confluence.py

"""Multi-timeframe confluence analyzer.

Synthesises all Price Action evidence into a single A+/A/B/C/D grade.

Scoring weights:
  Structure  35% — EMA alignment, trend direction across timeframes
  Patterns   25% — Candlestick + chart patterns (from patterns.py + chart_patterns.py)
  OB/FVG     20% — Order blocks and fair value gaps (from order_blocks.py)
  Momentum   20% — RSI position, funding rate, volume

Grade mapping (0–100 composite):
  A+  85–100  All evidence aligned — highest conviction entry
  A   70–84   Strong alignment — good entry
  B   55–69   Moderate — proceed with caution
  C   40–54   Mixed signals — wait for clarity
  D   0–39    Conflicting — avoid

All returns are JSON-serialisable.
"""
from __future__ import annotations


# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Grade helpers
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

def _score_to_grade(score: float) -> str:
    """Map 0–100 composite score to letter grade."""
    if score >= 85:
        return "A+"
    if score >= 70:
        return "A"
    if score >= 55:
        return "B"
    if score >= 40:
        return "C"
    return "D"


def grade_to_color(grade: str) -> str:
    """Map grade to hex colour for UI rendering."""
    return {
        "A+": "#059669",   # strong green
        "A":  "#10b981",   # green
        "B":  "#d97706",   # amber
        "C":  "#f97316",   # orange
        "D":  "#dc2626",   # red
    }.get(grade, "#8c95b2")


# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Subscoring helpers
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

def _structure_score(tf_data: dict, direction: str) -> tuple[float, list[str]]:
    """0–100 score for EMA structure + S/R alignment."""
    notes = []
    h1  = tf_data.get("1h",  {})
    m15 = tf_data.get("15m", {})
    if "error" in h1 or "error" in m15:
        return 40.0, ["insufficient structure data"]

    s1h  = h1.get("structure",  "range")
    s15m = m15.get("structure", "range")
    dir_struct = "uptrend" if direction == "long" else "downtrend"

    if s1h == dir_struct and s15m == dir_struct:
        score = 90.0
        notes.append(f"Both 1h + 15m in {dir_struct} — maximum structure alignment")
    elif s1h == dir_struct:
        score = 70.0
        notes.append(f"1h {dir_struct} confirmed; 15m lagging — partial alignment")
    elif s15m == dir_struct:
        score = 55.0
        notes.append(f"15m in {dir_struct}; 1h not yet — lower timeframe lead")
    elif s1h == "range" and s15m == "range":
        score = 35.0
        notes.append("Both timeframes ranging — structure undefined")
    else:
        score = 20.0
        notes.append(f"Structure conflict: 1h {s1h} vs 15m {s15m} — counter-trend risk")

    # S/R bonus: reward if entry is close to support (long) or resistance (short)
    close = m15.get("close", 0)
    atr   = m15.get("atr14", 0)
    sup   = m15.get("support")
    res   = m15.get("resistance")
    if atr > 0 and close > 0:
        if direction == "long" and sup and abs(close - sup) <= atr:
            score = min(score + 8, 100)
            notes.append("Entry at support — tight risk location")
        elif direction == "short" and res and abs(close - res) <= atr:
            score = min(score + 8, 100)
            notes.append("Entry at resistance — tight risk location")

    return round(score, 1), notes


def _pattern_subscore(cs_patterns: list, cp_patterns: list,
                      direction: str) -> tuple[float, list[str]]:
    """0–100 score for candlestick + chart patterns in trade direction."""
    notes = []
    score = 50.0
    dir_signal = "bullish" if direction == "long" else "bearish"

    # Candlestick patterns
    aligned_cs   = [p for p in cs_patterns if p.get("signal") == dir_signal]
    opposing_cs  = [p for p in cs_patterns if p.get("signal") not in (dir_signal, "neutral")]
    for p in aligned_cs:
        strength = p.get("strength", 2)
        boost = {3: 15, 2: 10, 1: 5}.get(strength, 5)
        score = min(score + boost, 100)
        key = " (KEY)" if p.get("at_key_level") else ""
        notes.append(f"{p['name']}{key} — {p.get('signal','?')}")
    for p in opposing_cs:
        score = max(score - 12, 0)
        notes.append(f"⚠ {p['name']} opposes direction")

    # Chart patterns
    aligned_cp  = [p for p in cp_patterns if p.get("signal") == dir_signal]
    opp_cp_signal = "bearish" if direction == "long" else "bullish"
    opposing_cp = [p for p in cp_patterns if p.get("signal") == opp_cp_signal]
    for p in aligned_cp:
        stage_boost = {"confirmed": 20, "forming": 10, "broken": 5}.get(p.get("stage", "forming"), 10)
        score = min(score + stage_boost, 100)
        notes.append(f"{p['name']} ({p.get('stage','?')}) — {p.get('signal','?')}")
    for p in opposing_cp:
        score = max(score - 15, 0)
        notes.append(f"⚠ {p['name']} chart pattern opposes direction")

    if not cs_patterns and not cp_patterns:
        notes.append("No patterns detected — structure only")

    return round(score, 1), notes


def _ob_subscore(ob_result: dict, direction: str) -> tuple[float, list[str]]:
    """0–100 score for order block / FVG context."""
    notes = []
    score = 50.0

    ob_below = ob_result.get("nearest_ob_below")
    ob_above = ob_result.get("nearest_ob_above")
    fvg_below = ob_result.get("nearest_fvg_below")
    fvg_above = ob_result.get("nearest_fvg_above")

    if direction == "long":
        if ob_below:
            if ob_below["status"] == "fresh":
                score += 30; notes.append(f"Fresh bullish OB below — institutional support zone")
            elif ob_below["status"] == "tested":
                score += 18; notes.append(f"Tested bullish OB below — proven support, higher risk")
            elif ob_below["status"] == "breaker":
                score -= 20; notes.append(f"⚠ Breaker block below — former support is now resistance")
        if fvg_above:
            score += 10; notes.append("Unfilled bullish FVG above — price magnet target")
        if ob_above and ob_above["status"] == "fresh":
            score -= 10; notes.append("Fresh bearish OB above — resistance cap")
    elif direction == "short":
        if ob_above:
            if ob_above["status"] == "fresh":
                score += 30; notes.append(f"Fresh bearish OB above — institutional resistance zone")
            elif ob_above["status"] == "tested":
                score += 18; notes.append(f"Tested bearish OB above — proven resistance")
            elif ob_above["status"] == "breaker":
                score -= 20; notes.append(f"⚠ Breaker block above — former resistance is now support")
        if fvg_below:
            score += 10; notes.append("Unfilled bearish FVG below — price magnet target")
        if ob_below and ob_below["status"] == "fresh":
            score -= 10; notes.append("Fresh bullish OB below — support floor")

    ob_summary = ob_result.get("summary", "")
    if ob_summary and ob_summary != "No significant OB or FVG in range":
        notes.append(ob_summary)

    return round(max(0, min(100, score)), 1), notes


def _momentum_subscore(tf_data: dict, direction: str,
                       funding_rate=None) -> tuple[float, list[str]]:
    """0–100 score for RSI + volume + funding momentum."""
    notes = []
    m15 = tf_data.get("15m", {})
    h1  = tf_data.get("1h",  {})
    rsi = m15.get("rsi14", 50.0)
    vol_ratio = m15.get("vol_ratio")
    score = 50.0

    # RSI
    if direction == "long":
        if rsi <= 30:
            score += 25; notes.append(f"RSI {rsi:.1f} — oversold, strong long momentum")
        elif rsi <= 45:
            score += 12; notes.append(f"RSI {rsi:.1f} — below midline, bullish bias")
        elif rsi >= 70:
            score -= 15; notes.append(f"RSI {rsi:.1f} — overbought, long momentum stretched")
        else:
            notes.append(f"RSI {rsi:.1f} — neutral zone")
    else:  # short
        if rsi >= 70:
            score += 25; notes.append(f"RSI {rsi:.1f} — overbought, strong short momentum")
        elif rsi >= 55:
            score += 12; notes.append(f"RSI {rsi:.1f} — above midline, bearish bias")
        elif rsi <= 30:
            score -= 15; notes.append(f"RSI {rsi:.1f} — oversold, short momentum stretched")
        else:
            notes.append(f"RSI {rsi:.1f} — neutral zone")

    # Volume
    if vol_ratio is not None:
        if vol_ratio >= 1.5:
            score += 10; notes.append(f"Volume {vol_ratio:.1f}× average — strong confirmation")
        elif vol_ratio < 0.7:
            score -= 8; notes.append(f"Volume {vol_ratio:.1f}× average — weak, low conviction")

    # Funding rate
    if funding_rate is not None:
        fr_pct = funding_rate * 100
        if direction == "long" and fr_pct < -0.02:
            score += 8; notes.append(f"Funding negative ({fr_pct:.4f}%) — short squeeze potential")
        elif direction == "long" and fr_pct > 0.05:
            score -= 8; notes.append(f"Funding high ({fr_pct:.4f}%) — longs crowded")
        elif direction == "short" and fr_pct > 0.05:
            score += 8; notes.append(f"Funding high ({fr_pct:.4f}%) — longs over-extended")
        elif direction == "short" and fr_pct < -0.02:
            score -= 8; notes.append(f"Funding negative ({fr_pct:.4f}%) — shorts crowded")

    return round(max(0, min(100, score)), 1), notes


# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Public API
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

def analyze_confluence(tf_data: dict,
                       cs_patterns_15m: list,
                       cs_patterns_1h: list,
                       chart_patterns: list,
                       ob_result: dict,
                       direction: str,
                       funding_rate=None) -> dict:
    """Compute full multi-TF confluence analysis.

    Args:
        tf_data:          Output of analyze_timeframe() for each TF.
        cs_patterns_15m:  Candlestick patterns from 15m df.
        cs_patterns_1h:   Candlestick patterns from 1h df.
        chart_patterns:   Chart patterns from detect_chart_patterns().
        ob_result:        Output of detect_order_blocks().
        direction:        "long" | "short"
        funding_rate:     Raw funding rate float or None.

    Returns dict:
        direction            str
        confluence_score     float (0–100)
        grade                str (A+/A/B/C/D)
        grade_color          str (hex)
        confirming           list[str]
        conflicting          list[str]
        structure_score      float
        pattern_score        float
        ob_score             float
        momentum_score       float
        top_cs_pattern       dict | None
        top_chart_pattern    dict | None
        ob_context           str
        pattern_conflict     bool
    """
    # Combine 15m + 1h candlestick patterns (15m patterns take priority)
    all_cs = cs_patterns_15m + [p for p in cs_patterns_1h
                                  if not any(q["name"] == p["name"] for q in cs_patterns_15m)]

    # Sub-scores (each 0–100)
    s_struct, n_struct = _structure_score(tf_data, direction)
    s_pats,   n_pats   = _pattern_subscore(all_cs, chart_patterns, direction)
    s_ob,     n_ob     = _ob_subscore(ob_result, direction)
    s_mom,    n_mom    = _momentum_subscore(tf_data, direction, funding_rate)

    # Weighted composite (35 / 25 / 20 / 20)
    composite = (
        0.35 * s_struct +
        0.25 * s_pats   +
        0.20 * s_ob     +
        0.20 * s_mom
    )
    composite = round(max(0.0, min(100.0, composite)), 1)
    grade = _score_to_grade(composite)
    color = grade_to_color(grade)

    # Split notes into confirming vs conflicting
    dir_label = "bullish" if direction == "long" else "bearish"
    confirming  = [n for n in n_struct + n_pats + n_ob + n_mom
                   if "⚠" not in n and "conflict" not in n.lower()
                      and "opposing" not in n.lower()]
    conflicting = [n for n in n_struct + n_pats + n_ob + n_mom
                   if "⚠" in n or "conflict" in n.lower() or "opposing" in n.lower()]

    # Best patterns to surface on the card
    dir_signal = "bullish" if direction == "long" else "bearish"
    top_cs  = next((p for p in all_cs      if p.get("signal") == dir_signal), None)
    top_cp  = next((p for p in chart_patterns if p.get("signal") == dir_signal), None)

    # Pattern direction conflict flag
    opp_signal = "bearish" if direction == "long" else "bullish"
    has_opposing_cs = any(p.get("signal") == opp_signal for p in all_cs)
    has_opposing_cp = any(p.get("signal") == opp_signal for p in chart_patterns)
    pattern_conflict = has_opposing_cs or has_opposing_cp

    return {
        "direction":         direction,
        "confluence_score":  composite,
        "grade":             grade,
        "grade_color":       color,
        "confirming":        confirming[:6],
        "conflicting":       conflicting[:4],
        "structure_score":   s_struct,
        "pattern_score":     s_pats,
        "ob_score":          s_ob,
        "momentum_score":    s_mom,
        "top_cs_pattern":    top_cs,
        "top_chart_pattern": top_cp,
        "ob_context":        ob_result.get("summary", ""),
        "pattern_conflict":  pattern_conflict,
    }