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tinycast
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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>tinycast — do you need a transformer to forecast?</title>
<style>
  :root {
    color-scheme: light;
    --surface: #fcfcfb; --plane: #f9f9f7;
    --ink: #0b0b0b; --ink-2: #52514e; --muted: #898781;
    --grid: #e1e0d9; --axis: #c3c2b7; --ring: rgba(11,11,11,.10);
    --s1: #2a78d6; --s2: #eb6834; --s3: #1baf7a; --s4: #eda100; --s5: #e87ba4; --s6: #008300;
  }
  @media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) {
    :root:not([data-theme="light"]) {
      color-scheme: dark;
      --surface: #1a1a19; --plane: #0d0d0d;
      --ink: #ffffff; --ink-2: #c3c2b7; --muted: #898781;
      --grid: #2c2c2a; --axis: #383835; --ring: rgba(255,255,255,.10);
      --s1: #3987e5; --s2: #d95926; --s3: #199e70; --s4: #c98500; --s5: #d55181; --s6: #008300;
    }
  }
  * { box-sizing: border-box; }
  body {
    margin: 0; background: var(--plane); color: var(--ink);
    font: 15px/1.5 system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", sans-serif;
  }
  .wrap { max-width: 980px; margin: 0 auto; padding: 28px 20px 48px; }
  header h1 { margin: 0; font-size: 26px; letter-spacing: -0.02em; }
  header h1 .accent { color: var(--s1); }
  header p.tag { margin: 6px 0 0; color: var(--ink-2); max-width: 64ch; }
  .card {
    background: var(--surface); border: 1px solid var(--ring); border-radius: 12px;
    padding: 16px 18px; margin-top: 18px;
  }
  .controls { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: 14px; align-items: center; }
  .seg { display: inline-flex; border: 1px solid var(--ring); border-radius: 8px; overflow: hidden; }
  .seg button {
    border: 0; background: transparent; color: var(--ink-2); padding: 6px 14px;
    font: inherit; cursor: pointer;
  }
  .seg button.on { background: var(--s1); color: #fff; }
  .controls label { color: var(--ink-2); font-size: 13px; }
  input[type=range] { width: 190px; accent-color: var(--s1); vertical-align: middle; }
  .btn {
    border: 1px solid var(--ring); background: transparent; color: var(--ink);
    border-radius: 8px; padding: 6px 14px; font: inherit; cursor: pointer;
  }
  .btn:hover { border-color: var(--s1); color: var(--s1); }
  .chips { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: 8px; margin-top: 12px; }
  .chip {
    display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: 6px; border: 1px solid var(--ring);
    border-radius: 999px; padding: 3px 12px; font-size: 13px; color: var(--ink-2);
    background: transparent; cursor: pointer;
  }
  .chip .dot { width: 10px; height: 10px; border-radius: 50%; background: var(--c); }
  .chip.off { opacity: .38; }
  .chip.fixed { cursor: default; }
  .chip .dot.dash { border-radius: 1px; height: 3px; }
  #chartbox { position: relative; margin-top: 6px; }
  svg { display: block; width: 100%; height: auto; }
  .tip {
    position: absolute; pointer-events: none; display: none; background: var(--surface);
    border: 1px solid var(--ring); border-radius: 8px; padding: 8px 10px; font-size: 12px;
    box-shadow: 0 4px 14px rgba(0,0,0,.12); min-width: 150px; z-index: 2;
  }
  .tip .row { display: flex; justify-content: space-between; gap: 12px; }
  .tip .row .val { font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; color: var(--ink); }
  .tip .row .name { color: var(--ink-2); }
  .tiles { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(180px, 1fr)); gap: 12px; margin-top: 18px; }
  .tile { background: var(--surface); border: 1px solid var(--ring); border-radius: 12px; padding: 14px 16px; }
  .tile .k { font-size: 12px; color: var(--muted); text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: .05em; }
  .tile .v { font-size: 26px; margin-top: 2px; }
  .tile .s { font-size: 12px; color: var(--ink-2); }
  .tablecard { overflow-x: auto; }
  table { border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; font-size: 13.5px; margin-top: 4px; }
  th, td { text-align: right; padding: 6px 10px; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--grid); font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; }
  th:first-child, td:first-child { text-align: left; }
  th { color: var(--muted); font-weight: 600; }
  td.best { color: var(--s1); font-weight: 700; }
  tr.pub td { color: var(--ink-2); }
  tr.sep td { border-top: 2px solid var(--axis); }
  .note { color: var(--muted); font-size: 12.5px; margin-top: 8px; }
  footer { margin-top: 26px; color: var(--muted); font-size: 13px; }
  footer a { color: var(--s1); text-decoration: none; }
  #err { display: none; margin-top: 18px; border: 1px solid #d03b3b; color: #d03b3b;
         border-radius: 10px; padding: 10px 14px; }
</style>
</head>
<body>
<div class="wrap">
  <header>
    <h1>tiny<span class="accent">cast</span></h1>
    <p class="tag">Do you need a transformer to forecast? Five tiny models — none bigger than
    80k parameters — against the ETTh1 long-horizon benchmark, evaluated exactly like the papers.
    Pick a test window and see for yourself.</p>
  </header>

  <div id="err"></div>

  <div class="card">
    <div class="controls">
      <span class="seg" id="horizon-seg"></span>
      <label>window <input type="range" id="win" min="0" max="100" value="0">
        <span id="winlab" style="font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums"></span></label>
      <button class="btn" id="rand">Try a sample</button>
      <span id="t0" style="color:var(--muted);font-size:13px"></span>
    </div>
    <div class="chips" id="chips"></div>
    <div id="chartbox">
      <svg id="chart" viewBox="0 0 940 400" role="img" aria-label="Forecast chart"></svg>
      <div class="tip" id="tip"></div>
    </div>
    <div class="note">Oil temperature (°C) of electricity transformer 1, hourly. Left of the
    divider: the last week of history the models see. Right: what each predicts vs. what happened.</div>
  </div>

  <div class="tiles" id="tiles"></div>

  <div class="card tablecard">
    <strong>Test MSE (standardized, multivariate) — lower is better</strong>
    <table id="results"></table>
    <div class="note">Published rows are the numbers reported in Zeng et&nbsp;al. 2023
    (<em>Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?</em>, AAAI). Same dataset,
    same split, same metric. Best per horizon in blue.</div>
  </div>

  <footer>
    Built by <a href="https://github.com/UsmarHaider">Usmar Haider</a> ·
    <a href="https://github.com/UsmarHaider/tinycast">source &amp; write-up on GitHub</a> ·
    data: <a href="https://github.com/zhouhaoyi/ETDataset">ETDataset</a>
  </footer>
</div>

<script src="shim.js"></script>
<script>
"use strict";
const SERIES = [
  { key: "nlinear",        label: "NLinear",        css: "--s1", on: true  },
  { key: "seasonal_naive", label: "Seasonal naive", css: "--s2", on: true  },
  { key: "dlinear",        label: "DLinear",        css: "--s3", on: false },
  { key: "tcn",            label: "TCN",            css: "--s4", on: true  },
  { key: "lstm",           label: "LSTM",           css: "--s5", on: false },
  { key: "persistence",    label: "Persistence",    css: "--s6", on: false },
];
const NICE = { persistence: "Persistence", seasonal_naive: "Seasonal naive", linear: "Linear",
               nlinear: "NLinear", dlinear: "DLinear", tcn: "TCN", lstm: "LSTM" };
const state = { horizon: 96, index: 0, meta: null, sample: null, hist_show: 168 };

const $ = (id) => document.getElementById(id);
const css = (v) => getComputedStyle(document.documentElement).getPropertyValue(v).trim();

async function api(path) {
  const r = await fetch(path);
  if (!r.ok) throw new Error(path + " → " + r.status);
  return r.json();
}

function fail(msg) { const e = $("err"); e.style.display = "block"; e.textContent = msg; }

function segButtons() {
  const seg = $("horizon-seg");
  seg.innerHTML = "";
  for (const h of state.meta.horizons) {
    const b = document.createElement("button");
    b.textContent = h + " h";
    b.className = h === state.horizon ? "on" : "";
    b.onclick = () => { state.horizon = h; clampIndex(); refresh(); };
    seg.appendChild(b);
  }
}

function clampIndex() {
  const n = state.meta.n_windows[String(state.horizon)];
  state.index = Math.min(state.index, n - 1);
  $("win").max = n - 1;
}

function chips(available) {
  const box = $("chips");
  box.innerHTML = "";
  const hist = document.createElement("span");
  hist.className = "chip fixed";
  hist.innerHTML = '<span class="dot" style="--c:var(--ink)"></span>history';
  const act = document.createElement("span");
  act.className = "chip fixed";
  act.innerHTML = '<span class="dot dash" style="--c:var(--ink)"></span>actual';
  box.append(hist, act);
  for (const s of SERIES) {
    if (!available.includes(s.key)) continue;
    const b = document.createElement("button");
    b.className = "chip" + (s.on ? "" : " off");
    b.innerHTML = `<span class="dot" style="--c:var(${s.css})"></span>${s.label}`;
    b.onclick = () => { s.on = !s.on; draw(); };
    box.appendChild(b);
  }
}

function draw() {
  const d = state.sample;
  if (!d) return;
  const H = d.horizon, histN = state.hist_show;
  const hist = d.history_ot.slice(-histN);
  const W = 940, Hgt = 400, m = { t: 16, r: 14, b: 30, l: 46 };
  const iw = W - m.l - m.r, ih = Hgt - m.t - m.b;
  const x = (i) => m.l + ((i + histN) / (histN + H - 1)) * iw; // i in [-histN, H-1]
  const active = SERIES.filter((s) => s.on && d.forecasts[s.key]);
  let vals = hist.concat(d.actual_ot);
  for (const s of active) vals = vals.concat(d.forecasts[s.key]);
  const lo = Math.min(...vals), hi = Math.max(...vals);
  const pad = (hi - lo) * 0.08 + 0.01;
  const y = (v) => m.t + (1 - (v - (lo - pad)) / (hi - lo + 2 * pad)) * ih;

  const line = (pts, color, dash, wdt) => {
    const dstr = pts.map((p, i) => (i ? "L" : "M") + p[0].toFixed(1) + " " + p[1].toFixed(1)).join("");
    return `<path d="${dstr}" fill="none" stroke="${color}" stroke-width="${wdt || 2}"` +
           (dash ? ` stroke-dasharray="${dash}"` : "") + ` stroke-linejoin="round"/>`;
  };
  let g = "";
  // gridlines + y labels
  const ticks = 5;
  for (let i = 0; i <= ticks; i++) {
    const v = lo - pad + ((hi - lo + 2 * pad) * i) / ticks;
    g += `<line x1="${m.l}" x2="${W - m.r}" y1="${y(v)}" y2="${y(v)}" stroke="${css("--grid")}" stroke-width="1"/>`;
    g += `<text x="${m.l - 8}" y="${y(v) + 4}" text-anchor="end" font-size="11" fill="${css("--muted")}">${v.toFixed(1)}°</text>`;
  }
  // x labels every 48h
  for (let t = -histN; t <= H; t += 48) {
    g += `<text x="${x(t)}" y="${Hgt - 8}" text-anchor="middle" font-size="11" fill="${css("--muted")}">${t === 0 ? "now" : (t > 0 ? "+" + t : t) + "h"}</text>`;
  }
  // forecast-start divider
  g += `<line x1="${x(0)}" x2="${x(0)}" y1="${m.t}" y2="${Hgt - m.b}" stroke="${css("--axis")}" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>`;
  // history + actual
  g += line(hist.map((v, i) => [x(i - histN), y(v)]), css("--ink"), null, 2);
  g += line(d.actual_ot.map((v, i) => [x(i), y(v)]), css("--ink"), "5 4", 2);
  // forecasts
  for (const s of active) g += line(d.forecasts[s.key].map((v, i) => [x(i), y(v)]), css(s.css), null, 2);
  $("chart").innerHTML = g + `<rect id="hit" x="${m.l}" y="${m.t}" width="${iw}" height="${ih}" fill="transparent"/>`;
  hover(x, histN, H, hist, active);
}

function hover(xf, histN, H, hist, active) {
  const svg = $("chart"), tip = $("tip"), box = $("chartbox");
  const d = state.sample;
  svg.onmousemove = (ev) => {
    const pt = svg.createSVGPoint(); pt.x = ev.clientX; pt.y = ev.clientY;
    const p = pt.matrixTransform(svg.getScreenCTM().inverse());
    const t = Math.round(((p.x - 46) / (940 - 46 - 14)) * (histN + H - 1) - histN);
    if (t < -histN || t >= H) { tip.style.display = "none"; return; }
    let rows = `<div class="row"><span class="name">${t >= 0 ? "+" + t + "h" : t + "h"}</span></div>`;
    if (t < 0) {
      rows += `<div class="row"><span class="name">history</span><span class="val">${hist[t + histN].toFixed(1)}°C</span></div>`;
    } else {
      rows += `<div class="row"><span class="name">actual</span><span class="val">${d.actual_ot[t].toFixed(1)}°C</span></div>`;
      for (const s of active)
        rows += `<div class="row"><span class="name" style="color:var(${s.css})">${s.label}</span><span class="val">${d.forecasts[s.key][t].toFixed(1)}°C</span></div>`;
    }
    tip.innerHTML = rows;
    tip.style.display = "block";
    const r = box.getBoundingClientRect();
    const tx = ev.clientX - r.left + 14, ty = ev.clientY - r.top - 10;
    tip.style.left = Math.min(tx, r.width - tip.offsetWidth - 6) + "px";
    tip.style.top = ty + "px";
  };
  svg.onmouseleave = () => { tip.style.display = "none"; };
}

function tiles() {
  const res = state.meta.results, box = $("tiles");
  const ours = res.models, pub = res.published || {};
  const h = "96";
  const nl = ours.nlinear?.[h]?.mse, inf = pub["Informer (2021)"]?.[h]?.mse;
  const tls = [];
  if (nl != null && inf != null)
    tls.push(["NLinear vs Informer, h=96", Math.round((1 - nl / inf) * 100) + "% lower MSE",
              `${nl.toFixed(3)} vs ${inf.toFixed(3)}`]);
  tls.push(["Winning model size", "32k params", "one 336×96 matrix + bias"]);
  const otm = res.ot_mae_celsius_h96;
  if (otm) tls.push(["Oil-temp error, 4 days out", otm.mae_c + " °C MAE", NICE[otm.model] + ", horizon 96 h"]);
  const sn = ours.seasonal_naive?.[h]?.mse;
  if (sn != null && inf != null && sn < inf)
    tls.push(["Seasonal naive vs Informer", "baseline wins", `${sn.toFixed(3)} vs ${inf.toFixed(3)} MSE`]);
  box.innerHTML = tls.map(([k, v, s]) =>
    `<div class="tile"><div class="k">${k}</div><div class="v">${v}</div><div class="s">${s}</div></div>`).join("");
}

function table() {
  const res = state.meta.results, horizons = res.horizons;
  const rows = [];
  const ordered = ["persistence", "seasonal_naive", "linear", "nlinear", "dlinear", "tcn", "lstm"];
  for (const k of ordered) if (res.models[k]) rows.push([NICE[k] + " (ours)", res.models[k], false]);
  for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(res.published || {})) rows.push([k, v, true]);
  const best = {};
  for (const h of horizons) {
    best[h] = Math.min(...rows.map(([, v]) => v[String(h)]?.mse ?? Infinity));
  }
  let html = "<tr><th>model</th>" + horizons.map((h) => `<th>h=${h}</th>`).join("") + "</tr>";
  let sep = false;
  for (const [name, v, pub] of rows) {
    const cls = (pub ? "pub" : "") + (pub && !sep ? " sep" : "");
    if (pub) sep = true;
    html += `<tr class="${cls}"><td>${name}</td>` + horizons.map((h) => {
      const c = v[String(h)];
      if (!c) return "<td>–</td>";
      return `<td class="${c.mse === best[h] ? "best" : ""}">${c.mse.toFixed(3)}</td>`;
    }).join("") + "</tr>";
  }
  $("results").innerHTML = html;
}

async function refresh() {
  segButtons();
  const n = state.meta.n_windows[String(state.horizon)];
  $("win").max = n - 1; $("win").value = state.index;
  $("winlab").textContent = state.index + " / " + (n - 1);
  try {
    state.sample = await api(`api/sample?index=${state.index}&horizon=${state.horizon}`);
  } catch (e) { fail("Could not load sample: " + e.message); return; }
  $("t0").textContent = "forecast starts " + state.sample.t0;
  chips(Object.keys(state.sample.forecasts));
  draw();
}

(async function init() {
  try { state.meta = await api("api/meta"); } catch (e) { fail("Could not reach the API: " + e.message); return; }
  const q = new URLSearchParams(location.search);
  const n = state.meta.n_windows[String(state.horizon)];
  state.index = q.has("sample") ? Math.min(+q.get("sample"), n - 1) : 480 % n;
  $("win").oninput = (e) => { state.index = +e.target.value; refresh(); };
  $("rand").onclick = () => { state.index = Math.floor(Math.random() * n); refresh(); };
  tiles(); table();
  await refresh();
  window.matchMedia("(prefers-color-scheme: dark)").addEventListener("change", draw);
})();
</script>
</body>
</html>