application is not possible. Then, model free methods for sequential decision making under uncertainty are the best choice. In this paper, we propose a heuristic planning strategy to incorporate the ability of heuristic-search in path-finding into a Dyna agent. The proposed Dyna-H algorithm, as A* does, selects branches more likely to produce outcomes than other branches. Besides, it has the advantages of being a model-free online reinforcement learning algorithm. The proposal was evaluated against the one-step Q-Learning and Dyna-Q algorithms obtaining excellent experimental results: Dyna-H significantly overcomes both methods in all experiments. We suggest also, a functional analogy between the proposed sampling from worst trajectories heuristic and the role of dreams (e.g. nightmares) in human behavior.


The Role of Normalization in the Belief Propagation Algorithm

An important part of problems in statistical physics and computer science can be expressed as the computation of marginal probabilities over a Markov Random Field. The belief propagation algorithm, which is an exact procedure to compute these marginals when the underlying graph is a tree, has gained its popularity as an efficient way to approximate them in the more general case. In this paper, we focus on an aspect of the algorithm that did not get that much attention in the literature, which is the effect of the normalization of the messages. We show in particular that, for a large class of normalization strategies, it is possible to focus only on belief convergence. Following this, we express the necessary and sufficient conditions for local stability of a fixed point in terms of the graph structure and the beliefs values at the fixed point. We also explicit some connexion between the normalization constants and the underlying Bethe Free Energy.


Statistical Mechanics of Semi-Supervised Clustering in Sparse Graphs

We theoretically study semi-supervised clustering in sparse graphs in the presence of pairwise constraints on the cluster assignments of nodes. We focus on bi-cluster graphs, and study the impact of semi-supervision for varying constraint density and overlap between the clusters. Recent results for unsupervised clustering in sparse graphs indicate that there is a critical ratio of within-cluster and between-cluster connectivities below which clusters cannot be recovered with better than random accuracy. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of pairwise constraints on the clustering accuracy. Our results suggests that the addition of constraints does not provide automatic improvement over the unsupervised case. When the density of the constraints is sufficiently small, their only impact is to shift the detection threshold while preserving the criticality. Conversely, if the density of (hard) constraints is above the percolation threshold, the criticality is suppressed and the detection threshold disappears.


Reproducing Kernel Banach Spaces with the l1 Norm

Targeting at sparse learning, we construct Banach spaces B of functions on an input space X with the properties that (1) B possesses an l1 norm in the sense that it is isometrically isomorphic to the Banach space of integrable functions on X with respect to the counting measure; (2) point evaluations are continuous linear functionals on B and are representable through a bilinear form with a kernel function; (3) regularized learning schemes on B satisfy the linear representer theorem. Examples of kernel functions admissible for the construction of such spaces are given.


Reproducing Kernel Banach Spaces with the l1 Norm II: Error Analysis for Regularized Least Square Regression

A typical approach in estimating the learning rate of a regularized learning scheme is to bound the approximation error by the sum of the sampling error, the hypothesis error and the regularization error. Using a reproducing kernel space that satisfies the linear representer theorem brings the advantage of discarding the hypothesis error from the sum automatically. Following this direction, we illustrate how reproducing kernel Banach spaces with the l1 norm can be applied to improve the learning rate estimate of l1-regularization in machine learning.


Close the Gaps: A Learning-while-Doing Algorithm for a Class of Single-Product Revenue Management Problems

We consider a retailer selling a single product with limited on-hand inventory over a finite selling season. Customer demand arrives according to a Poisson process, the rate of which is influenced by a single action taken by the retailer (such as price adjustment, sales commission, advertisement intensity, etc.). The relationship between the action and the demand rate is not known in advance. However, the retailer is able to learn the optimal action "on the fly" as she maximizes her total expected revenue based on the observed demand reactions. Using the pricing problem as an example, we propose a dynamic "learning-while-doing" algorithm that only involves function value estimation to achieve a near-optimal performance. Our algorithm employs a series of shrinking price intervals and iteratively tests prices within that interval using a set of carefully chosen parameters. We prove that the convergence rate of our algorithm is among the fastest of all possible algorithms in terms of asymptotic "regret" (the relative loss comparing to the full information optimal solution). Our result closes the performance gaps between parametric and non-parametric learning and between a post-price mechanism and a customer-bidding mechanism. Important managerial insight from this research is that the values of information on both the parametric form of the demand function as well as each customer's exact reservation price are less important than prior literature suggests. Our results also suggest that firms would be better off to perform dynamic learning and action concurrently rather than sequentially.


Online Adaptive Decision Fusion Framework Based on Entropic Projections onto Convex Sets with Application to Wildfire Detection in Video

In this paper, an Entropy functional based online Adaptive Decision Fusion (EADF) framework is developed for image analysis and computer vision applications. In this framework, it is assumed that the compound algorithm consists of several sub-algorithms each of which yielding its own decision as a real number centered around zero, representing the confidence level of that particular sub-algorithm. Decision values are linearly combined with weights which are updated online according to an active fusion method based on performing entropic projections onto convex sets describing sub-algorithms. It is assumed that there is an oracle, who is usually a human operator, providing feedback to the decision fusion method. A video based wildfire detection system is developed to evaluate the performance of the algorithm in handling the problems where data arrives sequentially. In this case, the oracle is the security guard of the forest lookout tower verifying the decision of the combined algorithm. Simulation results are presented. The EADF framework is also tested with a standard dataset.


A Primal-Dual Convergence Analysis of Boosting

Boosting combines weak learners into a predictor with low empirical risk. Its dual constructs a high entropy distribution upon which weak learners and training labels are uncorrelated. This manuscript studies this primal-dual relationship under a broad family of losses, including the exponential loss of AdaBoost and the logistic loss, revealing: - Weak learnability aids the whole loss family: for any {\epsilon}>0, O(ln(1/{\epsilon})) iterations suffice to produce a predictor with empirical risk {\epsilon}-close to the infimum; - The circumstances granting the existence of an empirical risk minimizer may be characterized in terms of the primal and dual problems, yielding a new proof of the known rate O(ln(1/{\epsilon})); - Arbitrary instances may be decomposed into the above two, granting rate O(1/{\epsilon}), with a matching lower bound provided for the logistic loss.


Using Feature Weights to Improve Performance of Neural Networks

Different features have different relevance to a particular learning problem. Some features are less relevant; while some very important. Instead of selecting the most relevant features using feature selection, an algorithm can be given this knowledge of feature importance based on expert opinion or prior learning. Learning can be faster and more accurate if learners take feature importance into account. Correlation aided Neural Networks (CANN) is presented which is such an algorithm. CANN treats feature importance as the correlation coefficient between the target attribute and the features. CANN modifies normal feed-forward Neural Network to fit both correlation values and training data. Empirical evaluation shows that CANN is faster and more accurate than applying the two step approach of feature selection and then using normal learning algorithms.


A Generalized Method for Integrating Rule-based Knowledge into Inductive Methods Through Virtual Sample Creation

Hybrid learning methods use theoretical knowledge of a domain and a set of classified examples to develop a method for classification. Methods that use domain knowledge have been shown to perform better than inductive learners. However, there is no general method to include domain knowledge into all inductive learning algorithms as all hybrid methods are highly specialized for a particular algorithm. We present an algorithm that will take domain knowledge in the form of propositional rules, generate artificial examples from the rules and also remove instances likely to be flawed. This enriched dataset then can be used by any learning algorithm. Experimental results of different scenarios are shown that demonstrate this method to be more effective than simple inductive learning.


A Novel Template-Based Learning Model

This article presents a model which is capable of learning and abstracting new concepts based on comparing observations and finding the resemblance between the observations. In the model, the new observations are compared with the templates which have been derived from the previous experiences. In the first stage, the objects are first represented through a geometric description which is used for finding the object boundaries and a descriptor which is inspired by the human visual system and then they are fed into the model. Next, the new observations are identified through comparing them with the previously-learned templates and are used for producing new templates. The comparisons are made based on measures like Euclidean or correlation distance. The new template is created by applying onion-pealing algorithm. The algorithm consecutively uses convex hulls which are made by the points representing the objects. If the new observation is remarkably similar to one of the observed categories, it is no longer utilized in creating a new template. The existing templates are used to provide a description of the new observation. This description is provided in the templates space. Each template represents a dimension of the feature space. The degree of the resemblance each template bears to each object indicates the value associated with the object in that dimension of the templates space. In this way, the description of the new observation becomes more accurate and detailed as the time passes and the experiences increase. We have used this model for learning and recognizing the new polygons in the polygon space. Representing the polygons was made possible through employing a geometric method and a method inspired by human visual system. Various implementations of the model have been compared. The evaluation results of the model prove its efficiency in learning and deriving new templates.


Infinite Multiple Membership Relational Modeling for Complex Networks

Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiple-membership latent feature model for networks. Contrary to existing multiple-membership models that scale quadratically in the number of vertices the proposed model scales linearly in the number of links admitting multiple-membership analysis in large scale networks. We demonstrate a connection between the single membership relational model and multiple membership models and show on "real" size benchmark network data that accounting for multiple memberships improves the learning of latent structure as measured by link prediction while explicitly accounting for multiple membership result in a more compact representation of the latent structure of networks.


A Complex Networks Approach for Data Clustering

Many methods have been developed for data clustering, such as k-means, expectation maximization and algorithms based on graph theory. In this latter case, graphs are generally constructed by taking into account the Euclidian distance as a similarity measure, and partitioned using spectral methods. However, these methods are not accurate when the clusters are not well separated. In addition, it is not possible to automatically determine the number of clusters. These limitations can be overcome by taking into account network community identification algorithms. In this work, we propose a methodology for data clustering based on complex networks theory. We compare different metrics for quantifying the similarity between objects and take into account three community finding techniques. This approach is applied to two real-world databases and to two sets of artificially generated data. By comparing our method with traditional clustering approaches, we verify that the proximity measures given by the Chebyshev and Manhattan distances are the most suitable metrics to quantify the similarity between objects. In addition, the community identification method based on the greedy optimization provides the smallest misclassification rates.


Active Markov Information-Theoretic Path Planning for Robotic Environmental Sensing

Recent research in multi-robot exploration and mapping has focused on sampling environmental fields, which are typically modeled using the Gaussian process (GP). Existing information-theoretic exploration strategies for learning GP-based environmental field maps adopt the non-Markovian problem structure and consequently scale poorly with the length of history of observations. Hence, it becomes computationally impractical to use these strategies for in situ, real-time active sampling. To ease this computational burden, this paper presents a Markov-based approach to efficient information-theoretic path planning for active sampling of GP-based fields. We analyze the time complexity of solving the Markov-based path planning problem, and demonstrate analytically that it scales better than that of deriving the non-Markovian strategies with increasing length of planning horizon. For a class of exploration tasks called the transect sampling task, we provide theoretical guarantees on the active sampling performance of our Markov-based policy, from which ideal environmental field conditions and sampling task settings can be established to limit its performance degradation due to violation of the Markov assumption. Empirical evaluation on real-world temperature and plankton density field data shows that our Markov-based policy can generally achieve active sampling performance comparable to that of the widely-used non-Markovian greedy policies under less favorable realistic field conditions and task settings while enjoying significant computational gain over them.


On the Local Correctness of L^1 Minimization for Dictionary Learning

The idea that many important classes of signals can be well-represented by linear combinations of a small set of atoms selected from a given dictionary has had dramatic impact on the theory and practice of signal processing. For practical problems in which an appropriate sparsifying dictionary is not known ahead of time, a very popular and successful heuristic is to search for a dictionary that minimizes an appropriate sparsity surrogate over a given set of sample data. While this idea is appealing, the behavior of these algorithms is largely a mystery; although there is a body of empirical evidence suggesting they do learn very effective representations, there is little theory to guarantee when they will behave correctly, or when the learned dictionary can be expected to generalize. In this paper, we take a step towards such a theory. We show that under mild hypotheses, the dictionary learning problem is locally well-posed: the desired solution is indeed a local minimum of the $\ell^1$ norm. Namely, if $\mb A \in \Re^{m \times n}$ is an incoherent (and possibly overcomplete) dictionary, and the coefficients $\mb X \in \Re^{n \times p}$ follow a random sparse model, then with high probability $(\mb A,\mb X)$ is a local minimum of the $\ell^1$ norm over the manifold of factorizations $(\mb A',\mb X')$ satisfying $\mb A' \mb X' = \mb Y$, provided the number of samples $p = \Omega(n^3 k)$. For overcomplete $\mb A$, this is the first result showing that the dictionary learning problem is locally solvable. Our analysis draws on tools developed for the problem of completing a low-rank matrix from a small subset of its entries, which allow us to overcome a number of technical obstacles; in particular, the absence of the restricted isometry property.


Statistical Compressed Sensing of Gaussian Mixture Models

A novel framework of compressed sensing, namely statistical compressed sensing (SCS), that aims at efficiently sampling a collection of signals that follow a statistical distribution, and achieving accurate reconstruction on average, is introduced. SCS based on Gaussian models is investigated in depth. For signals that follow a single Gaussian model, with Gaussian or Bernoulli sensing matrices of O(k) measurements, considerably smaller than the O(k log(N/k)) required by conventional CS based on sparse models, where N is the signal dimension, and with an optimal decoder implemented via linear filtering, significantly faster than the pursuit decoders applied in conventional CS, the error of SCS is shown tightly upper bounded by a constant times the best k-term approximation error, with overwhelming probability. The failure probability is also significantly smaller than that of conventional sparsity-oriented CS. Stronger yet simpler results further show that for any sensing matrix, the error of Gaussian SCS is upper bounded by a constant times the best k-term approximation with probability one, and the bound constant can be efficiently calculated. For Gaussian mixture models (GMMs), that assume multiple Gaussian distributions and that each signal follows one of them with an unknown index, a piecewise linear estimator is introduced to decode SCS. The accuracy of model selection, at the heart of the piecewise linear decoder, is analyzed in terms of the properties of the Gaussian distributions and the number of sensing measurements. A maximum a posteriori expectation-maximization algorithm that iteratively estimates the Gaussian models parameters, the signals model selection, and decodes the signals, is presented for GMM-based SCS. In real image sensing applications, GMM-based SCS is shown to lead to improved results compared to conventional CS, at a considerably lower computational cost.


The VC-Dimension of Queries and Selectivity Estimation Through Sampling

We develop a novel method, based on the statistical concept of the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension, to evaluate the selectivity (output cardinality) of SQL queries - a crucial step in optimizing the execution of large scale database and data-mining operations. The major theoretical contribution of this work, which is of independent interest, is an explicit bound to the VC-dimension of a range space defined by all possible outcomes of a collection (class) of queries. We prove that the VC-dimension is a function of the maximum number of Boolean operations in the selection predicate and of the maximum number of select and join operations in any individual query in the collection, but it is neither a function of the number of queries in the collection nor of the size (number of tuples) of the database. We leverage on this result and develop a method that, given a class of queries, builds a concise random sample of a database, such that with high probability the execution of any query in the class on the sample provides an accurate estimate for the selectivity of the query on the original large database. The error probability holds simultaneously for the selectivity estimates of all queries in the collection, thus the same sample can be used to evaluate the selectivity of multiple queries, and the sample needs to be refreshed only following major changes in the database. The sample representation computed by our method is typically sufficiently small to be stored in main memory. We present extensive experimental results, validating our theoretical analysis and demonstrating the advantage of our technique when compared to complex selectivity estimation techniques used in PostgreSQL and the Microsoft SQL Server.


Spatially-Aware Comparison and Consensus for Clusterings

This paper proposes a new distance metric between clusterings that incorporates information about the spatial distribution of points and clusters. Our approach builds on the idea of a Hilbert space-based representation of clusters as a combination of the representations of their constituent points. We use this representation and the underlying metric to design a spatially-aware consensus clustering procedure. This consensus procedure is implemented via a novel reduction to Euclidean clustering, and is both simple and efficient. All of our results apply to both soft and hard clusterings. We accompany these algorithms with a detailed experimental evaluation that demonstrates the efficiency and quality of our techniques.


Statistical methods for tissue array images - algorithmic scoring and co-training

Recent advances in tissue microarray technology have allowed immunohistochemistry to become a powerful medium-to-high throughput analysis tool, particularly for the validation of diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers. However, as study size grows, the manual evaluation of these assays becomes a prohibitive limitation; it vastly reduces throughput and greatly increases variability and expense. We propose an algorithm - Tissue Array Co-Occurrence Matrix Analysis (TACOMA) - for quantifying cellular phenotypes based on textural regularity summarized by local inter-pixel relationships. The algorithm can be easily trained for any staining pattern, is absent of sensitive tuning parameters and has the ability to report salient pixels in an image that contribute to its score. Pathologists' input via informative training patches is an important aspect of the algorithm that allows the training for any specific marker or cell type. With co-training, the error rate of TACOMA can be reduced substantially for a very small training sample (e.g., with size 30). We give theoretical insights into the success of co-training via thinning of the feature set in a high-dimensional setting when there is "sufficient" redundancy among the features. TACOMA is flexible, transparent and provides a scoring process that can be evaluated with clarity and confidence. In a study based on an estrogen receptor (ER) marker, we show that TACOMA is comparable to, or outperforms, pathologists' performance in terms of accuracy and repeatability.


EigenNet: A Bayesian hybrid of generative and conditional models for sparse learning

It is a challenging task to select correlated variables in a high dimensional space. To address this challenge, the elastic net has been developed and successfully applied to many applications. Despite its great success, the elastic net does not explicitly use correlation information embedded in data to select correlated variables. To overcome this limitation, we present a novel Bayesian hybrid model, the EigenNet, that uses the eigenstructures of data to guide variable selection. Specifically, it integrates a sparse conditional classification model with a generative model capturing variable correlations in a principled Bayesian framework. We reparameterize the hybrid model in the eigenspace to avoid overfiting and to increase the computational efficiency of its MCMC sampler. Furthermore, we provide an alternative view to the EigenNet from a regularization perspective: the EigenNet has an adaptive eigenspace-based composite regularizer, which naturally generalizes the $l_{1/2}$ regularizer used by the elastic net. Experiments on synthetic and real data show that the EigenNet significantly outperforms the lasso, the elastic net, and the Bayesian lasso in terms of prediction accuracy, especially when the number of training samples is smaller than the number of variables.


Evidence Feed Forward Hidden Markov Model: A New Type of Hidden Markov Model

The ability to predict the intentions of people based solely on their visual actions is a skill only performed by humans and animals. The intelligence of current computer algorithms has not reached this level of complexity, but there are several research efforts that are working towards it. With the number of classification algorithms available, it is hard to determine which algorithm works best for a particular situation. In classification of visual human intent data, Hidden Markov Models (HMM), and their variants, are leading candidates. The inability of HMMs to provide a probability in the observation to observation linkages is a big downfall in this classification technique. If a person is visually identifying an action of another person, they monitor patterns in the observations. By estimating the next observation, people have the ability to summarize the actions, and thus determine, with pretty good accuracy, the intention of the person performing the action. These visual cues and linkages are important in creating intelligent algorithms for determining human actions based on visual observations. The Evidence Feed Forward Hidden Markov Model is a newly developed algorithm which provides observation to observation linkages. The following research addresses the theory behind Evidence Feed Forward HMMs, provides mathematical proofs of their learning of these parameters to optimize the likelihood of observations with a Evidence Feed Forwards HMM, which is important in all computational intelligence algorithm, and gives comparative examples with standard HMMs in classification of both visual action data and measurement data; thus providing a strong base for Evidence Feed Forward HMMs in classification of many types of problems.


Collective Classification of Textual Documents by Guided Self-Organization in T-Cell Cross-Regulation Dynamics

We present and study an agent-based model of T-Cell cross-regulation in the adaptive immune system, which we apply to binary classification. Our method expands an existing analytical model of T-cell cross-regulation (Carneiro et al. in Immunol Rev 216(1):48-68, 2007) that was used to study the self-organizing dynamics of a single population of T-Cells in interaction with an idealized antigen presenting cell capable of presenting a single antigen. With agent-based modeling we are able to study the self-organizing dynamics of multiple populations of distinct T-cells which interact via antigen presenting cells that present hundreds of distinct antigens. Moreover, we show that such self-organizing dynamics can be guided to produce an effective binary classification of antigens, which is competitive with existing machine learning methods when applied to biomedical text classification. More specifically, here we test our model on a dataset of publicly available full-text biomedical articles provided by the BioCreative challenge (Krallinger in The biocreative ii. 5 challenge overview, p 19, 2009). We study the robustness of our model's parameter configurations, and show that it leads to encouraging results comparable to state-of-the-art classifiers. Our results help us understand both T-cell cross-regulation as a general principle of guided self-organization, as well as its applicability to document classification. Therefore, we show that our bio-inspired algorithm is a promising novel method for biomedical article classification and for binary document classification in general.


Phase transition in the detection of modules in sparse networks

We present an asymptotically exact analysis of the problem of detecting communities in sparse random networks. Our results are also applicable to detection of functional modules, partitions, and colorings in noisy planted models. Using a cavity method analysis, we unveil a phase transition from a region where the original group assignment is undetectable to one where detection is possible. In some cases, the detectable region splits into an algorithmically hard region and an easy one. Our approach naturally translates into a practical algorithm for detecting modules in sparse networks, and learning the parameters of the underlying model.


Refinement of Operator-valued Reproducing Kernels

This paper studies the construction of a refinement kernel for a given operator-valued reproducing kernel such that the vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space of the refinement kernel contains that of the given one as a subspace. The study is motivated from the need of updating the current operator-valued reproducing kernel in multi-task learning when underfitting or overfitting occurs. Numerical simulations confirm that the established refinement kernel method is able to meet this need. Various characterizations are provided based on feature maps and vector-valued integral representations of operator-valued reproducing kernels. Concrete examples of refining translation invariant and finite Hilbert-Schmidt operator-valued reproducing kernels are provided. Other examples include refinement of Hessian of scalar-valued translation-invariant kernels and transformation kernels. Existence and properties of operator-valued reproducing kernels preserved during the refinement process are also investigated.


An Introduction to Artificial Prediction Markets for Classification

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.


From Machine Learning to Machine Reasoning

A plausible definition of "reasoning" could be "algebraically manipulating previously acquired knowledge in order to answer a new question". This definition covers first-order logical inference or probabilistic inference. It also includes much simpler manipulations commonly used to build large learning systems. For instance, we can build an optical character recognition system by first training a character segmenter, an isolated character recognizer, and a language model, using appropriate labeled training sets. Adequately concatenating these modules and fine tuning the resulting system can be viewed as an algebraic operation in a space of models. The resulting model answers a new question, that is, converting the image of a text page into a computer readable text. This observation suggests a conceptual continuity between algebraically rich inference systems, such as logical or probabilistic inference, and simple manipulations, such as the mere concatenation of trainable learning systems. Therefore, instead of trying to bridge the gap between machine learning systems and sophisticated "all-purpose" inference mechanisms, we can instead algebraically enrich the set of manipulations applicable to training systems, and build reasoning capabilities from the ground up.


Universal Learning Theory

This encyclopedic article gives a mini-introduction into the theory of universal learning, founded by Ray Solomonoff in the 1960s and significantly developed and extended in the last decade. It explains the spirit of universal learning, but necessarily glosses over technical subtleties.


The KL-UCB Algorithm for Bounded Stochastic Bandits and Beyond

This paper presents a finite-time analysis of the KL-UCB algorithm, an online, horizon-free index policy for stochastic bandit problems. We prove two distinct results: first, for arbitrary bounded rewards, the KL-UCB algorithm satisfies a uniformly better regret bound than UCB or UCB2; second, in the special case of Bernoulli rewards, it reaches the lower bound of Lai and Robbins. Furthermore, we show that simple adaptations of the KL-UCB algorithm are also optimal for specific classes of (possibly unbounded) rewards, including those generated from exponential families of distributions. A large-scale numerical study comparing KL-UCB with its main competitors (UCB, UCB2, UCB-Tuned, UCB-V, DMED) shows that KL-UCB is remarkably efficient and stable, including for short time horizons. KL-UCB is also the only method that always performs better than the basic UCB policy. Our regret bounds rely on deviations results of independent interest which are stated and proved in the Appendix. As a by-product, we also obtain an improved regret bound for the standard UCB algorithm.


A General Framework for Development of the Cortex-like Visual Object Recognition System: Waves of Spikes, Predictive Coding and Universal Dictionary of Features

This study is focused on the development of the cortex-like visual object recognition system. We propose a general framework, which consists of three hierarchical levels (modules). These modules functionally correspond to the V1, V4 and IT areas. Both bottom-up and top-down connections between the hierarchical levels V4 and IT are employed. The higher the degree of matching between the input and the preferred stimulus, the shorter the response time of the neuron. Therefore information about a single stimulus is distributed in time and is transmitted by the waves of spikes. The reciprocal connections and waves of spikes implement predictive coding: an initial hypothesis is generated on the basis of information delivered by the first wave of spikes and is tested with the information carried by the consecutive waves. The development is considered as extraction and accumulation of features in V4 and objects in IT. Once stored a feature can be disposed, if rarely activated. This cause update of feature repository. Consequently, objects in IT are also updated. This illustrates the growing process and dynamical change of topological structures of V4, IT and connections between these areas.


Transductive Ordinal Regression

Ordinal regression is commonly formulated as a multi-class problem with ordinal constraints. The challenge of designing accurate classifiers for ordinal regression generally increases with the number of classes involved, due to the large number of labeled patterns that are needed. The availability of ordinal class labels, however, is often costly to calibrate or difficult to obtain. Unlabeled patterns, on the other hand, often exist in much greater abundance and are freely available. To take benefits from the abundance of unlabeled patterns, we present a novel transductive learning paradigm for ordinal regression in this paper, namely Transductive Ordinal Regression (TOR). The key challenge of the present study lies in the precise estimation of both the ordinal class label of the unlabeled data and the decision functions of the ordinal classes, simultaneously. The core elements of the proposed TOR include an objective function that caters to several commonly used loss functions casted in transductive settings, for general ordinal regression. A label swapping scheme that facilitates a strictly monotonic decrease in the objective function value is also introduced. Extensive numerical studies on commonly used benchmark datasets including the real world sentiment prediction problem are then presented to showcase the characteristics and efficacies of the proposed transductive ordinal regression. Further, comparisons to recent state-of-the-art ordinal regression methods demonstrate the introduced transductive learning paradigm for ordinal regression led to the robust and improved performance.


Decentralized Restless Bandit with Multiple Players and Unknown Dynamics

We consider decentralized restless multi-armed bandit problems with unknown dynamics and multiple players. The reward state of each arm transits according to an unknown Markovian rule when it is played and evolves according to an arbitrary unknown random process when it is passive. Players activating the same arm at the same time collide and suffer from reward loss. The objective is to maximize the long-term reward by designing a decentralized arm selection policy to address unknown reward models and collisions among players. A decentralized policy is constructed that achieves a regret with logarithmic order when an arbitrary nontrivial bound on certain system parameters is known. When no knowledge about the system is available, we extend the policy to achieve a regret arbitrarily close to the logarithmic order. The result finds applications in communication networks, financial investment, and industrial engineering.


Selecting the rank of truncated SVD by Maximum Approximation Capacity

Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) calculates the closest rank-$k$ approximation of a given input matrix. Selecting the appropriate rank $k$ defines a critical model order choice in most applications of SVD. To obtain a principled cut-off criterion for the spectrum, we convert the underlying optimization problem into a noisy channel coding problem. The optimal approximation capacity of this channel controls the appropriate strength of regularization to suppress noise. In simulation experiments, this information theoretic method to determine the optimal rank competes with state-of-the art model selection techniques.


Adaptive Cluster Expansion for Inferring Boltzmann Machines with Noisy Data

We introduce a procedure to infer the interactions among a set of binary variables, based on their sampled frequencies and pairwise correlations. The algorithm builds the clusters of variables contributing most to the entropy of the inferred Ising model, and rejects the small contributions due to the sampling noise. Our procedure successfully recovers benchmark Ising models even at criticality and in the low temperature phase, and is applied to neurobiological data.


Online Learning of Rested and Restless Bandits

In this paper we study the online learning problem involving rested and restless multiarmed bandits with multiple plays. The system consists of a single player/user and a set of K finite-state discrete-time Markov chains (arms) with unknown state spaces and statistics. At each time step the player can play M arms. The objective of the user is to decide for each step which M of the K arms to play over a sequence of trials so as to maximize its long term reward. The restless multiarmed bandit is particularly relevant to the application of opportunistic spectrum access (OSA), where a (secondary) user has access to a set of K channels, each of time-varying condition as a result of random fading and/or certain primary users' activities.


Active Clustering: Robust and Efficient Hierarchical Clustering using Adaptively Selected Similarities

Hierarchical clustering based on pairwise similarities is a common tool used in a broad range of scientific applications. However, in many problems it may be expensive to obtain or compute similarities between the items to be clustered. This paper investigates the hierarchical clustering of N items based on a small subset of pairwise similarities, significantly less than the complete set of N(N-1)/2 similarities. First, we show that if the intracluster similarities exceed intercluster similarities, then it is possible to correctly determine the hierarchical clustering from as few as 3N log N similarities. We demonstrate this order of magnitude savings in the number of pairwise similarities necessitates sequentially selecting which similarities to obtain in an adaptive fashion, rather than picking them at random. We then propose an active clustering method that is robust to a limited fraction of anomalous similarities, and show how even in the presence of these noisy similarity values we can resolve the hierarchical clustering using only O(N log^2 N) pairwise similarities.


Inferring Disease and Gene Set Associations with Rank Coherence in Networks

A computational challenge to validate the candidate disease genes identified in a high-throughput genomic study is to elucidate the associations between the set of candidate genes and disease phenotypes. The conventional gene set enrichment analysis often fails to reveal associations between disease phenotypes and the gene sets with a short list of poorly annotated genes, because the existing annotations of disease causative genes are incomplete. We propose a network-based computational approach called rcNet to discover the associations between gene sets and disease phenotypes. Assuming coherent associations between the genes ranked by their relevance to the query gene set, and the disease phenotypes ranked by their relevance to the hidden target disease phenotypes of the query gene set, we formulate a learning framework maximizing the rank coherence with respect to the known disease phenotype-gene associations. An efficient algorithm coupling ridge regression with label propagation, and two variants are introduced to find the optimal solution of the framework. We evaluated the rcNet algorithms and existing baseline methods with both leave-one-out cross-validation and a task of predicting recently discovered disease-gene associations in OMIM. The experiments demonstrated that the rcNet algorithms achieved the best overall rankings compared to the baselines. To further validate the reproducibility of the performance, we applied the algorithms to identify the target diseases of novel candidate disease genes obtained from recent studies of GWAS, DNA copy number variation analysis, and gene expression profiling. The algorithms ranked the target disease of the candidate genes at the top of the rank list in many cases across all the three case studies. The rcNet algorithms are available as a webtool for disease and gene set association analysis at http://compbio.cs.umn.edu/dgsa_rcNet.


Concentration-Based Guarantees for Low-Rank Matrix Reconstruction

We consider the problem of approximately reconstructing a partially-observed, approximately low-rank matrix. This problem has received much attention lately, mostly using the trace-norm as a surrogate to the rank. Here we study low-rank matrix reconstruction using both the trace-norm, as well as the less-studied max-norm, and present reconstruction guarantees based on existing analysis on the Rademacher complexity of the unit balls of these norms. We show how these are superior in several ways to recently published guarantees based on specialized analysis.


Sparse Signal Recovery with Temporally Correlated Source Vectors Using Sparse Bayesian Learning

We address the sparse signal recovery problem in the context of multiple measurement vectors (MMV) when elements in each nonzero row of the solution matrix are temporally correlated. Existing algorithms do not consider such temporal correlations and thus their performance degrades significantly with the correlations. In this work, we propose a block sparse Bayesian learning framework which models the temporal correlations. In this framework we derive two sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) algorithms, which have superior recovery performance compared to existing algorithms, especially in the presence of high temporal correlations. Furthermore, our algorithms are better at handling highly underdetermined problems and require less row-sparsity on the solution matrix. We also provide analysis of the global and local minima of their cost function, and show that the SBL cost function has the very desirable property that the global minimum is at the sparsest solution to the MMV problem. Extensive experiments also provide some interesting results that motivate future theoretical research on the MMV model.


Privacy Preserving Spam Filtering

Email is a private medium of communication, and the inherent privacy constraints form a major obstacle in developing effective spam filtering methods which require access to a large amount of email data belonging to multiple users. To mitigate this problem, we envision a privacy preserving spam filtering system, where the server is able to train and evaluate a logistic regression based spam classifier on the combined email data of all users without being able to observe any emails using primitives such as homomorphic encryption and randomization. We analyze the protocols for correctness and security, and perform experiments of a prototype system on a large scale spam filtering task. State of the art spam filters often use character n-grams as features which result in large sparse data representation, which is not feasible to be used directly with our training and evaluation protocols. We explore various data independent dimensionality reduction which decrease the running time of the protocol making it feasible to use in practice while achieving high accuracy.


Sparse neural networks with large learning diversity

Coded recurrent neural networks with three levels of sparsity are introduced. The first level is related to the size of messages, much smaller than the number of available neurons. The second one is provided by a particular coding rule, acting as a local constraint in the neural activity. The third one is a characteristic of the low final connection density of the network after the learning phase. Though the proposed network is very simple since it is based on binary neurons and binary connections, it is able to learn a large number of messages and recall them, even in presence of strong erasures. The performance of the network is assessed as a classifier and as an associative memory.


Link Prediction by De-anonymization: How We Won the Kaggle Social Network Challenge

This paper describes the winning entry to the IJCNN 2011 Social Network Challenge run by Kaggle.com. The goal of the contest was to promote research on real-world link prediction, and the dataset was a graph obtained by crawling the popular Flickr social photo sharing website, with user identities scrubbed. By de-anonymizing much of the competition test set using our own Flickr crawl, we were able to effectively game the competition. Our attack represents a new application of de-anonymization to gaming machine learning contests, suggesting changes in how future competitions should be run. We introduce a new simulated annealing-based weighted graph matching algorithm for the seeding step of de-anonymization. We also show how to combine de-anonymization with link prediction---the latter is required to achieve good performance on the portion of the test set not de-anonymized---for example by training the predictor on the de-anonymized portion of the test set, and combining probabilistic predictions from de-anonymization and link prediction.


Internal Regret with Partial Monitoring. Calibration-Based Optimal Algorithms

We provide consistent random algorithms for sequential decision under partial monitoring, i.e. when the decision maker does not observe the outcomes but receives instead random feedback signals. Those algorithms have no internal regret in the sense that, on the set of stages where the decision maker chose his action according to a given law, the average payoff could not have been improved in average by using any other fixed law. They are based on a generalization of calibration, no longer defined in terms of a Voronoi diagram but instead of a Laguerre diagram (a more general concept). This allows us to bound, for the first time in this general framework, the expected average internal -- as well as the usual external -- regret at stage $n$ by $O(n^{-1/3})$, which is known to be optimal.


Noisy matrix decomposition via convex relaxation: Optimal rates in high dimensions

We analyze a class of estimators based on convex relaxation for solving high-dimensional matrix decomposition problems. The observations are noisy realizations of a linear transformation $\mathfrak{X}$ of the sum of an approximately) low rank matrix $\Theta^\star$ with a second matrix $\Gamma^\star$ endowed with a complementary form of low-dimensional structure; this set-up includes many statistical models of interest, including factor analysis, multi-task regression, and robust covariance estimation. We derive a general theorem that bounds the Frobenius norm error for an estimate of the pair $(\Theta^\star, \Gamma^\star)$ obtained by solving a convex optimization problem that combines the nuclear norm with a general decomposable regularizer. Our results utilize a "spikiness" condition that is related to but milder than singular vector incoherence. We specialize our general result to two cases that have been studied in past work: low rank plus an entrywise sparse matrix, and low rank plus a columnwise sparse matrix. For both models, our theory yields non-asymptotic Frobenius error bounds for both deterministic and stochastic noise matrices, and applies to matrices $\Theta^\star$ that can be exactly or approximately low rank, and matrices $\Gamma^\star$ that can be exactly or approximately sparse. Moreover, for the case of stochastic noise matrices and the identity observation operator, we establish matching lower bounds on the minimax error. The sharpness of our predictions is confirmed by numerical simulations.


Sparse Bayesian Methods for Low-Rank Matrix Estimation

Recovery of low-rank matrices has recently seen significant activity in many areas of science and engineering, motivated by recent theoretical results for exact reconstruction guarantees and interesting practical applications. A number of methods have been developed for this recovery problem. However, a principled method for choosing the unknown target rank is generally not provided. In this paper, we present novel recovery algorithms for estimating low-rank matrices in matrix completion and robust principal component analysis based on sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) principles. Starting from a matrix factorization formulation and enforcing the low-rank constraint in the estimates as a sparsity constraint, we develop an approach that is very effective in determining the correct rank while providing high recovery performance. We provide connections with existing methods in other similar problems and empirical results and comparisons with current state-of-the-art methods that illustrate the effectiveness of this approach.


Deformed Statistics Free Energy Model for Source Separation using Unsupervised Learning

A generalized-statistics variational principle for source separation is formulated by recourse to Tsallis' entropy subjected to the additive duality and employing constraints described by normal averages. The variational principle is amalgamated with Hopfield-like learning rules resulting in an unsupervised learning model. The update rules are formulated with the aid of q-deformed calculus. Numerical examples exemplify the efficacy of this model.


Decision Making Agent Searching for Markov Models in Near-Deterministic World

Reinforcement learning has solid foundations, but becomes inefficient in partially observed (non-Markovian) environments. Thus, a learning agent -born with a representation and a policy- might wish to investigate to what extent the Markov property holds. We propose a learning architecture that utilizes combinatorial policy optimization to overcome non-Markovity and to develop efficient behaviors, which are easy to inherit, tests the Markov property of the behavioral states, and corrects against non-Markovity by running a deterministic factored Finite State Model, which can be learned. We illustrate the properties of architecture in the near deterministic Ms. Pac-Man game. We analyze the architecture from the point of view of evolutionary, individual, and social learning.


Low Complexity Kolmogorov-Smirnov Modulation Classification

Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test-a non-parametric method to measure the goodness of fit, is applied for automatic modulation classification (AMC) in this paper. The basic procedure involves computing the empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) of some decision statistic derived from the received signal, and comparing it with the CDFs of the signal under each candidate modulation format. The K-S-based modulation classifier is first developed for AWGN channel, then it is applied to OFDM-SDMA systems to cancel multiuser interference. Regarding the complexity issue of K-S modulation classification, we propose a low-complexity method based on the robustness of the K-S classifier. Extensive simulation results demonstrate that compared with the traditional cumulant-based classifiers, the proposed K-S classifier offers superior classification performance and requires less number of signal samples (thus is fast).


Fast and Faster: A Comparison of Two Streamed Matrix Decomposition Algorithms

With the explosion of the size of digital dataset, the limiting factor for decomposition algorithms is the \emph{number of passes} over the input, as the input is often stored out-of-core or even off-site. Moreover, we're only interested in algorithms that operate in \emph{constant memory} w.r.t. to the input size, so that arbitrarily large input can be processed. In this paper, we present a practical comparison of two such algorithms: a distributed method that operates in a single pass over the input vs. a streamed two-pass stochastic algorithm. The experiments track the effect of distributed computing, oversampling and memory trade-offs on the accuracy and performance of the two algorithms. To ensure meaningful results, we choose the input to be a real dataset, namely the whole of the English Wikipedia, in the application settings of Latent Semantic Analysis.


Named Entity Recognition Using Web Document Corpus

This paper introduces a named entity recognition approach in textual corpus. This Named Entity (NE) can be a named: location, person, organization, date, time, etc., characterized by instances. A NE is found in texts accompanied by contexts: words that are left or right of the NE. The work mainly aims at identifying contexts inducing the NE's nature. As such, The occurrence of the word "President" in a text, means that this word or context may be followed by the name of a president as President "Obama". Likewise, a word preceded by the string "footballer" induces that this is the name of a footballer. NE recognition may be viewed as a classification method, where every word is assigned to a NE class, regarding the context. The aim of this study is then to identify and classify the contexts that are most relevant to recognize a NE, those which are frequently found with the NE. A learning approach using training corpus: web documents, constructed from learning examples is then suggested. Frequency representations and modified tf-idf representations are used to calculate the context weights associated to context frequency, learning example frequency, and document frequency in the corpus.


Neyman-Pearson classification, convexity and stochastic constraints

Motivated by problems of anomaly detection, this paper implements the Neyman-Pearson paradigm to deal with asymmetric errors in binary classification with a convex loss. Given a finite collection of classifiers, we combine them and obtain a new classifier that satisfies simultaneously the two following properties with high probability: (i) its probability of type I error is below a pre-specified level and (ii), it has probability of type II error close to the minimum possible. The proposed classifier is obtained by solving an optimization problem with an empirical objective and an empirical constraint. New techniques to handle such problems are developed and have consequences on chance constrained programming.


A generic trust framework for large-scale open systems using machine learning

In many large scale distributed systems and on the web, agents need to interact with other unknown agents to carry out some tasks or transactions. The ability to reason about and assess the potential risks in carrying out such transactions is essential for providing a safe and reliable environment. A traditional approach to reason about the trustworthiness of a transaction is to determine the trustworthiness of the specific agent involved, derived from the history of its behavior. As a departure from such traditional trust models, we propose a generic, machine learning approach based trust framework where an agent uses its own previous transactions (with other agents) to build a knowledge base, and utilize this to assess the trustworthiness of a transaction based on associated features, which are capable of distinguishing successful transactions from unsuccessful ones. These features are harnessed using appropriate machine learning algorithms to extract relationships between the potential transaction and previous transactions. The trace driven experiments using real auction dataset show that this approach provides good accuracy and is highly efficient compared to other trust mechanisms, especially when historical information of the specific agent is rare, incomplete or inaccurate.


Multi-label Learning via Structured Decomposition and Group Sparsity

In multi-label learning, each sample is associated with several labels. Existing works indicate that exploring correlations between labels improve the prediction performance. However, embedding the label correlations into the training process significantly increases the problem size. Moreover, the mapping of the label structure in the feature space is not clear. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-label learning method "Structured Decomposition + Group Sparsity (SDGS)". In SDGS, we learn a feature subspace for each label from the structured decomposition of the training data, and predict the labels of a new sample from its group sparse representation on the multi-subspace obtained from the structured decomposition. In particular, in the training stage, we decompose the data matrix $X\in R^{n\times p}$ as $X=\sum_{i=1}^kL^i+S$, wherein the rows of $L^i$ associated with samples that belong to label $i$ are nonzero and consist a low-rank matrix, while the other rows are all-zeros, the residual $S$ is a sparse matrix. The row space of $L_i$ is the feature subspace corresponding to label $i$. This decomposition can be efficiently obtained via randomized optimization. In the prediction stage, we estimate the group sparse representation of a new sample on the multi-subspace via group \emph{lasso}. The nonzero representation coefficients tend to concentrate on the subspaces of labels that the sample belongs to, and thus an effective prediction can be obtained. We evaluate SDGS on several real datasets and compare it with popular methods. Results verify the effectiveness and efficiency of SDGS.


Natural Language Processing (almost) from Scratch

We propose a unified neural network architecture and learning algorithm that can be applied to various natural language processing tasks including: part-of-speech tagging, chunking, named entity recognition, and semantic role labeling. This versatility is achieved by trying to avoid task-specific engineering and therefore disregarding a lot of prior knowledge. Instead of exploiting man-made input features carefully optimized for each task, our system learns internal representations on the basis of vast amounts of mostly unlabeled training data. This work is then used as a basis for building a freely available tagging system with good performance and minimal computational requirements.


Learning transformed product distributions

We consider the problem of learning an unknown product distribution $X$ over $\{0,1\}^n$ using samples $f(X)$ where $f$ is a \emph{known} transformation function. Each choice of a transformation function $f$ specifies a learning problem in this framework. Information-theoretic arguments show that for every transformation function $f$ the corresponding learning problem can be solved to accuracy $\eps$, using $\tilde{O}(n/\eps^2)$ examples, by a generic algorithm whose running time may be exponential in $n.$ We show that this learning problem can be computationally intractable even for constant $\eps$ and rather simple transformation functions. Moreover, the above sample complexity bound is nearly optimal for the general problem, as we give a simple explicit linear transformation function $f(x)=w \cdot x$ with integer weights $w_i \leq n$ and prove that the corresponding learning problem requires $\Omega(n)$ samples. As our main positive result we give a highly efficient algorithm for learning a sum of independent unknown Bernoulli random variables, corresponding to the transformation function $f(x)= \sum_{i=1}^n x_i$. Our algorithm learns to $\eps$-accuracy in poly$(n)$ time, using a surprising poly$(1/\eps)$ number of samples that is independent of $n.$ We also give an efficient algorithm that uses $\log n \cdot \poly(1/\eps)$ samples but has running time that is only $\poly(\log n, 1/\eps).$


Sparse Volterra and Polynomial Regression Models: Recoverability and Estimation

Volterra and polynomial regression models play a major role in nonlinear system identification and inference tasks. Exciting applications ranging from neuroscience to genome-wide association analysis build on these models with the additional requirement of parsimony. This requirement has high interpretative value, but unfortunately cannot be met by least-squares based or kernel regression methods. To this end, compressed sampling (CS) approaches, already successful in linear regression settings, can offer a viable alternative. The viability of CS for sparse Volterra and polynomial models is the core theme of this work. A common sparse regression task is initially posed for the two models. Building on (weighted) Lasso-based schemes, an adaptive RLS-type algorithm is developed for sparse polynomial regressions. The identifiability of polynomial models is critically challenged by dimensionality. However, following the CS principle, when these models are sparse, they could be recovered by far fewer measurements. To quantify the sufficient number of measurements for a given level of sparsity, restricted isometry properties (RIP) are investigated in commonly met polynomial regression settings, generalizing known results for their linear counterparts. The merits of the novel (weighted) adaptive CS algorithms to sparse polynomial modeling are verified through synthetic as well as real data tests for genotype-phenotype analysis.


Efficient Multi-Template Learning for Structured Prediction

Conditional random field (CRF) and Structural Support Vector Machine (Structural SVM) are two state-of-the-art methods for structured prediction which captures the interdependencies among output variables. The success of these methods is attributed to the fact that their discriminative models are able to account for overlapping features on the whole input observations. These features are usually generated by applying a given set of templates on labeled data, but improper templates may lead to degraded performance. To alleviate this issue, in this paper, we propose a novel multiple template learning paradigm to learn structured prediction and the importance of each template simultaneously, so that hundreds of arbitrary templates could be added into the learning model without caution. This paradigm can be formulated as a special multiple kernel learning problem with exponential number of constraints. Then we introduce an efficient cutting plane algorithm to solve this problem in the primal, and its convergence is presented. We also evaluate the proposed learning paradigm on two widely-studied structured prediction tasks, \emph{i.e.} sequence labeling and dependency parsing. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms CRFs and Structural SVMs due to exploiting the importance of each template. Our complexity analysis and empirical results also show that our proposed method is more efficient than OnlineMKL on very sparse and high-dimensional data. We further extend this paradigm for structured prediction using generalized $p$-block norm regularization with $p>1$, and experiments show competitive performances when $p \in [1,2)$.


Estimating $\beta$-mixing coefficients

The literature on statistical learning for time series assumes the asymptotic independence or ``mixing' of the data-generating process. These mixing assumptions are never tested, nor are there methods for estimating mixing rates from data. We give an estimator for the $\beta$-mixing rate based on a single stationary sample path and show it is $L_1$-risk consistent.


Generalization error bounds for stationary autoregressive models

We derive generalization error bounds for stationary univariate autoregressive (AR) models. We show that imposing stationarity is enough to control the Gaussian complexity without further regularization. This lets us use structural risk minimization for model selection. We demonstrate our methods by predicting interest rate movements.


Adapting to Non-stationarity with Growing Expert Ensembles

When dealing with time series with complex non-stationarities, low retrospective regret on individual realizations is a more appropriate goal than low prospective risk in expectation. Online learning algorithms provide powerful guarantees of this form, and have often been proposed for use with non-stationary processes because of their ability to switch between different forecasters or ``experts''. However, existing methods assume that the set of experts whose forecasts are to be combined are all given at the start, which is not plausible when dealing with a genuinely historical or evolutionary system. We show how to modify the ``fixed shares'' algorithm for tracking the best expert to cope with a steadily growing set of experts, obtained by fitting new models to new data as it becomes available, and obtain regret bounds for the growing ensemble.


A Feature Selection Method for Multivariate Performance Measures

Feature selection with specific multivariate performance measures is the key to the success of many applications, such as image retrieval and text classification. The existing feature selection methods are usually designed for classification error. In this paper, we propose a generalized sparse regularizer. Based on the proposed regularizer, we present a unified feature selection framework for general loss functions. In particular, we study the novel feature selection paradigm by optimizing multivariate performance measures. The resultant formulation is a challenging problem for high-dimensional data. Hence, a two-layer cutting plane algorithm is proposed to solve this problem, and the convergence is presented. In addition, we adapt the proposed method to optimize multivariate measures for multiple instance learning problems. The analyses by comparing with the state-of-the-art feature selection methods show that the proposed method is superior to others. Extensive experiments on large-scale and high-dimensional real world datasets show that the proposed method outperforms $l_1$-SVM and SVM-RFE when choosing a small subset of features, and achieves significantly improved performances over SVM$^{perf}$ in terms of $F_1$-score.


Localization from Incomplete Noisy Distance Measurements

We consider the problem of positioning a cloud of points in the Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^d$, using noisy measurements of a subset of pairwise distances. This task has applications in various areas, such as sensor network localization and reconstruction of protein conformations from NMR measurements. Also, it is closely related to dimensionality reduction problems and manifold learning, where the goal is to learn the underlying global geometry of a data set using local (or partial) metric information. Here we propose a reconstruction algorithm based on semidefinite programming. For a random geometric graph model and uniformly bounded noise, we provide a precise characterization of the algorithm's performance: In the noiseless case, we find a radius $r_0$ beyond which the algorithm reconstructs the exact positions (up to rigid transformations). In the presence of noise, we obtain upper and lower bounds on the reconstruction error that match up to a factor that depends only on the dimension $d$, and the average degree of the nodes in the graph.


A Gentle Introduction to the Kernel Distance

This document reviews the definition of the kernel distance, providing a gentle introduction tailored to a reader with background in theoretical computer science, but limited exposure to technology more common to machine learning, functional analysis and geometric measure theory. The key aspect of the kernel distance developed here is its interpretation as an L_2 distance between probability measures or various shapes (e.g. point sets, curves, surfaces) embedded in a vector space (specifically an RKHS). This structure enables several elegant and efficient solutions to data analysis problems. We conclude with a glimpse into the mathematical underpinnings of this measure, highlighting its recent independent evolution in two separate fields.


Information Theoretic Limits on Learning Stochastic Differential Equations

Consider the problem of learning the drift coefficient of a stochastic differential equation from a sample path. In this paper, we assume that the drift is parametrized by a high dimensional vector. We address the question of how long the system needs to be observed in order to learn this vector of parameters. We prove a general lower bound on this time complexity by using a characterization of mutual information as time integral of conditional variance, due to Kadota, Zakai, and Ziv. This general lower bound is applied to specific classes of linear and non-linear stochastic differential equations. In the linear case, the problem under consideration is the one of learning a matrix of interaction coefficients. We evaluate our lower bound for ensembles of sparse and dense random matrices. The resulting estimates match the qualitative behavior of upper bounds achieved by computationally efficient procedures.


COMET: A Recipe for Learning and Using Large Ensembles on Massive Data

COMET is a single-pass MapReduce algorithm for learning on large-scale data. It builds multiple random forest ensembles on distributed blocks of data and merges them into a mega-ensemble. This approach is appropriate when learning from massive-scale data that is too large to fit on a single machine. To get the best accuracy, IVoting should be used instead of bagging to generate the training subset for each decision tree in the random forest. Experiments with two large datasets (5GB and 50GB compressed) show that COMET compares favorably (in both accuracy and training time) to learning on a subsample of data using a serial algorithm. Finally, we propose a new Gaussian approach for lazy ensemble evaluation which dynamically decides how many ensemble members to evaluate per data point; this can reduce evaluation cost by 100X or more.


Heterogeneous Learning in Zero-Sum Stochastic Games with Incomplete Information

Learning algorithms are essential for the applications of game theory in a networking environment. In dynamic and decentralized settings where the traffic, topology and channel states may vary over time and the communication between agents is impractical, it is important to formulate and study games of incomplete information and fully distributed learning algorithms which for each agent requires a minimal amount of information regarding the remaining agents. In this paper, we address this major challenge and introduce heterogeneous learning schemes in which each agent adopts a distinct learning pattern in the context of games with incomplete information. We use stochastic approximation techniques to show that the heterogeneous learning schemes can be studied in terms of their deterministic ordinary differential equation (ODE) counterparts. Depending on the learning rates of the players, these ODEs could be different from the standard replicator dynamics, (myopic) best response (BR) dynamics, logit dynamics, and fictitious play dynamics. We apply the results to a class of security games in which the attacker and the defender adopt different learning schemes due to differences in their rationality levels and the information they acquire.


Autotagging music with conditional restricted Boltzmann machines

This paper describes two applications of conditional restricted Boltzmann machines (CRBMs) to the task of autotagging music. The first consists of training a CRBM to predict tags that a user would apply to a clip of a song based on tags already applied by other users. By learning the relationships between tags, this model is able to pre-process training data to significantly improve the performance of a support vector machine (SVM) autotagging. The second is the use of a discriminative RBM, a type of CRBM, to autotag music. By simultaneously exploiting the relationships among tags and between tags and audio-based features, this model is able to significantly outperform SVMs, logistic regression, and multi-layer perceptrons. In order to be applied to this problem, the discriminative RBM was generalized to the multi-label setting and four different learning algorithms for it were evaluated, the first such in-depth analysis of which we are aware.


A note on active learning for smooth problems

We show that the disagreement coefficient of certain smooth hypothesis classes is $O(m)$, where $m$ is the dimension of the hypothesis space, thereby answering a question posed in \cite{friedman09}.


Distributed Learning Policies for Power Allocation in Multiple Access Channels

We analyze the problem of distributed power allocation for orthogonal multiple access channels by considering a continuous non-cooperative game whose strategy space represents the users' distribution of transmission power over the network's channels. When the channels are static, we find that this game admits an exact potential function and this allows us to show that it has a unique equilibrium almost surely. Furthermore, using the game's potential property, we derive a modified version of the replicator dynamics of evolutionary game theory which applies to this continuous game, and we show that if the network's users employ a distributed learning scheme based on these dynamics, then they converge to equilibrium exponentially quickly. On the other hand, a major challenge occurs if the channels do not remain static but fluctuate stochastically over time, following a stationary ergodic process. In that case, the associated ergodic game still admits a unique equilibrium, but the learning analysis becomes much more complicated because the replicator dynamics are no longer deterministic. Nonetheless, by employing results from the theory of stochastic approximation, we show that users still converge to the game's unique equilibrium. Our analysis hinges on a game-theoretical result which is of independent interest: in finite player games which admit a (possibly nonlinear) convex potential function, the replicator dynamics (suitably modified to account for nonlinear payoffs) converge to an eps-neighborhood of an equilibrium at time of order O(log(1/eps)).


Refining Recency Search Results with User Click Feedback

Traditional machine-learned ranking systems for web search are often trained to capture stationary relevance of documents to queries, which has limited ability to track non-stationary user intention in a timely manner. In recency search, for instance, the relevance of documents to a query on breaking news often changes significantly over time, requiring effective adaptation to user intention. In this paper, we focus on recency search and study a number of algorithms to improve ranking results by leveraging user click feedback. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we use real search sessions collected in a random exploration bucket for \emph{reliable} offline evaluation of these algorithms, which provides an unbiased comparison across algorithms without online bucket tests. Second, we propose a re-ranking approach to improve search results for recency queries using user clicks. Third, our empirical comparison of a dozen algorithms on real-life search data suggests importance of a few algorithmic choices in these applications, including generalization across different query-document pairs, specialization to popular queries, and real-time adaptation of user clicks.


Pattern-recalling processes in quantum Hopfield networks far from saturation

As a mathematical model of associative memories, the Hopfield model was now well-established and a lot of studies to reveal the pattern-recalling process have been done from various different approaches. As well-known, a single neuron is itself an uncertain, noisy unit with a finite unnegligible error in the input-output relation. To model the situation artificially, a kind of 'heat bath' that surrounds neurons is introduced. The heat bath, which is a source of noise, is specified by the 'temperature'. Several studies concerning the pattern-recalling processes of the Hopfield model governed by the Glauber-dynamics at finite temperature were already reported. However, we might extend the 'thermal noise' to the quantum-mechanical variant. In this paper, in terms of the stochastic process of quantum-mechanical Markov chain Monte Carlo method (the quantum MCMC), we analytically derive macroscopically deterministic equations of order parameters such as 'overlap' in a quantum-mechanical variant of the Hopfield neural networks (let us call "quantum Hopfield model" or "quantum Hopfield networks"). For the case in which non-extensive number $p$ of patterns are embedded via asymmetric Hebbian connections, namely, $p/N \to 0$ for the number of neuron $N \to \infty$ ('far from saturation'), we evaluate the recalling processes for one of the built-in patterns under the influence of quantum-mechanical noise.


A Linear Classifier Based on Entity Recognition Tools and a Statistical Approach to Method Extraction in the Protein-Protein Interaction Literature

We participated, in the Article Classification and the Interaction Method subtasks (ACT and IMT, respectively) of the Protein-Protein Interaction task of the BioCreative III Challenge. For the ACT, we pursued an extensive testing of available Named Entity Recognition and dictionary tools, and used the most promising ones to extend our Variable Trigonometric Threshold linear classifier. For the IMT, we experimented with a primarily statistical approach, as opposed to employing a deeper natural language processing strategy. Finally, we also studied the benefits of integrating the method extraction approach that we have used for the IMT into the ACT pipeline. For the ACT, our linear article classifier leads to a ranking and classification performance significantly higher than all the reported submissions. For the IMT, our results are comparable to those of other systems, which took very different approaches. For the ACT, we show that the use of named entity recognition tools leads to a substantial improvement in the ranking and classification of articles relevant to protein-protein interaction. Thus, we show that our substantially expanded linear classifier is a very competitive classifier in this domain. Moreover, this classifier produces interpretable surfaces that can be understood as "rules" for human understanding of the classification. In terms of the IMT task, in contrast to other participants, our approach focused on identifying sentences that are likely to bear evidence for the application of a PPI detection method, rather than on classifying a document as relevant to a method. As BioCreative III did not perform an evaluation of the evidence provided by the system, we have conducted a separate assessment; the evaluators agree that our tool is indeed effective in detecting relevant evidence for PPI detection methods.


Parallel Online Learning

In this work we study parallelization of online learning, a core primitive in machine learning. In a parallel environment all known approaches for parallel online learning lead to delayed updates, where the model is updated using out-of-date information. In the worst case, or when examples are temporally correlated, delay can have a very adverse effect on the learning algorithm. Here, we analyze and present preliminary empirical results on a set of learning architectures based on a feature sharding approach that present various tradeoffs between delay, degree of parallelism, representation power and empirical performance.


Clustered regression with unknown clusters

We consider a collection of prediction experiments, which are clustered in the sense that groups of experiments ex- hibit similar relationship between the predictor and response variables. The experiment clusters as well as the regres- sion relationships are unknown. The regression relation- ships define the experiment clusters, and in general, the predictor and response variables may not exhibit any clus- tering. We call this prediction problem clustered regres- sion with unknown clusters (CRUC) and in this paper we focus on linear regression. We study and compare several methods for CRUC, demonstrate their applicability to the Yahoo Learning-to-rank Challenge (YLRC) dataset, and in- vestigate an associated mathematical model. CRUC is at the crossroads of many prior works and we study several prediction algorithms with diverse origins: an adaptation of the expectation-maximization algorithm, an approach in- spired by K-means clustering, the singular value threshold- ing approach to matrix rank minimization under quadratic constraints, an adaptation of the Curds and Whey method in multiple regression, and a local regression (LoR) scheme reminiscent of neighborhood methods in collaborative filter- ing. Based on empirical evaluation on the YLRC dataset as well as simulated data, we identify the LoR method as a good practical choice: it yields best or near-best prediction performance at a reasonable computational load, and it is less sensitive to the choice of the algorithm parameter. We also provide some analysis of the LoR method for an asso- ciated mathematical model, which sheds light on optimal parameter choice and prediction performance.


Handwritten Digit Recognition with a Committee of Deep Neural Nets on GPUs

The competitive MNIST handwritten digit recognition benchmark has a long history of broken records since 1998. The most recent substantial improvement by others dates back 7 years (error rate 0.4%) . Recently we were able to significantly improve this result, using graphics cards to greatly speed up training of simple but deep MLPs, which achieved 0.35%, outperforming all the previous more complex methods. Here we report another substantial improvement: 0.31% obtained using a committee of MLPs.


Doubly Robust Policy Evaluation and Learning

We study decision making in environments where the reward is only partially observed, but can be modeled as a function of an action and an observed context. This setting, known as contextual bandits, encompasses a wide variety of applications including health-care policy and Internet advertising. A central task is evaluation of a new policy given historic data consisting of contexts, actions and received rewards. The key challenge is that the past data typically does not faithfully represent proportions of actions taken by a new policy. Previous approaches rely either on models of rewards or models of the past policy. The former are plagued by a large bias whereas the latter have a large variance. In this work, we leverage the strength and overcome the weaknesses of the two approaches by applying the doubly robust technique to the problems of policy evaluation and optimization. We prove that this approach yields accurate value estimates when we have either a good (but not necessarily consistent) model of rewards or a good (but not necessarily consistent) model of past policy. Extensive empirical comparison demonstrates that the doubly robust approach uniformly improves over existing techniques, achieving both lower variance in value estimation and better policies. As such, we expect the doubly robust approach to become common practice.


Classification of Sets using Restricted Boltzmann Machines

We consider the problem of classification when inputs correspond to sets of vectors. This setting occurs in many problems such as the classification of pieces of mail containing several pages, of web sites with several sections or of images that have been pre-segmented into smaller regions. We propose generalizations of the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) that are appropriate in this context and explore how to incorporate different assumptions about the relationship between the input sets and the target class within the RBM. In experiments on standard multiple-instance learning datasets, we demonstrate the competitiveness of approaches based on RBMs and apply the proposed variants to the problem of incoming mail classification.