Echo State Queueing Network: a new reservoir computing learning tool

In the last decade, a new computational paradigm was introduced in the field of Machine Learning, under the name of Reservoir Computing (RC). RC models are neural networks which a recurrent part (the reservoir) that does not participate in the learning process, and the rest of the system where no recurrence (no neural circuit) occurs. This approach has grown rapidly due to its success in solving learning tasks and other computational applications. Some success was also observed with another recently proposed neural network designed using Queueing Theory, the Random Neural Network (RandNN). Both approaches have good properties and identified drawbacks. In this paper, we propose a new RC model called Echo State Queueing Network (ESQN), where we use ideas coming from RandNNs for the design of the reservoir. ESQNs consist in ESNs where the reservoir has a new dynamics inspired by recurrent RandNNs. The paper positions ESQNs in the global Machine Learning area, and provides examples of their use and performances. We show on largely used benchmarks that ESQNs are very accurate tools, and we illustrate how they compare with standard ESNs.


On-line relational SOM for dissimilarity data

In some applications and in order to address real world situations better, data may be more complex than simple vectors. In some examples, they can be known through their pairwise dissimilarities only. Several variants of the Self Organizing Map algorithm were introduced to generalize the original algorithm to this framework. Whereas median SOM is based on a rough representation of the prototypes, relational SOM allows representing these prototypes by a virtual combination of all elements in the data set. However, this latter approach suffers from two main drawbacks. First, its complexity can be large. Second, only a batch version of this algorithm has been studied so far and it often provides results having a bad topographic organization. In this article, an on-line version of relational SOM is described and justified. The algorithm is tested on several datasets, including categorical data and graphs, and compared with the batch version and with other SOM algorithms for non vector data.


Focus of Attention for Linear Predictors

We present a method to stop the evaluation of a prediction process when the result of the full evaluation is obvious. This trait is highly desirable in prediction tasks where a predictor evaluates all its features for every example in large datasets. We observe that some examples are easier to classify than others, a phenomenon which is characterized by the event when most of the features agree on the class of an example. By stopping the feature evaluation when encountering an easy- to-classify example, the predictor can achieve substantial gains in computation. Our method provides a natural attention mechanism for linear predictors where the predictor concentrates most of its computation on hard-to-classify examples and quickly discards easy-to-classify ones. By modifying a linear prediction algorithm such as an SVM or AdaBoost to include our attentive method we prove that the average number of features computed is O(sqrt(n log 1/sqrt(delta))) where n is the original number of features, and delta is the error rate incurred due to early stopping. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Attentive Prediction on MNIST, Real-sim, Gisette, and synthetic datasets.


Maximizing a Nonnegative, Monotone, Submodular Function Constrained to Matchings

Submodular functions have many applications. Matchings have many applications. The bitext word alignment problem can be modeled as the problem of maximizing a nonnegative, monotone, submodular function constrained to matchings in a complete bipartite graph where each vertex corresponds to a word in the two input sentences and each edge represents a potential word-to-word translation. We propose a more general problem of maximizing a nonnegative, monotone, submodular function defined on the edge set of a complete graph constrained to matchings; we call this problem the CSM-Matching problem. CSM-Matching also generalizes the maximum-weight matching problem, which has a polynomial-time algorithm; however, we show that it is NP-hard to approximate CSM-Matching within a factor of e/(e-1) by reducing the max k-cover problem to it. Our main result is a simple, greedy, 3-approximation algorithm for CSM-Matching. Then we reduce CSM-Matching to maximizing a nonnegative, monotone, submodular function over two matroids, i.e., CSM-2-Matroids. CSM-2-Matroids has a (2+epsilon)-approximation algorithm - called LSV2. We show that we can find a (4+epsilon)-approximate solution to CSM-Matching using LSV2. We extend this approach to similar problems.


Training a Functional Link Neural Network Using an Artificial Bee Colony for Solving a Classification Problems

Artificial Neural Networks have emerged as an important tool for classification and have been widely used to classify a non-linear separable pattern. The most popular artificial neural networks model is a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) as it is able to perform classification task with significant success. However due to the complexity of MLP structure and also problems such as local minima trapping, over fitting and weight interference have made neural network training difficult. Thus, the easy way to avoid these problems is to remove the hidden layers. This paper presents the ability of Functional Link Neural Network (FLNN) to overcome the complexity structure of MLP by using single layer architecture and propose an Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) optimization for training the FLNN. The proposed technique is expected to provide better learning scheme for a classifier in order to get more accurate classification result


Fast Solutions to Projective Monotone Linear Complementarity Problems

We present a new interior-point potential-reduction algorithm for solving monotone linear complementarity problems (LCPs) that have a particular special structure: their matrix $M\in{\mathbb R}^{n\times n}$ can be decomposed as $M=\Phi U + \Pi_0$, where the rank of $\Phi$ is $k<n$, and $\Pi_0$ denotes Euclidean projection onto the nullspace of $\Phi^\top$. We call such LCPs projective. Our algorithm solves a monotone projective LCP to relative accuracy $\epsilon$ in $O(\sqrt n \ln(1/\epsilon))$ iterations, with each iteration requiring $O(nk^2)$ flops. This complexity compares favorably with interior-point algorithms for general monotone LCPs: these algorithms also require $O(\sqrt n \ln(1/\epsilon))$ iterations, but each iteration needs to solve an $n\times n$ system of linear equations, a much higher cost than our algorithm when $k\ll n$. Our algorithm works even though the solution to a projective LCP is not restricted to lie in any low-rank subspace.


Bethe Bounds and Approximating the Global Optimum

Inference in general Markov random fields (MRFs) is NP-hard, though identifying the maximum a posteriori (MAP) configuration of pairwise MRFs with submodular cost functions is efficiently solvable using graph cuts. Marginal inference, however, even for this restricted class, is in #P. We prove new formulations of derivatives of the Bethe free energy, provide bounds on the derivatives and bracket the locations of stationary points, introducing a new technique called Bethe bound propagation. Several results apply to pairwise models whether associative or not. Applying these to discretized pseudo-marginals in the associative case we present a polynomial time approximation scheme for global optimization provided the maximum degree is $O(\log n)$, and discuss several extensions.


On Distributed Online Classification in the Midst of Concept Drifts

In this work, we analyze the generalization ability of distributed online learning algorithms under stationary and non-stationary environments. We derive bounds for the excess-risk attained by each node in a connected network of learners and study the performance advantage that diffusion strategies have over individual non-cooperative processing. We conduct extensive simulations to illustrate the results.


CloudSVM : Training an SVM Classifier in Cloud Computing Systems

In conventional method, distributed support vector machines (SVM) algorithms are trained over pre-configured intranet/internet environments to find out an optimal classifier. These methods are very complicated and costly for large datasets. Hence, we propose a method that is referred as the Cloud SVM training mechanism (CloudSVM) in a cloud computing environment with MapReduce technique for distributed machine learning applications. Accordingly, (i) SVM algorithm is trained in distributed cloud storage servers that work concurrently; (ii) merge all support vectors in every trained cloud node; and (iii) iterate these two steps until the SVM converges to the optimal classifier function. Large scale data sets are not possible to train using SVM algorithm on a single computer. The results of this study are important for training of large scale data sets for machine learning applications. We provided that iterative training of splitted data set in cloud computing environment using SVM will converge to a global optimal classifier in finite iteration size.


Policy Evaluation with Variance Related Risk Criteria in Markov Decision Processes

In this paper we extend temporal difference policy evaluation algorithms to performance criteria that include the variance of the cumulative reward. Such criteria are useful for risk management, and are important in domains such as finance and process control. We propose both TD(0) and LSTD(lambda) variants with linear function approximation, prove their convergence, and demonstrate their utility in a 4-dimensional continuous state space problem.


Semi-Supervised Domain Adaptation with Non-Parametric Copulas

A new framework based on the theory of copulas is proposed to address semi- supervised domain adaptation problems. The presented method factorizes any multivariate density into a product of marginal distributions and bivariate cop- ula functions. Therefore, changes in each of these factors can be detected and corrected to adapt a density model accross different learning domains. Impor- tantly, we introduce a novel vine copula model, which allows for this factorization in a non-parametric manner. Experimental results on regression problems with real-world data illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach when compared to state-of-the-art techniques.


A Novel Design Specification Distance(DSD) Based K-Mean Clustering Performace Evluation on Engineering Materials Database

Organizing data into semantically more meaningful is one of the fundamental modes of understanding and learning. Cluster analysis is a formal study of methods for understanding and algorithm for learning. K-mean clustering algorithm is one of the most fundamental and simple clustering algorithms. When there is no prior knowledge about the distribution of data sets, K-mean is the first choice for clustering with an initial number of clusters. In this paper a novel distance metric called Design Specification (DS) distance measure function is integrated with K-mean clustering algorithm to improve cluster accuracy. The K-means algorithm with proposed distance measure maximizes the cluster accuracy to 99.98% at P = 1.525, which is determined through the iterative procedure. The performance of Design Specification (DS) distance measure function with K - mean algorithm is compared with the performances of other standard distance functions such as Euclidian, squared Euclidean, City Block, and Chebshew similarity measures deployed with K-mean algorithm.The proposed method is evaluated on the engineering materials database. The experiments on cluster analysis and the outlier profiling show that these is an excellent improvement in the performance of the proposed method.


Follow the Leader If You Can, Hedge If You Must

Follow-the-Leader (FTL) is an intuitive sequential prediction strategy that guarantees constant regret in the stochastic setting, but has terrible performance for worst-case data. Other hedging strategies have better worst-case guarantees but may perform much worse than FTL if the data are not maximally adversarial. We introduce the FlipFlop algorithm, which is the first method that provably combines the best of both worlds. As part of our construction, we develop AdaHedge, which is a new way of dynamically tuning the learning rate in Hedge without using the doubling trick. AdaHedge refines a method by Cesa-Bianchi, Mansour and Stoltz (2007), yielding slightly improved worst-case guarantees. By interleaving AdaHedge and FTL, the FlipFlop algorithm achieves regret within a constant factor of the FTL regret, without sacrificing AdaHedge's worst-case guarantees. AdaHedge and FlipFlop do not need to know the range of the losses in advance; moreover, unlike earlier methods, both have the intuitive property that the issued weights are invariant under rescaling and translation of the losses. The losses are also allowed to be negative, in which case they may be interpreted as gains.


Learning Hierarchical Object Maps Of Non-Stationary Environments with mobile robots

Building models, or maps, of robot environments is a highly active research area; however, most existing techniques construct unstructured maps and assume static environments. In this paper, we present an algorithm for learning object models of non-stationary objects found in office-type environments. Our algorithm exploits the fact that many objects found in office environments look alike (e.g., chairs, recycling bins). It does so through a two-level hierarchical representation, which links individual objects with generic shape templates of object classes. We derive an approximate EM algorithm for learning shape parameters at both levels of the hierarchy, using local occupancy grid maps for representing shape. Additionally, we develop a Bayesian model selection algorithm that enables the robot to estimate the total number of objects and object templates in the environment. Experimental results using a real robot equipped with a laser range finder indicate that our approach performs well at learning object-based maps of simple office environments. The approach outperforms a previously developed non-hierarchical algorithm that models objects but lacks class templates.


Tree-dependent Component Analysis

We present a generalization of independent component analysis (ICA), where instead of looking for a linear transform that makes the data components independent, we look for a transform that makes the data components well fit by a tree-structured graphical model. Treating the problem as a semiparametric statistical problem, we show that the optimal transform is found by minimizing a contrast function based on mutual information, a function that directly extends the contrast function used for classical ICA. We provide two approximations of this contrast function, one using kernel density estimation, and another using kernel generalized variance. This tree-dependent component analysis framework leads naturally to an efficient general multivariate density estimation technique where only bivariate density estimation needs to be performed.


Learning with Scope, with Application to Information Extraction and Classification

In probabilistic approaches to classification and information extraction, one typically builds a statistical model of words under the assumption that future data will exhibit the same regularities as the training data. In many data sets, however, there are scope-limited features whose predictive power is only applicable to a certain subset of the data. For example, in information extraction from web pages, word formatting may be indicative of extraction category in different ways on different web pages. The difficulty with using such features is capturing and exploiting the new regularities encountered in previously unseen data. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that uses both local/scope-limited features, such as word formatting, and global features, such as word content. The local regularities are modeled as an unobserved random parameter which is drawn once for each local data set. This random parameter is estimated during the inference process and then used to perform classification with both the local and global features--- a procedure which is akin to automatically retuning the classifier to the local regularities on each newly encountered web page. Exact inference is intractable and we present approximations via point estimates and variational methods. Empirical results on large collections of web data demonstrate that this method significantly improves performance from traditional models of global features alone.


Continuation Methods for Mixing Heterogenous Sources

A number of modern learning tasks involve estimation from heterogeneous information sources. This includes classification with labeled and unlabeled data as well as other problems with analogous structure such as competitive (game theoretic) problems. The associated estimation problems can be typically reduced to solving a set of fixed point equations (consistency conditions). We introduce a general method for combining a preferred information source with another in this setting by evolving continuous paths of fixed points at intermediate allocations. We explicitly identify critical points along the unique paths to either increase the stability of estimation or to ensure a significant departure from the initial source. The homotopy continuation approach is guaranteed to terminate at the second source, and involves no combinatorial effort. We illustrate the power of these ideas both in classification tasks with labeled and unlabeled data, as well as in the context of a competitive (min-max) formulation of DNA sequence motif discovery.


Interpolating Conditional Density Trees

Joint distributions over many variables are frequently modeled by decomposing them into products of simpler, lower-dimensional conditional distributions, such as in sparsely connected Bayesian networks. However, automatically learning such models can be very computationally expensive when there are many datapoints and many continuous variables with complex nonlinear relationships, particularly when no good ways of decomposing the joint distribution are known a priori. In such situations, previous research has generally focused on the use of discretization techniques in which each continuous variable has a single discretization that is used throughout the entire network. \ In this paper, we present and compare a wide variety of tree-based algorithms for learning and evaluating conditional density estimates over continuous variables. These trees can be thought of as discretizations that vary according to the particular interactions being modeled; however, the density within a given leaf of the tree need not be assumed constant, and we show that such nonuniform leaf densities lead to more accurate density estimation. We have developed Bayesian network structure-learning algorithms that employ these tree-based conditional density representations, and we show that they can be used to practically learn complex joint probability models over dozens of continuous variables from thousands of datapoints. We focus on finding models that are simultaneously accurate, fast to learn, and fast to evaluate once they are learned.


An Information-Theoretic External Cluster-Validity Measure

In this paper we propose a measure of clustering quality or accuracy that is appropriate in situations where it is desirable to evaluate a clustering algorithm by somehow comparing the clusters it produces with ``ground truth' consisting of classes assigned to the patterns by manual means or some other means in whose veracity there is confidence. Such measures are refered to as ``external'. Our measure also has the characteristic of allowing clusterings with different numbers of clusters to be compared in a quantitative and principled way. Our evaluation scheme quantitatively measures how useful the cluster labels of the patterns are as predictors of their class labels. In cases where all clusterings to be compared have the same number of clusters, the measure is equivalent to the mutual information between the cluster labels and the class labels. In cases where the numbers of clusters are different, however, it computes the reduction in the number of bits that would be required to encode (compress) the class labels if both the encoder and decoder have free acccess to the cluster labels. To achieve this encoding the estimated conditional probabilities of the class labels given the cluster labels must also be encoded. These estimated probabilities can be seen as a model for the class labels and their associated code length as a model cost.


The Thing That We Tried Didn't Work Very Well : Deictic Representation in Reinforcement Learning

Most reinforcement learning methods operate on propositional representations of the world state. Such representations are often intractably large and generalize poorly. Using a deictic representation is believed to be a viable alternative: they promise generalization while allowing the use of existing reinforcement-learning methods. Yet, there are few experiments on learning with deictic representations reported in the literature. In this paper we explore the effectiveness of two forms of deictic representation and a na\"{i}ve propositional representation in a simple blocks-world domain. We find, empirically, that the deictic representations actually worsen learning performance. We conclude with a discussion of possible causes of these results and strategies for more effective learning in domains with objects.


Dimension Correction for Hierarchical Latent Class Models

Model complexity is an important factor to consider when selecting among graphical models. When all variables are observed, the complexity of a model can be measured by its standard dimension, i.e. the number of independent parameters. When hidden variables are present, however, standard dimension might no longer be appropriate. One should instead use effective dimension (Geiger et al. 1996). This paper is concerned with the computation of effective dimension. First we present an upper bound on the effective dimension of a latent class (LC) model. This bound is tight and its computation is easy. We then consider a generalization of LC models called hierarchical latent class (HLC) models (Zhang 2002). We show that the effective dimension of an HLC model can be obtained from the effective dimensions of some related LC models. We also demonstrate empirically that using effective dimension in place of standard dimension improves the quality of models learned from data.


Almost-everywhere algorithmic stability and generalization error

We explore in some detail the notion of algorithmic stability as a viable framework for analyzing the generalization error of learning algorithms. We introduce the new notion of training stability of a learning algorithm and show that, in a general setting, it is sufficient for good bounds on generalization error. In the PAC setting, training stability is both necessary and sufficient for learnability.\ The approach based on training stability makes no reference to VC dimension or VC entropy. There is no need to prove uniform convergence, and generalization error is bounded directly via an extended McDiarmid inequality. As a result it potentially allows us to deal with a broader class of learning algorithms than Empirical Risk Minimization. \ We also explore the relationships among VC dimension, generalization error, and various notions of stability. Several examples of learning algorithms are considered.


Decayed MCMC Filtering

Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior distribution is generally intractable for large discrete systems and for nonlinear continuous systems, so a good deal of effort has gone into developing robust approximation algorithms. This paper describes a simple stochastic approximation algorithm for filtering called {em decayed MCMC}. The algorithm applies Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to the space of state trajectories using a proposal distribution that favours flips of more recent state variables. The formal analysis of the algorithm involves a generalization of standard coupling arguments for MCMC convergence. We prove that for any ergodic underlying Markov process, the convergence time of decayed MCMC with inverse-polynomial decay remains bounded as the length of the observation sequence grows. We show experimentally that decayed MCMC is at least competitive with other approximation algorithms such as particle filtering.


Staged Mixture Modelling and Boosting

In this paper, we introduce and evaluate a data-driven staged mixture modeling technique for building density, regression, and classification models. Our basic approach is to sequentially add components to a finite mixture model using the structural expectation maximization (SEM) algorithm. We show that our technique is qualitatively similar to boosting. This correspondence is a natural byproduct of the fact that we use the SEM algorithm to sequentially fit the mixture model. Finally, in our experimental evaluation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of prediction and density estimation tasks using real-world data.


Optimal Time Bounds for Approximate Clustering

Clustering is a fundamental problem in unsupervised learning, and has been studied widely both as a problem of learning mixture models and as an optimization problem. In this paper, we study clustering with respect the emph{k-median} objective function, a natural formulation of clustering in which we attempt to minimize the average distance to cluster centers. One of the main contributions of this paper is a simple but powerful sampling technique that we call emph{successive sampling} that could be of independent interest. We show that our sampling procedure can rapidly identify a small set of points (of size just O(klog{n/k})) that summarize the input points for the purpose of clustering. Using successive sampling, we develop an algorithm for the k-median problem that runs in O(nk) time for a wide range of values of k and is guaranteed, with high probability, to return a solution with cost at most a constant factor times optimal. We also establish a lower bound of Omega(nk) on any randomized constant-factor approximation algorithm for the k-median problem that succeeds with even a negligible (say 1/100) probability. Thus we establish a tight time bound of Theta(nk) for the k-median problem for a wide range of values of k. The best previous upper bound for the problem was O(nk), where the O-notation hides polylogarithmic factors in n and k. The best previous lower bound of O(nk) applied only to deterministic k-median algorithms. While we focus our presentation on the k-median objective, all our upper bounds are valid for the k-means objective as well. In this context our algorithm compares favorably to the widely used k-means heuristic, which requires O(nk) time for just one iteration and provides no useful approximation guarantees.


Expectation-Propogation for the Generative Aspect Model

The generative aspect model is an extension of the multinomial model for text that allows word probabilities to vary stochastically across documents. Previous results with aspect models have been promising, but hindered by the computational difficulty of carrying out inference and learning. This paper demonstrates that the simple variational methods of Blei et al (2001) can lead to inaccurate inferences and biased learning for the generative aspect model. We develop an alternative approach that leads to higher accuracy at comparable cost. An extension of Expectation-Propagation is used for inference and then embedded in an EM algorithm for learning. Experimental results are presented for both synthetic and real data sets.


Bayesian Network Classifiers in a High Dimensional Framework

We present a growing dimension asymptotic formalism. The perspective in this paper is classification theory and we show that it can accommodate probabilistic networks classifiers, including naive Bayes model and its augmented version. When represented as a Bayesian network these classifiers have an important advantage: The corresponding discriminant function turns out to be a specialized case of a generalized additive model, which makes it possible to get closed form expressions for the asymptotic misclassification probabilities used here as a measure of classification accuracy. Moreover, in this paper we propose a new quantity for assessing the discriminative power of a set of features which is then used to elaborate the augmented naive Bayes classifier. The result is a weighted form of the augmented naive Bayes that distributes weights among the sets of features according to their discriminative power. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the sample based discriminative power and show that it is seriously overestimated in a high dimensional case. We then apply this result to find the optimal, in a sense of minimum misclassification probability, type of weighting.


Asymptotic Model Selection for Naive Bayesian Networks

We develop a closed form asymptotic formula to compute the marginal likelihood of data given a naive Bayesian network model with two hidden states and binary features. This formula deviates from the standard BIC score. Our work provides a concrete example that the BIC score is generally not valid for statistical models that belong to a stratified exponential family. This stands in contrast to linear and curved exponential families, where the BIC score has been proven to provide a correct approximation for the marginal likelihood.


Advances in Boosting (Invited Talk)

Boosting is a general method of generating many simple classification rules and combining them into a single, highly accurate rule. In this talk, I will review the AdaBoost boosting algorithm and some of its underlying theory, and then look at how this theory has helped us to face some of the challenges of applying AdaBoost in two domains: In the first of these, we used boosting for predicting and modeling the uncertainty of prices in complicated, interacting auctions. The second application was to the classification of caller utterances in a telephone spoken-dialogue system where we faced two challenges: the need to incorporate prior knowledge to compensate for initially insufficient data; and a later need to filter the large stream of unlabeled examples being collected to select the ones whose labels are likely to be most informative.


An MDP-based Recommender System

Typical Recommender systems adopt a static view of the recommendation process and treat it as a prediction problem. We argue that it is more appropriate to view the problem of generating recommendations as a sequential decision problem and, consequently, that Markov decision processes (MDP) provide a more appropriate model for Recommender systems. MDPs introduce two benefits: they take into account the long-term effects of each recommendation, and they take into account the expected value of each recommendation. To succeed in practice, an MDP-based Recommender system must employ a strong initial model; and the bulk of this paper is concerned with the generation of such a model. In particular, we suggest the use of an n-gram predictive model for generating the initial MDP. Our n-gram model induces a Markov-chain model of user behavior whose predictive accuracy is greater than that of existing predictive models. We describe our predictive model in detail and evaluate its performance on real data. In addition, we show how the model can be used in an MDP-based Recommender system.


Reinforcement Learning with Partially Known World Dynamics

Reinforcement learning would enjoy better success on real-world problems if domain knowledge could be imparted to the algorithm by the modelers. Most problems have both hidden state and unknown dynamics. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) allow for the modeling of both. Unfortunately, they do not provide a natural framework in which to specify knowledge about the domain dynamics. The designer must either admit to knowing nothing about the dynamics or completely specify the dynamics (thereby turning it into a planning problem). We propose a new framework called a partially known Markov decision process (PKMDP) which allows the designer to specify known dynamics while still leaving portions of the environment s dynamics unknown.The model represents NOT ONLY the environment dynamics but also the agents knowledge of the dynamics. We present a reinforcement learning algorithm for this model based on importance sampling. The algorithm incorporates planning based on the known dynamics and learning about the unknown dynamics. Our results clearly demonstrate the ability to add domain knowledge and the resulting benefits for learning.


Unsupervised Active Learning in Large Domains

Active learning is a powerful approach to analyzing data effectively. We show that the feasibility of active learning depends crucially on the choice of measure with respect to which the query is being optimized. The standard information gain, for example, does not permit an accurate evaluation with a small committee, a representative subset of the model space. We propose a surrogate measure requiring only a small committee and discuss the properties of this new measure. We devise, in addition, a bootstrap approach for committee selection. The advantages of this approach are illustrated in the context of recovering (regulatory) network models.


Discriminative Probabilistic Models for Relational Data

In many supervised learning tasks, the entities to be labeled are related to each other in complex ways and their labels are not independent. For example, in hypertext classification, the labels of linked pages are highly correlated. A standard approach is to classify each entity independently, ignoring the correlations between them. Recently, Probabilistic Relational Models, a relational version of Bayesian networks, were used to define a joint probabilistic model for a collection of related entities. In this paper, we present an alternative framework that builds on (conditional) Markov networks and addresses two limitations of the previous approach. First, undirected models do not impose the acyclicity constraint that hinders representation of many important relational dependencies in directed models. Second, undirected models are well suited for discriminative training, where we optimize the conditional likelihood of the labels given the features, which generally improves classification accuracy. We show how to train these models effectively, and how to use approximate probabilistic inference over the learned model for collective classification of multiple related entities. We provide experimental results on a webpage classification task, showing that accuracy can be significantly improved by modeling relational dependencies.


A New Class of Upper Bounds on the Log Partition Function

Bounds on the log partition function are important in a variety of contexts, including approximate inference, model fitting, decision theory, and large deviations analysis. We introduce a new class of upper bounds on the log partition function, based on convex combinations of distributions in the exponential domain, that is applicable to an arbitrary undirected graphical model. In the special case of convex combinations of tree-structured distributions, we obtain a family of variational problems, similar to the Bethe free energy, but distinguished by the following desirable properties: i. they are cnvex, and have a unique global minimum; and ii. the global minimum gives an upper bound on the log partition function. The global minimum is defined by stationary conditions very similar to those defining fixed points of belief propagation or tree-based reparameterization Wainwright et al., 2001. As with BP fixed points, the elements of the minimizing argument can be used as approximations to the marginals of the original model. The analysis described here can be extended to structures of higher treewidth e.g., hypertrees, thereby making connections with more advanced approximations e.g., Kikuchi and variants Yedidia et al., 2001; Minka, 2001.


IPF for Discrete Chain Factor Graphs

Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), combined with EM, is commonly used as an algorithm for likelihood maximization in undirected graphical models. In this paper, we present two iterative algorithms that generalize upon IPF. The first one is for likelihood maximization in discrete chain factor graphs, which we define as a wide class of discrete variable models including undirected graphical models and Bayesian networks, but also chain graphs and sigmoid belief networks. The second one is for conditional likelihood maximization in standard undirected models and Bayesian networks. In both algorithms, the iteration steps are expressed in closed form. Numerical simulations show that the algorithms are competitive with state of the art methods.


The Sum-over-Forests density index: identifying dense regions in a graph

This work introduces a novel nonparametric density index defined on graphs, the Sum-over-Forests (SoF) density index. It is based on a clear and intuitive idea: high-density regions in a graph are characterized by the fact that they contain a large amount of low-cost trees with high outdegrees while low-density regions contain few ones. Therefore, a Boltzmann probability distribution on the countable set of forests in the graph is defined so that large (high-cost) forests occur with a low probability while short (low-cost) forests occur with a high probability. Then, the SoF density index of a node is defined as the expected outdegree of this node in a non-trivial tree of the forest, thus providing a measure of density around that node. Following the matrix-forest theorem, and a statistical physics framework, it is shown that the SoF density index can be easily computed in closed form through a simple matrix inversion. Experiments on artificial and real data sets show that the proposed index performs well on finding dense regions, for graphs of various origins.


Borrowing strengh in hierarchical Bayes: Posterior concentration of the Dirichlet base measure

This paper studies posterior concentration behavior of the base probability measure of a Dirichlet measure, given observations associated with the sampled Dirichlet processes, as the number of observations tends to infinity. The base measure itself is endowed with another Dirichlet prior, a construction known as the hierarchical Dirichlet processes (Teh et al. [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 101 (2006) 1566-1581]). Convergence rates are established in transportation distances (i.e., Wasserstein metrics) under various conditions on the geometry of the support of the true base measure. As a consequence of the theory, we demonstrate the benefit of "borrowing strength" in the inference of multiple groups of data - a powerful insight often invoked to motivate hierarchical modeling. In certain settings, the gain in efficiency due to the latent hierarchy can be dramatic, improving from a standard nonparametric rate to a parametric rate of convergence. Tools developed include transportation distances for nonparametric Bayesian hierarchies of random measures, the existence of tests for Dirichlet measures, and geometric properties of the support of Dirichlet measures.


Finding the True Frequent Itemsets

Frequent Itemsets (FIs) mining is a fundamental primitive in data mining. It requires to identify all itemsets appearing in at least a fraction $\theta$ of a transactional dataset $\mathcal{D}$. Often though, the ultimate goal of mining $\mathcal{D}$ is not an analysis of the dataset \emph{per se}, but the understanding of the underlying process that generated it. Specifically, in many applications $\mathcal{D}$ is a collection of samples obtained from an unknown probability distribution $\pi$ on transactions, and by extracting the FIs in $\mathcal{D}$ one attempts to infer itemsets that are frequently (i.e., with probability at least $\theta$) generated by $\pi$, which we call the True Frequent Itemsets (TFIs). Due to the inherently stochastic nature of the generative process, the set of FIs is only a rough approximation of the set of TFIs, as it often contains a huge number of \emph{false positives}, i.e., spurious itemsets that are not among the TFIs. In this work we design and analyze an algorithm to identify a threshold $\hat{\theta}$ such that the collection of itemsets with frequency at least $\hat{\theta}$ in $\mathcal{D}$ contains only TFIs with probability at least $1-\delta$, for some user-specified $\delta$. Our method uses results from statistical learning theory involving the (empirical) VC-dimension of the problem at hand. This allows us to identify almost all the TFIs without including any false positive. We also experimentally compare our method with the direct mining of $\mathcal{D}$ at frequency $\theta$ and with techniques based on widely-used standard bounds (i.e., the Chernoff bounds) of the binomial distribution, and show that our algorithm outperforms these methods and achieves even better results than what is guaranteed by the theoretical analysis.


Dynamical Models and Tracking Regret in Online Convex Programming

This paper describes a new online convex optimization method which incorporates a family of candidate dynamical models and establishes novel tracking regret bounds that scale with the comparator's deviation from the best dynamical model in this family. Previous online optimization methods are designed to have a total accumulated loss comparable to that of the best comparator sequence, and existing tracking or shifting regret bounds scale with the overall variation of the comparator sequence. In many practical scenarios, however, the environment is nonstationary and comparator sequences with small variation are quite weak, resulting in large losses. The proposed Dynamic Mirror Descent method, in contrast, can yield low regret relative to highly variable comparator sequences by both tracking the best dynamical model and forming predictions based on that model. This concept is demonstrated empirically in the context of sequential compressive observations of a dynamic scene and tracking a dynamic social network.


Automated Variational Inference in Probabilistic Programming

We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly structured distributions that arise in probabilistic programs. We show how to automatically derive mean-field probabilistic programs and optimize them, and demonstrate that our perspective improves inference efficiency over other algorithms.


Coupled Neural Associative Memories

We propose a novel architecture to design a neural associative memory that is capable of learning a large number of patterns and recalling them later in presence of noise. It is based on dividing the neurons into local clusters and parallel plains, very similar to the architecture of the visual cortex of macaque brain. The common features of our proposed architecture with those of spatially-coupled codes enable us to show that the performance of such networks in eliminating noise is drastically better than the previous approaches while maintaining the ability of learning an exponentially large number of patterns. Previous work either failed in providing good performance during the recall phase or in offering large pattern retrieval (storage) capacities. We also present computational experiments that lend additional support to the theoretical analysis.


An Efficient Algorithm for Upper Bound on the Partition Function of Nucleic Acids

It has been shown that minimum free energy structure for RNAs and RNA-RNA interaction is often incorrect due to inaccuracies in the energy parameters and inherent limitations of the energy model. In contrast, ensemble based quantities such as melting temperature and equilibrium concentrations can be more reliably predicted. Even structure prediction by sampling from the ensemble and clustering those structures by Sfold [7] has proven to be more reliable than minimum free energy structure prediction. The main obstacle for ensemble based approaches is the computational complexity of the partition function and base pairing probabilities. For instance, the space complexity of the partition function for RNA-RNA interaction is $O(n^4)$ and the time complexity is $O(n^6)$ which are prohibitively large [4,12]. Our goal in this paper is to give a fast algorithm, based on sparse folding, to calculate an upper bound on the partition function. Our work is based on the recent algorithm of Hazan and Jaakkola [10]. The space complexity of our algorithm is the same as that of sparse folding algorithms, and the time complexity of our algorithm is $O(MFE(n)\ell)$ for single RNA and $O(MFE(m, n)\ell)$ for RNA-RNA interaction in practice, in which $MFE$ is the running time of sparse folding and $\ell \leq n$ ($\ell \leq n + m$) is a sequence dependent parameter.


The RNA Newton Polytope and Learnability of Energy Parameters

Despite nearly two scores of research on RNA secondary structure and RNA-RNA interaction prediction, the accuracy of the state-of-the-art algorithms are still far from satisfactory. Researchers have proposed increasingly complex energy models and improved parameter estimation methods in anticipation of endowing their methods with enough power to solve the problem. The output has disappointingly been only modest improvements, not matching the expectations. Even recent massively featured machine learning approaches were not able to break the barrier. In this paper, we introduce the notion of learnability of the parameters of an energy model as a measure of its inherent capability. We say that the parameters of an energy model are learnable iff there exists at least one set of such parameters that renders every known RNA structure to date the minimum free energy structure. We derive a necessary condition for the learnability and give a dynamic programming algorithm to assess it. Our algorithm computes the convex hull of the feature vectors of all feasible structures in the ensemble of a given input sequence. Interestingly, that convex hull coincides with the Newton polytope of the partition function as a polynomial in energy parameters. We demonstrated the application of our theory to a simple energy model consisting of a weighted count of A-U and C-G base pairs. Our results show that this simple energy model satisfies the necessary condition for less than one third of the input unpseudoknotted sequence-structure pairs chosen from the RNA STRAND v2.0 database. For another one third, the necessary condition is barely violated, which suggests that augmenting this simple energy model with more features such as the Turner loops may solve the problem. The necessary condition is severely violated for 8%, which provides a small set of hard cases that require further investigation.


Linear Bandits in High Dimension and Recommendation Systems

A large number of online services provide automated recommendations to help users to navigate through a large collection of items. New items (products, videos, songs, advertisements) are suggested on the basis of the user's past history and --when available-- her demographic profile. Recommendations have to satisfy the dual goal of helping the user to explore the space of available items, while allowing the system to probe the user's preferences. We model this trade-off using linearly parametrized multi-armed bandits, propose a policy and prove upper and lower bounds on the cumulative "reward" that coincide up to constants in the data poor (high-dimensional) regime. Prior work on linear bandits has focused on the data rich (low-dimensional) regime and used cumulative "risk" as the figure of merit. For this data rich regime, we provide a simple modification for our policy that achieves near-optimal risk performance under more restrictive assumptions on the geometry of the problem. We test (a variation of) the scheme used for establishing achievability on the Netflix and MovieLens datasets and obtain good agreement with the qualitative predictions of the theory we develop.


Risk-Aversion in Multi-armed Bandits

Stochastic multi-armed bandits solve the Exploration-Exploitation dilemma and ultimately maximize the expected reward. Nonetheless, in many practical problems, maximizing the expected reward is not the most desirable objective. In this paper, we introduce a novel setting based on the principle of risk-aversion where the objective is to compete against the arm with the best risk-return trade-off. This setting proves to be intrinsically more difficult than the standard multi-arm bandit setting due in part to an exploration risk which introduces a regret associated to the variability of an algorithm. Using variance as a measure of risk, we introduce two new algorithms, investigate their theoretical guarantees, and report preliminary empirical results.


Bayesian Optimization in a Billion Dimensions via Random Embeddings

Bayesian optimization techniques have been successfully applied to robotics, planning, sensor placement, recommendation, advertising, intelligent user interfaces and automatic algorithm configuration. Despite these successes, the approach is restricted to problems of moderate dimension, and several workshops on Bayesian optimization have identified its scaling to high-dimensions as one of the holy grails of the field. In this paper, we introduce a novel random embedding idea to attack this problem. The resulting Random EMbedding Bayesian Optimization (REMBO) algorithm is very simple, has important invariance properties, and applies to domains with both categorical and continuous variables. We present a thorough theoretical analysis of REMBO. Empirical results confirm that REMBO can effectively solve problems with billions of dimensions, provided the intrinsic dimensionality is low. They also show that REMBO achieves state-of-the-art performance in optimizing the 47 discrete parameters of a popular mixed integer linear programming solver.


Error Correction in Learning using SVMs

This paper is concerned with learning binary classifiers under adversarial label-noise. We introduce the problem of error-correction in learning where the goal is to recover the original clean data from a label-manipulated version of it, given (i) no constraints on the adversary other than an upper-bound on the number of errors, and (ii) some regularity properties for the original data. We present a simple and practical error-correction algorithm called SubSVMs that learns individual SVMs on several small-size (log-size), class-balanced, random subsets of the data and then reclassifies the training points using a majority vote. Our analysis reveals the need for the two main ingredients of SubSVMs, namely class-balanced sampling and subsampled bagging. Experimental results on synthetic as well as benchmark UCI data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. In addition to noise-tolerance, log-size subsampled bagging also yields significant run-time benefits over standard SVMs.


Heteroscedastic Relevance Vector Machine

In this work we propose a heteroscedastic generalization to RVM, a fast Bayesian framework for regression, based on some recent similar works. We use variational approximation and expectation propagation to tackle the problem. The work is still under progress and we are examining the results and comparing with the previous works.


Training Effective Node Classifiers for Cascade Classification

Cascade classifiers are widely used in real-time object detection. Different from conventional classifiers that are designed for a low overall classification error rate, a classifier in each node of the cascade is required to achieve an extremely high detection rate and moderate false positive rate. Although there are a few reported methods addressing this requirement in the context of object detection, there is no principled feature selection method that explicitly takes into account this asymmetric node learning objective. We provide such an algorithm here. We show that a special case of the biased minimax probability machine has the same formulation as the linear asymmetric classifier (LAC) of Wu et al (2005). We then design a new boosting algorithm that directly optimizes the cost function of LAC. The resulting totally-corrective boosting algorithm is implemented by the column generation technique in convex optimization. Experimental results on object detection verify the effectiveness of the proposed boosting algorithm as a node classifier in cascade object detection, and show performance better than that of the current state-of-the-art.


Domain Generalization via Invariant Feature Representation

This paper investigates domain generalization: How to take knowledge acquired from an arbitrary number of related domains and apply it to previously unseen domains? We propose Domain-Invariant Component Analysis (DICA), a kernel-based optimization algorithm that learns an invariant transformation by minimizing the dissimilarity across domains, whilst preserving the functional relationship between input and output variables. A learning-theoretic analysis shows that reducing dissimilarity improves the expected generalization ability of classifiers on new domains, motivating the proposed algorithm. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that DICA successfully learns invariant features and improves classifier performance in practice.


Network-based clustering with mixtures of L1-penalized Gaussian graphical models: an empirical investigation

In many applications, multivariate samples may harbor previously unrecognized heterogeneity at the level of conditional independence or network structure. For example, in cancer biology, disease subtypes may differ with respect to subtype-specific interplay between molecular components. Then, both subtype discovery and estimation of subtype-specific networks present important and related challenges. To enable such analyses, we put forward a mixture model whose components are sparse Gaussian graphical models. This brings together model-based clustering and graphical modeling to permit simultaneous estimation of cluster assignments and cluster-specific networks. We carry out estimation within an L1-penalized framework, and investigate several specific penalization regimes. We present empirical results on simulated data and provide general recommendations for the formulation and use of mixtures of L1-penalized Gaussian graphical models.


Conditions Under Which Conditional Independence and Scoring Methods Lead to Identical Selection of Bayesian Network Models

It is often stated in papers tackling the task of inferring Bayesian network structures from data that there are these two distinct approaches: (i) Apply conditional independence tests when testing for the presence or otherwise of edges; (ii) Search the model space using a scoring metric. Here I argue that for complete data and a given node ordering this division is a myth, by showing that cross entropy methods for checking conditional independence are mathematically identical to methods based upon discriminating between models by their overall goodness-of-fit logarithmic scores.


Variational MCMC

We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly because this approximation tends to underestimate the true variance and other features of the data. We solve this problem by introducing more sophisticated MCMC algorithms. One of these algorithms is a mixture of two MCMC kernels: a random walk Metropolis kernel and a blockMetropolis-Hastings (MH) kernel with a variational approximation as proposaldistribution. The MH kernel allows one to locate regions of high probability efficiently. The Metropolis kernel allows us to explore the vicinity of these regions. This algorithm outperforms variationalapproximations because it yields slightly better estimates of the mean and considerably better estimates of higher moments, such as covariances. It also outperforms standard MCMC algorithms because it locates theregions of high probability quickly, thus speeding up convergence. We demonstrate this algorithm on the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for logistic (sigmoid) belief networks.


Incorporating Expressive Graphical Models in Variational Approximations: Chain-Graphs and Hidden Variables

Global variational approximation methods in graphical models allow efficient approximate inference of complex posterior distributions by using a simpler model. The choice of the approximating model determines a tradeoff between the complexity of the approximation procedure and the quality of the approximation. In this paper, we consider variational approximations based on two classes of models that are richer than standard Bayesian networks, Markov networks or mixture models. As such, these classes allow to find better tradeoffs in the spectrum of approximations. The first class of models are chain graphs, which capture distributions that are partially directed. The second class of models are directed graphs (Bayesian networks) with additional latent variables. Both classes allow representation of multi-variable dependencies that cannot be easily represented within a Bayesian network.


Learning the Dimensionality of Hidden Variables

A serious problem in learning probabilistic models is the presence of hidden variables. These variables are not observed, yet interact with several of the observed variables. Detecting hidden variables poses two problems: determining the relations to other variables in the model and determining the number of states of the hidden variable. In this paper, we address the latter problem in the context of Bayesian networks. We describe an approach that utilizes a score-based agglomerative state-clustering. As we show, this approach allows us to efficiently evaluate models with a range of cardinalities for the hidden variable. We show how to extend this procedure to deal with multiple interacting hidden variables. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by evaluating it on synthetic and real-life data. We show that our approach learns models with hidden variables that generalize better and have better structure than previous approaches.


Multivariate Information Bottleneck

The Information bottleneck method is an unsupervised non-parametric data organization technique. Given a joint distribution P(A,B), this method constructs a new variable T that extracts partitions, or clusters, over the values of A that are informative about B. The information bottleneck has already been applied to document classification, gene expression, neural code, and spectral analysis. In this paper, we introduce a general principled framework for multivariate extensions of the information bottleneck method. This allows us to consider multiple systems of data partitions that are inter-related. Our approach utilizes Bayesian networks for specifying the systems of clusters and what information each captures. We show that this construction provides insight about bottleneck variations and enables us to characterize solutions of these variations. We also present a general framework for iterative algorithms for constructing solutions, and apply it to several examples.


Discovering Multiple Constraints that are Frequently Approximately Satisfied

Some high-dimensional data.sets can be modelled by assuming that there are many different linear constraints, each of which is Frequently Approximately Satisfied (FAS) by the data. The probability of a data vector under the model is then proportional to the product of the probabilities of its constraint violations. We describe three methods of learning products of constraints using a heavy-tailed probability distribution for the violations.


Estimating Well-Performing Bayesian Networks using Bernoulli Mixtures

A novel method for estimating Bayesian network (BN) parameters from data is presented which provides improved performance on test data. Previous research has shown the value of representing conditional probability distributions (CPDs) via neural networks(Neal 1992), noisy-OR gates (Neal 1992, Diez 1993)and decision trees (Friedman and Goldszmidt 1996).The Bernoulli mixture network (BMN) explicitly represents the CPDs of discrete BN nodes as mixtures of local distributions,each having a different set of parents.This increases the space of possible structures which can be considered,enabling the CPDs to have finer-grained dependencies.The resulting estimation procedure induces a modelthat is better able to emulate the underlying interactions occurring in the data than conventional conditional Bernoulli network models.The results for artificially generated data indicate that overfitting is best reduced by restricting the complexity of candidate mixture substructures local to each node. Furthermore, mixtures of very simple substructures can perform almost as well as more complex ones.The BMN is also applied to data collected from an online adventure game with an application to keyhole plan recognition. The results show that the BMN-based model brings a dramatic improvement in performance over a conventional BN model.


Improved learning of Bayesian networks

The search space of Bayesian Network structures is usually defined as Acyclic Directed Graphs (DAGs) and the search is done by local transformations of DAGs. But the space of Bayesian Networks is ordered by DAG Markov model inclusion and it is natural to consider that a good search policy should take this into account. First attempt to do this (Chickering 1996) was using equivalence classes of DAGs instead of DAGs itself. This approach produces better results but it is significantly slower. We present a compromise between these two approaches. It uses DAGs to search the space in such a way that the ordering by inclusion is taken into account. This is achieved by repetitive usage of local moves within the equivalence class of DAGs. We show that this new approach produces better results than the original DAGs approach without substantial change in time complexity. We present empirical results, within the framework of heuristic search and Markov Chain Monte Carlo, provided through the Alarm dataset.


Classifier Learning with Supervised Marginal Likelihood

It has been argued that in supervised classification tasks, in practice it may be more sensible to perform model selection with respect to some more focused model selection score, like the supervised (conditional) marginal likelihood, than with respect to the standard marginal likelihood criterion. However, for most Bayesian network models, computing the supervised marginal likelihood score takes exponential time with respect to the amount of observed data. In this paper, we consider diagnostic Bayesian network classifiers where the significant model parameters represent conditional distributions for the class variable, given the values of the predictor variables, in which case the supervised marginal likelihood can be computed in linear time with respect to the data. As the number of model parameters grows in this case exponentially with respect to the number of predictors, we focus on simple diagnostic models where the number of relevant predictors is small, and suggest two approaches for applying this type of models in classification. The first approach is based on mixtures of simple diagnostic models, while in the second approach we apply the small predictor sets of the simple diagnostic models for augmenting the Naive Bayes classifier.


Iterative Markov Chain Monte Carlo Computation of Reference Priors and Minimax Risk

We present an iterative Markov chainMonte Carlo algorithm for computingreference priors and minimax risk forgeneral parametric families. Ourapproach uses MCMC techniques based onthe Blahut-Arimoto algorithm forcomputing channel capacity ininformation theory. We give astatistical analysis of the algorithm,bounding the number of samples requiredfor the stochastic algorithm to closelyapproximate the deterministic algorithmin each iteration. Simulations arepresented for several examples fromexponential families. Although we focuson applications to reference priors andminimax risk, the methods and analysiswe develop are applicable to a muchbroader class of optimization problemsand iterative algorithms.


A Bayesian Multiresolution Independence Test for Continuous Variables

In this paper we present a method ofcomputing the posterior probability ofconditional independence of two or morecontinuous variables from data,examined at several resolutions. Ourapproach is motivated by theobservation that the appearance ofcontinuous data varies widely atvarious resolutions, producing verydifferent independence estimatesbetween the variablesinvolved. Therefore, it is difficultto ascertain independence withoutexamining data at several carefullyselected resolutions. In our paper, weaccomplish this using the exactcomputation of the posteriorprobability of independence, calculatedanalytically given a resolution. Ateach examined resolution, we assume amultinomial distribution with Dirichletpriors for the discretized tableparameters, and compute the posteriorusing Bayesian integration. Acrossresolutions, we use a search procedureto approximate the Bayesian integral ofprobability over an exponential numberof possible histograms. Our methodgeneralizes to an arbitrary numbervariables in a straightforward manner.The test is suitable for Bayesiannetwork learning algorithms that useindependence tests to infer the networkstructure, in domains that contain anymix of continuous, ordinal andcategorical variables.


Expectation Propagation for approximate Bayesian inference

This paper presents a new deterministic approximation technique in Bayesian networks. This method, "Expectation Propagation", unifies two previous techniques: assumed-density filtering, an extension of the Kalman filter, and loopy belief propagation, an extension of belief propagation in Bayesian networks. All three algorithms try to recover an approximate distribution which is close in KL divergence to the true distribution. Loopy belief propagation, because it propagates exact belief states, is useful for a limited class of belief networks, such as those which are purely discrete. Expectation Propagation approximates the belief states by only retaining certain expectations, such as mean and variance, and iterates until these expectations are consistent throughout the network. This makes it applicable to hybrid networks with discrete and continuous nodes. Expectation Propagation also extends belief propagation in the opposite direction - it can propagate richer belief states that incorporate correlations between nodes. Experiments with Gaussian mixture models show Expectation Propagation to be convincingly better than methods with similar computational cost: Laplace's method, variational Bayes, and Monte Carlo. Expectation Propagation also provides an efficient algorithm for training Bayes point machine classifiers.


Probabilistic Models for Unified Collaborative and Content-Based Recommendation in Sparse-Data Environments

Recommender systems leverage product and community information to target products to consumers. Researchers have developed collaborative recommenders, content-based recommenders, and (largely ad-hoc) hybrid systems. We propose a unified probabilistic framework for merging collaborative and content-based recommendations. We extend Hofmann's [1999] aspect model to incorporate three-way co-occurrence data among users, items, and item content. The relative influence of collaboration data versus content data is not imposed as an exogenous parameter, but rather emerges naturally from the given data sources. Global probabilistic models coupled with standard Expectation Maximization (EM) learning algorithms tend to drastically overfit in sparse-data situations, as is typical in recommendation applications. We show that secondary content information can often be used to overcome sparsity. Experiments on data from the ResearchIndex library of Computer Science publications show that appropriate mixture models incorporating secondary data produce significantly better quality recommenders than k-nearest neighbors (k-NN). Global probabilistic models also allow more general inferences than local methods like k-NN.


Symmetric Collaborative Filtering Using the Noisy Sensor Model

Collaborative filtering is the process of making recommendations regarding the potential preference of a user, for example shopping on the Internet, based on the preference ratings of the user and a number of other users for various items. This paper considers collaborative filtering based on explicitmulti-valued ratings. To evaluate the algorithms, weconsider only {em pure} collaborative filtering, using ratings exclusively, and no other information about the people or items.Our approach is to predict a user's preferences regarding a particularitem by using other people who rated that item and other items ratedby the user as noisy sensors. The noisy sensor model uses Bayes' theorem to compute the probability distribution for the user'srating of a new item. We give two variant models: in one, we learn a{em classical normal linear regression} model of how users rate items; in another,we assume different users rate items the same, but the accuracy of thesensors needs to be learned. We compare these variant models withstate-of-the-art techniques and show how they are significantly better,whether a user has rated only two items or many. We reportempirical results using the EachMovie database footnote{http://research.compaq.com/SRC/eachmovie/} of movie ratings. Wealso show that by considering items similarity along with theusers similarity, the accuracy of the prediction increases.


Policy Improvement for POMDPs Using Normalized Importance Sampling

We present a new method for estimating the expected return of a POMDP from experience. The method does not assume any knowledge of the POMDP and allows the experience to be gathered from an arbitrary sequence of policies. The return is estimated for any new policy of the POMDP. We motivate the estimator from function-approximation and importance sampling points-of-view and derive its theoretical properties. Although the estimator is biased, it has low variance and the bias is often irrelevant when the estimator is used for pair-wise comparisons. We conclude by extending the estimator to policies with memory and compare its performance in a greedy search algorithm to REINFORCE algorithms showing an order of magnitude reduction in the number of trials required.


Maximum Likelihood Bounded Tree-Width Markov Networks

Chow and Liu (1968) studied the problem of learning a maximumlikelihood Markov tree. We generalize their work to more complexMarkov networks by considering the problem of learning a maximumlikelihood Markov network of bounded complexity. We discuss howtree-width is in many ways the appropriate measure of complexity andthus analyze the problem of learning a maximum likelihood Markovnetwork of bounded tree-width.Similar to the work of Chow and Liu, we are able to formalize thelearning problem as a combinatorial optimization problem on graphs. Weshow that learning a maximum likelihood Markov network of boundedtree-width is equivalent to finding a maximum weight hypertree. Thisequivalence gives rise to global, integer-programming based,approximation algorithms with provable performance guarantees, for thelearning problem. This contrasts with heuristic local-searchalgorithms which were previously suggested (e.g. by Malvestuto 1991).The equivalence also allows us to study the computational hardness ofthe learning problem. We show that learning a maximum likelihoodMarkov network of bounded tree-width is NP-hard, and discuss thehardness of approximation.


The Optimal Reward Baseline for Gradient-Based Reinforcement Learning

There exist a number of reinforcement learning algorithms which learnby climbing the gradient of expected reward. Their long-runconvergence has been proved, even in partially observableenvironments with non-deterministic actions, and without the need fora system model. However, the variance of the gradient estimator hasbeen found to be a significant practical problem. Recent approacheshave discounted future rewards, introducing a bias-variance trade-offinto the gradient estimate. We incorporate a reward baseline into thelearning system, and show that it affects variance without introducingfurther bias. In particular, as we approach the zero-bias,high-variance parameterization, the optimal (or variance minimizing)constant reward baseline is equal to the long-term average expectedreward. Modified policy-gradient algorithms are presented, and anumber of experiments demonstrate their improvement over previous work.


Cross-covariance modelling via DAGs with hidden variables

DAG models with hidden variables present many difficulties that are not present when all nodes are observed. In particular, fully observed DAG models are identified and correspond to well-defined sets ofdistributions, whereas this is not true if nodes are unobserved. Inthis paper we characterize exactly the set of distributions given by a class of one-dimensional Gaussian latent variable models. These models relate two blocks of observed variables, modeling only the cross-covariance matrix. We describe the relation of this model to the singular value decomposition of the cross-covariance matrix. We show that, although the model is underidentified, useful information may be extracted. We further consider an alternative parametrization in which one latent variable is associated with each block. Our analysis leads to some novel covariance equivalence results for Gaussian hidden variable models.


Belief Optimization for Binary Networks: A Stable Alternative to Loopy Belief Propagation

We present a novel inference algorithm for arbitrary, binary, undirected graphs. Unlike loopy belief propagation, which iterates fixed point equations, we directly descend on the Bethe free energy. The algorithm consists of two phases, first we update the pairwise probabilities, given the marginal probabilities at each unit,using an analytic expression. Next, we update the marginal probabilities, given the pairwise probabilities by following the negative gradient of the Bethe free energy. Both steps are guaranteed to decrease the Bethe free energy, and since it is lower bounded, the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to a local minimum. We also show that the Bethe free energy is equal to the TAP free energy up to second order in the weights. In experiments we confirm that when belief propagation converges it usually finds identical solutions as our belief optimization method. However, in cases where belief propagation fails to converge, belief optimization continues to converge to reasonable beliefs. The stable nature of belief optimization makes it ideally suited for learning graphical models from data.


Statistical Modeling in Continuous Speech Recognition (CSR)(Invited Talk)

Automatic continuous speech recognition (CSR) is sufficiently mature that a variety of real world applications are now possible including large vocabulary transcription and interactive spoken dialogues. This paper reviews the evolution of the statistical modelling techniques which underlie current-day systems, specifically hidden Markov models (HMMs) and N-grams. Starting from a description of the speech signal and its parameterisation, the various modelling assumptions and their consequences are discussed. It then describes various techniques by which the effects of these assumptions can be mitigated. Despite the progress that has been made, the limitations of current modelling techniques are still evident. The paper therefore concludes with a brief review of some of the more fundamental modelling work now in progress.


Using Temporal Data for Making Recommendations

We treat collaborative filtering as a univariate time series estimation problem: given a user's previous votes, predict the next vote. We describe two families of methods for transforming data to encode time order in ways amenable to off-the-shelf classification and density estimation tools, and examine the results of using these approaches on several real-world data sets. The improvements in predictive accuracy we realize recommend the use of other predictive algorithms that exploit the temporal order of data.


Planning by Prioritized Sweeping with Small Backups

Efficient planning plays a crucial role in model-based reinforcement learning. Traditionally, the main planning operation is a full backup based on the current estimates of the successor states. Consequently, its computation time is proportional to the number of successor states. In this paper, we introduce a new planning backup that uses only the current value of a single successor state and has a computation time independent of the number of successor states. This new backup, which we call a small backup, opens the door to a new class of model-based reinforcement learning methods that exhibit much finer control over their planning process than traditional methods. We empirically demonstrate that this increased flexibility allows for more efficient planning by showing that an implementation of prioritized sweeping based on small backups achieves a substantial performance improvement over classical implementations.


Robust subspace clustering

Subspace clustering refers to the task of finding a multi-subspace representation that best fits a collection of points taken from a high-dimensional space. This paper introduces an algorithm inspired by sparse subspace clustering (SSC) [In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, CVPR (2009) 2790-2797] to cluster noisy data, and develops some novel theory demonstrating its correctness. In particular, the theory uses ideas from geometric functional analysis to show that the algorithm can accurately recover the underlying subspaces under minimal requirements on their orientation, and on the number of samples per subspace. Synthetic as well as real data experiments complement our theoretical study, illustrating our approach and demonstrating its effectiveness.


Learning to Optimize Via Posterior Sampling

This paper considers the use of a simple posterior sampling algorithm to balance between exploration and exploitation when learning to optimize actions such as in multi-armed bandit problems. The algorithm, also known as Thompson Sampling, offers significant advantages over the popular upper confidence bound (UCB) approach, and can be applied to problems with finite or infinite action spaces and complicated relationships among action rewards. We make two theoretical contributions. The first establishes a connection between posterior sampling and UCB algorithms. This result lets us convert regret bounds developed for UCB algorithms into Bayesian regret bounds for posterior sampling. Our second theoretical contribution is a Bayesian regret bound for posterior sampling that applies broadly and can be specialized to many model classes. This bound depends on a new notion we refer to as the eluder dimension, which measures the degree of dependence among action rewards. Compared to UCB algorithm Bayesian regret bounds for specific model classes, our general bound matches the best available for linear models and is stronger than the best available for generalized linear models. Further, our analysis provides insight into performance advantages of posterior sampling, which are highlighted through simulation results that demonstrate performance surpassing recently proposed UCB algorithms.


Robust Text Detection in Natural Scene Images

Text detection in natural scene images is an important prerequisite for many content-based image analysis tasks. In this paper, we propose an accurate and robust method for detecting texts in natural scene images. A fast and effective pruning algorithm is designed to extract Maximally Stable Extremal Regions (MSERs) as character candidates using the strategy of minimizing regularized variations. Character candidates are grouped into text candidates by the ingle-link clustering algorithm, where distance weights and threshold of the clustering algorithm are learned automatically by a novel self-training distance metric learning algorithm. The posterior probabilities of text candidates corresponding to non-text are estimated with an character classifier; text candidates with high probabilities are then eliminated and finally texts are identified with a text classifier. The proposed system is evaluated on the ICDAR 2011 Robust Reading Competition dataset; the f measure is over 76% and is significantly better than the state-of-the-art performance of 71%. Experimental results on a publicly available multilingual dataset also show that our proposed method can outperform the other competitive method with the f measure increase of over 9 percent. Finally, we have setup an online demo of our proposed scene text detection system at http://kems.ustb.edu.cn/learning/yin/dtext.


Functional Regularized Least Squares Classi cation with Operator-valued Kernels

Although operator-valued kernels have recently received increasing interest in various machine learning and functional data analysis problems such as multi-task learning or functional regression, little attention has been paid to the understanding of their associated feature spaces. In this paper, we explore the potential of adopting an operator-valued kernel feature space perspective for the analysis of functional data. We then extend the Regularized Least Squares Classification (RLSC) algorithm to cover situations where there are multiple functions per observation. Experiments on a sound recognition problem show that the proposed method outperforms the classical RLSC algorithm.


Multiple functional regression with both discrete and continuous covariates

In this paper we present a nonparametric method for extending functional regression methodology to the situation where more than one functional covariate is used to predict a functional response. Borrowing the idea from Kadri et al. (2010a), the method, which support mixed discrete and continuous explanatory variables, is based on estimating a function-valued function in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces by virtue of positive operator-valued kernels.


A Triclustering Approach for Time Evolving Graphs

This paper introduces a novel technique to track structures in time evolving graphs. The method is based on a parameter free approach for three-dimensional co-clustering of the source vertices, the target vertices and the time. All these features are simultaneously segmented in order to build time segments and clusters of vertices whose edge distributions are similar and evolve in the same way over the time segments. The main novelty of this approach lies in that the time segments are directly inferred from the evolution of the edge distribution between the vertices, thus not requiring the user to make an a priori discretization. Experiments conducted on a synthetic dataset illustrate the good behaviour of the technique, and a study of a real-life dataset shows the potential of the proposed approach for exploratory data analysis.


BliStr: The Blind Strategymaker

BliStr is a system that automatically develops strategies for E prover on a large set of problems. The main idea is to interleave (i) iterated low-timelimit local search for new strategies on small sets of similar easy problems with (ii) higher-timelimit evaluation of the new strategies on all problems. The accumulated results of the global higher-timelimit runs are used to define and evolve the notion of "similar easy problems", and to control the selection of the next strategy to be improved. The technique was used to significantly strengthen the set of E strategies used by the MaLARea, PS-E, E-MaLeS, and E systems in the CASC@Turing 2012 competition, particularly in the Mizar division. Similar improvement was obtained on the problems created from the Flyspeck corpus.


Robust High Dimensional Sparse Regression and Matching Pursuit

We consider high dimensional sparse regression, and develop strategies able to deal with arbitrary -- possibly, severe or coordinated -- errors in the covariance matrix $X$. These may come from corrupted data, persistent experimental errors, or malicious respondents in surveys/recommender systems, etc. Such non-stochastic error-in-variables problems are notoriously difficult to treat, and as we demonstrate, the problem is particularly pronounced in high-dimensional settings where the primary goal is {\em support recovery} of the sparse regressor. We develop algorithms for support recovery in sparse regression, when some number $n_1$ out of $n+n_1$ total covariate/response pairs are {\it arbitrarily (possibly maliciously) corrupted}. We are interested in understanding how many outliers, $n_1$, we can tolerate, while identifying the correct support. To the best of our knowledge, neither standard outlier rejection techniques, nor recently developed robust regression algorithms (that focus only on corrupted response variables), nor recent algorithms for dealing with stochastic noise or erasures, can provide guarantees on support recovery. Perhaps surprisingly, we also show that the natural brute force algorithm that searches over all subsets of $n$ covariate/response pairs, and all subsets of possible support coordinates in order to minimize regression error, is remarkably poor, unable to correctly identify the support with even $n_1 = O(n/k)$ corrupted points, where $k$ is the sparsity. This is true even in the basic setting we consider, where all authentic measurements and noise are independent and sub-Gaussian. In this setting, we provide a simple algorithm -- no more computationally taxing than OMP -- that gives stronger performance guarantees, recovering the support with up to $n_1 = O(n/(\sqrt{k} \log p))$ corrupted points, where $p$ is the dimension of the signal to be recovered.


A comparison of SVM and RVM for Document Classification

Document classification is a task of assigning a new unclassified document to one of the predefined set of classes. The content based document classification uses the content of the document with some weighting criteria to assign it to one of the predefined classes. It is a major task in library science, electronic document management systems and information sciences. This paper investigates document classification by using two different classification techniques (1) Support Vector Machine (SVM) and (2) Relevance Vector Machine (RVM). SVM is a supervised machine learning technique that can be used for classification task. In its basic form, SVM represents the instances of the data into space and tries to separate the distinct classes by a maximum possible wide gap (hyper plane) that separates the classes. On the other hand RVM uses probabilistic measure to define this separation space. RVM uses Bayesian inference to obtain succinct solution, thus RVM uses significantly fewer basis functions. Experimental studies on three standard text classification datasets reveal that although RVM takes more training time, its classification is much better as compared to SVM.


Unsupervised Feature Learning for low-level Local Image Descriptors

Unsupervised feature learning has shown impressive results for a wide range of input modalities, in particular for object classification tasks in computer vision. Using a large amount of unlabeled data, unsupervised feature learning methods are utilized to construct high-level representations that are discriminative enough for subsequently trained supervised classification algorithms. However, it has never been \emph{quantitatively} investigated yet how well unsupervised learning methods can find \emph{low-level representations} for image patches without any additional supervision. In this paper we examine the performance of pure unsupervised methods on a low-level correspondence task, a problem that is central to many Computer Vision applications. We find that a special type of Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) performs comparably to hand-crafted descriptors. Additionally, a simple binarization scheme produces compact representations that perform better than several state-of-the-art descriptors.


Matrix Approximation under Local Low-Rank Assumption

Matrix approximation is a common tool in machine learning for building accurate prediction models for recommendation systems, text mining, and computer vision. A prevalent assumption in constructing matrix approximations is that the partially observed matrix is of low-rank. We propose a new matrix approximation model where we assume instead that the matrix is only locally of low-rank, leading to a representation of the observed matrix as a weighted sum of low-rank matrices. We analyze the accuracy of the proposed local low-rank modeling. Our experiments show improvements in prediction accuracy in recommendation tasks.


Learning Graphical Model Parameters with Approximate Marginal Inference

Likelihood based-learning of graphical models faces challenges of computational-complexity and robustness to model mis-specification. This paper studies methods that fit parameters directly to maximize a measure of the accuracy of predicted marginals, taking into account both model and inference approximations at training time. Experiments on imaging problems suggest marginalization-based learning performs better than likelihood-based approximations on difficult problems where the model being fit is approximate in nature.


Efficient Learning of Domain-invariant Image Representations

We present an algorithm that learns representations which explicitly compensate for domain mismatch and which can be efficiently realized as linear classifiers. Specifically, we form a linear transformation that maps features from the target (test) domain to the source (training) domain as part of training the classifier. We optimize both the transformation and classifier parameters jointly, and introduce an efficient cost function based on misclassification loss. Our method combines several features previously unavailable in a single algorithm: multi-class adaptation through representation learning, ability to map across heterogeneous feature spaces, and scalability to large datasets. We present experiments on several image datasets that demonstrate improved accuracy and computational advantages compared to previous approaches.


The Expressive Power of Word Embeddings

We seek to better understand the difference in quality of the several publicly released embeddings. We propose several tasks that help to distinguish the characteristics of different embeddings. Our evaluation of sentiment polarity and synonym/antonym relations shows that embeddings are able to capture surprisingly nuanced semantics even in the absence of sentence structure. Moreover, benchmarking the embeddings shows great variance in quality and characteristics of the semantics captured by the tested embeddings. Finally, we show the impact of varying the number of dimensions and the resolution of each dimension on the effective useful features captured by the embedding space. Our contributions highlight the importance of embeddings for NLP tasks and the effect of their quality on the final results.


Auto-pooling: Learning to Improve Invariance of Image Features from Image Sequences

Learning invariant representations from images is one of the hardest challenges facing computer vision. Spatial pooling is widely used to create invariance to spatial shifting, but it is restricted to convolutional models. In this paper, we propose a novel pooling method that can learn soft clustering of features from image sequences. It is trained to improve the temporal coherence of features, while keeping the information loss at minimum. Our method does not use spatial information, so it can be used with non-convolutional models too. Experiments on images extracted from natural videos showed that our method can cluster similar features together. When trained by convolutional features, auto-pooling outperformed traditional spatial pooling on an image classification task, even though it does not use the spatial topology of features.


Barnes-Hut-SNE

The paper presents an O(N log N)-implementation of t-SNE -- an embedding technique that is commonly used for the visualization of high-dimensional data in scatter plots and that normally runs in O(N^2). The new implementation uses vantage-point trees to compute sparse pairwise similarities between the input data objects, and it uses a variant of the Barnes-Hut algorithm - an algorithm used by astronomers to perform N-body simulations - to approximate the forces between the corresponding points in the embedding. Our experiments show that the new algorithm, called Barnes-Hut-SNE, leads to substantial computational advantages over standard t-SNE, and that it makes it possible to learn embeddings of data sets with millions of objects.


Multi-agent learning using Fictitious Play and Extended Kalman Filter

Decentralised optimisation tasks are important components of multi-agent systems. These tasks can be interpreted as n-player potential games: therefore game-theoretic learning algorithms can be used to solve decentralised optimisation tasks. Fictitious play is the canonical example of these algorithms. Nevertheless fictitious play implicitly assumes that players have stationary strategies. We present a novel variant of fictitious play where players predict their opponents' strategies using Extended Kalman filters and use their predictions to update their strategies. We show that in 2 by 2 games with at least one pure Nash equilibrium and in potential games where players have two available actions, the proposed algorithm converges to the pure Nash equilibrium. The performance of the proposed algorithm was empirically tested, in two strategic form games and an ad-hoc sensor network surveillance problem. The proposed algorithm performs better than the classic fictitious play algorithm in these games and therefore improves the performance of game-theoretical learning in decentralised optimisation.


The Diagonalized Newton Algorithm for Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) has become a popular machine learning approach to many problems in text mining, speech and image processing, bio-informatics and seismic data analysis to name a few. In NMF, a matrix of non-negative data is approximated by the low-rank product of two matrices with non-negative entries. In this paper, the approximation quality is measured by the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the data and its low-rank reconstruction. The existence of the simple multiplicative update (MU) algorithm for computing the matrix factors has contributed to the success of NMF. Despite the availability of algorithms showing faster convergence, MU remains popular due to its simplicity. In this paper, a diagonalized Newton algorithm (DNA) is proposed showing faster convergence while the implementation remains simple and suitable for high-rank problems. The DNA algorithm is applied to various publicly available data sets, showing a substantial speed-up on modern hardware.


Feature grouping from spatially constrained multiplicative interaction

We present a feature learning model that learns to encode relationships between images. The model is defined as a Gated Boltzmann Machine, which is constrained such that hidden units that are nearby in space can gate each other's connections. We show how frequency/orientation "columns" as well as topographic filter maps follow naturally from training the model on image pairs. The model also helps explain why square-pooling models yield feature groups with similar grouping properties. Experimental results on synthetic image transformations show that spatially constrained gating is an effective way to reduce the number of parameters and thereby to regularize a transformation-learning model.


Factorized Topic Models

In this paper we present a modification to a latent topic model, which makes the model exploit supervision to produce a factorized representation of the observed data. The structured parameterization separately encodes variance that is shared between classes from variance that is private to each class by the introduction of a new prior over the topic space. The approach allows for a more eff{}icient inference and provides an intuitive interpretation of the data in terms of an informative signal together with structured noise. The factorized representation is shown to enhance inference performance for image, text, and video classification.


Boltzmann Machines and Denoising Autoencoders for Image Denoising

Image denoising based on a probabilistic model of local image patches has been employed by various researchers, and recently a deep (denoising) autoencoder has been proposed by Burger et al. [2012] and Xie et al. [2012] as a good model for this. In this paper, we propose that another popular family of models in the field of deep learning, called Boltzmann machines, can perform image denoising as well as, or in certain cases of high level of noise, better than denoising autoencoders. We empirically evaluate the two models on three different sets of images with different types and levels of noise. Throughout the experiments we also examine the effect of the depth of the models. The experiments confirmed our claim and revealed that the performance can be improved by adding more hidden layers, especially when the level of noise is high.